The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 16), the last four singles to top the Billboard Hot 100 have all been led by country artists – and white guys – but both streaks may be coming to an end with the rise of a returning pop-rap star’s latest.
Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): It feels almost quaint in 2023: A big pop release that makes a solid debut, and climbs from there. Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red” entered at a good-not-great No. 15 on the Hot 100 in August, but it has only grown since then, jumping into the top five last week and hitting a new peak of No. 3 this week. With the song still gaining on all three Hot 100 component charts – Streaming Songs (up 3-2 this week), Digital Song Sales (11-6) and Radio Songs (24-17) — it should be a threat to take the top spot on next week’s chart.
If it does, it will be notable for reasons beyond becoming Doja Cat’s second career Hot 100-topper, following 2020’s “Say So” featuring Nicki Minaj. It would be the first non-country No. 1 on the chart since Jung Kook’s Latto-featuring “Seven” debuted atop the chart dated July 29, seven weeks earlier. In the time since, a record four consecutive country songs (defined as songs deemed eligible for Billboard’s Hot Country Songs ranking) have claimed the top spot: Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night,” Jason Aldean’s “Try That in a Small Town,” Oliver Anthony Music’s “Rich Men North of Richmond,” and this week’s new No. 1, Zach Bryan’s “I Remember Everything,” featuring Kacey Musgraves.
A much longer streak would also be ended if “Paint the Town Red” hits No. 1: It’s now been 55 weeks since a rap song last ruled the Hot 100 (“Super Freaky Girl,” by Doja Cat’s “Say So” co-star Nicki Minaj), the longest such run since the turn of the century. While Doja’s rap bona fides have long been the subject of (often ridiculous) internet debate as she crosses further into the top 40 world, “Paint” has scaled Billboard’s Hot Rap Songs chart – currently sitting at No. 1 there for a second week – meaning the genre’s Hot 100 drought may soon be over.
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Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything” (Belting Bronco/Warner): The No. 1 debut that few saw coming last week should not be due for a particularly huge drop off in its second week. Zach Bryan‘s “I Remember Everything,” featuring Kacey Musgraves, has been holding fairly strong on both streaming (still No. 1 on Apple Music’s daily charts and No. 2 on Spotify) and sales (in the top five on iTunes) — and without any major debuts or gainers (aside from Doja) coming from behind it, it should still be in contention for one of the Hot 100’s top few spots this week.
The question for “Everything” will be how much radio embraces it. Bryan’s American Heartbreak Hot 100 top 10 hit “Something in the Orange” ultimately elbowed its way into the top 20 on Country Airplay, but Bryan’s stardom has mostly come independently of radio and the Nashville machine, and it’s not clear yet if “I Remember Everything” will prove an exception. So far, the song is nearing the Country Airplay chart, with 272,000 audience impressions at the format Sept. 1-4, according to Luminate, up from 175,000 in its entire first week.
Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): It’s probably an overstatement to say that you have to feel for Luke Combs – when he first decided to cover Tracy Chapman’s alt-folk classic “Fast Car,” he probably never expected to get anywhere near the top spot of the Hot 100 with it. At this point, though, the song has now spent eight weeks idling at No. 2, while seemingly every other male country singer-songwriter speeds just ahead of him – and it’s starting to look like it might not ever get there himself.
“Fast Car” does finally lead the Radio Songs chart this week – Combs’ first No. 1 on that listing – while still hanging in the top 10 of Digital Song Sales and Streaming Songs. But “Car” seems to have stalled on all three component charts, so if Doja zooms by it this week, it might be tough for it to catch up again.
IN THE MIX
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Labor Day Weekend came and went without any final promotional efforts for Taylor Swift’s “Cruel Summer,” which remains at No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week, after reaching No. 3, but is nearing its peak at radio and might not be able to hold in streaming and sales to remain a true No. 1 contender for much longer. All that remains now is the potential boost from the already blockbuster-certified Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour movie – but with that film not due still for over a month, it’s likely that “Summer” will have cooled off too much by then anyway.
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Nicki Minaj, “Last Time I Saw You” (Young Money/Republic): Speaking of Minaj: It’s likely that she will have the week’s best Hot 100 bow with her much-hyped new single “Last Time I Saw You.” The song got off to a typically strong start in sales and streaming upon its Friday (Sept. 1) debut, but has already faded pretty quickly on the daily Spotify and Apple charts. Given the song’s top 40-friendly crossover sound, though, it might not be too long before radio starts picking up the slack there.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 9), Zach Bryan and Kacey Musgraves’ new duet challenges Oliver Anthony Music’s reign at No. 1 – but they’re far from the only ones in the hunt.
Zach Bryan feat. Kacey Musgraves, “I Remember Everything” (Belting Bronco/Warner): It’s nothing but good news for Americana sensation Zach Bryan these days. His self-titled, self-produced new album debuted on Friday (Aug. 25) to dynamite streaming numbers and strong reviews — with a debut atop the Billboard 200 albums chart likely within its sights — and this week, he announced a 2024 arenas-and-stadiums tour featuring veteran luminaries Jason Isbell and Sheryl Crow among the opening acts. Next week, he might be on deck for another career first: A Billboard Hot 100 No. 1.
The album’s “I Remember Everything,” featuring the Grammy-beloved Kacey Musgraves, has led the daily charts on both Spotify and Apple Music since its Friday release, and has also climbed into the top five on the iTunes chart. As is typical of brand-new songs – particularly from format-ambiguous artists like Bryan – radio support thus far has been minimal, but with its streaming and sales numbers both so high and so steady, it might not need much airplay help to mount a serious charge for the No. 1 spot.
Even if it doesn’t get there, it should still easily notch a new career high peak for both Bryan (who hit No. 10 earlier this year with “Something in the Orange”) and Musgraves, whose previous best on the Hot 100 was the modest No. 60 success of “Follow Your Arrow” in 2014. (Miranda Lambert’s “Mama’s Broken Heart,” co-written by Musgraves and featuring her on backing vocals, hit No. 20 the year before.)
Oliver Anthony Music, “Rich Men North of Richmond” (Self-Released): Oliver Anthony dismissed any notion of one-week-wonderdom this week by sticking atop the Hot 100 for a second frame, while also topping the Streaming Songs chart for the first time. He’s still pulling strong numbers on streaming (albeit not as strong as “Remember”) and still hanging atop the iTunes sales chart – but with numbers less sky-high than the tens of thousands he sold daily in the single’s debut week.
The song’s performance is steady enough that a fall out of the top 20 (like Jason Aldean had with his similarly sales-boosted No. 1 “Try That in a Small Town” a few weeks earlier) is unlikely. But unless “Richmond” can catch a second wind in its virality to turn its sagging numbers around, its reign atop the chart is certainly vulnerable.
Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): Will it ever be Luke Combs’ time? The carousel of male country singers atop the Hot 100 this summer has seen Morgan Wallen, Jason Aldean and Oliver Anthony Music all take their turns – but Combs has been stuck at No. 2 for much of that time, spending its seventh nonconsecutive frame in the runner-up spot this week. Now, he risks getting lapped a fourth time — as Bryan’s new single is on pace to comfortably lead his in streams, and may pass him in sales as well.
However, Combs is sure to have a major lead in one factor: airplay. His “Fast Car” continues to gain on Pop Airplay, moving 9-8 on the chart this week, while holding strong at No. 2 on the all-format Radio Songs chart; it’s also still top five on Country Airplay, after ruling for five frames. If his song continues to gain there while holding strong enough in streaming and sales, it might be able to fend off the advances of Bryan and Musgraves – or challenge them again the week after.
IN THE MIX
Doja Cat, “Paint the Town Red” (Kemosabe/RCA): Among all the bearded white guys with guitars, pop and rap luminary Doja Cat is elbowing her way into the mix with new hit “Paint the Town Red.” The song jumps from 15-5 on the latest Hot 100, with major gains in streams, airplay and sales – with the former two carrying into this tracking week. If its velocity keeps up, it should be in contention to become Doja’s second No. 1 before too long – possibly as soon as next week, though she still has a sizable gap to close first.
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Seemingly all summer, Swifties have awaited their fearless leader making the final move — a music video, a new remix, something totally unexpected — to put “Cruel Summer” over the top on the Hot 100. It hasn’t arrived yet, though the song is still hanging strong at No. 4 on the chart, after reaching No. 3 and continuing to gain in airplay, still in range of the top spot should it get that one final big boost. But Swift’s window may be closing: The top of the Hot 100 is getting more crowded every week, and Labor Day is just around the corner.
Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Remember this one? Wallen’s 16-week Hot 100 conqueror has spent two weeks outside of the top spot now, but it’s hanging on at No. 3 on the chart, and still ranks in the top 10 on Digital Song Sales, Streaming Songs and Radio Songs. Plus, it’s spent multiple weeks outside the top spot and then rebounded to the summit twice already in the course of its nearly six-month chart run. Don’t assume it’s dead until you actually see the carcass.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Sept. 2), Travis Scott goes for his fourth week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart with his massive Utopia, while Hozier looks to earn his second consecutive debut atop the chart with new effort Unreal Unearth.
Travis Scott, Utopia (Catcus Jack/Epic): It’s been three weeks, and Travis Scott is still not only ruling the Billboard 200 with his Utopia, the album posted a whopping 185,000 units in its latest frame – with a mighty 99,000 in sales, an very high number for an album in its third week out, and a 169% gain from the week before. The sales boost probably comes from his webstore (limited time) discount on the double-LP set from $50 to $5, resulting in 93,000 in vinyl sales last week – the biggest vinyl sales performance for a hip-hop or R&B album since Luminate began tracking sales in 1991.
Scott’s sales are expected to stay strong – likely helped by another discount code, released and circulated among fans in time to impact this chart week — along with its streaming numbers, with four songs from the album still in the top 25 of Billboard’s Streaming Songs chart. The combination of sales and streams should make it tough to depose this week, without a new contender expected to put up particularly big numbers in both categories, and Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – still No. 2 on the chart this week, after 15 weeks at No. 1 – no longer posting units in the six digits.
Hozier, Unreal Unearth (Rubyworks/Island/Columbia): Despite not scoring a major crossover hit since his No. 2-peaking Billboard Hot 100 smash “Take Me to Church” in 2014 – and only releasing one new album during the rest of the 2010s — Irish singer-songwriter Hozier has maintained both a devoted following and a major chart impact. His sophomore album, 2019’s Wasteland, Baby!, debuted atop the Billboard 200, while his 2023 single “Eat Your Young” debuted at No. 67 on the Hot 100.
That song is on Hozier’s third album, Unreal Unearth, released on Aug. 18, and available on both CD and vinyl (including exclusive signed editions of both, already sold out on his webstore). The album is Hozier’s biggest-sounding to date, and will be supported by an upcoming U.S. tour that sees him playing some of the largest venues of his career. However, the kind of ticket bundles that helped power Wasteland to No. 1 won’t count towards the totals for Unearth, since Billboard changed its bundling rules in July 2020 – making it that much tougher to catch Utopia.
J-Hope, Jack in the Box (Big Hit): The 10-track debut from BTS alum J-Hope has already appeared in the top 20 on the Billboard 200, entering at No. 17 in July 2022. But Jack in the Box is due to re-enter the chart next week – likely at a higher peak – thanks to the CD release of its deluxe HOPE Edition. The reissue, which makes for the first time the set will be released on CD, contains five bonus tracks (including a pair of instrumental versions of Jack tracks and a trio of live versions from J-Hope’s 2022 Lollapalooza set), as well as a photo and lyric book, sticker packs and more collectible goodies.
IN THE MIX
Jihyo, Zone (JYP/Republic): J-Hope isn’t the only member of a massive K-pop group likely to impact the Billboard 200 this week: Jihyo, of star nonet TWICE, released her solo debut set on Friday with the seven-track EP Zone. While the EP is not expected to score major streaming numbers, it should sell well – helped by the sale of three versions of the mini-album (“Z,” “Y” and “O”) on JYP’s webstore, dispatched at random per each order, and each containing different collectible elements (like lyric books, posters and bookmarks).
Russ, Santiago (Diemon/Columbia): After breaking through in the late ‘10s with hits like “What They Want” and “Losin Control,” Russ has kept up a steady chart presence, hitting the Billboard 200’s top five with both 2018’s Zoo and 2020’s Shake the Snow Globe. The rapper/singer looks to make it three in a row next week with latest album Santiago – though the set features no Hot 100 hits or star features, with its only guest appearances coming from cult Bay Area rapper Rexx Life Raj and acclaimed singer-songwriter Bibi Bourelly.
Quavo, Rocket Power (Capitol/Motown/Quality Control): The Migos rapper’s first album since the death of groupmate (and nephew) Takeoff may not sell as well as this week’s other big releases, since a physical release is not yet available. But it should put up pretty respectable streaming numbers for its 18 tracks, including Hot 100 hit “Turn Your Clic Up” (featuring Future), multiple cuts featuring the late Takeoff, and several more paying tribute to the hip-hop great.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated August 26), Wallen’s “Last Night” is just three more weeks at No. 1 from tying the Billboard Hot 100’s all-time record – but his position is growing more precarious, thanks to growing hits from Luke Combs and Taylor Swift, and a runaway viral hit from Oliver Anthony Music.
Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen secured his 16th week at No. 1 this week (chart dated Aug. 19) with “Last Night,” moving the song into a three-way tie with Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” for the second-longest reign atop the Hot 100 in chart history, and the longest for any unaccompanied artist. From there, it’s just three weeks away from matching “Old Town Road” (by Lil Nas X featuring Billy Ray Cyrus; 19 weeks in 2019) for the all-time mark.
However, “Last Night” continues to slip in its footing, as the song again falls in all three chart factors this week – down 11% to 59.6 million radio airplay audience impressions, down 2% to 26.3 million streams and down 22% to 5,000 downloads in the Aug. 4-10 tracking week, according to Luminate. Its numbers are still impressive – and it even rebounds to No. 1 on Streaming Songs this week, with Travis Scott’s Utopia song entries receding in their second frame – but it’s no longer totally out of reach for the songs beneath it.
Oliver Anthony Music, “Rich Men North of Richmond” (DistroKid): Two weeks ago, you might not have heard of West Virginia singer-songwriter Oliver Anthony, but chances are pretty good he’s made your radar since, as his “Rich Men North of Richmond” has taken off with a velocity rarely seen for new artists. After going viral on social media and earning endorsements from conservative-leaning public figures such as Matt Walsh, Laura Ingraham and John Rich – as well as backlash from prominent critics who view its pro-working class but anti-welfare message as hypocritical and problematic – the song has improbably launched itself into the crowded race for the Hot 100’s No. 1 spot.
“Rich Men,” which is officially credited to Oliver Anthony Music, jumped to the top of the iTunes chart on Friday, and since officially arriving on streaming services over the weekend, has risen to the top three on both Spotify and Apple Music’s daily tallies. Though its radio play is minimal, if its sales and streams totals stay that robust, Anthony’s breakout hit will certainly be a contender to topple “Last Night” at No. 1 – and as debate over the song and its creator continues rising to a fever pitch, it’s unlikely to fall off anytime too soon.
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): A rising tide lifts all boats, and the good ship “Cruel Summer” has benefited over and over again from spikes of interest in Taylor Swift the past few months. Most recently, it’s been the (temporary) end of her Eras Tour – which wrapped up the final U.S. dates of this current leg in Los Angeles last Wednesday (Aug. 9) — and the concurrent announcement of her upcoming 1989 (Taylor’s Version) that have once again sent Swifties scurrying to streaming services.
“Cruel Summer” doesn’t come from 1989 – rather, from Lover, two albums later, in 2019 – but it doesn’t seem to matter much: Swift’s streams are up across her whole catalog, and “Summer” in particular has been rising, topping Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for the first time on Monday (Aug. 14). Fans also perhaps seem to sense that the song is within reach of No. 1, as sales of “Summer” rose 85% last week to 7,000.
With airplay also still growing – the song climbs 5-3 on Radio Songs this week – “Summer” is currently performing at its peak so far. Whether it will be enough to both pass a fading “Last Night” and fend off a surging “Rich Men North of Richmond” remains to be seen.
Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): Prior to the debut of “Rich Men,” Combs’ Tracy Chapman cover seemed to have the inside track for the No. 1 spot, as the song right below “Last Night” on the Hot 100 since the beginning of July. Perhaps sensing that the top spot was now within its grasp, Combs’ team released the official live version of “Fast Car” — previously available only as a YouTube video – to all streaming services on Friday (Aug. 11).
Will it still have a chance to reach No. 1 next week? Potentially, but its numbers have also been trending in the wrong direction, with both its streams and sales declining last week – though its airplay continues to rise, with the song hitting the Pop Airplay top 10 for the first time. It will need another big jump in airplay, as well as a rebound in streams and possibly sales, to have a real chance of becoming Combs’ first No. 1 next week.
IN THE MIX
Olivia Rodrigo, “Bad Idea Right?” (Geffen/Interscope): In a less-packed week, we might be talking about the second single from Olivia Rodrigo’s upcoming album Guts – which debuted on Friday — as more of a contender for the top spot, as the song ranked No. 1 on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart for most of the week. But “Bad Idea Right?” has already started to fade a little on streaming, hasn’t yet been officially promoted to radio and isn’t selling as well as predecessor (and radio focus track) “Vampire” — without the CD release that single had – so it will likely have to settle for being the Hot 100’s second-highest debut this week.
Barbie: The Album (Mattel/Water Tower/Atlantic): As the phenomenon that is Barbie continues to envelop the globe, it has also swept through the Hot 100, with three of its singles occupying spots in this week’s top 15: Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night” (No. 7), Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s Aqua-featuring “Barbie World” (No. 8) and Billie Eilish’s “What Was I Made For?” (No. 14). None of them are necessarily on pace to mount a true charge for the top, as the set’s streaming growth has finally stalled in its fourth week, but airplay may still give the songs an extra boost – particularly “Barbie World,” which zooms 33-21 on this week’s Radio Songs chart.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Aug. 19), Morgan Wallen is four weeks from making Billboard Hot 100 history – but may not get there, if Luke Combs, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo or other rising hitmakers have anything to say about it.
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Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen’s first Hot 100 No. 1 – and a rare country No. 1 with no co-lead artists or obvious pop crossover attempt (though it has still become a top five hit at pop and adult radio) – has slowly but surely elbowed its way into the Billboard record books. With its 15th week at No. 1 (on the Hot 100 dated Aug. 12), “Last Night” ties Harry Styles’ “As It Was” (2022) for both the longest-leading No. 1 of the 2020s, and the longest in the Hot 100’s now-65-year history from an unaccompanied artist.
Next in its sights: 16 weeks and a tie for the second-longest run atop the Hot 100, alongside Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” (1995-96) and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” (2017). After that, only one song stands between it and all-time Hot 100 No. 1 supremacy: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which held on top for a record-breaking 19 weeks in 2019.
Unlike “Old Town Road,” which Lil Nas X worked tirelessly to push to No. 1 and keep there – with a succession of music videos, remixes, high-profile live performances and social media memes – Wallen has leaned almost all the way back for “Last Night,” doing remarkably little public promotion outside of the One Night at a Time World Tour that he’s been on since March. Rather, its reign has been more reminiscent of Styles’ 2022 run at No. 1, where the song’s performance simply held across all categories (streams, sales and radio airplay) both strong enough and long enough to essentially serve as the default Hot 100-topper anytime there wasn’t a major new release.
But how long and how strong is it still holding after 15 weeks at No. 1 (and 27 weeks total on the chart)? There are finally real signs of slippage, as the song falls on each of the Streaming Songs (from No. 1 to No. 3), Digital Song Sales (6-7) and Radio Songs (2-4) charts this week. The door is creaking open, but another song will still have to charge through – and as of this week, “Last Night” remains the only hit in the top 10 of all three charts.
Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): The most immediate threat to “Last Night” would have to be the song that’s landed exactly one spot below it on the Hot 100 every week since July 1. Luke Combs‘ “Fast Car” is actually leading “Last Night” on both Digital Song Sales (steady at No. 4 this week) and Radio Songs (climbing 3-2), though it still trails it significantly on Streaming Songs (No. 11, buried under an avalanche of Travis Scott debuts).
The big question for “Fast Car” is if it can gain enough on “Last Night” on radio – the only metric where either song is still growing – to make up for its streaming shortfall. While it’s already had a five-week run at No. 1 on Country Airplay, finally replaced on top this week by Jelly Roll’s “Need a Favor,” it still has room to grow on top 40 radio, with the song inching up 13-12 on the Pop Airplay listing this week; it also hits No. 1 on Adult Pop Airplay, while pushing 8-7 on Adult Contemporary. If it continues to grow steadily there, while staying level on streaming, it may close the gap enough with “Last Night” in the next couple of weeks.
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Swift already came close to unseating Wallen earlier this summer, when her Midnights single “Karma” shot to No. 2 (largely thanks to a boost from a new Ice Spice-featuring remix), but could not quite depose “Last Night.” Now she should have another shot – not with a new song, but an older one: “Cruel Summer,” a former deep cut from her 2019 album Lover, which has ridden a wave of fan fervor and seasonal momentum (as well as official label promotion) to become a hit, and reaches a new peak of No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week.
The story with “Cruel Summer” is similar to that of “Fast Car”: “Last Night” has a sizable edge on streaming (“Summer” ranks just No. 19 on Streaming Songs this week), but is starting to fade on radio while “Summer” surges. And “Summer” is really starting to swelter on the airwaves: It became Swift’s record-setting 12th No. 1 on Pop Airplay last week, and breaks the top five on Radio Songs this week in just its seventh frame on the chart. If its velocity keeps up, it may pass both Combs’ and Wallen’s hits in due time, and could be in the hunt for No. 1 shortly after.
An interesting wrinkle in this three-way race: None of these songs have proper music videos or remixes yet on streaming services. This is essentially par for the course for Wallen (who has not historically leaned on remixes or made a music video since last summer’s “You Proof”), and outside of a recently released live clip, Combs has taken a mostly hands-off approach to promoting his “Fast Car” cover, which he did not originally intend to be a single. Swift has extensive recent history of both official videos and remixes, though – albeit only for Midnights singles, so there’s no precedent for her to pull those levers for an older song. If she does so, though, it could give “Summer” the extra heat it needs to get over the top.
IN THE MIX
Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): Morgan Wallen may have the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100 this week, but otherwise the chart belongs to Travis Scott: All 19 tracks from his July album Utopia debut this week, led by the Drake-featuring “Meltdown” (No. 3) and the Playboi Carti-featuring “FE!N,” while “K-POP,” with Bad Bunny and The Weeknd, is already a rising radio hit. Those tracks will likely lose some ground in streaming next week, but if one of them (or any of the other 17) begins to catch some viral heat, Scott certainly has the streaming juice to become a factor: He’s topped the Hot 100 four times already, including with previous album Astroworld’s breakout single “Sicko Mode.”
Gunna, “fukumean” (YSL/300): While 2023 has been short on breakout hip-hop hits, “fukumean” has been a notable exception since its July release, as part of Gunna’s A Gift & A Curse album. The TikTok-boosted smash has gotten as high as No. 4 on the Hot 100 – it slips to No. 7 this week – but it continues to perform exceptionally on streaming, and is starting to find its footing on radio, surging 28-20 on R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay. If top 40 – which has never been particularly kind to Gunna – decides to give the song (and its radio-unfriendly hook, at least in unedited form) a real chance, he could force his way into the top three before long.
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” and “Bad Idea Right” (Geffen): Rodrigo’s lead single from her much-anticipated upcoming sophomore album Guts, “Vampire” actually did already debut at No. 1, but slid in subsequent weeks as first-week streams and (especially) sales declined. The song is still hanging around the lower reaches of the top 10, though– with airplay rapidly picking up (13-11 on Radio Songs this week) – and it may soon be joined in the top tier by new single “Bad Idea Right,” which is due this Friday, and very likely to extend her streak of top 10 Hot 100 debuts.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated August 5), Travis Scott could score the biggest debut for a rap album in 2023 so far with his first album in five years.
Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): There must have been a little anxiety in the Travis Scott camp as he geared up for July’s Utopia release. Not only was it Scott’s first album since the blockbuster Astroworld five years earlier, but it was his first following the catastrophic stage rush at his 2021 Astroworld Fest, which left 10 dead and cast a huge shadow over Scott’s career. Subsequent releases (like the 2022 Pharrell collab “Down in Atlanta”) failed to make much chart impact, and there seemed to at least be a chance that a similar fate would befall Utopia.
From its early returns on streaming, however, it seems like Scott & co. needn’t have worried. Billboard reported yesterday that the album posted a massive 266.21 million official on-demand U.S. streams in its first five days of release. That puts it just a few million short of the full-first-week total for Taylor Swift’s Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (269.33 million), which currently stands as the second-biggest streaming week of 2023 so far, and about 83 million short of Astroworld’s first-week tally (349.43 million) with two days still unaccounted for.
In addition to its robust streaming debut, the album should also sell well in its physical release, thanks largely to a wide variety of options. There are 15 deluxe boxed sets for the album, each containing a different piece of clothing with either a copy of the CD or vinyl LP – and a different cover with each box for the CD or vinyl LP contained inside. There are also two Fan Pack offers — where the customer could buy a piece of branded clothing and a copy of the physical album together for a discounted price, or choose to buy the items separately if they wanted. And of course, there’s the stand–alone physical album – available in five different CDs or five different vinyl LPs (the same physical albums contained in the boxed sets noted above) — and a digital edition, discounted to $4.99 in Scott’s webstore. (Physical copies of the album were only for sale through the webstore, as the set is currently unavailable at any other retailers.)
It should all add up to one of the biggest debuts for any album in 2023 – and almost certainly the highest first-week number for an R&B/hip-hop album this year. (The current top tally is held by Lil Uzi Vert’s Pink Tape, which debuted with 167,000 equivalent album units, including 210.39 million in streaming.)
Post Malone, Austin (Mercury/Republic): Three or four years ago, a first-week race between Travis Scott and Post Malone on the Billboard 200 would have been among the most exciting (and likely the closest) that pop music could’ve offered, as two of the most consistently successful recording artists of the late ‘10s. But while the intervening years may not have dampened Scott’s first-week album numbers much, they’ve had a bigger impact on Post Malone’s performance – his dour 2022 album Twelve Carat Toothache only posted about a quarter of the first-week units as 2019’s Hollywood’s Bleeding, and was relegated to a No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200.
That chart position may again be the best-case scenario for 2023’s Austin, Post Malone’s return to more upbeat pop music, albeit more guitar-based than the trap beats he made his stardom rapping over. From the early returns, the set is streaming well, but nowhere near as well as Utopia – on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for the Friday when both albums debuted (July 28), every track from Austin appeared on the top 200, but the album’s highest-finishing song still placed lower than the worst-performing Utopia cut.
Nonetheless, the album should still stream and sell well – significantly better than any non-Scott new release this week. The latter portion will be helped by two Fan Pack offers (similar to the ones Scott offers for Utopia), as well as a range of additional physical releases that includes three vinyl variants and a cassette option. (The set was also reissued mid-week in a deluxe edition, including the new bonus track “Joy.”)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 29), the two best-performing artists of 2023 battle again for the top spot, while new sets from a late rapper and a hip-hop star recovering from a near-death experience could make big bows.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): Taylor Swift is in the midst of a Billboard 200 week for the history books. Not only does her Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) debut at No. 1 with a 2023-best 716,000 units – the highest first-week number since her own Midnights last November – but it’s one of four Swift albums in the chart’s top 10 this week, along with Midnights (No. 5), Lover (No. 7) and Folklore (No. 10). The last living artist who had that many albums in the top 10 at the same time was Herb Alpert, way back in 1966.
Now, Swift will try to do something she’s yet to do with one of her Taylor’s Version re-recordings: hold at No. 1 for a second straight week. Though both her Fearless and Red redos debuted atop the chart with massive first-week numbers, both were deposed in the next frame: Fearless by YSL’s label showcase Slime Language 2 and Red by Adele’s much-anticipated 30. (Fearless did return for a second week on top months later, following its release on vinyl and signed CD.)
Swift’s primary competition will be – of course – Morgan Wallen, still at No. 2 with his 15-week chart-topper One Thing at a Time. The album continues to post weekly units in the six digits, and will likely have the streaming advantage over Swift with its 36 tracks (including the long-reigning Streaming Songs No. 1, “Last Night.”), as Swift’s massive first-week sales numbers take the usual second-week drop. However, Swift is following her biggest Taylor’s Version debut yet, and a second week even 15% as strong as her first week would still have been enough to get past Wallen’s most recent One Thing total.
IN THE MIX
King Von, Grandson (Only the Family/Empire): Chicago rapper King Von only released one album during his lifetime, 2020’s No. 5-peaking Welcome to O’Block, but he was well on his way to hip-hop stardom when he was shot to death that November. He’s already released one posthumous album with 2022’s No. 2-debuting What It Means to Be King, and he may hit the top 10 a third time with last Friday’s (July 14) Grandson, featuring guest appearances from hitmakers like Polo G, Lil Durk and Moneybagg Yo.
Lil Tjay, 222 (Columbia): New York rapper Lil Tjay’s promising career was derailed in June 2022 when he was shot multiple times during an attempted robbery. He survived the shooting, and on Friday released his first album since getting out of the hospital, 222. The album includes features from Summer Walker, The Kid LAROI, YoungBoy Never Broke Again and more, plus the first-person narrative “June 22,” named after the day of his ‘22 shooting.
Lauren Spencer-Smith, Mirror (Republic): The early-2022 viral breakout of teenage singer-songwriter (and former American Idol contestant) Lauren Spencer-Smith‘s heartbreak ballad “Fingers Crossed” earned her Olivia Rodrigo comparisons, and a deal with Republic Records. Subsequent singles haven’t fared as well, but Smith hopes to make good on that early promise with debut album Mirror – which she released on Friday as a “Fan Pack” (with vinyl and a shirt), as a boxed set (CD and shirt) and as a signed CD.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 22), Taylor Swift once again leaves the rest of the pop world in the dust with perhaps her best-performing Taylor’s Version full-album recreation yet.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): When it was released in 2010 as her third album, Speak Now became Taylor Swift’s first set to sell over a million copies in its first week. Her Taylor’s Version re-recording of the fan-favorite album might not post a seven-digit debut, but it’s already come closer than any other album in 2023. Billboard reported on Tuesday (July 11) that this Speak Now had passed 575,000 equivalent album units in just its first four days — already blowing past the 501,000 moved by previous mark-setter, Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time, in its first frame.
Those would be incredible numbers for any new release in 2023, let alone one where 16 of the 22 tracks included are near-soundalike re-dos of 13-year-old songs. Making the 400,000 in direct sales that the album has already accrued even more impressive is that the album is only available in a handful of physical editions – three vinyl variants (including an exclusive color for Target), a CD, a cassette, and a digital release – compared to many 2020s best-sellers (including Swift’s own 2022 blockbuster Midnights), which are released in dozens of physical editions to maximize fan purchases.
Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) has already put Swift’s peers in its rearview, but how will it compare to her own recently set standards? It’s unlikely to get close to the first-week numbers of Midnights, which scored an unthinkable-for-2022 1.578 million units. But it has a very good chance of passing 2021’s Red (Taylor’s Version), which debuted with 605,000 units, to become the biggest first week for any of her three re-recordings to date.
To pass Red (Taylor’s Version) would also be pretty staggering for this Speak Now, considering it has fewer tracks (22 to Red (TV)’s 30) and lacks a song driving as much pre-release excitement as that set’s “All Too Well (10-Minute Version),” which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 the same week the new Red topped the Billboard 200. (“I Can See You,” one of the set’s six first-time recordings, did receive a music video co-starring Speak Now-era Taylorverse fixtures Joey King, Taylor Lautner and Presley Cash, and looks to be due for a major Hot 100 debut next week.)
In the Mix
Lucki, S*x M*ney Dr*gs (EMPIRE): One of the most acclaimed rappers from the current rising wave of Chicago MCs, Lucki reached a career-best No. 12 on the Billboard 200 with 2012’s Flawless Like Me set. He may do even better with this month’s S*x M*ney Dr*gs mixtape, which only features one guest (fellow cult favorite Veeze) on its 15 tracks, but is already posting career-best streaming numbers that most rappers would be, well, lucky to have in 2023.
Dominic Fike, Sunburn (Columbia): If you listened to Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist last week, you might have noticed that the lead track was not from Taylor Swift’s latest, but rather from the long-awaited second album for singer-songwriter Dominic Fike. Columbia executives still have big hopes for Fike, who greatly increased his profile last year with a big role on HBO phenomenon Euphoria, and he may have something of a breakout hit with the album’s “Mona Lisa” — written for and briefly included on the deluxe edition of Metro Boomin’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse soundtrack — which climbs to No. 36 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart this week.
Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (Polydor/Interscope): Lana Del Rey’s ninth album debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200 in April — and while it’s remained on the chart for the past 15 weeks, it’s dropped all the way to No. 184. It should rebound significantly next week, though. thanks to a recent vinyl reissue with a cover featuring a partially nude photo of Del Rey. (She had previously considered the image for the album’s original cover, before deciding to “let the songs do the talking for now.”)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 8), an unexpected release from an incarcerated rapper leads a week that also includes some familiar names releasing debut albums, and others releasing their first projects in six years.
Young Thug, Business Is Business (YSL/300): A week after Gunna reached the Billboard 200’s No. 3 spot with his A Gift & A Curse album, his labelmate Young Thug should have a chance of doing even better with his new set, Business Is Business. Much interest in the new set is undoubtedly driven by not only the rapper’s incarceration, while he awaits trial on racketeering charges, but also his possibly strained relationship with Gunna — who was similarly indicted in the RICO trial, but released after taking an Alford Plea (a formal admission of guilt made while also maintaining innocence).
The alleged drama between the two rappers isn’t the only thing spurring consumption of the set, though. Young Thug has long been one of the most successful rappers on streaming, and Business’ tracklist is filled with appearances from A-listers like Drake, Lil Uzi Vert, Future, 21 Savage & Travis Scott. The 15-track set, which does not yet have a physical release, is also receiving today a deluxe Metro’s Version, named after its executive producer (and longtime Thug collaborator) Metro Boomin, and including two extra bonus tracks, including one with appearances from superstars Nicki Minaj and the late Juice WRLD.
Standing in the album’s way, of course, is Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – now the longest-reigning album of the last 10 years on the Billboard 200, with its 14 weeks on top. That album is still posting weekly units in the low six figures, so Thug will need to do a little better than the 90,000 first-week units his most recent album (2021’s Punk) notched to claim the top spot. (He would also score the first hip-hop No. 1 album of 2023 on the Billboard 200 in the process.)
Peso Pluma, Génesis (Double P/Prajin/The Orchard): No star around the globe has risen as quickly or as dramatically this year as Mexican corridos singer-songwriter Peso Pluma. He’s already made such an impact on the Billboard Hot 100 this year – reaching the chart 11 times, including with the top 5 hit “Ella Baila Sola,” alongside Eslabon Armado – that it’s pretty hard to believe that last week’s 14-track set Génesis is actually his debut album.
The album – which technically debuted last Thursday (June 22), bowing at No. 35 on Billboard’s Top Latin Albums chart with less than a full day of consumption– does not load up on those aforementioned Hot 100 hits, with only closer “Bye” having reached the chart. That should change next week, with the album dotting the daily charts of DSPs, led by likely breakout hit “Lady Gaga” with Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H. It’ll have to do most of its damage on streaming, as the album is also not yet for sale in any physical formats.
Kelly Clarkson, Chemistry (Atlantic): While veteran pop/rock hitmaker Kelly Clarkson isn’t the streaming force that Young Thug and Peso Pluma are, her Chemistry album will probably have much more of a sales impact. The LP, her first since 2017’s Meaning of Life is available in at least six different vinyl variants, including some retail-exclusive editions – along with a signed CD sold in her webstore, and Amazon- and Target-exclusive versions with a poster and alternate cover, respectively. It may be enough to help Chemistry became Clarkson’s eighth consecutive top five-charting original album, a streak that stretches all the way back to 2003 debut Thankful.
IN THE MIX
Kim Petras, Feed the Beast (Amigo/Republic): Though cult pop favorite Kim Petras has been releasing acclaimed singles, EPs and mixtapes for six years now, June’s Feed the Beast is her official debut album. It arrives after her breakthrough success with the Hot 100-topping “Unholy” — which is featured here, along with the Nicki Minaj-featuring “Alone” – and is being sold as a signed CD in her webstore.
Portugal. The Man, Chris Black Changed My Life (Atlantic): Portugal. The Man a very personally and collectively trying half-decade following their 2017 breakout smash “Feel It Still,” as chronicled in the group’s recent Billboard digital cover story. Their new set – named after PTM’s longtime friend and touring hypeman, who died in 2019 – doesn’t feature a single like that, but it does have a top 10 Rock & Alternative Airplay hit with “Dummy.” It’s also available as a cassette, as a signed CD, and in multiple vinyl variants.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 1), a star rapper looks to continue his hot streak, while hard rock veterans and K-poppers also put the top spot in their sights.
Gunna, A Gift and a Curse (YSL/300): Though Gunna has been under attack on social media since last December for his supposed “snitching” in accepting an Alford plea — a formal admission of guilt while also maintaining innocence — for his part in the YSL RICO trial, it appears that he remains a prolific performer on streaming. (He denied any cooperation with the prosecution.) His new album A Gift and a Curse has littered the Spotify and Apple Music real-time charts since its release last Friday (June 16), with the shout-along “fukumean” already seeming like a breakout hit from the set.
The rapper born Sergio Giavanni Kitchens has been a regular visitor to the top spot of the Billboard 200 since his late-’10s rise to stardom. And he’s already been there three times this decade – with his own Wunna (2020) and DS4Ever (2022) albums, and as a co-lead on the YSL showcase compilation Slime Language 2 (2021). DS4Ever, Gunna’s most recent set, was also his most popular, moving 150,000 first-week units and topping even The Weeknd’s new Dawn FM to claim the top spot.
To unseat Morgan Wallen – who returns to No. 1 for a 13th frame with his One Thing at a Time blockbuster this chart week – he’ll need to do it almost entirely with streaming (with help from digital sales), as the album is not yet for sale in any physical format. Wallen posted 115,000 units in its most recent week, so if Gunna can approach his DS4ever debut performance with his new set, he should have a pretty good shot of becoming the latest act to interrupt the country star’s months-long reign.
Ateez, The World Ep.2: Outlaw (KQ/RCA/Legacy): It’s going to be a classic case of sales vs. streams in next week’s competition for top debut on the Billboard 200. Eight-piece Korean boy band Ateez has yet to establish a big stateside presence on streaming services, but like many popular K-pop acts, the act sells physical copies by the truckload – which has already helped their Spin Off: From the Witness set hit No. 7 earlier this year, and their The World Ep.1: Movement EP get all the way to No. 3 on the Billboard 200 last August.
The sequel to that latter EP, The World Ep. 2: Outlaw is also expected to make a pretty big chart splash next week, again thanks to robust physical sales. To maximize that opportunity, the octet has released 21 different collectible CD editions of Outlaw, including some signed variants, all containing branded merchandise and randomized items (action cards, partner cards, photo cards) — as well as a Target-exclusive edition.
Queens of the Stone Age, In Times New Roman… (Matador): Queens of the Stone Age albums are becoming increasingly infrequent – it’s been six years since the band’s Villains – but the veteran hard rock band has historically been a strong performer on the Billboard 200, and it even topped the chart two albums ago with 2013’s …Like Clockwork. This month’s In Times New Roman… will be helped by a series of different-colored vinyl variants, though thus far the album lacks a hit single to match Villains’ top 10-charting Rock Airplay hit “The Way You Used to Do.”
In the Mix
J. Cole, Born Sinner (ByStorm/Columbia/Dreamville/Roc Nation): As fans eagerly await a new album from Cole — and as he sticks around the top five on the BillboardHot 100 with his appearance on Lil Durk’s smash “All My Life” — fans also have new goodies to tide them over with the vinyl reissue of his 2013 chart-topper Born Sinner. The LP is available in a trio of color variants, including a translucent red exclusive to Target.
Asake, Work of Art (YNBL/Empire): Asake’s debut album Mr. Money With the Vibe was one of the most-acclaimed and best-received Afrobeats albums of 2022, reaching the top half of the Billboard 200. The Nigerian singer/songwriter looks to do even better than that set’s No. 66 bow with this month’s Work of Art, which has already scored a pair of top 10 hits on the Billboard U.S. Afrobeats Songs chart with advance tracks “Amapiano” (with Olamide) and “2:30.”