The Contenders
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated May 10, we look at the chances of Ghost’s Skeletá to top the chart – or whether a late-registering rap superstar may sneak in ahead of them.
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Ghost, Skeletá (Loma Vista): The masked-and-costumed Swedish hard rock outfit Ghost has steadily grown their profile stateside over the past decade and a half – even scoring a surprise Billboard Hot 100 hit in 2022 with the TikTok-favored “Mary on a Cross.” Each of their five studio albums has performed better than its predecessor on the Billboard 200, leading up to 2022’s No. 2-peaking Impera – which means there’s only one spot left for sixth album Skeletá, released last Friday (Apr. 25), to reach if the band wants to continue the trend.
Skeletá does not yet have a “Mary”-sized breakout hit, and its streaming presence will likely be relatively modest. But Ghost has long sold well, and the band’s latest is available for purchase in over a dozen vinyl variants — with different-colored and/or different-pictured records — as well as four cassette color variants, and as a digital download. For most of the week, it looked like that would be enough for Skeletá to likely stand virtually unopposed as the week’s top debut. However…
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Donda/Ye, Donda 2 (YZY) …a major new variable has emerged in the form of divisive rapper Ye‘s new re-release. While constantly under a cloud of controversy due to his recent drift towards hate speech, Ye (formerly Kanye West) has also remained a consistent commercial performer, with six-digit first-week unit bows for both of his Vultures 1 & 2 sets. Now, he doesn’t have a new set to a threaten the charts with, but he does have a reissue of an older album that has never been widely available before.
Upon its early 2022 release, Ye’s Donda 2 – sequel to his chart-topping, Grammy-nominated 2021 set – was only released via the Stem Player, and was not even considered eligible for the Billboard charts. Today (Apr. 30), the rapper has released the 18-track LP to DSPs like Spotify, Apple Music and Tidal, and has also made the set available for purchase on iTunes – allowing fans who didn’t make the investment in the album and/or the Stem Player the first time around to essentially get to experience it like a new release. (The album is technically credited to the artist “Donda” on these services.)
Of course, with the album’s Wednesday release, it will only have two days of tracking counting towards its performance on the upcoming Billboard 200, and Donda 2 was not particularly well-received by either the fans or the critics who did hear the album back in 2022. But even at yet another PR low point, Ye cannot ever be counted out on the Billboard 200 – he has 11 No. 1s on the chart, including both Donda and Vultures 1 this decade.
IN THE MIX
d4vd, Withered (Darkroom/Interscope): One of the more consistently buzzy performers in the alt-rock space this decade, the prodigious d4vd finally released his debut album Withered last Friday. The now-20-year-old’s LP includes the Hot 100 hit “Feel It” — originally released on the soundtrack to the Amazon Prime series Invincible – and is available in six different vinyl variants (as a 12-track set), on CD (14 tracks), on streaming (15 tracks), with each of those versions also available for digital download, and as an extended digital download (17 tracks). He’ll also profit from signed iterations of the vinyls and CD.
Tucker Wetmore, What Not To (Back Blocks/UMG Nashville): After scoring a pair of viral hits in “Wine Into Whiskey” and “Wind Up Missing You,” Tucker Wetmore quickly became one of the hottest names in country. Now he’s trying to capitalize on that early success with his debut album What Not To – which includes both those hits, as well as current country radio single “3,2,1,” among its 19 tracks. The album is available in multiple CD and vinyl variants (including four signed CDs), as well as 20- and 21-track extended d2c digital downloads.
Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Volume 54 (Rhino): The Dead’s Dave’s Picks series, always available in a limited-edition run of 25,000 total copies. remains a regular presence in the Billboard 200’s top 40, though it hasn’t gotten to the top 20 since Volume 45 back in January 2023. Regardless, the three-disc Volume 54 is out now, and features the band performing at the Baltimore Civic Center back in March 1973 – with some four-disc copies also including songs from the Dead’s show at Buffalo Memorial Auditorium earlier that month.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 3, we look at a number of songs threatening to end the now-nine-week reign of Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “Luther” — led by two of pop’s biggest hitmakers looking to score their second smash together.
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Morgan Wallen feat. Post Malone, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): Last year, Morgan Wallen helped officially introduce Post Malone to the country world with the duo’s teamup “I Had Some Help,” which topped the Hot 100 for six weeks and earned official Billboard Song of the Summer honors. That song, officially credited to Malone featuring Wallen, led the former’s full-length country pivot F-1 Trillion and helped turn that album into a chart-topper itself – so you know that now Wallen is returning with his own 37-track I’m the Problem set this May, Malone had to come return the favor.
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“I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” the duo’s credit-flipped new collaboration dropped on Friday (April 18) and also got off to a fast start on streaming and in sales. The song debuted atop the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, and quickly rose on the Apple Music and iTunes real-time charts as well. However, unlike “Help” — which absolutely blew past the competition in its first week of release, even during a particularly packed time for popular music — “Back” has already started to recede a little, down to No. 4 on Spotify and out of the top five on iTunes.
It seems unlikely the duo will make it two straight No. 1 debuts with “Back” — but they should be primed for another long Hot 100 run with the song, helped by a quick embrace by radio, where the song has already earned 2.2 million in all-format airplay audience in its first four days, according to Luminate, and could be looking at a top 40 debut on the Country Airplay chart, despite no official promotion to the format. It will join a listing already packed with Wallen hits, including fellow I’m the Problem advance tracks like the title track (No. 10 this week), “Just in Case” (Wallen’s latest country radio single, No. 11) and “Love Somebody” (No. 20), and still – now in its 49th week on the chart — “I Had Some Help” (No. 17).
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): During a largely static time on the Hot 100, one of the few songs providing consistent week-to-week movement has been Warren’s “Ordinary,” which first gained momentum on TikTok, and then exploded after he performed it on a reunion episode for season eight of Netflix’s hit reality show Love Is Blind. Last week, the song became Warren’s first career top 10 hit; this week, it becomes his first career top five hit, jumping 7-5 on the chart dated Apr. 26.
Could a No. 1 ranking be in the song’s future? Probably not in the next week or two, as the gap between it and Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s reigning “Luther” (nine weeks and counting) remains pretty large, but the song doesn’t seem to be slowing down, as it’s climbed all the way to No. 3 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and No. 7 on the Apple Music real-time chart. More crucially, it’s only really getting started at radio – debuting at No. 49 on Radio Songs this week and likely moving into the top 20 next week on Pop Airplay, still with plenty of room to grow there – making Warren a pretty solid candidate to be the first artist to score his first career No. 1 on the Hot 100 this year.
BigXthaPlug feat. Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way” (BigXthaPlug/Atlantic/ UnitedMasters): BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman have been enjoying the biggest breakout hit of their respective careers the past two weeks with “All the Way,” which launched an impressive No. 4 debut on the Hot 100 two weeks ago and slipped just to No. 8 in its second week, and remains a strong presence on streaming. Despite debuting atop Billboard’s Hot Country Songs ranking, the single has not yet been promoted to country radio – but it has picked up a bit of top 40 airplay, with SiriusXM stations across pop and hip-hop formats also supporting the song.
Drake, “Nokia” (Santa Anna/OVO/Republic): Drake’s much-needed bounceback hit made it all the way to No. 2 on the Hot 100, but has since stalled, dropping back to No. 3 on the chart. “Nokia” isn’t done yet, though – it’s still only really finding its footing on radio, where it reaches the R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay top 10 this week and is up 15% in all-format radio audience April 18-21. The song might still need one more big boost to get it over the top on the Hot 100 – an official remix, perhaps? — but it likely will remain in range of getting there for some weeks still to come.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 26, we look at the chances of rap sensation Ken Carson to depose his mentor in raging on the Billboard 200.
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Ken Carson, More Chaos (Opium/Interscope): It’s a week without a major charts-proven superstar releasing either a new album, or reissuing an old one – so that opens the door for a newer artist to sneak in and grab their first-ever No. 1 on the Billboard 200. That artist next week might end up being rapper Ken Carson, whose visceral rage rap has made him one of the rising stars of his generation since his emergence in the early 2020s.
Carson’s last album, 2023’s A Great Chaos, brought him to the top 10’s doorstep, reaching No. 11 on the Billboard 200. Follow-up More Chaos, released last Friday (Apr. 11), should get him to the region for the first time – helped by a streaming friendly 21-song tracklist, which littered the real-time Apple Music chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing upon its release, although a major breakout hit has yet to emerge from the set. It could even contend for the top spot – which could make for some (extremely minor) drama behind the scenes at Opium Records, as labelhead and emerging hip-hop superstar Playboi Carti currently holds pole position with his Music set, in its third week at No. 1.
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If Carson can’t get over the top this week, it might not be his last shot at doing so with More Chaos. The album is currently available for pre-order in his website in a variety of physical forms – including in standard-issue CD and vinyl, and in also multiple box sets also featuring an Ed Hardy collab T-shirt. Those physical editions are all scheduled to ship next Monday (Apr. 21) – which means their numbers would count towards the album’s second-week tally, likely giving it a considerable boost, and possibly putting it back in contention for the top spot if the release schedule once again proves light.
Bon Iver, SABLE, fABLE (Jagjaguwar): The only other album likely to make a major Billboard 200 next week comes from longtime indie favorite Bon Iver. The 2012 Grammy winner for best new artist is back this week with his fifth studio LP, SABLE, fABLE – a 13-track set, unevenly split into a folkier SABLE first side and the more R&B- and pop-influenced fABLE second side. While Bon Iver has collaborated with plenty of pop and hip-hop A-listers over the years, the only guests on his latest are more indie-oriented – Dijon and Flock of Dimes, who both appear on “Day One,” and Danielle Haim (of sister band HAIM) who features on “If Only I Could Wait.”
The album’s streaming profile should be relatively minimal, but it is expected to sell well – and is available on his website in vinyl, CD and cassette. His website also includes a variety of unusual complementary items to go with the new release, including a fABLE “Mood Mist” spray and candle, as well as SABLE, fABLE “Field Notes” notebooks and even a “Smoked Salmon Duo,” featuring “smoky, tender Atlantic salmon sourced from Kvarøy Arctic and hand-packed in Washington by a fifth-generation cannery” – though the latter product is already listed as sold out.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated April 19, we look at a number of albums threatening to end the seven-week reign of Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “Luther” — led by a recent rival’s own runaway hit.
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Drake, “Nokia” (Santa Anna/OVO/Republic): Well at this point, it’s official: Drake has another smash on his hands. Aided by the debut last Monday (March 31) of the song’s long-awaited, IMAX-filmed music video, “Nokia” jumps from No. 7 to a new peak of No. 3 on the Hot 100 this week – now making it the biggest hit from his and PartyNextDoor’s new collaborative album $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, passing the No. 6 peak of “Gimme a Hug,” and rating as his highest-peaking hit since 2013.
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Now, it’s a question of whether it could climb those last two spots to No. 1. It’s certainly trending in the right direction, as its streaming numbers continue to climb, with the song currently sitting atop both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. It’s also been lingering near the top of the iTunes realtime chart, after rebounding to No. 2 on the Digital Song Sales chart last week. And most crucially, it’s been growing on radio, debuting at No. 44 on Radio Songs this week and trending towards the top 40 for next week (up 32% in audience from March 4-7, according to Luminate).
That last part is where it has the most ground to make up if it’s going to have any shot at unseating the current longtime frontrunner – which just happens to be from Drake’s recent opponent on the mic, Kendrick Lamar, with SZA on the seven-week No. 1 “Luther.” That song tops Radio Songs for the first time this week, and should be widening its lead on the listing next week, while also still reigning on Streaming Songs. Drake’s got the momentum, but he’s going to probably have to keep riding it for a little while to replicate his Billboard 200 unseating of Lamar a couple months ago on the Hot 100.
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): One of the surprise breakout hits of 2025 has come from YouTuber-turned-performing artist Alex Warren. The California singer-songwriter has been climbing the Hot 100 in recent weeks with his ballad “Ordinary” — which first took off on TikTok, and then exploded after he performed it on a reunion episode for season eight of Netflix’s hit reality show Love Is Blind. Last week, the song became Warren’s first top 20 hit on the Hot 100, and this week, it jumps another six spots to No. 14 on the chart.
Next week, the song might have the top 10 in its sights. It continues to build on streaming, now residing in the top 10 on both the Apple Music real-time and Spotify daily charts, and has taken over the top spot on the iTunes real-time chart as well. Most crucially, radio is beginning to embrace “Ordinary,” with the song up 81% to more than four million in airplay audience March 4-7, according to Luminate, as it debuts at No. 31 on the Pop Airplay chart this week. The U.S. is just catching up to the rest of the world at this point, as “Ordinary” has already reached No. 3 on both Billboard Global charts, as well as topping the Official UK Singles chart for three weeks and counting.
BigXthaPlug feat. Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way” (UnitedMasters): BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman have both been frequent presences on the Hot 100 the past couple years, and now both look to potentially be headed for their biggest hit yet with their new collab. “All the Way,” expected to be the lead single from an upcoming country-themed set from rapper BigX, is off to an awesome start on streaming — rating in the top five on Spotify’s daily chart and behind only “Nokia” at No. 2 on Apple Music, while its domestic drama-and-monster-trucks-themed music video leads even “Nokia” on YouTube’s trending page for Music. The song hasn’t found its radio footing yet, but if it ever does, it looks like it could easily become one of the biggest hits of spring and summer.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case” (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): Morgan Wallen currently has five songs rating in the top 40 of the Hot 100 – including last year’s “Love Somebody” and Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help,” as well as newer cuts “I’m the Problem” and “I’m a Little Crazy.” But the one with the most momentum currently is probably “Just in Case,” which notches a second week in the top 10 at No. 8. this week, after debuting at No. 4. The song is still performing very well on DSPs, and has already started making inroads at radio, where it is likely to jump into the Country Airplay top 40 next week – meaning it could be peaking right around the time Wallen releases his highly anticipated fourth album I’m the Problem next month.
Billboard Women in Music 2025
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 12, we look at a number of albums looking to knock Playboi Carti’s two-week No. 1 from the top spot – led by a reissue from one of the 2024’s top pop stars.
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Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine (Republic): Ariana Grande’s sixth studio album is an already-certified hit: Eternal Sunshine debuted atop the Billboard 200 upon its release in March 2024, with over 200,000 first-week equivalent album units, according to Luminate, and spawned a pair of Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hits with advance single “Yes, And?” and Sunshine focus track “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” The album has stuck on the 200 for the last 55 weeks, still rating in the chart’s top half as of this frame.
Next week, however, it should make a large jump – possibly to the very top spot. On Friday (March 28), Grande released the album’s Brighter Days Ahead deluxe edition, which added six bonus songs to the streaming version of the 13-track release: one extended version of the album-opening “Intro (End of the World)” and five totally new songs. Those previously unreleased songs have been performing well on streaming, with “Twilight Zone” even topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the Friday of its release, and all six cuts still rating in the top half of the 200-position chart.
In addition, Grande has released a multitude of versions of the album for sale. Her webstore offers exclusive digital downloads of the 19-track Brighter Days Ahead reissue of the album, one with just that tracklist, one with the instrumentals of each track and one also with the a cappellas of each track (and all with alternate covers). Physical vinyl and CD variants are also available of the new edition, which include the three bonus tracks originally collected on the set’s (Slightly Deluxe) 2024 reissue. Grande has released a short film to promote the set, an emotional 26-minute mini-sci-fi flick also called Brighter Days Ahead.
Will it be enough to top Playboi Carti’s reigning No. 1, the streaming behemoth Music? It could come down to the wire, with Carti’s dominance on DSPs competing with Grande’s robust sales – and the race might not be over yet on either side.
Nav, OMW2 Rexdale (XO/Republic): Canadian rapper-singer Nav might not still be the regularly charting hitmaker he was at the turn of the 2020s, but his albums are still pretty well guaranteed to make an impact on the Billboard 200 – where he has two No. 1 sets to his name, and has charted in the top 10 with each of his last five sets. He’ll look to keep that streak alive with this week’s OMW2 Rexdale (or On My Way 2 Rexdale), which includes a number of big-name guests – including Metro Boomin, Don Toliver and the Billboard 200’s reigning champ Playboi Carti.
To do that, he’ll have the help of a number of physical variants, including standard and signed CDs, vinyl and four deluxe boxed sets containing the standard CD and branded clothing. In addition, Nav is offering a sextet of digital albums as exclusives through his webstore, each of with comes with the core 11-song set and a consistent trio of bonus tracks — and then three additional bonus tracks, which are different on each edition. (He’s also done in-store signings at brick-and-mortar retailers to help promote the new set.)
Without a major streaming hit to its credit, it all might not be enough for Rexdale to compete for No. 1 with Grande and Carti – but it should be enough for yet another Nav top 10, at the least.
Lil Durk, Deep Thoughts (Only the Family/Alamo/Sony): Deep Thoughts marks star rapper Lil Durk’s first full release since being arrested on murder-for-hire charges in late 2024. (He has pled not guilty and is currently awaiting trial.) While Durk is obviously not the dominant chart force he was earlier in the decade, Thoughts has unsurprisingly gotten off to a strong start on streaming, with its 17 tracks (including guest appearances from Future, Lil Baby and Jhené Aiko) all still ranking in the top 100 of Apple Music’s real-time chart. Streaming will have to make the great majority of Durk’s chart performance, however, since Deep Thoughts is currently only available to purchase as a digital download.
Mumford and Sons, Rushmere (Glassnote): Each of the three albums alt-folkers Mumford and Sons released in the 2010s went to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – most recently 2018’s Delta, the group’s most recent LP until last Friday. That was when the stomp-clappers released Rushmere, a 10-track set co-produced with country and Americana stalwart Dave Cobb, along with six vinyl variants, four CD editions and a cassette. The set’s title track has proven a top-five hit at rock radio, but the streaming response has thus far been muted – and though the band sells respectably, their blockbuster commercial peak is largely in the rearview at this point.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 5, we look at the chances of engaged performer-producer duo Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco’s collaborative set I Said I Love You First to unseat Playboi Carti’s Music atop the chart.
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Selena Gomez & Benny Blanco, I Said I Love You First (Friends Keep Secrets/Interscope): One of the most-anticipated pop sets of early 2025 comes from two longtime pop hitmakers: cross-platform megastar Selena Gomez and shapeshifting producer Benny Blanco. Last Friday (March 21), the pair – who have been sporadic collaborators for a decade and are now also a real-life couple who announced their engagement in December – released their first full album together, I Said I Love You First, following a whirlwind rollout.
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The set’s 14 tracks all of course feature vocals from Gomez and production from Blanco, but they’re hardly the only performers or behind-the-scenes contributors on the set. It also includes guest appearances from fellow contemporary stars Gracie Abrams (on the pre-release Billboard Hot 100 hit “Call Me When You Break Up”), J Balvin, GloRilla and The Marias, as well as writing and/or production assistance from recognizable names Finneas, Justin Tranter and Julia Michaels, Dylan Brady (of 100 Gecs) and Cashmere Cat. Even Charli XCX shows up to co-write and performs background vocals on “Bluest Flame,” like she did for Gomez’s hit “Same Old Love” a decade earlier.
The album is also available for purchase in a wide variety of physical formats. There are seven different vinyl variants for sale — color variants and some with alternate covers, and one signed version available on her webstore – as well as three CD versions (standard, signed and a Zine/CD in expanded packaging) and a deluxe box set containing branded merch and a CD. What’s more, five d2c-exclusive download album variants have been released on her store, each purchasable for $5 –- all featuring alternative covers, three with a single bonus track each (“Stained,” “Talk” or “That’s When I’ll Care (Seven Heavens Version)”), and one being a commentary edition with 14 bonus commentary tracks about the album’s songs.
Gomez is certainly no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200, having bested the chart with each of her three solo albums to date, going back to 2013’s Stars Dance. Whether she will continue the streak as half of this star duo remains to be seen, however – it will have a high bar to clear, coming during the second week of the year’s biggest-debuting hip-hop album to date, and it will be hurt by the lack of an established lead single or major breakout hit on streaming. But the album has picked up on DSPs over the course of its release week, with Marias teamup “Ojos Tristes” and buzzy post-breakup song “How Does It Feel to Be Forgotten” climbing into the top 100 on both the Apple Music real time and Spotify Daily Top Songs USA charts.
Playboi Carti, Music (AWGE/Interscope): Carti’s Music bowed atop this week’s Billboard 200 with an eye-opening 298,000 units, according to Luminate, confirming the cult rapper’s long-rising stardom and setting a new bar for hip-hop releases in 2025. The blockbuster set also blanketed the Hot 100, charting every one of its 30 tracks on the listing, with its two best performing tracks (“Evil J0rdan” and “Rather Lie” alongside The Weeknd) entering in the top five, at Nos. 2 and 4, respectively.
With no physical version of the album yet shipped to fans – the album is available for pre-order in eight separate variants on his website – the set’s performance was almost all due to streaming. (There were three digital album variants available on his webstore, along with a widely available standard edition download, which helped account for its 14,500 in first-week sales.) Music’s streaming numbers should remain mighty in the set’s second week, though it has begun to slip noticeably from its early dominance on DSPs – while the album absolutely dominated the real-time and daily listings on Apple Music and Spotify its weekend of release, it is now down to just two songs in the top 20 on both services, and neither in the top five on either.
However, reinforcements are on their way. On Tuesday (March 25), the rapper announced the release of the album’s deluxe edition – subtitled Sorry 4 Da Wait – which includes four totally new tracks tacked on the end (which were actually the bonus tracks he tacked onto his webstore exclusive download variants of the album a week ago), bringing the tracklist to a staggering 34 cuts, and ensuring fans have plenty of reason to revisit Music this week. Given the set’s ever-expanding streaming volume, it’s expected to post units in the six digits in its second week, and be a tough album for even a star duo like Gomez and Blanco to unseat atop the Billboard 200.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated March 29, we look at the chances of generational rap phenom Playboi Carti and breakout pop superstar Chappell Roan to take over the chart’s top spot.
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Playboi Carti, “Evil J0rdan” (AWGE/Interscope/ICLG): After years of delays that had longtime fans wondering if Playboi Carti would ever release the follow-up to 2020’s cult favorite Whole Lotta Red, Carti finally dropped the long-promised I Am Music set last Friday (March 14) — with its title surprisingly shorted to just “Music.” Arriving in the not-so-early morning, the sprawling new collection offered 30 tracks for the Carti faithful, boasting a guest list of such big names as The Weeknd, Travis Scott, Future, Lil Uzi Vert, Young Thug and even man-of-the-moment Kendrick Lamar.
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Despite the A-listers featured on the set, it’s a Carti solo track that’s in the early lead on streaming services. The booming “Evil J0rdan,” fourth of the 30 tracks, currently sits atop both the real-time Apple Music chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing, and ranks below just the new Bhad Bhabie diss video (!!) on YouTube’s Trending for Music ranking. The song should be in line for the chart’s top debut on the Hot 100, likely contending for an entrance in the top five.
Will it be enough to contend for No. 1? It will be tough for it to really challenge the currently reigning “Luther” without much radio support – which is tough enough to amass quickly for any new rap song, and doubly so for one by the often purposefully abrasive Carti, who has unsurprisingly never really found much of a foothold on the airwaves. (Thus far, the amount of airplay “J0rdan” has received has been negligible.)
Chappell Roan, “The Giver” (Amusement/Island): Few songs of 2025 will be as hotly anticipated as “The Giver,” the first brand-new drop from Chappell Roan since her rapid rise to superstardom over the course of 2024. In truth, “brand new” should come with a bit of an asterisk, as the country-flavored new song was first heard by fans last November, when Roan debuted the song as a musical guest on Saturday Night Live. But “The Giver” did not receive official release until late last Thursday, following a weeks-long rollout of interviews and Instagram posts and Times Square billboards in promotion of the new single.
Many chart-watchers wondered if all the excitement around Roan in 2024 and early 2025 would lead to a Hot 100 No. 1 debut with her first release back. That doesn’t seem particularly likely at this point for “The Giver,” which has ranked below multiple songs from Carti’s Music album on DSPs since its first full day of release on Friday – and which did briefly top the iTunes chart over the weekend, but has already fallen to No. 9 on that listing since. In fact, it isn’t even the highest-ranking Roan song on that ranking: “Pink Pony Club,” which hits a new peak of No. 7 on the Hot 100 this week, lands at No. 2 on the downloads chart, and also ranks above “The Giver” on Apple Music’s real-time listing.
Combined with its strong performance at radio – the song moves into the top five on Pop Airplay this week — “Pink Pony Club” should be ranking in similar territory to “The Giver” on the Hot 100 next week. But “The Giver” has already amassed 1.5 million audience impressions (across all formats), per Luminate — with just over 300,000 of those impressions coming from country stations – and should have a strong overall debut on the airwaves in its first full week.
Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Since taking over the Hot 100 in the weeks following Kendrick Lamar’s triumphant Super Bowl performance, “Luther” has proven fairly stable atop the chart – topping Streaming Songs for each of the last four weeks, while also climbing to No. 2 on Radio Songs, as it continues its cross-platform dominance. That should all continue next week, as “Luther” will likely give up its streaming crown but continue to gain on radio (and challenge for the top spot on Radio Songs), with its combination of stellar performance across the two platforms making it tough to unseat atop the Hot 100.
What’s more, Kendrick may add another few entries to his current Hot 100 takeover, as a featured guest on three strong-performing tracks on Playboi Carti’s Music: “Mojo Jojo,” “Backd00r” and “Good Credit.” Just another three on the pile for Lamar, who already boasts seven entries on the chart this week – including five in the top 20, and three (“Luther,” “Not Like Us” and “TV Off” with Lefty Gunplay) in the top five.
Drake, “Nokia” (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Though the chart unquestionably belongs to Lamar currently, it’s worth noting that his 2024-25 adversary also may be on his way to his biggest hit on the chart in years. Though “Nokia” was not the highest-debuting song from Drake’s recent full-length PartyNextDoor teamup LP $ome $exy $ongs 4 U – it bowed at No. 10, while “Gimme a Hug” entered at No. 6 – it has proven the longest-lasting, spending a third week inside the top 10 and even climbing to a new peak of No. 8 this frame, as it sits in the top six of the regular charts on Apple Music, Spotify and iTunes.
Radio has been relatively slow to pick up on “Nokia” — “Hug” was the initial focus track from the set for most radio formats – but it is starting to grow there as well, rising 31-24 on Rhythmic Airplay and debuting at No. 36 on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay this week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 22, we look at whether the latest album from one of the century’s greatest pop stars will return her to the top of the chart for the first time in five years.
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Lady Gaga, Mayhem (Interscope): For the first time since 2020, Lady Gaga has returned with a new album of original material. The long-anticipated Mayhem follows the pandemic-released Chromatica, and arrives on the back of a trio of advance singles: the solo top 30 Billboard Hot 100 hits “Disease” and “Abracadabra,” which lead off the new set, and the Hot 100-topping Bruno Mars duet “Die With a Smile,” which is included as the album’s closer.
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The well-reviewed album also comes following an absolute avalanche of 2025 promotional appearances, including performances at the Grammys, the FireAid benefit concert and the SNL 50th Anniversary Homecoming Concert, and video interviews with Apple Music’s Zane Lowe, Sean Evans of Hot Ones and Billboard’s own Stephen Daw, among many others. Gaga capped her epic Mayhem promo run last weekend by pulling double duty on Saturday’s SNL, both hosting the show and serving as its musical guest, delivering captivating performances of both “Abracadabra” and “Killah” off the new set.
The 14-track LP is also available for sale in a wide variety of physical formats, including a stunning 14 different vinyl variants – some of which are signed and some of which include the bonus track “Can’t Stop the High,” along with a Target exclusive that features the extra cut “Kill for Love.” There are also four different CD editions, with the same options of bonus tracks and a Gaga signature, as well as a deluxe CD box set with a branded T-shirt and poster and even a cassette version.
It’s all likely to put the Drake vs. Kendrick Lamar warring at the top of the Billboard 200 – which resulted in one of the closest races in recent years this week, with Lamar’s GNX ultimately reigning triumphant for a third nonconsecutive frame – to bed, as Mayhem seems a good bet to give Gaga her seventh No. 1 on the chart. It might end up falling short of the 274,000 units moved by Chromatica in its 2020 debut week – back then, merch and ticket bundles still counted towards Billboard chart calculations, and significantly boosted that album’s initial numbers – but it should still land comfortably in the six figures, and has a good chance of passing the 177,000 of Tate McRae’s So Close to What entrance for the best single-week performance for an album by a female artist in 2025.
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JENNIE, RUBY (Odd Atelier/Columbia): The recent rush of releases from BLACKPINK members reaches its end – presumably anyway – with the English-language solo debut LP from JENNIE. The star-studded RUBY includes collaborations with Dua Lipa, Dominic Fike, Childish Gambino, Kali Uchis, and of course Billboard Woman of the Year Doechii, whose “ExtraL” team-up with JENNIE graced the Hot 100 at No. 75 earlier this month. With a relatively muted streaming presence and no major breakout hits yet, RUBY is unlikely to challenge for the Billboard 200’s top spot, but should follow ROSÉ’s Number One Girl and Lisa’s Alter Ego to the chart’s top 10.
Jason Isbell, Foxes in the Snow (Southeastern): The latest effort from acclaimed Americana singer-songwriter Jason Isbell is his first in nearly 20 years to not include any contributions from his longtime backing band the 400 Unit. It’s not the only way he’s gone it solo recently, as the album was written in the wake of his divorce with former bandmate Amanda Shires, and was heavily influenced by the split. Isbell’s albums reliably sell well, and Foxes is available in both five vinyl variants and a pair of CD editions.
Spiritbox, Tsunami Sea (Pale Chord/Rise): Canadian heavy metal band Spiritbox turned a lot of chartwatchers’ heads four years ago when its debut set Eternal Blue managed a No. 13 debut on the Billboard 200 – a very impressive number for any hard rock band this decade, but particularly one without much history on the Billboard charts. This month, the now-Grammy-nominated quartet returns with Tsunami Sea, which is getting rave reviews and which is available for purchase on CD, cassette and at least nine vinyl variants.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 8, we look at the chances of Tate McRae’s So Close to What to become the pop hitmaker’s first album to top the chart.
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Tate McRae, So Close to What (RCA): For folks who had been missing the days when pop stars were Pop Stars, few rising artists in the genre were as exciting as Canadian dancer-turned-singer Tate McRae. While McRae first broke out in the early decade with the relatively downtempo “You Broke Me First,” it soon became clear she was more at home delivering high-energy pop music with creative music videos and top-notch choreography – evoking Ariana Grande with her 2023 smash “Greedy,” which hit the chart’s top five in early 2024, and even earning some Britney Spears comparisons on that song’s parent album, Think Later.
McRae has wasted no time in building on the moment from that set – which peaked at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 in December 2023 – with the release last Friday of her third album So Close to What. The 15-track set features guest appearances from rapper Flo Milli (“Bloodonmyhands”) and her hitmaker BF The Kid LAROI (“I Know Love”), as well as the advance singles “It’s OK I’m OK,” “2 Hands” and “Sports Car.” Each of those songs debuted in the top 40 of the Billboard Hot 100, further establishing McRae as one of the hottest artists in pop and helping to build hype for the new set.
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Could the album cap her years-long rise to stardom with a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200? McRae is certainly going for it: So Close is available for purchase in three different CD variants (one signed), a cassette, seven different vinyl variants (two signed) and even four different digital albums, including one version with an alternate cover and three bonus tracks: “Siren Sounds,” now also available on streaming, and the purchase-only “Better Than I Was” and “Call My Bluff.” In addition, McRae has been on something of a media blitz in the past week or so, appearing on The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon on Tuesday night, while also doing video interviews with Zane Lowe, AmEx, Jake Shane, iHeartRadio, Allure, Variety and Billboard.
The album is expected to sell well, and has also been off to a strong start streaming. McRae is pushing the set’s “Revolving Door” as a new single — releasing one of her physical and intricately choreographed videos yet along with it – and the song is performing very well out of the gate, ranking in the top 10 on both the Apple Music realtime chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. What’s more, the full album tracklist has been littering both listings since the album’s debut, with the majority of its 15 tracks still ranking in the top 100. It should all up to the biggest release week yet for McRae, with a bow likely in the six digits.
Will it be enough to get the album the top spot? Well, McRae shouldn’t face much competition from fellow new releases – no other sets released on Friday are expected to even threaten the top 10 – but of course, she’ll need to post a sizeable number to get past some of the LPs that have been regulars in the chart’s top tier the past week. Still, McRae has to like her chances of getting that No. 1, and of claiming a W for the old-school pop stars atop the charts this week.
PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): McRae’s strongest competition this week may come from a couple of her countrymen, with fellow Canucks PartyNextDoor and Drake reigning on the chart this week with their new collaborative set $ome $exy $ongs 4 U. The album — which includes the 6 God claiming “I feel like Tate McRae” on its “Small Town Fame” — will obviously drop in consumption following its 246,000-unit debut week, and as of publishing there haven’t been any new issues of the album to help goose second-week sales. But the album is still streaming pretty well, with “Die Trying,” “Gimme a Hug” and particularly “Nokia” hanging around as the set’s breakout hits. It may or may not be enough to fend off McRae from the top spot this week, but it should be enough to stave off any cackling about the album being a total one-week wonder.
Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Of course, there’s no mentioning Drake these days – or anyone else, really – without also mentioning the perpetually grinning Kung Fu Kenny, still on his victory lap following a triumphant 2024 that’s led into an even-more celebratory early 2025. We may have finally gone a weekend without “Not Like Us” being performed to a building full of celebrities rapping along to it, but Lamar still does have four of the top five songs in the country, three of which come from his late-2024 blockbuster GNX, which rates at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week and is likely to hang around the top of the chart essentially for the foreseeable future. In the mid-2020s, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City, and the road to the top of the Billboard charts goes through Kendrick Lamar.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 1, we look at the chances of Drake’s and PartyNextDoor’s new full-length teamup to knock the former’s recent rap opponent out of the chart’s top spot.
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PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Drake hasn’t been able to find a lot of wins since taking the consensus loss in his culture-conquering 2024 beef with Kendrick Lamar – the after-effects of which continue to permeate the culture on a weekly basis nearly a year later, with Lamar’s signature diss track “Not Like Us” recently winning five Grammys and serving as the centerpiece moment for the most-watched Super Bowl halftime show in history. But Drake may be due for a pretty big W shortly, following the release of his first full-length album since 2023’s For All the Dogs – the Valentine’s Day-released, R&B-focused $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, a teamup with longtime OVO labelmate and collaborator PartyNextDoor.
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The 21-track effort from the two Toronto natives unsurprisingly blanketed the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music real-time charts upon its release, even breaking the record for the biggest R&B/soul album in Apple Music’s history by first-day streams worldwide, and remains a major presence on both listings near the end of the tracking week. While many of the tracks have receded in daily streams since the set dropped, a couple have continued to grow, including the poppier mid-album cuts “Die Trying” and “Nokia,” the latter of which has also spent the majority of the week atop the iTunes real-time chart. The set is also being sold on CD via the album’s own website, with three variants of the CD case available for purchase.
Though the album might not match the first-week numbers of some past chart-conquering Drake projects – including the 404,000 first-week units posted by 2023’s Her Loss, his most recent full-length collaboration, alongside star rapper 21 Savage – it seems likely to return The Boy to No. 1, tying him with Jay-Z for the most Billboard 200 No. 1 albums of any rapper (with 14) and at least temporarily silence critics who declared him “done” following the feud. And of course, with Lamar’s GNX currently occupying the chart’s top spot, it could give him a much-needed triumph in the headlines over his perpetually victory-lapping foe.
Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Even if Drake takes the Billboard 200’s top spot next week, don’t expect Kendrick Lamar to disappear from the chart in the weeks after his Super Bowl performance. In fact, in his first full tracking week following that globally buzzed-about Feb. 9 show, Lamar’s streaming numbers should be even more robust, with performed hits from his 2024 blockbuster GNX like “Squabble Up,” “TV Off” and the SZA-featuring “Luther” continuing to be consumed en masse, and the latter even threatening Lamar’s own “Not Like Us” to take over the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week.
Could it potentially stave off $ome $exy $ongs in that set’s debut week, giving K-Dot one more KO in this now-largely one-sided battle? It doesn’t seem too likely, given the natural disadvantages the 12-track GNX faces in terms of total streams when compared to the 21-track $$$4U – and the fact that the set should slide in terms of sales next week, after the set’s physical release on cassette, vinyl and CD format two Fridays ago (Feb. 7) helped it sell over 100,000 copies for the tracking week ending Feb. 13. Still, with so many of its tracks reconfirmed as streaming monsters, the album is likely to hang around the chart’s upper tier in the weeks to come — meaning we could very easily see GNX return to No. 1 for a third time in a future slow-release week.
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet (Island): Speaking of 2024 blockbusters – another one that’s spent multiple weeks atop the Billboard 200 and hung around the top 10 for many months since should be due for some big gains next week. On Friday (Feb. 14), pop superstar Sabrina Carpenter released the deluxe edition of her four-week No. 1 Short n’ Sweet, expanding the 12-track set to 17 — with four entirely new songs, and a redo of the set’s Hot 100-topping “Please Please Please,” featuring guest vocals from country icon Dolly Parton.
The combination of the original set’s sustained streaming performance – it’s held in the lower half of the top 10 on the Billboard 200 for the whole of February – and the boost it should get from the new deluxe edition should make it one of the top contenders on the chart next week. The bonus cuts have all seen solid streaming bows, with “Busy Woman” in particular appearing to be something of a breakout hit, and the deluxe version of the album should also do well in physical sales, with the set available on her webstore in both azure- and pearl-colored vinyl, and on lipstick-marked CD.
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The Lumineers, Automatic (Dualtone): The arena-folk stars’ first new album since 2022’s Brightside doesn’t quite include the radio hits of previous sets, but does arrive during a time where a new wave of stomp-clappers led by Noah Kahan have reintroduced their signature sound to the mainstream – and is available for purchase in eight vinyl variants, including a signed edition. Each of The Lumineers’ four previous albums reached the Billboard 200’s top 10, though with streaming unlikely to offer a ton of help, the set will need to sell quite well to extend that streak to five.