The Contenders
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 25, 2025, we look at whether a new growing blockbuster from Bad Bunny will claim the top spot, or whether it will be lapped by the shipment of a beloved Taylor Swift live set.
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Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): The latest LP from Puerto Rican global superstar Bad Bunny might have already been the No. 1 album in the country had it enjoyed a full tracking week. But due to its Sunday release (Jan. 5), two days into tracking, it pulled up just short, posting 122,000 first-week units and falling behind Lil Baby’s WHAM set, which bowed at No. 1 with 140,000 units.
The good news for Fotos is that it keeps growing. While the album’s first-day numbers on streaming were solid but unexceptional, they’ve ballooned nearly every day since – an extremely unusual trajectory for a new release by an established superstar – to the point where the album now claims the top three spots on both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. (Both rankings are led by the viral smash “DtMF,” which could also challenge for a top spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week.)
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The runaway streaming success of Fotos, combined with it now getting the benefits of a full week of tracking (as well as a heavy week of promo, including a recent Subway Busking performance with Jimmy Fallon) means that the set should have an even better showing in its second frame – perhaps more in line with the opening week of Bunny’s previous album, 2023’s Nadie Sabie Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, which managed 184,000 units in its Billboard 200-topping debut week.
Taylor Swift, Lover (Live in Paris) (Republic): The City of Lover live show that Taylor Swift played in Paris in 2019 has long held a special place in the hearts of Swifties – both for its intimate acoustic versions of many highlights from 2019’s Lover set, and for the fact that it was one of the final full live shows Swift performed for some years, after her planned Lover Fest mini-tour was canceled in the wake of the 2020 COVID pandemic and she was forced to regroup for 2023-24’s world-conquering Eras Tour. In 2020, the set was aired as an ABC live special, followed by the limited-edition release a double-LP version of the set in 2023, entitled Lover (Live From Paris), collecting eight performances from the gig.
That release was limited to 13,000 copies, and of course sold out, resulting in a No. 58 bow on the Billboard 200. The set was re-released this Jan. 7, however, as a 72-hour webstore exclusive, and is expected to sell a whole lot more than that this time around. The impact it has on this upcoming Billboard 200 will depend on when the copies of it officially ship – her webstore noted that all copies would ship “on or before Jan. 20,” but with many Swifties apparently having already received their copies, it seems likely to be a real contender for next week.
Could it beat out Bad Bunny’s burgeoning blockbuster? Despite her 14 career No. 1s on the Billboard 200, Swift has never reached the apex with a live set – with 2020’s No. 3-peaking Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions coming closest. But with the combination of the set’s reputation among Swifties, those fans’ love for collecting her records (with Taylor claiming five of the top 10 best-selling vinyl LPs of 2024) the half-decade wait since the special initially aired and how she’s gotten exponentially bigger in the last few years… as with nearly everything Taylor Swift-related in 2025, it’s probably not a great idea to bet against her.
Lil Baby, WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): Last week’s No. 1 seems pretty sure for some degree of fall-off in its second frame. Its opening number of 140,000 got a big lift from direct-to-consumer album sales (in CD and digital download form), helping it get 50,000 of those first-week units, which is almost always much lower in an album’s second week. And on streaming, Lil Baby‘s set is clearly slipping – it’s still littering the Apple Music chart, but with only one song (the Future- and Young Thug-featuring “Dum, Dumb and Dumber”) in the top 20, and it claims just two total entries in Spotify’s 200-position Daily Top Songs USA chart. That’s not shocking by any means – most big streaming albums do experience a big drop-off in week two – but it just shows how remarkable it is that Fotos is still expanding like it is. (WHAM should still get a small boost on streaming from the Friday release of its deluxe edition – featuring four bonus tracks – to DSPs, having previously been available only for purchase as part of the deluxe on the Motown webstore.)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 18, 2025, we look at whether new releases from Lil Baby or Bad Bunny can unseat a reigning blockbuster that dates back to 2022.
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Lil Baby, WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): One of the biggest names in music at the turn of the 2020s, Atlanta rapper Lil Baby has been less dominant on the charts the past couple years but still draws a good deal of attention every time out. On Friday (Jan. 2), he released his new set WHAM – not named after the ‘80s U.K. duo who just hit a new peak of No. 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 with the holiday staple “Last Christmas,” but an acronym standing for Who Hard as Me – with 15 brand new cuts, including features from fellow ATL superstars Future, Young Thug and 21 Savage and other big names like Travis Scott, GloRilla and Rod Wave.
The set is off to a strong start on streaming – particularly on Apple Music, where it continues to litter the top 100 of its real-time chart five days after release, while also claiming the No. 1 spot with the Future and Thug teamup “Dum, Dumb and Dumber.” It should also be helped by sales of the set’s deluxe digital edition on Baby’s webstore available for $4.99, which boasts four new songs not currently available on DSPs, including another Future collab in “99.” (He also has a standard CD available for purchase at his webstore, along with a couple “Fan Packs” that include additional merch, offering a discount on the CD if you buy the merch along with it.)
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It should all add up to WHAM having a pretty good chance to make it big on the Billboard 200 next week. If it can claim the top spot, it would be Lil Baby’s fourth consecutive visit there this decade, after previously hitting No. 1 with 2020’s My Turn, 2021’s Lil Durk teamup The Voice of the Heroes and 2022’s It’s Only Me.
Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): Another one of the biggest stars of the early 2020s, Bad Bunny dropped his new album Debí Tirar Más Fotos (I Should Have Taken More Photos) on Sunday (Jan. 5). The 17-track LP – which contains just a handful of collaborations, and none with household-name artists – has been hailed by critics as a “homecoming” for the artist born Benito Antonio Martinez Ocasio, who spends much of the set dabbling in genres native to his home country of Puerto Rico like salsa and plena.
Fotos has seen robust early returns on streaming, though it has yet to produce a clear breakout hit, and neither of its advance tracks (“El Clúb” or “Pitorro de Coco”) made much of an impression on the Hot 100 upon their release. The album is also currently available for physical release, with only a digital version available on his webstore and iTunes for $4.99. Its debut numbers will also certainly be dampened by the set’s Sunday release, which means it will be missing two days’ worth of consumption from its first week of tracking.
Still, Bad Bunny will always be a factor in the Billboard 200 albums race when he releases a new LP. Like Lil Baby, he has sent his last three albums this decade to No. 1 on the chart: 2020’s El Último Tour del Mundo, 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti and 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana.
SZA, SOS (Top Dawg/RCA): SZA’s R&B sophomore blockbuster SOS had already been a 10-week No. 1 on the Billboard 200 from late 2022 to early 2023, and one of the most acclaimed and beloved albums of the first half of the 2020s. But at the beginning of this year, SOS returned to the top of the chart, thanks to a boost provided by the release of its deluxe edition, titled LANA. The re-release featured 14 totally new cuts (as well as the previously released Hot 100 top 10 hit “Saturn”), including “30 for 30,” a collaboration with her upcoming stadium tour co-headliner Kendrick Lamar.
The set has now reigned on the Billboard 200 for the first two chart weeks of the calendar year, with six-figure units posted in each frame. Those numbers will likely slip a little in the third week of release for LANA, but considering SOS remained one of the top-streamed albums for years after its release even before she dropped the deluxe edition – it was still No. 15 on the Billboard 200 in the final chart week of 2024 – it should still be a very strong performer on the chart next week, and hardly a low bar to clear for either Baby or Bunny.
Welcome to Billboard Pro’s Trending Up newsletter, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip.
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This week: Shaboozey’s SNL appearance gets him that much closer to a second solo hit, an early MGMT clip helps one of their classic singles go viral again and a new dance trends revives a 2Pac Hot 100-topper.
“Good News” on a Saturday Night for Shaboozey’s Second Hit
Shaboozey has been nearly unavoidable in the past few months, with appearances at the CMA Awards and in the Grammy nominations and of course on the Billboard Hot 100, where his four-quadrant smash “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” reigned for a record-tying 19 weeks over the late summer and autumn. Now, he can add a Saturday Night Live stamp to his 2024 passport, as the country singer-songwriter made his debut on the weekly NBC comedy and live music institution on Nov. 30, performing both “A Bar Song” and his new single, “Good News” — the latter of which recently debuted at No. 71 on the Hot 100.
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As “Good News” aims to become Shaboozey’s second big crossover hit in a row, the boost it got from his emotional SNL performance should undoubtedly help. “Good News” was up a solid 13% in U.S. on-demand audio streams to 1.5 million across the Sunday and Monday following his appearance from the same period the week before, according to Luminate — but more notably, it was up 424% in sales to over 2,200 over that same two-day period. “A Bar Song,” which has led Digital Song Sales for 15 non-consecutive weeks already, was also up in sales over that timespan — rising 86% to nearly 2,600 across the two days — as the pair of Shaboozey singles claimed the top two spots on the real-time iTunes chart.
It may not boost “Good News” to a new Hot 100 peak next week, as the song struggles to get its head above the flood of holiday songs crashing onto the chart in recent weeks — but it bodes well for the song finding its way as a jukebox singalong in its own right by early 2025. — ANDREW UNTERBERGER
2Pac’s Former Hot 100 No. 1 Sees TikTok Resurgence
Two weeks after Kendrick Lamar’s GNX brought renewed attention to “Made N—az” (K.Dot flipped the 1997 track on “Reincarnated”), another 2Pac song is seeing notable streaming gains. Thanks to an infectious new dance trend featuring choreography from TikTok creators @roniahalynn_ and @donthurtemniaa, 2Pac’s K-Ci and JoJo-assisted “How Do U U Want It” is up over 102% in streaming activity over the past four weeks, according to Luminate.
Official on-demand U.S. streams for “How Do U Want It” were hovering around 900,000 before user @roniahalynn_ posted her version of the dance on Nov. 15. By the end of that week, “How Do U Want It” rose 14%, pulling over 1.02 million streams during the period of Nov. 15-21. User @roniahalynn_’s original clip has since collected over 1.9 million views on TikTok, and the sound she used now boasts over 209,000 posts. An additional unofficial sound using bits of 2Pac’s track plays in over 138,000 posts, while another unofficial sound plays in nearly 50,000 posts. The official “How Do U Want It” sound plays in just under 10,000 posts.
During the period of Nov. 22-28, streaming activity for “How Do U Want It” increased a whopping 44% to over 1.48 million streams. That figure rose a further 16% the following week (Nov. 29-Dec. 5), to over 1.7 million official on-demand U.S. streams. Notably, user @donthurtemniaa’s original dance trend is soundtracked by 22Daboat’s “Munyun.”
Already having entered the TikTok Billboard Top 50 at No. 16 (dated Dec. 7), expect 2Pac’s former Billboard Hot 100 chart-topper to continue rising in streams as the dance trend grows. – KYLE DENIS
MGMT Playing “Kids” as Kids: Old Footage Spurs New Streaming Gains
In 2003, Andrew VanWyngarden and Ben Goldwasser were students at Wesleyan University, performing tiny gigs on campus under the band name The Management. The duo would eventually re-brand as MGMT, become a defining group of the late-‘00s indie boom, score a best new artist Grammy nomination, and move on to a winding, often quite fruitful recording career, including this year’s album Loss of Life. But this week, the Internet is enjoying an unexpected look at those early college shows, thanks to some newly discovered footage of The Artist Eventually Known as MGMT performing their undeniable 2008 synth-pop single “Kids.”
A video uploaded by the YouTube user Rad Scientist on Nov. 28 features VanWyngarden and Ben Goldwasser playing an outdoor daytime gig for their friends in front of a brick wall, running around and sprawling across the ground when they’re not presenting an early (but mostly intact) version of the song that would become “Kids.” The clip went viral last week, and the unexpected trip down memory lane helped “Kids” grow by 60% in weekly U.S. on-demand streams, from 1.11 million in the week ending Nov. 28 to 1.78 million the following week, according to Luminate. The streaming uptick will likely last a few weeks, but who knows? Indie nostalgia is a powerful thing — maybe we get unearthed footage of Vampire Weekend performing “Campus” on campus next. – JASON LIPSHUTZ
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 21, 2024, we look at Taylor Swift’s recently resumed reign on the chart, and whether the solo bow of a K-pop star can challenge it.
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Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): Since late August, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department album has been stuck at 15 weeks at No. 1 – still the longest run of both Swift’s career and of any 2024 album. But now, its reign has resumed, thanks in large part to the physical release of the album’s 31-track Anthology edition – which had never been previously available for purchase besides in digital form – as a Target in-store exclusive on both CD and vinyl, with four additional bonus tracks (which had previously been released in other alternative versions of the album).
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The album sold 368,000 copies last tracking week (ending Dec. 5) – split nearly evenly between CD and vinyl purchases – and moved 405,000 units overall, according to Luminate. That was good not only for the biggest single-week number posted by an album since Poets itself moved 439,000 in its second week of release, but also a bigger number than any non-Swift artist has managed in 2024 outside of Beyoncé, whose Cowboy Carter debuted with 407,000 units in April.
That number probably won’t be as sizeable this week, but the drop off might not be as steep as some other albums that get big post-release bumps from physical drops. Swift also released Poets for order from Target.com shortly after the in-store release, with those copies impacting this current tracking week (and thus next week’s Billboard 200). So don’t be surprised if the album sells well into the six digits again this week – and perhaps gets Swift to a 17th week at No. 1 for Poets, moving it just two weeks shy of Morgan Wallen’s 2020s-best 19 weeks at No. 1 with 2023’s One Thing at a Time.
ROSÉ, Rosie (The Black Label/Atlantic): One of the year’s most-anticipated solo debuts comes from BLACKPINK breakout star ROSÉ, with her first official solo LP Rosie. The set obviously comes pre-blessed with a true breakout hit in the Bruno Mars collab “APT.,” which debuted at No. 8 on the Billboard Hot 100 – a higher peak than ROSÉ had previously reached, with or without her superstar group – and has also topped the Global 200 for seven weeks and counting.
Mars is the only featured artist on the album’s 12-song tracklist, but the writer and producer credits are littered with recognizable names: Amy Allen, Cirkuit, Rock City, Sarah Aarons, D’Mile, Omer Fedi, Emily Warren and Greg Kurstin all among them. Mars himself even shows up a second time, as a co-writer on “Number One Girl,” the album’s lead track and second single. Everything points to the album being a big priority for her Atlantic label, and a set likely to launch ROSÉ to true solo stardom.
A No. 1 bow on the Billboard 200 may be a tougher ask, however, with Swift’s blockbuster album still doing the kind of numbers it is. Nonetheless, ROSÉ is expected to stream well – helped in no small part by “APT.,” which is still in the top 20 of the Streaming Songs chart even following an avalanche of Christmas classics and new Kendrick Lamar songs taking over the listing – and sell in robust numbers, with more than 15 different physical variants of the album made available across CD and vinyl, all coming with collectibles, some of which are randomized. (There’s also a digital edition on her webstore with an exclusive live version of “Number One Girl.”)
Sabrina Carpenter, Fruitcake (Island): Have you watched A Nonsense Christmas With Sabrina Carpenter yet on Netflix? If so, and if you’re still in the (slightly naughty) festive spirit afterwards, you might do well to revisit Carpenter’s Fruitcake EP, released in late 2023 — which included a holiday-themed spin on her breakout hit “Nonsense” new originals like “Santa Doesn’t Know You Like I Do” and “Cindy Lou Who” and even a version of the Irving Berlin perennial “White Christmas” (cheekily stylized “White Xmas”).
And more good news for you there: Fruitcake was also finally given wide physical release on Friday, with the album being issued on CD, cassette and vinyl – with three different variants of the latter, including a Target exclusive. (Previously, the set was only available in one color of vinyl on her webstore.) The “Queen of Christmas” title may already be spoken for by the artist currently claiming the Hot 100’s top spot, but perhaps room can be made for a new Princess.
TWICE, STRATEGY (JYP Entertainment): Star K-pop nonet TWICE has already topped the Billboard 200 once this year with March’s With YOU-th – though it’ll be a tougher mountain to climb in this packed week for the group’s seven-track latest STRATEGY. Nonetheless, the set – which features a guest verse from U.S. rap superstar Megan Thee Stallion on its title-track opener — should sell very well, with help from 15 different physical variants of the album across CD and vinyl formats. There are also a number of digital album variants available with “voice memo” bonus tracks exclusive to the group’s webstore.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Dec. 14, 2024, we dive into the post-Thanksgiving holiday rush and if it will overwhelm Kendrick Lamar’s Hot 100 dominance.
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Kendrick Lamar, “TV Off” and “Squabble Up” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar’s surprise-released GNX album debuts atop this week’s Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 7), while absolutely blanketing the Hot 100, with seven songs bowing in the top 10 and 10 in its top 15. That of course includes the No. 1-debuting “Squabble Up” — which halts Shaboozey’s chances of scoring an unprecedented 20th week at No. 1 with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” at least for now – as well as “TV Off” right behind it, and the SZA collab “Luther” at No. 3. (Lamar also has the Nos. 4 and 5 songs this week, making him one of just four artists in Hot 100 history to simultaneously claim an entire top five.)
Next week, though, Lamar may have two songs competing to be his top-ranking on the chart. The viral “TV Off” has overtaken “Squabble” on both the real-time Apple Music and Daily Top Songs USA Spotify rankings – as has “Luther,” though “TV” still leads both – but “Squabble” has the advantage of both a buzzy music video and an early lead on radio, with 4.6 million in all-format airplay Nov. 29-Dec. 2 (the first four days of the tracking week), according to Luminate. (The other two are also getting some airplay; “TV Off” is at 3.1 million and “Luther,” 2.6 million.)
All three, of course, will invariably be down in consumption as excitement wears off from the GNX surprise release. It’s only wearing off slowly, though – the album still claims the top three Daily Top Songs USA on Spotify, and incredibly, the entire top 10 on Apple Music’s real time chart – so both songs should still be in the mix.
Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): Mariah Season officially kicks off immediately after Halloween, but it always hits a new gear after Thanksgiving wraps. Sure enough, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” has been jing-jing-jingling up the rankings on streaming, sales and radio this week — per building data, it’s the highest-ranking holiday song in all three Hot 100 metrics, with double-digit percentage gains expected in streaming and airplay. The song also returns to the Hot 100’s top 10 this week, at No. 10.
If it can’t capture the top spot next week – and it will be a strong contender to do so — it may get a particular boost the week after, with the Dec. 6 (Friday) release of four physical versions of the 1994 single, in celebration of its 30th anniversary. If and when it does get to No. 1 on the Hot 100, it would mark the song’s 15th week atop the chart – leaving it just four shy of the all-time mark now shared by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” and Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” — meaning it might not be more than a holiday season or two away from putting that record in its sights.
Brenda Lee, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” (Decca/MCA Nashville/UMe) & Wham!, “Last Christmas” (Columbia/Legacy): Don’t forget about the artist who briefly snuck in past the Queen of Christmas last year: Brenda Lee, whose “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” finally became a Hot 100 No. 1 for the first time, over 60 years after its original release. Lee’s back this year, and while the promo push isn’t as hard for “Rockin’” as it was in 2023, the song is absolutely still in contention for the top spot, as it leads “All I Want” on Daily Top Songs USA and is right behind it on the overall Hot 100 (at No. 15 this week).
The third-highest Christmas song on this week’s Hot 100 (No. 18) belongs not to traditional holiday bronze medalist Bobby Helms – whose 1957 perennial “Jingle Bell Rock” has ultimately slotted into the No. 3 spot each year since 2019 – but to Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” possibly something of a sentimental favorite this year due to the 1984 synth-pop classic celebrating its 40th anniversary. And like “All I Want,” it may have an extra boost coming to it in the near future: Four physical versions of the single will be on sale on Dec. 13, the week after the Carey physicals, which could finally get it to that No. 3 spot on the next week’s chart – or even higher.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Dec. 7, 2024, we look at whether a major surprise drop is going to halt Shaboozey’s historic run atop the chart.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): The biggest country crossover hit of 2024 is now officially also the longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 of all-time – though it still has to share the status, at least for now, with Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road.” Both songs have now spent 19 weeks atop the Hot 100, with “Bar Song” holding off Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” this frame to tie the historic mark – helped by the added exposure from an eventful night at the CMA Awards, albeit one marked by more controversy than likely expected.
And it’s good for Shabozoey that he got his 19th week — because not only is the gap between “A Bar Song” and “Die With a Smile” continuing to shrink, but it’s also about to get very crowded at the top of the Hot 100.
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Kendrick Lamar, “Squabble Up” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar shocked the world on Friday (Nov. 22) by surprise-releasing his new album GNX at noon, with no previous indicators that an album (or really new music in general) was particularly imminent. The 12-track set follows his major moment in the spotlight earlier this year with his exceedingly high-profile Drake feud, which was essentially bookended by a pair of Hot 100-toppers: “Like That,” for which he appeared as a guest rapper on Future and Metro Boomin’s We Still Don’t Trust You album, and his own “Not Like Us,” an immediate hip-hop all-timer.
He may now get his third chart-topper of the year. Unsurprisingly, GNX has taken over on streaming services the past week – five days after its release, the album’s 12 tracks still hold all of the top 12 spots on Apple Music’s real time chart, and as of Tuesday, the album held the entire top eight on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing. The latter tally is led by “Squabble Up,” the album’s second track and presumptive lead single, which samples Debbie Deb’s 1984 freestyle classic “When I Hear Music” and also now has its own music video, released Monday.
“Squabble Up” is expected to lead the way for Kendrick’s new set on the chart next week – and with its robust streaming numbers, it should have a good chance at capturing the top spot – though it may have some competition from one of its album mates. “TV Off,” featuring Gunplay, has also emerged as a fan favorite from the LP, helped by its highly “Not Like Us”-reminiscent beat and viral-friendly “MUSTAAAARRRRRRD!” mid-song howl namechecking the song’s star producer. It’s taken over from “Squabble Up” atop Apple Music and sits just below it on Spotify – so if it keeps growing, it may be a real challenger to “Squabble” as soon as next week.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” has gotten within striking distance of the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot a couple times now, but has still yet to get over the hump to become Bruno Mars’ ninth No. 1 and Lady Gaga’s sixth on the chart. Unfortunately for the superstar duo, it’s only likely to get more difficult for “Smile” in the weeks to come, as even if it finally manages to close the gap for good with “A Bar Song,” it now has a glut of Kendrick Lamar songs and an avalanche of holiday songs looking to pass it on the chart. The song’s airplay is still slowly climbing, though – so if Bruno and Gaga have one more card up to play for the song, that top spot will likely be within reach for a little while still. (They should maybe wait until 2025 to use it at this point, though.)
Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): The Queen of Christmas is officially out of hibernation. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” re-enters the Hot 100 at No. 16 this week, and with Thanksgiving now right around the corner, the run-up to holiday season is soon to be in full bore. The preponderance of expected high debuts from Lamar’s GNX – it could launch half its tracklist in the top 10, possibly even more — might keep it on the edge of the top 10 for next week, but it’s only a matter of time before “All I Want” (which has led for 14 weeks since 2019) is challenging for the Hot 100 title in earnest.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 30, we look at whether the longest-running No. 1 of 2024 is about to tie the record the longest-running No. 1 of all-time.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s graduation week for “A Bar Song” on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, as its reign on top turns 18. The song is currently also trending toward a 17th week at No. 1 on Radio Songs – while this past week, it logged its 15th week atop the charts simultaneously, a new record for the longest such double-up since Radio Songs began in 1990, passing Mariah Carey’s “We Belong Together.” It has also been top 10 on the Digital Song Sales chart continuously since late April and Streaming Songs since May; it has been top 10 on all three Hot 100 component charts, including Radio Songs, concurrently each week since late June.
Is there any reason to think it’s due for any big falls or rises before next week, where it goes for its all-time record-tying 19th week at No. 1 – potentially matching Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” from five years earlier? Well, it slid more (though not a tremendous amount) this week in both streaming and radio airplay, though its sales were up 16%. The song’s overall momentum going into next week might depend on tonight’s (Nov. 20) CMA Awards, where Shaboozey is both a scheduled performer and a nominee in single of the year (for “Bar Song”) and best new artist.
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With a big, consumption-driving night at the CMAs tonight (and with next week’s charts reflecting consumption for the tracking week ending Thursday), the timing might be right next week for Shaboozey to etch his name in the Billboard history books.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite being a full three months into its lifespan at this point, “Die With a Smile” is still gaining chart momentum, as it hits the Radio Songs top five and No. 1 on Pop Airplay — Gaga‘s first time reaching those heights since 2011. The song’s streaming looks to be relatively even with last week, and it’s currently discounted to 69 cents on iTunes – as is “A Bar Song” — so it should be a pretty close battle next week on the Hot 100 between the two. If Shaboozey does get a CMAs bump, can Gaga and Bruno and their respective teams find a way before Friday to get their song a little extra juice? These questions might determine the winner in what should be a very closely monitored Hot 100 race next week.
Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): After topping Streaming Songs and hitting the Hot 100’s top 10 for the first time this week, “That’s So True” has become the first truly undeniable smash of Gracie Abrams’ career. The song’s streaming growth seems to be slowing this week — so it might not be challenging for No. 1 as soon as next week – but it’s gotten big enough that Abrams’ Interscope label has started to shift its radio promotional efforts (previously focused on “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry”) to it. If radio starts to pick up on “True” the way streaming has, there’s probably no ceiling on how high the song can continue to climb for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.
Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): As the weather cools down, Mariah Carey just starts getting stronger. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is starting to get its usual seasonal airplay, and jumps from 34 to 21 on this week’s Streaming Songs chart — the highest-ranking holiday entry — and should continue climbing in leaps and bounds in the weeks to come. “All I Want” could rechart on the Hot 100 — maybe even in the top 10 — as soon as next week, and from then it’s only a matter of time before it becomes the frontrunner to reign again during the holiday season, for the sixth calendar year in a row. And if it does… it’s already racked up 14 weeks total at No. 1, so it might not be long until it gets in the all-time record conversation with Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus (and soon enough, possibly Shaboozey).
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 23, we look at the chances of a quickly rising hit to halt the increasingly historic reign of the decade’s longest-running Hot 100 No. 1.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s 17 weeks now for Shaboozey atop the Hot 100, giving it sole possession of the title for longest-running No. 1 on the chart this decade, and second place all-time. The only song still standing in its way from standing alone atop all Hot 100 history: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which reigned for 19 weeks in 2019. (Coincidentally, Lil Nas X himself has announced the imminent release of his new song “Light Again,” though we’ll see if he still has the viral skills to be able to protect his own chart record — “J Christ,” his first release of 2024, topped out at No. 69.)
Anyway, it’s the same old story with “A Bar Song,” which is mostly slipping in its weekly performance – though it was actually up 2% in sales this week, according to Luminate, rebounding from No. 7 to No. 3 on the Digital Song Sales chart – but not falling fast enough for anything below it to really catch it. Airplay remains at the core of its stronghold, as the song spends a 15th week atop Radio Songs this week, with a 16th week in play next week. Meanwhile, the song might get a bit of a bump this week from the Friday-announced (Nov. 8) Grammy nominations, where Shaboozey is up for five nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for “Bar.”
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Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): For the first time in what feels like a long time, there’s a rising hit with legitimate momentum coming up from behind Shaboozey. Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” didn’t look like a world-beater when it debuted on Oct. 18 as one of four new songs on the deluxe edition of her breakout set The Secret of Us, but it’s continued to grow every week since its release, climbing 25-13 on the Hot 100 this week, and even passing “A Bar Song” on Streaming Songs, as it moves up to No. 4 on that chart. TikTok has helped, of course – the song debuts at No. 16 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 – as has a new official live version from Radio City Music Hall, released to DSPs last week. (It also helps to have the world’s biggest tour as a continued platform, as Abrams continues opening Canadian dates on Taylor Swift’s Eras trek through early December.)
Now, the song has overtaken the top spot on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time chart, while also climbing to just outside the top 10 on the iTunes chart. That streaming momentum could take it to the Hot 100’s 10 next week – and so far, it’s just kept climbing. The question of if it could end up being a legitimate threat to Shaboozey might come down to radio – of course, “A Bar Song” has a massive advantage there as the still-reigning most-played song in the country, while “That’s So True” is just beginning to draw airplay, behind Abrams’ other contemporaneous hits “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry.” But “True” is slowly gaining steam there, too, so if it continues to grow while “A Bar Song” shrinks, the gap could be closed before too long.
Can it catch Shaboozey in the next three weeks? Will it get there before the Holiday season rush begins? We’ll see, but if nothing else, it should make the race more exciting in the meantime.
Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): It’s a good week for Interscope on the charts, as between Abrams, Lady Gaga and Billie Eilish, the label is likely to claim three of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100. The latter two artists are also likely beneficiaries of Friday’s Grammy nominations: “Smile” is up for both song of the year and best pop duo/group performance at the awards, and Eilish – a Grammy darling since sweeping the Big Four in 2020 on her debut album – has seven nominations, including album of the year for Hit Me Hard and Soft and song and record of the year for “Birds of a Feather.”
Both songs should stay in the mix at the Hot 100’s top next week, as “Smile” and “Feather” remain at Nos. 2 and 3 on the chart this week, remaining strong performers across the board – “Feather” holds atop Pop Airplay for an eighth week, and “Smile” may challenge for its first week atop Streaming Songs next frame. But it’s unclear if either has the cards left to play to help get either over the hump, and with Shaboozey also a major Grammy nominee, the bump there for either is unlikely to be major enough to be the difference-maker.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 9, we look at Shaboozey’s chances to reclaim the top spot for a historic 16th week, and the many competitors trying to get in his way.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Every conversation about the Hot 100 for the past three (nearly four) months has had to lead off with Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” the surprise breakout country hit that has now gone on a near-historic run of chart dominance. After 15 nonconsecutive frames atop the chart, the song ceded pole position last week to Morgan Wallen’s “Love Somebody” — good timing for Wallen, since his “Last Night” is the 16-week No. 1 that “A Bar Song” is now one week away from tying as the longest-running Hot 100-topper of the 2020s.
“A Bar Song” remains an extremely strong performer, sliding to No. 3 on both Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales (due to the debuts of “Love Somebody” and ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ “APT.” ahead of it on both charts) but remaining No. 1 on Radio Songs for a 13th week. It looks headed for a 14th week atop that chart, and even with its sales and streams continuing to slip this late into its lifespan, they should be strong enough to keep it as the song to beat on the Hot 100 – though this week, a handful of other songs will be in the running to do so.
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Morgan Wallen, “Love Somebody” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen blocked Shaboozey from tying his 2020s Hot 100 record this week, but next week, he may need some help. “Love Somebody” is expected to recede across the board next week, with streams and sales dipping as is typical of a big new song in its second week – and radio likely also falling back some, as the song received heavily concentrated first-day plays as promotion for the new single by country’s biggest current artist. But its streaming and sales numbers remain sturdy, so as the song likely continues to pick up in airplay from here (with Wallen currently one of the most reliable radio artists in all of popular music), it certainly could contend for the top spot again soon, and possibly for many weeks after.
Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Since debuting at No. 3 on the Hot 100 back in August, “Die With a Smile” has been milling rather innocuously around the middle of the top 10. But if you’d counted it out as a No. 1 contender, you may have done so prematurely – it appears that this is the week the two pop superstars are making their move to potentially claim the top spot. Two new versions of the song have been released, an instrumental and a “Live From Las Vegas” version, the latter also unveiled with an accompanying live video. All three versions have also been discounted to 69 cents on iTunes – and as of posting, they occupied the top three spots on iTunes’ real-time chart.
It’s interesting timing, because Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga both have other songs that are chart contenders to some degree this week. Mars’ “APT.” teamup with ROSÉ debuted at No. 8 on the Hot 100 this week, and continues to do very well on both streaming and iTunes, while Gaga has a brand new single with “Disease” — which she also dropped a new video for on Tuesday night (Oct. 29), along with the live “Smile.” Neither song is a likely contender for the top spot however, with Gaga’s latest currently something of a longshot for the top 10 due to modest streaming returns: “Disease” has fallen out of the top 50 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, and out of the top 100 on Apple Music’s real-time listing.
Tyler, the Creator, “St. Chroma” & “Noid” (Columbia): Always the iconoclast, star rapper Tyler, the Creator decided to release his latest album Chromakopia at 6:00 on a Monday morning (Oct. 28). Yet even with just over half of a tracking week to work with, the album is the likely frontrunner for the top spot on next week’s Billboard 200, with excitement over the album resulting in the tracklist dominating the entire top 10 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time listing on its debut day — despite being released six hours into the day.
At least two of those songs could have a major Hot 100 impact next week, as well. “St. Chroma,” the album’s Daniel Caesar-featuring lead track – which previously teased by Tyler with a short two weeks ago – has been in the early lead on streaming services, with some mighty first-day numbers. A few spots behind it has been “Noid,” which despite not being the current best-performing song from the album, does have the advantage of having been released the week before (along with its own music video), thus making it the lone song on the album with a full tracking week’s worth of consumption — although its overall daily numbers were much lower before the album’s release.
Had the full album been released on a Friday, we may very well have been talking about one of these songs as Tyler, the Creator’s first Hot 100 No. 1. Instead, he may end up settling for his first Hot 100 top 10 hit – which is obviously of course still very impressive, especially in a week where all the other songs in the race have such a massive head start.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 2, we look at our potential first new No. 1 in months, as a pair of big new releases compete with Shaboozey’s 15-week champ to claim the top spot.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): The song to beat on the Hot 100 for the last three-plus months has been Shaboozey’s hip-hop-assisted country anthem, which spends its 15th week in pole position on this week’s chart (dated Oct. 26). With one more week on top, it would match the 16-week run of Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” as the longest-reigning Hot 100 No. 1 of the 2020s, while also moving into a four-way tie with “Last Night,” Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” for the second-longest-lasting No. 1 in the chart’s complete history.
The song, of course, remains a top performer across the Hot 100 component charts, as it tops Radio Songs, Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales this week – its third time tripling up on the three listings. It is beginning to slide in totals, however, slipping 2% in radio airplay audience impressions, 6% in official streams and 8% in digital song sales, according to Luminate – meaning that its hold on the top spot is increasingly vulnerable, should a really big new song come along to challenge for the throne. (Meanwhile, a second single, “Highway,” from the singer-songwriter’s album Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going has just been sent to radio.)
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Shaboozey isn’t laying down for anyone, though – and in fact, he made his most high-profile appearance of the season on Tuesday night, performing “A Bar Song” on TNT before the NBA season officially tipped off with Knicks-Celtics.
Morgan Wallen, “Love Somebody” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): It would almost be poetic if the song that prevented – or at least delayed – Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” from tying the 16-week mark of “Last Night” was actually by Morgan Wallen himself. Wallen should have a chance to go for the block next week following the Friday (Oct. 18) release of his new single “Love Somebody” — his follow-up to the top 10 hit “Lies Lies Lies” — which he extensively teased on TikTok and through live performances, and has an uptempo energy more reminiscent of his recent Hot 100-topping Post Malone teamup “I Had Some Help.”
The song is off to a great start both on streaming — where it’s been No. 1 on Apple Music’s real time chart essentially since its release day, and debuted at No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing (though it’s since slipped to No. 6 there) — and in sales, as it’s been in the top two on iTunes for most of the tracking week. It’s also off to a hot start on radio, with 11.5 million in all-format airplay audience in its first four days (Oct. 18-21), including 10.2 million from reporters to the Country Airplay chart, where it will challenge for an extremely rare debut in the top 10. (He’d be in familiar territory there, however, as both “Lies” and “Help” are currently residing in the top 10.)
Will it be enough to knock off “A Bar Song”? It could be a close race, coming down to the final days – so we’ll see if Wallen and his team have any aces up their sleeve to try to protect their “Last Night” mark. (A Thursday Night Football appearance on Amazon Prime, perhaps?)
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.” (Atlantic): A high-profile Bruno Mars pop team-up gets off to a modestly successful start before growing throughout the week and ending up an unexpected challenger for a debut in the Hot 100’s top tier. Sound familiar? Well, just a couple months ago, it was the early story for “Die With a Smile,” Mars’ teamup with fellow pop megastar Lady Gaga, which ultimately debuted at No. 3 on the Hot 100 and has spent the first nine weeks of its chart run in the top 10. Now, it’s déjà vu all over again for Mars – though this time with a duet partner with much less established chart history than Gaga.
“APT.,” Mars’ much-promoted collab with BLACKPINK solo star ROSÉ, debuted at No. 11 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for Friday (Oct. 18) — but by Sunday, it had bounded to No. 1, where it has stayed since. (The song has also been growing on Apple Music, but has yet to crack the real-time chart’s top 50 as of posting.) The song is also selling well, currently residing at No. 3 on iTunes, and is aiming to debut on the Pop Airplay chart after its first week of tracking – which would make it ROSÉ’s first entry on the chart as a soloist. (Her solo history on the Hot 100 has also been relatively muted, with her “On the Ground” peaking at No. 70 – though she’s of course reached the chart’s top 20 as a member of BLACKPINK.)
The song might have started a little too slow to be a real contender for No. 1 next week in its debut – but it could be a second top 10 hit for Mars this year, and if it keeps growing like this, we might still be talking about it in future Contenders columns.