State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 6, a couple true chart heavyweights duke it out for the top spot.
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Stray Kids, DO IT (JYP/Republic): A new five-track mixtape wouldn’t be a particularly big threat from most artists to take down the record-setting new album by the biggest pop star in the world. But when it comes to the Billboard 200, Stray Kids isn’t most artists. Between albums, EPs and mixtapes, the South Korean pop octet has launched seven sets onto the Billboard 200 since 2022 — and all seven of them have debuted at No. 1. The Kids haven’t missed the top spot yet.
Now, they look to go eight-for-eight with DO IT, the five-track set officially being called the group’s new mixtape, released last Friday (Nov. 21). The release, which offers both a regular version and a “Festival Version” of its title track as its bookending cuts, got off to a strong streaming start, with each of its four new tracks debuting on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. (“Do It” remains on the listing four days later.)
But as is usually the case with Stray Kids, physical sales will likely provide the biggest chunk of the album’s overall first-week consumption. To that end, the group has made DO IT available in a wide array of formats — including seven CD variants, all featuring collectibles (some randomized). There’s also four total webstore-exclusive download versions of the mixtape, each of which adds its own “chat” bonus audio tracks with the bandmembers.
Will it all be enough for the Kids to unseat Republic labelmate Taylor Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl, which has reigned for the first seven weeks of its release? Well, in its seventh and most recent week at No. 1, Showgirl amassed 93,000 total equivalent album units. The group’s last Billboard 200-topper, this September’s full studio album KARMA, bowed with 313,000 units. The shorter DO IT might not post numbers quite so robust, but if it’s anywhere in range of that number — well over triple what Showgirl posted in last week — it’s going to be pretty challenging for Swift to make up the difference.
Wicked Movie Cast, Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good — The Soundtrack (Republic/Verve): Even without a new Stray Kids project, it would still be far from smooth sailing for Swift’s blockbuster on the Billboard 200 this week. Showgirl also has to compete with perhaps the year’s most-anticipated movie soundtrack (and yet another fellow Republic release), with the accompanying OST to blockbuster film musical sequel Wicked: For Good also debuting on Friday — featuring musical contributions from co-stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, as well as cast members Jonathan Bailey, Michelle Yeoh, Jeff Goldblum and more.
The set has also gotten off to a solid start on DSPs, with a number of songs debuting on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart — most of which have stuck around throughout the week, most notably Erivo and Grande dueting on the “For Good” title track. The album should also sell well to the musical’s (and stars’) many obsessive fans, particularly with seven vinyl and four CD variants available for purchase, one of the latter also coming signed by Erivo and Grande.
Does For Good also have a strong chance at a six-digit debut? If the performance of the original Wicked: The Soundtrack is any indication, then yes: That set bowed with 139,000 units in December 2024, with 85,000 of that number coming in sales. This set may come up a little short of that, with the musical’s first half containing some of its more traditionally beloved songs, like “Defying Gravity” and “Popular.”
But this new set does have the benefit of a pair of new compositions: the Erivo solo “No Place Like Home” and Grande solo “The Girl in the Bubble.” And it also now has a historic box office bow for the movie it accompanies — not to mention Thanksgiving weekend (and Black Friday) coming up — meaning that if it doesn’t get to 100k this week, it very well still might in week two.
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Nov. 29, as Taylor Swift and KPop Demon Hunters continue to reign on the chart, a flurry of new albums looks to get in just behind them.
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Summer Walker, Finally Over It (LVRN/Interscope): It’s been four years since R&B star Summer Walker’s previous album Still Over It – twice the time it took in between that set and predecessor Over It – so her new album certainly rates as one of 2025’s most-anticipated. Finally Over It finally arrived on Friday (Nov. 12), with an 18-track, two-disc streaming edition that includes big-name features from Chris Brown, 21 Savage, Doja Cat, Teddy Swims and many more.
The set has some big numbers to live up to following Still Over It, which became Walker’s first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 when it debuted atop the chart with a career-best 166,000 first-week units. That set was riding momentum from both the slow-building acclaim for the original Over It and a top 40-charting Hot 100 hit lead single in “Ex for a Reason”; it may be tougher for Finally Over It to match that after four years and without a new single (though “Heart of a Woman” did reach No. 57 on the chart in late 2024).
Tracks from Finally littered the top of the real-time Apple Music chart upon the album’s release, but its presence on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing was more muted — with no songs remaining in the top 200 on the Nov. 18-dated chart — so the album will have to sell in big numbers to threaten the top of the charts. To that end, Walker has released four vinyl editions of the album (with 14 tracks on all physical releases), as well as four CD boxed set editions, each with a branded piece of clothing and a copy of the CD.
In addition, on Tuesday night Walker released the set’s Cocktail Hour deluxe edition as an Apple/iTunes exclusive for streaming and download — with five audio bonus tracks. She also dropped a The Afterparty deluxe edition of the album to DSPs and download services, which adds three different new tracks to the 18-track set, including a solo version of the original’s Anderson .Paak collab “1-800 Heartbreak.” It might be enough to make Taylor Swift sweat at the very top of the chart, but it should elbow Finally Over It into the discussion for the week’s top debut.
NF, Fear (NF/Capitol): Don’t count out NF, who hasn’t had a major crossover hit since 2017’s “Let You Down,” but who maintains a very steady chart presence — with a pair of No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200, and a No. 2 bow most recently with 2023’s Hope. His latest release isn’t a full-length, but a six-track EP; still, all six tracks debuted in the top 60 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart (including two in the top 10); all six bowed higher than any track from Still Over It.
The set should also sell well to the rapper’s highly devoted fanbase, with Hope available for purchase in a pair of vinyl variants, a standard CD, and a deluxe CD boxed set (with a T-shirt and CD) — with signed copies of the set previously available on his webstore already sold out. If the set’s streaming performance can remain strong enough to make up for its relatively short track length, it should have a strong chance of a top five debut, and may also contend for the highest-bowing set of next week.
5 Seconds of Summer, Everyone’s a Star! (Republic): Now a full decade past its initial breakthrough, Australian pop-rock group 5 Seconds of Summer has maintained a respectable mainstream standing by evolving and maturing as it’s progressed. Consequently, it’s managed to reach the top two on the Billboard 200 with each of its first five studio albums, most recently reaching No. 2 with 2022’s 5SOS.
The band’s new embrace of self-awareness on Friday’s Everyone’s a Star! can be seen both in advance single “Boyband” and the name of its Cool Dad deluxe edition — a webstore exclusive with five additional tracks (including the title track), to go with a separate Fully Evolved deluxe (four bonus tracks, not with “Cool Dad”) and seven additional variants in both vinyl and CD. The surfeit of deluxe editions should help the album reach the Billboard 200’s top 10, though continuing the group’s streak of top twos might be a bit out of reach.
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Nov. 22, as Taylor Swift and KPop Demon Hunters continue to rule the roost, we look at artists with good chances to break into the top 10 below them.
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Rosalía, LUX (Columbia): Few new pop sets this year have been either as hotly anticipated or as rapturously received as Spanish singer-songwriter Rosalía’s ambitious new set LUX, which arrived on Friday (Nov. 7). That is, if you can even plausibly call the album pop: While the album certainly has its big melodies and catchy moments, it’s as influenced by opera, classical, jazz and showtunes as much as it is by any of the genres most directly feeding into contemporary top 40, and it’s sung in over a dozen different languages.
Still, LUX has proven dazzling enough to delight critics and fans alike — and given both its rapturous critical acclaim and its strong start on streaming, it seems likely to become Rosalía’s highest-charting album on the Billboard 200 to date. Aiding its first-week performance will be its availability for purchase in four different CD boxed sets — each including branded merch and a CD — as well two vinyl editions, one of which is signed by the artist.
Will it be enough to get Lux to the Billboard 200’s top 10 — which, somewhat surprisingly for an artist of Rosalía’s profile, she has still yet to even get near, peaking highest (No. 33) with 2022’s Motomami? With solid sales and steady streams, it certainly seems likely — with a top five debut also a possibility — though it depends on both how well the set maintains on DSPs, as other more-streaming-proven releases continue to perform at a high level.
But it helps that the set already seems to have something of a breakout hit: Yahritza y Su Esencia collab “La Perla,” which is still on both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music real-time charts, and climbing again on each.
Hayley Williams, Ego Death at a Bachelor Party (Post Atlantic): Hayley Williams’ first release on her new independent imprint Post Atlantic — can you guess which major label she recently parted ways with? — has had an extremely unconventional rollout. First, in late July Williams released 17 of its tracks to her website for free streaming, before uploading them to DSPs all as individual singles in early August. Then in late August, the set was collected on streaming as the full album Ego Death at a Bachelor Party, with two new songs joining the then-19-track set.
Now, the album has reached its (possibly) final form: Last week, Williams released Ego Death on CD and vinyl for the first time — while also re-releasing it to DSPs — all with the extra new track “Showbiz” now making the tracklist an even 20 songs. The set, which was very well received by fans and critics even with its somewhat jumbled release, should sell fairly well — with multiple vinyl variants on sale — and Ego Death should bound up from its No. 173 debut this week on the Billboard 200 (due to early availability of its vinyl in some indie stores), possibly even threatening a new peak in the top 10.
IN THE MIX
Sombr, I Barely Know Her (SMB/Warner): One of the year’s most exciting new breakout hitmakers is coming off a very big weekend, both scoring his first Grammy nomination (for best new artist) and making his debut appearance on Saturday Night Live as a performer. Keeping the good times rolling: the first physical release on CD, vinyl and cassette of his debut album I Barely Know Her, which should give the album a nice boost on the Billboard 200, from where it currently sits at No. 27 to somewhere around its original No. 10 peak.
Yeonjun, No Labels Part 1 (Big Hit): Also threatening the top 10 this week: the debut solo EP from Yeonjun, singer/songwriter in the chart-topping Korean pop group TOMORROW X TOGETHER. The six-track set does not yet have a major presence on streaming, but is expected to sell very well, assisted by a litany of different CD variants, each including collectible paper goods, some of which is randomized per copy.
Trending on Billboard Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas” is making waves on the Country Airplay chart, Sombr’s “Back to Friends” hit No. 12 on the Hot 100 — but can the two songs break into the top 10 of the Hot 100? Can Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need” head into the top three of the chart? […]
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 8, we look at the chances HUNTR/X has of recapturing the crown that Taylor Swift has held for the last three weeks.
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Taylor Swift, “The Fate of Ophelia” (Republic): Taylor Swift’s dominance atop the Hot 100 since the release of her The Life of a Showgirl album has been typically staggering: Not only did she dominate the entire top 10 (and the two spots just outside) with its 12 tracks in the album’s debut chart week (dated Oct. 18), she also held eight of the top 10 in its second week (Oct. 25) and four this week (Nov. 1). And in all three of those weeks, the same Showgirl song has reigned atop the Hot 100: lead single and album opener “The Fate of Ophelia.”
“Ophelia” opened with historic streaming numbers and a gigantic radio debut, posting one of the best all-around single-week performances of any song in 2025, even without being available for single-song purchase in its debut frame. It has slipped heavily in streaming each week since — probably somewhat inevitably given the gaudy numbers it posted initially — but has still remained the most-streamed song in the country by a fairly comfortable margin.
That may change next week. According to early data provided by Luminate, “Ophelia” has slipped another 19% in official on-demand U.S. streams through the first four days of this tracking week (Oct. 24-27) compared to the same period last tracking week, to 15.7 million streams. For the first time since its debut week, it is on track to fall out of the top spot on Streaming Songs. (Notably, programmed streams, not just on-demand, also contribute to the Hot 100.)
It still has the slight edge in song sales over the other hits competing for the Hot 100’s top spot — and it should also net some extra sales from the solo commercial release of its “Alone in My Tower” acoustic version on Tuesday (Oct. 28), which was previously only available as part of one of the album’s deluxe editions.
But the real X factor here will be radio. While “Ophelia” slipped 19% in streams, it also gained 20% in all-format airplay audience Oct. 24-27, according to Luminate, as it continues climbing in the top five on Radio Songs, Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay. If it can continue to grow there in the final days of the tracking week while stabilizing on streaming, it might be able to hold onto the Hot 100 crown for a fourth frame. (Perhaps with a ghostly remix featuring an apparition of Hamlet’s Ophelia, right in time for Halloween?)
HUNTR/X: EJAE, Audrey Nuna & Rei Ami, “Golden” (Visva/Republic): The biggest threat to Swift’s Hot 100 rule is from the song she deposed in the first place: “Golden,” from KPop Demon Hunters. The HUNTR/X anthem has remained a strong performer in the three weeks it’s had to cede the crown, and returns to No. 2 on this week’s chart, rebounding all the way from No. 13 two weeks earlier, when it got buried under the Showgirl avalanche.
“Golden” is currently on track to pass “Ophelia” on streaming next week, having amassed nearly 16.3 million official on-demand streams through the first four days of the tracking week — a 3% dip from its numbers during the equivalent period the previous week, but still a 3% lead over the numbers for Swift’s single. (The impending Halloween weekend could also help it remain strong through the tracking week’s final days, as KPop Demon Hunters-themed costumes are expected to dominate the season.)
“Ophelia” maintains a slight lead on “Golden” in sales, but again, radio may ultimately be a deciding factor. While it’s not growing there as quickly this week as “Ophelia,” it has a head start of several months — and it is still building on the airwaves, aiming to take over Pop Airplay for the first time. It could be a photo finish between arguably the two biggest pop culture phenomena of all of 2025 on next week’s chart.
IN THE MIX
Olivia Dean, “Man I Need” (Polydor/Island/Republic): The artist showing the most consistent growth on the Hot 100 this week is again Olivia Dean, whose “Man I Need” hits the top 10 for the first time (moving 17-8), while her other two Hot 100 hits (“So Easy [To Fall in Love]” and “Nice to Each Other”) also hit new peaks of No. 44 and No. 88, respectively. “Man I Need” continues to gain across the board — particularly on radio, where it’s up 25% in all-format audience through the first four days of the tracking week — though it still has some additional distance to make up to really get in the fight for No. 1 with Swift and HUNTR/X.
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Nov. 1, we look at some new blood that might freshen up the chart’s top 10 in the coming weeks.
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Olivia Dean, “Man I Need” (Capitol/Polydor/Republic): If there’s one rising pop star actually making a noteworthy impact in this period of total Taylor Swift dominance, it’s Olivia Dean. The U.K. throwback singer-songwriter has been gradually entrancing bigger audiences on both sides of the pond for all of 2025, and it’s resulted in her new album The Art of Loving not only debuting atop the U.K. Official Albums Chart and in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 — but climbing one spot on the latter chart in each of the two weeks since its bow, as multiple songs from it continue to grow on streaming.
The biggest of those breakout songs is easily the jubilant advance single “Man I Need,” which first crossed over to the Hot 100 in August. “Man” bounded its way up to No. 12 on the chart earlier this October, before getting buried (like the rest of the chart) under Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl avalanche, falling to No. 20. This week, it begins its rebound, climbing back to No. 17.
It should have even more room to grow soon. Not only will some of the Showgirl songs start to slip out of the top 15, but there are additional openings in the chart’s top tier now thanks to recent Billboard rule changes allowing for songs to go recurrent on the Hot 100 quicker than they used to — with such long-running chart smashes as Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control,” Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” and Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” falling off the chart this week as a result.
With those hits out of the way, and Swift’s songs losing momentum in their third week of release, it could be a clear path for “Man I Need” to become Dean’s first Hot 100 top 10 hit in the next week or two. Also helping: Radio has begun to embrace the song, as it debuts at No. 40 on Radio Songs this week, and rose 30% in airplay audience over the first four days of the current tracking week (Oct. 17-20), compared to the previous period, according to Luminate.
Leon Thomas, “Mutt” (EZMNY/Motown/Interscope Capitol): “Mutt” has been sniffing around the top 10 of the Hot 100 for months now, peaking as high as No. 11 on the chart before also falling prey to the swarm of Swift debuts. Thomas‘ breakout hit is steady at No. 18 this week, and may be due for a rebound in the weeks to come with space likely opening up above it.
And despite a radio presence that has already been gaining momentum for most of 2025 — the single was technically a summer 2024 release — the song is still growing this late into the year. It reaches a new No. 3 peak on Radio Songs this week, with 59.2 million in all-format radio audience, and climbs 9-7 on Pop Airplay. If it just stays the course for another week or two, “Mutt” may finally have its day inside the top 10.
Kelahni, “Folded” (Atlantic): A long-overdue pop win for acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter Kehlani came this summer with her viral “Folded,” which gradually slithered its way into the Hot 100’s top 20. It’s receded to No. 21 since peaking at No. 18, but radio is really starting to try it on — the song rises to No. 13 on Radio Songs this week, while it holds in the top five on R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay and even bubbles under Pop Airplay — and its streaming remains very strong.
Tame Impala, “Dracula” (Columbia): For the last decade, we’d only be talking about Kevin Parker’s Hot 100 presence in the context of his writing and production work for pop A-listers like Lady Gaga, Travis Scott and Dua Lipa. That changes this month with the breakout of his outfit Tame Impala’s dancefloor-ready single “Dracula,” which debuted at No. 55 on the Hot 100 two weeks ago and sits at No. 59 this week.
The song should make a particular surge on next week’s Hot 100, thanks to the debut of “Dracula” parent album Deadbeat — the added streams and momentum from which have even vaulted the song into the top 10 on Spotify’s still Showgirl-littered Daily Top Songs USA chart. From there, it might just be a question of how much radio joins the party — and early signs are encouraging on that front, as the song is up 28% in all-format reach over the first four days of the current tracking week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 21, we look at the chances of Sabrina Carpenter’s new single to enter atop the Hot 100 – and the competition it faces from Alex Warren’s reigning champ.
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Sabrina Carpenter, “Manchild” (Island/Republic): When “Ordinary” was revealed as the No. 1 single on the Billboard Hot 100 a couple weeks ago, rocketing past all three Morgan Wallen songs that had moved above it in the top three the week before, it looked like it might have a relatively clear path to rule the chart for a long time. Then, last Tuesday (June 3), an announcement came that made it clear its competition would soon be stiffer than expected: Sabrina Carpenter, one of the decade’s biggest breakout pop stars, would be returning with a brand new single.
“Manchild,” written and produced by Carpenter along with the dream team behind her first Hot 100 No. 1, “Please Please Please” — Jack Antonoff and Amy Allen – debuted on Thursday night (June 5) after just a few days of teasing. The song, packed with the hooks and humor that elevated Carpenter to superstar status during her Short n’ Sweet era, also came with an (at times literally) explosive new video seemingly custom-designed for screengrab memes. It got off to a similarly incendiary start on streaming, bowing atop the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart with about twice the streams of the No. 2 song.
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Those streaming numbers fell significantly over the weekend, but have rebounded slightly over the week, and now look to portend a very strong showing for “Manchild” on DSPs. Whether it will be enough to help the song capture the Hot 100’s top spot is another matter – particularly as it gets started on radio, where it’s off to a solid start, even threatening a Radio Songs chart debut in its first week, but obviously lags behind Carpenter’s enduring 2024 hits “Espresso” and “Taste,” which still have a fairly considerable presence on the airwaves.
It will help “Manchild” that the song is selling fairly well, having spent most of the past four days in the top five of iTunes’ real-time chart. It even returned to No. 1 following the Tuesday discounting of the song to 69 cents – which, along with a vinyl single now available for purchase on her webstore (including the exclusive B-side “inside of your head when you’ve just won an argument with a man”), would seem to indicate that Carpenter’s team likely feels like the No. 1 is within reach. It should be a close race regardless, and may come down to the final days – if not the final hours – of tracking-week consumption.
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): After capturing the top spot on the Hot 100 two weeks ago, “Ordinary” shows no real signs of slowing down, as its radio play continues to rise – up 8% in all-format airplay June 6-9, according to Luminate — and streaming and sales both remain highly stable. Despite its follow-up, the Jelly Roll collab “Bloodline,” debuting last week, it doesn’t seem like Alex Warren‘s new song has sapped any of the “Ordinary” momentum, as the latter remains the early Song of the Summer frontrunner.
Even if “Manchild” does manage to topple it on next week’s chart, “Ordinary” has the consistent cross-platform success to challenge for the top spot for many weeks still to come – and could take back over from Carpenter’s latest almost immediately, once the first-week streaming and sales numbers from the latter inevitably recede in week two. And Warren announced last week that the release of new set You’ll Be All Right, Kid (Pt. 2) will arrive on July 18, and likely further extend the prominence of “Ordinary” even deeper into the summer.
Morgan Wallen, “What I Want” (feat. Tate McRae) & “Just in Case” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Speaking of songs still growing on radio, both of Morgan Wallen’s top-performing songs on the Hot 100 are also continuing to make their presence increasingly felt on the radio: Country radio single “Just in Case” climbs 38-37 on Radio Songs this week is up 7% in all-format play June 6-9, while the Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” being promoted to pop, surges 37%. The problem, as always with Morgan, is himself: Older hits “I’m the Problem,” “Love Somebody” and even his spring 2024 Post Malone collab “I Had Some Help” are still outperforming the rising songs across radio formats, and Wallen may need to be patient with those songs’ slow demises on the airwaves before those newer songs can fully take over.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated June 14, we look at a handful of albums likely to impact the top tier of the chart – a couple brand new, and a couple recently revitalized, led by a likely rebound from the biggest pop star in the world.
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Taylor Swift, Reputation (Big Machine): On a day of big new releases, last Friday (May 30) was still dominated by the news that Taylor Swift had officially acquired her own masters. Billboard reported from sources that she paid around $360 million for the acquisition from private equity firm Shamrock Capital, which had acquired the catalog in late 2020 from Scooter Braun’s Ithaca Holdings, after Braun had bought Swift’s old label Big Machine the year before. Braun’s initial purchase, and Swift’s negative reaction to her professional adversary having such a big stake in her history, had of course inspired the entire Taylor’s Version project — which led to Swift re-recording four of her first six albums over the course of 2021-2023, along with a number of period-appropriate rarities. That endeavor not only proved wildly successful for Swift, but played a major part in her 2020s ascension to a level of solo superstardom not seen before this century.
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One of the two Big Machine-era albums she had yet to get to with her Taylor’s Version series was Reputation, the divisive 2017 album that followed both her ultimate pop breakthrough with 2014’s 1989 and the backlash that ensued, particularly after her back-and-forth feuding with Kanye West and Kim Kardashian. Along with the announcement of the acquisition of her masters, Swift also revealed that Reputation (Taylor’s Version) had been the most challenging of the series for her to put together, as she found it difficult to get back into the headspace of that album era — and thus had not even finished re-recording a quarter of it. Fans could infer from her letter that now that Swift’s back catalog was once again her own, she would be unlikely to finish re-recording the rest of it anytime soon.
But while some fans may have been disappointed that they would not get the full Reputation (Taylor’s Version) package anytime soon — which was so long-anticipated that the original album got a consumption bump a couple weeks ago merely based on rumors that she might reveal something about it on the AMAs — most were ready to revisit the original album anyway. With no re-recording imminent, and Swift once again the owner of her back catalog, fans flocked to the original Reputation, resulting in it leaping to the top of the iTunes albums chart, and launching five of its tracks back onto the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for Saturday (May 31).
The major bump in sales and streams, for an album that was still ranking at No. 78 on the Billboard 200 in its 349th week on the chart, could see the album make a major rebound next week. It’s unlikely to supplant Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem — but no album is, as Problem posted 286,000 units this week (according to Luminate) in its second week atop the chart, and is likely to still be comfortably in the six figures in its third week, thanks to the 37-track set’s gargantuan streaming numbers. But it could get as high as the top five, maybe even to the runner-up spot, if fan enthusiasm maintains the further we get away from Swift’s Friday announcement. (Swift could also perhaps give sales a boost if she made the album available for sale on her webstore — as of publishing, it was still not listed there.)
Miley Cyrus, Something Beautiful (Columbia): Perhaps Swift’s main competition for the biggest chart-crasher this week is her old Hannah Montana: The Movie co-star Miley Cyrus. The veteran pop superstar returned on Friday with her new LP Something Beautiful, the audio part of a visual album project whose film accompaniment is set to premiere at the Tribeca Film Festival this Friday (June 6).
Something Beautiful follows 2023’s Endless Summer Vacation, and its galactically successful lead single “Flowers,” which became the biggest chart hit of Cyrus’ career and won her her first two Grammys. So far, none of the advance releases from Something Beautiful appear to be on anywhere near a “Flowers” trajectory, however — the only one of them to even reach the Billboard Hot 100 so far was official lead single “End of the World,” which debuted at No. 52 and fell off the chart after just four weeks.
While Something Beautiful is unlikely to be an immediate streaming blockbuster — as of midweek, none of its tracks appear on either the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA or the Apple Music real-time charts — it should sell relatively well. To help with that, the album is available in six different vinyl variants (including an artist webstore-exclusive signed version), as well as standard and signed CDs and two deluxe branded boxed sets with the CD and branded merch. At the very least, the set should extend Miley’s streak of top five albums on the Billboard 200 — which encompasses every one of her official studio releases dating back to 2007’s Meet Miley Cyrus, excepting 2015’s Miley Cyrus & Dead Petz, which was not initially given a commercial release.
SEVENTEEN, SEVENTEEN 5th Album ‘Happy Burstday’ (Pledis/YG Plus): Also aiming for the top five next week is an act with less stateside household-name recognition as Swift and Cyrus, but nearly as much of a presence on the albums chart. SEVENTEEN has reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 six times already in the 2020s, and even gotten as high as No. 2 with two 2023 releases, the EP FML and the mini-album Seventeenth Heaven.
The 13-member group is likely to return to the top 10 next week with its fifth full-length album, Happy Burstday — a 16-track effort that includes contributions from two of the biggest U.S. hitmakers of the early 21st-century in Pharrell and Timbaland. While SEVENTEEN has never been a major force on streaming in the U.S., the group are reliable high-sellers, and Burstday is available for purchase in a whopping 14 CD variants — all of which contain collectible branded paper ephemera, some of which is randomized. It should be enough for Burstday to be a real contender for the Billboard 200’s runner-up spot, along with the Swift and Cyrus sets.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 7, we look at the chances of Morgan Wallen and Tate McRae’s star-powered duet to continue its reign on the chart.
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Morgan Wallen feat. Tate McRae, “What I Want” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): The combined star power of country superpower Morgan Wallen and rising pop phenom Tate McRae helped boost “What I Want” to being not just the highest-ranking of Wallen’s record-breaking 37 tracks on the Hot 100 last week, but the No. 1 song period – Wallen’s fourth and McRae’s first. The debut came on the back of 31.2 million official streams, according to Luminate, allowing it to bow atop the Streaming Songs chart and making up for its relative lack of radio presence as a new song.
That streaming presence should still be very pronounced in its second week, as the song continues to reign on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart and the Apple Music real-time chart. And the song is already starting to make a radio impact: After debuting at Nos. 32 and 38 on Adult Pop Airplay and Pop Airplay, respectively, on this week’s charts (dated May 31), it’s pushing toward the top 25 on both. (On Country Airplay, it debuted at No. 55 this week but looks likely to fall off next week – granted it’s being promoted so far only to pop and adult formats.)
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If the song can hold for a second week, it will become the first multi-week Hot 100 No. 1 from I’m the Problem, pulling past the one-week No. 1 “Love Somebody,” which topped the chart last November. (It would still have another 14 weeks to go to tie the longest-reigning single from prior album One Thing at a Time, the 16-week No. 1 “Last Night” in 2023.)
Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): If not for Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem album debut, we might be talking about Alex Warren celebrating his first Hot 100 No. 1 single this week. After multiple frames of being at stuck at No. 2 behind Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther,” “Ordinary” finally moves ahead of that 13-week No. 1 – but still only ranks at No. 4 on this week’s chart, after falling behind three tracks from I’m the Problem.
Nevertheless, “Ordinary” should remain a strong contender for the top spot. It still ranks towards the top of the major streaming charts, and after reaching the Radio Songs top 10 this week, the song is now aiming for the top five; it’s up 16% in audience May 23-26 over the previous building week. It’s also challenging for No. 1 next week on Adult Pop Airplay, and could come for the crown on Pop Airplay not long after.
Meanwhile, Warren has a new song out in the Jelly Roll collab “Bloodline,” which should also be headed for a strong Hot 100 debut. But as shown with the success of recent artists like Teddy Swims and Benson Boone, having simultaneous follow-up hits can be more helpful than harmful to the original hits these days, so “Bloodline” doing well might boost “Ordinary” in its pursuit of the top spot.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case” and “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Morgan Wallen will still be seeing an awful lot of himself in the rearview mirror, as his solo songs that rank at No. 2 and 3 on the Hot 100 this week — “Just in Case” and “I’m the Problem,” respectively – should remain big factors on the chart next week as well. Though the two songs rank behind “What I Want” on DSPs, they still have the head start on radio: “Just in Case” continues climbing Country Airplay, though it could be still outside the top 10 next week, after rising to a new No. 13 high this week. Meanwhile, “I’m the Problem” has ruled Country Airplay for six weeks already, and could be on pace for a seventh week at No. 1.
If one of these other I’m the Problem tracks is able to pass “What I Want” on next week’s Hot 100, Wallen would replace himself on top for the first time in his career – becoming the first artist to do so since… Kendrick Lamar just a couple months ago, after a Super Bowl-rebounded “Not Like Us” gave way to “Luther” and its months-long reign.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 31, we look at the chances of “Lose Control” to set a record for chart endurance – if it can fend off a swarm of new Morgan Wallen chart hits, one of which may debut at No. 1.
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Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” (Warner): It’s been a staggering 91 weeks and counting on the Hot 100 for Teddy Swims’ crossover soul ballad “Lose Control.” Since the song debuted on the chart in August of 2023 (!!), it’s topped both the weekly chart (in March 2024) and the year-end Hot 100 (for all 2024), won a pair of Billboard Music Awards, and even been succeeded by another pair of top 40 hits in “The Door” and “Bad Dreams.” But all the while, “Lose Control” has lingered on the chart, scarcely losing momentum – and this week (on the chart dated May 24), spends a record-extending 62nd week inside the top 10, holding at No. 7.
This week also sees “Lose Control” tie Glass Animals’ “Heat Waves” for the longest total stay on the entire chart – and given its still-lofty position, it would seem a near-foregone conclusion that it would go on to break that mark next frame with a 92nd week. Complicating things, however, is the man who’s been most unmissable on the Billboard charts this decade: country superstar Morgan Wallen, whose new album I’m the Problem was released on Friday (May 16). Seven tracks from the album already appear on the Hot 100 this week – five of them in the top 25 – but the set’s full 37-track drop could add as many as 30 extra songs to the mix, some of them likely quite high.
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Could the new Wallen swarm really push “Lose Control” all the way off the chart? Well, it only would have to push it out of the top 25 – since the song has already spent over a year on the chart, Billboard‘s rules about recurrent entries on the Hot 100 mean that it would drop off the listing entirely if it dropped to No. 26 or lower. But since “Control” is still No. 7 this week, that would still take a mighty showing from Wallen’s latest – likely requiring about half the 37-track album to outperform it on the chart next week. A tall ask, and with the relatively steady radio and streaming support for “Lose Control,” it might not end up having too much of a Problem with Wallen after all.
Morgan Wallen, “Just in Case,” “What I Want” (with Tate McRae), “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Even if he doesn’t crowd Teddy Swims out of the Hot 100 top 25 next week, Wallen should launch his fair share of entries into the top 10 – including a couple that may be contending for No. 1. “Just in Case,” which debuted at No. 3 in April and sits at No. 11 this week, may be the frontrunner, as it has roosted at No. 2 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music’s real-time chart for most of the week following I’m the Problem’s release — and is also growing significantly in radio play, as Wallen’s latest single being promoted to country radio was up to 9.4 million in airplay audience for the first four days of this tracking week (May 16-19), according to Luminate, after debuting at No. 47 on the most recent Radio Songs listing.
It should receive some serious competition from albummate “What I Want,” however – Wallen’s duet with Tate McRae, marking the first time he’s sung with a female artist on an officially released track. While the brand-new collab is unsurprisingly slower-going on radio in its first week, it also is the lone song ranking above “Just in Case” on both Spotify and Apple Music this week. If it debuts in the Hot 100’s top two, it will mark the highest-ranking hit of Tate McRae’s career – with “Greedy” holding her previous high-water mark with its No. 3 peak in early 2024.
Also not to be counted out: the I’m the Problem title track, which is currently the highest-charting of Wallen’s eight Hot 100 entries, rating at No. 6 in its 15th week on the chart (after debuting at No. 2 back in February). The song also ranks in the top five on both the aforementioned DSP charts, while remaining Wallen’s top-performing song on radio – likely topping Country Airplay for a sixth week next frame, and holding in the top 15 on the all-format Radio Songs ranking.
Kendrick Lamar & SZA, “Luther” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG) & Alex Warren, “Ordinary” (Atlantic): The two songs that have been duking it out for No. 1 on the Hot 100 the past couple weeks – with “Luther” thus far reigning victorious – will likely find themselves on the undercard for the Hot 100 title fight next week following the waterfall of Wallen entries. However, as those I’m the Problem songs inevitably recede some in week two, Alex Warren and Kendrick Lamar & SZA could be back in the main event the week after. In the meantime, “Ordinary” should continue to close the all-important airplay gap, as it is up 21% in radio audience for the first four days of the tracking week (May 16-19) to 20.9 million, while “Luther” is down 3% to 35 million.
