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SZA dominated all of 2023 with her sophomore album SOS, topping the Billboard 200 for most of January and February, spawning a pair of top two Billboard Hot 100 hits in “Kill Bill” and “Snooze,” and ending with her being named our No. 2 Greatest Pop Star of the Year.

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Now, she kicks off her 2024 with the new song “Saturn” — expected to be the first taste of Lana, her much-anticipated upcoming deluxe SOS reissue. The twinkling “Saturn” bows at No. 6 on the Billboard Hot 100, already making it a higher-peaking hit than anything off SOS but “Bill” and “Snooze” — the latter of which is still kicking at No. 9 on the Hot 100, in its 63rd week on the chart.

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Does “Saturn” seem like a long-lasting hit? And what, if anything, does it tell us about what we can expect from the rest of Lana? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. “Saturn” debuts at No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that higher, lower, or about where you would’ve expected for her first new single following the blockbuster success of SOS? 

Hannah Dailey: No. 6 is a fantastic debut, and right about where I’d expect someone as huge as SZA to land with a deluxe track presumably from a reissue of an album that’s already well over a year old.  

Kyle Denis: I would say this is about where I would have expected it. Had this song dropped the night of the Grammys (during which SZA debut “Saturn” via a Mastercard commercial), it probably would have debuted a bit higher. There’s also the issue with the song’s mix getting updated after its initial release to DSPs, which resulted in a brief period of unavailability for the track. Regardless, a No. 6 debut for a relatively low-key release is certainly nothing to scoff at.

Jason Lipshutz: About where I would have expected, for a single that is preceding the Lana reissue of SOS but is not leading a whole new project. At this point, SZA is one of the biggest artists in popular music, so any new single debuting in the top 10 of the Hot 100 shouldn’t be a surprise, but “Saturn” doesn’t herald a long-awaited new full-length like “Kill Bill” (which debuted at No. 3) did with SOS, so a No. 6 start sounds about right. 

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, No. 6 sounds about right — it’s roughly in line with where the pre-SOS singles debuted, which is pretty impressive this far into the album’s cycle and while the top five on the Hot 100 has been pretty competitive of late. She’s not quite in 2011 Teenage Dream territory where even the deluxe edition cuts are debuting at No. 1, but she’s not terribly far off, either.

Christine Werthman: It’s right where I would’ve expected it to land: solidly top 10, with room to grow. SZA doesn’t have throwaway songs, so whatever ends up on Lana, the deluxe version of SOS, will be worth checking for and will likely do some damage on the charts. 

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2. “Saturn” is expected to be the first new taste of Lana, the upcoming deluxe reissue of SOS. Do you think it takes the SOS era to any particularly different or interesting new places, or does it more seem like a continuation of that album’s successes? 

Hannah Dailey: I lean more toward the latter – to me, “Saturn” feels almost like an epilogue to SOS, sonically and lyrically. The album finds SZA taking inventory of a lot of complex, difficult emotions and experiences, while the new track provides something of a thesis statement that ties them all together: “None of this matters.”  

Kyle Denis: For all intents and purposes, “Saturn” keeps us squarely in the SOS realm. Lyrically, she’s still in that place of self-deprecation laced with a touch of hope and a healthy dash of unflinching honesty. I think any song immediately post-SOS will feel like a continuation of that album’s success because it is. SOS lifted SZA’s career to new commercial heights and such a lofty debut for a less-than-seamless single release proves she’s operating at a different level now versus the years leading up to her sophomore album.

Jason Lipshutz: Based on “Saturn,” which sounds sonically and thematically in line with the primary vibe of SOS, Lana may very well be, understandably, a continuation of one of the most successful album eras of the past decade. Of course, SOS also contained plenty of stylistic curveballs, from the pop-rock of “F2F” to the alternative of “Ghost in the Machine” to the folk-pop of “Special,” so I wouldn’t expect Lana to sound like a monolith, either. I think we’re in store for a project that serves as a hard-earned victory lap, and a suggestion for where SZA might be heading next.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah I’ll let the more astrologically inclined SZAlogists determine what “Saturn” truly portends about her new era — for me, mostly sounds like a very strong leftover.

Christine Werthman: “Saturn” comfortably floats alongside the other SOS tracks, with its atmospheric vibe — but it takes a whimsical turn, largely thanks to the arpeggiated, harp-like melody running underneath. I also like the idea of SZA looking out into the universe and demanding more for herself, as she sings, “There’s got to be more, got to be more.” 

3. Do you see “Saturn” becoming a long-lasting hit like the biggest SOS singles, or do you think interest in it will mostly recede from here (at least until the full Lana release)? 

Hannah Dailey: I’m not sure how far “Saturn” will travel, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up being a slow burn hit akin to “Snooze.” It doesn’t make a huge lyrical or melodic statement the way “Kill Bill” did, but the song’s stacked harmonies and psychedelic vibes make it super replay-worthy and I can see the lyrics being full of opportunities for TikTok trends. 

Kyle Denis: I think it all depends on how invested she and her label are in this song. There was really fervent interest in “Saturn” when the commercial first aired, so now it’s time to capture that energy and stoke it with a music video and a radio push if a long-lasting hit is the goal here.

Jason Lipshutz: “Saturn” has snuck up on me — on first listen, I thought it would be a bonus track that fades into the ether of her greater discography, but its ethereal production, halting pre-chorus and far-reaching hook have called me back for more repeat listens than expected. I shouldn’t be surprised, though, since neither “Kill Bill” or “Snooze” were immediate standouts for me on SOS, and now sound positively indispensable in telling the story of SZA and her sophomore album. Who knows if “Saturn” can run in the top 10 for months like “Kill Bill” and “Snooze” have, but at this point, I’m willing to bet that it’s another pretty big hit.

Andrew Unterberger: If there’s one thing we should have learned about SZA by now, it’s that she doesn’t really do flash-in-the-pan hits — she does long, slow braises. Without a major viral moment to continue its immediate acceleration, “Saturn” may fall back some from its initial debut, but it ain’t going away anytime soon: This thing will slowly but surely burrow its way into the hearts and playlists of listeners and radio programmers, just like the last 47 SZA singles have.

Christine Werthman: I think it has the potential to endure, especially in a live performance. I imagine hearing it in a show, those twinkling notes offering a reprieve from some of the more bass-heavy songs, cuing a shift in the lighting — a gentle disruptor in the setlist. “Saturn” is light on its feet, and there’s not a ton of that in SZA’s repertoire, so I think it has a solid place in the catalog. 

4. Speaking of those biggest SOS hits — “Snooze” is still in the Hot 100’s top 10 this week, its 24th week in the region, and 63rd on the Hot 100 in general. We’re officially out of fan-favorite sleeper hit territory now — do you think we’ll remember it as a career-defining smash for SZA? 

Hannah Dailey: Absolutely. The ability to score a guns-blazing hit single is just as impressive as crafting a song that sneaks up on people with its longevity, and “Snooze” has proved that SZA is an ultimate superstar capable of both. In that way, “Snooze” is just as much a testament to her legacy as “Kill Bill.” 

Kyle Denis: Easily. I’d even go as far as to say that for a sizable number of listeners, “Snooze” has long surpassed “Kill Bill” as the quintessential SOS song. In fact, there’s a strong argument to name “Snooze” as the defining SZA song, period.

Jason Lipshutz: Obviously “Kill Bill” acted as the breakout hit of SOS and became SZA’s first Hot 100 chart-topper, but “Snooze” has helped sustain the chart run of the album for several more months and is still going strong more than a year after its release. “Snooze” is more subtle than “Kill Bill” but no less sumptuous, and features one of SZA’s most vulnerable SOS vocal performances; it’s not the most immediate choice for a multi-quadrant smash, but that’s where it’s ended up, and deservedly so. When we look back at SZA’s career as a hitmaker, “Snooze” will be crucial in telling her story.

Andrew Unterberger: It was nowhere near immediate, but now it seems head-smackingly obvious that “Snooze” was destined for all-time greatness — very arguably the defining R&B smash of the 2020s thus far. It’s increasingly clear that SZA is not an artist whose work (or whose impact) can be judged without the benefit of months (maybe years) of hindsight. In fact, if you want to disregard pretty much everything we’re saying here about “Saturn” a week and change after its release, we couldn’t really blame you.

Christine Werthman: I truly did not expect “Snooze” to blow up when I first heard it on SOS. Shows how much I know. So, do I think “Snooze” will be remembered as a career-defining smash? I mean, originally, no, but now, yes?! Here’s my case for it: super chill, romantic song, plus a spicy, cameo-filled music video, all combining to fuel its longevity. Hindsight is 20/20, people.  

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5. What’s something you’d like to hear or see from SZA during the rest of the Lana rollout?  

Hannah Dailey: I’ll be most impressed if Lana can add to the story of SOS, or make us revisit SOS in a new, unexpected way. There’s no doubt that the songs on Lana will be good, I just hope they don’t sound like a handful of random tracks that simply didn’t make the cut the first time around.

Kyle Denis: I’d like to be super surprised and hear new tracks that we haven’t gotten snippets or leaks of yet. I also think it would be really fun to put out a version of “F2F” with a little more Lizzo. She’s already in the credits there and the two have made magic before with the “Special” remix, so that would be a welcome addition to Lana.

Jason Lipshutz: Give me an even harder pivot towards pop-punk than “F2F” — something that wouldn’t sound out of place at Warped Tour. I adore “F2F” and would love for SZA to dive even deeper down that rabbit hole, if only for one song on a deluxe-edition release. Call up Travis Barker and let’s get rolling!

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t say this about many R&B artists, but I’d love to see SZA do a classic cover or two. She’s such a new-school R&B singer-songwriter, and her greatness is so wrapped up in her lyrical relatability, but what older songs does she wish she had originally penned or performed? What would her version of Erykah Badu’s “On & On” sound like? 112’s “Cupid”? Shawn Colvin’s “Sunny Came Home”? I hesitate to even predict, since I’m sure she’d go a completely different direction than what I’d expect — but regardless, I’d love to hear where that would take her.

Christine Werthman: I’m down for more SZA in space: dreamy, ethereal, but still weighted by her no-BS lyricism. The best of both planes. 

If you thought Kanye West‘s time in the mainstream was done following his most recent and most impactful round of controversies — wearing a “White Lives Matter” shirt and making repeat antisemitic comments (which has since posted a public apology in Hebrew for), among other offenses — the reception for new album Vultures 1 should dissuade you of that notion pretty quickly.

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Vultures, co-credited to West and longtime collaborator Ty Dolla $ign, debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week — moving 148,000 equivalent album units, despite missing all of that tracking week’s Friday (and some of its Saturday) with the messy rollout of its release, and drawing a mostly favorable response from longtime fans (though more mixed notices from critics). In addition, the album lands all 16 of its tracks on this week’s Billboard Hot 100 chart, led by the No. 3-bowing “Carnival,” which seems well on its way to being the album’s breakout hit.

Is the largely positive reception justified? And what does the debut mean for Kanye’s comeback? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 1 debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 148,000 first-week units. On a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think Ye and Ty should be with that debut number?

Kyle Denis: 8. For Ty, this is his first No. 1 album and the biggest sales week of his career – it doesn’t get much better than that. For Kanye, I have to imagine that this feels like a triumph. Vultures I suffered numerous delays, got yanked from DSPs mid-tracking week and served as his first attempt at an independent release. Despite all those challenges – and the general cooling on Kanye the Artist™ in the wake of his string of antisemitic comments and hate speech – he still scored his 11th No. 1 album and shifted nearly 150,000 units in a week. Nonetheless, we can’t ignore that audiences aren’t consuming Vultures as voraciously as they have Kanye’s previous solo albums – 2018’s ye, 2019’s Jesus Is King and 2021’s Donda – all of which crossed the 200,000 units mark in their first week of release. 

Carl Lamarre: If I’m Ty Dolla $ign, I’m ecstatic and through the roof. So, I’m flying high at a 10 if I’m him, considering this is his first-ever No. 1 on the Billboard 200. If I’m Kanye, I’m probably at an 8.5-9. I bumped Ye’s points down because I’m thinking about Mr. West’s ego and fragile psyche. Though this is his 11th consecutive No. 1 on the Billboard 200, this is Ye’s lowest opening week of his career (Kids See Ghosts did 142,000 but was billed as to its eponymous group with Kid Cudi in 2018). 2019’s Jesus Is King landed at 264,000 equivalent album units, while 2021’s Donda netted 309,000 equivalent album units. I don’t think Ye will lose sleep over the drop-off, especially after nailing a No. 1 album independently amid his antisemitic comments. For now, I’m sure Mr. West feels Teflon. 

Michael Saponara: 10. I think as long as they were well into six-figure sales and debuted at No. 1 this was a major victory for Ye and Ty – especially with the project being released independently and facing sampling and distributor issues messing with its availability on streamers throughout the week.

Damien Scott: Ye and Ty should be happy that Vultures 1 debuted at No. 1. Putting aside all the pump fakes on release day, which saw the album being taken down and re-posted on various streaming services, Ye’s acidic language and antics over the past year or so turned himself and anyone who associated with him radioactive. So, there was no telling how people would respond to a new project from him, especially one that’s been so sloppily rolled out. The lukewarm reception to the album’s advance title track didn’t help matters. So, I’ll say 10 — this is about as good as things could have went for Ye and Ty.

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say an 8. It’s not the kind of head-turning number West pulled up with previous releases — some of which were much less commercial-sounding than this — but it’s still an A-list number for 2024, especially in an incomplete first week. For a guy who’s spent the past few years being as toxic as Ye has, I’m sure even that level of embrace feels like a major win. (And obviously Ty should be thrilled with his first-ever No. 1 on the 200, even though it feels like he’s getting it in more of a supporting role.)

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2. In addition to the album debuting at No. 1, the album’s focus track “Carnival” debuts at No. 3 on the Hot 100, the highest-charting single for either artist this decade. Do you see it being a long-lasting hit, or will it fade relatively quickly following its bow? 

Kyle Denis: I think it will probably stick around the upper half of the chart should its streams remain consistent. “Carnival” is a song that works best live, so should a tour follow the duo’s Rolling Loud date, Kanye and Ty could have a genuine smash on their hands. On the other hand, “Do It” stands out as a possible hit thanks to that “Back That Azz Up” interpolation, as does the North West-assisted “Talking,” but that’s already had its day in the sun. 

Carl Lamarre: I can see “Carnival” in the top 20 for the next few weeks, especially with Kanye and Ty taking Vultures on the road with their upcoming headlining performance at Rolling Loud. We haven’t seen many new hip-hop songs crash the top 20 this year except 21 Savage’s “Redrum” and Flo Milli’s “Never Lose Me.” With the fierce combination of Ye, Dolla $, Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid, this song will be living at the top of the playlists for ragers and mosh-pit fanatics, especially with festival season underway.

Michael Saponara: Getting added to RapCaviar after having the most-streamed song of the week is a positive development in that regard, as Ye has been pretty much shut out of any radio play thus far with Vultures 1. If he does deliver on second and third volumes of Vultures, I believe “Carnival” will get washed ashore, but it’s far from a guarantee another batch West and Ty Dolla tunes are on the way in the coming weeks. 

Damien Scott: A few factors make it difficult to predict whether “Carnival” will stay on the charts or not. The biggest one is Ye’s unpredictability when it comes to following through with any plans he’s shared with the public. Judging from social media it seems like his team is going to try to capitalize on the moment by trying to institute a challenge and maybe shooting a video. But who knows. He could just as easily forget about the whole album and move onto Vultures 2 or whatever he wants to do next.

Andrew Unterberger: Certainly sounds like a smash to me. For better or worse.

3. Though critics’ takes have been mixed, Vultures seems to have the strongest reception among Kanye fans perhaps since The Life of Pablo. Do you see this album as a true return to form for Ye, or is that reception more a testament to the quality of his other recent releases? 

Kyle Denis: An album whose best tracks can barely stand shoulder-to-shoulder with most of The Life of Pablo is simply not a true return to form for Ye. I think the messy, sprawling tracklists and middling dips into different genres on his last few projects make Vultures feel like a promise of pre-2018 Kanye… but this is not that. While there are flashes of brilliance on the record, Vultures feels too redundant to be a great Kanye West record. 

Carl Lamarre: Lyrically, this was a porous showing by Ye compared to previous projects. Donda was a very slept-on album. Shed the fat and cut down the tracks by a few, and you have unquestionably one of the decade’s strongest hip-hop albums. As for the current album at hand, Ye’s production prowess remains God Level and is one of the reasons why he skates through the controversies. Anybody can be a beatmaker, but Ye’s musical arrangements, placement of guests, and usage of Ty’s voice as the lead instrument for Vultures made this album a solid showing. 

Michael Saponara: It’s a return to form in the fact this is the most “finished” body of work Ye has had since TLOP. He achieved the balance of having Vultures act as a fit inside the 2024 rap zeitgeist while also still being a sonic pioneer and curator for others to catch up to. I just have a tough time comparing Vultures to albums from well over a decade ago in West’s discography and think it’s an unfair bar to set.

Damien Scott: I don’t think Ye ever lost his form. He’s taken a bunch of diversions and clearly lost focus for a long moment. But I don’t think he ever forgot how to make music. Donda was a bloated mess of an album that had a bunch of half-finished sketches and ideas, but mixed in among those skeletons were moments of real brilliance. Vultures 1 is his most focused work since in years— all the songs are complete and seemingly finished; and the tracklist is not an unruly 20+ songs. The whole thing seems more considered than anything he’s released since TLOP.

Andrew Unterberger: Front to back, it’s probably both his most-satisfying and least-interesting album since Pablo. Like most of that album, Vultures feels sonically enveloping and masterful but lyrically sneering and obnoxious. For all hate that Ye got, give me a song as difficult and revealing as “I Thought About Killing You” or “Ghost Town” over pretty much any of the pit-starting anthems here.

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4. Despite being a co-billed artist on Vultures, Ty Dolla $ign has largely been relegated to a supporting role by most discussions of the album. Do you think it’s fair to mostly treat this as a Kanye album, or does that shortchange Ty’s contributions to the project? 

Kyle Denis: Kanye is clearly a more dominant vocal presence on Vultures, but Ty’s contributions are just as interesting and important. However, I find it more pressing to think about Ty’s involvement from a marketing/cultural standpoint. There’s a reason that Kanye did not return with a solo album. There’s a reason that he chose Ty Dolla $ign to embark on this journey alongside, and there’s a reason Ty agreed to the ride. We’re aware that Kanye is probably the most controversial mainstream musician in the world, so for his first full-length project since his worst phase of public perception yet to be a joint record is intriguing. To a certain extent, Kanye needed a less polarizing name attached to the record, but how does Ty reconcile the music with Kanye’s past few years?

Vultures may sound more like a Kanye solo album than a proper collaborative project, but we would be remiss not to properly grapple with the record in the way it was presented to us. 

Carl Lamarre: It’s what I said in answer No. 3: Ye is undoubtedly the conductor of this train. It goes beyond raps because he weaves in Ty and fits him in certain pockets. Ty is elite, but his bread and butter have always been hooks and features. What I would love to see for Ty — so his career doesn’t strictly lead with being Kanye’s sidekick — is having his next solo album executive-produced by Ye. That would be most beneficial for him as a solo artist. 

Michael Saponara: From a cultural standpoint, West was always going to dominate the conversation with all of the controversy surrounding him for the last couple of years. As for the music, Ty deserves a ton of credit for steering the ship at times and keeping Ye from going creatively off the rails on some tracks. West and Ty have proven to be cerebral collaborators and have a propensity to bring the best out of those they’re working with.

Damien Scott: I think that shortchanges Ty’s contributions to the album. The album is unmistakably a Kanye project in fit and finish. It’s kind of trippy listening to it because it’s an ouroboros of Ye musical history. All of the sounds and styles were originated or popularized by Ye at some point over the past 20 years, whether it’s the stripped down industrial maximalism of Yeezus or warm soulful bounce of TCD. It’s all here. But Ty does a good bit of heavy lifting, keeping the album balanced, making it more palatable and grounded than if Ye was left to his own devices. That must have been a tough task.

Andrew Unterberger: Love Ty and he is a welcome presence for much of Vultures — but the number of co-stars who could stand next to a personality as huge and self-centering as Kanye’s and not get chewed up along with the rest of the scenery is a short one, and does not include him.

5. West has obviously dealt with a tremendous amount of backlash in the past few years given his recent inflammatory statements and controversies. What does the debut of Vultures say to you about Kanye’s current standing in the mainstream, and how it’s changed in recent years (if at all)? 

Kyle Denis: To me, Vultures shows that Kanye is too big to disappear – at least for right now. He’ll always have an audience, and the ratio of dedicated fans to nosy detractors will fluctuate in tandem with his public perception. Moreover, Vultures could be a signal that people are generally weary of Kanye and his shenanigans. Even with its bevy of release-week controversies, Vultures didn’t feel as culturally dominant as Donda or Pablo or even Jesus Is King, to a lesser extent. Of course, these aren’t 1:1 comparisons, so maybe we will have to wait and see how the other two Vultures projects fare.

Carl Lamarre: No matter how deep Kanye sinks, fans will continue to throw him a life raft. Many have chucked deuces to Mr. West after his “slavery is a choice” and anti-semitic comments. Deservingly so, Ye lost endorsements and fans for his ignorance and hateful comments. Still, his legions of fans find ways to separate the art from the artist and come in droves every time a new album drops. That speaks to Ye’s musical career and its lasting impact on many people, especially as he’s now two decades deep into it.

Michael Saponara: It speaks loudly to those who have supported him and will continue to do so with an imaginary line being drawn in the sand. There’s still clearly a massive appetite for Ye, as Rolling Loud added an extra day for him and Ty Dolla $ign to perform next month. That doesn’t seem like it’s destined to change in the near future either, as long as the music/clothing remains up to par and culturally influential. What’s different is the scale at which he operates now creating independently, without the backing of industry titans such as Universal, Adidas and Balenciaga.

Damien Scott: While Vultures 1 went No. 1, it didn’t perform nearly as well as Donda. For example, it was the most streamed album in 24 hours on Spotify in 2021. This isn’t that. His antics and statements have done a good deal of irreversible damage. He’s still a massively famous artist, though — one who hasn’t performed live regularly in a long time, so it’s not surprising to see fans clamoring to see him in concert and at Rolling Loud. That said, I don’t think Vultures has done much to change his standing in the mainstream. But Ye has. His recent apology and his renewed focus on his music and apparel makes it seem as if he’s turned a corner. How long that will last is anyone’s guess.

Andrew Unterberger: Kanye was never going to totally disappear from the mainstream until he actively chose to do so. If nothing else, the more crowd-pleasing nature of Vultures (and the mild contrition he showed in advance of its release) shows that even as a now-independent artist, Ye has no interest in operating at the fringes — he still wants to be in a place to move the culture. It shouldn’t be particularly surprising to anyone that he still can.

Ariana Grande is back: After three years of relative quiet (outside of a chart-topping Weeknd collab here or there), the pop superstar returned earlier this month with the lead single from her upcoming Eternal Sunshine album, “Yes, And?”

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The house-flavored new song, offered largely in response to gossip about her personal life and body image in the intervening years, debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, edging past Jack Harlow’s reigning champ “Lovin on Me.” The song was helped over the top by a variety of remixes and edits, which assisted the song’s 2024-best sales debut (53,000).

What does Grande’s new song portend about her new era? And will the song stick around for a long time to come? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. “Yes, And?” debuts atop the Billboard Hot 100, albeit in a closer race with second-place-finisher “Lovin on Me” than some might have expected. Do you expect the song to be a long-lasting top pop hit, or more of a quick re-introduction of Grande’s new era before the rest of the Eternal Sunshine rollout?

Rania Aniftos: Grande’s standout hits from her albums are rarely the lead single, and I think that will probably be the case with Eternal Sunshine as well. I’m hoping for a less controversial track that actually represents the growth that Ari sees in herself over the next few weeks, and I hope that’s the one that stands the test of time!

Kyle Denis: I think this is definitely more of a quick re-introduction of Grande to the pop music scene. Rumors are already swirling about a new single arriving as early as next month, so I’d imagine we get at least one more taste of the album before March 8. With that being said, I also don’t think “Yes, And?” will freefall down the Hot 100. I doubt it spends multiple weeks at No. 1, but once it hits its stride on radio, it should end up being a solid hit that likely follows a similar chart run to her own “No Tears Left to Cry.”

Joe Lynch: I don’t see it being an ongoing threat for the No. 1 spot in the way that “Thank U, Next” and “7 Rings” dominated, but when it comes to Ari’s Hot 100-toppers, even a song like the Justin Bieber collab “Stuck With U” – probably her least beloved single to top the Hot 100 – remained on that chart for 18 weeks. She has an amazing voice that’s well-suited to the current radio landscape and she streams well, so I expect it to stick around… but would be surprised to see it at No. 1 for more than 2 weeks in total.  

Meghan Mahar: I think that “Yes, And?” has the potential to become a more dominant No. 1 over “Lovin on Me,” but it ultimately serves as a safe introduction to her Eternal Sunshine era. Historically, dance and dance-adjacent hits have performed well for Grande — but I feel that this was an opportune time to release a song like “Yes, And?” that is lighthearted and club-friendly. There has been a clear demand for these songs, as we’ve seen with the success of releases including David Guetta and Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue),” Troye Sivan’s “Rush,” and Dua Lipa’s “Houdini.”

Andrew Unterberger: It seems likely to me to follow a “Vampire”-type trajectory: Just the one week on top, but at least a handful in the top 10, and a long run in the top 40 as radio picks up on it. Not an era-defining smash, but big enough to re-announce Grande’s presence with authority as needed.

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2. It’s already been over three years since the release of her most recent album, 2020’s Positions. Do you think Grande’s returning to pop music in 2024 in stronger, weaker or about the same standing as when she left?

Rania Aniftos: It’s a tough question, because while musically, she’s returning to pop in an equally powerful place as she left it, her public image has been a bit compromised over the past year due to headlines surrounding her relationship. I’ve already been seeing fan reactions to the song, expressing disappointment at the sentiment despite liking how catchy the track is — with longtime supporters feeling uncomfortable giving her streams and listening to the song. If she can gracefully navigate the personal aspects of her public perception, I think she’s geared up to create a Thank U, Next-like splash with her upcoming album.

Kyle Denis: Stronger. Although the split opinions regarding her romantic life are incredibly loud on the Internet, Grande is returning to the scene as an elder stateswoman of sorts. Last year, she celebrated the ten-year anniversary of her pop recording career, she has a blockbuster film (Wicked: Part One) on the horizon, and she already had five No. 1 hits this decade before “Yes, And?” was announced. You’d be hard-pressed to find a post-Grande pop star who can match her string of quality hit singles over the past decade – and that’s why her absence was so deeply felt. Just five years ago, Grande’s name was among the list of stars who had countless hits and no Hot 100 chart-toppers. Now, she’s expected to debut at No. 1 practically every time she releases music. If that doesn’t make it clear how much her position in pop’s hierarchy has changed, I don’t know what would!

Joe Lynch: Pop is such a youth-oriented (youth-obsessed, really) market that it’s hard to pretend like four years is nothing — and yet, did she really go away? Ten months ago, she topped the Hot 100 with the Weeknd duet “Die For You,” and her modern seasonal staple (“Santa Tell Me”) reached an all-time peak this month. It might be a new era, but don’t call it a comeback. Within a couple percentage points for error, I would say she’s as strong as when Positions dropped. 

Meghan Mahar: Stronger. Headlines about Grande in the time since Positions, whether they were about her relationships or teasers of her work on Wicked, kept her in the news cycle and fueled interest in her next project. What truly gives her a competitive edge, though, is the public’s need for a pop superstar. Many have released successful projects and grown to great heights over the past few years, but none have Grande’s artistic vision and vocal capabilities.

Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a little stronger. It’s hard to remember the last time a pop star was as palpably missed in the top 40 world as Ariana has been in her relative absence — if the popularity of Tate McRae’s “Greedy” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Nonsense” year were any indication, fans were practically champing at the bit for Grande-sized radio singles. Maybe some fans have turned on her, but as Doja Cat has proven multiple times this decade, hits solve just about everything — and Grande has never been in short supply of those.

3. “Yes, And?” adopts a fairly house-forward sound for Grande, resulting in her first-ever No. 1 on the Dance/Electronic Songs Chart. Do you think that foreshadows a full pivot to dance with Eternal Sunshine — and do you hope it does?

Rania Aniftos: I do! It’s a fun pivot for an artist who has been around for more than a decade at this point. It keeps things fresh, not only for her but also for her fans, and it plays on the nostalgia trend in music lately due to its 80s sound. With a name like Eternal Sunshine, she has to have some fun on this album, right?

Kyle Denis: No. In the same way that “Dangerous Woman” didn’t foreshadow an album of theatrical pop bangers and “No Tears” didn’t preview an LP filled with U.K. garage-inflected anthems, I don’t think “Yes, And?” is signaling a full dance pivot. Not to mention, Grande has dabbled with this sound before (2016’s “Be Alright”), so it isn’t exactly new for her. I think Eternal Sunshine will blend the best of her capabilities across pop and R&B like each of her last six efforts. Even though I’m not necessarily hoping for Eternal Sunshine to be a full dance record, I’ll gladly embrace it should that end up being the case.

Joe Lynch: Dance Ariana has always been one of my favorite Arianas (“Break Free” is GOAT) but the house-forward sound did surprise me a bit, simply because two major artists (Beyoncé and Drake) boosted that sound back to the wider public in 2022. I’m never angry at hearing house music, but it does seem like she’s following a trend on this one. So while I’d celebrate a dance LP, I’m hoping there are some sonic surprises afoot that push pop forward.   

Meghan Mahar: As much as I would personally love a full dance record, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Grande has had several dance and dance-adjacent tracks in the past: “Break Free” with Zedd (2014) and “Into You” (2016) came to mind when I heard “Yes, And?” and both came from albums with a solid range of sounds. The success of “Rain on Me” with Lady Gaga (another No. 1 debut) was likely a factor that informed the release of this song. I feel that “Yes, And?” foreshadows Grande referencing her past sounds and eras, but from a more mature place in her life.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s hard for me to see Grande going full club energy for a full album. Not that she couldn’t pull it off, but her truest sweet spot to me is still in the cozy confines of a soul-pop ballad or midtempo number, and I don’t think she’d want to limit herself strictly to the upper BPM ranges for all of Eternal Sunshine. I’m betting this song basically serves for its parent album as “No Tears Left to Cry” did for Sweetener: a blast to kick off her new era, which ultimately proves to forecast only a small bit of what the rest of the album has to offer.

4. The chart-topping debut for “Yes, And?” gives Max Martin his 24th No. 1 as a producer, moving him into sole possession of the all-time record. Do you think anyone will pass his mark anytime soon?

Rania Aniftos: Unless Mariah Carey enters a production-focused era of her career, I really doubt it. He’s dominating by a landslide among producers who are alive. 

Kyle Denis: I think this record is Max Martin’s to keep for a long while. Should Dr. Luke continue to find work despite his public fall from grace, it’s possible he will catch up to him. Nonetheless, I don’t think the producer who passes Max’s mark has gotten their start yet.

Joe Lynch: Well, I don’t think his runner-up (George Martin) is going to prove much competition in the 2020s, but Dr. Luke – who has produced or co-produced 18 No. 1s – could narrow the gap in the upcoming years. Even so, I think it’s pretty unlikely that anyone that he, or anyone, will take the lead from Max in the next five to 10 years.  

Meghan Mahar: No— the first runner up, Dr. Luke, is 6 songs behind Martin’s 24 No. 1 record and Martin is not showing any signs of slowing down. In recent times, it seems as if Dr. Luke has been working with a wider variety of artists, whereas Martin has committed more time to projects with a smaller roster. Martin’s strategy has paid off and aligned him with superstars and some of their best projects, like Taylor Swift’s 1989 (2014) and The Weeknd’s Dawn FM (2022). Securing this level of prestige takes a career lifetime to achieve.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s Martin’s to lose. You could look at someone like Jack Antonoff and think “Well, if he stays as Taylor Swift’s go-to guy for the rest of the decade, could that alone be enough to get him there?” But as ubiquitous as Antonoff has seemed for nearly a decade now, he still only has five No. 1s to his name — which means he’d need about three a year from now until 2030 to beat Martin’s current total. Not impossible, but the head start that Martin has amassed in his near-30-year career — and he ain’t done yet — is not a gap that anyone will be able to bridge without putting in decades of their own high-level work. And probably not then, either.

5. What’s one thing not really covered by “Yes, And?” that you’d like to hear or see from Ariana Grande on this new album and its accompanying promotional cycle?

Rania Aniftos: I don’t know if this necessarily answers the question, but I love how involved Jim Carrey was on The Weeknd’s Dawn FM, and since Eternal Sunshine got its name from Carrey’s 2004 film, it only makes sense for him to be on the album in some capacity. 

Kyle Denis: While “Yes, And?” is a great encapsulation of IDGAF energy, I’d like to hear more about what’s been going through Grande’s head ever since Positions. What has it been like filming your dream role (Glinda in Wicked)? How have you dealt with all the internal and external pressures that come with such an endeavor? In the past few years, it’s clear Grande has done a lot of growing up. From her wardrobe and general demeanor to her overall aesthetic and relationship with social media, she’s clearly matured a lot. And, of course, she went through a divorce in the public eye while juggling her music and acting careers; I’d love to see her dig into those concepts and emotions on Eternal Sunshine, which, judging by the title’s allusion to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, she just might do.

From a purely musical standpoint, I think I’m most intrigued to hear how Wicked has impacted her approach to singing and songwriting. Could another “Jason’s Song” be on the way? I certainly hope so!

Joe Lynch: I’m not saying I want to hear a dance remix of “Popular” on her album, but with the Wicked adaptations occupying so much of her recent time, I’m champing at the bit to see Grande in full-on theater kid mode as she hits the late-night promo cycle. (Shout-out to her performance in 2016’s Hairspray Live!) Do theater kids run the risk of being a bit irritating? Of course. But she’s practically a national icon. Let her hit. 

Meghan Mahar: I love how Grande has showcased her versatility across her discography, but my favorite songs are the R&B selects and ballads. Her vocal range emphasizes the passion behind her lyrics, whether they be about being deeply in love (“pov”) or in deep pain (“ghostin”). “Yes, And?” is such a fun, carefree track — and I love this! It makes me want to dance with my friends in the club — but I also love a good cry. Her musical vulnerability, paired with behind-the-scenes content or stunning visuals (like the “pov” Vevo performance) in the promo cycle, would further cement her range. 

Andrew Unterberger: Ariana Grande has spent most of her career making pop for the bedroom — would she ever consider going full bedroom pop? Would love to hear working with Girl in Red. A Laufey duet could be dope. And how the hell have she and Billie Eilish (an avowed longtime Grande fan) still never worked together?

It may not officially be stick season anymore — the New England-area expression refers to the late fall, before the winter snow hits — but you certainly wouldn’t know it from looking at the Billboard charts.

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On the Billboard 200, alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan‘s Stick Season album climbs back up to No. 5, having previously hit No. 3 last June. Meanwhile, its title track climbs 18-14 on the Billboard Hot 100, resulting in a new peak for the set’s lead single, which was originally released back in August 2022.

How has Kahan continued to grow his breakout LP this long into its album cycle? And how much further should he keep trying to maximize its impact before he officially changes seasons? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. Stick Season returns to the top 5 of the Billboard 200 this week — 15 months after first debuting on the chart and six months after peaking at No. 3 with the release of its We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe edition. What would you point to as the primary reason that the album is still doing so well this late in its run? 

Eric Renner Brown: The steady drip of remixes has kept Stick Season in the cultural consciousness, while exposing Kahan to new fanbases. Kahan’s prominence in the discourse only continues to grow, by way of his high billings on festival lineups and his December turn as Saturday Night Live‘s musical guest, putting him on the radar of still more consumers. And fall just ended – prime time for our autumnal alt-folk king.

Hannah Dailey: I can’t remember the last time another artist approached collaborations with as much consistency and volume as Noah Kahan has, but every month since September he’s been giving new life to songs from the album by inviting other musicians to duet on them – Lizzy McAlpine, Kacey Musgraves, Gracie Abrams, Hozier, and next up, Sam Fender’s remix of “Homesick,” set for Friday (Jan. 19). This draws new listeners from other fanbases into the album while keeping his own fans excited about the material.

Kyle Denis: I’d have to say it’s Noah’s commitment to working the album. A lot of his contemporaries tend to abandon albums and eras after 1-2 singles, and some of them pump out multiple LPs within a calendar year. While he’s kept a steady stream of new releases, they’ve almost all been additions to the Stick Season universe. His strategy of updating the album’s songs by way of duets with different artists is doubly effective: His core fans have another incentive to revisit the album, and listeners who may only be familiar with the featured artist have a reason to check out Stick Season. 

Lyndsey Havens: I can’t quite recall the last time an artist has done so well at staying spotlight-adjacent. It’s a fine line to walk between staying top-of-mind and over-saturation to the point of turning fans away, and Kahan has done it perfectly. Since the release of the album’s deluxe edition, he has continued to churn out clever collaborations. He’s performed on Saturday Night Live and his name keeps popping up on summer festival bills. All of that would be enough on its own, I think. But then when you also consider the time of year – winter, in many parts of the country – Stick Season was made for this moment. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a combination of holiday streams and the usual slow start to a new year in terms of major new releases that have helped push this album back up the chart.

Andrew Unterberger: Kahan has done the most valuable thing you can do as a singer-songwriter enjoying a breakout moment in 2024 — built a whole world around his project. Between the reissues, the remixes, the live performances, the social media posting and teasing and the coherent, specific recurring lyrical themes, Kahan has made Stick Season into something more than just an album. How many other alt-folk singer-songwriters have you ever talked about in terms of “album eras”? (Well, outside of You Know Who in 2020.)

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2. The set’s title track also climbs inside the top 15 of the Hot 100 this week, reaching a new peak of No. 14 a full year and a half after its July 2022 release. Why do you think the song continues to grow, even after so many other subsequent singles from Stick Season have been released and promoted in the meantime? 

Eric Renner Brown: “Stick Season” is Stick Season‘s title track because it’s an encapsulation of the album and Kahan’s Whole Thing: The verses are intimate (and timely, given the COVID reference), the choruses are propulsive and anthemic, and, naturally, it’s about autumn. He knocked the song’s performance on Saturday Night Live out of the park, too. It’s fascinating to me that Kahan’s highest-charting Hot 100 success as lead artist is the one single he didn’t release a remix of with a famous guest.

Hannah Dailey: When a song is both catchy and well-written, there’s no limit to how far it can go. Noah is simply really talented at writing songs that stick in your brain without you getting sick of them, and that skill really shines on “Stick Season.” It also helps that the song is fairly cynical and self-deprecating, two traits that have become hugely trendy in pop lyrics as of late (as pointed out by our very own Kyle Denis).

Kyle Denis: Honestly, it’s probably the hook. Save “Dial Drunk,” there isn’t a hook as immediately arresting as the title track on Stick Season. Moreover, the song benefits from how different its sound is in comparison to the dominant sounds of the mainstream: Afropop, house music influences, Jersey club, etc. Of course, a years-long TikTok-focused marketing campaign also helped matters; Kahan first teased “Stick Season” back in 2020, finally released the track in 2022 and has continued to relentlessly promote the song even in the midst of subsequent releases. He’s been persistent in pushing the song in a way that has fostered a remarkably intimate relationship between his audience, himself and the song’s lyrics. 

Lyndsey Havens: I suppose it really is the season of the sticks right now. There are certain albums that have a cozy feel to them, and Stick Season definitely delivers – as does its title track. Yet, its genius is that it sounds just as much at home blasting from an amphitheater stage in the warmer months, too. And right now, we’re in that middle ground of wanting to nest while also looking ahead to warmer festival days.

Andrew Unterberger: “Stick Season” may have gone lightly viral back in 2022, but it never really got a full mainstream moment — not like it’s having now, with Kahan now firmly in the spotlight — and continued to plug away at streaming. So now it probably feels like a brand-new hit to a lot of people, and it’s perfectly situated to capitalize on the ground that “Dial Drunk” and its accompanying Post Malone remix broke in establishing Kahan as a top 40 proposition.

3. While many of the tracks on Stick Season have received new remixes co-starring big-name guests, its title track has not yet been so revised. If Kahan wanted to boost “Stick” to the Hot 100’s top 10, who’s an artist you’d advise him to reach out to as a new co-star? 

Eric Renner Brown: Kahan couldn’t have pulled this off earlier in the Stick Season cycle, but now that more people know who he is and he’s staked out some turf of his own: Marcus Mumford. You know you want to, Noah!

Hannah Dailey: Olivia Rodrigo!!! It feels pretty much written in the stars at this point, given how she’s already covered the song and they’ve both publicly said they want to work with each other. Besides her, I’d love to hear Noah’s voice collide with Jeremy Zucker or Bon Iver, or maybe get back in the studio with Chelsea Cutler for a “Crazier Things” sequel. I also think he could make something epic with one or all of the members of Boygenius, of whom he’s said he’s a big fan.

Kyle Denis: I think the obvious choice is Olivia Rodrigo. Her BBC Radio 1 Live Lounge cover of the song garnered millions of likes when it hit TikTok last October; I’d imagine an official duet would pull in some monster streams. 

Lyndsey Havens: Oh, it would have to be Olivia. She already knows the song, as evidenced by her cover for BBC Radio 1 Live Lounge, and the two artists have made their fandom for the other clear. I’d say it’s only a matter of time. 

Andrew Unterberger: Rodrigo is no doubt the home-run choice — but if the busy (and traditionally remix-averse) Rodrigo is unavailable, how about going a little more old-school with Adult Alternative fixture Ray LaMontagne, arguably New Hampshire’s greatest musical export of the pre-Kahan 21st century? His voice would sound pretty mighty growling that chorus.

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4. With the Stick Season era now being 18 months old and still gaining momentum, would you advise Kahan to keep going with its promotion and revising as long as the album continues to build its audience? Or would it be in his best interest to quit while he’s ahead in the near future and move onto what’s next? 

Eric Renner Brown: The Stick Season era may be 18 months old, but many people have been aware of Kahan for far less time than that. And many people still don’t know who he is at all! Stick Season is a juggernaut and has so many good and successful singles – I think he should continue to ride this wave for as long as he can.

Hannah Dailey: My instinct would be to move onto the next album as soon as possible, while he still has as many eyes on him as he does now. I can’t even imagine how big the hype is going to be for his next project. On the other hand, I think it’s really beautiful how committed he is to seeing Stick Season through with all of his touring, remixes, and social media activity. It shows how much he loves and believes in the album, and how genuinely he appreciates the reception it’s gotten.

Kyle Denis: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I would advise Kahan to continue doing what he’s doing. Nonetheless, if another album track isn’t showing signs of single potential by the time “Stick Season” hits its commercial peak, it might be time to start teasing music from a new project – even if it doesn’t actually materialize for another few years. 

Lyndsey Havens: I say keep going. I really do commend him (and his team) for how well they have balanced this predicament – if you can even call it that – and with festival season ahead, he should continue to lean in. But hey, if he were to toss some new music into the set I wouldn’t be mad.

Andrew Unterberger: This is always the question, isn’t it? It’s tempting to tell him to just keep extending Stick Season for as long as the weather allows, but there is something to be said long-term for pulling back before he absolutely has to, and before he gets forever pigeonholed as The Stick Season Guy. I wouldn’t mind him using 2024 as something of a quasi-gap year — closing out his Stick Season touring and writing intermittently, while maybe keeping his name out there by returning the karmic favor on a couple peer remixes and maybe dropping a one-off single or two. Then in 2025, return in full force with the proper Stick follow-up.

5. With Zach Bryan and Noah Kahan experiencing extended breakout mainstream success in back-to-back years, who’s another rootsy singer-songwriter you might expect to have a similar breakout in 2024?

Eric Renner Brown: Tyler Childers has already amassed a huge live following; he’s headlining arenas and amphitheaters this summer, including two nights at New York’s Madison Square Garden. But he hasn’t had Kahan-level crossover chart success yet – his sole Hot 100 entry, “In Your Love,” peaked at No. 43 in August, even if it did also rack up three nominations at the upcoming Grammys. Childers is a bit more traditionally country than Bryan, who draws on rock sounds, and Kahan, who channels Mumford and Lumineers vibes – but he’s prolific and could hit new heights soon with the right single. 

Hannah Dailey: It’s a band, but I think Mt. Joy could be poised to follow on Noah’s trail. Briston Maroney, too.

Kyle Denis: Yola!

Lyndsey Havens: I’m rooting for Brenn! this year. I think he is walking a similar path as Zach and Bryan, but with a touch more pop sensibility that could help sustain folk music’s resurgence while also widening the fanbase to an even younger demographic.

Andrew Unterberger: Not the boldest prediction perhaps — you can currently find his “Pretty Little Poison” just 16 spots below “Stick Season” on the Hot 100 — but Warren Zeiders seems on the precipice of something pretty major.

Last week, we counted down our Billboard staff picks for the 10 Greatest Pop Stars of 2023. While it was a pretty good year across the board for pop stars showing out at the highest levels, we’d be lying if we said it was ever a particularly close race for No. 1.
It was, after all, Taylor Swift‘s year, pretty much from beginning to end. With three Hot 100 No. 1 singles, two Billboard 200-topping Taylor’s Version re-recordings and a tour expected to end up the highest-grossing in recorded history (and a box office-topping documentary to accompany it), it was an absolute 2023 for the ages for Swift — one whose enormity is almost impossible to put in proper perspective.

Still, we tried this week to answer some of the bigger questions surrounding Swift’s year: How do we try to explain the dominance of it? And can she do it again? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. We were unanimous as a staff in agreeing that Swift was the No. 1 Greatest Pop Star of 2023 — and maybe even that no one else was particularly close. If you were trying to explain to someone what made her year so different (without using stats), what’s the main thing you’d focus on?

Katie Atkinson: Her ubiquity. Whether you’re a day one Swiftie or don’t know a single song (I honestly have no idea how this could happen, but let’s imagine), I guarantee you heard her name at some point this year. Every state she brought her Eras Tour to gave her a queen’s welcome, as she transformed local economies in her wake. And if you somehow missed her stadium concert tour, maybe you caught her stadium suite tour as she also infiltrated the NFL. She also released two re-recorded albums and brought two songs (one four years old, one originally conceived nine years ago and one holding over from last year) to No. 1 on the Hot 100. Taylor Swift was completely and utterly unavoidable this year and she somehow found new heights to her already-stratospheric levels of fame and acclaim.

Kyle Denis: Taylor understands pop stardom. She knows that the show doesn’t stop once you’ve stepped off stage, and that’s what made her year so different. From a whirlwind controversial boyfriend (Matty Healy) and a link-up with the year’s hottest new star (Ice Spice) to music videos that expand on her already storied lore (“I Can See You”) and a very public-facing romance with Travis Kelce, Taylor performed pop stardom better than anyone else this decade. Each new occurrence in her personal life came accompanied by a new single, re-release, music video, or tour announcement, further expanding and cementing her hold on the mainstream this year. 

Jason Lipshutz: The best way I could explain it would be to describe Taylor Swift’s place in popular music this year as an all-consuming force that anyone remotely paying attention to pop culture in 2023 was familiar with to some degree. Over the past 20 years, the proliferation of the Internet has weakened the monoculture by giving us more entertainment options to focus on and discuss — but Swift’s cultural standing harkened back to a time when we were all listening to the same hit singles and watching the same things on television, cultural moments that were far-reaching enough to be inescapable. I didn’t think an artist in our current culture could recall a fervor like Beatlemania or the peak of Michael Jackson’s reign; Taylor Swift proved me wrong.

Meghan Mahar: Aside from the money she has earned and records she has broken, Taylor’s No. 1 spot on our Greatest Pop Stars list stems from her cultural ubiquity. She was already a household name but this year, she was truly inescapable, whether you were trying to watch a football game and saw Swift in the stands or saw yet another Swift-soundtracked trend on social media. The Eras Tour gave superfans yet another reason to celebrate their fandom, encouraged new listeners to dive into Swift’s discography, and emboldened fans who may have been a bit shy with their support to be loud and proud. This year, liking Taylor Swift wasn’t just commonplace — it felt cool and exciting to be part of something so massive.

Andrew Unterberger: The thing I keep coming back to is just how much Taylor Swift’s star status this year transcended any one of her hit songs or albums. She had plenty of both of those in 2023, but you didn’t necessarily need to be familiar with any of them to know that she was the biggest pop star in the world having the best year of her career — you just kinda knew from living in the world. It’s not something I ever remember experiencing before, at least not on this level.

2. And if you were using numbers — what’s the one that you think best captures how dominant Taylor Swift was this year?

Katie Atkinson: I’d say our headline last week estimating that Swift grossed almost $2 billion this year from her music, movie, touring and concert merch is about as mind-blowing as it gets. So basically she’s racking up numbers that are akin to the GDP of a small country (we’re looking at you, East Timor).

Kyle Denis: Definitely the fact that she became the first living artist to simultaneously chart five projects in the top 10 of the Billboard 200. It genuinely doesn’t get much more dominant than that. 

Jason Lipshutz: It’s the five albums in the Billboard 200’s top 10, at the conclusion of a year in which Swift did not release a new studio album. Those five included 1989 (Taylor’s Version) and Speak Now (Taylor’s Version), the two re-recorded albums that Swift released this year and spent 5 combined weeks at No. 1; Lover, which included the non-single “Cruel Summer” that Swifties sent to the top of the Hot 100, four years after its release; Folklore, Swift’s 2020 indie-folk pivot which has proven to be one of the most lucrative left turns in pop history; and of course, Midnights, which boasts Swift’s longest-running No. 1 single in “Anti-Hero” and could win the album of the year Grammy in February. Half of the top 10 being Swift albums — all of which posted that chart ranking for a different reason — demonstrates just how massive her year turned out to be.

Meghan Mahar: $838 million: the projected dollar amount of gross ticket sales of the Eras Tour’s U.S. leg in 2023. In a post-pandemic concert boom, Swift made Eras likely the second highest-grossing U.S. tour of all time, only behind the iconic Elton John and his Farewell Yellow Brick Road Tour. This achievement is insane when you consider how far along Elton was in his career when he set this record and how much music he had behind him. Swift is only 34 years old and putting numbers on the board. For scale: according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the median price for a home in the U.S. is $431 thousand dollars. This means that Swift could buy almost 2,000 homes with her U.S. Eras grosses alone.

Andrew Unterberger: The Billboard 200 and tour stats are remarkable, but I go back to the first-week number for 1989 (Taylor’s Version): 1.653 million units. Not only is that the biggest debut week of Swift’s career — bigger than Midnights, bigger than the original 1989 — but it’s a full 1.15 million larger than any week posted by a non-Taylor Swift artist this year. And it’s not even for a new album — it’s for a re-recording, basically a deluxe reissue with some new bonus tracks. In 2021, we were talking about how impressive it was that Fearless (Taylor’s Version) moved 291,000 units in its first week; just two years and three TVs later, she’s doing nearly six times that. It’s mind-boggling.

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3. While Swift had three No. 1 hits and 53 Hot 100 entries this year, it wasn’t necessarily her biggest year in terms of new music. Nonetheless, if you had to define her 2023 in one song of hers, which would it be?

Katie Atkinson: Definitely “Cruel Summer.” The Lover song never had its moment in the sun when it was first released, so it was really magical to watch it become an honest-to-god organic hit four years later, even without a music video or other gimmicks. As the opening song on the Eras Tour setlist, it felt like a celebration of the career-defining trek to have it climb all the way to the top.

Kyle Denis: I think it would still be “Anti-Hero.” It felt like the Swift song people kept returning to despite the subsequent Midnights singles and From the Vault tracks. 

Jason Lipshutz: The obvious choice is “Cruel Summer” — Swift’s commercial enormity, exemplified in a years-belated hit — but I’m going with “Anti-Hero,” not only because it started the year on top and turned into Swift’s longest-leading No. 1 single on the Hot 100, but because it’s one of the best singles of her career, immediately catchy and self-lacerating, steeped in imagery but able to push a phrase like “It’s me, hi, I’m the problem, it’s me” into the cultural lexicon. It’s easy to forget that the centripetal force of Swift’s gargantuan success still has to be great music; the tour, awards, visual projects and general celebrity don’t hit as hard if the hits are subpar. “Anti-Hero” was a revelation in the midst of Midnights, though, and if I’m explaining her recent musical success to someone, I’m starting there.

Meghan Mahar: “Karma.” Swift’s success can be traced back to various factors, whether it’s how she has stayed true to her art, employed brilliant marketing tactics, or built a strong relationship with her fans. However, the two things that stood out to me this year more than ever were how intentional and positive Taylor was with her actions. An artist can’t reach this level of success without being widely loved, and I believe that Taylor has made genuine connections in the industry that continue to fuel her success. Take Kelly Clarkson, for example, who suggested that Swift re-record her older works, laying the groundwork for all the Taylor’s Version releases. “Karma” is how Taylor turned a bad situation into everything her “eras” have become, including nearly $2 billion grossed across merchandise, movie tickets, and music sales.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s gotta be “Karma” for me — the Ice Spice remix, the Eras Tour debut, the general victory-lappy vibe of it all. It won’t go down as her most beloved song from this period, but it’s the first one I’ll think of when recalling what the era felt like.

4. Is there anyone else currently impacting the pop mainstream who, if they do absolutely everything right from here, you think might one day be capable of a year comparable to Swift’s 2023?

Katie Atkinson: Whew. It’s hard to imagine, but it feels like the start of Billie Eilish and Olivia Rodrigo’s careers mirror some of the hallmarks of Swift’s beginning – like starting out as a teenager, racking up both commercial and critical success. They’re building bases that could possibly rise to that level is everything is nurtured and continues at this A-list pace. But even then, it’s hard to imagine another pop star who is going to reach their commercial peak at age 34 like Swift has accomplished. And who knows? She could go higher.

Kyle Denis: Olivia Rodrigo. Her fan base is still relatively young so she can spend the next few years cultivating a special relationship with them to lay the foundation for a year like Swift’s one day. Her music and brand also have a comparable reach to Taylor’s, which will make it easier for her to reach those kinds of commercial heights. 

Jason Lipshutz: Not really? The two names that come to mind immediately, Adele and Drake, could release hits-packed commercial juggernauts, and possess the back catalogs to mount in-demand tours… but even if everything did go right in that promotional blitz, they probably couldn’t muster the level of all-out cultural fascination that Taylor Swift has reached. These runs come along once in a generation, so I’d guess that, if another artist could in fact replicate Swift’s 2023, we haven’t met them yet.

Meghan Mahar: There are two major keys to success that an artist would need to reach Swift’s level of 2023 success: a consistently rich, impactful discography and a wide-reaching, highly-favored public persona. Based on these criteria, I think the only pop star who’s fully active at the moment who can truly be in the conversation is Beyoncé. While she didn’t have as big a year as Taylor by the numbers, Renaissance and its corresponding tour proved that she can reinvent herself and still reach tremendous heights. If we are still waiting on two more acts of the Renaissance project, Queen Bey might bless us with a wild 2024. I think Ariana Grande could rise to this potential as well, and I’m excited to see how she returns to the spotlight next year. I’m hoping that she has a major comeback in which she releases a new album and does a press run for Wicked: Part One.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t really see it happening for anyone else. Olivia Rodrigo would be the only newer artist whose trajectory to this point looks to be even remotely similar to Swift’s at this point in her career — but she’s got so long and so far to go to get there that it’s unreasonable to expect or even hope for. I wouldn’t say it’ll never happen again, but when it does, chances are it’ll be with someone totally unfamiliar to us currently, and in a totally new way that we never could have seen coming in 2023.

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5. If you had to bet right now, do you think Taylor Swift will also be the runaway pick for our Greatest Pop Star of 2024 around this time next year?

Katie Atkinson: I don’t want to bet against Taylor ever. I guarantee she’s on that list, given we have another full year of The Eras Tour ahead of us, but we’ll have to see whether she might take a (much-needed) break from the prolific pace of her album and re-recording releases next year. She’ll be top five regardless.

Kyle Denis: I won’t say she’ll be the runaway pick, but I do think she’ll be in the top five or top three contenders. The tricky thing with a year like the one Swift has had is that the pendulum eventually swings in the other direction.  

Jason Lipshutz: It’s simply too early to tell. I do want to point out a pattern, though: Swift released two re-recorded albums in 2021, then a new studio album in 2022, then back to two re-records in 2023… Could the cycle continue, and we get a new Swift album next year? If we do, then yes, she is the prohibitive favorite for our Greatest Pop Star of 2024. Bet against Taylor at your own risk.

Meghan Mahar: Absolutely. There are Eras Tour dates lined up through December of 2024, and every show will generate new content now that Swift’s slate of surprise songs will be reset at the top of the year. In addition to surprise songs, the Reputation and Taylor Swift debut eras that are incorporated into the show will continue to fuel the anticipation of the Taylor’s Version releases — and I would bet that we are getting at least one of those albums next year. The fact that Taylor has two more potentially career-defining projects in the pipeline is insane, and her dominance over the news cycle goes beyond her professional endeavors. Between her high-profile friendships and budding romance, I don’t think we will hear the end of Swift anytime soon.

Andrew Unterberger: Between her and the field I’ll probably take the field — there’s just too much competition out there, and it’s hard enough to sustain a year like Swift’s 2023 for 12 months let alone for 24 — but she’s certainly got the best odds of anyone on the field. It may come down to how much she wants that title again, or whether she’d rather give herself (and by extension everyone else) a little bit more of a break instead.

In late November, Billboard released its Year-End Hot 100 chart, ranking the 100 biggest hits of the 2023 chart year on the marquee songs listing. It was topped by Morgan Wallen’s 16-week Hot 100 No. 1 “Last Night” — one of his eight entries on the chart, most of any artist, all hailing from parent album One Thing at a Time — with Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” and SZA’s “Kill Bill” following behind at Nos. 2 and 3.
With a little time to reflect on it, Billboard‘s staff is taking a look at some of the more interesting entries and trends on the Year-End chart. What songs were higher or lower than we expected? And what songs on the current weekly Hot 100 will we expect to be high finishers on the 2024 Year-End rankings? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. A top three of “Last Night,” “Flowers” and “Kill Bill” feels about right for 2023. If you had to pick just one of the three to really capture the year in music, which would it be?

Kyle Denis: I’d have to go with “Kill Bill.” By all accounts, this was SZA’s year and the endurance of “Kill Bill” – even alongside another solo SOS single with comparable success (“Snooze”) – is a testament to how effortlessly she dominated 2023. 

Lyndsey Havens: It is pretty amazing that the top three songs really do represent what this year in music looked like, from country music’s dominance to pop music’s self-aware era. And while I’m tempted to pick the monster-hit “Flowers,” I have to go with the only right answer here: “Kill Bill.” Despite arriving in 2022, the way in which SZA remained front and center throughout 2023 — and the way in which this single alone never lost steam — makes it the obvious pick to represent the year. With the moody and menacing SOS hit, SZA not only made her long-awaited return but also helped other emerging R&B artists cut through — and proved that no genre is off limits for her, or anyone who is up next. 

Jason Lipshutz: While SZA’s SOS became a defining album of the past year, Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers” captured the year in music more than “Kill Bill” for me by functioning more like a traditional mega-hit. For the first few months of 2023, “Flowers” was absolutely everywhere — atop streaming playlists, on multiple radio formats, blasting in retail stores and across social media. “Last Night” owned the chart-topping longevity and “Kill Bill” was a months-long TikTok sensation, but I’ll remember the multi-quadrant enormity of “Flowers” most clearly.

Joe Lynch: SZA’s “Kill Bill.” With that woozy intro and the homicidal lyrics, it’s got a bit of an edge, but it’s total radio catnip. It works as pleasant background music for some and sing-along fodder for others – it’s well-suited for this era of vibey, low-key music, a market where listeners don’t seem to respond to maximalist pop or hip-hop that’s so hard it would net a 10 on the Mohs scale.  

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say “Last Night,” which is representative of both the most most commercially ascendant genre of 2023 and of the way pop listening has become diffuse enough that a 16-week Hot 100 No. 1 could seem like the biggest song of the year to some and barely even make the notice of others.

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2. Do any of the songs in the top 25 particularly surprise you — either because you didn’t realize they were that big or because you don’t think of them as being that relevant to 2023? 

Kyle Denis: “Unholy” at No. 11 surprised me a little bit. For me, that song feels very attached to 2022 and it didn’t really seem to be driving much conversation during 2023, so a placement just outside the top 10 is impressive. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think what surprises me the most is just how prevalent country music was this year — eight out of 28 songs on the tally belong to the genre. But beyond that major takeaway, I’m most surprised by Chris Brown’s “Under the Influence”… a song I managed to go all year without hearing?… (And yes, I realize I am calling myself out ). My main thought is: “Must be from TikTok.”

Jason Lipshutz: If you gave me 100 guesses at songs in the top 20 of the 2023 year-end Hot 100, I don’t think I would have named Morgan Wallen’s “Thinkin’ Bout Me” — which is mostly a symptom of the song being the third-biggest Wallen hit of the year, as well as the slew of bigger country hits (Zach Bryan’s “Something in the Orange” and Bailey Zimmerman’s “Rock and a Hard Place” among them) above it on the list. “Thinkin’ Bout Me” coming in at No. 19 on the year-end chart speaks to Wallen’s gargantuan chart impact in 2023, where his One Thing at a Time album wasn’t just limited to just one smash single; maybe “Thinkin’ Bout Me” doesn’t persist as a durable hit, but Wallen’s 2023 achievements will stand for a long time.

Joe Lynch: Perhaps it’s recency bias, but I didn’t think of the Ariana/Weeknd “Die for You” as such an enduring song to be in the year-end top 10. “As It Was” – which came out a year-and-a-half ago! — is a surprise to see in 2023’s top 25. But the real surprise for me is Miguel’s “Sure Thing” – maybe it’s just his low-profile these days, but that got an eyebrow raise out of me, as I wouldn’t call that a ubiquitous track of 2023.  

Andrew Unterberger: I still can’t believe that “Something in the Orange” (No. 13) was as massive as it was — it never felt unignorably huge (or like the kind of hit that ultimately becomes unignorably huge) in the moment. But it stuck around forever, and now it wouldn’t surprise me if Zach Bryan’s “I Remember Everything” (with Kacey Musgraves) rates even higher on the 2024 Year-End Hot 100.

3. What song outside of the top 25 would you have sworn would finish in the chart’s top quarter?

Kyle Denis: I think I was most shocked to see the following placements: Lil Uzi Vert’s “Just Wanna Rock” (No. 28), Gunna’s “Fukumean” (No. 31), Coi Leray’s “Players” (No. 33) and Nicki Minaj, Ice Spice & AQUA’s “Barbie World” (No. 46). For the Uzi, its placement is understandable considering some of their biggest chart weeks probably fell in the tracking period for the 2022 Year-End charts. Regardless, “Just Wanna Rock” felt like one of the most dominant hip-hop crossover hits of the year, alongside “Players” and “Fukumean,” so all three tracks being absent from the top 25 is pretty surprising. 

I also find it curious that none of the Barbie songs landed in the top 25. The Nicki/Ice track felt a bit bigger than its Year-End peak suggests, as did Dua Lipa’s “Dance the Night.” 

Lyndsey Havens: Coming in at No. 26 is “Ella Baila Sola,” the defining musica Mexicana song this year, and as such one of the defining Latin music songs overall this year. I’m pretty shocked it didn’t crack the top 25, though am at the least pleased it got so close. I’m also pretty shocked to see “Vampire” at No. 30, Olivia Rodrigo’s highest entry on this year-end chart. For an artist who seemed to have such a dominant presence this year, I would have guessed this song would have landed much higher.

Jason Lipshutz: I’m shocked that Gunna’s “Fukumean” only clocks in at No. 31 — mostly because it was released in July, so it missed out on more than half a year of chart points, but in my mind, that two-minute-and-change gem lingered in the top 10 of the Hot 100 for months on end. Regardless of where it ended up on the year-end chart, there won’t many more rap songs as year-defining as “Fukumean.”

Joe Lynch: Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red.” A three-week No. 1 on the Hot 100, a legit viral song, a radio hit and IMO one of the defining songs of 2023. I’m a bit surprised to see it rank just outside of the year-end top 50 – not even as high as Steve Lacy’s “Bad Habit,” which seems like it came a million years ago. Maybe more listeners left “Red” on read than I thought.  

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll add to the chorus of support for “Fukumean” here, which not only felt like one of the defining hits of 2023, but — to my largely anecdotal experience — felt like it hung in or around the top 10 for most of the year. Maybe just a quirk of the math that it ends up so (relatively) low, but I definitely would’ve guessed top 20 for that one.

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4. It’s not unusual for songs from a Year-End Hot 100 chart to have been technically released the year before, but 2023 is unusual in that four of the top 20 (“Die for You,” “I’m Good,” “Under the Influence” and “Cruel Summer”) were either first released or first teased in the prior decade — while another two (“Creepin’” and “Fast Car”) are covers of songs from even longer ago. Does this fixation on the past say anything particularly interesting to you about pop music in 2023, or is it more of a coincidence than anything?

Kyle Denis: I think it definitely says something about the nostalgia loop we seem to be stuck in culturally. It makes sense that a year that saw a boom of nostalgia-bait podcasts for old T.V. shows and the dominance of a tour literally built on self-reflection (Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour) would be characterized by hit songs that consciously gesture to the past. 

On the other hand, I think that the success of more recent catalogue tracks like “Die for You,” “Cruel Summer” and “Under the Influence” is emblematic of how quickly we seem to move through album cycles nowadays. Outside of a few album campaigns lengthened by the pandemic year of 2020, the past few years have seen our biggest artists opting for quick follow-ups and lengthy tracklists – sometimes at the same time. This, in turn, leaves the consumer with a massive surplus of music to sift through, and, as it happens, not every gem is uncovered in an album’s original release year. 

“Cruel Summer,” for example, has always been a fan favorite from Lover, but Swift only pushed one singles from that record after its full release. She then dropped a pair of new albums the following year. That’s three album’s worth of new material in two years from an artist who used to plot exactly two years between LPs; of course, it took a minute for “Cruel Summer” to elbow its way into the limelight! 

Lyndsey Havens: I definitely think it’s illustrative of consumption habits today and not at all a coincidence. We’ve seen it happen before this year, where old hits become new again — the examples are plentiful — and while for some time that was credited to the all-mighty TV synch, it has become more and more possible due to TikTok, an app that seems to exist outside of linear time. More than ever, consumers are in the driver’s seat when it comes to selecting what songs — new or old — take off. From there, as we’ve seen particularly with a song like “Cruel Summer” or “Kill Bill,” it’s up to the artist to determine how much fuel they want to add to that fire.

Jason Lipshutz: We’re seeing the TikTok-ification of the music industry in real time: old songs becoming new hits after being revived on social media has become commonplace, particularly when, in the cases of “Die for You” and “Cruel Summer,” they involve superstars with huge promotional apparatuses ready to pounce upon bubbling trends. The success of “Creepin’” and “Fast Car” are extensions of that industry evolution in my mind, since their success was predicated upon listeners hoisting them up above the original tracks on Metro Boomin and Luke Combs’ respective albums. The year-end Hot 100 demonstrates that, today, music fans don’t care if a song is old or new, or an original or a cover — they just care if it’s good enough to stream on repeat.

Joe Lynch: I’m hesitant to wax philosophical too much, but here I go. I don’t think it’s coincidence. During fraught, stressful socio-political periods in history, audiences frequently go back to sounds and intellectual properties from the past. Familiarity is comfort for many, and consumers – whether they’re music listeners, movie-goers, Broadway regulars, video gamers or whatever – tend to seek out the familiar in times of national and international uncertainty.  

Andrew Unterberger: It’s about TikTok, for sure — but it’s also about radio essentially acquiescing to TikTok when it comes to determining what a hit is and should be. Two or three years ago, some of these songs might’ve gone viral without ever really being embraced by radio, and without that second wind to their chart fortunes they would’ve faded on the Hot 100 before they got the chance to really make enough impact for the Year-End ranking. But now, top 40 is following TikTok’s lead on songs like “Die for You,” “Cruel Summer” and Combs’ “Fast Car,” and it’s resulting in some of the biggest and longest-lasting hits of the year.

5. If you had to bet, what song that’s currently on the Hot 100 would you expect to finish the highest on the 2024 Year-End tally?

Kyle Denis: I’m putting my money on either Jack Harlow’s “Lovin On Me,” Tate McRae’s “Greedy” or Tyla’s “Water.” 

Lyndsey Havens: I’m going to guess Tate McRae’s “Greedy,” with my runner-up picks being SZA’s “Snooze” and Dua Lipa’s “Houdini” (as Lipa has said herself, her songs are slow burns… and if an album drops next year, “Houdini” will likely enjoy renewed attention). Even so, “Greedy” seems like the obvious choice here, largely given my answer above about the role TikTok plays in sustaining a hit today. And despite McRae recently saying she doesn’t want to make hits for TikTok, her fans have other plans — and they most definitely are using “Greedy” to soundtrack their clips on the app. Because of this, I do think the song will sustain through the holiday season and well into 2024.  

Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with Noah Kahan’s “Stick Season,” which has peaked at No. 31 and spent 10 weeks on the chart thus far, but Kahan feels primed for a huge, arena-show-packed 2024, and as his signature song, “Stick Season” could keep hanging around the top 40 of the Hot 100 for months on end. Maybe it never reaches No. 1 or even breaks into the top 10, but I’d be pretty surprised if “Stick Season” isn’t high up on the 2024 year-end Hot 100.

Joe Lynch: Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night.” A song this unstoppable in 2023 is going to keep going on radio and streaming well into 2024, making this seem like a “Night” that just won’t end.

Andrew Unterberger: Alluded to this earlier, but “I Remember Everything” is my call for a song that unexpectedly catches a second wind (radio finally getting on board?) in 2024 and lingers on the chart for longer than anyone expects.