The Contenders
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 7, we look at the chances of Morgan Wallen and Tate McRae’s star-powered duet to continue its reign on the chart.
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Morgan Wallen feat. Tate McRae, “What I Want” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): The combined star power of country superpower Morgan Wallen and rising pop phenom Tate McRae helped boost “What I Want” to being not just the highest-ranking of Wallen’s record-breaking 37 tracks on the Hot 100 last week, but the No. 1 song period – Wallen’s fourth and McRae’s first. The debut came on the back of 31.2 million official streams, according to Luminate, allowing it to bow atop the Streaming Songs chart and making up for its relative lack of radio presence as a new song.
That streaming presence should still be very pronounced in its second week, as the song continues to reign on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart and the Apple Music real-time chart. And the song is already starting to make a radio impact: After debuting at Nos. 32 and 38 on Adult Pop Airplay and Pop Airplay, respectively, on this week’s charts (dated May 31), it’s pushing toward the top 25 on both. (On Country Airplay, it debuted at No. 55 this week but looks likely to fall off next week – granted it’s being promoted so far only to pop and adult formats.)
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If the song can hold for a second week, it will become the first multi-week Hot 100 No. 1 from I’m the Problem, pulling past the one-week No. 1 “Love Somebody,” which topped the chart last November. (It would still have another 14 weeks to go to tie the longest-reigning single from prior album One Thing at a Time, the 16-week No. 1 “Last Night” in 2023.)
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): If not for Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem album debut, we might be talking about Alex Warren celebrating his first Hot 100 No. 1 single this week. After multiple frames of being at stuck at No. 2 behind Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther,” “Ordinary” finally moves ahead of that 13-week No. 1 – but still only ranks at No. 4 on this week’s chart, after falling behind three tracks from I’m the Problem.
Nevertheless, “Ordinary” should remain a strong contender for the top spot. It still ranks towards the top of the major streaming charts, and after reaching the Radio Songs top 10 this week, the song is now aiming for the top five; it’s up 16% in audience May 23-26 over the previous building week. It’s also challenging for No. 1 next week on Adult Pop Airplay, and could come for the crown on Pop Airplay not long after.
Meanwhile, Warren has a new song out in the Jelly Roll collab “Bloodline,” which should also be headed for a strong Hot 100 debut. But as shown with the success of recent artists like Teddy Swims and Benson Boone, having simultaneous follow-up hits can be more helpful than harmful to the original hits these days, so “Bloodline” doing well might boost “Ordinary” in its pursuit of the top spot.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case” and “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Morgan Wallen will still be seeing an awful lot of himself in the rearview mirror, as his solo songs that rank at No. 2 and 3 on the Hot 100 this week — “Just in Case” and “I’m the Problem,” respectively – should remain big factors on the chart next week as well. Though the two songs rank behind “What I Want” on DSPs, they still have the head start on radio: “Just in Case” continues climbing Country Airplay, though it could be still outside the top 10 next week, after rising to a new No. 13 high this week. Meanwhile, “I’m the Problem” has ruled Country Airplay for six weeks already, and could be on pace for a seventh week at No. 1.
If one of these other I’m the Problem tracks is able to pass “What I Want” on next week’s Hot 100, Wallen would replace himself on top for the first time in his career – becoming the first artist to do so since… Kendrick Lamar just a couple months ago, after a Super Bowl-rebounded “Not Like Us” gave way to “Luther” and its months-long reign.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 31, we look at the chances of “Lose Control” to set a record for chart endurance – if it can fend off a swarm of new Morgan Wallen chart hits, one of which may debut at No. 1.
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Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” (Warner): It’s been a staggering 91 weeks and counting on the Hot 100 for Teddy Swims’ crossover soul ballad “Lose Control.” Since the song debuted on the chart in August of 2023 (!!), it’s topped both the weekly chart (in March 2024) and the year-end Hot 100 (for all 2024), won a pair of Billboard Music Awards, and even been succeeded by another pair of top 40 hits in “The Door” and “Bad Dreams.” But all the while, “Lose Control” has lingered on the chart, scarcely losing momentum – and this week (on the chart dated May 24), spends a record-extending 62nd week inside the top 10, holding at No. 7.
This week also sees “Lose Control” tie Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves” for the longest total stay on the entire chart – and given its still-lofty position, it would seem a near-foregone conclusion that it would go on to break that mark next frame with a 92nd week. Complicating things, however, is the man who’s been most unmissable on the Billboard charts this decade: country superstar Morgan Wallen, whose new album I’m the Problem was released on Friday (May 16). Seven tracks from the album already appear on the Hot 100 this week – five of them in the top 25 – but the set’s full 37-track drop could add as many as 30 extra songs to the mix, some of them likely quite high.
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Could the new Wallen swarm really push “Lose Control” all the way off the chart? Well, it only would have to push it out of the top 25 – since the song has already spent over a year on the chart, Billboard‘s rules about recurrent entries on the Hot 100 mean that it would drop off the listing entirely if it dropped to No. 26 or lower. But since “Control” is still No. 7 this week, that would still take a mighty showing from Wallen’s latest – likely requiring about half the 37-track album to outperform it on the chart next week. A tall ask, and with the relatively steady radio and streaming support for “Lose Control,” it might not end up having too much of a Problem with Wallen after all.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case,” “What I Want” (with Tate McRae), “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Even if he doesn’t crowd Teddy Swims out of the Hot 100 top 25 next week, Wallen should launch his fair share of entries into the top 10 – including a couple that may be contending for No. 1. “Just in Case,” which debuted at No. 3 in April and sits at No. 11 this week, may be the frontrunner, as it has roosted at No. 2 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music’s real-time chart for most of the week following I’m the Problem’s release — and is also growing significantly in radio play, as Wallen’s latest single being promoted to country radio was up to 9.4 million in airplay audience for the first four days of this tracking week (May 16-19), according to Luminate, after debuting at No. 47 on the most recent Radio Songs listing.
It should receive some serious competition from albummate “What I Want,” however – Wallen’s duet with Tate McRae, marking the first time he’s sung with a female artist on an officially released track. While the brand-new collab is unsurprisingly slower-going on radio in its first week, it also is the lone song ranking above “Just in Case” on both Spotify and Apple Music this week. If it debuts in the Hot 100’s top two, it will mark the highest-ranking hit of Tate McRae’s career – with “Greedy” holding her previous high-water mark with its No. 3 peak in early 2024.
Also not to be counted out: the I’m the Problem title track, which is currently the highest-charting of Wallen’s eight Hot 100 entries, rating at No. 6 in its 15th week on the chart (after debuting at No. 2 back in February). The song also ranks in the top five on both the aforementioned DSP charts, while remaining Wallen’s top-performing song on radio – likely topping Country Airplay for a sixth week next frame, and holding in the top 15 on the all-format Radio Songs ranking.
Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG) & Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): The two songs that have been duking it out for No. 1 on the Hot 100 the past couple weeks – with “Luther” thus far reigning victorious – will likely find themselves on the undercard for the Hot 100 title fight next week following the waterfall of Wallen entries. However, as those I’m the Problem songs inevitably recede some in week two, Alex Warren and Kendrick Lamar & SZA could be back in the main event the week after. In the meantime, “Ordinary” should continue to close the all-important airplay gap, as it is up 21% in radio audience for the first four days of the tracking week (May 16-19) to 20.9 million, while “Luther” is down 3% to 35 million.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 24, we look at the chances of Alex Warren’s “Ordinary” to take over the top spot after 12 weeks of “Luther.”
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Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): It’s been the little song that could for 13 weeks now on the Hot 100: Alex Warren’s simultaneously folky and bombastic love song “Ordinary.” After catching some early viral heat, Warren – an influencer and former member of the Hype House collective – brought the song everywhere from the Love Is Blind reunion to Jelly Roll’s headlining set at the Stagecoach Music Festival, gradually turning it into a global smash. It tops the Billboard Global 200 for a second week on the chart dated May 17 – and now, it sets its sights on the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100.
“Ordinary” has already seized the top spot on two of the Hot 100’s three component charts: It has reigned for three weeks atop both Streaming Songs (up less than 1% to 21.6 million official U.S. streams this week, according to Luminate) and Digital Song Sales (down 11% to 6,000 sold). It has the most ground to make up still on radio – but it’s been doing exactly that, surging 34-27 on Radio Songs this week thanks to a 24% gain in radio audience, and is the greatest gainer in audience among all songs May 9-12, aiming to move into that chart’s top 20.
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With the Hot 100 dominated thus far in 2025 by superstars like Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Travis Scott, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars, “Ordinary” would make Alex Warren the first artist this year to top the Hot 100 for the first time if it moves to No. 1 – and Warren would be doing it with just his second-ever entry on the chart.
Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Its rule on the Hot 100 has practically been unchallenged to this point since it took over following the Super Bowl in early March, but “Luther” is finally starting to slip in its dominance. It drops in each of its radio play (down 4%), streams (7%) and sales (12%) metrics this week, though it remains a strong performer in each – even reigning on Radio Songs for a sixth frame. But it’s clearly on the downslope of its commercial run now, and it may cede the Radio Songs crown as soon as next week.
With “Luther” sliding and “Ordinary” still gaining, it seems like only a matter of time before the latter supplants the former atop the Hot 100. Regardless, whenever it happens, “Luther” has already proven historic in its 12-week rule, setting the all-time mark for most time at No. 1 for a duet between co-billed lead solo male and female artists, and the decade-best run for a 2020s rap song.
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Doechii, “Anxiety” (Top Dawg/Capitol/ICLG): Not too far behind “Luther” on the Hot 100 this week is another song from the TDE family — “Anxiety,” Doechii’s first top 10 hit, which reaches a new high of No. 9 on the chart. The gains are mostly due to a rising radio audience, as the Gotye & Kimbra-sampling song moves 3-2 on Radio Songs, and seems likely to take over – potentially as soon as next week – as her first No. 1 on the chart. The question of how much further it could go on the Hot 100 likely comes down to whether it can gain fast enough and strong enough on radio to offset its declining streaming, as the song drops from No. 27 to No. 34 on this week’s Streaming Songs listing.
Jessie Murph, “Blue Strips” (Columbia): One of the real breakout hits of the spring has been singer-songwriter Jessie Murph’s super-viral “Blue Strips,” with the hybrid country/trap/pop song bounding up the Hot 100 from No. 81 all the way to No. 15 this week in just four frames total on the chart. The song has already rocketed to the top five on Streaming Songs, and now is just starting to get going on radio, and aims to become her first-ever unaccompanied solo entry on next week’s Pop Airplay chart. It’s already Murph’s highest-peaking hit of any kind on the Hot 100, and if it continues to catch on the airwaves, the top 10 will surely be in the song’s sights before long.
Morgan Wallen, “Superman” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Released on Friday (May 9), “Superman” is the eighth and final advance release from Wallen’s upcoming I’m the Problem album – don’t worry, still 29 totally new songs where those came from – and has gotten off to a predictably good start on streaming. That’ll probably be it for now for “Superman” as a focus track, since Wallen already has multiple active singles on streaming and radio (as well as five tracks currently residing in the Hot 100’s top 40), but the song should at the very least make a strong debut on the Hot 100, further prepping chartwatchers for the absolute Wallen onslaught due following the release of the full I’m the Problem next week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated May 17, we look at the chances of Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos to reclaim the chart’s top spot now that the set’s vinyl has finally shipped.
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Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): Bad Bunny’s sixth solo studio album has unquestionably been one of the biggest hits of 2025, spending three consecutive weeks atop the Billboard 200 in January and February, and still residing in the chart’s top 10 three months later. The set stands at No. 7 on this week’s listing (dated May 10), but may very well be headed back to a fourth total frame at pole position next week.
That jump should be coming thanks to the set’s long-awaited release on vinyl – pre-orders for which were started back in February, but which is only shipping to customers this week. The album was sold on his webstore in a double-vinyl gatefold edition, and had been estimated to ship sometime around the end of April. The physical release is now sold out on Bad Bunny’s webstore — with no plans yet announced for future availability – but the sales boost from it, combined with the set’s continued streaming success, should be enough to put it back in heavy contention for the Billboard 200’s top spot next week.
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If Fotos does capture a fourth week atop the chart, that will break its tie with SZA’s SOS and Playboi Carti’s Music for the longest-reigning album on the chart in 2025 – though it will still be nine weeks shy of the 13-week run of Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti in 2022 for the longest of the singer-rapper’s career.
Fuerza Regida, 111xpantia (Street Mob/Rancho Humilde/Sony Music Latin): If there is a brand- new album that could provide competition for Bad Bunny on the Billboard 200 this week, it’s likely the latest from música Mexicana star quintet Fuerza Regida. Last Friday (May 2), the group released ninth album 111xpantia — which runs a modest 12 tracks and includes no features on its standard edition but does boast the Billboard Hot 100 hit “Por Esos Ojos,” and follows the group’s Mala Mia EP teamup with fellow hitmakers Grupo Frontera, including the breakout single “Me Jalo.”
Just as importantly, while many of Fuerza Regida’s previous sets were only available digitally, 111xpantia is getting the full physical push, via the band’s webstore. The album has been released as four different-colored vinyl variants, as well as both a standard and signed CD (by singer Jesús Ortíz Paz) – all with the same standard tracklist – and four deluxe boxed sets, all with a signed CD, but two with a T-shirt and two with a hat. Meanwhile, the set was also issued on a deluxe digital edition, initially released only for sale through the webstore, but later to all digital retailers and DSPs.
It may not be enough to fend off a big name like Bad Bunny, but it should likely get the group its first top 10 album on the Billboard 200, after previously peaking at No. 14 with 2023’s Pa Las Baby’s y Belikeada.
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Key Glock, Glockaveli (Paper Route Empire/Republic): Long-rising rapper Key Glock’s first album since signing to major label Republic, Glockaveli includes 18 tracks but no features – which Glock has explained he doesn’t like hosting on his albums – on its standard edition, with an extra three tracks coming on the deluxe (subtitled The Don). The set is also available on CD and vinyl and via various package sets with additional merch on his webstore. Key Glock’s previous best performance on the chart came with 2022’s Yellow Tape 2, which peaked at No. 7.
Eric Church, Evangeline vs. The Machine (EMI Nashville): Country star Eric Church has hit the Billboard 200’s top five with each of his last seven studio albums – a streak that began in the early 2010s with the No. 1-reaching Chief (2011) and The Outsiders (2013). That run may be ending with this month’s Evangeline vs. The Machine, which only runs eight tracks and has only one minor Hot 100 hit in the No. 94-peaking “Hands of Time” to its credit so far – though its sales numbers should be helped by its availability for purchase in four vinyl variants, as well as a standard CD, and a boxed set with a shirt and CD.
Pink Floyd, Pink Floyd at Pompeii – MCMLXXII (Pink Floyd Music/Sony): Originally released as a documentary concert film back in 1972 – just before the band’s true stateside breakout with the release of blockbuster prog-rock opus The Dark Side of the Moon – Pink Floyd’s famous show at the ancient Roman amphitheater in Pompeii, Italy not only gets a theatrical release this year, but also an audio reissue this month on vinyl and CD, and for streaming and digital download. The 11-track, two-disc set includes early Floyd classics like “One of These Days,” “Set the Controls for the Heart of the Sun” and a version of the epic “Echoes” split into two separate parts, both of course lasting over 10 minutes.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated May 10, we look at the chances of Ghost’s Skeletá to top the chart – or whether a late-registering rap superstar may sneak in ahead of them.
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Ghost, Skeletá (Loma Vista): The masked-and-costumed Swedish hard rock outfit Ghost has steadily grown their profile stateside over the past decade and a half – even scoring a surprise Billboard Hot 100 hit in 2022 with the TikTok-favored “Mary on a Cross.” Each of their five studio albums has performed better than its predecessor on the Billboard 200, leading up to 2022’s No. 2-peaking Impera – which means there’s only one spot left for sixth album Skeletá, released last Friday (Apr. 25), to reach if the band wants to continue the trend.
Skeletá does not yet have a “Mary”-sized breakout hit, and its streaming presence will likely be relatively modest. But Ghost has long sold well, and the band’s latest is available for purchase in over a dozen vinyl variants — with different-colored and/or different-pictured records — as well as four cassette color variants, and as a digital download. For most of the week, it looked like that would be enough for Skeletá to likely stand virtually unopposed as the week’s top debut. However…
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Donda/Ye, Donda 2 (YZY) …a major new variable has emerged in the form of divisive rapper Ye‘s new re-release. While constantly under a cloud of controversy due to his recent drift towards hate speech, Ye (formerly Kanye West) has also remained a consistent commercial performer, with six-digit first-week unit bows for both of his Vultures 1 & 2 sets. Now, he doesn’t have a new set to a threaten the charts with, but he does have a reissue of an older album that has never been widely available before.
Upon its early 2022 release, Ye’s Donda 2 – sequel to his chart-topping, Grammy-nominated 2021 set – was only released via the Stem Player, and was not even considered eligible for the Billboard charts. Today (Apr. 30), the rapper has released the 18-track LP to DSPs like Spotify, Apple Music and Tidal, and has also made the set available for purchase on iTunes – allowing fans who didn’t make the investment in the album and/or the Stem Player the first time around to essentially get to experience it like a new release. (The album is technically credited to the artist “Donda” on these services.)
Of course, with the album’s Wednesday release, it will only have two days of tracking counting towards its performance on the upcoming Billboard 200, and Donda 2 was not particularly well-received by either the fans or the critics who did hear the album back in 2022. But even at yet another PR low point, Ye cannot ever be counted out on the Billboard 200 – he has 11 No. 1s on the chart, including both Donda and Vultures 1 this decade.
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d4vd, Withered (Darkroom/Interscope): One of the more consistently buzzy performers in the alt-rock space this decade, the prodigious d4vd finally released his debut album Withered last Friday. The now-20-year-old’s LP includes the Hot 100 hit “Feel It” — originally released on the soundtrack to the Amazon Prime series Invincible – and is available in six different vinyl variants (as a 12-track set), on CD (14 tracks), on streaming (15 tracks), with each of those versions also available for digital download, and as an extended digital download (17 tracks). He’ll also profit from signed iterations of the vinyls and CD.
Tucker Wetmore, What Not To (Back Blocks/UMG Nashville): After scoring a pair of viral hits in “Wine Into Whiskey” and “Wind Up Missing You,” Tucker Wetmore quickly became one of the hottest names in country. Now he’s trying to capitalize on that early success with his debut album What Not To – which includes both those hits, as well as current country radio single “3,2,1,” among its 19 tracks. The album is available in multiple CD and vinyl variants (including four signed CDs), as well as 20- and 21-track extended d2c digital downloads.
Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Volume 54 (Rhino): The Dead’s Dave’s Picks series, always available in a limited-edition run of 25,000 total copies. remains a regular presence in the Billboard 200’s top 40, though it hasn’t gotten to the top 20 since Volume 45 back in January 2023. Regardless, the three-disc Volume 54 is out now, and features the band performing at the Baltimore Civic Center back in March 1973 – with some four-disc copies also including songs from the Dead’s show at Buffalo Memorial Auditorium earlier that month.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 3, we look at a number of songs threatening to end the now-nine-week reign of Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “Luther” — led by two of pop’s biggest hitmakers looking to score their second smash together.
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Morgan Wallen feat. Post Malone, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): Last year, Morgan Wallen helped officially introduce Post Malone to the country world with the duo’s teamup “I Had Some Help,” which topped the Hot 100 for six weeks and earned official Billboard Song of the Summer honors. That song, officially credited to Malone featuring Wallen, led the former’s full-length country pivot F-1 Trillion and helped turn that album into a chart-topper itself – so you know that now Wallen is returning with his own 37-track I’m the Problem set this May, Malone had to come return the favor.
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“I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” the duo’s credit-flipped new collaboration dropped on Friday (April 18) and also got off to a fast start on streaming and in sales. The song debuted atop the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, and quickly rose on the Apple Music and iTunes real-time charts as well. However, unlike “Help” — which absolutely blew past the competition in its first week of release, even during a particularly packed time for popular music — “Back” has already started to recede a little, down to No. 4 on Spotify and out of the top five on iTunes.
It seems unlikely the duo will make it two straight No. 1 debuts with “Back” — but they should be primed for another long Hot 100 run with the song, helped by a quick embrace by radio, where the song has already earned 2.2 million in all-format airplay audience in its first four days, according to Luminate, and could be looking at a top 40 debut on the Country Airplay chart, despite no official promotion to the format. It will join a listing already packed with Wallen hits, including fellow I’m the Problem advance tracks like the title track (No. 10 this week), “Just in Case” (Wallen’s latest country radio single, No. 11) and “Love Somebody” (No. 20), and still – now in its 49th week on the chart — “I Had Some Help” (No. 17).
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): During a largely static time on the Hot 100, one of the few songs providing consistent week-to-week movement has been Warren’s “Ordinary,” which first gained momentum on TikTok, and then exploded after he performed it on a reunion episode for season eight of Netflix’s hit reality show Love Is Blind. Last week, the song became Warren’s first career top 10 hit; this week, it becomes his first career top five hit, jumping 7-5 on the chart dated Apr. 26.
Could a No. 1 ranking be in the song’s future? Probably not in the next week or two, as the gap between it and Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s reigning “Luther” (nine weeks and counting) remains pretty large, but the song doesn’t seem to be slowing down, as it’s climbed all the way to No. 3 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and No. 7 on the Apple Music real-time chart. More crucially, it’s only really getting started at radio – debuting at No. 49 on Radio Songs this week and likely moving into the top 20 next week on Pop Airplay, still with plenty of room to grow there – making Warren a pretty solid candidate to be the first artist to score his first career No. 1 on the Hot 100 this year.
BigXthaPlug feat. Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way” (BigXthaPlug/Atlantic/ UnitedMasters): BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman have been enjoying the biggest breakout hit of their respective careers the past two weeks with “All the Way,” which launched an impressive No. 4 debut on the Hot 100 two weeks ago and slipped just to No. 8 in its second week, and remains a strong presence on streaming. Despite debuting atop Billboard’s Hot Country Songs ranking, the single has not yet been promoted to country radio – but it has picked up a bit of top 40 airplay, with SiriusXM stations across pop and hip-hop formats also supporting the song.
Drake, “Nokia” (Santa Anna/OVO/Republic): Drake’s much-needed bounceback hit made it all the way to No. 2 on the Hot 100, but has since stalled, dropping back to No. 3 on the chart. “Nokia” isn’t done yet, though – it’s still only really finding its footing on radio, where it reaches the R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay top 10 this week and is up 15% in all-format radio audience April 18-21. The song might still need one more big boost to get it over the top on the Hot 100 – an official remix, perhaps? — but it likely will remain in range of getting there for some weeks still to come.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 26, we look at the chances of rap sensation Ken Carson to depose his mentor in raging on the Billboard 200.
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Ken Carson, More Chaos (Opium/Interscope): It’s a week without a major charts-proven superstar releasing either a new album, or reissuing an old one – so that opens the door for a newer artist to sneak in and grab their first-ever No. 1 on the Billboard 200. That artist next week might end up being rapper Ken Carson, whose visceral rage rap has made him one of the rising stars of his generation since his emergence in the early 2020s.
Carson’s last album, 2023’s A Great Chaos, brought him to the top 10’s doorstep, reaching No. 11 on the Billboard 200. Follow-up More Chaos, released last Friday (Apr. 11), should get him to the region for the first time – helped by a streaming friendly 21-song tracklist, which littered the real-time Apple Music chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing upon its release, although a major breakout hit has yet to emerge from the set. It could even contend for the top spot – which could make for some (extremely minor) drama behind the scenes at Opium Records, as labelhead and emerging hip-hop superstar Playboi Carti currently holds pole position with his Music set, in its third week at No. 1.
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If Carson can’t get over the top this week, it might not be his last shot at doing so with More Chaos. The album is currently available for pre-order in his website in a variety of physical forms – including in standard-issue CD and vinyl, and in also multiple box sets also featuring an Ed Hardy collab T-shirt. Those physical editions are all scheduled to ship next Monday (Apr. 21) – which means their numbers would count towards the album’s second-week tally, likely giving it a considerable boost, and possibly putting it back in contention for the top spot if the release schedule once again proves light.
Bon Iver, SABLE, fABLE (Jagjaguwar): The only other album likely to make a major Billboard 200 next week comes from longtime indie favorite Bon Iver. The 2012 Grammy winner for best new artist is back this week with his fifth studio LP, SABLE, fABLE – a 13-track set, unevenly split into a folkier SABLE first side and the more R&B- and pop-influenced fABLE second side. While Bon Iver has collaborated with plenty of pop and hip-hop A-listers over the years, the only guests on his latest are more indie-oriented – Dijon and Flock of Dimes, who both appear on “Day One,” and Danielle Haim (of sister band HAIM) who features on “If Only I Could Wait.”
The album’s streaming profile should be relatively minimal, but it is expected to sell well – and is available on his website in vinyl, CD and cassette. His website also includes a variety of unusual complementary items to go with the new release, including a fABLE “Mood Mist” spray and candle, as well as SABLE, fABLE “Field Notes” notebooks and even a “Smoked Salmon Duo,” featuring “smoky, tender Atlantic salmon sourced from Kvarøy Arctic and hand-packed in Washington by a fifth-generation cannery” – though the latter product is already listed as sold out.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated April 19, we look at a number of albums threatening to end the seven-week reign of Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “Luther” — led by a recent rival’s own runaway hit.
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Drake, “Nokia” (Santa Anna/OVO/Republic): Well at this point, it’s official: Drake has another smash on his hands. Aided by the debut last Monday (March 31) of the song’s long-awaited, IMAX-filmed music video, “Nokia” jumps from No. 7 to a new peak of No. 3 on the Hot 100 this week – now making it the biggest hit from his and PartyNextDoor’s new collaborative album $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, passing the No. 6 peak of “Gimme a Hug,” and rating as his highest-peaking hit since 2013.
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Now, it’s a question of whether it could climb those last two spots to No. 1. It’s certainly trending in the right direction, as its streaming numbers continue to climb, with the song currently sitting atop both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. It’s also been lingering near the top of the iTunes realtime chart, after rebounding to No. 2 on the Digital Song Sales chart last week. And most crucially, it’s been growing on radio, debuting at No. 44 on Radio Songs this week and trending towards the top 40 for next week (up 32% in audience from March 4-7, according to Luminate).
That last part is where it has the most ground to make up if it’s going to have any shot at unseating the current longtime frontrunner – which just happens to be from Drake’s recent opponent on the mic, Kendrick Lamar, with SZA on the seven-week No. 1 “Luther.” That song tops Radio Songs for the first time this week, and should be widening its lead on the listing next week, while also still reigning on Streaming Songs. Drake’s got the momentum, but he’s going to probably have to keep riding it for a little while to replicate his Billboard 200 unseating of Lamar a couple months ago on the Hot 100.
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): One of the surprise breakout hits of 2025 has come from YouTuber-turned-performing artist Alex Warren. The California singer-songwriter has been climbing the Hot 100 in recent weeks with his ballad “Ordinary” — which first took off on TikTok, and then exploded after he performed it on a reunion episode for season eight of Netflix’s hit reality show Love Is Blind. Last week, the song became Warren’s first top 20 hit on the Hot 100, and this week, it jumps another six spots to No. 14 on the chart.
Next week, the song might have the top 10 in its sights. It continues to build on streaming, now residing in the top 10 on both the Apple Music real-time and Spotify daily charts, and has taken over the top spot on the iTunes real-time chart as well. Most crucially, radio is beginning to embrace “Ordinary,” with the song up 81% to more than four million in airplay audience March 4-7, according to Luminate, as it debuts at No. 31 on the Pop Airplay chart this week. The U.S. is just catching up to the rest of the world at this point, as “Ordinary” has already reached No. 3 on both Billboard Global charts, as well as topping the Official UK Singles chart for three weeks and counting.
BigXthaPlug feat. Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way” (UnitedMasters): BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman have both been frequent presences on the Hot 100 the past couple years, and now both look to potentially be headed for their biggest hit yet with their new collab. “All the Way,” expected to be the lead single from an upcoming country-themed set from rapper BigX, is off to an awesome start on streaming — rating in the top five on Spotify’s daily chart and behind only “Nokia” at No. 2 on Apple Music, while its domestic drama-and-monster-trucks-themed music video leads even “Nokia” on YouTube’s trending page for Music. The song hasn’t found its radio footing yet, but if it ever does, it looks like it could easily become one of the biggest hits of spring and summer.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case” (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): Morgan Wallen currently has five songs rating in the top 40 of the Hot 100 – including last year’s “Love Somebody” and Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help,” as well as newer cuts “I’m the Problem” and “I’m a Little Crazy.” But the one with the most momentum currently is probably “Just in Case,” which notches a second week in the top 10 at No. 8. this week, after debuting at No. 4. The song is still performing very well on DSPs, and has already started making inroads at radio, where it is likely to jump into the Country Airplay top 40 next week – meaning it could be peaking right around the time Wallen releases his highly anticipated fourth album I’m the Problem next month.
Billboard Women in Music 2025
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 12, we look at a number of albums looking to knock Playboi Carti’s two-week No. 1 from the top spot – led by a reissue from one of the 2024’s top pop stars.
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Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine (Republic): Ariana Grande’s sixth studio album is an already-certified hit: Eternal Sunshine debuted atop the Billboard 200 upon its release in March 2024, with over 200,000 first-week equivalent album units, according to Luminate, and spawned a pair of Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hits with advance single “Yes, And?” and Sunshine focus track “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” The album has stuck on the 200 for the last 55 weeks, still rating in the chart’s top half as of this frame.
Next week, however, it should make a large jump – possibly to the very top spot. On Friday (March 28), Grande released the album’s Brighter Days Ahead deluxe edition, which added six bonus songs to the streaming version of the 13-track release: one extended version of the album-opening “Intro (End of the World)” and five totally new songs. Those previously unreleased songs have been performing well on streaming, with “Twilight Zone” even topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the Friday of its release, and all six cuts still rating in the top half of the 200-position chart.
In addition, Grande has released a multitude of versions of the album for sale. Her webstore offers exclusive digital downloads of the 19-track Brighter Days Ahead reissue of the album, one with just that tracklist, one with the instrumentals of each track and one also with the a cappellas of each track (and all with alternate covers). Physical vinyl and CD variants are also available of the new edition, which include the three bonus tracks originally collected on the set’s (Slightly Deluxe) 2024 reissue. Grande has released a short film to promote the set, an emotional 26-minute mini-sci-fi flick also called Brighter Days Ahead.
Will it be enough to top Playboi Carti’s reigning No. 1, the streaming behemoth Music? It could come down to the wire, with Carti’s dominance on DSPs competing with Grande’s robust sales – and the race might not be over yet on either side.
Nav, OMW2 Rexdale (XO/Republic): Canadian rapper-singer Nav might not still be the regularly charting hitmaker he was at the turn of the 2020s, but his albums are still pretty well guaranteed to make an impact on the Billboard 200 – where he has two No. 1 sets to his name, and has charted in the top 10 with each of his last five sets. He’ll look to keep that streak alive with this week’s OMW2 Rexdale (or On My Way 2 Rexdale), which includes a number of big-name guests – including Metro Boomin, Don Toliver and the Billboard 200’s reigning champ Playboi Carti.
To do that, he’ll have the help of a number of physical variants, including standard and signed CDs, vinyl and four deluxe boxed sets containing the standard CD and branded clothing. In addition, Nav is offering a sextet of digital albums as exclusives through his webstore, each of with comes with the core 11-song set and a consistent trio of bonus tracks — and then three additional bonus tracks, which are different on each edition. (He’s also done in-store signings at brick-and-mortar retailers to help promote the new set.)
Without a major streaming hit to its credit, it all might not be enough for Rexdale to compete for No. 1 with Grande and Carti – but it should be enough for yet another Nav top 10, at the least.
Lil Durk, Deep Thoughts (Only the Family/Alamo/Sony): Deep Thoughts marks star rapper Lil Durk’s first full release since being arrested on murder-for-hire charges in late 2024. (He has pled not guilty and is currently awaiting trial.) While Durk is obviously not the dominant chart force he was earlier in the decade, Thoughts has unsurprisingly gotten off to a strong start on streaming, with its 17 tracks (including guest appearances from Future, Lil Baby and Jhené Aiko) all still ranking in the top 100 of Apple Music’s real-time chart. Streaming will have to make the great majority of Durk’s chart performance, however, since Deep Thoughts is currently only available to purchase as a digital download.
Mumford and Sons, Rushmere (Glassnote): Each of the three albums alt-folkers Mumford and Sons released in the 2010s went to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – most recently 2018’s Delta, the group’s most recent LP until last Friday. That was when the stomp-clappers released Rushmere, a 10-track set co-produced with country and Americana stalwart Dave Cobb, along with six vinyl variants, four CD editions and a cassette. The set’s title track has proven a top-five hit at rock radio, but the streaming response has thus far been muted – and though the band sells respectably, their blockbuster commercial peak is largely in the rearview at this point.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 5, we look at the chances of engaged performer-producer duo Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco’s collaborative set I Said I Love You First to unseat Playboi Carti’s Music atop the chart.
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See latest videos, charts and news
Selena Gomez & Benny Blanco, I Said I Love You First (Friends Keep Secrets/Interscope): One of the most-anticipated pop sets of early 2025 comes from two longtime pop hitmakers: cross-platform megastar Selena Gomez and shapeshifting producer Benny Blanco. Last Friday (March 21), the pair – who have been sporadic collaborators for a decade and are now also a real-life couple who announced their engagement in December – released their first full album together, I Said I Love You First, following a whirlwind rollout.
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The set’s 14 tracks all of course feature vocals from Gomez and production from Blanco, but they’re hardly the only performers or behind-the-scenes contributors on the set. It also includes guest appearances from fellow contemporary stars Gracie Abrams (on the pre-release Billboard Hot 100 hit “Call Me When You Break Up”), J Balvin, GloRilla and The Marias, as well as writing and/or production assistance from recognizable names Finneas, Justin Tranter and Julia Michaels, Dylan Brady (of 100 Gecs) and Cashmere Cat. Even Charli XCX shows up to co-write and performs background vocals on “Bluest Flame,” like she did for Gomez’s hit “Same Old Love” a decade earlier.
The album is also available for purchase in a wide variety of physical formats. There are seven different vinyl variants for sale — color variants and some with alternate covers, and one signed version available on her webstore – as well as three CD versions (standard, signed and a Zine/CD in expanded packaging) and a deluxe box set containing branded merch and a CD. What’s more, five d2c-exclusive download album variants have been released on her store, each purchasable for $5 –- all featuring alternative covers, three with a single bonus track each (“Stained,” “Talk” or “That’s When I’ll Care (Seven Heavens Version)”), and one being a commentary edition with 14 bonus commentary tracks about the album’s songs.
Gomez is certainly no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200, having bested the chart with each of her three solo albums to date, going back to 2013’s Stars Dance. Whether she will continue the streak as half of this star duo remains to be seen, however – it will have a high bar to clear, coming during the second week of the year’s biggest-debuting hip-hop album to date, and it will be hurt by the lack of an established lead single or major breakout hit on streaming. But the album has picked up on DSPs over the course of its release week, with Marias teamup “Ojos Tristes” and buzzy post-breakup song “How Does It Feel to Be Forgotten” climbing into the top 100 on both the Apple Music real time and Spotify Daily Top Songs USA charts.
Playboi Carti, Music (AWGE/Interscope): Carti’s Music bowed atop this week’s Billboard 200 with an eye-opening 298,000 units, according to Luminate, confirming the cult rapper’s long-rising stardom and setting a new bar for hip-hop releases in 2025. The blockbuster set also blanketed the Hot 100, charting every one of its 30 tracks on the listing, with its two best performing tracks (“Evil J0rdan” and “Rather Lie” alongside The Weeknd) entering in the top five, at Nos. 2 and 4, respectively.
With no physical version of the album yet shipped to fans – the album is available for pre-order in eight separate variants on his website – the set’s performance was almost all due to streaming. (There were three digital album variants available on his webstore, along with a widely available standard edition download, which helped account for its 14,500 in first-week sales.) Music’s streaming numbers should remain mighty in the set’s second week, though it has begun to slip noticeably from its early dominance on DSPs – while the album absolutely dominated the real-time and daily listings on Apple Music and Spotify its weekend of release, it is now down to just two songs in the top 20 on both services, and neither in the top five on either.
However, reinforcements are on their way. On Tuesday (March 25), the rapper announced the release of the album’s deluxe edition – subtitled Sorry 4 Da Wait – which includes four totally new tracks tacked on the end (which were actually the bonus tracks he tacked onto his webstore exclusive download variants of the album a week ago), bringing the tracklist to a staggering 34 cuts, and ensuring fans have plenty of reason to revisit Music this week. Given the set’s ever-expanding streaming volume, it’s expected to post units in the six digits in its second week, and be a tough album for even a star duo like Gomez and Blanco to unseat atop the Billboard 200.