State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 22), one of the biggest rock bands of all-time hopes to score their seventh No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 – but it still has to get through today’s top country artist to do so.
Metallica, 72 Seasons (Blackened): Metallica’s first original album in seven years arrives with no shortage of hype or promotion. The band released four songs in advance of the 12-track set’s April 14 release (including the Mainstream Rock Airplay-topping lead single “Lux Eterna”), held a four-night residency on Jimmy Kimmel Live! during its release week, and even launched a Metallica Logo Generator website last Thursday, which allowed fans to make versions of the cover titled after themselves to share on social media.
And of course, as one of the best-selling bands in rock history, Metallica has no shortage of physical options available for 72 Seasons. There are six vinyl variants for purchase, including standard black, an midnight violet-colored indie store exclusive, a red smoke-colored Target exclusive, a yellow and black swirl-colored Walmart exclusive, and both a smoky black-colored yellow and a black splatter-colored fan club exclusive. There are also two cassette options: a widely available transparent yellow variant, and a smoky black-colored Spotify exclusive.
Will it all be enough to unseat Morgan Wallen’s reigning five-week No. 1, One Thing at a Time – which earned 167,000 equivalent album units in its sixth week atop the chart? It may be close: Metallica should have a clear sales advantage, but without a major streaming hit on the set, it will of course be lagging behind Wallen’s juggernaut in that area (which also has 36 tracks to stream, rather than 72 Seasons‘ 12). The metal gods do have history on their side – their last six official studio albums have all topped the Billboard 200, dating back to their 1991 self-titled blockbuster.
IN THE MIX
Yung Bleu, Love Scars II (Moon Boy University / EMPIRE): Yung Bleu broke out at the beginning of the 2020s as one of the most promising rising singer-rappers, thanks to the Drake-assisted hit “You’re Mines Still” from his successful Love Scars: The 5 Stages of Emotions EP. Three years and a couple studio albums later, he’s back with that mini-set’s sequel – this time a 15-track effort with features from Chris Brown, Ty Dolla $ign and Tink, as well as an Acoustic Deluxe edition featuring four unplugged bonus cuts.
Waterparks, Intellectual Property (Fueled by Ramen): They’ve never had conventional hit singles on radio or streaming, but pop/rock trio Waterparks have been one of the more consistently performing rock acts of the past decade, notching three consecutive albums in the Billboard 200’s top half. This month’s Intellectual Property looks to make it four for four, with four different vinyl variants, four different CD releases and even a pair of cassette options looking to help its cause.
Ice Spice, Like..? (10K Projects/Capitol): Rap phenomenon Ice Spice’s debut EP has been a fixture on the Billboard 200 since debuting at No. 7 in early February, ranking at No. 187 on this week’s chart (dated April 22). The six-track set should make a sizable jump this week, however, following the Nicki Minaj-assisted remix to Like..?’s “Princess Diana,” which has been one of the best-selling and best-streaming new songs since its Friday release — metrics that will count towards the EP’s totals.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 22), NF remains the biggest rapper you don’t hear on radio or RapCaviar, while an ‘00s nu-metal band plans a second Meteora strike on the Billboard 200.
NF, Hope (NF Real Music/Caroline): He hasn’t had a major crossover hit since 2017’s smash “Let You Down” peaked at No. 12 on the Billboard Hot 100, but NF remains one of the world’s biggest rappers with a cult following that remains just outside of mainstream view. His last album, 2019’s The Search, snuck past Chance the Rapper’s more hyped The Big Day for the Billboard 200’s top spot (with a six-figure first week), and the title track and advance single from follow-up album Hope debuted at No. 49 on the Hot 100 in March.
Aiding Hope’s hopes to follow its predecessor to No. 1: big sales numbers, boosted by a variety of physical variants. There’s a signed CD in his online store (just $5!), a standard Target-exclusive CD with a poster packaged inside, four deluxe CD/merch box sets (with a T-shirt, hat, long sleeve T or a hoodie and a CD housed in a box, respectively) and both a white vinyl LP and a standard black version. If he cracks six figures again, NF might be in the same ballpark as Morgan Wallen’s declining One Thing at a Time — but the 167,000 units that album moved in its fifth week at No. 1 is still a higher single-week number than any NF album has posted yet.
Linkin Park, Meteora (Warner/Machine Shop): Meteora was one of the biggest albums of 2003, debuting at No. 1 with over 800,000 in first-week sales, spawning massive hit singles like “Numb” and “Faint” and finishing as the No. 6 album of the Year-End Billboard 200. Next week, the album’s 20th anniversary reissue may drive it to its highest position on the chart since its release year.
The set has already garnered considerable attention for the advance release of “Lost,” a bonus track that the group recorded for Meteora with late Linkin Park lead singer Chester Bennington, whose No. 38 debut on the Hot 100 made it the group’s biggest chart hit in a decade. It’s one of several previously unreleased tracks found on the reissue, which is available in a deluxe three-CD edition, a four-LP vinyl box set, or a five-LP / four-CD super deluxe box set, and should help Meteora make a more explosive chart impact than most new albums.
Daniel Caesar, Never Enough (Republic): Acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter Daniel Caesar has yet to hit the Billboard 200’s top 10, but he’s getting closer: No. 25 with 2017 debut Freudian, then No. 17 with 2019’s Case Study 01. This year’s long-anticipated third album Never Enough has a chance to get him in that range, though it’s lacking any chart hits near the level of his breakout late-’10s hits “Get You” or “Best Part,” and certainly none in the same stratosphere as his appearance on Justin Bieber’s 2021 Hot 100-topper “Peaches.” Caesar does have a climbing Adult R&B Airplay hit in “Let Me Go” (No. 20 this week), as well as three different box sets exclusive to his web store, three different-colored vinyl variants and both standard and signed CDs available for purchase.
In the Mix
Ellie Goulding, Higher Than Heaven (Polydor): One of the U.K.’s most reliable hitmakers of the early ‘10s is back, with what she calls, in a very un-2023 way, her “least-personal” to date. “We didn’t want to write serious songs,” Goulding has said, “we wanted to write about silly things and dancing.” The album’s approach has been well-received critically, but has yet to generate the kind hits either side of the Atlantic that she enjoyed a decade ago.
Rae Sremmurd, Sremm 4 Life (Ear Drummer/Interscope): Speaking of Goulding: Her most recent top 40 Hot 100 hit was scored alongside Swae Lee, who was also a chart fixture of the late ‘10s — both solo and with brother Slim Jxmmi, as hip-hop duo Rae Sremmurd. The Brothers Rae have since fallen somewhat out of commercial favor, but they’re hoping a return to their Sremm album series (responsible for three straight top 10 albums on the Billboard 200 from 2015-18) will bring them back to the limelight. They get additional assistance on Sremm 4 from featured stars Future and Young Thug, as well as production from longtime gold-spinner Mike Will Made-It.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 8), new albums from a wide variety of big names could make for the most debut-crowded top 10 on the Billboard 200 yet in 2023.
Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (Polydor/Interscope): Last year’s Blue Bannisters was Lana Del Rey’s first major label album to miss the Billboard 200 top five, but she seems set to return there with the new Ocean Blvd. The album has received some of the strongest reviews of Del Rey’s career, while seven-minute advance single “A&W” is her first song to reach the Hot Rock & Alternative Songs top 10 since her Weeknd-featuring “Lust for Life” in 2017.
Also helping Ocean Blvd’s numbers: well over a dozen physical variants, including five different-colored options on both vinyl and cassette, and four CD deluxe box sets exclusive to her webstore. (Plus, a special shoutout on the year’s hottest pop tour never hurts.) All of that could create a tunnel from Ocean Blvd to the top of the charts, but it will have to contend with Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time in its fourth week; that album has still been earning over 200,000 equivalent album units a week, and Del Rey has yet to post a single-week number higher than 182,000 (for Ultraviolence in 2014).
Jimin, Face (BigHit/Geffen): Another major contender this week, and the latest BTS alum poised for a major Billboard 200 impact — following J-Hope’s No. 17-debuting Jack in the Box last July and RM’s No. 3-peaking Indigo in December — is Jimin, who should be set for a big debut for his debut album Face. The set has already generated one Hot 100 hit in this week’s No. 30-debuting “Set Me Free Pt. 2,” and could score an even bigger one next week with the entrance of the best-selling “Like Crazy.” Though its six-track length may hurt its streaming totals, Face has the advantage of a simultaneous digital and physical release — where Jack in the Box and Indigo both debuted as digital-only releases — with five different collectible CD variants available (each containing a standard set of items plus randomized photo cards and postcards).
Luke Combs, Gettin’ Old (Columbia/River House): Coming just nine months after last year’s No. 2-peaking Growin’ Up, sibling set Gettin’ Old may return country superstar Luke Combs to the Billboard 200’s top five. Lead single “Love You Anyway” debuted in the Hot 100’s top 15 in February — with advance cuts “Growin’ Up and Gettin’ Old” and “Joe” also reaching the chart — and its studio version of Combs’ live-staple cover of Tracy Chapman’s late ‘80s alt-folk classic “Fast Car” should follow them onto the chart next week. The set is available in CD, cassette and record, with colored-vinyl exclusives for Amazon and Walmart.
In the Mix
Depeche Mode, Memento Mori (Columbia/Mute): Rock and Roll Hall of Famers Depeche Mode look to extend their streak of eight consecutive top 10 studio albums on the Billboard 200 with this month’s Memento Mori, their first album since the May death of founding member Andy Fletcher. The album, supported by the group’s first world tour in a half decade, was met with critical acclaim, and spawned their first top 15 hit on the Alternative Airplay chart since 2009 with lead single “Ghosts Again.”
Fall Out Boy, So Much for Stardust (Fueled by Ramen/DCD2): Fall Out Boy’s first album since 2018’s Billboard 200-topping Mania features more of a return to the emo heroes’ guitar-driven sound, albeit with more of a disco influence in tracks like third single “Hold Me Like a Grudge.” Lead cut “Love From the Other Side” became the group’s first-ever top five hit on the Rock & Alternative Airplay chart when it reached No. 2 earlier this month.
Pink Floyd, The Dark Side of the Moon (Harvest/Capitol): One of the biggest albums in rock history, Pink Floyd’s 1973 prog rock opus Dark Side of the Moon spends its 976th week on the Billboard 200 this week, ranking at No. 172. It should rank a lot higher next week following its 50th anniversary reissue, with a CD and vinyl box set that includes a newly remastered version of the classic album, a 76-page music book, surround sound and Dolby Atmos mixes, and a standalone LP of the group’s 1974 performance of the album at Wembley Arena.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 1), Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time juggernaut faces competition from a new U2 album of old U2 songs, as well as a rising star from the Latin world and a pop icon coming to a stadium near you.
U2, Songs of Surrender (Island/Interscope). The members of U2 are no strangers to the top of the Billboard 200, having reached No. 1 eight times in their 43-year recording history, most recently in 2017 with the debut of Songs of Experience. Many of the songs from those albums can be found on Songs of Surrender — a collection of reinvented re-recordings spanning the band’s entire career.
Released on St. Patrick’s Day (March. 17), the collection is also available in 16-track standard, 20-track deluxe and 40-track super deluxe editions (with the later divided into four 10-track discs each named after a band member). Sales will also be helped by a dozen vinyl variants of the album, including exclusives for Target, Amazon and independent retailers — and even a Boston Celtics Limited Edition vinyl, with team-inspired packaging containing an exclusive poster.
Eladio Carrión, 3men2 Kbrn (Rimas). An international swimmer turned social media influencer turned Latin trap hitmaker, Eladio Carrión has become one of this decade’s breakout stars from Rimas Entertainment, home to global superstar Bad Bunny. If his name isn’t yet familiar to you, some of the A-list features on his latest album 3men2 Kbrn will be – they include 50 Cent, Future, Lil Wayne, and of course El Conejo Malo himself, who appears on the set’s lead single “Coco Chanel.”
Taylor Swift, Lover (Republic). As you may have heard, Taylor Swift recently launched her first U.S. tour in six years – and It’s not just the more than 100,000 fans in attendance at the first two dates in Glendale, Ariz. over the weekend who are psyched to see her, Swift’s sales and streams have spiked across her catalog, but the album poised to benefit most on the Billboard 200 is her 2019 set Lover. It’s appropriate, given how it’s the Swift album fans have waited the longest to see on tour, as she was forced to cancel immediate support plans during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
IN THE MIX
EST Gee, Mad (CMG/Interscope). Louisville rapper EST Gee has long seemed to be on the verge of a mainstream breakthrough, in the wake of high-profile early-decade guest appearances on Billboard Hot 100 hits like Lil Baby’s “Real as It Gets” and Jack Harlow’s “Backstage Passes.” He’s reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 three times already, most recently with official debut LP I Never Felt Nun in Sept. 2022, and looks to go for four with last Friday’s Mad mixtape – though outside of southern rap stalwart Boosie Badazz, the set is light on big-name guests.
100 Gecs, 10,000 Gecs (Dog Show/Atlantic): The hyperpop paragons lean more into thick guitar riffs while maintaining their absurdist sense of humor on second album 10,000 Gecs, their first since making the jump to Atlantic. The critically acclaimed set — supported by their first Alternative Airplay-charting hit single, “Hollywood Baby” — is likely to give the duo its highest-charting entry yet on the Billboard 200, following the No. 92 peak of its debut album, appropriately titled 1,000 Gecs.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 25), a longtime stateside household name and a growing global force will compete against Morgan Wallen’s blockbuster in its second week.
Miley Cyrus, Endless Summer Vacation (Columbia): You might expect Miley Cyrus’ new album to debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. Cyrus has been a household name for a decade and a half, and she’s coming off her biggest Billboard Hot 100 hit with the six-week No. 1 “Flowers” — and her new album has largely been met with critical acclaim and positive fan response since its Friday release.
Despite her continued stardom, however, Cyrus has not scored a No. 1 album since 2013’s Bangerz, with her most recent effort (2021’s Plastic Hearts) debuting at No. 2 with 60,000 equivalent album units. A number anywhere near that range would probably not be enough to dethrone Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time, which debuted at No. 1 with 501,000 units on last week’s Billboard 200 (dated March 18). Even if One Thing posts only 40% of that in its second week, that would still be over three times Plastic Hearts’ first-week tally.
Vacation is expected to do better than Hearts, though – helped not only by the continued success of “Flowers” (which holds at No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week) and strong early returns for follow-up single “River,” but also by a variety of physical releases. That includes four vinyl variants (including one exclusive to Target, and two exclusive to her web store) and two deluxe box sets exclusive to her web store — one with a puzzle and a CD, the other with a beach towel and a CD.
TWICE, Ready to Be (JYP/Republic): Though they might not have name recognition as wide as Miley Cyrus in the United States, Korean girl group TWICE might be just as big a threat to Wallen’s place at the top of the Billboard 200 this week. TWICE have reached the chart’s No. 3 spot, well, twice: with 2021 LP Formula of Love: O+T=
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 18), Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time crashes the Billboard 200 like an asteroid, with its impact likely to be felt for many weeks to come.
Morgan Wallen, One Thing at a Time (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): When Morgan Wallen announced the release date of his new album in late January, every artist with an album scheduled for March probably screamed at their phone. Not only is Wallen’s previous album — the 30-track Dangerous: The Double Album – still sitting in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 a full two years after its 2021 release, but this album was going to be even longer: a whopping 36 tracks, six of which ranked on the Billboard Hot 100 the week of One Thing’s March 3 release.
Unsurprisingly, the album’s streams have been eye-popping. Billboard reported on Wednesday that the set’s collected tracks had scored 315 million official on-demand U.S. streams in its first four days (March 3-6) of release – already the biggest week for any 2023 album, the biggest week for any country album (passing Taylor Swift’s Red (Taylor’s Version)’s debut week in 2021), and a significantly bigger week than Dangerous achieved in its full first week (240 million). Perhaps more impressively, despite not yet being available on vinyl, the set has already sold well: 90,000 copies in its first three days, also more than the 74,000 total Dangerous sold in its debut week (with vinyl available).
As of Tuesday, the album was up to over 350,000 equivalent album units – again, both the best of any 2023 album and better than Dangerous’ full debut (265,000). That means it’s already eclipsed the 318,000 units of the first week of SZA’s 23-track SOS in December, and is not far away from the 404,000 of Drake & 21 Savage’s 16-track Her Loss from that set’s November debut — though it should still fall well short of the 1.578 million posted by Swift’s Midnights earlier that month. (A closer battle will be with the 605,000 units of Swift’s Red (Taylor’s Version) for the biggest first week for any country album of the equivalent album units era, which replaced pure album sales as the Billboard 200’s ranking metric in 2014.)
Then it’s a question of how long the album will hold atop the Billboard 200. It will face a worthy competitor next week with the debut of Miley Cyrus’ 13-track Endless Summer Vacation, led by the six-week Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 “Flowers,” and sets are expected later in the month from big names like Fall Out Boy, Lana Del Rey and fellow country superstar Luke Combs. But Dangerous reigned for its first 10 weeks with a shorter tracklist and a much slower start than One Thing, so any challengers to the throne have their work cut out for them.
IN THE MIX
Kali Uchis, Red Moon in Venus (Geffen/EMI): Red Moon marks acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter Kali Uchis’ first album since crossing over with her TikTok-driven 2021 hit “Telepatía.” First-week album sales for the set should be boosted by a variety of available variants, with three different vinyl LPs (including a salmon-colored vinyl exclusive to Urban Outfitters), a signed CD sold exclusively in her official webstore and four different deluxe boxed sets (two with a T-shirt and a CD, two with a hoodie and a CD).
NCT 127, Ay-Yo – The 4th Album Repackage (SM): Korean pop boy band NCT 127 had a top five hit on the Billboard 200 last fall with their fourth album 2 Baddies – which was repackaged and retitled with three new bonus tracks and released to streaming services and digital retailers in January as Ay-Yo. The set should see big gains this week with its physical release, including three different collectible CDs with randomized elements packaged inside.
Macklemore, Ben (Bendo): For veteran Seattle rapper Macklemore’s first album since 2017’s No. 2-peaking Gemini, he’s pulling out all the stops with the physical variants: different-colored vinyl exclusive to his website and to Urban Outfitters, six boxed sets (with such goodies as posters, hoodies and signed CDs) and even a cassette version. The album has been discounted to $3.50 for the CD and digital version on his webstore.
De La Soul, Three Feet High and Rising (AOI): After a decades-long battle over their catalog, legendary New York rap group De La Soul finally brought their full discography to streaming services last Friday (though, sadly, just weeks after the death of co-founder Trugoy the Dove), along with physical reissues of their six albums on vinyl, CD and cassette. Unsurprisingly, the best-performing of their sets looks to be 1989 debut 3 Feet High and Rising – one of the most acclaimed rap albums ever, thanks to classics like “Me, Myself & I,” “Eye Know” and “Buddy,” — which is available in multiple vinyl variants, and may surpass its original Billboard 200 peak of No. 24.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 11), a number of new releases challenge SZA’s ongoing Billboard 200 supremacy — led by the latest from a Latin pop star looking to accomplish the unprecedented.
Karol G, Mañana Será Bonito (Universal Latino): Karol G might not be a household name among mainstream U.S. audiences, but that could change with the debut of her fourth album. The Latin pop star reached a higher peak on the Billboard 200 with each of her first three albums — 2017’s Unstoppable (No. 192), 2019’s Ocean (No. 54) and 2021’s KG0516 (No. 20) — and last year scored her first two top 25 hits on the Billboard Hot 100, with “Provenza” and her Becky G collaboration “Mamiii.” Now, with last Friday’s (Feb. 24) Mañana Será Bonito, she should be in the mix for the chart’s top spot.
Mañana is currently available on CD and as a digital album — it topped the iTunes albums chart on its day of release — and is helped by the inclusion of streaming smash “Provenza,” as well as Hot 100 hits “Gatúbela’ (with Maldy) and “X Si Volvemos” (with Romeo Santos). But the album’s biggest hit might be brand new: the much-hyped Shakira collaboration “TDQ,” which has been in the top 10 of the daily charts on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and iTunes since its release.
If the album does debut at No. 1, it would make history as the first all-Spanish-language album by a female artist to reach the top spot — joining only Bad Bunny (who’s done it twice, with 2020’s El Último Tour del Mundo and 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti) among all artists. She’d also be only the third woman with a mostly non-English language No. 1 album, following Selena (Dreaming of You, 1995) and The Singing Nun (The Singing Nun, 1963). Dreaming of You blended Spanish and English, while The Singing Nun was recorded entirely in French.
Gorillaz, Cracker Island (Parlaphone/Warner): Gorillaz fans have been waiting to take the trip to Cracker Island since the album’s title track came out last June — followed by a steady stream of singles, including the top 20 Hot Rock & Alternative Songs hit “New Gold,” featuring Tame Impala and Bootie Brown. Now, the full 10-track album is finally out, available for sale in over a dozen vinyl variants, box sets, as well as four cassette options. Speaking of Bad Bunny: He graces the album’s “Tormenta,” which should provide a nice boon to the album’s streaming numbers.
Yeat, AfterLyfë (Geffen/Field Trip/Twizzy Rich): One of the most-hyped rappers of the last few years, enigmatic hip-hop sensation Yeat released his third album in three years last week with AfterLyfë. Yeat’s streaming prowess sent 2022’s 2 Alive to No. 6 on the Billboard 200, and the 21-track AfterLyfë seems likely to join it in the chart’s top 10. The album’s lone high-profile guest is the YoungBoy Never Broke Again guest spot on “Shmunk,” however, and it has no physical release currently available for sale.
IN THE MIX
Don Toliver, Love Sick (Cactus Jack/Atlantic): Rapper-singer Don Toliver has been a ubiquitous supporting actor in hip-hop over the past year, showing up on Hot 100 hits from Billboard 200-topping albums by Pusha T (“Scrape It Off” from It’s Almost Dry), Metro Boomin (“Too Many Nights” from Heroes and Villains) and SZA (“Used” from SOS). Now he gets his own shot with Love Sick, which follows 2021’s No. 2-peaking Life of a Don and boasts guest appearances from Justin Bieber, Future, Lil Durk, Brent Faiyaz and other big names.
Godsmack, Lighting Up the Sky (BMG): It’s been two decades since the Massachusetts hard rock band was at its commercial peak, but Godsmack remains a reliable performer on the Billboard 200, sending each of its past six albums to the chart’s top 10. Lighting Up the Sky is the group’s first release since 2018’s No. 8-peaking When Legends Rise – the longest gap between albums in Godsmack’s career — and contains their 12th No. 1 on Billboard’s Mainstream Rock Airplay chart with lead single “I Surrender.”
Gracie Abrams, Good Riddance (Interscope): Gracie Abrams has long cultivated a reputation as your favorite singer-songwriter’s favorite singer-songwriter, and this February she finally put out her debut album, Good Riddance. The album does not yet have any major chart hits to its credit, but it comes with chart-topping pedigree in its primary artistic partner, writer-producer Aaron Dessner – whose frequent collaborator Taylor Swift is taking Abrams out on her impossibly anticipated The Eras Tour this spring.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 4), as SZA’s SOS goes for its 10th week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart, she’ll have to fend off pop’s most acrobatic veteran star, as well as hitmakers from the country and dance worlds.
P!nk, Trustfall (RCA): While P!nk used to be one of top 40’s most ubiquitous figures, she hasn’t reached the Billboard Hot 100’s top 40 since 2017 and her most recent lead single, “Never Gonna Not Dance Again,” has so far toppedout at No. 99. Still, two decades of being a household name — and more recently, a stadium-level touring draw – ensure that P!nk remains a major threat on the Billboard 200. She’s topped the chart with each of her last three albums, most recently 2019’s Hurts 2B Human.
Trustfall will, however, be P!nk’s first album release since the 2020 elimination of ticket bundles from Billboard 200 calculations – sure to affect the first-week numbers for such a top-flight live draw. Helping to make up the sales difference will be the multiple options for physical purchase via P!nk’s webstore, including a limited -edition T-shirt box set, and a “zine-pak” including a CD.
Jordan Davis, Bluebird Days (MCA Nashville): Since Jordan Davis’ 2018 debut album, Home State, he has become one of country’s preeminent hitmakers on both radio and streaming, with four Country Airplay No. 1s and two entries on the all-genre Streaming Songs chart. Both of those latter hits are found on Davis’ sophomore album, Bluebird Days, as well as the currently rising Billboard Hot 100 single “Next Thing You Know.” Bluebird is available for sale in a variety of physical packages on Davis’ webstore.
Skrillex, Quest for Fire / Don’t Get Too Close (Owsla/Atlantic): Skrillex has been one of the most visible dance artists of the last 15 years, just about everywhere except the Billboard 200. Until last week, he’d only released one full-length album, 2014’s No. 4-peaking Recess. But after dropping Quest for Fire and then, as a surprise, Don’t Get Too Close on Saturday, that number of LPs has tripled for the no-longer-bespectacled superproducer.
Both releases came in the midst of a live Skrillex performance blitz in New York – alongside big-name collaborators Four Tet and Fred Again.. — with three surprise gigs at smaller venues (including one “pop-up rave” out of a converted school bus) leading up to the trio’s much-anticipated Saturday night performance at Madison Square Garden, where Close was first announced. The albums are currently streaming, but only available for physical purchase through preorder on the Atlantic webstore, with CDs set to arrive in March, cassettes in April and vinyl in July.
IN THE MIX
Taylor Swift, Lover – Live (Republic): Taylor Swift never got to properly tour behind her 2019 album Lover before the pandemic hit, but before heading out on her Eras Tour, she’s giving fans a taste of what might have been with this live set, taken from her one-off “City of Lover” Paris concert that September. Don’t bother searching for it on Spotify or Apple Music, though – Lover – Live was only made available for limited purchase (on heart-shaped double vinyl) via Swift’s webstore, and already looks to be sold out.
Big Scarr, The Secret Weapon (1017/Atlantic): Signed to Gucci Mane’s 1017 label, Memphis rapper Big Scarr looked to be one of the decade’s rising stars before his death from a prescription drug overdose at age 22 in December. This month, his too-brief legacy is continued with the release of posthumous album The Secret Weapon, a 17-track effort featuring appearances from Gucci, Pooh Shiesty and Key Glock.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 25), as SZA’s SOS starts to approach double-digit weeks atop the Billboard 200, it faces new challengers from a pair of veteran rock bands, as well as an artist whose comeback gig was just watched by over 100 million people.
Paramore, This Is Why (Atlantic): One of the year’s most-anticipated rock releases comes from longtime hitmakers Paramore, who are finishing out their Atlantic Records tenure with its sixth album, This Is Why. The band’s first full-length in six years is led by the hit title track, which recently became its first-ever Alternative Airplay No. 1, and comes on the heels of a media blitz that includes features in NPR and The New Yorker, as well as a Billboard digital cover story. (The group’s last album, 2017’s After Laughter, peaked at No. 6 on the Billboard 200, while their 2013 self-titled album topped the chart.)
This Is Why is expected to sell a significant number of physical copies, with six different vinyl variants available, as well as deluxe boxed sets that contain a T-shirt, along with either a CD or vinyl option. It will need robust sales to make up for the streaming gap between it and SZA’s SOS, which will otherwise score its ninth week atop the Billboard 200. That would break a tie to make it the longest-running No. 1 album from a female artist this decade.
Pierce the Veil, The Jaws of Life (Fearless): Pierce the Veil were one of the most commercially successful post-hardcore bands of the 2010s, and its 2016 set, Misadventures, reached No. 4 on the Billboard 200. The Jaws of Life arrives in the wake of the 2022 lead single “Pass the Nirvana” — which tied 2015’s “The Divine Sorry” as the group’s highest-ever entry on the Hot Rock Songs chart with its No. 21 peak. (It also follows a viral moment for their decade-old Kellin Quinn collaboration “King for a Day,” which took off on TikTok last August.) Jaws‘ sales should be helped by over a dozen vinyl variants available on the band’s webstore.
Rihanna, Anti (Westbury Road/Roc Nation) & Good Girl Gone Bad (Def Jam): As you may have heard, Rihanna recently broke a five-year drought of public performances with a small gig Sunday night. Her Super Bowl Halftime performance, which included over a dozen of her biggest hits was watched by 118 million viewers, many of whom unsurprisingly took to streaming services and music retailers to re-listen to several of the classics she played – and even some she didn’t, based on the way her songs are blanketing the Spotify, Apple Music and iTunes charts.
The impact of the bump for these songs will be felt on the Billboard 200, where five of her albums look set to appear this week – most, if not all, in the chart’s top half. They will likely be led by Rihanna’s two perennial biggest albums: The 2016 Anti (from which she played parts of “Work” and “Kiss It Better”) and 2007’s Good Girl Gone Bad (“Umbrella”). The two releases rank at No. 50 and No. 137 on the current Billboard 200, having spent 354 and 103 weeks on the chart, respectively.
IN THE MIX
Post Malone, Twelve Carat Toothache (Mercury/Republic): Posty’s 2022 album has remained on the Billboard 200 since its No. 2 debut in June , and it’s now at No. 99 in its 36th week on the chart. It should see big gains next week, thanks to its debut on vinyl, which is now available in multiple variants. (Post has also been all over ads for the NBA’s upcoming All-Star Weekend, held in his current home state of Utah, and the and his visibility there could help as well.)
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 18), as TOMRROW X TOGETHER’s new EP drops in sales in its second week, new albums from Shania Twain and Raye look to seize the Billboard 200’s top spot, with SZA’s SOS still lurking.
Shania Twain, Queen of Me (Republic): Few artists in the history of popular music have a resumé of hit albums to match Shania Twain’s: She’s released three RIAA Diamond-certified albums, including 1997’s double-Diamond Come on Over. No one would expect her Queen of Me, released Friday (Feb. 3), to reach similar sales heights decades later — though her last album, 2017’s Now, topped the Billboard 200, albeit with a ticket bundle that undoubtedly contributed to her first-week sales of 134,000.
Twain won’t receive any such boost for Queen of Me — those bundles were eliminated from Billboard chart calculations in Oct. 2020. But she will be helped by multiple vinyl and CD variants, including exclusives for both Target and Walmart (the Target CD has 2 bonus tracks, while Walmart’s CD has an alternate cover). Her webstore and indie retail are also selling a signed CD, while her webstore also has a couple of deluxe box set editions with a signed CD and T-shirt inside. Plus, she’s still riding the momentum from her Netflix documentary Not Just a Girl, which resulted in a catalog-wide spike for the country-pop legend last August.
Raye, My 21st Century Blues (Human Re Sources): After going through a high-profile dispute and breakup with former label Polydor, British soul-pop singer-songwriter Raye went indie and landed the biggest global hit of her career, with the 070 Shake-assisted (and TikTok-launched) heartbreak lament “Escapism.” That single has topped the U.K.’s Official Charts and climbed to No. 22 on the Billboard Hot 100, setting the stage for her debut studio album My 21st Century Blues.
Raye has a couple of vinyl variants available for Blues, including a signed edition sold on her webstore as well as a signed CD and a cassette tape that are also listed for sale there. She and Twain are already locked into a battle for No. 1 in the U.K., so it’s possible that any additional measures — including extra last-minute new promotions and album variants — will spill into their race on the Billboard 200.
Harry Styles, Harry’s House (Erskine/Columbia): The album of the year winner at Sunday’s Grammys may see a gain on the charts this week thanks to renewed streaming interest: Second single “Late Night Talking” was the biggest mover on Spotify’s US Daily Top 200 on Monday, while four other songs re-entered the chart. The album currently sits at No. 13 on the Billboard 200, so the increase will likely be enough to at least get it back into the chart’s top 10. (Beyoncé’s Renaissance is currently 11 spots below it at No. 24 — and in addition to the boost it should receive post-Grammys, that album will also benefit from a spate of “Cuff It” remixes recently released for sale on Bey’s webstore, which were also just made available on digital retailers this Wednesday.)
Lower on the chart, another artist should also benefit from a Grammy bump: best new artist winner Samara Joy. While she’s unlikely to contend in the Styles-Beyoncé regions of the chart, her Linger Awhile album should appear somewhere this week, marking her first-ever entry on the Billboard 200.
