State Champ Radio The Contenders
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Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 11), SZA’s seven-week Billboard 200 No. 1 SOS faces new competition from best-selling K-pop stars TOMORROW X TOGETHER and career-reinventing albums from Sam Smith and Lil Yachty.
TOMORROW X TOGETHER, The Name Chapter: Temptation (Big Hit/Republic): A five-song EP from a Korean pop group that’s yet to notch a Billboard Hot 100 hit might seem like an unlikely challenger to SZA’s continued Billboard 200 domination. But don’t underestimate the selling power of TOMORROW X TOGETHER, the rising quintet that’s already reached the top five of the Billboard 200 albums chart twice this decade (with 2021 LP The Chaos Chapter: Freeze and 2022 EP Minisode 2: Thursday’s Child), thanks a devoted fanbase willing to spend on physical albums – sometimes in multiple variants.
Plenty of those variants are available this week for new EP The Name Chapter: Temptation, with 14 collectible deluxe CD packages — including exclusive versions for Barnes & Noble, Target and the group’s Weverse webstore, and a signed version via its own official U.S. webstore. Interest in those physical copies appears to still be growing: TXT’s label, Big Hit, reported over 2 million pre-orders worldwide for the new EP.
Sam Smith, Gloria (Capitol): Arguably the most-anticipated major pop release of January arrived last Friday (Jan. 27) with longtime top 40 fixture Sam Smith’s Gloria. The album is Smith’s first since 2020’s Love Goes, and comes off the back of the first Hot 100 No. 1 hit of their career in the Kim Petras collab “Unholy.” With massive buzz-building on TikTok, a harder-edged sound and more sexually suggestive lyrics, the single appeared to successfully modernize Smith for the 2020s.
While the ongoing success of “Unholy” will give Gloria a helpful head start on streaming, whether it will lead the album to a greater chart finish than the No. 5-peaking Love Goes remains to be seen. By mid-week, the only Gloria tracks remaining on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart were “Unholy” and the New Music Friday-leading Calvin Harris and Jessie Reyez collab “I’m Not Here to Make Friends,” while the full set ranks fifth on the iTunes albums sales chart. The album is also available in three vinyl variants — with one a Target exclusive (also available in CD) with two bonus tracks – and in a signed CD via Smith’s webstore.
Lil Yachty, Let’s Start Here (Concrete/Quality Control/Motown): While Atlanta rap star Lil Yachty is coming off his biggest hit of the 2020s in the TikTok-powered “Poland,” the buzzing trap of that 83-second single is hardly indicative of the psychedelic space rock found on his fifth album, Let’s Start Here. The sonic left turn, featuring contributions from renowned alternative artists like Mac DeMarco, Alex G and Foushée, has drawn mixed reviews but heavy online discussion, and may challenge for Yachty’s first top 10 album on the Billboard 200 since 2018’s Lil Boat 2.
IN THE MIX
The Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks, Vol. 45 (Rhino): The latest in the legendary jam band’s Dave’s Picks series, which features live shows selected by Grateful Dead archivist David Lemieux, features a two-date 1977 stop at the Paramount Theater in Portland, Ore. Each of the last five Dave’s Picks have charted in the Nos. 11-15 range on the Billboard 200 and the Dead are still looking for their first top 10 on the chart since In the Dark hit No. 6 in 1987.
Elle King, Come Get Your Wife (RCA): A breakout star in the mid-’10s for jaunty rock crossover hit “Ex’s and Oh’s,” singer-songwriter Elle King decamped to Nashville and embraced country with third album, Come Get Your Wife. So far, so good for King: 2021 Miranda Lambert collab “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home),” found on Wife, topped Billboard’s Country Airplay chart and became her first Hot 100 top 40 hit since “Ex’s.”
Tyler Hubbard, Tyler Hubbard (Hubbard House/EMI): As one-half of Florida Georgia Line, Tyler Hubbard was a regular visitor to the top of Billboard’s country charts, and topped the Billboard 200 with the duo’s 2014 sophomore album, Anything Goes. He didn’t need long into his solo career to establish his own chart-topping prowess: His first unaccompanied single, “5 Foot 9,” featured on his self-titled solo debut album, bested Country Airplay last November.
Bob Dylan, Fragments – Time Out of Mind Sessions (1996-1997) (Legacy Records): The Bootleg Series Vol. 17: With the 25th anniversary approaching of Bob Dylan’s album of the year win for Time Out of Mind at the ’98 Grammys, his latest Bootleg Series installment revisits that comeback effort with a remix of the original set and bonus outtakes, alternate versions and live cuts. The set, which originally peaked at No. 10 on the Billboard 200 in 1997, comes in two-CD and five-CD editions, as well as four-LP and 10-LP box sets.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 4), SZA’s SOS remains in the driver’s seat on the Billboard 200 albums chart, but runs into new albums by country hitmaker HARDY, prolific rapper Trippie Redd and rock revivalists Måneskin.
HARDY, The Mockingbird & The Crow (Big Loud). Few country radio fixtures know as much about how to succeed in an era dominated by hip-hop- and streaming as Michael Wilson Hardy. The genre-blending singer-songwriter has collaborated with countless artists, released several mixtapes, and generally been as prolific as any popular rapper over the past half-decade – while remaining a steady chart presence, with Hot 100 top 40 hits in the past year alongside Breland and Dierks Bentley (“Beers on Me”) and Lainey Wilson (“Wait in the Truck.”)
The latter single can be found on HARDY’s 17-track The Mockingbird & The Crow set, released last Friday (Jan. 27), as part of the album’s country-oriented A-side – with its second half taking on a hard rock bent. The album appears to be selling well digitally, leading the iTunes albums chart for most of the week. If it does claim the Billboard 200’s No. 1 position, it would be the first country album to do so since Dangerous: The Double Album, the blockbuster 2021 chart-topper from Morgan Wallen – who, incidentally, is also featured on Mockingbird’s “Red.”
Trippie Redd, Mansion Musik (1400 Entertainment/10K Projects). One of the great volume shooters of hip-hop’s past five years, Trippie Redd returned from an unusually lengthy two-year album break last week with the 25-track Mansion Musik. The set consists entirely of previously unreleased material, and is predictably loaded with A-list guests, including Future, Lil Baby, Travis Scott, Lil Durk, and even the late Juice WRLD — who appears on “Knight Crawler,” which led Spotify’s most recent New Music Friday playlist. Each of Trippie’s past six full-length projects have reached the Billboard 200’s top five, and Mansion Musik should have a good chance to extend its streak to seven.
Måneskin, Rush (Epic/Sony). Italian fourpiece Måneskin parlayed a Eurovision win into global rock stardom in 2021 – boosted by TikTok-accelerated crossover success for a cover of The Four Seasons’ “Beggin’” and a series of incendiary live performances on U.S. television. About a year and a half later, the band has finally released its English-language debut album Rush, featuring their rock radio hit “Supermodel” and contributions from pop-rock super-writer-producers like Rami Yacoub, Mattman & Robin and Max Martin.
Måneskin are still relatively modest performers among big hitmakers when it comes to U.S. streaming, so their Billboard 200 performance will likely largely be dictated by sales. To that end, the quartet has released a variety of physical variants of Rush, with vinyl, CD and cassette versions, and a box set edition that collects all three formats, along with a poster and 64-page photobook. The group has also made old-fashioned record store promotional appearances during the album’s release week, including New York-area shops Rough Trade NYC and Looney Tunes.
IN THE MIX
Ice Spice, Like…? (10K Projects/Capitol): One of the most buzzed-about new rappers of 2022 arrives with her first EP, named after her “Like..?” mini-catchphrase. The six-track set includes Ice Spice‘s internet-conquering breakout tracks “Munch (Feelin’ U)” and “Bikini Bottom,” as well as the new, Lil Tjay-featuring “Gangsta Boo,” and the currently ascending TikTok favorite “In Ha Mood.”
Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young, Déjà Vu (Atlantic): Following the death of ‘60s rock legend David Crosby, the enduring material he was involved with as part of The Byrds and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young have naturally surged in sales and streams. The biggest beneficiary so far appears to be CSNY’s 1970 classic Déjà Vu, featuring signature songs like “Teach Your Children,” “Our House” and “Helpless” — though the latter is one of several Déjà Vu tracks not currently available on Spotify, due to songwriter Neil Young’s continued protests of the streaming service.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Jan. 28), SZA’s SOS is expected to easily fend off challengers on the Billboard 200, but there will be more of a contest to reach the top of the Billboard Hot 100, where she faces stiff competition from Taylor Swift, Miley Cyrus and Shakira & Bizarrap as she seeks her first No. 1.
SZA, “Kill Bill” (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA): As SZA’s SOS spends its fifth week atop the Billboard 200, her biggest single yet climbs to a new peak of No. 2 on the Hot 100 (dated Jan. 21) this week. The melancholy (and murderous) “Kill Bill” has ruled Billboard’s Streaming Songs chart for three weeks now, and it’s now also gaining at radio, debuting this week at No. 24 on Pop Airplay and No. 48 on R&B/Hip-Hop Songs Airplay.
However, “Bill” has yet to appear on the 50-position all-genre Radio Songs listing, which Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero” — the eight-week Hot 100 No. 1 currently keeping SZA from the top spot — has ruled for four weeks. (Still, “Bill” is just below the survey this week and likely to debut next week.) Also to help get the breakout hit over the top and score the first Hot 100 No. 1 of her career, SZA released a new four-song “Kill Bill” pack to streaming services last Friday (Jan. 13), adding sped-up, instrumental and a cappella versions to the original — all of which are currently for sale on her website, and discounted to 69 cents.
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (Columbia): Whether or not “Bill” overtakes “Anti-Hero” this week, it could face entirely new roadblocks in a pair of much-hyped singles that came out last week. The bigger of those is likely “Flowers,” Friday’s first taste of veteran pop star Miley Cyrus’ upcoming Endless Summer Vacation album that’s due in March. Produced by regular Harry Styles collaborators Kid Harpoon and Tyler Johnson, the mid-tempo kiss-off immediately won fans for its sunny pop-rock groove, self-reliant message and Bruno Mars-echoing (possibly Liam Hemsworth-referencing?) chorus.
After the song went viral on TikTok over the weekend, it bounded to the top of both the Spotify and Apple Music daily charts, as well as the iTunes song sales chart — and top 40 has also quickly seized onto the track, with a splashy debut sure to come on Radio Songs next week. It’s the kind of multi-platform dominance that has largely eluded Cyrus, despite her continued household-name status, over the past decade; she hasn’t reached higher than No. 8 on the Hot 100 (as an added performer to The Kid LAROI’s “Without You” remix in 2021) since she topped the chart in 2013 with “Wrecking Ball,” her sole No. 1 so far.
But Cyrus’ timing is right with “Flowers” — released last Thursday, Jan. 12 at 7 p.m. EST, five hours ahead of the tracking week for next week’s Hot 100. She’s taking advantage of an early-year pop landscape that’s relatively light on impactful new releases, as evidenced by the Hot 100’s top 40 currently being overrun by songs from 2022 (or even longer ago). But just as importantly, she’s riding positive momentum from her popular and well-received Miley’s New Year’s Eve Party NBC special, in which she dueted on old hits with godmother Dolly Parton and teased new music to come, with her full album announcement arriving less than a week later. It all adds up to Cyrus having her best shot in 10 years at a return trip to No. 1 next week.
Bizarrap & Shakira, “Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53” (Dale Play): Before “Flowers” arrived, the buzziest debut of last week was easily Shakira’s incendiary team-up with in-demand Argentine DJ/producer Bizarrap. The propulsive electro-pop banger lit up the internet upon its release last Wednesday (Jan. 11, at 7 p.m. ET), particularly for its shots-fired lyrics aimed directly at the superstar’s footballer ex-husband Gerard Piqué. “Vol. 53” quickly surged to No. 1 on YouTube’s Trending chart, and also reached the top 10 and top 20 on the daily Spotify and iTunes U.S. charts, respectively.
Despite coming out six days into the prior tracking week, “Vol. 53” already debuts on several Billboard charts this week, including an impressive No. 12 bow on the Global 200. It misses out on the Hot 100, but with its streaming momentum staying strong, it’s certain to crash the chart next week. However, with stateside radio not yet embracing the Spanish-language track as much as it has “Flowers” and “Kill Bill,” it may end up lagging behind those front-runners.
Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (Republic): While the threats to its reign are numerous, you can’t count out Taylor Swift and her incumbent eight-week No. 1. Swift and her team have made all the right moves to extend the Midnights single’s reign to career-best lengths, including releasing a number of remixes for the track for sale exclusively on her website — and, most recently, discounting those remixes to 69 cents from last Monday to Thursday (Jan. 9-12). Does she have any last-second tricks up her sleeve for this chart week?
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 14): SZA’s SOS continues to dominate, while YoungBoy Never Broke Again makes a quick return after a busy 2022 and a half-decade-old BTS album debuts on vinyl.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, I Rest My Case (Motown/Never Broke Again): After an absurdly prolific 2022 that included seven full-length releases – two collaborative albums, four mixtapes and one official album – star rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again returns, just two weeks into 2023, with his fifth solo studio album, I Rest My Case. The 19-track set is his first release on his new Motown label, after completing his deal with Atlantic in 2022.
From the early returns, YoungBoy’s previous productivity may be working against him, since the album’s tracks have not taken over the daily DSP charts like past YoungBoy solo albums, the last three of which hit the Billboard 200’s top two. Case will also not be helped by any big-name guests, since the album has no features on its 11 tracks. It will have its work cut out for it getting YoungBoy back to the chart’s top five, let alone threatening the four-week reign of SZA’s SOS blockbuster, which shows little sign of slowing down in its fifth week.
BTS, Love Yourself: Her (Big Hit/Universal): The Love Yourself: Her EP release marked a big U.S. breakthrough for K-Pop superstars BTS back in 2017, reaching the Billboard 200’s top 10 and spawning their first two Billboard Hot 100 hits in “DNA” and “Mic Drop.” The EP is likely to return to the chart’s top tier after making its physical debut on vinyl — the septet’s first-ever release on the format — along with a package that includes seven photo cards (one for each member), two posters, a sticker and a bookmark.
French Montana & DJ Drama, Coke Boys 6 (Coke Boys): Outside of YoungBoy, few hip-hop artists were as prolific on the 2022 charts as DJ Drama, who notched hit albums alongside Jeezy, Snoop Dogg and several other big-name rappers. He’s back this week with veteran New York hitmaker French Montana, for the latest installment in the latter’s signature Coke Boys series. CB6 boasts 20 tracks and a wide variety of big-name guests, including fellow rap stars Kodak Black, Nav and A$AP Rocky, and the set already has its own Money Heist Edition deluxe reissue, adding an extra nine tracks to the total.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 14): SZA’s SOS kicks off 2023 as the album still to beat, while sets from ATEEZ and Fuerza Regida freshen up the chart.
SZA, S.O.S. (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA). After five years, SZA’s second album had a blockbuster No. 1 debut in December, with 318,000 equivalent album units. The album, which built on SZA’s accelerating momentum over that layover period (including viral solo hits and appearances on radio smashes from Kendrick Lamar and Doja Cat), is still putting up huge numbers in early 2023, just spending its third week at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with over 100,000 units. SOS seems likely to spend winter 2023 how Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti spent last summer and Taylor Swift’s Midnights spent last autumn – as the chart’s default No. 1 for any week where there isn’t a major new release to depose it.
When might that first major new release come? Star rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again announced this week that his I Rest My Case album would come out Jan. 6, as the first release from his new Motown home – though releasing seven full-length projects in 2022 seems to have slowed his chart momentum. Still, 2022’s first two major releases (Gunna’s DS4ever and The Weeknd’s Dawn FM, both released Jan. 7) were both announced mere days before release, so the first big bow of 2023 may well be an album we don’t know about yet.
ATEEZ, Spin Off: From the Witness (KQ Entertainment/RCA) Eight-member K-pop boy band ATEEZ scored a major chart breakthrough last summer with The World EP.1: Movement, which debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200. New set Spin Off: From the Witness may follow Movement to the chart’s top tier – boosted, of course, by at least six different collectible CD variants (including one signed by the group), each containing a set of standard branded paper goods and randomly chosen items (like photocards and posters).
Fuerza Regida, Sigan Hablando (Rancho Humilde/Street Mob). Regional Mexican quintet Fuerza Regida landed their first Billboard Hot 100 hit this week with the TikTok-boosted Grupo Frontera collab “Bebe Dame,” which debuts at No. 91. That song is found on the group’s latest album, Sigan Hablando (released Dec. 28), which should ride the “Bebe” bump to their first entry on the Billboard 200 – though the group has already reached the Top Latin Albums chart five times, and spent 18 weeks atop the Regional Mexican Albums chart in 2022 with their Del Barrio Hasta Aqui set.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 24): Just before the last Christmas push, a final ‘S.O.S.’ from the pop world aims to sleigh the competition.
SZA, S.O.S. (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA). It’s been five years and countless false starts since R&B superstar SZA dropped her massively influential full-length debut Ctrl. Early signs from the release of her second album S.O.S. indicate that the fans have stuck around: the set dominated the daily Spotify and Apple Music charts over the weekend, while drawing reviews strong enough to make a lot of early December year-end lists look premature.
With no physical release on the schedule, the vast majority of the album’s first-week numbers will mostly come from streaming. But with 23 tracks, including a trio of proven singles in Billboard Hot 100 top 20 hits “Good Days,” “I Hate U’ and “Shirt,” plus guest appearances from Travis Scott and Phoebe Bridgers, it should still end up scoring one of the late year’s strongest debuts.
A Boogie Wit da Hoodie, Me vs. Myself (Highbridge the Label/Atlantic). A Boogie Wit da Hoodie was one of the most prolific artists on the Billboard charts at the turn of the decade, with a couple dozen Hot 100 hits and a Billboard 200 No. 1 album in 2018’s Hoodie SZN. The past two years haven’t been as kind commercially, but the artist born Artist Dubose looks to reverse that trend with the release of fourth studio album Me vs. Myself.
Me vs. Myself will also need to lean on streaming , since it, too, has no physical version and A Boogie has never sold much music – Hoodie SZN was the first album to top the Billboard 200 with sales of under 1,000 copies. But MvM will also get a boost from its 22-song tracklist, with features from fellow streaming stars Kodak Black, Lil Durk, Roddy Ricch.
Anuel AA, LLNM2 (Real Hasta la Muerte/Sony Latin). As with SZA and A Boogie, Latin trap hitmaker Anuel AA’s latest effort arrives without a physical product – but it has a tracklist expansive enough to make both S.O.S. and Me vs. Myself look like EPs by comparison. LLMN2 (short for “Las Leyendas Nunca Mueren 2,” or “Legends Never Die 2”) runs a bountiful 33 tracks, with big-name guests from both reggaetón (Nicky Jam, Jowell & Randy, Zion) and hip-hop (DaBaby, Lil Durk, Kodak Black).
Anuel’s hit the Billboard 200 top 10 twice already, with 2020’s Emmanuel (No. 8) and 2021’s Ozuna teamup Los Dioses (No. 10), but 2021’s first Las Leyendas Nunca Mueren release peaked at No. 30. That album had just 16 tracks, so maybe going with the volume-shooter approach for its sequel will net him the top 10 hat trick.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 17): As holiday titles and heavy hitters vie for the top of the December charts, new albums from a star hip-hop producer and a couple of K-pop hitmakers join in the merriment.
Metro Boomin, Heroes & Villains (Boominati Worldwide/Republic): You might have thought the big album releases were starting to wind down for 2022, but Metro Boomin begs to differ. The Atlanta-via-St. Louis producer has been one of the biggest behind-the-scenes names in hip-hop for a decade, and new album Heroes & Villains shows off his Rolodex, with enough star collaborators — Future, Young Thug, Travis Scott, The Weeknd, 21 Savage, Gunna, even narrator Morgan Freeman — to justify an accompanying short film.
After dominating streaming charts on Spotify and Apple Music over the weekend, the set appears due for a big debut on the Billboard 200 — perhaps even one to challenge the producer’s Republic label-mate Taylor Swift and her five-week No. 1 Midnights for the chart’s top spot. (He hit No. 1 in 2020, with 21 Savage full-length team up Savage Mode II .) Though its consumption is mostly digital, Metro did release a CD version of Heroes & Villains to select physical retailers — and also debuted a deluxe “Heroes Version” of the album to streamers and digital retail on Monday, adding instrumental versions of each track.
RM, Indigo (Big Hit): Singer/songwriter/rapper RM released his solo debut, Indigo, on Friday, a varied album that features marquee R&B names Erykah Badu and Anderson .Paak, as well as veteran Korean hitmakers Tablo and Park Ji-yoon. BTS, the world-conquering group which RM previously achieved stardom with, scored five No. 1 albums over the past half-decade, from 2018’s Love Yourself: Tear to this June’s Proof.
His chart bow for Indigo this week will have to come without help from a physical release, as the set’s CD packages — which often move big numbers for Korea’s biggest pop acts — are not due until Dec. 16. Earlier this year, RM’s bandmate J-Hope entered the Billboard 200 at No. 17 with his own solo album debut Jack in the Box, also only from the support of a streaming and digital retail version of his album. (Jack has yet to be released on CD in the U.S.)
ITZY, Cheshire (JYP Entertainment/Dreamus/Republic): Korean pop quintet ITZY hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 for the first time in July with their sixth EP Checkmate. This week, they aim to return to the top tier with sixth EP, Cheshire, featuring advance English-language single “Boys Like You” — though technically it’s already in its second week of release, since the streaming and digital retail version of the set dropped last Wednesday (Nov. 30).
Cheshire’s chart performance will depend mostly on sales of its physical editions, which went on sale Friday. Like many K-pop releases, the CD came out in collectible deluxe packages (13 total, including versions exclusive to Barnes & Noble, Target and the group’s official webstore), each with a standard set of items and randomized elements (such as photocards and a poster).
IN THE MIX
Backstreet Boys, A Very Backstreet Christmas (K-BAHN/BMG): The classic boy band’s first holiday set made its Billboard 200 debut back in October, but should surge on the chart this week following its Dec. 2 vinyl debut (and the approaching season). It’s only reached No. 17 so far, making this week its best chance of keeping alive Backstreet Boys‘ double-digit streak of consecutive top 10 albums.
Arcangel, Sr. Santos (Rimas Entertainment): Veteran reggaetón and Latin trap hitmaker Arcangel made a splashy return last Wednesday alongside perhaps the biggest male pop star on the planet with the Bad Bunny collab “La Jumpa.” That song should give Sr. Santos, the single’s 18-track parent album released on Friday — which also features appearances from Myke Towers, De La Ghetto and Bizarrap — a nice head start in consumption for this week.
Ivan Cornejo, Dañado (Manzana Records): Regional Mexican star Ivan Cornejo charted at No. 149 on the Billboard 200 in June with sophomore set Dañado, which has since climbed as high as No. 64 thanks to its stellar streaming performance. The seven-track mini-album received a deluxe reissue on Friday, with three new bonus tracks, which should give it a big boost from its current chart perch of No. 145.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 10): Tis the season for holiday albums to invade the top of the charts, but albums from Taylor Swift, Drake and 21 Savage, and Bad Bunny could push back the tree-lighting for a week.
Michael Bublé, Christmas (143/Reprise): It’s beginning to look a lot like Michael Bublé season on the Billboard 200 once again. The 21st century crooner peaks his head into the chart’s top tier this week with his 2011 Christmas set, which climbs 19-10 on the listing dated Dec. 3, and should continue its ascent in the weeks to come.
Christmas, featuring Bublé’s velvety versions of holiday standards like “Jingle Bells,” “Santa Claus Is Coming to Town,” and “White Christmas” (the latter a duet with Shania Twain), is no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200: The album spent five weeks at No. 1 across 2011 and 2012, and finished No. 2 on the Year-End Billboard 200 for 2012, behind Adele’s 21. Last holiday season, Adele was once again the Grinch who stole the Christmas No. 1, as Bublé’s album rose to No. 2 on the Billboard 200 dated Jan. 1, 2022, after her 30.
This year Bublé will face a different challenger: Taylor Swift’s Midnights, which has reigned on the Billboard 200 for four of the past five weeks, posting equivalent album units in the six digits each frame. Time will tell if the Christmas spirit is strong enough to prevail. (Last holiday season, Christmas‘ biggest one-week unit sum was 77,000.)
Mariah Carey, Merry Christmas (Columbia): No artist of the last 30 years is as synonymous with the holiday season as Mariah Carey. However, while Carey’s Billboard Hot 100 dominance has become an annual event – her perennial “All I Want for Christmas Is You” has bested the chart each of the last three holiday seasons, ruling for a combined eight weeks – she has yet to top the Billboard 200 with that single’s parent album.
Merry Christmas climbed as high as No. 3 when it came out in 1994 – Kenny G’s less enduring seasonal set Miracles: The Holiday Album ruled the Dec. 17 chart – but has yet to return to a higher perch than No. 4, which it reached on the chart dated Jan. 4, 2020. (The album’s sequel, Merry Christmas II You, also reached No. 4 upon its Nov. 2010 release.) This week, Merry Christmas jumps 40-19 — still behind Bublé, but you can never count out the Queen of Christmas.
Vince Guaraldi Trio, A Charlie Brown Christmas Soundtrack (Fantasy): It’s not all seasonal pop standards on the Billboard 200: The sentimental pull of jazz pianist Vince Guaraldi’s 1965 soundtrack to the classic A Charlie Brown Christmas special spans generations, and makes the set an annual chart contender in the streaming era. The album hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 for the first time two holiday seasons ago, on the chart dated Jan. 2, 2021, then reached a new peak of No. 6 on the Jan. 1 chart this year. Now it’s once again on the rise, climbing from No. 43 to No. 17 on this week’s chart.
IN THE MIX
Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, Live at the Fillmore 1997 (Warner): This new 58-track live set from Rock and Roll Hall of Famers Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, which spans the group’s 20-night residency at the storied San Francisco venue a quarter-century ago and is available in 2-CD and 3-LP regular editions, 4-CD and 6-LP deluxe editions, plus a limited edition 6xLP Uber Deluxe — should also make a sizeable debut.
Quando Rondo and YoungBoy Never Broke Again, 3860 (Quando Rondo, LLC/Never Broke Again/Atlantic): It’s been five whole weeks since we last covered YoungBoy Never Broke Again in The Contenders, but before the holidays get into full swing, he’s got one more set to sneak into his already project-strewn 2022. This time, it’s a collaborative mixtape with fellow southern rapper Quando Rondo, who is signed to YoungBoy’s label (called Never Broke Again), and takes center stage on the release, with solo showcases on five of its 16 tracks.
Brockhampton, TM (Question Everything/RCA): Brockhampton pulled double duty last week with a pair of farewell releases, The Family and TM. The former set debuted at No. 15 on the most recent Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 3), but the latter was nowhere to be found – a state of affairs that should change this week, as sales of signed CDs available on the band’s website will likely boost the set’s totals to charting levels.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 3): The most successful original album in Billboard 200 history celebrates its 40th anniversary by returning to the chart’s upper tier, while a pair of new sets from Brockhampton could send the group off with a bang.
Michael Jackson, Thriller (Epic): Just a couple weeks ago, we were talking about Michael Jackson‘s Thriller as a factor on the Billboard 200 following its annual Halloween bump – and now, the set may once again be a threat for the chart’s top tier, thanks to a new reissue celebrating the set’s 40th anniversary. The album is available in limited-edition single LP, or as part of a two-CD set that includes a disc of unreleased demos and bonus material.
This revival is practically unheard of – except for Thriller, which has repeatedly made chart history, including with a record 37 nonconsecutive weeks atop the Billboard 200 from 1982 to 1984. Still, it will face stiff competition from well-performing incumbents by Taylor Swift, Drake and 21 Savage, and Bad Bunny.
Brockhampton, The Family and TM (Question Everything/RCA): After announcing its impending breakup in January, rap collective and “boy band” Brockhampton teased fans with the prospect of a final album out before the end of the year. The Family came out last Thursday (Nov. 17), followed the next day by TM – a two-set farewell to the group’s fans.
Brockhampton has always sold well, thanks to its devoted fan base, and it is offering box sets of The Family and signed copies of TM on its web site. The idea is to follow the success of 2018’s Iradescence, which became the group’s first (and to date, only) album to top the Billboard 200.
Disturbed, Divisive (Reprise): They might not be the most obvious chart conquerors, but few artists have been as consistently successful on the Billboard 200 this century as mainstream rock stalwarts Disturbed. From 2002 to 2015, they topped the chart with five consecutive albums, a streak finally snapped in 2018 with the No. 4 peak of their Evolution.
The Chicago band will look to start a new chart-topping run with this month’s Divisive, its first new album since 2018, which frontman David Draiman calls a “blisteringly angry” set inspired by the tumultuous time. The early response on radio has been positive, with lead single “Hey You” becoming Disturbed’s 11th single to top the Mainstream Rock Airplay chart.
IN THE MIX
Rod Wave, Jupiter’s Diary: 7 Day Theory (Alamo): Florida rapper Rod Wave already topped the BIllboard 200 once in 2022, with August’s Beautiful Mind, thanks to robust streaming numbers from his devoted online following. Fans will have fewer tracks to stream on this month’s Jupiter’s Diary, since the EP only runs a scant eight tracks, including the previously released “Break My Heart.”
Roddy Ricch, Feed the Streets III (Bird Vision/Atlantic): Roddy Ricch’s latest mixtape is the third installment of his Feed the Streets series, but his first since breaking through on the national stage with 2019’s Please Excuse Me for Being Anti-Social and the 2020 11-week Hot 100 No. 1 “The Box.” The set features appearances from Lil Durk and Ty Dolla $ign, and a pair of R&B/Hip-Hop Songs-charting advance tracks in “Stop Breathing” and “Aston Martin Truck.”
Nickelback, Get Rollin’ (Nickelback II Productions/BMG): Disturbed aren’t the only hard rock fixtures back this week: Canadian rockers Nickelback return with its first album in five years, the heavier Get Rollin’. The band has seen its commercial fortunes fade since their ‘00s heyday, but it still has an active run of seven consecutive top 10-peaking albums on the Billboard 200, most recently the 2017 No. 5 Feed the Machine.
Dolly Parton, Diamonds & Rhinestones (Sony Music Entertainment): The recently enshrined Rock and Roll Hall of Famer takes a well-earned victory lap this month with the new greatest hits set Diamonds & Rhinestones. The 23-track collection of Dolly Parton’s personal favorites spans from 1971 breakthrough “Coat of My Colors” to 2020’s “Faith” collab with dance artists Gallantis and Mr. Probz, and is available on streaming, CD and double-LP vinyl.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Nov. 26): Two of the most historic names in rap and rock compete with a solo Directioner, as each of them try to knock Taylor Swift’s Midnights and Drake and 21 Savage’s Her Loss out of the top two spots.
Louis Tomlinson, Faith in the Future (BMG): Back in early 2020, Louis Tomlinson became the last of the five One Direction alums to release a solo album with the No. 9-peaking Walls. He seems likely to return to the top 10 next week with sophomore set Faith in the Future, released last Friday (Nov. 11), which Tomlinson recently described to Billboard as “the record I always wanted to make.”
Helping Tomlinson’s sales total for the new album will be a wide variety of physical options for sale: 10 vinyl variants (including a signed one), a Newbury Comics-exclusive CD with a signed insert, a Target-exclusive CD, a zine CD deluxe package, and even three cassettes.
Bruce Springsteen, Only the Strong Survive (Columbia): Only a handful of artists in history have visited the top of the Billboard 200 more often than The Boss, who has 11 No. 1 albums ranging from 1980’s The River to 2014’s High Hopes. Can he get there again with a new set of covers? He’ll try with Only the Strong Survive, which honors what Springsteen calls “the great American songbook of the ’60s and ’70s,” including classics made famous by Jerry Butler, Ben E. King and The Temptations.
He almost did once already. We Shall Overcome: The Seeger Sessions, a tribute to folk legend Pete Seeger, peaked at No. 3 in 2006 — and every album of newly recorded studio material released by Springsteen so far this century has reached the chart’s top three.
Nas, King’s Disease III (Mass Appeal): Nas received acclaim for the first two installments of his King’s Disease series, both recorded with producer Hit-Boy — including a pair of top five entries on the Billboard 200 and a Grammy nomination each for best rap album, with the first set even giving the rapper his first Grammy win in 2019.
We’ll need to wait another year to find out if King’s Disease III can make it three-for-three with the Grammy recognition, but next week we’ll see if it can match the chart success of the first two. But unlike the first two sets, which boasted guest appearances from the starry likes of Lil Durk, Eminem and Ms. Lauryn Hill, King’s Disease III includes no big features.
In the Mix
GloRilla, Anyways, Life’s Great… (CMG/Interscope): GloRilla is one of this year’s hip-hop breakout success stories, with a pair of vicious Hot 100 hits in HitKidd collab “F.N.F.” and Cardi B teamup “Tomorrow 2,” and now a Grammy nomination for the former in best rap performance. Both songs are featured on her debut EP, Anyways, Life’s Great…, along with seven other hard-hitting tracks to prime audiences for one of the most-anticipated rap debut albums of the next few years.
Rauw Alejandro, Saturno (Sony Music Latin/Duars): Few Latin pop stars outside of his “Party” collaborator Bad Bunny have been as visible on the Billboard charts recently as Rauw Alejandro, who scored his first Hot 100 top 40 hit last year with “Todo de Ti” and has kept the momentum going in 2022 with hits like “Desperados” and “Lokera.” It’s led to the release of his high-octane third studio album, Saturno, which features Alejandro motoring down the same dark, neon-lit sonic highways as The Weeknd’s last couple efforts.
Wizkid, More Love, Less Ego (Starboy/RCA): It’s been a slow and steady trek to global domination for Afrobeats star Wizkid, who topped the Hot 100 in 2016 as a guest on Drake’s “One Dance” and hit the top 10 as a lead artist in 2021 with the unstoppable “Essence.” The Nigerian star takes another victory lap with this month’s More Love, Less Ego, boosted by an internationally streamed live performance in London this Monday, hosted by Apple Music.
Guns N’ Roses, Use Your Illusion (UMG): Guns N’ Roses‘ dual album set of Use Your Illusion I & II debuted in the top two spots of the Billboard 200 back in October 1991 — with II inching past its counterpart. The two sets are combined on this month’s Use Your Illusion (Super Deluxe) box set of seven CDs and 12 LPs, including two early-’90s live shows, while CD and vinyl reissues of each of the individual UYI sets are also available for purchase.
