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It’s been a hell of a year for singer-songwriter Gracie Abrams, who’s made the jump from acclaimed cult favorite to pop hitmaker — and perhaps just straight-up pop star.

Abrams, who undoubtedly received a boast from her opening slot on the biggest tour in modern pop history, scored a career-best ranking on the Billboard 200 this summer when her The Secret of Us debuted at No. 2, with tracks “Close to You,” “Risk” and the Taylor Swift-assisted “Us” all hitting the Billboard Hot 100. A few months after, the album’s “I Love You, I’m Sorry” went viral on TikTok, ultimately reaching the Hot 100’s top 20. And now “That’s So True,” a bonus track from the Secret deluxe edition, has bested them all, jumping from No. 13-6 this week to become Abrams’ first-ever Hot 100 top 10 hit.

What’s been responsible for Abrams’ recent surge of momentum? And what kind of chances does the song have of heading off Shaboozey’s historic “A Bar Song” run at No. 1?

1. A few weeks after being released as a bonus track on the deluxe The Secret of Us “That’s So True” rides serious streaming momentum this week to become Gracie Abrams’ first top 10 hit. What do you think it is about this song that’s helped her reach new chart heights that not even the singles off Secret could reach?

Katie Atkinson: There are so many reasons I personally love this song. There’s the ’90s vibes (this could have had such a huge Pacey/Joey moment on a Dawson’s Creek mid-season finale). There’s the lyrics that are somehow both uber confident and self-conscious. There’s the under-three-minute runtime that never ceases to convince me to immediately run the song back as soon as it’s finished. There’s that great songwriter trick of writing about something so specific that it somehow ends up feeling universal. And there’s that epic bridge that must make Gracie’s Eras Tour-mate feel like a proud parent. Mostly, it’s just a great song that begs for repeat listens, and streaming is there to make that easier than ever.

Kyle Denis: In addition to being a song filled with accessible, relatable lyrics and a vocal affect that recalls the best of Taylor Swift and Lorde’s conversational approach to pop singing, “That’s So True” is a prime case study in momentum. Arriving as the fourth overall single from The Secret of Us, “That’s So True” automatically has the biggest potential audience out of all the album’s singles because it can build on their success. Each Secret of Us single has reached a higher Hot 100 peak than the last. When you couple that with the incomparable platform that is being an opener for the final leg of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, all the pieces were perfectly placed for “That’s So True” to become Abrams’ biggest chart hit yet.

Rylee Johnston: What really helped with the momentum of the song is the way she teased her fans with the song during live performances before it was ever released. She was able to drum up excitement and build an anticipation of “when is she going to drop the song?” Once she released the deluxe version of her album, it made sense that her fans would be eager to stream and listen to it repeatedly. 

Jason Lipshutz: “That’s So True” crystallizes Gracie Abrams’ songwriting appeal, and arrived at a time when her momentum allowed for a fast-moving top 10 hit. Abrams’ aesthetic took a massive leap between last year’s Good Riddance and this year’s The Secret of Us, and “That’s So True” features both her most immediate hooks and a more defined point of view than past singles — you get the sense that no one else could deliver it quite like Abrams. Combined with the upward trajectory of her live audiences and streaming numbers, “That’s So True” was primed to be a breakthrough hit.

Andrew Unterberger: It just feels like her strongest song yet. It helps that audiences are more familiar with Abrams now and the hallmarks of her singing and songwriting, so a new song feels like a natural fit in our lives, but there’s a reason this song took off more than any of the other newly released tracks off the deluxe Secret of Us — it’s classic enough to feel recognizable right away, regardless of our Abrams familiarity level.

2. Though this is her first top 10 hit, obviously Abrams has been rising for some time now, with “I Love You, I’m Sorry” even reaching the top 20 recently. What is the biggest reason for her surge in 2024 momentum, do you think?

Katie Atkinson: Of course her placement on Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour was incredibly impactful for building a fanbase, but then Abrams put out her best work yet with The Secret of Us and was able to immediately capitalize on all that newfound interest. Just like Sabrina Carpenter before her, the Eras Tour opening slot puts you in front of more eyeballs then ever before, but you have to have the excellent music to back it up

Kyle Denis: Most of Abrams’ 2024 momentum can be credited to moves she made the year prior. She spent most of 2023 playing stadiums on the Eras Tour, which granted her the chance to win over the tens of thousands of fans that packed out those venues each night. Given the similarity of her music to Swift’s, that wasn’t too difficult of a feat for her to pull off. The tail-end of 2023 also found Abrams linking with Noah Kahan – one of that year’s biggest breakout stars – for “Everywhere, Everything,” which helped her snag her very first Hot 100 entry, building off the early momentum she earned with her debut LP at the start of the year. All she needed was one undeniable single to reach the next level of pop stardom.

Rylee Johnston: The Eras tour has definitely helped Abrams in gathering a larger audience and I’m sure her time as an opener has come with some advice from Taylor Swift. At the scale that the Eras tour is at, she’s able to test things out and play her music to thousands of people across the globe, while picking up new fans along the way who may not have heard of her beforehand. 

Jason Lipshutz: Earning a best new artist Grammy nod, opening for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and headlining her own shows obviously helped increase Abrams’ profile — but simply put, these songs are stronger, more distinct and revealing of Abrams’ perspective than those on her debut. While “I Love You, I’m Sorry” became a viral hit and “That’s So True” a deluxe-edition smash, The Secret of Us tracks like “Risk,” “Close to You” and the Swift collaboration “Us” boast top-notch pop craft, and have each earned hundreds of millions of streams. After a promising debut that yielded a bigger platform, Abrams delivered a great sophomore LP, and is reaping the benefits now.

Andrew Unterberger: This is sorta facile to say, but I think artists like Abrams — who have a strong writing voice and an already devoted fanbase — reach a tipping point of mainstream popularity where the world just kinda opens to them. Maybe Eras got her through the door, maybe she woulda gotten there anyway, but she’s in the building now, and she’s just gonna keep elevating to higher floors from here.

3. Most of the talk about the breakout pop stars of 2024 has centered around Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan — is it time to start including Abrams in that conversation, do you think, or is she still to early in her development for that?

Katie Atkinson: It’s definitely time. Abrams has had a different trajectory than those two examples – most notably, she was nominated for best new artist at the Grammys earlier this year, whereas Roan and Carpenter are facing off in that category at the 2025 ceremony. She might be one hit away from truly reaching the spot Sabrina and Chappell now occupy, so maybe 2025 will be even bigger for Gracie.

Kyle Denis: I think it’s too early. I’m happy to have that conversation next year, but until Abrams is pulling festival crowds the size of the one Chappell pulled at Lollapalooza – or simultaneously three solo songs from the same album in the Hot 100’s top ten for multiple weeks à la Sabrina, for that matter – we can pump the brakes.

Rylee Johnston: I don’t think she’s far off, but she’s still new to this level of the industry and I think she’s still taking time to hone and perfect her craft. That’s not to say it isn’t coming anytime soon though: Give it a year or two and I bet we will see Abrams at their level. 

Jason Lipshutz: It’s absolutely time to include Abrams, because, like Carpenter and Roan, her rise has been defined by more than one song. If Abrams had simply scored a single modest hit from The Secret of Us, then I’d be a little more dubious about the reach of her stardom — but “That’s So True” is a top 10 hit, “I Love You, I’m Sorry” is a fan favorite turned viral smash, and her Taylor Swift team-up is nominated for a Grammy. Maybe Carpenter or Roan could command bigger audiences at this moment, but this isn’t a competition; all three artists deserve to be recognized for a breakout 2024 that has set up years-long runs for each of them.

Andrew Unterberger: If it’s not time yet, it will be by the end of the year, or next January / February at the latest. She’s done it a little slower and more quietly than Roan and Carpenter, but what she’s building is just as real and sustainable — and we’ll see the fruits of it on her next album, if not earlier.

4. How much bigger do you think “That’s So True” can still get from here? Will we see it unseat Shaboozey from No. 1 before the Christmas rush takes over?

Katie Atkinson: Between Shaboozey and Christmas, I don’t know if “That’s So True” will have the juice to get all the way to No. 1. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it climbs higher in the top five over the next few weeks, as curiosity (and airplay) grow. This is the kind of song that could kick around the top 10 for a very long time.

Kyle Denis: “That’s So True” is in a tough spot because while I believe it has a lot of room to grow, the song will almost certainly be kneecapped by the incoming surge of holiday songs and year-end hoopla. If it doesn’t unseat “A Bar Song” next week, I fear Mariah will enter the ring as her second major opponent the following week. 

Rylee Johnston: It’s tough, “A Bar Song” has lasted a historic run and has held strong even against major contenders like Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Swift and Carpenter. I’d personally love to see it happen, but I think Shaboozey may continue his reign on top until the holidays. I don’t think she’s stopped climbing though, I just don’t think it has enough power with this much time left of the year to reach No. 1. 

Jason Lipshutz: If we had another month before the holiday onslaught, then I’d say probably — but really, we’ve got a week or so before Mariah, Brenda and Burl come for us all. Unless “That’s So True” can blast to the top of the Hot 100 before the calendar flips to December, I’d say that its best chance at hitting No. 1 will be in mid-January, if its momentum can keep up for a few months.

Andrew Unterberger: I think if it gets to No. 1 it won’t be until comfortably into next year. It’s gonna need some major radio help, and radio is still too busy testing the waters with the couple Abrams singles before this (“Close” and “Sorry”) to give this song the attention it probably deserves. It’s just a question of if the song’s streaming and cultural power remains potent enough to force radio to shift attention to it — and if it can maintain that streaming hold for long enough to take advantage of it finally spreading across the airwaves.

5. Abrams has a major platform still at her disposal for another few weeks in her opening role on the Eras Tour. If you were on her team, what (if anything) would you advise Abrams to do in her final concerts to potentially drive additional interest in the song?

Katie Atkinson: She still has the music video in her back pocket, and even if she doesn’t unveil the video during her Eras Tour set (it doesn’t seem likely she would do that on Taylor’s stage), the mere mention that a video exists onstage could go a very long way.

Kyle Denis: Right now, I encourage her to keep doing what she’s doing. Continue using different versions of the song’s sound on TikTok and letting it reach people organically. It’s still early in the song’s run, so pulling out the big guns is probably unwise. But once January rolls around, start fielding possible remix options. I’d love to hear Clairo or Maggie Rogers on this, but maybe we should go with a more unexpected pick like Rachel Chinouriri or Faye Webster? Something tells me that this isn’t the kind of song that needs an A-lister remix to reach its full potential. 

Rylee Johnston: The ultimate tactic would be another duet with Swift, but if that’s not as easy to execute, then coming up with another viral moment is key to keeping her song relevant. Whether she takes a page from the “Fortnight” singer and changes a lyric in the song or mashes it up with another song, those are just a few things that can drum up further excitement. 

Jason Lipshutz: Maybe the official music video premieres live during Abrams’ final opening set of the Eras tour? Yet if the goal is a shot at No. 1, I’d drop the visual on Jan. 1, 2025 — start off the new year but making an end-of-2024 smash even bigger, at a moment when the holiday music is being stored away for another year.

Andrew Unterberger: With the song’s “Smiling through it all, yeah, that’s my life” lyrics referencing one of LeBron James’ most iconic social media moments, how about getting the King to show up to one of the remaining Toronto dates to provide a guest verse or some backing harmonies on it or something? Are the Lakers playing the Raptors any time in the next week?