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Warner Music Group (WMG) sent letters to tech companies this week instructing them not to use the label’s music to train artificial intelligence technology without permission. Sony Music sent out similar letters to over 700 companies in May.
“It is imperative that all uses and implementations of machine learning and AI technologies respect the rights of all those involved in the creation, marketing, promotion, and distribution of music,” Warner’s notice reads.
It continues, “all parties must obtain an express license from WMG to use… any creative works owned or controlled by WMG or to link to or ingest such creative works in connection with the creation of datasets, as inputs for any machine learning or AI technologies, or to train or develop any machine learning or AI technologies.”
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The notices from Sony and Warner come in the wake of the AI Act, legislation that was passed in the European Union in May. “Any use of copyright protected content requires the authorization of the rightsholder concerned unless relevant copyright exceptions and limitations apply,” the act notes. “Rightsholders may choose to reserve their rights over their works or other subject matter to prevent text and data mining, unless this is done for the purposes of scientific research.”
If companies take this action, then “providers of general-purpose AI models need to obtain an authorization from rightsholders if they want to carry out text and data mining over such works.”
The Cold War between the music industry and much of the AI world has been heating up in recent months. Labels are adamant that AI companies should license their music if they want to use those massive catalogs of recordings to develop song generation technology.
Most AI companies, however, aren’t interested in paying. They often argue that their activities fall under “fair use” — the U.S. legal doctrine that allows for the unlicensed use of copyrighted works in certain situations.
In June, the three major labels sued two AI music companies, Suno and Udio, accusing them both of “willful copyright infringement on an almost unimaginable scale.” “These lawsuits are necessary to reinforce the most basic rules of the road for the responsible, ethical, and lawful development of generative AI systems and to bring Suno’s and Udio’s blatant infringement to an end,” RIAA Chief Legal Officer Ken Doroshow said in a statement.
In a response to the suits, Suno CEO Mikey Shulman said his company’s tech is “designed to generate completely new outputs, not to memorize and regurgitate pre-existing content.” Udio said it “stand[s] behind our technology.”
The three major music companies are weighing a lawsuit against AI startups Suno and Udio for allegedly training on copyrighted sound recordings, according to multiple sources.
The potential lawsuit, which would include Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group and Sony Music, would target a pair of companies that have quickly become two of the most important players in the emerging field of generative AI music. While many of its competitors focus on generating either music or lyrics or vocals, Suno and Udio both allow users to generate all three in the click of a button. Two sources said the lawsuit could come as soon as next week. Reps for the three majors, as well as Suno and Udio, did not respond to requests for comment.
Music companies, including UMG, have already filed a lawsuit against Anthropic, another major AI firm, over the use of copyrighted materials to train models. But that case dealt only with lyrics, which in many ways are legally similar to written subject matter. The new suit would deal with music and sound itself.
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Just a few months from its launch, Udio has already produced what could be considered an AI-generated hit song with “BBL Drizzy,” a parody track created by comedian King Willonius and popularized via a remix by super producer Metro Boomin. Later, the song reached new heights when it was sampled in Sexyy Red and Drake‘s song “U My Everything,” becoming the first major example of sampling an AI-generated song.
Suno has also achieved early success since its launch in December 2023. In May, the company announced via a blog post that it had raised a total of $125 million in funding from a group of notable investors, including Lightspeed Venture Partners and Nat Friedman and Daniel Gross.
Both companies, however, have drawn criticism from many members of the music business who believe that the models train on vast swathes of copyrighted material, including hit songs, without consent, compensation or credit to rights holders. Representatives for Suno and Udio have previously declined to comment on whether or not they train on protected copyrights, with Udio’s co-founders telling Billboard they simply train on “good music.”
In a recent Rolling Stone story about Suno, investor Antonio Rodriguez admitted that Suno does not have licenses for whatever music it has trained on, but he said that was not a concern to him, adding that this lack of such licenses is “the risk we had to underwrite when we invested in the company, because we’re the fat wallet that will get sued right behind these guys… Honestly, if we had deals with labels when this company got started, I probably wouldn’t have invested in it. I think that they needed to make this product without the constraints.”
In a series of articles for Music Business Worldwide, founder of AI safety non-profit Fairly Trained, Ed Newton-Rex, found that he was able to generate music from Suno and Udio that “bears a striking resemblance to copyrighted music. This is true across melody, chords, style and lyrics,” he wrote. Both companies, however, bar users from prompting the models to copy artists’ styles by typing out sentiments like “a rock song in the style of Radiohead” or from using specific artists’ voices.
The case, if it is filed, would hinge on whether the use of unlicensed materials to train AI models amounts to copyright infringement — something of an existential question for the booming sector, since depriving AI models of new inputs could limit their abilities. Content owners in many sectors, including book authors, comedians and visual artists, have all filed similar lawsuits over training.
Many AI companies argue that such training is protected by copyright’s fair use doctrine — an important rule that allows people to reuse protected works without breaking the law. Though fair use has historically allowed for things like news reporting and parody, AI firms say it applies equally to the “intermediate” use of millions of works to build a machine that spits out entirely new creations. That argument will likely be the central question in any lawsuit over AI training.
Some AI companies have taken what is often called a more “ethical” approach to AI training by working directly with companies and rights holders to license their copyrights or form official partnerships instead.
So far, the majors have embraced partnering with AI companies in this way. Already, UMG and WMG have worked with YouTube for its AI voice experiment DreamTrack; Sony has partnered with Vermillio on a remix project for The Orb and David Gilmour; WMG has worked with Edith Piaf’s estate to recreate her voice using AI for an upcoming biopic; UMG launched an AI music incubator with YouTube Music; and most recently, UMG has teamed up with SoundLabs to let their artists create their own AI voice models for personal use in the studio.
After taking itself out of the bidding for French music group and distributor Believe in April, Warner Music Group (WMG) is shopping for an alternative distribution company that could help it gain market share in the competitive space that serves independent creators and labels — and it’s hired a top music investment banker from Goldman Sachs to lead the effort.
Since taking over as WMG’s CEO last year, Robert Kyncl has said the company is prepared to build in-house the technology and services he thinks it needs. Now he’s ready to buy them as well.
“As part of our mission to be a destination for artists and songwriters at every stage of development, we are expanding our lower-touch services that many indie artists, labels and songwriters rely on,” Kyncl said on a conference call discussing WMG’s quarterly earnings on May 9. “We have a clear plan to develop this area of our ecosystem, and we’re building solutions in-house while staying vigilant about [merger and acquisition] opportunities, which could accelerate our capabilities.”
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On Thursday (June 6), WMG announced the hire of Goldman Sachs’ global head of music & live entertainment investment banking Michael Ryan-Southern to a newly created executive vp role. Reporting to Kyncl, Ryan-Southern will be responsible for acquiring companies and catalogs that can boost WMG’s growth and revenues. When he officially joins in August, the first item on his shopping list will be an independent distribution company, smaller in size and cost than Believe, that an inside source described as a “bolt-on” acquisition to help grow WMG’s market share in the independent distribution and services business without affecting its overall profit margins.
Among the companies that WMG is eyeing, according to sources, are leading independent distributors DistroKid and CD Baby. WMG is “active in the market” but is still in the exploratory stage, those sources say.
A WMG spokesperson declined to comment for this story. A representative for Downtown, which owns CD Baby, also declined to comment, except to say that Downtown “is singularly focused on continuing to grow our business and support our clients’ success.” Representatives for DistroKid did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
WMG approached Paris-based Believe in February with a nonbinding offer to acquire it at a price of “at least” 17 euros ($18.60) per share. It ultimately decided not to submit a formal offer in April. Asked why the company did not pursue an offer for Believe, Kyncl said on the May 9 call that it backed away “for a variety of reasons,” including the brief amount of time it was given to conduct due diligence.
Ryan-Southern is a former EMI publishing executive who, along with Goldman’s global head of entertainment investment banking, Aaron Siegel, was on some of music’s biggest deals. These included New Mountain Capital’s acquisition of BMI and the spinoff of Sphere Entertainment, which owns the Sphere in Las Vegas, MSG Networks and Tao Group Hospitality, from Madison Square Garden Entertainment, which owns and operates the Garden and Radio City Music Hall among other venues in New York and Chicago. Ryan-Southern and Siegal also advised Believe founder/CEO Denis Ladegaillerie and his consortium with investment funds EQT and TCV on their effort to take Believe private.
Buying or building something that can leverage WMG’s independent distribution and services division, ADA, would help the music company recruit more early-stage artists, something its executives consider core to its success.
WMG launched ADA in 1993, roughly 20 years before Sony bought a stake in The Orchard and Universal Music Group launched Caroline International as an indie-label distributor that was later rebranded as Virgin Music Group. And though WMG was the first major to carve out a presence serving the independent artist market — renting its major-label services to indies, as industry sources have described it — competition in the market has heated up.
UMG and Sony have invested tens of millions in recent years buying rival startups in the space. A minority shareholder since 2006, UMG acquired Ingrooves in 2019. In 2022, UMG acquired Mtheory Artist Partnerships as well as a 49% stake in [PIAS]. Sony closed out its full acquisition of The Orchard in 2015 and then bought AWAL in 2022.
The Orchard now holds a commanding lead in the U.S. market with a 7.27% current market share, according to Luminate. UMG’s Virgin Music Group, which comprises Ingrooves, Mtheory and Virgin Music Label & Artist Services, holds around 3.42% of the current market. ADA has a current market share of 1.68%. Its biggest client, BMG, which contributes 0.94% to ADA’s current share, is winding down its distribution agreement.
WMG now needs to “turbocharge” this part of its business to capitalize on the fast-growing independent sector, says Fred Davis, partner at The Raine Group.
“The world now is divided into three categories of artists: those signed to major labels, those signed to indie labels and indie artists without a label,” Davis says. “Distribution platforms are proving to be a viable source of A&R for the major labels.”
Focusing WMG’s A&R more on capturing opportunities, particularly in genres that are just beginning to experience growth, was one of Kyncl’s top 2024 agenda items highlighted in a New Year’s Day note he sent to all staff. In April, WMG’s publishing division, Warner Chappell Music (WCM), partnered with ReverbNation, BandLab Technologies’ premium artist services platform, to identify and sign emerging songwriters. WCM administers music rights for any users who enroll in a new program through ReverbNation Publishing Administration, and signed songwriters gain access to WCM’s services.
WMG has acquired majority stakes or launched joint ventures with a few distribution-oriented companies in recent years — some before Kyncl joined WMG — primarily in emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia. Among them: a majority stake in Africori, the leading digital music distribution, music rights management and artist development company in Africa, in January 2022. That March, it also acquired Qanawat Music, a leading distributor in the Middle East and North Africa.
Last year, WMG did two deals in India: It acquired a majority stake in Indian digital media company Divo and formed a joint venture with Sky Digital, which aggregates releases from Punjabi and Hindi labels.
While WMG has made acquisitions in other geographical regions, rival majors have bought companies serving the U.S. market for independents. “It would make sense for [WMG] to augment its distribution with an acquisition,” says a source familiar with the company’s strategy.
Warner Music Group’s revived Record Store Crawl returned to New York City last weekend after a five-year absence, complete with a bus full of music and vinyl fans — including Billboard’s Retail Track — that kicked things off at Tower Records’ Tower Labs space in Brooklyn with a rocking performance from 300 Entertainment recording artists Quarters of Change.
The crawl’s bus, transporting about 40 music fans, went on to visit Academy Records in Brooklyn, Audio-Technica showroom in lower Manhattan, Generation Records in the West Village; and finally, Rough Trade Records up in Rockefeller Center, all on Saturday (May 18).
Upcoming crawls are scheduled in Seattle on June 14; Austin on July 20; Nashville on Aug. 10; Chicago on Sept. 28; and Los Angeles on Oct. 19. Tickets for each crawl costs $77.45. Just like the New York Crawl, those cities will likely feature an artist performance and so far, Joe P has been lined up for the ones in Seattle and Austin; Knox for the one in Nashville; Deux Visages for Chicago; and Alicia Creti for Los Angeles.
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What’s more, vinyl and music lovers can visit the Record Store Crawl website to vote for which U.S. city will be the winner of a crawl slated for Sept. 7. All the crawls are sponsored in partnership with Audio-Technica and HeadCount. When fans vote on the WMG Record Store Crawl website for which city should receive the September crawl, the site asks if the voter is registered to vote in U.S. elections. If they aren’t, or are simply unsure, a link takes them to the headcount.org website where they can either check their status or register to vote.
The last time WMG had a Record Store Crawl was a year prior to the COVID-19 shutdown. Before the pandemic, the then-named WEA (now named WMX) held 40 Crawls in cities across the United States from 2016 through 2019, according to WMX senior director of retail & platform marketing (RPM) Gina Williams. In NYC, they were mainly held on Record Store Day. However, nowadays record stores have plenty going on that day, Williams said, so WMG’s team chose other days to bring a traffic boost to stores.
While the Record Store Day Crawl was happening in New York, WMX’s RPM team was hosting some 165 early listening events for Twenty One Pilots‘ new album, Clancy, out now on Fueled By Ramen. According to a statement issued by the company, “thousands of fans nationwide packed into their local record stores to hear the album early, connect with fellow fans and experience what independent record stores are all about: community and love of music. Moreover, in the prior year, 2023, the RPM Team hosted 972 listening party indie store activations in 2023 for 12 releases. The RPM Team and Atlantic Records were nominated for a 2024 Music Biz Bizzy for our Barbie, The Album listening events.”
In New York, Record Store Crawl fans lined up at noon outside Tower’s performance space in Williamsburg to get a bag of swag from the Warner family of labels. Retail Track’s bag contained the Keith Sweat Make It Last Forever limited-edition black ice vinyl album and a “Brother” 45 from Needtobreathe, plus stickers and other tchotchkes; as well as a raffle ticket, which would come in very handy on the bus ride between stops on the crawl.
Inside Tower, the crawlers were treated to a high-energy seven-song set from Quarters of Change, who performed tracks from its debut album, Into the Rift, and its just released follow-up, Portraits.
Quarters of Change perform at Tower Records’ Tower Labs space in Brooklyn on May 18.
Rita Vega
After the band’s set, the tour loaded onto the bus and headed to the next stop: Academy Records Annex in Greenpoint, where Retail Track scored a few singles: O.V. Wright’s “Precious Precious” on Hi Records; Arthur Prysock’s “I Wantcha Baby,” on Hy Weiss’ Old Town Records; and Shirley Brown’s “Woman To Woman” on Truth Records.
After that, the bus headed to Manhattan via the Williamsburg Bridge and the mother of all traffic jams, moving literally an inch at a time. That led to plenty of opportunities for WMX’s RPM senior manager Ross Srodo to show off his emcee prowess, while WMX RPM creative manager Eden Mili supplied pithy embellishments in her role as ace ticket number reader as the duo raffled off plenty of Record Store Day exclusives and other limited edition and/or deluxe vinyl records — all from the Warner Music family of labels, naturally. During that ride, Han Mu, one of the crawlers, said he heard about the Record Store Crawl through an Instagram post. He also hailed the crawl’s pricing, saying, “it is totally worth it.”
In Manhattan, the first stop was at Audio-Technica House, the audio equipment brand’s collaboration space in SoHo, where crawlers were treated to Banshee Winery wines and a music trivia game with the winner taking home a turntable. The rest of the crawlers got an Audio-Technica record cleaning kit.
Up next, a quick ride to Generation Records, where crawlers had the pleasure of flipping through the stacks while dining on Williamsburg Pizza. Retail Track hit the downstairs used records bargain bin and scored 10 vinyl albums, including ones by The Association, Dakota Staton, Gene Pitney, Jimmy Ruffin, Joan Armatrading and Renaissance — the latter on Warner Bros. Records.
The Record Store Crawl itself wasn’t the only attraction, as Hannah Tebo bought a ticket especially to see the performance by Quarters of Change, as did Ellen Cainsford, who flew in from Austin because she said she wanted to “see the band in a special venue for an intimate performance.” Besides her, two others traveled in from North Carolina for the Record Store Crawl, while two more music fans came from Philadelphia, WMX RPM manager Mel Hoch reported to Retail Track.
Finally, the day culminated at Rough Trade where Retail Track scored Quarters of Change’s Portrait LP. “It was great to have a busload of eager record fans of all ages pop in and take over our store briefly,” store manager George Flanagan tells Billboard. “It was a very good day already and then the music fans from the bus provided a nice spike. We sold a lot of music.”
Much like last month’s Record Store Day, Retail Track once again heard the siren call of (this time) a cold Budweiser, which was easily scored around the corner from Rough Trade at the Pig & Whistle pub. After all, Retail Track needed something to wash down the wine taste from back at Audio-Technica House.
Retail Trackback: Taylor Helps, But Olivia & Others Also Bring Big Sales to RSD 2024
Live Nation was the top-performing music stock and one of four stocks in positive territory this week. The concert promoter gained 2.5% to $97.02 while three other concert promotion stocks — Sphere Entertainment Co., Madison Square Garden Entertainment and CTS Eventim — each lost ground.
The Billboard Global Music Index fell 1.9% to 1,788.83 as 16 of its 20 stocks finished the week in negative territory. Music streaming companies Deezer and Anghami were two of the week’s other big winners with gains of 1.0% and 0.9%, respectively. Still, the index has risen 16.6% year to date and 12 of the 20 stocks have posted gains in 2024.
Another notable gainer this week was Believe, which closed Friday at 15.04 euros ($16.21), up 0.3% from the prior week. A closing price of 15.04 euros is above the 15.00 euros offer price by consortium of investors that aims to take Believe private. Some minority shareholders may remain, however, because the consortium, which has lined up 71.92% of share equity, will not implement a squeeze-out and force shareholders representing the remaining 28.08% of share capital to sell.
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iHeartMedia shares declined 42.7% to $1.30, leaving the radio broadcaster with a market capitalization of just $194 million. Its shares fell 36.1% on Thursday following its first-quarter earnings release and dropped another 5.8% on Friday.
As streaming has surged in popularity and economic importance, radio companies have struggled to reinvent themselves. In 2021, iHeartMedia shares surpassed $28 after the advertising market recovered from a COVID-19 pandemic-related collapse. But in the subsequent three years, its shares have lost nearly all their value as sluggish radio advertising has overshadowed iHeartMedia’s budding podcast business.
The index didn’t fall further than 1.9% because many of its most valuable companies suffered only minor losses this week. Spotify, the largest contributor to the float-adjusted index, dropped only 0.5% while HYBE, one of the index’s more valuable components, fell just 1.5%.
Those small losses, and Live Nation’s 2.5% gain, helped offset larger losses by some other valuable components of the index. Universal Music Group fell 3.1% to 28.01 euros ($30.22) and Warner Music Group dropped 7.3% to $31.64 following its fiscal second quarter earnings release on Thursday. Evercore and Morgan Stanley both dropped their price targets by $2 on WMG’s stock on Friday. Guggenheim maintain its WMG price target.
While music stocks had a rough week, stocks were broadly up around the world. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 1.9% to 5,222.68 and the Nasdaq composite improved 1.1% to 16,340.87. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 2.7% to 8,433.76. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 1.9% to 2,727.63. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.6% to 3,154.55.
They love artists, they’ve got money to burn, and they’re the music industry’s new obsession: Say hello to superfans.
In January alone, Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl called for “stok[ing] the blue flames of superfans” and additional “direct artist-superfan products and experiences”; Universal Music Group CEO Lucian Grainge highlighted the value of “superfan experiences and products”; and Spotify hinted at future “superfan clubs” in a blog post.
The following month, leaders at Interscope and Live Nation shouted out superfans. That was all before Joon Choi, president of the Korean fan platform Weverse, one-upped everyone by telling Music Business Worldwide that “the potential for growth in the superfan business and economy is limitless.” Stoke those blue flames right, and they’ll never stop burning.
All this runaway enthusiasm about superfans “goes back to that Goldman Sachs article,” says Mike Biggane, a former UMG executive and founder of Big Effect, which is developing technology designed to help smaller artist teams. Last summer, the financial institution posited that superfans — Luminate defines this group as listeners who “engage with artists and their content in five-plus different ways” — could inject more than $4 billion into the music industry by 2030.
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Goldman’s report also noted that the music business struggles “to fully monetize its content.” Nearly everyone listens to music, but the industry’s value pales next to that of gaming, for example. Games “have been more agile in terms of innovating and adopting ways to generate new revenue streams,” says Ben Sumner, managing director at Feel for Music, which helps games and brands with music supervision.
But for labels and streaming services, collecting new revenue from superfans may be easier said than done. “People are trying to find a simple way to mine fandom,” says Mike Pelczynski, one of the architects of SoundCloud’s “fan-powered royalties,” a payout system that aligns streaming revenue more closely with fandom. “It’s good for investors to hear, but it’s not simple. Every platform is different.”
Not only that: “So much of the conversation is about how to extract more out of the superfan, which I think is a big mistake,” says Bernie Cahill, founding partner of Activist Artists Management. “If you take care of them, you will get far more value out of that relationship than you will by selling them another piece of vinyl or a T-shirt.”
Pelczynski believes that “superfans want to be closer to, and most importantly seen by, their favorite artist.” They also clearly gain from their connections with like-minded enthusiasts — working together to orchestrate fundraising campaigns to support the acts they love, for example. Luminate found that superfans are 43% more likely than the average listener to say they “like to participate in the community” that springs up around an act.
These communities are defined by artist-to-fan and fan-to-fan relationships. It’s not immediately clear where labels can squeeze in.
And it’s notable that, historically, labels actually excel at reaching passive fans. A record label is unmatched when it comes to taking a song that’s connecting with audiences in one space and making it so ubiquitous that it becomes inescapable, the kind of thing that casual listeners run into at the gym and the supermarket. “We can reach Fall Out Boy‘s superfans pretty easily,” says Jonathan Daniel, co-founder of Crush Management (FOB, Miley Cyrus, Lorde and others). “When they have a song that raises its hand above the superfans, different opportunities come for them, and that’s where you really need the label — they’re great at taking it really wide.”
What’s more, in an age of artist empowerment, it’s hard to imagine many acts ceding control of their superfan communities to record companies. “Smart artists really curate a direct connection themselves,” Cahill says — they know their diehard followers keep them afloat. (It’s jarring to hear executives say things like “fandom is the future,” as if it wasn’t also the past.)
These days, due to the fact that artists can record, distribute and market themselves all on the cheap, they usually amass a dedicated following before they even sign to a label. This tends to give them a lot of sway in contract negotiations, and as a result, 360 deals — where labels take a share of the money that artists make from touring and merchandise sales, for example — are out of favor with young managers and lawyers, limiting record companies’ ability to cash in on superfans’ passion.
Nonetheless, to the extent that labels can encourage superfans to stream more or buy additional vinyl variants, they stand to gain financially. All the major labels also own merch companies, so if they can stoke demand for t-shirts that are subsequently manufactured by their own outlets, that’s another win. And UMG recently invested in Weverse and NTWRK’s acquisition of Complex, allowing it to benefit indirectly from superfandom.
Warner has another plan altogether: In February, Kyncl said that he’s “assembled a team of incredible technology talent” to construct “an app where artists can connect directly with their superfans.” While he hasn’t shared any additional details on what this will look like, users would presumably only have access to Warner artists on a Warner superfan platform. However, most listeners probably also want to connect with some acts signed elsewhere, to the extent they even know what labels their favorite artists are signed to.
The other hurdle for new superfan apps, or streaming platforms trying to add new superfan features, is all the existing options: The majority of artists already try to interact with their most passionate fans on TikTok, Instagram, Discord, Reddit and more. As a result, “artists’ time is very scarce,” says Roneil Rumburg, co-founder and CEO at Audius, a blockchain-based streaming service which enabled direct payments from fans to artists last year.
If more streamers try rolling out superfan features — SoundCloud, for example, allowed acts to message their top fans last year — then artists’ time will be crunched even further, as each platform will presumably require a different approach to engagement. In fact, Kyncl used exactly this reasoning to justify Warner’s venture into platform building. Artists “don’t want to optimize just for one platform over another,” he said.
“The few companies that are trying to build their own ecosystems, I applaud it,” Pelczynski says. However, “I think it’s going to be very challenging to make something that people will be willing to spend their time on and add to their daily usual behaviors.”
Like labels, the most prominent streaming services have spent a lot of time in the past decade figuring out how to serve music up to passive fans. (Spotify once had a messaging system, but it was discontinued in 2017 due to “very low engagement.”) They have had success using various recommendation methods — editorial playlists, algorithmic playlists — to ensure that people keep listening.
But a new generation of listeners appears less interested in throwing an editorial playlist on in the background. Younger, more engaged fans like to slow down their favorite artist’s track, mash it up, or duet with it, leading to the proliferation of homemade re-works across social media platforms.
“For the first time ever, an artist can put a song out and it might be a fan-created flavor of it that connects,” says Gaurav Sharma, founder of Hook, a platform that helps rightsholders monetize user-generated remixes. “Community is being built around music on social media, and fan remixing is a way to be unique in that expression.” It may be hard for major streaming services to cater to this type of fandom, though, due to rights issues: Labels probably aren’t going to condone unauthorized remixes on prominent music streamers. (This is the problem Hook is trying to solve.)
There has also been speculation around the industry about streaming services charging superfans extra for early access to music, a tactic that calls back to the exclusive album windows of a decade ago. That said, “fans expect a LOT of value to justify a monthly fee, especially with subscription fatigue,” according to a recent (subsequently deleted) tweet from Emily White, a former Spotify and Billboard employee whose “team was exploring artist fan clubs.”
Still, despite all the potential obstacles, “We’re seeing a lot of momentum on the institutional music side to figure this out and do it quickly,” Rumburg says, before adding a note of caution: “When so many hopes and dreams get injected into one word or concept, there’s no way it ever lives up to the hype.”
Warner Music Group announced over the weekend that it has called off plans to submit a binding offer to acquire French music company Believe. The label did not elaborate on its decision, only that it was made “after careful consideration.” Believe followed up in a statement, saying it will “review the situation with all interested […]
Believe‘s board of directors on Monday (Mar. 25) asked Warner Music Group (WMG) to submit a formal bid for the French music company after stating that French financial regulators found an offer by a group that includes Believe CEO Denis Ladegaillerie violated certain securities rules. WMG said earlier this month that it approached Believe in […]
These days the music industry sometimes seems like a media business version of “Trading Places” in which every label wants to be a distributor and every distributor wants to become a label.
On March 7, Warner Music Group disclosed its interest in buying the French digital music distributor Believe, but all the label groups are focusing more on the distribution game – think Sony Music’s 2021 acquisition of AWAL and Universal Music Group’s October consolidation of Virgin Music and Ingrooves. At the same time, distributors are offering more of the services that only labels used to provide, including radio promotion and different kinds of marketing.
From the perspective of an independent creator, these two once-separate sectors have moved close enough that they’re competing – the majors are offering more flexible contracts that allow artists to keep their copyrights, while distributors are providing advances and an array of services to successful acts. For anyone who was in the industry before streaming became the standard, this seems like the music business’ Reese’s moment: You got your distribution in my label! You got your label in my distribution! To outsiders and young creators though, the distinction might not even make that much sense in the first place. Behind all the complicated corporate org charts, isn’t Sony just investing in, marketing and distributing Bad Bunny’s music (through The Orchard), just as it invests in, markets and distributes Beyoncé’s (on Columbia)?
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Sort of. Companies spend less, and make less, on the music they distribute, while acts signed to labels represent bigger bets both in terms of investment and potential upside. Distribution is steadier, while the label business involves more risk and some very profitable successes that more than make up for them. That’s not new. What is new, though, is how what was once a binary choice has become more of a question of finding the right point on a spectrum of risk and reward that has a traditional label deal at one end, distribution on the other and plenty of options in between.
It’s easy to understand why distributors are offering services that were once solely the domain of labels – pure online distribution has always been a low-cost commodity business, and label services offers are one way to get better margins. But what about the opposite? Why are labels getting into a lower-profit business that essentially endangers the best part of their existing business? Especially as label deals get less standard, companies make higher margins on acts that are early in their careers, before they score the success that gets them the leverage to negotiate a better deal.
Understanding why the major label groups are investing so much in a less profitable sector than the one they’re in requires seeing the issue like a media executive in the Internet Age, which is to say through the lens of disruption. This is the idea that companies which pioneer a good-enough product or service at a much lower cost will eventually challenge the market leaders – think of Netflix and cable television, for example. Although the theory isn’t as simple or as applicable as technology executives say it may well apply here: The market share of recorded music from traditional labels is slowly but steadily shrinking, in favor of distributors. The good news for the major labels is that much of that shift involves distributors they own, including The Orchard, owned by Sony, which raised its U.S. market share from 1.5% in 2021, to 7.1% in 2022, to 8.7% in 2023, according to Luminate. Much of that business comes from Bad Bunny, of course, but the company already has another bona fide Latin music superstar in Peso Pluma.
The labels basically just want to disrupt their own businesses before other companies can. If you think this kind of change is inevitable, it’s worth running toward it. (The music business has a reputation for being fearful of technology because it took so long to embrace the internet, but the business school idea of disruption doesn’t apply to pirated music; Napster wasn’t offering another product – it was offering the same product illegally.)
The second reason companies are buying distributors is, as MUSIC founder and CEO Matt Pincus recently told Billboard, “it solves a real stack problem for them.” Pincus was talking specifically about Warner, which like all label groups focuses on trying to break and market stars. A “stack” – programmer-speak for underlying technology – would let the company serve beginning creators and more emerging ones, as well as stars and a few artists that it wants to develop into stars. Warner already does this with ADA, which distributes independent labels, but ADA has tended to focus on a moderate number of mid-size indies, rather than a larger number of smaller ones.
But the most important reason labels are investing more on distribution could be the sector’s potential to serve as a kind of talent farm system. In the movies, label executives discover artists in bars or office auditions, but that hasn’t been the dominant way of doing business for a generation. These days, even beginning creators are distributing their music online, starting their careers on their own rather than trying to be discovered. Which means that by the time a major label gets interested in them, they may already have a deal. Since it’s easier to sign an artist who’s already involved with another division of the company, it makes sense to cast the biggest net possible. This is a defensive move, too: Now that Sony and Universal have big distribution businesses that can potentially serve as talent pipelines, Warner arguably needs one, too.
For that matter, the same applies to Believe. Most indie creators want to start their careers with basic distribution deals – but few of them want to stop there. Believe could be much more attractive to creators if it could offer them a place to grow to as well as services to grow into.
Believe benefitted from geographical expansion and strong streaming growth to post revenue of 880.3 million euros ($952.8 million at the average exchange rate) in 2023, up 15.7% from the prior year, the company announced Wednesday (Mar. 13). Organic growth was 14.4%, matching the guidance the company provided in October of organic growth exceeding 14%. After adjusting for foreign currency headwinds, Believe’s adjusted organic growth rate was 19.5% in 2023 and 21.8% in the fourth quarter.
The current growth rate should extend into the current year. Believe expects to achieve organic revenue growth in excess of 20% in 2024, adjusted to 18% to account for expected foreign currency headwinds. That high growth rate stems from a healthy paid streaming market and the belief that the ad-supported streaming market will rebound in the second half of the year. Believe also expects to make market share gains, especially in countries where it is not yet a top three company for local artists.
In 2023, Believe was helped by price increases at music streaming services in 2023 — Amazon Music in January, Spotify in July and Deezer in November. The company had market share gains in all key countries and with all key digital service providers, Xaiver Dumont, chief financial and operating officer, said during Wednesday’s earnings call.
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Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EDITDA) of 50.3 million euros ($54.4 million) was up 45%. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 5.7%, surpassing guidance of at least 5.5%. Free cash flow was -3.1 million euros (-$3.4 million), although free cash flow turned positive in the second half of the year.
The earnings release arrived as Believe is the subject of a bid to be taken private by a consortium led by CEO Denis Ladegaillerie and investment firms EQT X and TCV. Warner Music Group (WMG) revealed last week that it’s interested in pursuing Believe and willing to beat the consortium’s offer. Believe’s executives did not address questions about the take-private bid during Wednesday’s earnings call, however.
The publicly traded French music company’s business model is built around helping to develop artists and using digital marketing and distribution to impact local charts. That approach is increasingly relevant when any artist can go viral on social media. Case in point: Believe landed a hit in 2023 when a 2022 single, “Si No Estás’” by Iñigo Quintero, become a TikTok hit in Spain before topping charts in France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Austria and Belgium. “These success at the top are being achieved in a wider variety of genres of music” including hip-hop, pop and metal, Ladegaillerie said during the earnings call.
Believe also landed 42 albums in the top 200 in its home country and 48 singles in the Top 100 in its second-largest market, Germany. In the United Kingdom, consumption was up 394%. In China, Believe expanded to 80 staffers in five offices that serve 300 record labels. In India, where Believe acquired White Hill Music’s catalog in December, the company had 66 songs on local charts.
Revenue in France, where Believe is in the top three recorded music companies for local artists, rose 14.9% to 147.8 million euros ($160 million). Revenue in Germany dropped 2.4% to 110.9 million euros ($120 million), while revenue in Europe, excluding France and Germany, rose 25.9% to 264.6 million euros ($286.2 million). The Americas accounted for 128.1 million euros ($138.7 million), up 17.4% on strength in Brazil and Mexico. Asia-Pacific and Africa contributed 228.9 million euros ($247.8 million), up 14.9%, with China and Japan being particularly strong. India and Southeast Asia grew at slower paces due to those regions being affected by weakness in the ad-supported streaming market.
Revenue for the company’s premium solutions division rose 15.8% to 825.1 million euros ($893.1 million), while the division’s adjusted EBITDA improved 16.8% to 118.3 million euros ($128 million). Premium solutions mainly consists of the sale, promotion, marketing and delivery of digital content for artists and labels. It also includes some physical sales, synchronization services, neighboring rights and music publishing.
In the automated solutions division, revenue increased 14.6% to 55.2 million euros ($59.7 million), and adjusted EBITDA rose 53% to 10.1 million euros ($10.9 million). The slower growth rate was expected, said Dumont, because of lower ad-supported monetization and a new TuneCore pricing structure launched in 2022 that led to lower average revenue per client and was “not yet compensated by the ramp-up in new clients.”
Ladegaillerie has formed a consortium with two of its shareholders, investment firms EQT X and TCV, to take the company private at 15 euros ($16.43) per share. That offer ran into competition last week when WMG revealed its interest in Believe and said it might be willing to pay at least 17 euros ($18.62) per share. The consortium has attempted to speed the process and waive the board’s condition that an independent expert provide a report to Believe’s ad-hoc committee on the offer’s fairness from a financial viewpoint. The parties are now waiting for French financial regulators to say if the consortium can unilaterally waive the independent expert’s report and whether WMG’s preliminary proposal prevents the waiver of the board’s condition.