The Contenders

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 7), the latest effort from crossover superstar Doja Cat leads a pack of new releases aiming to succeed Olivia Rodrigo and Rod Wave at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. 

Doja Cat, Scarlet (Kemosabe/RCA): In the rankings of the biggest pop stars right now without a No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 to their credit, Doja Cat may very well be atop the list. Her last album, 2021’s Planet Her, debuted at No. 2 on the chart (behind Tyler, the Creator’s Call Me if You Get Lost) but ultimately notched a stunning five singles into the Billboard Hot 100’s top 20 – an ‘80s- or ‘90s-style blockbuster, one that impacted the pop world for well over a calendar year. She didn’t get a Hot 100 No. 1 off that album, but she’s also got two of those for her career: most recently “Paint the Town Red,” the Dionne Warwick-sampling advance track from new set Scarlet, released last Friday (Sept. 22).

Huge pop track record, excellent-performing last album, smash hit lead single: Seems like it should be a recipe for an automatic No. 1 debut this time around, right? Well, maybe, but not definitely: While Doja has always performed well on a single-for-single basis, she’s never had the kind of whole-album-bomb streaming numbers that many artists on her commercial level tend to post in 2023 – trends that seem to be continuing with Scarlet, as most of the album’s tracks have already fallen off the big DSPs’ daily charts. And she doesn’t usually sell tremendous numbers in physical formats, with Scarlet not even being available yet in vinyl: just the standard album for sale on digital and CD, as well as a deluxe edition with two bonus cuts.  

So even as “Paint” continues to dominate on streaming and radio, Doja may have her work cut out for her climbing past a pair of prior No. 1s on the chart: Rod Wave’s Nostalgia and Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts, which hold the top two spots on this week’s Billboard 200 (dated Sept. 30) and are still littering the streaming charts with essentially their entire tracklists. One thing that might give her a valuable late-week boost: “Agora Hills,” released as the new single along with the whole set, has already caught on TikTok (and YouTube, with its eye-popping music video), and seems likely to be ready to supplant “Paint” in the Hot 100’s top tier once that single starts to slow down – if not earlier.  

Zach Bryan, Boys of Faith (Belting Bronco/Warner): Speaking of prior No. 1s on the Billboard 200 – the artist who reigned just before Wave and Rodrigo also is contending for the top spot again this week. Zach Bryan has followed up his best-selling self-titled album (which topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks in September) with the surprise-released new five-songs EP Boys of Faith, featuring guest appearances from fellow acclaimed alt-folk singer-songwriters Noah Kahan and Bon Iver. With no physical release and only a handful of tracks, Faith isn’t likely to put up Zach Bryan numbers – but given Bryan’s streaming prowess lately, and with Kahan collab “Sarah’s Place” off to a particularly dynamite start on DSPs, you can bet it’ll be heard from in the 200’s top tier next week.  

Lil Tecca, Tec (Galactic/Republic): New York rapper Lil Tecca hasn’t scored a major Hot 100 hit since his irresistible breakthrough smash “Ran$om” went all the way to the chart’s top five in 2019, but he’s continued to perform well on the Billboard 200, with both of his two 2020s studio albums (2020’s Virgo World and 2021’s We Love You Tecca 2) debuting at No. 10 on the chart. That might be about where third album Tec shows up, as the 16-track set is off to a strong start on streaming, with advance single “500lbs” looking on pace to potentially become his biggest hit since “Ran$om.” The set is also for sale on CD and digital, and in four deluxe boxed sets sold through Tecca’s webstore, each with a branded T-shirt and a copy of the CD. 

IN THE MIX 

Kylie Minogue, Tension (Darenote/BMG): Lead single “Padam Padam” gave Kylie Minogue her biggest pop culture moment in at least a decade when it became a cult favorite this spring and summer, and the pop legend is looking to capitalize on that momentum this week with the release of 16th studio album Tension. Physical sales would be the key to her first top 20 entry on the 200 since 2010’s Aphrodite, as Tension is available in six CD variants, five vinyl variants, four cassette tapes and three digital album iterations (including an artist webstore deluxe with five bonus tracks). 

Staind, Confessions of the Fallen (BMG): It’s been awhile for nu-metal veterans Staind, who we last got a full album from back in 2011, with their self-titled effort. In the years since then, frontman Aaron Lewis has become better known for his pivot to country, even scoring a top 20 Hot 100 hit with the conservative screed “Am I the Only One?” Still, Confessions lead single “Lowest in Me” proved they were still welcome on rock radio, becoming their fifth Mainstream Rock Airplay No. 1 this August – and you’d have to go back to their 1999 sophomore effort Dysfunction for their last album that failed to reach the top five of the Billboard 200.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 23), one of rap’s most self-contained stars aims for his third straight No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – though one of the summer’s biggest new releases still stands in his way.  

Rod Wave, Nostalgia (Alamo): Florida singer-rapper Rod Wave continues to quietly build his case as one of the most consistently successful artists in popular music. Without any major breakout Hot 100 hits – he’s reached the top 30 seven times to date, but still never the top 10 – Wave has nonetheless hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 with each of his five official sets so far, and topped the chart with his last two albums: 2021’s SoulFly and 2022’s Beautiful Mind.  

Two of those top 30 Billboard Hot 100 hits (the No. 16-peaking “Fight the Feeling” and the No. 26-debuting “Call Your Friends”) arrived in advance of his new LP, Nostalgia, which was released on Friday (Sept. 15). As has traditionally been the case with Wave’s albums, the 18-track Nostalgia is relatively short on big-name features – though he does get one major lift from guest rapper 21 Savage on “Turks & Caicos.”  

The album’s performance will rely solely on its digital performance, as it is not yet available for any kind of physical purchase. However, Wave has been regularly dominant on streaming since his breakthrough at the end of the 2010s, and Nostalgia appears to be no exception so far — five days after its release, the album still claims 15 of the top 18 spots on Apple Music’s real-time chart. It’ll need robust numbers to get by Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts in its second week, though: The 302,000 units that album debuts with on this week’s Billboard 200 was the year’s fourth-biggest total so far, and the set remains strong in streams and sales.  

Mitski, The Land Is Inhospitable and So Are We (Dead Oceans): Indie darling Mitski made a huge jump into the mainstream at the beginning of the decade, becoming a massive favorite on TikTok over the pandemic and cashing in on her newfound visibility with a top five Billboard 200 debut for her Laurel Hell album in early 2022. She looks to keep that momentum going with this month’s The Land Is Inhospitable and So Are We, which is available in four vinyl variants (as well as on cassette and CD), and which eschews the sparkling synth-pop of its predecessor’s singles for the dustier singer-songwriter balladry of some of its deeper cuts. It’s already paid off with one breakout hit: “My Love Mine All Mine” climbs to a new high of No. 50 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart today.  

Dan + Shay, Bigger Houses (Warner Bros. Nashville): After nearly breaking up following their tour in support of 2021’s Good Things, the hitmaking country duo of Dan Smyers and Shay Mooney make a big return this week with their Bigger Houses album. The set, released in five variants on vinyl and two on CD (with signed copies available in both formats), should sell well – but it might not be as big a performer on streaming as past sets, since none of the advance songs have really taken off there yet (“Save Me the Trouble” has been the highest Hot 100-charter so far, at a modest No. 84.). The duo has a streak to protect with Houses: Each of their four full-lengths to date have reached the Billboard 200’s top 10. 

IN THE MIX 

Diddy, The Love Album: Off the Grid (Love/Motown): Diddy’s long-awaited Love Album is his first solo release in 17 years, and his first major release of any kind since 2010’s cult classic Last Train to Paris set as part of Diddy – Dirty Money. The new album has no advance hits to support it, but it does have volume on its side: both with its length (23 tracks) and a robust guest list that includes such big-name guests as The Weeknd, 21 Savage, Justin Bieber, H.E.R., Jazmine Sullivan, Swae Lee, Mary J. Blige, Summer Walker and Babyface.  

Sleepy Hallow, Boy Meets World (Winners Circle/RCA): Two years after hitting the Billboard 200’s top 20 with debut album Still Sleep?, New York rapper Sleepy Hallow returns with sophomore set Boy Meets World. The set includes a handful of the one-offs he’s released over those two years (like 2022 Hot 100 hit “Die Young”), as well as new collabs with hitmakers Fivio Foreign and Doechii – the latter on “Anxiety,” which has already found some early success on TikTok.  

Thirty Seconds to Mars, It’s the End of the World But It’s a Beautiful Day (Concord): One of the biggest rock bands of the late ‘00s and early ‘10s, the Jared Leto-led 30STM scored their best Billboard 200 debut in 2018, with their America album. That set finally gets its follow-up this month with the more pop- and electronic-influenced It’s the End of the World But It’s a Beautiful Day, with 13 separate vinyl variants available to attract the kind of sales that powered America’s debut. Beautiful Day won’t have the advantage its predecessor did of being able to count concert ticket/album sale redemption offers towards its final tally, though, with such bundles being removed from BB200 calculations in July 2020.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 23), the biggest new artist of the early decade returns with her second full-length album – but will it be a more or less impressive bow than her first? 
Olivia Rodrigo, Guts (Geffen): At a time in the music industry when new pop stars have become significantly harder to develop and damn near impossible to simply manufacture, Olivia Rodrigo has stood out as the instant-phenomenon exception to nearly every rule. She debuted atop the Billboard Hot 100 with her first official single, “Drivers License,” in early 2021, and only grew in momentum from there – also scoring another No. 1 with follow-up single “Good 4 U,” and a Billboard 200-topping debut album with the acclaimed (and eventually Grammy-winning) Sour. 

On Friday, Rodrigo returned with Guts, her much-anticipated sophomore LP. The album was already led by two Hot 100 top 10 hits, including her third No. 1 with the unpredictable ballad “Vampire,” and this week also sees a third single being pushed in the frisky “Get Him Back!” — which Rodrigo not only released an eye-catching music video for on Tuesday, but also delivered its live debut on the MTV Video Music Awards.  

The album has dominated streaming services since its Friday release, with six of its 12 tracks still in the top 10 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and four in the daily iTunes Top 10 five days later. It’s also expected to sell well, with 13 vinyl variants available – including exclusives for her official store, Amazon, Target, indies and Walmart, and two boxed sets with a vinyl LP and a piece of branded merch inside the box – as well as four CD variants, including an exclusive for Target, a signed CD sold at indie retailers and two boxed sets with a CD and branded merch inside the box. 

It should all be enough to make the album the week’s top Billboard 200 debut, and very likely the No. 1 album – but will it be able to top Sour, which posted 295,000 equivalent album units in its first week? So far, its streaming numbers are very comparable to Rodrigo’s debut, and have held strong throughout the week – though with only 12 tracks and no deluxe edition yet to speak of, the volume will invariably be lower than some more juiced-up tracklists of recent blockbusters from the likes of Morgan Wallen and Travis Scott. It may come down to her physical sales numbers, and how well those maintain day-to-day, to see if Guts has the internal fortitude to rise above her 2021 LP.  

V, Layover (Big Hit): The latest BTS alum to contend on the Billboard 200 is the baritone V, who on Friday unleashed his debut EP Layover. Like essentially all BTS-related releases, the set should sell in large physical numbers, thanks to a wide variety of variants and packaging options – including 13 collectible CD variants, all with randomized branded merch elements contained inside, and exclusive variants sold at Target, Walmart, Barnes & Noble and via the Weverse store. The six-track effort was preceded by lead single “Love Me Again,” which became V’s second solo entry on the Hot 100, debuting at No. 96.  

Tyler Childers, Rustin’ in the Rain (Hickman Holler/RCA): The timing is certainly right for a Tyler Childers album: Not only because he just scored his first Hot 100 hit with the No. 43-debuting “In Your Love,” but because the mainstream presence for his sort of rootsy country and Americana has been majorly expanded by the recent crossover success of Zach Bryan and Oliver Anthony Music. Childers is also offering four vinyl variants and three boxed sets (with LP and branded merch) of the new seven-track set — which includes “Love,” as well as covers of the Kris Kristoffersen-penned country staple “Help Me Make It Through the Night” and contemporary singer-songwriter S.G. Goodman’s “Space and Time.”  

IN THE MIX 

Laufey, Bewitched (AWAL): Icelandic jazz-pop singer-songwriter Laufey, who appeared on her home country’s versions of both The Voice and America’s Got Talent as a teenager, scored a surprise TikTok hit earlier this year with the sweetly aching “From the Start,” which has racked up over 58 million on-demand U.S. streams since it came out in May. On Friday, she released her debut album, the 14-track Bewitched, which is for sale on CD, cassette and exclusive silver nugget vinyl on her webstore – as is the sheet music for the set, certainly something of a rarity for a 20-something artist in 2023.  

Olivia Rodrigo, Sour (Geffen): Don’t forget about Rodrigo’s debut, which has hardly become a stranger to the higher regions of the Billboard 200 since its May 2021 release. The album currently sits at No. 33 on the chart in its 120th week, and should be due for another sizeable jump in the week following its successor Guts’ debut: Billboard reported yesterday that Sour was up 21% in streams in the first four days of her sophomore album’s release.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 16), the last four singles to top the Billboard Hot 100 have all been led by country artists – and white guys – but both streaks may be coming to an end with the rise of a returning pop-rap star’s latest.  

Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): It feels almost quaint in 2023: A big pop release that makes a solid debut, and climbs from there. Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red” entered at a good-not-great No. 15 on the Hot 100 in August, but it has only grown since then, jumping into the top five last week and hitting a new peak of No. 3 this week. With the song still gaining on all three Hot 100 component charts – Streaming Songs (up 3-2 this week), Digital Song Sales (11-6) and Radio Songs (24-17) — it should be a threat to take the top spot on next week’s chart.  

If it does, it will be notable for reasons beyond becoming Doja Cat’s second career Hot 100-topper, following 2020’s “Say So” featuring Nicki Minaj. It would be the first non-country No. 1 on the chart since Jung Kook’s Latto-featuring “Seven” debuted atop the chart dated July 29, seven weeks earlier. In the time since, a record four consecutive country songs (defined as songs deemed eligible for Billboard’s Hot Country Songs ranking) have claimed the top spot: Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” Jason Aldean’s “Try That in a Small Town,” Oliver Anthony Music’s “Rich Men North of Richmond,” and this week’s new No. 1, Zach Bryan’s “I Remember Everything,” featuring Kacey Musgraves.  

A much longer streak would also be ended if “Paint the Town Red” hits No. 1: It’s now been 55 weeks since a rap song last ruled the Hot 100 (“Super Freaky Girl,” by Doja Cat’s “Say So” co-star Nicki Minaj), the longest such run since the turn of the century. While Doja’s rap bona fides have long been the subject of (often ridiculous) internet debate as she crosses further into the top 40 world, “Paint” has scaled Billboard’s Hot Rap Songs chart – currently sitting at No. 1 there for a second week – meaning the genre’s Hot 100 drought may soon be over.  

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Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything” (Belting Bronco/Warner): The No. 1 debut that few saw coming last week should not be due for a particularly huge drop off in its second week. Zach Bryan‘s “I Remember Everything,” featuring Kacey Musgraves, has been holding fairly strong on both streaming (still No. 1 on Apple Music’s daily charts and No. 2 on Spotify) and sales (in the top five on iTunes) — and without any major debuts or gainers (aside from Doja) coming from behind it, it should still be in contention for one of the Hot 100’s top few spots this week.  

The question for “Everything” will be how much radio embraces it. Bryan’s American Heartbreak Hot 100 top 10 hit “Something in the Orange” ultimately elbowed its way into the top 20 on Country Airplay, but Bryan’s stardom has mostly come independently of radio and the Nashville machine, and it’s not clear yet if “I Remember Everything” will prove an exception. So far, the song is nearing the Country Airplay chart, with 272,000 audience impressions at the format Sept. 1-4, according to Luminate, up from 175,000 in its entire first week.

Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): It’s probably an overstatement to say that you have to feel for Luke Combs – when he first decided to cover Tracy Chapman’s alt-folk classic “Fast Car,” he probably never expected to get anywhere near the top spot of the Hot 100 with it. At this point, though, the song has now spent eight weeks idling at No. 2, while seemingly every other male country singer-songwriter speeds just ahead of him – and it’s starting to look like it might not ever get there himself.

“Fast Car” does finally lead the Radio Songs chart this week – Combs’ first No. 1 on that listing – while still hanging in the top 10 of Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs. But “Car” seems to have stalled on all three component charts, so if Doja zooms by it this week, it might be tough for it to catch up again.  

IN THE MIX 

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Labor Day Weekend came and went without any final promotional efforts for Taylor Swift’s “Cruel Summer,” which remains at No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week, after reaching No. 3, but is nearing its peak at radio and might not be able to hold in streaming and sales to remain a true No. 1 contender for much longer. All that remains now is the potential boost from the already blockbuster-certified Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour movie – but with that film not due still for over a month, it’s likely that “Summer” will have cooled off too much by then anyway.  

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Nicki Minaj, “Last Time I Saw You” (Young Money/Republic): Speaking of Minaj: It’s likely that she will have the week’s best Hot 100 bow with her much-hyped new single “Last Time I Saw You.” The song got off to a typically strong start in sales and streaming upon its Friday (Sept. 1) debut, but has already faded pretty quickly on the daily Spotify and Apple charts. Given the song’s top 40-friendly crossover sound, though, it might not be too long before radio starts picking up the slack there.

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 2), Travis Scott goes for his fourth week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart with his massive Utopia, while Hozier looks to earn his second consecutive debut atop the chart with new effort Unreal Unearth.  

Travis Scott, Utopia (Catcus Jack/Epic): It’s been three weeks, and Travis Scott is still not only ruling the Billboard 200 with his Utopia, the album posted a whopping 185,000 units in its latest frame – with a mighty 99,000 in sales, an very high number for an album in its third week out, and a 169% gain from the week before. The sales boost probably comes from his webstore (limited time) discount on the double-LP set from $50 to $5, resulting in 93,000 in vinyl sales last week – the biggest vinyl sales performance for a hip-hop or R&B album since Luminate began tracking sales in 1991.  

Scott’s sales are expected to stay strong – likely helped by another discount code, released and circulated among fans in time to impact this chart week — along with its streaming numbers, with four songs from the album still in the top 25 of Billboard’s Streaming Songs chart. The combination of sales and streams should make it tough to depose this week, without a new contender expected to put up particularly big numbers in both categories, and Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – still No. 2 on the chart this week, after 15 weeks at No. 1 – no longer posting units in the six digits.  

Hozier, Unreal Unearth (Rubyworks/Island/Columbia): Despite not scoring a major crossover hit since his No. 2-peaking Billboard Hot 100 smash “Take Me to Church” in 2014 – and only releasing one new album during the rest of the 2010s — Irish singer-songwriter Hozier has maintained both a devoted following and a major chart impact. His sophomore album, 2019’s Wasteland, Baby!, debuted atop the Billboard 200, while his 2023 single “Eat Your Young” debuted at No. 67 on the Hot 100.  

That song is on Hozier’s third album, Unreal Unearth, released on Aug. 18, and available on both CD and vinyl (including exclusive signed editions of both, already sold out on his webstore). The album is Hozier’s biggest-sounding to date, and will be supported by an upcoming U.S. tour that sees him playing some of the largest venues of his career. However, the kind of ticket bundles that helped power Wasteland to No. 1 won’t count towards the totals for Unearth, since Billboard changed its bundling rules in July 2020 – making it that much tougher to catch Utopia.  

J-Hope, Jack in the Box (Big Hit): The 10-track debut from BTS alum J-Hope has already appeared in the top 20 on the Billboard 200, entering at No. 17 in July 2022. But Jack in the Box is due to re-enter the chart next week – likely at a higher peak – thanks to the CD release of its deluxe HOPE Edition. The reissue, which makes for the first time the set will be released on CD, contains five bonus tracks (including a pair of instrumental versions of Jack tracks and a trio of live versions from J-Hope’s 2022 Lollapalooza set), as well as a photo and lyric book, sticker packs and more collectible goodies.  

IN THE MIX 

Jihyo, Zone (JYP/Republic): J-Hope isn’t the only member of a massive K-pop group likely to impact the Billboard 200 this week: Jihyo, of star nonet TWICE, released her solo debut set on Friday with the seven-track EP Zone. While the EP is not expected to score major streaming numbers, it should sell well – helped by the sale of three versions of the mini-album (“Z,” “Y” and “O”) on JYP’s webstore, dispatched at random per each order, and each containing different collectible elements (like lyric books, posters and bookmarks).  

Russ, Santiago (Diemon/Columbia): After breaking through in the late ‘10s with hits like “What They Want” and “Losin Control,” Russ has kept up a steady chart presence, hitting the Billboard 200’s top five with both 2018’s Zoo and 2020’s Shake the Snow Globe. The rapper/singer looks to make it three in a row next week with latest album Santiago – though the set features no Hot 100 hits or star features, with its only guest appearances coming from cult Bay Area rapper Rexx Life Raj and acclaimed singer-songwriter Bibi Bourelly.  

Quavo, Rocket Power (Capitol/Motown/Quality Control): The Migos rapper’s first album since the death of groupmate (and nephew) Takeoff may not sell as well as this week’s other big releases, since a physical release is not yet available. But it should put up pretty respectable streaming numbers for its 18 tracks, including Hot 100 hit “Turn Your Clic Up” (featuring Future), multiple cuts featuring the late Takeoff, and several more paying tribute to the hip-hop great.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated August 26), Wallen’s “Last Night” is just three more weeks at No. 1 from tying the Billboard Hot 100’s all-time record – but his position is growing more precarious, thanks to growing hits from Luke Combs and Taylor Swift, and a runaway viral hit from Oliver Anthony Music.  

Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen secured his 16th week at No. 1 this week (chart dated Aug. 19) with “Last Night,” moving the song into a three-way tie with Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” for the second-longest reign atop the Hot 100 in chart history, and the longest for any unaccompanied artist. From there, it’s just three weeks away from matching “Old Town Road” (by Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus; 19 weeks in 2019) for the all-time mark.  

However, “Last Night” continues to slip in its footing, as the song again falls in all three chart factors this week – down 11% to 59.6 million radio airplay audience impressions, down 2% to 26.3 million streams and down 22% to 5,000 downloads in the Aug. 4-10 tracking week, according to Luminate. Its numbers are still impressive – and it even rebounds to No. 1 on Streaming Songs this week, with Travis Scott’s Utopia song entries receding in their second frame – but it’s no longer totally out of reach for the songs beneath it.  

Oliver Anthony Music, “Rich Men North of Richmond” (DistroKid): Two weeks ago, you might not have heard of West Virginia singer-songwriter Oliver Anthony, but chances are pretty good he’s made your radar since, as his “Rich Men North of Richmond” has taken off with a velocity rarely seen for new artists. After going viral on social media and earning endorsements from conservative-leaning public figures such as Matt Walsh, Laura Ingraham and John Rich – as well as backlash from prominent critics who view its pro-working class but anti-welfare message as hypocritical and problematic – the song has improbably launched itself into the crowded race for the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot.  

“Rich Men,” which is officially credited to Oliver Anthony Music, jumped to the top of the iTunes chart on Friday, and since officially arriving on streaming services over the weekend, has risen to the top three on both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily tallies. Though its radio play is minimal, if its sales and streams totals stay that robust, Anthony’s breakout hit will certainly be a contender to topple “Last Night” at No. 1 – and as debate over the song and its creator continues rising to a fever pitch, it’s unlikely to fall off anytime too soon.  

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): A rising tide lifts all boats, and the good ship “Cruel Summer” has benefited over and over again from spikes of interest in Taylor Swift the past few months. Most recently, it’s been the (temporary) end of her Eras Tour – which wrapped up the final U.S. dates of this current leg in Los Angeles last Wednesday (Aug. 9) — and the concurrent announcement of her upcoming 1989 (Taylor’s Version) that have once again sent Swifties scurrying to streaming services. 

“Cruel Summer” doesn’t come from 1989 – rather, from Lover, two albums later, in 2019 – but it doesn’t seem to matter much: Swift’s streams are up across her whole catalog, and “Summer” in particular has been rising, topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the first time on Monday (Aug. 14). Fans also perhaps seem to sense that the song is within reach of No. 1, as sales of “Summer” rose 85% last week to 7,000.

With airplay also still growing – the song climbs 5-3 on Radio Songs this week – “Summer” is currently performing at its peak so far. Whether it will be enough to both pass a fading “Last Night” and fend off a surging “Rich Men North of Richmond” remains to be seen.  

Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): Prior to the debut of “Rich Men,” Combs’ Tracy Chapman cover seemed to have the inside track for the No. 1 spot, as the song right below “Last Night” on the Hot 100 since the beginning of July. Perhaps sensing that the top spot was now within its grasp, Combs’ team released the official live version of “Fast Car” — previously available only as a YouTube video – to all streaming services on Friday (Aug. 11). 

Will it still have a chance to reach No. 1 next week? Potentially, but its numbers have also been trending in the wrong direction, with both its streams and sales declining last week – though its airplay continues to rise, with the song hitting the Pop Airplay top 10 for the first time. It will need another big jump in airplay, as well as a rebound in streams and possibly sales, to have a real chance of becoming Combs’ first No. 1 next week.  

IN THE MIX 

Olivia Rodrigo, “Bad Idea Right?” (Geffen/Interscope): In a less-packed week, we might be talking about the second single from Olivia Rodrigo’s upcoming album Guts – which debuted on Friday — as more of a contender for the top spot, as the song ranked No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for most of the week. But “Bad Idea Right?” has already started to fade a little on streaming, hasn’t yet been officially promoted to radio and isn’t selling as well as predecessor (and radio focus track) “Vampire” — without the CD release that single had – so it will likely have to settle for being the Hot 100’s second-highest debut this week.  

Barbie: The Album (Mattel/Water Tower/Atlantic): As the phenomenon that is Barbie continues to envelop the globe, it has also swept through the Hot 100, with three of its singles occupying spots in this week’s top 15: Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night” (No. 7), Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s Aqua-featuring “Barbie World” (No. 8) and Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” (No. 14). None of them are necessarily on pace to mount a true charge for the top, as the set’s streaming growth has finally stalled in its fourth week, but airplay may still give the songs an extra boost – particularly “Barbie World,” which zooms 33-21 on this week’s Radio Songs chart. 

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Aug. 19), Morgan Wallen is four weeks from making Billboard Hot 100 history – but may not get there, if Luke Combs, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo or other rising hitmakers have anything to say about it.  

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Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen’s first Hot 100 No. 1 – and a rare country No. 1 with no co-lead artists or obvious pop crossover attempt (though it has still become a top five hit at pop and adult radio) – has slowly but surely elbowed its way into the Billboard record books. With its 15th week at No. 1 (on the Hot 100 dated Aug. 12), “Last Night” ties Harry Styles’ “As It Was” (2022) for both the longest-leading No. 1 of the 2020s, and the longest in the Hot 100’s now-65-year history from an unaccompanied artist.  

Next in its sights: 16 weeks and a tie for the second-longest run atop the Hot 100, alongside Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” (1995-96) and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” (2017). After that, only one song stands between it and all-time Hot 100 No. 1 supremacy: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which held on top for a record-breaking 19 weeks in 2019.  

Unlike “Old Town Road,” which Lil Nas X worked tirelessly to push to No. 1 and keep there – with a succession of music videos, remixes, high-profile live performances and social media memes – Wallen has leaned almost all the way back for “Last Night,” doing remarkably little public promotion outside of the One Night at a Time World Tour that he’s been on since March. Rather, its reign has been more reminiscent of Styles’ 2022 run at No. 1, where the song’s performance simply held across all categories (streams, sales and radio airplay) both strong enough and long enough to essentially serve as the default Hot 100-topper anytime there wasn’t a major new release.  

But how long and how strong is it still holding after 15 weeks at No. 1 (and 27 weeks total on the chart)? There are finally real signs of slippage, as the song falls on each of the Streaming Songs (from No. 1 to No. 3), Digital Song Sales (6-7) and Radio Songs (2-4) charts this week. The door is creaking open, but another song will still have to charge through – and as of this week, “Last Night” remains the only hit in the top 10 of all three charts.  

Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): The most immediate threat to “Last Night” would have to be the song that’s landed exactly one spot below it on the Hot 100 every week since July 1. Luke Combs‘ “Fast Car” is actually leading “Last Night” on both Digital Song Sales (steady at No. 4 this week) and Radio Songs (climbing 3-2), though it still trails it significantly on Streaming Songs (No. 11, buried under an avalanche of Travis Scott debuts). 

The big question for “Fast Car” is if it can gain enough on “Last Night” on radio – the only metric where either song is still growing – to make up for its streaming shortfall. While it’s already had a five-week run at No. 1 on Country Airplay, finally replaced on top this week by Jelly Roll’s “Need a Favor,” it still has room to grow on top 40 radio, with the song inching up 13-12 on the Pop Airplay listing this week; it also hits No. 1 on Adult Pop Airplay, while pushing 8-7 on Adult Contemporary. If it continues to grow steadily there, while staying level on streaming, it may close the gap enough with “Last Night” in the next couple of weeks. 

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Swift already came close to unseating Wallen earlier this summer, when her Midnights single “Karma” shot to No. 2 (largely thanks to a boost from a new Ice Spice-featuring remix), but could not quite depose “Last Night.” Now she should have another shot – not with a new song, but an older one: “Cruel Summer,” a former deep cut from her 2019 album Lover, which has ridden a wave of fan fervor and seasonal momentum (as well as official label promotion) to become a hit, and reaches a new peak of No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week.  

The story with “Cruel Summer” is similar to that of “Fast Car”: “Last Night” has a sizable edge on streaming (“Summer” ranks just No. 19 on Streaming Songs this week), but is starting to fade on radio while “Summer” surges. And “Summer” is really starting to swelter on the airwaves: It became Swift’s record-setting 12th No. 1 on Pop Airplay last week, and breaks the top five on Radio Songs this week in just its seventh frame on the chart. If its velocity keeps up, it may pass both Combs’ and Wallen’s hits in due time, and could be in the hunt for No. 1 shortly after.  

An interesting wrinkle in this three-way race: None of these songs have proper music videos or remixes yet on streaming services. This is essentially par for the course for Wallen (who has not historically leaned on remixes or made a music video since last summer’s “You Proof”), and outside of a recently released live clip, Combs has taken a mostly hands-off approach to promoting his “Fast Car” cover, which he did not originally intend to be a single. Swift has extensive recent history of both official videos and remixes, though – albeit only for Midnights singles, so there’s no precedent for her to pull those levers for an older song. If she does so, though, it could give “Summer” the extra heat it needs to get over the top.  

IN THE MIX 

Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): Morgan Wallen may have the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100 this week, but otherwise the chart belongs to Travis Scott: All 19 tracks from his July album Utopia debut this week, led by the Drake-featuring “Meltdown” (No. 3) and the Playboi Carti-featuring “FE!N,” while “K-POP,” with Bad Bunny and The Weeknd, is already a rising radio hit. Those tracks will likely lose some ground in streaming next week, but if one of them (or any of the other 17) begins to catch some viral heat, Scott certainly has the streaming juice to become a factor: He’s topped the Hot 100 four times already, including with previous album Astroworld’s breakout single “Sicko Mode.”  

Gunna, “fukumean” (YSL/300): While 2023 has been short on breakout hip-hop hits, “fukumean” has been a notable exception since its July release, as part of Gunna’s A Gift & A Curse album. The TikTok-boosted smash has gotten as high as No. 4 on the Hot 100 – it slips to No. 7 this week – but it continues to perform exceptionally on streaming, and is starting to find its footing on radio, surging 28-20 on R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay. If top 40 – which has never been particularly kind to Gunna – decides to give the song (and its radio-unfriendly hook, at least in unedited form) a real chance, he could force his way into the top three before long.  

Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” and “Bad Idea Right” (Geffen): Rodrigo’s lead single from her much-anticipated upcoming sophomore album Guts, “Vampire” actually did already debut at No. 1, but slid in subsequent weeks as first-week streams and (especially) sales declined. The song is still hanging around the lower reaches of the top 10, though– with airplay rapidly picking up (13-11 on Radio Songs this week) – and it may soon be joined in the top tier by new single “Bad Idea Right,” which is due this Friday, and very likely to extend her streak of top 10 Hot 100 debuts.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated August 5), Travis Scott could score the biggest debut for a rap album in 2023 so far with his first album in five years.  
Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): There must have been a little anxiety in the Travis Scott camp as he geared up for July’s Utopia release. Not only was it Scott’s first album since the blockbuster Astroworld five years earlier, but it was his first following the catastrophic stage rush at his 2021 Astroworld Fest, which left 10 dead and cast a huge shadow over Scott’s career. Subsequent releases (like the 2022 Pharrell collab “Down in Atlanta”) failed to make much chart impact, and there seemed to at least be a chance that a similar fate would befall Utopia. 

From its early returns on streaming, however, it seems like Scott & co. needn’t have worried. Billboard reported yesterday that the album posted a massive 266.21 million official on-demand U.S. streams in its first five days of release. That puts it just a few million short of the full-first-week total for Taylor Swift’s Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (269.33 million), which currently stands as the second-biggest streaming week of 2023 so far, and about 83 million short of Astroworld’s first-week tally (349.43 million) with two days still unaccounted for.  

In addition to its robust streaming debut, the album should also sell well in its physical release, thanks largely to a wide variety of options. There are 15 deluxe boxed sets for the album, each containing a different piece of clothing with either a copy of the CD or vinyl LP – and a different cover with each box for the CD or vinyl LP contained inside. There are also two Fan Pack offers — where the customer could buy a piece of branded clothing and a copy of the physical album together for a discounted price, or choose to buy the items separately if they wanted. And of course, there’s the stand–alone physical album – available in five different CDs or five different vinyl LPs (the same physical albums contained in the boxed sets noted above) — and a digital edition, discounted to $4.99 in Scott’s webstore. (Physical copies of the album were only for sale through the webstore, as the set is currently unavailable at any other retailers.)

It should all add up to one of the biggest debuts for any album in 2023 – and almost certainly the highest first-week number for an R&B/hip-hop album this year. (The current top tally is held by Lil Uzi Vert’s Pink Tape, which debuted with 167,000 equivalent album units, including 210.39 million in streaming.)  

Post Malone, Austin (Mercury/Republic): Three or four years ago, a first-week race between Travis Scott and Post Malone on the Billboard 200 would have been among the most exciting (and likely the closest) that pop music could’ve offered, as two of the most consistently successful recording artists of the late ‘10s. But while the intervening years may not have dampened Scott’s first-week album numbers much, they’ve had a bigger impact on Post Malone’s performance – his dour 2022 album Twelve Carat Toothache only posted about a quarter of the first-week units as 2019’s Hollywood’s Bleeding, and was relegated to a No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200. 

That chart position may again be the best-case scenario for 2023’s Austin, Post Malone’s return to more upbeat pop music, albeit more guitar-based than the trap beats he made his stardom rapping over. From the early returns, the set is streaming well, but nowhere near as well as Utopia – on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for the Friday when both albums debuted (July 28), every track from Austin appeared on the top 200, but the album’s highest-finishing song still placed lower than the worst-performing Utopia cut.  

Nonetheless, the album should still stream and sell well – significantly better than any non-Scott new release this week. The latter portion will be helped by two Fan Pack offers (similar to the ones Scott offers for Utopia), as well as a range of additional physical releases that includes three vinyl variants and a cassette option. (The set was also reissued mid-week in a deluxe edition, including the new bonus track “Joy.”)