The Contenders
Page: 9
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 18), Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time crashes the Billboard 200 like an asteroid, with its impact likely to be felt for many weeks to come.
Morgan Wallen, One Thing at a Time (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): When Morgan Wallen announced the release date of his new album in late January, every artist with an album scheduled for March probably screamed at their phone. Not only is Wallen’s previous album — the 30-track Dangerous: The Double Album – still sitting in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 a full two years after its 2021 release, but this album was going to be even longer: a whopping 36 tracks, six of which ranked on the Billboard Hot 100 the week of One Thing’s March 3 release.
Unsurprisingly, the album’s streams have been eye-popping. Billboard reported on Wednesday that the set’s collected tracks had scored 315 million official on-demand U.S. streams in its first four days (March 3-6) of release – already the biggest week for any 2023 album, the biggest week for any country album (passing Taylor Swift’s Red (Taylor’s Version)’s debut week in 2021), and a significantly bigger week than Dangerous achieved in its full first week (240 million). Perhaps more impressively, despite not yet being available on vinyl, the set has already sold well: 90,000 copies in its first three days, also more than the 74,000 total Dangerous sold in its debut week (with vinyl available).
As of Tuesday, the album was up to over 350,000 equivalent album units – again, both the best of any 2023 album and better than Dangerous’ full debut (265,000). That means it’s already eclipsed the 318,000 units of the first week of SZA’s 23-track SOS in December, and is not far away from the 404,000 of Drake & 21 Savage’s 16-track Her Loss from that set’s November debut — though it should still fall well short of the 1.578 million posted by Swift’s Midnights earlier that month. (A closer battle will be with the 605,000 units of Swift’s Red (Taylor’s Version) for the biggest first week for any country album of the equivalent album units era, which replaced pure album sales as the Billboard 200’s ranking metric in 2014.)
Then it’s a question of how long the album will hold atop the Billboard 200. It will face a worthy competitor next week with the debut of Miley Cyrus’ 13-track Endless Summer Vacation, led by the six-week Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 “Flowers,” and sets are expected later in the month from big names like Fall Out Boy, Lana Del Rey and fellow country superstar Luke Combs. But Dangerous reigned for its first 10 weeks with a shorter tracklist and a much slower start than One Thing, so any challengers to the throne have their work cut out for them.
IN THE MIX
Kali Uchis, Red Moon in Venus (Geffen/EMI): Red Moon marks acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter Kali Uchis’ first album since crossing over with her TikTok-driven 2021 hit “Telepatía.” First-week album sales for the set should be boosted by a variety of available variants, with three different vinyl LPs (including a salmon-colored vinyl exclusive to Urban Outfitters), a signed CD sold exclusively in her official webstore and four different deluxe boxed sets (two with a T-shirt and a CD, two with a hoodie and a CD).
NCT 127, Ay-Yo – The 4th Album Repackage (SM): Korean pop boy band NCT 127 had a top five hit on the Billboard 200 last fall with their fourth album 2 Baddies – which was repackaged and retitled with three new bonus tracks and released to streaming services and digital retailers in January as Ay-Yo. The set should see big gains this week with its physical release, including three different collectible CDs with randomized elements packaged inside.
Macklemore, Ben (Bendo): For veteran Seattle rapper Macklemore’s first album since 2017’s No. 2-peaking Gemini, he’s pulling out all the stops with the physical variants: different-colored vinyl exclusive to his website and to Urban Outfitters, six boxed sets (with such goodies as posters, hoodies and signed CDs) and even a cassette version. The album has been discounted to $3.50 for the CD and digital version on his webstore.
De La Soul, Three Feet High and Rising (AOI): After a decades-long battle over their catalog, legendary New York rap group De La Soul finally brought their full discography to streaming services last Friday (though, sadly, just weeks after the death of co-founder Trugoy the Dove), along with physical reissues of their six albums on vinyl, CD and cassette. Unsurprisingly, the best-performing of their sets looks to be 1989 debut 3 Feet High and Rising – one of the most acclaimed rap albums ever, thanks to classics like “Me, Myself & I,” “Eye Know” and “Buddy,” — which is available in multiple vinyl variants, and may surpass its original Billboard 200 peak of No. 24.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 11), a number of new releases challenge SZA’s ongoing Billboard 200 supremacy — led by the latest from a Latin pop star looking to accomplish the unprecedented.
Karol G, Mañana Será Bonito (Universal Latino): Karol G might not be a household name among mainstream U.S. audiences, but that could change with the debut of her fourth album. The Latin pop star reached a higher peak on the Billboard 200 with each of her first three albums — 2017’s Unstoppable (No. 192), 2019’s Ocean (No. 54) and 2021’s KG0516 (No. 20) — and last year scored her first two top 25 hits on the Billboard Hot 100, with “Provenza” and her Becky G collaboration “Mamiii.” Now, with last Friday’s (Feb. 24) Mañana Será Bonito, she should be in the mix for the chart’s top spot.
Mañana is currently available on CD and as a digital album — it topped the iTunes albums chart on its day of release — and is helped by the inclusion of streaming smash “Provenza,” as well as Hot 100 hits “Gatúbela’ (with Maldy) and “X Si Volvemos” (with Romeo Santos). But the album’s biggest hit might be brand new: the much-hyped Shakira collaboration “TDQ,” which has been in the top 10 of the daily charts on Spotify, Apple Music, YouTube and iTunes since its release.
If the album does debut at No. 1, it would make history as the first all-Spanish-language album by a female artist to reach the top spot — joining only Bad Bunny (who’s done it twice, with 2020’s El Último Tour del Mundo and 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti) among all artists. She’d also be only the third woman with a mostly non-English language No. 1 album, following Selena (Dreaming of You, 1995) and The Singing Nun (The Singing Nun, 1963). Dreaming of You blended Spanish and English, while The Singing Nun was recorded entirely in French.
Gorillaz, Cracker Island (Parlaphone/Warner): Gorillaz fans have been waiting to take the trip to Cracker Island since the album’s title track came out last June — followed by a steady stream of singles, including the top 20 Hot Rock & Alternative Songs hit “New Gold,” featuring Tame Impala and Bootie Brown. Now, the full 10-track album is finally out, available for sale in over a dozen vinyl variants, box sets, as well as four cassette options. Speaking of Bad Bunny: He graces the album’s “Tormenta,” which should provide a nice boon to the album’s streaming numbers.
Yeat, AfterLyfë (Geffen/Field Trip/Twizzy Rich): One of the most-hyped rappers of the last few years, enigmatic hip-hop sensation Yeat released his third album in three years last week with AfterLyfë. Yeat’s streaming prowess sent 2022’s 2 Alive to No. 6 on the Billboard 200, and the 21-track AfterLyfë seems likely to join it in the chart’s top 10. The album’s lone high-profile guest is the YoungBoy Never Broke Again guest spot on “Shmunk,” however, and it has no physical release currently available for sale.
IN THE MIX
Don Toliver, Love Sick (Cactus Jack/Atlantic): Rapper-singer Don Toliver has been a ubiquitous supporting actor in hip-hop over the past year, showing up on Hot 100 hits from Billboard 200-topping albums by Pusha T (“Scrape It Off” from It’s Almost Dry), Metro Boomin (“Too Many Nights” from Heroes and Villains) and SZA (“Used” from SOS). Now he gets his own shot with Love Sick, which follows 2021’s No. 2-peaking Life of a Don and boasts guest appearances from Justin Bieber, Future, Lil Durk, Brent Faiyaz and other big names.
Godsmack, Lighting Up the Sky (BMG): It’s been two decades since the Massachusetts hard rock band was at its commercial peak, but Godsmack remains a reliable performer on the Billboard 200, sending each of its past six albums to the chart’s top 10. Lighting Up the Sky is the group’s first release since 2018’s No. 8-peaking When Legends Rise – the longest gap between albums in Godsmack’s career — and contains their 12th No. 1 on Billboard’s Mainstream Rock Airplay chart with lead single “I Surrender.”
Gracie Abrams, Good Riddance (Interscope): Gracie Abrams has long cultivated a reputation as your favorite singer-songwriter’s favorite singer-songwriter, and this February she finally put out her debut album, Good Riddance. The album does not yet have any major chart hits to its credit, but it comes with chart-topping pedigree in its primary artistic partner, writer-producer Aaron Dessner – whose frequent collaborator Taylor Swift is taking Abrams out on her impossibly anticipated The Eras Tour this spring.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 4), as SZA’s SOS goes for its 10th week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart, she’ll have to fend off pop’s most acrobatic veteran star, as well as hitmakers from the country and dance worlds.
P!nk, Trustfall (RCA): While P!nk used to be one of top 40’s most ubiquitous figures, she hasn’t reached the Billboard Hot 100’s top 40 since 2017 and her most recent lead single, “Never Gonna Not Dance Again,” has so far toppedout at No. 99. Still, two decades of being a household name — and more recently, a stadium-level touring draw – ensure that P!nk remains a major threat on the Billboard 200. She’s topped the chart with each of her last three albums, most recently 2019’s Hurts 2B Human.
Trustfall will, however, be P!nk’s first album release since the 2020 elimination of ticket bundles from Billboard 200 calculations – sure to affect the first-week numbers for such a top-flight live draw. Helping to make up the sales difference will be the multiple options for physical purchase via P!nk’s webstore, including a limited -edition T-shirt box set, and a “zine-pak” including a CD.
Jordan Davis, Bluebird Days (MCA Nashville): Since Jordan Davis’ 2018 debut album, Home State, he has become one of country’s preeminent hitmakers on both radio and streaming, with four Country Airplay No. 1s and two entries on the all-genre Streaming Songs chart. Both of those latter hits are found on Davis’ sophomore album, Bluebird Days, as well as the currently rising Billboard Hot 100 single “Next Thing You Know.” Bluebird is available for sale in a variety of physical packages on Davis’ webstore.
Skrillex, Quest for Fire / Don’t Get Too Close (Owsla/Atlantic): Skrillex has been one of the most visible dance artists of the last 15 years, just about everywhere except the Billboard 200. Until last week, he’d only released one full-length album, 2014’s No. 4-peaking Recess. But after dropping Quest for Fire and then, as a surprise, Don’t Get Too Close on Saturday, that number of LPs has tripled for the no-longer-bespectacled superproducer.
Both releases came in the midst of a live Skrillex performance blitz in New York – alongside big-name collaborators Four Tet and Fred Again.. — with three surprise gigs at smaller venues (including one “pop-up rave” out of a converted school bus) leading up to the trio’s much-anticipated Saturday night performance at Madison Square Garden, where Close was first announced. The albums are currently streaming, but only available for physical purchase through preorder on the Atlantic webstore, with CDs set to arrive in March, cassettes in April and vinyl in July.
IN THE MIX
Taylor Swift, Lover – Live (Republic): Taylor Swift never got to properly tour behind her 2019 album Lover before the pandemic hit, but before heading out on her Eras Tour, she’s giving fans a taste of what might have been with this live set, taken from her one-off “City of Lover” Paris concert that September. Don’t bother searching for it on Spotify or Apple Music, though – Lover – Live was only made available for limited purchase (on heart-shaped double vinyl) via Swift’s webstore, and already looks to be sold out.
Big Scarr, The Secret Weapon (1017/Atlantic): Signed to Gucci Mane’s 1017 label, Memphis rapper Big Scarr looked to be one of the decade’s rising stars before his death from a prescription drug overdose at age 22 in December. This month, his too-brief legacy is continued with the release of posthumous album The Secret Weapon, a 17-track effort featuring appearances from Gucci, Pooh Shiesty and Key Glock.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 25), as SZA’s SOS starts to approach double-digit weeks atop the Billboard 200, it faces new challengers from a pair of veteran rock bands, as well as an artist whose comeback gig was just watched by over 100 million people.
Paramore, This Is Why (Atlantic): One of the year’s most-anticipated rock releases comes from longtime hitmakers Paramore, who are finishing out their Atlantic Records tenure with its sixth album, This Is Why. The band’s first full-length in six years is led by the hit title track, which recently became its first-ever Alternative Airplay No. 1, and comes on the heels of a media blitz that includes features in NPR and The New Yorker, as well as a Billboard digital cover story. (The group’s last album, 2017’s After Laughter, peaked at No. 6 on the Billboard 200, while their 2013 self-titled album topped the chart.)
This Is Why is expected to sell a significant number of physical copies, with six different vinyl variants available, as well as deluxe boxed sets that contain a T-shirt, along with either a CD or vinyl option. It will need robust sales to make up for the streaming gap between it and SZA’s SOS, which will otherwise score its ninth week atop the Billboard 200. That would break a tie to make it the longest-running No. 1 album from a female artist this decade.
Pierce the Veil, The Jaws of Life (Fearless): Pierce the Veil were one of the most commercially successful post-hardcore bands of the 2010s, and its 2016 set, Misadventures, reached No. 4 on the Billboard 200. The Jaws of Life arrives in the wake of the 2022 lead single “Pass the Nirvana” — which tied 2015’s “The Divine Sorry” as the group’s highest-ever entry on the Hot Rock Songs chart with its No. 21 peak. (It also follows a viral moment for their decade-old Kellin Quinn collaboration “King for a Day,” which took off on TikTok last August.) Jaws‘ sales should be helped by over a dozen vinyl variants available on the band’s webstore.
Rihanna, Anti (Westbury Road/Roc Nation) & Good Girl Gone Bad (Def Jam): As you may have heard, Rihanna recently broke a five-year drought of public performances with a small gig Sunday night. Her Super Bowl Halftime performance, which included over a dozen of her biggest hits was watched by 118 million viewers, many of whom unsurprisingly took to streaming services and music retailers to re-listen to several of the classics she played – and even some she didn’t, based on the way her songs are blanketing the Spotify, Apple Music and iTunes charts.
The impact of the bump for these songs will be felt on the Billboard 200, where five of her albums look set to appear this week – most, if not all, in the chart’s top half. They will likely be led by Rihanna’s two perennial biggest albums: The 2016 Anti (from which she played parts of “Work” and “Kiss It Better”) and 2007’s Good Girl Gone Bad (“Umbrella”). The two releases rank at No. 50 and No. 137 on the current Billboard 200, having spent 354 and 103 weeks on the chart, respectively.
IN THE MIX
Post Malone, Twelve Carat Toothache (Mercury/Republic): Posty’s 2022 album has remained on the Billboard 200 since its No. 2 debut in June , and it’s now at No. 99 in its 36th week on the chart. It should see big gains next week, thanks to its debut on vinyl, which is now available in multiple variants. (Post has also been all over ads for the NBA’s upcoming All-Star Weekend, held in his current home state of Utah, and the and his visibility there could help as well.)
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 18), as TOMRROW X TOGETHER’s new EP drops in sales in its second week, new albums from Shania Twain and Raye look to seize the Billboard 200’s top spot, with SZA’s SOS still lurking.
Shania Twain, Queen of Me (Republic): Few artists in the history of popular music have a resumé of hit albums to match Shania Twain’s: She’s released three RIAA Diamond-certified albums, including 1997’s double-Diamond Come on Over. No one would expect her Queen of Me, released Friday (Feb. 3), to reach similar sales heights decades later — though her last album, 2017’s Now, topped the Billboard 200, albeit with a ticket bundle that undoubtedly contributed to her first-week sales of 134,000.
Twain won’t receive any such boost for Queen of Me — those bundles were eliminated from Billboard chart calculations in Oct. 2020. But she will be helped by multiple vinyl and CD variants, including exclusives for both Target and Walmart (the Target CD has 2 bonus tracks, while Walmart’s CD has an alternate cover). Her webstore and indie retail are also selling a signed CD, while her webstore also has a couple of deluxe box set editions with a signed CD and T-shirt inside. Plus, she’s still riding the momentum from her Netflix documentary Not Just a Girl, which resulted in a catalog-wide spike for the country-pop legend last August.
Raye, My 21st Century Blues (Human Re Sources): After going through a high-profile dispute and breakup with former label Polydor, British soul-pop singer-songwriter Raye went indie and landed the biggest global hit of her career, with the 070 Shake-assisted (and TikTok-launched) heartbreak lament “Escapism.” That single has topped the U.K.’s Official Charts and climbed to No. 22 on the Billboard Hot 100, setting the stage for her debut studio album My 21st Century Blues.
Raye has a couple of vinyl variants available for Blues, including a signed edition sold on her webstore as well as a signed CD and a cassette tape that are also listed for sale there. She and Twain are already locked into a battle for No. 1 in the U.K., so it’s possible that any additional measures — including extra last-minute new promotions and album variants — will spill into their race on the Billboard 200.
Harry Styles, Harry’s House (Erskine/Columbia): The album of the year winner at Sunday’s Grammys may see a gain on the charts this week thanks to renewed streaming interest: Second single “Late Night Talking” was the biggest mover on Spotify’s US Daily Top 200 on Monday, while four other songs re-entered the chart. The album currently sits at No. 13 on the Billboard 200, so the increase will likely be enough to at least get it back into the chart’s top 10. (Beyoncé’s Renaissance is currently 11 spots below it at No. 24 — and in addition to the boost it should receive post-Grammys, that album will also benefit from a spate of “Cuff It” remixes recently released for sale on Bey’s webstore, which were also just made available on digital retailers this Wednesday.)
Lower on the chart, another artist should also benefit from a Grammy bump: best new artist winner Samara Joy. While she’s unlikely to contend in the Styles-Beyoncé regions of the chart, her Linger Awhile album should appear somewhere this week, marking her first-ever entry on the Billboard 200.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 11), SZA’s seven-week Billboard 200 No. 1 SOS faces new competition from best-selling K-pop stars TOMORROW X TOGETHER and career-reinventing albums from Sam Smith and Lil Yachty.
TOMORROW X TOGETHER, The Name Chapter: Temptation (Big Hit/Republic): A five-song EP from a Korean pop group that’s yet to notch a Billboard Hot 100 hit might seem like an unlikely challenger to SZA’s continued Billboard 200 domination. But don’t underestimate the selling power of TOMORROW X TOGETHER, the rising quintet that’s already reached the top five of the Billboard 200 albums chart twice this decade (with 2021 LP The Chaos Chapter: Freeze and 2022 EP Minisode 2: Thursday’s Child), thanks a devoted fanbase willing to spend on physical albums – sometimes in multiple variants.
Plenty of those variants are available this week for new EP The Name Chapter: Temptation, with 14 collectible deluxe CD packages — including exclusive versions for Barnes & Noble, Target and the group’s Weverse webstore, and a signed version via its own official U.S. webstore. Interest in those physical copies appears to still be growing: TXT’s label, Big Hit, reported over 2 million pre-orders worldwide for the new EP.
Sam Smith, Gloria (Capitol): Arguably the most-anticipated major pop release of January arrived last Friday (Jan. 27) with longtime top 40 fixture Sam Smith’s Gloria. The album is Smith’s first since 2020’s Love Goes, and comes off the back of the first Hot 100 No. 1 hit of their career in the Kim Petras collab “Unholy.” With massive buzz-building on TikTok, a harder-edged sound and more sexually suggestive lyrics, the single appeared to successfully modernize Smith for the 2020s.
While the ongoing success of “Unholy” will give Gloria a helpful head start on streaming, whether it will lead the album to a greater chart finish than the No. 5-peaking Love Goes remains to be seen. By mid-week, the only Gloria tracks remaining on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart were “Unholy” and the New Music Friday-leading Calvin Harris and Jessie Reyez collab “I’m Not Here to Make Friends,” while the full set ranks fifth on the iTunes albums sales chart. The album is also available in three vinyl variants — with one a Target exclusive (also available in CD) with two bonus tracks – and in a signed CD via Smith’s webstore.
Lil Yachty, Let’s Start Here (Concrete/Quality Control/Motown): While Atlanta rap star Lil Yachty is coming off his biggest hit of the 2020s in the TikTok-powered “Poland,” the buzzing trap of that 83-second single is hardly indicative of the psychedelic space rock found on his fifth album, Let’s Start Here. The sonic left turn, featuring contributions from renowned alternative artists like Mac DeMarco, Alex G and Foushée, has drawn mixed reviews but heavy online discussion, and may challenge for Yachty’s first top 10 album on the Billboard 200 since 2018’s Lil Boat 2.
IN THE MIX
The Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks, Vol. 45 (Rhino): The latest in the legendary jam band’s Dave’s Picks series, which features live shows selected by Grateful Dead archivist David Lemieux, features a two-date 1977 stop at the Paramount Theater in Portland, Ore. Each of the last five Dave’s Picks have charted in the Nos. 11-15 range on the Billboard 200 and the Dead are still looking for their first top 10 on the chart since In the Dark hit No. 6 in 1987.
Elle King, Come Get Your Wife (RCA): A breakout star in the mid-’10s for jaunty rock crossover hit “Ex’s and Oh’s,” singer-songwriter Elle King decamped to Nashville and embraced country with third album, Come Get Your Wife. So far, so good for King: 2021 Miranda Lambert collab “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home),” found on Wife, topped Billboard’s Country Airplay chart and became her first Hot 100 top 40 hit since “Ex’s.”
Tyler Hubbard, Tyler Hubbard (Hubbard House/EMI): As one-half of Florida Georgia Line, Tyler Hubbard was a regular visitor to the top of Billboard’s country charts, and topped the Billboard 200 with the duo’s 2014 sophomore album, Anything Goes. He didn’t need long into his solo career to establish his own chart-topping prowess: His first unaccompanied single, “5 Foot 9,” featured on his self-titled solo debut album, bested Country Airplay last November.
Bob Dylan, Fragments – Time Out of Mind Sessions (1996-1997) (Legacy Records): The Bootleg Series Vol. 17: With the 25th anniversary approaching of Bob Dylan’s album of the year win for Time Out of Mind at the ’98 Grammys, his latest Bootleg Series installment revisits that comeback effort with a remix of the original set and bonus outtakes, alternate versions and live cuts. The set, which originally peaked at No. 10 on the Billboard 200 in 1997, comes in two-CD and five-CD editions, as well as four-LP and 10-LP box sets.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 4), SZA’s SOS remains in the driver’s seat on the Billboard 200 albums chart, but runs into new albums by country hitmaker HARDY, prolific rapper Trippie Redd and rock revivalists Måneskin.
HARDY, The Mockingbird & The Crow (Big Loud). Few country radio fixtures know as much about how to succeed in an era dominated by hip-hop- and streaming as Michael Wilson Hardy. The genre-blending singer-songwriter has collaborated with countless artists, released several mixtapes, and generally been as prolific as any popular rapper over the past half-decade – while remaining a steady chart presence, with Hot 100 top 40 hits in the past year alongside Breland and Dierks Bentley (“Beers on Me”) and Lainey Wilson (“Wait in the Truck.”)
The latter single can be found on HARDY’s 17-track The Mockingbird & The Crow set, released last Friday (Jan. 27), as part of the album’s country-oriented A-side – with its second half taking on a hard rock bent. The album appears to be selling well digitally, leading the iTunes albums chart for most of the week. If it does claim the Billboard 200’s No. 1 position, it would be the first country album to do so since Dangerous: The Double Album, the blockbuster 2021 chart-topper from Morgan Wallen – who, incidentally, is also featured on Mockingbird’s “Red.”
Trippie Redd, Mansion Musik (1400 Entertainment/10K Projects). One of the great volume shooters of hip-hop’s past five years, Trippie Redd returned from an unusually lengthy two-year album break last week with the 25-track Mansion Musik. The set consists entirely of previously unreleased material, and is predictably loaded with A-list guests, including Future, Lil Baby, Travis Scott, Lil Durk, and even the late Juice WRLD — who appears on “Knight Crawler,” which led Spotify’s most recent New Music Friday playlist. Each of Trippie’s past six full-length projects have reached the Billboard 200’s top five, and Mansion Musik should have a good chance to extend its streak to seven.
Måneskin, Rush (Epic/Sony). Italian fourpiece Måneskin parlayed a Eurovision win into global rock stardom in 2021 – boosted by TikTok-accelerated crossover success for a cover of The Four Seasons’ “Beggin’” and a series of incendiary live performances on U.S. television. About a year and a half later, the band has finally released its English-language debut album Rush, featuring their rock radio hit “Supermodel” and contributions from pop-rock super-writer-producers like Rami Yacoub, Mattman & Robin and Max Martin.
Måneskin are still relatively modest performers among big hitmakers when it comes to U.S. streaming, so their Billboard 200 performance will likely largely be dictated by sales. To that end, the quartet has released a variety of physical variants of Rush, with vinyl, CD and cassette versions, and a box set edition that collects all three formats, along with a poster and 64-page photobook. The group has also made old-fashioned record store promotional appearances during the album’s release week, including New York-area shops Rough Trade NYC and Looney Tunes.
IN THE MIX
Ice Spice, Like…? (10K Projects/Capitol): One of the most buzzed-about new rappers of 2022 arrives with her first EP, named after her “Like..?” mini-catchphrase. The six-track set includes Ice Spice‘s internet-conquering breakout tracks “Munch (Feelin’ U)” and “Bikini Bottom,” as well as the new, Lil Tjay-featuring “Gangsta Boo,” and the currently ascending TikTok favorite “In Ha Mood.”
Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young, Déjà Vu (Atlantic): Following the death of ‘60s rock legend David Crosby, the enduring material he was involved with as part of The Byrds and Crosby, Stills, Nash & Young have naturally surged in sales and streams. The biggest beneficiary so far appears to be CSNY’s 1970 classic Déjà Vu, featuring signature songs like “Teach Your Children,” “Our House” and “Helpless” — though the latter is one of several Déjà Vu tracks not currently available on Spotify, due to songwriter Neil Young’s continued protests of the streaming service.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Jan. 28), SZA’s SOS is expected to easily fend off challengers on the Billboard 200, but there will be more of a contest to reach the top of the Billboard Hot 100, where she faces stiff competition from Taylor Swift, Miley Cyrus and Shakira & Bizarrap as she seeks her first No. 1.
SZA, “Kill Bill” (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA): As SZA’s SOS spends its fifth week atop the Billboard 200, her biggest single yet climbs to a new peak of No. 2 on the Hot 100 (dated Jan. 21) this week. The melancholy (and murderous) “Kill Bill” has ruled Billboard’s Streaming Songs chart for three weeks now, and it’s now also gaining at radio, debuting this week at No. 24 on Pop Airplay and No. 48 on R&B/Hip-Hop Songs Airplay.
However, “Bill” has yet to appear on the 50-position all-genre Radio Songs listing, which Taylor Swift’s “Anti-Hero” — the eight-week Hot 100 No. 1 currently keeping SZA from the top spot — has ruled for four weeks. (Still, “Bill” is just below the survey this week and likely to debut next week.) Also to help get the breakout hit over the top and score the first Hot 100 No. 1 of her career, SZA released a new four-song “Kill Bill” pack to streaming services last Friday (Jan. 13), adding sped-up, instrumental and a cappella versions to the original — all of which are currently for sale on her website, and discounted to 69 cents.
Miley Cyrus, “Flowers” (Columbia): Whether or not “Bill” overtakes “Anti-Hero” this week, it could face entirely new roadblocks in a pair of much-hyped singles that came out last week. The bigger of those is likely “Flowers,” Friday’s first taste of veteran pop star Miley Cyrus’ upcoming Endless Summer Vacation album that’s due in March. Produced by regular Harry Styles collaborators Kid Harpoon and Tyler Johnson, the mid-tempo kiss-off immediately won fans for its sunny pop-rock groove, self-reliant message and Bruno Mars-echoing (possibly Liam Hemsworth-referencing?) chorus.
After the song went viral on TikTok over the weekend, it bounded to the top of both the Spotify and Apple Music daily charts, as well as the iTunes song sales chart — and top 40 has also quickly seized onto the track, with a splashy debut sure to come on Radio Songs next week. It’s the kind of multi-platform dominance that has largely eluded Cyrus, despite her continued household-name status, over the past decade; she hasn’t reached higher than No. 8 on the Hot 100 (as an added performer to The Kid LAROI’s “Without You” remix in 2021) since she topped the chart in 2013 with “Wrecking Ball,” her sole No. 1 so far.
But Cyrus’ timing is right with “Flowers” — released last Thursday, Jan. 12 at 7 p.m. EST, five hours ahead of the tracking week for next week’s Hot 100. She’s taking advantage of an early-year pop landscape that’s relatively light on impactful new releases, as evidenced by the Hot 100’s top 40 currently being overrun by songs from 2022 (or even longer ago). But just as importantly, she’s riding positive momentum from her popular and well-received Miley’s New Year’s Eve Party NBC special, in which she dueted on old hits with godmother Dolly Parton and teased new music to come, with her full album announcement arriving less than a week later. It all adds up to Cyrus having her best shot in 10 years at a return trip to No. 1 next week.
Bizarrap & Shakira, “Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53” (Dale Play): Before “Flowers” arrived, the buzziest debut of last week was easily Shakira’s incendiary team-up with in-demand Argentine DJ/producer Bizarrap. The propulsive electro-pop banger lit up the internet upon its release last Wednesday (Jan. 11, at 7 p.m. ET), particularly for its shots-fired lyrics aimed directly at the superstar’s footballer ex-husband Gerard Piqué. “Vol. 53” quickly surged to No. 1 on YouTube’s Trending chart, and also reached the top 10 and top 20 on the daily Spotify and iTunes U.S. charts, respectively.
Despite coming out six days into the prior tracking week, “Vol. 53” already debuts on several Billboard charts this week, including an impressive No. 12 bow on the Global 200. It misses out on the Hot 100, but with its streaming momentum staying strong, it’s certain to crash the chart next week. However, with stateside radio not yet embracing the Spanish-language track as much as it has “Flowers” and “Kill Bill,” it may end up lagging behind those front-runners.
Taylor Swift, “Anti-Hero” (Republic): While the threats to its reign are numerous, you can’t count out Taylor Swift and her incumbent eight-week No. 1. Swift and her team have made all the right moves to extend the Midnights single’s reign to career-best lengths, including releasing a number of remixes for the track for sale exclusively on her website — and, most recently, discounting those remixes to 69 cents from last Monday to Thursday (Jan. 9-12). Does she have any last-second tricks up her sleeve for this chart week?
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 14): SZA’s SOS continues to dominate, while YoungBoy Never Broke Again makes a quick return after a busy 2022 and a half-decade-old BTS album debuts on vinyl.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, I Rest My Case (Motown/Never Broke Again): After an absurdly prolific 2022 that included seven full-length releases – two collaborative albums, four mixtapes and one official album – star rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again returns, just two weeks into 2023, with his fifth solo studio album, I Rest My Case. The 19-track set is his first release on his new Motown label, after completing his deal with Atlantic in 2022.
From the early returns, YoungBoy’s previous productivity may be working against him, since the album’s tracks have not taken over the daily DSP charts like past YoungBoy solo albums, the last three of which hit the Billboard 200’s top two. Case will also not be helped by any big-name guests, since the album has no features on its 11 tracks. It will have its work cut out for it getting YoungBoy back to the chart’s top five, let alone threatening the four-week reign of SZA’s SOS blockbuster, which shows little sign of slowing down in its fifth week.
BTS, Love Yourself: Her (Big Hit/Universal): The Love Yourself: Her EP release marked a big U.S. breakthrough for K-Pop superstars BTS back in 2017, reaching the Billboard 200’s top 10 and spawning their first two Billboard Hot 100 hits in “DNA” and “Mic Drop.” The EP is likely to return to the chart’s top tier after making its physical debut on vinyl — the septet’s first-ever release on the format — along with a package that includes seven photo cards (one for each member), two posters, a sticker and a bookmark.
French Montana & DJ Drama, Coke Boys 6 (Coke Boys): Outside of YoungBoy, few hip-hop artists were as prolific on the 2022 charts as DJ Drama, who notched hit albums alongside Jeezy, Snoop Dogg and several other big-name rappers. He’s back this week with veteran New York hitmaker French Montana, for the latest installment in the latter’s signature Coke Boys series. CB6 boasts 20 tracks and a wide variety of big-name guests, including fellow rap stars Kodak Black, Nav and A$AP Rocky, and the set already has its own Money Heist Edition deluxe reissue, adding an extra nine tracks to the total.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 14): SZA’s SOS kicks off 2023 as the album still to beat, while sets from ATEEZ and Fuerza Regida freshen up the chart.
SZA, S.O.S. (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA). After five years, SZA’s second album had a blockbuster No. 1 debut in December, with 318,000 equivalent album units. The album, which built on SZA’s accelerating momentum over that layover period (including viral solo hits and appearances on radio smashes from Kendrick Lamar and Doja Cat), is still putting up huge numbers in early 2023, just spending its third week at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with over 100,000 units. SOS seems likely to spend winter 2023 how Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti spent last summer and Taylor Swift’s Midnights spent last autumn – as the chart’s default No. 1 for any week where there isn’t a major new release to depose it.
When might that first major new release come? Star rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again announced this week that his I Rest My Case album would come out Jan. 6, as the first release from his new Motown home – though releasing seven full-length projects in 2022 seems to have slowed his chart momentum. Still, 2022’s first two major releases (Gunna’s DS4ever and The Weeknd’s Dawn FM, both released Jan. 7) were both announced mere days before release, so the first big bow of 2023 may well be an album we don’t know about yet.
ATEEZ, Spin Off: From the Witness (KQ Entertainment/RCA) Eight-member K-pop boy band ATEEZ scored a major chart breakthrough last summer with The World EP.1: Movement, which debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200. New set Spin Off: From the Witness may follow Movement to the chart’s top tier – boosted, of course, by at least six different collectible CD variants (including one signed by the group), each containing a set of standard branded paper goods and randomly chosen items (like photocards and posters).
Fuerza Regida, Sigan Hablando (Rancho Humilde/Street Mob). Regional Mexican quintet Fuerza Regida landed their first Billboard Hot 100 hit this week with the TikTok-boosted Grupo Frontera collab “Bebe Dame,” which debuts at No. 91. That song is found on the group’s latest album, Sigan Hablando (released Dec. 28), which should ride the “Bebe” bump to their first entry on the Billboard 200 – though the group has already reached the Top Latin Albums chart five times, and spent 18 weeks atop the Regional Mexican Albums chart in 2022 with their Del Barrio Hasta Aqui set.