The Contenders

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 18), Stray Kids aim for their third No. 1 album in two years, while new albums from rising country hitmakers, star producers and veteran rockers also jockey for position.  

Stray Kids, 5-Star (JYP/Republic): Stray Kids have proven themselves among pop’s most consistent performers of any nationality on the Billboard 200 in the past couple years, having topped the chart twice already in 2022 alone, with EPs Oddinary and Maxident. This week, they should have a pretty good shot at making it three in a row with their new 12-track LP, 5-Star.  

Once again, physical sales should drive consumption of the new set, with a variety of available options for fans. That includes 18 total collectible CD packages (with exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart, the Weverse store and a signed edition in the group’s official webstore) that contain artist-branded merch, some of which is standard across all packages and some of which is randomized (photo cards, mini posters, sticker sets, photo books). 

There are also four alternative digital versions of the album, sold only in the act’s webstore, each containing the same tracklists, but with alternative covers and bonus tracks (each with different voice memos from individual members of the group), selling for $6.99 each. After 12 consecutive weeks of Morgan Wallen largely streaming his way to No. 1, we might have our second straight week of sales determining the chart’s top spot, following Taylor Swift’s reissue-prompted Midnights rebound last week.  

Jelly Roll, Whitsitt Chapel (Bailey & Buddee/BBR Music Group): Billboard’s May cover star has yet to get higher than No. 97 on the Billboard 200 – but that should change with the release of Whitsitt Chapel, Jelly Roll‘s first album since pivoting fully to country. The set follows the 2022 breakout success of Ballads of the Broken singles “Dead Man Walking” and “Son of a Sinner” — as well as a star making night at the 2023 CMT Awards, where he took home three trophies — and features a hit of its own with “Need a Favor,” which climbs 40-31 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week.  

Though Jelly Roll streams fairly well, sales should also make up the majority of Whitsitt Chapel’s first-week numbers. To that end, he’s released the album in three vinyl LPs (including a color variant exclusive for Walmart), a standard CD, a signed CD that was sold through his webstore, a digital download (which is discounted to an on-brand $4.20 in his webstore), nine deluxe CD boxed sets that include branded merch and a copy of the CD, and even a “hymnal” Zine/CD package. 

Metro Boomin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Soundtrack From and Inspired by the Motion Picture) (Boominati/Republic): With rave reviews and strong early box office returns, the new Across the Spider-Verse is well on its way to becoming one of the year’s biggest movies – and its soundtrack might not be too far behind. Curated by super-producer Metro Boomin, who most recently topped the Billboard 200 last December with his Heroes &Villains set, the similarly star-studded soundtrack features appearances from such big names as Future, Lil Uzi Vert, 21 Savage, A$AP Rocky, Coi Leray, Nas and Swae Lee.  

The set does not yet have a physical release – it is available for digital download — but it should stream enough to still be a major factor on the chart, with three tracks still in the top 20 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart as of Wednesday. It should also get a nice boost from the mid-week drop of a deluxe edition of the album, boasting an extra six tracks and additional appearances from Dominic Fike, Becky G, Shenseea and more hitmakers.  

IN THE MIX 

Foo Fighters, But Here We Are (Roswell/RCA): The first Foo Fighters album since the shocking death of drummer Taylor Hawkins in early 2022, But Here We Are is led by the Rock & Alternative Airplay-topping single “Rescued,” and has received some of the strongest reviews of the band’s career. The album is not expected to stream in huge numbers, though, and is available in fewer variants than some of its competition: just in black vinyl, white vinyl, CD and cassette versions and as a digital download. 

Enhypen, Dark Blood (Belift Lab/Genie/Stone): Stray Kids aren’t the only Korean boy band expected to make a big impact on the Billboard 200 this week – there’s also septet Enhypen, who previously hit No. 6 on the chart with 2022 EP Manifesto: Day 1. Their new six-track set Dark Blood was released digitally on May 22, but this chart week brings its physical release – which, like 5-Star, includes 17 collectible CD packages (with a number of store exclusives) that contain artist-branded merch, some of which is standard across all packages and some randomized.  

Moneybagg Yo, Hard to Love (Roc Nation/Bread Gang/N-Less/Collective Music Group, Interscope): Moneybagg Yo was set to release new mixtape Hard to Love the previous Friday, but decided not to go up against his “little baby Taylor” and her Midnights reissues. He’s still going to have his work cut out for him rising above the glut of new releases this week, particularly without any kind of physical release – but the Memphis rapper has enjoyed regular success on the Billboard 200 in recent years, with his last three albums all hitting the chart‘s top five, and 2021’s A Gangsta’s Pain reaching the top spot.   

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 11), Morgan Wallen’s 12-week No. 1 faces formidable challenges from a deluxified Taylor Swift blockbuster and a new Lil Durk album. 
Taylor Swift, Midnights (Republic): Remember this one? It’s not as though Taylor Swift’s massive Midnights has ever fallen far from the top spot after its seismic, 1.57 million-unit-moving debut week last October – as recently as the chart dated May 27, it was perched in the runner-up spot. But next week, it may have its best chance yet at getting back to No. 1 since it ceded the Billboard 200‘s top spot to Metro Boomin’s Heroes and Villains set last December.

That’s for several reasons, including new physical and digital re-issues of Midnights that came out last Friday (May 26). For vinyl enthusiasts, she debuted the new Love Potion purple marble variant of Midnights, which is available in independent stores (and was also briefly for preorder sale on her webstore earlier in the week). Fans more comfortable with DSPs and MP3s can get the Til Dawn edition of Midnights, which includes three bonus tracks: another version of the original album’s Lana Del Rey-featuring “Snow on the Beach” (this time with more Lana), a remix of “Karma” featuring buzzy rapper Ice Spice and “Hits Different,” previously available only on the Target-exclusive physical edition of Midnights.

If all that isn’t enough, there’s also Midnights (The Late Night Edition) — which was also very briefly for sale as a digital download on Swift’s webstore, as well as in CD form at her three live shows at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium over the weekend. This version also includes the new takes on “Snow” and “Karma,” and an original bonus cut, “You’re Losing Me,” which is not yet available for streaming. Between all these new editions of Midnights – already one of the best-performing albums of the 2020s — the clock may finally be ticking for Morgan Wallen’s continuous run at No. 1 with One Thing at a Time.  

Lil Durk, Almost Healed (Only the Family/Alamo/Sony): If not for Midnights re-entering the discussion, we’d likely be talking about the latest album from hip-hop superstar Lil Durk as having the best chance of unseating One Thing at No. 1. The Chicago rapper’s Almost Healed is his first LP since last year’s 7220, which brought him to the top of the Billboard 200 for the first time as an unaccompanied solo artist.  

Durk is also riding his biggest Billboard Hot 100 success to date as a lead artist, with Almost Healed’s J. Cole-featuring advance single “All My Life” debuting at No. 2 on the Hot 100 last week. Beyond Cole, the 21-track set also features a wide variety of big-name guests, including Future, 21 Savage, Alicia Keys, Kodak Black, the late Juice WRLD – and even Wallen himself, who teams up again with his old “Broadway Girls” co-star for this album’s “Stand by Me.”  

IN THE MIX 

Kodak Black, Pistolz & Pearlz (Atlantic/Sniper Gang): Speaking of Kodak Black: The Florida rapper is also back, with his own follow-up to a smash 2022 LP (the “Super Gremlin”-featuring Back for Everything) in new set Pistolz & Pearlz. The new album, which has no A-list features and also lacks a physical release (or a lead single on the level of the top five-peaking Hot 100 hit “Gremlin”) may be Kodak’s final one for Atlantic — with the chart-topping rapper inking a new deal in 2022 to move to Capitol after his contract was done.  

Matchbox Twenty, Where the Light Goes (Atlantic): The last time we heard from turn-of-the-century pop/rock superstars Matchbox Twenty, in 2012, they were topping the Billboard 200 with the band’s fourth album, North. A lot has changed about the industry and about the top 40 landscape since, but the group returns this year with fifth album Where the Light Goes and is offering multiple vinyl variants with alternate cover art (as well as cassette, CD and digital releases) for the album, to hopefully still put up a first-week number worthy of the group’s best-selling ‘00s days.  

Tina Turner, All the Best: The Hits (Parlophone): Tina Turner’s death last week at age 83 sent the music industry into mourning, and fans to DSPs and online retailers to consume the legendary performer’s classic catalog. The set of hers that has received the bulk of the attention so far is her 2004 compilation All the Best, which assembles 18 of her signature hits, with most of the focus on her ‘80s and ‘90s solo material. The collection debuts at No. 45 on the Billboard 200 this week and will likely climb even higher in the first full week following her passing.  

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 20), one of the biggest pop stars of the past decade takes his turn attempting to depose Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 200 incumbent before its potential 10th week on top.
Ed Sheeran, – (Subtract) (Asylum/Atlantic): For the fifth and presumably final entry in Ed Sheeran’s mathematical symbols series, Sheeran linked up with writer-producer Aaron Dessner for a personal, stripped-down 14-track set. Subtract lacks the kind of obvious pop singles that bolstered prior albums No.6 Collaborations Project (2019) and = (Equals) (2021), though Midas-touched top 40 maestros Max Martin and Shellback are here (along with dance sensation Fred again..) as co-producers on lead single “Eyes Closed.”  

“Closed” has not yet achieved the kind of Billboard Hot 100 success of previous No. 2-peaking advance singles “I Don’t Care” (with Justin Bieber) and “Bad Habits” — debuting at just No. 26 and sliding down from there. But there is an obvious precedent for this kind of album finding major success even without a big pop hit, courtesy of Sheeran’s old pal Taylor Swift, whose 2020 album Folklore boasted similarly stark songwriting and stripped-down arrangements (also largely produced and co-authored by Aaron Dessner) and still posted blockbuster first-week numbers. And while Sheeran’s latest single might not have impacted pop culture much yet, his name has certainly been all over headlines lately — thanks to the closely watched copyright trial over his alleged infringement of Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On,” on his “Thinking Out Loud,” for which he was found not liable last week.

Since Sheeran’s streaming numbers are not what they  used to be, he’ll need to depend significantly on sales to pass Morgan Wallen’s nine-week No. 1 One Thing at a Time. To that end, – (Subtract) is available in both a standard 14 track edition and a deluxe 18 track edition on DSPs and for digital download, as well as on CD or vinyl. He also has vinyl variants of the standard edition for purchase, including exclusives for Amazon, Barnes & Noble, independent record stores, Target, Urban Outfitters and Walmart. He also has multiple CD editions available in various collectible packages (including a signed CD, an iteration with a lenticular cover, a “textured sand” cover and a “Zine” CD package), and a deluxe boxed set containing a shirt and a signed CD. 

Will it all be enough? One Thing’s numbers have continued to slip, now down to 138,000 equivalent album units in its ninth week at No. 1. However, that number is still comfortably higher than the first-week numbers (118,000 units) posted by Sheeran’s Equals album – which had a big pop smash – so he will need fans to really connect with this highly personal album to earn his fifth No. 1 in a row.  

IN THE MIX 

Le Sserafim, Unforgiven (Source/YG Plus/Geffen): Korean girl group Le Sserafim made its first splash on the Billboard 200 in October 2022 with its No. 14-peaking Antifragile EP – several tracks of which also appear on its first studio album, Unforgiven. The set boasts 11 collectible CD editions — including exclusives for Target, Walmart and Weverse and comes with a standard set of bonus materials , plus randomized photocards – as well as a guest appearance from a chart-topper of yore: the legendary Nile Rodgers of Chic, on the title track.  

Destroy Lonely, If Looks Could Kill (Opium/Interscope/Ingrooves): One of the few real success stories in hip-hop the past year has been the breakthrough of Atlanta rapper Destroy Lonely, whose guitar-heavy “If Looks Could Kill” became a viral sensation in March after taking off on TikTok. The artist’s debut album is named after that hit single, and features 26 guest-free tracks of woozy, grungy trap — which should make the set one of the week’s biggest new streaming successes.  

Various Artists, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3: Awesome Mix Vol. 3 (Hollywood/Marvel Music): The third entry in the popular series of soundtracks the blockbuster Guardians of the Galaxy films sees its faux-mixtape format embracing Generation X-era hits from Radiohead, the Beastie Boys and The Replacements – while also keeping a little of its ‘70s core with classics from Heart, Rainbow and Bruce Springsteen. Currently unavailable on streaming, the set is expected to sell well – and can be purchased in a wide-release standard CD, a Walmart-exclusive CD with a poster packaged inside, a Target-exclusive CD variant with collectible “Guardians” branded trading cards, as well as in vinyl exclusives on Disney Music Emporium’s website, and at Target and Walmart. 

Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Big Machine): You know how this works by now: Taylor Swift announces a new Taylor’s Version re-recording of one of her early albums, and fans stream the originals in anticipation. Speak Now had already enjoyed the chart bump that all of Swift’s studio albums received following the launch of her breathlessly anticipated Eras Tour – climbing to No. 58 on the most recent Billboard 200. Now, after Swift’s revelation that she plans to revisit her third album next, it’s poised for another big leap on the chart. 

The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 12), after sets from a pair of BTS alums fall just short of matching the totals of Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 200 juggernaut, a 13-strong K-pop group looks to take their crack at it.  

SEVENTEEN, 10th Mini Album ‘FML’ (Pledis/YG Plus): It’s a showdown we’ve seen time and time again on the Billboard 200 in recent years: a lengthy album from an artist who dominates streaming vs. a much shorter set from an artist who sells an exceptional amount of physical copies. Many of the albums from the latter category are from K-pop, and we have another entrant this week in the form of the 13-member boy band SEVENTEEN’s latest mini-album, FML.  

The group has climbed closer to the Billboard 200’s apex with each successive release, including a pair of top 10 efforts last year with 4th Album: Face the Sun (No. 7 in June) and that set’s extended repackaged reissue, Sector 17 (No. 4 in August). Helping their sales numbers this time will be an array of different CDs — 14 total, including different exclusives for the act’s official webstore, Barnes & Noble, Target and the Weverse store; all with a standard set of items packaged inside and additional randomized items like postcards, mini posters, bookmarks and stickers. There are also 17 different alternative digital albums on their webstore, each with a different cover. Four of them have two bonus tracks – one instrumental version, one voice member from certain group members – that are different on each album. The remaining 13 alternative digital albums all have the standard tracklist, just with a different cover (one for each of the group members). 

The bar for SEVENTEEN to hit No. 1 might be slightly lower than it was for BTS alums Jimin and Suga last month, as Morgan Wallen’s mighty One Thing at a Time slips below 150,000 equivalent album units for the first time in its eight weeks at No. 1 with its 149,000 May 6 chart (reflecting the tracking week ending April 27). If they can accomplish the feat, SEVENTEEN would become the second Korean pop group to top the Billboard 200 in 2023, following TOMORROW X TOGETHER, which did so in February with The Name Chapter: Temptation in February. 

Jack Harlow, Jackman. (Generation Now/Atlantic): Louisville rapper Jack Harlow made the leap to pop stardom last year with his Billboard Hot 100-topping, Fergie-sampling crossover smash “First Class,” which was followed by the album Come Home the Kids Miss You. Though the star-studded affair – featuring appearances from A-listers Drake, Lil Wayne, Pharrell and Justin Timberlake – peaked at No. 3 on the Billboard 200, it was poorly received critically and failed to produce a second hit on the level of “First Class.”  

Harlow went in a different direction for last week’s semi-surprise-released Jackman., announced just days earlier and titled after his full first name. The set includes just 10 tracks, with no guests or any big pop samples or interpolations that littered his prior album. The currently digital-only set – Harlow’s webstore also has a pre-sale of limited-edition green vinyl version available for August – may not quite do the kind of robust streaming numbers as its predecessor with no big features or previously released hits, but it is drawing much better reviews.  

IN THE MIX 

The National, First Two Pages of Frankenstein (4AD): Cincinnati-via-Brooklyn indie rock vets The National are regular visitors to the Billboard 200’s top 5, having reached there with four consecutive albums dating back to 2010’s High Violet, most recently with 2019’s No. 5-peaking I Am Easy to FInd. A not-so-secret weapon on the new First Two Pages of Frankenstein could help make it five straight: Taylor Swift, now a regular collaborator of band co-founder Aaron Dessner, who features on the album’s “The Alcott.”  

Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Volume 46 (Rhino): Another season, another transmission from the live archives of rock’s most storied jam band. This three-disc set – available in a limited edition of 25,000 copies, as usual for Dave’s Picks – is taken from the Grateful Dead‘s 1972 gig at the Hollywood Palladium, with some copies also including a bonus fourth discs of songs from ‘72 shows in Roosevelt Stadium in New Jersey and Folson Field in Colorado.  

Illenium, Illenium (Warner): The star EDM DJ-producer is better known for his impressive live show – which he’s taking to arenas and stadiums this summer – but Illenium has also had three Billboard 200-charting albums, with the most recent (2021’s Fallen Embers) peaking at No. 49. His new self-titled album is more rock-influenced, and the chart returns so far have been positive, with all seven of its pre-release advance tracks reaching the top 20 of Billboard’s Hot Dance/Electronic Songs chart.