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In an era when most albums peak in interest during their debut week and slowly slide away from there, Charli XCX‘s Brat is already two months old and still seems to become more central to the pop conversation every week.
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As two of the album’s established hits continue to climb the Billboard Hot 100 this week, with “360” climbing 44-41 and “Apple” rising 66-52, the two songs are leapfrogged by the No. 12 debut of “Guess,” boosted by the Brat bonus cut’s new remix featuring pop superstar Billie Eilish. The flirty collab between the two pop hitmakers (with an eye-catching, undergarment-strewn video) instantly becomes Charli XCX’s highest-peaking single since 2014, while Eilish collects her sixth new top 20 hit this year.
What does the song’s success mean for the rest of the pop season increasingly referred to as Brat summer? And how important are the song’s sapphic overtones (particularly in Eilish’s new verse) to the continued normalization of LGBTQ content in top 40? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Charli XCX’s Billie Eilish-featuring remix of Brat deluxe reissue cut “Guess” debuts at No. 12 on the Hot 100 this week — making it easily the highest-peaking hit from the entire Brat era. Is its success just a matter of the combined star power of the names involved, or do you think there’s more to the song’s success?
Katie Bain: Certainly it’s a function of the star power, plus a general curiosity of what Billie would bring to the song, then also an acknowledgment of how well she delivers on the track. It seems likely as well that timing is a factor, given that the remix came out 10 days after Charli’s culture-sharking “Kamala IS brat’ tweet whipped up a frenzy and pushed the album further into the cultural conversation, particularly areas where it didn’t previously exist, drawing more attention to anything/everything about the project. The song’s female-centric themes also dovetail neatly with the woman-power vibe of the Kamala Harris campaign (albeit in a much more explicit way), so the remix coming in the wake of the tweet made for synergy, and likely made a difference in the track’s performance.
Stephen Daw: I’d argue it’s more the latter. There’s no denying that nabbing a mega-star like Billie Eilish for the “Guess” remix was a huge get for Charli, but the reason this remix works is because it feels like a missing piece of the song has been added. Instead of simply repeating the same verse, Billie gets her own take on the track with some truly out of pocket lyrics that add to the performative idea behind the single. Sure, having these two stars together on one track certainly contributed to the song’s success, but I doubt it would have charted this high were it not for Billie’s cheeky performance.
Jason Lipshutz: The star power helps — after all, Billie Eilish is one of the biggest active pop superstars on the planet, with another smash currently in the top 10 of the Hot 100 — but the “Guess” remix has largely benefited from the general buy-in to the Brat era and the narrative that Charli XCX has harnessed with the project. Brat has become the definition of cool in pop over the past few months, and because of that, its deluxe-edition songs, remixes and music videos have all enjoyed the snowball effect of Brat Summer, with each new release receiving greater and greater attention from a larger number of listeners. For her part, Charli has played this rollout perfectly — including saving her biggest remix collaborator for the moment in which Brat consumption reached a fever pitch.
Taylor Mims: Combined star power is definitely a factor in the song’s success. Both Charli and Billie are having huge summers with two great albums, but throwing two big stars on a track doesn’t necessarily make a hit. Billie has been a superstar for years now, but Hit Me Hard and Soft shows off her different, lighter side with tracks like “Lunch,” “Birds of a Feather” and “L’Amour De Ma Vie.” A track like “Guess,” which ends with the line “You wanna guess if I’m serious about this song,” is so unserious in the best way possible — and makes it a perfect companion for Billie’s current repertoire, which makes it easy for her fans to get on board.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a combination of a star power 1-2 and just good planning in general: Everything about the rollout, timing and general conceptualization behind the “Guess” remix hit just right. Personally I think there’s plenty of other Bratverse songs that deserve to be as big (and likely bigger), but the major debut of “Guess” is sort of the culmination of the entire era to this point anyway.
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2. As Brat summer just keeps getting hotter, the album continues to climb back up the Billboard 200, now ranking at No. 6 — three spots off its No. 3 debut a couple months ago. Do you think it will eventually best that original peak, or do you think the season of Brat is soon to wind to a close?
Katie Bain: It depends on what tricks Charli has up her sleeve to keep momentum going. She’s promised that a remix version of the album is coming, which would likely only draw more attention to the original, so depending on what her next chess moves are, I think there’s reason to believe it could continue climbing and segue us all into Brat Autumn.
Stephen Daw: Every summer has to end, and that includes Brat summer. I could see the album gaining another position or two with another big, blockbuster remix (maybe with Troye Sivan ahead of their co-headlining Sweat Tour?), but I think we’re marching towards the end of the cultural chokehold Charli has held us in for the last few months.
Jason Lipshutz: Part of the answer will depend upon how much the Brat hits continue growing on the Hot 100; if Charli can score an enduring top 10 hit from the album, then the album has a good shot at rising back to, or above, its No. 3 peak. At this point, though, that battle has already been made moot by a successful war: Brat is now Charli xcx’s longest-running album on the Billboard 200 chart, and a full-blown cultural phenomenon that keeps getting bigger. Want to know what’s cooler than having a No. 1 album? Having one that helps define pop music for an entire season in 2024.
Taylor Mims: Just because school has resumed, does not mean we are done with Brat summer. The Democratic party candidate has been dubbed “Brat” and, if we are to make it through an election year in the U.S., we’re gonna need the Brat season to carry over into the fall. The allbum seems like it will easily regain its peak position and possibly even reach the summit following this “Guess” remix. Clocking in at under two and a half minutes, this song will get repeat listens at a rapid pace, and propel Brat further and further up the chart.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t bet against Brat‘s momentum at this point — it feels like she’s taking the Noah Kahan-minted approach to this album of continuing to crank out star-studded remixes and deluxe editions as long as fans have the appetite for ’em, and right now they still seem hungry as ever. Personally, I hope it peaks at No. 2 — marking an undeniable triumph, but still allowing Charli to hold onto a bit of her underdog edge.
3. Meanwhile, Eilish’s own “Birds of a Feather” keeps gaining momentum on the Hot 100 — reaching a new peak of No. 7 this week. Why do you think that song has grown into the biggest breakout hit from her Hit Me Hard and Soft album?
Katie Bain: Melody. Whereas a lot of the album is more challenging/experimental in terms of structure, themes and Billie’s vocal delivery, “Birds of a Feather” is a bright, straightforward, singalong pop song made for radio.
Stephen Daw: “Birds of a Feather” feels like something genuinely new from an artist who has made a career from out-of-the-box creative decisions. The thing that makes “Birds” stand out in Billie’s catalog is that, sonically, it isn’t as eclectic as her other hits — it’s a simple, dark love song. It doesn’t lose that ephemeral quality that makes Billie Eilish songs so fascinating to listen to, but it also manages to recontextualize Billie in a more conventional sound that feels different from anything else she’s put out, let alone anything else on Hit Me Hard and Soft. Bonus points for the fact that her voice sounds nearly perfect on this track.
Jason Lipshutz: “Birds of a Feather” has maintained its high streaming totals while also establishing its foothold on pop radio, helping the song stay a hit in its first few weeks of release and then grow into an even bigger one recently. It also helps that “Birds” has the fans squarely in its corner: “Lunch” was the clear focus track upon the release of Hit Me Hard and Soft, but “Birds” quickly swooped in (pardon the pun) as the standout, and the early supporters are still listening to and championing the song three months later.
Taylor Mims: Obvious answer: because it’s a great song! Billie has historically had a much darker, moodier sound on her albums – plenty of which can still be found on HMAS – but “Birds of a Feather” is the opposite. The song is pure pop delight with her delicate vocals and the deeply sincere lyrics. The term “I want you to stay” could be dismissed as commonplace, but it’s actually an incredibly vulnerable thing to say to a new love and the lyrics only get better from there. It’s a phenomenally sweet love song that I think will only gain popularity the more it is played.
Andrew Unterberger: You know what pop fans still love, even in 2024? A good love song! You don’t hear as many on top 40 radio as you once did, of course — especially straightforward ones, written without much anger or resentment at their core — but when you hear a great singer testifying “I’ll love you ’til the day that I die” and sounding like they mean it, it’s still hugely powerful no matter who you are.
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4. The crossover success of “Guess,” in a summer that’s already seen songs of same-sex love and attraction from Chappell Roan and Eilish solo hit the top 10: very meaningful for LGBTQ presence and acceptance in pop music, somewhat meaningful, or not ultimately that meaningful?
Katie Bain: Representation is, as ever, important, especially when coming from two of the biggest pop stars on the planet who are at once celebrating and normalizing same sex love and attraction, and via Eilish, doing in a way that’s authentic/not performative. That feels meaningful.
Stephen Daw: Without question, this is a Big Deal™ for the community. It’s not entirely new — Lil Nas X topped the charts back in 2021 with “Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” a song that is very loudly about queer sex. But what’s important about the success of “Guess,” “Lunch,” “Good Luck, Babe!” and most of the other six songs Chappell currently has on the Hot 100 is consistency. Where past tracks about same-sex attraction could be written off as singular hits born out of a cult of personality, the continued success of all these songs about queer romance on the charts proves that audiences aren’t discriminatory when it comes to the object of a good love song — they care about specificity and whether or not it sounds good. That is a huge deal for every LGBTQ+ artist who has ever been told that they need to make their song more “universally appealing” (read: “less gay”), and a message to labels and distributors around the globe that these antiquated “rules” about what sells in pop music have been largely abandoned by modern audiences.
Jason Lipshutz: Very meaningful, just like all of these moments that help normalize same-sex feelings and relationships within popular music. Nothing about “Guess” is shocking in 2024, especially following recent hits by Chappell Roan and Eilish, but every song like it remains significant in rearranging the expectations of what a hit can express lyrically and musically. This year has been a landmark one for LGBTQ artists in the upper reaches of the charts, but more work needs to be done, and more songs like “Guess” means more positive developments.
Taylor Mims: This is a very meaningful moment for LGBTQ+ representation in pop music, but especially for queer women. For centuries, women who love women have been disappeared from culture because of homophobia, for their own safety or simply because people didn’t think they were real. On top of that, there was the issue of “who their audience would be.” Gay men have long been a target audience for “divas” and pop stars, but Chappell and Billie (along with Renee Rapp, Janelle Monáe, boygenius and MUNA) have proven that queer women are an eager and powerful fanbase. And I much as I would like to believe that every person in those massive Chappell crowds identifies as LGBTQ+, I don’t think that’s the case — she is appealing to the widest of audiences.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if it’s as meaningful as the other examples on the whole, but I think it’s particularly meaningful simply in its casting. If this was a decade ago, maybe Charli just enlists the guy from The Dare to be her leering co-star, and the results are fun but uninspiring. Instead, she keeps him behind the decks for “Guess” and allows her female peer to be the ogler — with much richer (and likely more successful) results. That’s a pretty big deal. Now the question is who on the hetero male side of pop hitmaking will be bold enough to do the same with a queer male star like Troye Sivan or Lil Nas X.
5. If you could flip the “Guess” batting order and have Charli XCX appear on a track from Hit Me Hard and Soft, which would you have her feature on?
Katie Bain: Given the hard left that “L’Amour de Ma Vie” takes at the 3:40 mark, it would create a huge sense of anticipation for Charli to show up on this last section of the song, which, which it’s ’80s synth production, exists within the electronic world she’s already so adept in.
Stephen Daw: I think a Charli feature on “L’Amour de Ma Vie,” especially with the song’s big electronic breakdown in its final minute, would be very cool. Maybe a duet takes the hyperpop concept and expands it into an entire dance remix for Charli and Billie to sing over, or maybe it gives Charli another chance to show off her ballad skills like she did on Brat’s SOPHIE tribute “So I” — either method would make for a stunning new version of the song.
Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with “The Diner” — it’s got a cheeky streak that’s up Charli’s alley, and I’m imagining her pumping up that pre-outro bridge. Let’s do it, folks!
Taylor Mims: My first thought was “Lunch” since it sonically makes sense for Charli, but I wouldn’t want to change that song in the slightest. So, “L’Amour De Ma Vie” would be my runner-up. The track would probably need to be put in electro-overdrive, but the lyrical content would be fun for Charli to step into. A Charli verse about a terrible ex would undoubtedly be a banger and would take that dagger of a song and make it a death blow.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t be surprised if Billie and Charli were planning a “Lunch” Pt. 2 — “Linner,” perhaps? “Tea Time”? — as we speak.
One of the fastest-rising artists of the 2020s takes another step up the ladder this week, as Chappell Roan hits new highs on both the Billboard 200 albums chart and the Billboard Hot 100.
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Thanks to a summer-long crescendoing of public interest (and less clutter this week from big album debuts), Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess albums climbs 8-4 on the Billboard 200 dated Aug. 10. Meanwhile “Good Luck, Babe!” ascends 10-8 on the Hot 100 — highest of her six separate entries on the chart this week, with all except the newer “Babe” hailing from Midwest Princess.
Which of the two charts is Roan likely to top first? And what impact will the tremendous success she’s enjoying have on the larger music industry? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess jumps four spots to a new high of No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, reaching the peak in its 19th week on the chart, while “Good Luck, Babe!” climbs 10-8 this week to also hit a new peak on the Hot 100. If you had to bet on one of them to reach No. 1 on their respective charts, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: If I had to bet on one of them reaching No. 1 on their respective charts, I would choose “Good Luck, Babe!” Singles often have an easier upward trajectory on the charts because they stand alone. Often times a single is its own story allowing it to capture the audience attention in a shorter time frame and then generate sales and streams. On the other hand, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a combination of 14 tracks, so its chart performance depends on the reception of all the songs. This makes its rise potentially slower as multiple factors contribute to its overall success.
Kyle Denis: This is hard – especially because a No. 1 on both charts (perhaps the same week?) is definitely not out of the question! If I had to bet on one of them, I would put my money on Midwest Princess topping the Billboard 200. It’s one of the few albums in recent memory that’s genuinely being consumed as a unit versus individual songs. The singles chart also feels more competitive right now; the chart’s top ten has been relatively stagnant in recent weeks. Nonetheless, should a “Good Luck, Babe!” music video arrive soon, all bets are off.
Lyndsey Havens: I think “Good Luck, Babe!” is well on its way to a becoming a Hot 100 chart topper. As evidenced by the gradual climb of both the hit and its respective album, Chappell manages to grow more and more powerful with each passing week. And on the heels of her epic Lollapalooza performance in Chicago this past weekend – where she garnered the biggest crowd to date across the fest’s global franchise – I would expect to see “Babe” jump into the chart’s top 5, at least. And as we should all know by now, it’s only up from there, as it seems Chappell has all the luck she needs.
Andrew Unterberger: We’re getting to the point where it feels like she could make the jump on either chart with a single lever pull — either a music video or official remix for “Babe” or a deluxe reissue of Princess would likely do the respective tricks. (A deluxe Princess reissue featuring a new remix of “Babe” could possibly even accomplish the double whammy.) But assuming she doesn’t do any of that, I’d probably vote for “Babe,” just because it’s still massive on streaming and growing on radio, and every new bump in momentum she gets — a gigantic festival set here, a political endorsement there — seems to hoist it higher. But it very well might end up being a photo finish between the two.
Christine Werthman: I’m going with “Good Luck, Babe!” going to No. 1 on the Hot 100. I’ve heard it on the radio multiple times a day, in coffee shops, at rest stops — the song is everywhere. I know the album has a shorter climb to the top, but I’m skeptical that it would dethrone Taylor.
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2. While “Babe” remains her lone top 10 hit, the Hot 100 is increasingly overrun with Roan songs the past couple months — also including “Hot to Go!” (No. 26), “Pink Pony Club” (No. 42), “Red Wine Supernova” (No. 52), “Casual” (No. 76) and “Femininomenon” (No. 86) — most of which are still rising on streaming and/or radio. If you had to bet on one of those songs eventually joining “Babe” in the top 10, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: I would have to say “Hot to Go!” — it’s my favorite out of the bunch. The song has a catchy melody that’s infectious and lyrics that are easy to remember. “Hot to Go!” is also filled with a joyful message of self-love, which resonates with many listeners and allows the track to connect with a wide audience. Additionally, the track features an easy-to-learn dance routine that pairs perfectly with the chorus, making it even more engaging and shareable, especially on TikTok.
Kyle Denis: Although “Hot to Go!” is punchier and already has a head start, I’m betting on “Red Wine Supernova” — that melody is undeniable, and her voice drips with charisma on that track. I can also see a case being made for “Pink Pony Club,” given how emotional its message is.
Lyndsey Havens: Impossible to pick just one. The magic of Roan is that any of these songs – if not all – could have sleeper hit potential. I’ve lost count of all the times I have heard someone humming “Casual,” or blasting “Pink Pony Club” from their car — and even my mom has become familiar with the “Hot to Go” arm moves after seeing enough Lolla clips on social media. But while I think “Pony” and “Hot” are rightfully leading the charge right now – as both are amped up summer-ready hits – I wouldn’t count “Casual” out just yet. As the season cools down and we head into fall, that song falls more in line with the aesthetic of the season and could ultimately surpass its frontrunners.
Andrew Unterberger: The fact that any of the five are highly credible and conceivable candidates here is pretty insane to begin with — but I’m leaning towards “Pink Pony Club,” which has a sorta slow-building anthemic quality to it that seems like it could prove kinda inextinguishable in the months to come. Hell, even Blink-182 is riffing on it now.
Christine Werthman: I could see “Casual” getting used in a show or movie and that being the boost it needs to take a run at the top. “Casual” is the first Roan song I ever heard in 2022, and I thought it was so clever in its summation of situationship confusion (also accurately described the same year in the beginning of the FKA twigs song “oh my love”). It’s not as bombastic as some of the other Hot 100 options from Roan, but it’s still quirky, smart and honest, with a big belting moment, highly specific scenes and a singalong chorus. It remains one of my favorites.
3. We’re practically starting to run out of Rise and Fall songs that aren’t already Hot 100 hits — but if you had to bet on one more to join the party at this point, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: I think “California” has great potential to join the Hot 100. “California” is Roan’s reflection on the pursuit of dreams and the inevitable disappointment that sometimes comes with them. She sings about someone who leaves their home to chase their dreams in California, a land of opportunity much like New York. However, upon arriving, Roan realizes she may have been disillusioned, yearning to return home and relive what she left behind. This is a deeply relatable story, as many people leave their hometowns for school or their dream jobs, only to face unexpected challenges and homesickness. In this track, Roan is raw and honest, and I believe her audience can respect and connect with the complex emotions she shares.
Kyle Denis: Probably “My Kink Is Karma,” people love that one!
Lyndsey Havens: As someone who’s not even on TikTok, I know that “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” sure is. That song is so much fun and, as such, so very Brat.
Andrew Unterberger: The smart bet is definitely “My Kink Is Karma,” since that’s built enough streaming momentum to already be on the cusp of making the chart. But “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” feels like the most single-ready of the remaining non-Hot 100 hits — and it’s being used in a suddenly unavoidable Marshall’s commercial — while “Naked in Manhattan” is forever just a big synch away from going absolutely nuclear. We’ll see.
Christine Werthman: I’m putting my chips on “My Kink Is Karma.” Like “Casual,” it’s a mid-tempo song filled with super-specific, clever callouts and an explosive vocal moment. As we’ve seen with other Hot 100 hitmakers (see: Olivia Rodrigo, Gayle), artists find success with tell-off tracks. Roan’s is a takedown, but her delivery is too cool to care, as she coos, “Wishing you the best in the worst way/ Using your distress as foreplay.” It’s a wicked little number, and though it made it onto the Bubbling Under chart, it deserves to jump to the Hot 100.
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4. Chart success is one thing, but last Thursday Chappell Roan also played to a late-afternoon Lollapalooza crowd so packed to the back of Grant Park that the photos and videos almost defied belief — especially considering she only made her first appearance on either the Billboard 200 or Hot 100 just four months ago. What do you think is the biggest reason Roan has been able to experience such exponentially expanding success over such a short period of time?
Christopher Claxton: Chappell Roan has a sound that feels both fresh and familiar, making her music incredibly accessible. Her voice and style bring to mind a combination of Taylor Swift and Lana Del Rey, with songs like “Casual” echoing the youthful charm of early Taylor Swift. Moreover, her songs are versatile — they’re perfect for a commute to work, energizing for a workout at the gym, and captivating for live performances. Many artists struggle to create songs that are equally good for streaming and performing, but Chappell Roan seems to have mastered this balance. This versatility, along with her relatable lyrics and engaging melodies, has allowed her to connect with a wide audience and experience rapid success.
Kyle Denis: In addition to Midwest Princess being stacked with stone-cold bangers, Chappell’s live show has really helped her exponential rise. From opening up for Olivia Rodrigo to this latest Lollapalooza set, her theatrical, campy and intensely physical performances have captivated audiences across the country – even those who may not have been enamored with her music off a casual Spotify listen. She’s also making pop music that truly feels fresh; she’s unabashedly queer, her songwriting is evocative yet accessible, and she’s speaking directly to the rising generation of pop music consumers.
Lyndsey Havens: Something I’ve been talking about a lot lately is the idea of a narrative – something that, in an era of TikTok-propelled stars – has felt like less of a driving factor for stardom today. But with Chappell, not only is the music incredible but her story is, too: being dropped by a major label only to move back home only to not lose faith and work even harder only to reemerge more herself and have those songs be the ones that connect so deeply. What has made her rise so much fun for fans new and old is that it feels incredibly earned, and she doesn’t shy away from just how long her journey to the top has been – which is exactly why it feels so special to be a part of it now.
Andrew Unterberger: The biggest thing for me with Chappell is that she seems to be pulling in fans from all age groups. She obviously has the teens and early 20-somethings in her pocket, but I also can’t remember another new pop artist in my adult lifetime who’s inspired more visible excitement in grown folks I know who don’t normally follow or care about contemporary pop music. I’m still not totally sure what to attribute that to, aside from the fact that she’s reminiscent of the best parts of pop stars who emerged a generation earlier (namely Lady Gaga and Katy Perry), so she feels instantly familiar to older fans — but with a modern spin and underdog edge that makes her feel fresh and fun to root for. It’s fascinating stuff, and we’re going to be unpacking all of it for a long time to come.
Christine Werthman: Roan’s album dropped in September 2023, but 2024 brought her a host of live performance opportunities that catapulted her to a wider audience: opening slots on Olivia Rodrigo’s tour, legendary sets at Coachella, Governors Ball and Bonnaroo, and an epic Tiny Desk concert. The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a no-skips album, but Roan really shines live, and this year, she got the proper stages to showcase her talents, which has led people back to her album.
5. Roan’s runaway success is so staggering that it’s bound to cause ripple effects throughout the industry. What’s one way you could (or already do) see her breakout having either a short-term or long-term impact on the music world?
Christopher Claxton: While the full impact of Roan’s success may still be unfolding, one notable short-term effect is her influence on fashion and performance aesthetics. Her elaborate outfits, ranging from the Statue of Liberty to a wrestler and a fairy, have become major talking points. This emphasis on theatrical and eye-catching costumes is likely to inspire other artists to invest more in their visual presentation, enhancing both their performances and their overall appeal. In the long-term, Roan’s success highlights the growing importance of platforms like TikTok in an artist’s career. The platform’s ability to turn snippets into viral sensations can significantly amplify a song’s reach and impact, leading more artists to harness TikTok and platforms like it to advance their music and connect with audiences in creative ways.
Kyle Denis: Opening slots on major tours have always been coveted gets, but I think after the explosive growth of Gracie Abrams and Sabrina Carpenter post-Eras Tour and Roan post-Guts Tour will make artists and their teams even more hellbent on securing those spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if Amaarae, who is opening up for Carpenter’s upcoming trek, experiences a similar jump in success. And the same goes for whoever Roan picks to open her inevitable headlining tour.
Lyndsey Havens: I think both in and out of the industry people are driving with their eyes on the rear-view mirror much more – pushing ahead, but also giving much more thought, time and attention to artists who may have previously been overlooked or pushed in a wrong direction or simply not afforded patience. I think – and hope – the success that Chappell is having right now is placing an emphasis back on slow growth and supported artist development. Now that we have all caught up to Chappell, maybe we’ll be more ready for whomever comes next.
Andrew Unterberger: Folks are learning they need to pay attention to opening acts! Between Sabrina Carpenter going supernova post-Eras Tour and Chappell becoming massive following her run kicking off the Guts World Tour, it’s clear that the opener slots on these big-ticket tours — which are increasingly central events in pop culture, even for those not attending — can function as sort of a minor-league feeder system for burgeoning talents who are already ready for the big show. We’re going to see far more eyes on those artists, hoping to catch a future superstar in an embryonic stage, and hopefully we’re going to see those artists doing everything they can to step their own games up and seize the opportunity in front of them.
Christine Werthman: I don’t know that I’ve seen much yet, but I hope her success throws open the door for more queer pop stars on the main stage.
A whole lot has changed in the music industry of course of the 21st century, but one thing has remained entirely consistent: When Eminem releases a new album, that thing goes straight to No. 1.
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This week, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace) becomes Eminem’s latest new LP to top the Billboard 200 (on the chart dated July 27), now an 11-album streak that dates all the way back to 2000 sophomore set The Marshall Mathers LP. With its bow atop the chart, the finale for Em’s longtime alter ego deposes Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department — which had reigned for its first 12 weeks of release, but now slips to No. 4 on the listing.
How has Eminem remained so consistently successful for 25 years now? And what will he do next now that his signature persona has been laid to rest? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Eminem scores his 11th consecutive No. 1 new album this week with The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace), moving 281,000 units in the album’s first week. On a scale of 1-10, how happy do you think he should be with that debut performance?
Anna Chan: 10 out of 10! Not only was he the artist who unseated Taylor Swift from her impressive 12-week reign of the Billboard 200, TDOSS also had the biggest week of any rap album so far this year – nothing to sneeze at.
Kyle Denis: Solid 8. It’s a handsome debut that’s relatively in line with his last few studio LPs, he has a concurrent Hot 100 top 10 hit in lead single “Houdini” this week, and he’ll go down in history as the artist who ended Swift’s historic run atop the Billboard 200. I’m sure he would have liked to clear the 300,000 mark, but this is nothing to scoff at.
Jason Lipshutz: A 9. One point deducted for getting close to the 300k mark without quite getting there, but this is a mainstream triumph for an artist who’s 25 years into his career, and who strode past Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department with ease, after months of other artists failing to knock the album out of the top spot. As a commercial entity, The Death of Slim Shady has been a home run for Eminem, considering the continued success of lead single “Houdini,” and now the splashy bow of the full-length.
Michael Saponara: 7. It’s more than 2020’s Music to Be Murdered By, which is a win, but when you’re the best-selling rapper of all-time, any first week sum that starts with a two probably isn’t going to produce too much serotonin for the body.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe an 8. It’s a tremendous number for Eminem at this point in his career — really for just about any rapper in 2024 — and though it seems like he can pull those kinds of numbers in his sleep at this point, he certainly put his all into the rollout this time around. If this really is the end of an era for Eminem, it’s a thoroughly respectable performance to go out on.
2. Few, if any, rappers have managed the commercial consistency that Eminem has in his 25 years as a star — what do you think the biggest reason is he’s still able to produce such strong first-week performances this deep into his career?
Anna Chan: First and foremost, Em has been consistently talented throughout his entire career. But setting the talent aspect aside, he knows how to keep old fans around while building upon his base by bringing in new listeners. For example, on TDOSS, you’ve got Em staples such as hip-hop icon Dr. Dre as a producer again, the emotional track featuring strong female vocals (“Temporary” with frequent collaborator Skylar Grey), following up on fan favorites (“Guilty Conscience 2,” the sequel to Slim Shady LP’s “Guilty Conscience”), all while bringing on newer artists to drawn in fresh listeners not only from hip-hop, but other genres as well (most notably Jelly Roll on the stunning album closer “Somebody Save Me”).
Kyle Denis: He’s been steadfast in his brand for a quarter-century. Even as he’s matured, the musical characters of Marshall Mathers and Slim Shady are mainstays in his catalog – from lyrics to album titles. He’s built a world based around himself that fans have been able to deconstruct and buy into for almost three decades. It’s hard to say that anyone else in hip-hop has accomplished that on this level. Nonetheless, you do also have to acknowledge the built-in capital he gets from being both a mainstream white rapper and a crossover star, his fanbase doesn’t mirror that of quite a few of hip-hop’s top artists, which works in his favor.
Jason Lipshutz: The combination of an extremely dedicated fan base who’s ready to support Eminem at every twist and turn, and a new project that was primed to appeal to casual fans who haven’t kept up with every release. Em is always going to have the diehards that will press play, regardless of whether his albums veer toward pop or toward the more idiosyncratic or puerile — but a full-length like The Death of Slim Shady, complete with a radio-ready lead single that harkens back to his zeitgeist-capturing early smashes, speaks to a listenership beyond that core. That’s how Eminem has maintained a level of consistency, while also scoring above-average debut figures like the one for The Death of Slim Shady.
Michael Saponara: I’m still trying to find out the actual answer to this one myself. It’s been an incredible run spanning 25 years and he’s seen different generations of rap come and go. Em’s popularity has crossed over into music deity territory to the point whenever he drops, he’s going to be a commercial force. He’s done a pretty good job of balancing feeding his fans, but not oversaturating the market the last decade. Nostalgia helps and he still maintains an image and vigor for rapping that somewhat resembles his prime.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s helped that with all his strengths and flaws, Eminem has always been a pretty obvious one of one — I don’t know which rapper you’d even consider to be the closest to him in terms of personality, style and skill, but even if there was an obvious pick there, chances are they’d have never tasted a fraction of his crossover visibility. If you were an Eminem fan 25 years ago, chances are pretty good no one has ever really taken over his place in your heart. So if you were one of those early fans (and you still care about music at all), that means you probably still care about Eminem.
3. While Eminem albums have almost always come strong out of the gate, in recent years they’ve struggled more to produce the extended impact of his early albums. Do you think Death will buck the trend, or will it also be a mostly one-week blast?
Anna Chan: There’s so much nostalgia (guess who’s back? It’s not just Slim Shady – but Ken Kaniff too!) to go with the classic Shady and grown-up Eminem that I give TDOSS at least two to three weeks at No. 1, possibly more – though perhaps not consecutive weeks. After all, there doesn’t appear to be a super-strong, likely long-lasting new challenger until Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion in mid-August.
Kyle Denis: Probably a one-week blast unless one of the songs clicks. My money is on the JID and Jelly Roll tracks.
Jason Lipshutz: It will buck the trend thanks to “Houdini.” The continued strength of the single will ensure that the album maintains a streaming presence and keep The Death of Slim Shady from falling out of the cultural consciousness too quickly. I’m not sure it will be able to spend a ton of time atop the Billboard 200 in the coming months, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it lingering in the top 10 of the chart as the weather cools off and we start thinking about holiday plans.
Michael Saponara: I think he bucks the trend. This project seems to be cutting through more than Music to Be Murdered By and I believe the “Houdini” rapper has a few more tricks up his sleeve to boost sales and interest. Does he pull a deluxe out of his hat?
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s ultimately gonna be a pretty short commemorative service for Slim — but it’s worth pointing out that the album hasn’t seen physical release yet, so when those CD and vinyl versions of it ship (in September and October, respectively), it wouldn’t be shocking to see the album surge back up the Billboard 200.
4. Now that Eminem has pronounced the death of his signature rap alter ego, what would you like to see him do for his next act?
Anna Chan: We already know he’s a funny man from some of his lyrics and music videos, and that he can put butts in theater seats (remember when 8 Mile opened at No. 1?), so why not combine the two and put him in some comedy films? (I’m still cackling at his Crank Yankers episode!)
Kyle Denis: Continue uplifting the next generation of Detroit rappers and make a project that doesn’t feel like torture to sit through.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d love to see him try something totally different, with new collaborators and an unexpected aesthetic. Eminem’s technical skill is undeniable, and he has nothing left to prove within the hip-hop space that he’s carved out for himself. And while projects like The Death of Slim Shady are wide-ranging and crowd-pleasing, they also riff on a lot of the beats he’s previously played. Why not stray into the unknown and push the limits of his artistry, with the knowledge that he could always return to his preferred mode? Fingers crossed that he spends the next few years taking the chances he has thoroughly earned.
Michael Saponara: I enjoyed the conceptuality of TDOSS and I can’t quit Slim Shady. Maybe it’s because that’s the Em I grew up on, but I’d like to see a resurrection of Slim Shady down the line at some point.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a Bad Meets Evil-style teamup with a Detroit up-and-comer? Em’s shown interest in helping to cultivate the next generation of Motown talent, and his sometimes-overbearing personality can seem a lot fresher as one half of a pass-the-mic duo. Could be cool.
5. Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department falls to No. 4 in its 13th week on the ranking — the first time since its debut it hasn’t been No. 1. Do you think it gets back to the top spot in the next few weeks, or has its reign mostly come to an end?
Anna Chan: My Magic 8-Ball predicts Swift will reach back into her bag, bruh, and possibly drop some new version(s) of TTPD to reinvigorate the album’s numbers and get back into the No. 1 spot.
Kyle Denis: Knowing Taylor, she has 500 other versions of the album to put up for sale, so she’ll be back in the top spot soon enough. Not to mention she’s officially announced the album’s second radio single (“I Can Do It With a Broken Heart’) and the Eras Tour will be back in the States by October.
Jason Lipshutz: It will get back to No. 1. “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” might turn into a real smash in the coming weeks, and there are always more consumers to find, especially as the holiday season draws near. The lesson remains the same: underestimate Taylor at your own risk.
Michael Saponara: Is this bait to get in the Swifty crosshairs? I don’t want that smoke. Taylor Swift will find her way back to the apex one way or another. The TTPD train isn’t coming to a halt just yet.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it might take Swift a few weeks, but she’ll be back. There’s still new CD editions to be shipped, new singles and videos to be unveiled — maybe she’ll even get in the mix with the presidential election at some point? We haven’t heard the last of Poets to be sure.
The streak continues at least one more week for Taylor Swift: With her Tortured Poets Department spending its 12th week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart (dated July 20), she now has the longest-reigning LP of her entire storied career. And just below it this week: Americana superstar Zach Bryan’s 19-track new LP The Great American Bar Scene.
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While Bar Scene debuted at No. 17 on last week’s Billboard 200 after just its first day of release — with the album receiving an unusual Thursday release to coincide with the 4th of July holiday — it jumps to No. 2 this week, with 137,000 units moved in its first full week of release. While that number is higher than any second-place finisher on the 200 since Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft in early June, it’s down from Bryan’s 2023 self-titled set, which posted 200,000 units and debuted atop the 200.
How should Bryan feel about the set’s early performance? And what might he look to change with his next album and its rollout? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. The Great American Bar Scene reaches No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with 137,000 units moved in its first full week of availability. Is that first-week performance lower, higher, or about what you would have expected from Zach Bryan’s new set?
Kyle Denis: These numbers are definitely a bit lower than I expected. Granted the album didn’t spawn an instant first-week smash à la “I Remember Everything” (with Kacey Musgraves), but I thought the goodwill from his arena-packing tour and the steady streaming performance of “Pink Skies” would be enough for the set to at least match the first-week total of Bryan’s 2023 self-titled LP.
Jason Lipshutz: A little lower based on last year’s self-titled bow, which cracked 200,000 (albeit with a traditional Friday release). Bryan has only grown in stature since last August’s album release — “I Remember Everything” with Kacey Musgraves has joined songs like “Something in the Orange” and “Heading South” as a signature track, while Bryan has been playing to stadium crowds in the album interim — so while another six-figure showing is impressive, especially less than a year after the last full-length, the dip in equivalent album units was a little unexpected.
Jessica Nicholson: That number feels close to what I would expect, given its July 4 release date and given that fans (especially Bryan superfans) are more apt to delve into the album deeply within its first few days of release.
Kristin Robinson: This is below what I would’ve guessed, especially because this album had 19 songs, a pretty long track listing and longer than his self-titled album from 2023 which had a better first week. Given Zach has picked up so many fans in the last couple years, I would think the long track list plus growing fanbase would equal a stronger first week than previous projects for him. In the streaming era, I think the second and third weeks are especially telling for the success of the album so I’m waiting to see what the next weeks bring – were these first week numbers primarily one-time curiosity listens or will this album be a grower?
Andrew Unterberger: It’s lower. When Zach Bryan debuted with 200,000 units last year, it was attention-grabbing, but it also felt like it was just the beginning for him — his trajectory just kept going up from there, right up to the No. 6 Hot 100 debut for “Pink Skies” last month. To be honest, I thought this album’s debut (well, technically not debut, but you know) would leave the self-titled’s in the dust, and I remain a little at a loss for why it’s instead coming up well short.
2. The first-full-week numbers are down from Bryan’s prior self-titled set, which bowed at No. 1 with 200,000 units in September 2023. What do you think is the biggest reason for the decreased performance?
Kyle Denis: Definitely the lack of a something as instantaneous as “I Remember Everything.” On that note, Kacey is arguably the most streaming-friendly artist Bryan has ever put on one of his studio albums, and the lack of an artist of that specific caliber probably contributed to a dip in general interest for the new record. There’s also the fact that Bryan has been notably ubiquitous over the past two years ago – not that that’s stunted the success of other massive artists like Taylor Swift and Drake. The difference here is that Bryan has released three LPs, one live album, two EPs and several standalone singles in the past two years – and they rarely deviate from his trademark sound. People might be feeling just a little bit of Zach Bryan fatigue.
Jason Lipshutz: The Great American Bar Scene was likely hamstrung by both the Fourth of July release — with plenty of Americans not paying attention to new music that Thursday, and queuing up another spin of “Party in the USA” while celebrating the holiday — as well as an over-saturation of Bryan’s recorded material. The singer-songwriter has become an undisputed superstar, but even the biggest artist would likely struggle to conjure as much excitement around a new 19-song project as the 16-song project that they released 11 months earlier. So while Bryan’s devoted listeners were ready for The Great American Bar Scene to arrive, I’d guess that some casual fans weren’t quite as prepared to press play during its opening week. And that’s fine! Bryan will have plenty of material for both his stadium shows and for all types of listeners to discover at their own pace.
Jessica Nicholson: 2024 has been a year of big album releases so far — Beyonce, Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, Future and Metro Boomin among them — so one reason for the decreased performance could simply be there are already so many attention-grabbing projects out there for fans to consume this year. That’s in addition to a more upbeat, danceable slate of viral hits that have dominated the first half of 2024, such as Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” the Wallen/Post collab “I Had Some Help” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso.”
Kristin Robinson: Two things. First, I just think the self-titled album was stronger in general. That album was a phenomenal highlight reel of what Zach is capable of as a singer-songwriter. Second, I think Zach’s free-wheeling approach to releases can hurt him and it did here. He does not like playing the industry game, which I can respect to a certain extent, but sometimes his unwillingness to do typical promotion and marketing means that fans just are not aware that new music is coming. Pair that with the fact that he’s put out more music in the last twelve months than some artists do in the span of 2-5 years and you garner a mix of confusion or even apathy from fans with each release.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s easy to blame the 4th of July drop — both for splitting up his first-week numbers and for burying news of its release — and to some extent, it’s probably fair. But I don’t totally buy it as the only or even the main explanation; when artists are as big in 2024 as Zach Bryan has become, fans will find your new album one way or the other, and it’s not like Bryan ever benefited from a particularly massive rollout on prior albums either. I’m more likely to buy that folks are just a little too spent on Bryan — or based on his robust catalog numbers, maybe too busy catching up with the older stuff? — at the moment to stream this new album with any particular ravenousness, and that with no physical release yet to go with the set, his early numbers are a little vulnerable to such dips in enthusiasm. But I’m still sorta stunned the dip was this pronounced.
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3. The two big hits from the album so far seem to be the pre-release single “Pink Skies” and the new top 20 debut “28.” Which of the two songs do you think will ultimately be the biggest hit from the set — or do you think something else on the album will overtake both?
Kyle Denis: I think “Pink Skies” will ultimately stand as the album’s biggest hit, but “28” could certainly overtake it with a remix. While I find the John Mayer joint (“Better Days”) just okay, there’s certainly potential for it to become another hit off the record based solely on their combined star power.
Jason Lipshutz: “Pink Skies” is the one that will endure, based on both its Hot 100 track record and its sonic makeup; the song remains the highest-charting new Bryan song a few weeks after its release, and its harmonica-heavy, gently rendered reflections of post-death togetherness is ripe for getting fans choked up at Bryan’s shows, in between bellowing out the lyrics. “Pink Skies” demonstrates Bryan’s appeal as a detailed storyteller and subtly powerful vocalist, and will be the defining song from this set.
Jessica Nicholson: “Pink Skies” is beautifully delivered, and music listeners seem to have gravitated toward the song’s story of navigating loss, while the jangly percussion and harmonica keep it from being too forlorn. This seems to have gained the most traction, though “28” feels slightly smoother, sonically, so I could see it potentially overtaking “Pink Skies” as the album’s biggest hit.
Kristin Robinson: I think “28” will be the most dominant song from this album overall in terms of popularity. That hook is undeniable. But “Pink Skies,” which is about grief and losing a loved one, will continue to live on as a favorite among the fanbase. I see it being cemented in his live sets and continuing to be a high streamer for him, but maybe not his greatest crossover success.
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, with Bryan’s (still objectively impressive) first-week numbers coming in a little bit soft by his current standards, the massive bow of “Pink Skies” — and its continued top 20 endurance — becomes even more impressive in retrospect. It may end up being more of a defining hit for him than I would’ve thought upon its debut.
4. The guests on Bar Scene are split between the galactically famous (Bruce Springsteen, John Mayer) and the more if-you-know-you-know type (John Moreland, Noeline Hofmann). Do any of them bring out anything particularly new or interesting from Bryan and his music to you?
Kyle Denis: Not particularly – and that’s part of why the new record feels a bit limp at times. There’s nothing close to “Hey Driver,” which found The War and Treaty’s robust, soulful tones pushing Bryan into new, refreshing vocal territory.
Jason Lipshutz: Noeline Hofmann is the first guest that appears on the Great American Bar Scene track list, on the beautiful and affecting duet “Purple Gas,” and the singer-songwriter had me feeling like the Shaq “I wasn’t familiar with your game” meme. Hofmann not only holds her own against Bryan, but her soaring tone complements the more gravelly aspects of his delivery; not only did “Purple Gas” make me want to take a deeper dive into her discography, but it also made me hope that this collaboration wouldn’t be a one-off.
Jessica Nicholson: Bryan’s music incorporates elements of so many different styles, that each of his collaborations feels cohesive with the album’s solo tracks. Some lean slightly more rock, others folk or bluesy, but they are all within Bryan’s expansive musical wheelhouse.
Kristin Robinson: Zach tends to do this – equally mixing newer, smaller artists as features next to his big-name heroes. I love that about his records. I was especially impressed by Noeline Hofmann, and I plan to dig into her own music based on her performance on “Purple Gas.” She did not pull out anything particularly new for Zach, we already saw this side of him on the Kacey Musgraves duet “I Remember Everything,” but I think their voices blended well.
Andrew Unterberger: I like John Mayer adding a little loose-limbed jamminess to “Better Days.” There’s definitely something to be unlocked for Bryan and his band there — consider the fever pitch that “Revival” hits live when it stretches out to double-digit minutes, and maybe apply some of those lessons to a mid-album curveball or two next time around.
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5. Bryan may very well be the type of artist who doesn’t put a ton of stock in his first-week performance — but assuming he was, and didn’t want to see those numbers continue to slide from album to album, what’s the most important piece of advice you would give him before he sets out on his next LP?
Kyle Denis: Try not to dilute your presence with so many projects in such quick succession. Let the music – and yourself – breathe for more than a few months at a time.
Jason Lipshutz: I could tell Bryan to hold off a little bit in between album releases in order to stoke anticipation for his next album a little more cleanly, or limit his track list to the sturdiest 12 tracks to limit the sprawl a bit — but honestly, what Bryan has accomplished over the past two years is so wildly impressive that, if I were him, I wouldn’t take a ton of stock in outside opinions! Bryan has toed the line between gargantuan commercial success and industry singularity, blazing his own trail in country-rock without abiding by traditional rollouts or release schedules; while I’d be tempted to nudge him toward music-biz conventions to help his first-week performances rise even higher, that would also betray what he’s created for himself. So: Keep doing you, Zach, and the world will keep listening.
Jessica Nicholson: Bryan is a prolific writer — over the past year, he’s issued a 16-song self-titled project, the five-song Boys of Faith project, and now his 19-song The Great American Bar Scene album. Perhaps giving slightly more time between project releases would be a good option. The past few releases have included several collaborations with a wide-ranging array of artists, which have sparked intrigue and discussion. Continuing the next project with collaborations with some unexpected artists would seem an obvious choice.
Kristin Robinson: Plan out a true roll out. It doesn’t have to be like everyone else’s. I believe there’s a way to craft a roll out that doesn’t make you look like a pop star sell out. I’m still marveling at Charli XCX’s Brat roll out which felt so totally her, and did a great job at reminding people every other week that she had music coming. We live in a time where our attention is divided more than ever, and I would love to live in a Zach Bryan “era” for longer than what he typically gives to fans. Build the world around the music!
Andrew Unterberger: Take a lesson from The Boss: Bryan’s hero and collaborator never stayed in the same place for multiple albums, switching up his approach, his structure, his songwriting and his themes for pretty much every new record during his peak. What would a Zach Bryan small-town theatrical epic sound like? Or a collection of haunted folk ballads? Or — as I wondered the last time we did this — a hits-on-hits-on-hits blockbuster? Part of Bryan’s charm to date has been that his albums haven’t felt overly considered — neither did Springsteen’s first couple — but the really great ones can also plot out a full LP from top to bottom and execute it to perfection. I’m hoping he shows us that side of his skill set next time out.
This week, country singer-songwriter Shaboozey clears the final “Bar” on the Billboard Hot 100 (dated July 13) with his breakout crossover hit.
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which heavily interpolates Chingy’s No. 2-peaking 2004 pop-rap smash “Tipsy,” climbs 2-1 in its 12th week on the Hot 100. The single, from Shaboozey’s recently released Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going becomes the second song from a Black artist to top both the Hot 100 and the Hot Country Songs charts in the same week this year — following Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em,” from her Cowboy Carter album, which also features Shaboozey on two separate tracks.
What does the song hitting No. 1 mean for both Shaboozey and for country music? And who could be the next breakout start to reach the Hot 100’s apex for the first time in 2024? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Shaboozey scores his first Hot 100 No. 1 with “A Bar Song,” in its 12th week on the chart. What do you think was the biggest factor in it making the jump from viral hit to chart-topping crossover smash?
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Josh Glicksman: Not a sexy answer here, but it’s more of several factors compounding to push “A Bar Song” into the stratosphere. The song’s twang fits squarely within the ever-present mainstream moment for country music in 2024; Shaboozey’s savvy interpolation of J-Kwon’s “Tipsy” plays well with the nostalgia factor that thrives on TikTok (even when the core demographic is probably a touch too young to remember the original in its heyday); and a well-timed radio push has not only kept the hit afloat but helped it get over the hump to No. 1.
Lyndsey Havens: Timing, all around. Shaboozey has had mild success prior to “A Bar Song,” which more importantly points to the fact that he has been building his career prior to “A Bar Song.” He and his team were not only prepared for a viral hit, but also knew how to strategize around it, ensuring the song would sustain beyond a social media spike. Plus, the timing of its release – on the heels of Shaboozey’s features on Beyonce’s Cowboy Carter, and at a time when country music is prevalent in the mainstream, and at the height of summer – has helped boost this smash to the top of the charts.
Jason Lipshutz: “A Bar Song” eventually reached No. 1 because it performed well across platforms and formats. The single has racked up hundreds of millions of streams and has been a mainstay in the top 10 of Spotify’s U.S. top songs chart for weeks on end; meanwhile, “A Bar Song” has also topped charts overseas, reached No. 1 on Hot Country Songs, and hit the top 10 of radio charts like Pop Airplay, Country Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic. Shaboozey has watched his breakthrough hit’s genre-straddling status unlock new audiences, and transcend its early viral-hit classification to become a multi-quadrant smash.
Melinda Newman: Without a doubt, the Beyoncé bounce. He was already making a nice name for himself as a developing artist, but in the six years since he had released his album debut, he had never charted. There was interest in the new album and music, but his association with Beyoncé poured gasoline on the fire and helped propel “A Bar Song” up many different charts covering several formats.
Andrew Unterberger: Like very few new songs, it’s actually selling! Most contemporary hits have one strong week of sales — if that — and then gently recede from there, but “A Bar Song” has topped Digital Song Sales for eight weeks now, consistently roping in new listeners and new fans. That’s allowed it to stay in range of the Hot 100’s top spot as it’s continued to grow on radio and leveled off (without really dropping off) on streaming.
2. Do you think “A Bar Song” is the start of a long career in hitmaking for Shaboozey, or do you think he’s going to struggle a bit living up to the massive breakout success of first solo chart hit?
Josh Glicksman: There are many instances of artists achieving a breakout hit so massive that it creates a looming shadow, but I don’t think that’s the case here. He’s not coming out of nowhere: late May full-length Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going — which debuted and peaked at No. 5 on the Billboard 200 — is already his third album. And between his own tracks, plus features on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, he has had four other songs reach various Billboard charts this year. He’s not at the level of an automatic top 40 artist yet, but his 2024 achievements should give him some reliable status on the charts for the foreseeable future.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m not sure he will ever have another hit quite like “A Bar Song,” but considering the strength of his latest album, Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going, I do think Shaboozey is already close to becoming a household name in this era of country music – and as such, think he should have a long career ahead.
Jason Lipshutz: Somewhere in the middle — “A Bar Song” is such a singular hit that it’ll be hard to replicate, but Shaboozey has established himself as a true, new-school star, able to turn a throwback rap hit into a forward-looking country sing-along and imbue that anthem with pop hooks and personality. Shaboozey possesses a unique perspective, and sounds comfortable blending sounds; “A Bar Song” may be his only No. 1 hit for a while, but he’s going to be around for a long time.
Melinda Newman: “A Bar Song” is turning into such a multi-format smash that it’s possible this will be his biggest career hit, but he has enough talent to keep building from here. Not every song will necessarily cross format lines, but it feels like this is just the commercial beginning for an artist who had been putting in the groundwork for years.
Andrew Unterberger: The size of “A Bar Song” maybe feels unrepeatable, but it’s hard to imagine a song this big and this good won’t be the start of a pretty meaningful career in country and pop music for Shaboozey. Hell, he even seemed right at home as a rare country performer among a majority of hip-hop and R&B artists at the BET Awards last week. Even if he never hits No. 1 again, I’d be very surprised if this was anywhere near his last time on the Hot 100.
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3. There’s been a lot of discussion about whether or not Black artists in country music would be getting more opportunities as a result of the early-year success of Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter album. Does the success of “A Bar Song” demonstrate to you that the Beyoncé Effect is real and demonstrable, or do you think it could still end up being more of a fluke?
Josh Glicksman: I wouldn’t call the song reaching No. 1 a fluke by any stretch whatsoever, but while the Beyoncé Effect is real — very real! — I’m not sure that I’d go so far as to say that it’s demonstrable yet, either. Or, at the very least, the music industry should be cognizant that there is still much work to be done before people should feel ready to pat themselves on the back with regard to giving Black artists in country music the opportunities they’ve long deserved and long been overlooked for within the genre.
Lyndsey Havens: I do think the Beyffect is real, and we are seeing its impact with an artist like Shaboozey — but that said, I also think Shaboozey would be having this moment even without the release of Cowboy Carter. Country music was gaining mainstream attention already, but Carter made sure that the foundational voices in the genre would not be left unheard. And for Shaboozey, I think it works both ways: some were introduced to him through Carter and stayed tuned in for his solo career, while others were attracted to his solo career, only to then discover Beyoncé was “early” on him. Either way, it’s not only a win for Shaboozey but for Black artists in country music as a whole — as he and Bey continue to make history on the charts and set the stage for more record breakers to come.
Jason Lipshutz: The connection between Cowboy Carter and the success of “A Bar Song” cannot be denied, considering how Beyoncé’s latest album introduced Shaboozey to a much wider audience thanks to a pair of features. However, I wouldn’t describe Cowboy Carter as a panacea for the lack of opportunities that Black artists have received in country music prior to this year, or proclaim “A Bar Song” hitting No. 1 as proof positive that those opportunities are finally being given. Artists of color with large and small footprints in the country music community have been gradually enacting change over the course of decades, and while a project like Cowboy Carter or a single like “A Bar Song” scan as important flash points, neither can solve this issue singlehandedly. There’s still a ton of work to do — let’s hope that both chart-toppers help speed up progress.
Melinda Newman: Unfortunately, it still feels more like a fluke. Cowboy Carter is a culturally significant album and one that highlighted the rich role that pioneering Black artists like Linda Martell, who appears on the album, played in country music’s history. But we’re not seeing a huge lift for current artists, and none of the other young Black artists on Cowboy Carter — Willie Jones, Tanner Adell, Brittney Spencer, Reyna Roberts or Tiera Kennedy — have seen major radio results or ongoing upticks in streams after the initial burst.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s not exactly a dam-bursting moment for Black artists in country music, but I do still think it’s a meaningful one. Even for as much chart success as Bey had with “Texas Hold ‘Em,” she didn’t quite reach escape velocity on country radio — the song peaked at No. 33 there, and nothing else from the album has even gotten near that much airplay. But “A Bar Song” is now a certified country radio smash, flying 12-6 on the chart this week and bursting through the door Beyoncé helped open. Hopefully the next Black country artist with a song as undeniable as “Texas” or “Bar” will have an even easier time being accepted into the Nashville fold, thanks in part to both of them.
4. Between Sabrina Carpenter and Shaboozey, it’s been a pretty good stretch lately for 2024 breakout artists scoring their first No. 1 on the Hot 100. Who’s an artist that’s been rising lately who you could see joining them in that club before year’s end?
Josh Glicksman: It’s hard to bet on anyone other than Chappell Roan, right? Listeners cannot get enough of her right now, sending four tracks from her 2023 debut album, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, to the Hot 100 in addition to her April 2024 single, “Good Luck, Babe!,” which enters the chart’s top 10 for the first time this week. Her star trajectory makes a No. 1 hit seem much more like a “when” than an “if” at this point.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m rooting for Role Model. The alternative artist is gearing up to release his second album Kansas Anymore, and while he has had a taste of the spotlight with prior releases and a past (and public) relationship with Emma Chamberlain, the music on his forthcoming effort marks a new direction. While the songs may not be as fun-filled as “Espresso” or “A Bar Song,” they fall more into the singer-songwriter lane that’s also resonating right now.
Jason Lipshutz: The logical answer would be Chappell Roan, based on her across-the-board momentum, and one could make the case that Tommy Richman could push his way up to No. 1 with “Million Dollar Baby” after spending weeks in the top 10, similar to what Shaboozey just achieved. But I’ll still go with Noah Kahan, who has turned into an arena-level A-lister, and is still earning tons of plays with “Stick Season” years after its release. If he drops a new single before year’s end, I could see that single reaching the top of the Hot 100, based on how much his profile has expanded over the past 12 months.
Melinda Newman: Chappell Roan. “Good Luck, Babe!” has just entered the Top 10 and it feels like she is going to be the next pop superstar. Like Shaboozey and Sabrina Carpenter, she has been at this game for years (including a previous record deal with Atlantic), so she’s been honing her craft and now her time has come.
Andrew Unterberger: Chappell Roan and Tommy Richman are probably the leaders in the clubhouse here given their current presence in the top 10, but I’m gonna go with a bit of a longer shot and say Central Cee. He’s been a chart-topping superstar in his home country of the U.K. for some time, and he’s inching ever-closer to being one here too — thanks largely to co-signs from (and collabs with) stateside A-listers like Drake, J. Cole and Lil Baby. Feels like only a matter of time to me until he gets one over the top on the Hot 100.
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5. J-Kwon’s “Tipsy”: certified classic, fun throwback, or best left in 2004?
Josh Glicksman: It’s a classic (that also doubles as a throwback). From the moment the crunchy, clapping production kicks in, it’s on. Few people have made simple counting more fun than J-Kwon in the past two decades, and even fewer have made the radio mix of their hits superior to the explicit version. Kudos to you, J-Kwon.
Lyndsey Havens: Certified classic – and very deserving of the revival.
Jason Lipshutz: Certified classic! Two decades after its release, that beat still makes my head knock when it stomps into view. Mid-00s hip-hop will always have a special spot in my heart, but “Tipsy” still sounds fresh today, even as some of the contemporary hits around it come across as dated. Perhaps that’s why Shaboozey scooped it up and held it high for the world to revisit and appreciate.
Melinda Newman: Total fun throwback. If you’re not old enough to know the original song from 2004, you still can enjoy Shaboozey’s song and if you do, it’s a nostalgic reminder to a time when your double shot of whiskey days were still in full effect
Andrew Unterberger: It’s funny: At the time, I would have been happy to leave it in 2004, since I thought it just sounded like a knock-off Nelly hook laid over a watered-down version of the “Grindin’” beat. But it’s aged much better than I expected — or maybe I’m just less snide about it after a couple of decades (what’s wrong with a knock-off Nelly hook or a watered-down “Grindin’” beat, anyway?) In any event, now I’d say it’s a very fun throwback, and in the right circumstances you could probably talk me into it being a certified classic.
A pair of good friends, tourmates and collaborators reside in the top two spots of the Billboard 200 this week: Taylor Swift remains at No. 1 with her April blockbuster The Tortured Poets Department, while Eras Tour opener Gracie Abrams bows at No. 2 with sophomore album The Secret of Us.
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It’s a notable week for both artists. Poets reigns for the 10th consecutive frame, making Swift the only artist with three 10-plus-week No. 1 albums in the 21st century. Meanwhile, The Secret of Us easily marks Abrams’ best showing on the chart to date, beating the No. 52 debut of her 2023 debut LP Good Riddance by a full 50 spots.
How much does this particular chart benchmark mean for Swift? And does Abrams’ strong debut mean she’s now countable among this year’s class of breakout pop stars? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. This week, Taylor Swift notches her 10th consecutive week atop the Billboard 200 with The Tortured Poets Department — the longest total reign of any album since Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time notched 19 combined weeks between 2023 and 2024, and her own longest rule since her original 1989 spent 11 weeks on top between 2014 and 2015. On a scale from 1-10, how meaningful do you think this run is for Swift and where she’s at in her career?
Rania Aniftos: I’m going to say 3, because this is the standard for Taylor at this point! She is without a doubt the biggest music star in the world at the moment, and it would shock me if any album of hers from here on out spends less than 10 weeks atop the Billboard 200.
Katie Atkinson: Let’s give it a 10 for 10. Looking at the releases that stood in her way, I don’t think anyone would have predicted that Swift would have an uninterrupted 10-week run at No. 1 back in April. After favoring late-year releases for the bulk of her career – especially October and November – it looks like Swift should maybe make the switch to April albums from here on out, seeing just how long she’s able to dominate the spring-into-summer conversation. Taylor continues to unlock new heights in her career just when you think she’s reached the very pinnacle.
Hannah Dailey: I’d say 7. On paper, that’s an incredibly impressive feat and very indicative of the career apex/popularity high Swift is currently riding. However, I can’t help but think the achievement is a little bit watered down by the fact that she released so, so many digital alternative versions along the way to stay on top (assuming that was her intention). Regardless of whether those sales were actually needed to elongate her reign, her latest accolade remains diluted by public perception that she was purposefully blocking other artists from hitting the No. 1 spot with that strategy.
Jason Lipshutz: A 6. Obviously spending 10 straight weeks atop the Billboard 200 represents a towering commercial feat, although these types of accomplishments are all relative for the biggest artist in the world, who’s in the middle of a precedent-smashing stadium tour, fresh off a record-setting fourth album of the year Grammy win, and who started this run at No. 1 with the biggest album debut of the 2020s. Plus, Swift has already spent more weeks atop the Billboard 200 with a different pop album (albeit one with a more radio-friendly sheen). So while TTPD reaching double-digit weeks at No. 1 is another testament to Swift’s continued enormity, the achievement itself probably feels less meaningful when stacked next to all of Swift’s other, bigger ones.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8. As massive as so many of Swift’s wins have been this decade, this is a sustained chart victory like she hasn’t really seen before. And of course, it’s one she’s seemed particularly motivated to maintain, so clearly it’s one of some amount of personal significance to her.
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2. Just below her on the chart this week, Swift’s Eras Tour opener Gracie Abrams bows at No. 2 with 89,000 units moved for her new album The Secret of Us — both easily the best numbers of her career. What do you think is the particular “secret” to Abrams’ success with this album?
Rania Aniftos: Her songwriting, for sure. Today’s music fans seem to love a storyteller, as we’ve seen with stars like Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Noah Kahan, Teddy Swims and more. Gracie is so honest in her music, and this album is a masterclass in authenticity and musicality. She deserves this overdue success!
Katie Atkinson: We can’t overlook the Taylor bump, of course. Sabrina Carpenter is currently reaching her apex just after opening for Swift in Latin America, Australia and Asia. Now Gracie is having her breakout moment after putting in more than a year as an Eras Tour opener. In this case, she quite literally has a hit Taylor collaboration on her new album, so it’s not just the appearance of a Taylor bump; it’s an actuality. But none of this would be happening if Abrams weren’t a solid artist in her own right who has earned the loyalty of the Swifties through her diaristic songwriting and fondness for Taylor-connected producers (Aaron Dessner, Jack Antonoff).
Hannah Dailey: I think Abrams has long been on an upward trajectory, steadily accumulating listeners from the moment she debuted in 2019 with “Mean It.” But it’s also clear to me that Swift’s cosign – from inviting Abrams to be an opener on the Eras Tour to collaborating on “Us” — is the thing that gave her the extra big push she needed to make it as high as No. 2, a huge improvement from debut album Good Riddance’s peak of No. 52.
Jason Lipshutz: The combination of Abrams’ artistic evolution and tireless work ethic has led her to her career-best chart showing. The Secret of Us marks a significant leap forward for Abrams as a songwriter, co-producer and vocal performer — last year’s Good Riddance was a strong debut, but its follow-up is more distinct and revealing, as if Abrams has dug deeper into what makes her special this year after scratching the surface in 2023. Meanwhile, Abrams has been grinding out tour dates, including headlining gigs and opening stints for her pal Swift, as well as executing a promo blitz for The Secret of Us that put the album release on a lot of radars. She’s issuing the best music of her career to an audience eager to lap it up.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s easy to just give a two-word answer to this — and it’s inarguable that the added spotlight that Taylor Swift has granted Abrams both on the Eras Tour and via her appearance on this set’s “Us” has helped greatly increase her profile. But it’s important to note that Abrams was headed in this direction for years before her association with Swift really developed, building a devoted fanbase, honing her writing and strengthening her performance, securing the right collaborators and slowly but surely extending her reach. She was always likely to get here, Swift just basically ensured that it would definitely happen — and quickly.
3. After a tough few years for rising pop artists attempting to break through, we’ve seen a number of very impressive crossover success stories this year, including Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and Tommy Richman. Do you think Abrams now belongs in the category with those still-rising new star artists, or does she still have a little more yet to prove?
Rania Aniftos: I think she’ll need one more big hit to follow “Close to You” to solidify her as a pop star, but she’s so close to sitting at that table. We’ll be seeing her headlining festivals in the future for sure.
Katie Atkinson: I think Gracie is at the moment now that Sabrina Carpenter was at last year – which is to say she has a strong following, some A-list endorsements, and a handful of buzzy songs, but she doesn’t yet have her jolt of “Espresso.” When Abrams has an undeniable signature song like that one break through not just on pop radio or with fringe pop fans but to the top five of the Billboard Hot 100, that’s when she’ll have officially arrived.
Hannah Dailey: As pop-facing as The Secret of Us is, Abrams is still way more in the indie singer-songwriter lane than Carpenter or Roan are, which makes it hard to compare them. Even so, there’s no matching the astronomical rises those latter two artists have seen this year. To Abrams’ credit, though, I can’t think of many other rising stars who are as close behind them as she is. It might just be a matter of time.
Jason Lipshutz: Yep, she belongs in that class to me. Those aforementioned artists all have singles that have either reached the top 10 of the Hot 100 or come darn close; Abrams isn’t there quite yet, but I could see the singles from The Secret of Us, “Risk” and “Close to You,” make a push as the album receives more streams this summer. And in the same way that Carpenter turned an opening spot on the Eras tour into her own arena headlining gigs, Abrams is playing some major venues in support of The Secret of Us, with arenas not too far away, in my opinion. Abrams was already rising prior to this album release — she scored a best new artist Grammy nom, after all — but The Secret of Us is going to level her up into a new class of young stars.
Andrew Unterberger: In a different way, but basically, yes. She doesn’t have a major pop hit yet anywhere near the level of “Espresso,” “Million Dollar Baby” or even “Good Luck, Babe!” — that might come soon or it might still be an album or two away. But what she does have is arguably more valuable: a fanbase willing to shell out for physical albums, as Secret tops Billboard‘s Top Album Sales chart this week with its 50,000 sold, also adding another 38,000 in streaming equivalent album units. When you’re both selling and streaming in strong numbers, that means not are you really big, but you’re probably gonna stay that way for some time to come.
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4. Swift and Abrams have a song together, “Us,” that debuts at No. 36 on the Hot 100 this week — becoming Abrams’ highest-ranking hit yet on the chart — while Abrams’ own “Close to You” remains at No. 60 after debuting at No. 49 a couple weeks ago, and her previously released “Risk” makes its debut at No. 94. Which of the three do you see ending up becoming the biggest hit from The Secret of Us, if any of them?
Rania Aniftos: I do love “Close to You” because it really has something for every pop fan. It has the songwriting, it has the catchiness, it has the vocals, it has the TikTok virality. I see it becoming a longtime fan favorite hit.
Katie Atkinson: I’m going to put my money on “Close to You,” just because I can see its uptempo production hanging around a little longer than the Taylor duet. To keep the Sabrina analogy going, maybe “Close to You” will be Gracie’s “Feather,” which was Carpenter’s first Pop Airplay No. 1 before her certified breakout with “Espresso” and then “Please Please Please.”
Hannah Dailey: “Close to You” is such a bop, and fans have been begging her to release it for about seven years now – that’s a lot of built-in hype. Plus, it’s all over TikTok. I think that song’s the front-runner.
Jason Lipshutz: I was a big fan of “Risk” upon its release, and “Us” sounds like a worthy addition to Swift and Dessner’s enchanted forest of indie-leaning folk-pop. But “Close to You” is the one, thanks to its tempo and urgency: the song stomps forward as Abrams declares “I burn for you / And you don’t even know my name,” in a way that recalls Lorde’s subtle yearning but also sounds primed to soundtrack thousands of crestfallen TikTok clips. “Close to You” is going to make noise, and I, for one, can’t wait to see Abrams blow it out on tour.
Andrew Unterberger: “Close to You” is definitely the frontrunner right now, but I heard “Risk” on the radio over the weekend and it felt like a better fit than I would’ve expected. Would probably still bet the former if I had to — and it certainly has a good lead to start — but I could definitely see a world where the latter has the longer tail.
5. Make a prediction: How many total weeks will The Tortured Poets Department spend at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 before ceding the top spot for good?
Rania Aniftos: Let’s say 20! Why not beat Morgan Wallen?
Katie Atkinson: Well, I wish we knew when, exactly, Zach Bryan’s next album is coming out. According to his Instagram, The Great American Bar Scene is coming out July 4th, but it’s unclear what time of day. And since Independence Day is a Thursday, if he releases it during the day, he would only have 24 hours of tracking in this chart week if it comes out early, or he could have a full week on our charts if it came out at midnight into Friday. He’s Taylor’s strongest competition, so I’m going to guess that his first full week will beat hers – meaning she would have 11 straight weeks atop the Billboard 200. But I think she’ll have *at least* one more week left in the tank after that too, with a potential Anthology vinyl release waiting in the wings. So my prediction is 12 weeks at No. 1 overall, surpassing the 11-week runs of the original 1989 and Fearless.
Hannah Dailey: It would be easier to predict if another comparable star was planning to release an album soon, but the front half of the year was so loaded that the second half is kind of a question mark. With that in mind, I’ll give her an even, optimistic 20 weeks. She may be looking to beat Morgan Wallen’s 2020s record, and it definitely seems like it’s in reach for her right now.
Jason Lipshutz: Without a ton of heavy competition in the coming weeks and six-figure equivalent album units months after its release, I could see Department ruling the roost for quite some time. Let’s go with 15 weeks before all is said and done.
Andrew Unterberger: My instinct is 16 or 17, but I feel like if Taylor sees herself being within arm’s reach of 20, she’s not gonna let that opportunity go by. So yeah, let’s say she takes advantage of a couple slow weeks towards the end of the calendar to get to an even 20 weeks this time — and maybe tries to match her second-favorite-number next time out.
If you needed further confirmation of Sabrina Carpenter‘s star status in 2024, this week’s Billboard Hot 100 (dated June 29) offers pretty incontrovertible evidence: She occupies two of the Hot 100’s top five spots this week by her lonesome, while also claiming the chart’s apex for the first time.
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“Please Please Please,” Carpenter’s latest single — which debuted behind only Post Malone and Morgan Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” at No. 2 on the Hot 100 last week — climbs that final spot to No. 1 this week. Meanwhile, its predecessor “Espresso” is still lingering around the top five, sliding from No. 3 to No. 4. Both songs are expected to be on Carpenter’s upcoming Short n’ Sweet LP, now one of the most-anticipated pop albums of the year.
What does it mean for Carpenter that “Please Please Please” became her first No. 1? And what can other pop aspirants learn from her phenomenal 2024 success? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. This week, Sabrina Carpenter scores her first Hot 100 No. 1 with “Please Please Please,” while its predecessor “Espresso” remains in the top five on the chart. Does this feel like a particularly notable coronation moment to you for Sabrina, or is her stardom already practically old news at this point?
Christopher Claxton: I think this is a particularly notable moment for Sabrina. She’s already a star, we know that, but it’s pretty surprising that none of her tracks have reached No. 1 on the Hot 100 until now. In all honesty, I expected “Feather” to get to No. 1 or at least the top 5. “Feather” did go No. 1 on Billboard‘s Pop Airplay chart, but it’s different when you have a No. 1 on the multimeric Billboard Hot 100. Ultimately, I think she’s finally getting the airtime her tracks deserve.
Lyndsey Havens: The thing that I’m loving about Sabrina’s success right now is that there has been a sustained string of notable coronation moments over the past few months – and all the while, she’s not only managing to repeatedly top herself but also ensure no bit becomes too stale. It was just this March that “Feather” was Sabrina’s biggest hit to date, and that followed “Nonsense,” which felt like that would be her biggest hit. Then came “Espresso,” and it felt like that would surely be her biggest hit, and now here we are with “Please.” To me, this kind of momentum is increasingly rare – and entirely deserved. But now that “Please” has indeed become her biggest song to date, scoring Sabrina her first Hot 100 No. 1, I’m curious to see what could happen next. Where do you go when you’re already at the top?
Jason Lipshutz: “Espresso” opened the floodgates for Sabrina Carpenter as an A-list pop artist, but one could have argued that she was still a one-smash wonder, as she scored her first top 20 hit with an undeniable refrain. The ascent of “Please Please Please” erases any doubt that Carpenter is among pop’s upper tier, though — especially considering that it climbed higher than “Espresso,” with both a less immediate hook and more subtle approach. Carpenter was already a star prior to “Please Please Please,” but her first Hot 100 chart-topper ensures that her stardom will transcend her breakthrough hit.
Andrew Unterberger: The Coachella and Governor’s Ball gigs she played after the respective releases of “Espresso” and “Please Please Please” felt like the coronation moments to me. But this is kind of an “If you don’t know, now you know” moment for Carpenter’s burgeoning A-list status: In case the memes and live clips and streaming totals didn’t persuade you, there’s really just no arguing with having two of the top five songs (including the No. 1) on the Hot 100 during one of the most competitive moments in recent pop history. She’s a superstar.
Christine Werthman: Let’s go straight to the source, shall we? “MY FIRST #1 on the @billboard HOT 100!!!!!!! And espresso at #4,” Carpenter wrote on Instagram. “I’m very immensely grateful so i will surely always remember this day for the rest of my life!” Others might consider her a star already, but the No. 1 is the ultimate feather (also a great song) in her cap. This is absolutely a big moment for her.
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2. While “Espresso” put Carpenter at top 40’s forefront and generated a ton of Song of the Summer buzz, “Please Please Please” has already reached commercial heights in two weeks that “Espresso” has yet to reach in over two months. What is it about “Please” that allowed it to become her first song to get over the top on the Hot 100?
Christopher Claxton: Several factors contribute to the rapid success of Sabrina Carpenter’s “Please Please Please” compared to “Espresso.” For one, it’s catchy and relatable, thus able to resonate more with a broader audience. Carpenter also has a new group of fans after she finished supporting Taylor Swift on the Eras Tour. Her fanbase is not only more active in streaming and promoting her music due to the consistent success of her previous songs, but she also has a new set of supporters, contributing to the greater anticipation built around the song.
Additionally, Sabrina co-wrote “Please Please Please” with Jack Antonoff, who has worked on every Swift album since 2014. Bringing Taylor Swift supporters to her fanbase, along with a song written in a style that those fans enjoy, is a pretty reliable recipe for success. The sound and timing of the twangy pop song is another important factor: From Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” to Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song,” country music has been at popular music’s forefront lately.
Lyndsey Havens: Momentum. “Espresso” was like this perfect delectable appetizer that fed fans while also increasing the appetite for more – and “Please” is the whole meal. I do think part of its success needs to be credited to Jack Antonoff, who has such a way in the studio of creating addicting, fiendish melodies that beg repeating – like the glittering opening synths that arrive with a bit of unexpected twang and the little swish and hand claps that occur in between the first and second parts of the chorus. But even more so than the production elements that shine is Sabrina’s delivery, especially on a viral one-liner like, “I beg you, don’t embarrass me motherf–ker.”
Jason Lipshutz: A combination of three things: newfound interest in Carpenter’s music post-“Espresso,” which has elevated her all the way to arena headliner level already; the pedigree of “Please Please Please,” complete with Jack Antonoff and Amy Allen studio credits and a flashy music video co-starring Carpenter’s romantic partner, Barry Keoghan; and the quality of the song itself, which hoists up Carpenter’s wry sense of humor and whisper-pop bluntness within a shimmery production that flirts with country balladry. It’s a singular song that arrived at the right time, and was presented in a compelling way.
Andrew Unterberger: “Momentum” about sums it up. “Please Please Please” is a fundamentally weird song, shifting keys and modes and tones and even genres throughout its three minutes — it’s fun and it’s compelling and it’s cool but if it wasn’t released by Sabrina Carpenter at this particular moment in time it seems unlikely to me that it would’ve been a big hit. But because Carpenter has pushed all the right buttons for years now and built her audience the right way, they’re more than willing to follow her down some windier paths now. And so a twisty country-pop hybrid like “Please Please Please” can outchart even a no-doubt smash like “Espresso,”” because her fans trusted that it would be worth sticking with, and were rewarded with a song that was sneakily even more addictive than its predecessor.
Christine Werthman: The comedic, bad-boy video with her real-life boyfriend, Barry Keoghan, garnered plenty of attention and has over 36 million views (“Espresso” has accrued nearly twice that many since its April release), but “Please Please Please” has a lot more going for it than just the visual. While “Espresso” was, fittingly, a spunky shot with a TikTok-able lyric (“I’m working late/’Cause I’m a singerrrr”), “Please,” though only a few seconds longer, makes it feel like Carpenter is taking her time.
The Jack Antonoff production adds a dreamier vibe than her other songs, marrying watery synthesizer and electric guitar with tender acoustic guitar and some irresistible background claps. Where “Espresso” maintains the same energy and tempo throughout, “Please” builds with a subtle key change and a sparkly outro, as well as a narrative that gives it that extra tension. While both play to Carpenter’s humorous strengths, “Please” is a more dynamic song overall.
3. When you think of this breakout period of Carpenter’s a decade from now, which of the two songs do you think will come to mind first?
Christopher Claxton: For me, I think it’ll be “Espresso.” It’s my favorite out of the two, and a song that I think can be played no matter the mood you’re in, since it’s feel-good music — whereas in “Please Please Please,” she’s begging a man not to break her heart, which is less all-purpose.
Lyndsey Havens: “Espresso.” Though “Please” has emerged as the bigger hit, you never forget your first, as they say. Plus, the “I’m working late, ’cause I’m a singer,” line has permeated into popular culture — and clever quips like that can often stick around well beyond the lifespan of the song itself.
Jason Lipshutz: “Espresso” still — I love “Please Please Please,” but Carpenter’s emergence came from a summer-defining powerhouse, full of bubbly personality and quotable lyrics. Maybe “Please Please Please” will stand strong at No. 1 for multiple weeks as “Espresso” slips down the chart, but I think it’s more likely that “Espresso” hangs around the top 10 for multiple extra months, and becomes one of the biggest hits of 2024, even if it never musters its way up to the chart’s very peak. And when we look back at this time many years from now, we’ll be thinking about “that’s that me espresso” and “I’m working late/ ‘cuz I’m a singerrrrr.”
Andrew Unterberger: For all her many great songs already — and likely many more to come — “Espresso” will always be the one that put her on that higher pop plane. It’s not a perfect comparison, but I think of the two songs as somewhat analogous to Ariana Grande’s “Thank U, Next” and “7 Rings” duo; the latter ended up the bigger chart hit, but the former was the enduring moment.
Christine Werthman: I will forever be entertained by the line “Heartbreak is one thing, my ego’s another/I beg you don’t embarrass me, motherf–ker.” Flawless. Also, as I have said to some of my colleagues, that triplet “embarrass” makes it even more interesting and sometimes hard to sing! I vote “Please.”
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4. As someone who’s made practically every right move to build her status from pop fan favorite to unequivocal superstar over the past two years, is there one particular move or strategy of Carpenter’s that you think other artists and their teams can learn from?
Christopher Claxton: One notable strategy that has contributed to Sabrina Carpenter’s rise to stardom is her consistent and authentic engagement with fans on social media. She uses platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter, actively sharing behind-the-scenes content, personal stories, and interacting with fans through Q&A sessions. This approach has helped her build a strong, loyal fanbase that feels personally connected to her journey. Other artists can learn from this by prioritizing genuine interactions with their audience to foster increased support and loyalty.
Lyndsey Havens: Persistence – and kindness. Over the years, the two things that I think stand out most about Sabrina as an artist and businesswoman is that she has remained incredibly driven and incredibly humble. She’s had so many nearly-there moments tracing back to her start with Disney to signing with Island to entering into the public discourse for one thing or another, but all the while she kept her head down and kept working. That, to me, is the most admirable and applicable thing of all.
Jason Lipshutz: Over the course of multiple albums, a label switch, singles that didn’t take off and tours that kept getting bigger, Carpenter kept betting on her eccentricities — the quirks that made her songs, style and stage presence unique, from the self-deprecating lyrical passages on Emails I Can’t Send to her tongue-in-cheek merch to the personalized “Nonsense” outros on tour. Carpenter built a fan base by being herself, and that base was ready to stream and support once she landed on a single, “Espresso,” that was primed for a true mainstream moment. If I were an aspiring artist watching Carpenter’s ascent, I would study the way she amplified what makes her special, unflaggingly, over multiple years and projects.
Andrew Unterberger: Never underestimate the value of a good running bit — especially when you’re really winning to commit to it. The evolving “Nonsense” outros were immeasurably helpful in establishing Carpenter as a pop star worth paying attention to, because they were always good and clever and gave you a reason to keep an eye on any major gig she was playing. Her poking fun of her own miniature size (down to the title of her upcoming album) is another good one, one that makes her relatable and human without actually being too embarrassing or explicitly unglamorous. The songs are the most important thing, of course, but a little reliable and identifiable personality always goes a long way.
Christine Werthman: Take your time. Carpenter released four albums between 2015 and 2019, and then took three years before dropping emails i can’t send in 2022. The jump between Singular: Act II and emails is significant, and it shows that she and her team were willing to let her take the time to establish her cheeky style and playful pop sound.
5. Make one bold prediction about Carpenter’s upcoming album Short n’ Sweet. (It can be about its commercial performance, a special guest/collaborator, a song subject/theme/sound, anything.)
Christopher Claxton: Based on the way she’s growing as an artist and her popularity in streams, I think at least one more of her songs from ‘Short n’ Sweet’ will be in the top 10. I also think we’ll get a lot more songs that are sonically similar to “Please Please Please.”
Lyndsey Havens: At this point, this is practically a decaf prediction, but the album will debut at No. 1 – and stay put there for a bit.
Jason Lipshutz: Based on “My ‘give a f–ks’ are on vacation” and “I beg you, don’t embarrass me, motherf–ker,” I guarantee that we are in for some SPECTACULAR swearing!
Andrew Unterberger: She works with Max Martin for the first time on one of the singles, and it surprises absolutely no one by zooming right to No. 1 on the Hot 100.
Christine Werthman: Taylor will pop in. Maybe.
It’s a good week for pop fans on the Billboard 200 albums chart. Charli XCX and Chappell Roan, two of the most acclaimed pop artists of 2024, are both enjoying breakthrough moments on the listing, with their respective most recent albums Brat and The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.
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In Charli’s case, Brat is the week’s biggest debut, bowing at No. 3 on the 200 — her first appearance in the chart’s top five — with 82,000 first-week units, according to Luminate. Roan, on the other hand, completes a 12-week climb to the top 10 this week, moving 12-9 with her 2023 debut on the strength of an increased profile on social media and streaming (and a recent breakout crossover hit in “Good Luck, Babe!,” which does not appear on the album).
Which of the two artists is having the bigger moment right now? And what, if anything, does it mean that they’re both doing so well at the same time? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. This week, Charli XCX’s Brat debuts at No. 3 on the Billboard 200, while Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess climbs to No. 10 — the former’s first top five album and the latter’s first top 10. Which of the two firsts do you think means more for their respective artists?
Rania Aniftos: That’s tough, because this is so huge for both of them. On one hand, Charli’s been in the game for years, and she’s been so respected in the music industry and beyond that it’s surprising it’s taken this long for her to get the mainstream recognition she deserves. For someone more up-and-coming like Chappell, who is also a queer artist in the space, a top 10 win feels like a particularly special glimpse into the future of pop.
Hannah Dailey: I’d lean more toward Chappell, as she’s been waiting so, so long for this moment. She was dropped from her label in 2020 and still didn’t give up. It’s got to feel extra sweet to see your project reach such heights four years later.
Stephen Daw: It’s a pretty close call, but I’m going with Chappell for this one. It is exceedingly rare in 2024 for an album to enter the top 10 of the chart for the first time nine months (!!) after its release, especially without the release of any special editions of the LP. Yet the word-of-mouth surrounding Roan has been working overtime, and her album has been slowly gaining momentum with each passing week. Charli’s top five debut is a big deal, no doubt; but Chappell’s rise feels like a game changer.
Kyle Denis: While Charli is likely ecstatic to finally achieve this level of pop success on her own terms with her true sound, this moment means more for Chappell. A year ago, virtually nobody was talking about Chappell Roan, now she’s packing out festivals and seeing nine-month-old music surge up the charts. After getting dropped by Atlantic just three years ago, this is the kind of win that truly makes the journey feel worth it.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll swerve a little here and say Charli XCX. She had something of a love-hate relationship with mainstream success a decade ago, but she’s seemed increasingly frustrated about mostly being denied access to pop’s inner circle in the decade since. I can only imagine how validating it must feel for her to once again be at the center of everything in the past week and a half — especially because she did it with an album that basically sounds like the most Charli XCX album of her career, not one with any obvious areas of major compromise.
2. Crash first brought Charli to the top 10 two years ago, but Brat feels like a pretty significant step up for her even from that success. What do you think is the primary reason this album is such a mainstream breakthrough for her?
Rania Aniftos: Both the songs and the marketing surrounding the project are reminiscent of the early 2000s, which Gen-Z missed out on but really, really wants to experience. Charli feels like the Myspace star of modern times, and makes the next generation of music listeners feel like they’re logging into AIM in 2006 and setting their profile status to a lyric from Brat. It’s just so cool in every way, and the album dropped at the perfect time within Internet culture.
Hannah Dailey: The album had such great branding – or lack thereof, really. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more memes about an album coming out than during Brat’s release week. Charli really knew what she was doing with the aggressively simple cover; it got people talking and forced everyone to associate anything lime green with her new music.
Stephen Daw: The thing that Charli XCX’s fans have pointed out (in most cases, correctly) for years is that she is consistently ahead of her time. But Brat came at a moment when mainstream pop music is finally embracing more of the crunchy alt-pop sounds she’s been swimming in for the last decade, while Charli’s own cult of personality has grown to exponential proportions. It didn’t feel like she was chasing a trend, but rather that the trends had finally caught up to her — and it certainly helps that Brat is simply the best Charli’s music has ever sounded.
Kyle Denis: The branding for Brat was may more effective than Crash’s. From the neon green album cover to the slightly burry typography, everyone wanted their own spin on the Brat artwork. Brat is also a more authentic representation of Charli’s sound; Crash found her satirizing mainstream pop and her place in it, while Brat finds her finally achieving peace with her position and purpose in the pop ecosystem. It also helps that other pop stars’ cheap facsimiles of her aesthetic are inadvertently reminding the masses of the singularity of Charli’s genius.
Andrew Unterberger: Brat just kinda nailed it — with the promo, with the branding, with the videos, with everything and most importantly, with the music. I don’t know if I’d say it’s her strongest set of songs, but it’s both her most coherent and her most satisfying, and it’s certainly on its way to being her best-reviewed. It’s just a fun album to have in your (and everyone else’s) life: the memes about the album art, the way its many brain-sticking lyrics keep popping up, the sheer joy everyone seems to associate with it. It’s a really enjoyable pop moment.
3. Meanwhile, Chappell Roan’s momentum for Midwest Princess has been growing for months now. What do you think was the biggest factor in finally putting her over the top as a crossover pop star?
Rania Aniftos: Her live shows. Her songs have always been top tier, but seeing just how creative she is when it comes to stage presence, style and makeup all while delivering show-stopping vocals, I think that made people truly realize that she’s a pop force to be reckoned with.
Hannah Dailey: I think her run of concerts and festival shows this year is what really made people start paying attention. There’s something baked into Midwest Princess that makes it an entirely different experience when heard live, from the stunning drag looks she wears onstage to the audience involvement throughout (the “HOT TO GO!” choreography, collectively screaming the spoken moments in songs like “Femininomenon,” etc.). I bet her recent performances are what made the album finally click for a lot of people.
Stephen Daw: Roan was already a fast-rising star before 2024 started — Midwest Princess ranked high on multiple year-end album lists in 2023, and her fan base was rapidly expanding. But I think two things happened at exactly the right time for the singer: She put out one of the best songs of her career (“Good Luck, Babe!”), and then embarked on a near-constant tour schedule throughout the spring and summer of 2024, both as a headliner and an opener. Combining those two things gave fans a new track to rally around while also introducing her to a sea of new devotees, whether they were at Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts Tour or at one of the many festivals she played this summer. Along with all of the buzz she’d already generated since 2020, and it felt inevitable that Roan would become the name on everyone’s lips this year.
Kyle Denis: Definitely her opening slot on Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts World Tour. Chappell’s music translates incredibly well in live settings and her aesthetic truly crystallizes during her campy live performances. Getting to properly showcase the breadth of her artistic vision in sold-out arenas leading right into festival season was the perfect momentum catalyst for her crossover moment. The music, performance ability and style were always there, she just needed a platform.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll second that it’s the coinciding of her most high-profile live gigs with her most accessible and undeniable pop single to date. Her supporting run alongside Olivia Rodrigo and her early-spring festival gigs opened the door for her, and “Good Luck, Babe!” pulled her through it. Now it seems like she’s gonna be here for a good long while.
4. Between the recent success for Chappell, Charli, and even Tinashe (with “Nasty” climbing the Hot 100), it seems like it’s been an unusually successful month or so for critically acclaimed artists with devoted pop fanbases whose chart performance hasn’t always matched their artistic reputations. Do you think it’s meaningful of anything for them to all be flourishing like this at once, or is it just a fluke of timing?
Rania Aniftos: I hope it’s meaningful. The charts for the past few years have generally been a cycle of the same superstars at the summit. While people like Taylor Swift, Drake and Ariana Grande are icons for a reason, it’s nice when people realize there’s more out there in the pop world. I have a feeling people like Charli, Tinashe, Chappell, Reneé Rapp and even Sabrina Carpenter will make people more open to the vast pop landscape that exists.
Hannah Dailey: As the question says, these artists have long had devoted fanbases already. But when it comes to the general public now tuning in for the first time, I think people have been craving something different for a while. Chappell, Charli and Tinashe are each their own singular brand of pop star and have given people something fresh to latch onto. I also think people are starting to outgrow the folksy singer-songwritery vibe that’s been popular the past couple of years, and are ready to embrace dance/pop music again.
Stephen Daw: I don’t think it’s a fluke — even Sabrina Carpenter, inarguably the breakout superstar of 2024, has been making music for nearly a decade and is just now finding massive mainstream success. In a music industry ecosystem where it’s become harder for new pop singers to break big, it feels like a natural next step for listeners to look back at established performers with intact fan bases and say, “Wait … what about them?”
Kyle Denis: I think what we’re seeing right now is a direct result of how social media and streaming algorithms have fractured our pre-existing monoculture into infinite silos. We’re no longer in the era of big tentpole pop stars sucking all the air out of the room or top 40 radio dictating who can and cannot be a star. The recent successes of Chappell, Charli and Tinashe speak to the power of building up and nurturing a core cult fanbase while continuing to hone your sound and aesthetic regardless of what the dominant mainstream sound may be. Eventually, the pendulum will swing in your direction, you just need to be prepared when it does.
Andrew Unterberger: It does feel like there’s a renewed appetite for that sort of dead-center pop we enjoyed at the turn of the 2010s — when Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Rihanna, Britney Spears and the artist then known as Ke$ha ruled the world — but with more of an auteurist bent to it. It’s a good time for the forward-thinking, heavily individualistic pop artists who perhaps should have flourished more than they did in the intervening years to finally get their propers.
5. Who among the Should-Be-Bigger pop set would you like to see being up next for a moment like this?
Rania Aniftos: Troye Sivan! With songs like “Rush” and “Got Me Started”? It’s a no brainer.
Hannah Dailey: Gracie Abrams! She’s already closing in on the mark, she just needs one last push that could very well come from her new album Secret of Us and Taylor Swift’s seal of approval.
Stephen Daw: Rina Sawayama has consistently put out fascinating, boundary-pushing pop music for the last few years — if anybody deserves a chart-based breakthrough, it’s her.
Kyle Denis: Yes, she had a movie hit No. 1 at the box office this year, but I’m beyond ready for Reneé Rapp to have a true breakout hit single in the near future.
Andrew Unterberger: Would love nothing more than to see U.K. artist Rachel Chinouriri’s brilliant A Devastating Turn of Events album follow Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess‘ slow-but-steady climb up the 200.
While Eminem has never experienced a major decline in popularity in the 25 years since his “My Name Is” breakthrough at the turn of the century, his new single “Houdini” is reminding people just how big he remains after a quarter century.
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The new single, Em’s first unaccompanied solo release since 2020 and the expected lead single off his upcoming The Death of Slim Shady LP, sees the rapper reviving his “Without Me”-era personality, down to the “Guess who’s back, back again” intro and the superhero getup in its music video. “Houdini” has also now matched the chart peak of that 2002 classic, debuting at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week (dated June 15).
How did “Houdini” score such a big bow? And will Eminem be able to keep up the momentum from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. “Houdini” debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, breezing through a loaded top 10 giving Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s “I Had Some Help” all it could handle for No. 1. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you that Eminem is still able to manage this kind of bow in 2024?
Katie Atkinson: 4. We can’t be that surprised when “Godzilla” with Juice WRLD debuted in the top 10 only in 2020. And the fact that Em is recalling his most popular early days in all the marketing for his new music – from the cheeky Unsolved Mysteries promo to the title of the album itself – means generations of fans who have been along for at least part of his 25-year career feel invested in giving it a curiosity listen (or curiosity watch, in the case of the throwback music video) at minimum. Really, Eminem never went anywhere.
Anna Chan: 1: Not surprised whatsoever – I’m only surprised that he didn’t debut at No. 1. (Marshall was robbed!!!) Of course Em was going to have a massive debut upon his return. Not only is he the Rap God, though he may have laid low in terms of music in the last few years, he’s remained relevant in pop culture, whether it was rooting for his Detroit Lions to make the Super Bowl, partnering with Fortnite, making surprise SNL cameos, to serving up Mom’s Spaghetti and other opportunities. Plus, both the song and music video reflect the classic Em days, so “Houdini” is a welcome return for many a longtime fan.
Kyle Denis: Probably around a 5? Eminem’s always been one for lofty debuts, and there was clear anticipation for “Houdini” thanks to its pre-release campaign. When you couple that with a questionable bar about one of culture’s hottest current female rappers, a No. 2 isn’t terribly surprising.
Angel Diaz: My number is 8 and my mind is officially blown. I can’t believe that record performed that well. All I saw were jokes about how washed up he is on my Twitter timeline. Color me impressed.
Andrew Unterberger: I’d say a 7. Yes, “Godzilla” had a lofty debut, but that was nearly a half-decade ago at this point, and was heavily boosted by its posthumous Juice WRLD hook. I thought this bow would be closer to “Walk on Water” (No. 14) territory for Eminem. I was wrong!
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2. Eminem explicitly harkens back to his “Without Me” era both in the “Houdini” song and the video. Does the return-to-classic-form still feel fresh to you, or is it starting to sour?
Katie Atkinson: This feels like a good time to admit that I’m from Michigan. I have the softest soft spot for my fellow Michiganian Eminem and always have, which probably makes me quicker to defend or praise him, even when I should know better. Which is to say, I kind of love all this nostalgia. I wouldn’t say it “feels fresh,” but I think a lot of the things that people are calling out about “Houdini,” from the offensive lyrics to the cheesy sample, are Slim Shady hallmarks that are designed to press these exact buttons. This album is called The Death of Slim Shady, right? So Em is in the process of killing off this purposely annoying alter ego. Shouldn’t we wait to hear the whole thing before casting judgment on the intro single that sounds exactly like at least three other Eminem lead singles over the decades? (Now if the whole album sounds like this, I’ll take back everything I just wrote.)
Anna Chan: Fresh smesh. Nostalgia works for a reason, but in this case in particular, the goofy Em is back (only to be killed in the music to come?) to entertain, and I’m here for it. Call me old, IDGAF. Give me more RapBoy!
Kyle Denis: It’s been sour. He’s referencing The Eminem Show (2002) on a song that’s the lead single for an album whose title references The Slim Shady LP (1999) which will arrive just over a decade after The Marshall Mathers LP2 (2013) – which, in turn, references his own Marshall Mathers LP (2000). It’s tired. You can’t keep heralding a return-to-classic-form when the new material isn’t up to par. The constant self-references feel more like a crutch than a source of genuine inspiration.
Angel Diaz: I hated the song but warmed up to it after watching the video. I wouldn’t say it was “fresh” but there was something nostalgic about the video, I guess. I will probably never listen to it again after this exercise, though. That’s how Em’s silly stuff has been for me over the course of his career. “My Name Is” is the only one of those I find myself going back to.
Andrew Unterberger: About as fresh as mom’s spaghetti after being left on the radiator for a week.
3. Em also gets a good deal of help on “Houdini” via a melody lift and chorus interpolation from a song that got all the way to No. 1 on the Hot 100 42 years ago: Steve Miller Band’s “Abracadabra.” Is the lift more tired or inspired to you?
Katie Atkinson: Somewhere in between. “Abracadabra” is obviously a fitting sample, given the magical theme of “Houdini,” and it’s always been a catchy (albeit sorta grating) song. I think it very much works within the Slim Shady theme, because it has a sort of carnival-music sound that matches previous Em productions. What I would call tired is the atrocious rhyme scheme in the chorus. “Abracadabra” rhyming with “I’m ’bout to reach in my bag, bruh” and “Just like that and I’m back, bruh”? This is where my Michigan loyalty ends.
Anna Chan: My two cents: It’s … free. I mean, fine! The beat lends itself easily to a “Without Me” mashup and the magic theme, so no complaints here!
Kyle Denis: I’d say it’s inspired. Thanks to the sample, “Houdini” doesn’t really sound like anything else in mainstream rap right now, for better or for worse. Regardless, the way he and producer Luis Resto flipped the sample makes it sound more cartoonish than they probably intended.
Angel Diaz: I don’t like Carny Beat Eminem at all and didn’t realize the chorus and the beat are essentially the same. However, for the sake of the rap community I’m going to say it’s more wired than tired and inspired. The song is fun when matched with the video.
Andrew Unterberger: The melody lift is inspired, but the “Abra, abracadabra/ I’m ’bout to reach in my bag, bruh” chorus hook is downright comatose.
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4. What do you think is the biggest reason Eminem is still able to command this much interest and attention 25 years into his career — and do you see this lasting, or mostly being a one-week thing where interest in the song and his return will fade quickly afterwards?
Katie Atkinson: He’s a legend who has consistently stayed present in pop culture since his mainstream debut in 1999. He doesn’t feel dated because he just had a Hot 100 top five hit four years ago. No one is forcing him to tap into his early days; he seems to have an artistic reason/motivation for revisiting the alter ego that made him famous. This all adds up to a fun, throwback-y moment that anyone who has ever been invested in Eminem before would enjoy. I think the album rollout will be on our radar all summer, but as for “Houdini” itself? I could see it staying the upper half of the Hot 100 for at least month.
Anna Chan: Talent can withstand the ages, and Em is wildly talented – just ask Dre, Drake and Wiz Khalifa. (Don’t believe them? Check out Billboard’s very own 50 Greatest Rappers of All Time, in which Em lands in the top five.) But what’s more, he knows how to court controversy (and it’d be so empty without him). While he’s toned down significantly since the early Slim Shady days, he still knows how to push just the right buttons to get fandoms in an uproar (that “Houdini” lyric about Megan’s feat, anyone?) while also maintaining a sense of humor (see: the new single’s music video). So yes, Shady’s back with a No. 2 debut, and he ain’t going anywhere, obituary or no.
Kyle Denis: Obviously, Eminem is a very gifted rapper who has built an unwavering fan base over the past quarter century. He’s one of those artists that will always be able to garner considerable interest in new material because his track record (at least pre-2013) is so strong. Nonetheless, there’s also something to be said for the reach Eminem has in comparison to Black rappers. His whiteness allows him to reach and maintain a broader audience, some of whom don’t even really engage with hip-hop outside of Eminem and his music.
Angel Diaz: I think some of the controversial lines got people talking again and this song felt fresher than some of his latest lyrical miracle efforts. He’s also a legend and every white person’s favorite rapper. The latter part always helps when it comes to the charts.
Andrew Unterberger: Eminem never really fit that seamlessly into contemporary pop or hip-hop, so the fact that he sounds even more out of step with trends now doesn’t really hurt him much with his still-devoted fanbase. I don’t think the song is gonna hang in the top 10 for more than another week or two, but if radio picks up on it — he is still a big name, and the song is catchy — I doubt it’ll disappear from the chart altogether that quickly either.
5. Make one request of Eminem for his upcoming The Death of Slim Shady album. (Anything you think he should do or hope he doesn’t do on or with the album.)
Katie Atkinson: Slim Shady worked best when balanced with Em’s more thoughtful songs, like “Stan” or “Mockingbird.” If Slim is getting killed off, then I’m hoping for the jokey songs like “Houdini” to be paired with something a little deeper. …Or at least give me a new jam for my workout playlist – “Lose Yourself” and “Not Afraid” are still in heavy rotation, but I can always use more gritty inspiration.
Anna Chan: There’s so much I’ve loved from his previous albums – witty word play, lyricism and humor, for starters! – that I’m sure will be present on TDOSS. So let’s hope for yet another amazing collab with a powerhouse female vocalist to bring some extra oomph, someone new, along the lines of a Rihanna (“The Monster”), Dido (“Stan”) or Beyonce (“Walk on Water”).
Kyle Denis: No more weird lines about “transgender cats.” Please. I’m begging.
Angel Diaz: Please let this be the only carnival beat. Wishful thinking, I know, but one can only dream. He was so good on Dre’s 2001 and 50’s Get Rich or Die Tryin’. I’m not sure why he doesn’t rap on harder beats more often.
Andrew Unterberger: If he’s calling this The Death of Slim Shady, then I just hope he gets all these callbacks, reheated beats and half-hearted attempts at controversy out of his system and tries something new and different next time around.
One of the biggest breakout stars of the 2020s has unquestionably been alt-country and Americana singer-songwriter Zach Bryan, who has grown from a word-of-mouth sensation into a chart-topping, arenas-and-stadiums-touring act over the past half-decade — while still maintaining a cult-fanbase-type audience.
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Following last year’s crowning moment of Bryan topping both the Billboard 200 and Billboard Hot 100 in the same week (with his self-titled album and its Kacey Musgraves-featuring lead single “I Remember Everything,” respectively), on May 24 he released the new single “Pink Skies.” This week, the harmonica-laced acoustic number — expected to appear on his upcoming new album — bows at No. 6 on the Hot 100, already the second-highest-charting single of his career, following “Everything.”
What does the debut mean for Bryan’s career? And does the song tell us anything about where Bryan may be headed? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. “Pink Skies” debuts at No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week – already Bryan’s second-highest-peaking hit to date, after last year’s No. 1-bowing Kacey Musgraves duet “I Remember Everything.” Is that debut higher, lower or about where you would’ve expected for it?
Eric Renner Brown: This placement tracks for me. Bryan is a top-tier star now, and he doesn’t have as much competition in his lane as major pop stars and rappers do in theirs. Plus, “Pink Skies” dropped on a release date without a huge pop album (like Billie Eilish’s the week before) to shoot numerous tracks onto the Hot 100 and crowd other singles out. As he continues to grow in popularity (because I don’t think he’s even close to his ceiling), I think we can expect more strong debuts like this from Bryan.
Kyle Denis: This is about right where I expected. Bryan has steadily grown into a streaming force over the past few years, so a top 10 debut isn’t necessarily surprising. Given the stiff competition in the top 5 right now, a No. 6 debut feels just right.
Melinda Newman: Higher. There’s always excitement for new music from Bryan (and a seemingly endlessly supply of new tunes coming from him — since May 2022, he’s released two studio albums, two EPs and a live album), but he doesn’t always come in so high. His duet with Maggie Rogers, which came out in 2023 before “I Remember Everything,” peaked at No. 42 on the Hot 100 — and that was after the red-hot success of “Something in the Orange.”
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a little higher — just because we’re in such a loaded moment for big pop hits that a No. 6 debut right now is maybe more like a No. 2 or No. 3 debut a year ago. Not that such a debut would be exactly shocking for Zach Bryan at this point either, but “Pink Skies” is a pretty melancholy and low-key song compared to Bryan’s biggest hits to date, so I think a Hot 100 debut in the 10s would’ve still been plenty respectable.
Christine Werthman: Definitely higher. “Pink Skies” is about a homecoming brought on by a funeral, and it encapsulates the perspectives of those lost and those left behind. It’s a buoyant, midtempo, acoustic song that packs a lot of feeling into three minutes without being weighed down. With such a universal theme — nothing is certain except death and taxes, as they say — perhaps it connected with hordes of listeners and offered a gentle alternative to the more amped-up summer songs.
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2. Is the song’s top 10 debut more about “Pink Skies” being a specifically good commercial fit for Bryan, or do you think he’s reached the star level where just about any new single of his is going to automatically debut in that region?
Eric Renner Brown: I mean this only positively: It sounds like a Zach Bryan song! Maybe the true heads hear something different in “Pink Skies” compared to his other hits. But for casual fans like myself, it’s more of what I’ve come to expect from Bryan: polished, well-produced folk-rock, delivered with a bit more passion and personality than others in his lane.
Kyle Denis: Probably a mixture of both. He’s reached that level of stardom where he’ll automatically get lofty debuts for new releases, but the song is also very strong. “Pink Skies” is in line with the kind of emotional, confessional mid-tempos that have brought him past commercial wins (“I Remember Everything”; “Something in the Orange”), but the heavy subject matter will probably kneecap how far this song can go now that the summer is here.
Melinda Newman: It’s still impressive for him. There is still a lot of growth to be had for Bryan in terms of artist discovery: His fans are extremely passionate and help drive the high debuts, but there are so many potential fans who still have no idea who he is or couldn’t name one of his songs. As those numbers increase, a top 10 debut for each new song may soon become automatic. But he’s not there yet.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s mostly about the timing and star power — the song is a pretty good commercial fit for Bryan, but it takes a few listens to totally succumb to its charms. (Then again, evidence suggests that “a few listens” is not too daunting a bar for audiences when it comes to Zach Bryan right now, so maybe that’s part and parcel with the song’s early success.)
Christine Werthman: This is still just Bryan’s third top 10 hit, so it’s not like everything he drops automatically races to the front of the class. I think it’s a good commercial fit for him as an artist with an eye for lyrical detail who can tease out the beautiful parts of a loss.
3. “Pink Skies” is presumed to likely be featured on Bryan’s upcoming album, apparently titled The Great American Bar Scene and due sometime soon. If that’s all true, do you think “Skies” tells us anything interesting about Bryan’s new work, or is it more a consolidation of established strengths?
Eric Renner Brown: It’s a consolidation of his strengths. I think he could mildly iterate his style for at least a couple more albums while continuing to enjoy (and expand on) his current success. Bryan’s fans aren’t looking for a reinvention – yet, at least – and when it comes to this style, he has plenty of great songs left in him. (That said, I do dig the Neil-Young-circa-Harvest harmonica here.)
Kyle Denis: As of right now, I’m not getting much of anything new or different from “Pink Skies.” If anything, his songwriter has gotten even sharper. “Pink Skies” is a gorgeous elegy, one that truly transports the listener to the funeral scene he conjures in his lyrics. In that way, “Pink Skies” does feel like it’s one part of a larger narrative – maybe the prelude? — that will unfold across his new LP.
Melinda Newman: Too early to tell, but the twist that he’s talking to someone who has died is an interesting turn. Bryan doesn’t shy away from deep emotions and heavy thoughts in his songs — so, without hearing more, it’s hard to tell if the new album is a progression or a concept album or more of the same high quality we’ve already been getting from Bryan. He clearly is not running out of things to say.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s Zach Bryan doing what he does best: vivid and relatable storytelling over heartstring-pulling melodies and dusty, unpolished instrumentation. No great leap forward here, but still one of the best songs on the Hot 100 this week.
Christine Werthman: “Pink Skies” fits into Bryan’s portfolio of somber, detailed songs that prove that when he sang, “I remember everything,” he wasn’t kidding. The difference is the lighter touch he takes with “Pink Skies,” closer to “Holy Roller” than “East Side of Sorrow.” He’s not reinventing himself, but if “Pink Skies” is an indicator, maybe we will see a softer side of Bryan, particularly in his instrumentation, on his next album.
4. Bryan is at the stage of his stardom right now where he feels more like the world’s biggest cult artist than a traditional pop superstar. Do you think he has anything to gain by trying to cross over to become more of the latter, or if you were him would you focus more on not fixing what isn’t broken?
Eric Renner Brown: Bryan isn’t a pop superstar only insofar as he doesn’t make capital-P pop music and hasn’t yet achieved the celebrity of many of his Hot 100 peers. But otherwise, he’s had three top 10 hits on the Hot 100 in less than two years and sells out multiple arena dates in many markets – he’s a superstar. (As a Phish fan – and in solidarity with superfans of enduring arena-level bands like Slipknot and Tool – I think there are acts who can more credibly be described as “the world’s biggest cult artist.”) If I was Bryan, I would indeed heed the cliché: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Kyle Denis: He should keep doing what he’s doing and not even look at traditional pop superstardom. If his X outburst over “Pink Skies” allegedly being sent to top 40 radio is anything to go by, I don’t think he would particularly enjoy that space anyways. With sold out arenas, multiplatinum singles, Grammy wins and Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hits, he’s already secured the most sought-after hallmarks of pop stardom without explicitly courting it, so why fix what isn’t broken?
Melinda Newman: Bryan is doing just fine doing it his way. He doesn’t appear on television — other than Yellowstone, he’s done no late night or morning show performances. Other than the New York Times and Joe Rogan, he hasn’t done interviews. He keeps it to the music, the live shows and his direct interaction with his fans via social media. He’s already selling out arenas and stadiums. I’m not sure how much bigger it could get for him, but he doesn’t need any of the trappings and the headaches that come with trying to be a traditional pop superstar. “Pink Skies” debuted so high because of its 31.6 million U.S. streams, according to Luminate; his radio reach was relatively small, so it’s his direct line to his fans that is propelling him, not the gatekeepers deciding they are going to let him in.
Andrew Unterberger: There’s no real need for a Zach Bryan pop crossover, of course — but selfishly, I’d still like to see him try for one at some point. To invoke an album that just so happens to be turning 40 today: Bruce Springsteen didn’t need to go mega-pop and release a Diamond-certified blockbuster with seven certified Hot 100 top 10 hits on it, either — but both his catalog and legacy are immeasurably richer for him doing so (not to mention his bottom line). Aren’t you the least bit curious to know what Zach Bryan’s Born in the U.S.A. might sound or feel like?
Christine Werthman: Bryan’s success is a testament to doing it his way. If that means staying in his current lane, cool. If it means mining for hits, doing more interviews and getting a taste of that pop life, go for it. Do what you want, man! That’s brought him to where he is, so he should keep following his instincts.
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5. What’s your favorite “Pink” jam from pop, rock or country history?
Eric Renner Brown: This prompt sent me down a rabbit hole of the surprisingly fertile category of “songs with ‘pink’ in their title.” Stiff competition, but as a lifelong Weezer fan, I have to go with “Pink Triangle” – which gets bonus points for appearing on an album with “Pink” in its title. (Runner-up: Nick Drake’s “Pink Moon,” from the album of the same name, which Bryan could kill a cover of.)
Kyle Denis: In terms of the rock-country space, I’ll go with “Pink Houses” by John Cougar Mellencamp. But I’m also very partial to Frank Ocean’s “Pink + White” and “Pink Matter” (with André 3000).
Melinda Newman: “Pink Cadillac” by Bruce Springsteen. Natalie Cole had the pop hit with the tune, taking her sassy, sleek cover version to No. 5 on the Hot 100 in 1988, but Springsteen’s version, which was a B-side to 1984’s “Dancing in the Dark,” stresses the carnal desire inherent in the song, making it a much sexier ride. In second place, Eric Church’s “Two Pink Lines,” which can be the result if you have a party in the back of that pink Cadillac.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say the Psychedelic Furs’ new wave classic “Pretty in Pink” — and I’ll infuriate whatever new wave purists happen to be reading this column about 2024’s biggest Americana artist by admitting that I actually prefer the sax-laden ’86 re-recording from the Brat Pack movie of the same name.
Christine Werthman: “Pink Triangle” from Weezer’s Pinkerton. Or “Pynk” from Janelle Monae feat. Grimes. Wait, no. Chappell Roan’s “Pink Pony Club.” Wow, so many good pink songs. Happy Pride, everyone!