State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 22), Taylor Swift once again leaves the rest of the pop world in the dust with perhaps her best-performing Taylor’s Version full-album recreation yet.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): When it was released in 2010 as her third album, Speak Now became Taylor Swift’s first set to sell over a million copies in its first week. Her Taylor’s Version re-recording of the fan-favorite album might not post a seven-digit debut, but it’s already come closer than any other album in 2023. Billboard reported on Tuesday (July 11) that this Speak Now had passed 575,000 equivalent album units in just its first four days — already blowing past the 501,000 moved by previous mark-setter, Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time, in its first frame.
Those would be incredible numbers for any new release in 2023, let alone one where 16 of the 22 tracks included are near-soundalike re-dos of 13-year-old songs. Making the 400,000 in direct sales that the album has already accrued even more impressive is that the album is only available in a handful of physical editions – three vinyl variants (including an exclusive color for Target), a CD, a cassette, and a digital release – compared to many 2020s best-sellers (including Swift’s own 2022 blockbuster Midnights), which are released in dozens of physical editions to maximize fan purchases.
Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) has already put Swift’s peers in its rearview, but how will it compare to her own recently set standards? It’s unlikely to get close to the first-week numbers of Midnights, which scored an unthinkable-for-2022 1.578 million units. But it has a very good chance of passing 2021’s Red (Taylor’s Version), which debuted with 605,000 units, to become the biggest first week for any of her three re-recordings to date.
To pass Red (Taylor’s Version) would also be pretty staggering for this Speak Now, considering it has fewer tracks (22 to Red (TV)’s 30) and lacks a song driving as much pre-release excitement as that set’s “All Too Well (10-Minute Version),” which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 the same week the new Red topped the Billboard 200. (“I Can See You,” one of the set’s six first-time recordings, did receive a music video co-starring Speak Now-era Taylorverse fixtures Joey King, Taylor Lautner and Presley Cash, and looks to be due for a major Hot 100 debut next week.)
In the Mix
Lucki, S*x M*ney Dr*gs (EMPIRE): One of the most acclaimed rappers from the current rising wave of Chicago MCs, Lucki reached a career-best No. 12 on the Billboard 200 with 2012’s Flawless Like Me set. He may do even better with this month’s S*x M*ney Dr*gs mixtape, which only features one guest (fellow cult favorite Veeze) on its 15 tracks, but is already posting career-best streaming numbers that most rappers would be, well, lucky to have in 2023.
Dominic Fike, Sunburn (Columbia): If you listened to Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist last week, you might have noticed that the lead track was not from Taylor Swift’s latest, but rather from the long-awaited second album for singer-songwriter Dominic Fike. Columbia executives still have big hopes for Fike, who greatly increased his profile last year with a big role on HBO phenomenon Euphoria, and he may have something of a breakout hit with the album’s “Mona Lisa” — written for and briefly included on the deluxe edition of Metro Boomin’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse soundtrack — which climbs to No. 36 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart this week.
Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (Polydor/Interscope): Lana Del Rey’s ninth album debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200 in April — and while it’s remained on the chart for the past 15 weeks, it’s dropped all the way to No. 184. It should rebound significantly next week, though. thanks to a recent vinyl reissue with a cover featuring a partially nude photo of Del Rey. (She had previously considered the image for the album’s original cover, before deciding to “let the songs do the talking for now.”)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 8), an unexpected release from an incarcerated rapper leads a week that also includes some familiar names releasing debut albums, and others releasing their first projects in six years.
Young Thug, Business Is Business (YSL/300): A week after Gunna reached the Billboard 200’s No. 3 spot with his A Gift & A Curse album, his labelmate Young Thug should have a chance of doing even better with his new set, Business Is Business. Much interest in the new set is undoubtedly driven by not only the rapper’s incarceration, while he awaits trial on racketeering charges, but also his possibly strained relationship with Gunna — who was similarly indicted in the RICO trial, but released after taking an Alford Plea (a formal admission of guilt made while also maintaining innocence).
The alleged drama between the two rappers isn’t the only thing spurring consumption of the set, though. Young Thug has long been one of the most successful rappers on streaming, and Business’ tracklist is filled with appearances from A-listers like Drake, Lil Uzi Vert, Future, 21 Savage & Travis Scott. The 15-track set, which does not yet have a physical release, is also receiving today a deluxe Metro’s Version, named after its executive producer (and longtime Thug collaborator) Metro Boomin, and including two extra bonus tracks, including one with appearances from superstars Nicki Minaj and the late Juice WRLD.
Standing in the album’s way, of course, is Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – now the longest-reigning album of the last 10 years on the Billboard 200, with its 14 weeks on top. That album is still posting weekly units in the low six figures, so Thug will need to do a little better than the 90,000 first-week units his most recent album (2021’s Punk) notched to claim the top spot. (He would also score the first hip-hop No. 1 album of 2023 on the Billboard 200 in the process.)
Peso Pluma, Génesis (Double P/Prajin/The Orchard): No star around the globe has risen as quickly or as dramatically this year as Mexican corridos singer-songwriter Peso Pluma. He’s already made such an impact on the Billboard Hot 100 this year – reaching the chart 11 times, including with the top 5 hit “Ella Baila Sola,” alongside Eslabon Armado – that it’s pretty hard to believe that last week’s 14-track set Génesis is actually his debut album.
The album – which technically debuted last Thursday (June 22), bowing at No. 35 on Billboard’s Top Latin Albums chart with less than a full day of consumption– does not load up on those aforementioned Hot 100 hits, with only closer “Bye” having reached the chart. That should change next week, with the album dotting the daily charts of DSPs, led by likely breakout hit “Lady Gaga” with Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H. It’ll have to do most of its damage on streaming, as the album is also not yet for sale in any physical formats.
Kelly Clarkson, Chemistry (Atlantic): While veteran pop/rock hitmaker Kelly Clarkson isn’t the streaming force that Young Thug and Peso Pluma are, her Chemistry album will probably have much more of a sales impact. The LP, her first since 2017’s Meaning of Life is available in at least six different vinyl variants, including some retail-exclusive editions – along with a signed CD sold in her webstore, and Amazon- and Target-exclusive versions with a poster and alternate cover, respectively. It may be enough to help Chemistry became Clarkson’s eighth consecutive top five-charting original album, a streak that stretches all the way back to 2003 debut Thankful.
IN THE MIX
Kim Petras, Feed the Beast (Amigo/Republic): Though cult pop favorite Kim Petras has been releasing acclaimed singles, EPs and mixtapes for six years now, June’s Feed the Beast is her official debut album. It arrives after her breakthrough success with the Hot 100-topping “Unholy” — which is featured here, along with the Nicki Minaj-featuring “Alone” – and is being sold as a signed CD in her webstore.
Portugal. The Man, Chris Black Changed My Life (Atlantic): Portugal. The Man a very personally and collectively trying half-decade following their 2017 breakout smash “Feel It Still,” as chronicled in the group’s recent Billboard digital cover story. Their new set – named after PTM’s longtime friend and touring hypeman, who died in 2019 – doesn’t feature a single like that, but it does have a top 10 Rock & Alternative Airplay hit with “Dummy.” It’s also available as a cassette, as a signed CD, and in multiple vinyl variants.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 1), a star rapper looks to continue his hot streak, while hard rock veterans and K-poppers also put the top spot in their sights.
Gunna, A Gift and a Curse (YSL/300): Though Gunna has been under attack on social media since last December for his supposed “snitching” in accepting an Alford plea — a formal admission of guilt while also maintaining innocence — for his part in the YSL RICO trial, it appears that he remains a prolific performer on streaming. (He denied any cooperation with the prosecution.) His new album A Gift and a Curse has littered the Spotify and Apple Music real-time charts since its release last Friday (June 16), with the shout-along “fukumean” already seeming like a breakout hit from the set.
The rapper born Sergio Giavanni Kitchens has been a regular visitor to the top spot of the Billboard 200 since his late-’10s rise to stardom. And he’s already been there three times this decade – with his own Wunna (2020) and DS4Ever (2022) albums, and as a co-lead on the YSL showcase compilation Slime Language 2 (2021). DS4Ever, Gunna’s most recent set, was also his most popular, moving 150,000 first-week units and topping even The Weeknd’s new Dawn FM to claim the top spot.
To unseat Morgan Wallen – who returns to No. 1 for a 13th frame with his One Thing at a Time blockbuster this chart week – he’ll need to do it almost entirely with streaming (with help from digital sales), as the album is not yet for sale in any physical format. Wallen posted 115,000 units in its most recent week, so if Gunna can approach his DS4ever debut performance with his new set, he should have a pretty good shot of becoming the latest act to interrupt the country star’s months-long reign.
Ateez, The World Ep.2: Outlaw (KQ/RCA/Legacy): It’s going to be a classic case of sales vs. streams in next week’s competition for top debut on the Billboard 200. Eight-piece Korean boy band Ateez has yet to establish a big stateside presence on streaming services, but like many popular K-pop acts, the act sells physical copies by the truckload – which has already helped their Spin Off: From the Witness set hit No. 7 earlier this year, and their The World Ep.1: Movement EP get all the way to No. 3 on the Billboard 200 last August.
The sequel to that latter EP, The World Ep. 2: Outlaw is also expected to make a pretty big chart splash next week, again thanks to robust physical sales. To maximize that opportunity, the octet has released 21 different collectible CD editions of Outlaw, including some signed variants, all containing branded merchandise and randomized items (action cards, partner cards, photo cards) — as well as a Target-exclusive edition.
Queens of the Stone Age, In Times New Roman… (Matador): Queens of the Stone Age albums are becoming increasingly infrequent – it’s been six years since the band’s Villains – but the veteran hard rock band has historically been a strong performer on the Billboard 200, and it even topped the chart two albums ago with 2013’s …Like Clockwork. This month’s In Times New Roman… will be helped by a series of different-colored vinyl variants, though thus far the album lacks a hit single to match Villains’ top 10-charting Rock Airplay hit “The Way You Used to Do.”
In the Mix
J. Cole, Born Sinner (ByStorm/Columbia/Dreamville/Roc Nation): As fans eagerly await a new album from Cole — and as he sticks around the top five on the BillboardHot 100 with his appearance on Lil Durk’s smash “All My Life” — fans also have new goodies to tide them over with the vinyl reissue of his 2013 chart-topper Born Sinner. The LP is available in a trio of color variants, including a translucent red exclusive to Target.
Asake, Work of Art (YNBL/Empire): Asake’s debut album Mr. Money With the Vibe was one of the most-acclaimed and best-received Afrobeats albums of 2022, reaching the top half of the Billboard 200. The Nigerian singer/songwriter looks to do even better than that set’s No. 66 bow with this month’s Work of Art, which has already scored a pair of top 10 hits on the Billboard U.S. Afrobeats Songs chart with advance tracks “Amapiano” (with Olamide) and “2:30.”
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 18), Stray Kids aim for their third No. 1 album in two years, while new albums from rising country hitmakers, star producers and veteran rockers also jockey for position.
Stray Kids, 5-Star (JYP/Republic): Stray Kids have proven themselves among pop’s most consistent performers of any nationality on the Billboard 200 in the past couple years, having topped the chart twice already in 2022 alone, with EPs Oddinary and Maxident. This week, they should have a pretty good shot at making it three in a row with their new 12-track LP, 5-Star.
Once again, physical sales should drive consumption of the new set, with a variety of available options for fans. That includes 18 total collectible CD packages (with exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart, the Weverse store and a signed edition in the group’s official webstore) that contain artist-branded merch, some of which is standard across all packages and some of which is randomized (photo cards, mini posters, sticker sets, photo books).
There are also four alternative digital versions of the album, sold only in the act’s webstore, each containing the same tracklists, but with alternative covers and bonus tracks (each with different voice memos from individual members of the group), selling for $6.99 each. After 12 consecutive weeks of Morgan Wallen largely streaming his way to No. 1, we might have our second straight week of sales determining the chart’s top spot, following Taylor Swift’s reissue-prompted Midnights rebound last week.
Jelly Roll, Whitsitt Chapel (Bailey & Buddee/BBR Music Group): Billboard’s May cover star has yet to get higher than No. 97 on the Billboard 200 – but that should change with the release of Whitsitt Chapel, Jelly Roll‘s first album since pivoting fully to country. The set follows the 2022 breakout success of Ballads of the Broken singles “Dead Man Walking” and “Son of a Sinner” — as well as a star making night at the 2023 CMT Awards, where he took home three trophies — and features a hit of its own with “Need a Favor,” which climbs 40-31 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week.
Though Jelly Roll streams fairly well, sales should also make up the majority of Whitsitt Chapel’s first-week numbers. To that end, he’s released the album in three vinyl LPs (including a color variant exclusive for Walmart), a standard CD, a signed CD that was sold through his webstore, a digital download (which is discounted to an on-brand $4.20 in his webstore), nine deluxe CD boxed sets that include branded merch and a copy of the CD, and even a “hymnal” Zine/CD package.
Metro Boomin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Soundtrack From and Inspired by the Motion Picture) (Boominati/Republic): With rave reviews and strong early box office returns, the new Across the Spider-Verse is well on its way to becoming one of the year’s biggest movies – and its soundtrack might not be too far behind. Curated by super-producer Metro Boomin, who most recently topped the Billboard 200 last December with his Heroes &Villains set, the similarly star-studded soundtrack features appearances from such big names as Future, Lil Uzi Vert, 21 Savage, A$AP Rocky, Coi Leray, Nas and Swae Lee.
The set does not yet have a physical release – it is available for digital download — but it should stream enough to still be a major factor on the chart, with three tracks still in the top 20 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart as of Wednesday. It should also get a nice boost from the mid-week drop of a deluxe edition of the album, boasting an extra six tracks and additional appearances from Dominic Fike, Becky G, Shenseea and more hitmakers.
IN THE MIX
Foo Fighters, But Here We Are (Roswell/RCA): The first Foo Fighters album since the shocking death of drummer Taylor Hawkins in early 2022, But Here We Are is led by the Rock & Alternative Airplay-topping single “Rescued,” and has received some of the strongest reviews of the band’s career. The album is not expected to stream in huge numbers, though, and is available in fewer variants than some of its competition: just in black vinyl, white vinyl, CD and cassette versions and as a digital download.
Enhypen, Dark Blood (Belift Lab/Genie/Stone): Stray Kids aren’t the only Korean boy band expected to make a big impact on the Billboard 200 this week – there’s also septet Enhypen, who previously hit No. 6 on the chart with 2022 EP Manifesto: Day 1. Their new six-track set Dark Blood was released digitally on May 22, but this chart week brings its physical release – which, like 5-Star, includes 17 collectible CD packages (with a number of store exclusives) that contain artist-branded merch, some of which is standard across all packages and some randomized.
Moneybagg Yo, Hard to Love (Roc Nation/Bread Gang/N-Less/Collective Music Group, Interscope): Moneybagg Yo was set to release new mixtape Hard to Love the previous Friday, but decided not to go up against his “little baby Taylor” and her Midnights reissues. He’s still going to have his work cut out for him rising above the glut of new releases this week, particularly without any kind of physical release – but the Memphis rapper has enjoyed regular success on the Billboard 200 in recent years, with his last three albums all hitting the chart‘s top five, and 2021’s A Gangsta’s Pain reaching the top spot.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 11), Morgan Wallen’s 12-week No. 1 faces formidable challenges from a deluxified Taylor Swift blockbuster and a new Lil Durk album.
Taylor Swift, Midnights (Republic): Remember this one? It’s not as though Taylor Swift’s massive Midnights has ever fallen far from the top spot after its seismic, 1.57 million-unit-moving debut week last October – as recently as the chart dated May 27, it was perched in the runner-up spot. But next week, it may have its best chance yet at getting back to No. 1 since it ceded the Billboard 200‘s top spot to Metro Boomin’s Heroes and Villains set last December.
That’s for several reasons, including new physical and digital re-issues of Midnights that came out last Friday (May 26). For vinyl enthusiasts, she debuted the new Love Potion purple marble variant of Midnights, which is available in independent stores (and was also briefly for preorder sale on her webstore earlier in the week). Fans more comfortable with DSPs and MP3s can get the Til Dawn edition of Midnights, which includes three bonus tracks: another version of the original album’s Lana Del Rey-featuring “Snow on the Beach” (this time with more Lana), a remix of “Karma” featuring buzzy rapper Ice Spice and “Hits Different,” previously available only on the Target-exclusive physical edition of Midnights.
If all that isn’t enough, there’s also Midnights (The Late Night Edition) — which was also very briefly for sale as a digital download on Swift’s webstore, as well as in CD form at her three live shows at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium over the weekend. This version also includes the new takes on “Snow” and “Karma,” and an original bonus cut, “You’re Losing Me,” which is not yet available for streaming. Between all these new editions of Midnights – already one of the best-performing albums of the 2020s — the clock may finally be ticking for Morgan Wallen’s continuous run at No. 1 with One Thing at a Time.
Lil Durk, Almost Healed (Only the Family/Alamo/Sony): If not for Midnights re-entering the discussion, we’d likely be talking about the latest album from hip-hop superstar Lil Durk as having the best chance of unseating One Thing at No. 1. The Chicago rapper’s Almost Healed is his first LP since last year’s 7220, which brought him to the top of the Billboard 200 for the first time as an unaccompanied solo artist.
Durk is also riding his biggest Billboard Hot 100 success to date as a lead artist, with Almost Healed’s J. Cole-featuring advance single “All My Life” debuting at No. 2 on the Hot 100 last week. Beyond Cole, the 21-track set also features a wide variety of big-name guests, including Future, 21 Savage, Alicia Keys, Kodak Black, the late Juice WRLD – and even Wallen himself, who teams up again with his old “Broadway Girls” co-star for this album’s “Stand by Me.”
IN THE MIX
Kodak Black, Pistolz & Pearlz (Atlantic/Sniper Gang): Speaking of Kodak Black: The Florida rapper is also back, with his own follow-up to a smash 2022 LP (the “Super Gremlin”-featuring Back for Everything) in new set Pistolz & Pearlz. The new album, which has no A-list features and also lacks a physical release (or a lead single on the level of the top five-peaking Hot 100 hit “Gremlin”) may be Kodak’s final one for Atlantic — with the chart-topping rapper inking a new deal in 2022 to move to Capitol after his contract was done.
Matchbox Twenty, Where the Light Goes (Atlantic): The last time we heard from turn-of-the-century pop/rock superstars Matchbox Twenty, in 2012, they were topping the Billboard 200 with the band’s fourth album, North. A lot has changed about the industry and about the top 40 landscape since, but the group returns this year with fifth album Where the Light Goes and is offering multiple vinyl variants with alternate cover art (as well as cassette, CD and digital releases) for the album, to hopefully still put up a first-week number worthy of the group’s best-selling ‘00s days.
Tina Turner, All the Best: The Hits (Parlophone): Tina Turner’s death last week at age 83 sent the music industry into mourning, and fans to DSPs and online retailers to consume the legendary performer’s classic catalog. The set of hers that has received the bulk of the attention so far is her 2004 compilation All the Best, which assembles 18 of her signature hits, with most of the focus on her ‘80s and ‘90s solo material. The collection debuts at No. 45 on the Billboard 200 this week and will likely climb even higher in the first full week following her passing.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 4), a veteran rock group looks to score its first Billboard 200 No. 1 of the 2020s, with competition from a U.K. singer-songwriter, a couple hard rock outfits, and – of course – Morgan Wallen.
Dave Matthews Band, Walk Around the Moon (RCA): It might not be the first group that comes to mind when naming the biggest acts of the past 30 years, but few rock bands have ever enjoyed as consistent success as the Dave Matthews Band on the Billboard 200. The group has reached No. 1 with each of their last seven studio albums — a streak dating back to 1998’s Before These Crowded Streets – and hopes to make it eight with the release of last Friday’s (May 19) Walk Around the Moon, its first album of the 2020s.
However, the DMB’s chances to unseat Morgan Wallen (11 weeks and counting with his One Thing at a Time) will be impacted by a change in Billboard’s charts since the last time it released an album: the 2020 elimination of ticket bundles from Billboard 200 calculations, which previously provided a big boost to the exceedingly popular live outfit. (Recent rule changes have reintroduced “fan pack” bundles to Billboard chart calculations, but through merch rather than tickets, and with much stricter rules about eligibility.) Instead, the band will have to rely largely on physical sales — to which end, it has released multiple vinyl variants, including exclusive color variants for the band’s fan club, Barnes & Noble, independent record stores and Target.
Lewis Capaldi, Broken by Desire to Be Heavenly Sent (Vertigo/Universal/Capitol): Though Scottish singer-songwriter Lewis Capaldi reached the apex of the Billboard Hot 100 with his late-’10s breakthrough hit “Someone You Loved,” he topped out at No. 20 on the Billboard 200 with debut album Divinely Uninspired to a Hellish Extent. After a few years of steady fanbase building, he may fare a little better with sophomore set Broken by Desire to Be Heavenly Sent — which features a more modest Hot 100 success with lead single “Forget Me” (No. 58) but has multiple vinyl LPs, four CD editions and even five cassette variants available for purchase.
Summer Walker, Clear 2: Soft Life (LVRN/Interscope): R&B star Summer Walker is on her way to being one of the most consistent LP artists of her generation — 2019 debut set Over It hit No. 2 on the Billboard 200 and its 2021 sequel, Still Over It, made it to No. 1, both also drawing considerable critical acclaim – but her EP success has been less resounding, with 2020’s Life on Earth tapping out at No. 8, with no real breakout hits. Her latest EP is Clear 2: Soft Life, a nine-track offering with a pair of big-name guests in J. Cole and Childish Gambino — but again, the set’s songs have not performed on the streaming charts the way Still Over It’s tracks did in their first week, suggesting fans still want to enjoy a longer Summer.
In the Mix
Ghost, Phantomine (Loma Vista) / Sleep Token, Take Me Back to Eden (Spinefarm): The streaming era has not been particularly generous to hard rock and heavy metal, but two bands from those genres that have found real success are Ghost and Sleep Token. Both will impact the charts next week with new releases: Ghost with a covers EP (featuring takes on Genesis, Iron Maiden and Tina Turner) and Sleep Token with their first LP since going viral with advance track “The Summoning” earlier this year. Those built-in streaming numbers will boost Eden, while Phantomine is aided by multiple vinyl LP variants and (somewhat ironically) a Spotify-exclusive cassette.
Beyoncé, Renaissance (Parkwood/Columbia): Whether it can spark the kind of extended catalog-wide gains that Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour has in its first couple months remains to be seen, but the launch of Beyoncé’s Renaissance Tour has already given its titular album a nice bump on the Billboard 200, lifting it 49-34 on this week’s chart. It may rise even higher next week with the Friday release of her new “America Has a Problem” remix, featuring rap superstar Kendrick Lamar, which is off to a good start on streaming and whose metrics will be rolled in with the original Renaissance album cut.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 20), new albums from big names in the worlds of pop, hip-hop and country look to impact the Billboard 200’s top tier — along with a reissued dance chart-topper from a decade ago.
Jonas Brothers, The Album (Republic): The brothers band already had one of the century’s most successful comebacks after a decade-long hiatus in 2019, topping both the Billboard 200 and the Billboard Hot 100 with their Happiness Begins album and its single “Sucker.” Now the trio looks to do it again with The Album — a set heavily influenced by ‘70s and ‘80s top 40, as well as by their lives as family men.
The Album lacks a lead single as popular as “Sucker,” but the addictive “Waffle House” has started to scale the Hot 100, climbing to No. 82 this week. The group has also been extremely visible in its promotional lead-up to the album, performing two songs from it on Saturday Night Live in April, and kicking off its Five Albums, One Night Tour at Yankee Stadium, playing all of not only The Album, but also their other four albums before it.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Richest Opp (Never Broke Again/Motown): Surprise: Three weeks after his second full-length of 2023, April’s Don’t Try This at Home, YoungBoy is back with the new mixtape Richest Opp. At just 17 tracks, it’s about half the running time of Home, and with none of its big-name features. But it does come with some drama: Opp, announced just days before its release, was set to drop the same day as a (later delayed) new album from fellow star rapper Lil Durk, who YoungBoy has been taking shots at over social media, and who is one of the rappers YoungBoy calls out in the new set’s antagonistic “F–k the Industry Pt. 2.”
Bailey Zimmerman, Religiously. The Album (Warner Nashville/Elektra): As Morgan Wallen continues his still-uninterrupted reign atop the Billboard 200 — now at 10 weeks and counting for his One Thing at a Time — he faces a challenge from a breakout artist whose sound and ascent both mirror his own. Bailey Zimmerman has become one of the most consistently viral artists in country music — with radio success now to match, now that Hot 100 top 10 hit “Rock and a Hard Place” also topped the Country Airplay chart for six weeks — thanks to a delivery that similarly mixes power and vulnerability and lyrics that feel both personal and clever.
Whether the student can depose the master depends on if the rest of his debut album Religiously. The Album streams as well as its advance singles, “Rock” and fellow Hot 100 hits “Fall in Love” and “Fix’n to Break,” all of which are included among the set’s 16 tracks. Zimmerman will also get a boost from several sales variants, including a signed CD (available via his web store), as well as digital and cassette releases.
In the Mix
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories (Columbia): Though the duo of Thomas Bangalter and Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo officially went their separate ways two years ago, the robots are back this week with a 10th anniversary edition of their Billboard 200-topping, album of the year Grammy-winning 2013 album Random Access Memories. The set features a new disk of bonus cuts — including demos, alternate versions and even sequels to some of the original’s tracks – and can be purchased digitally, or as a triple-LP vinyl or double-disc CD set.
Lauren Daigle, Lauren Daigle (Centricity/Atlantic): It’s been five years since CCM breakthrough artist Lauren Daigle crashed the charts with her No. 3-peaking Look Up Child LP and its surprise No. 29 Hot 100 hit “You Say,” but the powerhouse artist often referred to as “the Christian Adele” is now back with her self-titled third album. Lauren Daigle has yet to spawn a crossover hit like “You Say,” but lead single “Thank God I Do” topped Billboard’s Hot Christian Songs listing, and is available for sale in three CD versions and a whopping six vinyl variants, as well as digitally.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 20), one of the biggest pop stars of the past decade takes his turn attempting to depose Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 200 incumbent before its potential 10th week on top.
Ed Sheeran, – (Subtract) (Asylum/Atlantic): For the fifth and presumably final entry in Ed Sheeran’s mathematical symbols series, Sheeran linked up with writer-producer Aaron Dessner for a personal, stripped-down 14-track set. Subtract lacks the kind of obvious pop singles that bolstered prior albums No.6 Collaborations Project (2019) and = (Equals) (2021), though Midas-touched top 40 maestros Max Martin and Shellback are here (along with dance sensation Fred again..) as co-producers on lead single “Eyes Closed.”
“Closed” has not yet achieved the kind of Billboard Hot 100 success of previous No. 2-peaking advance singles “I Don’t Care” (with Justin Bieber) and “Bad Habits” — debuting at just No. 26 and sliding down from there. But there is an obvious precedent for this kind of album finding major success even without a big pop hit, courtesy of Sheeran’s old pal Taylor Swift, whose 2020 album Folklore boasted similarly stark songwriting and stripped-down arrangements (also largely produced and co-authored by Aaron Dessner) and still posted blockbuster first-week numbers. And while Sheeran’s latest single might not have impacted pop culture much yet, his name has certainly been all over headlines lately — thanks to the closely watched copyright trial over his alleged infringement of Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On,” on his “Thinking Out Loud,” for which he was found not liable last week.
Since Sheeran’s streaming numbers are not what they used to be, he’ll need to depend significantly on sales to pass Morgan Wallen’s nine-week No. 1 One Thing at a Time. To that end, – (Subtract) is available in both a standard 14 track edition and a deluxe 18 track edition on DSPs and for digital download, as well as on CD or vinyl. He also has vinyl variants of the standard edition for purchase, including exclusives for Amazon, Barnes & Noble, independent record stores, Target, Urban Outfitters and Walmart. He also has multiple CD editions available in various collectible packages (including a signed CD, an iteration with a lenticular cover, a “textured sand” cover and a “Zine” CD package), and a deluxe boxed set containing a shirt and a signed CD.
Will it all be enough? One Thing’s numbers have continued to slip, now down to 138,000 equivalent album units in its ninth week at No. 1. However, that number is still comfortably higher than the first-week numbers (118,000 units) posted by Sheeran’s Equals album – which had a big pop smash – so he will need fans to really connect with this highly personal album to earn his fifth No. 1 in a row.
IN THE MIX
Le Sserafim, Unforgiven (Source/YG Plus/Geffen): Korean girl group Le Sserafim made its first splash on the Billboard 200 in October 2022 with its No. 14-peaking Antifragile EP – several tracks of which also appear on its first studio album, Unforgiven. The set boasts 11 collectible CD editions — including exclusives for Target, Walmart and Weverse and comes with a standard set of bonus materials , plus randomized photocards – as well as a guest appearance from a chart-topper of yore: the legendary Nile Rodgers of Chic, on the title track.
Destroy Lonely, If Looks Could Kill (Opium/Interscope/Ingrooves): One of the few real success stories in hip-hop the past year has been the breakthrough of Atlanta rapper Destroy Lonely, whose guitar-heavy “If Looks Could Kill” became a viral sensation in March after taking off on TikTok. The artist’s debut album is named after that hit single, and features 26 guest-free tracks of woozy, grungy trap — which should make the set one of the week’s biggest new streaming successes.
Various Artists, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3: Awesome Mix Vol. 3 (Hollywood/Marvel Music): The third entry in the popular series of soundtracks the blockbuster Guardians of the Galaxy films sees its faux-mixtape format embracing Generation X-era hits from Radiohead, the Beastie Boys and The Replacements – while also keeping a little of its ‘70s core with classics from Heart, Rainbow and Bruce Springsteen. Currently unavailable on streaming, the set is expected to sell well – and can be purchased in a wide-release standard CD, a Walmart-exclusive CD with a poster packaged inside, a Target-exclusive CD variant with collectible “Guardians” branded trading cards, as well as in vinyl exclusives on Disney Music Emporium’s website, and at Target and Walmart.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Big Machine): You know how this works by now: Taylor Swift announces a new Taylor’s Version re-recording of one of her early albums, and fans stream the originals in anticipation. Speak Now had already enjoyed the chart bump that all of Swift’s studio albums received following the launch of her breathlessly anticipated Eras Tour – climbing to No. 58 on the most recent Billboard 200. Now, after Swift’s revelation that she plans to revisit her third album next, it’s poised for another big leap on the chart.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 12), after sets from a pair of BTS alums fall just short of matching the totals of Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 200 juggernaut, a 13-strong K-pop group looks to take their crack at it.
SEVENTEEN, 10th Mini Album ‘FML’ (Pledis/YG Plus): It’s a showdown we’ve seen time and time again on the Billboard 200 in recent years: a lengthy album from an artist who dominates streaming vs. a much shorter set from an artist who sells an exceptional amount of physical copies. Many of the albums from the latter category are from K-pop, and we have another entrant this week in the form of the 13-member boy band SEVENTEEN’s latest mini-album, FML.
The group has climbed closer to the Billboard 200’s apex with each successive release, including a pair of top 10 efforts last year with 4th Album: Face the Sun (No. 7 in June) and that set’s extended repackaged reissue, Sector 17 (No. 4 in August). Helping their sales numbers this time will be an array of different CDs — 14 total, including different exclusives for the act’s official webstore, Barnes & Noble, Target and the Weverse store; all with a standard set of items packaged inside and additional randomized items like postcards, mini posters, bookmarks and stickers. There are also 17 different alternative digital albums on their webstore, each with a different cover. Four of them have two bonus tracks – one instrumental version, one voice member from certain group members – that are different on each album. The remaining 13 alternative digital albums all have the standard tracklist, just with a different cover (one for each of the group members).
The bar for SEVENTEEN to hit No. 1 might be slightly lower than it was for BTS alums Jimin and Suga last month, as Morgan Wallen’s mighty One Thing at a Time slips below 150,000 equivalent album units for the first time in its eight weeks at No. 1 with its 149,000 May 6 chart (reflecting the tracking week ending April 27). If they can accomplish the feat, SEVENTEEN would become the second Korean pop group to top the Billboard 200 in 2023, following TOMORROW X TOGETHER, which did so in February with The Name Chapter: Temptation in February.
Jack Harlow, Jackman. (Generation Now/Atlantic): Louisville rapper Jack Harlow made the leap to pop stardom last year with his Billboard Hot 100-topping, Fergie-sampling crossover smash “First Class,” which was followed by the album Come Home the Kids Miss You. Though the star-studded affair – featuring appearances from A-listers Drake, Lil Wayne, Pharrell and Justin Timberlake – peaked at No. 3 on the Billboard 200, it was poorly received critically and failed to produce a second hit on the level of “First Class.”
Harlow went in a different direction for last week’s semi-surprise-released Jackman., announced just days earlier and titled after his full first name. The set includes just 10 tracks, with no guests or any big pop samples or interpolations that littered his prior album. The currently digital-only set – Harlow’s webstore also has a pre-sale of limited-edition green vinyl version available for August – may not quite do the kind of robust streaming numbers as its predecessor with no big features or previously released hits, but it is drawing much better reviews.
IN THE MIX
The National, First Two Pages of Frankenstein (4AD): Cincinnati-via-Brooklyn indie rock vets The National are regular visitors to the Billboard 200’s top 5, having reached there with four consecutive albums dating back to 2010’s High Violet, most recently with 2019’s No. 5-peaking I Am Easy to FInd. A not-so-secret weapon on the new First Two Pages of Frankenstein could help make it five straight: Taylor Swift, now a regular collaborator of band co-founder Aaron Dessner, who features on the album’s “The Alcott.”
Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Volume 46 (Rhino): Another season, another transmission from the live archives of rock’s most storied jam band. This three-disc set – available in a limited edition of 25,000 copies, as usual for Dave’s Picks – is taken from the Grateful Dead‘s 1972 gig at the Hollywood Palladium, with some copies also including a bonus fourth discs of songs from ‘72 shows in Roosevelt Stadium in New Jersey and Folson Field in Colorado.
Illenium, Illenium (Warner): The star EDM DJ-producer is better known for his impressive live show – which he’s taking to arenas and stadiums this summer – but Illenium has also had three Billboard 200-charting albums, with the most recent (2021’s Fallen Embers) peaking at No. 49. His new self-titled album is more rock-influenced, and the chart returns so far have been positive, with all seven of its pre-release advance tracks reaching the top 20 of Billboard’s Hot Dance/Electronic Songs chart.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 5), it’s the sales of Agust D’s debut LP vs. the streams for Morgan Wallen’s 36-track juggernaut in a race for the Billboard 200 crown.
Agust D, D Day (Big Hit): Just a few weeks ago, the top debut on the Billboard 200 came from a BTS alum: Jimin, who debuted atop the Billboard Hot 100 with his single “Like Crazy” and came one spot from doing the same on the Billboard 200 with the album FACE. This week, the biggest new release may again come from the K-pop superstars’ ranks, as Suga releases his much-anticipated first LP, D-Day, under his Agust D alias.
The album is expected to sell well – helped by a variety of physical releases, which like FACE, came out the same day as the album’s digital release. (Recent album releases from BTS groupmates RM and J-Hope initially arrived as digital-only.) D-Day is available as multiple different collectible CDs (including exclusive editions for Target, Walmart and the Weverse store) — once again with both standard elements (including a sticker, postcard and poster) and randomized photo cards — plus four digital albums (one standard, plus three alternative cover editions sold in Agust D’s official webstore).
The 10-track album will have to sell very well to compete with the continued streaming dominance of Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – which posted 166,000 equivalent album units in its seventh week at No. 1, boosted by sales of a new vinyl edition of the 36-track album. But if D-Day can get in range of FACE’s first-week numbers (164,000 units), it could be Wallen’s Time to vacate the top spot.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Don’t Try This at Home (Never Broke Again/Motown/UMG): He’s back. Three months after his first album of 2022, January’s I Rest My Case, YoungBoy returns with his second full-length release for Motown, Don’t Try This at Home. There’s no physical release yet for the 33-track set, but the tracklist is his longest yet, and features big-name features from Nicki Minaj, Post Malone, The Kid LAROI and Mariah the Scientist — which may help the new album pass the somewhat underwhelming No. 9 Billboard 200 peak for I Rest My Case earlier this year.
Taylor Swift, Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions (Republic): Taylor Swift already has two albums in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 this week with 2022’s Midnights and 2019’s Lover, and she may add another next week with the Record Store Day-only Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions. The vinyl RSD release of the 17-track set — consisting of acoustic live performances of the tracks from Swift’s Grammy-winning Folklore album, previously featured in Swift’s Disney+ special of the same name and available to purchase digitally as part of the Folklore deluxe edition — is limited to 75,000 copies, but that alone would likely be enough to secure a debut in the top 10 if it to sells out, as anything Swift-related seems to do in 2023. (Other titles by the big-name likes of Pearl Jam, Elton John and The 1975 may also factor on the chart next week.)
In the Mix
Mac DeMarco, One Wayne G (Mac’s Record Label): There aren’t many albums on the Billboard 200 you could fall asleep listening to and still be hearing when you wake up the next morning – but Mac DeMarco’s nine-and-a-half hour (!!) new collection is certainly one. The epic set, mostly consisting of instrumentals and demos, is unsurprisingly unavailable for physical release and is probably unlikely to produce a breakout hit. But with 199 tracks, its streaming numbers should still be enough to make it a factor on the Billboard 200 next week.
Twenty One Pilots, MTV Unplugged (Fueled by Ramen): Alt-pop duo Twenty One Pilots are no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200, which they topped with 2015’s Blurryface and revisiting the top three with follow-ups Trench (2018) and Scaled and Icy (2021). The outfit might not get quite so high with MTV Unplugged, but the duo has maintained a devout fanbase since their mid-’10s breakthrough and may see good sales for the CD and LP-released set.
Everything But the Girl, Fuse (Buzzin’ Fly/Virgin): It’s been nearly a quarter-century since the last album from genre-bending U.K. duo Everything But the Girl, who notched a trio of acclaimed albums in the top half of the Billboard 200 in the ‘90s — most recently 1999’s No. 65-peaking Temperamental. This month’s Fuse looks to make it four in a row, with a variety of vinyl and CD options for purchase, and reviews as strong as the pair received at their commercial peak three decades ago.
