State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 13), the holiday rush is over on the charts, and now we see what rises back to the top when all those festive classics finally fall away.
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Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me” (Generation Now/Atlantic): It almost feels like a chart nerd trivia question at this point: What song was No. 1 on the Hot 100 before Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” spent five weeks trading off at the top spot? The answer: Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me,” which reached pole position in its second chart week after its quickly viral debut, becoming his third No. 1 in as many years on the listing.
Over a month later, the song is still going strong: It’s the only non-Christmas entry in this week’s top 10, holding on at No. 9, and has climbed to No. 5 on Radio Songs, while also reclaiming its throne atop the daily rankings for Spotify and Apple Music. In other words, there’s every indication that with the holiday songs disappearing on the Hot 100 – as they customarily do the first full chart week post-Christmas — “Lovin on Me” will not only be a leading candidate to recapture the top spot, but that it might be around for a long time still to come.
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): What, you thought that with the calendar turning to 2024, you might actually have a little less Taylor in your life? Not on this chart, anyway. Swift still maintained a trio of songs on the Hot 100 throughout the holiday season – led, of course by the blazing “Cruel Summer,” which topped the ranking for four weeks in October and November and remains the second-highest-ranking non-holiday song this week (No. 19), behind “Lovin.”
And it’s still not cooling down. “Summer,” revived from 2019’s Lover, tops Radio Songs for a 10th frame this week – the longest leader of Swift’s career – while returning to the top five on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. If even the coldest time of the year can’t tamp down this song’s incandescence, it just might end up sticking around through next summer, as well.
Tate McRae, “Greedy” (RCA): One song that was still growing as it ended up getting swallowed by the holiday rush was Tate McRae’s breakout smash “Greedy.” The pop favorite, which spends a fourth week at No. 1 on Pop Airplay this week, had broken into the Hot 100’s top 10, reaching as high as No. 7 – but would have gotten even higher had it not had to compete with the seasonal likes of Brenda and Mariah — particularly in the release week (Dec. 8) of parent album Think Later, when “Greedy” ranked behind just “Lovin” among all non-holiday songs.
The song should still be a contender in the post-holiday season, though: It remains a strong performer on both streaming and radio, and currently rates as the third-highest non-Christmas song on the Hot 100 (No. 24). That means it’s likely to hit a new peak on the chart this week as the holiday songs get put away for the new year – and beyond that, if it can get an extra boost from a new remix or performance or something else to help it regain momentum, it wouldn’t be too greedy for McRae to set her sights on the top spot.
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Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything” (Belting Bronco/Warner): This one feels like it came out a lifetime ago at this point, but it was only the Hot 100 dated Sept. 9 when Bryan’s and Musgraves’ duet bowed atop the chart. Four months later, the song has scarcely slowed on streaming – it’s currently in the top five on both Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily charts – and still holds at No. 31 on the Hot 100, higher than all but four pre-holiday entries. The airwaves remain the final frontier for “Everything,” as it’s gaining slowly and surely, but remains well below the 50-song cutoff to make the Radio Songs chart.
Tyla, “Water” (Fax/Epic): “Water” was another pop hit still gaining as the holiday takeover began, just touching the top 10 (at No. 10) before the waves of Christmas songs swept it back to shore. This week, Tyla‘s hit rests just below “Everything” at No. 32 on the Hot 100, with room still to grow on radio – as it rules the Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay chart for a sixth week — though how much the South African singer-songwriter wants to continue pushing the crossover smash rather than moving on to other material (like newer single “Truth or Dare”) remains to be seen.
Nicki Minaj, “FTCU” (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic): While the Junior Senior-sampling “Everybody” held the early lead as the breakout single from rap queen Nicki Minaj’s Billboard 200-topping Pink Friday 2 album, it appears that it will soon be lapped by LP-mate “FTCU.” The Waka Flocka Flame-lifting jam has long passed “Everybody” on both the Spotify and Apple Music daily charts (landing in the top 10 on both) and it also appears two spots higher on this week’s Hot 100 (No. 53 vs. No. 55), as a major radio embrace may be the only thing standing in the way of it becoming Minaj’s biggest unaccompanied solo hit since 2022’s “Super Freaky Girl.”
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 23), only two new albums seem set to make a major impact near the top of the charts: Nicki Minaj’s latest installment from her Pink Friday series, and the sophomore album from rising pop fixture Tate McRae.
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Nicki Minaj, Pink Friday 2 (Young Money/Republic): It’s been five years since the public last got a new studio album from veteran superstar Nicki Minaj, but after an endless stream of rumors and seeming false starts, the album fans had been waiting for finally arrived on Friday (Dec. 8): Pink Friday 2, the official sequel to her beloved 2010 debut album. The 22-track set features appearances from fellow A-listers Drake, Lil Wayne, J. Cole, Future and Lil Uzi Vert – the latter on the Junior Senior-sampling “Everyday,” which is off to an early lead as the set’s breakout hit – and also includes such previously released stand-alone singles as “Last Time I Saw You,” “Red Ruby da Sleaze” and the Billboard Hot 100-topping smash “Super Freaky Girl.”
The album is also available in a variety of physical variants, with four vinyl editions — including three retailer-exclusive versions, all with different covers and color vinyl – as well as two CDs, one standard and one signed (being sold through her webstore). Though the digital and streaming versions of Pink Friday 2 have 22 tracks, the physical releases only feature 10, with some fans theorizing that the remainder were perhaps not fully finished in time to make deadlines for pressing and release. A digital deluxe edition of the album was also released through her webstore on Monday, on sale for $5 and featuring a bonus 50 Cent-assisted remix of the album’s “Beep Beep.” Another digital deluxe edition dropped exclusively through her webstore on Dec. 13, also for $5, this time including the new bonus cut “Love Me Enough,” featuring R&B hitmakers Keyshia Cole and Monica. (Minaj previously teased that she would release one new Pink Friday 2 bonus track a day from Monday to Thursday this week.)
With the album off to a good start at streaming services (especially Apple Music, where it still holds five of the top 10 spots on the real-time charts five days after release) and strong physical sales expected, Pink Friday 2 should have a good chance at contending for the Billboard 200’s top spot next week. That would certainly be good news for Minaj, who’s had to settle for the runner-up spot with her last two sets (2014’s The Pinkprint and 2018’s Queen) after being held off by blockbusters from Taylor Swift and Travis Scott, respectively. But history is on her side here: Both of Minaj’s No. 1 albums have come with Pink Friday series releases, with the original topping the Billboard 200 in early 2011 and its Pink Friday: Roman Reloaded follow-up hitting the top spot in April 2012.
Tate McRae, Think Later (RCA): One of the breakout stories of late 2023 has been rising pop hitmaker and onetime competitive dancer Tate McRae. While McRae found success earlier this decade with the moody singles “You Broke Me First” and “She’s All I Wanna Be,” she hit the top 10 for the first time this fall with the crossover smash “Greedy,” which (along with its hockey rink-set music video) refashioned her as more of a classic triple-threat pop star. The increased attention led to new opportunities for McRae, including her first Saturday Night Live performance and first Billboard cover story in late November.
Now, she hopes to capitalize on the forward momentum with the release of her sophomore album Think Later. The 14-track set features both “Greedy” and follow-up hit “Exes” (which debuted at No. 34 on the Hot 100 earlier this month), as well as “Grave,” which she played as one of her two songs on SNL, and many other songs co-helmed by writer/producer Ryan Tedder, one of the primary architects behind those two singles.
The album should stream well, especially with the help of those two pre-established hits, and seems likely to pass the No. 13 bow of her 2022 debut LP I Used to Think I Could Fly and contend for a top 10 spot on next week’s Billboard 200. One thing that may hold it back a little: The set is currently only available in digital and signed CD editions, with other variants being pre-sold on her webstore – including a CD box set and a white opaque vinyl edition – not set to ship until next February.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 2), a South Korean group hopes to get the early holiday gift of its first No. 1 album, with the debut of its fourth studio LP.
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ATEEZ, The World Ep.Fin : Will (KQ/RCA/Hello82): Eight-piece South Korean boy band ATEEZ has been swelling in stateside popularity since its 2019 debut. Though it has yet to find major airplay or streaming success in the U.S., the group has scored three top 10 albums on the Billboard 200 — most recently reaching No. 2 on the chart with July’s The World EP.2 Outlaw, held off only by Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time blockbuster in the midst of its non-continuous 16-week run atop the chart.
Next week, the group may get its chance at the top spot. Ep.Fin is available for purchase in a whopping 33 different physical editions — 26 CD packages and seven vinyl packages – all with collectible branded merchandise inside. Among the 33 iterations are exclusive CDs and vinyls for Barnes & Noble, Target and Walmart, — all with retail-exclusive randomized photo cards inside. – Of the seven vinyl LPs, six are color vinyls (four “bone” colored, one magenta and one light blue, while one is a picture disc).
The group will again face stiff competition from a strong reigning champion: Taylor Swift, whose 1989 (Taylor’s Version) has spent three of the last five weeks atop the Billboard 200, and which is still posting weekly unit totals well into the six digits. Still, the time is now for ATEEZ. With a long-anticipated Nicki Minaj album due this Friday (Dec. 8) and the holiday season kicking into full swing shortly after, this upcoming chart week is likely its best remaining chance of finishing the year with a No. 1 album.
Michael Bublé, Christmas (143/Reprise/Warner): Bublé’s holiday perennial always starts to make noise on the charts around this time of year — and indeed, on the current week’s Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 9), the album pokes its head into the top 10 for the first time, jumping 24-9. Bublé leads the Christmas rush of albums expected to storm the chart in the weeks to come – but unlike on the Billboard Hot 100, where Mariah Carey (and now Brenda Lee) have ruled each year since 2019, a holiday album has not actually reached the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 since Pentatonix’s A Pentatonix Christmas reigned for two weeks in January 2017.
Speaking of Pentatonix, along with some of the usual returning suspects – Mariah Carey’s Merry Christmas, Nat King Cole’s The Christmas Song, Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas – there’s also a new collection from the a cappella group, The Greatest Christmas Hits, which may challenge its usual holiday contender, The Best Pentatonix Christmas. (The former rates at No. 23 on this week’s chart.) There’s also Cher’s new Christmas album, up 66-46 this week, which should benefit from perhaps the closest thing this holiday season has to a new breakout hit: “DJ Play a Christmas Love Song,” which has performed well on streaming, while also topping both radio and sales charts.
Peter Gabriel, I/O (Real World): Peter Gabriel’s days as a major pop hitmaker are now about 30 years in the rearview, but the Rock and Roll Hall of Famer (both solo and as part of Genesis) still commands attention with his new album releases – and I/O is his first since 2011’s New Blood. The album is available in 2CD, digital download and 2CD/blu-ray editions, as well as separate vinyl LP offerings of its “bright-side” and “dark-side” mixes. Gabriel also employed the unusual strategy of releasing a new song from the album every full moon in the 11 months leading up to its release – ultimately releasing all 12 tracks in advance.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Dec. 9), the now-annual holiday rush has begun on the Hot 100 – but for the first time, the usual pace-setter is in danger of being passed for the top spot.
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Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia): Since the chart dated Dec. 12, 2015, Mariah Carey’s signature Yuletide tune has reigned atop Billboard’s Holiday 100 listing — 43 consecutive weeks (of its total 58 weeks at No. 1 among the chart’s 63 weeks of existence, dating back to 2011). And every December since first reaching the Hot 100’s apex in 2019, “All I Want” has returned to the top of the chart, most recently spending four weeks at pole position, from the surveys dated Dec. 17, 2022, through to Jan. 7, 2023. In all, it has spent 12 weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100, belatedly making the 1994 release the third-longest-reigning single of Carey’s storied career, and arguably her all-time signature hit.
Once again this year, Carey’s pop perennial begins the holiday season in the lead. It returns at No. 1 on the first Holiday 100 of the 2023 season (dated Dec. 2) and also zooms from 17-4 on the Hot 100, in its 60th total week on the listing. As per tradition, Mimi has come out in full force to re-promote the seasonal staple (and her own Queen of Christmas status) this month. That includes sharing a video of her being “defrosted” at midnight on Nov. 1, starring in a holiday-themed Victoria’s Secret campaign, debuting new themed merch, and of course performing “All I Want” on the Billboard Music Awards (while also accepting the Billboard Chart Achievement Award for the song’s longtime success).
“All I Want” returning to No. 1 on next week’s Hot 100 would be no surprise at all — the song has been one of the great inevitables on the Billboard charts for nearly a half-decade now. However, this year it might be neck-and-neck with another holiday fixture, one that’s been gaining on it in recent years and may finally be in position to pull ahead.
Brenda Lee, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” (Decca): While Brenda Lee’s Christmas classic is 36 years older than Carey’s, it has nonetheless been building steam over the past half-decade, firmly establishing itself as the perennial silver medalist of Yuletide pop. As “All I Want” has reached No. 1 on both the Holiday 100 and the Hot 100 every year since 2019, so has “Rockin’” climbed to No. 2 on both charts — returning to the runner-up spot on this week’s Holiday 100, while also re-entering the Hot 100 at No. 8, as the second-highest-ranking holiday title. And each of the last few years, the gap in performance between the two songs has shrunk, though Carey’s has thus far remained the decisive leader.
This year, however, the competition has gotten legitimately tight. While Carey remains the leader of the two in sales and official on-demand U.S. streams through four days of this tracking week, Lee is slightly ahead in official U.S. streams, per preliminary tracking data for next week’s charts, according to Luminate. Lee’s song is also growing in streaming at a faster rate than Carey’s — and does in fact lead it comfortably on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart.
With the distance between the two songs looking increasingly climbable, and with “Rockin’” celebrating its 65th anniversary this year, Lee and her UMG label family have increased their promotional efforts to get the song over the top. Earlier this month, a new music video for the song (with cameos from country stars Tanya Tucker and Trisha Yearwood) premiered on CMT, while Lee will perform the song on NBC’s Christmas at the Opry special on Dec. 7. Lee also released the five-track A Rockin’ Christmas With Brenda Lee EP, featuring a new remix of “Rockin’” by dance producer Filous, and — of course — recently joined TikTok, where she’s been sharing daily posts reminiscing about the song and her career, and sharing her reactions to some of the new feedback and acclaim the song has garnered. (Lee even hopped on the plane intercom on a recent flight to perform the song, as captured by video shared on TMZ.)
With this major promotional push and an increasing public sentimentality behind the 78-year-old Lee — who, as one of the biggest pop stars of the pre-British Invasion ’60s, did top the Hot 100 twice, with 1960’s “I’m Sorry” and “I Want to Be Wanted” — this year should mark her best chance yet of returning to the top spot. If “Rockin’” doesn’t get there this week, it should be a week-to-week battle with “All I Want” throughout the holiday season — one that Lee herself recognized in a recent New York Times profile, quipping, “Now I gotta worry about Mariah… Get outta here, girl!” (She also added: “Oh, there’s room for everybody. Her song’s good, too. I love her singing.”)
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Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me” (Generation Now/Atlantic): Back in the secular music world, the reigning Hot 100 topper should still be a force to be reckoned with. Harlow’s “Lovin on Me,” his third No. 1 on the chart in three years, remains atop both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing and Apple Music’s real time charts, and it also debuts at No. 32 on Billboard’s Radio Songs rankings this week, as it continues to grow on the airwaves, claiming top Airplay Gainer status on the Dec. 2 Hot 100. It may soon be buried under the holiday music avalanche, but Harlow and “Lovin” won’t hand over the reins to the chart without at least a bit of a fight.
Wham!, “Last Christmas” (Epic/Columbia): It’s not quite as exciting as the Mariah/Brenda showdown, but there’s also a race for No. 3 on the Holiday 100. That’s between Bobby Helms’ country-rock classic “Jingle Bell Rock,” which has been the annual No. 3 on the holiday Hot 100 since the 2019-20 season, and Wham!’s synth-pop staple “Last Christmas.” Wham! has creeped closer to the Big Three each year since singer-songwriter George Michael‘s death in 2016, hitting a new peak last year of No. 4 on the Hot 100. This year, it’s nipping at the heels of “Jingle Bell Rock” — they’re Nos. 13 and No. 12 on this week’s Hot 100, respectively — as it narrowly trails Helms’ hit in streams, and also follows in airplay, while leading it in sales, so far this tracking week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 2), Dolly Parton’s rock-themed new set is in the mix for the No. 1 spot, but faces competition from recent Drake and Taylor Swift blockbusters.
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Dolly Parton, Rockstar (Butterfly/Big Machine): When Dolly Parton was nominated for (and later inducted into) the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame – despite a career mostly spent in country music and other rootsier genres – she was inspired to retroactively make good on her rock icon status by recording her first-ever full-length rock set. That album materialized on Friday with Rockstar, a 30-track affair that features the beloved singer-songwriter fully plugging into the genre, with a combination of covers and originals, and help from such legendary guests as Sting, Steven Tyler, Debbie Harry, Rob Halford, Elton John and of course goddaughter and frequent collaborator Miley Cyrus.
While Rockstar may not be particularly massive on streaming – though having 30 total tracks to stream will certainly help with those totals – it is expected to sell very well. It’s of course helped by the months of buzz generated by Parton’s Rock Hall embrace and her subsequent genre pivot, but even more so by the album’s wide availability: It’s being sold in more than 10 vinyl variants, including exclusive editions for Walmart, Barnes & Noble, Target, indie stores and (appropriately) the Rock Hall’s webstore, and is even being sold at less-traditional retailers like Cracker Barrel, Dollar General and HSN. (She could also get a late-week boost in visibility this Thursday, when she performs at halftime of the NFL’s Thanksgiving showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders, though that boost will most likely be limited to digital album sales and streaming services, due to most brick-and-mortar stores being closed on the holiday.) )
If all this adds up to enough sales for Rockstar to claim the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200, it would make for a benchmark moment in the country legend’s career: Despite visiting the chart 49 times – dating back to her first appearance in 1969 – Parton has yet to reach its apex, having only reached the top 10 twice. (She came closest in 1987, with the Emmylou Harris and Linda Ronstadt team-up set Trio, and with 2014’s Blue Smoke, both of which reached No. 6.)
Drake, For All the Dogs (OVO/Republic): Drake’s latest already topped the Billboard 200 upon its October debut, and it’s hung around the chart’s top five in the five weeks since. Next week, For All the Dogs should get another boost from the added attention and consumption resulting from the release of its new Scary Hours edition, which adds six extra cuts to the already-24-track set, including the J. Cole-featuring “Evil Ways.” As usual with Drake, the bonus songs are performing excellently on streaming, so Parton should beware of Dogs potentially securing an equivalent album unit total in the six digits, presenting a real challenge to her securing her first-ever No. 1 on the Billboard 200.
Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): Drake himself acknowledged Taylor Swift’s chart supremacy on his Scary Hours cut “Red Button,” calling her the “only one [who] could make me drop the album just a little later.” Swift’s latest (and biggest yet) blockbuster re-recording spent its first two weeks atop the Billboard 200, before falling to No. 2 behind Stray Kids’ Rock-Star on last week’s chart (dated Nov. 25). That sales-driven chart-topper will likely fall out of the mix for the top spot in its second week — but Swift’s should hang around, as the set continues to sell well, and several of her new Taylor’s Versions remain on the daily U.S. charts at the biggest DSPs.
IN THE MIX
ENHYPEN, Orange Blood (Befit Lab/YG): South Korean pop group ENHYPEN has inched closer to the top of the Billboard 200 with each of their last three EPs, securing their highest position on the chart with May’s No. 4-debuting Dark Blood. They’ll have a shot to one-up that finish with last Friday’s six-track Orange Blood, which should post strong sales – helped by 12 collectible CD variants with branded merch inside, and exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target and Walmart, as well as a webstore-exclusive digital edition with seven voice memos from the group members.
2 Chainz & Lil Wayne, Welcome 2 Collegrove (Def Jam/Gamebread): With six No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200 between them, rap greats 2 Chainz and Lil Wayne team up for a second collaborative album with this month’s Welcome 2 Collegrove, follow-up to 2016’s No. 4-peaking Collegrove. The 21-track effort also features appearances from big names like Rick Ross, 21 Savage and Usher, and a signed CD of the set is available through the duo’s official webstore.
Andre 3000, New Blue Sun (Epic/Sony): One of the late year’s most-discussed sets has been hip-hop legend Andre 3000’s ambient, rap-less set New Blue Sun, announced just a couple days before its release last Friday. Though as half of OutKast, Andre reached the top two of the Billboard 200 five times, New Blue Sun is not expected to stream enough to really make it a contender for the top spot (and is not yet available for physical purchase) — but it will almost certainly be the highest-ranking album of woodwind instrumentals on next week’s chart.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Nov. 11), Taylor Swift’s latest Taylor’s Version is already her biggest-debuting yet – but will it pass the original album’s bow was nine years earlier?
Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): This was the one fans had perhaps most been waiting for: Taylor Swift’s re-recording of her 2014 blockbuster 1989, the album that confirmed her as a full-on, no-qualifiers-needed pop superstar, and the set many most associate with her today. Even in a pop culture autumn already totally jam-packed with Swift – including a No. 1 movie at the box office (with her concert film Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour) and a No. 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (with her revived Lover deep cut “Cruel Summer” — 1989 (Taylor’s Version)‘s Oct. 28 debut was always going to make a seismic chart impact.
The album – which features new recordings of the 13 tracks originally on 1989, as well as of three bonus tracks from the album’s deluxe editions, and five songs from that period seeing release for the first time – unsurprisingly dominated streaming services upon its release. Spotify announced that Swift had set the record not only for the best single-day performance for an album on the DSP, but for any single artist – breaking her own record, natch, previously set with the release day of last October’s Midnights. On the most recent Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart (for Nov. 1), Swift still all of the top five spots, led by the Taylor’s Versions of new-old songs “Is It Over Now” and “Now That We Don’t Talk.”
Sales for the set have of course been massive. Billboard reported on Wednesday that in its first five days of release, the set had already posted a million in sales – making it her sixth album to pass the seven-digit mark in its first week. The album is available in 15 different physical variants, including five different-colored vinyl options (with a Target Exclusive version that also includes a bonus track re-recording of soundtrack song “Sweeter Than Fiction”), eight CD options (several with folded posters included), a multi-colored cassette, and a digital edition with a bonus track new version of 1989 single “Bad Blood,” featuring a re-recorded guest verse by rap superstar Kendrick Lamar.
1989 is already easily the best-performing Taylor’s Version for its debut week – sailing past the previous first-week high in units set by her re-recorded Speak Now (716,000) earlier this year. Will it also pass the first-week number set by the original 1989 back in 2014? That album also breezed by the million mark in its first week, ultimately posting 1.287 million in first-week sales. The new 1989 should certainly at least be in range of that, with the set already over a million in sales alone through the first five days of the tracking week, with two days’ worth of consumption still left to be accounted for.
If it can pass the original 1989, then Swift will have just one more of her own albums to pass for her best first-week performance ever: Midnights, which debuted with a staggering 1.578 million total units moved in November 2022 — of which 1.14 million were in straight sales.
IN THE MIX
SEVENTEEN, SEVENTEENTH HEAVEN (Pledis): Everyone is likely just competing for second on the Billboard 200 this week behind Taylor Swift, but South Korean boy band SEVENTEEN – who reached No. 2 on the chart in April with their FML EP — should have one of the week’s best-sellers with new EP SEVENTEENTH HEAVEN. As is common with major K-pop releases, the set’s sales will be bolstered by 16 collectible CD editions of the album, including exclusive versions sold via Barnes & Noble, Target and Walmart, all with branded merchandise items inside (like stickers and photo cards).
Brent Faiyaz, Larger Than Life (ISO Supremacy/UnitedMasters): If fortune favors the bold, hopefully R&B star Brent Faiyaz will be rewarded for surprise-releasing his new Larger Than Life set in the shadow cast by a Taylor Swift release week. The 14-track effort is currently only available in physical form as a pre-order for Nov. 20, but should perform fairly well on streaming – with guest appearances by Missy Elliott, Coco Jones, A$AP Rocky and other big names – and benefit from the momentum of 2022’s well-received Wasteland, which debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 last July.
Various Artists, The Nightmare Before Christmas: Original Motion Picture Soundtrack (Disney) / Michael Jackson, Thriller (Epic): ‘Tis the season, and with Halloween officially passing on Tuesday, you can bet a number of holiday favorites will see big gains on the charts. Those will most likely be led by the Danny Elfman-composed soundtrack to the Tim Burton-produced perennial favorite The Nightmare Before Christmas (celebrating its 30th anniversary this year) and Michael Jackson’s Thriller, one of the most decorated albums in the chart’s history. If enough folks get in the holiday spirit this year, then Nightmare — which has spent 24 weeks on the Billboard 200 and sits at No. 54 on this week’s chart (dated Nov. 4) — may have a shot of passing its prior No. 22 peak, set around this time last year.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Nov. 4), new albums by rock greats Blink-182 and The Rolling Stones vie for the Billboard 200’s top spot, along with the last two albums to have topped the chart.
Blink-182, One More Time… (Columbia): The latest album from pop-punk paragons Blink-182 is the 10th of the band’s career — counting 1994’s independently released Buddha, andfollowing 2019’s appropriately titled Nine. But it’s also the first since 2011’s California to feature guitarist and vocalist Tom DeLonge, who reconnected with the trio’s other two members after co-leader Mark Hoppus was diagnosed with cancer in 2021, undergoing successful treatment and recovery.
Riding the excitement of the reunion of the group’s classic lineup, One More Time has already spawned a pair of Billboard Hot 100 hits in “Edging” and the title track, reaching Nos. 61 and 62 respectively – the group’s highest Hot 100 entries since 2004’s “I Miss You” (No. 42). The album is expected to sell well — helped by 11 different vinyl variants, standard CD and cassette editions, and a deluxe box set with a branded shirt and CD contained inside – and should get extra exposure from a recently announced 2024 U.S. tour, taking them to arenas and stadiums throughout next summer. (The trio also released a new digital edition of the album on their webstore on Wednesday, featuring two new bonus tracks.)
The Rolling Stones, Hackney Diamonds (Geffen/Polydor): Though they’ve remained a consistent top-drawing live act and released the blues covers set Blue & Lonesome in 2016, this month’s Hackney Diamonds is the first album of originals from Rock and Roll Hall of Famers The Rolling Stones since 2005’s A Bigger Bang. Produced by contemporary pop-rock hitmaker Andrew Watt, who’s previously worked with rock legends Elton John and Ozzy Osbourne, Diamonds has been hailed by critics and fans as one of the group’s best later-period works. (John also plays on two of Diamonds‘ 12 tracks, with other huge-name guests on the album including Lady Gaga, Stevie Wonder and Sir Paul McCartney.)
Will it be enough to score the band their 10th No. 1 album on the Billboard 200? The Stones will certainly be giving fans plenty of options for purchase, with a whopping 30+ vinyl variants, as well as two deluxe box sets (with either a branded shirt or a hat, plus a CD), a digipack CD and a CD/Blu-ray box set. The band is fighting against their recent history a little, however, as they haven’t topped the chart since the classic Tattoo You in 1981. (Blink’s most recent No. 1 came in 2016 with California.) If the album hits the Billboard 200’s top 10, it will extend the band’s already-record-setting number of top 10 entries on the chart to 38.
Drake, For All the Dogs (OVO/Republic) & Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana (Rimas): The previous two No. 1s on the Billboard 200 (for the charts dated Oct. 21 & 28, respectively) are still putting up big streaming numbers on a daily basis, currently responsible for a combined 14 of the top 20 spots on the realtime Apple Music chart. Despite being the older release, Drake‘s For All the Dogs probably has the advantage between the two sets, with both a stronger across-the-board showing for its 24 tracks and the current No. 1 song on both the Apple Music chart and the Spotify U.S. Daily Top Songs listing, with the Yeat-featuring “IDGAF.” Dogs earned 164,000 equivalent album units in its second week, so it’s likely that Blink or the Stones will have to post a first-week number comfortably in the six digits to pass it in its third frame.
IN THE MIX
Tyler, the Creator, Wolf (Odd Future): The beloved rapper’s second album, 2013’s Wolf, received a 10th anniversary vinyl reissue pressing earlier this month. Given Tyler’s strong presence in the vinyl market – which helped return his Call Me If You Get Lost to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in April 2022, nine months after its initial debut, following its belated vinyl release – it should result in Wolf making a strong return to next week’s chart. The album initially debuted and peaked at No. 3 in April 2013.
Fuerza Regida, Pa Las Baby’s Y Belikeada (Sony Music Latin/Street Mob/Rancho Humilde): One of the biggest names from the recent boom in regional Mexican music just released one of its biggest albums: Fuerza Regida’s new Pa Las Baby’s set is a whopping 30 tracks, featuring guest appearances from fellow música Mexicana hitmakers Chino Pacas, Gabito Ballesteros and Manuel Torizo, as well as American EDM star producer Marshmello. The set’s chart performance will come almost entirely through its streaming numbers, as the album does not yet have a physical release.
Cher, Cher Christmas (Warner): Cher’s first-ever Christmas album includes covers of holiday standards like “Santa Baby” and “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home),” as well as the set-leading original “DJ Play a Christmas Song,” and guest appearances from fellow stars Michael Bublé, Cyndi Lauper, Stevie Wonder and (of course) Tyga. The album is currently available through four CD variants (each with different covers), though its vinyl issue isn’t expected until later this year. If the album reaches the top 40 – possible for either next week or following its vinyl release – it would give the pop icon a seventh straight decade of charting at least one solo album in the Billboard 200’s top 40, dating back to the 1960s.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 28), Taylor Swift could finally be in line to top the Billboard Hot 100 with her revived “Summer” hit, but may end up neck-and-neck with hits from several other big-name artists, including an old labelmate and chart competitor.
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Have you gotten your ticket for the Eras Tour movie? Plenty of Swifties already have, since the film debuted last weekend (Oct. 13-15) to a $92.8 million opening – already making it fairly easily the biggest concert doc ever after just a few days of release. And although Taylor Swift‘s fans hardly need another reason to consume her catalog in greater numbers, wouldn’t you know it: She has seen a bump in streams and sales since the film’s release, including for her current top song, the resuscitated Lover highlight “Cruel Summer.”
It’s not an enormous streaming bump for “Cruel Summer” (likely not even a double-digit percentage gain week over week), but the song has spiked in sales. “Summer” even returns to the top of the real-time iTunes sales chart this week, as fans are newly inspired by the song’s prominent placement in Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour — or perhaps just sense an opening on the Hot 100 for the longtime fan favorite, originally released in 2019, while it’s a relatively slow week and Swift has an additional boost in momentum. (Also helping: Swift discounting the single to $0.69 on iTunes for the last couple days of the tracking week.)
Will it all be enough to raise the song — which has thus far peaked at No. 3 amid proper single promotion that began in June, and falls to No. 9 this week (on the chart dated Oct. 21) under an avalanche of Drake For All the Dogs debuts – all the way to No. 1? It’s certainly possible, with Drake’s songs naturally receding in their second week, and nothing else in the top 10 poised to make obvious gains. Radio could be key: “Cruel Summer” fell out of the No. 1 spot on Billboard’s Radio Songs listing two weeks ago but has been holding strong at No. 2 since; if it can keep from further slippage there, it may have just enough in an all three Hot 100 components for a real run at the chart’s apex.
Drake feat. J. Cole, “First Person Shooter” / Drake feat. Yeat, “IDGAF” (OVO/Republic): Taylor Swift clearly got under labelmate Drake’s skin last November when her newly remix-boosted Hot 100 conquerer “Anti-Hero” blocked his and 21 Savage’s new “Rich Flex” from debuting at No. 1 on the chart: Might it be time for him to return the favor? Drake will have the advantage of incumbency on the chart, as his J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter” bows atop the listing this week, making for his 13th Hot 100 No. 1 (and Cole’s long-awaited first). The song is expected to drop significantly in streams this week, however, so it might need a boost from a new video (or fan meme) to have much shot at holding the top spot.
That said, it’s not Drake’s only contender in the chart’s top tier: The Yeat-featuring “IDGAF” has passed it on the daily charts on Spotify and Apple Music for about a week now – currently ranking No. 1 on both listings — and seems likely to take over as his top-charter on the Hot 100, as well. The song’s presence in digital sales and on radio is still fairly minimal however, so it will really have to score big in streaming to have much chance at holding off Swift’s surge for a belated No. 1.
Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): Remember this one? “Paint the Town Red” has already spent three weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100, and even amid the Drake surge this week it’s still holding strong at No. 4. Doja‘s smash ranks No. 3 both on Billboard’s Radio Songs and Digital Song Sales charts this week, and though it falls to No. 20 on Streaming Songs, it’s still the second-highest non-Drake entry (behind Zach Bryan’s Kacey Musgraves-featuring “I Remember Everything”). There’s not much about the song that’s still new or growing at this point, but with that kind of consistency across chart components, “Paint” might be every bit as much the single to beat this week as “Summer.”
IN THE MIX
Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana (Rimas): Let’s not forget that one of the biggest pop artists in the world also released a 22-track new album on Friday (Oct. 13). Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana is almost certainly aiming for a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200, but a bow for one of its tracks atop the Hot 100 may be tougher, as Bad Bunny’s radio support and song sales have never been particularly robust, and he’s already ceded his spot atop the daily DSP charts back to Drake. That said, “Monaco” is the best-performing of its new songs so far, and may not debut too far away from the top spot – which the global superstar has still yet to capture on an unaccompanied solo single.
SZA, “Snooze” (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA): Another one for the “so close, yet so far” file: Like “Cruel Summer,” SZA’s sublime ballad “Snooze” has taken a winding path to the Hot 100’s top five, and reached a No. 2 high the two weeks prior to Drake’s current onslaught. The song sits at No. 7 this week – blocked by her own Hot 100-topping Drake collab “Slime You Out,” among others – but holds for a second week atop Radio Songs, and may well at least return to the top five next week after some of the Drake entries fall out. But with the song’s video and Justin Bieber-featuring remix already out, there might not be another card left to play for SZA’s slow-burning hit to get over the top. Maybe she should release her own SOS Tour documentary.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 21), Drake seems sure to land one of the year’s biggest first weeks with his latest album For All the Dogs, but will have to do so without much in the way of physical sales.
Drake, For All the Dogs (OVO/Republic): After seemingly countless delays and false starts, Drake’s long-anticipated For All the Dogs finally arrived at 6:00 a.m. ET on Friday morning (Oct. 6). The rapper’s eighth official solo studio album – not counting collaborative sets, compilations, mixtapes or “playlists” — came not only as the superstar rapper was winding down his It’s All a Blur tour alongside Her Loss co-lead 21 Savage, but right before he announced that Dogs would be his last work before an extended hiatus, as he tended to health issues.
If it’s the last of Drake that fans will get for a while, Dogs is certainly plenty: 23 tracks and 84 minutes, including guest appearances from fellow stars J. Cole, Bad Bunny, SZA (again) and of course Savage, among other big-name and rising artists. The album has received mostly unflattering reviews, but has still dominated streaming services, with 12 of its tracks still in the top 25 of Spotify’s Daily Top USA chart, and all 23 tracks still in the Apple Music real-time top 25 — both currently led by the set’s “IDGAF” featuring Yeat, the leading early contender to become the set’s major breakout hit.
The album should not have a ton of competition for the Billboard 200’s top spot next week – it’s more of a question of how big his debut atop the chart will be. It will have to come without help from a physical release: Despite other A-list stars of his level putting increasing emphasis on vinyl and CD sets to help bolster their first-week numbers, Drake continues to be digital-only, likely in large part due to his tendency to make last-minute edits to his albums. Nonetheless, lack of physical product didn’t hold Her Loss from posting over 400,000 units in its first week last year, or Certified Lover Boy from over 600,000 in 2021 – with For All the Dogs likely to fall somewhere between those two sets in its debut frame.
IN THE MIX
NCT 127, The 5th Album Fact Check (SM Entertainment): South Korean pop group NCT 127 has been a strong contender on the Billboard 200 with each release this decade, hitting the chart’s top five with each of their last three albums (2020’s Neo Zone, 2021’s Sticker and 2022’s Baddies). The group hopes to make it four albums in four years with their fifth LP, Fact Check. Sales of the set will be bolstered by multiple CD packages, including retailer-exclusive variants for Target and Walmart, while the group’s official webstore is also selling nine different alternative versions of the album digitally (each with a different cover and an additional unique bonus track) and three deluxe boxed sets, containing a branded piece of clothing or accessory, along with a physical copy of the album.
(G)I-dle, Heat (88 Rising/Cube Entertainment): Elsewhere in South Korea, popular girl group (G)I-dle are also back with a new set, the Heat EP. This set is for sale in multiple collectible physical versions (all CD packages), including retailer-exclusive variants for Amazon, Barnes & Noble and Target, with some containing randomized merchandise contents (including photocards and bookmarks). The quintet hit No. 41 on the Billboard 200 earlier this year with their prior EP, I Feel.
Junior H, $ad Boyz 4 Life II (Warner Music Latina/Rancho Humilde): Junior H has long been one of the most exciting and acclaimed young artists in Mexican music, but his status hasn’t always shown on the Billboard 200, where he’s yet to reach above No. 138. That should change next week with the release of his latest corridos tumbados collection $ad Boyz 4 Life II – his first since gaining extra crossover attention alongside superstar Peso Pluma on hits like “Lady Gaga” and “Bipolar,” both of which are still on the Hot 100 this week. None of those are on his own album, however, which does not include any collaborations – or have any physical versions for sale — but is still expected to stream very well.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 14), Jung Kook looks to follow his Billboard Hot 100-topping “Seven” with a potential second straight No. 1 debut, while the currently reigning Doja Cat and other artists stand in his way.
Jung Kook feat. Jack Harlow, “3D” (Big Hit/Geffen/Interscope): “Seven,” Jung Kook’s Latto-featuring (and R-rated) pop blast, debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100 back in July, and has since grown into one of the biggest worldwide hits of 2023. It topped the Billboard Global 200 for seven weeks and is still hanging around the Hot 100, ranking at No. 53 this week in its 11th frame on the listing (dated Oct. 7). Now, the solo star is in contention for a second straight debut atop the chart, with new song “3D.”
Sales will be key for the single — which features American rap star Jack Harlow, and is co-produced by longtime hitmaker BloodPop and “Dynamite” producer David Stewart. The song was released Friday, Sept. 29 and then augmented Monday, Oct. 2, as part of the seven-track 3D: The Remixes set — which also includes an instrumental version, an alternate version, a clean edit, a remix from avant-pop maestro A.G. Cook, and both sped-up and slowed-down versions. All seven tracks are currently in the top eight of the iTunes real-time chart, with the main version of “3D” still reigning five days after its release.
The question is if it will stream as well as “Seven,” which not only racked up over 150,000 in song sales in its first week, according to Luminate, but also a very impressive 21.9 million streams, including a No. 1 debut on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. The streaming numbers for “3D” on Spotify and elsewhere have been stable, but not as resounding so far – meaning the song might ultimately need its strong sales to continue throughout the remainder of the week for the song to have a real chance of nabbing the No. 1 spot on next week’s Hot 100.
Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): Doja Cat’s Scarlet biggest single returns to the Hot 100’s top spot for a second frame this week, following the release of the full album. Its streams will likely recede in the album’s second week, but airplay numbers continue to grow for the Dionne Warwick-sampling pop-rap song, which climbs 9-7 on Billboard’s Radio Songs chart this week, a new peak. If the gains in airplay continue to offset any losses in streaming – which have been relatively minimal to begin with, considering the song still leads on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and is No. 4 on Apple Music’s real-time chart – it should have a pretty good shot to hang on for a third week at No. 1.
SZA, “Snooze” (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA): The little SZA single that could keeps scaling the Hot 100, hitting yet another new peak this week in its 42nd frame on the listing. She’s finally running out of space on the chart, though – at No. 2, there’s only one spot left to climb to. It could be tough for her to get there next week: The song still trails “Paint” in streams and sales, while the gap between the two is closing on radio (though “Snooze” is No. 3 on Radio Songs and still gaining) – and as she’s already released both the music video and the Justin Bieber-featuring acoustic remix of the song, SZA may be running out of ammo to shoot the track over the top. Still, few would have bet on the song getting this far, so it’d be a little foolish to doubt its ability to grab that final rung.
IN THE MIX
Tate McRae, “Greedy” (RCA): McRae’s latest isn’t likely to majorly contend for the Hot 100’s apex this week – but if it keeps growing at the rate it has been, that may not be too far off. The song rises 33-24 in its second week on the Hot 100, and continues to grow from its fast start on streaming, while radio is starting to take notice. It’s also already No. 4 on the Global 200 in its second week. At a time when the kind of classic triple-threat mold of stardom has been a little absent from top 40’s center – and given Ariana Grande in particular has been mostly out of the mix for a decently long period – there’s certainly room for McRae, her catchy new song and captivating new video to finally elbow their way into pop’s inner circle.
*NSYNC, “Better Place” (DreamWorks/RCA): The first new single in 20 years from one of the most successful pop groups of all-time – must be set for a pretty thunderous chart debut, right? Well… maybe. “Better Place” sold respectably enough in its early release this week to possibly make some kind of Hot 100 impact. But the new song, found on the upcoming Trolls Band Together soundtrack, bowed in the midst of a messy promotional situation (due to the recently ended writers’ strike and still-ongoing actors’ strike), to something of a mixed reception from pop fans – resulting in the early streaming numbers for “Place” being less than exceptional. In other words, Jung Kook’s old group is probably safe for another week in its standing as the most recent male vocal group to capture the chart’s top spot.
