Music

Status: Front-Runner

Did “Yes, And?” walk this winter so that “We Can’t Be Friends” could run this spring and summer? Both songs from Ariana Grande’s recently released Eternal Sunshine reached the top of the Hot 100, but “We Can’t Be Friends” seems to have the longer legs at streaming (topping Streaming Songs chart in its first two weeks of release), and radio is starting to kick in (No. 32 debut on Radio Songs this week). While “Yes, And?” might be more pulse-pounding, “We Can’t Be Friends” possesses a midtempo synth-pop flair that works well in any streaming playlist or radio block – meaning that it might be something like this year’s “Flowers,” and be settling in for a long chart run.

Status: Front-Runner

Time will tell if another Cowboy Carter track establishes itself as the album’s standout summertime single: early streaming returns are strong for Beyoncé’s revamping of “Jolene,” her Miley Cyrus duet “II Most Wanted” and the shimmering jam “Bodyguard.” However, “Texas Hold ‘Em” already has a foothold at top 40 (No. 7 on Radio Songs this week), as well as the Hot 100 pedigree (becoming Bey’s latest No. 1 hit in March) — and even with the 26 other songs around it on the tracklist, streaming listeners are still gravitating towards the previously released country-pop smash this week. Beyoncé could move on to another single before summer arrives, but with its strong pedigree and continued performance, “Texas” has the inside track.

Status: Front-Runner

Yes, the excitement around Kendrick Lamar’s explosive verse will die down in the coming weeks, and true, Future scored a No. 1 hit in the spring two years ago (“Wait For U,” featuring Drake and Tems) that only topped the chart for one week, and never really threatened to become the song of the summer. But “Like That” is more than its shot-taking guest spot – where “Wait For U” reveled in subtleties, the current No. 1 song in the country is a bona fide scorcher, with Future tossing out hooks with gusto and Metro Boomin dicing up “Everlasting Bass” before Kendrick even arrives. The second-frame streaming numbers suggest that “Like That” was not a one-week phenomenon, and regardless of how long it stays at No. 1 on the Hot 100, it’s going to be part of the chart’s upper tier for a while.

Status: Front-Runner

The surprise viral hit has thus far occupied the runner-up spot on the Hot 100, while reaching the top 10 of the Mainstream Top 40 and Adult Top 40 charts; perhaps most encouragingly, “Beautiful Things” has spent multiple weeks atop the Global 200, with the entire world wrapping its arms around Benson Boone’s blistering anthem. A few weeks after unexpectedly crashing the top 10 of the Hot 100, “Beautiful Things” is now a legitimate, multi-quadrant smash, and won’t slide down the chart easily.

Status: Front-Runner

A rhythmic pop single with rock elements and a soulful vocal take, “Lose Control” has wielded its genre-bounding approach to introduce Teddy Swims to an exponentially wider audience and reach the top of the Hot 100. The single is still going strong in the top five during its 33rd week on the chart, and to capture Song of the Summer status, “Lose Control” needs to function a little bit like “Last Night” did last year – a steady presence for months on end in the chart’s upper tier, using its crossover sound to appeal to the masses.

Status: Outside Shot

In the middle of a bunch of top 10 Hot 100 debuts this week from the Future and Metro Boomin project We Don’t Trust You was “Too Sweet,” the soulful, slightly funky alt-rock single that Hozier teased on TikTok before unleashing on a rabid listenership. Its No. 5 Hot 100 was startling coming from a singer-songwriter whose last top 10 hit, “Take Me to Church,” peaked a decade earlier, but Hozier’s latest single looks to be riding the same alt-rock streaming wave that has helped artists like Boone and Noah Kahan recently, and “Too Sweet” must be taken seriously as a durable hit.

Status: Outside Shot

Speaking of alt-rock crossovers, Joe Keery’s music project Djo has become far more than Steve Harrington’s side hustle over the past few months, as “End of Beginning” has transcended its TikTok trend to become a streaming behemoth and creep all the way up to No. 11 on the Hot 100. “End of Beginning” possesses a killer hook and a cool backstory – could it end up aiming at the top of the Hot 100? Stranger Things have hap- okay, sorry, sorry…

Status: Outside Shot

Artemas teased “I Like the Way You Kiss Me” for weeks on TikTok before the springy, darkly propulsive track arrived in full and earned the English-Cypriot singer-songwriter his first Hot 100 entry with a No. 70 bow. The song has a long way to go before competing for a top 10 spot, but its streaming strength is real and still growing, and its hypnotic chorus sounds primed to cross over to traditional platforms after soundtracking a slew of melancholy TikTok clips.

Status: Outside Shot

After “Austin” debuted at No. 74 on the Hot 100 two weeks ago, singer-songwriter Dasha has watched her viral country hit hustle up the chart, where it comes in at No. 53 this week. The clap-along, line-dance-inspiring single may be slightly forlorn and full of rhetorical questions, but Dasha has mined an immediate hit that could start appealing to pop fans just as much as country radio diehards in the coming months.

Status: Outside Shot

After breaking out last year with “Pound Town” and “SkeeYee,” and earning an enviable guest spot on Drake’s crossover hit “Rich Baby Daddy,” Sexyy Red’s boisterous new single is the sound of a rising hip-hop star cashing in her new cred for a big, undeniable smash. The song’s No. 23 debut on the Hot 100 is Sexyy Red’s highest showing as a lead artist to date, and “Get It Sexyy” sounds like a monster windows-down summer single, with entire blocks chanting “I ain’t lyinnnn’” along with the rapper.

Status: TBD

It’s her, hi: The Tortured Poets Department is just a couple weeks away, and is almost guaranteed to score one of 2024’s biggest album debuts. Meanwhile, Taylor Swift’s last album, 2022’s Midnights, spawned “Anti-Hero,” which became her longest-leading Hot 100 No. 1 to date. We won’t know what Poets sounds like (or what its potential smash hit will be) until Apr. 19, but considering the timing of the album release and Swift’s track record, you simply cannot bet against her involvement in this year’s Song of the Summer race.

Status: TBD

The advance singles from Radical Optimism haven’t left the stratosphere yet, but Lipa remains one of top 40’s surest things – it was just last summer that her Barbie soundtrack single “Dance The Night” became ubiquitous. Maybe upcoming single “Illusion” will burn even brighter than “Houdini” or “Training Season,” or something else from the May album could break through; either way, Lipa is unlikely to go Houdini in this Song of the Summer showdown.

Status: TBD

The recent release and top 10 debut of “Enough (Miami)” demonstrated two things: that Cardi B is back, and that she hasn’t lost an ounce of her commercial appeal. The wait for the Invasion of Privacy follow-up continues, but Cardi has been active in the studio as a lead artist and collaborator, and any sort of pop-leaning single that she has primed for the summertime could make a lot of noise.

Status: TBD

Lana, the upcoming project by SZA that was originally pegged as an SOS deluxe edition and has since evolved into a standalone, still doesn’t have a release date, but lead single “Saturn” did streak to a top 10 debut on the Hot 100 upon its February release. “Kill Bill” and “Snooze” proved that the R&B superstar has become an elite hitmaker, and if Lana arrives soon and contains a song on that level, SZA could rule the summer.

Finally, Billie Eilish is teasing… something… that suggests a third album era could be coming sooner than later. In between all of the Grammy and Oscar wins is an artist who enters the top 20 of the Hot 100 with seemingly every song release. Maybe we’re about to find out, all these years later, that “You Should See Me in a Crown” is about the 2024 Song of the Summer race.