The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated July 13), one of the biggest breakout artists of the year hopes to take a post-4th of July victory lap with his first crossover hit.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): For the last two and a half months, as established superstars like Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar and rising phenoms like Sabrina Carpenter and Tommy Richman have all made their big bows on the Hot 100, one artist has consistently been lurking just offscreen, slowly gathering steam: Shaboozey. The country singer-songwriter, who made his Hot 100 debut earlier this year via a pair of feature appearances on Beyoncé’s acclaimed Cowboy Carter album, bowed on the chart with “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” in April, and shot to No. 3 in May, before receding a bit as the crowded chart fielded new runaway smashes seemingly every week.
But now, the breakout hit is closer than it’s ever been: “Bar Song” reaches a new peak of No. 2 on the chart this week, with the song continuing to stream and sell very well – particularly the latter, as it reigns for a seventh week on Digital Song Sales. And it still has room to grow on radio, where it’s been climbing the Radio Songs tally (8-7 this week) and is still gaining momentum across formats – including on country radio, climbing 17-12 on Country Airplay. (If it goes top 10 on that chart next week, it will become the first song to ever reach that tier on each of Billboard’s Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay charts.)
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Helping with the song’s momentum: a big showcase at Sunday’s (June 30) BET Awards, with Shaboozey becoming the very rare country act to get a full-song performance on Culture’s Biggest Night – and seizing the opportunity with a party-starting rendition of the song, including late guest appearance from St. Louis rapper J-Kwon, whose 2004 classic “Tipsy” it heavily interpolates. With the race already looking to be a close one, any amount of streaming or sales bump from that performance might be enough to put “A Bar Song” over the top on next week’s Hot 100.
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Post Malone may finally be on the way to moving on from the wildly successful first taste of his long-promised country pivot, with the release two Fridays ago (June 21) of his second single from his upcoming F-1 Trillion set, the Blake Shelton collab “Pour Me a Drink.” That song is also off to a strong start on the Hot 100, debuting at No. 12, tying Shelton’s best-ever peak on the listing (with 2013’s “Boys ‘Round Here,” featuring Pistol Annies & Friends).
However, predecessor “I Had Some Help” is far from done, as it returns to the Hot 100’s apex this week for a sixth total frame on top – while also topping Radio Songs for the first time. Its streams are finally starting to slip a little, however, as the song descends 2-4 on Streaming Songs this week. So it will likely either need to continue building on radio — it hits the top five this week on both Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay — or get a bit of a 4th of July barbecue bump to hold off Shaboozey and secure a seventh week atop the chart next week.
IN THE MIX
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” & “Please Please Please” (Island): She may be done at No. 1 for the time being, after “Please Please Please” netted her first Hot 100-topper a week ago, but both that song and “Espresso” remain stable smashes for Sabrina Carpenter, ranking at Nos. 4 and 5 respectively on the Hot 100 this week, with major streaming profiles. “Espresso” has also long established its bonafides on radio, moving into the Radio Songs top five this week, but it may have to make room for “Please” soon as well, as that song is the Hot 100’s top Airplay Gainer this week, debuting at No. 24 on Pop Airplay (with help from radio edits replacing the end of its signature “don’t embarrass me, motherf—ker” lyric with “mother trucker” and/or “little sucker”).
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” (KRA/Amusement/Island): Chappell Roan has been diversifying her Hot 100 takeover over the past month: She now has five different songs currently climbing the chart, with “Casual” (No. 82) joining “Pink Pony Club” (No. 66), “Red Wine Supernova” (No. 46), “Hot To Go!” (No. 38) and “Good Luck Babe” (No. 11) at the party this week. She still hasn’t reached the chart’s top 10 – but that may change next week, as “Babe” continues to grow both on the DSPs (hitting the Streaming Songs top 10 this week) and the airwaves (moving 19-17 on Pop Airplay).
GloRilla, “TGIF” (CMG/Interscope/ICLG): Rihanna isn’t recording and releasing songs at the frequency she used to, but that doesn’t mean she’s lost her touch as a hitmaker – now it’s just other artists’ songs she’s blowing up. GloRilla’s latest single “TGIF” exploded on social media and streaming over the past weekend after RiRi posted a video of her rapping along with the song to a stern-looking A$AP Rocky – and now it looks well on its way to being her third major hit of the year, following “Yeah Glo!” and the Megan Thee Stallion collab “Wanna Be.” It’s not likely to hit the top 10 next week, but if its momentum continues it could be in the hunt soon enough – especially if Rihanna were ever to grace a remix of the song.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 22), a recently minted new pop superstar has two songs that could take over the top spot next week.
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Sabrina Carpenter, “Please Please Please” & “Espresso” (Island/Republic): Sabrina Carpenter’s set at New York’s Gov Ball music festival on Saturday (June 8) was something of a coronation, as the ascendant pop star played to a headliner’s-worthy crowd in the late afternoon, creating near-hysteria in Flushing Meadows Corona Park with her now-hits-filled set. It helped that she also had a brand-new hit to play live for the first time: the slapping, pleading and unexpectedly twangy “Please Please Please.”
“Please” was released just the Friday before, along with a buzzy video starring her now-confirmed real-life paramour, Oscar-nominated Saltburn star Barry Keoghan. By the time of her Saturday performance, the song had already gone viral, proving particularly catchy on TikTok for its radio-unfriendly chorus hook “Heartbreak is one thing, my ego’s another/ I beg you don’t embarrass me, motherf—ker.” (Signs held up in the audience read “Please please please play ‘Please Please Please.’”)
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While the song was immediately successful on streaming, Carpenter’s Gov Ball set (which also caught a good deal of online interest) just poured gasoline on the fire — helping the song reach the top of the daily and real-time charts for both Spotify and Apple Music, as its video continued to reign on YouTube’s Trending for Music page. It has only continued to grow on DSPs in the days since, netting over 5 million daily U.S. plays on Spotify as of Tuesday. The song has been less immediately dominant in sales and radio airplay, but has also reached the top 10 on iTunes’ real-time chart, and is starting to get some early curiosity spins on the airwaves, led by SiriusXM’s Hits 1 channel.
But of course, the bigger the song gets, the more traffic it runs into from her current piping-hot smash: “Espresso,” which slips 5-6 on this week’s Hot 100 (dated June 15), but which is also up across the board following the release of “Please” and Carpenter’s Saturday festival set. On Spotify, the song is No. 2 behind “Please” on its Daily Top Songs USA chart, while rating at No. 5 on Apple Music’s real-time chart. It leads “Please” on iTunes, and obviously it’s way ahead of the new song on the airwaves, having moved into the top 10 on Billboard’s Radio Songs chart for the first time this week. (Incredibly, both songs still trail her Emails I Can’t Send deluxe edition cut “Feather” there, which gently falls to No. 8 on that chart after hitting a No. 5 peak in May.)
Both “Please” and “Espresso” are likely to populate the Hot 100’s top five this week, and may even have a shot at the No. 1 spot. Their chances should depend on how both songs continue to maintain their post-weekend momentum in the final days of the tracking week – or grow even further – with “Please” likely having the inside track between the two songs based on how stratospheric its streaming numbers have already gotten.
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Mercury/Republic/Big Loud): Speaking of Gov Ball: The Friday headliner was none other than Post Malone, who of course got a massive reception across the board – particularly for his encore performance of his and Wallen’s current four-week Hot 100-topper, “I Had Some Help.” (No Wallen guest appearance, sadly for those in attendance.) The performance did not have the galvanizing effect on streaming that Carpenter’s had – maybe he could’ve used a brand new song, too, as “Help” was the only new song from Post’s long-hyped country pivot to appear in his Friday setlist – but the song still holds at No. 3 on the Spotify and Apple Music charts, and No. 5 on iTunes.
The key for “Help” maintaining separation from the pair of Carpenter hits is, of course, its still-growing radio dominance. The song holds at No. 5 on Radio Songs this week — up 13% in reach, according to Luminate – and jumps 4-3 on Country Airplay and 14-10 on Pop Airplay. If, as trending, its presence continues to expand on those formats this week, while Carpenter’s hits perhaps have a sort of vote-splitting effect on the airwaves, it would certainly help “Help” in its campaign for an uninterrupted fifth week of Hot 100 ruling.
IN THE MIX
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): A little further outside of the pop zeitgeist than Posty or Sabrina, Shaboozey’s solo breakthrough smash just continues to get bigger and bigger. While holding in the top five on Billboard’s Streaming Songs and Digital Song Sales charts, it also leaps 22-16 on Radio Songs, with an unusually prolific presence across formats. Billboard’s charts team reports this week that “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” is the first song to be rising in the top 25 simultaneously on the Country Airplay, Pop Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay charts — which have coexisted since 1996. The song should continue to contend in the Hot 100’s top five as it keeps rising at radio, meaning it might never be more than a well-timed remix away from making a serious bid for No. 1.
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): “Birds” (No. 11, a new high) passed “Lunch” (No. 13, after reaching No. 5) last week for the highest-ranking of Hot 100 hits from Billie Eilish’s new Hit Me Hard and Soft album – and next week, “Birds” could hit the top 10 for the first time, as it continues building on streaming (No. 3 on Spotify, No. 8 on Apple Music). It is also beginning to soar on radio, with 1.3 million all-format impressions June 7-10, on the back of airplay from early leaders including SiriusXM’s TikTok Radio and Hits 1, KMVQ San Francisco, WWWQ Atlanta and WIHT Washington, D.C.
Chappell Roan, “Good Luck, Babe!” (KRA/Amusement/Island/Republic): Of course, discussion of the overall Gov Ball bump would be incomplete without mention of Chappell Roan, whose headline-grabbing Sunday afternoon set – featuring the singer-songwriter in full Statue of Liberty getup, including green skin paint – has also given her overall catalog a major boost. Leading the way there is newest single “Good Luck, Babe!,” which rises 31-26 on the Hot 100 this week, and should be due for another big jump next frame. Whether or not the song can crack the chart’s top tier may depend on if it can secure further radio support, as “Babe” has yet to make the 50-spot Radio Songs listing, but is getting close – including a No. 31-29 move on Pop Airplay this week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 15), a return to form a Rock and Roll Hall of Fame rapper looks to interfere with some of the more explicitly 2024 hits vying for the top of the Hot 100.
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Eminem, “Houdini” (Shady/Aftermath/Interscope): In April, Eminem began teasing the upcoming release of his 12th studio album, The Death of Slim Shady. Whether the album title foreshadows Em’s official retirement from music – a full 25 years after first announcing his name to the world in 1999 – or just a new phase in the rapper’s Rock and Roll Hall of Fame career, the album is sure to be one of the summer’s most anticipated. And now, it has an already-minted hit as the official lead single: “Houdini,” released on Friday (May 31).
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The new single, co-produced by Eminem with longtime Detroit-based collaborator Luis Resto, calls back to the MC’s 2002 megahit “Without Me” — with its “guess who’s back, back again” intro and its superhero-themed music video – and heavily interpolates both the instrumental backing and chorus hook from Steve Miller Band’s 1982 Hot 100-topping smash “Abracadabra.” The song also has gained a great deal of attention for its inflammatory lyrics, which see Em back to several of his old tricks – trying to bait critics with bars that at least verge on the homophobic, transphobic and misogynistic, as well as with one couplet making a bad pun about Megan Thee Stallion’s recent shooting at the hands of Tory Lanez.
Despite the controversy – or more likely, partly because of it — “Houdini” has gotten off to an excellent start in consumption. It debuted in the top five on both the daily charts on Spotify and Apple Music and is still hanging around there at mid-week with barely any drop-off, while remaining YouTube’s top-trending music video. Perhaps even more importantly for its chart fortunes, it has held all week at No. 1 on the iTunes sales chart, with Eminem having the advantage of having ruled in the era when digital song sales were still a more central part of the musical economy. He will need some pretty mighty numbers there to have a chance of scoring a No. 1 debut on the Hot 100 — which would make his first chart-topper since “The Monster” in 2013, and sixth overall — but when it comes one of the best-selling artists of the past quarter-century, you never want to proclaim their demise prematurely.
Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Mercury/Republic/Big Loud): Three weeks after debuting at No. 1 on the Hot 100, the star team-up between Posty and Wallen shows no real signs of slowing down: It’s still holding in the top three on both the regular Spotify and Apple Music charts, and is just a couple spots below “Houdini” on the iTunes chart as well. But radio is where the song is really starting to create some distance from the competition: It has already moved into the top five on Billboard’s Radio Songs chart over four weeks – tying for the fastest rise to the region since Miley Cyrus’ four-quadrant smash “Flowers” last year — while surging on the country, mainstream pop and adult pop radio formats.
Radio is likely to make the difference for “Help” in the race for No. 1 next week, unless Eminem’s latest — which has earned 2 million in all-format radio airplay audience as of June 3, according to Luminate — grows there at a spectacular rate, while selling digital downloads like it’s 2010 all over again. (If “Help” holds at No. 1 for a fourth frame, it’ll be the first song to reign for that many weeks consecutively since Wallen’s own “Last Night” a year ago.)
IN THE MIX
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Shaboozey’s solo breakthrough smash has been hanging around the Hot 100’s top five for about a month now – and it might be due for something of a boost next week, with the release of the country singer-songwriter’s full Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going album. The song has also been finding its footing on radio, catapulting from 37 to 22 on Radio Songs in just its second week on the chart (dated June 8), and even finally catching on in Nashville, jumping 31-24 on Country Airplay as well.
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): “Lunch” was tabbed as the focus track from Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft – along with a music video and an early radio push – and it also earned the album’s biggest Hot 100 debut, bowing at No. 5 and holding in the top 10 for a second week this week. But this love song may end up being the album’s biggest breakout hit, as the TikTok-approved “Birds” has passed “Lunch” on both the updating Spotify and Apple Music charts, and even on iTunes as well. “Lunch” will likely continue to have the radio advantage, but “Birds” (up 13-12 this week) may fly past it and into the top 10 on the Hot 100 in the next week or two.
Central Cee & Lil Baby, “BAND4BAND” (CC4L/Columbia): This Atlantic-crossing collab from London’s Central Cee and Atlanta’s Lil Baby debuted just outside the top 20 on the Hot 100 this week, and looks to only be gaining in its second week on streaming. Cee, one of the U.K.’s biggest breakout artists of the decade, has long been bubbling just under the mainstream in the U.S. — and now that he’s got a full-on crossover hit (with a proven American hitmaker as a co-star), there may be no ceiling for his stateside breakthrough.
Welcome to Billboard Pro’s Trending Up newsletter, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip.
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This week: Kehlani sees bumps both for her own song and a song named after her, while Central Cee and Lil Baby have a trans-continental hit on her hands and a devastating ’80s synth-pop classic goes viral for surprisingly blithe reasons.
Kehlani’s Name Spurs Streaming Wins for Herself & Belfast Singer-Songwriter Jordan Adetunji
In just a few weeks (June 27), Kehlani will unleash Crash, her third studio album. “After Hours,” the set’s lead single, is already pulling ample streaming traction, but so is a breakout hit named after her from Belfast singer-songwriter Jordan Adetunji.
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Released on May 19, Adetunji’s “Kehlani” collected over 115,000 official on-demand U.S. streams in its first three days of release (May 19-21), according to Luminate. Four days before the track hit DSPs, Adetunji posted a snippet of the song to his official TikTok account, writing, “Bro wrote a whole song about Kehlani, but why it kinda go hard,” alongside a bevy of popular hashtags, including “#cashcobain,” “#melodicdrill,” “#slizzymusic” and, of course, “#kehlani.” On May 18, Kehlani herself left a singular flame emoji under his post.
Over the same period the following week (May 26-28), “Kehlani” jumped 434% in streaming activity to 615,000 streams. In addition to the song naturally gaining traction on socials — “Kehlani” plays in the three pinned TikToks on Adetunji’s page, all of which have garnered at least 870,000 views each – a more explicit co-sign from Kehlani helped get the ball rolling.
On May 23, Kehlani posted a pair of TikToks featuring her vibing and lip-syncing to the track. The more recent video of the two has since earned over five million views and over one million likes on the platform, directing plenty of new listeners to Adetunji’s track. The official “Kehlani” TikTok sound currently boasts over 12,5000 posts.
Of course, Kehlani’s magic doesn’t stop there. With the release of a “Cater 2 U Mix” for “After Hours” and increased visibility due to her passionate social media pleas in support of the Free Palestine movement, the Crash lead single has enjoyed a significant streaming bump. During the period of May 17-21, “After Hours” pulled in 2.1 million official on-demand U.S. streams. By the period of May 24-28, that number jumped 55% to 3.3 million streams. – KYLE DENIS
Central Cee & Lil Baby Rack Up a New Hit With ‘BAND4BAND’
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After dominating the UK. alongside Dave with “Sprinter” last summer and earning his first Billboard Hot 100 with his Drake-assisted “On the Radar Freestyle” (No. 80), Central Cee is gearing up for another hit on both sides of the pond – and this time Lil Baby is along for the ride.
This U.K.-Atlanta drill-based link-up earned 1.93 million official on-demand U.S. streams on its first day of release (May 24). Streams for “BAND4BAND” remained stable throughout the week, eventually hitting 2.04 million streams on May 27. By the following day (May 28), that number rose 29% to 2.64 million streams, marking the strongest streaming day out of the track’s first five days of release. With a total of 10.2 million streams in its first five days of the week, “BAND4BAND” is already off to a very promising start.
The new track has also already exploded on TikTok, with the official “BAND4BAND” sound garnering over 97,000 posts in just one week. Most users are using Cench and Baby’s back-and-forth hook to show-off their hilarious “U.S.” and “U.K.” sides. Over on YouTube, the official “BAND4BAND” music video has pulled in over 14 million views in under a week.
Should “BAND4BAND” hold steady, Cench and Baby could be looking at the next global rap smash. – KD
Heartbreaking Bronski Beat Classic Revived for Light-Hearted TikTok Trend
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Bronski Beat’s 1985 hit “Small Town Boy” was never a huge chart smash in the U.S. — it peaked at just No. 48 on the Billboard Hot 100, though it reached No. 3 on the U.K.’s Official Charts. But the song remains well-remembered for its passionately delivered lyrics and evocative music video, a tearjerking tale of a young gay man’s rejection and alienation from mainstream society. However, the song is making the rounds again in 2024 for reasons that have absolutely nothing to do with its content, and everything to do with its propulsive synth hook and danceable post-disco beat.
TikTok has really gotten swept up in the #80sDanceChallenge, in which users take videos of their parents dancing to a lightly sped-up version of the pulsing intro to “Small Town Boy” — supposedly with the moves they would’ve used if boogieing to the song back in the ’80s. No less an early-MTV-era authority than Cyndi Lauper has gotten in on the fun, posting a CapCut edit of some old performance footage of her full-bodied dancing set to “Boy,” with the caption, “Oh #80s #dancechallenge you say?”
The clips, several of which have already racked up millions of likes, have helped the song find new life on streaming: “Boy” racked up over 1.5 million official on-demand U.S. streams for the tracking week ending May 23, according to Luminate — a 114% gain from the 705,000 streams the song notched four weeks earlier, before the trend really took off. Bronski Beat singer Jimmy Somerville also shared a TikTok celebrating the song’s recent 40th anniversary, singing along to the song’s now-viral intro and sharing his joy at how the song has been revived.
“Everything is just kind of going so crazy in the world,” he said. “But here, on TikTok, there’s all these people just finding a moment to just have a bit of fun … It’s just been brilliant.” – ANDREW UNTERBERGER
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated June 8), a cult favorite act looks to get in the way of Billie Eilish’s latest and Taylor Swift’s unsinkable blockbuster.
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Twenty One Pilots, Clancy (Fueled by Ramen): For a couple years in the mid-‘10s, the duo of Tyler Joseph and Josh Dun made the jump from regional Columbus, Ohio sensations to national hitmakers to legitimate A-listers, scoring a trio of Hot 100 top five hits and accepting Grammys in their underwear. Those days of massive crossover success are likely behind Twenty One Pilots at this point – their lone Billboard Hot 100 top 40 hit of the 2020s came at the beginning of the decade, with the COVID-themed “Level of Concern” – but the massive following the group accrued over those years has largely hung around, and should make them a contender for the top of the Billboard 200 this week for their latest LP Clancy.
The new album (released two Fridays ago, May 17) follows 2021’s Scaled and Icy, which debuted at No. 3 with 75,000 equivalent album units. Clancy has the advantage of arriving as the much-hyped final installment in their conceptual series dating back to 2015’s breakthrough set Blurryface, loosely telling the story of the titular Clancy in the dystopian city of Dema. The set should have modest streaming success – helped by the visual album aspect of the release, with videos filmed for each of its 14 tracks – but will likely do most of its damage in physical sales. To that end, the duo has released Clancy in 11 different-colored vinyl variants, as well as in signed and unsigned zine/CD journal packages and digipak CDs, and a couple deluxe CD box sets with branded merch included inside. On May 29, the group also released a limited-time Clancy – Digital Remains deluxe edition – only available until midnight on May 30 — which features four recently recorded live bonus tracks, as well as a lengthy exclusive digital booklet offering behind-the-scenes photos.
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Even with impressive sales and solid streams, Clancy will still be fighting an uphill battle trying to get to No. 1 next week, with the two sets that sparred for No. 1 last week – Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department and Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft – still posting massive numbers on streaming. With both of those artists essentially emptying the bench last week of their remaining deluxe editions and CD variants on sale for their respective new albums, however, Clancy could have a real advantage in sales. But the album will have to post a much better first-week units figure than Scaled and Icy’s 75,000 – likely at least in the low six figures – to really have a chance of passing either.
IN THE MIX
RM, Right Place, Wrong Person (Big Hit/Geffen): The BTS alum’s follow-up to 2022’s No. 3-peaking Billboard 200 hit debut album Indigo is even looser, more expansive and more sonically diverse than that impressive first effort. That means that RM still hasn’t scored a solo hit single or global streaming mega-smash like his bandmates Jimin and Jung Kook – who both topped the Hot 100 in 2023 – but it means he’s cultivating an albums audience, which will have the option of purchasing Right Place, Wrong Person in 13 different CD variants, all containing branded paper merch and other collectibles.
Wallows, Model (Atlantic): Like Twenty One Pilots, Wallows are no longer at the peak of their crossover moment – which was much more modest than that duo’s to begin with – but retain an extremely loyal following, one which should help their third album Model become one of the week’s top debuts. The set is available in a dozen different-colored vinyl variants – with three signed editions available on their website, one signed by each member – as well as a couple cassette and CD editions, while the group spent this week doing in-store promotional appearances at indie retailers.
Sexyy Red, In Sexyy We Trust (Rebel/gamma.): Sexyy Red was one of 2023’s biggest breakout stars, with her acclaimed Hood Hottest Princess mixtape and breakout hits “Pound Town” and “SkeeYee,” which she’s already one-upped this year with the No. 20-peaking Hot 100 hit “Get It Sexyy.” That song can be found on her new mixtape In Sexyy We Trust, as well as a new teamup with her “Rich Baby Daddy” collaborator Drake, “U My Everything,” which samples the “BBL Drizzy” beat that producer Metro Boomin had been using to mock Drake as part of the latter’s ongoing feud with Kendrick Lamar. That song has gotten off to a slower-than-expected start on some DSPs – perhaps as exhaustion with the larger feud finally starts to set in – but the set should still fare well on streaming, with the album currently only available digitally.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated June 1), it’s a superstar showdown between Billie Eilish’s new album and Taylor Swift’s reigning blockbuster.
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Billie Eilish, Hit Me Hard and Soft (Darkroom/Interscope): Perhaps the most anticipated release of this month, Billie Eilish’s third LP Hit Me Hard and Soft debuted on Friday (May 17). The follow-up to her acclaimed 2021 sophomore set Happier Than Ever marked a first for Eilish, as it featured no advance singles, as the artist encouraged her fans to experience the album – largely focused on her self-discovery in terms of her identity and sexuality as she enters her 20s – all at once.
And it seems many have done just that. Hit Me – which has racked up perhaps the strongest reviews yet of her already highly celebrated young career – has performed very well on streaming through its first five days of release, with every one of its 10 tracks still ranking in the top 25 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, with each garnering over a million spins each. Of course, there being only 10 tracks on the album may mean the album still ends up with a relatively modest overall stream total compared to some recent blockbusters with more gargantuan tracklists, but its impressive endurance across the board throughout the week should still lead to fairly resounding first-week numbers.
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The set should also sell quite well, with Eilish a reliably strong performer there – Happier sold 154,000 copies in its first week, making for well over half of the set’s overall first-week performance (238,000 equivalent album units). To help with those numbers, Eilish has released nine vinyl editions of Hit Me (one of which, a webstore exclusive, was signed), all in different-colored variants. There are also four separate CD options (standard CD; a signed CD exclusive to her webstore; a “splatter” CD where Eilish splattered paint across the CD booklets en masse, and then those were collated into their packaging; and a Target-exclusive CD containing a poster), as well as a cassette version, and a digital deluxe album that also includes isolated vocal tracks for the 10 songs on the album.
Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): But of course, to get her third straight No. 1 album, Eilish will have to unseat the album that’s topped the chart for the last month: Taylor Swift’s historic-selling The Tortured Poets Department. This week, in its fourth week on top, Poets posted 260,000 units – mostly in streams, with the set remaining a consistently dominant performer on DSPs with the 31 tracks of its Anthology edition. (It was also assisted in the most recent frame from added interest following the resumption of her Eras Tour in Europe on May 9, with six Poets tracks now newly added to the setlist.)
Revived live attention won’t be the only thing likely to help Poets’ performance on next week’s chart, though. On May 16 – at the end of the last tracking week – Swift posted pre-orders on her site for a May 17 delivery of new digital editions of her latest album, with three different variants that all also offered one “First Draft Phone Memo” version each of one of the album’s tracks (“Who’s Afraid of Little Old Me?,” “Cassandra” and ”The Black Dog”). In addition to that, her sales week could also still be impacted by a variety of CD edition releases – featuring bonus tracks and/or other collectibles — posted to her website for pre-order in May prior to this tracking week, whose exact shipping dates are currently unknown.
The race could be a close one, as the excitement over Eilish’s brand-new release competes with the sheer overwhelming volume of Swift’s reigning behemoth. It’s one that’s sure to get a lot of attention in the pop community – particularly after Eilish’s comments in a Billboard March interview decrying artist wastefulness in releasing excessive vinyl variants were interpreted by many Swifties as a shot at Taylor. (Eilish later clarified that she was not singling out any artist with her comments, and acknowledged that she was guilty of the practice herself.)
IN THE MIX
Zayn, Room Under the Stairs (Mercury/Republic): Elsewhere in the pop world: Zayn goes country! The One Direction alum’s latest set is influenced by his love of Willie Nelson and Chris Stapleton, and is even co-helmed by the latter artist’s go-to producer Dave Cobb. The album is not expected to stream in particularly robust numbers – Zayn has not had a hit on the Billboard Hot 100 since 2020 – but it should sell respectably, thanks in part to the availability of six vinyl and four CD variants, as well as a deluxe digital album with five bonus “Z sides” tracks.
New Kids on the Block, Still Kids (BMG): Speaking of boy band vets: Nearly four decades into their career, NKOTB remain hangin’ tough, and just released their eighth album Still Kids, still with the classic Donnie, Joey, Jordan, Jonathan and Danny lineup. The new set – their first since 2013’s 10, which reached No. 6 on the Billboard 200 — features collabs with fellow late-’80s survivors Taylor Dayne and DJ Jazzy Jeff, and is available in four vinyl and two CD variants.
Cage the Elephant, Neon Pill (RCA): Kentucky hitmakers Cage the Elephant have been getting it done on rock radio and on tour for over 15 years now, and though their days of competing for the top of the Billboard 200 – their 2011 set Thank You Happy Birthday peaked at a career-best No. 2 – are likely over, they’re still going to make an impact each time out. Sixth album Neon Pill, featuring the Alternative Airplay-topping title track, is the band’s first album in five years, and is for sale in five vinyl variants and a standard CD edition.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 25), even with huge breakout hits cluttering the top of the charts, a big new collab may threaten to zoom past all of them.
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Post Malone feat. Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help” (Republic/Mercury/Big Loud): Undoubtedly the biggest debut of the week will come from these genre-spanning Republic labelmates. While 2010s superstar Post Malone’s commercial fortunes have largely been declining this decade – 2023’s Austin became the first LP of his career to not spawn a single top 10 Hot 100 hit – he’s been buoyed this year by collabs with arguably the three biggest names in contemporary popular music: Beyoncé (the Cowboy Carter standout “Levii’s Jeans”), Taylor Swift (the Tortured Poets Department lead single and two-week Hot 100 No. 1 “Fortnight”) and now Morgan Wallen.
Post’s latest star teamup looks like it might be on its way to following “Fortnight” to the Hot 100’s apex. “I Had Some Help” — apt title – reached the top of the daily and real-time charts on Spotify, Apple Music and iTunes shortly after its release on Friday (May 10), which is no small feat in this crowded a time for pop music. And while brand-new songs usually struggle to be competitive in the radio department, “I Had Some Help” has received such an instantly massive embrace on the airwaves that it’s actually already ahead of most of its primary competitors there: It’s drawn 17.3 million all-format airplay impressions in its first four days of wide release (May 10-13), according to Luminate, and made immediate-enough impact on country radio to debut at No. 18 on this week’s Country Airplay chart with just one day’s worth of plays (May 9).
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In another week – like, say, virtually any other week in May from 2020 to 2023 — “I Had Some Help” would be a no-brainer No. 1 debut. But of course, this has been an unusually loaded season for pop music, and “Help” will have to maintain its early momentum throughout the week to secure an entrance at pole position. If it does start atop the Hot 100, it will already mark the fifth different song to best the chart in the last six weeks, and the 13th different song total through 20 chart weeks this year – compared to both 2022 and 2023, where there were just seven total through the first 20 chart weeks.
Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): It’s a little ridiculous that “Not Like Us” is really going to have to work to defend its title on the Hot 100 next week, since it debuted atop the chart with just five days of tracking this week and shouldn’t be slowing down much in its first full week of consumption. Ten days after its release and the song is still pulling over five million daily streams on Spotify in this country alone – a gargantuan number for most songs even on release day – and it remains atop both the real-time Apple Music and YouTube Trending Music charts, an absolute streaming juggernaut across the board.
Where it’s lagging behind “I Had Some Help,” though, is in sales and on radio. The song has fallen out of the top three on iTunes, as “Help” has reigned on that chart since mere hours after its release, a clear front-runner to top Digital Song Sales next week. And while the rest of the culture has already adopted “Not Like Us” as the Song of the Late Spring, radio has been a little slower to get on board: The track drew 6 million in all-format audience from May 10-13, barely a third of the reach for Post’s and Wallen’s latest, although it’s a contender to make next week’s 50-spot Radio Songs listing.
There are, of course, cards for Kendrick Lamar still to play to get the edge on “Help” — a video for the song has been rumored, and a potential remix featuring another of Drake’s old foes would undoubtedly do big business upon release. But with the headline-dominating feud largely dying down the past week, it may feel like overkill for Lamar to continue pushing his enemy-vanquishing smash – and once the first-week sales die down for “Help,” “Not Like Us” may regain the advantage after next week anyway.
Tommy Richman, “Million Dollar Baby” (ISO Supermacy/PULSE Records): “Don’t forget about me!” croons Tommy Richman in smooth, rich falsetto. As much as next week’s Hot 100 race is a showdown between longtime chart heavyweights in Kendrick Lamar and both Post Malone and Morgan Wallen, you can’t count out the No. 2 song in the country in the decision, either. “Million Dollar Baby” has actually regained the top spot on Spotify’s daily chart – also with over 5 million plays daily — while remaining in the top three on Apple Music and iTunes, already rivaling Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” and Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” for the biggest breakout hit of 2023 from a previously chart-unproven artist.
However, radio has been a little slower to get the memo with Richman than with those other two artists’ breakthrough smashes. The song is growing on the airwaves, but only gradually: The song drew just 3.4 million radio impressions from May 10-13, already up from 1.9 million over the prior week (May 3-9), but still well short of its primary competitors. It seems near-impossible that top 40 can resist “Million Dollar Baby” forever, so its moment may still be coming down the line — it could debut on the Pop Airplay chart next week — but while it is at its (truly insane) streaming and sales peak, it may still be difficult for the song to find its way over the top.
IN THE MIX
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): Another one of the feel-good breakout stories of 2024 is country singer-songwriter and Cowboy Carter alum Shaboozey, whose “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has reached No. 3 on the Hot 100 and remains one of the best-streaming and best-selling songs in the country this week. Radio, again, is just joining the party: “A Bar Song” drew 5.5 million radio impressions from May 10-13, up from 5 million the prior week, and in a pop landscape this crowded (and only getting more crowded), it will likely need an extra boost to further break through.
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” (Island/Republic): Want a growing hit that radio is fully embracing? Look to Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” already a No. 4 hit so far on the Hot 100, which climbs 20-13 on the Pop Airplay chart this week, and is up 21% in all-format audience May 10-13 over the equivalent four-day period the prior week. Radio should only continue to grow for that song as the weather heats up, but its streaming and sales are slipping behind the competition – and with a new major release joining the mix seemingly every week this season, “Espresso” may need to make a big move while it’s still hot.
Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” (Republic): Remember her? Taylor Swift’s blockbuster The Tortured Poets Department only got a week of cultural ubiquity before the Drake-Kendrick Lamar feud stole back the spotlight, and while “Fortnight” has reigned on the Hot 100 for two weeks already and is still streaming and selling fairly well (and also moves into the top 10 on Pop Airplay this week), it does feel a little like its moment has already passed. Whether Swift’s next move is to continue to push “Fortnight” or try to boost one of the certified fan-favorite Poets tracks up to its level — “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” ranks second-highest on this week’s Hot 100, at No. 15 – remains to be seen, but you’d be a fool to assume you’ve seen the last of Swift in this discussion this season.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 18), the Kendrick Lamar-Drake beef that’s dominated pop culture for the past month sets its sights on also taking over the Billboard charts.
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Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Though it arrived as the fourth diss track in Kendrick Lamar’s anti-Drake campaign – fifth if you count “Like That” — “Not Like Us” appears on its way to being the rapper’s biggest single since at least that initial Future and Metro Boomin collab, which topped the Hot 100 in its first three weeks on the chart in April. Since debuting on Saturday night (May 4), the Mustard-produced banger has simply swept through pop culture, being played on NBA on TNT broadcasts and as MLB walk-up music and inspiring mash-ups and club chants and general West Coast fan hysteria.
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The public response has been overwhelming enough that even with its late Saturday release – meaning it will only have a little over five days of consumption in its debut tracking week – “Not Like Us” should still be a strong contender for a No. 1 Hot 100 debut next week. The song shot to the top of essentially every relevant daily or real time chart (including Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube Trending and iTunes) and is currently still gaining steam, with its eye-popping most recent Spotify U.S. total of over 6.8 million plays (for Tuesday, May 7) being its highest yet.
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Competition for the top spot will still be stiff in such a loaded period for new hits, including from other songs by Kendrick himself. But “Not Like Us” is outpacing the competition enough right now to likely be the frontrunner for next week’s chart – and regardless is certainly on pace to be one of the defining hits of this year, as well as one of the biggest songs of Lamar’s decade-plus hitmaking career.
Kendrick Lamar, “Euphoria” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Before the arrival of “Not Like Us,” it still seemed like Lamar would have the inside track on the Hot 100 with the first shot from his recent attack wave, “Euphoria.” That track, a vicious six-minute assault on Drake’s character that also became a pop culture phenomenon upon its release two Tuesdays ago (April 30), managed to debut at No. 11 on this week’s Hot 100 (dated May 11) from just two and a half days of tracking.
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Following its first full week of release, “Euphoria” should also be a major contender for the top of the Hot 100, as it has been holding strong near the top of most daily DSP charts in the days since. (Both “Euphoria” and “Not Like Us” are just getting going on radio, each drawing a little over a million airplay impressions in the first four days of the tracking week, May 3-6, according to Luminate.) With “Not Like Us” lapping it basically across the board as the popular favorite from this back and forth, however, “Euphoria” might have missed its best shot at nabbing the No. 1 spot, and will likely have to settle for the silver or bronze on the chart next week.
Kendrick Lamar, “Meet the Grahams” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Perhaps the nastiest of Lamar’s invectives against his rival, “Meet the Grahams” arrived on Friday night (May 3), a day before “Not Like Us.” The song doesn’t quite have the invigorating punchiness of “Euphoria” or the sheer club-readiness of “Us,” and so it hasn’t quite taken over the culture like those two certified hits. But its performance since arriving on all DSPs on Sunday (after a YouTube-only debut) has been notable enough – with the song currently ranking in the top 10 on both the Spotify and Apple Music updating charts, as well as on iTunes – that it should still be ticketed for a fairly high debut on next week’s Hot 100.
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There is of course a fourth Lamar song from song from the feud that was released the past weekend, in Friday morning’s “6:16 in L.A.” — but that song was an Instagram-only release, meaning its streams will not contribute to Billboard chart calculations, and it will not be eligible for the charts next week. However, “Like That” — the Future and Metro Boomin collab that kicked all of this off a month and a half ago — is also still hanging around the Hot 100’s top 10 (No. 8 this week, following its three-week reign), and is up in consumption following the brighter spotlight on the beef, so it will also certainly be in the mix for next week (if no longer a likely top-spot contender).
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Drake, “Family Matters” (OVO/Republic): Don’t forget about the other guy in the beef! Though Drake is obviously trailing both in terms of public opinion and in overall streams/sales count in this back-and-forth – as well as in terms of total songs, with just two this past weekend to Lamar’s stunning four – his “Family Matters” is still on pace for a very high bow on the Hot 100, as the Friday night-released diss track is still ranking in the top 10 on both Spotify and Apple Music. (Sunday night’s follow-up “The Heart Part 6” has only been released on YouTube so far.)
Tommy Richman, “Million Dollar Baby” (ISO Supermacy/Pulse): You gotta feel for Tommy Richman a little: If not for the Kendrick-Drake showdown generating more drama and attention than the entirety of the NBA playoffs, he’d very likely be the biggest story in the music world right now. The little-before-known Virginia singer-rapper debuts at No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week with his runaway breakthrough hit “Million Dollar Baby,” and the song has only been rising on streaming and in airplay and sales in its second week of release. But unless interest in the beef (or at least Kendrick’s musical part in it) tails off mightily in the last couple days of the tracking week, Richman’s likely gonna have to wait at least one more week to climb that last spot and take over the Hot 100’s apex.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. Next week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated May 11), Taylor Swift’s second week for The Tortured Poets Department should be less Hot 100-dominant than the first, allowing room for challengers from some much-less established stars (and one of her Eras Tour openers).
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Taylor Swift feat. Post Malone, “Fortnight” (Republic): Taylor Swift of course sets a record this week on the chart dated May 4 by locking down all 14 of the Hot 100’s top 14 spots with songs from her blockbuster new album The Tortured Poets Department, led by the Post Malone-featuring album opener and lead single, “Fortnight.” That song drew over 76 million official U.S. streams in its first week, according to Luminate – the best single-week mark for a song since YouTube user-generated content was removed from chart calculations in 2020 – while also bowing as the week’s top-selling track with 19,000 sold, and entering Radio Songs at a lofty No. 14 with its 31.1 million radio airplay audience impressions.
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The streams and sales should both drop considerably in the song’s second week – as is typical for debuts of its size – but radio should only continue to heat up from here, with the song already challenging for a top 10 spot on next week’s Pop Airplay chart. And while the streams will be down, they should still be fairly mighty in number, as the song remains in the top five on both Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily US charts and its official music video in the top five on YouTube’s Trending music chart.
Sabrina Carpenter, “Espresso” (Island/Republic): Swift’s primary competition for the chart’s top spot next week may come from her good friend and international Eras Tour dates opener Sabrina Carpenter. The multi-platform star’s new single “Espresso” became easily her highest-charting single on the Hot 100 with its No. 7 debut last week, and though it slides to No. 22 on this week’s chart, it remains the sixth-highest non-Swift song on the listing.
“Espresso” should be due for an enormous rebound on this week’s chart, as it continues to grow across the board (and some of Swift’s Tortured Poets tracks vacate the premises). It’s taken over the top spot on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart from “Fortnight,” and is currently scaling the Pop Airplay chart, bounding 32-25 there in its second frame. One of the only things holding it back is the fact that it’s competing on the airwaves with another of her recent hits: “Feather,” which is still hanging in the Hot 100’s top 50, and hits a new peak of No. 5 on this week’s Radio Songs chart.
Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE): As Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter continues to reel in the accolades, its widespread influence on pop culture is already undeniable. Perhaps the most obvious and immediate impact it has had is in the breakthrough success of country artist Shaboozey, who was a collaborator on two of the chart-topping album’s tracks and who just weeks later is already enjoying a crossover hit growing to near-”Texas Hold ‘Em” size, with the celebratory (if slightly melancholy) “A Bar Song (Tipsy).”
The breakout hit, which interpolates chorus and verse hooks from J-Kwon’s 2004 pop-rap classic “Tipsy,” is one of the only climbers on this week’s Swift-stuffed Hot 100, rising 36-27 on the chart despite the 20 Tortured Poets songs debuting above it. With the song still soaring on streaming – now top five on both Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily U.S. charts — while also leading on the iTunes real-time chart and beginning to get a foothold in country radio (as it hits No. 1 on the multimetric Hot Country Songs chart), it should be a contender on the Hot 100 for weeks to come, perhaps even challenging the No. 2 peak for the original “Tipsy” 20 years ago.
Tommy Richman, “Million Dollar Baby” (Pulse/ISO Supermacy): Virginia singer-rapper Tommy Richman first came to public prominence as the signee of (and opening act for) R&B hitmaker and fellow DMV native Brent Faiyaz. Now, he’s on track to score a crossover hit beyond any Faiyaz has yet enjoyed, with the TikTok-teased “Million Dollar Baby.” Released on Friday (April 26), the song has already reached the apex of Apple Music’s real-time chart, and its virality seems to only really be getting started – likely leading to a debut in the Hot 100’s top 10, and possibly the top five if it continues its early momentum.
Benson Boone, “Beautiful Things” (Night Street/Warner): Can’t count out Benson Boone, whose “Beautiful Things” has been in the mix for the spot for the last couple months now, and who only now seems to be finally peaking at radio, reaching No. 2 at Radio Songs and threatening to end Teddy Swims’ three-week reign on top. It might not be enough to unseat Swift and hold off all her many rising challengers, but ”Beautiful Things” is the highest-ranking non-Swift song on this week’s chart, so who knows? With a little late bump, maybe it could eclipse its prior No. 2 peak and finally get all the way to the Hot 100’s mountaintop.
Kendrick Lamar, “Euphoria” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): The big wild card on next week’s Hot 100 is of course Kendrick Lamar’s Drake response track “Euphoria,” which had a world-stopping debut on YouTube on Tuesday (April 30), and very quickly became what feels like the only song in the world that people are talking about. It arrived on other DSPs and online retailers later in the day, so it should have two full days of tracking along with a partial Tuesday to make up its incomplete first week of chart eligibility – not likely enough to fight for No. 1 in a crowded field, but certainly enough for a splash debut. We’ll see in the weeks to come whether it can follow Lamar’s Future and Metro Boomin collab “Like That” to pole position, and become the rapper’s second Drake-dissing Hot 100-topper of 2024.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated May 4), Taylor Swift zooms past her own already-historic career-best marks with the first week of her much-anticipated Tortured Poets Department album.
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Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): Apologies to grunge greats Pearl Jam’s Dark Matter, which should have a very nice first-week sales debut – but this week, it’s simply all about Taylor Swift. Her 16-track, much-hyped new album’s The Tortured Poets Department, which was expanded to 31 tracks mere hours after its initial release with the set’s subsequent Anthology Edition, is set to put up some absolutely stratospheric first-week numbers – zooming past the totals even for her recent Midnights and 1989 (Taylor’s Version) releases, which already but her in a class by herself this decade as far as debut tallies go.
Billboard has reported on her Poets numbers throughout the week, most recently updating them yesterday (April 23) for the days of April 19-22. Through those first four days of release, the album had racked up 1.6 million traditional album sales, including a modern-era record 800,000 of that in vinyl, according to initial reports to Luminate – both easily the highest such first-week numbers for the decade, passing Swift’s prior marks of 1.359 million and 693,000 for 1989 (TV). It’s also already the fifth-highest single-week sales mark for an album of the modern era (since Luminate began electronically tracking sales in 1991). The album is available for purchase in six vinyl variants, including editions named after album cuts “The Albatross,” “The Bolter,” “The Manuscript” and “The Black Dog,” which all also have CD versions available for sale on her webstore.
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Additionally, the 31 total tracks have amassed a combined 602.3 million official on-demand U.S. streams, which passes the 549.3 million streams posted by Midnights upon its October 2022 debut for the highest single-week mark for an album by a female artist. The only other albums that have posted higher single-week streaming marks are both by Drake — Scorpion posted 745.92 million in 2018 with its 25 tracks, and Certified Lover Boy totaled 743.67 million in 2021 with its 21 – both of which Swift would seem to be on pace to pass, with three days still to be accounted for in the Poets tracking week.
All in all, Tortured Poets Department is already up to 2.1 million equivalent album units in its first week of release, making it only the second album since the Billboard 200 began measuring by equivalent album units in December 2014 to clear the two million mark in a single week. The other, of course, is Adele’s 25, which posted a still-staggering 3.482 million first-week units (including 3.378 million in straight sales) upon its debut in November 2015. (*NSYNC’s No Strings Attached also earned 2.416 million in straight sales during its 2000 debut week, obviously long before Billboard calculations accounted for streaming.)
With sales and streams both slowing for Poets as the week goes on – a very normal arc for a blockbuster album release – it’s unlikely that the album will approach either of those Adele numbers. The album would have to average around 460,000 units a day over the final three days of the tracking week to challenge Adele’s 3.482 million total, and it added around 200,000 additional units on the 22nd. You can never count out a last-minute extra edition or two as far as Taylor Swift is concerned, and 2.5 million is definitely in range for her, but failing some extraordinary surge, it seems like the three-million mark will likely remain Adele-only territory for at least one more Swift album.
Swift should also remain in a class by herself when it comes to space occupied at the top of the Hot 100, however. For the second album of all-new material in a row – following Midnights in 2022 – Swift is a threat to lock down each of the top 10 positions on the Billboard Hot 100 with debuting tracks from the set, and this time her uninterrupted dominance could stretch into the teens as well, according to early data from Luminate. (Swift charting all 31 songs from Anthology is also certainly a possibility.)
The main threats to her top-dozen Hot 100 supremacy are of course Hozier’s “Too Sweet” and Future, Metro Boomin & Kendrick Lamar’s “Like That,” which occupy the top two spots on the chart this week (dated April 27), and Republic labelmate Drake’s own new release “Push Ups,” which debuted on streaming and at digital retailers on Friday after being available via internet leaks for the prior week. “Push Ups” is unlikely to get the streaming edge on any of Taylor’s top dozen Poets tracks, but its sales advantage – it remains in the top 20 on the iTunes real time chart, behind just eight of the Poets cuts – may be enough for it to get in the way if it continues through the end of the week.