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Dasha, the singer-songwriter behind the viral hit “Austin,” has signed a label deal with Warner Records.
“We met with every label, and all of the labels were incredible,” Dasha tells Billboard of selecting Warner Records. “It was a difficult decision, but Warner just felt like they had the most heart. Everyone on that team are genuinely fans of the music. It just came down to a gut feeling. They were so passionate about my songwriting, which is my priority. First and foremost, I’m a songwriter and they champion my storytelling.”
“Dasha is a star,” says Warner Records co-chairman/CEO Aaron Bay-Schuck via email. “She’s a force of nature when she walks in the room, she has real passion, significant talent, clear vision, and really strong music that extends far beyond ‘Austin.’”
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In November 2023, as an independent artist, Dasha released “Austin,” a mesh of vengeful lyrics and immense dance grooves, in which she declares that while she hightails it to Los Angeles, her ex-lover will “still be here, drunk, washed up in Austin.”
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“Austin” spiked on TikTok earlier this year before surging up the Spotify Viral 50 chart. The song now resides at No. 74 on the Billboard Hot 100 and at No. 17 on Billboard’s Hot Country Songs chart, while Dasha is at No. 11 on Billboard’s Emerging Artists chart. The song comes from Dasha’s eight-song project What Happens Now?, which came out Feb. 16. “Austin” is also the soundtrack to a corresponding line dance launched by Dasha via a TikTok video last month. To date, “Austin” has earned nearly 450,000 unique video creations on the platform.
The song is resonating on other outlets as well. “It’s been surreal because the song hasn’t slowed down. Yesterday, we did 2.2 million streams on Spotify alone,” says Dasha, who is managed by Alex Lunt of Type A Management.
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Dasha was raised in San Luis Obispo, California, and is now based in Nashville. She wrote her first song at age 13, inspired by her love of country, pop, rock, and Americana, with influences including Kacey Musgraves, SZA, Tyler Childers and Noah Kahan. Dasha enrolled at Nashville’s Belmont University, but after the COVID-19 pandemic hit in 2020, she returned to California. After releasing the 17-track R&B/pop-oriented album Dirty Blonde in 2023, she reconnected with her love of country music.
She wrote “Austin” in early 2023, with co-writers Adam Wendler, Cheyenne Rose Arnspiger and Kenneth Heidelman.
“Once we kind of got the idea and the chords going, the song flew out in less than an hour,” Dasha recalls. “It just felt natural and everyone I showed that song to after that session was just like, ‘This is going to be a really big song.’ I never doubted it once and no one else did and we were right.”
Warner Records plans to initially take “Austin” to country radio, working in tandem with the promotion team at Warner Music Nashville. This same strategy recently yielded a No. 1 Country Airplay hit for Warner Records artist Warren Zeiders with “Pretty Little Poison.”
“We’ll take this to country radio first, but then we will also take it to pop radio because it is a global song and it deserves that,” Dasha says. “So, I think we are going to work both angles.”
“It’s a two-pronged approach,” Bay-Schuck says. “Obviously, it is everyone’s goal to make ‘Austin’ one of the biggest songs in the world, but never at the sacrifice of telling the artist’s story and solidifying the artist’s proposition. The building of a proper foundation is critical to the mission of never letting a song become bigger than the artist. Our artist development approach will work towards Dasha being accepted and respected by both country audiences and pop audiences, alike.”
It’s not only fans who have taken notice of Dasha’s chart-busting success with “Austin.” She notes that several artists — in the country genre and beyond — have reached out and shown support, but also interest in collaborating.
Dasha says a duet version of “Austin” could potentially be on the horizon. “We’re just trying to figure out what the right collaboration is,” Dasha says. “We’re in no rush, because this song is really just starting, so I think we will wait and see what opportunities come up. I want it to be organic and not a planned business thing — I want to expand the life of the song and give it a new twist.”
Dasha made her television debut of “Austin” on Jimmy Kimmel Live! on March 21. Looking ahead, Dasha will make her debut at California’s Stagecoach Music Festival, with performances at Hangout Music Festival, CMA Fest, Lollapalooza and Country Calling Festival set for later this year.
Though she is now signed with a major label, Dasha praises the independent collective that has helped propel the song thus far, including Type A Management and King Publicity.
“Everything you see now is because of the independent, small team of people we put together who believe in me and the song. As a country artist, to be on the cover of the [Spotify] Pop Rising and all this crazy stuff, has been mind-blowing and bigger than I ever could have imagined. I’m so, so grateful.”
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The IFPI’s annual figure for global recorded music revenue, announced Thursday (Mar. 21) for 2023, is the gold standard for tracking the health of the music business. It’s the number most often cited in corporate reports, market research and media articles. It’s also a bit outdated.
Traditionally, record labels have sold and streamed music, secured synch licenses and collected performance and neighboring rights royalties. But a modern record label also collects expanded rights revenues — from multi-right, 360-degree recording contracts — by taking a share of artists’ income from merchandise, touring and branding, among other sources. Those expanded rights revenues aren’t part of the IFPI’s annual revenue tally, but MIDiA Research includes that — and more — in its annual estimate.
MIDiA’s more fulsome figure for global recorded music revenue in 2023 was $35.1 billion, nearly 23% higher than the IFPI’s $28.6 billion. According to MIDiA, which tells Billboard its estimate came from publicly available information and interviews, expanded rights revenue totaled $3.5 billion in 2023.
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Some expanded rights revenue is in plain sight. Universal Music Group, for example, took in 706 million euros ($764 million) of merchandising revenue from Bravado, its wholly owned merchandise company, in 2023. For other companies, expanded rights are harder to pin down. Warner Music Group had $744 million of artist services and expanded-rights revenue in 2023. WMG’s expanded rights includes merchandising, VIP ticketing, fan clubs, concert promotion and management, according to its latest quarterly report.
Neither global revenue figure is right or wrong; they’re just different. The IFPI’s revenue figures reflect how labels monetize the rights associated with master recordings through sales, streaming and licensing. MIDiA’s revenue figure acknowledges the role of record labels has expanded far beyond monetization of masters.
Even the term “expanded rights” is problematic because it suggests merchandise and branding isn’t central to a record label’s mission. That isn’t necessarily the case in 2024. Consider the wave of K-pop companies expanding globally out of South Korea. HYBE, home of boy band BTS, is a hybrid record label, talent agency and management company with a slow, painstaking artist development process and a business model that captures far more than recorded music sales. In 2023, 55% of HYBE’s revenue came from sources other than recorded music. Concerts accounted for roughly 16% of revenue, merchandise and licensing were 15%, and ads and appearances were 7%. In fact, MIDiA estimated that Korean labels — including SM Entertainment, YG Entertainment, JYP Entertainment and Starship Entertainment — accounted for nearly 70% of non-major-label expanded rights revenue.
Another difference between the IFPI and MIDiA reports is the latter’s emphasis on the fast-growing independent artist community. Easy access to recording tools and distribution has gotten the everyday artist’s recordings on digital platforms around the world. MIDiA estimates there was $1.8 billion in “artist direct” revenue in 2023. Artist direct is a category of self-publishing, independent artists who use self-serve platforms like DistroKid and TuneCore, and MIDiA’s 2023 Creator Survey estimated there are 6.4 million artists in this segment. While 38% of these independent artists aspire to be full-time musicians, 36% do not expect to focus on music as a sole career. Deducting expanded rights and artist direct revenues from MIDiA’s $35.1 billion estimate narrows the difference between that and the IFPI’s $28.6 million figure.
Another difference between the two reports stems from MIDiA’s inclusion of revenue from production libraries in its synch revenue figure. Production music — which spans everything from beat marketplace BeatStars to online library Epidemic Sound — often exists outside of the record label system that traditionally develops and markets artists. Unlike artist-oriented music, production music is often nameless and faceless content that advertisers and other content creators license for its specific sound and style rather than artist name recognition. Lacking star power is the point, however: Production music libraries are increasingly popular amongst content creators in need of affordable background music.
Broader measurements will be crucial for tracking the recorded music business of the future. Record labels will pursue “superfans” through products and services that may not produce typical sales and streams. Artificial intelligence will create new licensing opportunities. Greater adoption of the K-pop model will change what it means to be a record label. When that happens broadly, $28.6 billion of annual revenue will be a starting point. Judging by MiDIA’s 2023 report, it already is.
In the mid-2000s, indie rock was booming, and major labels swooped in to sign many of the genre’s biggest acts. Two decades later, MGMT,The Decemberists, Death Cab for Cutie and Modest Mouse, among others, have emerged from those deals into a wildly different music industry. For artists who are coming out of long contracts, “it’s a whole new era,” says Kirk Harding, a longtime manager and co-owner of label and management company Bad Habit.
Recording contracts changed drastically between 2004 and 2024. There is also a new set of players for artists to choose from — not just the major labels and prominent indies, but a number of distribution companies that offer some level of services. “You can cherry pick what you want to be in your contract to some degree,” says Scott Brooks, the longtime manager of The Flaming Lips, which is currently without a label contract after fulfilling their deal with Warner Records. (Paramore is also a free agent.)
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“If we end up signing,” Brooks adds, “it’ll be a different kind of record deal than what we would have signed even a decade ago.”
Throughout the 2000s and into the 2010s, the majority of major label acts signed low-royalty deals and typically gave up ownership of three to five albums for a long period (often forever). On top of that, many agreed to what are known as “360 deals,” in which the label also participates in income from merchandise, sponsorships, ticket sales and more.
In those days, labels could get these kinds of terms because it was difficult, if not impossible, for artists to get national exposure without a record company’s help. Now, artists can build a global presence before partnering with any label. That means they have the negotiating power to ask for, and sometimes receive, terms that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. As a result, industry expectations around deal-making have shifted.
“I don’t think I’ve done a deal with anybody in the last few years where the artist hasn’t had at least 50% of the profit,” Harding says. “The new wars to wage are making sure that the deals and the reversions are short term, so that the artist can get through the deal and get back these new recordings quickly.” (If a band licenses its album to a label for 10 years, for example, after that time, the album reverts back to the band, usually conditional on recoupment of the deal.)
All that said, an artist’s leverage in record deal negotiations stems in large part from their ability to generate streams. And this doesn’t always work out in favor of veteran rock bands; rock is the fifth most popular genre when ranked by percentage of current streams, according to Luminate. “There aren’t as many options as one would think right now given what’s going on with rock music and streaming,” says Jordan Kurland, who manages Death Cab for Cutie.
Still, these acts have mostly proven that they can build and maintain an audience — especially on the road, a challenge for many artists who came of age in an era of passive streaming engagement. And some of them have a level of cultural cachet that’s attractive to labels, who always have to think about what will entice the next generation of signings. Friendly deal terms help, as does having artists on the roster that young acts look up to.
Whenever an artist who signed a traditional contract with a major label completes the deal, their old record company typically still has one hook in them because they still likely own the act’s previous sound recordings. “If the label wants you to stay, they have the power to say, ‘We can adjust the royalty rate on your catalog,’ or in rare cases, take your recordings out of perpetuity and set reversions so you eventually get them back,” Harding says.
“That always comes up now in renegotiations,” adds an executive at a prominent indie label. “Artists say, ‘Cool, we’ll re-sign with you, but we want those recordings back in 10 years.’”
This leverage is conditional, of course, on the label wanting to keep the band. In the case of The Flaming Lips, “after American Head, we started the conversation of, was Warner gonna sign us again?” Brooks recalls. “Is Warner even interested? It really came back that they weren’t, to be honest.”
Some veteran bands might still want to find a major label partner for particular services. While radio’s influence continues to diminish, promotion remains expensive, and the majors still have the most radio muscle. “Radio is still a big part of the Death Cab picture,” Kurland says. During “the last Death Cab campaign in ticket sales, for example, if you look at markets that no longer had an alternative radio station, it [negatively] impacted our shows.”
“Could you sell less records and keep more of the money?” Kurland asks. “Yes. But are there other aspects of your business that might suffer by doing that?”
Gandhar Savur, an entertainment attorney who represents Built to Spill and other bands, asks a similar question — but he’s more optimistic about the answer. “If they’re doing really good business as a band, they can sell less records but retain the lion’s share of income and make so much more money,” he says. “That’s why you’re seeing a lot of bands go into situations where they’re no longer doing major label deals or even your standard 50-50 indie deal. They’re looking for something that’s more akin to a label services deal — which is a distribution deal with some services added for publicity and promotion.”
This is the route taken by The Decemberists, who previously released five albums on Capitol, including The King Is Dead, which hit No. 1 on the Billboard 200. For its upcoming album, the band opted to sign with Thirty Tigers, which is distributed by Sony’s The Orchard and offers some services, including radio.
“We found an option that provides label investment and infrastructure without compromising on ownership, and that gives the band and their team real autonomy with the marketing,” says Jason Colton, who manages the band, via email. “It’s a lot of responsibility for a larger release, but ultimately, it’s more investment, more control and outright ownership than we were going to find in a more traditional deal.”
Outside of the majors and major-owned distributors, indie label executives say they have also seen an uptick in interest from veterans leaving majors in recent years. The Yeah Yeah Yeahs signed a deal with Secretly Canadian in 2022 after years of working with Interscope, for example, while PJ Harvey released an album on Partisan in 2023 after a 20-plus-year affiliation with Island Records. MGMT’s new album Loss of Life came out in February through Mom + Pop.
Potential label partners have their own calculations to make. “It’s hard for any label if you only have the new record and someone else has all the catalog, because a new record always drives catalog listening, but you’re not participating in the income,” the indie label executive says. “But there’s always been a thing where labels need and want important artists, even if they’re expensive, to attract other artists.”
“A lot of these bands are in a good position so they can get favorable terms,” the person continues. “Maybe they only do a one-record deal. The hope is we do a good job, the artist is happy, and we renew that contract. Over time, we work with them long term.”
Additional reporting by Melinda Newman.
Dominique Casimir, chief content officer for BMG, announced she is exiting the company on Thursday (Mar. 21).
“It has been an exceptional journey to have been part of shaping BMG’s story from almost day one,” Casimir said in a statement. “We built something unique — a global company with a genuinely artist-focused spirit — and celebrated many milestones together. I am truly grateful for the possibilities I have been given and the amazing people I work with, but I have decided that it is time for something new in my life and career.”
“I would personally like to thank Dominique for her outstanding contribution and unparalleled commitment to BMG over many years,” added BMG CEO Thomas Coesfeld. “We respect her decision to move on, and I would like to wish her all the very best for her personal and professional future, personally, on behalf of the BMG Board — and the wider BMG team.”
Casimir’s departure comes during a period of transition for BMG.
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In April 2023, the company claimed to be the first to combine its new release and catalog recordings businesses. The following month, BMG announced that it would shorten its long-term succession plan for longtime CEO Hartwig Masuch, meaning that Coesfeld stepped into the role on July 1 instead of New Year’s Day 2024.
BMG subsequently exited its distribution agreement with Warner Music Group’s ADA and took “direct control of our relationships with streaming services,” as Coesfeld said in a statement at the time. In October, BMG laid off around 40 employees. (Layoffs have swept through the music industry in the last 15 months.)
And in November, the company announced a restructure that Coesfeld described as “local where necessary, global where possible.” “Fifteen years after the emergence of streaming, music is going through another tectonic change,” Coesfeld said in a statement at the time. “It is vital we now reengineer our business to make the most of that opportunity.”
Casimir started working at BMG in 2008. Her portfolio eventually grew to encompass GSA (2016), Continental Europe (2019), Asia Pacific and Latin America (2020), and the company’s global synch operation (2021). She was promoted to chief content officer in May 2022.
As the showdown continues between Universal Music Group (UMG) and TikTok after the world’s biggest record company pulled content by its artists and songwriters from the video-hosting social media site, it seems as though the ban has created a window of opportunity for independent music acts.
A look at the upper echelon of Billboard‘s TikTok Top 50 chart shows that most of the top 20 entries on the chart are independent recordings, including Dasha’s breakthrough “Austin,” Mitski’s “My Love Mine All Mine,” Djo (a.k.a. actor/musician Joe Keery)’s “End of Beginning,” and even Bobby Caldwell’s 1979 song “What You Won’t Do For Love.” Prior to UMG’s TikTok ban, independent artists, music from independent artists already made up a significant portion of the TikTok 50 chart, which debuted in September 2023, but without UMG artists’ or songwriters’ works on the platform — which by Billboard‘s recent estimates affects more than 60% of the most popular songs in the United States — the pathway to success seems more clear than ever.
However, top independent music executives have a message for artists in the sector: “Not so fast.”
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As UMG’s ban drags on, independent music executives are advising artists to look at the bigger picture — and also to use this as an opportunity to look at what rights they do and don’t control.
“I truly hope we don’t do what we so often do in the music industry, which is say, ‘Oh, this is an opportunity for me to get a bit of an advantage,’ and then take the advantage, but ultimately damage the ecosystem,” says Richard James Burgess, president/CEO of the American Association of Independent Music (A2IM). “I think we are sort of at a critically bad state, in terms of the amount of money that’s being paid through [to artists]. That works out fine if you’re an aggregator, distributor or label, and you’ve got enough copyrights. But it’s extremely difficult for the artist to generate enough copyrights to make a living from if someone’s not a household name.”
Burgess continues, “TikTok is an extremely bad actor in terms of the types of deals they do and the structure of their deals. It’s almost like trying to play the lottery — if you get a viral TikTok, it can have an impact on your sales, but how much money does TikTok make from us trying to get that sort of viral spike? They should be paying for the use of music and they’re effectively not paying. I think Universal did a great thing here, and my membership, my board, supports that position.” (A rep for TikTok has declined to comment for this story).
In a 2022 Billboard story, one executive from an independent label noted that artists on his roster earned approximately $150 from TikTok from around 100,000 videos that were made with their music. Meanwhile, in the same report, a marketer who spearheaded a campaign for a music single that was used in approximately half a million TikTok videos noted that his artist earned less than $5,000 from TikTok, though views rose into the billions.
While there are opportunities for increasing numbers of independent artists to gain greater traction on TikTok during the platform’s impasse with UMG, “it’s important for artists to use the opportunity to focus on their own art instead of chasing trending sounds or being the one-millionth person to cover a hit song,” says Jody Whelan of independent record label Oh Boy Records, which was founded in 1981 by the late singer-songwriter John Prine and which now represents music from Prine, Kelsey Waldon and Arlo McKinley, among others. “If you’re lucky enough to go viral on TikTok, you want folks to stick around to hear what you have to say.”
For many contemporary acts, TikTok is a key component of their marketing plans, with labels and managers urging artists to create content in hopes of driving listeners to streaming platforms. A 2023 report, commissioned by TikTok and facilitated by Luminate, noted that 62% of U.S. TikTok users pay for a music streaming service, compared to 43% of all consumers.“TikTok user engagement metrics are strongly associated with streaming volumes,” in the United States, the report stated. “In other words, higher TikTok engagement — whether that’s likes, views or shares — corresponds with elevated streaming volumes.” The report also noted that TikTok users are more engaged with other areas of music-related consumption, claiming that in the United States, 45% of TikTok users purchased music-related merch over a year-long span, compared with 35% of overall music listeners, while 38% of TikTok users attended a live music event during the year, compared to 33% of overall music listeners.
Even with stats like these, Whelan says the TikTok/UMG battle should serve as a cautionary tale to realize how even so-called independent artists can get caught in the ban’s web because of an affiliation with UMG or UMPG. “This should also serve as a reminder to the independent community: You can’t rely on someone else’s platform to reach your audience,” Whelan says. “This month it’s UMG, next month it could be your distributor. The algorithms and priorities of social media companies and the streamers continuously shift. You have to be able to control the means in which you communicate directly with your audience, whether that’s by email or by text (we also still send out postcards to our fans!).”
Stem CEO Milana Lewis agrees, seeing the situation as a “great moment to highlight the difference between independence and autonomy. Artists believe they’re independent when they do a deal with the independent distribution arm of a major label because their deal terms might be more flexible. In reality, they still have very little control over their rights, and this is a great example of how a big corporation is deciding on their behalf whether or not their music is available on a platform and whether or not they are willing to trade off earnings for exposure.”
Independent artists should be taking this time to examine their relationships with all social media and make sure they are taking full advantage of each platform despite TikTok’s current dominance, says Seth Faber, Stem’s general manager of music distribution and payments. “Time will tell if Universal’s maneuver will lead to a meaningful redistribution of the viral pie. In the meantime, artists should continue to lean into the full landscape of snackable content,” Faber says. “The power of Instagram’s Reels, Spotify’s Clips and YouTube’s Shorts aren’t to be ignored. Diversify those content portfolios.”
For Burgess, UMG vs. TikTok is a repeat of an age-old battle pitting the industry against artists, with artists often coming out on the short end of the stick. “[TikTok] plays this promotional exposure-discovery game. How many times do we get sucked into that?” Burgess asks. “Radio hasn’t paid [artists] for recorded music. MTV didn’t pay. We keep making the same mistakes. Good thing is that Universal is big enough, and especially with the publishing and everything, the tendrils from that go far and wide.”
Burgess further likens the UMG-TikTok battle with the ongoing battle with secondary ticket markets, saying that most of the money is not making its way to artists. “That is the essence of the problem,” he says. “It would be good if people did the right thing here and stood together to get a better deal for everybody.”
The global record business will soon pop the champagne to celebrate another year of streaming-led revenue growth, judging from the handful of individual country revenue figures for 2023 made public so far this year. The IFPI won’t release its 2023 report until Thursday (Mar. 21), but major markets such as the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Spain and Japan have already released data that shows 2023 produced another bumper harvest for record labels.
But while streaming continues to push markets in positive directions, growth has slowed, and revenue in some markets remains well below the levels of the CD era. Worse yet, some countries may have insufficient streaming growth to get back to earlier peaks.
SNEP, the recorded music trade group in France, issued a stark warning this week when it announced that the country’s 2023 revenue rose a respectable 5.1% to 968 million euros ($1.05 billion at the average exchange rate in 2023). But even though digital revenue rose 8.8% to 620 million euros ($671 million) and streaming revenue climbed 9.2%, a 10% increase in subscription streaming revenue “remains too weak to fully fuel the development of the market even though it is the primary source of value creation,” SNEP wrote in its 2023 report.
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France might reasonably be expected to be faring better in 2024. The country was the sixth-largest recorded music market in 2022, according to the IFPI, and is the home of Deezer, an early entrant to the music subscription market. But in 2023, France had only a 16% penetration rate for paid subscribers, according to SNEP, “one of the lowest among the main music territories. The growth in revenue from these subscriptions is slowing down here while our market is far from having reached maturity.” This isn’t a brand-new concern: SNEP sounded the same alarm a year ago.
So, while streaming is creating new opportunities globally for labels, publishers and creators, it hasn’t grown enough to help France recapture revenue lost during the fall of the CD in the 2000s. France’s revenue of 968 million euros in 2023 was 25% below the 1.3 billion euros of revenue it enjoyed in 2002. In contrast, the U.S. market’s $15.9 billion in recorded music revenue was well above the peak of the CD era, $14.5 billion, set in 1999, according to the RIAA.
Elsewhere, some major recorded music markets have announced decent gains in 2023 without voicing the kind of dire warning seen in France.
The German recorded music industry grew 6.3% in 2023, the BVMI announced Mar. 6. Digital revenue grew 8.4% and accounted for 81.5% of total revenue. Audio streaming rose 8.4% and accounted for 74.8% of the total market and 92% of digital revenue. Physical sales accounted for 18.5% of total revenue and rose 0.1% from 2022. CD sales dropped 5.9% but accounted for 11.3% of total revenue and about 61% of physical revenue. Vinyl sales grew 12.6%.
Spain’s recorded music market grew 12.3% to 520 million euros in 2023, Promusicae announced Tuesday (Mar. 12). Streaming grew 17.3% to 398.6 million euros ($432 million) and accounted for 77% of total revenue, which was a remarkable 150% higher than the low point of 159.7 million euros ($212 million) in 2013. But, like France, Spain has yet to match its peak revenue from the CD era. Last year’s revenue was on par with the 475 million euros ($534 million) seen in 2005, itself a sharp decline from revenue that surpassed 700 million euros ($630 million) in 2001.
Aside from SNEP in France, only the BPI in the United Kingdom sounded an alarm of any sort. The market’s recorded revenue rose 8.1% in 2023 to a record 1.43 billion pounds ($1.78 billion), the organization announced Thursday (Mar. 14), with streaming revenue increasing 8.4% to 962 million pounds ($1.2 billion) and accounting for 67.4% of total revenue, up from 67.3% in 2022 and well above the 8.6% seen a decade earlier. But BPI CEO Dr. Jo Twist cautioned not to take the growth for granted and emphasized the need for “significant label investment” to keep the market prosperous.
There’s a reason the kind of gains music markets are seeing currently might not feel like unqualified success stories: inflation. Adjusted for inflation, revenue in France last year was actually 48% below 2002; and in 2022, the United States was 38% below its 1999 peak.
These major markets’ failure to return to CD-era highs helps explain the music business’s unprecedented land rush as companies invest in developing markets in search of export-ready artists and untapped streaming potential. Both majors and independents are investing in Africa, the Middle East/North Africa, Asia and South America — regions with large populations, under-monetized streaming markets and exportable music that could generate royalties in Western countries.
Those developing markets, and some major ones like the United States and United Kingdom, helped global recorded music trade revenue reach a new high of $24 billion in 2021, surpassing the $23.2 billion from 1999 (unadjusted for inflation). While both the United States and United Kingdom surpassed their CD era peaks in 2021 (without adjusting for inflation), some other major markets are still trying to recapture their glory days. Growth-minded companies in those markets may have to look beyond their borders to get there.
To many people, Joe Keery is the actor known for playing Steve Harrington on the beloved Netflix show Stranger Things, or Gator Tillman on the most recent season of FX’s Fargo. What those people may not know is that he’s also the creative behind the music releases under the moniker Djo and has been releasing music for the past five years under that name through Sony-owned AWAL. He started by licensing his music through the company’s distribution service and, over the years, rose through its tiered offerings to release two projects via its AWAL Recordings label.
The most recent of those projects was Decide, Djo’s 2022 album that broke through and was well received by critics, garnering him his biggest looks from the music press to date. Now, two years later, the Decide track “End of Beginning” has become a massive hit on TikTok. The song has flown to the top of the TikTok 50 chart and landed “End of Beginning” not just a spot in the top 25 of the Hot 100 (it currently sits at a new peak of No. 23) but into the top 10 of both the Global 200 (at No. 6) and the Global Ex-U.S. charts (No. 7) as the song explodes not just Stateside but around the world.
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That marks a huge success for Djo and serves as an example of how AWAL’s tiered offerings can help an artist go from hobbyist side project to worldwide success; it also helps earn AWAL CEO Lonny Olinick the title of Billboard’s Executive of the Week. Here, Olinick talks about the success of “End of Beginning,” Djo’s rise through the AWAL ranks and how the company helped support the song’s growth as it began to take off on social media. “We are seeing many people who are discovering ‘End of Beginning’ and loving the song, and are digging deeper,” Olinick says. “And when they do, discovering that the person behind it is so talented in many different ways is just adding to their connection to the project.”
This week, Djo’s “End of Beginning” jumps into the top 10 of Billboard’s Global 200 (No. 6) and Global Ex-U.S. charts (No. 7), his first global chart entry and first top 10. What key decision did you make to help make that happen?
Projects that create meaningful impact always begin with the right A&R decision. You never lose when you partner with artists who have a real creative vision, the drive to be successful and great music to go along with it. That has been the case with Joe and this project since day one.
When it comes to the success of this record, the way we have structured AWAL really allows us to mobilize on a global basis immediately. As we started to see “End of Beginning” react, we were able to spread the story in every country, tied in with the specific way it was reacting. That meant everything from press to content creation to DSP partnerships to radio, depending on the market. Joe even went to the U.K. to present at the Brits and visit key partners, with only a few days’ notice.
Djo first started out distributing his music through AWAL, then rose up through the company’s offering tiers to now doing full recordings deals with AWAL. How did you help guide that trajectory?
We are really lucky that we work in a system that allows us to find the best way to work with music we are passionate about. Ultimately, the projects help guide this process themselves. It becomes pretty clear when an artist is raising their hand and is in the right place to be supported further. I think the traditional way of looking at it — that an artist goes from doing everything on their own to counting on someone else to do everything — isn’t relevant in today’s world. The ramp should be guided by the connection an artist has made with an audience and the potential to grow beyond that base.
In Joe’s case, that is exactly what happened. When we first started working with him, he needed distribution and marketing/content advice. If we had pushed to do more too fast, we might have suffocated the creative process and organic growth he was experiencing as an artist. By the second project, there was a more defined fan base and he was ready for our team to handle marketing and push the story globally. And then we have a moment with “End of Beginning” where we are pushing every lever available to a record label on a global basis. And most importantly with that, pushing them in a way that is focused on creating fans of Djo, not just fans of “End of Beginning.”
“End of Beginning” was originally released two years ago, then caught a new wave on TikTok earlier this year. How were you able to capitalize on that to continue to boost the song’s success?
It is critically important that we let the artist and the art dictate what is possible. In this case, we started to see such great engagement around this song and amazing content being created. Joe was excited to continue the dialogue with the audience and so our job was to spread this in a way that respected the song and artist. From there, we dig into the who, what and where of the moment. From creating new content to support the song, to pitching DSPs, radio and press, and facilitating in-person moments, our team created and executed this strategy on a global basis. And importantly, it changes in real time as the moment evolves.
But most importantly, this has to be led and driven by the artist and that is what happened with Joe. And Joe is supported by an amazing manager in Nick Stern, who has always known when to lean into moments and when to let the fans do what they do on their own.
The song’s appearance in the top 10 on the global charts speaks to the enormous success it’s having not just in the U.S., but also around the world. How have you worked to help the song grow internationally?
To start with, we don’t care where an artist is signed or even where they are based. We let the fans tell us where there is an opportunity to engage further. Since this is ingrained in our DNA, we look at every artist with a global perspective. That has meant that our team has spent as much time focusing on what we can do in Latin America and Asia as we have on what can be done in the U.S., U.K. and Europe. As it turns out, the audience for this song is everywhere and so our team has been everywhere. But it’s easy to say we want to be global. What’s hard is to create and execute a unique plan for each and every market, and that is exactly what our team has done.
Djo — Joe Keery — is also an actor that many people know from Stranger Things and Fargo. How has his success in other mediums also helped you guys with his music career?
To be honest, this is one of the things that makes this project most meaningful and that starts with Joe. Even when I was introduced to the project five years ago, I had no idea it was Joe. I listened to the music and loved it and only found out after the fact. And that has been the way Joe has wanted it to be. He puts the music first and doesn’t want people to listen to it or discover it because he is an actor. And because of that, he has built up a hugely engaged music audience first, many of whom don’t know that he is behind Djo.
It has been interesting to watch this moment evolve. We are seeing many people who are discovering “End of Beginning” and loving the song and are digging deeper. And when they do, discovering that the person behind it is so talented in many different ways is just adding to their connection to the project.
What else are you looking to do to continue to push the song, and Djo’s career overall, moving forward?
Career is the most important part of that question. We are relentlessly focused on using this moment to create new fans for Djo, vs. just fans of “End of Beginning.” We are seeing great engagement with his whole catalogue and there are so many great songs he has put out that are getting new exposure. We believe there is a lot of life left in this song, but at the end of the day, we are spending a lot of time planning out the next two years and continuing to build a story that has already been five years in the making. So many artists have moments that they aren’t ready for and you see that, quickly, it can only be about the song. In this case, we have an artist and their team who has done the work in so many different ways and is fully ready.
How has AWAL shifted along with the music business in the last few years?
We have been fortunate to be ahead of where the industry is going for a while now. We always had fair deals and a model that allowed us to partner with artists in different ways. And most importantly, we always were a music company that prioritized being in business with artists that we love and knowing how to truly develop those artists. Our track record of developing meaningful artists really is different from any other non-traditional company.
But that doesn’t mean we are in any way complacent. I find that our team is hungrier than we have ever been. And being a part of Sony has been an incredible accelerant to everything we planned to do. We have doubled down on the creative side of our business both in helping on the music side and the content side. The creative part of our jobs is what we ultimately all are here for. We have also built out the global side of our business even further. We have new teams in India, Spain, Brazil, Mexico and Nigeria with more offices opening up in the coming months. I look at the last eight years as the hard preparation work for where the market was going. It is fun to see now how uniquely positioned we are even as so many others are trying to adapt to this new music world.
These days the music industry sometimes seems like a media business version of “Trading Places” in which every label wants to be a distributor and every distributor wants to become a label.
On March 7, Warner Music Group disclosed its interest in buying the French digital music distributor Believe, but all the label groups are focusing more on the distribution game – think Sony Music’s 2021 acquisition of AWAL and Universal Music Group’s October consolidation of Virgin Music and Ingrooves. At the same time, distributors are offering more of the services that only labels used to provide, including radio promotion and different kinds of marketing.
From the perspective of an independent creator, these two once-separate sectors have moved close enough that they’re competing – the majors are offering more flexible contracts that allow artists to keep their copyrights, while distributors are providing advances and an array of services to successful acts. For anyone who was in the industry before streaming became the standard, this seems like the music business’ Reese’s moment: You got your distribution in my label! You got your label in my distribution! To outsiders and young creators though, the distinction might not even make that much sense in the first place. Behind all the complicated corporate org charts, isn’t Sony just investing in, marketing and distributing Bad Bunny’s music (through The Orchard), just as it invests in, markets and distributes Beyoncé’s (on Columbia)?
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Sort of. Companies spend less, and make less, on the music they distribute, while acts signed to labels represent bigger bets both in terms of investment and potential upside. Distribution is steadier, while the label business involves more risk and some very profitable successes that more than make up for them. That’s not new. What is new, though, is how what was once a binary choice has become more of a question of finding the right point on a spectrum of risk and reward that has a traditional label deal at one end, distribution on the other and plenty of options in between.
It’s easy to understand why distributors are offering services that were once solely the domain of labels – pure online distribution has always been a low-cost commodity business, and label services offers are one way to get better margins. But what about the opposite? Why are labels getting into a lower-profit business that essentially endangers the best part of their existing business? Especially as label deals get less standard, companies make higher margins on acts that are early in their careers, before they score the success that gets them the leverage to negotiate a better deal.
Understanding why the major label groups are investing so much in a less profitable sector than the one they’re in requires seeing the issue like a media executive in the Internet Age, which is to say through the lens of disruption. This is the idea that companies which pioneer a good-enough product or service at a much lower cost will eventually challenge the market leaders – think of Netflix and cable television, for example. Although the theory isn’t as simple or as applicable as technology executives say it may well apply here: The market share of recorded music from traditional labels is slowly but steadily shrinking, in favor of distributors. The good news for the major labels is that much of that shift involves distributors they own, including The Orchard, owned by Sony, which raised its U.S. market share from 1.5% in 2021, to 7.1% in 2022, to 8.7% in 2023, according to Luminate. Much of that business comes from Bad Bunny, of course, but the company already has another bona fide Latin music superstar in Peso Pluma.
The labels basically just want to disrupt their own businesses before other companies can. If you think this kind of change is inevitable, it’s worth running toward it. (The music business has a reputation for being fearful of technology because it took so long to embrace the internet, but the business school idea of disruption doesn’t apply to pirated music; Napster wasn’t offering another product – it was offering the same product illegally.)
The second reason companies are buying distributors is, as MUSIC founder and CEO Matt Pincus recently told Billboard, “it solves a real stack problem for them.” Pincus was talking specifically about Warner, which like all label groups focuses on trying to break and market stars. A “stack” – programmer-speak for underlying technology – would let the company serve beginning creators and more emerging ones, as well as stars and a few artists that it wants to develop into stars. Warner already does this with ADA, which distributes independent labels, but ADA has tended to focus on a moderate number of mid-size indies, rather than a larger number of smaller ones.
But the most important reason labels are investing more on distribution could be the sector’s potential to serve as a kind of talent farm system. In the movies, label executives discover artists in bars or office auditions, but that hasn’t been the dominant way of doing business for a generation. These days, even beginning creators are distributing their music online, starting their careers on their own rather than trying to be discovered. Which means that by the time a major label gets interested in them, they may already have a deal. Since it’s easier to sign an artist who’s already involved with another division of the company, it makes sense to cast the biggest net possible. This is a defensive move, too: Now that Sony and Universal have big distribution businesses that can potentially serve as talent pipelines, Warner arguably needs one, too.
For that matter, the same applies to Believe. Most indie creators want to start their careers with basic distribution deals – but few of them want to stop there. Believe could be much more attractive to creators if it could offer them a place to grow to as well as services to grow into.
A year ago, Matt Najdowski, like many business managers for top artists, was routinely going over royalty statements when he discovered an unusual plunge in revenue.
For years, Pandora, the internet-radio streaming service, had paid 50% of song royalties to the artists through a collection agency called SoundExchange. But suddenly, artists signed to Universal Music Group were receiving a much lower percentage, similar to what they received from on-demand streaming services like Spotify or YouTube. And the payments were now arriving directly from UMG instead.
Najdowski researched further and learned UMG was able to change the way it reported Pandora revenue because Pandora itself had changed. In 2016, the streaming service began evolving from webcasting to a Spotify-style “search and play what you want” model. Because Pandora now offers an interactive service, rather than a non-interactive webcaster, it needed to make new deals with labels rather than relying on a government-mandated compulsory license at a standardized rate.
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As such, UMG and other labels were able to change the flow of royalties so they collected and paid them directly — rather than SoundExchange distributing to artists, as law mandates under these compulsory licenses. With UMG’s change in policy last year it became the first and only label so far, according to sources, to take advantage of this change. With that, the royalty splits for artists changed, too, from a 50% split through SoundExchange to whatever, often smaller, percentage their record deals dictated for on-demand streaming revenues. That’s significant as the world’s biggest record label contributed $135 million to SoundExchange as part of its Pandora share for artists, according to Billboard estimates based on financial reports and other public information.
“That specific royalty stream can range from a couple hundred dollars per month to a couple thousand. It can be a significant amount of money,” says Najdowski, royalty manager for Farris, Self & Moore. This change in accounting, he adds, “is more or less taking money out of [artist’s] pockets.”
Perhaps most notably, Najdowski discovered that the many UMG artists who are unrecouped – meaning they have yet to earn back the money the label spent on recording, marketing and other costs – were receiving a worrisome amount: zero. These acts were previously being paid directly by SoundExchange, so their unrecouped status with UMG was not an issue for these royalties. “A lot is being withheld, and it feels like a grab for money from the labels,” says Heather Gruber, royalty manager for Fineman West, a business-management firm that represents artists.
Although Pandora has struggled in recent years – monthly users have dropped from 81.5 million in 2014 to 46 million in 2023 – it remains a potent outlet for hitmakers such as SZA, Megan Thee Stallion and Lil Durk, as well as bubbling-under singles like contemporary-Christian singer-songwriter Lauren Daigle’s “These Are the Days.” Newer artists rely on the exposure, too, and Pandora royalties have provided crucial revenue while they absorb touring and merch expenses. “If you’re making millions of dollars, this isn’t going to have a big impact on you,” says Harold Papineau, associate lawyer for King, Holmes, Paterno and Soriano, which represents Metallica and others. “But if you’re living paycheck to paycheck, then this is a significant problem. Now you’ve lost money that you may have relied on to pay your bills.”
In a statement, a UMG representative responded by explaining the difference between interactive (like Spotify, YouTube and Apple Music) and non-interactive streaming services (like internet radio). For the former, recording royalties are “subject to direct negotiation between an individual rights owner and the service,” the rep said, adding that Pandora “has substantially changed its functionality such that it has evolved into an interactive service, where users can select tracks on demand.” In other words: The label has every right to make this change.
Still, UMG didn’t fully change the way it reported the royalties to artists until 2022, and it caught many business managers and music attorneys by surprise. “It kind of happened in the dead of night,” says Mike Merriman, a business manager for the firm PARR3 who represents DJ Alison Wonderland, singer 6lack and producer Louis Bell, among others. “It does create some ambiguity and lack of transparency.”
When the Pandora change first kicked in, business managers were confused about the streaming service’s identity. “We’re still running analysis on it,” says Erica Rosa, owner/vp of royalties and contract compliance at FBMM, a business management firm that represents top artists. “I’ve asked a lot of questions to attorneys and various industry figures: ‘How would you define Pandora? Would you consider it to be an interactive or non-interactive stream? I don’t know that anyone has given a clear definitive answer yet.”
Additional reporting by Glenn Peoples.
Nashville’s Big Loud Records has inked a multi-year distribution deal with Mercury/Republic for all releases, effective immediately.
Previously, only releases from Morgan Wallen, Lily Rose and Dylan Gossett had gone through the partnership, while the rest of the Big Loud roster was distributed through Stem and Amped.
In a memo to the staff obtained by Billboard, Big Loud founders/partners Seth England, Craig Wiseman and Joey Moi stressed that the move is not an acquisition and that the full staff will remain intact: “This partnership allows for Big Loud Records to remain fiercely independent while leveraging their global distribution and resources, as needed, to best serve our world-class roster. Artists and our staff will see increased creative opportunities, robust international support, new multimedia partnerships, additional multi-format promotion muscle and merchandising resources, among many other benefits. And to clarify: Big Loud Records has not been acquired in any way. Our full staff will remain intact and will continue to lead with the artists we represent.”
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The move comes as Mercury/Republic parent Universal Music Group is undergoing a massive restructuring, with the East Coast labels realigning under a new structure called Republic Corps under chairman/CEO Monte Lipman. Mercury will continue to be led by president Tyler Arnold and general manager Ben Adelson.
The announcement arrives as Wallen’s One Day at a Time spends its 19th non-consecutive week at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, breaking the previous record of 18 weeks held by Garth Brooks more than 30 years ago.
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The memo is in its entirety below.
Good afternoon everyone,
We’re writing to share an important update regarding our distribution for Big Loud Records and our affiliate labels.
After many incredible years with Stem and Amped we have decided to enter into a new multi-year distribution deal with Mercury Records/Republic, amplifying our existing partnership with Monte & Avery Lipman as well as Tyler Arnold and the greater Mercury Records/Republic team.
We are immensely grateful for the tireless efforts of Milana, Kristin, Bobby, Alison, and the entire team at both Stem and Amped who have supported our releases for the better half of a decade. Both teams have been an integral part of our growth story and remain a highly recommended distribution and artist resources solution for self-determined artists and companies. We remain proud investors of Stem to this day.
The Big Loud partners and executive leadership team are immeasurably proud of what this roster and staff have accomplished over the past eight years. Our songs, albums, artists, and company have seen the top slots of nearly every chart in our format. Best of all, we’ve earned those accolades with integrity. We’re reaching new heights with broadened creative ventures and international outposts leading our growth into new genres and markets. With this next chapter, we are thrilled to elevate with a like-minded, best-in-class team that’s effectively been the #1 all-genre record label in the business for the last decade. Rest assured, Mercury Records/Republic both mirrors and supports our renegade spirit.
This partnership allows for Big Loud Records to remain fiercely independent while leveraging their global distribution and resources, as needed, to best serve our world-class roster. Artists and our staff will see increased creative opportunities, robust international support, new multimedia partnerships, additional multi-format promotion muscle and merchandising resources, among many other benefits. And to clarify: Big Loud Records has not been acquired in any way. Our full staff will remain intact and will continue to lead with the artists we represent.
Our hope is that this announcement makes you as excited as the partners and the executive leadership team feel because we achieved this together. From the smallest artists to the biggest, it takes the entire village – we are confident Big Loud will be a force to be reckoned with for years to come.
Please feel free to reach out to your department head, Patch, Austen, or Seth if you have any questions.
Sincerely,
Seth, Craig, and Joey