State Champ Radio Hipgnosis
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Hipgnosis Songs Capital has closed its deal to buy 100% of Justin Bieber‘s publishing, as well as his artist royalties from his master recordings and neighboring rights, Hipgnosis has confirmed. The deal was priced at just north of $200 million, according to a source familiar with the situation, making this the largest rights sale for any artist of Bieber’s generation. It’s also Hipgnosis’ biggest acquisition to date, covering all 290 titles in Bieber’s catalog released prior to Dec. 31, 2021, including his most recent album Justice (2021).
Billboard originally reported in December that a Bieber deal valued at over $200 million was in the works amid founder and chief executive Merck Mercuriadis‘ efforts to “close about $500 million in deals” between mid-November and mid-December. Although Mercuriadis did not say what the deals were at the time, the Bieber acquisition appears to be part of that disclosure.
Following a hot 2021 for catalog sales, with deals like Bruce Springsteen and Paul Simon making headlines and some of the world’s biggest private equity players including Blackstone, KKR and Apollo Global Management all taking stakes in the market, rising interest rates and changes in currency exchanges cooled the sector in 2022. Still, deals have been getting done. Last year, Justin Timberlake, Leonard Cohen, Nile Rodgers, Kenny Chesney, Neil Young and Nelly Furtado all sold some of their rights to Hipgnosis. Sting, David Bowie‘s estate, Phil Collins and his Genesis bandmates, Future, Frank Zappa and Neil Diamond also sold certain assets to investors in 2022.
Typically, newer catalogs like Bieber’s are considered riskier investments since they don’t have as much history behind them to prove staying power. That means they often sell for lower multiples than those of classic acts. Bieber’s success, however, has been undeniable since his 2009 debut album, My World, and the 2010 follow-up My World 2.0, the latter of which topped the Billboard 200 albums chart and included the hit single “Baby.” In all, Bieber has charted eight No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200 chart, including his most recent full-length studio release, 2021’s Justice.
On the Billboard Hot 100 songs chart, Bieber has collected 26 top 10s, including eight No. 1s. His albums have generated 28 million equivalent album units in the U.S., of which 13.2 million are in traditional album sales, according to Luminate. His collected songs billed primarily to him, per Luminate, have generated 16.6 billion on-demand official streams in the U.S.
“The impact of Justin Bieber on global culture over the last 14 years has truly been remarkable,” said Mercuriadis in a statement. “At only 28 years of age, he is one of a handful of defining artists of the streaming era that has revitalized the entire music industry, taking a loyal and worldwide audience with him on a journey from teen phenomenon to culturally important artist. This acquisition ranks among the biggest deals ever made for an artist under the age of 70, such is the power of this incredible catalog that has almost 82 million monthly listeners and over 30 billion streams on Spotify alone. Scooter Braun has helped him build a magnificent catalogue, and it’s a pleasure to welcome Justin and his incredible songs and recordings to the Hipgnosis family.”
“I want to thank Merck and his entire Hipgnosis team and all of our partners involved for working so hard to make this historic deal happen,” says Scooter Braun, Bieber’s manager for 15 years, founder of SB Projects and CEO of HYBE America. “When Justin made the decision to make a catalog deal we quickly found the best partner to preserve and grow this amazing legacy was Merck and Hipgnosis. For over a decade now Justin Bieber has entertained us and moved us with some of the biggest songs in the world. I’m so proud of him and all those involved over the years in helping amass this incredible body of work. Justin is truly a once in a generation artist and that is reflected and acknowledged by the magnitude of this deal. For 15 years I have been grateful to witness this journey and today I am happy for all those involved. Justin’s greatness is just beginning.”
Justin Bieber was represented by Braun, David Bolno of NKSFB, Aaron Rosenberg and Audrey Benoualid of Myman Greenspan Fox Rosenberg Mobasser Younger & Light LLP, and Michael Rhodes of Cooley.
Hipgnosis Songs Capital was represented by William Leibowitz of William R. Leibowitz Law Group, Seth Traxler and Rory Wellever of Kirkland & Ellis LLP, and Robert Fowler and Lisa Ong of H.W. Fisher.
Hipgnosis Songs Capital is in talks to buy Justin Bieber‘s interests in his recorded music and publishing catalogs for more than $200 million, with the deal likely to close in the next few days, according to sources. The acquisition would include Bieber’s biggest hits, from “Baby” to “Love Yourself” and beyond.
In correspondence with Billboard in mid-November, Hipgnosis founder and chief executive, Merck Mercuriadis, said the company was working to “close about $500 million in deals between now and mid-December.” Although he did not say what the deals were at the time, the reported Bieber acquisition seems like a possible part of that disclosure. News of the upcoming deal between Bieber and Hipgnosis was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
The incoming deal arrives at the end of a year that saw a cooldown in the music catalog market. Though major acts like Justin Timberlake (who sold to Hipgnosis for $100 million), Sting (who sold to UMPG for an estimated $360 million), Genesis (who sold a package deal to Concord for around $350 million), David Bowie (whose estate sold his publishing catalog to Warner Chappell for $250 million) and more have closed deals in the last twelve months for blockbuster prices, 2022 has been a markedly quieter year compared to the red-hot market of the last half-decade.
“The environment has changed entirely since the end of last year — interest rates are significantly up, currency exchange rates are very different — I don’t think the current market is what it was,” explained Joe Brenner, partner at entertainment law firm Grubman Shire Meiselas & Sacks, in an interview with Billboard this fall. In a mid-year report to investors, Mercuriadis also admitted this year’s environment has proven more “challenging.” To top it off, Brenner added, there are simply fewer high-dollar classic rock catalogs left to acquire, as many of them have already been sold (Pink Floyd being a notable exception).
Catalogs only a decade or so old, like Bieber’s, are often considered riskier investments than those that have had a longer runway to prove they will stand the test of time, and, as a consequence, they tend to fetch lower sums. However, these younger song collections are often where Hipgnosis chooses to invest its capital. Between the Timberlake catalog purchase this year and other acquisitions like Jack Antonoff, Mark Ronson, Timbaland and more, the company has bet big on buying modern classics to flesh out its over 65,000-song portfolio, which also includes songs by more seasoned icons like Journey, Leonard Cohen and Barry Manilow.
Hipgnosis Songs Capital is an investment vehicle established by Hipgnosis in partnership with Blackstone. The New York-based private equity firm pledged $1 billion to further investment in music IP and also took a majority stake. Hipgnosis Songs Capital is considered separate from the London-listed Hipgnosis Songs Fund, the acquirer of music publishing and recording rights. Additionally, the Mercuriadis-founded company includes Hipgnosis Songs Management, which manages the publicly traded company’s catalog.
Representatives for Hipgnosis and Bieber have not responded to Billboard’s requests for comment.
The Ledger is a weekly newsletter about the economics of the music business sent to Billboard Pro subscribers. An abbreviated version of the newsletter is published online.
This was a year without splashy public offerings, like Universal Music Group’s last year and Warner Music Group’s the year before. Some of the biggest rights acquisitions of all time — for Bob Dylan’s and Bruce Springsteen’s recordings and publishing, and David Bowie’s publishing took place in those years, too. And the time when the biggest companies in the business could acquire their rivals may be over for the time being as well.
Rising interest rates put a chill on the catalog acquisition market and brought down valuations, but there was no shortage of investors for a seemingly never-ending supply of creators willing to take advantage of the streaming boom to part with their catalogs. The list of deals that didn’t even make this list includes various rights for the music of The Ramones, Justin Timberlake, Keith Urban, Louis Prima, Swedish House Mafia, Future and Blake Shelton.
Only two of the last year’s top 10 deals — ranked by dollar amount — didn’t involve a catalog changing hands. One was a reverse merger that made French streaming company Deezer a publicly traded company, while he other was Spotify’s latest acquisition to further its goal of becoming a one-stop destination for audio.
Concord sells asset-backed securities ($1.8 billion)
This month, Concord priced the biggest music-related asset-backed securitization in history: $1.8 billion of senior notes backed by a diversified catalog of music publishing and recorded music rights valued at $4.1 billion. Apollo’s Capital Solutions business structured the transaction and formed an investor syndicate led by Apollo-managed funds. JP Morgan was the co-structuring agent. Music-backed securitization was made famous in 1997 with $55 million of asset-backed securities, commonly referred to as Bowie Bonds, supported by royalties from Bowie’s recorded music catalog. Concord’s offering was significantly larger and diverse than Bowie’s: The catalog behind Concord’s bonds includes compositions and recordings by Phil Collins, Creedence Clearwater Revival, Daft Punk, Miles Davis, Imagine Dragons, Pink Floyd, Cyndi Lauper, Little Richard and James Taylor.
Brookfield Asset Management Invests in Primary Wave ($1.7 billion)
The biggest music industry deal of the year by dollar amount was something of a surprise. The 100-year-old Canadian asset manager Brookfield’s decision to put $1.7 billion into Primary Wave, an active buyer of music rights for nearly 17 years, came during a lull in the market. Rising interest rates were making music rights a less attractive investment, headline-grabbing acquisitions had slowed since the Fed began hiking rates in March and possible changes to tax treatment of catalog sales in 2022 culminated a busy 2021. Brookfield wasn’t discouraged by market forces, though. The two companies spent six months hashing out a deal, Brookfield managing partner Angelo Rufino told Billboard. Brookfield was attracted to Primary Wave’s model of employing marketing and branding experts to build the value of its acquisitions. He called Primary Wave CEO Larry Mestel “the best I’ve ever seen at leveraging brand extensions to supercharge the growth of these assets.”
Kobalt sells majority interest to Francisco Partners ($750 million)
Kobalt has been selling off assets left and right in recent years. It sold its two investment funds that owned music assets — one went to Hipgnosis Song Management for $323 million in 2020, the other to KKR and Dundee Partners for $1.1 billion in 2021 (which resulted in the Chord Music Partners bond offering this year, see below) — and Sony Music purchased Kobalt’s independent distributor and label services provider, AWAL, as well as its neighboring rights business. These moves allowed Kobalt to pay off its debt and finish 2021 with $315 million in cash. This year, Kobalt sold a piece of itself when tech-focused investment firm Francisco Partners, along with Dundee Partners and Matt Pincus’ MUSIC, bought a majority stake in the company for $750 million.
KKR sells asset-backed security ($732.5 million)
The technical sounding Hi-Fi Music IP Issuer II L.P., Series 2022-1, was a bond offering by Chord Music Partners in February, backed by a music catalog valued at $1.13 billion. What the bond lacked in curb appeal it made up for in sheer dollar volume after raising $732.5 million for Chord Music Partners, a venture of KKR Credit Advisors and Dundee Partners. The music publishing catalog behind Hi-Fi Music offering — about 62,000 titles in all — was purchased from Kobalt three months earlier. The According to a report by ratings agency KBRA, the Hi-Fi offering is backed by over 65,000 compositions and master recordings and related assets and includes artists and songwriters such as The Weeknd, Maroon 5, Childish Gambino, Dua Lipa, Mumford & Sons and Stevie Nicks.
Concord acquires Genesis, Phil Collins and Mike + The Mechanics rights ($335 million to $375 million)
Phil Collins’ and Genesis’s The Last Domino tour, which concluded at London’s O2 Arena in March, was a reminder of how beloved the 71-year-old Collins remains 47 years after he took over vocal duties when original Genesis singer Peter Gabriel departed in 1975. In that warm afterglow, Concord acquired the recording catalogs and music publishing rights of Collins, as well as Tony Banks and Mike Rutherford for the years they were in Genesis and Mike + The Mechanics, for something in the range of $335 million to $375 million. (Former Genesis members Peter Gabriel and Steve Hackett did not participate in the deal.) Collins’ solo material, focused on a string of four multi-platinum albums from 1981 to 1989, has 403 million streams in the U.S. this year (through Dec. 8), according to Luminate. In addition, Collins’ catalog has nearly 311,000 airplay spins this year. The acquisition includes Collins’ signature solo hit “In The Air Tonight,” from the 1981 album Face Value, that counts for more than a quarter of his year-to-date on-demand streams, and “That’s All,” a No.6 hit on the Hot 100 from the 1983 album Genesis. “Everyone at Concord feels the weight of the cultural significance of this remarkable collection of works,” Concord president Bob Valentine said when the deal was announced.
Sting sells entire publishing catalog to Universal Music Group ($360 million)
Universal Music Group isn’t the most active buyer of music catalogs, but it makes a splash when it decides to pull the trigger. In 2020, it purchased Bob Dylan’s publishing catalog for an estimated $400 million. In February, UMG acquired Sting’s entire publishing catalog, including his compositions with The Police (Sting was the sole songwriter of the group’s most popular songs, such as “Roxanne,” “Every Breath You Take,” “Message in a Bottle,” “Every Little Thing She Does is Magic”) as well as his solo material (“Fields of Gold,” “Englishman in New York,” “Shape of My Heart,” “If You Love Somebody Set Them Free”). Because UMG already has the master recordings to both the Police and Sting’s solo releases, buying the publishing catalog brings both rights under one roof. That should facilitate licensing and enhance UMG’s ability to generate income from the catalog. Billboard believes Sting’s representatives were shopping the catalog with a $360 million price tag, making the deal the largest for a single artist in 2022. Across both the Police and Sting’s solo releases, the catalog generated 469 million on-demand streams in the U.S. in 2022 (through Dec. 8), according to Luminate.
HarbourView Equity Partners acquires SoundHouse ($325 million)
HarborView Equity Partners burst onto the music business scene in 2021, led by founder and CEO Sherrese Clark Soares, an alum of Morgan Stanley and Providence Equity Partners-backed Tempo Music, and $1 billion backing by Apollo Global Management. Among its initial deals were the publishing catalog of Latin star Luis Fonsi that includes a share of the global hit “Despascito,” the master recording income of country star Brad Paisley, the publishing catalog of country group Lady A and the publishing catalog of Dre & Vidal, the songwriting and production duo who has worked with Alicia Keys, Justin Bieber and Mary J. Blige. HarborView’s biggest-single acquisition is an unknown name with considerable star-power: SoundHouse, the owner of about 20 master recording catalogs and the assets of indie contemporary Christian label InPop. That gave HarborView the rights to some master recordings by the likes of Tech N9ne, Trey Songz, George Jones, Whiskey Myers and Tenth Avenue North. Billboard estimates the deal was worth about $325 million. SoundHouse’s 2021 income was said to be about $24 million.
Sony Music acquired Som Livre ($255 million)
Brazil’s largest domestic record label hit the market as its parent company, Grupo Globo, went through organization restructuring. Announced in 2021, Sony Music’s acquisition Som Livre was finalized in Feb. 2022 after Brazilian regulators said there would be “low market concentration and low barriers to entry” from the merger, despite Sony already having the top record label market share in Brazil and Som Livre being third behind Universal Music Brasil. Som Livre is home to more than 80 artists, including sertanejo act Jorge & Mateus, forró star Wesley Safadão and rising stars like Israel & Rodolffo. Domestic music accounts for 70% of total music consumption in Brazil, the world’s 11th largest recorded music market in 2021, according to the IFPI.
Sony Music acquired Bob Dylan’s recorded music catalog ($200 million)
Thirteen months after Universal Music Group acquired Bob Dylan’s songwriting catalog, Sony Music picked up the bard’s recorded music catalog. Sony has not disclosed the terms of the transaction, but Billboard estimates the catalog generates roughly $16 million per year globally and is worth $200 million or more. The catalog covers all of Dylan’s recordings — 39 studio albums and 16 compilations in the Bootleg series — as well as unreleased material that could be released on future collections. (Separately, Primary Wave acquired Dylan’s share of the master and neighboring rights royalties from the Traveling Wilburys supergroup.) It makes sense that Dylan’s recordings ended up with Sony. The artist spent almost his entire career at Columbia Records, save two albums, Planet Waves and Before the Flood, both released by David Geffen’s Asylum Records in 1974 but distributed by Sony for decades. Dylan’s catalog amassed 313.5 million on-demand streams in 2022 (through Dec. 8), according to Luminate, and provides Sony with ample opportunities for licensing for film, television and advertisements (Airbnb used his track “Shelter From The Storm” from 1975’s Blood on the Tracks in a television ad this year). He used his return to Columbia in 1974 to gain ownership of his recordings, according to Dylan: A Biography by Bob Spitz.
Universal Music Group acquires Neil Diamond Catalog ($145 million)
In February, Universal Music Group announced a deal to acquire Neil Diamond’s song and master recording catalogs, reuniting Diamond’s non-UMG work with music released through UMG’s MCA Records during the artist’s successful 1968 to 1972 streak. Diamond’s catalog includes “Sweet Caroline,” “Cracklin Rosie” and “Forever iIn Blue Jeans.” His songwriting catalog includes compositions for other artists that reached No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart: “I’m a Believer” by The Monkees (1966); “You Don’t Bring Me Flowers” by Barbra Streisand (1978, co-written with Alan and Marilyn Bergman); and “Red, Red Wine” by UB40 (1988). Additionally, the recording of “Girl, You’ll Be a Woman Soon” by Urge Overkill has an indelible place in pop culture for its use in Quentin Tarantino’s 1994 movie Pulp Fiction. The trove of material included 110 unreleased tracks, an unreleased album and archival video. The deal also includes the rights to release any future music by Diamond should he return to the studio. Billboard estimates the deal was worth about $145 million.
Deezer’s reverse merger with SPAC I2PO ($143 million)
Deezer was one of two music companies to go public in 2022 through a reverse merger with a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) in April before the SPAC craze fizzled in the second half of the year. (The other was Anghami, an Abu Dhabi-based streaming service. A third, wholesale distribution giant Alliance Entertainment, plans to complete a reverse merger with Adara Acquisition Corp.) The reverse merger with French company I2PO, which traded on the Euronext Paris exchange, provided Deezer with 135 million euros and valued Deezer at 1.08 billion euros ($1.17 billion at the time). The money came through a PIPE (private investment in public equity) subscribed by most of Deezer’s existing shareholders, including Access Industries, Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group, French telecom company Orange, Kingdom Holdings, Eurazeo and Xavier Niel. After investors poured money into blank check companies in 2020 and 2021 in pursuit of companies to take public, SPAC deals are increasingly rare these days. Among the many SPACs to end their search and return funds to shareholders are Music Acquisition Corp, which raised $230 million in Feb. 2021, and Liberty Media’s $575 million Liberty Media Acquisition Corporation.
Spotify acquired audiobook distributor Findaway ($122 million)
Findaway was neither Spotify’s priciest acquisition — it paid more for podcast companies The Ringer and Gimlet and tech platforms Anchor and Megaphone — nor was it the splashiest deal the music streaming giant has made in its roughly 15-year history. But buying the Ohio-based audiobook distributor was a pivotal moment in the company’s years-long transition from a music platform to a broader audio platform. With its share price down 68.1% year to date and investors anxious for profits, Spotify is betting that being a single destination for all things audio is a better strategy than focusing solely on music. The more ways Spotify can keep people listening, the idea goes, the longer consumers will engage with the platform , which in turn will funnels more people from the free version to the subscription service. Plus, audiobook margins are about double what Spotify gets for licensing music. Audiobooks also fit neatly with Spotify’s ongoing battle with Apple over the latter’s 30% share of in-app purchases and subscription revenue. Spotify CEO Daniel Ek’s PR push in recent months has been aided — and overshadowed — by new Twitter CEO Elon Musk’s public takedown of Apple over the same in-app fees.
LONDON — Hipgnosis Songs Funds reported a 7.5% year-on-year rise in gross revenue to $91.7 million for the six months ended Sept. 30, up from $85.3 million in the same period the previous year, at the company’s bi-annual presentation to investors, held in London Thursday (Dec. 8).
Net revenue — gross revenue minus royalties paid to songwriters under contract and administered catalogs — grew 5.8% to $78.4 million during the same period, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) increased 16.9% year-on-year to $63.8 million.
Hipgnosis’ portfolio of over 65,000 songs, which includes hits by Dave Stewart, Timbaland, Journey, Mark Ronson and Barry Manilow, and includes the writer’s and/or publisher’s share of 13 of YouTube’s top 30 most viewed videos, has a net asset value (NAV) of $1.52 billion, down from $1.58 billion on March 31, according to the company’s mid-year financial results.
They report its “operative” net asset value as $2.22 billion, down from $2.24 billion six months prior. The aggregate fair value of Hipgnosis’ extensive portfolio was calculated by independent valuer Citrin Cooperman at $2.67 billion.
Speaking at the investor presentation, held at London’s Savoy Place, Hipgnosis’ founder and chief executive Merck Mercuriadis said he shared investors’ concern over the Guernsey-registered company’s share price, which has fallen by nearly 30% on the London Stock Exchange over the past six months as investor interest in music stocks has cooled. The share price at the close of trading on Monday was £0.81.5, down from £1.26.0 at the start of the year.
“I’m not going to pretend that the current share price is anything other than disappointing,” said Mercuriadis at the start of an almost three-hour presentation, which also included talks by Hipgnosis Songs Fund chief financial officer Chris Helm, Hipgnosis Song Management president and COO Ben Katovsky and chief music officer Ted Cockle, as well as a brief live music performance by rock guitarist Richie Sambora.
(Hipgnosis Songs Fund is the acquirer of music publishing and recording rights, while Hipgnosis Songs Management manages the publicly traded company’s catalog. There is also Hipgnosis Songs Capital ICAV, an investment vehicle established in partnership with Blackstone that earlier this year acquired Justin Timberlake’s back catalog, but is separate from the London-listed Hipgnosis Songs Fund.)
Mercuriadis said that Hipgnosis’ current share price “fundamentally undervalues the company” and he was confident the company’s extensive portfolio and proactive drive to grow revenues from its 146 catalogs, coupled with the continued growth of the global music industry, “supports our longer-term expectations for substantial revenue growth” and “will deliver superior shareholder returns over the medium term.”
Despite what Mercuriadis said was a “very challenging environment,” Hipgnosis operative net asset value per share remained steady at $1.8312 in the six months ended Sept. 30, which, when translated into pound sterling (at a sterling to dollar exchange rate of $1.2223), gave an equivalent net asset value of 149.82p as of Dec. 6.
Like-for-like pro forma (PFAR) revenues in the first half of the calendar year was $58.5 million, a 7.8% increase on the comparative period in 2021.
Over the last six weeks, Hipgnosis Songs Fund Ltd., the trailblazing acquirer of music publishing and recording rights, has been buying up a different kind of asset. Over seven transactions since Oct. 18, the company has been repurchasing its own stock, 250,000 shares at a time, to help support its slumping share price. So far, it has spent 1.5 million pounds ($1.8 million) to buy back 1.75 million of its shares. And while that accounts for just 0.14% of the roughly 1.21 billion issued shares, it underscores a crucial conundrum for the publicly traded company.
While, like much of the music business, Hipgnosis’ business has been steadily growing thanks mostly to booming music streaming revenues, its shares have lost 34% of their value year-to-date through Nov. 29. That decline is about six times worse than the 5.7% drop suffered by the FTSE 350 Media Index, representing 10 media companies on the London Stock Exchange. It’s more than triple the New York Stock Exchange composite index’s 10.1% deficit.
Normally, buying back shares lifts a company’s stock by both providing demand (which supports the stock price) and reducing the number of shares outstanding (which increases the per-share equity value). But since Hipgnosis began repurchasing its shares on Oct. 18, its share price has fallen 3.5% while the stock market has solidly improved: Over that time, the FTSE 350 Media index rose 6.8% and the New York Stock Exchange composite index rose 9.5%.
The share repurchases to date have been too few to move the needle. At the Sept. 21 annual general meeting, Hipgnosis’ shareholders approved a repurchase program that can buy up to 14.99% of its issued share capital through Dec. 8. So far, less than 1% of that allowable number has been bought back. And with less than 10 days left until the deadline, Hipgnosis is unlikely to make a much more meaningful dent. As of March 31, the date of Hipgnosis’ latest financial statement, the company had only $30 million in cash and about $100 million of borrowing capacity under its $700 million revolving credit facility. To buy back that full 14.99% stake at the current price and exchange rate would cost the company another $180 million.
But buying enough shares to directly impact the price isn’t necessarily the goal. The repurchase program can still act as a signal to investors that the company believes its stock is undervalued and is taking measures to address the matter. If all goes well, the decision to return cash to shareholders will end up boosting investor confidence in the music fund. That could ultimately help its share price, which is currently trading at a 46.7% discount to the company’s operative net asset value per ordinary share, according to the company’s July 13 mid-year earnings results. (Operative NAV is the fair market value of the catalog with amortization added back.) Even after considering its $570 million of debt (as of March 31), Hipgnosis shares are still trading 27.7% below the catalog’s value.
On paper, Hipgnosis should be a safe bet for investors: It buys dependable, recession-proof music intellectual property that churns out predictable royalties that are uncorrelated with the marketplace. The face of the company, founder Merck Mercuriadis, reshaped music investing by bucking the tradition of using debt to fund catalog acquisitions and launching the first publicly traded, equity-backed royalty fund that focused solely on music assets. Mercuriadis runs an investment advisory, Hipgnosis Songs Management, that collects a fee for managing the publicly traded company’s catalog. Mercuriadis declined to comment for this article.
From 2018 to 2021, Hipgnosis raised almost 1.3 billion pounds ($1.55 billion) through eight offerings on the London Stock Exchange, spending the money, and some debt, on established, proven songs — music publishing, recorded music catalogs and creator royalty streams — by the likes of Neil Young, Journey and Red Hot Chili Peppers. Mercuriadis and his team recommend catalogs for Hipgnosis Songs Fund to purchase and try to generate more revenue from its portfolio. Hipgnosis Songs Fund itself is a lean organization – it has a board of directors and a team of outside accountants, attorneys and other specialists – that collects royalties, pay dividends and operates with minimal overhead. Investors shouldn’t expect the triple-digit returns of a fast-growing tech company, but they shouldn’t face much downside risk, either. Decades-old popular music in a growing industry is a stable investment.
Hipgnosis’ pitch became particularly attractive as low interest rates encouraged investors to pour money into alternative assets like music as central banks cut rates to encourage borrowing to help combat a recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. But central banks have hiked interest rates in 2022 to ward off rising inflation, and Hipgnosis and companies like it have seen their share prices fall sharply. An Oct. 27 report by Trust Intelligence posits that Hipgnosis, along with other alternative asset funds, “has seen a significant share price de-rating as investors worry about the potential for valuations to fall in a rising interest rate environment.” Shares of alternative asset managers Blackstone Group – an investor in Hipgnosis Songs Management – and Franklin Resources are down 31.8% and 21.5%, respectively, this year despite the companies’ earnings beating expectations last quarter. Other music companies are having a tough year, too. Shares of Round Hill Royalty Fund Ltd., another music-backed investment trust that trades on the London Stock Exchange, are down 24.9% year to date.
The underlying business underpinning the Hipgnosis catalog and others like it, however, seems as healthy as ever. Global publishing and label revenues climbed 18% to $39.6 billion in 2021 on the strength of streaming services such as Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube. In the U.S., music publishers will enjoy a slightly larger share of subscription revenue from 2023 to 2027. Music subscription prices are rising, too – Apple Music hiked its monthly fees in October and Spotify appears ready to follow in 2023. Social media and short-form video apps such as TikTok are increasingly valuable revenue streams for both publishers and labels. Hipgnosis’s pro-forma revenue – which compares catalogs on a like-for-like basis and ignores recent acquisitions – in the second half of 2021 rose 11.6% from the first half, which was impacted by COVID-19 restrictions that hurt physical sales and performance royalties. In its latest fiscal year ended March 31, catalog additions helped gross revenue grow 24.7% to $200.4 million.
With its stock trading at a large discount to the value of its catalog, though, the company is unable to raise additional equity to expand its catalog. It certainly had plans to do so: In January 2021, Hipgnosis shareholders voted 98.6% in favor of a plan to sell 1.5 billion new shares. At the planned price of $1.68 per share, those additional shares would have raised $2.52 billion. Since then, however, Hipgnosis has sold only 199.6 million shares at an average of 1.21 pounds per share ($1.46), for a total of 241.4 million pounds ($330 million). Money has continued to pour into other funds for music acquisitions: Primary Wave took a $1.7 billion investment from Brookfield Asset Management in October; Influence Media Partners teamed up with Warner Music Group and BlackRock Alternative Investors in July; and last year, KKR partnered with BMG and Apollo Global Management backed upstart HarbourView Equity Partners to the tune of $1 billion.
The share repurchase program could have tangible results: the repurchase of 1% of shares would add 0.5% to the net asset value per share, reduce the dividend payment and “be accretive to annual income by $57,000,” according to JP Morgan Cazenove analysts. Investors could also look elsewhere to gain some confidence. In September, Hipgnosis reiterated its target annual dividend of 5.25 pence (6.34 cents) per share and announced an interim dividend of 1.3125 pence ($1.59) per share. It has also made moves to save money. In July, it reached a deal with French collection society Sacem for reduced administration expenses and collection fees. In October it procured a new revolving credit facility with a lower cost of debt and completed interest rate swaps that provide a hedge against rising rates.
More dramatic steps are available to raise cash, too. JP Morgan Cazenove analysts suggested in an Oct. 24 report that the company could sell “non-core assets” such as the Kobalt fund — 42 catalogs of more than 33,000 songs — it bought in Nov. 2020 for $323 million. The analysts also suggest Hipgnosis could sell part of its catalog to Blackstone, which took an ownership stake in Mercuriadis’ song management operation in Oct. 2021 and provided $1 billion for catalog acquisitions. That would allow Hipgnosis to reduce its debt and free up capital to repurchase shares or invest in new catalogs. Or Hipgnosis Songs Management could seek funding from Blackstone to acquire the entire Hipgnosis Songs Fund portfolio. Another option not mentioned in the report is to sell Big Deal Music, the independent music publisher that Hipgnosis Songs Fund acquired in 2020 and rebranded as Hipgnosis Songs Group, and focus solely on managing its catalog instead of signing and developing songwriters.
Following years of headline-grabbing moves, this has been a relatively quiet one for the publicly traded Hipgnsosis Songs Fund — there have been no acquisitions and no capital raised through stock offerings in 2022. In contrast, the other side of the business, Hipgnosis Songs Management, purchased the catalogs of Kenny Chesney, Justin Timberlake and Leonard Cohen through its venture with Blackstone, Hipgnosis Songs Capital ICAV. In addition, in August Hipgnosis Songs Management raised $222 million from a securitization backed by the royalties of 950 songs from Timberlake, Cohen and others.
Glimpses of what comes next, and how else Mercuriadis plans to address the stock price, could come soon. Dec. 8, the final day of the share repurchase program, is also the day Hipgnosis will release mid-year financial results and host a Capital Markets Day.
Music business lawyers, songwriters, and other professionals gathered at the University of Georgia in Athens for the Artist Rights’ Symposium on Nov. 15. Hosted by senior lecturer, songwriter and member of band Cracker, Dr. David Lowery, the day-long conference discussed ways for the music industry to better champion songwriters, to address the problem of metadata inaccuracies, and to explain the differences in rate setting across different countries.
The series of panels was bisected by a lunch and fireside chat with Hipgnosis CEO and founder Merck Mercuriadis, moderated by attorney Chris Castle, who explained why he feels the industry is in the “age of the songwriter.” “There has been a massive paradigm shift,” he said. “Forty years ago, the power was in the artist brand,” but now, most songs that top the Billboard charts are written by a larger number of songwriters than ever, meaning the demand has never been higher for good hitmakers. “But songwriters have to have a place at the negotiating table now,” he said, citing that in the United States, rates for mechanicals are set by the government’s Copyright Royalty Board, barring “free market” negotiations. “Let’s face it, [the government controlling rates] is insulting to songwriters.”
Mercuriadis said he’s a supporter of the recent Phonorecords IV settlement, which set the U.S. mechanical streaming rates for 2023-2027, and was formed by the National Music Publishers’ Association (NMPA), the Digital Media Rights (DiMA) and Nashville Songwriters Association International (NSAI) banding together earlier this fall for “one main reason:” he believes it will provide the industry with stability for the next five year period. This would contrast the current five-year period (2018-2022), Phonorecords III, in which publishers, rights holders and songwriters have not had a clear idea of what rate they would be paid due to a lengthy appeals process that has tied up royalties.
He detailed an ambitious hope for the future, to “get out of the CRB in the next five years and into the free market.” Mercuriadis’ vision, he said, was inspired by the screenwriters guild — The Writers Guild of America — which has been able to secure fair compensation for those who create the scripts the industry is reliant on through advocation, unionization and bargaining with its titans of industry. Mercuriadis has certainly espoused his vision for a coalition of songwriters in the past and stood by that vision during his chat at the symposium, but he did not reveal many new details of his plans to build it.
“I have tremendous faith,” he said of it happening, despite the challenges and legal roadblocks he faces to achieve this scenario, adding that artists could be a major potential ally to songwriters getting what he thinks of as fair opportunities. As a leader in the catalog acquisition business, Hipgnosis has financial interests that overlap with songwriters regarding compensation rates.
Some panelists who flew in from Europe and South America for the event broadened the discussion beyond the U.S. borders. Crispin Hunt, the former chair of the U.K.’s Ivors Academy, explained how whatever rates are set in the U.S. often act as a benchmark for other countries during their respective negotiations with the same services. Also during the panel, Hunt added that he felt this was “an incredibly critical moment for songwriters,” as traditional offline broadcast income continues to fall and is replaced more with each coming year by digital.
Samantha Schilling of Songtradr brought her perspective from working in Brazil and with a mostly Latin American music business. She pointed out the differing standards that separate her business with that of the U.S. and how the two regions might learn from each other. For example, she said, while commonplace in the U.S., some Latin American countries prohibit work for hire agreements for songs written for TV/film. She said this helps songwriters maintain ownership and secure royalties on the backend. “That was put in place to protect songwriters,” Schilling noted. “Netflix tried to change it… but we were able to fight for songwriters to get that backend income.” In the U.S., some streaming video on demand (SVOD) companies are rumored to be asking songwriters to give up their backend royalties, a crucial component of income for those working at the intersection of music and visual media.
The day ended off with a discussion of the importance of metadata — which is often incomplete or incorrect, causing misallocation of songwriters’ royalties — and registering properly with the Mechanical Licensing Collective (MLC) to collect due compensation. Led by Abby North (North Music Group), Erin McAnally (Artists Rights Alliance), Helienne Lindvall (European Composer and Songwriter Alliance, Ivors Academy) and Melanie Santa Rosa (Word Collections, The MLC), the conversation harkened back to Hunt’s earlier point about the growing importance of digital income streams, which according to CISAC’s 2021 annual report, comprises of $3.62 billion to the worldwide music business, and how the industry can clean up its rocky start to collecting from these sources.
Universal Music Group, Hipgnosis Songs Fund and other music stocks got a much-needed boost on Tuesday (Oct. 25) following news of Apple Music’s price hike, as investors bet it would trigger a wave of streaming subscription cost increases.
Universal Music Group’s stock closed 11.6% higher, Hipgnosis Songs Fund Ltd ended up 7.8% and Korean music companies SM Entertainment and HYBE finished the trading day 4.8% and 4.4% higher, respectfully, on Tuesday. On Monday, Apple announced that it was raising the standard U.S. and U.K. individual plan price to $10.99 from $9.99.
This 10% price hike — Apple’s first — comes amid high inflation and a darkening economic environment in many global markets. If Apple can raise prices at a time like this, that is a sign the music industry can charge more without turning off consumers, Wall Street analysts said.
“We see this as a further signal of the stickiness of music streaming subscriptions even in a weaker macro environment and believe the major markets will be able to absorb higher prices without leading to meaningfully higher churn,” Lisa Yang, Goldman Sachs’s head of European media & internet technology equity research, wrote in a note to investors on Tuesday.
“We believe that other major DSPs will likely follow suit with similar price increases in the near future, implying further potential upside to our music industry forecasts.”
Competitors Spotify and Amazon Music have already raised prices in some markets. Amazon Music raised the price of its unlimited individual plan for Prime members to $8.99 from $7.99 earlier this year.
Spotify, which will report earnings later Tuesday, raised the cost of its individual plans in the Nordics in 2021, although its standard plan for U.S. subscribers remains at $9.99.
“Despite positive management commentary around churn (with regards to recent price increases on certain plans/regions) as well as management’s views on pricing power over the long term, Spotify has highlighted the broader macro environment as a key consideration in terms of implementing price increases in the near term,” Yang wrote.
Apple’s price increase could also have positive impacts on the majors because companies like UMG and Warner Music Group typically get 65% of music-related revenues from streaming companies with a “high incremental margin,” Goldman estimates.
Music stocks have suffered in 2022 as the major U.S. market indices have fallen around 20% so far this year.
UMG’s share price of 21.10 EUR ($21.01 US) is down nearly 14% year to date, Hipngosis Songs Fund Ltd traded at 91.06 penny sterling ($1.03 US) and is down 28% so far this year. Meanwhile, Warner Music Group’s stock traded at $27.16 US, off almost 37% year to date.
