subscription prices
In the last four months, two of the three major labels have seen their stock price punished for missing expectations of subscription growth — effectively sending the message that in 2024, delivering substantial revenue gains isn’t enough. In its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday (Nov. 21), Warner Music Group (WMG) revealed streaming growth of 8.2%, which was below some analysts’ estimates — helping explain why the company’s share price fell 7.4% on Thursday and erased approximately $1.29 billion of market value. The same thing happened to Universal Music Group in July — albeit to a far greater extent — when its lower-than-expected second-quarter subscription growth led to a 24% drop in its share price despite total revenue climbing 8.7%.
To say analysts and investors place a great deal of attention on streaming growth is an understatement. During WMG’s earnings call on Thursday, six of the 10 questions from analysts concerned subscription revenue, including topics such as drivers of expected growth, the setting of wholesale rates and how streaming royalties are calculated and distributed. That’s because analysts — and the investors they speak to — know that platforms such as Spotify and YouTube are critical to record labels and publishers’ fortunes.
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Judging from their introductory remarks, WMG and UMG would rather talk about their companies’ global expansions. On Thursday, WMG CEO Robert Kyncl highlighted the company’s focus on India, a country of 1.4 billion that he called “more like a continent than a country.” Currently dominated by ad-supported streaming, India has the fifth-largest gross domestic product but ranks just 14th amongst recorded music markets. But Kyncl said he believes the country “will become an increasingly influential global force in the music business,” adding that WMG is “well positioned to keep taking market share” through acquisitions and partnerships. Meanwhile, during UMG’s latest earnings call on Oct. 31, CEO Lucian Grainge talked about acquisitions, partnerships and expansions in emerging markets such as China, Thailand and Nigeria.
Constantly pulled back to the topic of music subscriptions, Kyncl and WMG CFO Bryan Castellani attempted to quell any concerns that streaming growth is petering out, explaining how WMG intends to obtain high, single-digit subscription revenue growth even as that growth has been slowing. Relatively few Americans have a music streaming subscription, at least when compared to streaming video-on-demand (SVOD) options such as Netflix; during the call, Kyncl noted that subscription penetration in the U.S. is 30% while SVOD services are at 50%. “There’s a lot more to grow in United States for music,” he said.
Lately, though, the success of music streaming platforms has looked one-sided. The licensees, not the licensors, appear to be keeping most of the spoils of price increases and subscriber acquisitions. As one WMG analyst put it, the major labels’ content is a must-have for digital service providers (DSPs) such as Spotify, but “a lot of value has instead accrued to the DSPs” rather than content owners. At least by one measure, Spotify has reaped the benefits of price increases far more than major labels. Since Spotify announced its first U.S. price increase on July 23, 2023, its share price has risen 177%, compared to 3% for UMG and 4% for WMG.
To level the playing field and reap more of the benefits of subscription music’s popularity, WMG intends to tweak pricing — which it believes the labels will benefit from — to help drive continued subscription growth. For starters, the company expects improvements to come from the launch of a high-priced subscription tier for superfans that Spotify CEO Daniel Ek said in July could cost $17 or $18 per month. Kyncl and Castellani also pointed to changes in wholesale prices that would establish per-subscriber minimums to reduce the discounts given to family plans and other multi-user accounts. “With both subscriber growth and opportunities for wholesale price increases, the formula for streaming growth is strong and there’s plenty of room for acceleration,” said Kyncl.
The U.S. and other mature streaming markets will deliver subscription growth more immediately than emerging markets still dominated by ad-supported streaming. But over the long term, said WMG, high-growth, emerging markets like India have substantial potential. As Kyncl explained, WMG is betting on countries like India that have rising gross domestic product (GDP) because advertising spending will increase as GDP increases —and rising GDP will eventually translate to more subscribers. Again, Kyncl talked about closing the gap between music and TV; in India, he put the number of music subscribers at 15 million and the number of households with TVs at 100 million.
Streaming has shaped today’s music business. WMG and UMG would not have gone public had it not transformed a once-moribund industry. Investors wouldn’t have poured money into Hipgnosis Songs Fund and other investment funds were it not generating massive royalties for aging catalogs. And prominent institutional investors such as Blackstone and Pimco would not be so enthusiastic about music assets if streaming couldn’t open new markets around the world.
That strong enthusiasm has created high expectations, though, and labels’ mandate to deliver high, single-digit subscription growth is going to transform streaming in the years to come. Prices will be higher. Streaming services will launch high-priced superfan tiers. And if the labels have their way, ad-supported on-demand streaming would no longer be free. However things shake out, the majors seem confident they can deliver.
Shares of Spotify rose as high as $317.00, up 6.8% from the previous day’s closing price, after the company announced Monday (June 3) that it will raise subscription prices in the United States. The stock closed on Monday at $310.80, up 4.7%, bringing its year-to-date gain to 65.4%. Price increases have done wonders for Spotify’s […]
Spotify is asking users to take another hike, raising premium subscription prices in the United States for a second consecutive year. Starting in July, Spotify’s premium individual plan in the U.S. will increase a dollar to $11.99 a month and the duo plan will jump a buck to $16.99 a month, while the family plan will leap-frog $3 to $19.99 a month. The student plan will remain $5.99 a month.
“On Spotify, users discover and enjoy music, podcasts, and audiobooks,” the company said in its announcement on Monday (June 3). “So that we can continue to invest in and innovate on our product features and bring users the best experience, we occasionally update our prices.”
In July 2023, the company enacted similar increases though the family plan was raised just a dollar from $15.99 to $16.99. Last year’s bump in its individual subscription price was a change of pace for Spotify after holding steady at $9.99 in the U.S. for a dozen years. For most of its existence, the company focused on rapid subscription growth over profits, though the mood has since shifted, with major labels and others welcoming price hikes as streaming’s importance to their bottom lines continues to increase.
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How important? In the U.S, subscriptions accounted for 59.3% of total recorded music revenues in 2023, up from 57.8% in 2022. Globally, subs accounted for 48.9% of recorded music revenue in 2023, according to the IFPI, up from 48.3% in 2022.
Label leaders are open about wanting higher subscription prices. In early May, Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl called for “further increases” to subscription prices to “ensure that the value that music provides to these platforms is properly recognized,” and Sony Music Entertainment CEO Rob Stringer recently called on streaming services with ad-supported tiers — ie, Spotify — to start charging a “modest fee.”
In April, Bloomberg reported that Spotify would raise its prices in select markets, including the U.K. and Australia, and that the U.S. would soon follow. Spotify’s willingness to raise prices in consecutive years pleased investors, and shares jumped 17.6% that week. Today’s announcement that it would again raise fees in its largest market has Spotify’s stock up nearly 6% in pre-market trading.
The price increase comes at the end of a “period of relative peace” between Spotify and music publishers following the former’s decision to pay the latter — and songwriters — a discounted rate for streams on several tiers. Spotify reasoned that by adding audiobooks to premium offerings like individual, duo and family plans, these subscriptions are now “bundles,” a type of plan that qualifies for a discounted rate on U.S. mechanical royalties given that multiple products are offered under one price. According to Billboard estimates, that change will mean publishers and writers will earn about $150 million less in royalties over the course of its first bundled year.
In response, the NMPA sent the company a cease and desist for alleged unlicensed content and the Mechanical Licensing Collective (MLC) filed a lawsuit explicitly about the bundling. In addition, the Recording Academy, Association of Independent Music Publishers (AIMP), Nashville Songwriters’ Association International (NSAI) and more have made statements against the change.
Spotify said on Monday (July 24) it is raising the price of its premium individual plan by $1 in North America, Europe and Asia amid widespread calls from investors, analysts and the music industry to join other streaming platforms that have raised prices. “The market landscape has continued to evolve since we launched,” Spotify said […]
Spotify will raise the price of an individual subscription in the United States by $1 — from $9.99 to $10.99 — according to a report Friday (July 21) at the Wall Street Journal. The move has been widely expected by investors and analysts following numerous comments by Spotify executives about an eagerness to raise the […]
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