The Contenders

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Feb. 24), two of the year’s most-anticipated new releases vie for No. 1, while a third-party candidate originally from 2022 also gets into the mix. 

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Kanye West & Ty Dolla $ign, Vultures 1 (YZY): Kanye’s and Ty Dolla’s long-awaited and much-delayed – can just assume both of those descriptors with any Ye-related release at this point – collaborative new LP Vultures 1 is the former’s  first wide release on his new independent label YZY. The 16-track effort features appearances from big-name collaborators like Travis Scott, Playboi Carti and Chris Brown – though none are actually credited on the feature-less tracklist – as well as a guest vocal from Ye’s 10-year-old daughter North on “Talking.” (It also features an interpolation of Donna Summer’s disco classic “I Feel Love” on “Good (Don’t Die),” which the Summer estate has decried as unauthorized.)  

The album was originally supposed to debut on Friday, after a Chicago listening event, but ultimately trickled out (with a false start or two) on streaming services over Saturday. The incomplete first tracking week for the set – with only five full days of consumption – will likely dampen its opening numbers a little, as will its lack of physical availability, as the album is not yet available for purchase on CD or vinyl. (The set also has received muted support on many top Spotify playlists for an album of its buzz, likely due to past and ongoing Ye-related controversies.) 

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However, with high anticipation for the set (as Ye always seems to garner, regardless of his real-life backlash), it should still do fairly sizeable streaming numbers. As of Wednesday, it still claimed four songs in the top 10 on Spotify’s US Daily Top 200 and five in Apple Music’s real-time top 10, with its “Carnival” leading both listings. Given Kanye’s history on the Billboard 200 – which boasts 10 No. 1 albums, including controversy-embroiled more recent releases like 2019’s JESUS IS KING and 2021’s Donda – it would be foolish to bet against him finding similar success with Vultures.  

Usher, Coming Home (Mega/Gamma): Coming Home represents a number of firsts for Usher: His first album of the 2020s, his first through independent record label Mega (in partnership with the Larry Jackson-founded alternative distributor Gamma) and his first since being minted as a Super Bowl headliner. Technically, the set debuted two days before the Big Game, but the album will undoubtedly be boosted by the added exposure of the most-watched halftime performance in SB history – even though the pop&B superstar didn’t actually perform any songs from the new album, opting to stick to a set of more-established classics.  

Nonetheless, Coming Home does arrive with some built-in success: “Good Good,” the album’s lead single alongside next-gen ATLiens Summer Walker and 21 Savage, has previously reached No. 25 on the Billboard Hot 100, already his biggest hit on the chart in a decade. The set features additional collabs with hitmakers Latto, Burna Boy, H.E.R. and Jung Kook (on a previously released remix of the latter’s top 5 Hot 100 hit “Standing Next to You”). All of these should help streams of the set — and sales are also expected to be robust, with Coming Home available on CD, in five different vinyl variants, and through both CD and vinyl box sets that include branded merch. (Digital editions of the album have also been heavily discounted.)  

While Usher’s new album will likely be his best-performing LP this week, he should also see some major movement with his back catalog – most notably with his Billboard 200-topping 2004 juggernaut Confessions. The classic album, which celebrates its 20th anniversary this year, had a whopping seven tracks make its way to Usher’s halftime setlist, including the set-capping Lil Jon and Ludacris collab “Yeah!” and the much-buzzed-about Alicia Keys duet performance “My Boo.” It re-enters the top half of the 200 this week, jumping 140-92, and should make an even bigger leap next week.  

Noah Kahan, Stick Season (Mercury/Republic): The weather may be warming outside – slowly – but on the Billboard 200, Stick Season may simply never end. Alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan’s breakout album, which has only grown in popularity and impact in the 16 months since its October 2022 release, has spent the entirety of post-holidays 2024 in the Billboard 200’s top 10, climbing back as high as No. 4, after having peaked at No. 3 last June following the set’s We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe re-release.  

Stick Season slips to No. 7 this week, but it may very well return to the top three once more next week, following another, even deluxer reissue of the set. This one is titled Stick Season (Forever), and features a whopping 30 tracks, including previously released Hot 100-charting collaborative remixes of Stick originals with Post Malone (“Dial Drunk”), Kacey Musgraves (“She Calls Me Back”) and Hozier (“Northern Attitude”). In addition to all of those, the set also boasts two (well, one and a half) totally unreleased cuts: the solo ballad “Forever” and the Brandi Carlile-guesting redo of We’ll All Be Here Forever fan favorite “You’re Gonna Go Far.” (All versions of the album, new and old, are combined together for tracking and charting purposes, under its original title: Stick Season.)

The new edition of the now-blockbuster set has no physical release available, but has already spurred plenty of extra streaming activity for both the original album and its previously released “new” tracks – as well as for the brand-new “Forever,” which is still in the top 50 on both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily charts.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 17), while Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me” is again the front-runner to return to No. 1, the biggest winners and performers on Music’s Biggest Night also get perhaps the final big bump of their chart runs. 

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Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): Perhaps the most buzzed-about performance of Grammy night featured Luke Combs dueting with Tracy Chapman (for the first time) on “Fast Car,” the song the two performers both had top 10 hits with, 35 years apart. It was a major moment for both artists, a long-overdue comeback appearance for a traditionally spotlight-reticent Chapman, and a full-circle one for Combs, who has called “Fast Car” his “first favorite song.”  

Chapman’s version of “Fast Car” has seen the most pronounced gains since the duet aired, with her original zooming to No. 1 on the iTunes sales chart, and also reaching the top 100 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the first time. But Combs’ cover has also seen a pronounced bump, climbing back into the iTunes top five and rebounding to Spotify’s U.S. top 40. Combs’ “Car” has been slowing on the Hot 100, after reaching No. 2 last July and most recently ranking in the top 10 in January, but still parks at No. 20 on the chart this week; with his added Grammy propulsion, he very well may pop a U-turn and head back towards the top 10.  

Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (Smiley Miley/Columbia): Miley Cyrus’ new signature hit was truly in full bloom on Grammy night. Not only did it take home two awards on the telecast (best pop solo performance and record of the year, her first-ever Grammy wins), but it also received a spotlight performance, in what Cyrus referred to as just her second time publicly singing the song. Her rendition was understandably triumphant — somewhat literally so, as she finished her final “started to cry, but then remembered…” pre-chorus with the ad-lib “I just won my first Grammy!”  

The big Grammy moment has revived interest in the year-old song – which is still lingering in the Hot 100’s top 40, sliding from No. 27 to 32 this week – with it re-entering the top 40 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and the top five on the iTunes sales chart. With radio support for the song remaining steady (and recently record-breaking), if not quite as overwhelming as the song’s mid-2023 peak, it should stand a chance of jumping back into the Hot 100’s top 20 – and perhaps even higher if its newfound momentum keeps up throughout the week.  

Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?” (Darkroom/WaterTower/Atlantic/Interscope): Award season has always been Billie Eilish and Finneas’ friend, and perhaps none more so than 2024’s. “What Was I Made For?” just won song of the year at the Grammys – their second win in the category, following “Bad Guy” in 2020 – and also received a heartfelt performance from the duo during the ceremony. That may just be the warmup for next month’s Oscars, where the song (from Barbie) is the prohibitive favorite to win in best original song (which would again be a second W for the duo, following Bond theme “No Time to Die” in 2022).  

Will the momentum be enough to bump the song to the top 10? Unlike “Flowers” and “Fast Car,” which have already hit peaks of No. 1 and No. 2 on the Hot 100, respectively, “Made For” has yet to reach the chart’s top tier, having peaked at No. 14 last August amid Barbie buzz. The song is currently perched at No. 31, and is up in sales and streams since the Grammys – though not as much as the other two aforementioned Grammy gainers. If it’s going to make up serious ground, it’ll need help from radio – it’s the only one of the three songs mentioned that still has room and potential to grow on the airwaves; while it’s peaked at pop radio, it’s still rising on adult formats.

IN THE MIX 

Billy Joel, “Turn the Lights Back On” (Columbia): While Columbia is certainly victory-lapping this week with its Miley Cyrus and Luke Combs Grammy night successes, the label also has reason to celebrate with one of its greatest legacy artists: Billy Joel made his return to recording with the new song “Turn the Lights Back On,” his first single since 2007. The song isn’t likely to threaten the top tier of the Hot 100, but it’s been selling well enough since its Thursday debut, and drawing enough adult radio airplay, to at least challenge for a spot on the chart – which would be his first appearance as a recording artist since his Bob Dylan-penned “To Make You Feel My Love” hit No. 50 in 1997.  

Dua Lipa, “Houdini” (Warner): Grammy night’s opening performance came courtesy of returning pop star Dua Lipa, delivering her most recent single “Houdini” along with its yet-unreleased follow-up “Training Season.” Streaming gains for “Houdini,” which sits at No. 25 on the Hot 100 this week after debuting at its No. 11 high in November, have been modest following the performance — but it has seen a bigger spike in sales, which could help give it a boost back to the Hot 100’s top 20.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Feb. 10), the year’s biggest new rap beef may power the next No. 1 debut, if a conservative pundit doesn’t elbow his way into the race. 

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Megan Thee Stallion, “Hiss” (Hot Girl Productions) / Nicki Minaj, “Big Foot” (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic): Megan Thee Stallion set the rap and pop worlds ablaze on Friday with her incendiary “Hiss,” striking back against haters and foes who have plagued her drama-filled past few years. No specific names were mentioned, but certain bars were popularly interpreted to be directed at Nicki Minaj – who took the insult personally, firing back at her fellow MC over social media all weekend before dropping her own pointed response to Megan, “Big Foot.”  

With the battle between the two inevitably turning into a chart war, many will be looking to next week’s Hot 100 to ultimately crown a victor. It’s not a particularly fair fight, since “Hiss” has a three-day head start on “Big Foot,” having been released at the very start of the tracking week, rather than Sunday at midnight. Nonetheless, with both now out for multiple days, “Hiss” currently leads “Big Foot” by most real-time metrics – it’s atop both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily US streaming charts (“Foot” is right behind it on Apple but about 20 spots lower on Spotify) and claims both the No. 2 and No. 3 spots on the iTunes Top 100 with its multiple versions (“Foot” is No. 4, with both songs also now boasting multiple other variants throughout the top 25).  

Will it be enough to pass Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me” for the top spot on the Hot 100? It could be close: “Lovin” remains a strong performer in all chart factors, even still gaining in radio as it spends his second week atop the Radio Songs listing. But with “Hiss” given a jolt by all of the extra publicity over the weekend, it’s not only maintained its release momentum, it’s still been growing – and if it continues to do so over the final couple days of the tracking week, it could have a real shot at nabbing Megan both the first Hot 100 No. 1 debut as a lead artist and the first unaccompanied No. 1 of her career.  

Tom MacDonald feat. Ben Shapiro, “Facts” (Self-released): Yes, really: After right-wing pundit Ben Shapiro helped propel multiple songs to No. 1 this decade (including Megan’s own “WAP” back in 2020) with either his endorsement or his disavowal, he’s now in pursuit of a Hot 100-topper of his own. He even admits as much on “Facts,” his collab with “anti-woke” rapper Tom MacDonald, as he directs audiences during his own rap verse – again, yes, really — “All my people download this, let’s get a Billboard No. 1.”  

He’s likely to get a No. 1 on Billboard’s Digital Song Sales chart, anyway, as “Facts” has held the lead on iTunes essentially since its Jan. 26 release date, even amidst the Nicki/Megan beefing. The song’s streaming numbers are relatively small compared to “Hiss” and “Lovin on Me,” though, and it has no real radio support, so to even challenge for No. 1 it will still have to post a pretty stratospheric sales number in its debut week. Shapiro’s certainly banking on getting bragging rights over one of the week’s primary contenders, at least: “Nicki, take some notes, I just did this for fun,” he also taunts in his verse.  

Justin Timberlake, “Selfish” (RCA): In a less wild week, Justin Timberlake’s comeback single would likely be the most buzzed-about debut – though with Timberlake’s commercial fortunes declining fairly steadily over the past decade, “Selfish” was probably always something of a long shot for a No. 1 entrance.  

The love song, whose bow will also be hurt by its release coming last Thursday (meaning its first day of consumption totals will count towards the previous chart week), has nonetheless sold consistently and streamed somewhat steadily. It also has been embraced immediately on pop radio, with the song debuting at No. 33 on Pop Airplay this week after just a single day’s airplay. It might not be in the hunt for No. 1, but it could challenge the No. 25 debut of *NSYNC’s “Better Place” last year for the highest-charting JT-related song on the Hot 100 this decade.  

IN THE MIX 

Morgan Wallen, “Spin You Around (1/24)” (Honeyhole/Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): With Taylor Swift recently raising the commercial ceiling on re-recordings of decade-old songs, it’s hardly shocking to see Morgan Wallen’s acoustic re-do of this early-career ballad – successfully intended to overshadow his old label’s unsanctioned deluxe reissue of early-career debut EP Stand Alone – be received commercially like a brand new single. “Spin You Around (1/24)” may not have the longevity of Wallen’s One Thing at a Time hits, but the combination of curiosity streams and sales for a song many newer fans might not even be familiar with should get it a notable Hot 100 debut.  

Ice Spice, “Think U the Shit (Fart)” (Dolo Entertainment/10K/Capitol): Something of a “yes, really” in its own right, Ice Spice’s purposefully goofy latest single has divided the internet into those who find it to be frivolous, winking fun and those who think it’s just too silly for serious listening. The song might not be too long for the charts – the rapper just announced her imminent debut album, so she may be moving on fairly quickly herself – but initial interest in “Shit (Fart)” should be enough for a good Hot 100 debut, perhaps good enough to become her first unaccompanied top 40 hit.

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 27), Green Day look to score the second new No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in 2024 with the debut of their 14th LP, Saviors.  

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Green Day, Saviors (Reprise): Green Day’s 15-track latest set was released on Friday (Jan. 19) with hype billing it as their big attempt at a 2024 return-to-form – even featuring production by Rob Cavallo, knob-twiddler behind most of the band’s classic ‘90s and ‘00s LPs. The set has drawn mostly positive reviews, and kicks off what should be a very eventful year for the Rock and Roll Hall of Famers, as they’re celebrating the respective 20th and 30th anniversaries of their epochal albums Dookie and American Idiot on their much-anticipated upcoming stadium tour (alongside fellow ‘90s alt hitmakers Smashing Pumpkins and Rancid), performing each album in its entirety.  

The album is expected to sell in strong numbers, helped by the large number of variants in which the LP is currently available. Along with the digital album    and standard CD, there’s also a signed CD sold through the band’s webstore, one cassette and at least 16 vinyl variants (mostly varying in color), including exclusives for Amazon, Barnes & Noble, indie record stores, Target, Walmart and more. There’s also two boxed sets for purchase, each with a branded T-shirt and a CD inside, as well as a Fan Pack offer with a T-shirt and a CD. 

If Saviors can reach No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – and it will be a challenge, given that Green Day has never performed particularly well in streaming – it would mark their third consecutive decade with a No. 1 album. They most recently topped the chart with Revolution Radio in 2016, and previously did it with both Idiot and its 2009 follow-up, 21st Century Breakdown. (Surprisingly, they never bested the chart in the ‘90s, with both Dookie and its 1995 follow-up Insomniac topping out at No. 2.)  

21 Savage, American Dream (Slaughter Gang/Epic): Green Day’s primary obstacle in the way of their fourth No. 1 album is the current reigning champ. This week, American Dream became the first new album to top the chart in 2024, moving an impressive 133,000 units – mostly in streaming – while also launching the biggest unaccompanied Billboard Hot 100 solo hit of 21 Savage’s career in the quickly viral, No. 5-debuting “Redrum.” The numbers were impressive enough to further confirm Savage’s superstar status, without some of the usual qualifications that have dogged his legacy in the past.  

The numbers for American Dream will likely dip considerably in its second week, but the album should still have a strong shot at staying atop the chart for a second week this frame, with its streaming performance remaining steady – the set continues to hold down seven of the top 20 spots on Apple Music’s real-time chart, including pole position for “Redrum.” If the race is particularly close, it also wouldn’t be shocking to see Savage’s team pull out a last-minute deluxe edition with a few new songs to boost the final streaming numbers, as has become increasingly common practice for big rap and pop albums in the past few years. 

IN THE MIX 

Eladio Carrión, Sol María (Rimas): The biggest release for the week in the Latin music world comes from Puerto Rican-American rapper Eladio Carrión. His 17-track new album Sol María features guest appearances from big names like Yandel, Rauw Alejandro, Arcángel and Sech, and is led by the Latin airplay hit “TQMQA.” The set follows 2023’s 3MEN2 KBRN, which became his first LP to hit the top 20 of the Billboard 200, debuting at No. 16 in April.  

Lil Dicky, Penith (The DAVE Soundtrack): With rapper-comedian-actor Lil Dicky’s acclaimed (and very loosely autobiographical) TV sitcom Dave having wrapped its third season last Spring, its star decided it was time for the show to release an official soundtrack. That finally arrived last Friday with Penith, a 22-track collection of music included throughout the series – some in fuller versions than featured on the show. Star producer Benny Blanco, a recurring guest star on the show, worked on most of the tracks, but West Coast rap fixture YG is the only big-name guest, appearing on “YG’s Interlude.”  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 27), Ariana Grande looks to score her eighth No. 1, while new songs from rap stars 21 Savage and Lil Nas X also make their initial impacts.  

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Ariana Grande, “Yes, And?” (Republic): Ariana Grande has been one of the most reliable hitmakers in pop music for over 10 years now, and though she’s only released one album so far this decade (2020’s Positions), she’s already scored a stunning five Hot 100 No. 1s since ‘20: two alongside The Weeknd (“Save Your Tears” and “Die for You”), one with Lady Gaga (“Rain on Me”), one with Justin Bieber (“Stuck With U”) and one totally solo (“Positions”). Next week, she hopes to add a sixth No. 1 to that 2020s tally, and her second one unaccompanied, with the arrival last Friday (Jan. 17) of new single “Yes, And?”  

The house-influenced song, released as the lead single from her upcoming Eternal Sunshine album, was easily the most-anticipated drop of the new year thus far, and came with a new dramatically staged and intricately choreographed music video, as well as instant radio support. But the streams for it, while considerable – it still rests at No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart, though it’s fallen significantly lower on other daily DSP charts – are not so overwhelming that it is likely to blow past Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me,” which spends its third frame atop the Hot 100 this week. 

To help get the new song over the top, Grande and her team have also released edited, extended, sped-up, slowed-down, a cappella and instrumental mixes of “Yes, And?” — all of which, as of writing, are currently populating the top 10 of iTunes’ real-time sales chart. The extra sales boost might be enough to make up the difference, but it will likely be something of a photo finish between it and “Lovin,” making for our first real chart suspense atop the Hot 100 of 2024.  

Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me” (Genaration Now/Atlantic): For its part, Harlow’s crossover banger has hardly been letting up as the new year has unfolded. “Lovin” remains atop the Streaming Songs chart this week, while dropping just one spot to No. 2 on Digital Song Sales, and jumping 5-2 on Radio Songs. As long as its radio growth continues to offset its inevitable slippage in streams and sales, “Lovin” should remain a No. 1 contender for the near future – and it’s worth noting that Harlow has yet to even release an official remix or deliver a late night or awards show performance of the song, meaning he has still has cards to play if he ever wants to give the song’s momentum another adrenaline shot.  

21 Savage, “redrum” (Slaughter Gang/Epic): While the Billboard 200 albums chart has seen even less impact from new releases so far this year than the Hot 100, this week it should get a few big debuts, led by star rapper 21 Savage’s new set American Dream. The semi-surprise release, announced just a week ago after a “movie trailer” that may have just been a particularly cinematic (and star-studded) music video for proper album opener “All of Me,” is likely to contend for the No. 1 spot on that chart — with all 15 tracks from the album (Savage’s first unaccompanied solo LP since 2018’s I Am > I Was) littering the daily charts of streaming services all week.  

One song has proven to be the early runaway hit from the set: “Redrum,” a tough-talking, The Shining-referencing early-album highlight. The song, which even ends with a clip of Jack Nicholson doing his famous “Here’s Johnny!” speech from the aforementioned Stanley Kubrick horror classic, also got its own music video, set in the U.K. — where Savage was born, and was at risk of being deported back to at the turn of the decade. The natural buzziness of the song and video (as well as its intoxicatingly threatening chorus) has led to it being American Dream’s best performer on streaming – topping the Apple Music charts for most of the week, and finishing just behind Grande and Harlow on Spotify – and could result in a top 10 Hot 100 debut, which would be the rapper’s first appearance in the chart’s top tier on an unaccompanied solo track.  

IN THE MIX 

Kali Uchis feat. Peso Pluma, “Igual Que Un Ángel” (Geffen): Uchis’ fourth full-length album (and her second predominantly in Spanish) Orquídeas has already netted some of the early year’s strongest reviews, and is also likely to earn her second straight top five placement on the Billboard 200, after last year’s No. 4-debuting Red Moon in Venus. The set also has an obvious breakout single in the Peso Pluma collab “Iqual Que Un Ángel” — with a roller-rink disco groove that gets the música Mexicana superstar on the dancefloor for arguably the first time – which has gotten off to a strong start on streaming, and may get Uchis back to the Hot 100’s top 40 for the first time since 20201’s “Telepatía.”  

Lil Nas X, “J Christ” (Columbia): Much teased and much hyped by LNX himself, “J Christ” was looking like the most headline news-making debut of the week before Ariana Grande and 21 Savage announced their own new releases. Despite similar backlash to the song’s (and its accompanying video’s) religious themes to 2021’s Hot 100-topping “Montero (Call Me by Your Name),” it seems unlikely that “J Christ” will make as big an initial splash, as the song does not currently rank in the top 100 on either the Spotify or Apple Music daily charts – though it has gotten off to a solid start in sales and radio, and its video is still near the top of the Trending chart on YouTube.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 20), there may not be a ton of suspense towards the top of the Hot 100 — with Jack Harlow, Taylor Swift and Tate McRae likely to be holding strong in the top three — but other rising songs are threatening to break into the top 10 for the first time.

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Teddy Swims, “Lose Control” (SWIMS Int./Warner): One of the surprise slow-burn successes of late 2023, the big-voiced Teddy Swims‘ soulful crossover hit “Lose Control” continues to climb into the new year. “Control” spikes 48-12 on the Hot 100 this week — helped by streaming growth, as the song re-enters Streaming Songs at a new No. 10 peak this week, and also by impressive sales, with it rising to No. 2 on the Digital Song Sales chart. (Plus, the track has already hit the top 25 on Radio Songs.) A top 10 Hot 100 placement seems in reach for Swims in the next week or two as folks continue to discover the song for the first time — it’s also currently No. 2 on Shazam’s U.S. top 200 chart.

Nicki Minaj, “FTCU” (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic): Minaj‘s Pink Friday 2 breakout hit jumped from 53-17 on last week’s Hot 100 (dated Jan. 13) after the yearly deluge of holiday songs finally abated, and remains one of the early year’s strongest performers on streaming, holding in the top 10 of both Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily U.S. listings. The big question for it will be radio: While top 40 seems to have jumped on the Lil Uzi Vert-featuring “Everybody” when that song initially had the most momentum from the PF2 tracklist — it debuts at No. 38 on Pop Airplay this week — “FTCU” has been slower to find its footing there, which it may ultimately need to do to make its mark on the top 10.

Noah Kahan, “Stick Season” (Mercury/Republic): Speaking of songs debuting on Pop Airplay this week: Alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan makes his second bow on the chart, following last year’s “Dial Drunk” with Post Malone, with his somehow-still-rising breakout hit “Stick Season.” The 18-month-old title track to his unstoppable 2022 album, “Season” continues to grow on streaming while now also impacting radio, entering at No. 37 on Pop Airplay and rising 54-19 on the Hot 100, passing “Drunk” (at No. 48 this week, after reaching No. 25 last summer) for his biggest hit as a lead artist now on the latter chart. If the momentum continues, Kahan’s first-ever Hot 100 top 10 berth could only be a couple weeks away.

IN THE MIX

Drake feat. Sexyy Red & SZA, “Rich Baby Daddy” (OVO Sound/Republic): While “First Person Shooter” with J. Cole and “IDGAF” with Yeat were the two most immediate hits from Drake‘s Billboard 200-topping For All the Dogs late last year, it appears that the most enduring single from the set will be the Sexyy Red- and SZA-featuring “Rich Baby Daddy.” The album’s most obviously hooky and upbeat highlight, “Daddy” returns to the Hot 100’s top 20 this week (52-16) after previously debuting at No. 11, and continues to regain ground on streaming — but is slipping a little on radio (21-29 on Radio Songs), where it may need to recapture its momentum to really make a push for the top 10.

Billie Eilish, “What Was I Made For?” (Darkroom/WaterTower/Interscope/Atlantic): Eilish‘s devastating piano ballad peaked at No. 14 at the height of Barbie-mania, and hung around the Hot 100 throughout most of the holiday season, before finally falling off the chart last week. It’s back at No. 20 this week, while holding as a solid performer on streaming and radio, and now it has a new source of adrenaline: awards season. The song just picked up best original song at the Golden Globes, and is up for five Grammys in February, with an Oscar nomination and possible win the following month also seeming practically inevitable.

Chris Stapleton, “White Horse” (Sound/Mercury Nashville): Not many might’ve expected Stapleton‘s searing Higher lead single to hang around as a major chart contender through the new year, but “White Horse” has remained impressively resilient, sticking on the Hot 100 through the holidays and jumping from 56-18 on this week’s listing. As the song re-enters Streaming Songs at No. 23, radio may again be the ticket for a top 10 entry: “Horse” is just outside the top five on the Country Airplay chart this week, as the fiery song perhaps remains a slightly awkward fit on the genre’s traditionally genial airwaves.

Xavi, “La Diabla” (Interscope): You have to dig a little deeper in the chart this week to find Mexican-American breakout star Xavi — he’s at No. 34 with “La Diabla,” and also No. 56 with “La Victima” — but chances feel pretty good that he’ll be a force to be reckoned with higher on the Hot 100 in the months to come. With all sorts of early-year buzz and eye-popping forward momentum on streaming, it’s pretty hard not to compare the Arizona-born, Interscope-signed 19-year-old with another música Mexicana breakout star who started to burst around this time last year.

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated Jan. 13), the holiday rush is over on the charts, and now we see what rises back to the top when all those festive classics finally fall away.  

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Jack Harlow, “Lovin on Me” (Generation Now/Atlantic): It almost feels like a chart nerd trivia question at this point: What song was No. 1 on the Hot 100 before Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” and Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” spent five weeks trading off at the top spot? The answer: Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me,” which reached pole position in its second chart week after its quickly viral debut, becoming his third No. 1 in as many years on the listing.  

Over a month later, the song is still going strong: It’s the only non-Christmas entry in this week’s top 10, holding on at No. 9, and has climbed to No. 5 on Radio Songs, while also reclaiming its throne atop the daily rankings for Spotify and Apple Music. In other words, there’s every indication that with the holiday songs disappearing on the Hot 100 – as they customarily do the first full chart week post-Christmas — “Lovin on Me” will not only be a leading candidate to recapture the top spot, but that it might be around for a long time still to come.

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): What, you thought that with the calendar turning to 2024, you might actually have a little less Taylor in your life? Not on this chart, anyway. Swift still maintained a trio of songs on the Hot 100 throughout the holiday season – led, of course by the blazing “Cruel Summer,” which topped the ranking for four weeks in October and November and remains the second-highest-ranking non-holiday song this week (No. 19), behind “Lovin.”  

And it’s still not cooling down. “Summer,” revived from 2019’s Lover, tops Radio Songs for a 10th frame this week – the longest leader of Swift’s career – while returning to the top five on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. If even the coldest time of the year can’t tamp down this song’s incandescence, it just might end up sticking around through next summer, as well.  

Tate McRae, “Greedy” (RCA): One song that was still growing as it ended up getting swallowed by the holiday rush was Tate McRae’s breakout smash “Greedy.” The pop favorite, which spends a fourth week at No. 1 on Pop Airplay this week, had broken into the Hot 100’s top 10, reaching as high as No. 7 – but would have gotten even higher had it not had to compete with the seasonal likes of Brenda and Mariah — particularly in the release week (Dec. 8) of parent album Think Later, when “Greedy” ranked behind just “Lovin” among all non-holiday songs.  

The song should still be a contender in the post-holiday season, though: It remains a strong performer on both streaming and radio, and currently rates as the third-highest non-Christmas song on the Hot 100 (No. 24). That means it’s likely to hit a new peak on the chart this week as the holiday songs get put away for the new year – and beyond that, if it can get an extra boost from a new remix or performance or something else to help it regain momentum, it wouldn’t be too greedy for McRae to set her sights on the top spot.  

IN THE MIX 

Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything” (Belting Bronco/Warner): This one feels like it came out a lifetime ago at this point, but it was only the Hot 100 dated Sept. 9 when Bryan’s and Musgraves’ duet bowed atop the chart. Four months later, the song has scarcely slowed on streaming – it’s currently in the top five on both Spotify’s and Apple Music’s daily charts – and still holds at No. 31 on the Hot 100, higher than all but four pre-holiday entries. The airwaves remain the final frontier for “Everything,” as it’s gaining slowly and surely, but remains well below the 50-song cutoff to make the Radio Songs chart.  

Tyla, “Water” (Fax/Epic): “Water” was another pop hit still gaining as the holiday takeover began, just touching the top 10 (at No. 10) before the waves of Christmas songs swept it back to shore. This week, Tyla‘s hit rests just below “Everything” at No. 32 on the Hot 100, with room still to grow on radio – as it rules the Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay chart for a sixth week — though how much the South African singer-songwriter wants to continue pushing the crossover smash rather than moving on to other material (like newer single “Truth or Dare”) remains to be seen.  

Nicki Minaj, “FTCU” (Young Money/Cash Money/Republic): While the Junior Senior-sampling “Everybody” held the early lead as the breakout single from rap queen Nicki Minaj’s Billboard 200-topping Pink Friday 2 album, it appears that it will soon be lapped by LP-mate “FTCU.” The Waka Flocka Flame-lifting jam has long passed “Everybody” on both the Spotify and Apple Music daily charts (landing in the top 10 on both) and it also appears two spots higher on this week’s Hot 100 (No. 53 vs. No. 55), as a major radio embrace may be the only thing standing in the way of it becoming Minaj’s biggest unaccompanied solo hit since 2022’s “Super Freaky Girl.”  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 23), only two new albums seem set to make a major impact near the top of the charts: Nicki Minaj’s latest installment from her Pink Friday series, and the sophomore album from rising pop fixture Tate McRae. 

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Nicki Minaj, Pink Friday 2 (Young Money/Republic): It’s been five years since the public last got a new studio album from veteran superstar Nicki Minaj, but after an endless stream of rumors and seeming false starts, the album fans had been waiting for finally arrived on Friday (Dec. 8): Pink Friday 2, the official sequel to her beloved 2010 debut album. The 22-track set features appearances from fellow A-listers Drake, Lil Wayne, J. Cole, Future and Lil Uzi Vert – the latter on the Junior Senior-sampling “Everyday,” which is off to an early lead as the set’s breakout hit – and also includes such previously released stand-alone singles as “Last Time I Saw You,” “Red Ruby da Sleaze” and the Billboard Hot 100-topping smash “Super Freaky Girl.”  

The album is also available in a variety of physical variants, with four vinyl editions — including three retailer-exclusive versions, all with different covers and color vinyl – as well as two CDs, one standard and one signed (being sold through her webstore). Though the digital and streaming versions of Pink Friday 2 have 22 tracks, the physical releases only feature 10, with some fans theorizing that the remainder were perhaps not fully finished in time to make deadlines for pressing and release. A digital deluxe edition of the album was also released through her webstore on Monday, on sale for $5 and featuring a bonus 50 Cent-assisted remix of the album’s “Beep Beep.” Another digital deluxe edition dropped exclusively through her webstore on Dec. 13, also for $5, this time including the new bonus cut “Love Me Enough,” featuring R&B hitmakers Keyshia Cole and Monica. (Minaj previously teased that she would release one new Pink Friday 2 bonus track a day from Monday to Thursday this week.)

With the album off to a good start at streaming services (especially Apple Music, where it still holds five of the top 10 spots on the real-time charts five days after release) and strong physical sales expected, Pink Friday 2 should have a good chance at contending for the Billboard 200’s top spot next week. That would certainly be good news for Minaj, who’s had to settle for the runner-up spot with her last two sets (2014’s The Pinkprint and 2018’s Queen) after being held off by blockbusters from Taylor Swift and Travis Scott, respectively. But history is on her side here: Both of Minaj’s No. 1 albums have come with Pink Friday series releases, with the original topping the Billboard 200 in early 2011 and its Pink Friday: Roman Reloaded follow-up hitting the top spot in April 2012.  

Tate McRae, Think Later (RCA): One of the breakout stories of late 2023 has been rising pop hitmaker and onetime competitive dancer Tate McRae. While McRae found success earlier this decade with the moody singles “You Broke Me First” and “She’s All I Wanna Be,” she hit the top 10 for the first time this fall with the crossover smash “Greedy,” which (along with its hockey rink-set music video) refashioned her as more of a classic triple-threat pop star. The increased attention led to new opportunities for McRae, including her first Saturday Night Live performance and first Billboard cover story in late November.   

Now, she hopes to capitalize on the forward momentum with the release of her sophomore album Think Later. The 14-track set features both “Greedy” and follow-up hit “Exes” (which debuted at No. 34 on the Hot 100 earlier this month), as well as “Grave,” which she played as one of her two songs on SNL, and many other songs co-helmed by writer/producer Ryan Tedder, one of the primary architects behind those two singles.  

The album should stream well, especially with the help of those two pre-established hits, and seems likely to pass the No. 13 bow of her 2022 debut LP I Used to Think I Could Fly and contend for a top 10 spot on next week’s Billboard 200. One thing that may hold it back a little: The set is currently only available in digital and signed CD editions, with other variants being pre-sold on her webstore – including a CD box set and a white opaque vinyl edition – not set to ship until next February.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 dated Dec. 2), a South Korean group hopes to get the early holiday gift of its first No. 1 album, with the debut of its fourth studio LP.  

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ATEEZ, The World Ep.Fin : Will (KQ/RCA/Hello82): Eight-piece South Korean boy band ATEEZ has been swelling in stateside popularity since its 2019 debut. Though it has yet to find major airplay or streaming success in the U.S., the group has scored three top 10 albums on the Billboard 200 — most recently reaching No. 2 on the chart with July’s The World EP.2 Outlaw, held off only by Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time blockbuster in the midst of its non-continuous 16-week run atop the chart.  

Next week, the group may get its chance at the top spot. Ep.Fin is available for purchase in a whopping 33 different physical editions — 26 CD packages and seven vinyl packages – all with collectible branded merchandise inside. Among the 33 iterations are exclusive CDs and vinyls for Barnes & Noble, Target and Walmart, — all with retail-exclusive randomized photo cards inside. – Of the seven vinyl LPs, six are color vinyls (four “bone” colored, one magenta and one light blue, while one is a picture disc).  

The group will again face stiff competition from a strong reigning champion: Taylor Swift, whose 1989 (Taylor’s Version) has spent three of the last five weeks atop the Billboard 200, and which is still posting weekly unit totals well into the six digits. Still, the time is now for ATEEZ. With a long-anticipated Nicki Minaj album due this Friday (Dec. 8) and the holiday season kicking into full swing shortly after, this upcoming chart week is likely its best remaining chance of finishing the year with a No. 1 album.  

Michael Bublé, Christmas (143/Reprise/Warner): Bublé’s holiday perennial always starts to make noise on the charts around this time of year — and indeed, on the current week’s Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 9), the album pokes its head into the top 10 for the first time, jumping 24-9. Bublé leads the Christmas rush of albums expected to storm the chart in the weeks to come – but unlike on the Billboard Hot 100, where Mariah Carey (and now Brenda Lee) have ruled each year since 2019, a holiday album has not actually reached the No. 1 spot on the Billboard 200 since Pentatonix’s A Pentatonix Christmas reigned for two weeks in January 2017.

Speaking of Pentatonix, along with some of the usual returning suspects – Mariah Carey’s Merry Christmas, Nat King Cole’s The Christmas Song, Vince Guaraldi Trio’s A Charlie Brown Christmas – there’s also a new collection from the a cappella group, The Greatest Christmas Hits, which may challenge its usual holiday contender, The Best Pentatonix Christmas. (The former rates at No. 23 on this week’s chart.) There’s also Cher’s new Christmas album, up 66-46 this week, which should benefit from perhaps the closest thing this holiday season has to a new breakout hit: “DJ Play a Christmas Love Song,” which has performed well on streaming, while also topping both radio and sales charts.  

Peter Gabriel, I/O (Real World): Peter Gabriel’s days as a major pop hitmaker are now about 30 years in the rearview, but the Rock and Roll Hall of Famer (both solo and as part of Genesis) still commands attention with his new album releases – and I/O is his first since 2011’s New Blood. The album is available in 2CD, digital download and 2CD/blu-ray editions, as well as separate vinyl LP offerings of its “bright-side” and “dark-side” mixes. Gabriel also employed the unusual strategy of releasing a new song from the album every full moon in the 11 months leading up to its release – ultimately releasing all 12 tracks in advance.