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No story in music this year has been more all-consuming than the ongoing beef between superstar rappers Drake and Kendrick Lamar (and a whole lot of supporting characters) — and this week, on the chart dated May 18, the Billboard Hot 100 properly reflects the drama’s cultural dominance.
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Three songs from the two feuding artists hit the chart’s top 10 this week, led by Lamar’s No. 1-debuting “Not Like Us” and also including Kendrick Lamar’s “Euphoria” (No. 3) and Drake’s “Family Matters” (No. 7) — while a fourth, Lamar’s “Meet the Grahams,” bows just outside the region at No. 12. The entrance of “Not Like Us” has been particularly explosive, as the climactic diss cut tops the chart with just five full days of consumption to its credit for the tracking week (ending May 9), still amassing over 70 million official on-demand U.S. streams for the period, according to Luminate.
What contributed to “Not Like Us” being such a runaway hit? And what does its success mean for both its performer and its subject moving forward? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. “Not Like Us” posts historic streaming numbers on its way to a Hot 100 No. 1 debut — already Lamar’s second this year from this extended beef alone — while already burrowing its way deep into pop culture. Is this already the biggest diss track you can remember from your lifetime?
Kyle Denis: Easily. The only two that come relatively close are Pusha T’s “The Story of Adidon” and Remy Ma’s “Shether,” but the cultural imapct and legacy of those songs far outweigh their commercial success. I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention Drake’s own “Back to Back” — I fondly remember yelling, “Is that a world tour or your girl’s tour?” all summer ‘15.
Angel Diaz: The only other diss track with this kind of impact was Nas’ “Ether.” That was such a seismic shift in the game, the song’s title became a verb that’s still used 20-something years later. Mustard’s production and the chorus will stand the test of time. Expect to hear “they not like us” a bunch during the college football and basketball seasons.
Carl Lamarre: I’m old enough to have experienced Jay-Z vs. Nas and 50 Cent vs. Ja Rule in real time — but this particular feud has the advantage over those because of the advent of social media. Watching these records fall from the sky and instantly seeing real-time reactions amplified the pressure and momentum of this battle. Fans were huddling around this social media bonfire, clamoring for more, exchanging thoughts and conspiracies in such a short time — and it all climaxed with the ecstatic response to Kendrick’s death blow. Even in past beefs Drake had with Meek and Pusha, neither opponent was as big as Kung Fu Kenny, and certainly neither had a record as big as “Not Like Us.”
Jason Lipshutz: Quantitatively, probably! Diss tracks didn’t tend to top the Hot 100 prior to 2024, a.k.a. The Year of Beef Cuts, and “Not Like Us” starts with far bigger streams than Megan Thee Stallion’s “Hiss” or Future and Metro Boomin’s “Like That” (although time will tell whether “Not Like Us” can stick as long at No. 1 as Kendrick’s three-week chart-topping opening diss). In terms of its stature, however, we’ll need some time to see how “Not Like Us” endures as a standalone single, removed from the context of this Kendrick-Drake diss deluge. Maybe “Not Like Us” gets lumped into the multi-track back-and-forth historically, or maybe it will stand on its own as Lamar’s pop smash with the sharpest edges. Too early to tell for me, but signs point toward “Not Like Us” separating itself from the other recent Kendrick (and Drake) songs commercially.
Andrew Unterberger: Absolutely — that is, unless you expand beyond hip-hop and consider Olivia Rodrigo’s “Drivers License,” one of the only songs this decade (beef or no) to approximate Lamar’s breakaway momentum here. And honestly, even then, “Not Like Us” might still have the advantage.
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2. Obviously there had already been no shortage of memorable and massively consumed back and forth musical moments from this feud, dating back to the first chart-topping blast with “Like That” a month and a half ago. What about “Not Like Us,” either in its content or its timing, do you think was the biggest factor in it hitting an even-higher commercial level than this feud had previously reached?
Kyle Denis: If you’re looking for a perfect storm, “Not Like Us” is it. The timing of the drop was perfect. Kendrick was able to capture the zeitgeist before the “let’s move on” takes started pouring in, and he was also able to quickly build on the momentum of his other culture-shifting diss tracks. You couple that with Mustard’s infectious string-laden beat, a K.Dot cadence that leans more into his West Coast bag than most of his recent output, and a bevy of quotables that double as damning disses – you’ve got a winner.
I think the key difference with “Not Like Us” is that Kendrick made an anthem that people could rally around. Obviously, the West Coast was always going to eat this song up, but by using “Not Like Us” to draw an “us vs. them” line in the sand between Drake and his fans and the rest of hip-hop culture, Kendrick forced people to pick a side and stand tall in that decision. “Not Like Us” rejects ambivalence, either you’re on Kendrick’s side and what he stands for or you’re on the side deemed “certified pedophiles.” Of course, it also helped that Drake didn’t deliver a pop-facing, anthemic hit of his own, leaving room for Kendrick to swoop in and beat him at his own game.
Angel Diaz: The content is almost secondary as to why people enjoy the song. There are those who have prayed for Drake’s downfall and there are others who doubted Kendrick’s ability to make a certified banger. The Compton rapper managed both in this instance. He tripled down on Drake’s rumored age-gap dating habits and used a culturally traditional West Coast sound to further dissect his foe’s overall character and place in rap music. No one expected Lamar to drop something as high energy as “Not Like Us” after the very dark and dramatic “Meet the Grahams” a day earlier.
Carl Lamarre: Kendrick playing chess and using Drake’s strengths against him. K. Dot’s approach in this battle was slow and methodical, like a horror film, and “Not Like Us” was the shocking climax nobody saw coming. He made a West Coast anthem with a DJ Mustard-produced beat that wasn’t only memorable because of the witty catchphrases (“69 God” and “OV-Hoe”), but it placed him out of his element. This knockout blow showcased Kendrick’s proper Gemini side and why we can’t rule out the unexpected when dealing with him.
Jason Lipshutz: “Not Like Us” was released as both a knockout punch and celebration, capping off Kendrick’s speed-bag treatment of Drake’s reputation with his most immediate pop hook in years, a ton of quotable new takedowns and a springy club track courtesy of Mustard. If “Not Like Us” was released at the beginning or in the middle of the Kendrick-Drake back-and-forth, the song’s context changes — but Lamar positioned the track as a victory lap following “Like That,” “Euphoria,” “6:16 in LA” and “Meet the Grahams,” the majority of which were more academic in their personal eviscerations. So really, it was both content and timing that helped elevate “Not Like Us,” and eclipse Lamar’s other diss tracks on the charts.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s the beat and the hook. Lamar’s verses are also largely on point, but they were on “Meet the Grahams” and “Euphoria” too; what sets “Not Like Us” apart commercially is the same thing that initially put “Like That” over the top: It’s just an absolutely killer single by any measure. You could — and by now many doubt have — hear the song blaring out of a car window or in the background at a bar or even through supermarket speakers with no prior knowledge of the feud and think the same thing everyone else did the first time they heard it: “Wow this song rules.” Personally, I was sure from the first second that the strings entered in the intro that this was gonna be the biggest and longest-lasting song from this entire cultural moment.
3. A trio of other Drake-Kendrick Lamar songs from the feud also appear in this week’s top 15: Kendrick’s “Euphoria” (No. 3) and “Meet the Grahams” (No. 12) and Drake’s “Family Matters” (No. 7). Which of the three do you think will prove the most enduring beyond their first week of release and initial excitement over the back-and-forth?
Kyle Denis: I don’t think any of the three songs end up enduring hits, but I’ll give the edge to “Euphoria,” which already has a slew of lines going viral on TikTok and boasts a more radio-ready tempo than “Meet the Grahams.” In that vein, “Grahams” is probably too incisive of a track to become a legitimate hit song, not to mention there’s no hook and it’s the slowest of the three tracks. As for “Family Matters,” it’s a really great track, but I don’t really see a world in which the loser of the beef still squeezes a hit single out of it. Then again, if anyone can do that, it’s Drake.
Angel Diaz: “Family Matters” is the easier listen. Drake is good at that. But: I gave “Meet the Grahams” the car test over the weekend and it gave me chills. I almost wish Drake broke “Family Matters” up into three different songs. I’m not sure if I’ll go back to any of them on a regular basis and while the Toronto rapper’s song is a quality track, it just doesn’t hit the same after what transpired immediately after.
Carl Lamarre: Though “Meet the Grahams” was surgical and exuded Stephen King vibes, “Family Matters” is arguably Drake’s best record in years. From the beat switches to the myriad of flows he had on display, had that song dropped after “Grahams” or didn’t experience any disruption at its release, it could have given Drake “More Life” in this heavyweight match.
Jason Lipshutz: Probably “Euphoria,” which has shown that it has legs on streaming platforms beyond the initial shock of hearing a no-holds-barred six-minute-plus Drake takedown upon its release. Think of “Euphoria” as the yin to the “Not Like Us’” yang, the more stream-of-consciousness version of Lamar’s rap theatrics compared to his radio-ready side — which has also proven to cater to a sizable audience over the past decade. I’d guess that clubs will continue to play “Not Like Us,” while wordplay obsessives will continue to pore over every word of “Euphoria,” in the coming weeks and months.
Andrew Unterberger: Can I vote for “Meet the Grams,” the viral mashup of the beat from “Meet the Grahams” with the vocal from Pusha T’s own Drake-toppling classic “The Story of Adidon”? It feels impossibly right, and I’ve already listened to it more than either of the tracks it’s formed from.
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4. While Kendrick Lamar has already scored No. 1 songs and albums and been one of the consensus greatest rappers alive for over a decade already, this still feels like a new mainstream peak for him. What kind of impact, if any, do you see this recent success having on his career over the next few years?
Kyle Denis: I think that almost totally depends on the style of music he chooses to make. He’s done the pop collabs successfully, he has scores of crossover hip-hop hits, he’s done the big-budget movie soundtrack thing flawlessly – when he wants to meet the mainstream where it’s at, he always wins. Even when he forces the mainstream to meet him where he’s at, as he did with 2022’s Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers, he still pulls off Billboard Hot 100 top 10 hits, worldwide arena tours and robust streaming and pure sales numbers.
At the very least, these recent chart wins will likely line him up for a handsome streaming debut whenever he decides to drop a new LP. There’s also something to be said about this beef causing a generation of listeners who only experienced Mr. Morale in real time to go back and discover the Lamar albums they were too young to take in upon release.
Angel Diaz: Word on the street is that he’s dropping a project this year, so it all depends on if this next album delivers. Jay and Nas dropped The Blueprint and Stillmatic, respectively, during their legendary beef, and both albums are considered classics — with the former widely thought of as an all-timer. If Kendrick drops another classic, the Best Rapper Alive title won’t be leaving Compton for the foreseeable future.
Carl Lamarre: Eyes will be on both Kendrick and Drake, and for obvious reasons. For Kendrick, it’ll be interesting to see if he’ll return to his 2017 bag, where DAMN proved to be his colossal mainstream win, etching out “HUMBLE” — his last solo Hot 100 chart-topper before “Not Like Us” — and his highest opening-week numbers on the Billboard 200 with 603,000 album equivalent units. The bigger question will be: With the battle behind him, can he make records without uttering The Boy’s name and still garner as much interest and attention within his music?
Jason Lipshutz: It’s a great question, and it’s impossible to answer, considering how mercurial Kendrick has proven as a mainstream star over the course of his career. Could “Not Like Us” inspire a run of hard-edged pop singles that continues to flex his muscle on the charts and capture more of Drake’s territory? Will his next album completely eschew this beef, and follow the more insular streak of Mr. Morale? Maybe we simply don’t hear from Kendrick for multiple years after this, considering the extended break before that last album! Kendrick Lamar remains one of our most exciting superstars because of the inherent unpredictability of his artistry, so when prognosticating how this beef affects his future, the answer has to be: TBD.
Andrew Unterberger: I think his first-week ceiling should certainly be higher on his next full-length release than it would be otherwise following the commercially underwhelming (though by this point, fairly underrated) Mr. Morale. But whether he continues having smashes like this from here is entirely up to him; Kendrick has proven on numerous occasions throughout his run that he can produce crowd-pleasers when he wants, he’s just had different priorities a lot of the time. (Which, for the record, is also one of the reasons it hits so hard when he does give the people a proper banger or two.)
5. Meanwhile, Drake has taken perhaps the biggest blow of his career by finding himself the loser of the feud not just among hip-hop heads and tastemakers but among the general public — and on the charts specifically, where Drake rarely loses to anyone. What kind of lasting impact, if any, do you see this loss having on his commercial success moving forward?
Kyle Denis: I think Drake may have a bit of a commercial dip in the coming months, but that’s truly nothing a danceable summer hit or two can’t fix. The real blow for Drake here is where he stands culturally. It’s cool to dunk on Drizzy again. When the No. 1 song in the country is calling you and your affiliates pedophiles and bastardizing the name of your record label, it’s clear that your public perception has drastically shifted. How does Drake regain his cool factor without the cultural/sonic philandering he’s been criticized for throughout this beef? That’s for him to figure out and for us to evaluate when the time comes.
Angel Diaz: Fans have been turning on Drake since Views dropped in 2016. They’ve felt that he’s been in autopilot for far too long. Hopefully the turmoil he finds himself in today will motivate him to challenge himself. He did that with Honestly, Nevermind, but was criticized for not rapping enough and was goaded into releasing For All the Dogs by fans and pundits. I think he’ll be fine commercially in the long run, but this rap thing has never been just about sales. His image took a major blow culturally and that’s something I’m not sure he’ll ever be able to fix.
Carl Lamarre: Zero because soccer moms, teens, and college kids will continue to stream his music and buy his albums as long as he churns out “One Dance” and “Hotline Bling” caliber records. That fanbase was unaffected by Kendrick’s demolition derby and isn’t keen on Drake’s standing within The Culture. He’ll be OK if he can keep the mainstream American singing and dancing.
Jason Lipshutz: Very little, actually! Drake’s reputation has taken a massive hit, but if he drops a new proper single or album in the near future, I’d still expect No. 1 debuts across the board. Real hip-hop fans might look less favorably upon Drake after his skirmish, but he also maintains an enormous base of pop listeners, and remains a giant streaming presence; in spite of the narrative of Kendrick’s lyrical K.O., a slightly weakened Drake is still a superstar.
Andrew Unterberger: At the beginning, I thought there was no way this feud would have any lasting impact on Drake’s commercial fortunes — now I’m not so sure. I do think the answer here is, in many ways, still largely up to Drake and how well he responds to the outcome here. Ironically, the most valuable lesson he can take away from all this is one implied by Kendrick himself on “Euphoria”: It’s time to focus on Drake With the Melodies and not on Tough-Acting Drake. The latter’s been too compromised; the former will always be welcome.
As Taylor Swift rules the Billboard Hot 100 for a second frame with her Post Malone collab “Fortnight” — and before an onslaught of tracks resulting from the culture-dominating Kendrick Lamar/Drake feud likely swarms the top tier of the chart next week — a trio of newer hitmakers move into the chart’s top five.
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This week’s Hot 100 (dated May 11) features a debut from Virginia singer-rapper Tommy Richman at No. 2 (“Million Dollar Baby”), along with a rapidly rising breakout smash from country singer-songwriter Shaboozey at No. 3 (“A Bar Song (Tipsy)”) and the biggest crossover hit yet for burgeoning pop star Sabrina Carpenter at No. 4 (“Espresso”). Along with enduring top 10 hits from newly minted hitmakers Benson Boone (“Beautiful Things,” No. 5) and Teddy Swims (“Lose Control”), this week marks the highest concentration of first-timers in the chart’s top 10 since June 2022.
Which one is most likely to claim the top spot in the weeks to come? And is it meaningful to be getting so many big hits by newer artists at once? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Despite being each artist’s first visit to the chart’s top 10, within a month of their Hot 100 debuts, each of Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby,” Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” finds itself in this week’s top five. Which of the three hits has been most impressive to you with its rapid rise?
Rania Aniftos: Shaboozey! Black artists are slowly but surely staking their claim in country music and country-adjacent genres, and it’s been long overdue. I’m so glad Shaboozey had his time to shine on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, and has since been able to amplify his own career. I’m impressed by his skyrocketed success and excited to see where he goes from here!
Kyle Denis: Definitely Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby.” You can track both Shaboozey’s (two Queen Bey collabs + each of previous singles was bigger than the last) and Sabrina’s (Eras Tour opener who has recently solidified herself as a formidable presence on top 40 radio) success pretty easily. Outside of some significant underground motion, Tommy Richman’s name didn’t even exist in the zeitgeist last month – now he has the most-streamed song in the country this week with his very first Hot 100 entry.
Josh Glicksman: Shaboozey. Parlaying guest turns on a blockbuster album into solo chart success is a much more difficult task than he’s made it seem, and particularly so given that country music typically doesn’t have the immediate streaming power — save for a handful of marquee artists — as some of the other genres filling the top 10 of the Hot 100. Sure, the J-Kwon “Tipsy” interpolation gives “A Bar Song” a boost, but the latter is unquestionably a hit in its own right, avoiding the over-reliance on nostalgia that songs of a similar ilk have fallen victim to in the past year.
Jason Lipshutz: While Sabrina Carpenter has already enjoyed pop radio success prior to “Espresso” and Shaboozey’s profile grew significantly thanks to his multiple features on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” has seemingly come out of nowhere to thus far out-chart both of them. Yes, Brent Faiyaz has co-signed Richman and brought him on tour — but Faiyaz has yet to score a solo hit within the same stratosphere as “Million Dollar Baby,” which exploded on TikTok to such a degree that it debuted at No. 2 amidst stiff competition. We’ll see how durable of a hit “Million Dollar Baby” proves to be, but that start was breathtaking.
Andrew Unterberger: All three are undoubtedly impressive, but the real jaw-dropper to me here is Richman. To drop a new single at very possibly the most crowded moment for major new releases we’ve had so far this decade and not only make a major impression, but immediately zoom to the very head of the class — outside of the reigning valedictorian, anyway — is simply stunning for any artist, especially one with so little established chart history.
2. All three songs figure to be contenders for the top spot in the weeks to come. If you had to bet on one of them to eventually get there — or to be the first to get there, if you think multiple will — which would you opt for?
Rania Aniftos: I have to say “Espresso,” because I know I’m not the only one who can’t get that damn “I’m working late/ ‘Cause I’m a singerrrrrrr” line out of their head. It’s such a catchy song and it’s everywhere!
Kyle Denis: Given that just three 2024 releases have spent more than a single week atop the Hot 100, I’m willing to wager that all three songs will get there – but they likely won’t enjoy very long stays at the pole position. Who’s getting there first? Probably “Million Dollar Baby,” it’s outpacing the other two songs on most major U.S. streaming platforms – and it feels like that kind of hit that won’t necessarily need radio to carry it.
Josh Glicksman: “Espresso.” Its nu-disco production is tailor-made for sunny days and open windows and will garner endless airplay at pop radio. I expect both “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Million Dollar Baby” to hang around for extended stays as well — and could very well see the former getting to No. 1 as well at some point — but it’s hard to bet against the bona fide pop hit, especially when it’s such an instantly obvious song of the summer contender. Did I already mention how much you’re going to hear it on the radio?
Jason Lipshutz: “Espresso,” since it sounds like one of the sturdiest pop hits of the year, it’s already a top 5 hit, and its radio run hasn’t even kicked off in earnest yet. Songs like “Nonsense” and “Feather” proved Sabrina Carpenter’s top 40 appeal, and “Espresso” is already a bigger hit than both of those previous singles; meanwhile, Carpenter is a more of a prominent star than she’s ever been, and she’s poured us a three-minute shot of bliss in time for summer. The top of the Hot 100 is crowded right now, but I think that “Espresso” will spend multiple weeks at No. 1 in the June/July range.
Andrew Unterberger: I would say “Million Dollar Baby,” since its initial velocity has been so impressive and it’s already so close to the top spot. But the fact of the matter is that it’s likely going to get stuck behind an onslaught of Kendrick Lamar for at least the next week or two, after which another new song (maybe something from the new Billie Eilish album due friday after next?) very well may have lapped it momentum-wise. So I’ll bet on the long game with “Espresso,” as the song’s warm-weather vibes and Carpenter’s recently established history on the airwaves all but guarantees it ruling radio all summer — meaning it’ll always be in range of the Hot 100’s top spot, and able to seize it with a new remix or video or other viral moment (or if we ever just get another slow chart week again).
3. Beyond these already-minted hits, which of the artists behind them (between Richman, Shaboozey and Carpenter) do you expect to make the biggest/most extended chart impact in the years to come?
Rania Aniftos: Again, I’m going to give this one to Sabrina. She’s been working hard at her career since she was a child on the Disney Channel and I’m surprised it’s taken her this long to pop off. She has an excellent discography and Emails I Can’t Send is a completely underrated pop album. I’m expecting “Espresso” to lead music lovers to finally give Sabrina the success she deserves.
Kyle Denis: My money’s on Sabrina given she already has bigger chart hits than both Shaboozey and Richman. Couple that with the fact that she’s truly made the best of the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that is opening for what will likely go down as the biggest tour of all time, Sabrina will be around for a minute. At the very least, she’ll become a true pop radio staple. Shaboozey’s path is obviously a bit different as he’s navigating the Nashville machine as a Black man, and Richman will probably collect one or two smaller hits before comfortably reassuming his cult hero status.
Josh Glicksman: I’ll take Sabrina Carpenter here. She’s been bubbling just under the surface of A-list pop star for what feels like years now (it’s not too late to give “Sue Me” the full moment that it has always deserved!) and now that she’s collecting a handful of Hot 100 entries, I expect that to quickly grow into the size of an overdue grocery shopping list before long.
Jason Lipshutz: Carpenter, whose 2022 album Emails I Can’t Send contained a ton of promise, and everything she’s done since then has fulfilled that promise. “Espresso” represents a breakthrough hit, but Carpenter contains the personality and pop know-how of a superstar — and she’s becoming one now, after years of build-up and gathering momentum. Shaboozey and Richman are both on upward trajectories, but Carpenter has a higher ceiling, and should be a chart force for a long time.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s Carpenter, simply because this moment is the culmination of a good half-decade — arguably even longer — of work she’s put in building her audience and pop cred, and now officially joining the ranks of the A-listers. But honestly, I’m buying stock in all three of these artists. I’d be pretty surprised if this was the last we heard from any of them on the Hot 100.
4. While these are the three biggest breakout hits currently challenging Taylor Swift’s “Fortnight” for the chart’s top spot, they’re hardly the only new singles currently making waves on the chart. Who that’s a little lower down on the listing could you see elbowing your way into the top tier before long?
Rania Aniftos: I feel like Chappell Roan is on a similar wavelength with the artist we’ve been discussing today. “Good Luck, Babe!” is a great track and Chappell is a great artist. I would love to see a snippet from that song go viral and project the track into the top 10.
Kyle Denis: I’m definitely keeping an eye on Lay Bankz’s “Tell Ur Girlfriend” (No. 58), GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion’s “Wanna Be” (No. 34, this week) and Bryson Tiller’s “Ciao,” which does not currently rank on the Hot 100.
Josh Glicksman: Aside from the obvious picks in the Kendrick Lamar-Drake rap battle, Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” and Dasha’s “Austin” both feel like they have plenty of runway left and may jetset well into the summer. The former act is coming into a superstar moment of sorts of her own, while the latter hit continues to build on a global scale. Both currently sit in the 40s, and as the Taylor Swift takeover clears out a bit in the coming week, there should be ample room to grow.
Jason Lipshutz: Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” hasn’t entered the top 40 yet, but the single sounds like a smart, charismatic commercial breakthrough for an artist with a dedicated fan base that’s been growing exponentially over the past few months. I’d expect it to keep climbing in the coming weeks based on its promising streaming returns, and depending on radio’s reaction, challenge for the top 20 (at least) soon enough.
Andrew Unterberger: All signs are clearly pointing to Chappell Roan being next up — though I’m still hoping Nashville stops messing around and finally embraces Dasha’s viral “Austin” as the future of pop-leaning country, which it almost certainly is and should be.
5. Along with Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” and Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control,” first-timer artists in the top 10 take up five of the top six spots this week. Do you think it’s meaningful that there has been such a presence for breakout artists in the chart’s top tier this year, or is it just a fluke of timing?
Rania Aniftos: While my gut is telling me it’s a fluke while we wait for the slew of major artist releases this year, I really hope it’s not. It’s been so refreshing seeing new names on the Hot 100, and I want to see more!
Kyle Denis: I think we’re still in a weird place where pop culture is trying to move forward, but our near-constant nostalgia loop is keeping us beholden to stars of yesteryear. Of course, some of those stars genuinely are still cranking out releases that do meaningfully shift the culture: We’ve gotten back-to-back blockbuster albums from Beyoncé, Ye & Ty Dolla $ign, Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, and Future & Metro Boomin (twice!) Yet tracks from those albums — barring most of their lead singles — aren’t the ones setting up shop in the Hot 100’s upper regions this year.
Josh Glicksman: If anything, it’s especially meaningful given the deluge of superstar releases so far in 2024. It could be that there have been so many blockbuster albums that the A-listers are canceling one another’s opportunities for extended chart runs a bit, but regardless, the hits from breakout artists this year are well beyond the point of calling it a fluke.
Jason Lipshutz: The timing is a little fluky — in recent weeks, veteran stars like Beyoncé, Future & Metro Boomin, Ariana Grande and Jack Harlow also occupied the top 10 — but this happy upswing in newcomers to the top 10 also underscores a general hunger for unfamiliar voices in heavy rotation after a run of high-profile albums. The release calendar has been packed so far in 2024, but thanks to a mix of TikTok virality, new pop trends like the country-folk revival, and undeniable singles from non-superstars, the top of the Hot 100 looks revitalized. We’re in for a fun-as-hell summer slate, as big projects and out-of-nowhere hits balance each other out on the Hot 100.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s simple: Popular music is up right now. Pretty much all genres, from pop to rap to country to rock, are hitting right now — while also intertwining inextricably, of course — and there’s plenty of room for exciting new releases from both the ruling class of hitmakers and an entirely new wave. It’s a fun time to be a top 40 fan, which is not something we’ve often said this decade around this time of the year.
It’s zero shock that Taylor Swift finishes her first frame for new album The Tortured Poets Department: After all, she already boasted the decade’s two biggest debuts, for 2022’s Midnights (1.578 million equivalent album units) and 2023’s 1989 (Taylor’s Version) (1.653 million units), and has only kept getting bigger in the months since those releases. Still, the exact opening number for Poets is staggering: 2.61 million units, according to Luminate, more than any album since Adele’s 25 bowed with 3.48 million in late 2015.
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The 16-track set — which Swift expanded to 31 with its Anthology edition — also debuts all of its songs on the Billboard Hot 100, while occupying each of the chart’s top 14 slots. The Hot 100 takeover is led by the album’s leadoff cut, the Post Malone collab “Fortnight,” which becomes Swift’s 12th No. 1 on the chart. Despite all its early commercial achievements, the album’s critical reception has been more mixed to start, with many criticizing the set’s length and repetitiveness.
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How did the album achieve its eye-popping first-week numbers? And will Swift’s album releases likely get smaller or even bigger from here? Billboard staffers debate these questions and more below.
1. The final first-week number for The Tortured Poets Department is 2.6 million, easily the best number of Swift’s career and the finest single-week tally since Adele’s 25 nearly a decade ago. Is that number higher, lower or about what you expected for the TTPD debut?
Hannah Dailey: I don’t think anyone could’ve predicted that the number would be so insanely high, but I did expect that TTPD would earn Swift her biggest opening week yet. It’s well established that the pop star’s spotlight has never been brighter than in the past year, thanks to the Eras Tour, her high-profile breakups from Joe Alwyn and Matty Healy and even higher-profile romance with Travis Kelce, as well as the chart/awards success of Midnights — so it was a given that more people than ever would be tuning in.
Stephen Daw: It feels strange to say that record-breaking numbers felt “expected,” but this is Taylor Swift we’re talking about. With every subsequent release — which seem to be coming more and more frequently for the singer/songwriter — she manages to break the records that she set with her last release, so it stands to reason that Tortured Poets would manage to best her Midnights and 1989 (Taylor’s Version) sales numbers.
Kyle Denis: Around what I expected. Swift is undeniably at her commercial peak right now, and she was able to leverage the breadth of that power with gargantuan 31-song tracklist and 19 different variants of the album.
Jason Lipshutz: Much higher. Considering the expectations-shattering run that Taylor Swift is on right now, I shouldn’t be surprised that The Tortured Poets Department scored the biggest bow of the 2020s with ease… but still, 2 million is a stratosphere that not even Swift herself has approached in the past, let alone an additional 600,000 units on top of that. I mean, TTPD blew the Midnights debut out of the water — and Midnights really wasn’t that long ago? This No. 1 feat demonstrates just how much higher Swift’s superstardom has climbed recently, her music becoming a monoculture unto itself that everybody needs to check out or purchase.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah higher. Over two million felt realistic, but I still thought it would be more of a peeking-its-head-over-two-million figure than one actually even closer to three million. It wasn’t even two years ago we were legitimately wondering whether another one-million-unit first week would happen again this decade; for Swift to come within shouting range of triple that is pretty wild.
2. What would you point to as being the biggest factor in Swift not only beating the already-historic first-week tallies of Midnights and 1989 (Taylor’s Version) with her TTPD debut, but clearing both by around a million units each?
Hannah Dailey: I think TTPD would have blown Midnights and 1989 out of the water no matter what, if nothing else because of how excited fans and haters alike were to scour the new lyrics for clues about her mystifying private life and famous love interests. But there’s no doubt in my mind that Swift’s surprise double album announcement is what sent the project over the two-million mark, inciting some listeners to purchase twice as many copies as they would have otherwise. She’s playing the numbers game, and she’s winning.
Stephen Daw: The short answer is the fact that the album was made available in more than 20 different formats certainly helped that Swift reach that astronomical figure. The much longer answer is that timing played a very key factor here. Between the ongoing Eras Tour and her extremely high-profile celebrity romance, Taylor Swift is currently dominating cultural discussions across the wide spectrum of what we consider entertainment. Fan interest in all things Taylor Swift has never been higher, and from the moment she announced Tortured Poets at the Grammys, Swifties have remained in a near-constant state of frenzy over the album’s release. To me, there was no world in which this album wouldn’t beat Midnights and 1989 (Taylor’s Version) by some ridiculous margin.
Kyle Denis: This is Swift’s first LP of all-new material since kicking off the Eras Tour. Since the record-breaking tour began – and her subsequent high-profile relationships with Matty Healy and Travis Kelce – she’s had her star grow even bigger, as impossible as that might have seemed. Her celebrity, brand and audience reach are bigger than ever – and she was already operating at pop music’s pole position before any of that.
As an album, Tortured Poets is also acutely aware of how deeply it delves into nearly two decades of Taylor Swift lore at a level that, a lot of the time, only die-hard fans understand. While the growth of her celebrity broadened her general reach, the material on Tortured Poets intensified how fans interacted with the album – whether that be countless listens on a streaming site or multiple purchases of the album’s different configurations to ensure every last song is in their possession.
Jason Lipshutz: The biggest tangible factor is probably the length of the album — more than twice as long as Midnights, which was always going to boost the TTPD streaming totals by comparison. Yet the most important factor here is intangible: Swift is just so much more enormous now than she was even 18 months ago — thanks in large part to the record-shattering Eras tour, as well as all of the success she’s achieved with her recent re-recorded albums, plus “Cruel Summer” becoming one of the biggest hits of 2023 after being released four years prior. Simply put, the numbers keep ballooning because Swift’s dominance in popular music keeps growing. Forget the track list length, vinyl production and romantic-drama intrigue; no matter how this album came out, it was likely becoming the biggest debut of Swift’s career.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s timing and planning. Any Swift album would have done massive numbers released a year after she set the new standard for contemporary pop superstardom, and the same year that she dominated both music’s biggest night and sports’ biggest night in consecutive weekends. But 31 tracks and nearly as many physical variants also helps, certainly.
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3. “Fortnight” leads the pack for Swift on the Hot 100 with its No. 1 debut, but she owns each of the 13 spots beneath it with TTPD tracks as well. Do you see “Fortnight” as a long-lasting hit from this album — and which of the other tracks do you think has the best chance of challenging it as the set’s biggest hit?
Hannah Dailey: Two years ago, I thought that “Anti-Hero” would fall from No. 1 after its first week on the chart. It ended up staying there for eight weeks. So, this time, I’m going to trust Swift’s instincts, if not my own, and say that “Fortnight” is smash hit potential and will indeed remain at the top for a while. But if another song were to give it a run for its money, it would be “Down Bad” or “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” — both of which debuted in the top 3 and have boundless opportunities for TikTok virality.
Stephen Daw: Of the songs off TTPD, “Fortnight” feels like one that will stick around for a while — Taylor and Posty sound great together, and the song’s mid-tempo, atmospheric feel brings something a little bit different to pop radio. But I feel fairly confident that “Down Bad” will end up being the breakout hit from TTPD. It’s got the pure pop sensibility of 1989, the seething pettiness of Reputation and the more laid-back sensibilities of Folklore and Evermore. A seamless blend of the things fans are looking for in a Taylor Swift hit, “Down Bad” can only go up from here.
Kyle Denis: I think “Fortnight” will stick around for a bit, but I doubt it truly follows in the footsteps of “Anti-Hero.” With “Who’s Afraid of Little Old Me” already going viral on TikTok, there’s hit potential there. I’d also put my money on “Down Bad” and “But Daddy I Love Him” to make something shake.
Jason Lipshutz: Maybe it won’t replace “Anti-Hero” as her longest-lasting Hot 100 No. 1 hit, but yes, “Fortnight” is positioned for a lengthy run at or near the top of the Hot 100, with strong harmonic chemistry between Swift and Post Malone and a hook that sneaks up on the listener after fully blooming in the back half of the song. It’s the most obvious single choice from TTPD to me, although I do think “Down Bad” is going to have a pronounced commercial moment — let’s get that tear-soaked gym-set music video rolling ASAP.
Andrew Unterberger: “Fortnight” sounds like a smash to me, but it will not be able to simply dominate the Hot 100 for months (or even multiple weeks) by default like it might have in years past — not with rising hits from Sabrina Carpenter, Shaboozey and Tommy Richman already nipping at its heels, and not with a world-stopping Kendrick Lamar diss record entering the fray today as well. It will need to maintain momentum at streaming while growing rapidly at radio — something it certainly has the potential to do, but which we can’t necessarily assume, even from Taylor Swift’s new single.
If it fades, I could see “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” passing it. The fact that “Heart” debuts at No. 3 on the Hot 100 despite appearing 14th in the album’s tracklist shows that fans are already isolating it as a favorite from the project in huge numbers.
4. While the commercial response to TTPD has of course been overwhelming, the critic and fan response has been a little more mixed this time around for Swift, with many citing a lack of quality control among the set’s 16 tracks (31 in the deluxe Anthology version). Do you think the mixed response will have any impact on Swift’s ever-growing superstardom, or will her unprecedented rise just continue upwards from here?
Hannah Dailey: I wouldn’t be surprised if positive public opinion about Swift ebbs a little bit after TTPD, but her superstardom will be just fine. It doesn’t matter if people are saying good or bad things about her; as long as they continue discussing her at length in any capacity, she’ll stay at the forefront of pop culture and find even more ways to use that discourse to springboard herself to previously unheard-of heights.
But, if quality control of her image as an artist – and not just a celebrity — is important to her, then she may want to take criticisms about quality control in her music seriously. TTPD is very good. But just imagine what she could make alongside a few new collaborators with fresh perspectives and a less heavy-handed approach, one that forces her to leave room only for her bestest ideas.
Stephen Daw: How does one stop a runaway train? Especially with the way that some of Swift’s fans have been mercilessly going after music critics for doing their jobs over the last two weeks, I think it’s fair to say that her stardom isn’t cooling down any time soon. With a two more re-recordings still due to come from Taylor, as well as the European dates of her Eras Tour, Taylor is not in any danger of losing relevance for the foreseeable future.
Kyle Denis: Everyone and everything hits a ceiling, and Swift might be approaching hers. I think the mixed response can be easily mitigated by a new re-recording – the circumstances are certainly starting to align for Reputation (Taylor’s Version) — or a new album with more quality control and a new sound. Nonetheless, I do think the mixed reactions are slightly indicative of Taylor fatigue across the board. The Swifties will always be there, but I can see a scenario in which casual listeners feel less inclined to check in post-Tortured Poets.
Jason Lipshutz: Following a little more than a week of discourse, it’s even more clear to me that TTPD is going to function like the 2020s version of Reputation — mainstream listeners will continue to be polarized, but Swift diehards will wrap their arms around it as an idiosyncratic opus that captures their favorite superstar’s psyche, messy sprawl of the track list and all. In the same way that Reputation didn’t slow down Swift’s commercial enormity one bit, TTPD is a behemoth that also feels like a personalized note to the most attentive fans, a combination that will keep Swift growing ever still.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s not so much about the quality of TTPD and its dozens of tracks as it as about the sheer amount of Swift we’ve been inundated with the past four years — not just in the pop-culture ubiquity sense, but in the mind-boggling volume of new tracks she’s released over that time. A little time and distance will be kinder to a lot of these songs, and certainly it’s not like folks are gonna be likely to brush off new Swift music anytime soon, but it still might be a good idea for her to chill on the new releases (or at least downscale ’em a little bit) for the next couple years or so.
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5. Adele’s 25 moved 3.48 units in its first week — a still mind-boggling number that many of us thought would never even be approached again. Swift has gotten closer than many would have expected, but she still has a decent gap to make up. What percentage chance would you give her of passing Adele’s seemingly unreachable first week at some point in her career?
Hannah Dailey: We’ve all learned not to underestimate Taylor Swift, but at the same time, I feel like TTPD would’ve been the album to surpass 25 if Swift had it in her. So for now, I’ll give her 50%. You never know, especially with her.
Stephen Daw: I’m going to be conservative and say it’s a 50/50 tossup. If anyone is going to manage to beat Adele, it will be Taylor Swift — but if the immediate, ridiculous sales numbers of TTPD aren’t able to stack up to 25, then it’s hard to imagine a future Taylor Swift album that could.
Kyle Denis: Above 50%. Taylor’s a consistent seller and smart businesswoman, it’s really all about timing with her. It’s possible that, with a longer pre-order window and Scorpion-esque playlist takeovers, Tortured Poets could have come closer to 25’s numbers. That said, something tells me that if she was ever going to pass 3.48 million units in the first week, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) and Tortured Poets were her best bets.
Jason Lipshutz: 3%. Never say never, but that number just looks too far out of reach for modern music consumption. At the very least, that number gives Swift something to aim for when the TTPD follow-up arrives.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe 25%. This does feel like it was her best shot, but Swift didn’t get to where she is by accepting “close but not quite,” so I imagine she’ll continue trying for it. 2.6 million isn’t a world removed from 3.5 million, though it’s still far enough that it’s not a gap to be bridged with a couple more vinyl variants or another bonus disc of leftover cuts. I don’t know how she might do it, but I do know that I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting against her doing so.
In a year where the big stars of the past decade have been coming out early to lay claim to the top spot of the Billboard Hot 100 — Beyoncé, Ariana Grande, Future, Metro Boomin and Kendrick Lamar, the entire Vultures crew — one 2010s hitmaker few saw coming as a top-spot threat scores his first-ever No. 1 on the chart this week.
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Hozier, whose lone single to approach the top of the Hot 100 came in 2014 with the No. 2-peaking megaballad “Take Me to Church,” reaches No. 1 this week with TikTok-teased new single “Too Sweet” in its fourth week on the chart. The Irish singer-songwriter had maintained a sizable fanbase since the 2014 smash, but went the next eight years without reaching the Hot 100, until scoring a handful of entries in the lower stretches and one top 40 hit (via an appearance on the remix to Noah Kahan’s “Northern Attitude”) last year.
How did Hozier make his way not only back to the top 10, but all the way to the top spot? And what does this mean for his career going forward? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. So straight off the top — if you were told at the beginning of 2024 that Hozier would have his first No. 1 hit by April, how surprised would you be, on a scale from 1 to 10?
Katie Atkinson: 10! Of course, watching the Hot 100 in the months since has definitely made it much less surprising, because we’ve seen TeddySwims score his first No. 1, we’ve seen Benson Boone climb to No. 2, and we’ve seen Noah Kahan peak in the top 10, so Hozier topping the chart is completely in line with all that. But knowing what we knew on Jan. 1, it had been 10 years since he broke through with “Take Me to Church” and he was still hanging around the Hot 100, but the closest he’d returned to his No. 2 peak with “Church” was to the top 40 last year with Kahan (more on that below). Clearly, his chart-topping moves were already in the works.
Stephen Daw: 10, easy. I loved Unreal Unearth and have been a big fan of Hozier’s since his self-titled debut LP in 2013 — but I genuinely thought “Take Me to Church” would be his chart ceiling. Even when “Too Sweet” began blowing up online, I figured, at best, it would float around the top 40 for a few months before dying back down. But I am delightfully shocked to see audiences really embrace Hozier again, especially on a song as undeniably good as “Too Sweet.”
Kyle Denis: About a 7. I had a feeling that whatever music Hozier came out with post-Unreal Unearth would do fairly well. That album did a lot to rejuvenate casual interest him beyond being pigeon-holed as the “Take Me to Chruch” guy.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. Sure, Hozier hasn’t been churning out top 10 hits over the past few years, but he has accrued quite a following during that time — there’s a reason he was able to schedule an arena and amphitheater tour for later this year, before “Too Sweet” was even released. Plus, country- and folk-adjacent pop-rock has certainly invaded the upper reaches of the Hot 100 over the past six months, with artists like Noah Kahan, Zach Bryan, Teddy Swims and Benson Boone all scoring smashes with their respective versions of the guitar-based renaissance. So, yes, still surprising to see a Hozier single atop the Hot 100, but certainly far from jaw-dropping.
Andrew Unterberger: A 9 — and it would’ve been a 10 at the beginning of 2023, but after Hozier’s impressive last year and popular music generally tilting in the direction of his arena-sized alt-folk, a comeback moment of some kind certainly seemed like it could’ve been on the horizon. But a No. 1 hit, at this extremely competitive moment in Hot 100 history? No, I cannot pretend that I saw that coming in any way.
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2. Hozier had not even reached the Hot 100 again for eight years following his 2014 smash “Take Me to Church,” then returned to the Hot 100 multiple times in the past year, though he had not gotten higher than No. 37 as a guest on Noah Kahan’s remixed “Northern Attitude.” Is him finally reaching No. 1 this year more of a function of overall timing or about “Too Sweet” in particular, in your opinion?
Katie Atkinson: I think timing is a piece of it, but this song is also undeniably great, so I’m going to give it to “Too Sweet.” The song has great lyrics, and you can discover a new cute phrase with every listen, and the way he lilts that chorus seems to put his not-quite-right partner’s sweetness into song. The combo of its easy-listening melody paired with lyrics we can all probably relate to makes for a hit.
Stephen Daw: It’s definitely more about “Too Sweet” itself, but the timing certainly doesn’t hurt. With the Noah Kahanaissance in full swing, contemporary folk music is having its biggest moment since the “stomp clap hey” days of the early 2010s, which is a huge opportunity for artists like Hozier who thrived in that aforementioned era. It’s abundantly clear that “Too Sweet” came in the perfect timeframe, but it’s worth noting that Hozier put out an entire album of folk songs in the middle of this sea change last year, and only “Eat Your Young” managed to crack into the lower half of the Hot 100 (debuting at No. 67 and then immediately falling off the chart two weeks later). Clearly, “Too Sweet” has that X factor that keeps people listening.
Kyle Denis: The success of “Too Sweet,” in particular, has more to do with where the sound of Top 40 is right now than anything else. Analog instrumentation with an emphasis on guitars and big, soaring vocals are in right now (see: Teddy Swims, Benson Boone, Michael Marcagi, Kahan) and Hozier happened to drop an absolute banger at just the right time. Between his incredibly successful Unreal Unearth tour and his countless appearances at festivals across the world, Hozier has enraptured a whole new audience whose ears have been primed for the pop-rock swagger of “Too Sweet” by the other guitar-centric tunes that have dominated the upper regions of the Hot 100 this year.
Jason Lipshutz: A combination of both. “Too Sweet” is pretty undeniable as a crossover hit, a smoky groove that relies on the deep timbre of Hozier’s voice to provide gravitas to its creeping hooks. Pop music trends helped push “Too Sweet” higher on the Hot 100 than it might have gone in other years, when it was darn near impossible to imagine a straight-up rock song hitting No. 1. Yet for Hozier, this single was the right one to deliver a new level of chart success, and hit the market at the right time.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s gotta be more about timing, because I am just flummoxed as to why this song of all songs is the one to take Hozier to the penthouse. Not that it’s bad, just that it doesn’t feel in any way exceptional among Hozier’s last decade of releases — if you told me it was originally a deep cut I’d forgotten about from 2019’s Wasteland, Baby! I would have zero trouble believing you. People evidently hear more there than I do to be streaming it in the massive numbers that they are, but I still have to think that it’s more effect than cause as relates to the larger Hozier revival.
3. Do you think the success of “Too Sweet” re-establishes Hozier as a true A-list star in 2024, or is it more a one-time deal for the singer-songwriter that’s unlikely to lead to many future successes beyond his pre-established cult fandom?
Katie Atkinson: I think this definitely re-establishes Hozier’s place in music. It’s nice that this trend of growly-voiced singer/songwriters (as established in this very column back in late January) has not only created new stars, but has also given rise to artists who have been doing this for a decade. At this moment, AC and pop radio is more primed to play Hozier music than ever before, and he’s seized that moment.
Stephen Daw: I wouldn’t go as far as saying “A-list,” but I think “Too Sweet” will definitely net Hozier a lot of cultural capital that will cement his place as one of the most sought-after voices in the folk-pop space. That’s in large part because of the cult fandom that has helped spread this song across apps like TikTok for the last few months — with an established fanbase already built in, it only feels that much more natural for newcomers to join in and strengthen that core, which leads to a wider base, which leads to more recruiting, so on and so forth. Watch this space, because “Too Sweet” is just the beginning of Hozier’s mainstream return.
Kyle Denis: I don’t know if Hozier was ever truly A-list, and I don’t think “Too Sweet” puts him there either. Nonetheless, it’s a beautiful culmination of a truly underrated two years for him. He packed out arenas night after night on Unreal Unearth tour and the accompanying album had a lot of grassroots love, including two chart-toppers at AAA radio. I think, at best, “Too Sweet” will help increase the size of his cult fandom and rope more fans into the sprawling lore behind some of his most beloved songs and lyrics. That should be enough for him to continue getting major hits in his home formats while providing a cushion for a mainstream smash whenever the pop music pendulum swings in the direction of his sound.
Jason Lipshutz: My guess is that Hozier continues in the same lane he’s occupied for years, with a slighter brighter light moving forward. Maybe he hadn’t matched the single-song success of “Take Me to Church” prior to “Too Sweet,” yet all three of his studio albums scored top 3 debuts on the Billboard 200, and he’s been playing to sizable crowds for a decade now. “Too Sweet” is unlikely to yield a slew of follow-up chart hits, but Hozier was not an obscure artist prior to this No. 1 hit; the audiences streaming his songs and buying his tickets will grow because of “Too Sweet,” regardless of how his next singles perform.
Andrew Unterberger: I think he’s there, to be honest — probably even moreso than he was in 2014. It’s one thing for radio and pop culture ubiquity to elevate your big hit to smash status (as happened with “Church”), but when it’s simply some good TikTok promotion and online buzz that lifts your song above hot new releases from many of the biggest superstars of the past 15 years, that usually means you’re pretty golden for some time to come. Hozier might not top the Hot 100 again, but I’d be a little surprised at this point if he didn’t become a regular fixture on the chart for at least the next few years.
4. If you had to look back to the early-mid 2010s for another hitmaking artist from the alt and/or folk spheres who could be due for a big 2020s comeback moment like this, who would you point to?
Katie Atkinson: The first thing that came to mind was The Lumineers, who peaked at No. 3 on the Hot 100 back in 2012 with “Ho Hey.” They’ve stayed active in music since then but haven’t climbed back to those heights. They should be looking for a Noah Kahan feature right about now.
Stephen Daw: As much as I desperately want to see Gotye return to his solo career and score another gargantuan hit like “Somebody That I Used to Know,” the chances of that happening seem infinitesimally small. So, instead, I’ll go with Florence + The Machine — the band certainly hasn’t gone anywhere since the peak of their success in 2010 and 2011, charting three top 10 albums in the intervening years. I could easily see Florence Welch and company crafting a folksy, funky anthem that takes off on TikTok and occupies a similar space to “Too Sweet” some time in the next few months.
Kyle Denis: Gotye or George Ezra. If we stretch to the back half of the 2000s, I’ll throw in Colbie Caillat and Kings of Leon too.
Jason Lipshutz: If a new Gotye album exists at the end of the earth, to be discovered only by the bravest and most ambitious xylophone-music enthusiast, then it looks like I am going on an expedition. After “Somebody That I Used To Know” took over the Hot 100 and Making Mirrors turned into one of the most underrated pop full-lengths of the 2010s, we are still waiting for a follow-up from Wally de Backer. And while I am a diehard fan rooting for a comeback, I do think that a Gotye return would generate considerable interest from curious pop fans! Call up Kimbra, grab the buckets of face paint, and let’s go.
Andrew Unterberger: “Riptide” singer-songwriter Vance Joy — who, like Hozier, never really went away after his one big U.S. crossover hit — feels no more than a big-ticket remix away from getting back on the Hot 100.
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5. “Take Me to Church”: more timeless classic or dated mid-’10s relic?
Katie Atkinson: Wait, is anyone going to say relic? This song is still so good! I’m definitely going timeless classic and welcoming Andrew Hozier-Byrne back with open arms into the 2020s.
Stephen Daw: I can hear “Take Me to Church” today and feel it hit just as hard as it did a decade ago — this one is timeless classic, for sure.
Kyle Denis: Timeless classic. This ain’t “Party Rock Anthem!”
Jason Lipshutz: I lean towards “mid-‘10s relic” — not as a knock on the song, but because, especially in lieu of “Too Sweet” topping the Hot 100, it sure seems like Hozier has transcended what once was his defining hit and fashioned out a formidable career! “Take Me to Church” enjoyed its moment of ubiquity, but its creator has moved on to bigger and better.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s certainly got claims to being both — it’s hard to hear the song without being reminded of the dozens of trailers and pop culture moments it soundtracked in the mid-’10s, not to mention the moments of our own lives. But I lean a little more towards timeless classic, because even back in 2014 it felt elevated from the rest of what was happening on the charts, and there’s still no other song in 21st century pop music that occupies its exact space.
It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for J. Cole.
He was roped into the most buzzed-about beef in recent rap history last month when fellow superstar Kendrick Lamar sent apparent shots at him and collaborator Drake in his own Billboard Hot 100-topping Future and Metro Boomin teamup, “Like That.” Two Fridays ago (Apr. 5), he responded with his new mixtape Might Delete Later and its climactic answer diss, “7 Minute Drill” — before publicly backing off the rejoinder at his own Dreamville Festival the following Sunday, explaining that feuding with Lamar didn’t sit right with him, and announcing his intent to remove the response cut from streaming.
The backlash from the internet and the larger hip-hop community was swift, with fans first dismissing “Drill” as lukewarm and uncommitted, and then largely mocking Cole for bowing out of the beef rather than standing behind his response. Nonetheless, Might Delete Later debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with 115,000 units — down from Cole’s usual first-week totals for new albums, but still a strong showing by most other artists’ standards, particularly for a mixtape — while “Drill” bows at No. 6 on the Hot 100, though Cole made good on his promise to take the song off streaming on Friday (Apr. 12), following the end of its first full tracking week.
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What should we take away from Cole’s Might Delete Later showing? And will the sour taste this era has left in many rap fans’ mouths end up following Cole to his long-anticipated The Fall Off release? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. J. Cole debuts at No. 2 this week with 115,000 units for Might Delete Later. On a scale of 1-10, if you’re J. Cole, how satisfied are you with that first-week performance?
Kyle Denis: If I’m J. Cole and I really am orchestrating all of this as an elaborate roll out for The Fall Off, 10. If I’m J. Cole and this has nothing to do with The Fall Off at all, probably around a 6. A six-figure opening week units total in 2024 is never anything to scoff at, but after six consecutive studio albums hitting No. 1 and debuting with over 200,000 units, these numbers certainly leave more to be desired. Of course, Beyoncé is Beyoncé, but the fact that Cowboy Carter’s second week pulled ahead of Delete’s first — despite the latter initially leading predictions – speaks to how quickly consumers decided Cole’s latest offering wasn’t worth their time.
Angel Diaz: If I’m Cole, I’ll be at a 10. The second spot on the 200 isn’t too shabby for a mixtape that was overshadowed by an unfortunate apology amid one of the more intriguing rap feuds in recent memory.
Carl Lamarre: A 5. If I were Cole, half of me would be proud that I cracked six figures with little to no promotion. Based on my surprise drop, I can’t be upset if I lost to Beyonce. The other half is sick because the rap community is bullying me over that one record.
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Might Delete Later was a surprise release arriving in an absolutely stacked portion of the release calendar, amidst a hip-hop superstar civil war outshining a lot of the actual music, and headlined by a diss track that was regretted and removed from streaming services… and it still did six figures in its first week. This project didn’t receive a traditional rollout and has been defined more by where it fits into a Larger Beef Narrative than Cole’s greater discography, so its final total should be a sign that he’s still a commercial force.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 4. Yes, it’s just a mixtape, surprise release, whatever: If hip-hop fans were genuinely excited about this release (and “Drill” in particular) it would’ve still done big business. Cole coming in second for a full-length project, with well under half of the first-week units for 2021’s The Off Season — with all the eyes and ears of the hip-hop world set upon him — is a disappointment by his standards, straight up.
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2. Cole seems to have hedged expectations with just about everything regarding this set, from calling it a mixtape to repeatedly referencing it as the prelude to his upcoming The Fall Off project to titling it something non-committal to *actually deleting* one of its tracks from streaming this weekend. Given all of this, do you think it’s still fair to judge it as a proper J. Cole body of work, or do you kinda give it an asterisk there?
Kyle Denis: I think all those caveats warrant an asterisk. Nonetheless, Delete is still an 11-track set released under the J. Cole moniker – it’s undoubtedly a body of work, just far from his best.
Angel Diaz: I’m going to take it for what it is: a mixtape, a body of work, whatever you want to call it these days. Even if he decides to delete the entire tape eventually, the Internet is forever, and it’ll be floating around somewhere. He should throw it up on Dat Piff and really bring the feeling back.
Carl Lamarre: It’s a body of work in which he was demonstrative about his rap standing and had no shame talking s–t. If you subtract the Dipset-flip for “Ready 24,” this was all original music with some creative touches. Even if it wasn’t up to Cole’s standards, Might Delete Later was packaged like an ordinary rap album.
Jason Lipshutz: An asterisk, for sure, which makes its No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200 so impressive. If this is the prelude to a major new Cole project, based on its 115,000 unit start, I’d expect The Fall Off to score one of the biggest debuts of the year. And yes, if you’re literally deleting songs from a project once it’s released, chances are you don’t want that project to function as a defining work.
Andrew Unterberger: There’s a bit of an asterisk, sure, but not one nearly as big or as definitive as Cole’s hoping for.
3. “7 Minute Drill” debuts at No. 6 this week, and will most likely only get the one week in the top 10 after Cole removed it from streaming services on Friday. Do you think the lone week in the top 10 — particularly as “Like That” enjoys its third week at No. 1 — is more than the song deserves, less, or about right?
Kyle Denis: Instinctively, I want to say it deserves less because of how limp of a response it is. But part of me thinks this is exactly what “7 Minute Drill” deserves. A single week in the top 10 is emblematic of the initial curiosity the song courted, and plummeting from that region as quickly as it got there is the perfect parallel to the lukewarm reception the song received once those first listens were complete.
Angel Diaz: I’m not sure what’s going on with this track because it still shows up in my Apple Music downloads on my phone but isn’t available on Spotify or the desktop version of Apple Music. I think it makes sense that it would creep into the top 10 when you factor in all the drama surrounding it. Cole must really be apologetic because he’s leaving some money on the table, so I guess it’s about right.
Carl Lamarre: Out of sheer anticipation, this is right where it should be. Cole isn’t a battle rapper — as proven by his swift exit from the ongoing rap civil war — but because of his high-level MC status, grit, and charisma, there was hope that Cole would at least try to even the score against Kendrick. Sure, scrubbing the record from streaming cleanses your spiritual energy — and waiting as long as he did to do it ensures it will still be forever deemed a top 10 record — but we all know the chatter that’s going on in hip-hop circles about that song and apology.
Jason Lipshutz: Sounds about right to me. Even if Cole hadn’t hastily removed “7 Minute Drill” from streaming services, I’d expect the track to attain an explosive chart debut and quick drop-off, since most listeners stopped by to hear the Kendrick disses without absorbing the actual song. While “Like That” stands on its own as a scorching-hot single surrounding Kendrick Lamar’s guest spot, “7 Minute Drill” sounds haphazardly constructed as a platform for a lukewarm takedown. It was always going to pique curiosities upon its release, and never going to last after that.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s about right. I was more positive on “Drill” that most — I feel it got some decent digs in there, and to be honest, I respect that he kept his attacks kinda practical and not that hyperbolic. But is it as good a song as “Like That”? Of course not. Even without the rapper Deleting Later, it probably would’ve fallen off the Hot 100 in a few weeks once the curiosity listens died down, and almost certainly would’ve spent just the one week in its top tier. That’s fine.
4. While “Drill” and its subsequent Cole about-face will likely make up the majority of the Might Delete Later legacy, is there anything elsewhere on the mixtape that you think is particularly notable/memorable/interesting for this Cole period?
Kyle Denis: None of the music on Delete is interesting or impressive enough to rise out of the shadow of Cole’s decisions during this period – and that’s perfectly okay. I think his exit from the “Big Three” battle will easily stand as the most notable component of the Delete era for better and for worse. We’ll definitely look back on this entire back-and-forth – and Cole’s role and performance, in particular – as a key inflection point for the evolution of mainstream rap beef post-Hip-Hop 50.
If anything, most of the mixtape’s collaborations were welcome, but unnecessary, reminders of how great the chemistry is between Dreamville artists.
Angel Diaz: J. Cole blacked on a couple of these records, man, that’s what makes his apology so frustrating and I’m not even the biggest Cole fan. “Huntin’ Wabbitz,” going bar-for-bar with Killa on “Ready ‘24,” and getting his lyrical miracle on with battle rap veteran Daylyt and TDE’s Ab Soul on “Pi” show that he belongs in the Big 3 conversation. For a surprise mixtape, Might Delete Later is a solid offering from a solid rapper.
Carl Lamarre: I can’t lie; the erasure of “Drill” and his Dreamville Fest apology killed my listening experience post-release. Ironically, I wasn’t even a fan of “Drill” and thought “Trae The Truth in Ibiza” could have served as the project’s ideal send-off. But after he dismissed “Drill,” I tried listening again, and it hurt me because Cole spent the tape boasting about his lyrical prowess — most notably on “Ready 24.” I can’t even play that record back, because some of Cole’s first words are: “Ain’t no n—a better than me in this f–kin’ planet, I swear to God.” The about-face at Dreamville Fest killed any positive motion I had for his project, and I’m a devout fan.
Jason Lipshutz: The Central Cee team-up on “H.Y.B.” is intriguing, and my ’00s hip-hop-loving heart was overjoyed to hear both Cam’ron (!) and Young Duo (!!!) on this project. But the most interesting moment on Might Delete Later was “7 Minute Drill,” as well as how Cole handled the song following its release. We’ll see how calling an audible on the diss track affects his artistic perspective moving forward, but the move will define Might Delete Later, even though the song itself no longer exists on the project.
Andrew Unterberger: The collabs are good! I’ve never heard Cole sounding this versatile, meeting collaborators as wide-ranging as Cam’Ron, Central Cee and Ab-Soul mostly on their home terrain, without ever sounding like he’s stretching too far outside his own lane. I truly cannot remember the last time I’ve advocated for a rapper to take on MORE name guests on their album, but for the Patron Saint of Platinum With No Features, maybe the switch-up could help keep things a little fresh for him on The Fall Off.
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5. Cole has taken a near-unanimous L in general debate and on social media for “7 Minute Drill” and his subsequent Dreamville apology. Do you think it will actually affect perception and/or reception for Cole on future projects, or will this all become yesterday’s news for him and his fanbase pretty quickly?
Kyle Denis: Both. And that’s the exact reason why this “beef” will have no verifiable victor. Cole’s fans already decided that they were rocking with him through thick and thin back in 2011, if not earlier. They survived the Noname battle and other controversies; this is not going to substantially shift the mindset of his fanbase. When it comes to those outside of Cole World, however, Cole’s exit and apology have blown up the once-solidified “Big Three” of the blog era. Like Drake and Lamar, reception for Cole’s projects have always had a built-in sheen because of how he’s revered in hip-hop circles. Based on the varied reception to his “Red Leather” verse, that’s already started to change a little bit. Ultimately, I think Cole will be just fine – but he should probably prepare himself for The Fall Off to be his most meticulously analyzed and critiqued album yet.
Angel Diaz: I think this has already negatively affected his career. Fans will eventually forgive and forget, but for now he’s basically Switzerland as a band of American rappers clique up to take down the behemoth in the North. He had to stand 10 toes down after this song dropped because, like I said earlier, the Internet is forever. The disses weren’t even that personal and he’s rapped too many slick lines about being the best for too many years. His biggest mistake was dedicating a track to Kendrick, when Dot just sent a couple subs his way, while taking direct aim at Drake.
I understand his sentiments, but I wonder if he feels like he’s missing out on the history being made right now. The Fall Off most definitely needs to be a unanimous classic or at least close to it for borderline fans such as myself to take him seriously again. He put himself in a hole for absolutely no reason. I don’t think his career is over, but the convo about him being the best rapper in the game is over for now.
Jason Lipshutz: Depending on how this genre-encompassing diss parade plays out, Cole releasing “7 Minute Drill,” pulling a “whoopsie” and bowing out of the contest altogether… might have been the best thing for him. For better or worse, we now know where he stands on this matter, and now he can view the fracas from afar while moving on to his next projects. Cole already released The Sideline Story more than a decade ago, and maybe it’s best that that’s where he’ll be during this free-for-all.
Andrew Unterberger: I think the folks who are calling Cole “finished” are on an altogether different planet, but could it have a residual long-term effect? Not impossible, but considering all the “rap is a competitive sport” takes that have surrounded hip-hop discourse lately, folks would do well to remember that in rap, as in pro sports, fans have short memories. Joel Embiid had an embarrassing playoff showing last year against the Celtics, but if he leads the Sixers past Boston and to the finals this year, most people will forget about 2023 real quick. Same thing with Cole — at least, if his next album is as good as he’s hyping it to be.
If it felt like Beyoncé‘s Cowboy Carter was the only album anyone was talking about last week, there was a reason for that: It was on pace to post the biggest single week for an album so far in 2024 by a wide margin.
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The album, Bey’s long-awaited pivot to a country-rooted sound and the second part of her expected Renaissance trilogy, bows atop the Billboard 200 with 407,000 units in its first frame, galloping past the 251,000 units moved by Future & Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You in its debut, previously the top single-week mark for any album in 2024. It’s also well clear of the 332,000 units posted by Renaissance Act I in its first week, making it Beyoncé’s best entrance since Lemonade notched over 650,000 units upon its 2016 debut.
How was Beyoncé able to outdo her Renaissance comeback? And what could we possibly expect to come with her eventual Act III? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. We once again have a new high-water mark for a 2024 first week with the 407,000 units moved by Cowboy Carter in its first frame — a solid 75k higher than the 332,000 moved by Renaissance in its debut week. What do you think is the biggest reason beyond the superior first-week number for Beyoncé’s latest?
Kyle Denis: The biggest reason is the same as the one I gave when we broke down the massive streaming debut she garnered with Cowboy Carter lead single “Texas Hold ‘Em” a few weeks ago — Beyoncé is finally playing ball with new solo music after completing her transition to the streaming era. Renaissance’s numbers, while nothing to scoff at, were indicative of its circumstances — Beyoncé’s first solo studio album to receive a simultaneous wide release across all major streaming platforms. Now that Renaissance has run its course and done the job of introducing Queen Bey’s new music to younger streaming audiences, Cowboy Carter is riding off into the sunset off the back of that foundation. Couple that with both the natural curiosity of an artist like Beyoncé delving into country music and the current commercial power of that genre, and you’re left with Cowboy Carter’s robust first-week units total.
Jason Lipshutz: Track length, curiosity and quality. The fact that Cowboy Carter is 11 songs longer than Renaissance undoubtedly helped its streaming totals, as did the incalculable number of casual listeners who had heard about Beyoncé releasing her version of a country music album and pressing play with their interests piqued. But also, Cowboy Carter does not play out like a gimmick — the album has earned raves from both the BeyHive and neutral observers, and stands as one of the boldest mainstream projects of the year. We’ll see how it endures in her overall discography, but immediately, Cowboy Carter was a lightning rod too interesting to deny.
Taylor Mims: There was a lot more build up and marketing for Cowboy Carter than there was for Renaissance. We had the Verizon announcement, as well as two lead singles that really set the tone. There is no greater marketing than a single as good as “Texas Hold ‘Em.” The song was a great encapsulation of country music, made for brilliant line dancing videos and has been on repeat for months. While people might have been hesitant to listen to dance music or trust Beyoncé in a non-pop/R&B space, she proved that she can take on just about anything with Renaissance and even more fans were onboard for round two with Cowboy Carter. Being part of the Renaissance world last year was a big deal, and a lot of people did not want to miss out on the next big thing she did.
Melinda Newman: While a Beyoncé release always dominates headlines and charts, this one got an incredible start based on the Super Bowl commercial and the drop of “Texas Hold ‘Em” and “16 Carriages.” That started non-stop chatter for six weeks about the album and the reaction it would get from the country community, so by the time the album dropped, “Texas Hold ‘Em” had already topped a number of Billboard charts and the cultural discourse had reached a fever pitch.
Andrew Unterberger: The hype here was arguably even greater than for Renaissance, and it built on both the wildly positive reception for that album and the ensuing, headline-capturing Renaissance Wrold Tour. Plus, never hurts in the streaming era to have 27 tracks instead of just 16.
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2. Unlike with the recent blockbuster bows from albums by Ariana Grande and Future & Metro Boomin, which both spawned No. 1 Billboard Hot 100 debuts as well, the highest-charting song from Cowboy Carter in its first week is still prior Hot 100-topper “Texas Hold ‘Em,” which returns to No. 2 on the chart. Is there another track on the album that you think could be ticketed for a similar level of chart success, or is it all just parts of a bigger whole outside of “Texas”?
Kyle Denis: It’s a great problem to have, but there are many potential smashes on Cowboy Carter. Obviously “Jolene” and the Miley Cyrus-assisted “II Most Wanted” garnered the most traction during release week, but I’ve seen a lot of love for “Bodyguard,” “Ya Ya,” Riiverdance,” “II Hands II Heaven,” “Tyrant” and “Levii’s Jeans” (with Post Malone). If I had to choose one or two songs to directly follow in the footsteps of “Texas,” I’d put my money on “Bodyguard” and “II Most Wanted,” with “Ya Ya” right behind them.
Jason Lipshutz: I think “Bodyguard” eventually gets there, after the initial plays of Cowboy Carter prioritized her rendition of “Jolene” as well as the Miley Cyrus duet “II Most Wanted” (both of which debuted in the top 10 of the Hot 100). “Bodyguard” may have started below them both at No. 26, but the song offers the most thrilling distillation of Beyoncé’s country-pop approach on the album, as well as a hook and tempo that could work at multiple radio formats. Of course fans wanted to see what Bey did with “Jolene” and alongside Miley, but when the dust settles, I’d expect “Bodyguard” to keep climbing.
Taylor Mims: “Riiverdance” and “Bodyguard” seem like a clear frontrunners given the attention they have already received on TikTok and beyond. But there is still plenty of room for “II Hands II Heaven” and “Levii’s Jeans” to get love on streaming and radio. “Ya Ya” also has a wonderful sample of “These Boots Are Made for Walking” by Nancy Sinatra, and feels both familiar and new in a way that I think will carry it further than the first week numbers suggest.
Melinda Newman: There are a few. Though it’s not in line stylistically with what’s hitting on the Hot 100, “Blackbiird” is simply beautiful, and deserves the biggest audience possible. Beyoncé takes the 1968 Beatles’ classic, which Paul McCartney said he wrote about the civil rights movement, and reinvents it into a glorious testimony, with the help of rising Black women country artists Tanner Adell, Tiera Kennedy, Reyna Roberts and Brittney Spencer. The arrangement, which includes part of the Beatles’ original version and stunning backing vocals from the four newcomers, is too good not to find the broadest possible audience.
Andrew Unterberger: “Bodyguard” seems like the most obvious Cowboy Bey Bop, one that multiple radio formats could glom onto for the entire summer if so inclined. And even though it wasn’t actually Taylor Swift providing those sighing backing vocals as many fans theorized…. maybe it’s not too late for her to actually do so for the song’s remix? Needless to say, that would certainly seal the deal.
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3. There are a whole host of guests on Cowboy Carter who have already gotten a considerable bump from their appearance on the album. Either from a legacy standpoint or a rising popularity standpoint, which outside collaborator do you think will benefit the most from their involvement with Cowboy Carter?
Kyle Denis: I would say Shaboozey and Tanner Adell. Shaboozey – who appears on “Spaghettii” and “Sweet ★ Honey ★ Buckiin” — is launching a new album next month (titled, Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going, out May 31), which gives him a nice window to convert the initial Cowboy Carter boost into a larger fanbase that tunes in to his own releases.
Adell has the built-in narrative of people clowning her for hoping for Beyoncé collab just for her to appear on both “Ameriican Requiem” and “Blackbiird.” That, coupled with her low-key viral “Buckle Bunny” and marketability as a “Beyoncé with a lasso,” should result in a substantial career boost for her. Fellow “Blackbiird” collaborator Brittney Spencer should also benefit nicely from this moment, given that it coincides with the current momentum of her My Stupid Life album, which dropped on Jan. 19. Moreover, Tierra Kennedy is releasing a single titled “I Ain’t a Cowgirl” on April 26, so she also has a chance to parlay this new exposure into a hit of her own.
Of course, from a legacy standpoint, country pioneer Linda Martell stands to earn the biggest boost. People know and love Dolly Parton and Willie Nelson, but Cowboy Carter introduces Martell to millions of new listeners and people generally unaware of her contributions to country music history.
Jason Lipshutz: Someone send Willie Jones the Shaq “I wasn’t familiar with your game” meme on my behalf, because, holy cow, I could wait to hear more from him after listening to his Cowboy Carter duet “Just for Fun” for the first time. I could see the song serving as a springboard to legitimate mainstream interest for Jones, a former X Factor contestant who’s carved out a country following but has yet to score a crossover hit. “Just for Fun” could be that hit if it becomes a single from Cowboy Carter, but if not, Jones is deservedly experiencing an upswing now.
Taylor Mims: It has to be Linda Martell. Folks are already listening to Miley Cyrus and Post Malone, so I doubt their numbers will be as significant as Martell’s. A lot of people either weren’t familiar with her legacy before Cowboy Carter or they are going to be excited to return to her work. And she deserves renewed attention. Dolly Parton will also certainly continue to see a bump in streaming for at least “Jolene.” Beyoncé’s version is great, but it definitely makes you want to go back and listen to the original.
Melinda Newman: Beyoncé has not only created a work that honors the roots of country music and serves as an educational and entertaining work, she knowingly used her currency to shine the light on country legends and newcomers. While Dolly Parton and Willie Nelson don’t need the extra attention from Beyoncé, the legacy artist most likely to get the biggest boost from her presence on the album is Linda Martell, the first Black woman to play the Grand Ole Opry. Though Martell’s country career was brief — she registered only three top 40 Country Airplay hits — it was very significant, and her spoken-word inclusion on two tracks on Cowboy Carter has already helped introduce her to millions of Beyoncé and country fans and burnished her place in the history books. The timing couldn’t be better, as Martell’s granddaughter is working on a documentary about her 82-year-old grandmother.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s Martell. Maybe not everyone who hears Cowboy Carter will go digging for 1970’s Color Me Country — though many listeners already have — but at the very least, her name now rings out with casual country (and pop and R&B) fans in a way that it perhaps never quite has before thanks to the major bump in exposure she’s getting from being one of this set’s spiritual elders. That increase in recognition of her legacy should long outlive any short-term streaming bump.
4. Cowboy Carter is the third album in four weeks to set a new mark for the best single-week performance of 2024, with a fourth very possibly coming via Taylor Swift in another couple weeks. Is there any particular reason you think the past month or so has seen such a glut of successful big-ticket releases, or is it mostly just a fluke of timing?
Kyle Denis: I think it’s a mixture of a fluke of timing and people trying to get their records out before the imminent Taylor Swift hurricane. That’s not to say that every artist who released before Swift was trying to get their moment in the sun before Tortured Poets Department, but I’m sure that crossed the minds of their labels and teams, at the very least.
Jason Lipshutz: Nope, just a timing fluke. New albums from Beyoncé, Future & Metro Boomin and Ariana Grande are always going to be big deals regardless of when they’re released, and after a relatively sleepy release calendar in January and February, things started to heat up in March, with Taylor, Billie and more Future/Metro around the corner as well. It’s been a fun month for pop fans (although I do fear that the summer will be comparatively barren — somebody save an album for July, please!).
Taylor Mims: Since roughly the Grammy awards in early February, big stars have been priming fans for a big year. Taylor Swift announced her new album. Kacey Musgraves announced hers the same day. We already had Ariana Grande and new Dua Lipa on the horizon. The music industry decided 2024 was going to be a big year for music and fans are paying attention. Beyoncé and Swift had a huge impact on music sales and touring last year and, rather than relying on two mega stars like 2023, it looks like there will be several other big names filling in the spaces around them this year.
Melinda Newman: There was a time before streaming’s rise when the fourth quarter was the repository for all the year’s biggest releases in order to take advantage of the holiday giving season, but that went out the window years ago when listeners switched to streaming instead of wanting a new CD in their stocking. That has led to big releases dropping year round, so I think the quick succession of record-setters is just coincidence. If anything, I imagine the acts would like a little more breathing room between releases so they could get more time at No. 1 instead of a revolving door at the top.
Andrew Unterberger: Some years, everybody just kinda gets in the pool at once. I do think we’re also just in a particularly rich period for new music at the highest commercial levels, both in terms of the established A-list artists and in the rising artists/sounds starting to properly crystalize within the mainstream. Maybe it’s just that we’re deep enough into the 2020s now (and out of the COVID-19 pandemic) for artists to feel more comfortable diving in with new projects. Regardless of the reasons behind it, it’s a fun time to be a pop fan.
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5. Act I was largely based in dance, and Act II has mostly come from the country world. Assuming it’s also rooted in a genre/history exploration, would you most be interested in hearing Beyoncé do with her potential Act III of Renaissance?
Kyle Denis: Rock is the genre most people expect for Act III, and I wouldn’t be mad at that. Nonetheless, there was already a solid amount of rock on Cowboy Carter, so how about a funk album? Let’s see Bey in her Parliament era! Completely selfishly, I’d love for Act III to be an album of jazz standards or musical theatre covers. This is just my truth!
Jason Lipshutz: Rock, for sure. We’ve got the expansion of the “Daddy Lessons” universe, now it’s time for “Don’t Hurt Yourself” to get one, too.
Taylor Mims: The rumor is rock and I would love that. As a big fan of rock, especially old rock’n’roll that came from legends like Sister Rosetta Tharpe, Big Mama Thornton, Tina Turner, Chuck Berry, etc. – I think Beyoncé could do wonders with old school rock’n’roll, as well as reinvigorate a genre that has lost a lot of steam with a younger audience. If she could tap Brittany Howard, Amythyst Kiah, Gary Clark Jr., Stevie Nicks, St. Vincent, The Linda Lindas or HAIM — or get Jada Pinkett back into her metal roots — it would be a hell of an album. We’ve already heard her flirting with the genre on Lemonade’s “Don’t Hurt Yourself.” She’s got this.
Melinda Newman: The prevailing rumor is that Act III will be rock based and if her past Grammy Awards performances with Prince and Tina Turner are any indication, it should be another home run. She’s already shown on record— whether it’s 2016’s “Don’t Hurt Yourself” or Cowboy Carter’s “Ya Ya”— that she’s very comfortable in the rock world, though as she stresses on the new album, Beyoncé is way bigger than any one genre.
Andrew Unterberger: We want the funk. Give up the funk, Beyoncé!
For the second time in three weeks, a new standard has been set for single-week units moved in 2024. Two weeks after Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine debuted with a year-best 227,000 units, according to Luminate, Future and Metro Boomin have raised the bar to 251,000 with their first full-length collaborative album We Don’t Trust You.
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While the album easily tops the Billboard 200 with its impressive first-week mark — set almost entirely through streams, with the album’s 17 tracks racking up a combined 324.31 official on-demand U.S. streams in its debut frame — its explosive Kendrick Lamar team-up “Like That” bows atop the Billboard Hot 100, with four other songs from the project also entering the chart’s top 10. The song debuts with 59.6 million streams, the top mark for 2024 so far, with interest in it largely driven by Lamar’s fiery verse, which takes implied shots at fellow rap stars J. Cole and Drake.
What does the success of “Like That” and We Don’t Trust You tell us about hip-hop in 2024? And can the duo maintain their momentum through a second full-length project this year? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Future and Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You post’s the year’s best first-week tally this week with its 251,000 units moved, good for an easy No. 1 debut. Is this performance particularly meaningful to either Future’s or Metro’s careers, do you think, or is it mostly just par for the course for two of the most consistently successful figures of hip-hop’s last decade?
Jason Lipshutz: On paper, the quarter-million debut of We Don’t Trust You may seem like part for the course for two of hip-hop’s most bankable stars — but considering all of the chatter around “Like That,” the multiple other songs launched into the top 10 of the Hot 100, the still-mighty streaming performance of the album 10 days after its debut and the potential of an imminent sequel, Future and Metro Boomin have kicked off the spring in dominant fashion, and their album has become the biggest story in rap. Metro was already ascending as a front-line star thanks to Heroes & Villains and Future is no stranger to the top of the charts, but this project has functioned as a commanding moment in both of their respective careers, and feels particularly meaningful for their legacies.
Heran Mamo: The success of We Don’t Trust You reinforces Future and Metro’s consistency as chart-topping hitmakers, but the album’s performance is a little more meaningful to Future’s career. We Don’t Trust You marks his ninth No. 1 album, a feat he’s accomplished in 2015 (twice), 2016, 2017 (twice), 2019, 2020, 2022 and now 2024. This not only speaks to Future’s consistency, but also his longevity in the rap game and validates his continued ascent into rarefied air.
If the second Future x Metro album that’s dropping in two weeks also goes No. 1, that means he will not only have earned his 10th Billboard 200 No. 1 album, but that he will have also notched two No. 1 projects in the same year in three different years: 2015 (What a Time to Be Alive and DS2), 2017 (Future and Hndrxx) and 2024. He’d tie Elvis Presley and Eminem for the eighth-most No. 1 albums and be in fourth place among rappers, after Jay-Z (14), Drake (13) and Ye (11).
Michael Saponara: I’d lean Metro for sure. He made a name for himself carving out hits behind-the-scenes as a beat maestro, but now he’s elevated his brand to another level as a commercial superstar being billed as the lead artist on tracks/albums. Between the success of the Grammy-nominated Heroes & Villains and the visibility gained from helming the Spider-Verse soundtrack, Young Metro has shown versatility and can really take this winning streak in any direction he wants. With another bona fide solo project, Metro could overtake the lane DJ Khaled has occupied for the last 15 years or so if he pleases. It doesn’t sound like the train’s going to slow down either as MB promised at least three albums this year.
Damien Scott: Future and Metro’s We Don’t Trust You going No. 1 was expected. They are two of the biggest artists in rap right now, and this was one of the most anticipated albums of the past few years. Future and Metro are coming off the biggest solo projects of their careers with I Never Liked You and Heroes & Villains, respectfully. And, despite having worked together on numerous songs over the years, the two have never released an official joint project. (Sure, Metro produced the bulk of What a Time to Be Alive, but that vision was more Drake and Future’s own.) So, when Metro told Ebro the reason he didn’t have any songs on I Never Liked You was because he was saving tracks for a different Future project, everyone’s been amped to see what the two longtime collaborators cooked up together.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know that it’s necessarily that huge a breakthrough for either artist at this point in their respective careers, but it does show that Metro Boomin is an A-lister on par with all but maybe a handful of MCs in hip-hop right now. Lest we forget, Future’s full-length team-ups haven’t always gone so great: What a Time to Be Alive (with Drake) was something of a classic, sure, but when was the last time you listened to WRLD on Drugs (with Juice WRLD) or Pluto x Baby Pluto (with Lil Uzi Vert)? But there was little doubt that Future and Metro would make collaborative magic together — and indeed, passed even the 222,000 units that Future moved in the debut frame for his most recent solo effort, 2022’s I Never Liked You.
2. “Like That” also bows at No. 1 on the Hot 100 with the year’s best single-week streaming tally. Do you see the degree of its success as being mostly attributable to the firestorm surrounding Kendrick Lamar’s seeming callout of fellow superstars J. Cole and Drake? If Lamar’s verse had been similarly inspired but with less direct targeting, do you think the song still debuts at No. 1?
Jason Lipshutz: In the first few days of its release, I would have mostly chalked up its enormous streaming success to the curiosity factor around Kendrick’s verse… but now that the dust has settled a bit, “Like That” has established itself as a sledgehammer of a single, even in its first half before K. Dot arrives. The “Everlasting Bass” lift, the zonked-out Future hook and the “Eazy-Duz-It” schoolyard sing-along all serve as prelude to its guest star’s fury; even without the thinly veiled shots, everything about the song hums along effectively. “Like That” would have fallen out of rotation if it was solely based around some inflammatory lines, but Future and Metro Boomin engineered a standout track around the disses.
Heran Mamo: Dot’s diss is undoubtedly the biggest reason why “Like That” had such a splashy No. 1 debut. And he’s a straight shooter with no time for subliminal targeting. Just go back and listen to Big Sean’s 2013 track “Control,” where Kendrick called out 11 rappers – including J. Cole, Drake and even Sean – by saying, “I’m usually homeboys with the same n—as I’m rhymin’ with/ But this is hip-hop, and them n—as should know what time it is/…. I got love for you all, but I’m tryna murder you n—as.” He’s kept that same energy for over a decade.
And while Dot has been nothing but direct, Drake has contained the sneak dissing to his Instagram captions (for now) — even though he and J. Cole have had prime opportunities to clap back more candidly during their It’s All a Blur Tour — Big As the What? Cole’s Dreamville Festival is coming up this weekend, so maybe we’ll hear something from either of them then. In Drake’s 2013 Billboard cover story, he didn’t have much to say and dismissed Dot’s diss on “Control.” “I didn’t really have anything to say about it. It just sounded like an ambitious thought to me. That’s all it was,” he said. “I know good and well that Kendrick’s not murdering me, at all, in any platform. So when that day presents itself, I guess we can revisit the topic.” Well, Aubrey, I believe the time has come.
Michael Saponara: I think there’s a good chance it still debuts at No. 1, but by not nearly as wide of a margin. “Like That” still would have been a standout on the collab effort but the massive buzz from K. Dot taking aim at Drizzy and Cole only boosted the track to another stratosphere. For Metro and Future, they were mostly competing with themselves — as “Type S–t” featuring Playboi Carti and Travis Scott would have been the other option heading for the top slot.
Damien Scott: “Like That” debuting at No. 1 on the Hot 100 is very likely due to Kendrick going at Drake and J. Cole. That’s not to say the song needed the verse. The track was already a standout on the album before Kendrick’s verse started. As soon as you heard Future sliding over the “Everlasting Bass” sample, you knew the song was going to be special. The Kendrick verse was just the icing on the cake. There’s an argument to be made that Future’s verses are better but, come on — this is rap. There’s no denying how exciting a good battle is. Especially when it involves the best in the game. It’s rare when a rap diss is also a great song. You can count them on your fingers and have some digits to spare. So, it’s not surprising people went so crazy for it that it topped the charts.
Andrew Unterberger: The year’s-best marks wouldn’t have happened without the drama, I don’t think, but a blistering Future & Metro Boomin song with a rare fire-breathing cameo from Kendrick Lamar? That certainly sounds like a recipe for a No. 1 to me, almost regardless of subject matter. The fact that “Like That” is actually good is as important as the fact that it started the year’s biggest hip-hop s–tstorm, certainly.
3. Between Megan Thee Stallion’s “Hiss” and “Like That,” we’ve now seen two rap diss tracks debut at No. 1 in 2024, where at this point last year we still hadn’t had a single rap song of any kind reach the chart’s apex. Why do you think beef is moving the needle like this in 2024 — and do you agree with Metro that the success of song and single here is a sign that hip-hop is alive and well?
Jason Lipshutz: Celebrity gossip is always going to be highly valued currency: regardless of the medium, “Did you see what THIS famous person said about THAT famous person?” remains a vital component in popular culture. Rap beef is obviously not a novel concept, although the A-list players involved in both “Hiss” and “Like That” are enough to transcend hardcore hip-hop fans and reach casual listeners who want to crane their necks and see what’s going on. And the fact that modern rap contains such larger-than-life personalities that the greater population is interested when they’re fighting speaks to how healthy popular hip-hop is right now.
Heran Mamo: It’s damn near impossible not to be tuned into beef if you’re a rap fan. Songs like “Hiss” and “Like That” will have you sitting on your couch, snacking on popcorn and scrolling through your phone to see which rapper is taking shots next and who they’re targeting and how it’s going to escalade. Diss tracks evoke larger conversations not just online but also IRL, and those who need to be up to speed on what’s happening inevitably have to listen to the songs that ignited it all, which have allowed “Hiss” and “Like That” to shoot to No. 1.
This level of competitiveness and s–t-talking is at the core of hip-hop’s spirit, so I definitely agree with Metro that the genre is alive and well. We’re 14 weeks into the year, and out of the nine Hot 100 No. 1 songs we’ve had, four have been rap songs: “Lovin on Me” by Jack Harlow, “Hiss,” “Carnival” by ¥$: Ye and Ty Dolla Sign feat. Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti, and “Like That.” Rap is off to a great start in 2024, especially compared to where it was at this point in 2023, so I have high hopes for the genre.
Michael Saponara: Controversy sells. Hip-hop has been built on its fair share of historic feuds over the years and while the landscape of rap beef has changed its warfare tactics with the introduction of social media, fans are always going to indulge when the competitive juices get flowing in battle. It seems like social media is extending the shelf life of diss records at times with beef maintaining a buzz in the culture longer than traditional songs, which feel more disposable than ever. Hip-hop is definitely “alive and well,” with three rap albums and four different rap songs reaching No. 1 on the Billboard 200 and Hot 100 charts after what felt like a possible slip thanks to a quieter 2023 commercially.
Damien Scott: Social media has also played a big part in moving rap away from lyrical sparring. Instead of throwing on a beat and making a song, a lot of artists now just take to Instagram or TikTok or X to tell their fans why they’re better than their competition. So, when an artists actually do engage in a real battle — especially the biggest rap artists in the world — people’s ears perk up and fans get excited. I don’t know if I agree that it’s a sign that hip-hop is alive and well, after all, these guys have been around for at least 15 years. Meg is the youngest out of all of them at 29. That said, it is a sign that all is not lost. Hopefully, younger artists see the success of these songs and see that some of the traditional elements of the genre are worth saving.
Andrew Unterberger: Rumors of rap’s demise have long been greatly exaggerated — just because hip-hop isn’t displaying the cartoonish level of dominance it did in 2018 doesn’t mean it isn’t still easily the biggest genre in popular music. But is this particular evidence of hip-hop being in a good, healthy place? I dunno. Certainly, it never hurts to have the genre providing music’s biggest action of the season, but the fact that all the names involved in this particular drama are ones who’ve been part of rap’s ruling class for a decade already, at least partially reheating old beefs, doesn’t strike me as the most important indicator of the genre’s current vitality. When we see credible 25-and-under challengers to the throne mixing it up with the so-called Big Three, that’s when I’ll really be excited for hip-hop’s alive-and-wellness.
4. While “Hiss” was able to achieve tremendous first-week excitement, it was not able to sustain it: within a month and a half, it was off the Hot 100 entirely. Do you see “Like That” having a similar trajectory, or do you think it’s in it for the long haul?
Jason Lipshutz: Long haul, for sure. Not only is Kendrick Lamar’s verse on “Like That” a more explosive takedown than Megan’s disses, but the song around it is more compelling than “Hiss”; plus, the early streaming returns in its second week suggest that “Like That” is still earning plenty of plays even as the controversy has quieted down a bit. Although it’s only been a week and a half, I think “Like That” has a chance to be one of the biggest hits of 2024.
Heran Mamo: If the beef continues and intensifies, “Like That” could have a longer run on the Hot 100. I’ve seen a lot of TikTok videos of fans praising Metro’s expert sample of Rodney-O and Joe Cooley’s 1986 track “Everlasting Bass,” so they’ve found other elements of the song (outside of Kendrick’s headline-making verse) to hold onto. But I’ve also seen a lot of Photoshopped rap Avengers posters on the internet that suggest “Like That” has initiated a larger war, which suggests it could have longevity.
I’m curious to see if there’s going to be another buzzier track on their upcoming second album. At this point, the only thing that’s going to be bigger than a Kendrick Lamar-featuring diss track against Drake and J. Cole is a track with 21 Savage that solidifies which side he’s on, considering that’s what a lot of people have been wondering about, given the rapper’s tight-knit relationship with both Metro and Drake.
Michael Saponara: “Like That” is going to stick around for the long haul as I expect We Don’t Trust You to remain a commercial juggernaut for the foreseeable future. The only thing that could be tricky here is Metro and Future outdoing themselves with another project on the way in a couple of weeks. The Nicki Minaj-Megan Thee Stallion feud burned bright and burned fast. With Megan releasing “Hiss” independently and the serpentine-themed track not really catching on at radio (No. 40 peak on the R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay Chart), it didn’t have the staying power for a mainstream hit.
Damien Scott: Again, “Like That” is a great song despite the Kendrick verse. Because it’s already getting radio play, playlist placements — and, according to some anecdotal evidence, getting spun in the club — there’s a good chance of this song sticking around. Even if it falls from number one, I think it will stay in the top 10 as people anticipate a response from Drake and J. Cole. “Hiss,” while a good song, didn’t have the momentum “Like That” now enjoys, likely because many didn’t expect much to come of Megan’s beef with Nicki Minaj.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’ll stick around — but I also thought that about “Hiss,” and was quickly proven wrong, so I’m a little more hesitant to be so bullish this time around. I also would’ve pegged “Texas Hold ‘Em” and then “Carnival” as long-lasting No. 1s, and they seem to be tapping out at a combined three weeks on top. There’s just a lot going on this year, with more big names and big songs getting into the game every week, and folks seem to be moving on from last week’s news a little quicker than they have the past couple years.
5. A second full-length teamup is supposedly due from Future & Metro later this month. Do you think they can build on this excitement and do even better the second time out, or is some commercial recession inevitable coming so soon after the first time?
Jason Lipshutz: I’d expect some commercial recession, but who knows! Maybe there’s another song on Part II that’s even more incendiary than “Like That,” or something that comments on the existing controversy around Kendrick’s verse. Topping the biggest debut week of the year a few weeks later is a tall order, but depending on what’s actually on the album, anything is possible.
Heran Mamo: Putting out two full-length albums only three weeks apart is ambitious, and outside of “Like That,” I would’ve liked to see other standout tracks like “Type Shit” cook a little more before serving fans an entirely different menu. However, dropping back-to-back projects is a signature Future move: He had a legendary run in 2014-2015 when he released three mixtapes in five months – Monster, Beast Mode and 56 Nights – that successfully set him up for his culturally influential DS2 album, which earned Pluto his first Billboard 200 No. 1 album. Two months later, he completed his victory lap when he teamed up with Drake (RIP to that duo) for What A Time To Be Alive, which Metro executive produced, and it earned him his second No. 1 album. He did it again in 2017, when he dropped Future and Hndrxx one week apart from each other, and both topped the Billboard 200. Given his track record, the new set could one-up We Don’t Trust You.
Michael Saponara: A minor commercial recession seems inevitable with the years-long anticipation behind We Don’t Trust You and Kendrick Lamar throwing gas on the fire taking it to new heights. Although, I could envision a scenario where the hype is through the roof if Drake somehow responds to “Like That” in the time until the next project’s arrival, addressing the OVO static with Future and Metro.
Damien Scott: Some commercial recession is inevitable. Just look at the last time Future released back-to-back albums. In 2017, when he dropped Future and Hndrxx a week apart, the second of the two, the more impassioned Hndrxx didn’t perform as well as the first offering. Granted, Future, in a way similar to We Don’t Trust You, was helped greatly by a viral Metro-produced single, “Mask Off.” The song took off on social media becoming a meme and inspiring tons of TikTok videos. None of the singles from Hndrxx enjoyed the same sort of virality. Without another hit that completely and utterly dominates the conversation, it’s safe to say we’ll see a dip, even if slight, in the performance of the upcoming project.
Andrew Unterberger: Really depends what they have up their sleeve for Vol. 2. Doesn’t seem like Future and Metro would unleash a first volume with as big a secret weapon as “Like That” buried in its tracklist and not have something similarly major planned as the ace in the hole for its follow up. Will be hard to compete with the consensus best rapper of his generation calling out the unquestionable biggest rapper of his generation, but I’d bet it’ll still be something to capture a lot of eyes and ears.
While Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine spends a second week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this week, a pair of new releases check into the top five below it: country star Kacey Musgraves‘ Deeper Well, and Justin Timberlake‘s Everything I Thought It Was.
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Musgraves’ latest debuts at No. 2 on the chart, with 97,000 units moved — the best first-week performance of her career in units, and her highest debut on the listing since debut LP Same Trailer Different Park also hit No. 2 in 2013. Meanwhile, Timberlake’s first set in six years bows at No. 4 with 67,000 units, making it his first official album since 2002’s Justified not to take the top spot.
How are the two artists most likely feeling about their respective albums’ debut performances this week? And which of the two sets are we most likely to return to throughout the rest of 2024? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 – below Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine in its second week, but tied for Musgraves’ best-ever chart placement, and with her best first-week tally to date (97,000). On a scale from 1-10, how excited do you think she is with that debut-week performance?
Hannah Dailey: I’ll give it a 9. A No. 1 album would’ve been an exciting first for Kacey, but debuting as high as No. 2 while in competition with Eternal Sunshine and Everything I Thought It Was is still excellent, especially six albums deep into her career.
Kyle Denis: It’s gotta be a 10, right? Kacey is the biggest winner of the week in my eyes. She’s spent years toiling outside of the Nashville apparatus and her returns have gotten more and more impressive with each subsequent release. If the success of Deeper Well tells us anything, it’s that Kacey has cultivated one of the most loyal fanbases in contemporary country music. There was no hit single – or as close to a “hit” as a Kacey track can be – nor was there an accompanying music film or flashy awards show performance.
Deeper Well sold almost solely off the back of fan loyalty and good music. Moreover, the new LP is the follow-up to Star-Crossed, another Billboard 200 top 10 effort that was met with decidedly more mixed reactions than Golden Hour or Deeper Well. Star-Crossed and its film of the same name employed an aesthetic closer to mainstream pop than any of Kacey’s previous records, and she was able to retain the new fans she earned from that era and fold them into her larger fan base, resulting in the best first-week unit total of her career with Deeper Well. And for what it’s worth, Deeper Well and Eternal Sunshine had a very close race – this is a win for both ladies.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. A couple points get knocked off for getting so close-but-not-quite-there to her first No. 1 album and six-figure equivalent albums unit showing, but for Musgraves, this debut — with a relatively muted project, and nothing resembling a crossover hit single on it — demonstrates her continued commercial power as a genre-straddling singer-songwriter. The top of the Billboard 200 was crowded this week, and for Deeper Well to cut through the competition and earn the top debut should be a very encouraging sign for Musgraves.
Jessica Nicholson: 8. When she previously earned No. 2 album debut on the Billboard 200, it was for her debut project Same Trailer, Different Park, which was led by her top 10 Country Airplay hit single “Merry Go Round.” She earned her first Billboard Hot 100 chart-topper with the Zach Bryan collab “I Remember Everything” last year and the song has had impressive staying power on the chart, further elevating her visibility in the leadup to the Deeper Well release. But none of the songs released leading up to Deeper Well quite reached that same bell-ringing chart height, and she has strong competition from Grande on the albums chart. Given all of the above, she’s had a stellar debut week for Deeper Well.
Andrew Unterberger: Probably an 8. To still be going up in numbers not just more than a decade after her debut but now a half-decade after her album of the year Grammy win for Golden Hour indicates that Musgraves’ audience is both impressively wide and absolutely in it for the long haul. Would’ve been nice to finally get that No. 1 though.
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2. Musgraves has long bucked the system when it comes to going the traditional routes of promotion for a country artist – but over a decade into her career, her popularity still seems to be growing. What do you think the biggest factor is behind Deeper Well scoring her best first-week debut yet?
Hannah Dailey: I think that Kacey is simply a really authentic person and a truly gifted storyteller, which keeps people curious about the ever-changing perspectives she offers in her music. I also think that Golden Hour, especially after winning AOTY, solidified her as an “album artist,” so people are always going to be hyped to see how she crafts a full-package experience with each LP.
Kyle Denis: I’ll reemphasize that Deeper Well landed as a return to form of sorts. Where Star-Crossed found her flirting with legitimate pop stardom (visual album, headlining arena tour, VMAs performance), Deeper Well is sonically and aesthetically closer to the earthier vibe of Golden Hour and Same Trailer Different Park. When you combine the new Star-Crossed fans with an already fervent home base secured from the country star’s first three LPs, you’re left with a large audience that is invested in Kacey’s world-building. There’s also something to be said about the new fans she may have courted thanks to her and Zach Bryan’s Billboard Hot 100-topping “I Remember Everything.”
Jason Lipshutz: One could point to Deeper Well sounding a little like a course correction back to the comforts of Golden Hour following the more urgent Star-Crossed, or to the fact that “I Remember Everything” with Zach Bryan gave Musgraves her first Hot 100 chart-topper while undoubtedly expanding her audience. I think it’s simpler than that: at this point in her career, Musgraves has developed a loyal listenership that transcends traditional country lines and is going to show up for her songwriting when she returns with a new project every few years. As long as Musgraves continues at the quality and release rate she’s been at for a while, she’ll be an artist that a lot of music fans will want to grow old with.
Jessica Nicholson: As music audiences have become increasingly niche, Musgraves hasn’t wavered from knowing who she is as an artist and has a keen sense of what her audience wants. A key part of Musgraves’ brand has always been her complex, introspective, vivid style of songwriting, which also happens to fall right in line with what has been popular among mainstream listeners over the past year, as evidenced by the success of Noah Kahan and Zach Bryan — both of whom Musgraves has collaborated with recently. She also smartly sees the continued resurgence of vinyl, and released nine vinyl variants of Deeper Well, including eight different colors of vinyl variants, which also boost those sales numbers.
Andrew Unterberger: It is indeed good timing for Musgraves, who is benefitting not only from vinyl’s increased value as a collector’s item among fans, but from country’s and folk’s ever-growing slices of the streaming pie — and from her recent allegiances with two of the biggest beneficiaries of the latter boon, Zach Bryan and Noah Kahan. She’s a thoughtful artist with a savvy sense of how to connect with her fans, and those are the artists who usually last the longest at her current level.
3. Justin Timberlake’s Everything I Thought It Was bows at No. 4 this week, with 67,000 first-week units – less than a quarter of the 293,000 units moved by his previous effort, Man of the Woods, in its debut frame. Are those numbers higher, lower, or about where you would’ve expected for Timberlake’s latest?
Hannah Dailey: They’re lower than I expected, but not that much lower. I assumed that his most dedicated fans, plus his appeal to *NSYNC nostalgia with “Paradise,” would carry him a little bit more than it did. At the same time, performers can only last so long at the top without changing things up artistically, something he seems either reluctant or incapable of doing.
Kyle Denis: Lower. I wasn’t expecting anything all that impressive – given that no one seems to really care about “Selfish” and that his reputation is in the gutter right now – but Justin Timberlake not being able to clear at least 100,000 units in any circumstance is still a shocker.
Jason Lipshutz: Lower. A drop-off in units compared to Man of the Woods was expected, considering that it’s been more than a half-decade since Timberlake’s last album and that Everything I Thought It Was wasn’t preceded by a particularly big hit single. Yet after all the press that JT completed rolling out the album, the new *NSYNC song on its track list and surprise reunion ahead of its release, the arena tour coming soon and the fact that it’s still Justin freakin’ Timberlake… maybe the album rebounds a bit as the tour picks up, but 67,000 units couldn’t have been the expectation for Week 1.
Jessica Nicholson: Everything I Thought It Was comes six years after Man of the Woods, which earned two top 10 hits on the Hot 100, while the lead up to Everything only saw one top 20 hit on the Hot 100. Still, given that Man of the Woods debuted at No. 1 (and given Timberlake’s history as one of pop music’s biggest artists through his time with ‘NSYNC and his solo work in the early ’00s), his first-week numbers for the new album came in lower than I would have expected.
Andrew Unterberger: About where I would have expected, which probably tells you all you need to know about how Justin Timberlake’s last decade has gone.
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4. After a very bad half-decade of press that reached a new low with the revelations from Britney Spears’ recent memoir, Timberlake desperately needed an album that at least changed the conversation about him or moved him out of his past somewhat. Do you think this album accomplishes that?
Hannah Dailey: No. If anything, I think JT was trying to say, “Look at me, I can still deliver all the same things you loved about me 20 years ago!” with this era. The problem is that people don’t love or even want those same things anymore. The approach backfired in that it solidified him deeper as the persona people have grown less tolerant of in recent years.
Kyle Denis: Absolutely not. The album would have accomplished that if people engaged with the music, but it’s clear that nobody really cares about it. “Selfish” — which was nearly overshadowed by a decade-old Britney Spears song of the same name – has yet to surpass the No. 19 Hot 100 peak it notched in its opening week, and none of the album’s tracks have emerged as a potential second single. Even Man of the Woods squeaked out two top 10 hits!
This is all coming after songs with Calvin Harris (“Stay with Me”), SZA (“The Other Side”) and Nelly Furtado & Timbaland (“Keep Going Up”) that went nowhere. People haven’t been connecting with JT’s music for some time now. In the case of this specific album, there’s certainly good material on it, but “good” just isn’t enough for his current situation.
At best, the Forget Tomorrow tour – which, arguably, wouldn’t be possible without Everything I Thought It Was – will do more to change the conversation around JT than the music. With a total gross rumored to end up somewhere around $140 million and challenge for his most successful tour yet, JT will have plenty of time to redirect the public conversation with some good press. Barring a one-off surprise hit, it might be time to say that JT is entering his legacy act era as an artist who can sell tickets, but not necessarily new albums.
Jason Lipshutz: Yes and no. While Everything I Thought It Was is a solid reminder of Timberlake’s pop panache and showmanship, the new album really needed a new hit or huge chart bow to fully transcend the recent negative headlines. Credit to JT for looking inward a few times on Everything I Thought It Was, as well as serving up the type of disco-funk grooves that loyal listeners can enjoy, but the narrative here is going to be less about the art and more about its commercial returns.
Jessica Nicholson: Including his ‘NSYNC bandmates on the album, and reuniting with them for a performance during his one night only show at The Wiltern in Los Angeles certainly sparked a social media frenzy. But overall, this album doesn’t seem to shift things forward — sonically or narratively. Instead, it seems to rely heavily on the mid-2000s pop and R&B sounds he’s known for, and barely seems address his personal life at all (with a notable exception in the album opener “Memphis”), when nodding to personal events now seems de rigueur for so many artists.
Andrew Unterberger: Nope. I feel for Timberlake a tiny bit because I’m not totally sure what he even could have done to change people’s perceptions of him on this album, short of a jarring sonic left turn or a harrowingly introspective lyrical focus. Maybe a greater artist would’ve at least attempted one of those, but Timberlake clearly wasn’t ready to close the door yet on his days as a central force in pop music, which is understandable. Nevertheless, this album may end up closing it for him.
5. Which of the two albums do you think you’ll be revisiting more as the year goes on?
Hannah Dailey: Deeper Well. 100%.
Kyle Denis: Deeper Well. Kacey’s new record will be evergreen for life’s quieter, more introspective moments. JT’s record has several strong songs, but they ultimately feel forgettable because his performance across the album is tragically devoid of the sauce that made LPs like The 20/20 Experience such triumphs.
Jason Lipshutz: Deeper Well, although the best moments on Everything I Thought It Was have been enjoyable to revisit in the first couple of weeks since its release (and I am a well-documented Man of the Woods defender, who has returned to that one quite a bit). But as we enter springtime, I am ready to listen to Musgraves’ cozy tales of Saturn returning, lazy days and dinners with friends, birds chirping around me all the while.
Jessica Nicholson: Musgraves has always crafted music that feels intimate, relatable, timeless — even groovy when called for (see “High Horse” and “Justified,” among others). The laid-back, centered vibe and folky instrumentation of Deeper Well, along with the themes of peace, self-improvement and dismantling old habits that no longer suit her, make this a comfort-filled, if slightly sleepy at moments, listening experience — one that will warrant returning to repeatedly.
Andrew Unterberger: Probably neither, in truth — can’t say I’ve found either album to be particularly resonant so far. But Musgraves’ album is pleasant, and significantly shorter, so I guess that one.
March has ended up a much more crowded pop month in 2024 than it has the past few years, with new albums delivered or expected from big names like Justin Timberlake, Kacey Musgraves, Shakira, Future x Metro Boomin and Beyoncé. But up first among the A-listers was Ariana Grande, and her first-week performance should set the star standard for the rest of the month, if not even longer.
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Grande debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week with her recently released seventh album Eternal Sunshine, moving 227,000 units in the set’s first week of availability — easily outshining the 149,000 first-week units previously moved by Ye & Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 1, 2024’s prior high-water mark. Meanwhile, the set’s new single “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” also debuts atop the Hot 100, making for the album’s second No. 1, following the fast-starting, quickly receding “Yes, And?”
How should Ariana feel about her big debut week? And will “We Can’t Be Friends” have better chart endurance than its predecessor? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Ariana Grande debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 227,000 units moved — up about 30% from the 174,000 Positions bowed with in 2020, though still down from the 360,000 Thank U, Next debuted with the year before. On a scale from 1-10, how excited do you think Grande should be with that entrance?
Katie Atkinson: 10. Any time a veteran artist builds on their last release – in this case, selling even more than she did with her most recent Billboard 200 No. 1 album – it’s cause for celebration. Her fanbase clearly missed her and didn’t go anywhere, and in fact grew in numbers this time around. So she didn’t match her Thank U, Next numbers… yes, and? This is excellent news for Ari all around.
Kyle Denis: 9. Eternal Sunshine pulled first-week numbers that are comparable to that of the two albums she released when she was arguably at a popularity peak in terms of her social media presence and general media coverage. Furthermore, Eternal Sunshine arrived on the back of considerable controversy regarding Grande’s personal life, as well as a lead single that garnered fairly lukewarm reception. Despite those obstacles, Grande pulled off the year’s best sales week yet with an album on which she wrote nearly every song by herself. That’s got to feel pretty amazing – especially for an artist who has spoken at length about how much Eternal Sunshine feels like a new chapter in her life and career.
Lyndsey Havens: 10. Regardless of units, I think the cultural imprint of Eternal Sunshine is almost (if not just) as significant as Thank U, Next. Plus, Thank U had the added boost of following Sweetener — which likely led to a larger first-week sum, as it arrived within six months of its predecessor and continued to offer a behind-the-scenes look at Ari’s most front-facing era. With Eternal Sunshine, the first week showing is impressive for a variety of factors: the rollout was swift, with only one single in “Yes, And?” arriving ahead of the album’s release; Ari herself has been somewhat out of the spotlight – despite inspiring countless headlines – as she filmed Wicked; and she was selective with press leading up to its arrival. All in all, a No. 1 debut is always something worth celebrating – and even if its opening week had fallen short, Ari made this album for herself. As she declared in “Yes, And?”: “I’m so done with caring with you think.”
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Eternal Sunshine follows the longest recording gap in her career, and while lead single “Yes, And?” debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100 in January, the song hasn’t functioned like a months-long top 10 smash on the level of something like the Thank U, Next title track. With those factors in mind, Grande returning with the biggest debut of the years so far, and an even stronger first-week performance than that of Positions, has to feel highly encouraging, and the confirmation of a superstar who still generates a ton of excitement even after a relatively prolonged break.
Andrew Unterberger: Without “Yes, And?” and its relatively muted reception, I would’ve said 7. Following it, I might say 9. We’ll split the difference and say 8 overall here: It’s a very fine first-week total that feels even finer since Grande looked at least slightly at risk of coming in soft following the somewhat iffy response to its lead single.
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2. This album was promoted somewhat unusually compared to Grande’s other recent releases, considering that it was announced months in advance, but only with one new song dropped pre-release — the No. 1-debuting but somewhat coolly received “Yes, And?” Do you think the first-week debut justifies the promotional strategy, or did she potentially leave units on the table?
Katie Atkinson: It justifies the strategy, because her fans consumed almost everything all at once, instead of skipping over the pre-release tracks they’d already heard. The album’s commercial success appears to be the icing on top of an artistically and emotionally fulfilling rollout for Grande, too, given that the project is themed around the end of her marriage and the start of her new relationship, so she’s able to deliver it as a complete work from start to finish. “Sharing it has re-opened a lot of little and big feelings alike and it has been an emotional week in many ways!” she wrote on Instagram to celebrate her No. 1 debut, “but your overwhelmingly loving response to it all has made me feel such joyful, human connection and comfort.” Much of that response was possible by saving almost the full album for release day.
Kyle Denis: Absolutely — to both, kinda. There’s no doubt in mind that with a stronger-performing lead single, Eternal Sunshine could have at least crossed the 250,000 mark. Nonetheless, I do think the limited appearances and intentional focus on the music is a campaign much better suited for 2024 Ariana Grande than, say, 2014 Ariana Grande.
Lyndsey Havens: I’ve always been a fan of a highly anticipated album being preceded by one track – and not even its best one. My guess if that Ari may have not cared all that much about her album’s debut week, and instead of worrying about leaving units on the table she was more concerned with making an album that would last. It seems as if the rollout plan is just heating up, rather than coming to a slow stop – and to me, that’s a strategy that only a seasoned pop player can pull off so well.
Jason Lipshutz: The first-week performance of Eternal Sunshine — plus the fact that both its lead single and second single hit No. 1 on the Hot 100 — makes the rollout look like a stroke of genius. Grande was able to generate excitement around her return with “Yes, And?,” then preserve a lot of that anticipation around the rest of the album; “We Can’t Be Friends” was a clear standout upon its release, and a new music video was locked and loaded in order to help Grande score back-to-back chart-toppers. Of course, none of this works if Grande didn’t come correct with the new music, but as far as releasing that music for maximum impact, I’m not sure how you could have drawn it up better.
Andrew Unterberger: It maybe validated it, but it definitely rescued it. “Yes, And?” was a fine-enough “I’m back” single, but it probably wasn’t quite the undeniable smash that fans were hoping for after what was essentially a three-year absence for Grande. To see that song quickly tumble out of the top 10 and decline to follow it up was really putting herself at risk if the album didn’t deliver immediately. But it did — helps of course that the album is very, very good — and now the whole thing seems like it’s unfolded exactly as it should have. All part of Grande’s brilliant design? Only she knows for sure, but it doesn’t really matter at this point anyway.
3. Eternal Sunshine ultimately outperformed most early first-week projections, largely because consumption of the album — in particular lead single “We Can’t Be Friends” — continued rising past the weekend. Why do you think the album managed to maintain its momentum at a time when albums so often begin fading almost immediately after release?
Katie Atkinson: There was a lot of discourse online about what each song was about and what it said about her relationships, old and new. And for “We Can’t Be Friends” specifically, there’s the music video that takes the album’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind inspiration to its literal conclusion by re-creating vignettes from the film with Ariana stepping for Kate Winslet and Evan Peters stepping in for Jim Carrey. It bears repeat viewings for how beautiful and very, very sad it is. (And as the YouTube commenters have pointed out, it’s nice to see a “playful/smiley” version of Peters, who typically plays very dark characters.)
Kyle Denis: It’s not the most mind-blowing answer, but Eternal Sunshine is simply a great album that gets better and reveals more layers (both musically and conceptually) with each listen – and not too many mainstream pop albums are doing that currently. Grande also used to be notorious for how she would shower fans with snippets and teases months before releasing an album. With none of that happening this time around, fans had no choice but to sit with the album and immerse themselves in the world Grande and her collaborators crafted.
Lyndsey Havens: I think it’s directly correlated to the fact that projections were low for this album. On a musical level, it’s clear that Eternal Sunshine is Ari at her most confident – each song, especially lead single “Yes, And?” proves as much. And as it pertains to the album’s rollout, that self-assuredness has seemed to carry over. It’s as if Ariana knew she was sitting on gold – it was only a matter of time until everyone else saw the sparkle, too.
Jason Lipshutz: Multiple factors could have helped Eternal Sunshine sustain its streaming numbers beyond its first weekend, but the main reason is the most obvious one: the album is really, really good. Eternal Sunshine has been met with acclaim by both Arianators and overall pop fans alike, and along with immediate interest in “We Can’t Be Friends” as a breakout single, fans kept returning to, and gobbling up, the album on streaming services. The album outpacing its early projections bodes well for its long-term commercial health — I could see Eternal Sunshine hanging around the top 10 of the Billboard 200 for a while based on this type of universal embrace.
Andrew Unterberger: Grande’s extremely busy and visible weekend no doubt helped a good amount: Following the release of Sunshine that Friday, she brought “Friends” (and albummate “Imperfect for You”) to SNL on Saturday, while also acting in a couple sketches, then appeared at the Oscars to present best original song with her Wicked co-star Cynthia Erivo on Sunday. For a star who felt like she’d largely been absent for the past three years to suddenly be everywhere again undoubtedly made sure she was on everyone’s mind throughout the rest of the week, and no doubt helped those first-week streams a decent amount.
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4. While “Yes, And?” bowed at No. 1 at the Hot 100, it also slipped out of the top 10 two weeks after, not returning to the top tier until this week (when it rebounds to No. 10). Do you think “Friends” will follow a similar trajectory of sliding post-release, or will it be more enduring as a hit than “Yes, And?” has thusfar proven to be?
Katie Atkinson: Well, if you’re asking for me personally, I love “Yes, And?” and its Paula Abdul-indebted music video a lot. But after hearing the full project, “We Can’t Be Friends” feels far more in line with the theme of the album. So while I hope there is a world where “Yes, And?” endures, I will totally understand if the song that’s more emblematic of the album is what fans associate with it in years to come.
Kyle Denis: I think “Friends” will dwarf “Yes, And?” pretty easily. It’s much more easily digestible from a sonic and lyrical standpoint, Grande’s SNL performance was stellar, and the track’s stability throughout its first week signals that audiences are genuinely connecting with it. Although it’s a highly competitive spring — with Cowboy Carter, Tortured Poets and more Vultures LPs on the way — I see “Friends” sticking around the Hot 100 top 10 well into the summer. Hopefully by then, however, “The Boy Is Mine” will have emerged as the album’s next single.
Lyndsey Havens: I think now that we have the full Eternal Sunshine package, both songs could sustain top-tier placements – though I do think “Friends” is more likely to stick around the top 10, especially as Ari continues to reveal more behind the scenes clips online. And while I love “Friends,” I think the question isn’t is if it will be more enduring than “Yes, And?” but if it will be the most enduring track on the album at all. Grande also chose album standout “Imperfect for You” to perform on Saturday Night Live, a stunning ballad that has yet to reach its full mainstream potential, and we’re now seeing stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Megan Thee Stallion sing along to a sped-up version of “The Boy is Mine” on TikTok. All is to say, I think the genius of this album is that there isn’t one true standout song – we need them all.
Jason Lipshutz: “We Can’t Be Friends” sounds like the defining hit of this Ariana Grande era, a synth fantasia with blurring relationship lines and a big, heartfelt hook. “Yes, And?” has grown on me quite a bit, but its tone is slightly off-center compared to the rest of Eternal Sunshine; “Friends” captures the main ideas and sound of an album that fans have immediately championed, and I think that will help the single find more chart success than Grande’s previous No. 1 hit.
Andrew Unterberger: It does feel like “Friends” is a bit more of a pop bullseye than “Yes, And?,” and we should see that reflected in its chart performance. I don’t know if its run at No. 1 will ultimately be that much longer than the one week for “Yes, And?” however — the turnover on the charts this year has been much more consistent than it was early in the past couple years, and my recent prediction of a long run atop the Hot 100 for “Texas Hold ‘Em” already appears to have been proven over-enthused.
5. It’s been about a week and a half — where, roughly, do you rank Eternal Sunshine within Grande’s catalog so far?
Katie Atkinson: I would probably put it at No. 3 or 4 at the moment. I love that Ari took a big autobiographical swing on this one, but I might have needed a few dance floor moments to move it up in my ranking.
Kyle Denis: No. 2. Give it until the fall, and we just might have a new No. 1.
Lyndsey Havens: This is the question I have grappled with the most. On one hand, I have always considered my top album Sweetener and Thank U, Next to be an unsplittable pair, coming in at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. But the thing about Eternal Sunshine is that, to me, it is so good that I think it has done the impossible: broken the dynamic duo apart. Which is to say, Eternal Sunshine is looking at a runner-up spot to my forever No. 1 Sweetener, creating a bittersweet reality for Thank U, Next.
Jason Lipshutz: In a seven-album race, it earns the bronze medal. Eternal Sunshine represents another mature, high-quality album from Grande that’s more consistently pleasing than Positions but comes up just short of the transcendent nature of the Sweetener/Thank U, Next one-two punch. No shame in that game, of course; taken as a whole, Grande’s albums output has been dizzyingly good since 2018, turning her from a reliable hitmaker to one of pop’s very elite.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s in the exact middle of the pack for me: richer and more considered than her first three sets, but not as sonically satisfying as Sweetener, as sublime as Positions or as emotionally striking as Thank U, Next. Regardless, Grande is undoubtedly in the midst of one of the great album runs for any pop artist this century — maybe any artist, period.
If the chart-topping first-week debut for Vultures 1 wasn’t sign enough that Kanye West was once again back at the mainstream’s center, three weeks later we get an even surer sign: “Carnival,” the set’s lead single, has ascended to pole position on the Billboard Hot 100 in its fourth week.
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It’s Kanye’s first No. 1 on the chart since 2011 — when he was featured on Katy Perry’s fourth consecutive Teenage Dream Hot 100-topper, “E.T.” — and his first as a lead artist since “Stronger” in 2007. (It’s also his first major hit since receiving extreme backlash for his repeat antisemitic comments, for which he posted an apology in Hebrew in December.) Meanwhile, it’s the second visit to the top for co-lead Ty Dolla $ign, following his appearance on Post Malone’s “Psycho” in 2018, and the first for both of its featured artists: Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid.
Who does the No. 1 mean the most to? And does mean Kanye’s back at the vanguard of pop music like he was during his biggest years? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. “Carnival” is not only the first Hot 100 No. 1 for Kanye West since 2011 — since 2007, if you don’t count his not-particularly-immortal appearance on Katy Perry’s “ET” — and by most measures, his first true smash in at least a half-decade. On a scale from 1-10, how important is it for him at his point in his career to have an old-fashioned HIT-hit like this?
Kyle Denis: I think it depends on how you look at it. Did Kanye need a true smash hit in 2024 to cement his overall legacy? Absolutely not. Did Kanye need a true smash hit in 2024 to re-establish himself as a viable commercial force (particularly in terms of singles) in the mainstream? Yes. So, let’s go with a 6.5-7.
Angel Diaz: Five? Ye is going to be polarizing whether his music is good or not. The old Kanye is gone and is never coming back. While I do think it’s cool to see him go No. 1 again, I’m not sure its’s going to matter in the grand scheme of things. I do think this is his best post Pablo album, though. Someone as talented as Mr. West will always have a puncher’s chance.
Carl Lamarre: If we’re speaking on Ye’s ego, a 10. Being able to dribble past his antisemitic comments and his feud with Adidas takes hall-of-fame precision. Not only did he land his 11th consecutive No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 with Vultures last month, but now he can hoist a No. 1 song on the Hot 100, all while playing the game as an independent artist. For someone as audacious as Ye, expect his turn-up and ego to match that same energy.
Michael Saponara: 6. I don’t think Ye necessarily needed a smash as he’s always going to be an influential figure in society’s mainstream and connect with his fan base. However, becoming the first rapper to earn a No. 1 in three different decades and doing it independently at 46 has turned heads and legitimized his methods to the madness creatively. If anything, the mainstream acclaim is only going to embolden his voice when it comes to future decisions, for better or worse. Even the haters have to respect what “Carnival” has accomplished without much radio play and playlisting in a genre that’s lacked serious hitmakers in recent years.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8. Obviously Kanye was going to be a major voice in music and culture for many years to come even if he never had another big pop hit — but having one, especially at a time when even major rappers are finding a lot more trouble scoring runaway hits than they maybe used to, shows that he still knows what really moves the mainstream in 2024. He’s certainly taking it as a major win himself, as evidenced by the ill-advised victory lapping he’s been doing on IG this week.
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2. While the headlines about “Carnival” will always be Kanye-focused first and foremost, three other artists also add a No. 1 to their tallies with the single: Ty Dolla $ign’s second, and the first for both Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid. Which of those three artists do you think has the most to gain from the song’s massive success?
Kyle Denis: Probably Carti. He’s had proper hits in the past but as he’s delved deeper into his own idiosyncratic rage rap sound, traditional hits have proven a bit more elusive for him. This is a good look for him as he prepares for his next record and his long-delayed Antagonist Tour. As for Ty and Rich the Kid, a No. 1 is a towering achievement no matter how you slice it, but neither performer is the kind of artist that *needs* to top the Billboard Hot 100 to retain their fanbase and interest in their music.
Angel Diaz: Carti 100 percent. He already has the youth and almost every new rapper these days is either influenced by him or is currently biting his style while sounding like “We got Playboi Carti music at home.” He should take advantage of this moment and drop the follow-up to his cult classic Whole Lotta Red, which is already four years old. Also, because we need more “schyeah” content.
Carl Lamarre: Rich the Kid with Ty coming in second. For many mainstream listeners, Rich’s most significant moments came during the 2017-2018 era when he unleashed “New Freezer” with Kendrick Lamar and “Plug Walk.” Though he had some highlights here and there, to the public eye, he drowned in oblivion until Ye tossed him a lifeline. The talent for Rich has always been there; he just needed the right opportunity, and on “Carnival,” he made the best out of it.
Michael Saponara: Rich The Kid has been hibernating from the charts the last few years and he’s caught a lifeline with “Carnival” which RTK deserves a lot more credit for than Rap Radar co-host Elliott Wilson seemed to be giving him, in my opinion. With a No. 1 hit to his name, Rich will have more eyeballs on him than usual, which wouldn’t have been the case without his Vultures standout feature. Spending time around Ye and Ty will be a positive from a creative perspective, and it makes sense they’re capitalizing on the momentum and executive-producing his forthcoming project.
Andrew Unterberger: Can only speak for myself here, but I certainly didn’t know that Rich the Kid still had the juice like that. Considering he’s only even touched the Hot 100 once this decade prior to “Carnival” — at No. 91 for precisely one week with the Lil Wayne collab “Feelin Like Tunechi” — I’m guessing he’s putting this No. 1 pretty high up on the updated CV.
3. Considering none of Ye’s past three projects have produced a breakout hit nearly on the level of “Carnival,” what do you think it is about this song that’s allowed it to achieve liftoff the way it has? Is there one thing in particular it does that puts it in league with past Kanye hits on this level?
Kyle Denis: It’s definitely the catchiest Kanye single since the Life of Pablo era. The gospel-tinged tracks on Jesus Is King were always going to be hard sells – even though “Follow God” debuted in the top 10 – and the biggest tracks on Donda had their hit potential marred by a messy release and a comparatively less favorable period of public opinion for the rapper.
Most importantly, however, Kanye tapped into youth culture with “Carnival” and took a literal back seat. He only has one verse on the song, while Carti (who has a massive cult following) and Rich the Kid take up most of the airtime. It feels like a latter-day Kanye record without containing too much of his actual voice; you don’t even hear Kanye at all on the part of the song that’s gained the most traction (the hook). By having rappers from a younger generation anchor “Carnival,” Kanye found the perfect primer for the song to be embraced by the TikTok streets, hence the plethora of trends that have helped the song stay viral on the platform. And, for what it’s worth, the general public sentiment towards Kanye has gotten a tiny bit kinder since his last LP.
Angel Diaz: Playboi Carti is the easy answer here too. The kids love that dude. The honest answer, though? It’s an anthem. The football goon chant, the production, the unexpected Rich the Kid feature, the way Ty floats during his verse, Kanye’s mid verse about being cancelled or whatever, and Carti kinda, sorta sounding like a mystery rapper all makes for an unusual banger.
Carl Lamarre: Even though it didn’t chart as high as “Carnival,” I thought “Follow God” was a banger and underappreciated. For the former, it’s a matter of everybody playing their position to a tee and allowing the record to morph into this behemoth. The song has such bounce that it can elevate anything vibe-wise, ranging from a mosh pit to an intense workout. It can adapt and thrive in any environment. Expect this song to be a festival gem and sports arena go-to.
Michael Saponara: I think “Carnival” builds off the stadium rage Ye initiated with Yeezus, which superstar artists of today like Travis Scott and Playboi Carti have carried the torch for and engrained it in rap’s mainstream. Those two, specifically, are members of the West family tree, and were clearly influenced by the futurism and rebelliousness of Yeezus. While Ye is often ahead of the curve, “Carnival” was digestible enough for hip-hop fans to spread like wildfire.
Andrew Unterberger: Same thing that’s been true from Steam to Zombie Nation to Usher: Never underestimate the power of a good stadium chant. Especially considering most of Kanye’s new material literally makes its debut in stadium surroundings these days, it’s a natural fit that a bunch of soccer hooligans leading a partially R-rated singalong would go over with “We Will Rock You”-sized returns for him in 2024.
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4. “Carnival” has proven far and away to be the biggest breakout success from Vultures 1 so far. Do you think there’s likely to be another major hit from Vultures — and if so which track do you think is the most likely candidate?
Kyle Denis: In my head, “Do It” is the next hit from Vultures. But that all depends on how quickly the other two Vultures projects arrive.
Angel Diaz: It’s a toss up between “Paid” and “Vultures” for me. When was the last time we got a payday anthem? I feel like artists would mention getting paid on a Friday just in time for weekend club shenanigans in every other song back in the day. Johnny Kemp’s “Just Got Paid” immediately comes to mind, and I first thought that was the sample used at the end — but it’s actually from the Jodeci track “Get on Up” which is referencing Kemp’s hit record with the line “Friday night, let’s all get paid.” So it all comes full circle to me saying we need more payday music.
Carl Lamarre: “TALKING” has grown on me A LOT. If I’m Ye, I’m already trying to start the North West roll-out for her upcoming debut album. Imagine being the first father-daughter combo to have top 10 records in a calendar year. I’m also a huge fan of “BURN.” I can hear that song on a Rush Hour 4 or Bad Boys 4 soundtrack. It’s vintage Yeezy with a mid-90s, early 2000s feel.
Michael Saponara: Not on Vultures 1, but other songs he’s been teasing definitely have hit potential. The Backstreet Boys-interpolating “Everybody” has been a fan-favorite at listening parties for months with the catchy chorus trading the ’90s boy band for Uncle Charlie Wilson. We’ll see if they can sort out potential clearance issues. Aligning more with the current landscape of rap, Ye and Ty have another possible banger in the arsenal with the slimy tentatively titled “Field Trip/Venom” featuring the versatile ensemble of Playboi Carti, Don Toliver and Lil Durk as guests. Those two would be my picks if they receive a proper streaming release on Vultures sequels.
Andrew Unterberger: Could definitely see “Paid” striking a vein, and the North parts of “Talking” could certainly find their way to a TikTok trend or two. But being real, Ye and Ty are already turning their attention to Vultures 2 — as will their fans in turn, no doubt — so anything that hasn’t broken out from 1 yet will probably have to wait for a random six-years-from-now revival, if anything.
5. Now that the re-mainstreaming of Kanye seems to be complete (for better or worse) following the major backlash of the past few years, do you see him once again being at the forefront of popular music like he was for most of the past two decades? Or has he been gone too long and done too much damage in recent years?
Kyle Denis: Kanye has curated an audience that’s markedly different from the one that he pissed off with his antics over the past few years. For that reason alone, I think he’ll comfortably remain an unignorable figure in popular music. However, I don’t foresee him truly recapturing the cultural zeitgeist the way he did during his peak in the ‘00s and early ‘10s. If anything, he’ll probably continue to get more hits by way of strategic collaborations like “Carnival.” Does he get a legitimate solo smash in the coming years? I’m not sure I’d put my money on it quite yet.
Angel Diaz: I want to say that he’ll be back on top, but I’m not sure he’s into success these days. Ye seems to be consumed by his enemies and in turn that makes him susceptible to self-sabotaging. He’s already started to do so with the latest posts he put on his Instagram Stories and feed — which have since been deleted — in which he took shots at everyone from Adidas to Christians. Someone must’ve told him to chill and enjoy his first No. 1 since 2011.
Carl Lamarre: He is enjoying a great run right now, and as a one-time super fan, despite his shenanigans, it’s interesting watching him try to bob and weave his way out of cancellation. Still, the odds of him returning to prime-time Mr. West, who was once doing blockbuster numbers in the mid-2000s, are slim because of the irreparable damage done.
Michael Saponara: Kanye will always be part of the music mainstream scene no matter the circumstances. It definitely won’t be like the earlier portion of his career though. At this point, Ye has made it clear that he’s anti-industry, and he’s even teasing not putting his albums on streaming in the future, at least initially. Even with the backlash, he maintains the youth’s approval, but he’s just never going to operate like other music titans — and that’s what makes Ye, Ye.
Andrew Unterberger: He’s back, for sure, but he’s following as much as he’s leading now: “Carnival” has a little of that old Ye spark, but it also feels like he’s taking shortcuts to the prize rather than blazing his own path. That he can get there at all at age 46, more than two decades after his first No. 1, is certainly both impressive and meaningful. But will it inspire the same awe and reverence that his following was initially built on in the 2000s? Feels unlikely.