The Contenders
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 30, we look at whether the longest-running No. 1 of 2024 is about to tie the record the longest-running No. 1 of all-time.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s graduation week for “A Bar Song” on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, as its reign on top turns 18. The song is currently also trending toward a 17th week at No. 1 on Radio Songs – while this past week, it logged its 15th week atop the charts simultaneously, a new record for the longest such double-up since Radio Songs began in 1990, passing Mariah Carey’s “We Belong Together.” It has also been top 10 on the Digital Song Sales chart continuously since late April and Streaming Songs since May; it has been top 10 on all three Hot 100 component charts, including Radio Songs, concurrently each week since late June.
Is there any reason to think it’s due for any big falls or rises before next week, where it goes for its all-time record-tying 19th week at No. 1 – potentially matching Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” from five years earlier? Well, it slid more (though not a tremendous amount) this week in both streaming and radio airplay, though its sales were up 16%. The song’s overall momentum going into next week might depend on tonight’s (Nov. 20) CMA Awards, where Shaboozey is both a scheduled performer and a nominee in single of the year (for “Bar Song”) and best new artist.
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With a big, consumption-driving night at the CMAs tonight (and with next week’s charts reflecting consumption for the tracking week ending Thursday), the timing might be right next week for Shaboozey to etch his name in the Billboard history books.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite being a full three months into its lifespan at this point, “Die With a Smile” is still gaining chart momentum, as it hits the Radio Songs top five and No. 1 on Pop Airplay — Gaga‘s first time reaching those heights since 2011. The song’s streaming looks to be relatively even with last week, and it’s currently discounted to 69 cents on iTunes – as is “A Bar Song” — so it should be a pretty close battle next week on the Hot 100 between the two. If Shaboozey does get a CMAs bump, can Gaga and Bruno and their respective teams find a way before Friday to get their song a little extra juice? These questions might determine the winner in what should be a very closely monitored Hot 100 race next week.
Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): After topping Streaming Songs and hitting the Hot 100’s top 10 for the first time this week, “That’s So True” has become the first truly undeniable smash of Gracie Abrams’ career. The song’s streaming growth seems to be slowing this week — so it might not be challenging for No. 1 as soon as next week – but it’s gotten big enough that Abrams’ Interscope label has started to shift its radio promotional efforts (previously focused on “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry”) to it. If radio starts to pick up on “True” the way streaming has, there’s probably no ceiling on how high the song can continue to climb for the rest of 2024 and into 2025.
Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): As the weather cools down, Mariah Carey just starts getting stronger. “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is starting to get its usual seasonal airplay, and jumps from 34 to 21 on this week’s Streaming Songs chart — the highest-ranking holiday entry — and should continue climbing in leaps and bounds in the weeks to come. “All I Want” could rechart on the Hot 100 — maybe even in the top 10 — as soon as next week, and from then it’s only a matter of time before it becomes the frontrunner to reign again during the holiday season, for the sixth calendar year in a row. And if it does… it’s already racked up 14 weeks total at No. 1, so it might not be long until it gets in the all-time record conversation with Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus (and soon enough, possibly Shaboozey).
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 23, we look at the chances of a quickly rising hit to halt the increasingly historic reign of the decade’s longest-running Hot 100 No. 1.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s 17 weeks now for Shaboozey atop the Hot 100, giving it sole possession of the title for longest-running No. 1 on the chart this decade, and second place all-time. The only song still standing in its way from standing alone atop all Hot 100 history: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which reigned for 19 weeks in 2019. (Coincidentally, Lil Nas X himself has announced the imminent release of his new song “Light Again,” though we’ll see if he still has the viral skills to be able to protect his own chart record — “J Christ,” his first release of 2024, topped out at No. 69.)
Anyway, it’s the same old story with “A Bar Song,” which is mostly slipping in its weekly performance – though it was actually up 2% in sales this week, according to Luminate, rebounding from No. 7 to No. 3 on the Digital Song Sales chart – but not falling fast enough for anything below it to really catch it. Airplay remains at the core of its stronghold, as the song spends a 15th week atop Radio Songs this week, with a 16th week in play next week. Meanwhile, the song might get a bit of a bump this week from the Friday-announced (Nov. 8) Grammy nominations, where Shaboozey is up for five nominations, including best new artist and song of the year for “Bar.”
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Gracie Abrams, “That’s So True” (Interscope/ICLG): For the first time in what feels like a long time, there’s a rising hit with legitimate momentum coming up from behind Shaboozey. Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” didn’t look like a world-beater when it debuted on Oct. 18 as one of four new songs on the deluxe edition of her breakout set The Secret of Us, but it’s continued to grow every week since its release, climbing 25-13 on the Hot 100 this week, and even passing “A Bar Song” on Streaming Songs, as it moves up to No. 4 on that chart. TikTok has helped, of course – the song debuts at No. 16 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 – as has a new official live version from Radio City Music Hall, released to DSPs last week. (It also helps to have the world’s biggest tour as a continued platform, as Abrams continues opening Canadian dates on Taylor Swift’s Eras trek through early December.)
Now, the song has overtaken the top spot on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time chart, while also climbing to just outside the top 10 on the iTunes chart. That streaming momentum could take it to the Hot 100’s 10 next week – and so far, it’s just kept climbing. The question of if it could end up being a legitimate threat to Shaboozey might come down to radio – of course, “A Bar Song” has a massive advantage there as the still-reigning most-played song in the country, while “That’s So True” is just beginning to draw airplay, behind Abrams’ other contemporaneous hits “Close to You” and “I Love You, I’m Sorry.” But “True” is slowly gaining steam there, too, so if it continues to grow while “A Bar Song” shrinks, the gap could be closed before too long.
Can it catch Shaboozey in the next three weeks? Will it get there before the Holiday season rush begins? We’ll see, but if nothing else, it should make the race more exciting in the meantime.
Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): It’s a good week for Interscope on the charts, as between Abrams, Lady Gaga and Billie Eilish, the label is likely to claim three of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100. The latter two artists are also likely beneficiaries of Friday’s Grammy nominations: “Smile” is up for both song of the year and best pop duo/group performance at the awards, and Eilish – a Grammy darling since sweeping the Big Four in 2020 on her debut album – has seven nominations, including album of the year for Hit Me Hard and Soft and song and record of the year for “Birds of a Feather.”
Both songs should stay in the mix at the Hot 100’s top next week, as “Smile” and “Feather” remain at Nos. 2 and 3 on the chart this week, remaining strong performers across the board – “Feather” holds atop Pop Airplay for an eighth week, and “Smile” may challenge for its first week atop Streaming Songs next frame. But it’s unclear if either has the cards left to play to help get either over the hump, and with Shaboozey also a major Grammy nominee, the bump there for either is unlikely to be major enough to be the difference-maker.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 9, we look at Shaboozey’s chances to reclaim the top spot for a historic 16th week, and the many competitors trying to get in his way.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Every conversation about the Hot 100 for the past three (nearly four) months has had to lead off with Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” the surprise breakout country hit that has now gone on a near-historic run of chart dominance. After 15 nonconsecutive frames atop the chart, the song ceded pole position last week to Morgan Wallen’s “Love Somebody” — good timing for Wallen, since his “Last Night” is the 16-week No. 1 that “A Bar Song” is now one week away from tying as the longest-running Hot 100-topper of the 2020s.
“A Bar Song” remains an extremely strong performer, sliding to No. 3 on both Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales (due to the debuts of “Love Somebody” and ROSÉ & Bruno Mars’ “APT.” ahead of it on both charts) but remaining No. 1 on Radio Songs for a 13th week. It looks headed for a 14th week atop that chart, and even with its sales and streams continuing to slip this late into its lifespan, they should be strong enough to keep it as the song to beat on the Hot 100 – though this week, a handful of other songs will be in the running to do so.
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Morgan Wallen, “Love Somebody” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen blocked Shaboozey from tying his 2020s Hot 100 record this week, but next week, he may need some help. “Love Somebody” is expected to recede across the board next week, with streams and sales dipping as is typical of a big new song in its second week – and radio likely also falling back some, as the song received heavily concentrated first-day plays as promotion for the new single by country’s biggest current artist. But its streaming and sales numbers remain sturdy, so as the song likely continues to pick up in airplay from here (with Wallen currently one of the most reliable radio artists in all of popular music), it certainly could contend for the top spot again soon, and possibly for many weeks after.
Bruno Mars & Lady Gaga, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Since debuting at No. 3 on the Hot 100 back in August, “Die With a Smile” has been milling rather innocuously around the middle of the top 10. But if you’d counted it out as a No. 1 contender, you may have done so prematurely – it appears that this is the week the two pop superstars are making their move to potentially claim the top spot. Two new versions of the song have been released, an instrumental and a “Live From Las Vegas” version, the latter also unveiled with an accompanying live video. All three versions have also been discounted to 69 cents on iTunes – and as of posting, they occupied the top three spots on iTunes’ real-time chart.
It’s interesting timing, because Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga both have other songs that are chart contenders to some degree this week. Mars’ “APT.” teamup with ROSÉ debuted at No. 8 on the Hot 100 this week, and continues to do very well on both streaming and iTunes, while Gaga has a brand new single with “Disease” — which she also dropped a new video for on Tuesday night (Oct. 29), along with the live “Smile.” Neither song is a likely contender for the top spot however, with Gaga’s latest currently something of a longshot for the top 10 due to modest streaming returns: “Disease” has fallen out of the top 50 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, and out of the top 100 on Apple Music’s real-time listing.
Tyler, the Creator, “St. Chroma” & “Noid” (Columbia): Always the iconoclast, star rapper Tyler, the Creator decided to release his latest album Chromakopia at 6:00 on a Monday morning (Oct. 28). Yet even with just over half of a tracking week to work with, the album is the likely frontrunner for the top spot on next week’s Billboard 200, with excitement over the album resulting in the tracklist dominating the entire top 10 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and the Apple Music real-time listing on its debut day — despite being released six hours into the day.
At least two of those songs could have a major Hot 100 impact next week, as well. “St. Chroma,” the album’s Daniel Caesar-featuring lead track – which previously teased by Tyler with a short two weeks ago – has been in the early lead on streaming services, with some mighty first-day numbers. A few spots behind it has been “Noid,” which despite not being the current best-performing song from the album, does have the advantage of having been released the week before (along with its own music video), thus making it the lone song on the album with a full tracking week’s worth of consumption — although its overall daily numbers were much lower before the album’s release.
Had the full album been released on a Friday, we may very well have been talking about one of these songs as Tyler, the Creator’s first Hot 100 No. 1. Instead, he may end up settling for his first Hot 100 top 10 hit – which is obviously of course still very impressive, especially in a week where all the other songs in the race have such a massive head start.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 2, we look at our potential first new No. 1 in months, as a pair of big new releases compete with Shaboozey’s 15-week champ to claim the top spot.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): The song to beat on the Hot 100 for the last three-plus months has been Shaboozey’s hip-hop-assisted country anthem, which spends its 15th week in pole position on this week’s chart (dated Oct. 26). With one more week on top, it would match the 16-week run of Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” as the longest-reigning Hot 100 No. 1 of the 2020s, while also moving into a four-way tie with “Last Night,” Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” for the second-longest-lasting No. 1 in the chart’s complete history.
The song, of course, remains a top performer across the Hot 100 component charts, as it tops Radio Songs, Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales this week – its third time tripling up on the three listings. It is beginning to slide in totals, however, slipping 2% in radio airplay audience impressions, 6% in official streams and 8% in digital song sales, according to Luminate – meaning that its hold on the top spot is increasingly vulnerable, should a really big new song come along to challenge for the throne. (Meanwhile, a second single, “Highway,” from the singer-songwriter’s album Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going has just been sent to radio.)
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Shaboozey isn’t laying down for anyone, though – and in fact, he made his most high-profile appearance of the season on Tuesday night, performing “A Bar Song” on TNT before the NBA season officially tipped off with Knicks-Celtics.
Morgan Wallen, “Love Somebody” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): It would almost be poetic if the song that prevented – or at least delayed – Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” from tying the 16-week mark of “Last Night” was actually by Morgan Wallen himself. Wallen should have a chance to go for the block next week following the Friday (Oct. 18) release of his new single “Love Somebody” — his follow-up to the top 10 hit “Lies Lies Lies” — which he extensively teased on TikTok and through live performances, and has an uptempo energy more reminiscent of his recent Hot 100-topping Post Malone teamup “I Had Some Help.”
The song is off to a great start both on streaming — where it’s been No. 1 on Apple Music’s real time chart essentially since its release day, and debuted at No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing (though it’s since slipped to No. 6 there) — and in sales, as it’s been in the top two on iTunes for most of the tracking week. It’s also off to a hot start on radio, with 11.5 million in all-format airplay audience in its first four days (Oct. 18-21), including 10.2 million from reporters to the Country Airplay chart, where it will challenge for an extremely rare debut in the top 10. (He’d be in familiar territory there, however, as both “Lies” and “Help” are currently residing in the top 10.)
Will it be enough to knock off “A Bar Song”? It could be a close race, coming down to the final days – so we’ll see if Wallen and his team have any aces up their sleeve to try to protect their “Last Night” mark. (A Thursday Night Football appearance on Amazon Prime, perhaps?)
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.” (Atlantic): A high-profile Bruno Mars pop team-up gets off to a modestly successful start before growing throughout the week and ending up an unexpected challenger for a debut in the Hot 100’s top tier. Sound familiar? Well, just a couple months ago, it was the early story for “Die With a Smile,” Mars’ teamup with fellow pop megastar Lady Gaga, which ultimately debuted at No. 3 on the Hot 100 and has spent the first nine weeks of its chart run in the top 10. Now, it’s déjà vu all over again for Mars – though this time with a duet partner with much less established chart history than Gaga.
“APT.,” Mars’ much-promoted collab with BLACKPINK solo star ROSÉ, debuted at No. 11 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for Friday (Oct. 18) — but by Sunday, it had bounded to No. 1, where it has stayed since. (The song has also been growing on Apple Music, but has yet to crack the real-time chart’s top 50 as of posting.) The song is also selling well, currently residing at No. 3 on iTunes, and is aiming to debut on the Pop Airplay chart after its first week of tracking – which would make it ROSÉ’s first entry on the chart as a soloist. (Her solo history on the Hot 100 has also been relatively muted, with her “On the Ground” peaking at No. 70 – though she’s of course reached the chart’s top 20 as a member of BLACKPINK.)
The song might have started a little too slow to be a real contender for No. 1 next week in its debut – but it could be a second top 10 hit for Mars this year, and if it keeps growing like this, we might still be talking about it in future Contenders columns.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Oct. 26, we look at the most competitive race we’ve had on the albums chart in some time, as a pair of big new releases (and a just-retooled slightly older one) compete to claim the top spot.
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Jelly Roll, Beautifully Broken (Republic): If it feels impossible that Jelly Roll is only releasing his first album of 2024 this October, there’s a reason for that. The 2023 country breakout star has been absolutely ubiquitous throughout 2024, showing up everywhere from the Emmys to SNL to Congress (!!) to Twisters: The Album to new sets by Post Malone, Eminem, Falling in Reverse and Jessie Murph – as well as on plenty of his own new releases, including the Billboard Hot 100 Hits “I Am Not Okay” and “Liar.” But indeed, his LP follow-up to last year’s Whitsitt Chapel did not arrive until just last Friday (Oct. 11), in the form of Beautifully Broken.
The new set features those two aforementioned hits, as well as guest appearances by rapper Wiz Khalifa, his “Lonely Road” collaborator mgk and singer-songwriter Isley Jubey. It’s available as a 14-track standard physical album and 22-track deluxe on digital download and streaming services – and if that’s not enough Jelly Roll in your life, Friday also saw the release of a 28-track super-deluxe edition subtitled (Pickin’ Up the Pieces), which features additional guest appearances from country stars ERNEST and Keith Urban, singer-rapper Russ and singer-songwriters Halsey and Skylar Grey.
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The 28-track length should certainly help the set’s numbers on streaming, where Jelly Roll usually performs fairly well for a country artist – but Beautifully Broken is expected to do most of its damage in sales. The album is available on his webstore on cassette, CD and vinyl, including gold and camo vinyl variants and a signed CD, as well as a fan pack featuring the signed CD along with a T-shirt or hoodie. There’s also a clear/gold splatter vinyl version exclusively available at indie stores, and a “silver nugget” variant exclusive to Amazon, while the digital deluxe and Pieces editions of the album are on sale on iTunes for $4.99 and $7.99, respectively. It all could add up to Jelly Roll’s first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 – though in a competitive week, he’ll still need all the help he can get.
Rod Wave, Last Lap (Alamo): One artist who already has several Billboard 200 No. 1s to his credit is Florida-born rapper Rod Wave. Despite keeping a low mainstream profile and never really scoring a crossover pop hit – with even hip-hop radio support remaining limited – Rod Wave has maintained consistent commercial success that most MCs can only dream of, with three straight No. 1 albums in three straight years this decade: 2021’s SoulFly, 2022’s Beautiful Mind and last year’s Nostalgia.
Will Rod Wave be able to go 4-for-4? The stacked week could make it tough, but the album is off to another hot start on streaming. Like Future’s Mixtape Pluto a couple weeks ago, Last Lap’s presence on Spotify has been minimal – claiming just one spot on the current Daily Top Songs USA chart, with “25” ranking at No. 138 – but it has been absolutely dominant on Apple Music, occupying seven of the top 10 spots on the DSP’s real-time chart, including the entire top three (led by “25”). It will need to keep up that streaming performance to have a shot at the top spot, because as has also traditionally been the case with new Rod Wave releases, the album is not yet available for physical purchase – though it is also available digitally on iTunes for $4.99.
Charli XCX, Brat (Atlantic): Though Brat Summer has come and gone – at least according to the weather outside – Charli XCX’s Brat album has remained a fixture on the Billboard 200, ranking at No. 14 this week in its 18th week on the chart. It should get a huge bump next week from the release of its new complementary remix edition: Brat and it’s completely different but also still brat, a star-studded 34 (or 35, including the recently released add-on “Spring Breakers” with Kesha) track affair which includes new versions of each of Brat’s original 15 cuts (as well as bonus track “Guess,” now with Billie Eilish), with each redo featuring one or multiple new big-name featured artists.
The much-anticipated completely different version of Brat includes Charli’s previously released spins on “360” (with Robyn and Yung Lean), “Girl So Confusing” (with Lorde) “Von Dutch” (with A.G. Cook and Addison Rae) and “Talk Talk” (with Troye Sivan) as well as the aforementioned “Guess.” Some of the most attention-grabbing newly added names to the guest list include The 1975 (along with Jon Hopkins on “I Might Say Something Stupid”), Bon Iver (on “I Think About It All the Time”) and pop superstar Ariana Grande (on “Sympathy Is a Knife”). The completely different version of Brat, as with all other previously released permutations of Brat, will all be combined into one Brat for chart purposes.
The set should rack up a good amount of curiosity streams for its new remixes and the big names on them, and it’s also available for purchase on Charli’s webstore in double-CD, double-cassette and triple-vinyl editions (and for $4.99 on iTunes), all of which also include the original Brat tracklist. But with the entirely new Jelly Roll and Rod Wave albums getting in the way this week, Charli will have her work cut out for her in passing the original No. 3 debut spot of Brat on the Billboard 200 even with the added help.
IN THE MIX
GloRilla, Glorious (CMG/Interscope): Though many prematurely wrote off GloRilla when her 2023 did not maintain the momentum of her breakout 2022, her official debut album is now coming at the exact right time – hot off the momentum of 2024 hits “Yeah Glo!,” “Wanna Be” (with Megan Thee Stallion), “TGIF” and “Hollon.” The first two of those aren’t found on Glorious, but the latter two are, along with appearances from the aforementioned Stallion, Muni Long, Latto, Bossman Dlow, Sexyy Red and more big-name guests – with the Sexyy teamup “Whatchu Kno About Me” already looking on its way to breakout hit status. In many other weeks this autumn, Glorious’ strong streaming entrance (and webstore availability on signed CD, and in a digital download with an exclusive bonus track) would likely have it as a contender for the Billboard 200’s top debut – but in this stacked week, it may have to settle for top five.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard 200 dated Oct. 19, we look at the latest from 21st century rock greats Coldplay, whose unusual approach to physical releases may help them get back atop the albums chart.
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Coldplay, Moon Music (Parlophone/Atlantic): Few rock bands this century are as familiar with the top spot of the Billboard 200 as Coldplay, which has reached No. 1 four times already – although not since 2014, when they last topped the chart with Ghost Stories. In the decade since, the band’s crossover success in the U.S. has been a little more modest, with their only top 20 hits on the Billboard Hot 100 coming along with then-superpowers The Chainsmokers (“Something Just Like This,” 2017) and BTS (“My Universe,” 2021). And even with “My Universe” on its tracklist, the group’s most recent album (2021’s Music of the Spheres) tapped out at No. 4 on the Billboard 200.
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For its new album, Friday’s (Oct. 4) Moon Music, Coldplay is really giving it the old college try. The group has already made a number of promotional appearances, including playing two new songs from the set on last weekend’s Saturday Night Live (while frontman Chris Martin showed up on The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon a couple days earlier to perform “We Pray” in the style of various rock legends). The band also played an underplay show at Music Hall of Williamsburg in New York City on Monday, and earlier that day, released a Full Moon deluxe edition of the 10-song set, expanding it to 20 tracks for DSPs and digital retailers.
The album does not yet have a true breakout hit, and is not expected to stream in extraordinary numbers. However, it should sell well, having been released in a variety of physical variants – with all releases designed with an eye towards environmental consciousness, as sustainability has been a major priority for the band in recent years. Each of the album’s LP releases will contain some nine recycled PET-plastic bottles recovered from post-consumer waste, and the CD version is claimed to be the “world’s first” to be released on EcoCD, which is created from 90% recycled polycarbonate, also sourced from post-consumer waste.
We will see this week just how much environmental sustainability excites Coldplay’s fanbase into buying one of the available versions of the band’s new album – which includes yellow, red, pink (with a signed art card) and “Spotify Fans First” green vinyl variants, and a “Notebook Edition” exclusive to their webstore, which also features a 12” hardback replica of Martin’s studio notebook with 28 pages of notes and personal illustrations, a bonus CD of voicenote recordings, and even a pair of moongoggles. But the Notebook Edition is sold out on the webstore, and Moon Music is off to one of the best starts of the decade for a U.K. act in the lads’ home country, so perhaps that bodes well for their U.S. fortunes.
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet (Island): To be The Man, Moon Music will have to beat The Man – and “The Man” in this case is of course Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet, which after briefly ceding the title to Travis Scott’s Days Before Rodeo is back atop the Billboard 200 for a fourth week this frame. Short n’ Sweet is still pulling six-digit consumption weeks – though just barely, as last week it notched exactly 100,000 units – and was actually up 1% in its performance from the week before, with added interest from the beginning of the accompanying Short n’ Sweet Tour no doubt helping there. That interest may be due to recede slightly this week, but Moon Music’s first-week units will still likely need to land in the 100,000s for the band to comfortably clear the pint-sized superstar with its new release.
IN THE MIX
Megan Moroney, Am I Okay? (Sony Music/Columbia): Megan Moroney has proven herself one of the most reliable streaming performers in modern country music with her set Am I Okay?, which debuted in the top 10 on the Billboard 200 a couple months ago and has continued to hang around the top 100 in the weeks since (landing at No. 77 this week). The set should make a big jump next week following the digital release of its (I’ll Be Fine) deluxe edition, which tacks another three cuts onto the 14-track original, including the heartbroken “Break It Right Back,” which is already off to a strong start on streaming.
Finneas, For Cryin’ Out Loud! (OYOY/Interscope): While sister and collaborator Billie Eilish continues to storm the Billboard Hot 100 – her “Birds of a Feather” is up to a new peak of No. 2 – writer/producer and recording artist Finneas also sets his sights on the charts this week with his own solo LP, For Cryin’ Out Loud! The solo artist has also gone the Coldplay route with his new set’s physical release, as the album is available on his webstore on orange, gold and pink biovinyl (a sustainable product made from polyvinyl chloride) as well as on a signed CD and a as part of a fan pack with a CD and logo T-shirt.
Aphex Twin, Selected Ambient Works Volume II (Warp): How often do we get to talk about 30-year-old ambient albums on The Contenders? It’s a rarity for sure, but Aphex Twin’s 1994 classic double-album Selected Ambient Works Vol. 2 – widely considered one of the great electronic releases of the ‘90s — should make a chart impact this week, as the set was re-released as a 4x LP box set, collecting all the tracks available on different previous permutations of the album and even featuring two unreleased tracks being included on the physical version for the first time. Any Billboard 200 entrance this week would instantly mark the set’s peak; it failed to chart upon its original release three decades ago.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard Hot 100 dated Oct. 12, we look at a few threats to the long-established throne of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” including a new star team-up and an established pop megahit with a new official video.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s crazy to remember that a few months ago, it seemed like Shaboozey would need a little luck on his side to even steal a week at No. 1, considering the crowded pack of songs his “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” had to get past and the double-digit-week climb in consumption it needed to scale first. Now, not only is the song the year’s longest-reigning No. 1, but it’s gone twice as long on top as any other previous Hot 100-topper – and it may not be done for a while yet.
Despite being nearly half a year old at this point – this chart week (dated Oct. 5) marks its 24th week on the Hot 100 — “A Bar Song” remains in the top two in all three component charts, leading Streaming Songs and Radio Songs and ranking at No. 2 on Digital Song Sales. The song is trending towards another week atop Radio Songs next frame – which would already be its 10th week at pole position there – as it remains top five across Country Airplay, Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay.
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Is it time to start thinking about the chances “A Bar Song” has of becoming the longest-reigning Hot 100 No. 1 this decade – or even all time? It still needs another four weeks to tie Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” (16 weeks, 2023) for the former, and then three weeks on top of that to tie Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” (19 weeks, 2019). A whole lot can happen between now and then, and the song’s weekly metrics are hardly on a historically unbeatable level this deep into its run – but clearly, unless the bottom really starts to fall out on Shaboozey’s crossover smash, another song is gonna have to really rise up and take the top spot from it, rather than hoping for natural statistical erosion to end its run.
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): Billie Eilish already has her biggest hit in years with “Birds of a Feather,” but next week the top five hit (which rests at No. 6 this week) should get a bump from its new official music video, which features a gravity-defying Eilish and which she dropped last Friday (Sept. 27). As one of the most celebrated music video artists of this era, the clip naturally has gotten a ton of attention, and remains No. 1 on YouTube’s Trending Music rankings five days after its release.
The video could provide enough of a boost to help the previously No. 5-peaking hit reach a new high on the Hot 100. It’s gonna need to be a particularly big one to help the song unseat Shaboozey, however – the song ranks at No. 5 on both Streaming Songs and Radio Songs this week, and will likely remain at a deficit on the latter chart next week (and perhaps beyond), having already topped Pop Airplay (and still climbing Adult Pop Airplay) but lacking the cross-genre base support that “A Bar Song” has on country radio. (Eilish has previously found success on Rock & Alternative Airplay, but “Birds” is not being promoted to those formats.)
The Weeknd & Playboi Carti, “Timeless” (XO/Republic): Both The Weeknd and Playboi Carti had top 20 debuts on the Hot 100 last week — “Dancing in the Flames” (No. 14) and “All Red” (No. 15), respectively – so how high could they get by teaming up? We’ll see shortly, but they’ll have a hell of a streaming start: five days after its release, their “Timeless” still sits atop both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and Apple Music’s realtime chart.
The collab is in play to unseat “A Bar Song” atop Streaming Songs, but it will need to really trounce the song in streaming numbers to have a shot of making up for the gap in radio play between the two. “Timeless” already has amassed three million in airplay audience from R&B/hip-hop and rhythmic radio in its first four days of release, according to Luminate, but that’s still a small fraction of the weekly reach of a cross-format super-smash like “A Bar Song” — and “Timeless” also appears to be well behind “Bar” in song sales, too, as the latter currently ranks at No. 2 on the iTunes real-time chart while the former is outside the top 40.
IN THE MIX
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): When Gaga announced a new Joker: Folie a Deux-inspired album of pop standard covers mixed with a couple classic-sounding new songs, it seemed a no-brainer that her retro-leaning (and Joker-y titled) new hit with Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile,” would be included on the set. But “Smile” remains a standalone single, so any bump it gets from the Friday release of her new Harlequin LP will have to be in terms of spillover interest. Regardless of any streaming gains, it does continue climbing on radio this week, moving up the top 10 on Adult Contemporary and the top 20 on Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay – and perhaps the song will receive more interest still after the release of the Gaga-starring Joker movie this Friday (Oct. 4).
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard 200 dated Oct. 4, we look at a pack of new releases, led by Future’s Mixtape Pluto set, which could make him just the second artist this decade to notch three No. 1 albums in a calendar year.
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Future, Mixtape Pluto (Freebandz/Epic): Six months after helping to fire the opening shot that set off the hip-hop World War that was the Kendrick Lamar-Drake feud, with the Lamar-featuring “Like That” single off his and producer co-star Metro Boomin’s first of two We Still Don’t Trust You sets, rap superstar Future is back with his third all-new album of 2024. Mixtape Pluto debuted on Friday (Sept. 20), though with no big-name guests throwing down gauntlets for the rest of the rap world to respond to – no guests of any kind, actually, as the set features Future as the lone credited performer on all 17 of the tracks on its streaming release.
Nonetheless, the set has performed predictably well on streaming – particularly on Apple Music, where it blanketed the top of the real-time charts upon its Friday release, and still claims the entire top five as of Wednesday. (It’s been a little less prolific on Spotify, where it currently holds just five spots in the entire Daily Top Songs USA top 200, and none in the top 40.) Unlike some other recent Future releases (and despite its mixtape billing), however, this album has the advantage of a physical release to go with it – which is only 11 tracks long, but is available on both CD and vinyl on his webstore and at some brick-and-mortar stores.
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If Future debuts atop the Billboard 200 with Mixtape Pluto, it would mark his eighth consecutive official solo album to do so, dating back to DS2 – as well as his 11th No. 1 album overall, moving him into a five-way tie with Barbra Streisand, Bruce Springsteen, Ye and Eminem for the fourth-most such albums in Billboard 200 history. It would also be his third No. 1 of 2024 alone, after We Don’t Trust You and We Still Don’t Trust You, which would make him just the second artist this decade to score three No. 1 albums in the same calendar year – following (of course) Taylor Swift, who pulled off the achievement in 2021 with Evermore, Fearless (Taylor’s Version) and Red (Taylor’s Version) — and the first to debut three albums there in one year (Evermore having previously topped the chart in 2020).
Katy Perry, 143 (Capitol): It’s been one of the most buzzed-about promo campaigns of 2024, although not always for the best reasons: Katy Perry’s 143 debuts this week after months of lead-up, kicked off by the release of July lead single “Woman’s World,” which drew negative reviews and lasted just one week on the Billboard Hot 100. Subsequent advance tracks were less coldly received but made minimal commercial impact, though Perry’s career-spanning performance while receiving the Video Vanguard award at the MTV Video Music Awards two weeks ago (Sept. 11) was well-received.
The set is finally out now, and features guest turns from hitmakers 21 Savage, Kim Petras, JID and Doechii, the latter of whom appeared on stage with Perry at the VMAs to perform their Crystal Waters-lifting “I’m His, He’s Mine.” While the set does not appear to be generating any significant streaming hits, it will have the sales advantage of an array of physical releases – with eight vinyl variants (including some retail exclusives, as well as a signed edition exclusive to her d2c), a couple CD variants (including a signed edition exclusive to her d2c and a deluxe-packaging edition with collectible ephemera) and even a cassette.
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Speaking of the VMAs: One of its other most notable performers and winners is also in the hunt for the No. 1 spot this week. Chappell Roan, who took home best new artist and delivered a memorable medieval performance of standalone single “Good Luck, Babe!” at the ceremonies, recently celebrated the one-year anniversary of her slow-developing blockbuster The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess with a new physical reissue of the set, including multiple new vinyl variants.
It could be the best chance that the set, which climbed all the way to No. 2 on the Billboard 200 after 20 weeks on the chart, has to get that final boost that it needs to reach No. 1 – though with Future’s combined streaming and sales numbers, it might be a tough week for it to finally get over the top. However, the album has been hanging in the top five for months now, with no real signs that its streaming dominance is coming to an end, so count it out at your own peril.
IN THE MIX
Lil Tecca, Plan A (Galactic/Republic): While he hasn’t had a major Hot 100 hit since 2019’s “Ransom,” Lil Tecca has proved himself a fairly reliable performer on streaming in the years since – and scored an impressive slow-burner last year with the “500 Lbs” single. His three official studio albums to date have all bowed around the border of the top 10 (No. 10 for 2020’s Virgo World, No. 10 for 2021’s We Love You Tecca 2 and No. 11 for 2023’s Tec), and this month’s Plan A will likely be shooting for roughly the same range – with strong streaming performance and multiple digital variants available for sale on his webstore, including one digitally signed version and one with two bonus tracks.
Keith Urban, High (Capitol Nashville / Hit Red): Keith Urban’s first album in four years features the top 20 Country Airplay hit “Messed Up as Me,” and is available in four vinyl variants and three CD variants, including a couple retail exclusives with exclusive branded paper merch. Urban has a streak of eight consecutive top 10 studio albums on the Billboard 200 to protect, a run which dates back to Be Here in 2004.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the charts dated Sept. 28, we head back to the Billboard 200, where Sabrina Carpenter’s latest has reigned for its first three weeks – but now faces a familiar challenger, again revitalized.
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Sabrina Carpenter, Short N’ Sweet (Island): For a 12-track album with no expanded deluxe edition available on DSPs, the endurance in consumption for Sabrina Carpenter’s Short N’ Sweet has been damn impressive. After bowing atop the Billboard 200 with 362,000 units earned in its debut week, the set has not only held at No. 1 over the last two weeks (amidst a not-particularly-crowded release schedule), but continued to post unit totals in the six digits – 117,000 in its third week – a combo that only her good buddy Taylor Swift had previously managed to pull off this year, of course with her 15-week No. 1 The Tortured Poets Department.
The set should continue to slide in its fourth week, but only slowly – the album still holds four of the top 10 spots on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and three on the Apple Music real-time update, with fan favorite “Bed Chem” slowly rising towards the territory of the set’s top-charting trio: “Espresso,” “Please Please Please” and “Taste.” SnS may also benefit some from Carpenter’s well-received debut performance on the VMAs mainstage last Wednesday (Sept. 11), where she played a medley of those three hits (and made out with an alien), while also picking up the song of the year Moonperson for “Espresso.”
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Travis Scott, Days Before Rodeo (Cactus Jack/Epic): If Carpenter thought she had vanquished Travis Scott for good during their showdown for the top spot three weeks earlier – where Short N’ Sweet edged out Days Before Rodeo for No. 1 by a margin of under 1,000 units, one of the year’s closest races – she may have to think twice next week. While Scott’s album has already fallen from No. 2 to No. 106 on the Billboard 200, and the rapper already pulled out many of the stops with the digital reissue of his beloved 2014 mixtape during its first week of re-release, he had not yet pushed the button on shipping out any vinyl copies of the album.
That changes this week, as the vinyl edition of Days Before Rodeo has begun to ship to fans — both the vinyl LP (in its standard and deluxe version, with different packaging between the two) and its two deluxe vinyl boxed sets (one with a branded hoodie and an album, and one with a branded T-shirt and an album). Though the streaming presence of Days Before Rodeo is fairly minimal compared to the album-wide dominance of Short N’ Sweet, that sales advantage might be massive enough – with Scott’s fanbase long proven to be willing to shell out for his physical releases – to get it back in the hunt on the Billboard 200 this week, and very possibly over the top for the first time.
IN THE MIX
Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace) (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope): Speaking of last week’s VMAs – they were led by MTV icon Eminem, who reassembled the Slim Shady Army from his classic 2000 performance of “The Real Slim Shady” for his show-opening performance of current hit “Houdini.” That song’s parent album, his career-bookending The Death of Slim Shady, should see a small bump from that performance next week – but will be helped out even more by a new deluxe edition of the set, which reached digital retailers and streamers on Friday, as well as the release of the album’s CD version, both in a wide general release, and as a d2c-exclusive version with an alternate album cover.
Miranda Lambert, Postcards From Texas (Vanner/Republic/Big Loud): Always good to get a new LP from country great Miranda Lambert, who has reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 with each of her last seven unaccompanied solo sets – most recently with the No. 4-charting Palomino in 2021. The album is available for sale on CD and vinyl, with signed copies also purchasable of both through her webstore.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard Hot 100 dated Sept. 14, we look at a race that’s been dominated by one song for about two months now – and what songs, if any, may be closing the gap in the near future.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Well, he narrowly lost out on Billboard’s official Song of the Summer to Post Malone and Morgan Wallen with “I Had Some Help” — another week or two and that race might’ve gotten really interesting – but Shaboozey can content himself that he’s held on at No. 1 for yet another week on the Hot 100. That’s eight weeks total now for “A Bar Song,” marking the longest run of 2024, and the longest for anyone since (again) Morgan Wallen, whose “Last Night” reigned for twice that long in 2023.
And it doesn’t appear to be fading much yet, either. It remains in the top five on Streaming Songs and atop atop both Digital Song Sales (12 weeks) and Radio Songs (five weeks). Its radio dominance also includes six weeks thus far atop the Country Airplay chart – one week away from passing Carrie Underwood’s “Jesus, Take the Wheel” for the longest-reigning country career-establishing No. 1 (defined as an artist’s first Country Airplay entry as a lead artist, or their initial song promoted to country radio) in the chart’s history. As long as its cross-platform dominance holds strong — it’s also been No. 1 the past two weeks on Adult Pop Airplay – it will remain a contender for the top spot; another artist is gonna have to really rise up to take the crown from it.
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Sabrina Carpenter, “Taste,” “Please Please Please” & “Espresso” (Island): Could Sabrina Carpenter be the artist to do that? She certainly has strength in numbers going for her: Carpenter holds the Nos. 2-4 spots on the Hot 100 this week (dated Sept. 7), as her Short n’ Sweet album conquers the Billboard 200 albums chart. Long-running hits “Please Please Please” (No. 1 peak) and “Espresso” (No. 3) shoot back up to Nos. 3 and 4 on the chart, respectively, while just above them, the brand-new “Taste” bows at No. 2, thanks in large part to a spicy new music video with TV and film star Jenna Ortega as its co-lead.
All three should be strong performers for some time. “Taste” remains atop essentially all major streaming charts – including Apple Music’s real-time listing, Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and YouTube’s Trending Music – over a week after its release, while “Please Please Please” climbs to No. 1 on Pop Airplay and “Espresso” holds at No. 3 on the overall Radio Songs chart. The biggest issue with Carpenter claiming the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot soon might be a kind of vote-splitting effect — particularly on the airwaves, where programmers simply have more songs of hers right now than they know what to do with.
“Taste” has momentum on its side, and is already nearing the 50-position Radio Songs listing. If it can pick up enough airplay before its streaming totals really start to drop, it could close the gap with “A Bar Song” before too long. In the meantime, an extra boost from Carpenter would help – like, say, with a memorable performance at the MTV Video Music Awards, where she’s scheduled to perform next Wednesday (Sept. 11).
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Meanwhile, momentum has hardly sagged at all for the new Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars duet – which falls to No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week thanks to the Sabrina surge, but holds in the top three on both Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs, and is already bounding up Radio Songs, jumping 45-36 this week. And despite falling on Streaming Songs post-Short n’ Sweet, it’s actually up in total streams for the week, and even hits No. 1 on both Billboard Global charts.
Will the song be in position to take over the Hot 100’s top spot when the Gaga-starring Joker: Folie a Deux – which “Smile” does not appear to be officially connected to, but which it does have some spiritual kinship with via its title – hits American theaters in October? Will it even have to wait that long?
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG) & Chappell Roan, “Good Luck Babe” (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Both of these now-long-running (if relatively slower-building) hits seem to have fallen behind in the race a bit, as they’ve been passed by the big-debuting “Taste” and “Smile.” But both are still definitely in the mix, with both holding in the top 10 on Streaming Songs, and “Birds” having reached the top 10 on Radio Songs, with “Babe” likely to join it there next week. The VMAs next week may also hold bump potential for both: Eilish is not performing but is a four-time nominee, while Roan is making her debut on the VMAs stage and is also up for four awards.