Robert Kyncl
Warner Music Group (WMG) reported earnings on Thursday (Nov. 21), and there was much that its executives wanted to discuss beyond the usual profitability metrics and balance sheet management. On a call with financial analysts, CEO Robert Kyncl discussed Warner’s recent reorganization — how it built a simpler, flatter, faster structure, according to him — as well as why he’s so confident that streaming revenues will continue to deliver strong growth and the company’s M&A and internal investment plans.
Here are some of the highlights.
Bullish on subscription streaming growth
Trending on Billboard
WMG executives said they expect subscription streaming revenue to continue to grow by high single-digit increases, and analysts peppered them with questions about how they will achieve that. WMG CFO Bryan Castellani said that roughly 70% of that growth will come from more people paying for music streaming subscriptions everywhere — from markets like the United States, where many already pay to stream music, to places like India, where far fewer people do so but where there is much room for growth. To bolster his argument, Castellani pointed to the 70 to 80 million new subscribers he says began paying for streaming subscriptions in the past year.
Additionally, WMG gained a greater share of the most streamed songs thanks to popular releases from Rosé, Bruno Mars, Teddy Swims, Benson Boone, Charli XCX, Zach Bryan and others. Kyncl said WMG’s market share of the Spotify 200 has increased by 10 percentage points since he became CEO.
The final reason for their optimism is the various price increases at the DSPs that Kyncl believes his side will benefit from, including things like higher wholesale prices earned off of family plans and other multi-user subscription streaming plans that currently get discounts; higher-priced subscriptions for super fans; and premium audio or further audience segmentation. “Wholesale prices generally go up,” Kyncl said. “It may not have happened that way in music in the past, but it is how it happens in 99% of industries. We are just trying to align with the way the world works.”
Elliot Grainge’s Star Rises Inside and Outside WMG
Kyncl kicked off the call with comments about WMG’s recent restructuring, which included promoting Elliot Grainge, the founder of the independent label 10K Projects and son of Universal Music Group chairman/CEO Lucian Grainge, to lead the renowned Atlantic Records Group. Kyncl described Atlantic and Warner Records as “important twin engines of growth” and said Elliot’s team has “an impressive ability to discover extraordinary talent across multiple genres and find fresh ways [to make them] stand out from the crowd.” Kyncl added that Warner Records, under the leadership of Aaron Bay-Schuck and Tom Corson, is adroit at driving hits and creating superstars.
“I cannot stress enough how exhilarating it is to watch the creative success of both Warner Records and Atlantic are having,” Kyncl said.
An analyst later asked Kyncl what it is about Grainge that worked at 10K and if that will translate to future success at Atlantic, acknowledging that Grainge “has stepped into a much larger, broader and important role.”
Kyncl said 10K has demonstrated “phenomenal growth from top line to bottom line” since Warner began a joint venture with the independent label last year, and he thinks Grainge and his team’s digitally native approach gives Warner an edge for how music is being consumed and shared and how artists are being discovered today.
Kyncl also praised Grainge for his intensity — “I love that about him” — and said he takes strong points of view when making decisions, adding that doing so appeals to talent.
The silver lining of cost cuts
Cutting costs, reducing its headcount and restructuring some label groups saved an estimated $260 million on an annualized basis, WMG said in September — money Kyncl says is now freed up for dealmaking and internal investments.
“Our focus on efficiency has freed up capital, enabling us to increase our investments in growth opportunities,” Kyncl said in prepared remarks.
WMG also increased investment in A&R by around 11%, allowing it to sign more new artists and songwriters and to make more catalog acquisitions.
Additionally, WMG continues to explore companies to acquire that could fill a need within its larger companies — so-called bolt-on acquisitions. Billboard reported in June that WMG is shopping for an alternative distribution company, and it poached Goldman Sachs investment banker Michael Ryan-Southern this summer to lead M&A; WMG’s companies around the globe are now exploring the gaps in their services and looking to Ryan-Southern’s team for suggestions on acquisitions to fit those needs. The company is also exploring the launch, with equity partners and debt facilities, of a catalog acquisition platform and fund for artist advances, sources tell Billboard.
Warner Music Group (WMG) reported strong quarterly profit growth on Wednesday (Aug. 7) thanks to lower costs and solid revenue gains from streaming subscriptions and digital — which helped offset a drop in physical revenue due to release timing and a difficult year-ago comparison, according to the company. All of that led to a boost in the company’s stock, which had risen nearly 2% by the end of trading on Wednesday (though some of those gains were shaved on Thursday).
“Our strong subscription streaming growth in [the third quarter] was driven by the performance of our music and healthy industry trends,” Warner Music Group chief executive Robert Kyncl said in a statement. He added, “Our commitment to long-term artist development, combined with a flatter structure in recorded music, will enable us to super-serve talent and set WMG up for sustained future growth.”
Trending on Billboard
Here’s what else you should know about the third-largest music company’s latest quarterly earnings call.
A positive note on the company’s strategic reorganization
Kyncl kicked off the call by thanking outgoing leaders Max Lousada and Julie Greenwald and welcoming incoming Atlantic Music Group CEO Elliot Grainge while providing more detail on how WMG’s recently announced global structure will work.
“We’re making changes from a position of strength, and I’m happy to say that we’re firing on all cylinders across new releases, catalog, distribution and publishing,” Kyncl said. Read more about his comments here.
Strong subscription growth across streamers
Overall streaming revenue was up 5% for WMG this quarter, with recorded music streaming revenue up 8.7% — reflecting growth in subscription revenue of 7%. That was welcome news to investors: Warner’s stock spiked around 6% earlier in the trading session on Wednesday before settling at a gain of nearly 2%.
On the call, Kyncl was asked about the sources of WMG’s subscription streaming revenue after other music companies reported less stellar growth on that metric this quarter. That included Universal Music Group (UMG), which saw a 24% drop in its share price after reporting that overall streaming revenue fell 4.2%, leading UMG executive vp of digital strategy Boyd Muir to suggest that streamers like Apple Music and Amazon Music are struggling to add new subscribers.
Kyncl said WMG’s revenue mix has remained largely the same and cautioned the financial community to resist viewing Spotify as a proxy for the music industry. “It’s much more diversified [than Spotify],” Kyncl said.
WMG’s subscription streaming revenue is projected to grow in the fourth quarter, with that growth remaining “consistent across our handful of top DSPs, certainly led by subscriber growth and … price,” said CFO Bryan Castellani.
In a nod to the music industry’s handwringing over Spotify’s bundling practice, Kyncl said in opening remarks that the labels and DSPs are not “adversaries playing a zero-sum game.”
“That’s simply not the case,” Kyncl said. “We’re actively engaged with our partners around ways to drive growth for all of us. Streaming dynamics remain healthy, with plenty of headroom for subscriber growth in both established and emerging markets across multiple partners. Also, price optimization and improvements in the royalty models will provide ongoing opportunities for additional growth.”
Celebrating Brat summer and the Benson boon
From the “pop sensation of the summer” — Kyncl’s description of Charli XCX’s album Brat — to Benson Boone, whom Kyncl called the “breakout star of the year,” the former YouTube exec appeared pleased with Warner’s recent and upcoming slate of music releases.
“So far in 2024, WMG has more new artists debuting on the Spotify Global Top 10 than any other music company,” Kyncl said, highlighting “homegrown successes” like Benson Boone, Teddy Swims and Artemas, the English-Cypriot singer-songwriter signed to 10K Projects.
Streaming’s catalog “halo effect“
When Twenty One Pilots released their latest album, Clancy, the band’s entire body of work benefitted, with streams more than doubling during the first week after the album’s release. That’s “the beauty of streaming,” Kyncl said on the call. “Newly released hits have a halo effect on the rest of an artists’ catalog.”
While loyal fan bases can drive an uptick in an artist’s catalog streams after a new hit’s release, Kyncl added that WMG can amplify and extend that halo effect, transforming hits into “evergreen, deep catalog.”
Warner Music Group’s stock was up around 3% Wednesday (Aug. 7) as investors optimistically received its fiscal third-quarter earnings report, which showed that streaming revenue continues to grow for the third-largest major music company.
On a call discussing the company’s earnings, Warner Music Group (WMG) CEO Robert Kyncl answered questions and shared his perspective on Spotify’s bundling controversy; discussed what WMG is doing to get more mileage out of its catalog; and shared a broad update on the company’s previously-announced $200 million cost savings/reinvestment plan — while remaining mum on the more recent executive restructure that’s been reverberating through the music industry since last week.
See below for three major takeaways from the call.
Trending on Billboard
Bundling is not inherently bad
Overall streaming revenue was up 5% for Warner this quarter, with recorded music streaming revenue up 8.7% — reflecting growth in subscription revenue of 7%. While that was welcome news to investors, the subject of Spotify’s contentious decision to bundle music and audiobooks — allowing them to qualify for the lower mechanical royalty rate reserved for bundles under the Copyright Royalty Board’s (CRB) Phonorecords IV agreement — did not go unmentioned. But in his opening remarks and later, during a Q&A period with analysts, Kyncl said the company derives its streaming earnings from a diversity of partners and appeared to tamp down talk of the controversy that erupted over the bundling policy.
“I know that investor attention has recently been focused on the dynamics between labels and DSPs, with some speculating that we’re adversaries playing a zero-sum game. That’s simply not the case,” Kyncl said. “We’re actively engaged with our partners around ways to drive growth for all of us. Streaming dynamics remain healthy … with plenty of headroom for subscriber growth in both established and emerging markets … across multiple partners. Also, price optimization and improvements in the royalty models will provide ongoing opportunities for additional growth.”
Kyncl went on to note that bundling, which could result in lower payments to songwriters, has been used in other industries, like TV, for the purpose of market expansion. “The job of wholesalers like the music companies is to ensure that the sanctity of our pricing are in line with each other. You can expect us to pursue that strategy,” Kyncl said. “As it relates to CRB, I don’t see it as something that will persist in the long term.”
Radio silence on executive restructuring
WMG executives did not directly discuss the internal restructuring plans made public last week, which led longtime co-leader of Atlantic Records and Atlantic Music Group chairman/CEO Julie Greenwald to announce she was stepping down on Tuesday (Aug. 6). During his opening remarks, Kyncl did highlight the “commercially and creatively … successful” partnership between WMG and 10K Projects — whose CEO/founder Elliot Grainge has been picked to succeed Greenwald — by noting English-Cypriot singer-songwriter Artemas’ single “I Like The Way You Kiss Me,” which reached No. 1 on Billboard‘s Global Excl. U.S. chart in April.
However, Kyncl did share details about a restructuring plan he mentioned on WMG’s last earnings call, which included selling the entertainment websites Uproxx and HipHopDX — with the overall goal to increase investment in music, technology and new skill sets and deliver $200 million in savings by the end of fiscal 2025.
“The majority of changes have already been implemented,” Kyncl said. “We are laying a strong foundation to accelerate our progress and yield greater value over time. We made improvements to our royalty systems and the tools used to identify unclaimed revenue, we overhauled our global supply chain, unlocking our ability to scale our third-party distribution business, and we’ve transformed our proprietary tools that identify fan trends while building new ways to engage with super fans.”
Catalog optimization is a major priority
One area where Kyncl is investing in technology is through a project he says is aimed at increasing the “performance of catalog…across all of our DSPs.”
Speaking of recent spikes in streaming for artists in Warner’s “deep” catalog — like Joni Mitchell and Tracy Chapman — as well as “shallow” catalog like Ed Sheeran, Kyncl said generating continued digital success stories for those acts is a top priority.
“We have a project on this across our technology and business teams to move down the entire catalog and make sure it’s properly optimized for streaming and on every large DSP,” he said on the call. “All of this augments our marketing campaigns against catalog which we have done in the past and continue to do and we’re applying more and more frontline focus on catalog.”
The buzzword from music company CEOs so far in 2024? Superfans.
Already this year, the heads of Warner Music Group, Universal Music Group, Spotify and Live Nation have announced an intention to lean into better serving superfans of artists, with new initiatives and already one investment deal on the table. And today (Feb. 27), at the Web Summit conference in Doha, Qatar, WMG CEO Robert Kyncl announced that Warner would be building a new platform aimed at better connecting its artists with their biggest fans.
“Something we’re working on at Warner are these direct to superfan experiences,” Kyncl said, speaking on stage alongside newly-signed Warner artist Nora Fatehi. “I’ve assembled a team of incredible technology talent who are working on an app where artists can connect directly with their superfans, who are generally the people that consume the most and spend the most… and we’re focused on making sure that artists get data on these superfans.”
Kyncl hinted at the new platform, which is still early in development, in his New Year’s note to staff in January, where he said, “We need to develop our direct artist-superfan products and experiences,” adding that some things were already in the works. “Both artists and superfans want deeper relationships, and it’s an area that’s relatively untapped and under-monetized,” he said.
Trending on Billboard
The details of Warner’s app are still vague, though a source said more information should be coming in the next few weeks, and Kyncl mentioned something rolling out later this year. But already there are apps and platforms, such as WeVerse and Stationhead, that have done significant work in capturing the superfan community, connecting artists — including some of Warner’s biggest artists — directly with their biggest fans.
Other companies have hinted at the beginnings of their own strategies. Last week, Universal announced an investment in Complex and NTWRK, following the latter’s acquisition of the former from Buzzfeed, aimed at connecting artists with an online shopping option for fans; that came a month after UMG chairman/CEO Lucian Grainge’s own New Year’s memo to staff, in which he said, “The next focus of our strategy will be to grow the pie for all artists, by strengthening the artist-fan relationship through superfan experiences and products,” pointing to discussions with platform partners and in-house partnerships. In January, Spotify CEO Daniel Ek hinted at the creation of “superfan clubs” when mentioning new products. And last week, Live Nation execs talked about revamping the superfan experience for concerts, in a bet that it will drive more revenue.
While Kyncl didn’t specify what Warner has in the works, or how it will connect artists to fans, he underlined the need for the app to be available across platforms. “Artists want to work with every single platform… they don’t want to optimize just for one platform over another,” he said. “So a solution like this for superfans has to be a cross-platform solution. We, as a record label, are in a perfect position to do that because we work with all of the platforms. Historically, we haven’t had the technology talent to do this, but now we do… it’s an exciting piece of work that will launch later this year.”
Warner Music Group announced Wednesday (Feb. 7) that its quarterly revenue grew 17% for the period ended Dec. 31, 2023, up 11% in normalized revenue, to $1.75 billion, its highest quarterly mark ever, ahead of its earnings call Thursday. At the same time, CEO Robert Kyncl announced in an internal memo to staff obtained by Billboard that the company will be reducing its workforce by 10%, or some 600 people, as part of a plan to free up $200 million in cost savings to reinvest into the company.
Much of that workforce reduction, Kyncl wrote, will come in the form of Warner’s owned and operated media properties — such as Uproxx and HipHopDX, which it acquired in August 2018 — as well as in corporate and support roles. “Earlier today, we began exiting our O&O media properties, as well as our in-house ad sales function,” Kyncl wrote. “These are dynamic platforms, but they operate outside our core responsibilities to our roster. We’re in an exclusive process for the potential sale of the news and entertainment websites Uproxx and HipHopDX, with more to say on that soon. After a thorough exploration of alternatives, we’ve decided to wind down the podcasting brand Interval Presents and social media publisher IMGN.”
Kyncl further added that Warner is making the move from “a position of strength,” noting that the company currently has five of the top 10 songs on the Hot 100, “and that’s the smart time to change, innovate and lead. Music is constantly morphing, so we need to morph with it.”
That $200 million in cost savings will be realized by the end of September 2025, Kyncl said in the memo; some of those laid off have already begun to be informed, while the “vast majority” will be notified “by the end of September 2024,” he writes.
“As we carry out our plan, it’s important to bear in mind why we’re making these difficult choices,” the memo continued. “We’re getting on the front foot to create a sustainable competitive advantage over the next decade. We’ll do so by increasing funding behind artists and songwriters, new skill sets, and tech, to help us deliver on our three strategic priorities,” which he says includes growing engagement with music, increasing the value of music and evolving how Warner’s teams work together.
Read Kyncl’s full note to staff below.
Hi everyone,
We just finished our first All Hands of 2024 from LA.
This is a pivotal moment in the evolution of this great company, so I wanted to make sure you heard about it directly from me. As I outlined in my note last month, 2024 is a year during which we will double down on our core business and move at an increased velocity to seize the incredible opportunities for music in the new world.
This week, our recording artists make up five of the top 10, and our songwriters have six of the Top 10, on the Billboard Hot 100. Today, we’re revealing our latest quarterly results: we grew 11% in normalized revenue. And with growing momentum in Recorded Music streaming and excellent results in Music Publishing, we hit our highest quarterly revenue ever. We’re in a position of strength, and that’s the smart time to change, innovate, and lead. Music is constantly morphing, so we need to morph with it.
Today, we’re announcing a plan to free up more funds to invest in music and accelerate our growth for the next decade. To do that, we have to make thoughtful choices about where we put our people, resources, and capital. So, as part of that plan, we’ll be realizing approximately $200 million in annualized cost savings by the end of September 2025. The majority of these savings will be reinvested, putting more money behind the music.
Our plan includes reducing our workforce by approximately 10%, or 600 people – the majority of which will relate to our Owned & Operated media properties, corporate and various support functions.
We’ve already begun to inform many of the impacted employees, and the vast majority will be notified by the end of September 2024. I recognize this is unsettling news. To the people who will be leaving us: you deserve a heartfelt thank you for your hard work and dedication. We’re fortunate that you’ve been part of the team. We’ll be moving as thoughtfully and respectfully as possible, so you have the critical information you need, and we’ll support you through this transition.
Earlier today, we began exiting our O&O media properties, as well as our in-house ad sales function. These are dynamic platforms, but they operate outside our core responsibilities to our roster. We’re in an exclusive process for the potential sale of the news & entertainment websites Uproxx and HipHopDX, with more to say on that soon. After a thorough exploration of alternatives, we’ve decided to wind down the podcasting brand Interval Presents and social media publisher IMGN. Maria and I continue to discuss the ongoing evolution of WMX, and how best to further improve our services to artists and labels, and she’ll update the team in the coming weeks.
As we carry out our plan, it’s important to bear in mind why we’re making these difficult choices. We’re getting on the front foot to create a sustainable competitive advantage over the next decade. We’ll do so by increasing funding behind artists and songwriters, new skill sets, and tech, to help us deliver on our three strategic priorities:
Grow the engagement with Music
Discovering and developing artists and songwriters is at the heart of everything we do. We’ll turbocharge our efforts and investments, with additional focus on high growth geographies and vibrant genres, as well as using our data and insights to help original talents cut through the increasing noise, and taking a holistic global approach to maximizing the potential of their catalogs.
Increase the value of Music
This is one of our industry’s largest and most complex opportunities and one that we’re working on diligently, whether it’s new DSP deal structures or building superfan experiences to help artists connect directly with their most passionate followers.
Evolve how we work together
In order to grow at an accelerated pace, we need to structure our organization so that we can grow efficiently and continue to invest more into music at the same time. That requires being intentional about where centralized shared functions make sense, versus where they are best fully dedicated. This will empower subject matter experts, while scaling our resources. We already made moves in this direction by centralizing our technology, finance and business development teams last year.
Above all, we’re positioning ourselves to be first, to be different, and to be exceptional. I – and the entire leadership team – will be keeping you updated as we make progress. In May, we’ll hold our next All Hands meeting, which we’ll devote to our best new music, as well as our most promising projects.
Thank you for your understanding, passion, and determination. We’re in an amazing industry, we’re partnered with many extraordinary artists and songwriters, and now is the time for us to pioneer the future.
Robert
Now that Warner Music Group chairman/CEO Robert Kyncl has had a full year at the helm of the major label, he has released a New Year’s note to staff, obtained by Billboard, outlining a plan to kick into gear and set the company up for the next 10 years of changes in the music business.
In the note, Kyncl says he’s referring to the year 2024 as “The Year of the Next 10 — the year when we move at velocity to set ourselves up for a winning decade in the new world.”
“As we start the new year, one thing I’d like us all to remember is that our world has fundamentally changed… the music business is in a very different place than it was 10 years ago,” Kyncl writes. “Now, we’re in a position of strength. That is the time to get ahead for the future.”
He then emphasizes three key areas that he sees as crucial for the next year: growing the engagement with music; increasing the value of music; and evolving how the team works together.
On the first point, Kyncl breaks it down into four main focus points. The first, he writes, is about focusing A&R more on capturing opportunity, including geographically (“based on where artists and songwriters come from and where their streams are going”) and looking forward, as with identifying genres that will grow in the future. The second, in marketing, he emphasizes the partnership between marketing, A&R, tech and business intelligence to better focus efforts and better use the data available. The third, in catalog, emphasizes the ability to market and promote WMG’s extensive catalog on the same lines as it does its frontline music, particularly in digital optimization, given that catalog is driving some 70% of consumption in the current market. And finally, he emphasizes distribution and administration, in beefing up both the services available to the “middle class of artists” and in the major’s publishing admin business, which he wants to scale up further.
The second point, focusing on value, is about solving in 2024 for some of the conversations that rose up and started to dominate in 2023: namely, the value of artists and music on streaming platforms, as well as the issues surrounding the dilution of the royalty pool from the likes of functional music and white-noise tracks. Kyncl has previously spoken about the importance of streaming services raising prices, which many did in the past year, which he stresses as well. And finally, he stresses the need to further develop artist-to-superfan relationships, which he calls “relatively untapped and under-monetized,” though notes that WMG has initiatives in the works in many of these areas already.
The final point, on working together, is about reorienting how the WMG team works, including through leaning into expertise, transparency, flexibility, collaboration across departments and within teams, relying on metrics and not being afraid to lead rather than follow the industry.
Kyncl also takes time to point out some of WMG’s successes in the past year, including big years by the likes of Zach Bryan, Jack Harlow and Gunna; returns from Dua Lipa, David Guetta and Ed Sheeran; and catalog victories for the music of David Bowie, Madonna and Talking Heads, among others, while looking forward to new music from Gabby Barrett, Maria Becerra, Green Day and more.
Looking at the past several decades in 10-year chunks is a useful way of catching snapshots of how markedly things have changed. In 2004, the CD boom had decidedly stalled, as piracy began to take chunks out of the record industry and the business was in the midst of its protracted struggle with piracy and the digital revolution. By 2014, the industry had effectively bottomed out, with recorded revenues hitting their nadir as streaming had been introduced but had yet to catch on as a viable, much less dominant, format for the business. Now, in 2024, with streaming far and away the biggest source of revenue for a booming business, the revenue model is being hotly scrutinized, as new technologies and increasing fraud and volume threaten to overwhelm the now-established status quo.
In that respect, Kyncl sees this year as a pivotal one to answer several of these big questions, and set WMG up for the next decade of challenges and opportunities in the business. “We’re going to fuel the growth of this company using the same resourcefulness and determination with which we develop our artists and songwriters,” he writes. “Because ultimately that’s what will serve them best.”
Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl has a message for a music industry facing disruption from artificial intelligence that’s often likened to the rise of file-sharing a quarter century ago: “You have to embrace technology, because it’s not like you can put technology in a bottle,” he said during an onstage interview at the Code […]
Lyor Cohen discussed “a future where generative AI has a profound impact on music” at the annual Made on YouTube event on Thursday (Sept. 21). YouTube’s longtime global head of music is nothing if not enthusiastic about artificial intelligence and its potential ability to supercharge music-making. Cohen told the attendees that “AI tools are opening up a new playground for creativity;” AI “can be used by artists to amplify and accelerate their creativity;” and AI can usher in “a new era of musical creativity.”
Cohen was joined by Charlie Puth, who played some piano and showed off his beatboxing, and Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl. Kyncl acknowledged that not everyone in music is as excited about AI as Cohen seems to be: “Change is unsettling; we are in that period of change.” He proposed charting a path forward where AI enthusiasts can gain from the technology while artists who are wary of it are somehow shielded from its impacts.
Artists “will create and they will use all kinds of tools to create… that’s their job,” Kyncl said. “It’s our job, the platforms and the music industry, to make sure that artists like Charlie who lean in [to AI] benefit. It’s also our job together to make sure that artists who don’t want to lean in are protected.” He pointed to the success of YouTube’s Content ID system, which helps the platform track user-generated content, as a potential model, because creators can choose to monetize that UGC or block it depending on their preferences.
YouTube previously signaled its interest in being part of music’s AI-driven future in August when it announced an “AI Music Incubator” that will include input from Anitta, Juanes, Ryan Tedder, Rodney Jerkins, and many others.
“This group will explore, experiment and offer feedback on the AI-related musical tools and products they are researching,” Universal CEO Lucian Grainge wrote in a blog post. “Once these tools are launched, the hope is that more artists who want to participate will benefit from and enjoy this creative suite.”
At the Made on YouTube event, CEO Neal Mohan also discussed a suite of new tools for creators that aim to put “the creative power of AI into the hands of billions of people.” These include Dream Screen, which “lets you create AI-generated video or image backgrounds for Shorts by typing in an idea,” and a search function that “will act like a music concierge” when it comes time to find a track to place into a video. “Our creator can just describe her video, and if she wants she can even include information about the length or type of song she’s looking for, and Creator Music suggests the right track at the right price,” Mohan explained.
Jade Beason, a YouTube creator, told the crowd she “spend[s] a lot of time trying to find the right music for videos” and is sometimes “guilty of actually just using the same song [over again] because I just can’t find the right one.” “Music has the ability to change how your audience actually feels when they’re watching your content,” she continued. “It’s the difference between someone seeing a video of yours and laughing or crying… so the idea that we can do this easily amongst everything else is actually quite wild.”
Warner Music Group’s share price fell nearly 10% on Tuesday (May 9) following the release of the company’s second quarter earnings report, which showed that revenue from the recorded music division was effectively flat over last year ($1.143 billion vs. $1.147 billion in the year-ago quarter).
On Tuesday, Warner’s stock fell from $28.50 at the start of the day to $25.76 at the market’s close — a 9.58% drop.
This marks the second straight quarter of disappointing results in recorded music for Warner, the world’s third-largest label. Last quarter, revenue in the division fell 10.6%, or 5.6% in constant currency, on lower digital, physical and artist services and expanded rights revenue.
In the current quarter, streaming revenue was down 0.4% (or, in constant currency 2.2% higher) on fewer releases and a slowdown in ad-supported revenue due to macroeconomic uncertainty. By contrast, music publishing revenue grew 12% to $257 million, up from $230 million a year ago.
“While our publishing was best in class, we underperformed in recorded music,” said CEO Robert Kyncl on an earnings call Tuesday.
In attempts to bolster confidence, WMG executives on the call stressed that the company is already seeing improvement with the late-April releases of Jack Harlow’s Jackman., Tïesto’s Drive and Ed Sheeran’s Subtract, which was released earlier this month. CFO Eric Levin noted that the label’s release slate “was a little lighter in the first two quarters of the year and will be weighted to (the third quarter) and (the fourth quarter),” with upcoming releases expected from Dua Lipa‘s Barbie soundtrack, among others.
“We absolutely expect this to improve our results in recorded music streaming in the second half of the year,” Levin added.
Nonetheless, investors appear to be growing skittish over the lackluster performance. Tuesday’s closing price marked a sharp drop of nearly 20% of Warner’s stock over the past month, with the share price falling from $32.12 on April 10.
As the music industry grapples with the far-reaching implications of artificial intelligence, Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl is being mindful of the opportunities it will create. “Framing it only as a threat is inaccurate,” he said on Tuesday (May 9) during the earnings call for the company’s second fiscal quarter ended March 31.
Kyncl’s tenure as chief business officer at YouTube informs his viewpoint on AI’s potential to contribute to the music industry’s growth. “When I arrived [at YouTube] in 2010, we were fighting many lawsuits around the world and were generating low tens of millions of dollars from [user-generated content],” he continued. “We turned that liability into a billion-dollar opportunity in a handful of years and multibillion-dollar revenue stream over time. In 2022, YouTube announced that it paid out over $2 billion from UGC to music rightsholders alone and far more across all content industries.”
Not that AI doesn’t pose challenges for owners of intellectual property. A wave of high-profile AI-generated songs — such as the “fake Drake”/The Weeknd track, “Heart on My Sleeve,” by an anonymous producer under the name Ghostwriter — has revealed how off-the-shelf generative AI technologies can easily replicate the sound and style of popular artists without their consent.
“Our first priority is to vigorously enforce our copyrights and our rights in name, image, likeness, and voice, to defend the originality of our artists and songwriters,” said Kyncl, echoing comments by Universal Music Group CEO Lucian Grainge in a letter sent to Spotify and other music streaming platforms in March. In that letter, Grainge said UMG “would not hesitate to take steps to protect our rights and those of our artists” against AI companies that use its intellectual property to “train” their AI.
“It is crucial that any AI generative platform discloses what their AI is trained on and this must happen all around the world,” Kyncl said on Tuesday. He pointed to the EU Artificial Intelligence Act — a proposed law that would establish government oversight and transparency requirements for AI systems — and efforts by U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer in April to build “a flexible and resilient AI policy framework” to impose guardrails while allowing for innovation.
“I can promise you that whenever and wherever there is a legislative initiative on AI, we will be there in force to ensure that protection of intellectual property is high on the agenda,” Kyncl continued.
Kyncl went on to note that technological problems also require technological solutions. AI companies and distribution platforms can manage the proliferation of AI music by building new technologies for “identifying and tracking of content on consumption platforms that can appropriately identify copyright and remunerate copyright holders,” he continued.
Again, Kyncl’s employment at YouTube comes into play here. Prior to his arrival, the platform built a proprietary digital fingerprinting system, Content ID, to manage and monetize copyrighted material. In fact, one of Kyncl’s first hires as CEO of WMG, president of technology Ariel Bardin, is a former YouTube vp of product management who oversaw Content ID.
Labels are also attempting to rein in AI content by adopting “user-centric” royalty payment models that reward authentic, human-created recordings over mass-produced imitations. During UMG’s first quarter earnings call on April 26, Grainge said that “with the right incentive structures in place, platforms can focus on rewarding and enhancing the artist-fan relationship and, at the same time, elevate the user experience on their platforms, by reducing the sea of noise … eliminating unauthorized, unwanted and infringing content entirely.” WMG adopted user-centric (i.e. “fan-powered”) royalties on SoundCloud in 2022.