The Contenders

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Nov. 11), Taylor Swift’s latest Taylor’s Version is already her biggest-debuting yet – but will it pass the original album’s bow was nine years earlier? 
Taylor Swift, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): This was the one fans had perhaps most been waiting for: Taylor Swift’s re-recording of her 2014 blockbuster 1989, the album that confirmed her as a full-on, no-qualifiers-needed pop superstar, and the set many most associate with her today. Even in a pop culture autumn already totally jam-packed with Swift – including a No. 1 movie at the box office (with her concert film Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour) and a No. 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 (with her revived Lover deep cut “Cruel Summer” — 1989 (Taylor’s Version)‘s Oct. 28 debut was always going to make a seismic chart impact.  

The album – which features new recordings of the 13 tracks originally on 1989, as well as of three bonus tracks from the album’s deluxe editions, and five songs from that period seeing release for the first time – unsurprisingly dominated streaming services upon its release. Spotify announced that Swift had set the record not only for the best single-day performance for an album on the DSP, but for any single artist – breaking her own record, natch, previously set with the release day of last October’s Midnights. On the most recent Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart (for Nov. 1), Swift still all of the top five spots, led by the Taylor’s Versions of new-old songs “Is It Over Now” and “Now That We Don’t Talk.” 

Sales for the set have of course been massive. Billboard reported on Wednesday that in its first five days of release, the set had already posted a million in sales – making it her sixth album to pass the seven-digit mark in its first week. The album is available in 15 different physical variants, including five different-colored vinyl options (with a Target Exclusive version that also includes a bonus track re-recording of soundtrack song “Sweeter Than Fiction”), eight CD options (several with folded posters included), a multi-colored cassette, and a digital edition with a bonus track new version of 1989 single “Bad Blood,” featuring a re-recorded guest verse by rap superstar Kendrick Lamar.  

1989 is already easily the best-performing Taylor’s Version for its debut week – sailing past the previous first-week high in units set by her re-recorded Speak Now (716,000) earlier this year. Will it also pass the first-week number set by the original 1989 back in 2014? That album also breezed by the million mark in its first week, ultimately posting 1.287 million in first-week sales. The new 1989 should certainly at least be in range of that, with the set already over a million in sales alone through the first five days of the tracking week, with two days’ worth of consumption still left to be accounted for.  

If it can pass the original 1989, then Swift will have just one more of her own albums to pass for her best first-week performance ever: Midnights, which debuted with a staggering 1.578 million total units moved in November 2022 — of which 1.14 million were in straight sales. 

IN THE MIX

SEVENTEEN, SEVENTEENTH HEAVEN (Pledis): Everyone is likely just competing for second on the Billboard 200 this week behind Taylor Swift, but South Korean boy band SEVENTEEN – who reached No. 2 on the chart in April with their FML EP — should have one of the week’s best-sellers with new EP SEVENTEENTH HEAVEN. As is common with major K-pop releases, the set’s sales will be bolstered by 16 collectible CD editions of the album, including exclusive versions sold via Barnes & Noble, Target and Walmart, all with branded merchandise items inside (like stickers and photo cards). 

Brent Faiyaz, Larger Than Life (ISO Supremacy/UnitedMasters): If fortune favors the bold, hopefully R&B star Brent Faiyaz will be rewarded for surprise-releasing his new Larger Than Life set in the shadow cast by a Taylor Swift release week. The 14-track effort is currently only available in physical form as a pre-order for Nov. 20, but should perform fairly well on streaming – with guest appearances by Missy Elliott, Coco Jones, A$AP Rocky and other big names – and benefit from the momentum of 2022’s well-received Wasteland, which debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 last July.  

Various Artists, The Nightmare Before Christmas: Original Motion Picture Soundtrack (Disney) / Michael Jackson, Thriller (Epic): ‘Tis the season, and with Halloween officially passing on Tuesday, you can bet a number of holiday favorites will see big gains on the charts. Those will most likely be led by the Danny Elfman-composed soundtrack to the Tim Burton-produced perennial favorite The Nightmare Before Christmas (celebrating its 30th anniversary this year) and Michael Jackson’s Thriller, one of the most decorated albums in the chart’s history. If enough folks get in the holiday spirit this year, then Nightmare — which has spent 24 weeks on the Billboard 200 and sits at No. 54 on this week’s chart (dated Nov. 4) — may have a shot of passing its prior No. 22 peak, set around this time last year.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Nov. 4), new albums by rock greats Blink-182 and The Rolling Stones vie for the Billboard 200’s top spot, along with the last two albums to have topped the chart. 

Blink-182, One More Time… (Columbia): The latest album from pop-punk paragons Blink-182 is the 10th of the band’s career — counting 1994’s independently released Buddha, andfollowing 2019’s appropriately titled Nine. But it’s also the first since 2011’s California to feature guitarist and vocalist Tom DeLonge, who reconnected with the trio’s other two members after co-leader Mark Hoppus was diagnosed with cancer in 2021, undergoing successful treatment and recovery.  

Riding the excitement of the reunion of the group’s classic lineup, One More Time has already spawned a pair of Billboard Hot 100 hits in “Edging” and the title track, reaching Nos. 61 and 62 respectively – the group’s highest Hot 100 entries since 2004’s “I Miss You” (No. 42). The album is expected to sell well — helped by 11 different vinyl variants, standard CD and cassette editions, and a deluxe box set with a branded shirt and CD contained inside – and should get extra exposure from a recently announced 2024 U.S. tour, taking them to arenas and stadiums throughout next summer. (The trio also released a new digital edition of the album on their webstore on Wednesday, featuring two new bonus tracks.) 

The Rolling Stones, Hackney Diamonds (Geffen/Polydor): Though they’ve remained a consistent top-drawing live act and released the blues covers set Blue & Lonesome in 2016, this month’s Hackney Diamonds is the first album of originals from Rock and Roll Hall of Famers The Rolling Stones since 2005’s A Bigger Bang. Produced by contemporary pop-rock hitmaker Andrew Watt, who’s previously worked with rock legends Elton John and Ozzy Osbourne, Diamonds has been hailed by critics and fans as one of the group’s best later-period works. (John also plays on two of Diamonds‘ 12 tracks, with other huge-name guests on the album including Lady Gaga, Stevie Wonder and Sir Paul McCartney.)

Will it be enough to score the band their 10th No. 1 album on the Billboard 200? The Stones will certainly be giving fans plenty of options for purchase, with a whopping 30+ vinyl variants, as well as two deluxe box sets (with either a branded shirt or a hat, plus a CD), a digipack CD and a CD/Blu-ray box set. The band is fighting against their recent history a little, however, as they haven’t topped the chart since the classic Tattoo You in 1981. (Blink’s most recent No. 1 came in 2016 with California.) If the album hits the Billboard 200’s top 10, it will extend the band’s already-record-setting number of top 10 entries on the chart to 38.

Drake, For All the Dogs (OVO/Republic) & Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana (Rimas): The previous two No. 1s on the Billboard 200 (for the charts dated Oct. 21 & 28, respectively) are still putting up big streaming numbers on a daily basis, currently responsible for a combined 14 of the top 20 spots on the realtime Apple Music chart. Despite being the older release, Drake‘s For All the Dogs probably has the advantage between the two sets, with both a stronger across-the-board showing for its 24 tracks and the current No. 1 song on both the Apple Music chart and the Spotify U.S. Daily Top Songs listing, with the Yeat-featuring “IDGAF.” Dogs earned 164,000 equivalent album units in its second week, so it’s likely that Blink or the Stones will have to post a first-week number comfortably in the six digits to pass it in its third frame.  

IN THE MIX 

Tyler, the Creator, Wolf (Odd Future): The beloved rapper’s second album, 2013’s Wolf, received a 10th anniversary vinyl reissue pressing earlier this month. Given Tyler’s strong presence in the vinyl market – which helped return his Call Me If You Get Lost to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in April 2022, nine months after its initial debut, following its belated vinyl release – it should result in Wolf making a strong return to next week’s chart. The album initially debuted and peaked at No. 3 in April 2013.  

Fuerza Regida, Pa Las Baby’s Y Belikeada (Sony Music Latin/Street Mob/Rancho Humilde): One of the biggest names from the recent boom in regional Mexican music just released one of its biggest albums: Fuerza Regida’s new Pa Las Baby’s set is a whopping 30 tracks, featuring guest appearances from fellow música Mexicana hitmakers Chino Pacas, Gabito Ballesteros and Manuel Torizo, as well as American EDM star producer Marshmello. The set’s chart performance will come almost entirely through its streaming numbers, as the album does not yet have a physical release.  

Cher, Cher Christmas (Warner): Cher’s first-ever Christmas album includes covers of holiday standards like “Santa Baby” and “Christmas (Baby Please Come Home),” as well as the set-leading original “DJ Play a Christmas Song,” and guest appearances from fellow stars Michael Bublé, Cyndi Lauper, Stevie Wonder and (of course) Tyga. The album is currently available through four CD variants (each with different covers), though its vinyl issue isn’t expected until later this year. If the album reaches the top 40 – possible for either next week or following its vinyl release – it would give the pop icon a seventh straight decade of charting at least one solo album in the Billboard 200’s top 40, dating back to the 1960s.   

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 28), Taylor Swift could finally be in line to top the Billboard Hot 100 with her revived “Summer” hit, but may end up neck-and-neck with hits from several other big-name artists, including an old labelmate and chart competitor.  

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Have you gotten your ticket for the Eras Tour movie? Plenty of Swifties already have, since the film debuted last weekend (Oct. 13-15) to a $92.8 million opening – already making it fairly easily the biggest concert doc ever after just a few days of release. And although Taylor Swift‘s fans hardly need another reason to consume her catalog in greater numbers, wouldn’t you know it: She has seen a bump in streams and sales since the film’s release, including for her current top song, the resuscitated Lover highlight “Cruel Summer.”  

It’s not an enormous streaming bump for “Cruel Summer” (likely not even a double-digit percentage gain week over week), but the song has spiked in sales. “Summer” even returns to the top of the real-time iTunes sales chart this week, as fans are newly inspired by the song’s prominent placement in Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour — or perhaps just sense an opening on the Hot 100 for the longtime fan favorite, originally released in 2019, while it’s a relatively slow week and Swift has an additional boost in momentum. (Also helping: Swift discounting the single to $0.69 on iTunes for the last couple days of the tracking week.)  

Will it all be enough to raise the song — which has thus far peaked at No. 3 amid proper single promotion that began in June, and falls to No. 9 this week (on the chart dated Oct. 21) under an avalanche of Drake For All the Dogs debuts – all the way to No. 1? It’s certainly possible, with Drake’s songs naturally receding in their second week, and nothing else in the top 10 poised to make obvious gains. Radio could be key: “Cruel Summer” fell out of the No. 1 spot on Billboard’s Radio Songs listing two weeks ago but has been holding strong at No. 2 since; if it can keep from further slippage there, it may have just enough in an all three Hot 100 components for a real run at the chart’s apex.  

Drake feat. J. Cole, “First Person Shooter” / Drake feat. Yeat, “IDGAF” (OVO/Republic): Taylor Swift clearly got under labelmate Drake’s skin last November when her newly remix-boosted Hot 100 conquerer “Anti-Hero” blocked his and 21 Savage’s new “Rich Flex” from debuting at No. 1 on the chart: Might it be time for him to return the favor? Drake will have the advantage of incumbency on the chart, as his J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter” bows atop the listing this week, making for his 13th Hot 100 No. 1 (and Cole’s long-awaited first). The song is expected to drop significantly in streams this week, however, so it might need a boost from a new video (or fan meme) to have much shot at holding the top spot. 

That said, it’s not Drake’s only contender in the chart’s top tier: The Yeat-featuring “IDGAF” has passed it on the daily charts on Spotify and Apple Music for about a week now – currently ranking No. 1 on both listings — and seems likely to take over as his top-charter on the Hot 100, as well. The song’s presence in digital sales and on radio is still fairly minimal however, so it will really have to score big in streaming to have much chance at holding off Swift’s surge for a belated No. 1.  

Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): Remember this one? “Paint the Town Red” has already spent three weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100, and even amid the Drake surge this week it’s still holding strong at No. 4. Doja‘s smash ranks No. 3 both on Billboard’s Radio Songs and Digital Song Sales charts this week, and though it falls to No. 20 on Streaming Songs, it’s still the second-highest non-Drake entry (behind Zach Bryan’s Kacey Musgraves-featuring “I Remember Everything”). There’s not much about the song that’s still new or growing at this point, but with that kind of consistency across chart components, “Paint” might be every bit as much the single to beat this week as “Summer.”  

IN THE MIX 

Bad Bunny, Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana (Rimas): Let’s not forget that one of the biggest pop artists in the world also released a 22-track new album on Friday (Oct. 13). Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana is almost certainly aiming for a No. 1 debut on the Billboard 200, but a bow for one of its tracks atop the Hot 100 may be tougher, as Bad Bunny’s radio support and song sales have never been particularly robust, and he’s already ceded his spot atop the daily DSP charts back to Drake. That said, “Monaco” is the best-performing of its new songs so far, and may not debut too far away from the top spot – which the global superstar has still yet to capture on an unaccompanied solo single.  

SZA, “Snooze” (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA): Another one for the “so close, yet so far” file: Like “Cruel Summer,” SZA’s sublime ballad “Snooze” has taken a winding path to the Hot 100’s top five, and reached a No. 2 high the two weeks prior to Drake’s current onslaught. The song sits at No. 7 this week – blocked by her own Hot 100-topping Drake collab “Slime You Out,” among others – but holds for a second week atop Radio Songs, and may well at least return to the top five next week after some of the Drake entries fall out. But with the song’s video and Justin Bieber-featuring remix already out, there might not be another card left to play for SZA’s slow-burning hit to get over the top. Maybe she should release her own SOS Tour documentary. 

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 21), Drake seems sure to land one of the year’s biggest first weeks with his latest album For All the Dogs, but will have to do so without much in the way of physical sales. 

Drake, For All the Dogs (OVO/Republic): After seemingly countless delays and false starts, Drake’s long-anticipated For All the Dogs finally arrived at 6:00 a.m. ET on Friday morning (Oct. 6). The rapper’s eighth official solo studio album – not counting collaborative sets, compilations, mixtapes or “playlists” — came not only as the superstar rapper was winding down his It’s All a Blur tour alongside Her Loss co-lead 21 Savage, but right before he announced that Dogs would be his last work before an extended hiatus, as he tended to health issues.  

If it’s the last of Drake that fans will get for a while, Dogs is certainly plenty: 23 tracks and 84 minutes, including guest appearances from fellow stars J. Cole, Bad Bunny, SZA (again) and of course Savage, among other big-name and rising artists. The album has received mostly unflattering reviews, but has still dominated streaming services, with 12 of its tracks still in the top 25 of Spotify’s Daily Top USA chart, and all 23 tracks still in the Apple Music real-time top 25 — both currently led by the set’s “IDGAF” featuring Yeat, the leading early contender to become the set’s major breakout hit. 

The album should not have a ton of competition for the Billboard 200’s top spot next week – it’s more of a question of how big his debut atop the chart will be. It will have to come without help from a physical release: Despite other A-list stars of his level putting increasing emphasis on vinyl and CD sets to help bolster their first-week numbers, Drake continues to be digital-only, likely in large part due to his tendency to make last-minute edits to his albums. Nonetheless, lack of physical product didn’t hold Her Loss from posting over 400,000 units in its first week last year, or Certified Lover Boy from over 600,000 in 2021 – with For All the Dogs likely to fall somewhere between those two sets in its debut frame.  

IN THE MIX 

NCT 127, The 5th Album Fact Check (SM Entertainment): South Korean pop group NCT 127 has been a strong contender on the Billboard 200 with each release this decade, hitting the chart’s top five with each of their last three albums (2020’s Neo Zone, 2021’s Sticker and 2022’s Baddies). The group hopes to make it four albums in four years with their fifth LP, Fact Check. Sales of the set will be bolstered by multiple CD packages, including retailer-exclusive variants for Target and Walmart, while the group’s official webstore is also selling nine different alternative versions of the album digitally (each with a different cover and an additional unique bonus track) and three deluxe boxed sets, containing a branded piece of clothing or accessory, along with a physical copy of the album. 

(G)I-dle, Heat (88 Rising/Cube Entertainment): Elsewhere in South Korea, popular girl group (G)I-dle are also back with a new set, the Heat EP. This set is for sale in multiple collectible physical versions (all CD packages), including retailer-exclusive variants for Amazon, Barnes & Noble and Target, with some containing randomized merchandise contents (including photocards and bookmarks). The quintet hit No. 41 on the Billboard 200 earlier this year with their prior EP, I Feel. 

Junior H, $ad Boyz 4 Life II (Warner Music Latina/Rancho Humilde): Junior H has long been one of the most exciting and acclaimed young artists in Mexican music, but his status hasn’t always shown on the Billboard 200, where he’s yet to reach above No. 138. That should change next week with the release of his latest corridos tumbados collection $ad Boyz 4 Life II – his first since gaining extra crossover attention alongside superstar Peso Pluma on hits like “Lady Gaga” and “Bipolar,” both of which are still on the Hot 100 this week. None of those are on his own album, however, which does not include any collaborations – or have any physical versions for sale — but is still expected to stream very well.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 14), Jung Kook looks to follow his Billboard Hot 100-topping “Seven” with a potential second straight No. 1 debut, while the currently reigning Doja Cat and other artists stand in his way. 

Jung Kook feat. Jack Harlow, “3D” (Big Hit/Geffen/Interscope): “Seven,” Jung Kook’s Latto-featuring (and R-rated) pop blast, debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100 back in July, and has since grown into one of the biggest worldwide hits of 2023. It topped the Billboard Global 200 for seven weeks and is still hanging around the Hot 100, ranking at No. 53 this week in its 11th frame on the listing (dated Oct. 7). Now, the solo star is in contention for a second straight debut atop the chart, with new song “3D.” 

Sales will be key for the single — which features American rap star Jack Harlow, and is co-produced by longtime hitmaker BloodPop and “Dynamite” producer David Stewart. The song was released Friday, Sept. 29 and then augmented Monday, Oct. 2, as part of the seven-track 3D: The Remixes set — which also includes an instrumental version, an alternate version, a clean edit, a remix from avant-pop maestro A.G. Cook, and both sped-up and slowed-down versions. All seven tracks are currently in the top eight of the iTunes real-time chart, with the main version of “3D” still reigning five days after its release.  

The question is if it will stream as well as “Seven,” which not only racked up over 150,000 in song sales in its first week, according to Luminate, but also a very impressive 21.9 million streams, including a No. 1 debut on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart. The streaming numbers for “3D” on Spotify and elsewhere have been stable, but not as resounding so far – meaning the song might ultimately need its strong sales to continue throughout the remainder of the week for the song to have a real chance of nabbing the No. 1 spot on next week’s Hot 100.  

Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): Doja Cat’s Scarlet biggest single returns to the Hot 100’s top spot for a second frame this week, following the release of the full album. Its streams will likely recede in the album’s second week, but airplay numbers continue to grow for the Dionne Warwick-sampling pop-rap song, which climbs 9-7 on Billboard’s Radio Songs chart this week, a new peak. If the gains in airplay continue to offset any losses in streaming – which have been relatively minimal to begin with, considering the song still leads on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and is No. 4 on Apple Music’s real-time chart – it should have a pretty good shot to hang on for a third week at No. 1. 

SZA, “Snooze” (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA): The little SZA single that could keeps scaling the Hot 100, hitting yet another new peak this week in its 42nd frame on the listing. She’s finally running out of space on the chart, though – at No. 2, there’s only one spot left to climb to. It could be tough for her to get there next week: The song still trails “Paint” in streams and sales, while the gap between the two is closing on radio (though “Snooze” is No. 3 on Radio Songs and still gaining) – and as she’s already released both the music video and the Justin Bieber-featuring acoustic remix of the song, SZA may be running out of ammo to shoot the track over the top. Still, few would have bet on the song getting this far, so it’d be a little foolish to doubt its ability to grab that final rung.  

IN THE MIX 

Tate McRae, “Greedy” (RCA): McRae’s latest isn’t likely to majorly contend for the Hot 100’s apex this week – but if it keeps growing at the rate it has been, that may not be too far off. The song rises 33-24 in its second week on the Hot 100, and continues to grow from its fast start on streaming, while radio is starting to take notice. It’s also already No. 4 on the Global 200 in its second week. At a time when the kind of classic triple-threat mold of stardom has been a little absent from top 40’s center – and given Ariana Grande in particular has been mostly out of the mix for a decently long period – there’s certainly room for McRae, her catchy new song and captivating new video to finally elbow their way into pop’s inner circle.  

*NSYNC, “Better Place” (DreamWorks/RCA): The first new single in 20 years from one of the most successful pop groups of all-time – must be set for a pretty thunderous chart debut, right? Well… maybe. “Better Place” sold respectably enough in its early release this week to possibly make some kind of Hot 100 impact. But the new song, found on the upcoming Trolls Band Together soundtrack, bowed in the midst of a messy promotional situation (due to the recently ended writers’ strike and still-ongoing actors’ strike), to something of a mixed reception from pop fans – resulting in the early streaming numbers for “Place” being less than exceptional. In other words, Jung Kook’s old group is probably safe for another week in its standing as the most recent male vocal group to capture the chart’s top spot.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Oct. 7), the latest effort from crossover superstar Doja Cat leads a pack of new releases aiming to succeed Olivia Rodrigo and Rod Wave at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. 

Doja Cat, Scarlet (Kemosabe/RCA): In the rankings of the biggest pop stars right now without a No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 to their credit, Doja Cat may very well be atop the list. Her last album, 2021’s Planet Her, debuted at No. 2 on the chart (behind Tyler, the Creator’s Call Me if You Get Lost) but ultimately notched a stunning five singles into the Billboard Hot 100’s top 20 – an ‘80s- or ‘90s-style blockbuster, one that impacted the pop world for well over a calendar year. She didn’t get a Hot 100 No. 1 off that album, but she’s also got two of those for her career: most recently “Paint the Town Red,” the Dionne Warwick-sampling advance track from new set Scarlet, released last Friday (Sept. 22).

Huge pop track record, excellent-performing last album, smash hit lead single: Seems like it should be a recipe for an automatic No. 1 debut this time around, right? Well, maybe, but not definitely: While Doja has always performed well on a single-for-single basis, she’s never had the kind of whole-album-bomb streaming numbers that many artists on her commercial level tend to post in 2023 – trends that seem to be continuing with Scarlet, as most of the album’s tracks have already fallen off the big DSPs’ daily charts. And she doesn’t usually sell tremendous numbers in physical formats, with Scarlet not even being available yet in vinyl: just the standard album for sale on digital and CD, as well as a deluxe edition with two bonus cuts.  

So even as “Paint” continues to dominate on streaming and radio, Doja may have her work cut out for her climbing past a pair of prior No. 1s on the chart: Rod Wave’s Nostalgia and Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts, which hold the top two spots on this week’s Billboard 200 (dated Sept. 30) and are still littering the streaming charts with essentially their entire tracklists. One thing that might give her a valuable late-week boost: “Agora Hills,” released as the new single along with the whole set, has already caught on TikTok (and YouTube, with its eye-popping music video), and seems likely to be ready to supplant “Paint” in the Hot 100’s top tier once that single starts to slow down – if not earlier.  

Zach Bryan, Boys of Faith (Belting Bronco/Warner): Speaking of prior No. 1s on the Billboard 200 – the artist who reigned just before Wave and Rodrigo also is contending for the top spot again this week. Zach Bryan has followed up his best-selling self-titled album (which topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks in September) with the surprise-released new five-songs EP Boys of Faith, featuring guest appearances from fellow acclaimed alt-folk singer-songwriters Noah Kahan and Bon Iver. With no physical release and only a handful of tracks, Faith isn’t likely to put up Zach Bryan numbers – but given Bryan’s streaming prowess lately, and with Kahan collab “Sarah’s Place” off to a particularly dynamite start on DSPs, you can bet it’ll be heard from in the 200’s top tier next week.  

Lil Tecca, Tec (Galactic/Republic): New York rapper Lil Tecca hasn’t scored a major Hot 100 hit since his irresistible breakthrough smash “Ran$om” went all the way to the chart’s top five in 2019, but he’s continued to perform well on the Billboard 200, with both of his two 2020s studio albums (2020’s Virgo World and 2021’s We Love You Tecca 2) debuting at No. 10 on the chart. That might be about where third album Tec shows up, as the 16-track set is off to a strong start on streaming, with advance single “500lbs” looking on pace to potentially become his biggest hit since “Ran$om.” The set is also for sale on CD and digital, and in four deluxe boxed sets sold through Tecca’s webstore, each with a branded T-shirt and a copy of the CD. 

IN THE MIX 

Kylie Minogue, Tension (Darenote/BMG): Lead single “Padam Padam” gave Kylie Minogue her biggest pop culture moment in at least a decade when it became a cult favorite this spring and summer, and the pop legend is looking to capitalize on that momentum this week with the release of 16th studio album Tension. Physical sales would be the key to her first top 20 entry on the 200 since 2010’s Aphrodite, as Tension is available in six CD variants, five vinyl variants, four cassette tapes and three digital album iterations (including an artist webstore deluxe with five bonus tracks). 

Staind, Confessions of the Fallen (BMG): It’s been awhile for nu-metal veterans Staind, who we last got a full album from back in 2011, with their self-titled effort. In the years since then, frontman Aaron Lewis has become better known for his pivot to country, even scoring a top 20 Hot 100 hit with the conservative screed “Am I the Only One?” Still, Confessions lead single “Lowest in Me” proved they were still welcome on rock radio, becoming their fifth Mainstream Rock Airplay No. 1 this August – and you’d have to go back to their 1999 sophomore effort Dysfunction for their last album that failed to reach the top five of the Billboard 200.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 23), one of rap’s most self-contained stars aims for his third straight No. 1 on the Billboard 200 – though one of the summer’s biggest new releases still stands in his way.  

Rod Wave, Nostalgia (Alamo): Florida singer-rapper Rod Wave continues to quietly build his case as one of the most consistently successful artists in popular music. Without any major breakout Hot 100 hits – he’s reached the top 30 seven times to date, but still never the top 10 – Wave has nonetheless hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 with each of his five official sets so far, and topped the chart with his last two albums: 2021’s SoulFly and 2022’s Beautiful Mind.  

Two of those top 30 Billboard Hot 100 hits (the No. 16-peaking “Fight the Feeling” and the No. 26-debuting “Call Your Friends”) arrived in advance of his new LP, Nostalgia, which was released on Friday (Sept. 15). As has traditionally been the case with Wave’s albums, the 18-track Nostalgia is relatively short on big-name features – though he does get one major lift from guest rapper 21 Savage on “Turks & Caicos.”  

The album’s performance will rely solely on its digital performance, as it is not yet available for any kind of physical purchase. However, Wave has been regularly dominant on streaming since his breakthrough at the end of the 2010s, and Nostalgia appears to be no exception so far — five days after its release, the album still claims 15 of the top 18 spots on Apple Music’s real-time chart. It’ll need robust numbers to get by Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts in its second week, though: The 302,000 units that album debuts with on this week’s Billboard 200 was the year’s fourth-biggest total so far, and the set remains strong in streams and sales.  

Mitski, The Land Is Inhospitable and So Are We (Dead Oceans): Indie darling Mitski made a huge jump into the mainstream at the beginning of the decade, becoming a massive favorite on TikTok over the pandemic and cashing in on her newfound visibility with a top five Billboard 200 debut for her Laurel Hell album in early 2022. She looks to keep that momentum going with this month’s The Land Is Inhospitable and So Are We, which is available in four vinyl variants (as well as on cassette and CD), and which eschews the sparkling synth-pop of its predecessor’s singles for the dustier singer-songwriter balladry of some of its deeper cuts. It’s already paid off with one breakout hit: “My Love Mine All Mine” climbs to a new high of No. 50 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart today.  

Dan + Shay, Bigger Houses (Warner Bros. Nashville): After nearly breaking up following their tour in support of 2021’s Good Things, the hitmaking country duo of Dan Smyers and Shay Mooney make a big return this week with their Bigger Houses album. The set, released in five variants on vinyl and two on CD (with signed copies available in both formats), should sell well – but it might not be as big a performer on streaming as past sets, since none of the advance songs have really taken off there yet (“Save Me the Trouble” has been the highest Hot 100-charter so far, at a modest No. 84.). The duo has a streak to protect with Houses: Each of their four full-lengths to date have reached the Billboard 200’s top 10. 

IN THE MIX 

Diddy, The Love Album: Off the Grid (Love/Motown): Diddy’s long-awaited Love Album is his first solo release in 17 years, and his first major release of any kind since 2010’s cult classic Last Train to Paris set as part of Diddy – Dirty Money. The new album has no advance hits to support it, but it does have volume on its side: both with its length (23 tracks) and a robust guest list that includes such big-name guests as The Weeknd, 21 Savage, Justin Bieber, H.E.R., Jazmine Sullivan, Swae Lee, Mary J. Blige, Summer Walker and Babyface.  

Sleepy Hallow, Boy Meets World (Winners Circle/RCA): Two years after hitting the Billboard 200’s top 20 with debut album Still Sleep?, New York rapper Sleepy Hallow returns with sophomore set Boy Meets World. The set includes a handful of the one-offs he’s released over those two years (like 2022 Hot 100 hit “Die Young”), as well as new collabs with hitmakers Fivio Foreign and Doechii – the latter on “Anxiety,” which has already found some early success on TikTok.  

Thirty Seconds to Mars, It’s the End of the World But It’s a Beautiful Day (Concord): One of the biggest rock bands of the late ‘00s and early ‘10s, the Jared Leto-led 30STM scored their best Billboard 200 debut in 2018, with their America album. That set finally gets its follow-up this month with the more pop- and electronic-influenced It’s the End of the World But It’s a Beautiful Day, with 13 separate vinyl variants available to attract the kind of sales that powered America’s debut. Beautiful Day won’t have the advantage its predecessor did of being able to count concert ticket/album sale redemption offers towards its final tally, though, with such bundles being removed from BB200 calculations in July 2020.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 23), the biggest new artist of the early decade returns with her second full-length album – but will it be a more or less impressive bow than her first? 
Olivia Rodrigo, Guts (Geffen): At a time in the music industry when new pop stars have become significantly harder to develop and damn near impossible to simply manufacture, Olivia Rodrigo has stood out as the instant-phenomenon exception to nearly every rule. She debuted atop the Billboard Hot 100 with her first official single, “Drivers License,” in early 2021, and only grew in momentum from there – also scoring another No. 1 with follow-up single “Good 4 U,” and a Billboard 200-topping debut album with the acclaimed (and eventually Grammy-winning) Sour. 

On Friday, Rodrigo returned with Guts, her much-anticipated sophomore LP. The album was already led by two Hot 100 top 10 hits, including her third No. 1 with the unpredictable ballad “Vampire,” and this week also sees a third single being pushed in the frisky “Get Him Back!” — which Rodrigo not only released an eye-catching music video for on Tuesday, but also delivered its live debut on the MTV Video Music Awards.  

The album has dominated streaming services since its Friday release, with six of its 12 tracks still in the top 10 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and four in the daily iTunes Top 10 five days later. It’s also expected to sell well, with 13 vinyl variants available – including exclusives for her official store, Amazon, Target, indies and Walmart, and two boxed sets with a vinyl LP and a piece of branded merch inside the box – as well as four CD variants, including an exclusive for Target, a signed CD sold at indie retailers and two boxed sets with a CD and branded merch inside the box. 

It should all be enough to make the album the week’s top Billboard 200 debut, and very likely the No. 1 album – but will it be able to top Sour, which posted 295,000 equivalent album units in its first week? So far, its streaming numbers are very comparable to Rodrigo’s debut, and have held strong throughout the week – though with only 12 tracks and no deluxe edition yet to speak of, the volume will invariably be lower than some more juiced-up tracklists of recent blockbusters from the likes of Morgan Wallen and Travis Scott. It may come down to her physical sales numbers, and how well those maintain day-to-day, to see if Guts has the internal fortitude to rise above her 2021 LP.  

V, Layover (Big Hit): The latest BTS alum to contend on the Billboard 200 is the baritone V, who on Friday unleashed his debut EP Layover. Like essentially all BTS-related releases, the set should sell in large physical numbers, thanks to a wide variety of variants and packaging options – including 13 collectible CD variants, all with randomized branded merch elements contained inside, and exclusive variants sold at Target, Walmart, Barnes & Noble and via the Weverse store. The six-track effort was preceded by lead single “Love Me Again,” which became V’s second solo entry on the Hot 100, debuting at No. 96.  

Tyler Childers, Rustin’ in the Rain (Hickman Holler/RCA): The timing is certainly right for a Tyler Childers album: Not only because he just scored his first Hot 100 hit with the No. 43-debuting “In Your Love,” but because the mainstream presence for his sort of rootsy country and Americana has been majorly expanded by the recent crossover success of Zach Bryan and Oliver Anthony Music. Childers is also offering four vinyl variants and three boxed sets (with LP and branded merch) of the new seven-track set — which includes “Love,” as well as covers of the Kris Kristoffersen-penned country staple “Help Me Make It Through the Night” and contemporary singer-songwriter S.G. Goodman’s “Space and Time.”  

IN THE MIX 

Laufey, Bewitched (AWAL): Icelandic jazz-pop singer-songwriter Laufey, who appeared on her home country’s versions of both The Voice and America’s Got Talent as a teenager, scored a surprise TikTok hit earlier this year with the sweetly aching “From the Start,” which has racked up over 58 million on-demand U.S. streams since it came out in May. On Friday, she released her debut album, the 14-track Bewitched, which is for sale on CD, cassette and exclusive silver nugget vinyl on her webstore – as is the sheet music for the set, certainly something of a rarity for a 20-something artist in 2023.  

Olivia Rodrigo, Sour (Geffen): Don’t forget about Rodrigo’s debut, which has hardly become a stranger to the higher regions of the Billboard 200 since its May 2021 release. The album currently sits at No. 33 on the chart in its 120th week, and should be due for another sizeable jump in the week following its successor Guts’ debut: Billboard reported yesterday that Sour was up 21% in streams in the first four days of her sophomore album’s release.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 16), the last four singles to top the Billboard Hot 100 have all been led by country artists – and white guys – but both streaks may be coming to an end with the rise of a returning pop-rap star’s latest.  

Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): It feels almost quaint in 2023: A big pop release that makes a solid debut, and climbs from there. Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red” entered at a good-not-great No. 15 on the Hot 100 in August, but it has only grown since then, jumping into the top five last week and hitting a new peak of No. 3 this week. With the song still gaining on all three Hot 100 component charts – Streaming Songs (up 3-2 this week), Digital Song Sales (11-6) and Radio Songs (24-17) — it should be a threat to take the top spot on next week’s chart.  

If it does, it will be notable for reasons beyond becoming Doja Cat’s second career Hot 100-topper, following 2020’s “Say So” featuring Nicki Minaj. It would be the first non-country No. 1 on the chart since Jung Kook’s Latto-featuring “Seven” debuted atop the chart dated July 29, seven weeks earlier. In the time since, a record four consecutive country songs (defined as songs deemed eligible for Billboard’s Hot Country Songs ranking) have claimed the top spot: Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” Jason Aldean’s “Try That in a Small Town,” Oliver Anthony Music’s “Rich Men North of Richmond,” and this week’s new No. 1, Zach Bryan’s “I Remember Everything,” featuring Kacey Musgraves.  

A much longer streak would also be ended if “Paint the Town Red” hits No. 1: It’s now been 55 weeks since a rap song last ruled the Hot 100 (“Super Freaky Girl,” by Doja Cat’s “Say So” co-star Nicki Minaj), the longest such run since the turn of the century. While Doja’s rap bona fides have long been the subject of (often ridiculous) internet debate as she crosses further into the top 40 world, “Paint” has scaled Billboard’s Hot Rap Songs chart – currently sitting at No. 1 there for a second week – meaning the genre’s Hot 100 drought may soon be over.  

[embedded content]

Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything” (Belting Bronco/Warner): The No. 1 debut that few saw coming last week should not be due for a particularly huge drop off in its second week. Zach Bryan‘s “I Remember Everything,” featuring Kacey Musgraves, has been holding fairly strong on both streaming (still No. 1 on Apple Music’s daily charts and No. 2 on Spotify) and sales (in the top five on iTunes) — and without any major debuts or gainers (aside from Doja) coming from behind it, it should still be in contention for one of the Hot 100’s top few spots this week.  

The question for “Everything” will be how much radio embraces it. Bryan’s American Heartbreak Hot 100 top 10 hit “Something in the Orange” ultimately elbowed its way into the top 20 on Country Airplay, but Bryan’s stardom has mostly come independently of radio and the Nashville machine, and it’s not clear yet if “I Remember Everything” will prove an exception. So far, the song is nearing the Country Airplay chart, with 272,000 audience impressions at the format Sept. 1-4, according to Luminate, up from 175,000 in its entire first week.

Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): It’s probably an overstatement to say that you have to feel for Luke Combs – when he first decided to cover Tracy Chapman’s alt-folk classic “Fast Car,” he probably never expected to get anywhere near the top spot of the Hot 100 with it. At this point, though, the song has now spent eight weeks idling at No. 2, while seemingly every other male country singer-songwriter speeds just ahead of him – and it’s starting to look like it might not ever get there himself.

“Fast Car” does finally lead the Radio Songs chart this week – Combs’ first No. 1 on that listing – while still hanging in the top 10 of Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs. But “Car” seems to have stalled on all three component charts, so if Doja zooms by it this week, it might be tough for it to catch up again.  

IN THE MIX 

Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Labor Day Weekend came and went without any final promotional efforts for Taylor Swift’s “Cruel Summer,” which remains at No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week, after reaching No. 3, but is nearing its peak at radio and might not be able to hold in streaming and sales to remain a true No. 1 contender for much longer. All that remains now is the potential boost from the already blockbuster-certified Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour movie – but with that film not due still for over a month, it’s likely that “Summer” will have cooled off too much by then anyway.  

[embedded content]

Nicki Minaj, “Last Time I Saw You” (Young Money/Republic): Speaking of Minaj: It’s likely that she will have the week’s best Hot 100 bow with her much-hyped new single “Last Time I Saw You.” The song got off to a typically strong start in sales and streaming upon its Friday (Sept. 1) debut, but has already faded pretty quickly on the daily Spotify and Apple charts. Given the song’s top 40-friendly crossover sound, though, it might not be too long before radio starts picking up the slack there.