five burning questions

Ariana Grande is back: After three years of relative quiet (outside of a chart-topping Weeknd collab here or there), the pop superstar returned earlier this month with the lead single from her upcoming Eternal Sunshine album, “Yes, And?”

Explore

Explore

See latest videos, charts and news

See latest videos, charts and news

The house-flavored new song, offered largely in response to gossip about her personal life and body image in the intervening years, debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, edging past Jack Harlow’s reigning champ “Lovin on Me.” The song was helped over the top by a variety of remixes and edits, which assisted the song’s 2024-best sales debut (53,000).

What does Grande’s new song portend about her new era? And will the song stick around for a long time to come? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. “Yes, And?” debuts atop the Billboard Hot 100, albeit in a closer race with second-place-finisher “Lovin on Me” than some might have expected. Do you expect the song to be a long-lasting top pop hit, or more of a quick re-introduction of Grande’s new era before the rest of the Eternal Sunshine rollout?

Rania Aniftos: Grande’s standout hits from her albums are rarely the lead single, and I think that will probably be the case with Eternal Sunshine as well. I’m hoping for a less controversial track that actually represents the growth that Ari sees in herself over the next few weeks, and I hope that’s the one that stands the test of time!

Kyle Denis: I think this is definitely more of a quick re-introduction of Grande to the pop music scene. Rumors are already swirling about a new single arriving as early as next month, so I’d imagine we get at least one more taste of the album before March 8. With that being said, I also don’t think “Yes, And?” will freefall down the Hot 100. I doubt it spends multiple weeks at No. 1, but once it hits its stride on radio, it should end up being a solid hit that likely follows a similar chart run to her own “No Tears Left to Cry.”

Joe Lynch: I don’t see it being an ongoing threat for the No. 1 spot in the way that “Thank U, Next” and “7 Rings” dominated, but when it comes to Ari’s Hot 100-toppers, even a song like the Justin Bieber collab “Stuck With U” – probably her least beloved single to top the Hot 100 – remained on that chart for 18 weeks. She has an amazing voice that’s well-suited to the current radio landscape and she streams well, so I expect it to stick around… but would be surprised to see it at No. 1 for more than 2 weeks in total.  

Meghan Mahar: I think that “Yes, And?” has the potential to become a more dominant No. 1 over “Lovin on Me,” but it ultimately serves as a safe introduction to her Eternal Sunshine era. Historically, dance and dance-adjacent hits have performed well for Grande — but I feel that this was an opportune time to release a song like “Yes, And?” that is lighthearted and club-friendly. There has been a clear demand for these songs, as we’ve seen with the success of releases including David Guetta and Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue),” Troye Sivan’s “Rush,” and Dua Lipa’s “Houdini.”

Andrew Unterberger: It seems likely to me to follow a “Vampire”-type trajectory: Just the one week on top, but at least a handful in the top 10, and a long run in the top 40 as radio picks up on it. Not an era-defining smash, but big enough to re-announce Grande’s presence with authority as needed.

[embedded content]

2. It’s already been over three years since the release of her most recent album, 2020’s Positions. Do you think Grande’s returning to pop music in 2024 in stronger, weaker or about the same standing as when she left?

Rania Aniftos: It’s a tough question, because while musically, she’s returning to pop in an equally powerful place as she left it, her public image has been a bit compromised over the past year due to headlines surrounding her relationship. I’ve already been seeing fan reactions to the song, expressing disappointment at the sentiment despite liking how catchy the track is — with longtime supporters feeling uncomfortable giving her streams and listening to the song. If she can gracefully navigate the personal aspects of her public perception, I think she’s geared up to create a Thank U, Next-like splash with her upcoming album.

Kyle Denis: Stronger. Although the split opinions regarding her romantic life are incredibly loud on the Internet, Grande is returning to the scene as an elder stateswoman of sorts. Last year, she celebrated the ten-year anniversary of her pop recording career, she has a blockbuster film (Wicked: Part One) on the horizon, and she already had five No. 1 hits this decade before “Yes, And?” was announced. You’d be hard-pressed to find a post-Grande pop star who can match her string of quality hit singles over the past decade – and that’s why her absence was so deeply felt. Just five years ago, Grande’s name was among the list of stars who had countless hits and no Hot 100 chart-toppers. Now, she’s expected to debut at No. 1 practically every time she releases music. If that doesn’t make it clear how much her position in pop’s hierarchy has changed, I don’t know what would!

Joe Lynch: Pop is such a youth-oriented (youth-obsessed, really) market that it’s hard to pretend like four years is nothing — and yet, did she really go away? Ten months ago, she topped the Hot 100 with the Weeknd duet “Die For You,” and her modern seasonal staple (“Santa Tell Me”) reached an all-time peak this month. It might be a new era, but don’t call it a comeback. Within a couple percentage points for error, I would say she’s as strong as when Positions dropped. 

Meghan Mahar: Stronger. Headlines about Grande in the time since Positions, whether they were about her relationships or teasers of her work on Wicked, kept her in the news cycle and fueled interest in her next project. What truly gives her a competitive edge, though, is the public’s need for a pop superstar. Many have released successful projects and grown to great heights over the past few years, but none have Grande’s artistic vision and vocal capabilities.

Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a little stronger. It’s hard to remember the last time a pop star was as palpably missed in the top 40 world as Ariana has been in her relative absence — if the popularity of Tate McRae’s “Greedy” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Nonsense” year were any indication, fans were practically champing at the bit for Grande-sized radio singles. Maybe some fans have turned on her, but as Doja Cat has proven multiple times this decade, hits solve just about everything — and Grande has never been in short supply of those.

3. “Yes, And?” adopts a fairly house-forward sound for Grande, resulting in her first-ever No. 1 on the Dance/Electronic Songs Chart. Do you think that foreshadows a full pivot to dance with Eternal Sunshine — and do you hope it does?

Rania Aniftos: I do! It’s a fun pivot for an artist who has been around for more than a decade at this point. It keeps things fresh, not only for her but also for her fans, and it plays on the nostalgia trend in music lately due to its 80s sound. With a name like Eternal Sunshine, she has to have some fun on this album, right?

Kyle Denis: No. In the same way that “Dangerous Woman” didn’t foreshadow an album of theatrical pop bangers and “No Tears” didn’t preview an LP filled with U.K. garage-inflected anthems, I don’t think “Yes, And?” is signaling a full dance pivot. Not to mention, Grande has dabbled with this sound before (2016’s “Be Alright”), so it isn’t exactly new for her. I think Eternal Sunshine will blend the best of her capabilities across pop and R&B like each of her last six efforts. Even though I’m not necessarily hoping for Eternal Sunshine to be a full dance record, I’ll gladly embrace it should that end up being the case.

Joe Lynch: Dance Ariana has always been one of my favorite Arianas (“Break Free” is GOAT) but the house-forward sound did surprise me a bit, simply because two major artists (Beyoncé and Drake) boosted that sound back to the wider public in 2022. I’m never angry at hearing house music, but it does seem like she’s following a trend on this one. So while I’d celebrate a dance LP, I’m hoping there are some sonic surprises afoot that push pop forward.   

Meghan Mahar: As much as I would personally love a full dance record, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Grande has had several dance and dance-adjacent tracks in the past: “Break Free” with Zedd (2014) and “Into You” (2016) came to mind when I heard “Yes, And?” and both came from albums with a solid range of sounds. The success of “Rain on Me” with Lady Gaga (another No. 1 debut) was likely a factor that informed the release of this song. I feel that “Yes, And?” foreshadows Grande referencing her past sounds and eras, but from a more mature place in her life.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s hard for me to see Grande going full club energy for a full album. Not that she couldn’t pull it off, but her truest sweet spot to me is still in the cozy confines of a soul-pop ballad or midtempo number, and I don’t think she’d want to limit herself strictly to the upper BPM ranges for all of Eternal Sunshine. I’m betting this song basically serves for its parent album as “No Tears Left to Cry” did for Sweetener: a blast to kick off her new era, which ultimately proves to forecast only a small bit of what the rest of the album has to offer.

4. The chart-topping debut for “Yes, And?” gives Max Martin his 24th No. 1 as a producer, moving him into sole possession of the all-time record. Do you think anyone will pass his mark anytime soon?

Rania Aniftos: Unless Mariah Carey enters a production-focused era of her career, I really doubt it. He’s dominating by a landslide among producers who are alive. 

Kyle Denis: I think this record is Max Martin’s to keep for a long while. Should Dr. Luke continue to find work despite his public fall from grace, it’s possible he will catch up to him. Nonetheless, I don’t think the producer who passes Max’s mark has gotten their start yet.

Joe Lynch: Well, I don’t think his runner-up (George Martin) is going to prove much competition in the 2020s, but Dr. Luke – who has produced or co-produced 18 No. 1s – could narrow the gap in the upcoming years. Even so, I think it’s pretty unlikely that anyone that he, or anyone, will take the lead from Max in the next five to 10 years.  

Meghan Mahar: No— the first runner up, Dr. Luke, is 6 songs behind Martin’s 24 No. 1 record and Martin is not showing any signs of slowing down. In recent times, it seems as if Dr. Luke has been working with a wider variety of artists, whereas Martin has committed more time to projects with a smaller roster. Martin’s strategy has paid off and aligned him with superstars and some of their best projects, like Taylor Swift’s 1989 (2014) and The Weeknd’s Dawn FM (2022). Securing this level of prestige takes a career lifetime to achieve.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s Martin’s to lose. You could look at someone like Jack Antonoff and think “Well, if he stays as Taylor Swift’s go-to guy for the rest of the decade, could that alone be enough to get him there?” But as ubiquitous as Antonoff has seemed for nearly a decade now, he still only has five No. 1s to his name — which means he’d need about three a year from now until 2030 to beat Martin’s current total. Not impossible, but the head start that Martin has amassed in his near-30-year career — and he ain’t done yet — is not a gap that anyone will be able to bridge without putting in decades of their own high-level work. And probably not then, either.

5. What’s one thing not really covered by “Yes, And?” that you’d like to hear or see from Ariana Grande on this new album and its accompanying promotional cycle?

Rania Aniftos: I don’t know if this necessarily answers the question, but I love how involved Jim Carrey was on The Weeknd’s Dawn FM, and since Eternal Sunshine got its name from Carrey’s 2004 film, it only makes sense for him to be on the album in some capacity. 

Kyle Denis: While “Yes, And?” is a great encapsulation of IDGAF energy, I’d like to hear more about what’s been going through Grande’s head ever since Positions. What has it been like filming your dream role (Glinda in Wicked)? How have you dealt with all the internal and external pressures that come with such an endeavor? In the past few years, it’s clear Grande has done a lot of growing up. From her wardrobe and general demeanor to her overall aesthetic and relationship with social media, she’s clearly matured a lot. And, of course, she went through a divorce in the public eye while juggling her music and acting careers; I’d love to see her dig into those concepts and emotions on Eternal Sunshine, which, judging by the title’s allusion to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, she just might do.

From a purely musical standpoint, I think I’m most intrigued to hear how Wicked has impacted her approach to singing and songwriting. Could another “Jason’s Song” be on the way? I certainly hope so!

Joe Lynch: I’m not saying I want to hear a dance remix of “Popular” on her album, but with the Wicked adaptations occupying so much of her recent time, I’m champing at the bit to see Grande in full-on theater kid mode as she hits the late-night promo cycle. (Shout-out to her performance in 2016’s Hairspray Live!) Do theater kids run the risk of being a bit irritating? Of course. But she’s practically a national icon. Let her hit. 

Meghan Mahar: I love how Grande has showcased her versatility across her discography, but my favorite songs are the R&B selects and ballads. Her vocal range emphasizes the passion behind her lyrics, whether they be about being deeply in love (“pov”) or in deep pain (“ghostin”). “Yes, And?” is such a fun, carefree track — and I love this! It makes me want to dance with my friends in the club — but I also love a good cry. Her musical vulnerability, paired with behind-the-scenes content or stunning visuals (like the “pov” Vevo performance) in the promo cycle, would further cement her range. 

Andrew Unterberger: Ariana Grande has spent most of her career making pop for the bedroom — would she ever consider going full bedroom pop? Would love to hear working with Girl in Red. A Laufey duet could be dope. And how the hell have she and Billie Eilish (an avowed longtime Grande fan) still never worked together?

It may not officially be stick season anymore — the New England-area expression refers to the late fall, before the winter snow hits — but you certainly wouldn’t know it from looking at the Billboard charts.

Explore

Explore

See latest videos, charts and news

See latest videos, charts and news

On the Billboard 200, alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan‘s Stick Season album climbs back up to No. 5, having previously hit No. 3 last June. Meanwhile, its title track climbs 18-14 on the Billboard Hot 100, resulting in a new peak for the set’s lead single, which was originally released back in August 2022.

How has Kahan continued to grow his breakout LP this long into its album cycle? And how much further should he keep trying to maximize its impact before he officially changes seasons? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. Stick Season returns to the top 5 of the Billboard 200 this week — 15 months after first debuting on the chart and six months after peaking at No. 3 with the release of its We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe edition. What would you point to as the primary reason that the album is still doing so well this late in its run? 

Eric Renner Brown: The steady drip of remixes has kept Stick Season in the cultural consciousness, while exposing Kahan to new fanbases. Kahan’s prominence in the discourse only continues to grow, by way of his high billings on festival lineups and his December turn as Saturday Night Live‘s musical guest, putting him on the radar of still more consumers. And fall just ended – prime time for our autumnal alt-folk king.

Hannah Dailey: I can’t remember the last time another artist approached collaborations with as much consistency and volume as Noah Kahan has, but every month since September he’s been giving new life to songs from the album by inviting other musicians to duet on them – Lizzy McAlpine, Kacey Musgraves, Gracie Abrams, Hozier, and next up, Sam Fender’s remix of “Homesick,” set for Friday (Jan. 19). This draws new listeners from other fanbases into the album while keeping his own fans excited about the material.

Kyle Denis: I’d have to say it’s Noah’s commitment to working the album. A lot of his contemporaries tend to abandon albums and eras after 1-2 singles, and some of them pump out multiple LPs within a calendar year. While he’s kept a steady stream of new releases, they’ve almost all been additions to the Stick Season universe. His strategy of updating the album’s songs by way of duets with different artists is doubly effective: His core fans have another incentive to revisit the album, and listeners who may only be familiar with the featured artist have a reason to check out Stick Season. 

Lyndsey Havens: I can’t quite recall the last time an artist has done so well at staying spotlight-adjacent. It’s a fine line to walk between staying top-of-mind and over-saturation to the point of turning fans away, and Kahan has done it perfectly. Since the release of the album’s deluxe edition, he has continued to churn out clever collaborations. He’s performed on Saturday Night Live and his name keeps popping up on summer festival bills. All of that would be enough on its own, I think. But then when you also consider the time of year – winter, in many parts of the country – Stick Season was made for this moment. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a combination of holiday streams and the usual slow start to a new year in terms of major new releases that have helped push this album back up the chart.

Andrew Unterberger: Kahan has done the most valuable thing you can do as a singer-songwriter enjoying a breakout moment in 2024 — built a whole world around his project. Between the reissues, the remixes, the live performances, the social media posting and teasing and the coherent, specific recurring lyrical themes, Kahan has made Stick Season into something more than just an album. How many other alt-folk singer-songwriters have you ever talked about in terms of “album eras”? (Well, outside of You Know Who in 2020.)

[embedded content]

2. The set’s title track also climbs inside the top 15 of the Hot 100 this week, reaching a new peak of No. 14 a full year and a half after its July 2022 release. Why do you think the song continues to grow, even after so many other subsequent singles from Stick Season have been released and promoted in the meantime? 

Eric Renner Brown: “Stick Season” is Stick Season‘s title track because it’s an encapsulation of the album and Kahan’s Whole Thing: The verses are intimate (and timely, given the COVID reference), the choruses are propulsive and anthemic, and, naturally, it’s about autumn. He knocked the song’s performance on Saturday Night Live out of the park, too. It’s fascinating to me that Kahan’s highest-charting Hot 100 success as lead artist is the one single he didn’t release a remix of with a famous guest.

Hannah Dailey: When a song is both catchy and well-written, there’s no limit to how far it can go. Noah is simply really talented at writing songs that stick in your brain without you getting sick of them, and that skill really shines on “Stick Season.” It also helps that the song is fairly cynical and self-deprecating, two traits that have become hugely trendy in pop lyrics as of late (as pointed out by our very own Kyle Denis).

Kyle Denis: Honestly, it’s probably the hook. Save “Dial Drunk,” there isn’t a hook as immediately arresting as the title track on Stick Season. Moreover, the song benefits from how different its sound is in comparison to the dominant sounds of the mainstream: Afropop, house music influences, Jersey club, etc. Of course, a years-long TikTok-focused marketing campaign also helped matters; Kahan first teased “Stick Season” back in 2020, finally released the track in 2022 and has continued to relentlessly promote the song even in the midst of subsequent releases. He’s been persistent in pushing the song in a way that has fostered a remarkably intimate relationship between his audience, himself and the song’s lyrics. 

Lyndsey Havens: I suppose it really is the season of the sticks right now. There are certain albums that have a cozy feel to them, and Stick Season definitely delivers – as does its title track. Yet, its genius is that it sounds just as much at home blasting from an amphitheater stage in the warmer months, too. And right now, we’re in that middle ground of wanting to nest while also looking ahead to warmer festival days.

Andrew Unterberger: “Stick Season” may have gone lightly viral back in 2022, but it never really got a full mainstream moment — not like it’s having now, with Kahan now firmly in the spotlight — and continued to plug away at streaming. So now it probably feels like a brand-new hit to a lot of people, and it’s perfectly situated to capitalize on the ground that “Dial Drunk” and its accompanying Post Malone remix broke in establishing Kahan as a top 40 proposition.

3. While many of the tracks on Stick Season have received new remixes co-starring big-name guests, its title track has not yet been so revised. If Kahan wanted to boost “Stick” to the Hot 100’s top 10, who’s an artist you’d advise him to reach out to as a new co-star? 

Eric Renner Brown: Kahan couldn’t have pulled this off earlier in the Stick Season cycle, but now that more people know who he is and he’s staked out some turf of his own: Marcus Mumford. You know you want to, Noah!

Hannah Dailey: Olivia Rodrigo!!! It feels pretty much written in the stars at this point, given how she’s already covered the song and they’ve both publicly said they want to work with each other. Besides her, I’d love to hear Noah’s voice collide with Jeremy Zucker or Bon Iver, or maybe get back in the studio with Chelsea Cutler for a “Crazier Things” sequel. I also think he could make something epic with one or all of the members of Boygenius, of whom he’s said he’s a big fan.

Kyle Denis: I think the obvious choice is Olivia Rodrigo. Her BBC Radio 1 Live Lounge cover of the song garnered millions of likes when it hit TikTok last October; I’d imagine an official duet would pull in some monster streams. 

Lyndsey Havens: Oh, it would have to be Olivia. She already knows the song, as evidenced by her cover for BBC Radio 1 Live Lounge, and the two artists have made their fandom for the other clear. I’d say it’s only a matter of time. 

Andrew Unterberger: Rodrigo is no doubt the home-run choice — but if the busy (and traditionally remix-averse) Rodrigo is unavailable, how about going a little more old-school with Adult Alternative fixture Ray LaMontagne, arguably New Hampshire’s greatest musical export of the pre-Kahan 21st century? His voice would sound pretty mighty growling that chorus.

[embedded content]

4. With the Stick Season era now being 18 months old and still gaining momentum, would you advise Kahan to keep going with its promotion and revising as long as the album continues to build its audience? Or would it be in his best interest to quit while he’s ahead in the near future and move onto what’s next? 

Eric Renner Brown: The Stick Season era may be 18 months old, but many people have been aware of Kahan for far less time than that. And many people still don’t know who he is at all! Stick Season is a juggernaut and has so many good and successful singles – I think he should continue to ride this wave for as long as he can.

Hannah Dailey: My instinct would be to move onto the next album as soon as possible, while he still has as many eyes on him as he does now. I can’t even imagine how big the hype is going to be for his next project. On the other hand, I think it’s really beautiful how committed he is to seeing Stick Season through with all of his touring, remixes, and social media activity. It shows how much he loves and believes in the album, and how genuinely he appreciates the reception it’s gotten.

Kyle Denis: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I would advise Kahan to continue doing what he’s doing. Nonetheless, if another album track isn’t showing signs of single potential by the time “Stick Season” hits its commercial peak, it might be time to start teasing music from a new project – even if it doesn’t actually materialize for another few years. 

Lyndsey Havens: I say keep going. I really do commend him (and his team) for how well they have balanced this predicament – if you can even call it that – and with festival season ahead, he should continue to lean in. But hey, if he were to toss some new music into the set I wouldn’t be mad.

Andrew Unterberger: This is always the question, isn’t it? It’s tempting to tell him to just keep extending Stick Season for as long as the weather allows, but there is something to be said long-term for pulling back before he absolutely has to, and before he gets forever pigeonholed as The Stick Season Guy. I wouldn’t mind him using 2024 as something of a quasi-gap year — closing out his Stick Season touring and writing intermittently, while maybe keeping his name out there by returning the karmic favor on a couple peer remixes and maybe dropping a one-off single or two. Then in 2025, return in full force with the proper Stick follow-up.

5. With Zach Bryan and Noah Kahan experiencing extended breakout mainstream success in back-to-back years, who’s another rootsy singer-songwriter you might expect to have a similar breakout in 2024?

Eric Renner Brown: Tyler Childers has already amassed a huge live following; he’s headlining arenas and amphitheaters this summer, including two nights at New York’s Madison Square Garden. But he hasn’t had Kahan-level crossover chart success yet – his sole Hot 100 entry, “In Your Love,” peaked at No. 43 in August, even if it did also rack up three nominations at the upcoming Grammys. Childers is a bit more traditionally country than Bryan, who draws on rock sounds, and Kahan, who channels Mumford and Lumineers vibes – but he’s prolific and could hit new heights soon with the right single. 

Hannah Dailey: It’s a band, but I think Mt. Joy could be poised to follow on Noah’s trail. Briston Maroney, too.

Kyle Denis: Yola!

Lyndsey Havens: I’m rooting for Brenn! this year. I think he is walking a similar path as Zach and Bryan, but with a touch more pop sensibility that could help sustain folk music’s resurgence while also widening the fanbase to an even younger demographic.

Andrew Unterberger: Not the boldest prediction perhaps — you can currently find his “Pretty Little Poison” just 16 spots below “Stick Season” on the Hot 100 — but Warren Zeiders seems on the precipice of something pretty major.

Last week, we counted down our Billboard staff picks for the 10 Greatest Pop Stars of 2023. While it was a pretty good year across the board for pop stars showing out at the highest levels, we’d be lying if we said it was ever a particularly close race for No. 1.
It was, after all, Taylor Swift‘s year, pretty much from beginning to end. With three Hot 100 No. 1 singles, two Billboard 200-topping Taylor’s Version re-recordings and a tour expected to end up the highest-grossing in recorded history (and a box office-topping documentary to accompany it), it was an absolute 2023 for the ages for Swift — one whose enormity is almost impossible to put in proper perspective.

Still, we tried this week to answer some of the bigger questions surrounding Swift’s year: How do we try to explain the dominance of it? And can she do it again? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. We were unanimous as a staff in agreeing that Swift was the No. 1 Greatest Pop Star of 2023 — and maybe even that no one else was particularly close. If you were trying to explain to someone what made her year so different (without using stats), what’s the main thing you’d focus on?

Katie Atkinson: Her ubiquity. Whether you’re a day one Swiftie or don’t know a single song (I honestly have no idea how this could happen, but let’s imagine), I guarantee you heard her name at some point this year. Every state she brought her Eras Tour to gave her a queen’s welcome, as she transformed local economies in her wake. And if you somehow missed her stadium concert tour, maybe you caught her stadium suite tour as she also infiltrated the NFL. She also released two re-recorded albums and brought two songs (one four years old, one originally conceived nine years ago and one holding over from last year) to No. 1 on the Hot 100. Taylor Swift was completely and utterly unavoidable this year and she somehow found new heights to her already-stratospheric levels of fame and acclaim.

Kyle Denis: Taylor understands pop stardom. She knows that the show doesn’t stop once you’ve stepped off stage, and that’s what made her year so different. From a whirlwind controversial boyfriend (Matty Healy) and a link-up with the year’s hottest new star (Ice Spice) to music videos that expand on her already storied lore (“I Can See You”) and a very public-facing romance with Travis Kelce, Taylor performed pop stardom better than anyone else this decade. Each new occurrence in her personal life came accompanied by a new single, re-release, music video, or tour announcement, further expanding and cementing her hold on the mainstream this year. 

Jason Lipshutz: The best way I could explain it would be to describe Taylor Swift’s place in popular music this year as an all-consuming force that anyone remotely paying attention to pop culture in 2023 was familiar with to some degree. Over the past 20 years, the proliferation of the Internet has weakened the monoculture by giving us more entertainment options to focus on and discuss — but Swift’s cultural standing harkened back to a time when we were all listening to the same hit singles and watching the same things on television, cultural moments that were far-reaching enough to be inescapable. I didn’t think an artist in our current culture could recall a fervor like Beatlemania or the peak of Michael Jackson’s reign; Taylor Swift proved me wrong.

Meghan Mahar: Aside from the money she has earned and records she has broken, Taylor’s No. 1 spot on our Greatest Pop Stars list stems from her cultural ubiquity. She was already a household name but this year, she was truly inescapable, whether you were trying to watch a football game and saw Swift in the stands or saw yet another Swift-soundtracked trend on social media. The Eras Tour gave superfans yet another reason to celebrate their fandom, encouraged new listeners to dive into Swift’s discography, and emboldened fans who may have been a bit shy with their support to be loud and proud. This year, liking Taylor Swift wasn’t just commonplace — it felt cool and exciting to be part of something so massive.

Andrew Unterberger: The thing I keep coming back to is just how much Taylor Swift’s star status this year transcended any one of her hit songs or albums. She had plenty of both of those in 2023, but you didn’t necessarily need to be familiar with any of them to know that she was the biggest pop star in the world having the best year of her career — you just kinda knew from living in the world. It’s not something I ever remember experiencing before, at least not on this level.

2. And if you were using numbers — what’s the one that you think best captures how dominant Taylor Swift was this year?

Katie Atkinson: I’d say our headline last week estimating that Swift grossed almost $2 billion this year from her music, movie, touring and concert merch is about as mind-blowing as it gets. So basically she’s racking up numbers that are akin to the GDP of a small country (we’re looking at you, East Timor).

Kyle Denis: Definitely the fact that she became the first living artist to simultaneously chart five projects in the top 10 of the Billboard 200. It genuinely doesn’t get much more dominant than that. 

Jason Lipshutz: It’s the five albums in the Billboard 200’s top 10, at the conclusion of a year in which Swift did not release a new studio album. Those five included 1989 (Taylor’s Version) and Speak Now (Taylor’s Version), the two re-recorded albums that Swift released this year and spent 5 combined weeks at No. 1; Lover, which included the non-single “Cruel Summer” that Swifties sent to the top of the Hot 100, four years after its release; Folklore, Swift’s 2020 indie-folk pivot which has proven to be one of the most lucrative left turns in pop history; and of course, Midnights, which boasts Swift’s longest-running No. 1 single in “Anti-Hero” and could win the album of the year Grammy in February. Half of the top 10 being Swift albums — all of which posted that chart ranking for a different reason — demonstrates just how massive her year turned out to be.

Meghan Mahar: $838 million: the projected dollar amount of gross ticket sales of the Eras Tour’s U.S. leg in 2023. In a post-pandemic concert boom, Swift made Eras likely the second highest-grossing U.S. tour of all time, only behind the iconic Elton John and his Farewell Yellow Brick Road Tour. This achievement is insane when you consider how far along Elton was in his career when he set this record and how much music he had behind him. Swift is only 34 years old and putting numbers on the board. For scale: according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median price for a home in the U.S. is $431 thousand dollars. This means that Swift could buy almost 2,000 homes with her U.S. Eras grosses alone.

Andrew Unterberger: The Billboard 200 and tour stats are remarkable, but I go back to the first-week number for 1989 (Taylor’s Version): 1.653 million units. Not only is that the biggest debut week of Swift’s career — bigger than Midnights, bigger than the original 1989 — but it’s a full 1.15 million larger than any week posted by a non-Taylor Swift artist this year. And it’s not even for a new album — it’s for a re-recording, basically a deluxe reissue with some new bonus tracks. In 2021, we were talking about how impressive it was that Fearless (Taylor’s Version) moved 291,000 units in its first week; just two years and three TVs later, she’s doing nearly six times that. It’s mind-boggling.

[embedded content]

3. While Swift had three No. 1 hits and 53 Hot 100 entries this year, it wasn’t necessarily her biggest year in terms of new music. Nonetheless, if you had to define her 2023 in one song of hers, which would it be?

Katie Atkinson: Definitely “Cruel Summer.” The Lover song never had its moment in the sun when it was first released, so it was really magical to watch it become an honest-to-god organic hit four years later, even without a music video or other gimmicks. As the opening song on the Eras Tour setlist, it felt like a celebration of the career-defining trek to have it climb all the way to the top.

Kyle Denis: I think it would still be “Anti-Hero.” It felt like the Swift song people kept returning to despite the subsequent Midnights singles and From the Vault tracks. 

Jason Lipshutz: The obvious choice is “Cruel Summer” — Swift’s commercial enormity, exemplified in a years-belated hit — but I’m going with “Anti-Hero,” not only because it started the year on top and turned into Swift’s longest-leading No. 1 single on the Hot 100, but because it’s one of the best singles of her career, immediately catchy and self-lacerating, steeped in imagery but able to push a phrase like “It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me” into the cultural lexicon. It’s easy to forget that the centripetal force of Swift’s gargantuan success still has to be great music; the tour, awards, visual projects and general celebrity don’t hit as hard if the hits are subpar. “Anti-Hero” was a revelation in the midst of Midnights, though, and if I’m explaining her recent musical success to someone, I’m starting there.

Meghan Mahar: “Karma.” Swift’s success can be traced back to various factors, whether it’s how she has stayed true to her art, employed brilliant marketing tactics, or built a strong relationship with her fans. However, the two things that stood out to me this year more than ever were how intentional and positive Taylor was with her actions. An artist can’t reach this level of success without being widely loved, and I believe that Taylor has made genuine connections in the industry that continue to fuel her success. Take Kelly Clarkson, for example, who suggested that Swift re-record her older works, laying the groundwork for all the Taylor’s Version releases. “Karma” is how Taylor turned a bad situation into everything her “eras” have become, including nearly $2 billion grossed across merchandise, movie tickets, and music sales.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s gotta be “Karma” for me — the Ice Spice remix, the Eras Tour debut, the general victory-lappy vibe of it all. It won’t go down as her most beloved song from this period, but it’s the first one I’ll think of when recalling what the era felt like.

4. Is there anyone else currently impacting the pop mainstream who, if they do absolutely everything right from here, you think might one day be capable of a year comparable to Swift’s 2023?

Katie Atkinson: Whew. It’s hard to imagine, but it feels like the start of Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo’s careers mirror some of the hallmarks of Swift’s beginning – like starting out as a teenager, racking up both commercial and critical success. They’re building bases that could possibly rise to that level is everything is nurtured and continues at this A-list pace. But even then, it’s hard to imagine another pop star who is going to reach their commercial peak at age 34 like Swift has accomplished. And who knows? She could go higher.

Kyle Denis: Olivia Rodrigo. Her fan base is still relatively young so she can spend the next few years cultivating a special relationship with them to lay the foundation for a year like Swift’s one day. Her music and brand also have a comparable reach to Taylor’s, which will make it easier for her to reach those kinds of commercial heights. 

Jason Lipshutz: Not really? The two names that come to mind immediately, Adele and Drake, could release hits-packed commercial juggernauts, and possess the back catalogs to mount in-demand tours… but even if everything did go right in that promotional blitz, they probably couldn’t muster the level of all-out cultural fascination that Taylor Swift has reached. These runs come along once in a generation, so I’d guess that, if another artist could in fact replicate Swift’s 2023, we haven’t met them yet.

Meghan Mahar: There are two major keys to success that an artist would need to reach Swift’s level of 2023 success: a consistently rich, impactful discography and a wide-reaching, highly-favored public persona. Based on these criteria, I think the only pop star who’s fully active at the moment who can truly be in the conversation is Beyoncé. While she didn’t have as big a year as Taylor by the numbers, Renaissance and its corresponding tour proved that she can reinvent herself and still reach tremendous heights. If we are still waiting on two more acts of the Renaissance project, Queen Bey might bless us with a wild 2024. I think Ariana Grande could rise to this potential as well, and I’m excited to see how she returns to the spotlight next year. I’m hoping that she has a major comeback in which she releases a new album and does a press run for Wicked: Part One.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t really see it happening for anyone else. Olivia Rodrigo would be the only newer artist whose trajectory to this point looks to be even remotely similar to Swift’s at this point in her career — but she’s got so long and so far to go to get there that it’s unreasonable to expect or even hope for. I wouldn’t say it’ll never happen again, but when it does, chances are it’ll be with someone totally unfamiliar to us currently, and in a totally new way that we never could have seen coming in 2023.

[embedded content]

5. If you had to bet right now, do you think Taylor Swift will also be the runaway pick for our Greatest Pop Star of 2024 around this time next year?

Katie Atkinson: I don’t want to bet against Taylor ever. I guarantee she’s on that list, given we have another full year of The Eras Tour ahead of us, but we’ll have to see whether she might take a (much-needed) break from the prolific pace of her album and re-recording releases next year. She’ll be top five regardless.

Kyle Denis: I won’t say she’ll be the runaway pick, but I do think she’ll be in the top five or top three contenders. The tricky thing with a year like the one Swift has had is that the pendulum eventually swings in the other direction.  

Jason Lipshutz: It’s simply too early to tell. I do want to point out a pattern, though: Swift released two re-recorded albums in 2021, then a new studio album in 2022, then back to two re-records in 2023… Could the cycle continue, and we get a new Swift album next year? If we do, then yes, she is the prohibitive favorite for our Greatest Pop Star of 2024. Bet against Taylor at your own risk.

Meghan Mahar: Absolutely. There are Eras Tour dates lined up through December of 2024, and every show will generate new content now that Swift’s slate of surprise songs will be reset at the top of the year. In addition to surprise songs, the Reputation and Taylor Swift debut eras that are incorporated into the show will continue to fuel the anticipation of the Taylor’s Version releases — and I would bet that we are getting at least one of those albums next year. The fact that Taylor has two more potentially career-defining projects in the pipeline is insane, and her dominance over the news cycle goes beyond her professional endeavors. Between her high-profile friendships and budding romance, I don’t think we will hear the end of Swift anytime soon.

Andrew Unterberger: Between her and the field I’ll probably take the field — there’s just too much competition out there, and it’s hard enough to sustain a year like Swift’s 2023 for 12 months let alone for 24 — but she’s certainly got the best odds of anyone on the field. It may come down to how much she wants that title again, or whether she’d rather give herself (and by extension everyone else) a little bit more of a break instead.

In late November, Billboard released its Year-End Hot 100 chart, ranking the 100 biggest hits of the 2023 chart year on the marquee songs listing. It was topped by Morgan Wallen’s 16-week Hot 100 No. 1 “Last Night” — one of his eight entries on the chart, most of any artist, all hailing from parent album One Thing at a Time — with Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” and SZA’s “Kill Bill” following behind at Nos. 2 and 3.
With a little time to reflect on it, Billboard‘s staff is taking a look at some of the more interesting entries and trends on the Year-End chart. What songs were higher or lower than we expected? And what songs on the current weekly Hot 100 will we expect to be high finishers on the 2024 Year-End rankings? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. A top three of “Last Night,” “Flowers” and “Kill Bill” feels about right for 2023. If you had to pick just one of the three to really capture the year in music, which would it be?

Kyle Denis: I’d have to go with “Kill Bill.” By all accounts, this was SZA’s year and the endurance of “Kill Bill” – even alongside another solo SOS single with comparable success (“Snooze”) – is a testament to how effortlessly she dominated 2023. 

Lyndsey Havens: It is pretty amazing that the top three songs really do represent what this year in music looked like, from country music’s dominance to pop music’s self-aware era. And while I’m tempted to pick the monster-hit “Flowers,” I have to go with the only right answer here: “Kill Bill.” Despite arriving in 2022, the way in which SZA remained front and center throughout 2023 — and the way in which this single alone never lost steam — makes it the obvious pick to represent the year. With the moody and menacing SOS hit, SZA not only made her long-awaited return but also helped other emerging R&B artists cut through — and proved that no genre is off limits for her, or anyone who is up next. 

Jason Lipshutz: While SZA’s SOS became a defining album of the past year, Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” captured the year in music more than “Kill Bill” for me by functioning more like a traditional mega-hit. For the first few months of 2023, “Flowers” was absolutely everywhere — atop streaming playlists, on multiple radio formats, blasting in retail stores and across social media. “Last Night” owned the chart-topping longevity and “Kill Bill” was a months-long TikTok sensation, but I’ll remember the multi-quadrant enormity of “Flowers” most clearly.

Joe Lynch: SZA’s “Kill Bill.” With that woozy intro and the homicidal lyrics, it’s got a bit of an edge, but it’s total radio catnip. It works as pleasant background music for some and sing-along fodder for others – it’s well-suited for this era of vibey, low-key music, a market where listeners don’t seem to respond to maximalist pop or hip-hop that’s so hard it would net a 10 on the Mohs scale.  

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say “Last Night,” which is representative of both the most most commercially ascendant genre of 2023 and of the way pop listening has become diffuse enough that a 16-week Hot 100 No. 1 could seem like the biggest song of the year to some and barely even make the notice of others.

[embedded content]

2. Do any of the songs in the top 25 particularly surprise you — either because you didn’t realize they were that big or because you don’t think of them as being that relevant to 2023? 

Kyle Denis: “Unholy” at No. 11 surprised me a little bit. For me, that song feels very attached to 2022 and it didn’t really seem to be driving much conversation during 2023, so a placement just outside the top 10 is impressive. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think what surprises me the most is just how prevalent country music was this year — eight out of 28 songs on the tally belong to the genre. But beyond that major takeaway, I’m most surprised by Chris Brown’s “Under the Influence”… a song I managed to go all year without hearing?… (And yes, I realize I am calling myself out ). My main thought is: “Must be from TikTok.”

Jason Lipshutz: If you gave me 100 guesses at songs in the top 20 of the 2023 year-end Hot 100, I don’t think I would have named Morgan Wallen’s “Thinkin’ Bout Me” — which is mostly a symptom of the song being the third-biggest Wallen hit of the year, as well as the slew of bigger country hits (Zach Bryan’s “Something in the Orange” and Bailey Zimmerman’s “Rock and a Hard Place” among them) above it on the list. “Thinkin’ Bout Me” coming in at No. 19 on the year-end chart speaks to Wallen’s gargantuan chart impact in 2023, where his One Thing at a Time album wasn’t just limited to just one smash single; maybe “Thinkin’ Bout Me” doesn’t persist as a durable hit, but Wallen’s 2023 achievements will stand for a long time.

Joe Lynch: Perhaps it’s recency bias, but I didn’t think of the Ariana/Weeknd “Die for You” as such an enduring song to be in the year-end top 10. “As It Was” – which came out a year-and-a-half ago! — is a surprise to see in 2023’s top 25. But the real surprise for me is Miguel’s “Sure Thing” – maybe it’s just his low-profile these days, but that got an eyebrow raise out of me, as I wouldn’t call that a ubiquitous track of 2023.  

Andrew Unterberger: I still can’t believe that “Something in the Orange” (No. 13) was as massive as it was — it never felt unignorably huge (or like the kind of hit that ultimately becomes unignorably huge) in the moment. But it stuck around forever, and now it wouldn’t surprise me if Zach Bryan’s “I Remember Everything” (with Kacey Musgraves) rates even higher on the 2024 Year-End Hot 100.

3. What song outside of the top 25 would you have sworn would finish in the chart’s top quarter?

Kyle Denis: I think I was most shocked to see the following placements: Lil Uzi Vert’s “Just Wanna Rock” (No. 28), Gunna’s “Fukumean” (No. 31), Coi Leray’s “Players” (No. 33) and Nicki Minaj, Ice Spice & AQUA’s “Barbie World” (No. 46). For the Uzi, its placement is understandable considering some of their biggest chart weeks probably fell in the tracking period for the 2022 Year-End charts. Regardless, “Just Wanna Rock” felt like one of the most dominant hip-hop crossover hits of the year, alongside “Players” and “Fukumean,” so all three tracks being absent from the top 25 is pretty surprising. 

I also find it curious that none of the Barbie songs landed in the top 25. The Nicki/Ice track felt a bit bigger than its Year-End peak suggests, as did Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night.” 

Lyndsey Havens: Coming in at No. 26 is “Ella Baila Sola,” the defining musica Mexicana song this year, and as such one of the defining Latin music songs overall this year. I’m pretty shocked it didn’t crack the top 25, though am at the least pleased it got so close. I’m also pretty shocked to see “Vampire” at No. 30, Olivia Rodrigo’s highest entry on this year-end chart. For an artist who seemed to have such a dominant presence this year, I would have guessed this song would have landed much higher.

Jason Lipshutz: I’m shocked that Gunna’s “Fukumean” only clocks in at No. 31 — mostly because it was released in July, so it missed out on more than half a year of chart points, but in my mind, that two-minute-and-change gem lingered in the top 10 of the Hot 100 for months on end. Regardless of where it ended up on the year-end chart, there won’t many more rap songs as year-defining as “Fukumean.”

Joe Lynch: Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red.” A three-week No. 1 on the Hot 100, a legit viral song, a radio hit and IMO one of the defining songs of 2023. I’m a bit surprised to see it rank just outside of the year-end top 50 – not even as high as Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit,” which seems like it came a million years ago. Maybe more listeners left “Red” on read than I thought.  

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll add to the chorus of support for “Fukumean” here, which not only felt like one of the defining hits of 2023, but — to my largely anecdotal experience — felt like it hung in or around the top 10 for most of the year. Maybe just a quirk of the math that it ends up so (relatively) low, but I definitely would’ve guessed top 20 for that one.

[embedded content]

4. It’s not unusual for songs from a Year-End Hot 100 chart to have been technically released the year before, but 2023 is unusual in that four of the top 20 (“Die for You,” “I’m Good,” “Under the Influence” and “Cruel Summer”) were either first released or first teased in the prior decade — while another two (“Creepin’” and “Fast Car”) are covers of songs from even longer ago. Does this fixation on the past say anything particularly interesting to you about pop music in 2023, or is it more of a coincidence than anything?

Kyle Denis: I think it definitely says something about the nostalgia loop we seem to be stuck in culturally. It makes sense that a year that saw a boom of nostalgia-bait podcasts for old T.V. shows and the dominance of a tour literally built on self-reflection (Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour) would be characterized by hit songs that consciously gesture to the past. 

On the other hand, I think that the success of more recent catalogue tracks like “Die for You,” “Cruel Summer” and “Under the Influence” is emblematic of how quickly we seem to move through album cycles nowadays. Outside of a few album campaigns lengthened by the pandemic year of 2020, the past few years have seen our biggest artists opting for quick follow-ups and lengthy tracklists – sometimes at the same time. This, in turn, leaves the consumer with a massive surplus of music to sift through, and, as it happens, not every gem is uncovered in an album’s original release year. 

“Cruel Summer,” for example, has always been a fan favorite from Lover, but Swift only pushed one singles from that record after its full release. She then dropped a pair of new albums the following year. That’s three album’s worth of new material in two years from an artist who used to plot exactly two years between LPs; of course, it took a minute for “Cruel Summer” to elbow its way into the limelight! 

Lyndsey Havens: I definitely think it’s illustrative of consumption habits today and not at all a coincidence. We’ve seen it happen before this year, where old hits become new again — the examples are plentiful — and while for some time that was credited to the all-mighty TV synch, it has become more and more possible due to TikTok, an app that seems to exist outside of linear time. More than ever, consumers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to selecting what songs — new or old — take off. From there, as we’ve seen particularly with a song like “Cruel Summer” or “Kill Bill,” it’s up to the artist to determine how much fuel they want to add to that fire.

Jason Lipshutz: We’re seeing the TikTok-ification of the music industry in real time: old songs becoming new hits after being revived on social media has become commonplace, particularly when, in the cases of “Die for You” and “Cruel Summer,” they involve superstars with huge promotional apparatuses ready to pounce upon bubbling trends. The success of “Creepin’” and “Fast Car” are extensions of that industry evolution in my mind, since their success was predicated upon listeners hoisting them up above the original tracks on Metro Boomin and Luke Combs’ respective albums. The year-end Hot 100 demonstrates that, today, music fans don’t care if a song is old or new, or an original or a cover — they just care if it’s good enough to stream on repeat.

Joe Lynch: I’m hesitant to wax philosophical too much, but here I go. I don’t think it’s coincidence. During fraught, stressful socio-political periods in history, audiences frequently go back to sounds and intellectual properties from the past. Familiarity is comfort for many, and consumers – whether they’re music listeners, movie-goers, Broadway regulars, video gamers or whatever – tend to seek out the familiar in times of national and international uncertainty.  

Andrew Unterberger: It’s about TikTok, for sure — but it’s also about radio essentially acquiescing to TikTok when it comes to determining what a hit is and should be. Two or three years ago, some of these songs might’ve gone viral without ever really being embraced by radio, and without that second wind to their chart fortunes they would’ve faded on the Hot 100 before they got the chance to really make enough impact for the Year-End ranking. But now, top 40 is following TikTok’s lead on songs like “Die for You,” “Cruel Summer” and Combs’ “Fast Car,” and it’s resulting in some of the biggest and longest-lasting hits of the year.

5. If you had to bet, what song that’s currently on the Hot 100 would you expect to finish the highest on the 2024 Year-End tally?

Kyle Denis: I’m putting my money on either Jack Harlow’s “Lovin On Me,” Tate McRae’s “Greedy” or Tyla’s “Water.” 

Lyndsey Havens: I’m going to guess Tate McRae’s “Greedy,” with my runner-up picks being SZA’s “Snooze” and Dua Lipa’s “Houdini” (as Lipa has said herself, her songs are slow burns… and if an album drops next year, “Houdini” will likely enjoy renewed attention). Even so, “Greedy” seems like the obvious choice here, largely given my answer above about the role TikTok plays in sustaining a hit today. And despite McRae recently saying she doesn’t want to make hits for TikTok, her fans have other plans — and they most definitely are using “Greedy” to soundtrack their clips on the app. Because of this, I do think the song will sustain through the holiday season and well into 2024.  

Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with Noah Kahan’s “Stick Season,” which has peaked at No. 31 and spent 10 weeks on the chart thus far, but Kahan feels primed for a huge, arena-show-packed 2024, and as his signature song, “Stick Season” could keep hanging around the top 40 of the Hot 100 for months on end. Maybe it never reaches No. 1 or even breaks into the top 10, but I’d be pretty surprised if “Stick Season” isn’t high up on the 2024 year-end Hot 100.

Joe Lynch: Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night.” A song this unstoppable in 2023 is going to keep going on radio and streaming well into 2024, making this seem like a “Night” that just won’t end.

Andrew Unterberger: Alluded to this earlier, but “I Remember Everything” is my call for a song that unexpectedly catches a second wind (radio finally getting on board?) in 2024 and lingers on the chart for longer than anyone expects.

A short 65 years after its 1958 release, Brenda Lee‘s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” finally hits the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 this week.
The Christmas classic, which rose to No. 2 each of the last four holiday seasons but was previously unable to unseat Mariah Carey’s beloved “All I Want for Christmas is You,” gets all the way to the Hot 100’s apex on the chart dated Dec. 9 — making Lee’s third career No. 1, after “I’m Sorry” and “I Want to Be Wanted” both reached pole position in 1960. It comes after a major promotional push from both Lee and her UMG Nashville label, including a new music video, a new holiday EP, and a whole lot of new Lee TikToks, all timed to the song’s 65th birthday celebration this year.

Explore

See latest videos, charts and news

See latest videos, charts and news

What was it that finally got the song over the top? And is the No. 1 spot now Lee’s to lose? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. After 65 years — and four years of finishing in the runner-up spot on the Hot 100 to “All I Want for Christmas Is You” every December — Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” finally claims the No. 1 spot this week. On a scale of 1-10, how would you rate the historical long-delayed triumph of “Rockin’” topping the Hot 100 in 2023?

Katie Atkinson: I’ll go with a 5, only because it was the most likely non-Mariah Christmas song to get to No. 1 next so it felt inevitable. But I also wouldn’t have been surprised if Mariah had just never ceded the top spot every December from here for years to come. But I love that this opens up the possibility of a revolving door of holidays hits that shift places in and out of the top spots every year. Justice for Bobby Helms!

Kyle Denis: 7. This is fun! It’s cool to see that “All I Want for Christmas Is You” really did a break a glass ceiling for the Hot 100 performance of holiday tracks in the streaming era.

Jason Lipshutz: A 10. As astonishing as it was when Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” finally reached No. 1 a few years ago, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” surpassing that season-defining juggernaut — even for one week — is even more shocking to me. I would have expected a newer Christmas song to become the next non-Mariah holiday single to top the Hot 100; instead, we have Brenda Lee’s 65-year-old standard getting over the hump. This is as improbable as chart feats get.

Taylor Mims: I would rate it a 7. December on the charts has become a lot more interesting since the Hot 100 rules changed to allow holiday music on the main popular chart. The holidays tend to be a slow time for the music industry, but with Mariah Carey and now Brenda Lee vying for those top spots, there’s certainly more to discuss. Carey has really made a holiday meal out of her Christmas song success, but to see a track like Lee’s standard reach the pinnacle is fun to watch and gives everyone an underdog to root for this year.  

Andrew Unterberger: At least a 9. Four years ago I would have assumed the race between “All I Want” and “Rockin” would prove essentially asymptotic, with Lee’s song always getting closer but never actually catching Carey’s. Last year was the first year it seemed like there was even a real chance that “Rockin’” would eventually capture the top spot — and I still would’ve assumed it was several years away at the nearest. This year… I’m still having a little trouble believing it, to be honest. Kudos to Lee and UMG for achieving the near-impossible.

[embedded content]

2. Many factors went into this chart race — but most of all, do you think “Rockin’” finally getting past “All I Want” was more a matter of public sentimentality, promotion from Lee and her label, or just good timing?

Katie Atkinson: I’m going to go with timing here. There were some steps taken this year – like Lee releasing her first music video for the song in early November – but I think it really came down to “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” being the most popular song in that first full Christmas week this year. Yes, Mariah has the recent track record, but Brenda Lee has a 30-year head start on Christmas nostalgia. There’s also the possibility of fa-la-la-fatigue (sorry) for “All I Want for Christmas.” I have no doubt it will go back to No. 1 at some point, but it’s nice to give Brenda her moment.

Kyle Denis: I think it’s a combination of good timing and promotion from Lee and her label. In terms of timing, we aren’t in the midst of an incredibly dominant weekslong run atop the Hot 100, so reaching the summit proved a bit more feasible. Between a new music video, her active TikTok presence, and a promo run that has included collaborations with Kelly Clarkson and Dolly Parton as well as upcoming live performances, Lee and her team were clearly gunning for that No. 1 – and they got it. 

Jason Lipshutz: I think the extra promotion from Lee pushed “Rockin’” to No. 1 this year, after years of running a competitive race but coming up short against “All I Want.” The song has always been a major holiday hit, but this year’s not-so-subtle campaign — including a long-overdue official music video and TikTok appearances from Lee — boosted “Rockin’” just enough to give it a shot at No. 1. Public sentimentality and timing was on its side, but without that promo push, I doubt we’re talking about it finally reaching the top spot.

Taylor Mims: “Rockin’” hitting the top spot seems primarily the work of really good promotion from Lee and her label. That’s not to say it isn’t a great song: It’s fantastic and has absolutely stood the test of time and millions have been and will be playing the song all month. But Lee and her team made a concerted effort to push this song over the threshold on this anniversary and with a star who is incredibly endearing. They got public sentimentality on their side, which is saying a lot considering how crowded the month is with holidays, shopping and general end-of-the-year stress. It shows that people are still interested in these personal profiles and good storytelling.

Andrew Unterberger: The promotion is probably the biggest factor, turning the race into something even non-obsessive Hot 100 watchers were aware of and making Lee’s hunt for the No. 1 one of the feel-good stories of the chart year. But you also can’t count out good old-fashioned playlisting, as Lee’s older holiday classic is privy to some coveted lean-back-listening territory that Carey’s modern standard is still deemed too new for. At this time of year, when a lot of folks are just reaching for the nearest, most-familiar and most-comforting set of Christmas songs available, that advantage is not to be overlooked.

3. Now that “Rockin’” has overtaken “All I Want” for one week, do you see it staying on top indefinitely, trading back and forth with “All I Want” week-to-week, or giving the top spot back up to “All I Want” and resuming its runner-up position?

Katie Atkinson: I see the two songs trading spots — and maybe even allowing for some other holiday favorites to slip in to No. 1 as well. I don’t think there would be anything that embodies the holiday season more than gifting a revolving door of legendary artists an unprecedented chart-topper decades into their careers or even after they’ve passed. Let’s shake it up!

Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to think it will probably concede the top spot to “All I Want” for a few weeks, but the points will be close. At this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a third holiday song sneak a week in at No. 1. 

Jason Lipshutz: Hard to say exactly — I’m still shocked that Brenda surpassed Mariah for a single week this year — but my guess would be that “All I Want” resumes its status as the biggest Christmas song on the charts and “Rockin’” dips back to No. 2. I respect Mariah Carey’s classic single as a culture-dominating holiday behemoth too much to entertain notions of “All I Want” staying in the runner-up spot, at least for the foreseeable future. While I’m very happy that Brenda Lee finally made it to No. 1, I suspect that this will be a one-week flare-up, and Mariah ascends to the top spot next week.

Taylor Mims: That all depends on how much work Lee and her team plan on putting in to this endeavor. “Rockin’” is officially a No. 1 Hot 100 hit, and I am not sure what a few more weeks at the top spot will mean for the track. I think it would take a lot more resources to keep pushing ahead of Carey and her well-oiled “Queen of Christmas” machine. As the month progresses, I also think it will be harder and harder to sustain attention on the subject and folks will go back to playing generic holiday music playlists. Without a PR push, I think it will go back to a close runner up position and there’s nothing wrong with that.

Andrew Unterberger: It seems like “Rockin’” might still have the advantage for this upcoming chart week, and with all this attention and momentum fully behind her, it seems possible that Lee might be able to hang on for the rest of the holiday season — though I certainly wouldn’t count out “All I Want” reclaiming the throne for a week or two. The bigger question will be who starts on top next year, and if it’ll be Carey’s time to turn up the anniversary-celebrating volume; next year will be the 30th birthday of “All I Want,” after all.

[embedded content]

4. With “All I Want” finally proving deposable, do you think more artists and/or their labels will be getting actively involved in trying to power their holiday staples up the charts? If so, is there anything they can learn from the success of “Rockin’”?

Katie Atkinson: Absolutely, but it’s pretty hard to take lessons from the decades of legacy “Rockin’” brings to the table. I mean, in addition to everyone growing up with the song, whether purposely or passively, it also has major moments in holiday movies like Home Alone, so you’re going to get your Brenda fix somewhere in the season whether you’re trying or not. But I think just providing a glimmer of hope that it’s possible to (temporarily) dethrone the reigning Queen means other artists, veterans and rookies alike, should shoot their shot.

Kyle Denis: I think we’ll absolutely see more artists trying to fashion chart contenders outs of their holiday originals. From the success of “Rockin,’” artists should take note of the effectiveness of relentless promotion that’s strategically spaced out to maximize chart timing. In the tracking week that ultimately culminated in the “Rockin’” reaching No. 1, Lee provided “part two” of an exclusive BTS music video set tour with appearances from Trish Yearwood and Tanya Tucker, stopped by the Bobby Bones show and visited Talk Shop Live. And this all happened about four weeks after she debuted the track’s official music video, which featured a 78-year-old Lee lip-syncing to her 13-year-old voice! Content is king!

Jason Lipshutz: No — if “Rockin’” hitting No. 1 decades after its release demonstrates anything, it’s that the holiday-song market is darn near impossible to game, especially when it comes to new singles trying to make a dent in the stronghold of the long-running classics. “All I Want” may be perceived as slightly more fallible now than it was last week, but it’s not like a recent holiday song upended its chart run; “Rockin’” is a beloved, generations-spanning single, and those are impossible to replicate within the music industry.

Taylor Mims: Artists and labels will absolutely be coming for Carey’s throne. Lee and her team had a great plan, took their time executing it and triumphed (please, everyone go watch the beautiful video of Lee finding out “Rockin’” hit No. 1). There is now a blueprint for challenging Carey for that No. 1 spot over the holiday season and I think she has a lot of adversaries ahead. Do I think they will all succeed? No. Do I think the public will get tired of holiday chart competitions? Yes. But when something succeeds as well as Lee’s campaign did, there will be copycats.

Andrew Unterberger: In all honesty, I think there’s only one song that has anywhere near the juice to properly challenge either of these songs anytime soon: Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” which is another undeniable classic that also seems to grow in public esteem every year (particularly after frontman George Michael’s death during the 2016 holiday season). If the duo’s Sony label label wanted to follow the “Rockin’” blueprint and do a big promotional push in time for a major anniversary — the song’s 40th anniversary is next year, though they might be better off waiting for the 10th anniversary of Michael’s passing in 2026 — I think the door is at least slightly ajar.

5. Ignoring all chart-related concerns: on another scale from 1-10, how much would you say “Rockin’” still rocks 65 years after its release?

Katie Atkinson: It’s a 10 for me. It’s just so cute and fun, and I’ve somehow never gotten sick of it. I still can’t believe a 13-year-old sang this stone-cold classic.

Kyle Denis: 6. It’s aight.

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. It’s not my favorite Christmas song, as is not as enthralling as “All I Want,” but I always enjoy hearing it on a holiday playlist, on the radio or within a too-crowded shopping mall, and get immediately transported back to the holiday listening sessions of my childhood. You could even say that when I hear it, I get a sentimental feeling.

Taylor Mims: That’s an easy 10. “Rockin’” is one of the most upbeat and cheerful Christmas standards and it is impossible to get out of your head after you’ve heard it once. It is the potato chip of holiday music — you can’t listen to it just once. It’s got guitar, a raspy voice, a touch of brass and a whole lot of heart. Every year we start hearing it earlier and earlier (pre-Thanksgiving now) and it warms the spirits in the cold months. Undoubtedly, “Rockin’” has another 65 years in it.

Andrew Unterberger: A 7. It’s not quite in the top tier to me, but I never really mind hearing it — which, after 65 years of annual overplay (37 of which I’ve been alive for), is still fairly impressive.

It’s been quite a past week for Tate McRae in the Billboard realm — in a span of about five days, she made her first-ever appearances on the cover of Billboard magazine, on stage as a Billboard Music Awards performer, and in the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100.
The last two appearances come courtesy of McRae’s breakout hit “Greedy,” which takes a more pop-forward, triple-threat approach to top 40 domination than her moodier prior hits “You Broke Me First” and “She’s All I Wanna Be.” In addition to delivering the song at Sunday’s (Nov. 19) BBMAs, McRae also performed the song (along with ballad “Grave”) on Saturday Night Live the night before — another first for the 20-year-old rising star.

How did “Greedy” become the song to take McRae to the next level of stardom? And what chances does it have of becoming her first No. 1? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. “Greedy” moves from 11-8 on this week’s Hot 100, becoming her first top 10 hit on the chart in its ninth week. Did you expect the song becoming this kind of breakout hit for her?

Rania Aniftos: Yes, the second I saw tube girl take over TikTok lip syncing “Greedy,” I knew Tate had found her hit. Every other video on the platform had “Greedy” in it.

Kyle Denis: Yes. I covered this song for Billboard’s Trending Up column back in September; the success of “Greedy” has been the result of a coordinated promotional effort beginning with a TikTok snippet strategy and adding several show-stealing live performances along the way.  

Lyndsey Havens: Oh yes. Tate has been developing as an artist and building the foundation for her career since 2018 — and even before that, if you count her teenage YouTube series Create With Tate. She’s already had a taste of success with breakout hit “You Broke Me First,” so the stage was set. And with a song like “Greedy” — with its endearing swagger and nostalgic production — the pieces finally fell into place.

Jason Lipshutz: No on the first listen, yes on the fifth listen. After a few plays, “Greedy” fully won me over, both from the standpoint of being insanely catchy and as a subtle showcase of the snappy rhythmic-pop sound in which Tate McRae has created a pocket. McRae is no stranger to top 40 radio — “She’s All I Wanna Be” and “You Broke Me First” both performed well in recent years — but “Greedy” is more immediate, charismatic, and downright memorable than those prior hits. As soon as it clicked into place for me, I expected “Greedy” to become her first top 10 hit.

Andrew Unterberger: I dunno if I could’ve ID’d at it as a sure top 10 hit in a blind taste test, but certainly once the TikTok hype of the song led to a top 40 bow for it on the Hot 100, clearly big things were in the works here — especially after the debut of its hockey rink-set music video, as star-making a moment for McRae as the song itself.

[embedded content]

2. What do you think the biggest reason is that “Greedy” has been the single to bring McRae to a higher tier of hitmaking?

Rania Aniftos: We’re still in this interesting time in music in which Gen Z is super nostalgic. They wish they got to experience the height of the Y2K pop star era with Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera, Jessica Simpson, etc. So, when Tate came out with “Greedy” and it’s sassy and flirty and feels fresh out of 2002, it’s exactly what her demographic has been looking for. 

Kyle Denis: It’s probably her most singular offering yet. Tate McRae is clearly a talented performer, but despite her previous success, a lot of her those singles felt faceless and nondescript. While “Greedy” isn’t the most innovative pop song of the year by any means, its undeniable chorus and connection to the “It Girl” aesthetic allowed it to unlock a new level of hitmaking for McRae. 

More specifically, however, the TikTok snippet campaign is what really sewed up the success of “Greedy.” Thanks to the campaign, McRae has been prepping consumers’ ears and stoking their interest for “Greedy” since the beginning of August. Couple that with two back-to-back live performances that flaunt her impressive dance skills and you’re left with a good old fashioned pure pop smash. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think there are two main drivers here. The first is that she’s sort of talking her s—t a bit… It’s clear she’s coming at the song from a place of confidence and matured sass, two traits that are an easy sell for most pop fans. That self-assuredness is not only heard but also seen in the steamy music video, in which McRae flexes the fact that she is also a professionally trained dancer. I think the combination of a catchy pop hit and eyebrow-raising choreography is fueling this moment. 

Jason Lipshutz: The hook here works across formats — from isolated TikTok clips to pop radio to streaming playlists — in a way that makes “Greedy” fit into a ton of different listening scenarios. Scrolling through social media and stumbling across choreo routines? Rolling through a new pop playlist on Spotify, or top music videos on YouTube? “Greedy” is malleable, and can entertain within a variety of pop contexts, which is why it’s caught on with such force over the past few weeks.

Andrew Unterberger: May or may not be the biggest factor, but I think “Greedy” is one of a few singles to benefit from the (relative) absence of Ariana Grande in the pop landscape. Grande was such a mighty top 40 fixture from 2018 to early 2021 that these past couple years without her doing much has left an unoccupied lane on radio and in the culture when it comes to flirty, quippy, swaggering pop&B — one that McRae was more than ready to swerve into here.

3. McRae released her follow-up single “Exes” last Friday — do you think the song will follow “Greedy” to hit status, or does it feel like “Greedy” will be tough for her to match?

Rania Aniftos: While “Exes” is equally as catchy to me, it’s going to be tricky to grab onto the viral success of “Greedy.” It really found the balance of having a TikTok trend attached to it, as well as it being marketable for radio, TV and other mainstream channels. I am rooting for “Exes,” though! It’s such a good song.

Kyle Denis: “Greedy” still has plenty of room to grow, so I’m not sure “Exes” will even get to half of what “Greedy” can achieve. “Exes” is fine. It’s less instant that “Greedy,” which could delay how quickly it takes off. Nonetheless, McRae is already growing into an artist who can really move the needle for her singles through live performances. Perhaps with the right stage, “Exes” will explode into its full potential. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think “Greedy” will be tough to match. I think instead of trying to compete, “Exes” — and her entire forthcoming album Think Later — will only help “Greedy” sustain. If anything, “Exes” proves that “Greedy” wasn’t a lucky one-off or contrived — it’s Tate fully loaded.

Jason Lipshutz: “Greedy” is still going strong, so if “Exes” is going to have a moment, I’d guess that such a moment is still a couple months away. That said, I do like “Exes” quite a bit: the bruising confidence and deep percussion of “Greedy” is carried over, and McRae’s personality is even more on display on the follow-up track. I could foresee a world in which “Ohh, I’m sorry / Sorry that you love me,” followed by that indelible cackle, becomes a quick-spreading meme at the top of 2024, and McRae continues her recent hot streak. 

Andrew Unterberger: “Exes” has its moments and is off to a pretty strong start on streaming, so it’s probably going to be a factor on the charts in the weeks (months?) to come — but it will have to shine while remaining in the shadow of “Greedy,” which is certainly not going anywhere anytime soon.

[embedded content]

4. The last week has represented a major moment for McRae, not only with the top 10 ascent of “Greedy” and the release of “Exes,” but also a Billboard cover story, a BBMAs performance and a musical guest turn on Saturday Night Live. Do you think having so much Tate McRae in pop culture at once will ultimately have a positive or negative effect on her career momentum?

Rania Aniftos: Positive, for sure. People who had never heard about her before or aren’t on TikTok are now getting introduced to her via more mainstream platforms like SNL or awards shows. This is exactly the exposure she needs to transcend from social media star to full-fledged pop star.

Kyle Denis: Definitely positive. For the past few years, Tate McRae has been floating around the ever-revolving cast of mid-tier pop stars that aren’t necessarily popular by measure of celebrity or name recognition. This level of exposure both helps consumers visually differentiate her from her peers, and showcases why she’s a pop star who people should bother caring about beyond whatever radio hit they may have in rotation at a given moment. Not to mention, she has an album due before the year’s end – this is all great for her! 

Lyndsey Havens: I think this succession of major wins will only have a positive impact overall, simply because these things are not happening to her right out of the gate. These things are happening as she’s promoting her second album. They are happening after years of development and key internal changes (like new management) that are finally paying off. I think this moment is happening because of the momentum she already had — and not necessarily because of the momentum from this moment. 

Jason Lipshutz: Positive, for sure. McRae has had hits in the past, but has not had the wider name recognition to turn those hits into sustained pop stardom; “Greedy” has functioned as a best-case breakthrough scenario, though, by not only becoming her highest-charting hit to date, but concurrently introducing McRae, the artist, to a mainstream audience. We’ll see how far that introduction takes her in the coming months and years, but she has her foot in the door now, and that’s all that matters.

Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, flooding the zone is rarely a bad move for pop artists in 2023. There’ll be some backlash, sure, but being at the center of discussion is something precious few artists can manage for any (not career-killing) reason in 2023 — so if you have the opportunity, may as well grab it.

5. Now that the song has reached No. 8 on the Hot 100, how much higher do you think it can still climb — will it get to the top five? How realistic a goal would a No. 1 be?

Rania Aniftos: Top five seems doable to me, but as long as Taylor Swift keeps releasing re-recordings and as long as “Cruel Summer” still exists, No. 1 is tough for anyone to reach.

Kyle Denis: I think the sky is the limit for “Greedy.” I can definitely see this growing into one of those songs that holds throughout the holidays season and enters the new year as one of the most dominant songs in popular music. She still has ample opportunities for live performances, the built-in boost of album release week and potential remixes. The song just hit the top five on Billboard‘s Pop Airplay chart this week, so its journey is far from over – especially as older 2022 hits and Taylor Swift’s vault tracks continue to free up space in the Hot 100’s uppermost regions. 

Lyndsey Havens: I would love to see “Greedy” enter the chart’s top five — and I do think once Think Later arrives in a few weeks that could happen. And hey, call me crazy but… historically, songs that end one year near the top can often begin a new year with even more attention as a result of how slow January can be. So, while a No. 1 spot seems a bit unlikely, I wouldn’t say it’s impossible. 

Jason Lipshutz: Top five is realistic for sure, although No. 1 will be difficult with a flood of holiday music about to return to the top of the chart. Who knows, though? It’s not like Burl Ives is performing intricate choreography in hockey pads!

Andrew Unterberger: Top five should definitely be in Mcrae’s sights for “Greedy,” which is still clearly on its way up, and if she and her RCA label have a remix in reserve — maybe even one featuring AG herself? — it could absolutely have a shot at No. 1. The key will be timing, and in fact it may be best for McRae & crew to wait out the Holiday crush and go for the gusto in early 2022.