The Contenders
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated April 19, we look at a number of albums threatening to end the seven-week reign of Kendrick Lamar & SZA’s “Luther” — led by a recent rival’s own runaway hit.
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Drake, “Nokia” (Santa Anna/OVO/Republic): Well at this point, it’s official: Drake has another smash on his hands. Aided by the debut last Monday (March 31) of the song’s long-awaited, IMAX-filmed music video, “Nokia” jumps from No. 7 to a new peak of No. 3 on the Hot 100 this week – now making it the biggest hit from his and PartyNextDoor’s new collaborative album $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, passing the No. 6 peak of “Gimme a Hug,” and rating as his highest-peaking hit since 2013.
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Now, it’s a question of whether it could climb those last two spots to No. 1. It’s certainly trending in the right direction, as its streaming numbers continue to climb, with the song currently sitting atop both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. It’s also been lingering near the top of the iTunes realtime chart, after rebounding to No. 2 on the Digital Song Sales chart last week. And most crucially, it’s been growing on radio, debuting at No. 44 on Radio Songs this week and trending towards the top 40 for next week (up 32% in audience from March 4-7, according to Luminate).
That last part is where it has the most ground to make up if it’s going to have any shot at unseating the current longtime frontrunner – which just happens to be from Drake’s recent opponent on the mic, Kendrick Lamar, with SZA on the seven-week No. 1 “Luther.” That song tops Radio Songs for the first time this week, and should be widening its lead on the listing next week, while also still reigning on Streaming Songs. Drake’s got the momentum, but he’s going to probably have to keep riding it for a little while to replicate his Billboard 200 unseating of Lamar a couple months ago on the Hot 100.
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): One of the surprise breakout hits of 2025 has come from YouTuber-turned-performing artist Alex Warren. The California singer-songwriter has been climbing the Hot 100 in recent weeks with his ballad “Ordinary” — which first took off on TikTok, and then exploded after he performed it on a reunion episode for season eight of Netflix’s hit reality show Love Is Blind. Last week, the song became Warren’s first top 20 hit on the Hot 100, and this week, it jumps another six spots to No. 14 on the chart.
Next week, the song might have the top 10 in its sights. It continues to build on streaming, now residing in the top 10 on both the Apple Music real-time and Spotify daily charts, and has taken over the top spot on the iTunes real-time chart as well. Most crucially, radio is beginning to embrace “Ordinary,” with the song up 81% to more than four million in airplay audience March 4-7, according to Luminate, as it debuts at No. 31 on the Pop Airplay chart this week. The U.S. is just catching up to the rest of the world at this point, as “Ordinary” has already reached No. 3 on both Billboard Global charts, as well as topping the Official UK Singles chart for three weeks and counting.
BigXthaPlug feat. Bailey Zimmerman, “All the Way” (UnitedMasters): BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman have both been frequent presences on the Hot 100 the past couple years, and now both look to potentially be headed for their biggest hit yet with their new collab. “All the Way,” expected to be the lead single from an upcoming country-themed set from rapper BigX, is off to an awesome start on streaming — rating in the top five on Spotify’s daily chart and behind only “Nokia” at No. 2 on Apple Music, while its domestic drama-and-monster-trucks-themed music video leads even “Nokia” on YouTube’s trending page for Music. The song hasn’t found its radio footing yet, but if it ever does, it looks like it could easily become one of the biggest hits of spring and summer.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case” (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): Morgan Wallen currently has five songs rating in the top 40 of the Hot 100 – including last year’s “Love Somebody” and Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help,” as well as newer cuts “I’m the Problem” and “I’m a Little Crazy.” But the one with the most momentum currently is probably “Just in Case,” which notches a second week in the top 10 at No. 8. this week, after debuting at No. 4. The song is still performing very well on DSPs, and has already started making inroads at radio, where it is likely to jump into the Country Airplay top 40 next week – meaning it could be peaking right around the time Wallen releases his highly anticipated fourth album I’m the Problem next month.
Billboard Women in Music 2025
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 12, we look at a number of albums looking to knock Playboi Carti’s two-week No. 1 from the top spot – led by a reissue from one of the 2024’s top pop stars.
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Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine (Republic): Ariana Grande’s sixth studio album is an already-certified hit: Eternal Sunshine debuted atop the Billboard 200 upon its release in March 2024, with over 200,000 first-week equivalent album units, according to Luminate, and spawned a pair of Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hits with advance single “Yes, And?” and Sunshine focus track “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love).” The album has stuck on the 200 for the last 55 weeks, still rating in the chart’s top half as of this frame.
Next week, however, it should make a large jump – possibly to the very top spot. On Friday (March 28), Grande released the album’s Brighter Days Ahead deluxe edition, which added six bonus songs to the streaming version of the 13-track release: one extended version of the album-opening “Intro (End of the World)” and five totally new songs. Those previously unreleased songs have been performing well on streaming, with “Twilight Zone” even topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the Friday of its release, and all six cuts still rating in the top half of the 200-position chart.
In addition, Grande has released a multitude of versions of the album for sale. Her webstore offers exclusive digital downloads of the 19-track Brighter Days Ahead reissue of the album, one with just that tracklist, one with the instrumentals of each track and one also with the a cappellas of each track (and all with alternate covers). Physical vinyl and CD variants are also available of the new edition, which include the three bonus tracks originally collected on the set’s (Slightly Deluxe) 2024 reissue. Grande has released a short film to promote the set, an emotional 26-minute mini-sci-fi flick also called Brighter Days Ahead.
Will it be enough to top Playboi Carti’s reigning No. 1, the streaming behemoth Music? It could come down to the wire, with Carti’s dominance on DSPs competing with Grande’s robust sales – and the race might not be over yet on either side.
Nav, OMW2 Rexdale (XO/Republic): Canadian rapper-singer Nav might not still be the regularly charting hitmaker he was at the turn of the 2020s, but his albums are still pretty well guaranteed to make an impact on the Billboard 200 – where he has two No. 1 sets to his name, and has charted in the top 10 with each of his last five sets. He’ll look to keep that streak alive with this week’s OMW2 Rexdale (or On My Way 2 Rexdale), which includes a number of big-name guests – including Metro Boomin, Don Toliver and the Billboard 200’s reigning champ Playboi Carti.
To do that, he’ll have the help of a number of physical variants, including standard and signed CDs, vinyl and four deluxe boxed sets containing the standard CD and branded clothing. In addition, Nav is offering a sextet of digital albums as exclusives through his webstore, each of with comes with the core 11-song set and a consistent trio of bonus tracks — and then three additional bonus tracks, which are different on each edition. (He’s also done in-store signings at brick-and-mortar retailers to help promote the new set.)
Without a major streaming hit to its credit, it all might not be enough for Rexdale to compete for No. 1 with Grande and Carti – but it should be enough for yet another Nav top 10, at the least.
Lil Durk, Deep Thoughts (Only the Family/Alamo/Sony): Deep Thoughts marks star rapper Lil Durk’s first full release since being arrested on murder-for-hire charges in late 2024. (He has pled not guilty and is currently awaiting trial.) While Durk is obviously not the dominant chart force he was earlier in the decade, Thoughts has unsurprisingly gotten off to a strong start on streaming, with its 17 tracks (including guest appearances from Future, Lil Baby and Jhené Aiko) all still ranking in the top 100 of Apple Music’s real-time chart. Streaming will have to make the great majority of Durk’s chart performance, however, since Deep Thoughts is currently only available to purchase as a digital download.
Mumford and Sons, Rushmere (Glassnote): Each of the three albums alt-folkers Mumford and Sons released in the 2010s went to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – most recently 2018’s Delta, the group’s most recent LP until last Friday. That was when the stomp-clappers released Rushmere, a 10-track set co-produced with country and Americana stalwart Dave Cobb, along with six vinyl variants, four CD editions and a cassette. The set’s title track has proven a top-five hit at rock radio, but the streaming response has thus far been muted – and though the band sells respectably, their blockbuster commercial peak is largely in the rearview at this point.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated April 5, we look at the chances of engaged performer-producer duo Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco’s collaborative set I Said I Love You First to unseat Playboi Carti’s Music atop the chart.
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Selena Gomez & Benny Blanco, I Said I Love You First (Friends Keep Secrets/Interscope): One of the most-anticipated pop sets of early 2025 comes from two longtime pop hitmakers: cross-platform megastar Selena Gomez and shapeshifting producer Benny Blanco. Last Friday (March 21), the pair – who have been sporadic collaborators for a decade and are now also a real-life couple who announced their engagement in December – released their first full album together, I Said I Love You First, following a whirlwind rollout.
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The set’s 14 tracks all of course feature vocals from Gomez and production from Blanco, but they’re hardly the only performers or behind-the-scenes contributors on the set. It also includes guest appearances from fellow contemporary stars Gracie Abrams (on the pre-release Billboard Hot 100 hit “Call Me When You Break Up”), J Balvin, GloRilla and The Marias, as well as writing and/or production assistance from recognizable names Finneas, Justin Tranter and Julia Michaels, Dylan Brady (of 100 Gecs) and Cashmere Cat. Even Charli XCX shows up to co-write and performs background vocals on “Bluest Flame,” like she did for Gomez’s hit “Same Old Love” a decade earlier.
The album is also available for purchase in a wide variety of physical formats. There are seven different vinyl variants for sale — color variants and some with alternate covers, and one signed version available on her webstore – as well as three CD versions (standard, signed and a Zine/CD in expanded packaging) and a deluxe box set containing branded merch and a CD. What’s more, five d2c-exclusive download album variants have been released on her store, each purchasable for $5 –- all featuring alternative covers, three with a single bonus track each (“Stained,” “Talk” or “That’s When I’ll Care (Seven Heavens Version)”), and one being a commentary edition with 14 bonus commentary tracks about the album’s songs.
Gomez is certainly no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200, having bested the chart with each of her three solo albums to date, going back to 2013’s Stars Dance. Whether she will continue the streak as half of this star duo remains to be seen, however – it will have a high bar to clear, coming during the second week of the year’s biggest-debuting hip-hop album to date, and it will be hurt by the lack of an established lead single or major breakout hit on streaming. But the album has picked up on DSPs over the course of its release week, with Marias teamup “Ojos Tristes” and buzzy post-breakup song “How Does It Feel to Be Forgotten” climbing into the top 100 on both the Apple Music real time and Spotify Daily Top Songs USA charts.
Playboi Carti, Music (AWGE/Interscope): Carti’s Music bowed atop this week’s Billboard 200 with an eye-opening 298,000 units, according to Luminate, confirming the cult rapper’s long-rising stardom and setting a new bar for hip-hop releases in 2025. The blockbuster set also blanketed the Hot 100, charting every one of its 30 tracks on the listing, with its two best performing tracks (“Evil J0rdan” and “Rather Lie” alongside The Weeknd) entering in the top five, at Nos. 2 and 4, respectively.
With no physical version of the album yet shipped to fans – the album is available for pre-order in eight separate variants on his website – the set’s performance was almost all due to streaming. (There were three digital album variants available on his webstore, along with a widely available standard edition download, which helped account for its 14,500 in first-week sales.) Music’s streaming numbers should remain mighty in the set’s second week, though it has begun to slip noticeably from its early dominance on DSPs – while the album absolutely dominated the real-time and daily listings on Apple Music and Spotify its weekend of release, it is now down to just two songs in the top 20 on both services, and neither in the top five on either.
However, reinforcements are on their way. On Tuesday (March 25), the rapper announced the release of the album’s deluxe edition – subtitled Sorry 4 Da Wait – which includes four totally new tracks tacked on the end (which were actually the bonus tracks he tacked onto his webstore exclusive download variants of the album a week ago), bringing the tracklist to a staggering 34 cuts, and ensuring fans have plenty of reason to revisit Music this week. Given the set’s ever-expanding streaming volume, it’s expected to post units in the six digits in its second week, and be a tough album for even a star duo like Gomez and Blanco to unseat atop the Billboard 200.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated March 29, we look at the chances of generational rap phenom Playboi Carti and breakout pop superstar Chappell Roan to take over the chart’s top spot.
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Playboi Carti, “Evil J0rdan” (AWGE/Interscope/ICLG): After years of delays that had longtime fans wondering if Playboi Carti would ever release the follow-up to 2020’s cult favorite Whole Lotta Red, Carti finally dropped the long-promised I Am Music set last Friday (March 14) — with its title surprisingly shorted to just “Music.” Arriving in the not-so-early morning, the sprawling new collection offered 30 tracks for the Carti faithful, boasting a guest list of such big names as The Weeknd, Travis Scott, Future, Lil Uzi Vert, Young Thug and even man-of-the-moment Kendrick Lamar.
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Despite the A-listers featured on the set, it’s a Carti solo track that’s in the early lead on streaming services. The booming “Evil J0rdan,” fourth of the 30 tracks, currently sits atop both the real-time Apple Music chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA listing, and ranks below just the new Bhad Bhabie diss video (!!) on YouTube’s Trending for Music ranking. The song should be in line for the chart’s top debut on the Hot 100, likely contending for an entrance in the top five.
Will it be enough to contend for No. 1? It will be tough for it to really challenge the currently reigning “Luther” without much radio support – which is tough enough to amass quickly for any new rap song, and doubly so for one by the often purposefully abrasive Carti, who has unsurprisingly never really found much of a foothold on the airwaves. (Thus far, the amount of airplay “J0rdan” has received has been negligible.)
Chappell Roan, “The Giver” (Amusement/Island): Few songs of 2025 will be as hotly anticipated as “The Giver,” the first brand-new drop from Chappell Roan since her rapid rise to superstardom over the course of 2024. In truth, “brand new” should come with a bit of an asterisk, as the country-flavored new song was first heard by fans last November, when Roan debuted the song as a musical guest on Saturday Night Live. But “The Giver” did not receive official release until late last Thursday, following a weeks-long rollout of interviews and Instagram posts and Times Square billboards in promotion of the new single.
Many chart-watchers wondered if all the excitement around Roan in 2024 and early 2025 would lead to a Hot 100 No. 1 debut with her first release back. That doesn’t seem particularly likely at this point for “The Giver,” which has ranked below multiple songs from Carti’s Music album on DSPs since its first full day of release on Friday – and which did briefly top the iTunes chart over the weekend, but has already fallen to No. 9 on that listing since. In fact, it isn’t even the highest-ranking Roan song on that ranking: “Pink Pony Club,” which hits a new peak of No. 7 on the Hot 100 this week, lands at No. 2 on the downloads chart, and also ranks above “The Giver” on Apple Music’s real-time listing.
Combined with its strong performance at radio – the song moves into the top five on Pop Airplay this week — “Pink Pony Club” should be ranking in similar territory to “The Giver” on the Hot 100 next week. But “The Giver” has already amassed 1.5 million audience impressions (across all formats), per Luminate — with just over 300,000 of those impressions coming from country stations – and should have a strong overall debut on the airwaves in its first full week.
Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Since taking over the Hot 100 in the weeks following Kendrick Lamar’s triumphant Super Bowl performance, “Luther” has proven fairly stable atop the chart – topping Streaming Songs for each of the last four weeks, while also climbing to No. 2 on Radio Songs, as it continues its cross-platform dominance. That should all continue next week, as “Luther” will likely give up its streaming crown but continue to gain on radio (and challenge for the top spot on Radio Songs), with its combination of stellar performance across the two platforms making it tough to unseat atop the Hot 100.
What’s more, Kendrick may add another few entries to his current Hot 100 takeover, as a featured guest on three strong-performing tracks on Playboi Carti’s Music: “Mojo Jojo,” “Backd00r” and “Good Credit.” Just another three on the pile for Lamar, who already boasts seven entries on the chart this week – including five in the top 20, and three (“Luther,” “Not Like Us” and “TV Off” with Lefty Gunplay) in the top five.
Drake, “Nokia” (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Though the chart unquestionably belongs to Lamar currently, it’s worth noting that his 2024-25 adversary also may be on his way to his biggest hit on the chart in years. Though “Nokia” was not the highest-debuting song from Drake’s recent full-length PartyNextDoor teamup LP $ome $exy $ongs 4 U – it bowed at No. 10, while “Gimme a Hug” entered at No. 6 – it has proven the longest-lasting, spending a third week inside the top 10 and even climbing to a new peak of No. 8 this frame, as it sits in the top six of the regular charts on Apple Music, Spotify and iTunes.
Radio has been relatively slow to pick up on “Nokia” — “Hug” was the initial focus track from the set for most radio formats – but it is starting to grow there as well, rising 31-24 on Rhythmic Airplay and debuting at No. 36 on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay this week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 22, we look at whether the latest album from one of the century’s greatest pop stars will return her to the top of the chart for the first time in five years.
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Lady Gaga, Mayhem (Interscope): For the first time since 2020, Lady Gaga has returned with a new album of original material. The long-anticipated Mayhem follows the pandemic-released Chromatica, and arrives on the back of a trio of advance singles: the solo top 30 Billboard Hot 100 hits “Disease” and “Abracadabra,” which lead off the new set, and the Hot 100-topping Bruno Mars duet “Die With a Smile,” which is included as the album’s closer.
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The well-reviewed album also comes following an absolute avalanche of 2025 promotional appearances, including performances at the Grammys, the FireAid benefit concert and the SNL 50th Anniversary Homecoming Concert, and video interviews with Apple Music’s Zane Lowe, Sean Evans of Hot Ones and Billboard’s own Stephen Daw, among many others. Gaga capped her epic Mayhem promo run last weekend by pulling double duty on Saturday’s SNL, both hosting the show and serving as its musical guest, delivering captivating performances of both “Abracadabra” and “Killah” off the new set.
The 14-track LP is also available for sale in a wide variety of physical formats, including a stunning 14 different vinyl variants – some of which are signed and some of which include the bonus track “Can’t Stop the High,” along with a Target exclusive that features the extra cut “Kill for Love.” There are also four different CD editions, with the same options of bonus tracks and a Gaga signature, as well as a deluxe CD box set with a branded T-shirt and poster and even a cassette version.
It’s all likely to put the Drake vs. Kendrick Lamar warring at the top of the Billboard 200 – which resulted in one of the closest races in recent years this week, with Lamar’s GNX ultimately reigning triumphant for a third nonconsecutive frame – to bed, as Mayhem seems a good bet to give Gaga her seventh No. 1 on the chart. It might end up falling short of the 274,000 units moved by Chromatica in its 2020 debut week – back then, merch and ticket bundles still counted towards Billboard chart calculations, and significantly boosted that album’s initial numbers – but it should still land comfortably in the six figures, and has a good chance of passing the 177,000 of Tate McRae’s So Close to What entrance for the best single-week performance for an album by a female artist in 2025.
IN THE MIX
JENNIE, RUBY (Odd Atelier/Columbia): The recent rush of releases from BLACKPINK members reaches its end – presumably anyway – with the English-language solo debut LP from JENNIE. The star-studded RUBY includes collaborations with Dua Lipa, Dominic Fike, Childish Gambino, Kali Uchis, and of course Billboard Woman of the Year Doechii, whose “ExtraL” team-up with JENNIE graced the Hot 100 at No. 75 earlier this month. With a relatively muted streaming presence and no major breakout hits yet, RUBY is unlikely to challenge for the Billboard 200’s top spot, but should follow ROSÉ’s Number One Girl and Lisa’s Alter Ego to the chart’s top 10.
Jason Isbell, Foxes in the Snow (Southeastern): The latest effort from acclaimed Americana singer-songwriter Jason Isbell is his first in nearly 20 years to not include any contributions from his longtime backing band the 400 Unit. It’s not the only way he’s gone it solo recently, as the album was written in the wake of his divorce with former bandmate Amanda Shires, and was heavily influenced by the split. Isbell’s albums reliably sell well, and Foxes is available in both five vinyl variants and a pair of CD editions.
Spiritbox, Tsunami Sea (Pale Chord/Rise): Canadian heavy metal band Spiritbox turned a lot of chartwatchers’ heads four years ago when its debut set Eternal Blue managed a No. 13 debut on the Billboard 200 – a very impressive number for any hard rock band this decade, but particularly one without much history on the Billboard charts. This month, the now-Grammy-nominated quartet returns with Tsunami Sea, which is getting rave reviews and which is available for purchase on CD, cassette and at least nine vinyl variants.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 8, we look at the chances of Tate McRae’s So Close to What to become the pop hitmaker’s first album to top the chart.
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Tate McRae, So Close to What (RCA): For folks who had been missing the days when pop stars were Pop Stars, few rising artists in the genre were as exciting as Canadian dancer-turned-singer Tate McRae. While McRae first broke out in the early decade with the relatively downtempo “You Broke Me First,” it soon became clear she was more at home delivering high-energy pop music with creative music videos and top-notch choreography – evoking Ariana Grande with her 2023 smash “Greedy,” which hit the chart’s top five in early 2024, and even earning some Britney Spears comparisons on that song’s parent album, Think Later.
McRae has wasted no time in building on the moment from that set – which peaked at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 in December 2023 – with the release last Friday of her third album So Close to What. The 15-track set features guest appearances from rapper Flo Milli (“Bloodonmyhands”) and her hitmaker BF The Kid LAROI (“I Know Love”), as well as the advance singles “It’s OK I’m OK,” “2 Hands” and “Sports Car.” Each of those songs debuted in the top 40 of the Billboard Hot 100, further establishing McRae as one of the hottest artists in pop and helping to build hype for the new set.
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Could the album cap her years-long rise to stardom with a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200? McRae is certainly going for it: So Close is available for purchase in three different CD variants (one signed), a cassette, seven different vinyl variants (two signed) and even four different digital albums, including one version with an alternate cover and three bonus tracks: “Siren Sounds,” now also available on streaming, and the purchase-only “Better Than I Was” and “Call My Bluff.” In addition, McRae has been on something of a media blitz in the past week or so, appearing on The Tonight Show With Jimmy Fallon on Tuesday night, while also doing video interviews with Zane Lowe, AmEx, Jake Shane, iHeartRadio, Allure, Variety and Billboard.
The album is expected to sell well, and has also been off to a strong start streaming. McRae is pushing the set’s “Revolving Door” as a new single — releasing one of her physical and intricately choreographed videos yet along with it – and the song is performing very well out of the gate, ranking in the top 10 on both the Apple Music realtime chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. What’s more, the full album tracklist has been littering both listings since the album’s debut, with the majority of its 15 tracks still ranking in the top 100. It should all up to the biggest release week yet for McRae, with a bow likely in the six digits.
Will it be enough to get the album the top spot? Well, McRae shouldn’t face much competition from fellow new releases – no other sets released on Friday are expected to even threaten the top 10 – but of course, she’ll need to post a sizeable number to get past some of the LPs that have been regulars in the chart’s top tier the past week. Still, McRae has to like her chances of getting that No. 1, and of claiming a W for the old-school pop stars atop the charts this week.
PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): McRae’s strongest competition this week may come from a couple of her countrymen, with fellow Canucks PartyNextDoor and Drake reigning on the chart this week with their new collaborative set $ome $exy $ongs 4 U. The album — which includes the 6 God claiming “I feel like Tate McRae” on its “Small Town Fame” — will obviously drop in consumption following its 246,000-unit debut week, and as of publishing there haven’t been any new issues of the album to help goose second-week sales. But the album is still streaming pretty well, with “Die Trying,” “Gimme a Hug” and particularly “Nokia” hanging around as the set’s breakout hits. It may or may not be enough to fend off McRae from the top spot this week, but it should be enough to stave off any cackling about the album being a total one-week wonder.
Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Of course, there’s no mentioning Drake these days – or anyone else, really – without also mentioning the perpetually grinning Kung Fu Kenny, still on his victory lap following a triumphant 2024 that’s led into an even-more celebratory early 2025. We may have finally gone a weekend without “Not Like Us” being performed to a building full of celebrities rapping along to it, but Lamar still does have four of the top five songs in the country, three of which come from his late-2024 blockbuster GNX, which rates at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week and is likely to hang around the top of the chart essentially for the foreseeable future. In the mid-2020s, the road to the Super Bowl goes through Kansas City, and the road to the top of the Billboard charts goes through Kendrick Lamar.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 1, we look at the chances of Drake’s and PartyNextDoor’s new full-length teamup to knock the former’s recent rap opponent out of the chart’s top spot.
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PartyNextDoor & Drake, $ome $exy $ongs 4 U (OVO/Santa Anna/Republic): Drake hasn’t been able to find a lot of wins since taking the consensus loss in his culture-conquering 2024 beef with Kendrick Lamar – the after-effects of which continue to permeate the culture on a weekly basis nearly a year later, with Lamar’s signature diss track “Not Like Us” recently winning five Grammys and serving as the centerpiece moment for the most-watched Super Bowl halftime show in history. But Drake may be due for a pretty big W shortly, following the release of his first full-length album since 2023’s For All the Dogs – the Valentine’s Day-released, R&B-focused $ome $exy $ongs 4 U, a teamup with longtime OVO labelmate and collaborator PartyNextDoor.
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The 21-track effort from the two Toronto natives unsurprisingly blanketed the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music real-time charts upon its release, even breaking the record for the biggest R&B/soul album in Apple Music’s history by first-day streams worldwide, and remains a major presence on both listings near the end of the tracking week. While many of the tracks have receded in daily streams since the set dropped, a couple have continued to grow, including the poppier mid-album cuts “Die Trying” and “Nokia,” the latter of which has also spent the majority of the week atop the iTunes real-time chart. The set is also being sold on CD via the album’s own website, with three variants of the CD case available for purchase.
Though the album might not match the first-week numbers of some past chart-conquering Drake projects – including the 404,000 first-week units posted by 2023’s Her Loss, his most recent full-length collaboration, alongside star rapper 21 Savage – it seems likely to return The Boy to No. 1, tying him with Jay-Z for the most Billboard 200 No. 1 albums of any rapper (with 14) and at least temporarily silence critics who declared him “done” following the feud. And of course, with Lamar’s GNX currently occupying the chart’s top spot, it could give him a much-needed triumph in the headlines over his perpetually victory-lapping foe.
Kendrick Lamar, GNX (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Even if Drake takes the Billboard 200’s top spot next week, don’t expect Kendrick Lamar to disappear from the chart in the weeks after his Super Bowl performance. In fact, in his first full tracking week following that globally buzzed-about Feb. 9 show, Lamar’s streaming numbers should be even more robust, with performed hits from his 2024 blockbuster GNX like “Squabble Up,” “TV Off” and the SZA-featuring “Luther” continuing to be consumed en masse, and the latter even threatening Lamar’s own “Not Like Us” to take over the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week.
Could it potentially stave off $ome $exy $ongs in that set’s debut week, giving K-Dot one more KO in this now-largely one-sided battle? It doesn’t seem too likely, given the natural disadvantages the 12-track GNX faces in terms of total streams when compared to the 21-track $$$4U – and the fact that the set should slide in terms of sales next week, after the set’s physical release on cassette, vinyl and CD format two Fridays ago (Feb. 7) helped it sell over 100,000 copies for the tracking week ending Feb. 13. Still, with so many of its tracks reconfirmed as streaming monsters, the album is likely to hang around the chart’s upper tier in the weeks to come — meaning we could very easily see GNX return to No. 1 for a third time in a future slow-release week.
Sabrina Carpenter, Short n’ Sweet (Island): Speaking of 2024 blockbusters – another one that’s spent multiple weeks atop the Billboard 200 and hung around the top 10 for many months since should be due for some big gains next week. On Friday (Feb. 14), pop superstar Sabrina Carpenter released the deluxe edition of her four-week No. 1 Short n’ Sweet, expanding the 12-track set to 17 — with four entirely new songs, and a redo of the set’s Hot 100-topping “Please Please Please,” featuring guest vocals from country icon Dolly Parton.
The combination of the original set’s sustained streaming performance – it’s held in the lower half of the top 10 on the Billboard 200 for the whole of February – and the boost it should get from the new deluxe edition should make it one of the top contenders on the chart next week. The bonus cuts have all seen solid streaming bows, with “Busy Woman” in particular appearing to be something of a breakout hit, and the deluxe version of the album should also do well in physical sales, with the set available on her webstore in both azure- and pearl-colored vinyl, and on lipstick-marked CD.
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The Lumineers, Automatic (Dualtone): The arena-folk stars’ first new album since 2022’s Brightside doesn’t quite include the radio hits of previous sets, but does arrive during a time where a new wave of stomp-clappers led by Noah Kahan have reintroduced their signature sound to the mainstream – and is available for purchase in eight vinyl variants, including a signed edition. Each of The Lumineers’ four previous albums reached the Billboard 200’s top 10, though with streaming unlikely to offer a ton of help, the set will need to sell quite well to extend that streak to five.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 22, we look at the multiple Kendrick Lamar songs that could have a shot at capturing the No. 1 spot following the rapper’s Super Bowl halftime performance.
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Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us,” “Luther” (with SZA) & “TV Off” (feat. TV Gunplay) (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar just electrified the music-listening world with one of the most-anticipated Super Bowl halftime shows of all time — coming not just one week after a Grammy sweep on Feb. 2 that saw Lamar win all five of his nominations (including record and song of the year), but a year-long run of one W after another that saw him earn our editorial staff’s Greatest Pop Star of 2024 title. The performance was the most-watched in the show’s history, according to presenter Apple Music and the NFL, with over 133.5 million people tuning in to see K Dot take the ultimate victory lap.
And of course, the song they were most interested in seeing him play was his 2024 Billboard Hot 100-topper “Not Like Us.” The already-legendary diss track, our editorial staff’s No. 1 song of last year, had been tied up in litigation in recent months, thanks to lawsuits levied by its target, fellow rap superstar Drake, who seemed intent on making it difficult for his opponent to play the incendiary cut on the world’s biggest stage. But Lamar indeed delivered the song as his performance’s centerpiece, even offering a conspicuous (and already much-memed) smile to the camera upon his first “Say Drake…” mention.
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Though “Not Like Us” has been out for eight months already at this point, and enjoyed two separate trips to No. 1 on the Hot 100 (the second coming after the release of its similarly headline-capturing music video in July), it should have a good chance of capturing the top spot again this week. The song, which has continued to linger on the Hot 100 (already rebounding to No. 15 this week, in anticipation of Lamar’s set and following his big Grammy night), shot back to the top of the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, the Apple Music real-time chart and the iTunes chart following Lamar’s performance, as its performance on Sunday night remains at the center of all pop- and hip-hop-related discussion this week.
But it’s not Lamar’s only track threatening the No. 1 spot this week. Lamar has also seen big gains this week for his GNX single “Luther,” which he and collaborator SZA also gave a centerpiece spot during his halftime set, and which currently ranks just below “Not Like Us” at No. 2 on each of the aforementioned rankings. And right underneath them is the Lefty Gunplay-featuring “TV Off,” which Lamar offered immediately following “Not Like Us” as the closing part of his performance – with producer Mustard coming out to dance and silently rap along to the anthem. “Luther” and “TV Off” are also in prime position on the Hot 100 currently, ranking at No. 3 and No. 10 on this week’s chart, respectively.
Radio play will also be a major factor in which of the Super Bowl-boosted Kendrick tracks plays the biggest threat to the Hot 100’s top spot next week. “Luther” is currently leading there, as it bounds from No. 14 to 11 on the Radio Songs chart this week, and has already been up another 9% in audience impressions over the first four days of this tracking week (Feb. 7-10), according to Luminate. But “TV Off” is also gaining, and “Not Like Us” is now rebounding as well, up a whopping 35% over that same four-day period.
If “Not Like Us” can sustain across streaming, sales and radio throughout the week, it might have the best chance of jumping to No. 1 next week – which would make it the extremely rare non-holiday single with three different runs at No. 1, each separated by multiple months. And regardless, we should see a whole lot of Kendrick Lamar in the top 10 next week.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra” (Interscope/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” is officially the song to beat this early 2025, with the superstar duet returning for a fifth frame at No. 1 this week, after briefly being interrupted by Travis Scott’s pole position-debuting “4×4.” The song has even finally captured the crown on Radio Songs, after Shaboozey’s historic 27-week run atop that chart with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” and should also reign for a second week on that listing – though it will likely soon face serious competition from another starry Bruno Mars teamup, with ROSÉ on “APT.”
Speaking of Bruno and Gaga providing their own competition – the latter now has a breakout smash entirely of her own. Her “Abracadabra” bows at No. 29 on the Hot 100 this week with just over four days of tracking, after debuting with its music video as part of a Mastercard commercial during the Grammys. The song got off to a white-hot start on streaming, and continued growing in the days after, even briefly capturing the top spot on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart — though it has since gotten buried under an avalanche of Kendrick Lamar and SZA. Regardless, the song should make a big jump in its first full week on the Hot 100 – perhaps to the top 10, if it doesn’t get boxed out by Kendrick – and is already aiming to debut on Pop Airplay, as well.
Chappell Roan, “Pink Pony Club” (Amusement/Island): Don’t forget about the Grammys’ best new artist, who has been surging on the Hot 100 following her big win and show-stopping performance of what now appears to be the signature song of Roan’s early career, “Pink Pony Club.” Despite being originally released in 2020, the song is only now really catching on both streaming and radio, as it re-enters Streaming Songs at No. 24 and hits a new high of No. 32 on Radio Songs this week. It should continue climbing on both listings next week, and may also rise on the Hot 100, after hitting a new peak of No. 18 this week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 15, we look at the biggest threats to capture the No. 1 spot after Travis Scott’s “4×4” debuted atop the listing this week.
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Morgan Wallen, “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Perhaps the most consistent artist in the upper stretches of the Billboard charts the past two years has been Morgan Wallen, who has racked up three Hot 100 No. 1s since 2023 (with his own “Last Night” and “Love Somebody” and the Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help”) and another five top 10 hits. On Friday (Jan. 31), he returned with the new single “I’m the Problem,” a bitter song about a toxic relationship that will serve as the lead single and title track for his upcoming fourth album, his first since 2023’s behemoth One Thing at a Time (still in the Billboard 200’s top five nearly two years later).
Unsurprisingly, “Problem” is off to a strong start on streaming, topping both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the real-time Apple Music chart after its Friday release. The song has started to slide on both listings perhaps a little quicker than expected, with it being replaced by SZA’s Kendrick Lamar-featuring “30 for 30” atop the Apple Music chart and falling all the way out of the top 10 already on the Spotify listing. But it remains in the top 10 on iTunes even after getting passed by a number of Grammy-boosted songs, and it’s off to a hot start at country radio, with over eight million airplay impressions in its first four days of tracking (through Feb. 3), according to Luminate.
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“Problem” might not quite have the streaming start to be on the inside track for a No. 1 debut, but it should at least be another top 10 hit for the dominant country superstar.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite Lady Gaga being present and performing at the two most high-profile multi-artist gigs of 2025 so far – Thursday’s FireAid concert at the Intuit Dome, where she closed out the multi-hour fundraising event, and Sunday’s Grammys, where she actually performed with Bruno Mars – she did not play her and Mars’ four-week No. 1 at either show. (Gaga and Bruno instead covered The Mamas and the Papas’ ‘60s classic “California Dreamin’” at Music’s Biggest Night.) Nevertheless, the song could get a bump from its win for best pop duo/group performance, and for Gaga’s headline-capturing acceptance speech standing up for the trans community.
In any event, “Die With a Smile” remains a monster on streaming, sticking in the top 10 on Apple Music and climbing back to No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Songs Top USA chart. It also continues to threaten the reign of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” on radio, though that 27-week Radio Songs No. 1 might not give up that spot so easily. Regardless, its continued strong showing across streaming, sales and radio, it should be a pretty strong contender to return to No. 1 for a fifth frame next week.
The Weeknd, “Cry for Me” & “Timeless” (w/ Playboi Carti) (XO/Republic): The Weeknd had a pretty enormous weekend, appropriately, as he both released his new album Hurry Up Tomorrow on Friday and then made a surprise return to the Grammys stage on Sunday after essentially boycotting the awards for four years after his After Hours blockbuster was shockingly ignored by the Recording Academy in 2021. The two songs he performed at the Grammys are also the two leading early performers from Tomorrow: “Timeless,” the Playboi Carti teamup that has already reached No. 3 on the Hot 100, and “Cry for Me,” a newly released early-album highlight.
Both songs should be a factor in the top 10 race next week. “Cry for Me” has the edge on Apple Music, while “Timeless” leads on Spotify – and “Timeless” is obviously ahead on radio, having a months-long head start building airplay (though “Cry for Me” should debut on Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay this week). Neither is likely to be No. 1 next week, but The Weeknd always has tricks up his sleeve to give his hits a little extra boot, so they can’t be totally counted out in the weeks to come.
Travis Scott, “4×4” (Cactus Jack/Epic): The current No. 1 song on the Hot 100 is likely to have a considerable drop in week two, as the gargantuan first-week sales number the song posted (167,000) inevitably recedes, and the streaming numbers continue to slide. (The song is already out of the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music.) Nonetheless, Travis Scott‘s “4×4” won’t disappear completely, and has started to make gains on radio, with the song expected to jump on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay in its second week, and possibly even make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay.
Doechii, “Denial Is a River” (Top Dawg/Capitol/ICLG): It won’t be a top 10 contender just yet, but the breakout hit from Doechii’s now-Grammy-winning mixtape Alligator Bites Never Heal (which she performed, along with “Catfish”) should be the biggest beneficiary from her post-Grammy-night bump in streams and sales — and had already started to make pretty big waves on the charts, climbing to No. 55 on the Hot 100 this week. Radio is starting to kick in for the track as well, with “Denial” also a threat to make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay while shooting up Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Feb. 8, we look at a bunch of new albums, led by the sequel set from one of last year’s greatest chart breakthrough stories.
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Teddy Swims, I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Pt. 2) (SWIMS Int./Warner): Few artists enjoyed a mainstream breakout in 2024 like Teddy Swims, whose megaballad “Lose Control” not only topped the 2024 year-end Billboard Hot 100 after first reaching the chart in late 2023, but which still ranks in the listing’s top 10 this week. That song came from Swims’ debut album I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Pt. 1), which reached No. 17 on the Billboard 200 and spawned a second hit in the more uptempo No. 26-peaking “The Door.”
Now, the big-voiced Georgia singer-songwriter is back with that set’s follow-up, logically titled I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Pt. 2). The new album is available in eight vinyl variants, including one signed by Swims, as well as standard and signed CD editions, and a standard digital download. The set also features two more chart hits in “Bad Dreams” (No. 57) and Giveon collab “Are You Even Real” (No. 59), with Swims performing the latter on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon Jan. 23, just before the album’s release.
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Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): Speaking of Fallon: His recent co-host Bad Bunny should provide the biggest challenge to Swims scoring his first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 next week. Debí Tirar Más Fotos climbed to the chart’s apex — after debuting at No. 2 in an incomplete debut tracking week — and moved a fairly staggering 203,500 units in its second frame, as the critically acclaimed album continued to catch fire on streaming through word of mouth and through a handful of viral hits, most notably quasi-title track “DtMF,” which shot to No. 2 on the Hot 100.
This week, the set has cooled down a little from its blazing start, but remains a major force across streaming – claiming six of the top 25 spots on Apple Music’s real time chart and five of the top 25 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA, including “DtMF” still reigning at No. 1. No tracks from the Swims set are currently even in the top 50 on either chart, which means it will have to sell a tremendous number of physical copies to threaten Bad Bunny’s blockbuster on next week’s chart – a big ask for such a still relatively new artist.
Kane Brown, The High Road (RCA Nashville): A longer-established hitmaker with a new set this week is country star Kane Brown, who has hit the Billboard 200’s top five with each of his top three albums, including 2018s’ chart-topping Experiment. His new set The High Road – not to be confused with recent “High Road” country hits by Zach Bryan and Koe Wetzel & Jessie Murph – features 18 tracks, including already-minted hits “Miles on It” (with EDM star Marshmello) and the Phil Collins-interpolating “I Can Feel It.” The album is available in nine vinyl variants (including signed editions), as well as three d2c-only digital album variants with different cover art, and at leat four CD variants, also including signed editions.
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Central Cee, Can’t Rush Greatness (CC4L/Columbia): U.K. MC Central Cee has been one of the globe’s hottest rappers for most of the 2020s album, but is only now releasing debut album Can’t Rush Greatness – hence the title. The 17-track set features U.S. rap stars 21 Savage, Lil Durk and Lil Baby, the latter on last year’s top 20 Hot 100 hit “BAND4BAND.” The album should stream well, and has already caused a minor internet fury with its track “5 Star” — which contained rhymes perceived as a diss towards fellow U.K. hip-hop hitmaker Aitch, who responded the same day of its release with his own “A Guy Called?”
FKA twigs, Eusexua (Young/Altantic): Wildly acclaimed for over a decade now, U.K. electro-soul singer-songwriter FKA twigs is back this week with the much-anticipated Eusexua, her first LP since 2022’s Caprisongs. The album is available in six vinyl variants, signed and unsigned CDs, cassette and two digital download variants, one a d2c exclusive with a bonus track. Twigs definitely hasn’t lost her fastball as a critics’ darling, as Eusexua is already one of the year’s strongest-reviewed sets, including a rare 9.1 rating from Pitchfork.