inflation
Anyone who has bought a vinyl record or a CD in recent years knows full well that physical music products aren’t exempt from the inflation that has plagued U.S. consumers.
In fact, the price of a vinyl record in the U.S. rose 25.5% from 2017 to 2023, according to Billboard’s analysis of RIAA data — slightly more than the 24.3% increase in the consumer price index over the same time. CD prices fared a bit better, increasing just 20.4%.
However, while music subscription prices are rising, consumers can probably expect physical music prices to remain somewhat level going forward: Insiders who spoke with Billboard say vinyl prices are remaining steady in 2024 after the COVID-19 pandemic created supply chain problems and raised the costs of everything from raw materials to labor.
As one music distribution executive put it, those supply chain problems are “flattening out.” As a result, turnaround times have improved drastically as manufacturers worked through their pandemic-era order backlogs. “I feel like the prices will flatten, too,” says the executive.
Trending on Billboard
“Our manufacturing prices have been stable for quite a while,” says Bill Hein, CEO of Pressing Business. Freight costs can be improved if a buyer books with flexible dates, Hein says, and reliable sea freight is being used for more of its U.S. deliveries. “Generally speaking, both air and sea freight are more predictable now than they were during the lockdown era, and prices are generally better.”
Outside of the music business, rising prices on everyday necessities have been a fact of life. Tired of the inflation that has eaten into their paychecks, Americans are pushing back against the high cost of staples, and companies are responding with attempts to reduce prices.
In July, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta suggested consumers had grown tired of more than two years of rising prices. “Some parts of the [Frito-Lay] portfolio need value adjustment,” he said during a July 11 earnings call. Overall sales volume was down 4% in its most recent quarter, and North American beverage sales for the company dipped 3%. PepsiCo will respond, Laguarta said, by offering better deals and increasing advertising. For some consumers, Laguarta added, “we need some new entry price points.”
Companies across the economy are sharing PepsiCo’s experience with price-fatigued shoppers. Walmart is offering more short-term discounts. Target lowered prices. Fast food giants McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Taco Bell are courting customers through low-cost bundles and value-oriented menus. And because it’s an election year, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has floated a federal ban on price gouging in the grocery and food industries.
Since vinyl prices are based heavily on manufacturing costs, there’s little to prevent prices from creeping up without sellers losing profits. Vinyl retailers set prices based on wholesale costs and their need to cover overhead and other expenses. Artists on record labels must pay the wholesale price for their physical goods and don’t have control over pressing and printing costs, says Paul Steele, executive partner at Triple 8 Management. “Physical prices for our roster of nearly 30 artists have mostly stayed the same for a decade, with small inflationary increases here or there,” he says.
But aside from run-of-the-mill inflation, there are other factors that could push the average sale price higher. Physical music is increasingly a luxury good — a high-priced collectible item with packaging to match. Artists frequently release multiple variants of LPs with colored vinyl. And albums released today commonly have the expensive gatefold packaging that was common in the ‘70s.
The way music is released in the streaming era also drives up prices. Artists take advantage of the unlimited shelf space on streaming platforms by stuffing albums with more songs at no extra cost. As Billboard noted last year, the top 10 albums’ average number of songs rose from 13.2 in 2014 to 19.1 in 2022. A double album on a vinyl record is more expensive, and as one executive notes, putting more songs on an album will often — but not always — require paying more mechanical royalties to songwriters and publishers.
Indeed, some of the most popular vinyl records of the moment are double- or triple-LPs. Post Malone’s 18-track, two-LP album F-1 Trillion sells for $45.89 at Amazon and more at other retailers. Zach Bryan’s 34-track American Heartbreak has three LPs and a $44.98 list price. And that’s not to mention the more extravagant reissues, such as a 2-LP/2-CD/1-Blu-ray package for Van Halen’s For Unlawful Carnal Knowledge that carries a $99.98 list price.
Despite the increase in vinyl prices over the last several years, sales have yet to abate. Will that continue? The answer to that question will likely lie with younger consumers who have less disposable income. Michael Kurtz, co-founder of Record Store Day, says vinyl being a premium, collectible product is toughest on younger consumers. While Record Store Day succeeded in helping turn a new generation on to vinyl records, younger people don’t have as much money and are cutting back on their purchases. “A young customer 18 months ago would come to the counter with two or three records,” says Kurtz. “Now they come to the counter with one or maybe two.”
Catalog titles are often the more affordable option and help offset frontline price creep. Michael Jackson’s Thriller can be had for under $25. Fleetwood Mac’s perennial top-seller Rumours is offered in both affordable and more deluxe versions. Rhino Records’ Now Playing series of compilations for artists ranging from The Stooges to Gram Parsons to John Prine are priced at $19.99.
The good news — for all consumers — is that price growth is reverting to historical norms. The average monthly U.S. inflation rate reached 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023. This year, the average monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) is just 3.2% through July. If vinyl prices seem like they’re continuing to creep upward, the packaging and the increasing prevalence of the double album are likely to blame.
If the price of an individual streaming subscription plan were adjusted for inflation in 2023, it would cost $13.25 instead of roughly $10 a month, Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl said on Wednesday (March 8) — a statistic that doubled as a plea for streaming companies that have yet to raise fees to get in line.
While several of the big music streaming companies — including Apple, Amazon and Deezer — have raised their baseline prices recently, the biggest one of all, Spotify, has so far held off on raising the $9.99 pricetag on its U.S. premium subscription plan. Though Kyncl didn’t specifically address Spotify on Wednesday, when he spoke at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference, he said companies that haven’t raised their prices are playing a role in the undervaluing of music.
“We are the lowest (cost) form of entertainment,” he said. “We have the highest …engagement, highest form of affinity and lowest per hour price. That doesn’t seem right. It should change in an orderly fashion.”
While Kyncl is far from an unbiased commenter on price hikes — music labels stand to gain significant revenues from DSPs raising their subscription prices — Kyncl says the 12 years he spent at YouTube has shown him companies can raise prices if they have a product consumers cherish.
“YouTube TV has grown its subscription from $35 to $70 while growing … because they have a superior product,” Kyncl said.
During the wide-ranging presentation, Kyncl also expressed empathy for executives at TikTok who are at “a company that’s kind of embattled today with lots of different institutions around the world.”
“As someone who’s kind of gone through that, it is much better to have friends and not fight a war on every flank,” he added, recalling the contentious relationship YouTube once had with the music industry.
TikTok is engaged in ongoing negotiations over remuneration to rights holders, a group that includes Warner Music Group (WMG). On Wednesday, Kyncl noted WMG is open to a friendlier dynamic with the popular music discovery tool so long as it works for “both sides.”
“That’s all I look for, fair setup on both sides and to grow a business together,” Kyncl added.
In a year historically high inflation has wreaked havoc on the costs of both touring and producing music, musicians and record labels received a bit of reprieve — thanks to high inflation.
The Copyright Royalty Board, which sets royalty rates for some streams in the United States, announced on Dec. 2 that per-stream rates for noninteractive webcasters’ streams will take a big jump in 2023: commercial webcasters will pay 0.3 cents per stream for subscription performances, up 7.1% from 0.28 cents in 2022, and 0.24 cents per stream for ad-supported performances, up 9.1% from 0.22 cents. Non-commercial webcasters’ per-stream royalty rate for 2023 is 0.24 cents for all digital audio transmissions in excess of 159,140 aggregate tuning hours in a month on a channel or station.
The CRB’s calculated the adjustment by multiplying the base rate by the percentage change in the CPI-U published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics before Dec. 1, 2022 (298.012), and the CPI-U for Nov. 2020 (260.229). In 2015, the CRB decided to add an annual cost-of-living adjustment to royalty rates paid for plays of programmed streams for 2016 to 2020. The rates for the current period, 2021 2025, are also adjusted annually. Previously, the CRB established a slate of increasing rates for a five-year period and did not revisit the rates annually.
Artists are ensured to feel the bump in royalty rates because webcasting royalties are paid by streaming services to SoundExchange, which distributes payments directly to performing artists from noninteractive webcasters such as Pandora. In contrast, on-demand services cannot operate under a statutory license and must secure licensing agreements from record labels. So, royalties from on-demand services such as as Spotify and Apple Music are paid directly to labels, which in turn pay artists according to the terms of the recording contract (or don’t pay artists if expenses have not been recouped).
A raise from noninteractive webcasters affects only a minority of an artist’s digital revenues, however. SoundExchange distributions – which also include royalties for performances by satellite radio and cable broadcasters — in the first half of 2022 declined 4.5% year over year to $464.9 million, according to the RIAA. That was about 7.2% of total streaming royalties, down from 34.4% in 2016. Today, most streaming royalties come from paid subscription services, which accounted for $4.5 billion of revenue in the first half of the year and are growing at nearly at double-digit rate.
Still, noninteractive streaming royalties have risen considerably over the years thanks to the cost-of-living adjustments. In 2016, a webcaster such as Pandora paid out 0.22 cents per stream for subscription plays and 0.17 cents for ad-supported plays. Low inflation meant the rates increased only once over the next five years. A new slate of rates for 2021 to 2025 brought the rates to 0.24 cents for subscription plays and 0.21 cents for ad-supported plays in 2021. The cost-of-living adjustments for 2022 took the rates to 0.28 cents and 0.22, respectively.
When Live Nation reported $1.8 billion in first-quarter revenue in May, CEO Michael Rapino told investors, “Artists are back on the road and fan demand has never been stronger.” But while the concert business has largely returned to financial health in 2022 after a wobbly recovery last year, a number of acts eager to get back on the road and tap back into their primary income stream have instead found prohibitive costs that would significantly eat into or eliminate profits. And that has left them frustrated, if not furious, that the bullish picture painted by promoters and venues has eluded them.
A confluence of devastating economic factors — gas prices, artists flooding venues to make up revenue lost in the pandemic, airport chaos, supply chain shortages for tour buses, drivers, crew and equipment — has throttled even the heartiest of touring acts, especially indie artists. “The smaller shows are getting annihilated,” says Brian Ross, manager of Thievery Corporation, Guerilla Toss and Forty Feet Tall. He estimates net tour profits dropped 10% to 15% in spring and summer due to higher expenses.
Since Rapino’s rosy report in the spring, numerous previously successful touring acts have canceled shows for a variety of reasons, from COVID-19 to mental health to expenses, including Justin Bieber, Shawn Mendes, Ringo Starr, Jimmy Buffett and Animal Collective. “It’s pretty bad out there,” says Tom Windish, the Wasserman agency head of A&R who represents Billie Eilish, Tove Lo, Viagra Boys and others. “A lot of bands are going out on tour thinking they’re going to make money, and they came home and lost money.” Before the pandemic, Windish adds, many artists made their take-home pay on the “last 20% of the revenue — and now that 20% goes away.”
“It’s an extraordinarily challenging time,” says Joady Harper, founder and CEO of Rocky Road Touring, agent for U.K. bands The Mission, The Chameleons and Theatre of Hate, which postponed their 32-date triple bill club and theater tour until fall 2023 due to exorbitant costs and difficulties procuring visas. “Everybody’s sitting at home, twiddling their thumbs and counting their pennies, because the income they thought they’d have for that period just isn’t there.”
For Harper, whose company represents more than 50 acts, 2022 began in a “high spot,” with artists excited to hit the road post-quarantine and fans buying plentiful tickets. Then Russia invaded Ukraine, gas prices and plane fares shot up, and many tours were “no longer financially viable.”
“All of that on top of the already-tapped mental, spiritual, physical and emotional resources of just having made it through the past few years,” Santigold posted on Facebook in September when she announced she was canceling her tour. “Some of us are finding ourselves simply unable to make it work,” she wrote, striking a chord with frustrated musicians.
With a larger number of acts booked into a pandemic-reduced number of venues, the concert business’ supply-and-demand mechanics have shifted as well. An act that drew 1,000 fans to a show might now wind up with 800 people, according to David T. Viecelli, Chicago agent for Pavement, Joanna Newsom, Bonnie “Prince” Billy and Wire. “There’s too much going on, and people aren’t going to four shows a week anymore,” he says.
Even for largely sold-out tours like Pavement, the no-show rate has spiked due to illness or fear of it, which means a drop in merchandise sales, he adds. “It kind of hits you from all sides.”
In order to stay on the road, artists are strategically cutting costs. Ann Henningsen, who manages singer-songwriter Chris Berardo, says he has been performing more frequently with his acoustic trio than his preferred six-man rock band. Ross says Guerilla Toss has cut down on hotels. Sam Luria, who manages New Zealand’s Broods, says the duo’s lighting director programs the technology remotely rather than traveling with the crew. “You’re getting a pretty similar outcome,” he says, “but saving a good amount of money.”
One solution is that bands who might have been poised for headlining tours are pairing with others — Bodysnatcher is opening for Hatebreed, for example. “Maybe you’re not going to sell the same level of merchandise you would, but eventually you will,” says Scott Givens, senior vp of rock and metal at MNRK, the label representing Bodysnatcher. “You don’t want anybody losing money.”
Givens is optimistic the touring economic storm will pass, hoping for a broader recovery in the world economy. “We’ll be fine,” he says. Jeff DeLia, manager of The Blind Boys of Alabama, A.J. Croce and others, acknowledges the financial pain but adds that his clients remain upbeat, telling him, “We know this isn’t going to last, and we’ve just got to fight through these things.”
-
Pages