five burning questions

Even at the end of a fairly absurd three-month rush of new releases from A-listers and breakout hits from up-and-comers, Billie Eilish‘s third album Hit Me Hard and Soft has managed to make a real impact. The album moves 339,000 units in its first week of release — over 100,000 more than 2021’s Happier Than Ever — while also charting all 10 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100 dated June 1, led by the No. 5-bowing “Lunch,” the highest-debuting song of her career.

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It’s still only good for the No. 2 spot on the Billboard 200, however, as Taylor Swift reigns there for a fifth week with her The Tortured Poets Department blockbuster. The chart race between the two pop superstars got a good deal of attention from fans last week, particularly as both artists continued to release new editions of their respective albums throughout the tracking week, boosting their overall numbers in the process.

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Does the first-week performance still represent a success for Eilish, even without the No. 1? And which A-lister could be next with a big release now that the calendar finally looks a little less crowded for a bit? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Billie Eilish debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with Hit Me Hard and Soft — her first album not to enter at No. 1, but with the best first-week number of her career (339,000). On a scale from 1-10, how pleased do you think Eilish and her team should be with this first-week performance?

Katie Atkinson: I’m thinking a 5. Sure, she had the best first-week numbers of her career, but it has to sting to not to debut at No. 1 after her two previous chart-toppers. Both of those albums (Happier Than Ever and When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?) ended up spending three weeks atop the Billboard 200, so it remains to be seen whether Hit Me Hard and Soft could eventually reach the pinnacle, which might soften the blow of this No. 2 start.

Hannah Dailey: I would say 9! Those numbers are great. If you’ve already topped your own biggest-week benchmarks and are cruising in at an impressive No. 2, the desire to have had a perfect No. 1 is really just an optics issue at this point. She should be really proud. 

Lyndsey Havens: 9. Billie’s first-week numbers helped make history when Hit Me along with Taylor Swift’s Tortured Poets led to the first time in eight years that two albums surpassed 300,000 units in the same tracking week. That’s no small feat. And while of course scoring a third consecutive No. 1 on the chart would have been nice for Eilish – and had it not been for those few extra variants from Swift, quite possible, too – the numbers alone seem to hold more weight. To have that significant of an influence today – and with a third album for which there were no previously-released singles – should make team Eilish incredibly proud.

Meghan Mahar: 8. Happier Than Ever debuted with 238,000 units, so this means Eilish saw a 49% increase in sales — a clear testament to her staying power as an artist. The growth clearly demonstrates that Eilish’s consistent delivery and constant development as an artist has visibly paid off — and as much as a No. 1 would further validate this, I don’t think it’s necessary. There are artists who have undeniable impact on music and culture for years who have rarely cracked the No. 1 spot, like Lana Del Rey, who also likely wouldn’t break through in the aftermath of a Taylor Swift release. I think the No. 1 would have been nice to have — but it leaves more to be desired in the future.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s about an 8. That 339,000 number is jaw-dropping — bigger even than When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go, whose release was about as big a moment as we’ve seen from a (non-Swift) pop star in the past five years or so. But Eilish certainly seemed motivated to gun for the No. 1 spot, so the fact that she fell just short there does knock her down a couple points. Still a triumphant week for her, no doubt.

2. The 339,000 first-week number is even more notable due to the fact that Eilish’s album includes only 10 tracks — a relatively scant number for the streaming age — and featured no advance single releases. Do you think this strategy is one other artists should be taking note of, or is it one that just worked better for Eilish than it likely would for most of her peers?

Katie Atkinson: I hope these shorter album run-times are a trend; Ariana Grande and Dua Lipa both kept things relatively brisk over the past couple of months as well, with 13 tracks (35 minutes) for Eternal Sunshine and 11 tracks (36 minutes) for Radical Optimism. Grande also took the “less is more” approach to advance singles, dropping only “Yes, And?” ahead of release week. The one way Eilish and Swift’s latest albums coincide is not in album length, of course, but in that both kept every song and video under wraps until release day. I think we’re going to see more and more of that from A-list artists, because they don’t need the promotion a lead single has historically provided. The fact that they’re releasing new music is promotion enough — so why not get every drop of sales and streams out of release week?

Hannah Dailey: I really feel like the jury is still out on this one. On the one hand, it also worked for Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine, which topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks at just 35 minutes long. Then again, Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Taylor Swift’s Tortured Poets each ruled the chart for multiple weeks (the latter of which is still doing so, obviously) and both clocked in at 1-2 hours. It might be more of a question of knowing what your specific fanbase favors and tailoring your approach to that preference. 

Lyndsey Havens: It’s an incredibly badass move that, in my opinion, few can pull off. To head into a rollout cycle with so much confidence – knowing that the album you made is so perfect, so concise and so well formatted – that you don’t need to release anything prior is a trust that Eilish and Finneas have earned from their respective and joint fanbases. And while they did of course tease the album – most notably at a Boiler Room-style set during Coachella – the fact that such breadcrumbs were enough to sustain fans’ appetites is surely a strategy worth taking note of. But only for the few artists who can do the same.

Meghan Mahar: I think the length of Hit Me Hard and Soft is a mindful choice not only for Eilish and her team, but for her fans. The fans are treated to a quality body of work that they can slowly digest — instead of “claiming” a track, listeners can enjoy the package deal. Eilish can tour this album, perform most (if not all) of the tracks live, and still have plenty of room for selects from elsewhere in her discography. Above all, what I find most compelling in the streaming landscape is that the brevity of this project likely implies more music went unreleased — perhaps this is a long-term strategy to shorten Eilish’s release cycles as fans continue to beg for new music. There is a strong case for this approach for artists with rabid, loyal fanbases like Eilish’s — and likely why shorter cycles work for artists in K-pop and similar genres.

Andrew Unterberger: I think when you compare the relatively truncated rollouts for Hit Me and Eternal Sunshine with a more traditional extended unveiling like the one Dua Lipa had for Training Season, it’s kinda undeniable that the former strategy is proving more effective for 2024. Of course this only really matters when you’re at the arena-touring level these three A-listers have long been at — since they’re the only ones who can really afford to eschew promotion and still ensure attention for new projects — but for artists who have been established at that tier, going the all- or mostly-all-at-once route seems the smart path these days.

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3. “Lunch” is the best-performing song from the set so far, debuting at No. 5 on the Hot 100. Do you think it will go onto be the breakout hit from this album — or do you see another song on the tracklist ultimately passing it for those honors?

Katie Atkinson: I think “Lunch” will remain my favorite from the album, but the other song that has been sticking with me is “Chihiro.” It has such a great vibe that I could see it having life beyond release week. Finneas deserves love for the production on this album overall, and I think “Chihiro” might be his finest work.

Hannah Dailey: The other two contenders for the album’s breakout hit are definitely “Chihiro” — which surprises me, only because it feels more like a cool soundscape than a traditionally structured song, but people are obsessed with it – and “Birds of a Feather.” “Lunch” is a great song, but something tells me one of those other two will have more longevity. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think given the way in which this album was promoted, “Lunch” benefitted the most from being teased during Coachella and online after the fact. Plus, it’s the most lyrically splashy song on the album, as Eilish dances around the subject of oral sex. Plus-plus, as is true of every other song on the album, the production is killer. So while it makes sense that this would be the initial hit off the project, I think there are some slow-burns like “Birds of Feather” or “Blue” that could take off. But then again “The Greatest” has that incredible build, and of course “Chihiro” is an unexpected trip and… suddenly, it’s incredibly obvious why there were no prior singles. How could they choose?

Meghan Mahar: I have a strong feeling that “Lunch” will be the biggest breakout hit from this album, but I have high hopes for “Birds of a Feather.” It’s a well-written pop song, and its ‘80s-inspired production is on the nose for the current wave of nostalgic sounds fans are gravitating toward. I could see this doing well in radio and being well-received by both Eilish’s younger fans and their parents. This has been a successful formula for other superstars like The Weeknd, so I can see Eilish pulling this off without a hitch.

Andrew Unterberger: “Lunch” seems like the one for me, but “Birds of a Feather” is showing impressive strength on streaming (and is also great). It might come down to which of the two radio embraces; “Lunch” feels like the easier fit on the airwaves between “Million Dollar Baby” and “Espresso,” but can a song with a relatively un-radio-editable “I could eat that girl for lunch” hook really be accepted by top 40? Will be interesting to see, certainly.

4. With Hit Me Hard and Soft providing the most formidable challenger yet to Taylor Swift’s now-five-week run at No. 1 with Tortured Poets Department, both artists released a number of new editions of their respective new albums throughout the tracking week — in a manner that was interpreted by many fans and onlookers as both artists specifically pushing to stay ahead of the other one. Would you have any issues with Swift and Eilish pressing for the No. 1 in this manner, or is it all in the spirit of healthy competition on the charts?

Katie Atkinson: This is hardly the first example of artists gunning for No. 1, but it might be the most high-profile and the most transparent. I’m always going to stump for healthy competition on the charts, since it means that Billboard’s charts matter that much to artists and fans. So put me down for a front-row seat to the chart Olympics.

Hannah Dailey: I don’t feel too strongly about this either way, but if I was going to take a stance, it would be that the one-upping is a little grating. I believe that the charts’ purpose is to represent and document which music is the biggest in the country/world each week, not just whose fanbase is willing to buy the most versions of an album — which is exactly what those actions end up reducing it to after a certain point.  

Lyndsey Havens: Look, however an artist wants to promote their album is fine by me, assuming it’s all part of the grander creative vision for how their art can be consumed and enjoyed. And I’m all for healthy competition – but not when it comes at the literal expense of the fans. We will likely never know the real reason why these new editions arrived when they did or what the real reasoning for them was, but all I do know was that it did have a healthy result for the industry in the end. The fact that an eight-year drought of albums surpassing 300,000 units in the same week has been broken by two unbelievably talented women is a win enough for me.

Meghan Mahar: As a big fan of both Eilish and Swift, this back and forth was painful to watch. I think the way each artist pressed for the spot is all in the spirit of the game and shows good sportsmanship — I just hate to see two brilliant women pitted against each other, when team Eilish likely would have been employing the same strategies whether it was Swift in the No. 1 spot or another unbeatable chart titan like Drake. And generally, as a consumer, I am experiencing variant fatigue. I know that releasing multiple versions of albums with different tracks is primarily geared toward the superfans who are eager to support their favorite artists, but when there’s a massive wave of pop album releases, tours, etc. and everything is getting more expensive, it feels somewhat exploitative.

Andrew Unterberger: The practice in itself isn’t necessarily gauche — and we of course all love a chart race with a little extra sauce to it — but the degree of it is certainly beginning to border on the excessive, and I don’t blame the fans who are starting to voice their irritation with it. Maybe we just need to install some sort of baseball-style “unwritten rules” system of best practices when it comes to pop star album variant releases, that all the biggest artists sorta silently agree to abide by except for in extreme situations. Otherwise the arms race may never end, and it’s the biggest fans who will suffer for it.

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5. After a jam-packed late-winter and spring of new albums from A-list pop stars, it appears that we may now finally have at least a couple weeks before the next one is scheduled. Who’s a major artist rumored (or just kinda past due) for a major release this summer who you think might also be geared for a debut on Hit Me’s level?

Katie Atkinson: This feels like cheating since she already nodded to it, but I’m very ready for the next Lady Gaga album. At the end of her Chromatica Ball film, which premiered over the weekend, she flashed the words “LG7. Gaga returns.” Is it too much to hope that she’ll return sooner than later? It feels like her upcoming role as Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie a Deux could have pushed her into some of the weirder, darker pop spaces where she thrives. Ariana gifted us with a pre-Wicked album; could Gaga drop this summer ahead of the sequel’s Oct. 4 release date?

Hannah Dailey: I would be floored to see a Katy Perry renaissance this year. But my money is on Chappell Roan releasing an album that makes all of the momentum she’s built this past year finally boil over and explode, earning her the title of mainstream superstar at last. 

Lyndsey Havens: L A DY G A G A. I think it’s safe to say we are all waiting patiently for the pop diva’s return – and while it feels like it can’t come soon enough, greatness can’t be rushed. And let’s not forget about that long-awaited Post Malone country album… given the numbers of its likely lead single with Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help,” and taking into account the many chart records Wallen holds himself, that could be the next album to thrive atop the Billboard 200 for several weeks upon its release. 

Meghan Mahar: There aren’t a lot of artists who can debut at or above Eilish’s level but I’m hoping Harry Styles releases a new album this year. If he follows his rollout schedule of releasing an album every two years, he’s due for a drop. I’ve seen rumors that he is going to put out new music in Q3 and he was spotted going to a studio in London in March. Fingers crossed.

Andrew Unterberger: A new Zach Bryan album is reportedly due in June — and if you thought his self-titled album got a big reception when that dropped last August, just wait till you see what he does with a new LP now that he’s scored a Hot 100-topping smash, embarked upon a major arenas-and-stadiums tour, and generally seen his brand of rootsy alt-country become one of the dominant strains of popular music.

It’s been some kind of 2024 for Post Malone. Nabbing a spot on the guest list for Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter album (on the top 20 Billboard Hot 100 hit “Levii’s Jeans”) in March would be year-defining accomplishment enough for 99% of artists, but he followed that up just a month later with an appearance on “Fortnight,” Hot 100-topping lead single for Taylor Swift’s blockbuster The Tortured Poets Department album.

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And now, he’s got a third mega-collab that looks to be on its way to being his biggest yet: “I Had Some Help,” recorded with country superstar Morgan Wallen, debuts atop the Hot 100 this week with absurd first-week numbers in streams, sales and radio play — instantly leaping to the front of a historically crowded field on this week’s loaded chart. This time, Post does it as the lead artist, as “Help” is set to be the advance single from his upcoming album, hyped as the hybrid hitmaker’s full pivot to country music.

Does “Help” automatically make Country Post a successful endeavor? And will “I Had Some Help” buck current Hot 100 trends by holding atop the chart for some time to come? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Despite arriving at one of the most competitive moments in recent pop history — including a culture-swallowing Drake-Kendrick Lamar feud, massive viral hits from Sabrina Carpenter, Shaboozey and Tommy Richman, and even a record-setting Taylor Swift album (whose lead single Post himself assisted on) — “I Had Some Help” debuts at No. 1 this week. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you that the song was able to immediately power its way to the top of such a loaded Hot 100?

Kyle Denis: 2. Sure, Posty entered 2024 on a bit of a commercial decline – but this is the artist with the most RIAA Diamond singles in history we’re talking about here! You team him up with Wallen, the voice behind 2023 Year-End Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 single “Last Night,” and you’re guaranteed an instant smash. Of course, there are a few other elements that made the timing right. Country music is probably the buzziest mainstream genre right now, they debuted the song live at Stagecoach 2024 and Posty is coming off a pair of blockbuster collabs with the two defining pop stars of our time: Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. 

Lyndsey Havens: Is “0” an option? Even if the song wasn’t such a smash, given the collaborators alone, this song was always going to come out swinging. Both Wallen and Posty are quite comfortable atop the Billboard charts – and seem to climb there time and time again with ease. And while the Hot 100’s upper echelon has been especially fun lately, and welcoming of newcomers, when you put two veteran hitmakers together on an undeniably catchy country-pop song amid a hot streak for the former genre, it’s a recipe for chart-topping success. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 3. Sure, it’s a crowded moment near the top of the Hot 100, but Morgan Wallen had proven to possess the star power to slice through any chart competition thrown his way — after all, 2023 was a busy year in pop, and he owned the longest-leading album (One Thing at a Time) and No. 1 hit (“Last Night”) on the Billboard 200 and Hot 100, respectively. Considering the added juice of a Post Malone collaboration, and the summer-friendly, anthemic vibe of “I Had Some Help,” it’s not shocking that the song debuted atop the Hot 100, regardless of what else might have blocked its path.

Jessica Nicholson: 5. “I Had Some Help” arrives with the combined star power of Post Malone and Wallen (whose albums have been entrenched at the upper ranks of the Billboard 200 over the past three years). Also, the song has not only massive streaming numbers, but solid radio support — becoming the first song to reach the top 10 on the Country Airplay chart in two or fewer weeks since Garth Brooks with “More Than a Memory” in 2007. Plus, the song released in a sweet spot just weeks following the release of Taylor’s blockbuster album and the surge of many of those viral hits (Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and Carpenter’s “Espresso” have been on the Hot 100 for five weeks, and Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” for three weeks), further opening a window for “I Had Some Help” to dominate. 

Andrew Unterberger: Let’s say a 4. At this time a couple years ago, it would’ve been a 0, obviously — but at this point of 2024, things are crowded enough and Post had cooled off enough commercially (at least as a lead artist) that I didn’t think it was a given that this (or any song really) would just sail in to No. 1 on the Hot 100. But it obviously sounded like a hit, and people have obviously responded to it like a hit, so can’t really say it’s that surprising, even with the larger context.

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2. Despite Post Malone being the lead artist on the song, it takes place on featured artist Morgan Wallen’s sonic home turf. Which one of the two do you think the song belongs to more — and which do you think its immediate success is more meaningful for? 

Kyle Denis: “I Had Some Help” is definitely country, but, melodically, it’s a pretty natural progression from Posty’s pop-rock bangers like “Circles” and “Chemical.” I also think the track’s immediate success is more meaningful for Post Malone. Last year, Wallen took “Last Night” to the top five of Pop Airplay without a remix or a guest artist, signaling the completion of his redemption arc after his 2021 N-word slur controversy. With a Year-End No. 1 single and sold-out stadiums to his name, Wallen has already proven his pop bonafides, but Malone hasn’t done the same for his country chops yet. The success of “Help” is a very good sign for his forthcoming country album and his future on the notoriously insular format. 

Lyndsey Havens: I’ve been wondering this myself, and think part of why it’s succeeding is because it’s a bit unclear. Morgan welcomed Post onstage during his headlining Stagecoach set to debut the song – yet Post’s Stagecoach merch, a single t-shirt, read, “‘I Had Some Help’ is a song featuring Morgan Wallen on Post Malone’s new album.” And during last week’s Academy of Country Music Awards, Post performed the song solo, and it landed just as well. I think the fact that it doesn’t really seem to matter who the song belongs to is the secret sauce here – the fact that both artists have seen a spike in consumption of their back catalogs seems to be further proof.

Plus, the fact that both Wallen and Post have something to gain is worth remembering; for Wallen, a co-sign from a mostly universally beloved artist such as Post Malone can only help public opinion, while for Post, a co-sign from country’s top reigning artist today can only help the community rally around his entry into the genre even more. All of which is to say, I think the success of this song is equally meaningful for both artists, and their respective fanbases. 

Jason Lipshutz: Although Post Malone dominates the opening verse and chorus, “I Had Some Help” belongs to Wallen, both in terms of the country production as well as the adoption of his persona. The song may be more uptempo than Wallen’s past smashes, but the arrangement is right in his wheelhouse, and the post-breakup messiness of the lyrics is a topic he’s ruminated on quite a bit over the course of his career. “I Had Some Help” contains an edgy bitterness atypical of a festival-ready singalong, but Wallen sells the sourness, and ropes in Posty for moral support.  

Jessica Nicholson: Sonically, this feels like it belongs to Wallen, as it is right in his wheelhouse, and counts some of Wallen’s mainstay country writers in the song’s credits. The song’s success has more meaning for Posty, as this marks his official foray into the country genre, with a cosign from a stadium-level performer in Wallen — which is an asset in a genre that has historically often been wary of pop “outsiders” crossing into the country lane.

Andrew Unterberger: To be honest, I often have to remind myself that this isn’t just a Morgan Wallen song. Which isn’t to say that it doesn’t feel like a Post song too, or that his contributions are negligible, but this song is so firmly in the sonic lane that Wallen established with the title tracks of his Dangerous and One Thing at a Time albums — my favorite songs on their respective albums, worth saying — that “Help” just feels to me like him finishing the trilogy. But it’s obviously a bigger boost to Post: Wallen can do no wrong commercially at the moment, but Post really kinda needed the help for a “Help”-sized hit.

3. “Help” represents the first release in Post Malone’s long-buzzed-about pivot to country music. Do you think a smash like “I Had Some Help” already pre-certifies his musical transition as a successful one, or do you think we still have to wait for the full album is out to say for sure? 

Kyle Denis: I don’t think “Help” pre-certifies anything. Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” made country radio history, but she’s yet to launch another successful country hit off Cowboy Carter that lasted beyond the release week rush. “Help” could very well become the 2024 song of the summer, but that doesn’t automatically mean the album will be a smash as well. I say we wait and see, but my gut (and brain) tells me that Posty is already in a much better position than Queen Bey. 

Lyndsey Havens: I’m biased on this one, since I’ve been saying this transition would be as smooth as Raising Cane’s special sauce since Post uploaded an acoustic cover of Bob Dylan’s “Don’t Think Twice, It’s All Right” to YouTube 10 years ago. While I never doubted the sonic shift would land, I do think debuting with a global smash that features a star like Wallen will surely help his forthcoming album arrive as a success.

Jason Lipshutz: As big as “Help” already is, we’ll see just how successful a Post Malone country album proves to be. Although he’s had a splashy year as a collaborator, we’re less than a year removed from a solo album, Austin, that took some bold sonic chances but underperformed commercially. Wallen’s co-sign will help engrain Posty to mainstream country listeners, though, so if he wants to really nail this pivot from a charts perspective, let’s hope the project is ready to get rolling soon, while “Help” is still putting up huge streaming and radio numbers.

Jessica Nicholson: Texas native Post Malone has already earned co-signs in the country space by performing with Brad Paisley, Sara Evans and Dwight Yoakam at Stagecoach — and teaming with one of country music’s most successful current artists in Wallen certainly doesn’t hurt. The song has reached an essential milestone of being accepted by country radio, ranking at No. 9 on the Country Airplay chart, in just a handful of weeks on the chart. Post Malone’s ACM Awards performance included a preview of new music that sounded very influenced by traditional country sounds. It’s clear that he’s been accepted by his fellow artists, but also by the fans — if the time he spent shaking hands with fans at Stagecoach (and making that personal connection which is still important in the country genre) is any indication. Taken together, it is an auspicious start; still, to fully cement his success in the country genre, it would be great to see him have a solo country hit. So we’ll have to wait and see.

Andrew Unterberger: Having his biggest hit since (at least) “Circles” is obviously a huge win for Posty and his new album regardless, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a guarantee that the rest of the set will be so well-received. “Help” is exceptional and Wallen is a cheat code, but the other, more ballad-y song that Post debuted at the ACM Awards last week I didn’t find so convincing on first listen. And while “Help” may end up being bigger than any single from Cowboy Carter, that album set a bar for artistic quality and coherence from this year’s country-crossover aspirants that won’t be easily neared, let alone cleared.

4. We’ve seen a lot of turnover at the top of the Hot 100 recently — five songs across the last six weeks. With its staggering opening numbers and rapidly expanding radio presence, do you think “I Had Some Help” will finally be the song to stabilize the top spot in more of a long-term sense? 

Kyle Denis: In a year like 2024, I’m going to say no. Maybe Kendrick Lamar and Drake reignite their beef, maybe a new musical war commences, maybe Billie Eilish’s “Lunch” grows even bigger, maybe Zach Bryan’s upcoming single really takes off, maybe Beyoncé drops Act III or maybe another song comes out of nowhere with monster streams à la Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby.” 

“I Had Some Help” definitely has the potential – and arguably the best chances – to stabilize the top spot, but I won’t put my money on it quite yet. Let’s see if it can at least match the three weeks of Future & Metro Boomin’s Lamar-assisted “Like That” first — or the four weeks of Jack Harlow’s “Lovin On Me.” 

Lyndsey Havens: Not really – and I sort of hope it doesn’t. As much as I love “Help,” I’ve been loving the welcoming attitude of the Hot 100’s top 10 lately and am excited to see it continue. And on the heels of a new album from Billie Eilish – and hey, there could even be more surprises from Taylor ahead – I think at the very least pop’s biggest stars will continue to shake up the chart. And at the same time, newcomers to the summit like Carpenter and Shaboozey got there because their respective hits – “Espresso” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” – are so undeniably and sickeningly catchy. Heading into the summer months, it’s surprise viral smashes like those that often seem to sustain.

Jason Lipshutz: In a vacuum, I’d say that “Help” has a great chance of spending multiple weeks at No. 1, especially as country radio kicks in and boosts its chart points… but it really is a VERY crowded time in the top 10. We have a trio of hits — Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — that haven’t reached No. 1 yet but very well could in the coming weeks, while Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” is still earning gargantuan streaming numbers and could return to the top spot at any time. Plus, Billie Eilish’s album is performing very well out of the gate! If I had to bet, I’d say “Help” notches a few more weeks at No. 1 in the coming months, but it’s not a lock like it may have been had it bowed at a different time.

Jessica Nicholson: Posty’s collaboration with Taylor Swift spent two weeks atop the Hot 100, and now he’s teamed with one of country music’s current biggest-selling artists. Plus, the song is catchy, with the kind of singalong vibe that seems perfect as a summer soundtrack and has solid radio engagement. So, it’s very likely this could be a multi-week chart-topper.

Andrew Unterberger: I feel silly saying this, because I’ve been wrong in predicting multiple other big songs this year ending up long-lasting No. 1s, when they each ultimately topped out at a few weeks at most. But here we go again: Given the lead “Help” already has at radio over much of its competition — after not even two full weeks! — and given how strongly it’s still streaming and selling, I just can’t see anything currently on the chart getting past it anytime soon without another major boost. Maybe Shaboozey gets J-Kwon for an unstoppably charming “Bar Song” remix in the next week and makes me look stupid (again), but just going on the evidence we currently have, I gotta play the percentages and say this thing is gonna be No. 1 for a good long time.

5. If you were looking to put together a dream year of collaborations with the biggest recording artists in music, knocking off team-ups with Beyoncé, Taylor Swift and now Morgan Wallen would be a pretty damn good start. If you were Post Malone essentially looking for the clean sweep, who would you get for your fourth superstar collaborator this year? 

Kyle Denis: I mean, he’s gotta pick a side between Kendrick and Drake. It’s only right!

Lyndsey Havens: If it’s a clean sweep we want, I’d say he and Ari should get in the studio stat. As she continues to promote her Eternal Sunshine album, a remix or bonus track featuring Posty could come as a pleasant chart-topping surprise; and for any naysayers, I doubt many could envision how he would sound alongside Beyoncé or Swift before those hits arrived, either. But if we’re less concerned with another No. 1, I’d suggest a collab with Kacey Musgraves or Maggie Rogers. Both artists are masters of the country-folk-pop seesaw and could be better suited to help usher Post into his new era.

Jason Lipshutz: Simple: team up with Kendrick Lamar for a post-Drake victory lap single. “I Hate You (An Angrier Song),” anyone? 

Jessica Nicholson: Zach Bryan or SZA would rank high on a list of potential superstar collaborators.

Andrew Unterberger: Let’s go historical and say Paul McCartney. Macca and Posty! Both the cuteness and the hooks would be overwhelming.

As Taylor Swift rules the Billboard Hot 100 for a second frame with her Post Malone collab “Fortnight” — and before an onslaught of tracks resulting from the culture-dominating Kendrick Lamar/Drake feud likely swarms the top tier of the chart next week — a trio of newer hitmakers move into the chart’s top five.

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This week’s Hot 100 (dated May 11) features a debut from Virginia singer-rapper Tommy Richman at No. 2 (“Million Dollar Baby”), along with a rapidly rising breakout smash from country singer-songwriter Shaboozey at No. 3 (“A Bar Song (Tipsy)”) and the biggest crossover hit yet for burgeoning pop star Sabrina Carpenter at No. 4 (“Espresso”). Along with enduring top 10 hits from newly minted hitmakers Benson Boone (“Beautiful Things,” No. 5) and Teddy Swims (“Lose Control”), this week marks the highest concentration of first-timers in the chart’s top 10 since June 2022.

Which one is most likely to claim the top spot in the weeks to come? And is it meaningful to be getting so many big hits by newer artists at once? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Despite being each artist’s first visit to the chart’s top 10, within a month of their Hot 100 debuts, each of Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby,” Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” finds itself in this week’s top five. Which of the three hits has been most impressive to you with its rapid rise?

Rania Aniftos: Shaboozey! Black artists are slowly but surely staking their claim in country music and country-adjacent genres, and it’s been long overdue. I’m so glad Shaboozey had his time to shine on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, and has since been able to amplify his own career. I’m impressed by his skyrocketed success and excited to see where he goes from here!

Kyle Denis: Definitely Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby.” You can track both Shaboozey’s (two Queen Bey collabs + each of previous singles was bigger than the last) and Sabrina’s (Eras Tour opener who has recently solidified herself as a formidable presence on top 40 radio) success pretty easily. Outside of some significant underground motion, Tommy Richman’s name didn’t even exist in the zeitgeist last month – now he has the most-streamed song in the country this week with his very first Hot 100 entry. 

Josh Glicksman: Shaboozey. Parlaying guest turns on a blockbuster album into solo chart success is a much more difficult task than he’s made it seem, and particularly so given that country music typically doesn’t have the immediate streaming power — save for a handful of marquee artists — as some of the other genres filling the top 10 of the Hot 100. Sure, the J-Kwon “Tipsy” interpolation gives “A Bar Song” a boost, but the latter is unquestionably a hit in its own right, avoiding the over-reliance on nostalgia that songs of a similar ilk have fallen victim to in the past year.

Jason Lipshutz: While Sabrina Carpenter has already enjoyed pop radio success prior to “Espresso” and Shaboozey’s profile grew significantly thanks to his multiple features on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” has seemingly come out of nowhere to thus far out-chart both of them. Yes, Brent Faiyaz has co-signed Richman and brought him on tour — but Faiyaz has yet to score a solo hit within the same stratosphere as “Million Dollar Baby,” which exploded on TikTok to such a degree that it debuted at No. 2 amidst stiff competition. We’ll see how durable of a hit “Million Dollar Baby” proves to be, but that start was breathtaking.

Andrew Unterberger: All three are undoubtedly impressive, but the real jaw-dropper to me here is Richman. To drop a new single at very possibly the most crowded moment for major new releases we’ve had so far this decade and not only make a major impression, but immediately zoom to the very head of the class — outside of the reigning valedictorian, anyway — is simply stunning for any artist, especially one with so little established chart history.

2. All three songs figure to be contenders for the top spot in the weeks to come. If you had to bet on one of them to eventually get there — or to be the first to get there, if you think multiple will — which would you opt for?

Rania Aniftos: I have to say “Espresso,” because I know I’m not the only one who can’t get that damn “I’m working late/ ‘Cause I’m a singerrrrrrr” line out of their head. It’s such a catchy song and it’s everywhere! 

Kyle Denis: Given that just three 2024 releases have spent more than a single week atop the Hot 100, I’m willing to wager that all three songs will get there – but they likely won’t enjoy very long stays at the pole position. Who’s getting there first? Probably “Million Dollar Baby,” it’s outpacing the other two songs on most major U.S. streaming platforms – and it feels like that kind of hit that won’t necessarily need radio to carry it. 

Josh Glicksman: “Espresso.” Its nu-disco production is tailor-made for sunny days and open windows and will garner endless airplay at pop radio. I expect both “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Million Dollar Baby” to hang around for extended stays as well — and could very well see the former getting to No. 1 as well at some point — but it’s hard to bet against the bona fide pop hit, especially when it’s such an instantly obvious song of the summer contender. Did I already mention how much you’re going to hear it on the radio?

Jason Lipshutz: “Espresso,” since it sounds like one of the sturdiest pop hits of the year, it’s already a top 5 hit, and its radio run hasn’t even kicked off in earnest yet. Songs like “Nonsense” and “Feather” proved Sabrina Carpenter’s top 40 appeal, and “Espresso” is already a bigger hit than both of those previous singles; meanwhile, Carpenter is a more of a prominent star than she’s ever been, and she’s poured us a three-minute shot of bliss in time for summer. The top of the Hot 100 is crowded right now, but I think that “Espresso” will spend multiple weeks at No. 1 in the June/July range.

Andrew Unterberger: I would say “Million Dollar Baby,” since its initial velocity has been so impressive and it’s already so close to the top spot. But the fact of the matter is that it’s likely going to get stuck behind an onslaught of Kendrick Lamar for at least the next week or two, after which another new song (maybe something from the new Billie Eilish album due friday after next?) very well may have lapped it momentum-wise. So I’ll bet on the long game with “Espresso,” as the song’s warm-weather vibes and Carpenter’s recently established history on the airwaves all but guarantees it ruling radio all summer — meaning it’ll always be in range of the Hot 100’s top spot, and able to seize it with a new remix or video or other viral moment (or if we ever just get another slow chart week again).

3. Beyond these already-minted hits, which of the artists behind them (between Richman, Shaboozey and Carpenter) do you expect to make the biggest/most extended chart impact in the years to come?

Rania Aniftos: Again, I’m going to give this one to Sabrina. She’s been working hard at her career since she was a child on the Disney Channel and I’m surprised it’s taken her this long to pop off. She has an excellent discography and Emails I Can’t Send is a completely underrated pop album. I’m expecting “Espresso” to lead music lovers to finally give Sabrina the success she deserves.

Kyle Denis: My money’s on Sabrina given she already has bigger chart hits than both Shaboozey and Richman. Couple that with the fact that she’s truly made the best of the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that is opening for what will likely go down as the biggest tour of all time, Sabrina will be around for a minute. At the very least, she’ll become a true pop radio staple. Shaboozey’s path is obviously a bit different as he’s navigating the Nashville machine as a Black man, and Richman will probably collect one or two smaller hits before comfortably reassuming his cult hero status. 

Josh Glicksman: I’ll take Sabrina Carpenter here. She’s been bubbling just under the surface of A-list pop star for what feels like years now (it’s not too late to give “Sue Me” the full moment that it has always deserved!) and now that she’s collecting a handful of Hot 100 entries, I expect that to quickly grow into the size of an overdue grocery shopping list before long.

Jason Lipshutz: Carpenter, whose 2022 album Emails I Can’t Send contained a ton of promise, and everything she’s done since then has fulfilled that promise. “Espresso” represents a breakthrough hit, but Carpenter contains the personality and pop know-how of a superstar — and she’s becoming one now, after years of build-up and gathering momentum. Shaboozey and Richman are both on upward trajectories, but Carpenter has a higher ceiling, and should be a chart force for a long time.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s Carpenter, simply because this moment is the culmination of a good half-decade — arguably even longer — of work she’s put in building her audience and pop cred, and now officially joining the ranks of the A-listers. But honestly, I’m buying stock in all three of these artists. I’d be pretty surprised if this was the last we heard from any of them on the Hot 100.

4. While these are the three biggest breakout hits currently challenging Taylor Swift’s “Fortnight” for the chart’s top spot, they’re hardly the only new singles currently making waves on the chart. Who that’s a little lower down on the listing could you see elbowing your way into the top tier before long?

Rania Aniftos: I feel like Chappell Roan is on a similar wavelength with the artist we’ve been discussing today. “Good Luck, Babe!” is a great track and Chappell is a great artist. I would love to see a snippet from that song go viral and project the track into the top 10. 

Kyle Denis: I’m definitely keeping an eye on Lay Bankz’s “Tell Ur Girlfriend” (No. 58), GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion’s “Wanna Be” (No. 34, this week) and Bryson Tiller’s “Ciao,” which does not currently rank on the Hot 100. 

Josh Glicksman: Aside from the obvious picks in the Kendrick Lamar-Drake rap battle, Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” and Dasha’s “Austin” both feel like they have plenty of runway left and may jetset well into the summer. The former act is coming into a superstar moment of sorts of her own, while the latter hit continues to build on a global scale. Both currently sit in the 40s, and as the Taylor Swift takeover clears out a bit in the coming week, there should be ample room to grow.

Jason Lipshutz: Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” hasn’t entered the top 40 yet, but the single sounds like a smart, charismatic commercial breakthrough for an artist with a dedicated fan base that’s been growing exponentially over the past few months. I’d expect it to keep climbing in the coming weeks based on its promising streaming returns, and depending on radio’s reaction, challenge for the top 20 (at least) soon enough.

Andrew Unterberger: All signs are clearly pointing to Chappell Roan being next up — though I’m still hoping Nashville stops messing around and finally embraces Dasha’s viral “Austin” as the future of pop-leaning country, which it almost certainly is and should be.

5. Along with Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” and Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control,” first-timer artists in the top 10 take up five of the top six spots this week. Do you think it’s meaningful that there has been such a presence for breakout artists in the chart’s top tier this year, or is it just a fluke of timing?

Rania Aniftos: While my gut is telling me it’s a fluke while we wait for the slew of major artist releases this year, I really hope it’s not. It’s been so refreshing seeing new names on the Hot 100, and I want to see more! 

Kyle Denis: I think we’re still in a weird place where pop culture is trying to move forward, but our near-constant nostalgia loop is keeping us beholden to stars of yesteryear. Of course, some of those stars genuinely are still cranking out releases that do meaningfully shift the culture: We’ve gotten back-to-back blockbuster albums from Beyoncé, Ye & Ty Dolla $ign, Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, and Future & Metro Boomin (twice!) Yet tracks from those albums — barring most of their lead singles — aren’t the ones setting up shop in the Hot 100’s upper regions this year. 

Josh Glicksman: If anything, it’s especially meaningful given the deluge of superstar releases so far in 2024. It could be that there have been so many blockbuster albums that the A-listers are canceling one another’s opportunities for extended chart runs a bit, but regardless, the hits from breakout artists this year are well beyond the point of calling it a fluke.

Jason Lipshutz: The timing is a little fluky — in recent weeks, veteran stars like Beyoncé, Future & Metro Boomin, Ariana Grande and Jack Harlow also occupied the top 10 — but this happy upswing in newcomers to the top 10 also underscores a general hunger for unfamiliar voices in heavy rotation after a run of high-profile albums. The release calendar has been packed so far in 2024, but thanks to a mix of TikTok virality, new pop trends like the country-folk revival, and undeniable singles from non-superstars, the top of the Hot 100 looks revitalized. We’re in for a fun-as-hell summer slate, as big projects and out-of-nowhere hits balance each other out on the Hot 100.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s simple: Popular music is up right now. Pretty much all genres, from pop to rap to country to rock, are hitting right now — while also intertwining inextricably, of course — and there’s plenty of room for exciting new releases from both the ruling class of hitmakers and an entirely new wave. It’s a fun time to be a top 40 fan, which is not something we’ve often said this decade around this time of the year.

In a year where the big stars of the past decade have been coming out early to lay claim to the top spot of the Billboard Hot 100 — Beyoncé, Ariana Grande, Future, Metro Boomin and Kendrick Lamar, the entire Vultures crew — one 2010s hitmaker few saw coming as a top-spot threat scores his first-ever No. 1 on the chart this week.

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Hozier, whose lone single to approach the top of the Hot 100 came in 2014 with the No. 2-peaking megaballad “Take Me to Church,” reaches No. 1 this week with TikTok-teased new single “Too Sweet” in its fourth week on the chart. The Irish singer-songwriter had maintained a sizable fanbase since the 2014 smash, but went the next eight years without reaching the Hot 100, until scoring a handful of entries in the lower stretches and one top 40 hit (via an appearance on the remix to Noah Kahan’s “Northern Attitude”) last year.

How did Hozier make his way not only back to the top 10, but all the way to the top spot? And what does this mean for his career going forward? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. So straight off the top — if you were told at the beginning of 2024 that Hozier would have his first No. 1 hit by April, how surprised would you be, on a scale from 1 to 10?

Katie Atkinson: 10! Of course, watching the Hot 100 in the months since has definitely made it much less surprising, because we’ve seen TeddySwims score his first No. 1, we’ve seen Benson Boone climb to No. 2, and we’ve seen Noah Kahan peak in the top 10, so Hozier topping the chart is completely in line with all that. But knowing what we knew on Jan. 1, it had been 10 years since he broke through with “Take Me to Church” and he was still hanging around the Hot 100, but the closest he’d returned to his No. 2 peak with “Church” was to the top 40 last year with Kahan (more on that below). Clearly, his chart-topping moves were already in the works.

Stephen Daw: 10, easy. I loved Unreal Unearth and have been a big fan of Hozier’s since his self-titled debut LP in 2013 — but I genuinely thought “Take Me to Church” would be his chart ceiling. Even when “Too Sweet” began blowing up online, I figured, at best, it would float around the top 40 for a few months before dying back down. But I am delightfully shocked to see audiences really embrace Hozier again, especially on a song as undeniably good as “Too Sweet.” 

Kyle Denis: About a 7. I had a feeling that whatever music Hozier came out with post-Unreal Unearth would do fairly well. That album did a lot to rejuvenate casual interest him beyond being pigeon-holed as the “Take Me to Chruch” guy. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 7. Sure, Hozier hasn’t been churning out top 10 hits over the past few years, but he has accrued quite a following during that time — there’s a reason he was able to schedule an arena and amphitheater tour for later this year, before “Too Sweet” was even released. Plus, country- and folk-adjacent pop-rock has certainly invaded the upper reaches of the Hot 100 over the past six months, with artists like Noah Kahan, Zach Bryan, Teddy Swims and Benson Boone all scoring smashes with their respective versions of the guitar-based renaissance. So, yes, still surprising to see a Hozier single atop the Hot 100, but certainly far from jaw-dropping.

Andrew Unterberger: A 9 — and it would’ve been a 10 at the beginning of 2023, but after Hozier’s impressive last year and popular music generally tilting in the direction of his arena-sized alt-folk, a comeback moment of some kind certainly seemed like it could’ve been on the horizon. But a No. 1 hit, at this extremely competitive moment in Hot 100 history? No, I cannot pretend that I saw that coming in any way.

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2. Hozier had not even reached the Hot 100 again for eight years following his 2014 smash “Take Me to Church,” then returned to the Hot 100 multiple times in the past year, though he had not gotten higher than No. 37 as a guest on Noah Kahan’s remixed “Northern Attitude.” Is him finally reaching No. 1 this year more of a function of overall timing or about “Too Sweet” in particular, in your opinion?

Katie Atkinson: I think timing is a piece of it, but this song is also undeniably great, so I’m going to give it to “Too Sweet.” The song has great lyrics, and you can discover a new cute phrase with every listen, and the way he lilts that chorus seems to put his not-quite-right partner’s sweetness into song. The combo of its easy-listening melody paired with lyrics we can all probably relate to makes for a hit.

Stephen Daw: It’s definitely more about “Too Sweet” itself, but the timing certainly doesn’t hurt. With the Noah Kahanaissance in full swing, contemporary folk music is having its biggest moment since the “stomp clap hey” days of the early 2010s, which is a huge opportunity for artists like Hozier who thrived in that aforementioned era. It’s abundantly clear that “Too Sweet” came in the perfect timeframe, but it’s worth noting that Hozier put out an entire album of folk songs in the middle of this sea change last year, and only “Eat Your Young” managed to crack into the lower half of the Hot 100 (debuting at No. 67 and then immediately falling off the chart two weeks later). Clearly, “Too Sweet” has that X factor that keeps people listening. 

Kyle Denis: The success of “Too Sweet,” in particular, has more to do with where the sound of Top 40 is right now than anything else. Analog instrumentation with an emphasis on guitars and big, soaring vocals are in right now (see: Teddy Swims, Benson Boone, Michael Marcagi, Kahan) and Hozier happened to drop an absolute banger at just the right time. Between his incredibly successful Unreal Unearth tour and his countless appearances at festivals across the world, Hozier has enraptured a whole new audience whose ears have been primed for the pop-rock swagger of “Too Sweet” by the other guitar-centric tunes that have dominated the upper regions of the Hot 100 this year. 

Jason Lipshutz: A combination of both. “Too Sweet” is pretty undeniable as a crossover hit, a smoky groove that relies on the deep timbre of Hozier’s voice to provide gravitas to its creeping hooks. Pop music trends helped push “Too Sweet” higher on the Hot 100 than it might have gone in other years, when it was darn near impossible to imagine a straight-up rock song hitting No. 1. Yet for Hozier, this single was the right one to deliver a new level of chart success, and hit the market at the right time.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s gotta be more about timing, because I am just flummoxed as to why this song of all songs is the one to take Hozier to the penthouse. Not that it’s bad, just that it doesn’t feel in any way exceptional among Hozier’s last decade of releases — if you told me it was originally a deep cut I’d forgotten about from 2019’s Wasteland, Baby! I would have zero trouble believing you. People evidently hear more there than I do to be streaming it in the massive numbers that they are, but I still have to think that it’s more effect than cause as relates to the larger Hozier revival.

3. Do you think the success of “Too Sweet” re-establishes Hozier as a true A-list star in 2024, or is it more a one-time deal for the singer-songwriter that’s unlikely to lead to many future successes beyond his pre-established cult fandom?

Katie Atkinson: I think this definitely re-establishes Hozier’s place in music. It’s nice that this trend of growly-voiced singer/songwriters (as established in this very column back in late January) has not only created new stars, but has also given rise to artists who have been doing this for a decade. At this moment, AC and pop radio is more primed to play Hozier music than ever before, and he’s seized that moment.

Stephen Daw: I wouldn’t go as far as saying “A-list,” but I think “Too Sweet” will definitely net Hozier a lot of cultural capital that will cement his place as one of the most sought-after voices in the folk-pop space. That’s in large part because of the cult fandom that has helped spread this song across apps like TikTok for the last few months — with an established fanbase already built in, it only feels that much more natural for newcomers to join in and strengthen that core, which leads to a wider base, which leads to more recruiting, so on and so forth. Watch this space, because “Too Sweet” is just the beginning of Hozier’s mainstream return. 

Kyle Denis: I don’t know if Hozier was ever truly A-list, and I don’t think “Too Sweet” puts him there either. Nonetheless, it’s a beautiful culmination of a truly underrated two years for him. He packed out arenas night after night on Unreal Unearth tour and the accompanying album had a lot of grassroots love, including two chart-toppers at AAA radio. I think, at best, “Too Sweet” will help increase the size of his cult fandom and rope more fans into the sprawling lore behind some of his most beloved songs and lyrics. That should be enough for him to continue getting major hits in his home formats while providing a cushion for a mainstream smash whenever the pop music pendulum swings in the direction of his sound. 

Jason Lipshutz: My guess is that Hozier continues in the same lane he’s occupied for years, with a slighter brighter light moving forward. Maybe he hadn’t matched the single-song success of “Take Me to Church” prior to “Too Sweet,” yet all three of his studio albums scored top 3 debuts on the Billboard 200, and he’s been playing to sizable crowds for a decade now. “Too Sweet” is unlikely to yield a slew of follow-up chart hits, but Hozier was not an obscure artist prior to this No. 1 hit; the audiences streaming his songs and buying his tickets will grow because of “Too Sweet,” regardless of how his next singles perform. 

Andrew Unterberger: I think he’s there, to be honest — probably even moreso than he was in 2014. It’s one thing for radio and pop culture ubiquity to elevate your big hit to smash status (as happened with “Church”), but when it’s simply some good TikTok promotion and online buzz that lifts your song above hot new releases from many of the biggest superstars of the past 15 years, that usually means you’re pretty golden for some time to come. Hozier might not top the Hot 100 again, but I’d be a little surprised at this point if he didn’t become a regular fixture on the chart for at least the next few years.

4. If you had to look back to the early-mid 2010s for another hitmaking artist from the alt and/or folk spheres who could be due for a big 2020s comeback moment like this, who would you point to?

Katie Atkinson: The first thing that came to mind was The Lumineers, who peaked at No. 3 on the Hot 100 back in 2012 with “Ho Hey.” They’ve stayed active in music since then but haven’t climbed back to those heights. They should be looking for a Noah Kahan feature right about now.

Stephen Daw: As much as I desperately want to see Gotye return to his solo career and score another gargantuan hit like “Somebody That I Used to Know,” the chances of that happening seem infinitesimally small. So, instead, I’ll go with Florence + The Machine — the band certainly hasn’t gone anywhere since the peak of their success in 2010 and 2011, charting three top 10 albums in the intervening years. I could easily see Florence Welch and company crafting a folksy, funky anthem that takes off on TikTok and occupies a similar space to “Too Sweet” some time in the next few months. 

Kyle Denis: Gotye or George Ezra. If we stretch to the back half of the 2000s, I’ll throw in Colbie Caillat and Kings of Leon too. 

Jason Lipshutz: If a new Gotye album exists at the end of the earth, to be discovered only by the bravest and most ambitious xylophone-music enthusiast, then it looks like I am going on an expedition. After “Somebody That I Used To Know” took over the Hot 100 and Making Mirrors turned into one of the most underrated pop full-lengths of the 2010s, we are still waiting for a follow-up from Wally de Backer. And while I am a diehard fan rooting for a comeback, I do think that a Gotye return would generate considerable interest from curious pop fans! Call up Kimbra, grab the buckets of face paint, and let’s go.

Andrew Unterberger: “Riptide” singer-songwriter Vance Joy — who, like Hozier, never really went away after his one big U.S. crossover hit — feels no more than a big-ticket remix away from getting back on the Hot 100.

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5. “Take Me to Church”: more timeless classic or dated mid-’10s relic?

Katie Atkinson: Wait, is anyone going to say relic? This song is still so good! I’m definitely going timeless classic and welcoming Andrew Hozier-Byrne back with open arms into the 2020s.

Stephen Daw: I can hear “Take Me to Church” today and feel it hit just as hard as it did a decade ago — this one is timeless classic, for sure. 

Kyle Denis: Timeless classic. This ain’t “Party Rock Anthem!” 

Jason Lipshutz: I lean towards “mid-‘10s relic” — not as a knock on the song, but because, especially in lieu of “Too Sweet” topping the Hot 100, it sure seems like Hozier has transcended what once was his defining hit and fashioned out a formidable career! “Take Me to Church” enjoyed its moment of ubiquity, but its creator has moved on to bigger and better. 

Andrew Unterberger: It’s certainly got claims to being both — it’s hard to hear the song without being reminded of the dozens of trailers and pop culture moments it soundtracked in the mid-’10s, not to mention the moments of our own lives. But I lean a little more towards timeless classic, because even back in 2014 it felt elevated from the rest of what was happening on the charts, and there’s still no other song in 21st century pop music that occupies its exact space.

It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for J. Cole.
He was roped into the most buzzed-about beef in recent rap history last month when fellow superstar Kendrick Lamar sent apparent shots at him and collaborator Drake in his own Billboard Hot 100-topping Future and Metro Boomin teamup, “Like That.” Two Fridays ago (Apr. 5), he responded with his new mixtape Might Delete Later and its climactic answer diss, “7 Minute Drill” — before publicly backing off the rejoinder at his own Dreamville Festival the following Sunday, explaining that feuding with Lamar didn’t sit right with him, and announcing his intent to remove the response cut from streaming.

The backlash from the internet and the larger hip-hop community was swift, with fans first dismissing “Drill” as lukewarm and uncommitted, and then largely mocking Cole for bowing out of the beef rather than standing behind his response. Nonetheless, Might Delete Later debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with 115,000 units — down from Cole’s usual first-week totals for new albums, but still a strong showing by most other artists’ standards, particularly for a mixtape — while “Drill” bows at No. 6 on the Hot 100, though Cole made good on his promise to take the song off streaming on Friday (Apr. 12), following the end of its first full tracking week.

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What should we take away from Cole’s Might Delete Later showing? And will the sour taste this era has left in many rap fans’ mouths end up following Cole to his long-anticipated The Fall Off release? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

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1. J. Cole debuts at No. 2 this week with 115,000 units for Might Delete Later. On a scale of 1-10, if you’re J. Cole, how satisfied are you with that first-week performance?

Kyle Denis: If I’m J. Cole and I really am orchestrating all of this as an elaborate roll out for The Fall Off, 10. If I’m J. Cole and this has nothing to do with The Fall Off at all, probably around a 6. A six-figure opening week units total in 2024 is never anything to scoff at, but after six consecutive studio albums hitting No. 1 and debuting with over 200,000 units, these numbers certainly leave more to be desired. Of course, Beyoncé is Beyoncé, but the fact that Cowboy Carter’s second week pulled ahead of Delete’s first — despite the latter initially leading predictions – speaks to how quickly consumers decided Cole’s latest offering wasn’t worth their time. 

Angel Diaz: If I’m Cole, I’ll be at a 10. The second spot on the 200 isn’t too shabby for a mixtape that was overshadowed by an unfortunate apology amid one of the more intriguing rap feuds in recent memory. 

Carl Lamarre: A 5. If I were Cole, half of me would be proud that I cracked six figures with little to no promotion. Based on my surprise drop, I can’t be upset if I lost to Beyonce. The other half is sick because the rap community is bullying me over that one record.

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Might Delete Later was a surprise release arriving in an absolutely stacked portion of the release calendar, amidst a hip-hop superstar civil war outshining a lot of the actual music, and headlined by a diss track that was regretted and removed from streaming services… and it still did six figures in its first week. This project didn’t receive a traditional rollout and has been defined more by where it fits into a Larger Beef Narrative than Cole’s greater discography, so its final total should be a sign that he’s still a commercial force.

Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 4. Yes, it’s just a mixtape, surprise release, whatever: If hip-hop fans were genuinely excited about this release (and “Drill” in particular) it would’ve still done big business. Cole coming in second for a full-length project, with well under half of the first-week units for 2021’s The Off Season — with all the eyes and ears of the hip-hop world set upon him — is a disappointment by his standards, straight up.

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2. Cole seems to have hedged expectations with just about everything regarding this set, from calling it a mixtape to repeatedly referencing it as the prelude to his upcoming The Fall Off project to titling it something non-committal to *actually deleting* one of its tracks from streaming this weekend. Given all of this, do you think it’s still fair to judge it as a proper J. Cole body of work, or do you kinda give it an asterisk there? 

Kyle Denis: I think all those caveats warrant an asterisk. Nonetheless, Delete is still an 11-track set released under the J. Cole moniker – it’s undoubtedly a body of work, just far from his best. 

Angel Diaz: I’m going to take it for what it is: a mixtape, a body of work, whatever you want to call it these days. Even if he decides to delete the entire tape eventually, the Internet is forever, and it’ll be floating around somewhere. He should throw it up on Dat Piff and really bring the feeling back. 

Carl Lamarre: It’s a body of work in which he was demonstrative about his rap standing and had no shame talking s–t. If you subtract the Dipset-flip for “Ready 24,” this was all original music with some creative touches. Even if it wasn’t up to Cole’s standards, Might Delete Later was packaged like an ordinary rap album. 

Jason Lipshutz: An asterisk, for sure, which makes its No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200 so impressive. If this is the prelude to a major new Cole project, based on its 115,000 unit start, I’d expect The Fall Off to score one of the biggest debuts of the year. And yes, if you’re literally deleting songs from a project once it’s released, chances are you don’t want that project to function as a defining work.

Andrew Unterberger: There’s a bit of an asterisk, sure, but not one nearly as big or as definitive as Cole’s hoping for.

3. “7 Minute Drill” debuts at No. 6 this week, and will most likely only get the one week in the top 10 after Cole removed it from streaming services on Friday. Do you think the lone week in the top 10 — particularly as “Like That” enjoys its third week at No. 1 — is more than the song deserves, less, or about right? 

Kyle Denis: Instinctively, I want to say it deserves less because of how limp of a response it is. But part of me thinks this is exactly what “7 Minute Drill” deserves. A single week in the top 10 is emblematic of the initial curiosity the song courted, and plummeting from that region as quickly as it got there is the perfect parallel to the lukewarm reception the song received once those first listens were complete. 

Angel Diaz: I’m not sure what’s going on with this track because it still shows up in my Apple Music downloads on my phone but isn’t available on Spotify or the desktop version of Apple Music. I think it makes sense that it would creep into the top 10 when you factor in all the drama surrounding it. Cole must really be apologetic because he’s leaving some money on the table, so I guess it’s about right. 

Carl Lamarre: Out of sheer anticipation, this is right where it should be. Cole isn’t a battle rapper — as proven by his swift exit from the ongoing rap civil war — but because of his high-level MC status, grit, and charisma, there was hope that Cole would at least try to even the score against Kendrick. Sure, scrubbing the record from streaming cleanses your spiritual energy — and waiting as long as he did to do it ensures it will still be forever deemed a top 10 record — but we all know the chatter that’s going on in hip-hop circles about that song and apology.

Jason Lipshutz: Sounds about right to me. Even if Cole hadn’t hastily removed “7 Minute Drill” from streaming services, I’d expect the track to attain an explosive chart debut and quick drop-off, since most listeners stopped by to hear the Kendrick disses without absorbing the actual song. While “Like That” stands on its own as a scorching-hot single surrounding Kendrick Lamar’s guest spot, “7 Minute Drill” sounds haphazardly constructed as a platform for a lukewarm takedown. It was always going to pique curiosities upon its release, and never going to last after that.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s about right. I was more positive on “Drill” that most — I feel it got some decent digs in there, and to be honest, I respect that he kept his attacks kinda practical and not that hyperbolic. But is it as good a song as “Like That”? Of course not. Even without the rapper Deleting Later, it probably would’ve fallen off the Hot 100 in a few weeks once the curiosity listens died down, and almost certainly would’ve spent just the one week in its top tier. That’s fine.

4. While “Drill” and its subsequent Cole about-face will likely make up the majority of the Might Delete Later legacy, is there anything elsewhere on the mixtape that you think is particularly notable/memorable/interesting for this Cole period? 

Kyle Denis: None of the music on Delete is interesting or impressive enough to rise out of the shadow of Cole’s decisions during this period – and that’s perfectly okay. I think his exit from the “Big Three” battle will easily stand as the most notable component of the Delete era for better and for worse. We’ll definitely look back on this entire back-and-forth – and Cole’s role and performance, in particular – as a key inflection point for the evolution of mainstream rap beef post-Hip-Hop 50. 

If anything, most of the mixtape’s collaborations were welcome, but unnecessary, reminders of how great the chemistry is between Dreamville artists.

Angel Diaz: J. Cole blacked on a couple of these records, man, that’s what makes his apology so frustrating and I’m not even the biggest Cole fan. “Huntin’ Wabbitz,” going bar-for-bar with Killa on “Ready ‘24,” and getting his lyrical miracle on with battle rap veteran Daylyt and TDE’s Ab Soul on “Pi” show that he belongs in the Big 3 conversation. For a surprise mixtape, Might Delete Later is a solid offering from a solid rapper.  

Carl Lamarre: I can’t lie; the erasure of “Drill” and his Dreamville Fest apology killed my listening experience post-release. Ironically, I wasn’t even a fan of “Drill” and thought “Trae The Truth in Ibiza” could have served as the project’s ideal send-off. But after he dismissed “Drill,” I tried listening again, and it hurt me because Cole spent the tape boasting about his lyrical prowess — most notably on “Ready 24.” I can’t even play that record back, because some of Cole’s first words are: “Ain’t no n—a better than me in this f–kin’ planet, I swear to God.” The about-face at Dreamville Fest killed any positive motion I had for his project, and I’m a devout fan.

Jason Lipshutz: The Central Cee team-up on “H.Y.B.” is intriguing, and my ’00s hip-hop-loving heart was overjoyed to hear both Cam’ron (!) and Young Duo (!!!) on this project. But the most interesting moment on Might Delete Later was “7 Minute Drill,” as well as how Cole handled the song following its release. We’ll see how calling an audible on the diss track affects his artistic perspective moving forward, but the move will define Might Delete Later, even though the song itself no longer exists on the project.

Andrew Unterberger: The collabs are good! I’ve never heard Cole sounding this versatile, meeting collaborators as wide-ranging as Cam’Ron, Central Cee and Ab-Soul mostly on their home terrain, without ever sounding like he’s stretching too far outside his own lane. I truly cannot remember the last time I’ve advocated for a rapper to take on MORE name guests on their album, but for the Patron Saint of Platinum With No Features, maybe the switch-up could help keep things a little fresh for him on The Fall Off.

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5. Cole has taken a near-unanimous L in general debate and on social media for “7 Minute Drill” and his subsequent Dreamville apology. Do you think it will actually affect perception and/or reception for Cole on future projects, or will this all become yesterday’s news for him and his fanbase pretty quickly? 

Kyle Denis: Both. And that’s the exact reason why this “beef” will have no verifiable victor. Cole’s fans already decided that they were rocking with him through thick and thin back in 2011, if not earlier. They survived the Noname battle and other controversies; this is not going to substantially shift the mindset of his fanbase. When it comes to those outside of Cole World, however, Cole’s exit and apology have blown up the once-solidified “Big Three” of the blog era. Like Drake and Lamar, reception for Cole’s projects have always had a built-in sheen because of how he’s revered in hip-hop circles. Based on the varied reception to his “Red Leather” verse, that’s already started to change a little bit. Ultimately, I think Cole will be just fine – but he should probably prepare himself for The Fall Off to be his most meticulously analyzed and critiqued album yet.  

Angel Diaz: I think this has already negatively affected his career. Fans will eventually forgive and forget, but for now he’s basically Switzerland as a band of American rappers clique up to take down the behemoth in the North. He had to stand 10 toes down after this song dropped because, like I said earlier, the Internet is forever. The disses weren’t even that personal and he’s rapped too many slick lines about being the best for too many years. His biggest mistake was dedicating a track to Kendrick, when Dot just sent a couple subs his way, while taking direct aim at Drake.

I understand his sentiments, but I wonder if he feels like he’s missing out on the history being made right now. The Fall Off most definitely needs to be a unanimous classic or at least close to it for borderline fans such as myself to take him seriously again. He put himself in a hole for absolutely no reason. I don’t think his career is over, but the convo about him being the best rapper in the game is over for now. 

Jason Lipshutz: Depending on how this genre-encompassing diss parade plays out, Cole releasing “7 Minute Drill,” pulling a “whoopsie” and bowing out of the contest altogether… might have been the best thing for him. For better or worse, we now know where he stands on this matter, and now he can view the fracas from afar while moving on to his next projects. Cole already released The Sideline Story more than a decade ago, and maybe it’s best that that’s where he’ll be during this free-for-all.

Andrew Unterberger: I think the folks who are calling Cole “finished” are on an altogether different planet, but could it have a residual long-term effect? Not impossible, but considering all the “rap is a competitive sport” takes that have surrounded hip-hop discourse lately, folks would do well to remember that in rap, as in pro sports, fans have short memories. Joel Embiid had an embarrassing playoff showing last year against the Celtics, but if he leads the Sixers past Boston and to the finals this year, most people will forget about 2023 real quick. Same thing with Cole — at least, if his next album is as good as he’s hyping it to be.

For the second time in three weeks, a new standard has been set for single-week units moved in 2024. Two weeks after Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine debuted with a year-best 227,000 units, according to Luminate, Future and Metro Boomin have raised the bar to 251,000 with their first full-length collaborative album We Don’t Trust You.

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While the album easily tops the Billboard 200 with its impressive first-week mark — set almost entirely through streams, with the album’s 17 tracks racking up a combined 324.31 official on-demand U.S. streams in its debut frame — its explosive Kendrick Lamar team-up “Like That” bows atop the Billboard Hot 100, with four other songs from the project also entering the chart’s top 10. The song debuts with 59.6 million streams, the top mark for 2024 so far, with interest in it largely driven by Lamar’s fiery verse, which takes implied shots at fellow rap stars J. Cole and Drake.

What does the success of “Like That” and We Don’t Trust You tell us about hip-hop in 2024? And can the duo maintain their momentum through a second full-length project this year? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Future and Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You post’s the year’s best first-week tally this week with its 251,000 units moved, good for an easy No. 1 debut. Is this performance particularly meaningful to either Future’s or Metro’s careers, do you think, or is it mostly just par for the course for two of the most consistently successful figures of hip-hop’s last decade?

Jason Lipshutz: On paper, the quarter-million debut of We Don’t Trust You may seem like part for the course for two of hip-hop’s most bankable stars — but considering all of the chatter around “Like That,” the multiple other songs launched into the top 10 of the Hot 100, the still-mighty streaming performance of the album 10 days after its debut and the potential of an imminent sequel, Future and Metro Boomin have kicked off the spring in dominant fashion, and their album has become the biggest story in rap. Metro was already ascending as a front-line star thanks to Heroes & Villains and Future is no stranger to the top of the charts, but this project has functioned as a commanding moment in both of their respective careers, and feels particularly meaningful for their legacies. 

Heran Mamo: The success of We Don’t Trust You reinforces Future and Metro’s consistency as chart-topping hitmakers, but the album’s performance is a little more meaningful to Future’s career. We Don’t Trust You marks his ninth No. 1 album, a feat he’s accomplished in 2015 (twice), 2016, 2017 (twice), 2019, 2020, 2022 and now 2024. This not only speaks to Future’s consistency, but also his longevity in the rap game and validates his continued ascent into rarefied air.  

If the second Future x Metro album that’s dropping in two weeks also goes No. 1, that means he will not only have earned his 10th Billboard 200 No. 1 album, but that he will have also notched two No. 1 projects in the same year in three different years: 2015 (What a Time to Be Alive and DS2), 2017 (Future and Hndrxx) and 2024. He’d tie Elvis Presley and Eminem for the eighth-most No. 1 albums and be in fourth place among rappers, after Jay-Z (14), Drake (13) and Ye (11). 

Michael Saponara: I’d lean Metro for sure. He made a name for himself carving out hits behind-the-scenes as a beat maestro, but now he’s elevated his brand to another level as a commercial superstar being billed as the lead artist on tracks/albums. Between the success of the Grammy-nominated Heroes & Villains and the visibility gained from helming the Spider-Verse soundtrack, Young Metro has shown versatility and can really take this winning streak in any direction he wants. With another bona fide solo project, Metro could overtake the lane DJ Khaled has occupied for the last 15 years or so if he pleases. It doesn’t sound like the train’s going to slow down either as MB promised at least three albums this year.

Damien Scott: Future and Metro’s We Don’t Trust You going No. 1 was expected. They are two of the biggest artists in rap right now, and this was one of the most anticipated albums of the past few years. Future and Metro are coming off the biggest solo projects of their careers with I Never Liked You and Heroes & Villains, respectfully. And, despite having worked together on numerous songs over the years, the two have never released an official joint project. (Sure, Metro produced the bulk of What a Time to Be Alive, but that vision was more Drake and Future’s own.) So, when Metro told Ebro the reason he didn’t have any songs on I Never Liked You was because he was saving tracks for a different Future project, everyone’s been amped to see what the two longtime collaborators cooked up together.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know that it’s necessarily that huge a breakthrough for either artist at this point in their respective careers, but it does show that Metro Boomin is an A-lister on par with all but maybe a handful of MCs in hip-hop right now. Lest we forget, Future’s full-length team-ups haven’t always gone so great: What a Time to Be Alive (with Drake) was something of a classic, sure, but when was the last time you listened to WRLD on Drugs (with Juice WRLD) or Pluto x Baby Pluto (with Lil Uzi Vert)? But there was little doubt that Future and Metro would make collaborative magic together — and indeed, passed even the 222,000 units that Future moved in the debut frame for his most recent solo effort, 2022’s I Never Liked You.

2. “Like That” also bows at No. 1 on the Hot 100 with the year’s best single-week streaming tally. Do you see the degree of its success as being mostly attributable to the firestorm surrounding Kendrick Lamar’s seeming callout of fellow superstars J. Cole and Drake? If Lamar’s verse had been similarly inspired but with less direct targeting, do you think the song still debuts at No. 1?

Jason Lipshutz: In the first few days of its release, I would have mostly chalked up its enormous streaming success to the curiosity factor around Kendrick’s verse… but now that the dust has settled a bit, “Like That” has established itself as a sledgehammer of a single, even in its first half before K. Dot arrives. The “Everlasting Bass” lift, the zonked-out Future hook and the “Eazy-Duz-It” schoolyard sing-along all serve as prelude to its guest star’s fury; even without the thinly veiled shots, everything about the song hums along effectively. “Like That” would have fallen out of rotation if it was solely based around some inflammatory lines, but Future and Metro Boomin engineered a standout track around the disses.

Heran Mamo: Dot’s diss is undoubtedly the biggest reason why “Like That” had such a splashy No. 1 debut. And he’s a straight shooter with no time for subliminal targeting. Just go back and listen to Big Sean’s 2013 track “Control,” where Kendrick called out 11 rappers – including J. Cole, Drake and even Sean – by saying, “I’m usually homeboys with the same n—as I’m rhymin’ with/ But this is hip-hop, and them n—as should know what time it is/…. I got love for you all, but I’m tryna murder you n—as.” He’s kept that same energy for over a decade.  

And while Dot has been nothing but direct, Drake has contained the sneak dissing to his Instagram captions (for now) — even though he and J. Cole have had prime opportunities to clap back more candidly during their It’s All a Blur Tour — Big As the What? Cole’s Dreamville Festival is coming up this weekend, so maybe we’ll hear something from either of them then. In Drake’s 2013 Billboard cover story, he didn’t have much to say and dismissed Dot’s diss on “Control.” “I didn’t really have anything to say about it. It just sounded like an ambitious thought to me. That’s all it was,” he said. “I know good and well that Kendrick’s not murdering me, at all, in any platform. So when that day presents itself, I guess we can revisit the topic.” Well, Aubrey, I believe the time has come.  

Michael Saponara: I think there’s a good chance it still debuts at No. 1, but by not nearly as wide of a margin. “Like That” still would have been a standout on the collab effort but the massive buzz from K. Dot taking aim at Drizzy and Cole only boosted the track to another stratosphere. For Metro and Future, they were mostly competing with themselves — as “Type S–t” featuring Playboi Carti and Travis Scott would have been the other option heading for the top slot. 

Damien Scott: “Like That” debuting at No. 1 on the Hot 100 is very likely due to Kendrick going at Drake and J. Cole. That’s not to say the song needed the verse. The track was already a standout on the album before Kendrick’s verse started. As soon as you heard Future sliding over the “Everlasting Bass” sample, you knew the song was going to be special. The Kendrick verse was just the icing on the cake. There’s an argument to be made that Future’s verses are better but, come on — this is rap. There’s no denying how exciting a good battle is. Especially when it involves the best in the game. It’s rare when a rap diss is also a great song. You can count them on your fingers and have some digits to spare. So, it’s not surprising people went so crazy for it that it topped the charts.

Andrew Unterberger: The year’s-best marks wouldn’t have happened without the drama, I don’t think, but a blistering Future & Metro Boomin song with a rare fire-breathing cameo from Kendrick Lamar? That certainly sounds like a recipe for a No. 1 to me, almost regardless of subject matter. The fact that “Like That” is actually good is as important as the fact that it started the year’s biggest hip-hop s–tstorm, certainly.

3. Between Megan Thee Stallion’s “Hiss” and “Like That,” we’ve now seen two rap diss tracks debut at No. 1 in 2024, where at this point last year we still hadn’t had a single rap song of any kind reach the chart’s apex. Why do you think beef is moving the needle like this in 2024 — and do you agree with Metro that the success of song and single here is a sign that hip-hop is alive and well?

Jason Lipshutz: Celebrity gossip is always going to be highly valued currency: regardless of the medium, “Did you see what THIS famous person said about THAT famous person?” remains a vital component in popular culture. Rap beef is obviously not a novel concept, although the A-list players involved in both “Hiss” and “Like That” are enough to transcend hardcore hip-hop fans and reach casual listeners who want to crane their necks and see what’s going on. And the fact that modern rap contains such larger-than-life personalities that the greater population is interested when they’re fighting speaks to how healthy popular hip-hop is right now.

Heran Mamo: It’s damn near impossible not to be tuned into beef if you’re a rap fan. Songs like “Hiss” and “Like That” will have you sitting on your couch, snacking on popcorn and scrolling through your phone to see which rapper is taking shots next and who they’re targeting and how it’s going to escalade. Diss tracks evoke larger conversations not just online but also IRL, and those who need to be up to speed on what’s happening inevitably have to listen to the songs that ignited it all, which have allowed “Hiss” and “Like That” to shoot to No. 1.  

This level of competitiveness and s–t-talking is at the core of hip-hop’s spirit, so I definitely agree with Metro that the genre is alive and well. We’re 14 weeks into the year, and out of the nine Hot 100 No. 1 songs we’ve had, four have been rap songs: “Lovin on Me” by Jack Harlow, “Hiss,” “Carnival” by ¥$: Ye and Ty Dolla Sign feat. Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti, and “Like That.” Rap is off to a great start in 2024, especially compared to where it was at this point in 2023, so I have high hopes for the genre.  

Michael Saponara: Controversy sells. Hip-hop has been built on its fair share of historic feuds over the years and while the landscape of rap beef has changed its warfare tactics with the introduction of social media, fans are always going to indulge when the competitive juices get flowing in battle. It seems like social media is extending the shelf life of diss records at times with beef maintaining a buzz in the culture longer than traditional songs, which feel more disposable than ever. Hip-hop is definitely “alive and well,” with three rap albums and four different rap songs reaching No. 1 on the Billboard 200 and Hot 100 charts after what felt like a possible slip thanks to a quieter 2023 commercially.

Damien Scott: Social media has also played a big part in moving rap away from lyrical sparring. Instead of throwing on a beat and making a song, a lot of artists now just take to Instagram or TikTok or X to tell their fans why they’re better than their competition. So, when an artists actually do engage in a real battle — especially the biggest rap artists in the world — people’s ears perk up and fans get excited. I don’t know if I agree that it’s a sign that hip-hop is alive and well, after all, these guys have been around for at least 15 years. Meg is the youngest out of all of them at 29. That said, it is a sign that all is not lost. Hopefully, younger artists see the success of these songs and see that some of the traditional elements of the genre are worth saving.

Andrew Unterberger: Rumors of rap’s demise have long been greatly exaggerated — just because hip-hop isn’t displaying the cartoonish level of dominance it did in 2018 doesn’t mean it isn’t still easily the biggest genre in popular music. But is this particular evidence of hip-hop being in a good, healthy place? I dunno. Certainly, it never hurts to have the genre providing music’s biggest action of the season, but the fact that all the names involved in this particular drama are ones who’ve been part of rap’s ruling class for a decade already, at least partially reheating old beefs, doesn’t strike me as the most important indicator of the genre’s current vitality. When we see credible 25-and-under challengers to the throne mixing it up with the so-called Big Three, that’s when I’ll really be excited for hip-hop’s alive-and-wellness.

4. While “Hiss” was able to achieve tremendous first-week excitement, it was not able to sustain it: within a month and a half, it was off the Hot 100 entirely. Do you see “Like That” having a similar trajectory, or do you think it’s in it for the long haul?

Jason Lipshutz: Long haul, for sure. Not only is Kendrick Lamar’s verse on “Like That” a more explosive takedown than Megan’s disses, but the song around it is more compelling than “Hiss”; plus, the early streaming returns in its second week suggest that “Like That” is still earning plenty of plays even as the controversy has quieted down a bit. Although it’s only been a week and a half, I think “Like That” has a chance to be one of the biggest hits of 2024.

Heran Mamo: If the beef continues and intensifies, “Like That” could have a longer run on the Hot 100. I’ve seen a lot of TikTok videos of fans praising Metro’s expert sample of Rodney-O and Joe Cooley’s 1986 track “Everlasting Bass,” so they’ve found other elements of the song (outside of Kendrick’s headline-making verse) to hold onto. But I’ve also seen a lot of Photoshopped rap Avengers posters on the internet that suggest “Like That” has initiated a larger war, which suggests it could have longevity.  

I’m curious to see if there’s going to be another buzzier track on their upcoming second album. At this point, the only thing that’s going to be bigger than a Kendrick Lamar-featuring diss track against Drake and J. Cole is a track with 21 Savage that solidifies which side he’s on, considering that’s what a lot of people have been wondering about, given the rapper’s tight-knit relationship with both Metro and Drake.

Michael Saponara: “Like That” is going to stick around for the long haul as I expect We Don’t Trust You to remain a commercial juggernaut for the foreseeable future. The only thing that could be tricky here is Metro and Future outdoing themselves with another project on the way in a couple of weeks. The Nicki Minaj-Megan Thee Stallion feud burned bright and burned fast. With Megan releasing “Hiss” independently and the serpentine-themed track not really catching on at radio (No. 40 peak on the R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay Chart), it didn’t have the staying power for a mainstream hit. 

Damien Scott: Again, “Like That” is a great song despite the Kendrick verse. Because it’s already getting radio play, playlist placements — and, according to some anecdotal evidence, getting spun in the club — there’s a good chance of this song sticking around. Even if it falls from number one, I think it will stay in the top 10 as people anticipate a response from Drake and J. Cole. “Hiss,” while a good song, didn’t have the momentum “Like That” now enjoys, likely because many didn’t expect much to come of Megan’s beef with Nicki Minaj.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it’ll stick around — but I also thought that about “Hiss,” and was quickly proven wrong, so I’m a little more hesitant to be so bullish this time around. I also would’ve pegged “Texas Hold ‘Em” and then “Carnival” as long-lasting No. 1s, and they seem to be tapping out at a combined three weeks on top. There’s just a lot going on this year, with more big names and big songs getting into the game every week, and folks seem to be moving on from last week’s news a little quicker than they have the past couple years.

5. A second full-length teamup is supposedly due from Future & Metro later this month. Do you think they can build on this excitement and do even better the second time out, or is some commercial recession inevitable coming so soon after the first time?

Jason Lipshutz: I’d expect some commercial recession, but who knows! Maybe there’s another song on Part II that’s even more incendiary than “Like That,” or something that comments on the existing controversy around Kendrick’s verse. Topping the biggest debut week of the year a few weeks later is a tall order, but depending on what’s actually on the album, anything is possible.

Heran Mamo: Putting out two full-length albums only three weeks apart is ambitious, and outside of “Like That,” I would’ve liked to see other standout tracks like “Type Shit” cook a little more before serving fans an entirely different menu. However, dropping back-to-back projects is a signature Future move: He had a legendary run in 2014-2015 when he released three mixtapes in five months – Monster, Beast Mode and 56 Nights – that successfully set him up for his culturally influential DS2 album, which earned Pluto his first Billboard 200 No. 1 album. Two months later, he completed his victory lap when he teamed up with Drake (RIP to that duo) for What A Time To Be Alive, which Metro executive produced, and it earned him his second No. 1 album. He did it again in 2017, when he dropped Future and Hndrxx one week apart from each other, and both topped the Billboard 200. Given his track record, the new set could one-up We Don’t Trust You.  

Michael Saponara: A minor commercial recession seems inevitable with the years-long anticipation behind We Don’t Trust You and Kendrick Lamar throwing gas on the fire taking it to new heights. Although, I could envision a scenario where the hype is through the roof if Drake somehow responds to “Like That” in the time until the next project’s arrival, addressing the OVO static with Future and Metro. 

Damien Scott: Some commercial recession is inevitable. Just look at the last time Future released back-to-back albums. In 2017, when he dropped Future and Hndrxx a week apart, the second of the two, the more impassioned Hndrxx didn’t perform as well as the first offering. Granted, Future, in a way similar to We Don’t Trust You, was helped greatly by a viral Metro-produced single, “Mask Off.” The song took off on social media becoming a meme and inspiring tons of TikTok videos. None of the singles from Hndrxx enjoyed the same sort of virality. Without another hit that completely and utterly dominates the conversation, it’s safe to say we’ll see a dip, even if slight, in the performance of the upcoming project.

Andrew Unterberger: Really depends what they have up their sleeve for Vol. 2. Doesn’t seem like Future and Metro would unleash a first volume with as big a secret weapon as “Like That” buried in its tracklist and not have something similarly major planned as the ace in the hole for its follow up. Will be hard to compete with the consensus best rapper of his generation calling out the unquestionable biggest rapper of his generation, but I’d bet it’ll still be something to capture a lot of eyes and ears.

While Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine spends a second week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this week, a pair of new releases check into the top five below it: country star Kacey Musgraves‘ Deeper Well, and Justin Timberlake‘s Everything I Thought It Was.

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Musgraves’ latest debuts at No. 2 on the chart, with 97,000 units moved — the best first-week performance of her career in units, and her highest debut on the listing since debut LP Same Trailer Different Park also hit No. 2 in 2013. Meanwhile, Timberlake’s first set in six years bows at No. 4 with 67,000 units, making it his first official album since 2002’s Justified not to take the top spot.

How are the two artists most likely feeling about their respective albums’ debut performances this week? And which of the two sets are we most likely to return to throughout the rest of 2024? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 – below Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine in its second week, but tied for Musgraves’ best-ever chart placement, and with her best first-week tally to date (97,000). On a scale from 1-10, how excited do you think she is with that debut-week performance?

Hannah Dailey: I’ll give it a 9. A No. 1 album would’ve been an exciting first for Kacey, but debuting as high as No. 2 while in competition with Eternal Sunshine and Everything I Thought It Was is still excellent, especially six albums deep into her career.  

Kyle Denis: It’s gotta be a 10, right? Kacey is the biggest winner of the week in my eyes. She’s spent years toiling outside of the Nashville apparatus and her returns have gotten more and more impressive with each subsequent release. If the success of Deeper Well tells us anything, it’s that Kacey has cultivated one of the most loyal fanbases in contemporary country music. There was no hit single – or as close to a “hit” as a Kacey track can be – nor was there an accompanying music film or flashy awards show performance. 

Deeper Well sold almost solely off the back of fan loyalty and good music. Moreover, the new LP is the follow-up to Star-Crossed, another Billboard 200 top 10 effort that was met with decidedly more mixed reactions than Golden Hour or Deeper Well. Star-Crossed and its film of the same name employed an aesthetic closer to mainstream pop than any of Kacey’s previous records, and she was able to retain the new fans she earned from that era and fold them into her larger fan base, resulting in the best first-week unit total of her career with Deeper Well. And for what it’s worth, Deeper Well and Eternal Sunshine had a very close race – this is a win for both ladies. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 7. A couple points get knocked off for getting so close-but-not-quite-there to her first No. 1 album and six-figure equivalent albums unit showing, but for Musgraves, this debut — with a relatively muted project, and nothing resembling a crossover hit single on it — demonstrates her continued commercial power as a genre-straddling singer-songwriter. The top of the Billboard 200 was crowded this week, and for Deeper Well to cut through the competition and earn the top debut should be a very encouraging sign for Musgraves. 

Jessica Nicholson: 8. When she previously earned No. 2 album debut on the Billboard 200, it was for her debut project Same Trailer, Different Park, which was led by her top 10 Country Airplay hit single “Merry Go Round.” She earned her first Billboard Hot 100 chart-topper with the Zach Bryan collab “I Remember Everything” last year and the song has had impressive staying power on the chart, further elevating her visibility in the leadup to the Deeper Well release. But none of the songs released leading up to Deeper Well quite reached that same bell-ringing chart height, and she has strong competition from Grande on the albums chart. Given all of the above, she’s had a stellar debut week for Deeper Well.

Andrew Unterberger: Probably an 8. To still be going up in numbers not just more than a decade after her debut but now a half-decade after her album of the year Grammy win for Golden Hour indicates that Musgraves’ audience is both impressively wide and absolutely in it for the long haul. Would’ve been nice to finally get that No. 1 though.

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2. Musgraves has long bucked the system when it comes to going the traditional routes of promotion for a country artist – but over a decade into her career, her popularity still seems to be growing. What do you think the biggest factor is behind Deeper Well scoring her best first-week debut yet?

Hannah Dailey: I think that Kacey is simply a really authentic person and a truly gifted storyteller, which keeps people curious about the ever-changing perspectives she offers in her music. I also think that Golden Hour, especially after winning AOTY, solidified her as an “album artist,” so people are always going to be hyped to see how she crafts a full-package experience with each LP. 

Kyle Denis: I’ll reemphasize that Deeper Well landed as a return to form of sorts. Where Star-Crossed found her flirting with legitimate pop stardom (visual album, headlining arena tour, VMAs performance), Deeper Well is sonically and aesthetically closer to the earthier vibe of Golden Hour and Same Trailer Different Park. When you combine the new Star-Crossed fans with an already fervent home base secured from the country star’s first three LPs, you’re left with a large audience that is invested in Kacey’s world-building. There’s also something to be said about the new fans she may have courted thanks to her and Zach Bryan’s Billboard Hot 100-topping “I Remember Everything.” 

Jason Lipshutz: One could point to Deeper Well sounding a little like a course correction back to the comforts of Golden Hour following the more urgent Star-Crossed, or to the fact that “I Remember Everything” with Zach Bryan gave Musgraves her first Hot 100 chart-topper while undoubtedly expanding her audience. I think it’s simpler than that: at this point in her career, Musgraves has developed a loyal listenership that transcends traditional country lines and is going to show up for her songwriting when she returns with a new project every few years. As long as Musgraves continues at the quality and release rate she’s been at for a while, she’ll be an artist that a lot of music fans will want to grow old with.

Jessica Nicholson: As music audiences have become increasingly niche, Musgraves hasn’t wavered from knowing who she is as an artist and has a keen sense of what her audience wants. A key part of Musgraves’ brand has always been her complex, introspective, vivid style of songwriting, which also happens to fall right in line with what has been popular among mainstream listeners over the past year, as evidenced by the success of Noah Kahan and Zach Bryan — both of whom Musgraves has collaborated with recently. She also smartly sees the continued resurgence of vinyl, and released nine vinyl variants of Deeper Well, including eight different colors of vinyl variants, which also boost those sales numbers.

Andrew Unterberger: It is indeed good timing for Musgraves, who is benefitting not only from vinyl’s increased value as a collector’s item among fans, but from country’s and folk’s ever-growing slices of the streaming pie — and from her recent allegiances with two of the biggest beneficiaries of the latter boon, Zach Bryan and Noah Kahan. She’s a thoughtful artist with a savvy sense of how to connect with her fans, and those are the artists who usually last the longest at her current level.

3. Justin Timberlake’s Everything I Thought It Was bows at No. 4 this week, with 67,000 first-week units – less than a quarter of the 293,000 units moved by his previous effort, Man of the Woods, in its debut frame. Are those numbers higher, lower, or about where you would’ve expected for Timberlake’s latest?

Hannah Dailey: They’re lower than I expected, but not that much lower. I assumed that his most dedicated fans, plus his appeal to *NSYNC nostalgia with “Paradise,” would carry him a little bit more than it did. At the same time, performers can only last so long at the top without changing things up artistically, something he seems either reluctant or incapable of doing. 

Kyle Denis: Lower. I wasn’t expecting anything all that impressive – given that no one seems to really care about “Selfish” and that his reputation is in the gutter right now – but Justin Timberlake not being able to clear at least 100,000 units in any circumstance is still a shocker. 

Jason Lipshutz: Lower. A drop-off in units compared to Man of the Woods was expected, considering that it’s been more than a half-decade since Timberlake’s last album and that Everything I Thought It Was wasn’t preceded by a particularly big hit single. Yet after all the press that JT completed rolling out the album, the new *NSYNC song on its track list and surprise reunion ahead of its release, the arena tour coming soon and the fact that it’s still Justin freakin’ Timberlake… maybe the album rebounds a bit as the tour picks up, but 67,000 units couldn’t have been the expectation for Week 1. 

Jessica Nicholson: Everything I Thought It Was comes six years after Man of the Woods, which earned two top 10 hits on the Hot 100, while the lead up to Everything only saw one top 20 hit on the Hot 100. Still, given that Man of the Woods debuted at No. 1 (and given Timberlake’s history as one of pop music’s biggest artists through his time with ‘NSYNC and his solo work in the early ’00s), his first-week numbers for the new album came in lower than I would have expected.

Andrew Unterberger: About where I would have expected, which probably tells you all you need to know about how Justin Timberlake’s last decade has gone.

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4. After a very bad half-decade of press that reached a new low with the revelations from Britney Spears’ recent memoir, Timberlake desperately needed an album that at least changed the conversation about him or moved him out of his past somewhat. Do you think this album accomplishes that? 

Hannah Dailey: No. If anything, I think JT was trying to say, “Look at me, I can still deliver all the same things you loved about me 20 years ago!” with this era. The problem is that people don’t love or even want those same things anymore. The approach backfired in that it solidified him deeper as the persona people have grown less tolerant of in recent years.

Kyle Denis: Absolutely not. The album would have accomplished that if people engaged with the music, but it’s clear that nobody really cares about it. “Selfish” — which was nearly overshadowed by a decade-old Britney Spears song of the same name – has yet to surpass the No. 19 Hot 100 peak it notched in its opening week, and none of the album’s tracks have emerged as a potential second single. Even Man of the Woods squeaked out two top 10 hits!

This is all coming after songs with Calvin Harris (“Stay with Me”), SZA (“The Other Side”) and Nelly Furtado & Timbaland (“Keep Going Up”) that went nowhere. People haven’t been connecting with JT’s music for some time now. In the case of this specific album, there’s certainly good material on it, but “good” just isn’t enough for his current situation. 

At best, the Forget Tomorrow tour – which, arguably, wouldn’t be possible without Everything I Thought It Was – will do more to change the conversation around JT than the music. With a total gross rumored to end up somewhere around $140 million and challenge for his most successful tour yet, JT will have plenty of time to redirect the public conversation with some good press. Barring a one-off surprise hit, it might be time to say that JT is entering his legacy act era as an artist who can sell tickets, but not necessarily new albums. 

Jason Lipshutz: Yes and no. While Everything I Thought It Was is a solid reminder of Timberlake’s pop panache and showmanship, the new album really needed a new hit or huge chart bow to fully transcend the recent negative headlines. Credit to JT for looking inward a few times on Everything I Thought It Was, as well as serving up the type of disco-funk grooves that loyal listeners can enjoy, but the narrative here is going to be less about the art and more about its commercial returns.

Jessica Nicholson: Including his ‘NSYNC bandmates on the album, and reuniting with them for a performance during his one night only show at The Wiltern in Los Angeles certainly sparked a social media frenzy. But overall, this album doesn’t seem to shift things forward — sonically or narratively. Instead, it seems to rely heavily on the mid-2000s pop and R&B sounds he’s known for, and barely seems address his personal life at all (with a notable exception in the album opener “Memphis”), when nodding to personal events now seems de rigueur for so many artists.

Andrew Unterberger: Nope. I feel for Timberlake a tiny bit because I’m not totally sure what he even could have done to change people’s perceptions of him on this album, short of a jarring sonic left turn or a harrowingly introspective lyrical focus. Maybe a greater artist would’ve at least attempted one of those, but Timberlake clearly wasn’t ready to close the door yet on his days as a central force in pop music, which is understandable. Nevertheless, this album may end up closing it for him.

5. Which of the two albums do you think you’ll be revisiting more as the year goes on? 

Hannah Dailey: Deeper Well. 100%.  

Kyle Denis: Deeper Well. Kacey’s new record will be evergreen for life’s quieter, more introspective moments. JT’s record has several strong songs, but they ultimately feel forgettable because his performance across the album is tragically devoid of the sauce that made LPs like The 20/20 Experience such triumphs. 

Jason Lipshutz: Deeper Well, although the best moments on Everything I Thought It Was have been enjoyable to revisit in the first couple of weeks since its release (and I am a well-documented Man of the Woods defender, who has returned to that one quite a bit). But as we enter springtime, I am ready to listen to Musgraves’ cozy tales of Saturn returning, lazy days and dinners with friends, birds chirping around me all the while.

Jessica Nicholson: Musgraves has always crafted music that feels intimate, relatable, timeless — even groovy when called for (see “High Horse” and “Justified,” among others). The laid-back, centered vibe and folky instrumentation of Deeper Well, along with the themes of peace, self-improvement and dismantling old habits that no longer suit her, make this a comfort-filled, if slightly sleepy at moments, listening experience — one that will warrant returning to repeatedly.

Andrew Unterberger: Probably neither, in truth — can’t say I’ve found either album to be particularly resonant so far. But Musgraves’ album is pleasant, and significantly shorter, so I guess that one.