State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard 200 dated Oct. 4, we look at a pack of new releases, led by Future’s Mixtape Pluto set, which could make him just the second artist this decade to notch three No. 1 albums in a calendar year.
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Future, Mixtape Pluto (Freebandz/Epic): Six months after helping to fire the opening shot that set off the hip-hop World War that was the Kendrick Lamar-Drake feud, with the Lamar-featuring “Like That” single off his and producer co-star Metro Boomin’s first of two We Still Don’t Trust You sets, rap superstar Future is back with his third all-new album of 2024. Mixtape Pluto debuted on Friday (Sept. 20), though with no big-name guests throwing down gauntlets for the rest of the rap world to respond to – no guests of any kind, actually, as the set features Future as the lone credited performer on all 17 of the tracks on its streaming release.
Nonetheless, the set has performed predictably well on streaming – particularly on Apple Music, where it blanketed the top of the real-time charts upon its Friday release, and still claims the entire top five as of Wednesday. (It’s been a little less prolific on Spotify, where it currently holds just five spots in the entire Daily Top Songs USA top 200, and none in the top 40.) Unlike some other recent Future releases (and despite its mixtape billing), however, this album has the advantage of a physical release to go with it – which is only 11 tracks long, but is available on both CD and vinyl on his webstore and at some brick-and-mortar stores.
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If Future debuts atop the Billboard 200 with Mixtape Pluto, it would mark his eighth consecutive official solo album to do so, dating back to DS2 – as well as his 11th No. 1 album overall, moving him into a five-way tie with Barbra Streisand, Bruce Springsteen, Ye and Eminem for the fourth-most such albums in Billboard 200 history. It would also be his third No. 1 of 2024 alone, after We Don’t Trust You and We Still Don’t Trust You, which would make him just the second artist this decade to score three No. 1 albums in the same calendar year – following (of course) Taylor Swift, who pulled off the achievement in 2021 with Evermore, Fearless (Taylor’s Version) and Red (Taylor’s Version) — and the first to debut three albums there in one year (Evermore having previously topped the chart in 2020).
Katy Perry, 143 (Capitol): It’s been one of the most buzzed-about promo campaigns of 2024, although not always for the best reasons: Katy Perry’s 143 debuts this week after months of lead-up, kicked off by the release of July lead single “Woman’s World,” which drew negative reviews and lasted just one week on the Billboard Hot 100. Subsequent advance tracks were less coldly received but made minimal commercial impact, though Perry’s career-spanning performance while receiving the Video Vanguard award at the MTV Video Music Awards two weeks ago (Sept. 11) was well-received.
The set is finally out now, and features guest turns from hitmakers 21 Savage, Kim Petras, JID and Doechii, the latter of whom appeared on stage with Perry at the VMAs to perform their Crystal Waters-lifting “I’m His, He’s Mine.” While the set does not appear to be generating any significant streaming hits, it will have the sales advantage of an array of physical releases – with eight vinyl variants (including some retail exclusives, as well as a signed edition exclusive to her d2c), a couple CD variants (including a signed edition exclusive to her d2c and a deluxe-packaging edition with collectible ephemera) and even a cassette.
Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Speaking of the VMAs: One of its other most notable performers and winners is also in the hunt for the No. 1 spot this week. Chappell Roan, who took home best new artist and delivered a memorable medieval performance of standalone single “Good Luck, Babe!” at the ceremonies, recently celebrated the one-year anniversary of her slow-developing blockbuster The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess with a new physical reissue of the set, including multiple new vinyl variants.
It could be the best chance that the set, which climbed all the way to No. 2 on the Billboard 200 after 20 weeks on the chart, has to get that final boost that it needs to reach No. 1 – though with Future’s combined streaming and sales numbers, it might be a tough week for it to finally get over the top. However, the album has been hanging in the top five for months now, with no real signs that its streaming dominance is coming to an end, so count it out at your own peril.
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Lil Tecca, Plan A (Galactic/Republic): While he hasn’t had a major Hot 100 hit since 2019’s “Ransom,” Lil Tecca has proved himself a fairly reliable performer on streaming in the years since – and scored an impressive slow-burner last year with the “500 Lbs” single. His three official studio albums to date have all bowed around the border of the top 10 (No. 10 for 2020’s Virgo World, No. 10 for 2021’s We Love You Tecca 2 and No. 11 for 2023’s Tec), and this month’s Plan A will likely be shooting for roughly the same range – with strong streaming performance and multiple digital variants available for sale on his webstore, including one digitally signed version and one with two bonus tracks.
Keith Urban, High (Capitol Nashville / Hit Red): Keith Urban’s first album in four years features the top 20 Country Airplay hit “Messed Up as Me,” and is available in four vinyl variants and three CD variants, including a couple retail exclusives with exclusive branded paper merch. Urban has a streak of eight consecutive top 10 studio albums on the Billboard 200 to protect, a run which dates back to Be Here in 2004.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the charts dated Sept. 28, we head back to the Billboard 200, where Sabrina Carpenter’s latest has reigned for its first three weeks – but now faces a familiar challenger, again revitalized.
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Sabrina Carpenter, Short N’ Sweet (Island): For a 12-track album with no expanded deluxe edition available on DSPs, the endurance in consumption for Sabrina Carpenter’s Short N’ Sweet has been damn impressive. After bowing atop the Billboard 200 with 362,000 units earned in its debut week, the set has not only held at No. 1 over the last two weeks (amidst a not-particularly-crowded release schedule), but continued to post unit totals in the six digits – 117,000 in its third week – a combo that only her good buddy Taylor Swift had previously managed to pull off this year, of course with her 15-week No. 1 The Tortured Poets Department.
The set should continue to slide in its fourth week, but only slowly – the album still holds four of the top 10 spots on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and three on the Apple Music real-time update, with fan favorite “Bed Chem” slowly rising towards the territory of the set’s top-charting trio: “Espresso,” “Please Please Please” and “Taste.” SnS may also benefit some from Carpenter’s well-received debut performance on the VMAs mainstage last Wednesday (Sept. 11), where she played a medley of those three hits (and made out with an alien), while also picking up the song of the year Moonperson for “Espresso.”
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Travis Scott, Days Before Rodeo (Cactus Jack/Epic): If Carpenter thought she had vanquished Travis Scott for good during their showdown for the top spot three weeks earlier – where Short N’ Sweet edged out Days Before Rodeo for No. 1 by a margin of under 1,000 units, one of the year’s closest races – she may have to think twice next week. While Scott’s album has already fallen from No. 2 to No. 106 on the Billboard 200, and the rapper already pulled out many of the stops with the digital reissue of his beloved 2014 mixtape during its first week of re-release, he had not yet pushed the button on shipping out any vinyl copies of the album.
That changes this week, as the vinyl edition of Days Before Rodeo has begun to ship to fans — both the vinyl LP (in its standard and deluxe version, with different packaging between the two) and its two deluxe vinyl boxed sets (one with a branded hoodie and an album, and one with a branded T-shirt and an album). Though the streaming presence of Days Before Rodeo is fairly minimal compared to the album-wide dominance of Short N’ Sweet, that sales advantage might be massive enough – with Scott’s fanbase long proven to be willing to shell out for his physical releases – to get it back in the hunt on the Billboard 200 this week, and very possibly over the top for the first time.
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Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace) (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope): Speaking of last week’s VMAs – they were led by MTV icon Eminem, who reassembled the Slim Shady Army from his classic 2000 performance of “The Real Slim Shady” for his show-opening performance of current hit “Houdini.” That song’s parent album, his career-bookending The Death of Slim Shady, should see a small bump from that performance next week – but will be helped out even more by a new deluxe edition of the set, which reached digital retailers and streamers on Friday, as well as the release of the album’s CD version, both in a wide general release, and as a d2c-exclusive version with an alternate album cover.
Miranda Lambert, Postcards From Texas (Vanner/Republic/Big Loud): Always good to get a new LP from country great Miranda Lambert, who has reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 with each of her last seven unaccompanied solo sets – most recently with the No. 4-charting Palomino in 2021. The album is available for sale on CD and vinyl, with signed copies also purchasable of both through her webstore.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard Hot 100 dated Sept. 14, we look at a race that’s been dominated by one song for about two months now – and what songs, if any, may be closing the gap in the near future.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Well, he narrowly lost out on Billboard’s official Song of the Summer to Post Malone and Morgan Wallen with “I Had Some Help” — another week or two and that race might’ve gotten really interesting – but Shaboozey can content himself that he’s held on at No. 1 for yet another week on the Hot 100. That’s eight weeks total now for “A Bar Song,” marking the longest run of 2024, and the longest for anyone since (again) Morgan Wallen, whose “Last Night” reigned for twice that long in 2023.
And it doesn’t appear to be fading much yet, either. It remains in the top five on Streaming Songs and atop atop both Digital Song Sales (12 weeks) and Radio Songs (five weeks). Its radio dominance also includes six weeks thus far atop the Country Airplay chart – one week away from passing Carrie Underwood’s “Jesus, Take the Wheel” for the longest-reigning country career-establishing No. 1 (defined as an artist’s first Country Airplay entry as a lead artist, or their initial song promoted to country radio) in the chart’s history. As long as its cross-platform dominance holds strong — it’s also been No. 1 the past two weeks on Adult Pop Airplay – it will remain a contender for the top spot; another artist is gonna have to really rise up to take the crown from it.
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Sabrina Carpenter, “Taste,” “Please Please Please” & “Espresso” (Island): Could Sabrina Carpenter be the artist to do that? She certainly has strength in numbers going for her: Carpenter holds the Nos. 2-4 spots on the Hot 100 this week (dated Sept. 7), as her Short n’ Sweet album conquers the Billboard 200 albums chart. Long-running hits “Please Please Please” (No. 1 peak) and “Espresso” (No. 3) shoot back up to Nos. 3 and 4 on the chart, respectively, while just above them, the brand-new “Taste” bows at No. 2, thanks in large part to a spicy new music video with TV and film star Jenna Ortega as its co-lead.
All three should be strong performers for some time. “Taste” remains atop essentially all major streaming charts – including Apple Music’s real-time listing, Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and YouTube’s Trending Music – over a week after its release, while “Please Please Please” climbs to No. 1 on Pop Airplay and “Espresso” holds at No. 3 on the overall Radio Songs chart. The biggest issue with Carpenter claiming the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot soon might be a kind of vote-splitting effect — particularly on the airwaves, where programmers simply have more songs of hers right now than they know what to do with.
“Taste” has momentum on its side, and is already nearing the 50-position Radio Songs listing. If it can pick up enough airplay before its streaming totals really start to drop, it could close the gap with “A Bar Song” before too long. In the meantime, an extra boost from Carpenter would help – like, say, with a memorable performance at the MTV Video Music Awards, where she’s scheduled to perform next Wednesday (Sept. 11).
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Meanwhile, momentum has hardly sagged at all for the new Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars duet – which falls to No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week thanks to the Sabrina surge, but holds in the top three on both Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs, and is already bounding up Radio Songs, jumping 45-36 this week. And despite falling on Streaming Songs post-Short n’ Sweet, it’s actually up in total streams for the week, and even hits No. 1 on both Billboard Global charts.
Will the song be in position to take over the Hot 100’s top spot when the Gaga-starring Joker: Folie a Deux – which “Smile” does not appear to be officially connected to, but which it does have some spiritual kinship with via its title – hits American theaters in October? Will it even have to wait that long?
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG) & Chappell Roan, “Good Luck Babe” (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Both of these now-long-running (if relatively slower-building) hits seem to have fallen behind in the race a bit, as they’ve been passed by the big-debuting “Taste” and “Smile.” But both are still definitely in the mix, with both holding in the top 10 on Streaming Songs, and “Birds” having reached the top 10 on Radio Songs, with “Babe” likely to join it there next week. The VMAs next week may also hold bump potential for both: Eilish is not performing but is a four-time nominee, while Roan is making her debut on the VMAs stage and is also up for four awards.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Aug. 24, Taylor Swift’s incumbent Tortured Poets Department is mostly free from new challengers – but one that’s been rising for months could finally start to pose a real threat.
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Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Against all odds, Chappellmania just continues to keep spreading, as seemingly every week another festival performance or other big cultural moment keeps Roan a rising tide. Last week, it was a historically massive Lollapalooza performance in luchador gear, this week, it’s a similarly gargantuan Outside Lands gig as a majorette – with a quasi-viral moment during her “Hot to Go” performance where she chastised the VIP section for not singing along.
That hit is one of seven Chappell Roan songs scaling the Billboard Hot 100 (dated Aug. 17) this week – with “My Kink Is Karma” becoming the sixth cut from her breakthrough debut The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess to join the party. Meanwhile, Midwest Princess rises to a new peak of No. 3 on the Billboard 200, climbing from No. 4 the previous week (and No. 5 the week before). With Ye & Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 2 (No. 2 on the chart this week) all but sure to drop some in its second week of release, and no major debuts expected to impact the chart’s top five, it seems likely Midwest Princess is about to make it four weeks in a row.
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Could it have the No. 1 spot in its sights? To reach that peak, of course, it will have to depose Taylor Swift’s 14-week No. 1 The Tortured Poets Department. On last week’s Billboard 200, Swift’s blockbuster was still way ahead of Roan’s debut – 142,000 units to 64,000 – but that Poets number was boosted by a wide variety of just-released and reissued digital and physical editions of the album that helped account for a 606% gain in sales. The week before, Poets secured the No. 1 with 71,000 units – which could be much more matchable for Midwest Princess, should it continue to gain steadily and should Swift not release or re-release more exclusive editions of her latest. (Roan’s album has been discounted to $6.99 in the iTunes store, which may also help spur some extra sales.)
In any event, if Roan doesn’t seize the top prize next week, she may find the race more crowded in the charts to come. It’s been a relatively fallow period for major new releases compared to earlier in the year, but this Friday, veteran hitmaker Post Malone releases his long-anticipated (and already multi-hit-spawning) country pivot album F1-Trillion — and a week later, newly minted pop superstar Sabrina Carpenter will look to reclaim the late summer with the release of her new album Short n’ Sweet. But then again, maybe Roan will play it patiently and wait for her moment – which could come around the one-year anniversary of Midwest Princess in September, as both a new anniversary edition and a new Target color variant of the album were recently made available for preorder, with the official release date listed as Sept. 20.
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): Roan’s and Swift’s albums have all but pulled even in terms of their streaming performances – so once again, it’s all down to sales for Tortured Poets, which just held off Vultures 2 to claim its 14th week at No. 1. So far this tracking week, Swift does not appear to have released any new variants for the album, so if she wants to grab a 15th week at No. 1 – leaving her just four shy of Morgan Wallen’s decade-best 19-week mark, set with 2023’s One Thing at a Time – she’ll either need to work on some last-minute sales-boosters, or simply hope that Roan’s set isn’t quite ready to catch up to hers yet.
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Latto, Sugar Honey Iced Tea (Streamcut/RCA): The latest from Billboard July cover star Latto is a 17-track affair – 21 if you count a “bonus disc” featuring multiple versions of previous hit singles “Put It on Da Floor” and “Sunday Service” — with guest features from recognizable names like Megan Thee Stallion, Ciara and Teezo Touchdown. The set’s performance might be hindered by its lack of physical release – and the lack of a current hit as established as those bonus tracks – but it should still stream well and be helped by a deluxe edition (featuring the new bonus cut “Chicken Grease”) released on Tuesday.
Polo G, Hood Poet (Columbia): It wasn’t long ago that Polo G was a regular chart-topper, besting both the Billboard 200 (with third album Hall of Fame) and the Hot 100 (with runaway hit “Rapstar”) in 2021. The hits have dried up some for the Chicago rapper in the years since, but Hall of Fame follow-up Hood Poet dropped last Friday, and should also stream well – with a star-studded tracklist that includes cameos from hitmakers Lil Durk, GloRilla, The Kid LAROI and many more.
Beabadoobee, This Is How Tomorrow Moves (Dirty Hit): The alt-rock singer-songwriter born Beatrice Laus has long seemed on the verge of a major commercial breakthrough, with a devoted cult fanbase and viral streaming hits like “The Perfect Pair” and “Glue Song.” Beabadoobee seems sure to at least get her highest-charting album on the Billboard 200 with third LP This Is How Tomorrow Moves – having previously reached No. 189 with 2020’s Fake It Flowers — with the new set being made available on cassette, standard and signed CD, and six different vinyl variants.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming charts dated Aug. 10, we look at two artists who have largely defined the summer in pop music so far, and who are experiencing new gains after Kamala Harris’ announced presidential candidacy.
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Chappell Roan, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Since climbing to a peak of No. 5 on the Billboard 200 dated July 13, Chappell Roan‘s Midwest Princess has hung around the top 10 of the chart, landing at No. 8 this week. Improbably, the album continues to grow in streams — most recently thanks in large part to a surge in interest and consumption after “Femininomenon,” the album’s anthemic lead track, was used in a promotional TikTok from the official Kamala Harris account just days after Harris became the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination.
“Femininomenon” debuts at No. 96 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, the lowest of an incredible five songs from Midwest Princess which have bowed on the chart in the past two months and are still working their way up its rankings. Each of the other four reaches a new peak position this week: “Hot to Go!” is the highest at No. 26, while “Red Wine Supernova” reaches No. 47, “Pink Pony Club” No. 50 and “Casual” No. 79. None of the songs has yet found a major foothold at radio, which would likely be the final step in them threatening for the chart’s top tier, but “Hot to Go!’ and “Red Wine Supernova” have both started to gather steam on the top 40 airwaves.
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In the meantime, with steady streaming and sales numbers, Midwest Princess could move back up on the Billboard 200 this upcoming week. There aren’t major new Friday releases currently threatening for a top debut, and with the sales-driven bows of Stray Kids’ ATE and Jimin’s MUSE likely to take a hit in their second week, there should be an opening for the album to return to the top five – and if it can continue to build on its recent momentum, it may even challenge for a new peak of No. 4. It will still have its work cut out to pass the 30-plus-track streaming behemoths from Taylor Swift and Morgan Wallen that have been lodged near the top of the Billboard 200 since their respective releases, but it should be in the mix for some time to come, and with another extra song boost or two – or perhaps a physical reissue – it wouldn’t be inconceivable that it could get to No. 1 before year’s end.
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Arguably the most impressive thing about the run that Midwest Princess has had on the Billboard 200 is that it’s making it without even getting any help from the song that’s actually Roan’s biggest of all of 2024. “Good Luck, Babe!” was released in April as a standalone single, unattached thus far to Midwest Princess or any other album of hers, and it has taken her further on the Hot 100 than any of that album’s breakout hits. This week, “Babe” returns to its peak of No. 10, which it originally reached on the chart dated July 13, while gaining on both the Streaming Songs (9-7) and Digital Song Sales (22-17) charts.
More important to its chart potential is that it has finally clicked the last piece of the puzzle into place: major radio support. Unlike the Midwest Princess hits, “Babe” has been fully (if somewhat belatedly) embraced by top 40 radio: It climbs 12-9 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart this week, and 25-21 on the all-format Radio Songs listing. As “Babe” continues to expand on the airwaves, and with no major new song releases expected to provide additional traffic in front of it on the Hot 100, it has a good chance of getting even higher on the chart next week. And with plenty of room for it still to grow – and streaming and sales support also strong – a run to the top five could certainly be in play for the song in the weeks to come.
Could it get to No. 1? It’s still well behind such four-quadrant smashes as Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” Post Malone and Morgan Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” and Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” at the top of the chart, so it would take some considerable growth across all metrics for “Babe” to really mount a challenge there. But it’s worth noting that as far as “Babe” has already come, it’s done so without some of the more traditional promotional tactics used to boost songs in its position – no official remixes, no major national performances of it beyond a Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon appearance, not even a non-lyric music video. So if it gets close, there’s plenty of cards for Roan still to play to get it that final push over the top.
Charli XCX, Brat (Atlantic/AG): The season familiarly known as Brat Summer has mostly come with impressive, but not quite overwhelming chart returns. Brat did debut at No. 3 on the Billboard 200, which marked a career-best showing for Charli XCX, but three weeks later it was out of the top 10, and it’s been hanging around the chart’s teens ever since. Meanwhile, before this week, she’d only launched two tracks from it onto the Hot 100, and neither in the top half – lead cut “360” debuted at No. 73 the same week as the album’s bow and had hung around the chart’s bottom quadrant since, while “Girl, So Confusing” entered at a slightly higher No. 63 two weeks later following the release of its Lorde-featuring remix, and was off the chart altogether a couple weeks after that.
But three words might have turned around the entire chart momentum of Brat Summer. The Sunday (July 21) that President Joe Biden officially dropped his re-election campaign and endorsed Kamala Harris as his replacement, Charli tweeted “Kamala IS Brat” — unofficially making her exciting new album the soundtrack to the global moment. Harris’ campaign seized said moment by adapting Brat’s already-iconic cover design for the header on their HQ’s official Twitter page, and within days, CNN was airing discussions about Brat Summer and what kind of impact the coolest pop star in the world could have on this year’s presidential election.
Despite seeing respectable gains in both sales and streams following last week’s spike in interest, Brat actually slides 13-14 on the latest Billboard 200 – thanks to a glut of high-performing new albums released at the start of the tracking week, four of which debut ahead of it on the chart. But with the album continuing to grow in both sales and streams so far this week, next week it could be ticketed for a trip back to the top 10, its first time back in the region since the chart dated July 6, which was its third frame on the listing.
In the meantime, two songs from Brat are surging on the Hot 100. “360” hits a new peak of No. 55 this week, while the TikTok-approved “Apple” debuts at No. 81. A top 40 hit could be in Brat’s future, as both songs still have room to grow – the latter has major virality on its side, with everyone from Twisters star Glen Powell to Foo Fighters frontman Dave Grohl doing the dance challenge that helped it light up social media, while “360” is starting to make inroads at radio, up 56% in plays for the week, according to Luminate, and bubbling under the Pop Airplay chart. And the album might not be done spawning hits yet: “365,” the album’s meme-spawning closing complement to “360,” has been rising in streams and sales the past couple weeks, and re-enters Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart today.
The album is still pretty far from being a major contender for the top spot on the Billboard 200. But who knows? With the twists and turns that Charli’s season has already taken, we’d be foolish to bet against her finding new ways to challenge for supremacy on the chart, and officially cement Brat Summer in the 2024 record books. (Perhaps a new remix to one of the album’s deluxe edition bonus tracks — widely believed to be co-starring alt-pop superstar Billie Eilish — will be one of them.)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, we take stock of the current Song of the Summer race, which is tighter this year than the past few, thanks to sparring smashes between Post Malone & Morgan Wallen, Shaboozey, Kendrick Lamar and Sabrina Carpenter.
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Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): A couple months ago, it seemed like a pretty safe bet that Post Malone and Morgan Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” would reign all season on Billboard’s Songs of the Summer chart. The song blasted to No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 immediately upon its May release – zooming past an unusually stacked array of major hits in the top 10 at the time — with staggeringly big numbers across the board. As radio airplay picked up for it at a blinding pace and its sales and streaming numbers stayed strong, it looked like it might follow the path of Wallen’s 2023 smash, “Last Night,” which both started and ended the season atop the Songs of the Summer chart, while reigning for four total months on the Hot 100.
And in truth, it still very well might. “I Had Some Help” has ruled the Songs of the Summer chart for all eight weeks of the list’s 2024 existence thus far, and has topped the Hot 100 for six frames, as well. Its numbers remain strong in all areas: On this week’s charts (dated July 27), it remains in the top five on Radio Songs (No. 1, its fourth week atop the chart) Streaming Songs (No. 3) and Digital Song Sales (No. 4). It’s still gaining on the airwaves, and should get an extra late-summer boost when Posty releases his long-anticipated full country album, F-1 Trillion (due Aug. 16).
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But “I Had Some Help” has had some competition. After towering over the rest of the Hot 100 for its first five weeks of release, “Help” briefly ceded the crown to Sabrina Carpenter’s “Please Please Please.” Then after recapturing it the next week, “Help” again let the title slip the following frame — and in the two weeks since, it’s yet to reclaim it, as Shaboozey and Kendrick Lamar have taken turns trading off the top spot.
Which is hardly to say that “Help” has fallen off dramatically or unexpectedly: It’s naturally experiencing a slow decrease in streams and sales, but it’s also still No. 2 on this week’s Hot 100, and very much still a threat to jump back up to No. 1 any time the competition sags for a week or two. However, its chances of matching or even nearing the 16 weeks (!!) “Last Night” spent atop the Hot 100 last year are growing slim — and while it remains the clear Song of the Summer frontrunner, it also remains vulnerable in the race if any of the songs beneath it experience another power surge.
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Though it initially seemed like it would be scrapping with Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” on the undercard for this summer’s title fight, Shaboozey‘s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has elbowed its way into the main event. With consistently impressive streaming numbers and downright stunning sales since its April release, radio was the final piece of the puzzle for “A Bar Song” — and it has delivered on that front, attracting airplay from a historic array of radio formats, and climbing all the way to No. 2 on Radio Songs so far, behind “Help.” Like that song, “Bar Song” ranks in the top five on each of the Hot 100’s three component charts this week — and actually tops “Help” with its No. 2 placement on both Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales.
More crucially, “Bar Song” also tops “Help” on the Hot 100 this week — its second frame atop the chart. That’s still four behind Post and Morgan, of course, so “Bar Song” has plenty of catching up to do if it wants to really challenge “Help.” But it helps that “Bar Song” has also been in the fight since the very beginning of this SotS season — debuting at No. 4 on Songs of the Summer and working its way up to No. 2 by the end of June — so if it continues growing on radio as it has so far and “Help” starts to recede a little, or if it gets a momentum-boosting remix or new video, there’s certainly a chance that “Bar Song” could steal this race yet.
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Pre-”I Had Some Help,” it looked like “Not Like Us” was going to be the song to beat this summer. It debuted atop the (already very crowded) Hot 100 with an incomplete first week of tracking, thanks to otherworldly levels of excitement around it as the knockout punch in the increasingly fevered back-and-forth between Kendrick Lamar and rival-to-the-north Drake. “I Had Some Help” quite impressively managed to lap it the very next week, and as interest in the beef died down (and radio understandably was slower to pick up the virulent missive than the cartoonishly crossover-friendly “Help”), it seemed like “Not Like Us” would bow out of the Song of the Summer race before it even really began.
But as the hip-hop and pop worlds should’ve learned from his bout with Drake in the first place, you can never count out Kung Fu Kenny. Lamar’s new signature smash was doubly adrenalized by his much-publicized, nationally-streamed Juneteenth concert spectacular The Pop Out, and then by the song’s official music video, which dropped on July 4. Following the boost from the latter, “Not Like Us” even reclaimed the Hot 100’s top spot for the first time in two months. It’s back down to No. 3 on this week’s listing, and may have finally run out of extra lives, but we’re twice bitten, three times shy there — especially since it’s up 6% in airplay this week, according to Luminate, and at No. 9 on Radio Songs, and we still haven’t gotten any kind of official remix for the song.
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” & “Please Please Please” (Island/Republic): If you could somehow merge the popularity and momentum from Sabrina Carpenter’s two summer singles so far, you’d undoubtedly have yourself the song of the season: “Espresso” and “Please Please Please” both reached the Hot 100’s top five (the latter marking her first leader), and have been fixtures of the Songs of the Summer’s top 10, with Carpenter the only artist with multiple entries in the 20-position seasonal chart’s top half this week. With Carpenter’s new album due the week after Post Malone’s in August, her two four-quadrant smashes will undoubtedly receive a sizeable bump. But if she wants to challenge for the SotS No. 1 spot with either song, she won’t be able to wait around for that — neither is higher than No. 5 on the chart this week, and Billboard’s summer season officially ends following the chart dated Sept. 7.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated July 27), Taylor Swift’s Billboard 200 reign faces its greatest challenger yet in the form of Eminem’s alter-ego-killing latest.
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Eminem, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace) (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope): If you’re a regular reader of The Contenders and are rolling your eyes at yet another “Could [Non-Taylor Swift Artist] Finally Knock Taylor Swift From Atop the Billboard 200?” type headline, it’d be hard to blame you. In the past three months, we’ve seen such charges mounted by the likes of Billie Eilish, Gracie Abrams and (most recently) Zach Bryan, and all have ultimately fallen short: Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department has now reigned uninterrupted on the chart for a full 12 weeks, becoming the longest-running No. 1 of her career, and tying Morgan Wallen for the longest consecutive rule of the decade.
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But this week, Swift faces a challenger unlike any she’s faced in Poets’ lifetime – from one of just a handful of artists this century who can legitimately claim to be in the same galaxy of commercial success. Eminem, one of the best-selling solo recording artists of all-time – with two RIAA diamond-certified albums to his name, and a stunning 10 consecutive No. 1 sets on the Billboard 200, a streak dating back to 2000’s The Marshall Mathers LP – returns this week with his first new album in four years. What’s more, the set aims to be something of a career bookend for the veteran rapper, as it trumpets The Death of Slim Shady – Em supposedly killing off the alter-ego persona that helped vault him to superstardom a quarter-century ago.
The album is already off to a strong start at streaming, with every one of its 19 tracks – except for the 24-second “All You Got” skit – debuting in the top 100 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart after its Friday (July 12) release, and most of them remaining in the region at mid-week. What’s more, the set already has one pre-certified smash in lead single “Houdini” — which debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 in June and is still lingering around the top 20 – and another more modest hit in the Big Sean and BabyTron collab “Tobey,” which vaults 95-27 on the chart in its first full week of release.
Streaming will have to make up the bulk of The Death of Slim Shady’s consumption, as the album has not yet been released in physical form. (The CD version of it is currently scheduled for a Sept. 13 release, with cassette and vinyl due on Oct. 25). However, there were two D2C digital editions of the album for purchase, both available for a limited time before the set’s release, and both with their own exclusive bonus track – one with “Kyrie & Luka” (featuring 2 Chainz) and one with “Like My Shit” (featuring FIFTEENAFTER) — and a third one was released today, with both bonus tracks and a new “Steve Berman” skit.
Eminem’s prior album, 2020’s Music to Be Murdered By, moved 279,000 in its first week, without the benefit of an advance single or a career-spanning narrative hook. If the rapper’s latest again debuts with a number in the 200,000s, it would mark a bigger week than Swift has had for Poets since its fifth week on top, for the chart week dated June 1. And if Em is able to secure the No. 1 with Death of Slim Shady, his 11th consecutive all-new album to hit No. 1 would again tie Ye (formerly Kanye West) — who extended his own run earlier this year with the Ty Dolla $ign teamup Vultures 1 — for the longest such streak in Billboard 200 history.
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): Are there any cards left for Taylor Swift to play to maintain her already-historic Poets run atop the Billboard 200? With Swift’s restocked exclusive CD variants of the album shipping last week – helping Poets to fend off Zach Bryan’s six-digit first full week for The Great American Bar Scene, and securing Swift her first 12-week run at No. 1 – and a truly formidable opponent arriving this week with Eminem’s latest, it certainly feels like the greatest chance yet that the blockbuster finally cedes the top spot.
Still, there is more history for Swift to make with one more frame at the chart’s apex: a 13th consecutive week at No. 1 would make it just the second album to reign consecutively for that long on the 200 following its debut, tying the mark set nearly a half-century ago by Stevie Wonder’s Songs in the Key of Life. Never count out Taylor Swift until every last sale and stream is counted.
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ENHYPEN, Romance: Untold (Belift/Genie/Stone): In a less loaded week, we might have been talking about whether South Korean pop group ENHYPEN was headed for its first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200. The boy band’s second Korean-language full-length album follows last year’s Orange Blood EP, which brought ENHYPEN to the chart’s top five, and is available for purchase in a stunning 17 different CD variants — including exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart and the group’s webstore; all with collectible paper ephemera like photocards, stickers, and a poster – as well as a pair of vinyl editions.
Megan Moroney, Am I Okay? (Sony/Columbia): While Megan Moroney has yet to score another radio hit on the scale of her 2022 breakthrough “Tennessee Orange,” the country singer-songwriter has developed an impressive fan following, which looks ready to pay off with second full-length Am I Okay? The set is off to a strong start in both sales and streams, with the addictive title track leading the way on DSPs, and the album being sold in three deluxe CD boxed sets and three different vinyl editions, including a signed version exclusive to her webstore.
Clairo, Charm (Clairo Records): After reaching the top 20 on Polydor/Republic in 2021 with sophomore album Sling, Clairo went independent – self-releasing her third album Charm on Friday. The singer-songwriter born Claire Cottrill does not seem to be suffering commercially for her move: The warmer-sounding album already has a streaming hit in lead single “Sexy to Someone,” and appears set for impressive first-week sales – helped by eight different-colored vinyl variants and four CD boxed sets, three with a T-shirt and one with a handkerchief – as well as perhaps her best showing yet on the Billboard 200.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated July 20), Taylor Swift aims to secure her longest run at No. 1 to date, but may be interrupted by another star’s new set.
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Zach Bryan, The Great American Bar Scene (Belting Bronco/Warner): The 2020s have marked one long rise to superstardom for singer-songwriter Zach Bryan. The country and Americana artist’s presence on streaming and as a live draw grew from project to project, with his mainstream breakthrough coming in 2022 with his American Heartbreak album and its hit single “Something in the Orange,” and then hitting a new peak in 2023 with his Billboard 200-topping self-titled set and its accompanying Billboard Hot 100-topping Kacey Musgraves collab “I Remember Everything.” Now, in the midst of an arenas-and-stadiums U.S. tour, Bryan releases his first album as a no-doubt A-lister: The Great American Bar Scene.
The 18-track new set already boasts one major hit in lead single “Pink Skies,” which debuted at No. 6 on the Hot 100 in June and is still hanging around the chart’s top 15 this week, and a second Hot 100 entry in “Purple Gas,” which features Noeline Hofmann (and is a redo of a song she originally wrote and recorded). The record also features first-time collaborations with a pair of artists who have extensive chart histories of their own — John Mayer on “Better Days” and Bruce Springsteen on “Sandpaper” — and already has something of a new breakout hit of its own in shuffling ballad “28,” which is still in the top 10 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and Apple Music’s realtime listing. (If the Springsteen track debuts on the Hot 100, it will mark his first entry since 2009, and if it goes any higher than No. 95, it will be his highest-charting hit in nearly 20 years (since 2005’s “Devils & Dust” reached No. 72).)
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The set should stream in highly robust numbers – but it does have a couple factors working against its chances of a No. 1 debut. For one, Bryan pushed to have the album released on July 4 – last Thursday – rather than the usual Friday drop, meaning that its first day of stats count towards this week’s chart, not next week’s. (Its opening-day numbers were still big enough on their own for the album to debut at No. 17 on the Billboard 200 dated July 13.) More pressingly, the LP is currently only available for sale in digital form, with its release on CD and vinyl not due until Oct. 11. And while “28” is off to a good start, it’s not a real threat to debut atop the Hot 100 like “I Remember Everything” did.
The album is still expected to follow Zach Bryan – which launched with 200,000 units in its debut week last year – with another six-digit first week, which should make it a real contender for the top spot next week. But since the album’s first-full-week performance was hobbled a little by its off-cycle debut, whether Bar Scene can get to No. 1 may depend on whether it can stay a consistent performer on streaming through the end of the week.
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): The Tortured Poets Department has ruled atop the Billboard 200 since debuting there back in early April, fending off debuts from Dua Lipa (Radical Optimism), Gunna (One of Wun), Billie Eilish (Hit Me Hard and Soft), ATEEZ (Golden Hour: Part 1) and Gracie Abrams (The Secret of Us), all of which debuted at No. 2 behind Taylor Swift’s blockbuster. Even in its 11th week of release, Poets remains a very strong performer – posting 114,000 equivalent album units this week, as the 31-track set (in its full Anthology edition) continues to put up robust streaming numbers, and also sell well in its various editions.
More of those new variants may be on their way to fans this week. On July 7, Swift restocked seven previously available CD editions of Poets on her webstore, each featuring a different exclusive bonus track — which were only available to purchase that day, and (according to the webstore) were due to ship on or before July 10, and could impact the tracking week. On Monday, Swift also released two new versions of the album’s lead single, the Post Malone-featuring “Fortnight,” to DSPs and digital retailers: a new Cults remix of the song, and an acoustic version of it. (The latter had previously been available via a limited edition CD version of Poets, and is currently in the top 10 on the iTunes chart.)
Taylor Swift has fought hard to maintain the chart’s pole position for over two months now, and will certainly make Zach Bryan earn the spot if he is to take it from her with his new album. What’s more, Swift has particular reason to be motivated to go for the 12th frame at No. 1 for her new set: With one more week on top, Poets would break a three-way tie with 2008’s Fearless and 2014’s 1989 to become the longest-ruling album on the Billboard 200 of the pop superstar’s entire storied career.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated July 13), one of the biggest breakout artists of the year hopes to take a post-4th of July victory lap with his first crossover hit.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): For the last two and a half months, as established superstars like Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar and rising phenoms like Sabrina Carpenter and Tommy Richman have all made their big bows on the Hot 100, one artist has consistently been lurking just offscreen, slowly gathering steam: Shaboozey. The country singer-songwriter, who made his Hot 100 debut earlier this year via a pair of feature appearances on Beyoncé’s acclaimed Cowboy Carter album, bowed on the chart with “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” in April, and shot to No. 3 in May, before receding a bit as the crowded chart fielded new runaway smashes seemingly every week.
But now, the breakout hit is closer than it’s ever been: “Bar Song” reaches a new peak of No. 2 on the chart this week, with the song continuing to stream and sell very well – particularly the latter, as it reigns for a seventh week on Digital Song Sales. And it still has room to grow on radio, where it’s been climbing the Radio Songs tally (8-7 this week) and is still gaining momentum across formats – including on country radio, climbing 17-12 on Country Airplay. (If it goes top 10 on that chart next week, it will become the first song to ever reach that tier on each of Billboard’s Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay charts.)
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Helping with the song’s momentum: a big showcase at Sunday’s (June 30) BET Awards, with Shaboozey becoming the very rare country act to get a full-song performance on Culture’s Biggest Night – and seizing the opportunity with a party-starting rendition of the song, including late guest appearance from St. Louis rapper J-Kwon, whose 2004 classic “Tipsy” it heavily interpolates. With the race already looking to be a close one, any amount of streaming or sales bump from that performance might be enough to put “A Bar Song” over the top on next week’s Hot 100.
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Post Malone may finally be on the way to moving on from the wildly successful first taste of his long-promised country pivot, with the release two Fridays ago (June 21) of his second single from his upcoming F-1 Trillion set, the Blake Shelton collab “Pour Me a Drink.” That song is also off to a strong start on the Hot 100, debuting at No. 12, tying Shelton’s best-ever peak on the listing (with 2013’s “Boys ‘Round Here,” featuring Pistol Annies & Friends).
However, predecessor “I Had Some Help” is far from done, as it returns to the Hot 100’s apex this week for a sixth total frame on top – while also topping Radio Songs for the first time. Its streams are finally starting to slip a little, however, as the song descends 2-4 on Streaming Songs this week. So it will likely either need to continue building on radio — it hits the top five this week on both Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay — or get a bit of a 4th of July barbecue bump to hold off Shaboozey and secure a seventh week atop the chart next week.
IN THE MIX
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” & “Please Please Please” (Island): She may be done at No. 1 for the time being, after “Please Please Please” netted her first Hot 100-topper a week ago, but both that song and “Espresso” remain stable smashes for Sabrina Carpenter, ranking at Nos. 4 and 5 respectively on the Hot 100 this week, with major streaming profiles. “Espresso” has also long established its bonafides on radio, moving into the Radio Songs top five this week, but it may have to make room for “Please” soon as well, as that song is the Hot 100’s top Airplay Gainer this week, debuting at No. 24 on Pop Airplay (with help from radio edits replacing the end of its signature “don’t embarrass me, motherf—ker” lyric with “mother trucker” and/or “little sucker”).
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” (KRA/Amusement/Island): Chappell Roan has been diversifying her Hot 100 takeover over the past month: She now has five different songs currently climbing the chart, with “Casual” (No. 82) joining “Pink Pony Club” (No. 66), “Red Wine Supernova” (No. 46), “Hot To Go!” (No. 38) and “Good Luck Babe” (No. 11) at the party this week. She still hasn’t reached the chart’s top 10 – but that may change next week, as “Babe” continues to grow both on the DSPs (hitting the Streaming Songs top 10 this week) and the airwaves (moving 19-17 on Pop Airplay).
GloRilla, “TGIF” (CMG/Interscope/ICLG): Rihanna isn’t recording and releasing songs at the frequency she used to, but that doesn’t mean she’s lost her touch as a hitmaker – now it’s just other artists’ songs she’s blowing up. GloRilla’s latest single “TGIF” exploded on social media and streaming over the past weekend after RiRi posted a video of her rapping along with the song to a stern-looking A$AP Rocky – and now it looks well on its way to being her third major hit of the year, following “Yeah Glo!” and the Megan Thee Stallion collab “Wanna Be.” It’s not likely to hit the top 10 next week, but if its momentum continues it could be in the hunt soon enough – especially if Rihanna were ever to grace a remix of the song.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 22), a recently minted new pop superstar has two songs that could take over the top spot next week.
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Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please” & “Espresso” (Island/Republic): Sabrina Carpenter’s set at New York’s Gov Ball music festival on Saturday (June 8) was something of a coronation, as the ascendant pop star played to a headliner’s-worthy crowd in the late afternoon, creating near-hysteria in Flushing Meadows Corona Park with her now-hits-filled set. It helped that she also had a brand-new hit to play live for the first time: the slapping, pleading and unexpectedly twangy “Please Please Please.”
“Please” was released just the Friday before, along with a buzzy video starring her now-confirmed real-life paramour, Oscar-nominated Saltburn star Barry Keoghan. By the time of her Saturday performance, the song had already gone viral, proving particularly catchy on TikTok for its radio-unfriendly chorus hook “Heartbreak is one thing, my ego’s another/ I beg you don’t embarrass me, motherf—ker.” (Signs held up in the audience read “Please please please play ‘Please Please Please.’”)
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While the song was immediately successful on streaming, Carpenter’s Gov Ball set (which also caught a good deal of online interest) just poured gasoline on the fire — helping the song reach the top of the daily and real-time charts for both Spotify and Apple Music, as its video continued to reign on YouTube’s Trending for Music page. It has only continued to grow on DSPs in the days since, netting over 5 million daily U.S. plays on Spotify as of Tuesday. The song has been less immediately dominant in sales and radio airplay, but has also reached the top 10 on iTunes’ real-time chart, and is starting to get some early curiosity spins on the airwaves, led by SiriusXM’s Hits 1 channel.
But of course, the bigger the song gets, the more traffic it runs into from her current piping-hot smash: “Espresso,” which slips 5-6 on this week’s Hot 100 (dated June 15), but which is also up across the board following the release of “Please” and Carpenter’s Saturday festival set. On Spotify, the song is No. 2 behind “Please” on its Daily Top Songs USA chart, while rating at No. 5 on Apple Music’s real-time chart. It leads “Please” on iTunes, and obviously it’s way ahead of the new song on the airwaves, having moved into the top 10 on Billboard’s Radio Songs chart for the first time this week. (Incredibly, both songs still trail her Emails I Can’t Send deluxe edition cut “Feather” there, which gently falls to No. 8 on that chart after hitting a No. 5 peak in May.)
Both “Please” and “Espresso” are likely to populate the Hot 100’s top five this week, and may even have a shot at the No. 1 spot. Their chances should depend on how both songs continue to maintain their post-weekend momentum in the final days of the tracking week – or grow even further – with “Please” likely having the inside track between the two songs based on how stratospheric its streaming numbers have already gotten.
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Mercury/Republic/Big Loud): Speaking of Gov Ball: The Friday headliner was none other than Post Malone, who of course got a massive reception across the board – particularly for his encore performance of his and Wallen’s current four-week Hot 100-topper, “I Had Some Help.” (No Wallen guest appearance, sadly for those in attendance.) The performance did not have the galvanizing effect on streaming that Carpenter’s had – maybe he could’ve used a brand new song, too, as “Help” was the only new song from Post’s long-hyped country pivot to appear in his Friday setlist – but the song still holds at No. 3 on the Spotify and Apple Music charts, and No. 5 on iTunes.
The key for “Help” maintaining separation from the pair of Carpenter hits is, of course, its still-growing radio dominance. The song holds at No. 5 on Radio Songs this week — up 13% in reach, according to Luminate – and jumps 4-3 on Country Airplay and 14-10 on Pop Airplay. If, as trending, its presence continues to expand on those formats this week, while Carpenter’s hits perhaps have a sort of vote-splitting effect on the airwaves, it would certainly help “Help” in its campaign for an uninterrupted fifth week of Hot 100 ruling.
IN THE MIX
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): A little further outside of the pop zeitgeist than Posty or Sabrina, Shaboozey’s solo breakthrough smash just continues to get bigger and bigger. While holding in the top five on Billboard’s Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales charts, it also leaps 22-16 on Radio Songs, with an unusually prolific presence across formats. Billboard’s charts team reports this week that “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is the first song to be rising in the top 25 simultaneously on the Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay charts — which have coexisted since 1996. The song should continue to contend in the Hot 100’s top five as it keeps rising at radio, meaning it might never be more than a well-timed remix away from making a serious bid for No. 1.
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): “Birds” (No. 11, a new high) passed “Lunch” (No. 13, after reaching No. 5) last week for the highest-ranking of Hot 100 hits from Billie Eilish’s new Hit Me Hard and Soft album – and next week, “Birds” could hit the top 10 for the first time, as it continues building on streaming (No. 3 on Spotify, No. 8 on Apple Music). It is also beginning to soar on radio, with 1.3 million all-format impressions June 7-10, on the back of airplay from early leaders including SiriusXM’s TikTok Radio and Hits 1, KMVQ San Francisco, WWWQ Atlanta and WIHT Washington, D.C.
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Of course, discussion of the overall Gov Ball bump would be incomplete without mention of Chappell Roan, whose headline-grabbing Sunday afternoon set – featuring the singer-songwriter in full Statue of Liberty getup, including green skin paint – has also given her overall catalog a major boost. Leading the way there is newest single “Good Luck, Babe!,” which rises 31-26 on the Hot 100 this week, and should be due for another big jump next frame. Whether or not the song can crack the chart’s top tier may depend on if it can secure further radio support, as “Babe” has yet to make the 50-spot Radio Songs listing, but is getting close – including a No. 31-29 move on Pop Airplay this week.
