State Champ Radio five burning questions
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A short 65 years after its 1958 release, Brenda Lee‘s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” finally hits the No. 1 spot on the Billboard Hot 100 this week.
The Christmas classic, which rose to No. 2 each of the last four holiday seasons but was previously unable to unseat Mariah Carey’s beloved “All I Want for Christmas is You,” gets all the way to the Hot 100’s apex on the chart dated Dec. 9 — making Lee’s third career No. 1, after “I’m Sorry” and “I Want to Be Wanted” both reached pole position in 1960. It comes after a major promotional push from both Lee and her UMG Nashville label, including a new music video, a new holiday EP, and a whole lot of new Lee TikToks, all timed to the song’s 65th birthday celebration this year.
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What was it that finally got the song over the top? And is the No. 1 spot now Lee’s to lose? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. After 65 years — and four years of finishing in the runner-up spot on the Hot 100 to “All I Want for Christmas Is You” every December — Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” finally claims the No. 1 spot this week. On a scale of 1-10, how would you rate the historical long-delayed triumph of “Rockin’” topping the Hot 100 in 2023?
Katie Atkinson: I’ll go with a 5, only because it was the most likely non-Mariah Christmas song to get to No. 1 next so it felt inevitable. But I also wouldn’t have been surprised if Mariah had just never ceded the top spot every December from here for years to come. But I love that this opens up the possibility of a revolving door of holidays hits that shift places in and out of the top spots every year. Justice for Bobby Helms!
Kyle Denis: 7. This is fun! It’s cool to see that “All I Want for Christmas Is You” really did a break a glass ceiling for the Hot 100 performance of holiday tracks in the streaming era.
Jason Lipshutz: A 10. As astonishing as it was when Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” finally reached No. 1 a few years ago, “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” surpassing that season-defining juggernaut — even for one week — is even more shocking to me. I would have expected a newer Christmas song to become the next non-Mariah holiday single to top the Hot 100; instead, we have Brenda Lee’s 65-year-old standard getting over the hump. This is as improbable as chart feats get.
Taylor Mims: I would rate it a 7. December on the charts has become a lot more interesting since the Hot 100 rules changed to allow holiday music on the main popular chart. The holidays tend to be a slow time for the music industry, but with Mariah Carey and now Brenda Lee vying for those top spots, there’s certainly more to discuss. Carey has really made a holiday meal out of her Christmas song success, but to see a track like Lee’s standard reach the pinnacle is fun to watch and gives everyone an underdog to root for this year.
Andrew Unterberger: At least a 9. Four years ago I would have assumed the race between “All I Want” and “Rockin” would prove essentially asymptotic, with Lee’s song always getting closer but never actually catching Carey’s. Last year was the first year it seemed like there was even a real chance that “Rockin’” would eventually capture the top spot — and I still would’ve assumed it was several years away at the nearest. This year… I’m still having a little trouble believing it, to be honest. Kudos to Lee and UMG for achieving the near-impossible.
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2. Many factors went into this chart race — but most of all, do you think “Rockin’” finally getting past “All I Want” was more a matter of public sentimentality, promotion from Lee and her label, or just good timing?
Katie Atkinson: I’m going to go with timing here. There were some steps taken this year – like Lee releasing her first music video for the song in early November – but I think it really came down to “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” being the most popular song in that first full Christmas week this year. Yes, Mariah has the recent track record, but Brenda Lee has a 30-year head start on Christmas nostalgia. There’s also the possibility of fa-la-la-fatigue (sorry) for “All I Want for Christmas.” I have no doubt it will go back to No. 1 at some point, but it’s nice to give Brenda her moment.
Kyle Denis: I think it’s a combination of good timing and promotion from Lee and her label. In terms of timing, we aren’t in the midst of an incredibly dominant weekslong run atop the Hot 100, so reaching the summit proved a bit more feasible. Between a new music video, her active TikTok presence, and a promo run that has included collaborations with Kelly Clarkson and Dolly Parton as well as upcoming live performances, Lee and her team were clearly gunning for that No. 1 – and they got it.
Jason Lipshutz: I think the extra promotion from Lee pushed “Rockin’” to No. 1 this year, after years of running a competitive race but coming up short against “All I Want.” The song has always been a major holiday hit, but this year’s not-so-subtle campaign — including a long-overdue official music video and TikTok appearances from Lee — boosted “Rockin’” just enough to give it a shot at No. 1. Public sentimentality and timing was on its side, but without that promo push, I doubt we’re talking about it finally reaching the top spot.
Taylor Mims: “Rockin’” hitting the top spot seems primarily the work of really good promotion from Lee and her label. That’s not to say it isn’t a great song: It’s fantastic and has absolutely stood the test of time and millions have been and will be playing the song all month. But Lee and her team made a concerted effort to push this song over the threshold on this anniversary and with a star who is incredibly endearing. They got public sentimentality on their side, which is saying a lot considering how crowded the month is with holidays, shopping and general end-of-the-year stress. It shows that people are still interested in these personal profiles and good storytelling.
Andrew Unterberger: The promotion is probably the biggest factor, turning the race into something even non-obsessive Hot 100 watchers were aware of and making Lee’s hunt for the No. 1 one of the feel-good stories of the chart year. But you also can’t count out good old-fashioned playlisting, as Lee’s older holiday classic is privy to some coveted lean-back-listening territory that Carey’s modern standard is still deemed too new for. At this time of year, when a lot of folks are just reaching for the nearest, most-familiar and most-comforting set of Christmas songs available, that advantage is not to be overlooked.
3. Now that “Rockin’” has overtaken “All I Want” for one week, do you see it staying on top indefinitely, trading back and forth with “All I Want” week-to-week, or giving the top spot back up to “All I Want” and resuming its runner-up position?
Katie Atkinson: I see the two songs trading spots — and maybe even allowing for some other holiday favorites to slip in to No. 1 as well. I don’t think there would be anything that embodies the holiday season more than gifting a revolving door of legendary artists an unprecedented chart-topper decades into their careers or even after they’ve passed. Let’s shake it up!
Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to think it will probably concede the top spot to “All I Want” for a few weeks, but the points will be close. At this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a third holiday song sneak a week in at No. 1.
Jason Lipshutz: Hard to say exactly — I’m still shocked that Brenda surpassed Mariah for a single week this year — but my guess would be that “All I Want” resumes its status as the biggest Christmas song on the charts and “Rockin’” dips back to No. 2. I respect Mariah Carey’s classic single as a culture-dominating holiday behemoth too much to entertain notions of “All I Want” staying in the runner-up spot, at least for the foreseeable future. While I’m very happy that Brenda Lee finally made it to No. 1, I suspect that this will be a one-week flare-up, and Mariah ascends to the top spot next week.
Taylor Mims: That all depends on how much work Lee and her team plan on putting in to this endeavor. “Rockin’” is officially a No. 1 Hot 100 hit, and I am not sure what a few more weeks at the top spot will mean for the track. I think it would take a lot more resources to keep pushing ahead of Carey and her well-oiled “Queen of Christmas” machine. As the month progresses, I also think it will be harder and harder to sustain attention on the subject and folks will go back to playing generic holiday music playlists. Without a PR push, I think it will go back to a close runner up position and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Andrew Unterberger: It seems like “Rockin’” might still have the advantage for this upcoming chart week, and with all this attention and momentum fully behind her, it seems possible that Lee might be able to hang on for the rest of the holiday season — though I certainly wouldn’t count out “All I Want” reclaiming the throne for a week or two. The bigger question will be who starts on top next year, and if it’ll be Carey’s time to turn up the anniversary-celebrating volume; next year will be the 30th birthday of “All I Want,” after all.
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4. With “All I Want” finally proving deposable, do you think more artists and/or their labels will be getting actively involved in trying to power their holiday staples up the charts? If so, is there anything they can learn from the success of “Rockin’”?
Katie Atkinson: Absolutely, but it’s pretty hard to take lessons from the decades of legacy “Rockin’” brings to the table. I mean, in addition to everyone growing up with the song, whether purposely or passively, it also has major moments in holiday movies like Home Alone, so you’re going to get your Brenda fix somewhere in the season whether you’re trying or not. But I think just providing a glimmer of hope that it’s possible to (temporarily) dethrone the reigning Queen means other artists, veterans and rookies alike, should shoot their shot.
Kyle Denis: I think we’ll absolutely see more artists trying to fashion chart contenders outs of their holiday originals. From the success of “Rockin,’” artists should take note of the effectiveness of relentless promotion that’s strategically spaced out to maximize chart timing. In the tracking week that ultimately culminated in the “Rockin’” reaching No. 1, Lee provided “part two” of an exclusive BTS music video set tour with appearances from Trish Yearwood and Tanya Tucker, stopped by the Bobby Bones show and visited Talk Shop Live. And this all happened about four weeks after she debuted the track’s official music video, which featured a 78-year-old Lee lip-syncing to her 13-year-old voice! Content is king!
Jason Lipshutz: No — if “Rockin’” hitting No. 1 decades after its release demonstrates anything, it’s that the holiday-song market is darn near impossible to game, especially when it comes to new singles trying to make a dent in the stronghold of the long-running classics. “All I Want” may be perceived as slightly more fallible now than it was last week, but it’s not like a recent holiday song upended its chart run; “Rockin’” is a beloved, generations-spanning single, and those are impossible to replicate within the music industry.
Taylor Mims: Artists and labels will absolutely be coming for Carey’s throne. Lee and her team had a great plan, took their time executing it and triumphed (please, everyone go watch the beautiful video of Lee finding out “Rockin’” hit No. 1). There is now a blueprint for challenging Carey for that No. 1 spot over the holiday season and I think she has a lot of adversaries ahead. Do I think they will all succeed? No. Do I think the public will get tired of holiday chart competitions? Yes. But when something succeeds as well as Lee’s campaign did, there will be copycats.
Andrew Unterberger: In all honesty, I think there’s only one song that has anywhere near the juice to properly challenge either of these songs anytime soon: Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” which is another undeniable classic that also seems to grow in public esteem every year (particularly after frontman George Michael’s death during the 2016 holiday season). If the duo’s Sony label label wanted to follow the “Rockin’” blueprint and do a big promotional push in time for a major anniversary — the song’s 40th anniversary is next year, though they might be better off waiting for the 10th anniversary of Michael’s passing in 2026 — I think the door is at least slightly ajar.
5. Ignoring all chart-related concerns: on another scale from 1-10, how much would you say “Rockin’” still rocks 65 years after its release?
Katie Atkinson: It’s a 10 for me. It’s just so cute and fun, and I’ve somehow never gotten sick of it. I still can’t believe a 13-year-old sang this stone-cold classic.
Kyle Denis: 6. It’s aight.
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. It’s not my favorite Christmas song, as is not as enthralling as “All I Want,” but I always enjoy hearing it on a holiday playlist, on the radio or within a too-crowded shopping mall, and get immediately transported back to the holiday listening sessions of my childhood. You could even say that when I hear it, I get a sentimental feeling.
Taylor Mims: That’s an easy 10. “Rockin’” is one of the most upbeat and cheerful Christmas standards and it is impossible to get out of your head after you’ve heard it once. It is the potato chip of holiday music — you can’t listen to it just once. It’s got guitar, a raspy voice, a touch of brass and a whole lot of heart. Every year we start hearing it earlier and earlier (pre-Thanksgiving now) and it warms the spirits in the cold months. Undoubtedly, “Rockin’” has another 65 years in it.
Andrew Unterberger: A 7. It’s not quite in the top tier to me, but I never really mind hearing it — which, after 65 years of annual overplay (37 of which I’ve been alive for), is still fairly impressive.
Taylor Swift, Drake and now Jack Harlow. That’s the complete list of artists who’ve scored No. 1 hits on the Billboard Hot 100 in each of the past three calendar years — with the latter artist completing the trifecta with his new chart-topper “Lovin on Me.”
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“Lovin” climbs from 2-1 on the Hot 100 this week (dated Dec. 9), following his Lil Nas X collab “Industry Baby” (2021) and his solo smash “First Class” (2022) to the chart’s apex. Like “First Class,” the song was extensively teased on TikTok before its release, building up anticipation for its debut.
How has Harlow continued scoring these smashes? And will he one day also have the consistent major album success of a Drake or Swift? Billboard staffers debate these questions and more below.
1. Jack Harlow’s “Lovin on Me” climbs 2-1 on the Hot 100 this week, giving him a No. 1 hit in a third straight year — the only artist besides Drake and Taylor Swift on as long a streak. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you to see Harlow’s name along with those two others for that benchmark?
Eric Renner Brown: I’d quantify my mild surprise as a 3. Not so much because Harlow strung together three consecutive years with a Hot 100 topper – even in 2021, it was fairly clear he had the juice as far as pop-rap goes – but because only him, Drake, and Taylor have achieved this distinction. To come at this question another way, my surprise is primarily in terms of the artists who scored Hot 100 No. 1s in 2021, and then missed the chart’s top slot in at least one of the two following years. At the end of 2021, Lil Nas X and BTS were both omnipresent and it felt like a strong possibility that Cardi B would have a new album (with ostensibly huge singles) the following year. Instead, 2021 was the last year any of them topped the chart.
Kyle Denis: Maybe about a 6? When you think about it, it’s not really that surprising. Jack Harlow is a charismatic young talent with really broad appeal, and it’s not like he makes music that staunchly rejects mainstream conventions. Nonetheless, after the soft commercial reception of Jackman earlier this year and his relative absence from the headlines, another No. 1 hit does come as a bit of a surprise. Then again, when you have a hold on TikTok in the way that Jack Harlow does, there’s always a hit in your back pocket.
Josh Glicksman: A high 7. Sure, Harlow has become one of the bigger names in music over the past few years, but I doubt that your casual top 40 listener would know him as an answer to that trivia question. Still, he’s done an excellent job of picking collaborations, samples and, perhaps most importantly, the right singles since 2021. It’s hard to overemphasize the last point: Three of his last five singles as a lead artist have gone to No. 1. Harlow and his team clearly have a spot-on understanding of what is going to latch onto the mainstream ear in a moment’s notice.
Jason Lipshutz: A 9 — and that’s not due to anything against Jack Harlow, but just because of how his singles discography has oscillated between quickly evaporating tracks and No. 1 smashes. Unlike artists like Taylor Swift and Drake, who routinely send singles to the top of the Hot 100 regardless of the commercial rollout or affiliated project, Harlow has the ability to put out singles and projects with little Hot 100 heat (this year’s Jackman album didn’t produce a single top 40 entry, for instance), but then follow them up with songs that build TikTok anticipation and immediately explode on streaming services. It’s a singular skill, which makes a feat like “Lovin on Me” so unexpected.
Andrew Unterberger: A 7. Clearly Harlow’s crossover instincts are strong — we even named him one of the 10 greatest pop stars of 2022 — but it does feel like he has to prove himself each time out in a way that most cemented A-listers are mostly beyond needing to do. Striking gold like this three years in a row is quite tough to do for an artist on Harlow’s (still very high) commercial level.
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2. Like “First Class” before it, “Lovin on Me” built excellent pre-release buzz on TikTok, essentially minting it as a hit before its debut. What about the song — or about Harlow’s singles in general — do you think makes it so viral-ready?
Eric Renner Brown: It has to help that the sheer density of his rhymes means that Harlow can simply squeeze more into a bite-sized clip, right? Harlow songs have this funny quality: Wherever you drop in, you’ll get to a punchline (or perhaps more accurately, an intended punchline) within a few seconds. (On “Lovin On Me,” don’t miss “I keep it short with a b–ch, Lord Farquaad” tucked away in the second verse – easily rap’s best Shrek moment of 2023.) More generally, I think Harlow’s classic production sensibilities give his songs a sense of familiarity. There’s nothing particularly grating or challenging about his music, which greases the virality wheels.
Kyle Denis: Definitely the sample. That melody coupled with a beat that feels familiar to enough to recall Drake’s “The Motto,” but distinct enough to feel like its own entity, makes for a track with several key components to latch onto. More importantly, like “First Class,” “Lovin on Me,” finds Jack rapping to the ladies – and there isn’t much of that happening in rap music right now (at least from the men in the mainstream). Of the 50 songs on Billboard’s 2023 Year-End Hot Rap Songs ranking, just a handful can be described as songs that fit that bill.
Josh Glicksman: The man knows how to pick an earworm of a sample! Like “First Class” before it, it only takes a listen or two before “Lovin on Me” will be fully stuck in your head, humming Cadillac Dale’s pitched-up, sped-up pre-chorus again and again. He’s been doing it for years: Don’t forget about 2019’s “Thru the Night” — released just a few months before breakthrough hit “Whats Poppin” — which similarly used a lift from Usher’s “U Don’t Have to Call” to wrap its way around listeners’ hearts.
Jason Lipshutz: “First Class” and “Lovin on Me” follow a similar blueprint: rhythmic sample prominent in the production, Harlow flex-singing on the hook, then packing his verses with sexual innuendos. Harlow did not become a star with that formula — breakthrough single “What’s Poppin” sounds nothing like either No. 1 hit — but the one-liners are ripe for TikTok trends, and the sample-heavy choruses translate well to radio. “First Class” was a viral juggernaut before it became a traditional hit, and I expected “Lovin on Me” will function similarly.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s the samples. While “Lovin on Me” is built around a significantly less-familiar sample (Cadillac Dale’s “Whatever”) than the Fergie-reviving “First Class,” it’s another immediately grabbing hook that Harlow does an excellent job interacting with and wrapping himself around. It arrives already feeling like a song we’ve known for a decade or longer, and that’s of incredible value when it comes to pop music at pretty much any point in history.
3. “First Class” not only had an excellent debut, it hung around long enough — spending half a year in the top 40 — to end up one of the biggest Hot 100 hits of 2022. Do you think “Lovin” will display similar endurance?
Eric Renner Brown: “First Class” was released a year-and-a-half before “Lovin On You,” which means it was also released a year-and-a-half closer to Harlow’s white-hot 2020 and 2021. In 2022, Harlow was still enjoying that afterglow, and I think “First Class” was a prime example. The two singles are comparable in quality – “Lovin On Me” has a little more edge to it, but “First Class” bests it in terms of originality – so Harlow’s current cultural cachet will likely be the differentiating factor here when it comes to commercial performance.
Kyle Denis: I think it has the potential. If it can survive the Christmas onslaught and grow its presence on radio in the new year, “Lovin on Me” could very well be one of those Q4 releases that truly explode in Q1.
Josh Glicksman: Candidly, “Lovin on Me” sounds more to me like a song that gets released in late spring and has the energy to last on the radio all summer long. My worry for Young J-A-C-K here is that, try as he might, Christmas music is already beginning its inevitable annual takeover of the charts. Regaining the track’s momentum following several weeks where people may push it aside is no easy feat. Pulling off another half year in the top 40 would be no Christmas miracle for him, but maybe more of an unexpected present under the tree.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s hard to say: we’re entering a pretty wonky chart moment, with a slew of holiday music about to dominate the Hot 100 and some longer-running hits like Taylor Swift’s “Cruel Summer” and Doja Cat’s “Paint the Town Red” already entrenched as counter-programming at radio. If “Lovin on Me” is going to hang around as a hit, it needs to transcend the next six weeks of Christmas fare and come out within the top 20 or so on the other side. I think the song has legs, but we’ll truly know if it does in January.
Andrew Unterberger: I think so. As demonstrated by a song like Sam Smith’s & Kim Petras’ “Unholy” — which had a massive, TikTok-accelerated debut in late 2022, and still hung around long enough to finish No. 11 on our 2023 Year-End Hot 100 — just because a song becomes a pop hit due to internet virality, that doesn’t mean it’s necessarily likely to fade as quickly as it sparked. The streaming numbers are still robust, and radio is coming on fast, with multiple formats likely thrilled to receive a pre-minted hit like this so late in the calendar year. We’ll be hearing from “Lovin on You” well into 2024.
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4. While Harlow has become a near-household name on the strength of his hit singles and feature appearances, his albums have not yet garnered the same consistency of success. Do you see it as only a matter of time before that follows, or is he more of an old-school singles artist who doesn’t necessarily need smash albums to thrive?
Eric Renner Brown: First, I’d push back on the notion that Harlow’s albums haven’t been consistently successful: Not No. 1s, but all three have charted in the top 10 of the Billboard 200, which is nothing to sneeze at. But with that said, Harlow is a little-goes-a-long-way artist for me – and, I would assume, for many other listeners as well. The showboat cadence, the “is this the dumbest or most clever thing I’ve ever heard?” jokes… they get exhausting after a while.
His first two albums weren’t long relative to mainstream rap’s data dumps – each is roughly the length of a single vinyl LP – but this is why I thought this year’s even-shorter Jackman, at 24 minutes, was savvy. Get in, show the listeners how skilled a technician you are, and get out before you wear out your welcome. Then again, it’s also unclear what Harlow’s goals are for his albums. Come Home The Kids Miss You had four A-list features, but otherwise had a slimmer guest list than many of Harlow’s peers’ albums; Jackman had no features at all. If Harlow wanted these albums to have charted higher, there are straightforward ways he could have achieved that – and could achieve that in the future.
Kyle Denis: When it comes to albums, Jack Harlow is in a weird place. His official debut studio LP (2020’s Thats What They All Say) arrived at the right time to capitalize on the success of “Whats Poppin” and “Tyler Herro,” but he hadn’t yet really fleshed out who he was as a pop star and brand beyond those hits. He was able to do all that by the time his sophomore record (2022’s Come Home the Kids Miss You) rolled around, but tepid critical reception made it remarkably easy for “First Class” to overshadow the rest of the set. Then we have 2023’s Jackman, which was a conscious step away from the crossover aspirations of his first two records, obviously netting even less outstanding commercial returns.
Clearly, Jack doesn’t need a smash album to have a fruitful career, but I think he has at least one of those in him. I still think, had it not been for the pandemic, his debut could have been that record for him.
Josh Glicksman: As Billboard recently covered, the album is alive and well, though I have Harlow as an old-school singles artist — or at least, that’s where he’s going to have the most mainstream success. He has proven time and again that he knows how to captivate an audience with a one-off, and if you can string a handful of those together across a few albums, you’ll have a long and healthy career. That shouldn’t stop him from continuing to try, though. For everyone clamoring for another “Lovin on Me,” I’ll be waiting in line for the next installment of Jackman.
Jason Lipshutz: I think more consistency is in his future, because he’s more of a known entity — complete with major live shows, feature film roles and TV ad appearances — than a hit-single merchant without any artistic identity. It will be interesting to see if Harlow decides to take a few more swings of the Jackman bat and establish a stronger foothold in mainstream hip-hop, or if he becomes more focused on crossover hits as a way of extending his commercial run; in either lane, I’d bet on him establishing a dependable artistic tone and catering to its fan base.
Andrew Unterberger: Feels like a singles artist to me. Jackman was an admirable attempt to appeal to a more of a J. Cole-like audience, but while the album was more impressive than I would have expected, it simply didn’t attract the listenership to suggest that it’s what most people want to hear from Harlow. Meanwhile, Come Home had a stronger commercial debut but a worse reception from fans and critics, who didn’t seem to feel that the “First Class” version of Harlow could really sustain interest (or even likability) for an entire album. It’ll be a challenge for him to find a way to really split the difference between the two versions of himself — but having three Hot 100 No. 1s in three years should buy him a decent amount of time to try to figure it out, anyway.
5. Fill in the blank: Jack Harlow will end up being this generation’s _____.
Eric Renner Brown: John Mayer, maybe? Young heartthrob with undeniable and flashy skills scores some early hits then struggles to define himself artistically in the face of (often inaccurate or overblown) popular stereotypes… maybe this all ends with Harlow pinch-hitting as a key member in a hip-hop legacy act.
Kyle Denis: Jack Harlow will end up being this generation’s late-career Ludacris – he’ll always have a hit waiting in the wings, his albums won’t make much of an impact, and he’ll retain his crossover appeal by remaining a relevant figure across entertainment for as long as he desires.
Josh Glicksman: Thanksgiving is over, but let’s stay in theme: Jack Harlow will end up being this generation’s pumpkin pie. Do with that what you will.
Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with Fat Joe, a respected rapper with some huge pop hits, plenty of animated guest spots and loyal support within the hip-hop community. Harlow is not all the way up quite yet, but he’s getting there.
Andrew Unterberger: Wiz Khalifa. But also sorta its Pitbull.
It’s been quite a past week for Tate McRae in the Billboard realm — in a span of about five days, she made her first-ever appearances on the cover of Billboard magazine, on stage as a Billboard Music Awards performer, and in the top 10 of the Billboard Hot 100.
The last two appearances come courtesy of McRae’s breakout hit “Greedy,” which takes a more pop-forward, triple-threat approach to top 40 domination than her moodier prior hits “You Broke Me First” and “She’s All I Wanna Be.” In addition to delivering the song at Sunday’s (Nov. 19) BBMAs, McRae also performed the song (along with ballad “Grave”) on Saturday Night Live the night before — another first for the 20-year-old rising star.
How did “Greedy” become the song to take McRae to the next level of stardom? And what chances does it have of becoming her first No. 1? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. “Greedy” moves from 11-8 on this week’s Hot 100, becoming her first top 10 hit on the chart in its ninth week. Did you expect the song becoming this kind of breakout hit for her?
Rania Aniftos: Yes, the second I saw tube girl take over TikTok lip syncing “Greedy,” I knew Tate had found her hit. Every other video on the platform had “Greedy” in it.
Kyle Denis: Yes. I covered this song for Billboard’s Trending Up column back in September; the success of “Greedy” has been the result of a coordinated promotional effort beginning with a TikTok snippet strategy and adding several show-stealing live performances along the way.
Lyndsey Havens: Oh yes. Tate has been developing as an artist and building the foundation for her career since 2018 — and even before that, if you count her teenage YouTube series Create With Tate. She’s already had a taste of success with breakout hit “You Broke Me First,” so the stage was set. And with a song like “Greedy” — with its endearing swagger and nostalgic production — the pieces finally fell into place.
Jason Lipshutz: No on the first listen, yes on the fifth listen. After a few plays, “Greedy” fully won me over, both from the standpoint of being insanely catchy and as a subtle showcase of the snappy rhythmic-pop sound in which Tate McRae has created a pocket. McRae is no stranger to top 40 radio — “She’s All I Wanna Be” and “You Broke Me First” both performed well in recent years — but “Greedy” is more immediate, charismatic, and downright memorable than those prior hits. As soon as it clicked into place for me, I expected “Greedy” to become her first top 10 hit.
Andrew Unterberger: I dunno if I could’ve ID’d at it as a sure top 10 hit in a blind taste test, but certainly once the TikTok hype of the song led to a top 40 bow for it on the Hot 100, clearly big things were in the works here — especially after the debut of its hockey rink-set music video, as star-making a moment for McRae as the song itself.
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2. What do you think the biggest reason is that “Greedy” has been the single to bring McRae to a higher tier of hitmaking?
Rania Aniftos: We’re still in this interesting time in music in which Gen Z is super nostalgic. They wish they got to experience the height of the Y2K pop star era with Britney Spears, Christina Aguilera, Jessica Simpson, etc. So, when Tate came out with “Greedy” and it’s sassy and flirty and feels fresh out of 2002, it’s exactly what her demographic has been looking for.
Kyle Denis: It’s probably her most singular offering yet. Tate McRae is clearly a talented performer, but despite her previous success, a lot of her those singles felt faceless and nondescript. While “Greedy” isn’t the most innovative pop song of the year by any means, its undeniable chorus and connection to the “It Girl” aesthetic allowed it to unlock a new level of hitmaking for McRae.
More specifically, however, the TikTok snippet campaign is what really sewed up the success of “Greedy.” Thanks to the campaign, McRae has been prepping consumers’ ears and stoking their interest for “Greedy” since the beginning of August. Couple that with two back-to-back live performances that flaunt her impressive dance skills and you’re left with a good old fashioned pure pop smash.
Lyndsey Havens: I think there are two main drivers here. The first is that she’s sort of talking her s—t a bit… It’s clear she’s coming at the song from a place of confidence and matured sass, two traits that are an easy sell for most pop fans. That self-assuredness is not only heard but also seen in the steamy music video, in which McRae flexes the fact that she is also a professionally trained dancer. I think the combination of a catchy pop hit and eyebrow-raising choreography is fueling this moment.
Jason Lipshutz: The hook here works across formats — from isolated TikTok clips to pop radio to streaming playlists — in a way that makes “Greedy” fit into a ton of different listening scenarios. Scrolling through social media and stumbling across choreo routines? Rolling through a new pop playlist on Spotify, or top music videos on YouTube? “Greedy” is malleable, and can entertain within a variety of pop contexts, which is why it’s caught on with such force over the past few weeks.
Andrew Unterberger: May or may not be the biggest factor, but I think “Greedy” is one of a few singles to benefit from the (relative) absence of Ariana Grande in the pop landscape. Grande was such a mighty top 40 fixture from 2018 to early 2021 that these past couple years without her doing much has left an unoccupied lane on radio and in the culture when it comes to flirty, quippy, swaggering pop&B — one that McRae was more than ready to swerve into here.
3. McRae released her follow-up single “Exes” last Friday — do you think the song will follow “Greedy” to hit status, or does it feel like “Greedy” will be tough for her to match?
Rania Aniftos: While “Exes” is equally as catchy to me, it’s going to be tricky to grab onto the viral success of “Greedy.” It really found the balance of having a TikTok trend attached to it, as well as it being marketable for radio, TV and other mainstream channels. I am rooting for “Exes,” though! It’s such a good song.
Kyle Denis: “Greedy” still has plenty of room to grow, so I’m not sure “Exes” will even get to half of what “Greedy” can achieve. “Exes” is fine. It’s less instant that “Greedy,” which could delay how quickly it takes off. Nonetheless, McRae is already growing into an artist who can really move the needle for her singles through live performances. Perhaps with the right stage, “Exes” will explode into its full potential.
Lyndsey Havens: I think “Greedy” will be tough to match. I think instead of trying to compete, “Exes” — and her entire forthcoming album Think Later — will only help “Greedy” sustain. If anything, “Exes” proves that “Greedy” wasn’t a lucky one-off or contrived — it’s Tate fully loaded.
Jason Lipshutz: “Greedy” is still going strong, so if “Exes” is going to have a moment, I’d guess that such a moment is still a couple months away. That said, I do like “Exes” quite a bit: the bruising confidence and deep percussion of “Greedy” is carried over, and McRae’s personality is even more on display on the follow-up track. I could foresee a world in which “Ohh, I’m sorry / Sorry that you love me,” followed by that indelible cackle, becomes a quick-spreading meme at the top of 2024, and McRae continues her recent hot streak.
Andrew Unterberger: “Exes” has its moments and is off to a pretty strong start on streaming, so it’s probably going to be a factor on the charts in the weeks (months?) to come — but it will have to shine while remaining in the shadow of “Greedy,” which is certainly not going anywhere anytime soon.
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4. The last week has represented a major moment for McRae, not only with the top 10 ascent of “Greedy” and the release of “Exes,” but also a Billboard cover story, a BBMAs performance and a musical guest turn on Saturday Night Live. Do you think having so much Tate McRae in pop culture at once will ultimately have a positive or negative effect on her career momentum?
Rania Aniftos: Positive, for sure. People who had never heard about her before or aren’t on TikTok are now getting introduced to her via more mainstream platforms like SNL or awards shows. This is exactly the exposure she needs to transcend from social media star to full-fledged pop star.
Kyle Denis: Definitely positive. For the past few years, Tate McRae has been floating around the ever-revolving cast of mid-tier pop stars that aren’t necessarily popular by measure of celebrity or name recognition. This level of exposure both helps consumers visually differentiate her from her peers, and showcases why she’s a pop star who people should bother caring about beyond whatever radio hit they may have in rotation at a given moment. Not to mention, she has an album due before the year’s end – this is all great for her!
Lyndsey Havens: I think this succession of major wins will only have a positive impact overall, simply because these things are not happening to her right out of the gate. These things are happening as she’s promoting her second album. They are happening after years of development and key internal changes (like new management) that are finally paying off. I think this moment is happening because of the momentum she already had — and not necessarily because of the momentum from this moment.
Jason Lipshutz: Positive, for sure. McRae has had hits in the past, but has not had the wider name recognition to turn those hits into sustained pop stardom; “Greedy” has functioned as a best-case breakthrough scenario, though, by not only becoming her highest-charting hit to date, but concurrently introducing McRae, the artist, to a mainstream audience. We’ll see how far that introduction takes her in the coming months and years, but she has her foot in the door now, and that’s all that matters.
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, flooding the zone is rarely a bad move for pop artists in 2023. There’ll be some backlash, sure, but being at the center of discussion is something precious few artists can manage for any (not career-killing) reason in 2023 — so if you have the opportunity, may as well grab it.
5. Now that the song has reached No. 8 on the Hot 100, how much higher do you think it can still climb — will it get to the top five? How realistic a goal would a No. 1 be?
Rania Aniftos: Top five seems doable to me, but as long as Taylor Swift keeps releasing re-recordings and as long as “Cruel Summer” still exists, No. 1 is tough for anyone to reach.
Kyle Denis: I think the sky is the limit for “Greedy.” I can definitely see this growing into one of those songs that holds throughout the holidays season and enters the new year as one of the most dominant songs in popular music. She still has ample opportunities for live performances, the built-in boost of album release week and potential remixes. The song just hit the top five on Billboard‘s Pop Airplay chart this week, so its journey is far from over – especially as older 2022 hits and Taylor Swift’s vault tracks continue to free up space in the Hot 100’s uppermost regions.
Lyndsey Havens: I would love to see “Greedy” enter the chart’s top five — and I do think once Think Later arrives in a few weeks that could happen. And hey, call me crazy but… historically, songs that end one year near the top can often begin a new year with even more attention as a result of how slow January can be. So, while a No. 1 spot seems a bit unlikely, I wouldn’t say it’s impossible.
Jason Lipshutz: Top five is realistic for sure, although No. 1 will be difficult with a flood of holiday music about to return to the top of the chart. Who knows, though? It’s not like Burl Ives is performing intricate choreography in hockey pads!
Andrew Unterberger: Top five should definitely be in Mcrae’s sights for “Greedy,” which is still clearly on its way up, and if she and her RCA label have a remix in reserve — maybe even one featuring AG herself? — it could absolutely have a shot at No. 1. The key will be timing, and in fact it may be best for McRae & crew to wait out the Holiday crush and go for the gusto in early 2022.
Recorded back then, a top 10 hit now: The Beatles’ “Now and Then” has returned the music legends to the upper reaches of the Billboard Hot 100, debuting at No. 7 on this week’s chart. Billed as the final Beatles song, “Now and Then” was first recorded as a demo by John Lennon in 1977, and was completed decades later by Paul McCartney and Ringo Starr, with George Harrison’s guitar parts also incorporated into the final track.
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With the No. 7 debut, “Now and Then” becomes The Beatles’ 35th top 10 hit, and their first in 27 years. What does the future hold for “Now and Then” as viewed within the context of the band’s catalog? And will more classic artists try to revive older demos with newer technology? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. On a scale of 1-10 – 1 being crushed, 10 being elated – how excited should Beatles fans be about a No. 7 Hot 100 debut for “Now and Then,” considering the fanfare surrounding the release of the “final Beatles song”?
Eric Renner Brown: A 7? A 3? I’m not sure. It’s like that Don Draper “I don’t think of you at all” meme from Mad Men – I doubt fans are as invested in The Beatles’ performance on the chart as pop stans are for their favorites, and for executives, the part of the equation where chart position indicates current popularity or aids future success isn’t relevant here. It’s The Beatles! I doubt Hot 100 position matters much to them or their fans.
Gil Kaufman: 5 – Have to give it a neutral rating because, on the one hand, true Beatlebums have to be gobsmacked that a “new” song from their beloved band didn’t come in at No. 1! How in this universe could this song not top EVERY chart across the universe after such a long wait?! Then again, in the streaming era of the here today/gone later today music machine, a dusty, mechanically manipulated, decades-old demo of a sleepy song they rejected at least once before charting at all is pretty sweet, all considering.
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. “Now and Then” received a high-profile rollout and release, and obviously The Beatles remain culturally enormous, but still, this is a polished demo that was originally recorded over 40 years ago, so a top 10 debut is pretty remarkable. I only docked two points because landing at No. 1 on the Hot 100 with “Now and Then” would have not only been surreal for the Fab Four, but also extended their record of Hot 100 chart-toppers – the Beatles still have the most at 20 No. 1s, but every year, modern artists like Taylor Swift and Drake creep closer to that mark. Joe Lynch: A 9. As a lifelong Beatles devotee who liked but didn’t love “Now and Then,” I was still pretty excited to see this peak. It’s wild that 59 years after their first Hot 100 chart-topper they’re going top 10 with a new song. Hopes for it going No. 1 were a bit unreasonable: its Thursday release meant that first-week interest was split into two tracking periods (since the weekly charts begin a new tracking period each Friday); plus, it’s not exactly radio catnip, being a more melancholic tune than an earworm. (And really, does anyone think this deserves to be a new No. 1 in the Beatles catalog, which is regarded with almost Biblical reverence?) A top 10 entry – their record-extending 35th – is a perfect peak for this song.
Katie Atkinson: I’ll go with a 7 for No. 7! Yes, this was the “final Beatles song,” but there were also quite a few factors working against it, like its international premiere coming on Thursday morning, almost a full day before the U.S. chart tracking week begins. Plus, this is not an upbeat, poppy Beatles song. It’s emotional, yes, but not as melodically memorable as The Beatles’ biggest hits, or as their ’90s song releases. All things considered, I think a top 10 debut is a big win.
2. “Now and Then” debuts in the top 10 with 11 million streams, 2.1 million in radio reach and 73,000 physical and digital singles in its first full week. Do you think the song enjoyed a one-week burst in attention, or could you see it persisting as a new hit?
Eric Renner Brown: I’ve been wrong before, but this feels like a one-week burst in attention. I wouldn’t consider myself a Beatles obsessive, but I’m certainly a huge fan – the listen-to-all-the-demos-on-the-new-reissues tier fan – and “Now and Then” feels… completely inessential to me. The Beatles’ sound isn’t exactly in the zeitgeist either, currently. I don’t see it catching steam as a genuine hit, and I don’t see diehards listening to it enough to sustain a strong chart position.
Gil Kaufman: I think this track was lucky to come in with those numbers, which, honestly, feel tame-to-flop-ish considering the relentless hype around it. Keep in mind that a week before, a “From the Vault” song from Taylor Swift’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version), “Is It Over Now (Taylor’s Version),” debuted with 32 million streams and 4.7 million radio airplay impressions. Yes, she is a modern star, but The Beatles are forever stars – so given the tepid reaction, this song feels like a novelty with short legs that will slowly fade after the initial hype.
Jason Lipshutz: Probably a one-week burst, but since I’m generally in favor of “Now and Then” as a pop artifact, I could see the song performing well on streaming and sales platforms, and scoring a few scattered radio plays, over the next few months. Unreleased Beatles songs don’t come around very often, and “Now and Then” could catch on – maybe not as a new hit, but as a totem of fan appreciation, that spends extended time near the top of their catalog’s streams and sales figures.
Joe Lynch: I don’t think it’s going to disappear into nothingness. Interest in the song, and its inclusion on the expanded edition of the so-called Beatles Blue Album, will linger as the curious and the fanatical revisit what’s been promised as the final Beatles song. Do I think it will persist as a “hit”? No. As Christmas music encroaches on the Hot 100 and excitement over this song wanes, its Hot 100 life will be akin to Jimmy Nicol’s time with the Fab Four. Katie Atkinson: I’m thinking a one-week burst, though I imagine radio could hang around on certain formats (that is, if all of the AC stations playing it haven’t already made the switch to holiday music). As an aside, I hope Beatles fans aren’t sleeping on the new Red and Blue Album greatest-hits revamps that came out last week too, because the updated audio on those classic songs makes it sound like hearing them for the first time. If “Now and Then” just has a one-week pop of interest, those collections deserve to be an in-demand holiday gift over the next month-plus and years to come.
3. What were your expectations for “Now and Then” – and now that you’ve had over a week to experience it, would you say that the song met them?
Eric Renner Brown: I had no expectations. We have so many brilliant Beatles songs that aren’t going anywhere, and getting more – beyond the expanded reissues, which have troves of fascinating, curio-level demos and outtakes – was never a possibility I considered seriously. I can’t say that I’m disappointed, because I didn’t have any hopes for the song. But my lack of anticipation hasn’t made this a pleasantly-surprised-by-default situation. There’s an uncanny valley aspect to the whole endeavor that just makes me feel weird. Maybe I’d feel differently if the song was good enough to make me look past that.
Gil Kaufman: Knowing what I knew about the song, and then learned about its creation pre-release, it’s pretty much what I expected. It’s no revelation or holy grail, but it is a nice, sweet coda to the greatest rock story of all time. It didn’t change any perceptions or reveal anything monumental, but it sure was nice to hear Lennon’s vocals one last time. I wasn’t expecting that much and it lived up to those expectations. Won’t turn it off if it comes on, but won’t go looking for it, either.
Jason Lipshutz: My expectations were pretty low for “Now and Then” – they usually are for excavated demos – so to have the song join my regular rotation and bask in its pensive beauty has been quite the pleasant surprise. “Now and Then” is not a Beatles classic, but it was never going to be; instead, we have a collection of lovely melodies and luxurious production, packaged as a coda in 2023 but likely going to last as a charming deep cut in the years to come. Joe Lynch: As someone who greets the inevitable onslaught of AI-assisted resurrections with a grim resolution, I was relieved. AI was only used to clean up imperfections on shoddy tape, not to recreate or mimic anyone’s voice or guitar. (Incidentally, AI was used in precisely the same way on Peter Jackson’s justly celebrated Get Back documentary in 2021.) The song itself lacks the immediate melodicism that one associates with the Beatles, even on their filler tracks, but it’s likable in a swan song-y way. Given that my expectations existed in the space between dread and anxiety, I’m happy the song is well-intentioned, well-executed and solid. And for anyone claiming this is a stain on their legacy, well, you’re clearly not familiar with the 1982 abomination “The Beatles’ Movie Medley,” a Capitol-sanctioned single that somehow hit No. 12 on the Hot 100.
Katie Atkinson: I didn’t have any expectations about what it would sound like, but I was surprised that it’s such a quiet song. I now understand why “Free as a Bird” and “Real Love” got the nod as the ’90s song releases, because they’re more in line with some of The Beatles’ poppier songs, but I was mostly impressed by the emotional wallop of “Now and Then.” The way it was set up with the mini-documentary and the backstory about how all four Beatles contributed to the song over the decades was so poignant. It feels like an unexpectedly sweet gift from a band that truly owes fans nothing more than they’ve already brought to the world.
4. Considering that “Now and Then” scored a top 10 debut after it was first recorded as a demo in 1977, and completed decades later thanks to new technology, do you think we’re about to see an influx of classic artists using AI and modern software to perfect and release older material?
Eric Renner Brown: I fully expect there to be an influx, especially considering the swell in repurposing old hits for new ones. Audiences are more nostalgic now than ever. So many classic artists are gone, and the ones who are still around aren’t getting any younger. But ultimately, I don’t see this method being any more successful long-term on the charts than the outtakes dumps we see on reissues – that is to say, I don’t expect them to be successful, really. Many truly great artists achieved that distinction in part through outstanding quality control, and I think that when listeners dig beyond what artists released, they quickly discover previously unreleased material was shelved for a reason. Put another way: The Beatles could only debut at No. 7, and with a solid song. What “new” song from a classic artist would have a bigger draw than a “new,” respectable Beatles song?
Gil Kaufman: Probably, but this feels like such a unique, one-off kind of thing I hope we don’t start digging into the crates for unfinished songs from beloved artists that won’t significantly add to their legacies, if not outright despoil them. A good friend who is a major rock band manager once told me, “If they didn’t release it as a single or even include it 11 tracks deep, you probably don’t need/want to hear it.”
Jason Lipshutz: Probably, although most of those attempts won’t likely achieve the chart impact of “Now and Then,” simply because no other artists possess The Beatles’ timeless stature. If technology allows artists to revisit garbled or incomplete material and freshen it up, though, they should do it, by all means. Why leave something on the cutting room floor if you feel like you now have the tools and desire to make it presentable to the world? Joe Lynch: Absolutely. Anyone pretending AI isn’t going to change the reissue/remaster/catalog game has their head in the sand. I fear – well, let’s be honest, know – that ethical questions about dead artists and AI will be secondary to profitability, but I’m heartened to see that in this case, everyone’s priorities seemed straight. AI was used to improve a worn-out tape, not to create anything new. Fingers crossed that those in charge of the estates of our late icons take the same care when using AI for potential future releases.
Katie Atkinson: It is exciting to think that this technology could salvage spotty archival audio from late legends, especially with the blessing of living collaborators and family members like in this case. I think hearing those two letters – “AI” – from Paul McCartney in an interview months ago scared a lot of music purists, but seeing this materialize feels like the best-case scenario for how the technology can be used.
5. Fill in the blank: the long-dormant artist who I’d be most excited to get a “final” new song from would be _______. Eric Renner Brown: Robert Johnson… there have to be more 78s out there somewhere.
Gil Kaufman: Kurt Cobain. Duh. Despite my previous answer.
Jason Lipshutz: Daft Punk. If our favorite French robots unveiled one final dance single before officially hanging up their helmets, I would expect a full-on, five-alarm banger. Let’s hope that they have even more than that for us someday, though.
Joe Lynch: Led Zeppelin. The reissues have shown us that plenty of material was left on the floor, and there’s gotta be some bonkers Bonzo drumming out there that the remaining three-fourths of the band could finish off.
Katie Atkinson: Freddie Mercury with Queen. Knowing how active the band has remained, just wrapping up a new tour with Adam Lambert, the idea of getting to hear Freddie’s restored vocals on one more bombastic Queen hit is very tempting.
The Year of Taylor just keeps rolling: on this week’s Billboard chart, Taylor Swift reigns with the biggest sales week of her career, as well as a new Hot 100 chart-topper replacing a different Swift song at No. 1. 1989 (Taylor’s Version), the fourth release in the superstar’s six-album re-recording project, earned 1.653 million equivalent album units in its debut week, scoring Swift her 13th No. 1 on the Billboard 200; that’s the biggest equivalent album units total for an album since Adele’s 25 in 2015, and also marks Swift’s largest sales week (1.359 million) to date.
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Meanwhile, “Is It Over Now? (Taylor’s Version),” one of five “From the Vault” tracks from the album, debuts at No. 1 on this week’s Hot 100 chart, giving Swift her 11th career chart-topper. And “Is It Over Now?” replaces her 10th Hot 100 No. 1, “Cruel Summer,” at the top, after the Lover fan favorite spent two weeks at the peak of the chart.
Which of Swift’s latest chart feats is more impressive? And have we just experienced the biggest month of her career? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. With 1.653 million equivalent album units, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) gives Taylor Swift the largest week for any album, by units earned, since 2015, and easily becomes the biggest debut week for a Taylor’s Version album thus far. What do you think is the biggest reason for the monster debut? Danielle Pascual: If I had to pinpoint the moment Taylor solidified her place as a pop superstar, it would be after she dropped the original 1989 in 2014. During this album cycle, she racked up three Hot 100 No. 1s (“Shake It Off,” “Blank Space,” “Bad Blood”), spent 11 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, embarked on her massive first stadium tour and scored multiple Grammys, including album of the year. This was the era she started most interacting with fans — on social media (especially Tumblr), hosting listening parties for fans in her home pre-album release (the ‘Secret Sessions’), and even sending Christmas gifts to especially active fans (‘Swiftmas’). She also made headlines for a number of other reasons during this time — whether related to her open letter to Apple Music (in which she removed the album from the platform to advocate for artist rights) or her always-speculated dating life. The press cycle for the original project began nearly a decade ago, but it remains the album the general public is most familiar with, while still being regarded as a favorite for Swifties and critics alike.
Hannah Dailey: I think that 1989 was always an album for the people, not just Swifties; in fact, it converted a lot of people into Swift fans back in the day. It’s still her most chart- and radio-friendly album, full of hits that still wouldn’t feel out of place on the radio today (“Blank Space,” “Wildest Dreams,” “Shake it Off”). Plus, the recovered “Vault” song lore (allegedly) about her most high-profile relationship to date (ahem, Mr. Styles) doesn’t hurt, either.
Jason Lipshutz: When 1989 (Taylor’s Version) was announced in August, I outlined the monumental success of the original 1989, with key numbers that explained why the album stands out as a commercial and critical high in a career full of them. That era’s enormity is the main reason why this Taylor’s Version bow dwarfs the others’ debut weeks, its sugary pop exterior and chart-topping hits just too undeniable for longtime fans and casual listeners. Despite coming at a very busy time in the extended Swift universe, the arrival of 1989 (Taylor’s Version) was always going to be too big to fail.
Katie Atkinson: The combination of Taylor’s most commercially successful album, combined with the groundswell of support around her Taylor’s Version re-recording mission, was bound to yield extraordinary results. Basically, the first half of Swift’s career was all leading up to the blockbuster success of 1989, and the second half of her career has all been leading up to her largest-ever sales week. It feels implausible that an artist as huge as Taylor still has higher heights to hit, 17 years in.
Kyle Denis: Obviously, a debut of this size is the result of many compounding reasonings, but I think the majority of the credit should be attributed to Swift’s momentum right now. Despite fairly sparse social media activity and a rest period for her Eras Tour, her new romance with Travis Kelce has made her a virtually inescapable media presence across sports, film and music. That kind of visibility, combined with her already having the No. 1 song in the country, probably helped push 1989 (Taylor’s Version) to its massive debut. I was always certain that 1989 (TV) would debut with over one million units, but I think it’s Swift’s overall career momentum that helped that number inch past Midnights’ 1.57 million debut.
2. While Swift scores the single-largest sales week for any of her albums (not just her Taylor’s Version albums!), “Is It Over Now?,” a “From the Vault” song from 1989 (Taylor’s Version), replace another Swift song, “Cruel Summer,” atop the Hot 100 chart. Which of the two accomplishments is more impressive to you?
Danielle Pascual: Both stats are widely impressive, but scoring the single-largest sales week for any of her albums is huge. Taylor didn’t really change up her physical format strategy for her latest Taylor’s Version — since Folklore, she’s released the album with multiple variations on vinyl and CD (including signed copies), as well as a cassette. Plus, when 1989 debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in 2014, it scored the single-largest sales week for an album since 2002. The fact that the Taylor’s Version replaced the original album from that top spot speaks to the power of her re-recording journey and fans’ desire for more.
Hannah Dailey: They’re both major, but I’d say her album sales record takes the cake. She’s always been remarkable because of her continued success with LPs, even during periods when public/generational appreciation for the album art form was on the decline. The fact that she’s still outdoing herself in that category is incredible.
Jason Lipshutz: While Swift scoring her largest career sales week at this point in an already storied career is a gargantuan feat, the fact that she was able to replace a song of hers from 2019, with a “From the Vault” song originally conceived for her 2014 album, at the top of the Hot 100 in the year 2023, feels even more mind-boggling as an achievement. Most artists need to release brand new songs to top the charts — not Swift, who has become so dominant in popular music that her songs can travel through time to No. 1.
Katie Atkinson: Ooh, they’re both crazy. But I’m going with the sales week because she’s already replaced herself atop the Hot 100 previously – when “Blank Space” unseated “Shake It Off” back in 2015 from, you guessed it, 1989. In fact, she’s still the only woman to ever replace herself at No. 1 on the chart. Getting these album sales numbers in 2023, let alone her highest-ever album in a career of highs, is next-level.
Kyle Denis: Definitely the album sales accomplishments. Considering that the original 1989 has already sold millions of copies – and keeping in mind the decline in overall albums sales activity over the past decade – the fact that Swift was able to snag this record in a career that already boasts five albums with opening weeks of over 1 million units is simply astounding. She’s technically already sent a “From the Vault” song to No. 1, so while congratulations are certainly in order, it’s not the most remarkable achievement of the past week for Swift.
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3. Do you think “Is it Over Now?” is in for an extended run as a new Swift hit, or do you think another “From the Vault” track has a better shot at ubiquity?
Danielle Pascual: At this point, I think “Is It Over Now?” will continue as the standout. There is plenty of chatter surrounding the song online — it even has a TikTok dance that grows more viral everyday. It’s the type of upbeat pop song we’d expect (and want) from the album that marked Taylor’s departure from country and true foray into pop.
Hannah Dailey: If any of the “Vault” tracks has a shot, it’s “Now That We Don’t Talk.” It’s a classic Swift earworm with relatable lyrics (minus the “mega yacht” part), and a lot of traction on TikTok.
Jason Lipshutz: “Say Don’t Go” is my personal favorite of the 1989 (Taylor’s Version) “From the Vault” songs, but the more I listen to “Is It Over Now?,” the more I appreciate its sonic nuance, lyrical detail (particularly the “three hundred takeout coffees later!,” which plays on my head in a loop) and the emotional rush of the physical movements involved in the chorus. “Is It Over Now?” Is both catchy and understated in a way that sounds durable at radio, and considering how well it’s already doing on streaming platforms, the song appears to be in for a long run at or near the top of the Hot 100. Katie Atkinson: I agree with our own Jason Lipshutz (oh hi, Jason!) that “Say Don’t Go” is the “From the Vault” winner on 1989 (Taylor’s Version). I don’t know that another “Vault” track could top the chart, but I could see it having the longest shelf life of the new batch of songs. I think more than anything, I’ll be curious to see which “From the Vault” tracks Taylor might pull out at her upcoming Eras Tour stops for the acoustic set. I definitely hope to see “Say Don’t Go” performed live.
Kyle Denis: I don’t see “Is It Over Now?” having much longevity at the top of the Hot 100, nor do I think any of the other “From the Vault” tracks will experience that fate. As commercially successful as the Taylor’s Version endeavor continues to be, just one “From the Vault” track has made any kind of lasting commercial impact beyond its first week of availability – and that was 10-minute update of a decade-old fan favorite and cult classic (“All Too Well (10 Minute/Taylor’s Version)”).
4. Within the span of one month, Swift’s Eras Tour concert film bowed big at the box office, “Cruel Summer” finally reached the top of the Hot 100 and 1989 (Taylor’s Version) scored the biggest sales week of her career (while also producing another Hot 100 chart-topper). Have we just witnessed the most dominant 30 days of Swift’s entire career? Danielle Pascual: Yes — and I think that will turn into the most dominant 60 days of her career. Just this week, for instance, Taylor returns for her blockbuster Eras tour after a three-month break, and she’s a front-runner for 2024 Grammy nominations with Midnights (set to be announced on Friday). Plus, Swifties believe a reputation (Taylor’s Version) announcement is imminent by year’s end, which will likely make a slew of new records of its own. What Barbra Walters once said seems to be true now more than ever: “Taylor Swift is the music industry.”
Hannah Dailey: So far? I’d say yes. But knowing her, I’d be hesitant to say that this is the most dominant she’ll ever be, only because she always seems to find a way to top herself. I’m curious whether this will light a fire under her to replicate the success she’s seeing now from her older material with new music down the line.
Jason Lipshutz: Yes. Throughout her career, Swift has enjoyed periods of multiple hits from the same project competing for space near the top of the Hot 100, huge album debuts, major awards and sold-out stadium runs — but this month feels singular, as if her presence in popular music is the same as popular music itself. She’s firing on all cylinders, across multiple mediums and eras, and has zero peers on her level. It’s an unparalleled run, and breathtaking to witness.
Katie Atkinson: Man, I thought that was back in July when Taylor was in the thick of her headline-dominating Eras Tour and had just released Speak Now (Taylor’s Version), only to have three songs from three different albums in the Hot 100 top 10 — “I Can See You (Taylor’s Version) (From the Vault)” (Speak Now, No. 5), “Cruel Summer” (Lover, No. 9) and the “Karma” remix featuring Ice Spice (Midnights, No. 10) — and of course the re-recorded 2010 album at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. But yeah, somehow, this surpasses even that.
Kyle Denis: Yes. As I said earlier, her current momentum is almost unparalleled.
5. Now that 1989 (Taylor’s Version) has been out for over a week, has your opinion changed on any of the hits (or existing album cuts) from the album?
Danielle Pascual: I don’t think so! As a lifelong Swiftie who saw Taylor live for the first time during the 1989 tour, my favorite songs off the original album are still my favorite songs today: “New Romantics,” “Clean” and “Out of the Woods.” I still think “Shake It Off” gets more hate than it deserves, and “Bad Blood” is her worst single off the album (though I recognize how important it was for her career). I do think this slew of “From the Vault” songs is my favorite out of all her Taylor’s Version re-recordings so far, and am excited to see how they’ll fare over time.
Hannah Dailey: This is the only Taylor’s Version so far to make me wish that the “Vault” songs had made it onto the actual track list, even if it were at the expense of songs on the original listing. I would’ve rather had “Say Don’t Go” over “All You Had to Do Was Stay,” “Now That We Don’t Talk” over “I Wish You Would” and “Is It Over Now?” over “How You Get The Girl” – as much as I love every one of those songs. I think this new light shed on her track list choices serves as further proof that her primary focus with 1989 was to make a super-polished pop album that maybe wasn’t quite as vulnerable as her past work, but more palatable to a wider audience. Granted, this approach obviously worked out well for her career at the time, with 1989 spending 11 weeks atop the Billboard 200, and securing a second album of the year Grammy win.
Jason Lipshutz: “Blank Space” remains the most perfect single from that album, but “Wildest Dreams” has turned into a personal favorite, maybe more than any of the 1989 hits. The sweep of the hook! The urgency of the final chorus! I appreciate it all a little bit more now than I did nine years ago.
Katie Atkinson: The hits? No! 1989 is still perfect. And this might be my favorite batch of “From the Vault” tracks of any Taylor’s Version album so far, just because most of them would feel at home on her new albums, too.
Kyle Denis: Still a massive fan of 1989, but having sat with the re-recording for over a week, I don’t think 1989 (Taylor’s Version) does justice to the original. Nonetheless, I do really enjoy “Slut!”
They may still be best associated with the late ’90s, but pop-punk greats Blink-182 now have a Billboard 200 No. 1 album in each of the first three decades of the ’00s: 2002’s Take Off Your Pants and Jacket, 2016’s California, and now this year’s One More Time…
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The Oct. 21-released set — the trio’s first LP with original co-leader Tom DeLonge since 2011’s Neighborhoods, with Matt Skiba filling in for him for most of the decade-plus in between — posts 125,000 equivalent album units in its debut week, just getting it past the 120,000 moved by Drake’s For All the Dogs in its third frame. It’s a significant improvement from the 94,000 units notched by Blink’s prior album Nine (2019), which bowed at No. 3 on the chart.
How did Blink manage such a stellar showing a full three decades after their 1993 debut EP? And what could their peers learn from their success? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Blink-182’s One More Time… debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in its debut week with 125,000 equivalent album units, narrowly edging out Drake’s For All the Dogs in its third week. On a scale from 1 to 182, how big an accomplishment would you say that is for a 30-year-old rock band in 2023?
Kyle Denis: 116. Amid talk about the changes in genre trends this year, and while rock music has been present near the top of the Billboard 200 through new albums from the likes of Zach Bryan, Olivia Rodrigo, Lil Uzi Vert, Jelly Roll and Noah Kahan, One More Time is the first full-fledged rock album from an instrument-based band to reach the top of the ranking this calendar year. That’s a major feat, especially for a band whose last legitimate crossover hit is around the same age as some of Gen Z’s biggest pop stars.
Josh Glicksman: A rock solid 164. Let’s face it: the peak of the Billboard 200 isn’t often reserved for legacy acts these days. The only other rock bands with more than 30 years pedigree to reach No. 1 this decade are AC/DC and Red Hot Chili Peppers, with Power Up in 2020 and Unlimited Love in 2022, respectively. Drake is the only other artist over 35 years old to reach the top slot this year. Sure, Blink-182 benefits from releasing an album during a relatively tame week for competition, but even so, the feat isn’t anything to downplay.
Jason Lipshutz: A 180! Considering how difficult it is for veteran rock bands to impact the mainstream in 2023, Blink-182’s past year — which includes multiple rock hits crossing over to the Billboard Hot 100, a huge arena tour and now a No. 1 album with a six-figure debut — has been uniquely commanding. Topping the Billboard 200 is partially a symptom of One More Time avoiding the bigger pop release weeks this month, but even so, starting with 125,000 equivalent album units is pretty damn impressive, and the cherry on top of a major return.
Andrew Unterberger: Definitely 134. It’s more an affirmation of what we already know about the band’s continued endurance — just a half year after they stepped in to fill Frank Ocean’s vacated Coachella headlining slot and just a few days after they announced an upcoming U.S. stadium trek — then any new or revelatory breakthrough. But given how unseriously pop-punk was taken as a genre 20-30 years ago, and how hairy things looked for Blink-182’s future prospects just a decade earlier, it’s still definitely one for the resumé for the trio to still be putting up A-list numbers in 2023.
Christine Werthman: The correct answer is 182. This is the first studio effort from the longtime lineup of Tom DeLonge, Mark Hoppus and Travis Barker since 2012, and sure, it’s less bratty and more wizened than the band’s late-1990s, early-2000s skate-punk output, but it’s not a total reinvention. The trio gave the people what they wanted — a reunion, a tried-and-true sound — and the fans showed up. Blink-182 topped Drake! In 2023! Yes, in his third week, but it still counts! Chalk it up as a huge win.
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2. Few of Blink’s ’90s peers are still posting six-digit first weeks in the 2020s, especially after the elimination of ticket bundles from Billboard 200 sales calculations a few years ago. What’s one thing you think the band did particularly well with One More Time to make such a big debut week possible?
Kyle Denis: Given that One More Time is the band’s first LP since the return of Tom DeLonge, there was already a level of inherent comeback hype baked into the record. Couple that with a smart, lengthy campaign that let each pre-release single run its course – both “Edging” and the title track topped Alternative Airplay – and you’re left with a rollout that is primarily concerned with activating their tried-and-true fanbase instead of radically changing their sound to court younger consumers. To that end, however, the social clout of Travis Barker and Kourtney Kardashian’s marriage likely brought a few new, younger listeners to the blink-182 fandom. Moreover, blink-182 (in its original configuration) came back at the right time considering the mainstream resurgence of pop-punk at the top of the decade.
Josh Glicksman: An extended album rollout. Quickly following the reunion announcement last October with a new single stoked initial hype, and the band carried the momentum through album release day by touring across the world — including at a whole bunch of major festivals — and made sure everyone knew that a project was on the way. It’s not a strategy I’d suggest for major pop stars of the moment, but for a reunion project from a long-tenured band like Blink-182, allowing momentum to steadily grow over the course of a year paid huge dividends.
Jason Lipshutz: The year-long rollout of the release — in which lead single “Edging” was released almost exactly one year prior to One More Time — proved surprisingly effective, since Blink was able to tour arenas and festivals (including Coachella and When We Were Young) for six months and galvanize their fan base ahead of the new album. Maybe One More Time doesn’t hit No. 1 if it was released last October, before hundreds of thousands of fans got to see their impressive headlining set and receive a reminder that, when it comes to their studio output, Mark, Tom and Travis rarely miss.
Andrew Unterberger: The reunion with DeLonge and the feel-good story behind it is almost certainly the biggest factor in this set’s strong performance — but the group did do a good job of leaning into it (both in the album’s lyrics and promotion) just enough to tug the heartstrings but not enough to cheapen it. And the songs are pretty good! That helps.
Christine Werthman: They say timing is everything, and Blink-182 certainly proved that by reuniting right when pop-punk was regaining popularity and the nostalgia for those 1990s and 2000s bands was peaking. The tour and the album could not have been more perfectly positioned for success.
3. One More Time was preceded by two Hot 100-charting, rock radio-dominating singles in “Edging” and the title track. Do either of them seem like enduring future-classic entries in the Blink canon to you, or is their success more due to name recognition and good timing?
Kyle Denis: I’m leaning towards name recognition and good timing, but I could see “Edging” sticking around as late-career classic.
Josh Glicksman: I don’t know that “Edging” is ever going to supplant the biggest crowd pleasers in the band’s catalog — which is more of a testament to Blink-182’s turn of the century heyday than anything else — but it’s still a hell of a lead single and will be a welcome listen mixed into any greatest hits compilation. Of course, the name recognition and proximity to the reunion announcement helped the song, but the fact that it holds up as well as it does more than a year later means it has plenty of legs to swim on its own power, too.
Jason Lipshutz: I’ve become a big fan of “Edging,” especially after seeing it as a sing-along moment in concert. At first, the single struck me as watered-down hijinks, but those melodies jangle with snotty joy, and the hook is great to yelp along to when your car stereo is a little too loud. The title track packs an emotional wallop, but “Edging” is the new Blink single I’ll be returning to over the next few years.
Andrew Unterberger: I think “Edging” is the better song of the two, but the title track might be the more likely one to endure, just because of what it represents in the band’s story. I could see it becoming a go-to live set-ender or encore over the years, if nothing else.
Christine Werthman: “Edging” feels more in line with the canon, but the title track might be the one that lingers because it’s so revealing. For a band seemingly obsessed with never growing up or acting its age, “One More Time” shows Blink-182 grappling with the inevitable. It’s such a singular track in the group’s catalog that the enduring emo singalong could become a staple.
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4. Blink’s third career act is likely going much better than anyone could’ve predicted it would at the height of the acrimony between the band’s classic lineup. Is there anything that other rock legacy acts could learn from their example, or are their accomplishments unique to their circumstances?
Kyle Denis: Age gracefully, stay true to your sound, and focus on activating your existing fanbase and reaching them where they are currently at. Oh, and get with a Kardashian too.
Josh Glicksman: I’d lean more toward the latter, but there’s plenty to glean from the band’s continued success. Blink-182 has done a phenomenal job of embracing the next wave of artists in rock and pop-punk. It’s all too easy to “get off my lawn” a new generation, but the three of them — and Barker in particular — have championed newcomers in a way that allows rising stars to garner the wisdom of the past while shaping the future of the genres. That goes an extremely long way in terms of introducing today’s listeners to the band’s catalog.
Jason Lipshutz: It all feels too serendipitous for other rock bands to study: Mark Hoppus’ cancer diagnosis and successful battle could never have been foreseen, and when their classic lineup reunited, exactly enough time had been between its last studio album and proper tour that demand for both was always going to be high. This Blink-182 comeback arrived at the end of a winding road, but the timing was right, the music was solid, and it’s proven to be a huge achievement.
Andrew Unterberger: Much of it is irreplicable, but I think Blink-182 do a good job of toeing the line between reviving the sound and spirit of their “classic” period while also making room for both musical evolution and lyrical honestly about their current lives. It’s a difficult balance to strike — many of their peers don’t even really seem to try — but it really helps a band like them maintain (and even grow) an audience this deep into their career.
Christine Werthman: The band got lucky with the return of pop-punk, but there are some lessons here for those artists who currently refuse to give it another go. Lesson one: Listen to “One More Time” and realize that it’s never too late to put aside the drama and get back to doing what you love with the people you once loved. Lesson two: Check out those Boxscore numbers. Blink-182 earned more than $85 million from its North American leg, a figure that, though likely rare for reunions, could soften even the hardest of hearts.
5. What’s another ’90s-popular rock band that you could see scoring a future No. 1 album this decade?
Kyle Denis: My money’s on Green Day. Their new record is dropping in January, and with a stadium tour set to follow, that’ll be a rollout worth observing.
Josh Glicksman: It’s not an overwhelmingly bold prediction given the band has two top-10 albums this decade, but Foo Fighters feels more than capable of returning to the top of the chart in the next few years.
Jason Lipshutz: Did you know that Push and Shove, the comeback album from No Doubt after 11 years apart, is now over a decade old itself? That band’s biggest hits have endured, while Gwen Stefani still has plenty of cultural cache thanks to The Voice and her solo career. Let’s follow the One More Time playbook and get a punchy new single, career-spanning arena tour and surprisingly emotional album together ASAP!
Andrew Unterberger: Radiohead is a band whose reputation and popularity never really seem to diminish over the passing years. If they were to release a follow-up to 2016’s A Moon Shaped Pool in the next few years — particularly if they just kinda sprung it on fans, In Rainbows-style — I bet it would have a pretty good shot at capturing the top spot.
Christine Werthman: No Doubt. They’ve got about two years until the 30th anniversary of Tragic Kingdom, so start rehearsing, schedule some reunion shows and parlay that old familiar feeling into some writing sessions for a new album. C’mon, Gwen and Tony!
Five years ago, the Billboard 200 had never had a predominantly Spanish-language album top its rankings. Now, Bad Bunny has done it three albums in a row.
The recent SNL host’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana completes the hat trick this week, as the new set follows 2020’s El Último Tour Del Mundo and 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti to No. 1, debuting with 185,000 equivalent album units (while charting all 22 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100). Though the first-week number is easily tops for the week, it is down a decent amount from Verano, which bowed with 274,000 units in May 2022.
How does the Nadie Sabie debut compare to our expectations? And where do we rank Bad Bunny among the greatest pop stars of 2023? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana debuts with 185,000 first-week units — easily the top mark for the week, though nearly 90,000 shy of the 274,000 posted in May 2022 by Un Verano Sin Ti in its first frame. Is that 185,000 number higher, lower or about what you expected from the new album’s early performance?
Leila Cobo: Honestly, the number is a little lower than I expected, especially given that it had the most single-day Spotify streams of any 2023 album so far. Having said that, it’s still an enormous showing, and the fact that Benito has managed to score his third consecutive Spanish-language No. 1 on the Billboard 200 is a huge feat, unprecedented in Latin music.
Kyle Denis: I would say it’s lower that what I was expecting. I wasn’t necessarily expecting a bigger debut than Un Verano Sin Ti, but after the unparalleled success of that album, I’m a bit shocked and underwhelmed by a decline of almost 90,000 units.
Isabela Raygoza: It’s possible that the 185,000-unit debut number for Nadie Sabe is slightly lower than some might have expected. However, it’s essential to recognize the remarkable feat of Bad Bunny maintaining a strong and lasting presence in the music industry. Even if the numbers didn’t quite match his previous albums, his influence on pop culture keeps expanding. The fact that he hosted and performed on SNL last Saturday, alongside icons like Mick Jagger and Lady Gaga, is a testament to his ever-rising star. So, while the sales figures may be a bit lower, his overall impact and significance continue to grow.
Jessica Roiz: From the get-go, I didn’t think this album would have higher numbers than Un Verano Sin Ti. I feel that last year, not only were many fans eagerly waiting for Un Verano to drop but it also garnered a whole new wave of curious listeners due to its very experimental titles that included merengue, dembow, bossa nova, and indie-pop. Nadie Sabe, on the other hand, is more niche and mostly all Latin trap, which might not be everyone’s cup of tea. However, one thing’s certain, Bad Bunny is a master at reclaiming his throne.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a little lower than I expected, though there was definitely a perfect-storm element to Verano‘s debut that I’m not surprised he didn’t quite match a second time. And what really defined the success of that album was more its endurance anyway — including 13 weeks atop the Billboard 200 — so the real test of whether this album can match its predecessor’s impact is still to come.
2. Bad Bunny stayed fairly active as a recording artist in between his two albums, releasing a number of one-off singles and collaborations — a few of which appear on Nadie Sabe, but most of which do not. Do you think those in-between releases helped excitement for the new album, hurt it, or had no major impact on it?
Leila Cobo: Bad Bunny is a maverick when it comes to promoting (or not promoting) his albums. You truly don’t know what he’s going to do, or as he says, “Hago lo que me da la gana”. I think his fans revel in the uncertainty: Will he release an album? Will he not? Is he taking a break? Is he going on tour? Which is a long way to say that I don’t think anything he did or didn’t do affected the performance of this album. Bad Bunny is at a stage in his career where he can do no wrong, where people are eager to hear his music and where he now has broad, universal recognition — not just for his music, but as a cultural phenomenon.
Kyle Denis: I’d say that some of those in-between releases hurt the excitement for the upcoming record. Neither “Where She Goes” nor “Un Preview” did much damage on the charts outside of their respective release weeks, and his crossover collaborations with Travis Scott (“K-Pop”) and Drake (“Gently”) weren’t received particularly well either. In fact, outside of “Coco Chanel” (with Eladio Carrión), Benito’s biggest song of the year is his “Un x100to” team-up with Grupo Frontera, which is rooted in a regional Mexican style that Nadie Sabe mostly avoids. Perhaps more importantly, his romance with Kendall Jenner put a damper on his likability for a significant chunk of his core fans, which could very well have impacted how many of them tuned into the album upon release.
Isabela Raygoza: It’s challenging to determine the exact impact of Bad Bunny’s in-between releases on Nadie Sabe. Each artist has their unique strategy, and what worked for him in the past, like surprise album drops, may not necessarily yield the same results every time. While he did provide fans with a brief heads-up this time (even if it’s 4 days in advance), it’s a departure from the approach of artists who announce their album releases months in advance. So, it’s possible that the in-between releases had some impact on the album’s reception, but it’s difficult to quantify precisely how it affected the excitement for the new album.
Jessica Roiz: No Bad Bunny song can ever be hurtful, IMO. But I do feel that tracks such as “Where She Goes” and “Un Preview,” though they are two of my personal favorite ones in the new album, did not have the impact they should have — at least not on TikTok, where so many of his songs created a buzz in the past. With the former release, fans were uncertain if it hinted at a new album or not; whereas the latter release, because of its title, built real excitement and curiosity that more music was on the way.
Andrew Unterberger: I do wonder if the steady stream of music in between the two albums had a bit of a dampening effect on Nadie Sabe‘s debut — especially since the biggest hit of the bunch, “Un x100to,” was the least likely to be included on this album or even really feel like it’s part of the same era. I wouldn’t mind seeing what Bad Bunny could do on his next album if he released it without any advance tracks and after a (brief) time outside of the spotlight.
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3. All 22 of the album’s tracks debut on the Hot 100 this week, led by the No. 5-entering “Monaco.” Do you think it will end up the biggest hit from the album, or is its highest debut mostly due to its top New Music Friday playlist placement and early appearance in the album’s tracklist?
Leila Cobo: I personally love “Monaco.” I love its moodiness and its Charles Aznavour references (who knew??) But I don’t think it will be the biggest hit on the album. I think that will go to one of the more rhythmic tracks that are still finding their way into listeners’ ears, much as what happened with “Tití Me Preguntó” and Un Verano. However, unlike with “Titi,” I’m not clear on what that peak single would be –although I’m a fan of “Hibiki”; I like the dance beats and I think Benito is particularly good on these more melodic, uptempo tracks.
Kyle Denis: The “Dime (Ey; dime), dime, ¿esto es lo que tú quería’?” lyric is already catching on over at TikTok, so I can definitely see “Monaco” growing into a steady hit, and perhaps the album’s biggest single. I would also keep an eye on “Fina” (with Young Miko) and “Perro Negro” (with Feid).
Isabela Raygoza: We were quick to recognize the potential of “Monaco” by ranking it as the album’s second-best track, just below “Acho PR.” “Monaco” stands out due to its lineup of featured artists (De La Ghetto, Arcángel, and Ñengo Flow) and a captivating sample that gives it a timeless quality. We’ve seen that songs with more featured guests tend to generate more streams, but even as a solo Bunny track, “Monaco” boasts a menacing violin riff that immediately grabs the listener’s attention, and his conviction in the track is powerful.
However, it’s also possible that “Acho PR” might gain more popularity over time. In fact, I’m placing my bet on that possibility. The dynamics of music popularity can change, and while “Monaco” had an impressive debut, it’s challenging to predict which track will ultimately become the biggest hit from the album. Both songs have their unique strengths, and it will be interesting to see how their popularity unfolds in the coming weeks and months.
Jessica Roiz: Given that it’s the song he used to announce his new album and it’s the actual focus track of the set, I can see why “Monaco” charted high on the Hot 100 and is No. 1 on Hot Latin Songs. I’ve also seen a lot of people use the sound on social media, mainly drawn by its avant-garde trap fusion backed by the elegant violin and piano melodies heardon French-Armenian singer Charles Aznavour’s 1964 song “Hier Encore.” Now will it remain the biggest hit from the album? Only time will tell. But I do see two fan-favorites already boiling up on social media with the potential of becoming even bigger bangers: “Perro Negro” with Feid and “Fina” with Young Miko.
Andrew Unterberger: I wasn’t sure on it the first time I heard it, but I was sold on “Monaco” from Bad Bunny’s impressively staged and delivered performance of it on SNL last weekend. I dunno for sure if it’ll end up the album’s biggest, but it does sound like a real hit to me.
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4. Does Bad Bunny try anything on Nadie Sabe that you find particularly new and/or exciting? What song would you like to hear take off from it in the weeks to come?
Leila Cobo: I think Benito is becoming more and more atmospheric the more his career develops. Case in point is the aforementioned “Monaco,” which really goes out on a limb. It’s a bravado track through and through, but it’s set to an almost romantic beat; it throws you off, those lyrics against that musical backdrop. The tone was set with “Where She Goes,” which also has multiple mood layers.
Kyle Denis: I’m really enjoying Benito’s foray into drill alongside Eladio Carrión on “Thunder y Lightning.” It’s a nice reprieve from the Latin trap that dominates Nadie Sabe, and it would be cool to see drill get some real chart success in Spanish after dominating the Top 40 space with “Barbie World” this summer.
Isabela Raygoza: Bad Bunny’s exploration of new and exciting territory on Nadie extends beyond the album itself. This year, he showcased his versatility by delving into Mexican cumbia alongside Grupo Frontera and releasing “Where She Goes,” a single from the album that incorporates Jersey Club elements. Notably, the music video for the song features a cameo by Lil Uzi Vert, symbolizing a seal of approval from the Jersey Club purveyor. There’s also the Dominican dembow of “Cybertruck.” While the album may not represent a radical departure from his previous work, Bad Bunny’s return to trap is a full-circle moment for the artist who gained fame in 2016 for globalizing Latin trap. If there’s a song I’d like to hear take off it’s the intro track “Nadie Sabe,” a personal statement of Bad Bunny in 2023 that brims with conviction and authenticity.
Jessica Roiz: More than his ever-innovative trap beats (for example in “Monaco” and “Vou787”), what excites me most about Nadie Sabe is its lyrical content. Unlike Un Verano, which was about being in love and summers in Puerto Rico, Nadie Sabe is about the downfalls, the wins, the life lessons. The heartfelt opening partial title track, “Nadie Sabe” — all about the good and bad of being as famous as he is — is testament to that, and “Los Pits” is all about conquering the world and being the best in the game. As for songs I would like to hear take off from the set … without a doubt, “Acho PR.” The track is an honest ode to his Puerto Rican culture and those who believed in him, featuring three artists that paved the way for the new generations: Ñengo Flow, De La Ghetto, and Arcangel.
Andrew Unterberger: Give me the dark, Drive-ready electro-pop of “Baticano.” And while we’re at it, give me a remake of Drive starring Benito in Ryan Gosling’s role as The Driver.
5. Last year, Billboard‘s staff named Bad Bunny the greatest pop star of 2022. We’re not done yet with 2023, of course — but based on his year so far, when we do our 2023 rankings, around where do you think he should fall: still No. 1, in the top 5, in the top 10, or not on the list at all?
Leila Cobo: I think he should definitely make the top five. I don’t think he’ll be No. 1 simply because this is a late-year release, and also because he hasn’t toured in 2023. But Benito has definitely become a staple of pop music and culture.
Kyle Denis: Off his consistent streaming numbers, the deafening buzz for his upcoming tour, and Nadie’s handsome debut, I’d say he’s got a spot in the top 10 secured.
Isabela Raygoza: I’d place him in the top five for 2023. The last few years have undoubtedly been dominated by Bad Bunny, and his consistent success on various mainstream charts is a testament to his influence. The fact that Nadie Sabe is the fourth all-Spanish album to top the Billboard 200 further underscores his achievement. However, it’s important to note that the rise of música mexicana on a global scale, and Peso Pluma’s Hot 100 dominance could present a challenge.
Jessica Roiz: Bad Bunny has achieved historic records that no other artist has in Latin music, and even if he’s on tour or not, releasing music or not, he will always be a force to be reckoned with. But if I were to choose, I think Karol G should be at No. 1 in this year’s ranking, with Bad Bunny in the top five.
Andrew Unterberger: Top 10 for sure, and maybe an argument for top five if he ends the year strong — but tough for him to immediately repeat the dream season he had in 2022.
After a series of delays, on Oct. 6, Drake finally returned with his long-awaited eighth official solo studio album (not counting mixtapes, collaborative efforts or “playlists”): the 23-track, 84-minute For All the Dogs.
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Like nearly every other project of Drake’s career, Dogs debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 this week — with 402,000 equivalent album units, almost exactly equal to the 404,000 for his 21 Savage teamup Her Loss last November. The set also charts all 23 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100, led by the No. 1-bowing, J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter.” However, despite its commercial success, the set has drawn mostly mediocre reviews from critics (and hip-hop pundits like Joe Budden), and a largely lukewarm online response from fans.
How happy should Drake be with his first-week performance? And will criticism of his music ever actually impact his commercial success? Billboard staffers debate these questions and more below.
1. For All the Dogs debuts with 402,000 first-week units — nearly 200,000 more than 2022’s Honestly Nevermind, over 200,000 fewer than 2021’s Certified Lover Boy, and almost exactly on par with last November’s Her Loss. On a scale from 1-10 — 1 being most disappointed, 10 being most elated — how happy are you with that first-week performance if you’re Drake?
Rania Aniftos: I’m going to say 5? Maybe? I really have no idea, because given how often he releases music, he clearly doesn’t care much about performance numbers anymore — he consistently tops the Billboard 200 no matter what.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. As he continues to rack up No. 1 singles and albums — stacking his wins to stand alongside the all-time greats — Drake has transcended the need to be concerned that an equivalent album units debut is a little higher or lower than his previous effort. The first-week number for Dogs is a drop-off from that of Certified Lover Boy, but CLB was also his first official album in over three years, and arrived with greater hype — and in any event, the Dogs debut still cleared 400k to rank among the biggest bows of 2023. Drake’s focus should be on chasing chart history instead of first-week performances, but even so, that’s a darn good first-week performance.
Meghan Mahar: A solid 8.5. I would imagine that Drake and his team hope to break records with every album drop, but the fact that he is able to maintain this level of success is unprecedented in rap. Fluctuating performance over the past few years shouldn’t distract us from the fact that this drop was a monumental feat of its own. For All the Dogs outperforming Honestly, Nevermind proves that there is not only still demand for Drake, but a firm belief in him as both an artist and a pop star.
Damien Scott: I’d say I’m at a 7 or an 8. Drake is one of the few artists left who can make pop culture events out of their album releases. Despite how you feel about the qualitative nature of his albums, it’s exciting to know that when he drops a new project, nearly everyone is listening to it at the same time. The pessimistic view is that the monoculture is dead and the splintering of pop culture means we won’t have superstars with big week numbers like this in the future. I’d like to think that’s not the case, but just in case that turns out to be true, I think we should celebrate albums that bring us all together in that way.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 6. It’s a No. 1 and a decisive one, but for a star-studded 23-track set with him as the lone lead to pull up short of last year’s 16-track 21 Savage collab set — more a course-correction following the tepid response to Honestly, Nevermind than a full-on Drake album — I just can’t imagine he’s all the way thrilled about it. Still, who else in hip-hop right now could do 400,000-plus first-week units without even putting out a physical release? Is there anyone?
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2. Drake’s J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter” was the best-performing song from the album in its first week, debuting atop the Hot 100 — Drake’s 13th No. 1, tying him with Michael Jackson for the most among male solo artists, and the first of J. Cole’s whole career. Which of the two artists do you think the milestone No. 1 ultimately means more to?
Rania Aniftos: While I want to say J. Cole because it’s about time he topped the Hot 100, I’m going with Drake. It’s yet further validation that the 6 God can do no wrong when it comes to music releases.
Jason Lipshutz: I can’t imagine how gratifying it must be for J. Cole to at long last have his name atop the Hot 100, after more than a decade of occupying a singular lane in popular rap music and getting close to the summit a couple of times. Cole is a superstar regardless of specific chart achievements — and maybe some will place an asterisk next to this one, considering that it’s a guest spot on a Drake song — but he has deserved a No. 1 single for a while, and I’m glad that he finally scored one here.
Meghan Mahar: I firmly believe that this No. 1 means more to J. Cole than Drake. J. Cole has been in the game for almost as long as Drake — he was opening for Jay-Z and Wale back in 2009 and already had 11 Hot 100 top 10’s of his own — so a No. 1 this late into his career is a rare and well-deserved testament to his work ethic. Drake is undoubtedly excited (and vocal on social media) about this achievement but I think he’s been plotting on this achievement for a long time. The truly groundbreaking moment from Drake’s POV is likely breaking Michael Jackson’s record.
Damien Scott: “First Person Shooter” hitting No. 1 likely means more to J. Cole than Drake simply because it’s somehow his first. I say “likely” because, as big as the achievement is, you get the idea that Cole has resigned himself from chasing chart spots. Looking at Drake’s past performance, it was only a matter of time before he tied MJ’s record — and it’s only a matter of time before he surpasses it. So, as good as this song is, if it wasn’t this one, it was going to be another. But for Cole, this song caps off an insane run of incredible guest performances: a run that has made many rethink his ranking within the “Big Three” of rap. In that way, this #1 feels like a coronation of sorts. At the very least, it ups the stakes for his upcoming album, The Fall Off.
Andrew Unterberger: It probably should mean more to J. Cole — finally reaching the top spot after a decade of creeping closer and closer — but it almost certainly means more to Drake, who is as cognizant of his chart achievements as any major pop star in recent memory. (He’s even still smarting about “Sicko Mode” not counting towards his tally!)
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3. While “Shooter” had the strongest debut, it’s already been passed on most streaming services’ daily charts by the Yeat-featuring “IDGAF.” Which do you think will ultimately end up the biggest hit off Dogs — or do you think another cut on the tracklist will ultimately surpass both?
Rania Aniftos: I’m putting my money on “First Person Shooter.” While both songs have a great beat and I can see them being favorites in Drake’s discography in the future, “Shooter” has those classic, viral-worthy lyrics that Drake is so good at. You already know we’re going to see lots of “Who the G.O.A.T.? Who you b–ches really rootin’ for?” Instagram captions over the next few months.
Jason Lipshutz: “IDGAF” is the one: not only has the Yeat collaboration taken off on streaming platforms in a way that indicates a long run in the Hot 100’s upper tier, but the track has effectively burrowed into my skull, that sample of Azimuth’s “The Tunnel” charging into the bleary synths and Yeat’s warbled boasts playing on repeat. As a gaudy, zonked-out showcase for both artists, “IDGAF” is as subtle as a sledgehammer but is undeniable as a headbanger. I will gladly have this song playing too loudly on my morning commute all fall long.
Meghan Mahar: I have a strong feeling that “IDGAF” is going to be the most streamed hit off Dogs, but that “Shooter” will ultimately have the best overall performance and lasting cultural impact. “Shooter” is a special moment for rap fans. Cole says it best: “This s–t like the Super Bowl.” However, Yeat’s fans are extremely passionate about supporting online, especially via streams. “IDGAF” debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Global 200 songs chart, so I think that there’s a clear chance it could rank higher than “Shooter” on next week’s Hot 100.
Damien Scott: After my first run through, I thought “Rich Baby Daddy” was the clear standout single and would be the one to run the score up. It has everything, on paper at least: a rookie of the year candidate, an artist coming off the best year of their career, and a fun faux-Miami bass beat. Maybe if it dropped at the top of summer, it would have fared better, but I think a good video could give it a boost.
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, the fact that it could be either of these songs and not “Rich Baby Daddy” — the lone song Drake has been involved with in the past two years that absolutely screams HIT SINGLE — shows you just how scrambled the hitmaking system has gotten in the TikTok era, both for better and worse.
4. While Drake’s reception from rap critics and gatekeepers (and even a large percentage of casual fans) seems to be getting worse and worse every year, he’s still yet to see any kind of sustained commercial downturn as a result. What do you think it would take for Drake to actually tumble from his chart perch — or is he essentially there until he doesn’t want to be?
Rania Aniftos: I’m just repeating myself at this point but the numbers don’t lie. With 13 Billboard 200 No. 1s and 13 Hot 100 No. 1s, it really seems like it’s going to take a super weird musical decision on Drake’s part to knock him off his rap throne. He’s not fixing what’s not broken and that keeps working out for him. He still sells out tours, gets impressive numbers and waves to the haters from center stage at the most famous arenas in the world.
Jason Lipshutz: Drake has hinted at taking some time away from the studio after a highly prolific two-year stretch, and if that hiatus lasts multiple years, I do think his commercial standing will be impacted by the time he returns. That speaks less to Drake falling out of touch with popular rap music, and more to the life cycle of any imperial run like the one he is currently on; these streaks of scoring huge singles and albums are simply difficult for any artist to sustain, let alone carry one for over 15 years. All stars begin to dim at some point, and we’ll see if Drake pressing pause will trigger any sort of fade of his blockbuster appeal.
Meghan Mahar: As we can see from him tying Michael Jackson’s record, Drake is more than a rapper: he’s a pop star. He is a cultural barometer of what’s cool in music, fashion, and more. His commercial performance isn’t going to be impacted by critics — and truthfully, I think the back-and-forth that Drake has with critics benefits him in the long run. I think that a true “tumble” would have to be caused by a public sentiment change toward Drake — he would have to be perceived as unlikeable and uncool for people to stop supporting him and I don’t foresee that happening anytime soon.
Damien Scott: No one stays on top forever. That said, if I’m honest, I have no idea what it would take at this point for Drake to not dominate the charts.
Andrew Unterberger: The rap world probably will have to change before Drake does. Hip-hop has been in such commercial stasis so far this decade — there’s plenty of exciting things happening, just not so much that you really see impacting the top of the charts — that Drake has been able to mostly coast along with just minor tweaks (not counting the admirable but not entirely successful left turn of Honestly, Nevermind) to his production and personality. It’s gonna take a massive sea change in the mainstream, one that quickly makes Drake seem like a relic, for his commercial fortunes to be majorly affected.
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5. Let’s say that before his next project, Drake came to you for advice on how to get fans and critics back on his side, without risking an Honestly, Nevermind-like dip in commercial performance. What would you tell him to do?
Rania Aniftos: Is it weird to say that I wouldn’t tell him anything? Who am I to advise a consistent Billboard 200 and Hot 100 chart topper? Despite the Nevermind dip, he clearly did something right with For All the Dogs.
Jason Lipshutz: The reason why Her Loss is one of my favorite Drake projects? He’s rapping his ass off on it — largely to keep pace with 21 Savage, but still, Drake sounds excellent across that album, and I’d love to hear him replicate that approach on a solo effort. Don’t get me wrong, I’d welcome another joint LP with 21 Savage, but I’d tell Drake to listen to Her Loss, absorb how effective his flow sounds, and then chase that flow once again.
Meghan Mahar: For me, there are two main takeaways from the performance of Honestly, Nevermind: first, Drake’s fans will punish him if he deviates too far from the “old Drake” that leans more into his signature melodic rap and hype songs; second, Drake’s albums are most successful when they have more features. Drake’s reign will only end if he consistently disregards these learnings, and it seems like he took both into account when curating Dogs. I would tell him that his fans aren’t ready for him to try to reinvent the wheel, so a new creative direction should still have roots in what’s familiar.
Damien Scott: It’s tough for me to tell someone who sells over 400,000 first week to change anything. But, to answer the question, I’d refer Drake to “Sandra’s Rose,” track 10 on Scorpion. Over Preemo’s expert soul chopping, Drake starts verse two with “N—as want a classic, that’s just 10 of these.” I understand Drake must make music for everyone — he’s a megastar, after all, with fans of all ages, backgrounds, and tastes — but it’s clear he knows what people want. What if Drake co-opted the original plan for Jay-Z’s The Black Album: 12 songs, 12 producers? Drake could work with anyone he wants. It’d be fun to see what happens if he were to focus on just a dozen tracks with the best producers working today.
Andrew Unterberger: How about this: Release an album with singles people actually like. I don’t even necessarily mean a trio of obvious chart-slayers like Scorpion‘s “God’s Plan,” “Nice for What” and “In My Feelings.” Think Nothing Was the Same‘s “Started From the Bottom,” “Hold on, We’re Going Home” and “Worst Behavior” — three totally different singles, working on totally different commercial levels, and largely beloved by fans for totally different reasons. What was the last Drake single that felt (or had an impact) like any of those? Certainly not “Slime You Out” or “Search and Rescue.”
This week, pop fans get to see a once-familiar group of faces on the Billboard Hot 100 for the first time in over 20 years: *NSYNC, the chart-topping superstar boy band who were once in the discussion for the biggest act in popular music, have returned with their new single “Better Place.”
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The new single, found on the soundtrack to the upcoming boy band-themed animated sequel Trolls Band Together, bows at No. 25 on the chart this week, with excellent sales and early radio numbers. It’s the group’s first Hot 100 appearance since the Nelly-featuring “Girlfriend” reached No. 5 in 2002.
How should the group be feeling about the song’s entrance? And where will the group likely go from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. *NSYNC’s first single in over 20 years, “Better Place,” debuts at No. 25 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that higher, lower or about what you expected for its first week?
Katie Atkinson: Judging by the fervor over the reunion at last month’s MTV VMAs, it’s lower than I expected. I think it could have reasonably had a top 10 or at least top 20 debut had they released it the same week as the VMAs. Instead of the momentum building in the weeks after, it seemed to fizzle a bit, with high-hoped fans realizing that a Trolls song might be the only thing they’re getting from the reunited boy band – no new music outside the movie, and seemingly no tour or concert.
I kept telling my hopeful friends that if the song had a high debut, Justin Timberlake (who seems to be the holdout, since he was the one missing from Ariana Grande’s Coachella performance in 2019) would have to at least consider something beyond the Trolls music. But I don’t know that a No. 25 debut is going to motivate him to do anything further with his bandmates.
Kyle Denis: This is around what I expected, maybe a bit higher than what I was initially predicting. I think a No. 25 debut perfectly encapsulates the tension between the hype for the return of one of the biggest musical acts in pop history and the radically different commercial landscape they’re returning to.
Jason Lipshutz: About what I expected, in context with how the Trolls singles that preceded “Better Place” over the course of the franchise performed: Justin Timberlake’s “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” made it to No. 1 on the Hot 100, Timberlake and SZA’s “The Other Side” reached No. 61, and “Better Place” more or less splits the difference. *NSYNC is still a brand name, and their first single in over 20 years was always going to generate interest — so a top 40 debut seemed likely, even as they’ve got a lot of catching up to do in terms of modern streaming fans.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s actually a lot better than I expected based on the early crickets around the song online, and the fact that *NSYNC has been gone so long that a new Justin Timberlake solo song — even one alongside, say, two of his old collaborators — can’t really move the needle anymore. “Better Place” owes its impressive debut to a combination of massive radio support, sales from fans who haven’t completely moved on from the iTunes era and a relatively slow week on the chart, without a big new album release to clutter the top tiers.
Christine Werthman: No. 25 is lower than I expected, considering the hoopla around the group’s VMA appearance, but it’s pretty on point for Timberlake’s Trolls tunes. While “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” debuted at No. 1 in 2016, “The Other Side” with SZA started at No. 61 in 2020 and never went any higher. So, I suppose it makes sense that this one dropped roughly in the middle. I just thought that getting the gang back together would snag it a slightly higher debut.
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2. “Better Place” is off to an excellent start at radio and in sales, but its streams have been fairly minimal. Does it seem like a lasting pop hit to you, or is No. 25 likely as good as it will get for the Trolls sequel single?
Katie Atkinson: I think it could definitely climb higher if the group releases a proper music video – meaning, the actual *NSYNC performing choreography, not animated clips of the Trolls boy band. Of course, with the ongoing actors’ strike, that’s a big ask. Timberlake isn’t going to want to look like he’s not supporting his fellow actors, even though he is likely clear to promote the film in his capacity as a featured musician and not as the voice star. But if actors are able to follow in the footsteps of the Hollywood writers’ strike, which wrapped more than a week ago, there’s a world where we could get a classic *NSYNC music video (can MTV revive TRL for a day?) and the song gets new life.
Kyle Denis: As it happens with soundtrack singles – a lot of this song’s future success depends on how big/well-received the Trolls sequel is, how much money and effort are put into its promotion, and how the song is incorporated into the movie. There’s certainly potential for this to stick around the No. 20-40 range – and potentially sneak a weak or two in the lower reaches of the top 10 – thanks to radio’s support. To grow into a legitimate, lasting smash, however, “Better Place” will have to pick up on streaming, but that’ll be hard to do with a musical act that’s been absent for the entirety of the streaming era.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s hard to say since, while I don’t think “Better Place” will become a huge streaming hit, I could envision radio programmers gravitating towards a new *NSYNC single, considering how many of them undoubtedly remember the group’s turn-of-the-century enormity and would love to incorporate their new song’s sunny pop sound into power blocks. “Better Place” may not rise above No. 25 on the Hot 100, yet the song will likely enjoy a comfortable run on FM dials — especially around the release of the new Trolls movie, when parents and kids are going to be happy to hear how it ties into the story of the film.
Andrew Unterberger: I’m… not optimistic about it sticking around. That said, it was just last year that another whistle-heavy song by an ’00s pop group rode a sequel soundtrack placement to extended chart success, so maybe *NSYNC will be able to follow the formula there. (It would help if Trolls Band Together was at least 1/20th as successful as Top Gun: Maverick, of course.)
Christine Werthman: The movie comes out in November, so by the time we get to the Thanksgiving car rides with the kiddos, it might be in more frequent streaming rotation. It’s also got that breezy, dentist’s-office-appropriate energy that will give it staying power, so I think it’s got a little more gas in the tank and won’t stall at 25. Maybe 20?
3. What would you be looking for regarding the song’s performance if you were on *NSYNC’s team? What, if anything, do you think they stand to gain with a good reception to the new single?
Katie Atkinson: I would be looking at the window from now through the film’s release on Nov. 17 to see if it grows from here, whether that’s through a music video, radio airplay or some sort of belated social virality. If this song peaks at No. 25, I think fans holding out hope for anything else from *NSYNC will be gravely disappointed. But if it has legs, who knows what could happen? I refuse to believe that we’re just going to get a cartoon song and a Hot Ones episode out of this whole thing.
Kyle Denis: If I were on *NSYNC’s team, I’d be paying attention to the song’s longevity above all else. We all know that the first new song from *NSYCNC in over two decades would get an incredibly warm reception across consumption channels upon debut. Now, if “Better Place” can harness that early love and turn it into weeks of stability and substantial growth, that, to me, would be a signal that there’s a place in the contemporary marketplace for *NSYNC outside of nostalgia bait.
Jason Lipshutz: This is a little bit of wishcasting, but if “Better Place” hypothetically turns into an all-out smash, that might somewhat compel *NSYNC to hitting the road together, right? Thus far, there has been no indication that their new single precedes the quintet’s first tour in over two decades, but if anything is going to potentially tip the scales a bit, it would be “Better Place” growing bigger than expected, and bridging the gap to a new generation of *NSYNC fans. Maybe a tour isn’t in the cards regardless of the song’s performance, but here’s hoping, right?
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, I wouldn’t even be trying to get on radio or even on TikTok in 2023 if I was *NSYNC’s team — I’d just be hitting those pleasure centers for the longtime fans, the ones actually likely to buy tickets for an upcoming tour if and when one happens. There’s no particularly likely path back to contemporary stardom for *NSYNC in an era when, again, even JT solo can’t seem to find his way back in. They’d be much better off not even trying, especially since the Backstreet Boys have proven that ’90s boy bands can still have a very lucrative second life as a legacy act.
Christine Werthman: I’d be crossing my fingers for some TikTok pickup, hoping that Gen Z cared as much as Millennials about this boy band reunion. *NSYNC isn’t going to skyrocket back to No Strings Attached levels of popularity, but if there’s some interest here, it could prompt some more new music, maybe a couple reunion shows.
4. With *NSYNC now (at least temporarily) reunited, who’s another pop group that’s been dormant for at least a decade who you’d like to see give it another go?
Katie Atkinson: Destiny’s Child – whether it’s the trio lineup of Beyoncé, Kelly Rowland and Michelle Williams, or even adding LaTavia Roberson and LeToya Luckett into the mix, since all four of those women attended Queen B’s hometown Renaissance Tour stop in Houston last month. After all, fans already think DC could be involved in “act ii” of Bey’s Renaissance album series. Honestly, a Destiny’s Child reunion seems way more realistic than anything beyond “Better Place” for *NSYNC at this point.
Kyle Denis: Salt-N-Pepa.
Jason Lipshutz: All five Spice Girls haven’t performed together since 2012 — and that was only a few songs for the London Olympics, not a full-fledged tour. Not only do I think a Spice Girls reunion trek would be entertaining as hell, but I’d love to hear their blended perspectives on a new single, EP or album; they accomplished so much in the ’90s, have grown into different people in the years since, and I’d bet whatever they cooked up in the studio would be, at the very least, thematically interesting.
Andrew Unterberger: Anyone else out there who would have major interest in a Junior Senior hyperpop album? Just me perhaps?
Christine Werthman: Savage Garden. Darren Hayes still releases solo music, his latest album, Homosexual, dropping in 2022, but Daniel Jones called it quits and meant it. He hated touring, works in real estate and, like Hayes, says they will never reunite. I honestly salute their commitment to the breakup, but that would be a fun one.
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5. OK, it’s been seven years since Timberlake’s “Can’t Stop the Feeling!,” from the original Trolls, topped the Hot 100 — how do you feel about the song in 2023?
Katie Atkinson: I have much fonder feelings toward that song now than I did when it was first released. At the time, I wrestled with how uncool it was – but it’s a carefree, fun song from a kids’ movie. Of course it’s uncool! After dancing to it on countless wedding dance floors in the seven years since, I’ve come to peace with the fact that it’s a harmless, happy song whose charms are hard to resist.
Kyle Denis: It’s not a song that I would defend with my life, but I’ve never really understood the distaste for this one. It’s fun and full of my favorite pop song clichés, so I can’t be too mad at it. Doesn’t add much to JT’s discography, but that wasn’t the goal, so I’ll continue to enjoy it for what it is.
Jason Lipshutz: Pretty much the same as I felt about it seven years ago: not my favorite JT song, but it’s undeniably catchy, and I really love the sing-along outro. Really, we should be using this space to cry Justice For “The Other Side,” the Trolls World Tour single that demonstrated some nu-disco chemistry between Timberlake and SZA. Should have been bigger!
Andrew Unterberger: Never really need to hear it outside a wedding context, but would be lying if I said I did not get that feeling in my body when it comes on.
Christine Werthman: It didn’t make my personal top songs list in 2016 (lots of Beyoncé, Solange, Rihanna, Drake and Frank Ocean though — what a year!), but it’s a cute track. Was then, is now. I’m sure at the time I was outraged that No. 1 wasn’t something from The Life of Pablo, but you can’t sleep on those family-friendly hits.
While Doja Cat‘s blockbuster 2021 LP Planet Her never topped the Billboard 200 albums chart, there were understandable reasons why — it was blocked at No. 1 in its first week by another A-lister’s acclaimed new set in Tyler, the Creator’s Call Me If You Get Lost, and its massive success from there was more of an extended slow burn than a one-week supernova. Now, however, her new set Scarlet has also debuted short of the top spot, and the reasons why are less immediately obvious.
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Despite coming off the momentum of Planet Her‘s year-long top 40 dominance, and despite boasting a Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hit of its own — something her last set never even managed — in lead single “Paint the Town Red,” Scarlet debuts at No. 4, with an underwhelming 72,000 first-week units. And it’s not blocked by a spate of big-name new releases, either: The three albums above it are all prior No. 1s on the chart, and none that post units in the six digits this week.
Why does Doja Cat’s album success not seem to match her success in other key pop areas? And will the album still be able to grow from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. After Planet Her debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 with 109,000 first-week units, Scarlet bows at No. 4 with 72,000. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you by the album’s first-week performance?
Stephen Daw: I’m at a 7. While I understand why some fans might have been turned off to new music from an artist who was openly dissing them, I’m still a little shocked that Scarlet didn’t chart better. The hype leading into the album was amply stoked, with a series of well-selected singles and a blockbuster performance at the VMAs — while a No. 4 debut is certainly not bad, it’s much lower than I’d anticipated.
Kyle Denis: Probably around a 4. This is pretty much what I expected given the shaky rollout and her contentious relationship with her fans. Planet Her had two pre-release songs that legitimately connected with audiences – and one of them ended up being one of the biggest all-female collaborations in Billboard chart history. Comparatively, only “Paint the Town Red” landed with audiences of the advance Scarlet cuts, and that came after weeks of controversy regarding how Doja spoke about her fans and her previous two albums. The numbers for this album were never going to truly hold a candle to Planet Her’s — at least in terms of their respective first weeks.
Rylee Johnston: I’d rate my surprise level at a 7 – while Doja Cat continues to dominate the rap music sphere, I think her controversial statements (especially about her own fans) works against her. She’s undeniably talented and uses social media to her advantage when it comes to marketing her singles and upcoming projects, but that’s also where things come back to bite her. This time headlines about her as a person seemed to dominate the news, which ultimately could have overshadowed the release of her new album.
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Doja Cat is clearly an A-list artist, she’s collected plenty of new hits and listeners since her last album, and Scarlet was preceded by a legitimate smash in “Paint the Town Red”; the fact that this album debuted lower than Planet Her, and with a smaller equivalent album units total, is a bit mystifying. Yet I don’t think this debut is disappointing, exactly, considering just how well “Paint the Town Red” is performing — misfires simply do not include hits as big as this one. So while a No. 4 bow is somewhat startling, I’d still be pretty thrilled with this era so far if I were Doja.
Andrew Unterberger: Like a 7.5 maybe? I definitely thought it was possible it would fall a little short of No. 1, but a first-week number in the low 70s — not even high enough to beat out Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time in what feels like its 327th week on the 200 — is pretty stark. I get some of the reasons why it might be the case, but none of them feel totally satisfying to me yet.
2. While Scarlet comes short of the top spot on the Billboard 200, “Paint the Town Red” returns for a second week at No. 1 on the Hot 100. Why do you think Doja has found more success with the lead single of this era of hers than with its parent album?
Stephen Daw: Simply, you can’t keep a good song down! “Paint the Town Red” is a perfect bridge between the pop-leaning sensibilities of Planet Her and the darker, hip-hop focused stylings of Scarlet, allowing Doja to flex her skills as a singer, a rapper and a provocateur. For all the big swings she takes on her album, “Paint the Town Red” is a surefire win-win for old and new fans alike.
Kyle Denis: With an evolved fashion sense that featured a shaved head accompanied by horrorcore and punk aesthetics, the Doja of Scarlet is very far removed from the way she presented herself during the Planet Her era. Given that Doja went out of her way to lambast her previous two records – the most successful ones in her catalog – as “cash grabs,” it makes sense that audiences would gravitate to the Scarlet song that most closely recalls the Doja they fell in love with in 2020. “Paint the Town Red” isn’t a carbon copy of any of the songs on Amala or Hot Pink, but it’s certainly closer to that sound than Scarlet cuts like “Demons” or “WYM Freestyle.”
Rylee Johnston: She knows how to market her work on social media, and you can see the positive effects, especially with “Paint the Town Red.” Her skill and proficiency on TikTok ultimately helped skyrocket the single to a top performing position — but it’s a lot harder to do the same with an entire album.
Jason Lipshutz: Within the compelling hip-hop potpourri of Scarlet, “Paint the Town Red” stands out as the most immediate pop-crossover entry point. I don’t believe that the rap slant of Scarlet is less accessible than the pop overtures of Planet Her (which still had a ton of rap DNA in there, to be honest), but it’s also not shocking that “Paint the Town Red” has stood out from the pack, and made define the entire Scarlet era. Doja Cat has turned into one of top 40’s most consistent hit-makers, and as she continues patiently establishing her reputation as an albums artist, she’s still scoring smashes in the meantime.
Andrew Unterberger: I think we’re seeing more and more that hit singles in the TikTok era do not necessarily correlate to hit albums — it helps, sure, but the things that make one song go viral and the things that inspire a fanbase to stream an album millions and millions of times over don’t really seem to be the same. (For the record, this used to be a much more common phenomenon — artists like Pitbull and Flo Rida who scored pop smashes regularly without ever seriously threatening the top of the 200 — but they feel rarer in a streaming-dominated landscape, where the biggest albums artists and the biggest pop stars are generally one and the same.)
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3. While the album has not really been streamed in bulk — only one song from it debuts on the Hot 100 this week — that one song, new focus track “Agora Hills,” is off to a pretty good start on the chart, debuting at No. 18. Do you think the song will have legs as another long-lasting hit of Doja’s?
Stephen Daw: I think so, but with a few caveats. “Agora Hills” is an immediate standout from Scarlet, and fans unanimously chose it as one of their favorites of the collection. But with the music video already out, and a bonafide streaming and radio hit already guaranteed in “Paint the Town Red,” I’m not quite sure if “Agora” will ascend that much further into the chart’s upper echelons. But I think it’s definitely in for a good, long stay in the 10’s and 20’s.
Kyle Denis: I hope so! “Agora Hills” is easily one of the strongest songs on Scarlet, and it’s definitely well on its way to replicating – or even expanding on – the success of “Need to Know,” a similarly sultry R&B-rap hybrid from Planet Her. The song has tons of meme potential, is ridiculously catchy, and has genuine multi-format appeal. Whether or not it can reach higher than No. 18 depends on timing more than anything else.
Rylee Johnston: It has the potential to, but she would need to continue keeping everyone talking about her album. Especially with more artists releasing new music, the less people are listening to her album and talking about the focus track, then the easier it is for the song to continue descending on the chart. Her album is still fresh on people’s minds and she needs to use that to her advantage.
Jason Lipshutz: Any track from Scarlet that has longevity as a single will have to wait a few weeks (or more likely, months) for “Paint the Town Red” to slow down a bit, but Doja Cat has demonstrated an ability to effortlessly spin multiple hits off of a project dating back to her Hot Pink days. The vibe of “Agora Hills” is radically different than that of “Paint the Town Red” — one is a sensual rumination on private romance, the other is a galactic chest-thump — and I think that will work in its favor as radio programmers move on from her current smash, onto something a bit softer from a proven brand. I foresee a slow-growing top 10 hit here.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if it’ll threaten the top spot, but it certainly feels on pace to mirror some of the long-tail hits from the Planet Her era. It might not be the radio catnip that “Woman” or “Need to Know” proved to be, but it’s such a vibe that it seems likely to be regular fodder for playlists and TikTok videos for months to come still. And just generally speaking, when a Doja Cat song debuts well, that means it’s going to be around for a long time.
4. Planet Her had a very good first week, but was far more impressive in terms of its endurance, continuing to spawn new hit singles nearly a year into its release. Do you think Scarlet will ultimately follow a similar trajectory?
Stephen Daw: I don’t think so, and I think that’s perfectly fine. The ethos behind Scarlet, from what I can tell, was for Doja to re-establish herself as a hip-hop superstar while also dabbling in some darker, horror-fueled imagery. She did that with ease, and the album stands out as a singular artistic statement in her discography. Barring some high-profile features on A-list remixes, I don’t see Scarlet becoming the enduring smash that Planet Her was — but it doesn’t really need to be that, either.
Kyle Denis: I think Scarlet has the potential to follow a similar trajectory. There’s definitely a scenario where songs like “Gun,” “Agora Hills,” “Go Off,” and “Can’t Wait” build Scarlet into a years-long behemoth. Nonetheless, because the album campaign has been so rocky — and there aren’t any songs as immediately accessible as those that have already been named radio singles or focus tracks — I think it’s more likely that the Scarlet era ends up being a bit briefer than the Planet Her era.
Rylee Johnston: It very well could especially if Doja Cat uses the horror element to her advantage. Listeners seem to have positive reactions to her new album and if she enters October, which is also spooky season, with the same amount of drive that she had while promoting her singles, then it could definitely hit more singles. Whether it’s bringing back the demon memes she made while promoting that single, she should really lean into the scary, horror vibes while everyone’s thinking about it.
Jason Lipshutz: Yeah, I think that this might just be Doja Cat’s singular lane, as a cerebral pop star whose songs take a few minutes for the rest of the world to catch up to them. A good example is “Vegas” from the Elvis soundtrack last year, which started slow but gained momentum before eventually reaching the top 10 and radio ubiquity; a similar fate may await Scarlet, which strikes a lot of bold poses, chart performance be damned. “Paint the Town Red” is already enormous, and I think there will be two or three more hits from the project (let’s hope “F–k the Girls (FTG)” is one of them!)
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it, but it absolutely could happen. Each of Doja’s last two albums spawned multiple smashes well after their initial release — due to a combination of her being a promotional savant and her having a surfeit of great songs whose charms take a while to fully reveal themselves. If eight months from now we looked foolish for this discussion prematurely framing Scarlet as a commercial disappointment, I couldn’t say I’d be shocked.
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5. Doja Cat has been one of the decade’s biggest and best-performing commercial artists — our staff named her one of the top 10 pop stars of each of the last two calendar years, and she’ll have a pretty good case for a third straight spot this year. But unlike most of the other artists at her level, she has yet to score a No. 1 album, and she seems to be moving in the wrong direction. How much do you think that matters in gauging her pop star resumé?
Stephen Daw: Not much at all. You can’t seriously look at artists like Dua Lipa, Lizzo and Megan Thee Stallion and say that they haven’t achieved superstar status because their albums haven’t hit No. 1, so you shouldn’t do so with Doja either.
Kyle Denis: I don’t think it matters much that Doja has yet to score a No. 1 album. Rihanna didn’t reach the summit of the Billboard 200 until her seventh try, and by that point, no one was genuinely doubting her place at the top of the pop ecosystem. I think what’s most important for Doja’s — and what she’s already proving – is consistency. Doja’s true mainstream breakthrough arrived in 2020 during the pandemic, and a number of artists who also broke through during that time have struggled to maintain that momentum. With a third consecutive top 10 album, her first unaccompanied No. 1 single (also her first to spend multiple weeks at the top), and a headlining arena tour kicking off at the end of the month – Doja is in a really good place right now. By the year’s end she’ll have filled in a couple blanks on her pop star resumé that are probably more important than a No. 1 album right now.
I don’t doubt her ability to reach No. 1 – it’s likely that Planet Her would’ve gotten there in a slightly less crowded week – but the lack of a chart-topping album isn’t make or break for her right now. For an artist as chameleonic as she is, it’s far more important and impressive that she continues to carry swaths of fans through each iteration of her artistry – no matter how different each one may be from the last.
Rylee Johnston: Doja Cat continues to be talked about — and since she has such a strong presence on social media, I don’t think it matters. Most artists have had at least one album that’s not as successful as the rest and I don’t think it discounts the success she has received, so far. What could come to hurt her in the future, is the rift between her and her fans. If that continues, then the downward descend will most likely continue.
Jason Lipshutz: My take is that this specific achievement doesn’t hinder Doja Cat as a modern pop star, but that if and when she does score a No. 1 album, it will represent a new level of her stardom. Although Doja has plenty of hit singles and a one-of-a-kind persona — a combination that is driving arena ticket sales as we speak — once she becomes the type of artist that put out an album and automatically earn blockbuster numbers, she’ll be even more unstoppable as a cultural force. It’s been a whirlwind few years for Doja, and there’s nothing lacking in her arsenal right now — but often, checking every single box of superstardom takes time, and this specific one might have to wait a few more years.
Andrew Unterberger: Depends what you’re trying to gauge, I guess. If you’re comparing her to the Taylor Swift/Drake/Adele commercial level of star — maybe you could throw Bad Bunny, Morgan Wallen and SZA in there too at this point — then yeah, it for sure matters that Doja can’t do first-week numbers the way they do. But if you’re just talking about pop stars whose songs and personas best capture and define and era, it’s pretty hard to leave her out of that discussion. It’d be tough to name three artists of any kind who feel more like the 2020s so far than Doja Cat.
