State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated March 23), Ariana Grande’s first album since 2020 may end up having the biggest immediate impact of the still-early calendar year.
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Ariana Grande, Eternal Sunshine (Republic): For a minute there, it looked like Ariana Grande might get lost in the shuffle a little bit. Not that one of the biggest pop stars of the last decade was ever gonna get totally overshadowed, but between the time she announced the release of Eternal Sunshine and when the album actually dropped last Friday (March 8), a whole lot of stuff happened elsewhere in pop’s A list. Taylor Swift, Beyoncé and Ye all also announced new albums for February and March, and the latter two scored Hot 100-topping breakout hits from them – both of which were much bigger in the culture than Grande’s own No. 1 lead single “Yes, And?,” which fell out of the top 10 in just its third week and has yet to return to the region.
But Grande is more of a full-albums artist now – arguably has been since at least Sweetener in 2018 – and so far, it seems that the positive reception to Eternal Sunshine from fans and critics is helping the album get off to an impressive start. The album of course debuted with all of its tracks littering the real-time charts on Spotify and Apple Music, but more impressive than its first day is how well the set is still doing four days later, with six of its songs still in the top 15 on Spotify and three in Apple — led by second single “We Can’t Be Friends,” which has risen since its release and has been duking it out with Ye & Co’s “Carnival” for the top spot on both charts.
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Grande’s very busy and visible weekend – following several years of mostly being out of the spotlight — helped her get the word out about Eternal Sunshine (and “We Can’t Be Friends” in particular) in its first few days of release. On Friday, she released the video for “Friends,” which drew attention for its co-star Evan Peters and for its take on multiple scenes from the classic 2004 surrealist rom-com Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind that the album gets its name from. Then on Saturday, she made her first appearance of the decade on Saturday Night Live, performing “Friends” and late-album highlight “Imperfect for You,” and also appearing in multiple sketches. Then on Sunday, she presented (alongside her Wicked co-star Cynthia Erivo) at the Oscars – not actively promoting her new set, but generally adding to the Weekend of Ariana with her presence on the weekend’s most-watched event.
Helping her first-week numbers even more than all the heavy cultural exposure should be the multiple variants in which the set is available for purchase. That includes six different vinyl LPs, five with alternate covers (including a Target-exclusive cover; the other four being exclusive to her webstore), as well as five different CDs, four with alternate covers, and one signed CD (all CDs being exclusive to her webstore). In addition, a “slightly deluxe” digital version of Sunshine dropped over the weekend with four additional tracks — all remixes and alternate versions of songs on the standard album, including the previously released Mariah Carey-featuring remix of “Yes, And?” and a version of “Supernatural” with her former “Dance to This” collaborator Troye Sivan.
As easily the biggest new release of the week, this should all be enough to secure Grande her sixth Billboard 200 No. 1 album in seven tries. (Dangerous Woman was her lone official LP to fall short, debuting at No. 2 behind Republic labelmate Drake’s Views in 2016.) Sunshine’s consistent performance on streaming throughout the week may also help nudge it past the 174,000 units that its predecessor, 2020’s Positions, posted in its first week, and will likely help it easily clear the 148,000 units moved by Ye & Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 1 in its February debut week, making it the best-performing album bow of the year thus far.
IN THE MIX
Judas Priest, Invincible Shield (Columbia/Epic): The week’s biggest non-Grande debut may come from metal legends and Rock and Roll Hall of Famers Judas Priest, who dropped the 19th album of their 50-plus-year career with Invincible Shield. The album will not likely have much of a presence on streaming, but should sell fairly well – helped by five vinyl variants, including an indie retailer exclusive red-color vinyl and an artist-webstore-only picture disc, as well as three CD editions, including exclusives for both Target and Amazon.
Norah Jones, Visions (Blue Note): Two decades ago, Norah Jones sold over a million copies in the first week of her sophomore album Feels Like Home, coming off the RIAA multi-platinum-certified success of her blockbuster Come Away With Me debut. Her commercial returns should be significantly more muted 20 years later for ninth album Visions, but the album has received strong reviews for its rawer, more rock-oriented sound, and is available for purchase in both three CD versions and four vinyl variants, including exclusives for indie retailers and for Barnes & Noble.
Bleachers, Bleachers (Bleachers Band Recording/Dirty Hit): Jack Antonoff has been a writer and producer on some of the biggest albums of the 2020s so far – particularly multiple from increasingly close artistic partner Taylor Swift – but has yet to see that type of crossover success translate to his own primary artistic project, Bleachers. He tries again this week with the self-titled Bleachers, the outfit’s first release since moving to U.K. indie label Dirty Hit (home of recent Antonoff collaborators The 1975) — which has at least seven different vinyl variants (in assorted colors, with alternative covers and four bonus tracks), as well as a signed CD, three CDs housed in deluxe packaging and a pair of deluxe CD boxed sets, both shaped like pizza boxes with a branded T-shirt inside.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Mar. 9), a star K-pop group aims to end Kanye West’s & Ty Dolla $ign’s two-week Vultures 1 reign on the albums chart.
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TWICE, With You-th (JYP/Republic): They’ve been one of Korean pop’s biggest acts for over a half-decade now, with best-selling albums in their home country, worldwide arena and stadium tours, and even a couple entries on the Billboard Hot 100. But nine-piece girl group TWICE has yet to secure a No. 1 album on the Billboard 200: They’ve reached the top three with each of their last three efforts, but have still not gotten any higher than No. 2, achieved last March with Ready to Be (held off from the apex by Morgan Wallen’s blockbuster One Thing at a Time set in its second week).
Next week, the runway may be clear for the nonet to finally take off to the spot. TWICE is the biggest-name contemporary outfit to release a new set last Friday (Feb. 23) — the EP With You-th — and with Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures fading in its third week, the bar for No. 1 should not be an unusually high one for the group to need to clear.
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With You-th‘s sales should be considerable, thanks in part to its availability in 14 different CD variants (including exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart and the act’s webstore, all with branded paper merch inside the packages as well as randomized merch), as well as three additional vinyl variants (all picture discs, one being a Target exclusive). Streaming numbers may not be quite as robust for the set, given its six-track length, but in a slower release week it may not need much activity there to secure the top debut.
French Montana, Mac & Cheese 5 (Coke Boys/gamma): It’s been a little while since French Montana was one of the biggest names in mainstream rap – his only appearance on the Billboard Hot 100 so far this decade came alongside Diddy, The Weeknd and 21 Savage on the No. 87-peaking “Another One of Me.” But he remains an industry fixture, as evidenced by the guest list on his new mixtape Mac & Cheese 5, which includes appearances from such A-list names as Rick Ross, Lil Baby, Lil Durk and even a pair of appearances from current Billboard 200-topper Kanye West.
He may provide some competition for his chart-topping collaborator on the 200 this week. Mac & Cheese 5 may not be a major streamer – the set will be helped by its features and its length (21 tracks in its standard edition, 22 in its deluxe, and a staggering 126-track Versions edition with clean, explicit, a cappella, instrumental, sped-up and slowed-down versions of each track), but it has yet to produce a real runaway hit there. It should sell pretty well, however — given its availability in three different CD and vinyl variants (all discounted to $5), as well as three signed-CD variants for $10 each, all for sale exclusively via Montana’s Coke Boys webstore.
Le Sserafim, Easy (Source/YG Plus/Geffen): TWICE aren’t the only major Korean girl group to have a new EP out this week: Hitmakers Le Sserafim are also back on the scene with their new five-track set Easy. Their set also should post good sales, boosted by a number of available variants – 14 CD versions, including exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target and Walmart, all with branded paper merch inside the packages as well as randomized merch. The quintet may also have something of a breakout hit from the set in its title track, which debuts at No. 73 on the Global 200 this week, and is still hanging around the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart.
IN THE MIX
Olivia Rodrigo, Guts (Geffen): Olivia Rodrigo’s acclaimed sophomore effort – our staff’s No. 1 album of 2023 — already topped the Billboard 200 for a week last September, and has lingered not too far from the top ever since, landing at No. 23 on this week’s listing. It may get a good bump next week, thanks to the start of her Guts World Tour, which kicked off in southern California over the weekend and continues through Texas this week – not only electrifying fans in those locations, but also tantalizing potential attendees from all over the country, who have been devouring clips of Rodrigo’s first-ever arena headlining dates on social media.
Ace Frehley, 10,000 Volts (MNRK): The Spaceman is back. Guitar legend Ace Frehley did not appear with KISS on their End of the Road World Tour – supposedly the group’s final-ever live trek, ending in December 2023 – but he returns this week with his first album of originals since 2018. The 11-track set, released amidst back-and-forth swiping between Frehley and his former bandmates, is available in at least 11 vinyl variants, as well as a standard CD digipack and jewel case, and a Walmart exclusive with a lenticular cover.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated March 2), Beyoncé’s country crossover leads the pack of challengers setting their sights on the Hot 100’s top spot.
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Beyoncé, “Texas Hold ‘Em” (Parkwood/Columbia/Columbia Nashville): With just four full days of tracking following its Sunday night debut during Super Bowl XVIII (Feb. 11), Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” still amassed enough consumption during its debut week to top Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart (dated Feb. 24), making Bey the first Black female artist to ever hit the listing’s apex. It also racked up enough sales, streams and airplay to bow at No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week, landing behind only the most dominant smash hit of early 2024: Jack Harlow’s six-week No. 1 “Lovin on Me.”
In week two, it may have the hole cards to get all the way to the chart’s top. “Hold ‘Em” continues to sell well after debuting atop Digital Song Sales this week, with versions of the song occupying the No. 1 and No. 3 spots on the real-time iTunes chart. It also remains a top contender on streaming, ranking at No. 2 on the daily listings for both Spotify and Apple Music. With a full seven days to put up numbers this week, its consistently strong performance in sales and streams could be enough to push it past “Lovin.”
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Radio could be the deciding factor in the competition. “Lovin” spends its fifth week atop Radio Songs this week, with the song still growing in audience – numbers that have kept the song a weekly No. 1 contender, even as it continues to slide in its sales and streams. But “Hold ‘Em” is also off to a strong start on the airwaves: The song debuts at No. 38 on Pop Airplay and No. 54 on Country Airplay, while rising at both formats, and also advancing at rhythmic, mainstream R&B/hip-hop, adult R&B and adult pop formats as well. If it makes up ground there fast enough, “Hold ‘Em” may end up taking the whole pot next week.
¥$: Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign, “Carnival” (YZY): Bey’s new smash was the Hot 100’s biggest debut last week, but it wasn’t the only new entry in the top five: Landing just one spot lower was Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign’s new Vultures 1 focus cut “Carnival,” with (unbilled) appearances from Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti. “Carnival,” which also debuted with an incomplete first week after dropping two Saturdays ago (Feb. 10), hasn’t had the sales potency of “Hold ‘Em,” debuting at No. 18 on Digital Song Sales. But it has been a monster on streaming, bowing atop Streaming Songs, and relegating Bey to the runner-up spot on Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily charts by continuing to lead at both.
But while the recent backlash against Kanye’s latest controversies — including wearing a “White Lives Matter” T-shirt and making repeat antisemitic comments (which he has since issued a public apology for in Hebrew) — don’t seem to have affected his streaming audience, it may continue to dampen his radio support. (“Carnival” is also part of Ye’s first album release as a totally independent artist, meaning he no longer has major label promotion to rely on.) The song has not yet received notable airplay at any major radio format, putting it in a pretty big hole when competing with a certified FM smash like “Lovin” and a growing multi-format hit like “Hold ‘Em.”
Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?” (Republic): Grande’s Eternal Sunshine lead single has already spent one week atop the Hot 100 – though the song did not hang around the chart’s top tier very long, sliding out of the top 10 within just two weeks and currently ranking at No. 31 in its fifth frame. A new remix alongside pop&B predecessor Mariah Carey, which debuted last Friday (Feb. 16), may be just what the song needs to reverse its chart momentum – though it won’t be very likely to get it back in the mix for No. 1, as the new remix has already vacated most major daily streaming and sales charts.
The bigger question (for the Lambily at least) may be about whether the new version racked up enough stats in its first few days to outperform the original for the week, potentially getting Carey added to the official chart listing for the song. We’ll have to see about that next week, though recent history is not particularly on her side: When Carey was added to the remix of Latto’s “Big Energy” (which even interpolated MC’s own “Fantasy”) in 2022, it helped shoot the song into the Hot 100’s top 10 for the first time, but with Latto remaining by her lonesome on the artist credit.
IN THE MIX
Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” (SWIMS Int./Warner): Teddy Swims’ breakthrough-hit-that-could got all the way to No. 2 on the Hot 100 last week before getting lapped by “Hold ‘Em” and “Carnival” this week. Don’t count it out just yet, though: It’s still in the top 10 on Streaming Songs, it’s returned to No. 2 on the iTunes chart, and it continues to grow on the airwaves, climbing 13-12 on Radio Songs this week. It may just be a big remix away from mounting a real charge for Swims’ first Hot 100 No. 1 – one featuring Fat Man Scoop, perhaps?
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things” (Night Street/Warner): Swims’ Warner labelmate Benson Boone also gets bumped from the Hot 100’s top three this week, but is still holding strong at No. 4, while hanging at No. 2 on Streaming Songs and climbing back into the top 10 on Digital Song Sales. And radio is really starting to kick in for “Beautiful Things”: It’s not on the 40-position Radio Songs chart yet, but it bounds 32-24 on Pop Airplay, and is climbing quickly at both pop and adult formats. If it continues to catch up there, the sky’s the limit for the soaring power ballad.
Welcome to Billboard Pro’s Trending Up column, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip. This week: The Big Game leads to big gains for country Beyoncé, Usher’s (faux-)lovers and friends and a Whitney classic, while Aimee Carty gets an unexpected lift from the college basketball world, and much more.
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BeyHive Re-Learns Past Country ‘Lessons’ Following New Single Releases
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When Beyoncé unexpectedly returned on Sunday night (Feb. 11) by surprise-releasing two new singles, “Texas Hold ’Em” and “16 Carriages,” during the Super Bowl, fans were greeted with a pair of country music tracks that seemingly preview the cowboy-hat nature of her upcoming album, Act II. However, longtime Bey fans were quick to point out that the new songs were not, of course, not Beyoncé first country music foray — after all, 2016’s Lemonade was highlighted by “Daddy Lessons,” a rip-roaring jamboree that eventually received a remix and CMA Awards performance with the Chicks.
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As both “Texas Hold ’Em” and “16 Carriages” get off to hot starts — on their first full day on streaming services, the tracks respectively earned 4.32 million and 2.66 million U.S. on-demand streams, according to Luminate — fans have also returned to “Daddy Lessons” and helped the nearly eight-year-old track receive new life. On Feb. 12, the song earned 160,000 streams, up a whopping 370% from the previous Monday (34,000 streams). We’ll find out on Mar. 29 how much of Act II actually resembles the sonic makeup of “Daddy Lessons,” but until then, expect its streams to stay elevated as fans prepare for Queen Bey’s country era. — JASON LIPSHUTZ
Alicia Keys & Lil Jon Hits Also Boosted by Usher-Headlined Halftime
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Usher’s well-received and widely viewed – like, 129-million-plus wide – halftime show at Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday night (Feb. 11) has of course had a profound effect on consumption of the R&B superstar’s back catalog. We’ll have exact numbers on Mr. Raymond’s post-SB stats to come later on Billboard, but suffice to say he is up fairly dramatically in song sales and streams following his performance, with classics like “Yeah!” and “My Boo” even threatening Billboard Hot 100 re-entrances next week. But he’s not the only artist seeing gains from the halftime extravaganza.
Alicia Keys, who joined the set primarily to display her vocal and on-stage chemistry with her old duet partner on “My Boo,” also offered a chorus of her own solo 2004 smash ballad “If I Ain’t Got You,” with Usher joining in harmonies at the end. The song consequently racked up 889,000 official on-demand U.S. streams over that Sunday and the following Monday – up nearly 59% from the 560,000 streams it posted over the equivalent two-day period the prior week, according to Luminate. The song also grew in digital sales over the same period, from a negligible amount to nearly 700 copies. (We’ll have to wait to see what impact Keys’ “Got You” performance going viral on Tuesday for less-than-desirable reasons will have on its consumption the rest of the week.)
Meanwhile, Usher’s “Yeah!” collaborator Lil Jon also got his own spotlight moment before being joined by the set’s headliner, leading the crowd in shouts of the timeless refrain to his and DJ Snake’s club perennial, “Turn Down for What.” The song rose 83% in streams from Feb. 5-6 (217,000) to Feb. 12-13 (398,000) and saw an even more pronounced rise in sales, going from a negligible amount to over 1,000 copies. Former Usher collaborators from Gucci Mane to Ella Mai are probably looking at those numbers this week wondering what they gotta do to get the call next time. – ANDREW UNTERBERGER
Super Bowl ‘Wicked’ Trailer Starring Ariana Grande & Cynthia Erivo Spurs Soundtrack Streaming Gains
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During the first batch of Super Bowl commercials on Sunday night (Feb. 11), viewers were treated to the first look at Wicked – the forthcoming Jon M. Chu-helmed movie musical based on the fourth-longest-running show in Broadway history. The new film adaptation of the story of Elphaba (Erivo) and Galinda (Grande) hits theaters on Nov. 27, 2024, but fans are already flocking to the existing Broadway cast soundtracks to feed their anticipation.
On the Monday preceding the Super Bowl (Feb. 5), the official combined tally for songs on the original 2003 Wicked cast recording and the 15th anniversary 2018 edition clocked in at 365,000 official on-demand U.S. streams. By the Monday following the Big Game (Feb. 12), that number rose by a whopping 93.6% to 705,000 official on-demand streams. Expect those numbers to continue trending up as the trailer continues to make the rounds in the months leading up to the film’s theatrical release. With Erivo’s take on the “Defying Gravity” riff already going viral, and Grande’s imminent Eternal Sunshine album poised to make a sizable splash, all eyes are on the Wicked ladies as Thanksgiving 2024 draws nearer. – KYLE DENIS
Old Kanye West Song Benefits From Being Sampled on New Kanye West Song
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“Hell of a Life” was not supposed to appear in sampled form on “Carnival,” the breakout track from Ye and Ty Dolla $ign’s new collaborative project Vultures 1: a live version of Black Sabbath’s iconic “Iron Man” riff was originally supposed to be lifted into the song, but Ozzy Osbourne refused to clear the sample and sent West a very public cease-and-desist. The fuzzed-out riff from “Hell of a Life,” an album cut from West’s iconic 2010 LP My Beautiful Dark Twisted Fantasy, turned into Plan B, and as “Carnival” continues gobbling up streams, “Hell of a Life” has earned a bit of a resurgence as well.
On Monday and Tuesday of this week (Feb. 12-13), “Hell of a Life” earned 96,000 official on-demand U.S. streams, a 54% spike from the same period during the previous week, according to Luminate. Of course, that total pales in comparison to that of “Carnival,” which earned 10.9 million streams between Sunday and Tuesday, and remains entrenched atop daily U.S. streaming charts. Maybe West will sample “Carnival” for a song on Vultures II and create a trickle-down effect on his streaming catalog. – JL
Duke Star Jared McCain’s TikToks Make a Streaming Smash Out of “2 Days Into College”
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Before his fiery first year at Cameron Indoor Stadium alongside his fellow Blue Devils on Duke University’s men’s basketball team, Jared McCain was a TikTok favorite. Now a key player on one of the most popular college sports teams in the country, McCain boasts over 2.4 million followers on TikTok – and his massive audience on the platform has helped turn Irish singer-songwriter Aimee Carty’s “2 Days Into College” into a verifiable streaming hit.
According to Luminate, “2 Days Into College” earned a little over 50,000 official on-demand streams during the period of Jan. 18-25. Over the next week (Jan. 26-Feb. 1), that number exploded by a mind-boggling 4,319% to 2.23 million on-demand streams. Over Feb. 2-8, streams again improved by a further 101%, good enough for just under 4.5 million on-demand streams. McCain first used the song on TikTok in a Jan. 25 post captioned, “Post workout jingles [Aimee Carty] was elite with this.” The post currently holds over 1.1 million likes and 9 million views, while the clip’s official sound features McCain’s very own a cappella cover of the song. Five days later he posted another clip – soundtracked by a mashup of his cover and Carty’s original track – that garnered one million likes and 10.2 million views. Feb. 2 brought yet another TikTok with the mashup playing in the background, and by Feb. 7, McCain was posting TikToks to a Jersey club remix of “2 Days Into College.”
That remix – created by TikTok user @prodbyraesam (Feb. 3) — currently boasts over 12,800 posts on TikTok, while an official sound for Carty’s song is not currently available on the platform. Nonetheless, Carty’s Dec. 6, 2023, TikTok previewing “College” has collected 4.1 million likes and 28 million views to date. The fast-rising singer-songwriter has even acknowledged McCain’s impact on the song’s success, dueting one of his TikToks to the tune of 3.7 million views and 361,400 likes.
As of Feb. 10, “2 Days Into College” is officially Aimee Carty’s Billboard chart debut. The song debuted at No. 22 on the TikTok Billboard Top 50 (chart dated Feb. 10) and at No. 5 on the Bubbling Under Hot 100 (dated Feb. 17). Carty also makes her first appearance on the Feb. 17 Emerging Artists chart, at No. 32. — KD
Season’s Gainings: Fans Will Always Love Whitney’s National Anthem on Super Bowl Sunday
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Reba McEntire’s “Star-Spangled Banner” at Super Bowl LVIIII: pretty good! No complaints. But as far as all-time versions of the anthem go, it’s entirely likely that none at the Big Game will ever touch Whitney Houston’s XXV rendition in 1991, a version mighty enough to lift the nation’s Gulf War-era spirits and chart on the Hot 100 multiple times. Also one good enough for fans to play annually on (or after) Super Bowl Sunday: Houston’s rendition racked up 14,000 combined official on-demand U.S. streams over Feb. 12-13, a 52% gain from the equivalent period the week before that, according to Luminate. – AU
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Feb. 24), two of the year’s most-anticipated new releases vie for No. 1, while a third-party candidate originally from 2022 also gets into the mix.
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Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign, Vultures 1 (YZY): Kanye’s and Ty Dolla’s long-awaited and much-delayed – can just assume both of those descriptors with any Ye-related release at this point – collaborative new LP Vultures 1 is the former’s first wide release on his new independent label YZY. The 16-track effort features appearances from big-name collaborators like Travis Scott, Playboi Carti and Chris Brown – though none are actually credited on the feature-less tracklist – as well as a guest vocal from Ye’s 10-year-old daughter North on “Talking.” (It also features an interpolation of Donna Summer’s disco classic “I Feel Love” on “Good (Don’t Die),” which the Summer estate has decried as unauthorized.)
The album was originally supposed to debut on Friday, after a Chicago listening event, but ultimately trickled out (with a false start or two) on streaming services over Saturday. The incomplete first tracking week for the set – with only five full days of consumption – will likely dampen its opening numbers a little, as will its lack of physical availability, as the album is not yet available for purchase on CD or vinyl. (The set also has received muted support on many top Spotify playlists for an album of its buzz, likely due to past and ongoing Ye-related controversies.)
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However, with high anticipation for the set (as Ye always seems to garner, regardless of his real-life backlash), it should still do fairly sizeable streaming numbers. As of Wednesday, it still claimed four songs in the top 10 on Spotify’s US Daily Top 200 and five in Apple Music’s real-time top 10, with its “Carnival” leading both listings. Given Kanye’s history on the Billboard 200 – which boasts 10 No. 1 albums, including controversy-embroiled more recent releases like 2019’s JESUS IS KING and 2021’s Donda – it would be foolish to bet against him finding similar success with Vultures.
Usher, Coming Home (Mega/Gamma): Coming Home represents a number of firsts for Usher: His first album of the 2020s, his first through independent record label Mega (in partnership with the Larry Jackson-founded alternative distributor Gamma) and his first since being minted as a Super Bowl headliner. Technically, the set debuted two days before the Big Game, but the album will undoubtedly be boosted by the added exposure of the most-watched halftime performance in SB history – even though the pop&B superstar didn’t actually perform any songs from the new album, opting to stick to a set of more-established classics.
Nonetheless, Coming Home does arrive with some built-in success: “Good Good,” the album’s lead single alongside next-gen ATLiens Summer Walker and 21 Savage, has previously reached No. 25 on the Billboard Hot 100, already his biggest hit on the chart in a decade. The set features additional collabs with hitmakers Latto, Burna Boy, H.E.R. and Jung Kook (on a previously released remix of the latter’s top 5 Hot 100 hit “Standing Next to You”). All of these should help streams of the set — and sales are also expected to be robust, with Coming Home available on CD, in five different vinyl variants, and through both CD and vinyl box sets that include branded merch. (Digital editions of the album have also been heavily discounted.)
While Usher’s new album will likely be his best-performing LP this week, he should also see some major movement with his back catalog – most notably with his Billboard 200-topping 2004 juggernaut Confessions. The classic album, which celebrates its 20th anniversary this year, had a whopping seven tracks make its way to Usher’s halftime setlist, including the set-capping Lil Jon and Ludacris collab “Yeah!” and the much-buzzed-about Alicia Keys duet performance “My Boo.” It re-enters the top half of the 200 this week, jumping 140-92, and should make an even bigger leap next week.
Noah Kahan, Stick Season (Mercury/Republic): The weather may be warming outside – slowly – but on the Billboard 200, Stick Season may simply never end. Alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan’s breakout album, which has only grown in popularity and impact in the 16 months since its October 2022 release, has spent the entirety of post-holidays 2024 in the Billboard 200’s top 10, climbing back as high as No. 4, after having peaked at No. 3 last June following the set’s We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe re-release.
Stick Season slips to No. 7 this week, but it may very well return to the top three once more next week, following another, even deluxer reissue of the set. This one is titled Stick Season (Forever), and features a whopping 30 tracks, including previously released Hot 100-charting collaborative remixes of Stick originals with Post Malone (“Dial Drunk”), Kacey Musgraves (“She Calls Me Back”) and Hozier (“Northern Attitude”). In addition to all of those, the set also boasts two (well, one and a half) totally unreleased cuts: the solo ballad “Forever” and the Brandi Carlile-guesting redo of We’ll All Be Here Forever fan favorite “You’re Gonna Go Far.” (All versions of the album, new and old, are combined together for tracking and charting purposes, under its original title: Stick Season.)
The new edition of the now-blockbuster set has no physical release available, but has already spurred plenty of extra streaming activity for both the original album and its previously released “new” tracks – as well as for the brand-new “Forever,” which is still in the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily charts.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 17), while Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me” is again the front-runner to return to No. 1, the biggest winners and performers on Music’s Biggest Night also get perhaps the final big bump of their chart runs.
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Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): Perhaps the most buzzed-about performance of Grammy night featured Luke Combs dueting with Tracy Chapman (for the first time) on “Fast Car,” the song the two performers both had top 10 hits with, 35 years apart. It was a major moment for both artists, a long-overdue comeback appearance for a traditionally spotlight-reticent Chapman, and a full-circle one for Combs, who has called “Fast Car” his “first favorite song.”
Chapman’s version of “Fast Car” has seen the most pronounced gains since the duet aired, with her original zooming to No. 1 on the iTunes sales chart, and also reaching the top 100 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the first time. But Combs’ cover has also seen a pronounced bump, climbing back into the iTunes top five and rebounding to Spotify’s U.S. top 40. Combs’ “Car” has been slowing on the Hot 100, after reaching No. 2 last July and most recently ranking in the top 10 in January, but still parks at No. 20 on the chart this week; with his added Grammy propulsion, he very well may pop a U-turn and head back towards the top 10.
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (Smiley Miley/Columbia): Miley Cyrus’ new signature hit was truly in full bloom on Grammy night. Not only did it take home two awards on the telecast (best pop solo performance and record of the year, her first-ever Grammy wins), but it also received a spotlight performance, in what Cyrus referred to as just her second time publicly singing the song. Her rendition was understandably triumphant — somewhat literally so, as she finished her final “started to cry, but then remembered…” pre-chorus with the ad-lib “I just won my first Grammy!”
The big Grammy moment has revived interest in the year-old song – which is still lingering in the Hot 100’s top 40, sliding from No. 27 to 32 this week – with it re-entering the top 40 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and the top five on the iTunes sales chart. With radio support for the song remaining steady (and recently record-breaking), if not quite as overwhelming as the song’s mid-2023 peak, it should stand a chance of jumping back into the Hot 100’s top 20 – and perhaps even higher if its newfound momentum keeps up throughout the week.
Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?” (Darkroom/WaterTower/Atlantic/Interscope): Award season has always been Billie Eilish and Finneas’ friend, and perhaps none more so than 2024’s. “What Was I Made For?” just won song of the year at the Grammys – their second win in the category, following “Bad Guy” in 2020 – and also received a heartfelt performance from the duo during the ceremony. That may just be the warmup for next month’s Oscars, where the song (from Barbie) is the prohibitive favorite to win in best original song (which would again be a second W for the duo, following Bond theme “No Time to Die” in 2022).
Will the momentum be enough to bump the song to the top 10? Unlike “Flowers” and “Fast Car,” which have already hit peaks of No. 1 and No. 2 on the Hot 100, respectively, “Made For” has yet to reach the chart’s top tier, having peaked at No. 14 last August amid Barbie buzz. The song is currently perched at No. 31, and is up in sales and streams since the Grammys – though not as much as the other two aforementioned Grammy gainers. If it’s going to make up serious ground, it’ll need help from radio – it’s the only one of the three songs mentioned that still has room and potential to grow on the airwaves; while it’s peaked at pop radio, it’s still rising on adult formats.
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Billy Joel, “Turn the Lights Back On” (Columbia): While Columbia is certainly victory-lapping this week with its Miley Cyrus and Luke Combs Grammy night successes, the label also has reason to celebrate with one of its greatest legacy artists: Billy Joel made his return to recording with the new song “Turn the Lights Back On,” his first single since 2007. The song isn’t likely to threaten the top tier of the Hot 100, but it’s been selling well enough since its Thursday debut, and drawing enough adult radio airplay, to at least challenge for a spot on the chart – which would be his first appearance as a recording artist since his Bob Dylan-penned “To Make You Feel My Love” hit No. 50 in 1997.
Dua Lipa, “Houdini” (Warner): Grammy night’s opening performance came courtesy of returning pop star Dua Lipa, delivering her most recent single “Houdini” along with its yet-unreleased follow-up “Training Season.” Streaming gains for “Houdini,” which sits at No. 25 on the Hot 100 this week after debuting at its No. 11 high in November, have been modest following the performance — but it has seen a bigger spike in sales, which could help give it a boost back to the Hot 100’s top 20.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 10), the year’s biggest new rap beef may power the next No. 1 debut, if a conservative pundit doesn’t elbow his way into the race.
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Megan Thee Stallion, “Hiss” (Hot Girl Productions) / Nicki Minaj, “Big Foot” (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic): Megan Thee Stallion set the rap and pop worlds ablaze on Friday with her incendiary “Hiss,” striking back against haters and foes who have plagued her drama-filled past few years. No specific names were mentioned, but certain bars were popularly interpreted to be directed at Nicki Minaj – who took the insult personally, firing back at her fellow MC over social media all weekend before dropping her own pointed response to Megan, “Big Foot.”
With the battle between the two inevitably turning into a chart war, many will be looking to next week’s Hot 100 to ultimately crown a victor. It’s not a particularly fair fight, since “Hiss” has a three-day head start on “Big Foot,” having been released at the very start of the tracking week, rather than Sunday at midnight. Nonetheless, with both now out for multiple days, “Hiss” currently leads “Big Foot” by most real-time metrics – it’s atop both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily US streaming charts (“Foot” is right behind it on Apple but about 20 spots lower on Spotify) and claims both the No. 2 and No. 3 spots on the iTunes Top 100 with its multiple versions (“Foot” is No. 4, with both songs also now boasting multiple other variants throughout the top 25).
Will it be enough to pass Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me” for the top spot on the Hot 100? It could be close: “Lovin” remains a strong performer in all chart factors, even still gaining in radio as it spends his second week atop the Radio Songs listing. But with “Hiss” given a jolt by all of the extra publicity over the weekend, it’s not only maintained its release momentum, it’s still been growing – and if it continues to do so over the final couple days of the tracking week, it could have a real shot at nabbing Megan both the first Hot 100 No. 1 debut as a lead artist and the first unaccompanied No. 1 of her career.
Tom MacDonald feat. Ben Shapiro, “Facts” (Self-released): Yes, really: After right-wing pundit Ben Shapiro helped propel multiple songs to No. 1 this decade (including Megan’s own “WAP” back in 2020) with either his endorsement or his disavowal, he’s now in pursuit of a Hot 100-topper of his own. He even admits as much on “Facts,” his collab with “anti-woke” rapper Tom MacDonald, as he directs audiences during his own rap verse – again, yes, really — “All my people download this, let’s get a Billboard No. 1.”
He’s likely to get a No. 1 on Billboard’s Digital Song Sales chart, anyway, as “Facts” has held the lead on iTunes essentially since its Jan. 26 release date, even amidst the Nicki/Megan beefing. The song’s streaming numbers are relatively small compared to “Hiss” and “Lovin on Me,” though, and it has no real radio support, so to even challenge for No. 1 it will still have to post a pretty stratospheric sales number in its debut week. Shapiro’s certainly banking on getting bragging rights over one of the week’s primary contenders, at least: “Nicki, take some notes, I just did this for fun,” he also taunts in his verse.
Justin Timberlake, “Selfish” (RCA): In a less wild week, Justin Timberlake’s comeback single would likely be the most buzzed-about debut – though with Timberlake’s commercial fortunes declining fairly steadily over the past decade, “Selfish” was probably always something of a long shot for a No. 1 entrance.
The love song, whose bow will also be hurt by its release coming last Thursday (meaning its first day of consumption totals will count towards the previous chart week), has nonetheless sold consistently and streamed somewhat steadily. It also has been embraced immediately on pop radio, with the song debuting at No. 33 on Pop Airplay this week after just a single day’s airplay. It might not be in the hunt for No. 1, but it could challenge the No. 25 debut of *NSYNC’s “Better Place” last year for the highest-charting JT-related song on the Hot 100 this decade.
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Morgan Wallen, “Spin You Around (1/24)” (Honeyhole/Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): With Taylor Swift recently raising the commercial ceiling on re-recordings of decade-old songs, it’s hardly shocking to see Morgan Wallen’s acoustic re-do of this early-career ballad – successfully intended to overshadow his old label’s unsanctioned deluxe reissue of early-career debut EP Stand Alone – be received commercially like a brand new single. “Spin You Around (1/24)” may not have the longevity of Wallen’s One Thing at a Time hits, but the combination of curiosity streams and sales for a song many newer fans might not even be familiar with should get it a notable Hot 100 debut.
Ice Spice, “Think U the Shit (Fart)” (Dolo Entertainment/10K/Capitol): Something of a “yes, really” in its own right, Ice Spice’s purposefully goofy latest single has divided the internet into those who find it to be frivolous, winking fun and those who think it’s just too silly for serious listening. The song might not be too long for the charts – the rapper just announced her imminent debut album, so she may be moving on fairly quickly herself – but initial interest in “Shit (Fart)” should be enough for a good Hot 100 debut, perhaps good enough to become her first unaccompanied top 40 hit.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 27), Green Day look to score the second new No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in 2024 with the debut of their 14th LP, Saviors.
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Green Day, Saviors (Reprise): Green Day’s 15-track latest set was released on Friday (Jan. 19) with hype billing it as their big attempt at a 2024 return-to-form – even featuring production by Rob Cavallo, knob-twiddler behind most of the band’s classic ‘90s and ‘00s LPs. The set has drawn mostly positive reviews, and kicks off what should be a very eventful year for the Rock and Roll Hall of Famers, as they’re celebrating the respective 20th and 30th anniversaries of their epochal albums Dookie and American Idiot on their much-anticipated upcoming stadium tour (alongside fellow ‘90s alt hitmakers Smashing Pumpkins and Rancid), performing each album in its entirety.
The album is expected to sell in strong numbers, helped by the large number of variants in which the LP is currently available. Along with the digital album and standard CD, there’s also a signed CD sold through the band’s webstore, one cassette and at least 16 vinyl variants (mostly varying in color), including exclusives for Amazon, Barnes & Noble, indie record stores, Target, Walmart and more. There’s also two boxed sets for purchase, each with a branded T-shirt and a CD inside, as well as a Fan Pack offer with a T-shirt and a CD.
If Saviors can reach No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – and it will be a challenge, given that Green Day has never performed particularly well in streaming – it would mark their third consecutive decade with a No. 1 album. They most recently topped the chart with Revolution Radio in 2016, and previously did it with both Idiot and its 2009 follow-up, 21st Century Breakdown. (Surprisingly, they never bested the chart in the ‘90s, with both Dookie and its 1995 follow-up Insomniac topping out at No. 2.)
21 Savage, American Dream (Slaughter Gang/Epic): Green Day’s primary obstacle in the way of their fourth No. 1 album is the current reigning champ. This week, American Dream became the first new album to top the chart in 2024, moving an impressive 133,000 units – mostly in streaming – while also launching the biggest unaccompanied Billboard Hot 100 solo hit of 21 Savage’s career in the quickly viral, No. 5-debuting “Redrum.” The numbers were impressive enough to further confirm Savage’s superstar status, without some of the usual qualifications that have dogged his legacy in the past.
The numbers for American Dream will likely dip considerably in its second week, but the album should still have a strong shot at staying atop the chart for a second week this frame, with its streaming performance remaining steady – the set continues to hold down seven of the top 20 spots on Apple Music’s real-time chart, including pole position for “Redrum.” If the race is particularly close, it also wouldn’t be shocking to see Savage’s team pull out a last-minute deluxe edition with a few new songs to boost the final streaming numbers, as has become increasingly common practice for big rap and pop albums in the past few years.
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Eladio Carrión, Sol María (Rimas): The biggest release for the week in the Latin music world comes from Puerto Rican-American rapper Eladio Carrión. His 17-track new album Sol María features guest appearances from big names like Yandel, Rauw Alejandro, Arcángel and Sech, and is led by the Latin airplay hit “TQMQA.” The set follows 2023’s 3MEN2 KBRN, which became his first LP to hit the top 20 of the Billboard 200, debuting at No. 16 in April.
Lil Dicky, Penith (The DAVE Soundtrack): With rapper-comedian-actor Lil Dicky’s acclaimed (and very loosely autobiographical) TV sitcom Dave having wrapped its third season last Spring, its star decided it was time for the show to release an official soundtrack. That finally arrived last Friday with Penith, a 22-track collection of music included throughout the series – some in fuller versions than featured on the show. Star producer Benny Blanco, a recurring guest star on the show, worked on most of the tracks, but West Coast rap fixture YG is the only big-name guest, appearing on “YG’s Interlude.”
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 27), Ariana Grande looks to score her eighth No. 1, while new songs from rap stars 21 Savage and Lil Nas X also make their initial impacts.
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Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?” (Republic): Ariana Grande has been one of the most reliable hitmakers in pop music for over 10 years now, and though she’s only released one album so far this decade (2020’s Positions), she’s already scored a stunning five Hot 100 No. 1s since ‘20: two alongside The Weeknd (“Save Your Tears” and “Die for You”), one with Lady Gaga (“Rain on Me”), one with Justin Bieber (“Stuck With U”) and one totally solo (“Positions”). Next week, she hopes to add a sixth No. 1 to that 2020s tally, and her second one unaccompanied, with the arrival last Friday (Jan. 17) of new single “Yes, And?”
The house-influenced song, released as the lead single from her upcoming Eternal Sunshine album, was easily the most-anticipated drop of the new year thus far, and came with a new dramatically staged and intricately choreographed music video, as well as instant radio support. But the streams for it, while considerable – it still rests at No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, though it’s fallen significantly lower on other daily DSP charts – are not so overwhelming that it is likely to blow past Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me,” which spends its third frame atop the Hot 100 this week.
To help get the new song over the top, Grande and her team have also released edited, extended, sped-up, slowed-down, a cappella and instrumental mixes of “Yes, And?” — all of which, as of writing, are currently populating the top 10 of iTunes’ real-time sales chart. The extra sales boost might be enough to make up the difference, but it will likely be something of a photo finish between it and “Lovin,” making for our first real chart suspense atop the Hot 100 of 2024.
Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me” (Genaration Now/Atlantic): For its part, Harlow’s crossover banger has hardly been letting up as the new year has unfolded. “Lovin” remains atop the Streaming Songs chart this week, while dropping just one spot to No. 2 on Digital Song Sales, and jumping 5-2 on Radio Songs. As long as its radio growth continues to offset its inevitable slippage in streams and sales, “Lovin” should remain a No. 1 contender for the near future – and it’s worth noting that Harlow has yet to even release an official remix or deliver a late night or awards show performance of the song, meaning he has still has cards to play if he ever wants to give the song’s momentum another adrenaline shot.
21 Savage, “redrum” (Slaughter Gang/Epic): While the Billboard 200 albums chart has seen even less impact from new releases so far this year than the Hot 100, this week it should get a few big debuts, led by star rapper 21 Savage’s new set American Dream. The semi-surprise release, announced just a week ago after a “movie trailer” that may have just been a particularly cinematic (and star-studded) music video for proper album opener “All of Me,” is likely to contend for the No. 1 spot on that chart — with all 15 tracks from the album (Savage’s first unaccompanied solo LP since 2018’s I Am > I Was) littering the daily charts of streaming services all week.
One song has proven to be the early runaway hit from the set: “Redrum,” a tough-talking, The Shining-referencing early-album highlight. The song, which even ends with a clip of Jack Nicholson doing his famous “Here’s Johnny!” speech from the aforementioned Stanley Kubrick horror classic, also got its own music video, set in the U.K. — where Savage was born, and was at risk of being deported back to at the turn of the decade. The natural buzziness of the song and video (as well as its intoxicatingly threatening chorus) has led to it being American Dream’s best performer on streaming – topping the Apple Music charts for most of the week, and finishing just behind Grande and Harlow on Spotify – and could result in a top 10 Hot 100 debut, which would be the rapper’s first appearance in the chart’s top tier on an unaccompanied solo track.
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Kali Uchis feat. Peso Pluma, “Igual Que Un Ángel” (Geffen): Uchis’ fourth full-length album (and her second predominantly in Spanish) Orquídeas has already netted some of the early year’s strongest reviews, and is also likely to earn her second straight top five placement on the Billboard 200, after last year’s No. 4-debuting Red Moon in Venus. The set also has an obvious breakout single in the Peso Pluma collab “Iqual Que Un Ángel” — with a roller-rink disco groove that gets the música Mexicana superstar on the dancefloor for arguably the first time – which has gotten off to a strong start on streaming, and may get Uchis back to the Hot 100’s top 40 for the first time since 20201’s “Telepatía.”
Lil Nas X, “J Christ” (Columbia): Much teased and much hyped by LNX himself, “J Christ” was looking like the most headline news-making debut of the week before Ariana Grande and 21 Savage announced their own new releases. Despite similar backlash to the song’s (and its accompanying video’s) religious themes to 2021’s Hot 100-topping “Montero (Call Me by Your Name),” it seems unlikely that “J Christ” will make as big an initial splash, as the song does not currently rank in the top 100 on either the Spotify or Apple Music daily charts – though it has gotten off to a solid start in sales and radio, and its video is still near the top of the Trending chart on YouTube.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 20), there may not be a ton of suspense towards the top of the Hot 100 — with Jack Harlow, Taylor Swift and Tate McRae likely to be holding strong in the top three — but other rising songs are threatening to break into the top 10 for the first time.
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Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” (SWIMS Int./Warner): One of the surprise slow-burn successes of late 2023, the big-voiced Teddy Swims‘ soulful crossover hit “Lose Control” continues to climb into the new year. “Control” spikes 48-12 on the Hot 100 this week — helped by streaming growth, as the song re-enters Streaming Songs at a new No. 10 peak this week, and also by impressive sales, with it rising to No. 2 on the Digital Song Sales chart. (Plus, the track has already hit the top 25 on Radio Songs.) A top 10 Hot 100 placement seems in reach for Swims in the next week or two as folks continue to discover the song for the first time — it’s also currently No. 2 on Shazam’s U.S. top 200 chart.
Nicki Minaj, “FTCU” (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic): Minaj‘s Pink Friday 2 breakout hit jumped from 53-17 on last week’s Hot 100 (dated Jan. 13) after the yearly deluge of holiday songs finally abated, and remains one of the early year’s strongest performers on streaming, holding in the top 10 of both Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily U.S. listings. The big question for it will be radio: While top 40 seems to have jumped on the Lil Uzi Vert-featuring “Everybody” when that song initially had the most momentum from the PF2 tracklist — it debuts at No. 38 on Pop Airplay this week — “FTCU” has been slower to find its footing there, which it may ultimately need to do to make its mark on the top 10.
Noah Kahan, “Stick Season” (Mercury/Republic): Speaking of songs debuting on Pop Airplay this week: Alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan makes his second bow on the chart, following last year’s “Dial Drunk” with Post Malone, with his somehow-still-rising breakout hit “Stick Season.” The 18-month-old title track to his unstoppable 2022 album, “Season” continues to grow on streaming while now also impacting radio, entering at No. 37 on Pop Airplay and rising 54-19 on the Hot 100, passing “Drunk” (at No. 48 this week, after reaching No. 25 last summer) for his biggest hit as a lead artist now on the latter chart. If the momentum continues, Kahan’s first-ever Hot 100 top 10 berth could only be a couple weeks away.
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Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA, “Rich Baby Daddy” (OVO Sound/Republic): While “First Person Shooter” with J. Cole and “IDGAF” with Yeat were the two most immediate hits from Drake‘s Billboard 200-topping For All the Dogs late last year, it appears that the most enduring single from the set will be the Sexyy Red- and SZA-featuring “Rich Baby Daddy.” The album’s most obviously hooky and upbeat highlight, “Daddy” returns to the Hot 100’s top 20 this week (52-16) after previously debuting at No. 11, and continues to regain ground on streaming — but is slipping a little on radio (21-29 on Radio Songs), where it may need to recapture its momentum to really make a push for the top 10.
Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?” (Darkroom/WaterTower/Interscope/Atlantic): Eilish‘s devastating piano ballad peaked at No. 14 at the height of Barbie-mania, and hung around the Hot 100 throughout most of the holiday season, before finally falling off the chart last week. It’s back at No. 20 this week, while holding as a solid performer on streaming and radio, and now it has a new source of adrenaline: awards season. The song just picked up best original song at the Golden Globes, and is up for five Grammys in February, with an Oscar nomination and possible win the following month also seeming practically inevitable.
Chris Stapleton, “White Horse” (Sound/Mercury Nashville): Not many might’ve expected Stapleton‘s searing Higher lead single to hang around as a major chart contender through the new year, but “White Horse” has remained impressively resilient, sticking on the Hot 100 through the holidays and jumping from 56-18 on this week’s listing. As the song re-enters Streaming Songs at No. 23, radio may again be the ticket for a top 10 entry: “Horse” is just outside the top five on the Country Airplay chart this week, as the fiery song perhaps remains a slightly awkward fit on the genre’s traditionally genial airwaves.
Xavi, “La Diabla” (Interscope): You have to dig a little deeper in the chart this week to find Mexican-American breakout star Xavi — he’s at No. 34 with “La Diabla,” and also No. 56 with “La Victima” — but chances feel pretty good that he’ll be a force to be reckoned with higher on the Hot 100 in the months to come. With all sorts of early-year buzz and eye-popping forward momentum on streaming, it’s pretty hard not to compare the Arizona-born, Interscope-signed 19-year-old with another música Mexicana breakout star who started to burst around this time last year.
