State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 22, we look at the multiple Kendrick Lamar songs that could have a shot at capturing the No. 1 spot following the rapper’s Super Bowl halftime performance.
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Kendrick Lamar, “Not Like Us,” “Luther” (with SZA) & “TV Off” (feat. TV Gunplay) (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar just electrified the music-listening world with one of the most-anticipated Super Bowl halftime shows of all time — coming not just one week after a Grammy sweep on Feb. 2 that saw Lamar win all five of his nominations (including record and song of the year), but a year-long run of one W after another that saw him earn our editorial staff’s Greatest Pop Star of 2024 title. The performance was the most-watched in the show’s history, according to presenter Apple Music and the NFL, with over 133.5 million people tuning in to see K Dot take the ultimate victory lap.
And of course, the song they were most interested in seeing him play was his 2024 Billboard Hot 100-topper “Not Like Us.” The already-legendary diss track, our editorial staff’s No. 1 song of last year, had been tied up in litigation in recent months, thanks to lawsuits levied by its target, fellow rap superstar Drake, who seemed intent on making it difficult for his opponent to play the incendiary cut on the world’s biggest stage. But Lamar indeed delivered the song as his performance’s centerpiece, even offering a conspicuous (and already much-memed) smile to the camera upon his first “Say Drake…” mention.
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Though “Not Like Us” has been out for eight months already at this point, and enjoyed two separate trips to No. 1 on the Hot 100 (the second coming after the release of its similarly headline-capturing music video in July), it should have a good chance of capturing the top spot again this week. The song, which has continued to linger on the Hot 100 (already rebounding to No. 15 this week, in anticipation of Lamar’s set and following his big Grammy night), shot back to the top of the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart, the Apple Music real-time chart and the iTunes chart following Lamar’s performance, as its performance on Sunday night remains at the center of all pop- and hip-hop-related discussion this week.
But it’s not Lamar’s only track threatening the No. 1 spot this week. Lamar has also seen big gains this week for his GNX single “Luther,” which he and collaborator SZA also gave a centerpiece spot during his halftime set, and which currently ranks just below “Not Like Us” at No. 2 on each of the aforementioned rankings. And right underneath them is the Lefty Gunplay-featuring “TV Off,” which Lamar offered immediately following “Not Like Us” as the closing part of his performance – with producer Mustard coming out to dance and silently rap along to the anthem. “Luther” and “TV Off” are also in prime position on the Hot 100 currently, ranking at No. 3 and No. 10 on this week’s chart, respectively.
Radio play will also be a major factor in which of the Super Bowl-boosted Kendrick tracks plays the biggest threat to the Hot 100’s top spot next week. “Luther” is currently leading there, as it bounds from No. 14 to 11 on the Radio Songs chart this week, and has already been up another 9% in audience impressions over the first four days of this tracking week (Feb. 7-10), according to Luminate. But “TV Off” is also gaining, and “Not Like Us” is now rebounding as well, up a whopping 35% over that same four-day period.
If “Not Like Us” can sustain across streaming, sales and radio throughout the week, it might have the best chance of jumping to No. 1 next week – which would make it the extremely rare non-holiday single with three different runs at No. 1, each separated by multiple months. And regardless, we should see a whole lot of Kendrick Lamar in the top 10 next week.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG) & Lady Gaga, “Abracadabra” (Interscope/ICLG): “Die With a Smile” is officially the song to beat this early 2025, with the superstar duet returning for a fifth frame at No. 1 this week, after briefly being interrupted by Travis Scott’s pole position-debuting “4×4.” The song has even finally captured the crown on Radio Songs, after Shaboozey’s historic 27-week run atop that chart with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” and should also reign for a second week on that listing – though it will likely soon face serious competition from another starry Bruno Mars teamup, with ROSÉ on “APT.”
Speaking of Bruno and Gaga providing their own competition – the latter now has a breakout smash entirely of her own. Her “Abracadabra” bows at No. 29 on the Hot 100 this week with just over four days of tracking, after debuting with its music video as part of a Mastercard commercial during the Grammys. The song got off to a white-hot start on streaming, and continued growing in the days after, even briefly capturing the top spot on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart — though it has since gotten buried under an avalanche of Kendrick Lamar and SZA. Regardless, the song should make a big jump in its first full week on the Hot 100 – perhaps to the top 10, if it doesn’t get boxed out by Kendrick – and is already aiming to debut on Pop Airplay, as well.
Chappell Roan, “Pink Pony Club” (Amusement/Island): Don’t forget about the Grammys’ best new artist, who has been surging on the Hot 100 following her big win and show-stopping performance of what now appears to be the signature song of Roan’s early career, “Pink Pony Club.” Despite being originally released in 2020, the song is only now really catching on both streaming and radio, as it re-enters Streaming Songs at No. 24 and hits a new high of No. 32 on Radio Songs this week. It should continue climbing on both listings next week, and may also rise on the Hot 100, after hitting a new peak of No. 18 this week.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 15, we look at the biggest threats to capture the No. 1 spot after Travis Scott’s “4×4” debuted atop the listing this week.
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Morgan Wallen, “I’m the Problem” (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Perhaps the most consistent artist in the upper stretches of the Billboard charts the past two years has been Morgan Wallen, who has racked up three Hot 100 No. 1s since 2023 (with his own “Last Night” and “Love Somebody” and the Post Malone-led “I Had Some Help”) and another five top 10 hits. On Friday (Jan. 31), he returned with the new single “I’m the Problem,” a bitter song about a toxic relationship that will serve as the lead single and title track for his upcoming fourth album, his first since 2023’s behemoth One Thing at a Time (still in the Billboard 200’s top five nearly two years later).
Unsurprisingly, “Problem” is off to a strong start on streaming, topping both the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA and the real-time Apple Music chart after its Friday release. The song has started to slide on both listings perhaps a little quicker than expected, with it being replaced by SZA’s Kendrick Lamar-featuring “30 for 30” atop the Apple Music chart and falling all the way out of the top 10 already on the Spotify listing. But it remains in the top 10 on iTunes even after getting passed by a number of Grammy-boosted songs, and it’s off to a hot start at country radio, with over eight million airplay impressions in its first four days of tracking (through Feb. 3), according to Luminate.
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“Problem” might not quite have the streaming start to be on the inside track for a No. 1 debut, but it should at least be another top 10 hit for the dominant country superstar.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Despite Lady Gaga being present and performing at the two most high-profile multi-artist gigs of 2025 so far – Thursday’s FireAid concert at the Intuit Dome, where she closed out the multi-hour fundraising event, and Sunday’s Grammys, where she actually performed with Bruno Mars – she did not play her and Mars’ four-week No. 1 at either show. (Gaga and Bruno instead covered The Mamas and the Papas’ ‘60s classic “California Dreamin’” at Music’s Biggest Night.) Nevertheless, the song could get a bump from its win for best pop duo/group performance, and for Gaga’s headline-capturing acceptance speech standing up for the trans community.
In any event, “Die With a Smile” remains a monster on streaming, sticking in the top 10 on Apple Music and climbing back to No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Songs Top USA chart. It also continues to threaten the reign of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” on radio, though that 27-week Radio Songs No. 1 might not give up that spot so easily. Regardless, its continued strong showing across streaming, sales and radio, it should be a pretty strong contender to return to No. 1 for a fifth frame next week.
The Weeknd, “Cry for Me” & “Timeless” (w/ Playboi Carti) (XO/Republic): The Weeknd had a pretty enormous weekend, appropriately, as he both released his new album Hurry Up Tomorrow on Friday and then made a surprise return to the Grammys stage on Sunday after essentially boycotting the awards for four years after his After Hours blockbuster was shockingly ignored by the Recording Academy in 2021. The two songs he performed at the Grammys are also the two leading early performers from Tomorrow: “Timeless,” the Playboi Carti teamup that has already reached No. 3 on the Hot 100, and “Cry for Me,” a newly released early-album highlight.
Both songs should be a factor in the top 10 race next week. “Cry for Me” has the edge on Apple Music, while “Timeless” leads on Spotify – and “Timeless” is obviously ahead on radio, having a months-long head start building airplay (though “Cry for Me” should debut on Pop Airplay and Rhythmic Airplay this week). Neither is likely to be No. 1 next week, but The Weeknd always has tricks up his sleeve to give his hits a little extra boot, so they can’t be totally counted out in the weeks to come.
Travis Scott, “4×4” (Cactus Jack/Epic): The current No. 1 song on the Hot 100 is likely to have a considerable drop in week two, as the gargantuan first-week sales number the song posted (167,000) inevitably recedes, and the streaming numbers continue to slide. (The song is already out of the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music.) Nonetheless, Travis Scott‘s “4×4” won’t disappear completely, and has started to make gains on radio, with the song expected to jump on Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay in its second week, and possibly even make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay.
Doechii, “Denial Is a River” (Top Dawg/Capitol/ICLG): It won’t be a top 10 contender just yet, but the breakout hit from Doechii’s now-Grammy-winning mixtape Alligator Bites Never Heal (which she performed, along with “Catfish”) should be the biggest beneficiary from her post-Grammy-night bump in streams and sales — and had already started to make pretty big waves on the charts, climbing to No. 55 on the Hot 100 this week. Radio is starting to kick in for the track as well, with “Denial” also a threat to make the top 20 on Rhythmic Airplay while shooting up Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Feb. 8, we look at a bunch of new albums, led by the sequel set from one of last year’s greatest chart breakthrough stories.
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Teddy Swims, I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy (Pt. 2) (SWIMS Int./Warner): Few artists enjoyed a mainstream breakout in 2024 like Teddy Swims, whose megaballad “Lose Control” not only topped the 2024 year-end Billboard Hot 100 after first reaching the chart in late 2023, but which still ranks in the listing’s top 10 this week. That song came from Swims’ debut album I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Pt. 1), which reached No. 17 on the Billboard 200 and spawned a second hit in the more uptempo No. 26-peaking “The Door.”
Now, the big-voiced Georgia singer-songwriter is back with that set’s follow-up, logically titled I’ve Tried Everything but Therapy (Pt. 2). The new album is available in eight vinyl variants, including one signed by Swims, as well as standard and signed CD editions, and a standard digital download. The set also features two more chart hits in “Bad Dreams” (No. 57) and Giveon collab “Are You Even Real” (No. 59), with Swims performing the latter on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon Jan. 23, just before the album’s release.
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Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): Speaking of Fallon: His recent co-host Bad Bunny should provide the biggest challenge to Swims scoring his first No. 1 on the Billboard 200 next week. Debí Tirar Más Fotos climbed to the chart’s apex — after debuting at No. 2 in an incomplete debut tracking week — and moved a fairly staggering 203,500 units in its second frame, as the critically acclaimed album continued to catch fire on streaming through word of mouth and through a handful of viral hits, most notably quasi-title track “DtMF,” which shot to No. 2 on the Hot 100.
This week, the set has cooled down a little from its blazing start, but remains a major force across streaming – claiming six of the top 25 spots on Apple Music’s real time chart and five of the top 25 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA, including “DtMF” still reigning at No. 1. No tracks from the Swims set are currently even in the top 50 on either chart, which means it will have to sell a tremendous number of physical copies to threaten Bad Bunny’s blockbuster on next week’s chart – a big ask for such a still relatively new artist.
Kane Brown, The High Road (RCA Nashville): A longer-established hitmaker with a new set this week is country star Kane Brown, who has hit the Billboard 200’s top five with each of his top three albums, including 2018s’ chart-topping Experiment. His new set The High Road – not to be confused with recent “High Road” country hits by Zach Bryan and Koe Wetzel & Jessie Murph – features 18 tracks, including already-minted hits “Miles on It” (with EDM star Marshmello) and the Phil Collins-interpolating “I Can Feel It.” The album is available in nine vinyl variants (including signed editions), as well as three d2c-only digital album variants with different cover art, and at leat four CD variants, also including signed editions.
IN THE MIX
Central Cee, Can’t Rush Greatness (CC4L/Columbia): U.K. MC Central Cee has been one of the globe’s hottest rappers for most of the 2020s album, but is only now releasing debut album Can’t Rush Greatness – hence the title. The 17-track set features U.S. rap stars 21 Savage, Lil Durk and Lil Baby, the latter on last year’s top 20 Hot 100 hit “BAND4BAND.” The album should stream well, and has already caused a minor internet fury with its track “5 Star” — which contained rhymes perceived as a diss towards fellow U.K. hip-hop hitmaker Aitch, who responded the same day of its release with his own “A Guy Called?”
FKA twigs, Eusexua (Young/Altantic): Wildly acclaimed for over a decade now, U.K. electro-soul singer-songwriter FKA twigs is back this week with the much-anticipated Eusexua, her first LP since 2022’s Caprisongs. The album is available in six vinyl variants, signed and unsigned CDs, cassette and two digital download variants, one a d2c exclusive with a bonus track. Twigs definitely hasn’t lost her fastball as a critics’ darling, as Eusexua is already one of the year’s strongest-reviewed sets, including a rare 9.1 rating from Pitchfork.
Welcome to Billboard‘s Trending Up newsletter, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip.
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This week: Performers at President Trump’s second inauguration are up in sales but static in streams, Hozier takes over streaming with a new-old cover and a couple generation-separated indie singer-songwriters go viral for very different songs.
Inauguration Performances Spur Modest Sales Gains (But Streaming Dips) for Carrie Underwood, Nelly & More
The presidential inauguration of Donald Trump on Monday (Jan. 20) included multiple events with a variety of musical performances — many of which earned criticism from fans of artists aligning themselves with Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency, as well as statements by those artists defending their appearances. Chief among them were Carrie Underwood, who sang “America the Beautiful” after Trump delivered his inaugural address, and Nelly, who performed at the Liberty Inaugural Ball.
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Although both the former American Idol winner and the St. Louis rapper made headlines for their performances connected to the inauguration, neither experienced much movement in their daily streaming totals as a result. Underwood’s catalog earned 1.46 million U.S. on-demand streams on Monday, down nearly 6% from the previous Monday (1.55 million on Jan. 13), according to Luminate. Nelly’s streaming catalog was also down 5%, from 1.63 million on Jan. 13 to 1.54 million on Inauguration Day. However, both artists experienced upticks in digital sales those days, with Underwood and Nelly moving a couple hundred extra daily downloads (although still posting fewer than 1,000 downloads for the day).
So how did a more politically outspoken performer fare? Kid Rock, a longtime Trump supporter who played a rally at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. the night before the inauguration, posted the slightest uptick in catalog streams on Inauguration Day (1.08 million, up from 1.07 million the previous Monday), as well as comparable gains in digital sales as Underwood and Nelly. – JASON LIPSHUTZ
Fans ‘Wanna Know’ About Hozier’s 2014 Arctic Monkeys Cover
It feels like a fever dream of mid-’10s Tumblr alt-rock: Hozier, singer-songwriter behind one of the biggest and best-loved alt-rock hits of 2014, covering one of the year’s other biggest and best-loved hits in Arctic Monkeys’ “Do I Wanna Know.” The Irish crossover star did indeed do just that a decade ago, with a sweetly tender BBC Live Lounge rendition of the stomping late-night staple. Hozier’s version was never released as a single, but it did make an appearance on the special edition of his self-titled debut album, released in 2015.
Now, the song has taken on new life, as Hozier fans – who have multiplied in number over the past decade, especially following the release of his Hot 100-topping “Too Sweet” last year – have rediscovered the yearning cover, making it go viral all across social media, and on YouTube where the 10-year-old performance clip currently rates as one of the channel’s top 50 videos. The cover has particularly exploded over the last five days, amassing over 1.4 million combined official on-demand U.S. streams, up 3,941% from the same period the previous week, according to Luminate. And of course, the Arctic Monkeys original is feeling the spillover love too: The U.K. band’s original “Do I Wanna Know” racked up 3.5 million streams for the week ending Jan. 16, up 44% from the prior frame. – ANDREW UNTERBERGER
Beabadoobee’s ‘Real Man’ Becomes Her Latest Viral Hit
Beabadoobee has spent the past half-decade successfully braiding traditional indie-pop album releases and promotion with viral moments, as songs like her Powfu collaboration “Death Bed (Coffee for Your Head)” and her own “The Perfect Pair” have earned hundreds of millions of streams after blowing up with the TikTok set. The British singer-songwriter has now done it again with “Real Man,” the smoky, piano-laced standout from last year’s full-length This is How Tomorrow Moves.
The chorus line of “I guess no one ever taught you how to be a real man” has inspired a flex-inflected TikTok dance and wave of lip synchs, helping “Real Man” break through on streaming platforms. A month ago, the track earned 1.84 million U.S. on-demand streams for the week ending Dec. 26, according to Luminate; that number has now nearly doubled, to 3.67 million for the week ending Jan. 16. Meanwhile, “The Perfect Pair,” which went viral back in 2022, is going viral again (re-viraling?) thanks to “Real Man” listeners discovering the older track, with 3.68 million streams for the week ending Jan. 16 — up nearly 30% from a month ago. – JL
Julie Doiron Sets Her Calendar for a Surprise Viral Hit
A breakout hit would’ve been something close to unforeseeable for Julie Doiron even at the peak of her ‘90s hipness. The Canadian lo-fi indie singer-songwriter (and bassist for underground favorites Eric’s Trip) had never made significant impact on the Billboard charts during her now three-decade recording career, releasing a consistent stream of well-received albums but never really even threatening a crossover moment. That’s changed in the last couple months, however, as Doiron has scored one of the surprise streaming hits of the early year: “August 10,” from 1996’s Broken Girl.
The slow, sad and still determinedly un-pop ballad has taken off on TikTok – not due to any particular trend or synch or influencer endorsement, but just through a series of popular recreations (of both Doiron’s vocals and her bare-bones guitar playing) and emotional videos set to the pleading verse. The striking song has hit enough of a nerve – seasonal sadness, perhaps – that it has exploded to over four million official on-demand U.S. streams in the week ending Jan. 16, according to Luminate, part of a steady climb that’s seen the song rise a little every week going back to last November. The streaming activity has even powered the song to a debut on Billboard’s Hot Rock Songs listing, reaching a No. 12 peak. If it’s doing this well in January, imagine what might happen when we actually get to August. – AU
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 chart dated Feb. 1, we look at whether the surging quasi-title track from Bad Bunny’s latest will be able to get over the top on the chart.
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Bad Bunny, “DtMF” (Rimas): It’s been a triumphant week for Bad Bunny on the Billboard 200, as the Puerto Rican superstar has topped the chart with his new album Debí Tirar Mas Fotos, a personal album largely inspired by the salsa and plena music of his home territory. Though the album debuted at No. 2 – behind Lil Baby’s WHAM – thanks in large part to the set’s release on a Sunday, already two days into the chart tracking week, it climbs to No. 1 this week with 203,500 equivalent album units earned in the U.S., according to Luminate, a staggering number for any album’s second week, showing how many people were still discovering the album following its unusually timed drop.
Bunny would no doubt love to have the same thing happen with the set’s near-title track, “DtMF,” on the Billboard Hot 100. Despite appearing as the album’s penultimate track – number 16 out of 17 — and being something of a departure from Bad Bunny’s usual Latin trap-and-reggaetón-led sound, the song has exploded on streaming services, with fans attaching to its singalong chorus and sentimental lyrics, particularly on TikTok. It’s now pretty clearly the set’s biggest breakout hit, leaping from No. 38 all the way to No. 2 on this week’s Hot 100.
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The song’s explosive growth on streaming seems to be settling down a bit in its third week, though it continues to lead on both Apple Music’s real-time chart and Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. What really might get in the way of it getting over the top on the Hot 100 is radio airplay: While the song is now being promoted to radio, its airplay has been fairly minimal so far, as the song still trails three other tracks on Fotos, led by advance single “El Clúb.” It’s hard to imagine the unconventionally structured, entirely Spanish-language song ever becoming a major fixture on U.S. top 40, but Bad Bunny might need at least a little radio love to edge out some of the radio-friendlier songs it’s going to be in competition with in the weeks to come – particularly the song currently topping the chart.
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): Like Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” in 2024, the chances looked dicey at first for Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ “Die With a Smile” to ever get to No. 1 – but now that it’s finally there, it might be sticking around for a little while. The song spends its third frame on top of the chart this week, while actually gaining in both streaming and sales, and remains in the top three of all three Hot 100 component charts: Radio Songs, Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs.
That combination could make “Smile” tough to unseat on the Hot 100 in the weeks to come. The song is even challenging to finally take over the No. 1 spot on Radio Songs – which would be its first week atop the listing, with “A Bar Song” having reigned for the past 25 weeks (one week away from tying The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights” for the longest stay atop the chart). And if you’re looking for your early frontrunner for No. 1 on the 2025 year-end Hot 100, it’s gotta be Gaga and Bruno – an honor the latter hasn’t won since the Mark Ronson-led “Uptown Funk!” in 2015, and which the former has still yet to capture in her illustrious pop career.
ROSÉ & Bruno Mars, “APT.” (Atlantic): Bruno Mars’ biggest competition for all-platform pop dominance this early year might of course come from himself. “APT.,” his collaboration with K-pop star and BLACKPINK alum ROSÉ, was already well on its way to breakout smash status in late 2024, and has only continued to grow well into 2025, reaching the Hot 100’s top five – proof not only of ROSÉ’s rising solo star in the U.S., but of Mars’ status as perhaps the single-most can’t-miss pop hitmaker on the entire planet right now.
“APT.” leads on the Digital Song Sales chart for the first time this week, while slipping to No. 9 on Streaming Songs and climbing to No. 11 (after having previously peaked at No. 10) on Radio Songs. The latter chart of course remains its biggest opportunity for growth, as the song is not only challenging for top 10 again on the all-format Radio Songs, but for the No. 1 spot on Pop Airplay. If the song’s streaming performance settles a little in the weeks to come while it continues to spread out on the airwaves, we could very easily see a Bruno vs. Bruno battle at the top of the Hot 100 in the not-too-distant future.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 25, 2025, we look at whether a new growing blockbuster from Bad Bunny will claim the top spot, or whether it will be lapped by the shipment of a beloved Taylor Swift live set.
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Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): The latest LP from Puerto Rican global superstar Bad Bunny might have already been the No. 1 album in the country had it enjoyed a full tracking week. But due to its Sunday release (Jan. 5), two days into tracking, it pulled up just short, posting 122,000 first-week units and falling behind Lil Baby’s WHAM set, which bowed at No. 1 with 140,000 units.
The good news for Fotos is that it keeps growing. While the album’s first-day numbers on streaming were solid but unexceptional, they’ve ballooned nearly every day since – an extremely unusual trajectory for a new release by an established superstar – to the point where the album now claims the top three spots on both the Apple Music real-time chart and the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA listing. (Both rankings are led by the viral smash “DtMF,” which could also challenge for a top spot on the Billboard Hot 100 next week.)
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The runaway streaming success of Fotos, combined with it now getting the benefits of a full week of tracking (as well as a heavy week of promo, including a recent Subway Busking performance with Jimmy Fallon) means that the set should have an even better showing in its second frame – perhaps more in line with the opening week of Bunny’s previous album, 2023’s Nadie Sabie Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, which managed 184,000 units in its Billboard 200-topping debut week.
Taylor Swift, Lover (Live in Paris) (Republic): The City of Lover live show that Taylor Swift played in Paris in 2019 has long held a special place in the hearts of Swifties – both for its intimate acoustic versions of many highlights from 2019’s Lover set, and for the fact that it was one of the final full live shows Swift performed for some years, after her planned Lover Fest mini-tour was canceled in the wake of the 2020 COVID pandemic and she was forced to regroup for 2023-24’s world-conquering Eras Tour. In 2020, the set was aired as an ABC live special, followed by the limited-edition release a double-LP version of the set in 2023, entitled Lover (Live From Paris), collecting eight performances from the gig.
That release was limited to 13,000 copies, and of course sold out, resulting in a No. 58 bow on the Billboard 200. The set was re-released this Jan. 7, however, as a 72-hour webstore exclusive, and is expected to sell a whole lot more than that this time around. The impact it has on this upcoming Billboard 200 will depend on when the copies of it officially ship – her webstore noted that all copies would ship “on or before Jan. 20,” but with many Swifties apparently having already received their copies, it seems likely to be a real contender for next week.
Could it beat out Bad Bunny’s burgeoning blockbuster? Despite her 14 career No. 1s on the Billboard 200, Swift has never reached the apex with a live set – with 2020’s No. 3-peaking Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions coming closest. But with the combination of the set’s reputation among Swifties, those fans’ love for collecting her records (with Taylor claiming five of the top 10 best-selling vinyl LPs of 2024) the half-decade wait since the special initially aired and how she’s gotten exponentially bigger in the last few years… as with nearly everything Taylor Swift-related in 2025, it’s probably not a great idea to bet against her.
Lil Baby, WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): Last week’s No. 1 seems pretty sure for some degree of fall-off in its second frame. Its opening number of 140,000 got a big lift from direct-to-consumer album sales (in CD and digital download form), helping it get 50,000 of those first-week units, which is almost always much lower in an album’s second week. And on streaming, Lil Baby‘s set is clearly slipping – it’s still littering the Apple Music chart, but with only one song (the Future- and Young Thug-featuring “Dum, Dumb and Dumber”) in the top 20, and it claims just two total entries in Spotify’s 200-position Daily Top Songs USA chart. That’s not shocking by any means – most big streaming albums do experience a big drop-off in week two – but it just shows how remarkable it is that Fotos is still expanding like it is. (WHAM should still get a small boost on streaming from the Friday release of its deluxe edition – featuring four bonus tracks – to DSPs, having previously been available only for purchase as part of the deluxe on the Motown webstore.)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 18, 2025, we look at whether new releases from Lil Baby or Bad Bunny can unseat a reigning blockbuster that dates back to 2022.
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Lil Baby, WHAM (Quality Control/Motown): One of the biggest names in music at the turn of the 2020s, Atlanta rapper Lil Baby has been less dominant on the charts the past couple years but still draws a good deal of attention every time out. On Friday (Jan. 2), he released his new set WHAM – not named after the ‘80s U.K. duo who just hit a new peak of No. 3 on the Billboard Hot 100 with the holiday staple “Last Christmas,” but an acronym standing for Who Hard as Me – with 15 brand new cuts, including features from fellow ATL superstars Future, Young Thug and 21 Savage and other big names like Travis Scott, GloRilla and Rod Wave.
The set is off to a strong start on streaming – particularly on Apple Music, where it continues to litter the top 100 of its real-time chart five days after release, while also claiming the No. 1 spot with the Future and Thug teamup “Dum, Dumb and Dumber.” It should also be helped by sales of the set’s deluxe digital edition on Baby’s webstore available for $4.99, which boasts four new songs not currently available on DSPs, including another Future collab in “99.” (He also has a standard CD available for purchase at his webstore, along with a couple “Fan Packs” that include additional merch, offering a discount on the CD if you buy the merch along with it.)
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It should all add up to WHAM having a pretty good chance to make it big on the Billboard 200 next week. If it can claim the top spot, it would be Lil Baby’s fourth consecutive visit there this decade, after previously hitting No. 1 with 2020’s My Turn, 2021’s Lil Durk teamup The Voice of the Heroes and 2022’s It’s Only Me.
Bad Bunny, Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Rimas): Another one of the biggest stars of the early 2020s, Bad Bunny dropped his new album Debí Tirar Más Fotos (I Should Have Taken More Photos) on Sunday (Jan. 5). The 17-track LP – which contains just a handful of collaborations, and none with household-name artists – has been hailed by critics as a “homecoming” for the artist born Benito Antonio Martinez Ocasio, who spends much of the set dabbling in genres native to his home country of Puerto Rico like salsa and plena.
Fotos has seen robust early returns on streaming, though it has yet to produce a clear breakout hit, and neither of its advance tracks (“El Clúb” or “Pitorro de Coco”) made much of an impression on the Hot 100 upon their release. The album is also currently available for physical release, with only a digital version available on his webstore and iTunes for $4.99. Its debut numbers will also certainly be dampened by the set’s Sunday release, which means it will be missing two days’ worth of consumption from its first week of tracking.
Still, Bad Bunny will always be a factor in the Billboard 200 albums race when he releases a new LP. Like Lil Baby, he has sent his last three albums this decade to No. 1 on the chart: 2020’s El Último Tour del Mundo, 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti and 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana.
SZA, SOS (Top Dawg/RCA): SZA’s R&B sophomore blockbuster SOS had already been a 10-week No. 1 on the Billboard 200 from late 2022 to early 2023, and one of the most acclaimed and beloved albums of the first half of the 2020s. But at the beginning of this year, SOS returned to the top of the chart, thanks to a boost provided by the release of its deluxe edition, titled LANA. The re-release featured 14 totally new cuts (as well as the previously released Hot 100 top 10 hit “Saturn”), including “30 for 30,” a collaboration with her upcoming stadium tour co-headliner Kendrick Lamar.
The set has now reigned on the Billboard 200 for the first two chart weeks of the calendar year, with six-figure units posted in each frame. Those numbers will likely slip a little in the third week of release for LANA, but considering SOS remained one of the top-streamed albums for years after its release even before she dropped the deluxe edition – it was still No. 15 on the Billboard 200 in the final chart week of 2024 – it should still be a very strong performer on the chart next week, and hardly a low bar to clear for either Baby or Bunny.
Welcome to Billboard Pro’s Trending Up newsletter, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip.
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This week: Shaboozey’s SNL appearance gets him that much closer to a second solo hit, an early MGMT clip helps one of their classic singles go viral again and a new dance trends revives a 2Pac Hot 100-topper.
“Good News” on a Saturday Night for Shaboozey’s Second Hit
Shaboozey has been nearly unavoidable in the past few months, with appearances at the CMA Awards and in the Grammy nominations and of course on the Billboard Hot 100, where his four-quadrant smash “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” reigned for a record-tying 19 weeks over the late summer and autumn. Now, he can add a Saturday Night Live stamp to his 2024 passport, as the country singer-songwriter made his debut on the weekly NBC comedy and live music institution on Nov. 30, performing both “A Bar Song” and his new single, “Good News” — the latter of which recently debuted at No. 71 on the Hot 100.
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As “Good News” aims to become Shaboozey’s second big crossover hit in a row, the boost it got from his emotional SNL performance should undoubtedly help. “Good News” was up a solid 13% in U.S. on-demand audio streams to 1.5 million across the Sunday and Monday following his appearance from the same period the week before, according to Luminate — but more notably, it was up 424% in sales to over 2,200 over that same two-day period. “A Bar Song,” which has led Digital Song Sales for 15 non-consecutive weeks already, was also up in sales over that timespan — rising 86% to nearly 2,600 across the two days — as the pair of Shaboozey singles claimed the top two spots on the real-time iTunes chart.
It may not boost “Good News” to a new Hot 100 peak next week, as the song struggles to get its head above the flood of holiday songs crashing onto the chart in recent weeks — but it bodes well for the song finding its way as a jukebox singalong in its own right by early 2025. — ANDREW UNTERBERGER
2Pac’s Former Hot 100 No. 1 Sees TikTok Resurgence
Two weeks after Kendrick Lamar’s GNX brought renewed attention to “Made N—az” (K.Dot flipped the 1997 track on “Reincarnated”), another 2Pac song is seeing notable streaming gains. Thanks to an infectious new dance trend featuring choreography from TikTok creators @roniahalynn_ and @donthurtemniaa, 2Pac’s K-Ci and JoJo-assisted “How Do U U Want It” is up over 102% in streaming activity over the past four weeks, according to Luminate.
Official on-demand U.S. streams for “How Do U Want It” were hovering around 900,000 before user @roniahalynn_ posted her version of the dance on Nov. 15. By the end of that week, “How Do U Want It” rose 14%, pulling over 1.02 million streams during the period of Nov. 15-21. User @roniahalynn_’s original clip has since collected over 1.9 million views on TikTok, and the sound she used now boasts over 209,000 posts. An additional unofficial sound using bits of 2Pac’s track plays in over 138,000 posts, while another unofficial sound plays in nearly 50,000 posts. The official “How Do U Want It” sound plays in just under 10,000 posts.
During the period of Nov. 22-28, streaming activity for “How Do U Want It” increased a whopping 44% to over 1.48 million streams. That figure rose a further 16% the following week (Nov. 29-Dec. 5), to over 1.7 million official on-demand U.S. streams. Notably, user @donthurtemniaa’s original dance trend is soundtracked by 22Daboat’s “Munyun.”
Already having entered the TikTok Billboard Top 50 at No. 16 (dated Dec. 7), expect 2Pac’s former Billboard Hot 100 chart-topper to continue rising in streams as the dance trend grows. – KYLE DENIS
MGMT Playing “Kids” as Kids: Old Footage Spurs New Streaming Gains
In 2003, Andrew VanWyngarden and Ben Goldwasser were students at Wesleyan University, performing tiny gigs on campus under the band name The Management. The duo would eventually re-brand as MGMT, become a defining group of the late-‘00s indie boom, score a best new artist Grammy nomination, and move on to a winding, often quite fruitful recording career, including this year’s album Loss of Life. But this week, the Internet is enjoying an unexpected look at those early college shows, thanks to some newly discovered footage of The Artist Eventually Known as MGMT performing their undeniable 2008 synth-pop single “Kids.”
A video uploaded by the YouTube user Rad Scientist on Nov. 28 features VanWyngarden and Ben Goldwasser playing an outdoor daytime gig for their friends in front of a brick wall, running around and sprawling across the ground when they’re not presenting an early (but mostly intact) version of the song that would become “Kids.” The clip went viral last week, and the unexpected trip down memory lane helped “Kids” grow by 60% in weekly U.S. on-demand streams, from 1.11 million in the week ending Nov. 28 to 1.78 million the following week, according to Luminate. The streaming uptick will likely last a few weeks, but who knows? Indie nostalgia is a powerful thing — maybe we get unearthed footage of Vampire Weekend performing “Campus” on campus next. – JASON LIPSHUTZ
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 21, 2024, we look at Taylor Swift’s recently resumed reign on the chart, and whether the solo bow of a K-pop star can challenge it.
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Taylor Swift, The Tortured Poets Department (Republic): Since late August, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department album has been stuck at 15 weeks at No. 1 – still the longest run of both Swift’s career and of any 2024 album. But now, its reign has resumed, thanks in large part to the physical release of the album’s 31-track Anthology edition – which had never been previously available for purchase besides in digital form – as a Target in-store exclusive on both CD and vinyl, with four additional bonus tracks (which had previously been released in other alternative versions of the album).
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The album sold 368,000 copies last tracking week (ending Dec. 5) – split nearly evenly between CD and vinyl purchases – and moved 405,000 units overall, according to Luminate. That was good not only for the biggest single-week number posted by an album since Poets itself moved 439,000 in its second week of release, but also a bigger number than any non-Swift artist has managed in 2024 outside of Beyoncé, whose Cowboy Carter debuted with 407,000 units in April.
That number probably won’t be as sizeable this week, but the drop off might not be as steep as some other albums that get big post-release bumps from physical drops. Swift also released Poets for order from Target.com shortly after the in-store release, with those copies impacting this current tracking week (and thus next week’s Billboard 200). So don’t be surprised if the album sells well into the six digits again this week – and perhaps gets Swift to a 17th week at No. 1 for Poets, moving it just two weeks shy of Morgan Wallen’s 2020s-best 19 weeks at No. 1 with 2023’s One Thing at a Time.
ROSÉ, Rosie (The Black Label/Atlantic): One of the year’s most-anticipated solo debuts comes from BLACKPINK breakout star ROSÉ, with her first official solo LP Rosie. The set obviously comes pre-blessed with a true breakout hit in the Bruno Mars collab “APT.,” which debuted at No. 8 on the Billboard Hot 100 – a higher peak than ROSÉ had previously reached, with or without her superstar group – and has also topped the Global 200 for seven weeks and counting.
Mars is the only featured artist on the album’s 12-song tracklist, but the writer and producer credits are littered with recognizable names: Amy Allen, Cirkuit, Rock City, Sarah Aarons, D’Mile, Omer Fedi, Emily Warren and Greg Kurstin all among them. Mars himself even shows up a second time, as a co-writer on “Number One Girl,” the album’s lead track and second single. Everything points to the album being a big priority for her Atlantic label, and a set likely to launch ROSÉ to true solo stardom.
A No. 1 bow on the Billboard 200 may be a tougher ask, however, with Swift’s blockbuster album still doing the kind of numbers it is. Nonetheless, ROSÉ is expected to stream well – helped in no small part by “APT.,” which is still in the top 20 of the Streaming Songs chart even following an avalanche of Christmas classics and new Kendrick Lamar songs taking over the listing – and sell in robust numbers, with more than 15 different physical variants of the album made available across CD and vinyl, all coming with collectibles, some of which are randomized. (There’s also a digital edition on her webstore with an exclusive live version of “Number One Girl.”)
Sabrina Carpenter, Fruitcake (Island): Have you watched A Nonsense Christmas With Sabrina Carpenter yet on Netflix? If so, and if you’re still in the (slightly naughty) festive spirit afterwards, you might do well to revisit Carpenter’s Fruitcake EP, released in late 2023 — which included a holiday-themed spin on her breakout hit “Nonsense” new originals like “Santa Doesn’t Know You Like I Do” and “Cindy Lou Who” and even a version of the Irving Berlin perennial “White Christmas” (cheekily stylized “White Xmas”).
And more good news for you there: Fruitcake was also finally given wide physical release on Friday, with the album being issued on CD, cassette and vinyl – with three different variants of the latter, including a Target exclusive. (Previously, the set was only available in one color of vinyl on her webstore.) The “Queen of Christmas” title may already be spoken for by the artist currently claiming the Hot 100’s top spot, but perhaps room can be made for a new Princess.
TWICE, STRATEGY (JYP Entertainment): Star K-pop nonet TWICE has already topped the Billboard 200 once this year with March’s With YOU-th – though it’ll be a tougher mountain to climb in this packed week for the group’s seven-track latest STRATEGY. Nonetheless, the set – which features a guest verse from U.S. rap superstar Megan Thee Stallion on its title-track opener — should sell very well, with help from 15 different physical variants of the album across CD and vinyl formats. There are also a number of digital album variants available with “voice memo” bonus tracks exclusive to the group’s webstore.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Dec. 14, 2024, we dive into the post-Thanksgiving holiday rush and if it will overwhelm Kendrick Lamar’s Hot 100 dominance.
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Kendrick Lamar, “TV Off” and “Squabble Up” (pgLang/Interscope/ICLG): Kendrick Lamar’s surprise-released GNX album debuts atop this week’s Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 7), while absolutely blanketing the Hot 100, with seven songs bowing in the top 10 and 10 in its top 15. That of course includes the No. 1-debuting “Squabble Up” — which halts Shaboozey’s chances of scoring an unprecedented 20th week at No. 1 with “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” at least for now – as well as “TV Off” right behind it, and the SZA collab “Luther” at No. 3. (Lamar also has the Nos. 4 and 5 songs this week, making him one of just four artists in Hot 100 history to simultaneously claim an entire top five.)
Next week, though, Lamar may have two songs competing to be his top-ranking on the chart. The viral “TV Off” has overtaken “Squabble” on both the real-time Apple Music and Daily Top Songs USA Spotify rankings – as has “Luther,” though “TV” still leads both – but “Squabble” has the advantage of both a buzzy music video and an early lead on radio, with 4.6 million in all-format airplay Nov. 29-Dec. 2 (the first four days of the tracking week), according to Luminate. (The other two are also getting some airplay; “TV Off” is at 3.1 million and “Luther,” 2.6 million.)
All three, of course, will invariably be down in consumption as excitement wears off from the GNX surprise release. It’s only wearing off slowly, though – the album still claims the top three Daily Top Songs USA on Spotify, and incredibly, the entire top 10 on Apple Music’s real time chart – so both songs should still be in the mix.
Mariah Carey, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” (Columbia/Legacy): Mariah Season officially kicks off immediately after Halloween, but it always hits a new gear after Thanksgiving wraps. Sure enough, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” has been jing-jing-jingling up the rankings on streaming, sales and radio this week — per building data, it’s the highest-ranking holiday song in all three Hot 100 metrics, with double-digit percentage gains expected in streaming and airplay. The song also returns to the Hot 100’s top 10 this week, at No. 10.
If it can’t capture the top spot next week – and it will be a strong contender to do so — it may get a particular boost the week after, with the Dec. 6 (Friday) release of four physical versions of the 1994 single, in celebration of its 30th anniversary. If and when it does get to No. 1 on the Hot 100, it would mark the song’s 15th week atop the chart – leaving it just four shy of the all-time mark now shared by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” and Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” — meaning it might not be more than a holiday season or two away from putting that record in its sights.
Brenda Lee, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” (Decca/MCA Nashville/UMe) & Wham!, “Last Christmas” (Columbia/Legacy): Don’t forget about the artist who briefly snuck in past the Queen of Christmas last year: Brenda Lee, whose “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” finally became a Hot 100 No. 1 for the first time, over 60 years after its original release. Lee’s back this year, and while the promo push isn’t as hard for “Rockin’” as it was in 2023, the song is absolutely still in contention for the top spot, as it leads “All I Want” on Daily Top Songs USA and is right behind it on the overall Hot 100 (at No. 15 this week).
The third-highest Christmas song on this week’s Hot 100 (No. 18) belongs not to traditional holiday bronze medalist Bobby Helms – whose 1957 perennial “Jingle Bell Rock” has ultimately slotted into the No. 3 spot each year since 2019 – but to Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” possibly something of a sentimental favorite this year due to the 1984 synth-pop classic celebrating its 40th anniversary. And like “All I Want,” it may have an extra boost coming to it in the near future: Four physical versions of the single will be on sale on Dec. 13, the week after the Carey physicals, which could finally get it to that No. 3 spot on the next week’s chart – or even higher.
