The Contenders
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated March 29, we look at the chances of generational rap phenom Playboi Carti and breakout pop superstar Chappell Roan to take over the chart’s top spot.
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Playboi Carti, “Evil J0rdan” (AWGE/Interscope/ICLG): After years of delays that had longtime fans wondering if Playboi Carti would ever release the follow-up to 2020’s cult favorite Whole Lotta Red, Carti finally dropped the long-promised I Am Music set last Friday (March 14) — with its title surprisingly shorted to just “Music.” Arriving in the not-so-early morning, the sprawling new collection offered 30 tracks for the Carti faithful, boasting a guest list of such big names as The Weeknd, Travis Scott, Future, Lil Uzi Vert, Young Thug and even man-of-the-moment Kendrick Lamar.
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Despite the A-listers featured on the set, it’s a Carti solo track that’s in the early lead on streaming services. The booming “Evil J0rdan,” fourth of the 30 tracks, currently sits atop both the real-time Apple Music chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing, and ranks below just the new Bhad Bhabie diss video (!!) on YouTube’s Trending for Music ranking. The song should be in line for the chart’s top debut on the Hot 100, likely contending for an entrance in the top five.
Will it be enough to contend for No. 1? It will be tough for it to really challenge the currently reigning “Luther” without much radio support – which is tough enough to amass quickly for any new rap song, and doubly so for one by the often purposefully abrasive Carti, who has unsurprisingly never really found much of a foothold on the airwaves. (Thus far, the amount of airplay “J0rdan” has received has been negligible.)
Chappell Roan, “The Giver” (Amusement/Island): Few songs of 2025 will be as hotly anticipated as “The Giver,” the first brand-new drop from Chappell Roan since her rapid rise to superstardom over the course of 2024. In truth, “brand new” should come with a bit of an asterisk, as the country-flavored new song was first heard by fans last November, when Roan debuted the song as a musical guest on Saturday Night Live. But “The Giver” did not receive official release until late last Thursday, following a weeks-long rollout of interviews and Instagram posts and Times Square billboards in promotion of the new single.
Many chart-watchers wondered if all the excitement around Roan in 2024 and early 2025 would lead to a Hot 100 No. 1 debut with her first release back. That doesn’t seem particularly likely at this point for “The Giver,” which has ranked below multiple songs from Carti’s Music album on DSPs since its first full day of release on Friday – and which did briefly top the iTunes chart over the weekend, but has already fallen to No. 9 on that listing since. In fact, it isn’t even the highest-ranking Roan song on that ranking: “Pink Pony Club,” which hits a new peak of No. 7 on the Hot 100 this week, lands at No. 2 on the downloads chart, and also ranks above “The Giver” on Apple Music’s real-time listing.
Combined with its strong performance at radio – the song moves into the top five on Pop Airplay this week — “Pink Pony Club” should be ranking in similar territory to “The Giver” on the Hot 100 next week. But “The Giver” has already amassed 1.5 million audience impressions (across all formats), per Luminate — with just over 300,000 of those impressions coming from country stations – and should have a strong overall debut on the airwaves in its first full week.
Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Since taking over the Hot 100 in the weeks following Kendrick Lamar’s triumphant Super Bowl performance, “Luther” has proven fairly stable atop the chart – topping Streaming Songs for each of the last four weeks, while also climbing to No. 2 on Radio Songs, as it continues its cross-platform dominance. That should all continue next week, as “Luther” will likely give up its streaming crown but continue to gain on radio (and challenge for the top spot on Radio Songs), with its combination of stellar performance across the two platforms making it tough to unseat atop the Hot 100.
What’s more, Kendrick may add another few entries to his current Hot 100 takeover, as a featured guest on three strong-performing tracks on Playboi Carti’s Music: “Mojo Jojo,” “Backd00r” and “Good Credit.” Just another three on the pile for Lamar, who already boasts seven entries on the chart this week – including five in the top 20, and three (“Luther,” “Not Like Us” and “TV Off” with Lefty Gunplay) in the top five.
Drake, “Nokia” (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Though the chart unquestionably belongs to Lamar currently, it’s worth noting that his 2024-25 adversary also may be on his way to his biggest hit on the chart in years. Though “Nokia” was not the highest-debuting song from Drake’s recent full-length PartyNextDoor teamup LP $ome $exy $ongs 4 U – it bowed at No. 10, while “Gimme a Hug” entered at No. 6 – it has proven the longest-lasting, spending a third week inside the top 10 and even climbing to a new peak of No. 8 this frame, as it sits in the top six of the regular charts on Apple Music, Spotify and iTunes.
Radio has been relatively slow to pick up on “Nokia” — “Hug” was the initial focus track from the set for most radio formats – but it is starting to grow there as well, rising 31-24 on Rhythmic Airplay and debuting at No. 36 on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay this week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 22, we look at whether the latest album from one of the century’s greatest pop stars will return her to the top of the chart for the first time in five years.
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Lady Gaga, Mayhem (Interscope): For the first time since 2020, Lady Gaga has returned with a new album of original material. The long-anticipated Mayhem follows the pandemic-released Chromatica, and arrives on the back of a trio of advance singles: the solo top 30 Billboard Hot 100 hits “Disease” and “Abracadabra,” which lead off the new set, and the Hot 100-topping Bruno Mars duet “Die With a Smile,” which is included as the album’s closer.
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The well-reviewed album also comes following an absolute avalanche of 2025 promotional appearances, including performances at the Grammys, the FireAid benefit concert and the SNL 50th Anniversary Homecoming Concert, and video interviews with Apple Music’s Zane Lowe, Sean Evans of Hot Ones and Billboard’s own Stephen Daw, among many others. Gaga capped her epic Mayhem promo run last weekend by pulling double duty on Saturday’s SNL, both hosting the show and serving as its musical guest, delivering captivating performances of both “Abracadabra” and “Killah” off the new set.
The 14-track LP is also available for sale in a wide variety of physical formats, including a stunning 14 different vinyl variants – some of which are signed and some of which include the bonus track “Can’t Stop the High,” along with a Target exclusive that features the extra cut “Kill for Love.” There are also four different CD editions, with the same options of bonus tracks and a Gaga signature, as well as a deluxe CD box set with a branded T-shirt and poster and even a cassette version.
It’s all likely to put the Drake vs. Kendrick Lamar warring at the top of the Billboard 200 – which resulted in one of the closest races in recent years this week, with Lamar’s GNX ultimately reigning triumphant for a third nonconsecutive frame – to bed, as Mayhem seems a good bet to give Gaga her seventh No. 1 on the chart. It might end up falling short of the 274,000 units moved by Chromatica in its 2020 debut week – back then, merch and ticket bundles still counted towards Billboard chart calculations, and significantly boosted that album’s initial numbers – but it should still land comfortably in the six figures, and has a good chance of passing the 177,000 of Tate McRae’s So Close to What entrance for the best single-week performance for an album by a female artist in 2025.
IN THE MIX
JENNIE, RUBY (Odd Atelier/Columbia): The recent rush of releases from BLACKPINK members reaches its end – presumably anyway – with the English-language solo debut LP from JENNIE. The star-studded RUBY includes collaborations with Dua Lipa, Dominic Fike, Childish Gambino, Kali Uchis, and of course Billboard Woman of the Year Doechii, whose “ExtraL” team-up with JENNIE graced the Hot 100 at No. 75 earlier this month. With a relatively muted streaming presence and no major breakout hits yet, RUBY is unlikely to challenge for the Billboard 200’s top spot, but should follow ROSÉ’s Number One Girl and Lisa’s Alter Ego to the chart’s top 10.
Jason Isbell, Foxes in the Snow (Southeastern): The latest effort from acclaimed Americana singer-songwriter Jason Isbell is his first in nearly 20 years to not include any contributions from his longtime backing band the 400 Unit. It’s not the only way he’s gone it solo recently, as the album was written in the wake of his divorce with former bandmate Amanda Shires, and was heavily influenced by the split. Isbell’s albums reliably sell well, and Foxes is available in both five vinyl variants and a pair of CD editions.
Spiritbox, Tsunami Sea (Pale Chord/Rise): Canadian heavy metal band Spiritbox turned a lot of chartwatchers’ heads four years ago when its debut set Eternal Blue managed a No. 13 debut on the Billboard 200 – a very impressive number for any hard rock band this decade, but particularly one without much history on the Billboard charts. This month, the now-Grammy-nominated quartet returns with Tsunami Sea, which is getting rave reviews and which is available for purchase on CD, cassette and at least nine vinyl variants.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 8, we look at the chances of Tate McRae’s So Close to What to become the pop hitmaker’s first album to top the chart.
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Tate McRae, So Close to What (RCA): For folks who had been missing the days when pop stars were Pop Stars, few rising artists in the genre were as exciting as Canadian dancer-turned-singer Tate McRae. While McRae first broke out in the early decade with the relatively downtempo “You Broke Me First,” it soon became clear she was more at home delivering high-energy pop music with creative music videos and top-notch choreography – evoking Ariana Grande with her 2023 smash “Greedy,” which hit the chart’s top five in early 2024, and even earning some Britney Spears comparisons on that song’s parent album, Think Later.
McRae has wasted no time in building on the moment from that set – which peaked at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 in December 2023 – with the release last Friday of her third album So Close to What. The 15-track set features guest appearances from rapper Flo Milli (“Bloodonmyhands”) and her hitmaker BF The Kid LAROI (“I Know Love”), as well as the advance singles “It’s OK I’m OK,” “2 Hands” and “Sports Car.” Each of those songs debuted in the top 40 of the Billboard Hot 100, further establishing McRae as one of the hottest artists in pop and helping to build hype for the new set.
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Could the album cap her years-long rise to stardom with a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200? McRae is certainly going for it: So Close is available for purchase in three different CD variants (one signed), a cassette, seven different vinyl variants (two signed) and even four different digital albums, including one version with an alternate cover and three bonus tracks: “Siren Sounds,” now also available on streaming, and the purchase-only “Better Than I Was” and “Call My Bluff.” In addition, McRae has been on something of a media blitz in the past week or so, appearing on The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon on Tuesday night, while also doing video interviews with Zane Lowe, AmEx, Jake Shane, iHeartRadio, Allure, Variety and Billboard.
The album is expected to sell well, and has also been off to a strong start streaming. McRae is pushing the set’s “Revolving Door” as a new single — releasing one of her physical and intricately choreographed videos yet along with it – and the song is performing very well out of the gate, ranking in the top 10 on both the Apple Music realtime chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. What’s more, the full album tracklist has been littering both listings since the album’s debut, with the majority of its 15 tracks still ranking in the top 100. It should all up to the biggest release week yet for McRae, with a bow likely in the six digits.
Will it be enough to get the album the top spot? Well, McRae shouldn’t face much competition from fellow new releases – no other sets released on Friday are expected to even threaten the top 10 – but of course, she’ll need to post a sizeable number to get past some of the LPs that have been regulars in the chart’s top tier the past week. Still, McRae has to like her chances of getting that No. 1, and of claiming a W for the old-school pop stars atop the charts this week.
PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): McRae’s strongest competition this week may come from a couple of her countrymen, with fellow Canucks PartyNextDoor and Drake reigning on the chart this week with their new collaborative set $ome $exy $ongs 4 U. The album — which includes the 6 God claiming “I feel like Tate McRae” on its “Small Town Fame” — will obviously drop in consumption following its 246,000-unit debut week, and as of publishing there haven’t been any new issues of the album to help goose second-week sales. But the album is still streaming pretty well, with “Die Trying,” “Gimme a Hug” and particularly “Nokia” hanging around as the set’s breakout hits. It may or may not be enough to fend off McRae from the top spot this week, but it should be enough to stave off any cackling about the album being a total one-week wonder.
Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Of course, there’s no mentioning Drake these days – or anyone else, really – without also mentioning the perpetually grinning Kung Fu Kenny, still on his victory lap following a triumphant 2024 that’s led into an even-more celebratory early 2025. We may have finally gone a weekend without “Not Like Us” being performed to a building full of celebrities rapping along to it, but Lamar still does have four of the top five songs in the country, three of which come from his late-2024 blockbuster GNX, which rates at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week and is likely to hang around the top of the chart essentially for the foreseeable future. In the mid-2020s, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City, and the road to the top of the Billboard charts goes through Kendrick Lamar.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 1, we look at the chances of Drake’s and PartyNextDoor’s new full-length teamup to knock the former’s recent rap opponent out of the chart’s top spot.
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PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Drake hasn’t been able to find a lot of wins since taking the consensus loss in his culture-conquering 2024 beef with Kendrick Lamar – the after-effects of which continue to permeate the culture on a weekly basis nearly a year later, with Lamar’s signature diss track “Not Like Us” recently winning five Grammys and serving as the centerpiece moment for the most-watched Super Bowl halftime show in history. But Drake may be due for a pretty big W shortly, following the release of his first full-length album since 2023’s For All the Dogs – the Valentine’s Day-released, R&B-focused $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, a teamup with longtime OVO labelmate and collaborator PartyNextDoor.
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The 21-track effort from the two Toronto natives unsurprisingly blanketed the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music real-time charts upon its release, even breaking the record for the biggest R&B/soul album in Apple Music’s history by first-day streams worldwide, and remains a major presence on both listings near the end of the tracking week. While many of the tracks have receded in daily streams since the set dropped, a couple have continued to grow, including the poppier mid-album cuts “Die Trying” and “Nokia,” the latter of which has also spent the majority of the week atop the iTunes real-time chart. The set is also being sold on CD via the album’s own website, with three variants of the CD case available for purchase.
Though the album might not match the first-week numbers of some past chart-conquering Drake projects – including the 404,000 first-week units posted by 2023’s Her Loss, his most recent full-length collaboration, alongside star rapper 21 Savage – it seems likely to return The Boy to No. 1, tying him with Jay-Z for the most Billboard 200 No. 1 albums of any rapper (with 14) and at least temporarily silence critics who declared him “done” following the feud. And of course, with Lamar’s GNX currently occupying the chart’s top spot, it could give him a much-needed triumph in the headlines over his perpetually victory-lapping foe.
Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Even if Drake takes the Billboard 200’s top spot next week, don’t expect Kendrick Lamar to disappear from the chart in the weeks after his Super Bowl performance. In fact, in his first full tracking week following that globally buzzed-about Feb. 9 show, Lamar’s streaming numbers should be even more robust, with performed hits from his 2024 blockbuster GNX like “Squabble Up,” “TV Off” and the SZA-featuring “Luther” continuing to be consumed en masse, and the latter even threatening Lamar’s own “Not Like Us” to take over the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week.
Could it potentially stave off $ome $exy $ongs in that set’s debut week, giving K-Dot one more KO in this now-largely one-sided battle? It doesn’t seem too likely, given the natural disadvantages the 12-track GNX faces in terms of total streams when compared to the 21-track $$$4U – and the fact that the set should slide in terms of sales next week, after the set’s physical release on cassette, vinyl and CD format two Fridays ago (Feb. 7) helped it sell over 100,000 copies for the tracking week ending Feb. 13. Still, with so many of its tracks reconfirmed as streaming monsters, the album is likely to hang around the chart’s upper tier in the weeks to come — meaning we could very easily see GNX return to No. 1 for a third time in a future slow-release week.
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet (Island): Speaking of 2024 blockbusters – another one that’s spent multiple weeks atop the Billboard 200 and hung around the top 10 for many months since should be due for some big gains next week. On Friday (Feb. 14), pop superstar Sabrina Carpenter released the deluxe edition of her four-week No. 1 Short n’ Sweet, expanding the 12-track set to 17 — with four entirely new songs, and a redo of the set’s Hot 100-topping “Please Please Please,” featuring guest vocals from country icon Dolly Parton.
The combination of the original set’s sustained streaming performance – it’s held in the lower half of the top 10 on the Billboard 200 for the whole of February – and the boost it should get from the new deluxe edition should make it one of the top contenders on the chart next week. The bonus cuts have all seen solid streaming bows, with “Busy Woman” in particular appearing to be something of a breakout hit, and the deluxe version of the album should also do well in physical sales, with the set available on her webstore in both azure- and pearl-colored vinyl, and on lipstick-marked CD.
IN THE MIX
The Lumineers, Automatic (Dualtone): The arena-folk stars’ first new album since 2022’s Brightside doesn’t quite include the radio hits of previous sets, but does arrive during a time where a new wave of stomp-clappers led by Noah Kahan have reintroduced their signature sound to the mainstream – and is available for purchase in eight vinyl variants, including a signed edition. Each of The Lumineers’ four previous albums reached the Billboard 200’s top 10, though with streaming unlikely to offer a ton of help, the set will need to sell quite well to extend that streak to five.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 22, we look at the multiple Kendrick Lamar songs that could have a shot at capturing the No. 1 spot following the rapper’s Super Bowl halftime performance.
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Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us,” “Luther” (with SZA) & “TV Off” (feat. TV Gunplay) (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar just electrified the music-listening world with one of the most-anticipated Super Bowl halftime shows of all time — coming not just one week after a Grammy sweep on Feb. 2 that saw Lamar win all five of his nominations (including record and song of the year), but a year-long run of one W after another that saw him earn our editorial staff’s Greatest Pop Star of 2024 title. The performance was the most-watched in the show’s history, according to presenter Apple Music and the NFL, with over 133.5 million people tuning in to see K Dot take the ultimate victory lap.
And of course, the song they were most interested in seeing him play was his 2024 Billboard Hot 100-topper “Not Like Us.” The already-legendary diss track, our editorial staff’s No. 1 song of last year, had been tied up in litigation in recent months, thanks to lawsuits levied by its target, fellow rap superstar Drake, who seemed intent on making it difficult for his opponent to play the incendiary cut on the world’s biggest stage. But Lamar indeed delivered the song as his performance’s centerpiece, even offering a conspicuous (and already much-memed) smile to the camera upon his first “Say Drake…” mention.
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Though “Not Like Us” has been out for eight months already at this point, and enjoyed two separate trips to No. 1 on the Hot 100 (the second coming after the release of its similarly headline-capturing music video in July), it should have a good chance of capturing the top spot again this week. The song, which has continued to linger on the Hot 100 (already rebounding to No. 15 this week, in anticipation of Lamar’s set and following his big Grammy night), shot back to the top of the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, the Apple Music real-time chart and the iTunes chart following Lamar’s performance, as its performance on Sunday night remains at the center of all pop- and hip-hop-related discussion this week.
But it’s not Lamar’s only track threatening the No. 1 spot this week. Lamar has also seen big gains this week for his GNX single “Luther,” which he and collaborator SZA also gave a centerpiece spot during his halftime set, and which currently ranks just below “Not Like Us” at No. 2 on each of the aforementioned rankings. And right underneath them is the Lefty Gunplay-featuring “TV Off,” which Lamar offered immediately following “Not Like Us” as the closing part of his performance – with producer Mustard coming out to dance and silently rap along to the anthem. “Luther” and “TV Off” are also in prime position on the Hot 100 currently, ranking at No. 3 and No. 10 on this week’s chart, respectively.
Radio play will also be a major factor in which of the Super Bowl-boosted Kendrick tracks plays the biggest threat to the Hot 100’s top spot next week. “Luther” is currently leading there, as it bounds from No. 14 to 11 on the Radio Songs chart this week, and has already been up another 9% in audience impressions over the first four days of this tracking week (Feb. 7-10), according to Luminate. But “TV Off” is also gaining, and “Not Like Us” is now rebounding as well, up a whopping 35% over that same four-day period.
If “Not Like Us” can sustain across streaming, sales and radio throughout the week, it might have the best chance of jumping to No. 1 next week – which would make it the extremely rare non-holiday single with three different runs at No. 1, each separated by multiple months. And regardless, we should see a whole lot of Kendrick Lamar in the top 10 next week.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra” (Interscope/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” is officially the song to beat this early 2025, with the superstar duet returning for a fifth frame at No. 1 this week, after briefly being interrupted by Travis Scott’s pole position-debuting “4×4.” The song has even finally captured the crown on Radio Songs, after Shaboozey’s historic 27-week run atop that chart with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” and should also reign for a second week on that listing – though it will likely soon face serious competition from another starry Bruno Mars teamup, with ROSÉ on “APT.”
Speaking of Bruno and Gaga providing their own competition – the latter now has a breakout smash entirely of her own. Her “Abracadabra” bows at No. 29 on the Hot 100 this week with just over four days of tracking, after debuting with its music video as part of a Mastercard commercial during the Grammys. The song got off to a white-hot start on streaming, and continued growing in the days after, even briefly capturing the top spot on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart — though it has since gotten buried under an avalanche of Kendrick Lamar and SZA. Regardless, the song should make a big jump in its first full week on the Hot 100 – perhaps to the top 10, if it doesn’t get boxed out by Kendrick – and is already aiming to debut on Pop Airplay, as well.
Chappell Roan, “Pink Pony Club” (Amusement/Island): Don’t forget about the Grammys’ best new artist, who has been surging on the Hot 100 following her big win and show-stopping performance of what now appears to be the signature song of Roan’s early career, “Pink Pony Club.” Despite being originally released in 2020, the song is only now really catching on both streaming and radio, as it re-enters Streaming Songs at No. 24 and hits a new high of No. 32 on Radio Songs this week. It should continue climbing on both listings next week, and may also rise on the Hot 100, after hitting a new peak of No. 18 this week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 15, we look at the biggest threats to capture the No. 1 spot after Travis Scott’s “4×4” debuted atop the listing this week.
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Morgan Wallen, “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Perhaps the most consistent artist in the upper stretches of the Billboard charts the past two years has been Morgan Wallen, who has racked up three Hot 100 No. 1s since 2023 (with his own “Last Night” and “Love Somebody” and the Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help”) and another five top 10 hits. On Friday (Jan. 31), he returned with the new single “I’m the Problem,” a bitter song about a toxic relationship that will serve as the lead single and title track for his upcoming fourth album, his first since 2023’s behemoth One Thing at a Time (still in the Billboard 200’s top five nearly two years later).
Unsurprisingly, “Problem” is off to a strong start on streaming, topping both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the real-time Apple Music chart after its Friday release. The song has started to slide on both listings perhaps a little quicker than expected, with it being replaced by SZA’s Kendrick Lamar-featuring “30 for 30” atop the Apple Music chart and falling all the way out of the top 10 already on the Spotify listing. But it remains in the top 10 on iTunes even after getting passed by a number of Grammy-boosted songs, and it’s off to a hot start at country radio, with over eight million airplay impressions in its first four days of tracking (through Feb. 3), according to Luminate.
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“Problem” might not quite have the streaming start to be on the inside track for a No. 1 debut, but it should at least be another top 10 hit for the dominant country superstar.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite Lady Gaga being present and performing at the two most high-profile multi-artist gigs of 2025 so far – Thursday’s FireAid concert at the Intuit Dome, where she closed out the multi-hour fundraising event, and Sunday’s Grammys, where she actually performed with Bruno Mars – she did not play her and Mars’ four-week No. 1 at either show. (Gaga and Bruno instead covered The Mamas and the Papas’ ‘60s classic “California Dreamin’” at Music’s Biggest Night.) Nevertheless, the song could get a bump from its win for best pop duo/group performance, and for Gaga’s headline-capturing acceptance speech standing up for the trans community.
In any event, “Die With a Smile” remains a monster on streaming, sticking in the top 10 on Apple Music and climbing back to No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Songs Top USA chart. It also continues to threaten the reign of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” on radio, though that 27-week Radio Songs No. 1 might not give up that spot so easily. Regardless, its continued strong showing across streaming, sales and radio, it should be a pretty strong contender to return to No. 1 for a fifth frame next week.
The Weeknd, “Cry for Me” & “Timeless” (w/ Playboi Carti) (XO/Republic): The Weeknd had a pretty enormous weekend, appropriately, as he both released his new album Hurry Up Tomorrow on Friday and then made a surprise return to the Grammys stage on Sunday after essentially boycotting the awards for four years after his After Hours blockbuster was shockingly ignored by the Recording Academy in 2021. The two songs he performed at the Grammys are also the two leading early performers from Tomorrow: “Timeless,” the Playboi Carti teamup that has already reached No. 3 on the Hot 100, and “Cry for Me,” a newly released early-album highlight.
Both songs should be a factor in the top 10 race next week. “Cry for Me” has the edge on Apple Music, while “Timeless” leads on Spotify – and “Timeless” is obviously ahead on radio, having a months-long head start building airplay (though “Cry for Me” should debut on Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay this week). Neither is likely to be No. 1 next week, but The Weeknd always has tricks up his sleeve to give his hits a little extra boot, so they can’t be totally counted out in the weeks to come.
Travis Scott, “4×4” (Cactus Jack/Epic): The current No. 1 song on the Hot 100 is likely to have a considerable drop in week two, as the gargantuan first-week sales number the song posted (167,000) inevitably recedes, and the streaming numbers continue to slide. (The song is already out of the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music.) Nonetheless, Travis Scott‘s “4×4” won’t disappear completely, and has started to make gains on radio, with the song expected to jump on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay in its second week, and possibly even make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay.
Doechii, “Denial Is a River” (Top Dawg/Capitol/ICLG): It won’t be a top 10 contender just yet, but the breakout hit from Doechii’s now-Grammy-winning mixtape Alligator Bites Never Heal (which she performed, along with “Catfish”) should be the biggest beneficiary from her post-Grammy-night bump in streams and sales — and had already started to make pretty big waves on the charts, climbing to No. 55 on the Hot 100 this week. Radio is starting to kick in for the track as well, with “Denial” also a threat to make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay while shooting up Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Feb. 8, we look at a bunch of new albums, led by the sequel set from one of last year’s greatest chart breakthrough stories.
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Teddy Swims, I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Pt. 2) (SWIMS Int./Warner): Few artists enjoyed a mainstream breakout in 2024 like Teddy Swims, whose megaballad “Lose Control” not only topped the 2024 year-end Billboard Hot 100 after first reaching the chart in late 2023, but which still ranks in the listing’s top 10 this week. That song came from Swims’ debut album I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Pt. 1), which reached No. 17 on the Billboard 200 and spawned a second hit in the more uptempo No. 26-peaking “The Door.”
Now, the big-voiced Georgia singer-songwriter is back with that set’s follow-up, logically titled I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Pt. 2). The new album is available in eight vinyl variants, including one signed by Swims, as well as standard and signed CD editions, and a standard digital download. The set also features two more chart hits in “Bad Dreams” (No. 57) and Giveon collab “Are You Even Real” (No. 59), with Swims performing the latter on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon Jan. 23, just before the album’s release.
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Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): Speaking of Fallon: His recent co-host Bad Bunny should provide the biggest challenge to Swims scoring his first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 next week. Debí Tirar Más Fotos climbed to the chart’s apex — after debuting at No. 2 in an incomplete debut tracking week — and moved a fairly staggering 203,500 units in its second frame, as the critically acclaimed album continued to catch fire on streaming through word of mouth and through a handful of viral hits, most notably quasi-title track “DtMF,” which shot to No. 2 on the Hot 100.
This week, the set has cooled down a little from its blazing start, but remains a major force across streaming – claiming six of the top 25 spots on Apple Music’s real time chart and five of the top 25 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA, including “DtMF” still reigning at No. 1. No tracks from the Swims set are currently even in the top 50 on either chart, which means it will have to sell a tremendous number of physical copies to threaten Bad Bunny’s blockbuster on next week’s chart – a big ask for such a still relatively new artist.
Kane Brown, The High Road (RCA Nashville): A longer-established hitmaker with a new set this week is country star Kane Brown, who has hit the Billboard 200’s top five with each of his top three albums, including 2018s’ chart-topping Experiment. His new set The High Road – not to be confused with recent “High Road” country hits by Zach Bryan and Koe Wetzel & Jessie Murph – features 18 tracks, including already-minted hits “Miles on It” (with EDM star Marshmello) and the Phil Collins-interpolating “I Can Feel It.” The album is available in nine vinyl variants (including signed editions), as well as three d2c-only digital album variants with different cover art, and at leat four CD variants, also including signed editions.
IN THE MIX
Central Cee, Can’t Rush Greatness (CC4L/Columbia): U.K. MC Central Cee has been one of the globe’s hottest rappers for most of the 2020s album, but is only now releasing debut album Can’t Rush Greatness – hence the title. The 17-track set features U.S. rap stars 21 Savage, Lil Durk and Lil Baby, the latter on last year’s top 20 Hot 100 hit “BAND4BAND.” The album should stream well, and has already caused a minor internet fury with its track “5 Star” — which contained rhymes perceived as a diss towards fellow U.K. hip-hop hitmaker Aitch, who responded the same day of its release with his own “A Guy Called?”
FKA twigs, Eusexua (Young/Altantic): Wildly acclaimed for over a decade now, U.K. electro-soul singer-songwriter FKA twigs is back this week with the much-anticipated Eusexua, her first LP since 2022’s Caprisongs. The album is available in six vinyl variants, signed and unsigned CDs, cassette and two digital download variants, one a d2c exclusive with a bonus track. Twigs definitely hasn’t lost her fastball as a critics’ darling, as Eusexua is already one of the year’s strongest-reviewed sets, including a rare 9.1 rating from Pitchfork.
Welcome to Billboard‘s Trending Up newsletter, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip.
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This week: Performers at President Trump’s second inauguration are up in sales but static in streams, Hozier takes over streaming with a new-old cover and a couple generation-separated indie singer-songwriters go viral for very different songs.
Inauguration Performances Spur Modest Sales Gains (But Streaming Dips) for Carrie Underwood, Nelly & More
The presidential inauguration of Donald Trump on Monday (Jan. 20) included multiple events with a variety of musical performances — many of which earned criticism from fans of artists aligning themselves with Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, as well as statements by those artists defending their appearances. Chief among them were Carrie Underwood, who sang “America the Beautiful” after Trump delivered his inaugural address, and Nelly, who performed at the Liberty Inaugural Ball.
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Although both the former American Idol winner and the St. Louis rapper made headlines for their performances connected to the inauguration, neither experienced much movement in their daily streaming totals as a result. Underwood’s catalog earned 1.46 million U.S. on-demand streams on Monday, down nearly 6% from the previous Monday (1.55 million on Jan. 13), according to Luminate. Nelly’s streaming catalog was also down 5%, from 1.63 million on Jan. 13 to 1.54 million on Inauguration Day. However, both artists experienced upticks in digital sales those days, with Underwood and Nelly moving a couple hundred extra daily downloads (although still posting fewer than 1,000 downloads for the day).
So how did a more politically outspoken performer fare? Kid Rock, a longtime Trump supporter who played a rally at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. the night before the inauguration, posted the slightest uptick in catalog streams on Inauguration Day (1.08 million, up from 1.07 million the previous Monday), as well as comparable gains in digital sales as Underwood and Nelly. – JASON LIPSHUTZ
Fans ‘Wanna Know’ About Hozier’s 2014 Arctic Monkeys Cover
It feels like a fever dream of mid-’10s Tumblr alt-rock: Hozier, singer-songwriter behind one of the biggest and best-loved alt-rock hits of 2014, covering one of the year’s other biggest and best-loved hits in Arctic Monkeys’ “Do I Wanna Know.” The Irish crossover star did indeed do just that a decade ago, with a sweetly tender BBC Live Lounge rendition of the stomping late-night staple. Hozier’s version was never released as a single, but it did make an appearance on the special edition of his self-titled debut album, released in 2015.
Now, the song has taken on new life, as Hozier fans – who have multiplied in number over the past decade, especially following the release of his Hot 100-topping “Too Sweet” last year – have rediscovered the yearning cover, making it go viral all across social media, and on YouTube where the 10-year-old performance clip currently rates as one of the channel’s top 50 videos. The cover has particularly exploded over the last five days, amassing over 1.4 million combined official on-demand U.S. streams, up 3,941% from the same period the previous week, according to Luminate. And of course, the Arctic Monkeys original is feeling the spillover love too: The U.K. band’s original “Do I Wanna Know” racked up 3.5 million streams for the week ending Jan. 16, up 44% from the prior frame. – ANDREW UNTERBERGER
Beabadoobee’s ‘Real Man’ Becomes Her Latest Viral Hit
Beabadoobee has spent the past half-decade successfully braiding traditional indie-pop album releases and promotion with viral moments, as songs like her Powfu collaboration “Death Bed (Coffee for Your Head)” and her own “The Perfect Pair” have earned hundreds of millions of streams after blowing up with the TikTok set. The British singer-songwriter has now done it again with “Real Man,” the smoky, piano-laced standout from last year’s full-length This is How Tomorrow Moves.
The chorus line of “I guess no one ever taught you how to be a real man” has inspired a flex-inflected TikTok dance and wave of lip synchs, helping “Real Man” break through on streaming platforms. A month ago, the track earned 1.84 million U.S. on-demand streams for the week ending Dec. 26, according to Luminate; that number has now nearly doubled, to 3.67 million for the week ending Jan. 16. Meanwhile, “The Perfect Pair,” which went viral back in 2022, is going viral again (re-viraling?) thanks to “Real Man” listeners discovering the older track, with 3.68 million streams for the week ending Jan. 16 — up nearly 30% from a month ago. – JL
Julie Doiron Sets Her Calendar for a Surprise Viral Hit
A breakout hit would’ve been something close to unforeseeable for Julie Doiron even at the peak of her ‘90s hipness. The Canadian lo-fi indie singer-songwriter (and bassist for underground favorites Eric’s Trip) had never made significant impact on the Billboard charts during her now three-decade recording career, releasing a consistent stream of well-received albums but never really even threatening a crossover moment. That’s changed in the last couple months, however, as Doiron has scored one of the surprise streaming hits of the early year: “August 10,” from 1996’s Broken Girl.
The slow, sad and still determinedly un-pop ballad has taken off on TikTok – not due to any particular trend or synch or influencer endorsement, but just through a series of popular recreations (of both Doiron’s vocals and her bare-bones guitar playing) and emotional videos set to the pleading verse. The striking song has hit enough of a nerve – seasonal sadness, perhaps – that it has exploded to over four million official on-demand U.S. streams in the week ending Jan. 16, according to Luminate, part of a steady climb that’s seen the song rise a little every week going back to last November. The streaming activity has even powered the song to a debut on Billboard’s Hot Rock Songs listing, reaching a No. 12 peak. If it’s doing this well in January, imagine what might happen when we actually get to August. – AU
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 chart dated Feb. 1, we look at whether the surging quasi-title track from Bad Bunny’s latest will be able to get over the top on the chart.
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Bad Bunny, “DtMF” (Rimas): It’s been a triumphant week for Bad Bunny on the Billboard 200, as the Puerto Rican superstar has topped the chart with his new album Debí Tirar Mas Fotos, a personal album largely inspired by the salsa and plena music of his home territory. Though the album debuted at No. 2 – behind Lil Baby’s WHAM – thanks in large part to the set’s release on a Sunday, already two days into the chart tracking week, it climbs to No. 1 this week with 203,500 equivalent album units earned in the U.S., according to Luminate, a staggering number for any album’s second week, showing how many people were still discovering the album following its unusually timed drop.
Bunny would no doubt love to have the same thing happen with the set’s near-title track, “DtMF,” on the Billboard Hot 100. Despite appearing as the album’s penultimate track – number 16 out of 17 — and being something of a departure from Bad Bunny’s usual Latin trap-and-reggaetón-led sound, the song has exploded on streaming services, with fans attaching to its singalong chorus and sentimental lyrics, particularly on TikTok. It’s now pretty clearly the set’s biggest breakout hit, leaping from No. 38 all the way to No. 2 on this week’s Hot 100.
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The song’s explosive growth on streaming seems to be settling down a bit in its third week, though it continues to lead on both Apple Music’s real-time chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. What really might get in the way of it getting over the top on the Hot 100 is radio airplay: While the song is now being promoted to radio, its airplay has been fairly minimal so far, as the song still trails three other tracks on Fotos, led by advance single “El Clúb.” It’s hard to imagine the unconventionally structured, entirely Spanish-language song ever becoming a major fixture on U.S. top 40, but Bad Bunny might need at least a little radio love to edge out some of the radio-friendlier songs it’s going to be in competition with in the weeks to come – particularly the song currently topping the chart.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Like Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” in 2024, the chances looked dicey at first for Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” to ever get to No. 1 – but now that it’s finally there, it might be sticking around for a little while. The song spends its third frame on top of the chart this week, while actually gaining in both streaming and sales, and remains in the top three of all three Hot 100 component charts: Radio Songs, Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs.
That combination could make “Smile” tough to unseat on the Hot 100 in the weeks to come. The song is even challenging to finally take over the No. 1 spot on Radio Songs – which would be its first week atop the listing, with “A Bar Song” having reigned for the past 25 weeks (one week away from tying The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights” for the longest stay atop the chart). And if you’re looking for your early frontrunner for No. 1 on the 2025 year-end Hot 100, it’s gotta be Gaga and Bruno – an honor the latter hasn’t won since the Mark Ronson-led “Uptown Funk!” in 2015, and which the former has still yet to capture in her illustrious pop career.
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.” (Atlantic): Bruno Mars’ biggest competition for all-platform pop dominance this early year might of course come from himself. “APT.,” his collaboration with K-pop star and BLACKPINK alum ROSÉ, was already well on its way to breakout smash status in late 2024, and has only continued to grow well into 2025, reaching the Hot 100’s top five – proof not only of ROSÉ’s rising solo star in the U.S., but of Mars’ status as perhaps the single-most can’t-miss pop hitmaker on the entire planet right now.
“APT.” leads on the Digital Song Sales chart for the first time this week, while slipping to No. 9 on Streaming Songs and climbing to No. 11 (after having previously peaked at No. 10) on Radio Songs. The latter chart of course remains its biggest opportunity for growth, as the song is not only challenging for top 10 again on the all-format Radio Songs, but for the No. 1 spot on Pop Airplay. If the song’s streaming performance settles a little in the weeks to come while it continues to spread out on the airwaves, we could very easily see a Bruno vs. Bruno battle at the top of the Hot 100 in the not-too-distant future.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 25, 2025, we look at whether a new growing blockbuster from Bad Bunny will claim the top spot, or whether it will be lapped by the shipment of a beloved Taylor Swift live set.
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Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): The latest LP from Puerto Rican global superstar Bad Bunny might have already been the No. 1 album in the country had it enjoyed a full tracking week. But due to its Sunday release (Jan. 5), two days into tracking, it pulled up just short, posting 122,000 first-week units and falling behind Lil Baby’s WHAM set, which bowed at No. 1 with 140,000 units.
The good news for Fotos is that it keeps growing. While the album’s first-day numbers on streaming were solid but unexceptional, they’ve ballooned nearly every day since – an extremely unusual trajectory for a new release by an established superstar – to the point where the album now claims the top three spots on both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. (Both rankings are led by the viral smash “DtMF,” which could also challenge for a top spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week.)
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The runaway streaming success of Fotos, combined with it now getting the benefits of a full week of tracking (as well as a heavy week of promo, including a recent Subway Busking performance with Jimmy Fallon) means that the set should have an even better showing in its second frame – perhaps more in line with the opening week of Bunny’s previous album, 2023’s Nadie Sabie Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, which managed 184,000 units in its Billboard 200-topping debut week.
Taylor Swift, Lover (Live in Paris) (Republic): The City of Lover live show that Taylor Swift played in Paris in 2019 has long held a special place in the hearts of Swifties – both for its intimate acoustic versions of many highlights from 2019’s Lover set, and for the fact that it was one of the final full live shows Swift performed for some years, after her planned Lover Fest mini-tour was canceled in the wake of the 2020 COVID pandemic and she was forced to regroup for 2023-24’s world-conquering Eras Tour. In 2020, the set was aired as an ABC live special, followed by the limited-edition release a double-LP version of the set in 2023, entitled Lover (Live From Paris), collecting eight performances from the gig.
That release was limited to 13,000 copies, and of course sold out, resulting in a No. 58 bow on the Billboard 200. The set was re-released this Jan. 7, however, as a 72-hour webstore exclusive, and is expected to sell a whole lot more than that this time around. The impact it has on this upcoming Billboard 200 will depend on when the copies of it officially ship – her webstore noted that all copies would ship “on or before Jan. 20,” but with many Swifties apparently having already received their copies, it seems likely to be a real contender for next week.
Could it beat out Bad Bunny’s burgeoning blockbuster? Despite her 14 career No. 1s on the Billboard 200, Swift has never reached the apex with a live set – with 2020’s No. 3-peaking Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions coming closest. But with the combination of the set’s reputation among Swifties, those fans’ love for collecting her records (with Taylor claiming five of the top 10 best-selling vinyl LPs of 2024) the half-decade wait since the special initially aired and how she’s gotten exponentially bigger in the last few years… as with nearly everything Taylor Swift-related in 2025, it’s probably not a great idea to bet against her.
Lil Baby, WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): Last week’s No. 1 seems pretty sure for some degree of fall-off in its second frame. Its opening number of 140,000 got a big lift from direct-to-consumer album sales (in CD and digital download form), helping it get 50,000 of those first-week units, which is almost always much lower in an album’s second week. And on streaming, Lil Baby‘s set is clearly slipping – it’s still littering the Apple Music chart, but with only one song (the Future- and Young Thug-featuring “Dum, Dumb and Dumber”) in the top 20, and it claims just two total entries in Spotify’s 200-position Daily Top Songs USA chart. That’s not shocking by any means – most big streaming albums do experience a big drop-off in week two – but it just shows how remarkable it is that Fotos is still expanding like it is. (WHAM should still get a small boost on streaming from the Friday release of its deluxe edition – featuring four bonus tracks – to DSPs, having previously been available only for purchase as part of the deluxe on the Motown webstore.)