five burning questions

It’s been an interesting couple of weeks for J. Cole.
He was roped into the most buzzed-about beef in recent rap history last month when fellow superstar Kendrick Lamar sent apparent shots at him and collaborator Drake in his own Billboard Hot 100-topping Future and Metro Boomin teamup, “Like That.” Two Fridays ago (Apr. 5), he responded with his new mixtape Might Delete Later and its climactic answer diss, “7 Minute Drill” — before publicly backing off the rejoinder at his own Dreamville Festival the following Sunday, explaining that feuding with Lamar didn’t sit right with him, and announcing his intent to remove the response cut from streaming.

The backlash from the internet and the larger hip-hop community was swift, with fans first dismissing “Drill” as lukewarm and uncommitted, and then largely mocking Cole for bowing out of the beef rather than standing behind his response. Nonetheless, Might Delete Later debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with 115,000 units — down from Cole’s usual first-week totals for new albums, but still a strong showing by most other artists’ standards, particularly for a mixtape — while “Drill” bows at No. 6 on the Hot 100, though Cole made good on his promise to take the song off streaming on Friday (Apr. 12), following the end of its first full tracking week.

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What should we take away from Cole’s Might Delete Later showing? And will the sour taste this era has left in many rap fans’ mouths end up following Cole to his long-anticipated The Fall Off release? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

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1. J. Cole debuts at No. 2 this week with 115,000 units for Might Delete Later. On a scale of 1-10, if you’re J. Cole, how satisfied are you with that first-week performance?

Kyle Denis: If I’m J. Cole and I really am orchestrating all of this as an elaborate roll out for The Fall Off, 10. If I’m J. Cole and this has nothing to do with The Fall Off at all, probably around a 6. A six-figure opening week units total in 2024 is never anything to scoff at, but after six consecutive studio albums hitting No. 1 and debuting with over 200,000 units, these numbers certainly leave more to be desired. Of course, Beyoncé is Beyoncé, but the fact that Cowboy Carter’s second week pulled ahead of Delete’s first — despite the latter initially leading predictions – speaks to how quickly consumers decided Cole’s latest offering wasn’t worth their time. 

Angel Diaz: If I’m Cole, I’ll be at a 10. The second spot on the 200 isn’t too shabby for a mixtape that was overshadowed by an unfortunate apology amid one of the more intriguing rap feuds in recent memory. 

Carl Lamarre: A 5. If I were Cole, half of me would be proud that I cracked six figures with little to no promotion. Based on my surprise drop, I can’t be upset if I lost to Beyonce. The other half is sick because the rap community is bullying me over that one record.

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Might Delete Later was a surprise release arriving in an absolutely stacked portion of the release calendar, amidst a hip-hop superstar civil war outshining a lot of the actual music, and headlined by a diss track that was regretted and removed from streaming services… and it still did six figures in its first week. This project didn’t receive a traditional rollout and has been defined more by where it fits into a Larger Beef Narrative than Cole’s greater discography, so its final total should be a sign that he’s still a commercial force.

Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 4. Yes, it’s just a mixtape, surprise release, whatever: If hip-hop fans were genuinely excited about this release (and “Drill” in particular) it would’ve still done big business. Cole coming in second for a full-length project, with well under half of the first-week units for 2021’s The Off Season — with all the eyes and ears of the hip-hop world set upon him — is a disappointment by his standards, straight up.

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2. Cole seems to have hedged expectations with just about everything regarding this set, from calling it a mixtape to repeatedly referencing it as the prelude to his upcoming The Fall Off project to titling it something non-committal to *actually deleting* one of its tracks from streaming this weekend. Given all of this, do you think it’s still fair to judge it as a proper J. Cole body of work, or do you kinda give it an asterisk there? 

Kyle Denis: I think all those caveats warrant an asterisk. Nonetheless, Delete is still an 11-track set released under the J. Cole moniker – it’s undoubtedly a body of work, just far from his best. 

Angel Diaz: I’m going to take it for what it is: a mixtape, a body of work, whatever you want to call it these days. Even if he decides to delete the entire tape eventually, the Internet is forever, and it’ll be floating around somewhere. He should throw it up on Dat Piff and really bring the feeling back. 

Carl Lamarre: It’s a body of work in which he was demonstrative about his rap standing and had no shame talking s–t. If you subtract the Dipset-flip for “Ready 24,” this was all original music with some creative touches. Even if it wasn’t up to Cole’s standards, Might Delete Later was packaged like an ordinary rap album. 

Jason Lipshutz: An asterisk, for sure, which makes its No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200 so impressive. If this is the prelude to a major new Cole project, based on its 115,000 unit start, I’d expect The Fall Off to score one of the biggest debuts of the year. And yes, if you’re literally deleting songs from a project once it’s released, chances are you don’t want that project to function as a defining work.

Andrew Unterberger: There’s a bit of an asterisk, sure, but not one nearly as big or as definitive as Cole’s hoping for.

3. “7 Minute Drill” debuts at No. 6 this week, and will most likely only get the one week in the top 10 after Cole removed it from streaming services on Friday. Do you think the lone week in the top 10 — particularly as “Like That” enjoys its third week at No. 1 — is more than the song deserves, less, or about right? 

Kyle Denis: Instinctively, I want to say it deserves less because of how limp of a response it is. But part of me thinks this is exactly what “7 Minute Drill” deserves. A single week in the top 10 is emblematic of the initial curiosity the song courted, and plummeting from that region as quickly as it got there is the perfect parallel to the lukewarm reception the song received once those first listens were complete. 

Angel Diaz: I’m not sure what’s going on with this track because it still shows up in my Apple Music downloads on my phone but isn’t available on Spotify or the desktop version of Apple Music. I think it makes sense that it would creep into the top 10 when you factor in all the drama surrounding it. Cole must really be apologetic because he’s leaving some money on the table, so I guess it’s about right. 

Carl Lamarre: Out of sheer anticipation, this is right where it should be. Cole isn’t a battle rapper — as proven by his swift exit from the ongoing rap civil war — but because of his high-level MC status, grit, and charisma, there was hope that Cole would at least try to even the score against Kendrick. Sure, scrubbing the record from streaming cleanses your spiritual energy — and waiting as long as he did to do it ensures it will still be forever deemed a top 10 record — but we all know the chatter that’s going on in hip-hop circles about that song and apology.

Jason Lipshutz: Sounds about right to me. Even if Cole hadn’t hastily removed “7 Minute Drill” from streaming services, I’d expect the track to attain an explosive chart debut and quick drop-off, since most listeners stopped by to hear the Kendrick disses without absorbing the actual song. While “Like That” stands on its own as a scorching-hot single surrounding Kendrick Lamar’s guest spot, “7 Minute Drill” sounds haphazardly constructed as a platform for a lukewarm takedown. It was always going to pique curiosities upon its release, and never going to last after that.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s about right. I was more positive on “Drill” that most — I feel it got some decent digs in there, and to be honest, I respect that he kept his attacks kinda practical and not that hyperbolic. But is it as good a song as “Like That”? Of course not. Even without the rapper Deleting Later, it probably would’ve fallen off the Hot 100 in a few weeks once the curiosity listens died down, and almost certainly would’ve spent just the one week in its top tier. That’s fine.

4. While “Drill” and its subsequent Cole about-face will likely make up the majority of the Might Delete Later legacy, is there anything elsewhere on the mixtape that you think is particularly notable/memorable/interesting for this Cole period? 

Kyle Denis: None of the music on Delete is interesting or impressive enough to rise out of the shadow of Cole’s decisions during this period – and that’s perfectly okay. I think his exit from the “Big Three” battle will easily stand as the most notable component of the Delete era for better and for worse. We’ll definitely look back on this entire back-and-forth – and Cole’s role and performance, in particular – as a key inflection point for the evolution of mainstream rap beef post-Hip-Hop 50. 

If anything, most of the mixtape’s collaborations were welcome, but unnecessary, reminders of how great the chemistry is between Dreamville artists.

Angel Diaz: J. Cole blacked on a couple of these records, man, that’s what makes his apology so frustrating and I’m not even the biggest Cole fan. “Huntin’ Wabbitz,” going bar-for-bar with Killa on “Ready ‘24,” and getting his lyrical miracle on with battle rap veteran Daylyt and TDE’s Ab Soul on “Pi” show that he belongs in the Big 3 conversation. For a surprise mixtape, Might Delete Later is a solid offering from a solid rapper.  

Carl Lamarre: I can’t lie; the erasure of “Drill” and his Dreamville Fest apology killed my listening experience post-release. Ironically, I wasn’t even a fan of “Drill” and thought “Trae The Truth in Ibiza” could have served as the project’s ideal send-off. But after he dismissed “Drill,” I tried listening again, and it hurt me because Cole spent the tape boasting about his lyrical prowess — most notably on “Ready 24.” I can’t even play that record back, because some of Cole’s first words are: “Ain’t no n—a better than me in this f–kin’ planet, I swear to God.” The about-face at Dreamville Fest killed any positive motion I had for his project, and I’m a devout fan.

Jason Lipshutz: The Central Cee team-up on “H.Y.B.” is intriguing, and my ’00s hip-hop-loving heart was overjoyed to hear both Cam’ron (!) and Young Duo (!!!) on this project. But the most interesting moment on Might Delete Later was “7 Minute Drill,” as well as how Cole handled the song following its release. We’ll see how calling an audible on the diss track affects his artistic perspective moving forward, but the move will define Might Delete Later, even though the song itself no longer exists on the project.

Andrew Unterberger: The collabs are good! I’ve never heard Cole sounding this versatile, meeting collaborators as wide-ranging as Cam’Ron, Central Cee and Ab-Soul mostly on their home terrain, without ever sounding like he’s stretching too far outside his own lane. I truly cannot remember the last time I’ve advocated for a rapper to take on MORE name guests on their album, but for the Patron Saint of Platinum With No Features, maybe the switch-up could help keep things a little fresh for him on The Fall Off.

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5. Cole has taken a near-unanimous L in general debate and on social media for “7 Minute Drill” and his subsequent Dreamville apology. Do you think it will actually affect perception and/or reception for Cole on future projects, or will this all become yesterday’s news for him and his fanbase pretty quickly? 

Kyle Denis: Both. And that’s the exact reason why this “beef” will have no verifiable victor. Cole’s fans already decided that they were rocking with him through thick and thin back in 2011, if not earlier. They survived the Noname battle and other controversies; this is not going to substantially shift the mindset of his fanbase. When it comes to those outside of Cole World, however, Cole’s exit and apology have blown up the once-solidified “Big Three” of the blog era. Like Drake and Lamar, reception for Cole’s projects have always had a built-in sheen because of how he’s revered in hip-hop circles. Based on the varied reception to his “Red Leather” verse, that’s already started to change a little bit. Ultimately, I think Cole will be just fine – but he should probably prepare himself for The Fall Off to be his most meticulously analyzed and critiqued album yet.  

Angel Diaz: I think this has already negatively affected his career. Fans will eventually forgive and forget, but for now he’s basically Switzerland as a band of American rappers clique up to take down the behemoth in the North. He had to stand 10 toes down after this song dropped because, like I said earlier, the Internet is forever. The disses weren’t even that personal and he’s rapped too many slick lines about being the best for too many years. His biggest mistake was dedicating a track to Kendrick, when Dot just sent a couple subs his way, while taking direct aim at Drake.

I understand his sentiments, but I wonder if he feels like he’s missing out on the history being made right now. The Fall Off most definitely needs to be a unanimous classic or at least close to it for borderline fans such as myself to take him seriously again. He put himself in a hole for absolutely no reason. I don’t think his career is over, but the convo about him being the best rapper in the game is over for now. 

Jason Lipshutz: Depending on how this genre-encompassing diss parade plays out, Cole releasing “7 Minute Drill,” pulling a “whoopsie” and bowing out of the contest altogether… might have been the best thing for him. For better or worse, we now know where he stands on this matter, and now he can view the fracas from afar while moving on to his next projects. Cole already released The Sideline Story more than a decade ago, and maybe it’s best that that’s where he’ll be during this free-for-all.

Andrew Unterberger: I think the folks who are calling Cole “finished” are on an altogether different planet, but could it have a residual long-term effect? Not impossible, but considering all the “rap is a competitive sport” takes that have surrounded hip-hop discourse lately, folks would do well to remember that in rap, as in pro sports, fans have short memories. Joel Embiid had an embarrassing playoff showing last year against the Celtics, but if he leads the Sixers past Boston and to the finals this year, most people will forget about 2023 real quick. Same thing with Cole — at least, if his next album is as good as he’s hyping it to be.

For the second time in three weeks, a new standard has been set for single-week units moved in 2024. Two weeks after Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine debuted with a year-best 227,000 units, according to Luminate, Future and Metro Boomin have raised the bar to 251,000 with their first full-length collaborative album We Don’t Trust You.

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While the album easily tops the Billboard 200 with its impressive first-week mark — set almost entirely through streams, with the album’s 17 tracks racking up a combined 324.31 official on-demand U.S. streams in its debut frame — its explosive Kendrick Lamar team-up “Like That” bows atop the Billboard Hot 100, with four other songs from the project also entering the chart’s top 10. The song debuts with 59.6 million streams, the top mark for 2024 so far, with interest in it largely driven by Lamar’s fiery verse, which takes implied shots at fellow rap stars J. Cole and Drake.

What does the success of “Like That” and We Don’t Trust You tell us about hip-hop in 2024? And can the duo maintain their momentum through a second full-length project this year? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Future and Metro Boomin’s We Don’t Trust You post’s the year’s best first-week tally this week with its 251,000 units moved, good for an easy No. 1 debut. Is this performance particularly meaningful to either Future’s or Metro’s careers, do you think, or is it mostly just par for the course for two of the most consistently successful figures of hip-hop’s last decade?

Jason Lipshutz: On paper, the quarter-million debut of We Don’t Trust You may seem like part for the course for two of hip-hop’s most bankable stars — but considering all of the chatter around “Like That,” the multiple other songs launched into the top 10 of the Hot 100, the still-mighty streaming performance of the album 10 days after its debut and the potential of an imminent sequel, Future and Metro Boomin have kicked off the spring in dominant fashion, and their album has become the biggest story in rap. Metro was already ascending as a front-line star thanks to Heroes & Villains and Future is no stranger to the top of the charts, but this project has functioned as a commanding moment in both of their respective careers, and feels particularly meaningful for their legacies. 

Heran Mamo: The success of We Don’t Trust You reinforces Future and Metro’s consistency as chart-topping hitmakers, but the album’s performance is a little more meaningful to Future’s career. We Don’t Trust You marks his ninth No. 1 album, a feat he’s accomplished in 2015 (twice), 2016, 2017 (twice), 2019, 2020, 2022 and now 2024. This not only speaks to Future’s consistency, but also his longevity in the rap game and validates his continued ascent into rarefied air.  

If the second Future x Metro album that’s dropping in two weeks also goes No. 1, that means he will not only have earned his 10th Billboard 200 No. 1 album, but that he will have also notched two No. 1 projects in the same year in three different years: 2015 (What a Time to Be Alive and DS2), 2017 (Future and Hndrxx) and 2024. He’d tie Elvis Presley and Eminem for the eighth-most No. 1 albums and be in fourth place among rappers, after Jay-Z (14), Drake (13) and Ye (11). 

Michael Saponara: I’d lean Metro for sure. He made a name for himself carving out hits behind-the-scenes as a beat maestro, but now he’s elevated his brand to another level as a commercial superstar being billed as the lead artist on tracks/albums. Between the success of the Grammy-nominated Heroes & Villains and the visibility gained from helming the Spider-Verse soundtrack, Young Metro has shown versatility and can really take this winning streak in any direction he wants. With another bona fide solo project, Metro could overtake the lane DJ Khaled has occupied for the last 15 years or so if he pleases. It doesn’t sound like the train’s going to slow down either as MB promised at least three albums this year.

Damien Scott: Future and Metro’s We Don’t Trust You going No. 1 was expected. They are two of the biggest artists in rap right now, and this was one of the most anticipated albums of the past few years. Future and Metro are coming off the biggest solo projects of their careers with I Never Liked You and Heroes & Villains, respectfully. And, despite having worked together on numerous songs over the years, the two have never released an official joint project. (Sure, Metro produced the bulk of What a Time to Be Alive, but that vision was more Drake and Future’s own.) So, when Metro told Ebro the reason he didn’t have any songs on I Never Liked You was because he was saving tracks for a different Future project, everyone’s been amped to see what the two longtime collaborators cooked up together.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know that it’s necessarily that huge a breakthrough for either artist at this point in their respective careers, but it does show that Metro Boomin is an A-lister on par with all but maybe a handful of MCs in hip-hop right now. Lest we forget, Future’s full-length team-ups haven’t always gone so great: What a Time to Be Alive (with Drake) was something of a classic, sure, but when was the last time you listened to WRLD on Drugs (with Juice WRLD) or Pluto x Baby Pluto (with Lil Uzi Vert)? But there was little doubt that Future and Metro would make collaborative magic together — and indeed, passed even the 222,000 units that Future moved in the debut frame for his most recent solo effort, 2022’s I Never Liked You.

2. “Like That” also bows at No. 1 on the Hot 100 with the year’s best single-week streaming tally. Do you see the degree of its success as being mostly attributable to the firestorm surrounding Kendrick Lamar’s seeming callout of fellow superstars J. Cole and Drake? If Lamar’s verse had been similarly inspired but with less direct targeting, do you think the song still debuts at No. 1?

Jason Lipshutz: In the first few days of its release, I would have mostly chalked up its enormous streaming success to the curiosity factor around Kendrick’s verse… but now that the dust has settled a bit, “Like That” has established itself as a sledgehammer of a single, even in its first half before K. Dot arrives. The “Everlasting Bass” lift, the zonked-out Future hook and the “Eazy-Duz-It” schoolyard sing-along all serve as prelude to its guest star’s fury; even without the thinly veiled shots, everything about the song hums along effectively. “Like That” would have fallen out of rotation if it was solely based around some inflammatory lines, but Future and Metro Boomin engineered a standout track around the disses.

Heran Mamo: Dot’s diss is undoubtedly the biggest reason why “Like That” had such a splashy No. 1 debut. And he’s a straight shooter with no time for subliminal targeting. Just go back and listen to Big Sean’s 2013 track “Control,” where Kendrick called out 11 rappers – including J. Cole, Drake and even Sean – by saying, “I’m usually homeboys with the same n—as I’m rhymin’ with/ But this is hip-hop, and them n—as should know what time it is/…. I got love for you all, but I’m tryna murder you n—as.” He’s kept that same energy for over a decade.  

And while Dot has been nothing but direct, Drake has contained the sneak dissing to his Instagram captions (for now) — even though he and J. Cole have had prime opportunities to clap back more candidly during their It’s All a Blur Tour — Big As the What? Cole’s Dreamville Festival is coming up this weekend, so maybe we’ll hear something from either of them then. In Drake’s 2013 Billboard cover story, he didn’t have much to say and dismissed Dot’s diss on “Control.” “I didn’t really have anything to say about it. It just sounded like an ambitious thought to me. That’s all it was,” he said. “I know good and well that Kendrick’s not murdering me, at all, in any platform. So when that day presents itself, I guess we can revisit the topic.” Well, Aubrey, I believe the time has come.  

Michael Saponara: I think there’s a good chance it still debuts at No. 1, but by not nearly as wide of a margin. “Like That” still would have been a standout on the collab effort but the massive buzz from K. Dot taking aim at Drizzy and Cole only boosted the track to another stratosphere. For Metro and Future, they were mostly competing with themselves — as “Type S–t” featuring Playboi Carti and Travis Scott would have been the other option heading for the top slot. 

Damien Scott: “Like That” debuting at No. 1 on the Hot 100 is very likely due to Kendrick going at Drake and J. Cole. That’s not to say the song needed the verse. The track was already a standout on the album before Kendrick’s verse started. As soon as you heard Future sliding over the “Everlasting Bass” sample, you knew the song was going to be special. The Kendrick verse was just the icing on the cake. There’s an argument to be made that Future’s verses are better but, come on — this is rap. There’s no denying how exciting a good battle is. Especially when it involves the best in the game. It’s rare when a rap diss is also a great song. You can count them on your fingers and have some digits to spare. So, it’s not surprising people went so crazy for it that it topped the charts.

Andrew Unterberger: The year’s-best marks wouldn’t have happened without the drama, I don’t think, but a blistering Future & Metro Boomin song with a rare fire-breathing cameo from Kendrick Lamar? That certainly sounds like a recipe for a No. 1 to me, almost regardless of subject matter. The fact that “Like That” is actually good is as important as the fact that it started the year’s biggest hip-hop s–tstorm, certainly.

3. Between Megan Thee Stallion’s “Hiss” and “Like That,” we’ve now seen two rap diss tracks debut at No. 1 in 2024, where at this point last year we still hadn’t had a single rap song of any kind reach the chart’s apex. Why do you think beef is moving the needle like this in 2024 — and do you agree with Metro that the success of song and single here is a sign that hip-hop is alive and well?

Jason Lipshutz: Celebrity gossip is always going to be highly valued currency: regardless of the medium, “Did you see what THIS famous person said about THAT famous person?” remains a vital component in popular culture. Rap beef is obviously not a novel concept, although the A-list players involved in both “Hiss” and “Like That” are enough to transcend hardcore hip-hop fans and reach casual listeners who want to crane their necks and see what’s going on. And the fact that modern rap contains such larger-than-life personalities that the greater population is interested when they’re fighting speaks to how healthy popular hip-hop is right now.

Heran Mamo: It’s damn near impossible not to be tuned into beef if you’re a rap fan. Songs like “Hiss” and “Like That” will have you sitting on your couch, snacking on popcorn and scrolling through your phone to see which rapper is taking shots next and who they’re targeting and how it’s going to escalade. Diss tracks evoke larger conversations not just online but also IRL, and those who need to be up to speed on what’s happening inevitably have to listen to the songs that ignited it all, which have allowed “Hiss” and “Like That” to shoot to No. 1.  

This level of competitiveness and s–t-talking is at the core of hip-hop’s spirit, so I definitely agree with Metro that the genre is alive and well. We’re 14 weeks into the year, and out of the nine Hot 100 No. 1 songs we’ve had, four have been rap songs: “Lovin on Me” by Jack Harlow, “Hiss,” “Carnival” by ¥$: Ye and Ty Dolla Sign feat. Rich the Kid and Playboi Carti, and “Like That.” Rap is off to a great start in 2024, especially compared to where it was at this point in 2023, so I have high hopes for the genre.  

Michael Saponara: Controversy sells. Hip-hop has been built on its fair share of historic feuds over the years and while the landscape of rap beef has changed its warfare tactics with the introduction of social media, fans are always going to indulge when the competitive juices get flowing in battle. It seems like social media is extending the shelf life of diss records at times with beef maintaining a buzz in the culture longer than traditional songs, which feel more disposable than ever. Hip-hop is definitely “alive and well,” with three rap albums and four different rap songs reaching No. 1 on the Billboard 200 and Hot 100 charts after what felt like a possible slip thanks to a quieter 2023 commercially.

Damien Scott: Social media has also played a big part in moving rap away from lyrical sparring. Instead of throwing on a beat and making a song, a lot of artists now just take to Instagram or TikTok or X to tell their fans why they’re better than their competition. So, when an artists actually do engage in a real battle — especially the biggest rap artists in the world — people’s ears perk up and fans get excited. I don’t know if I agree that it’s a sign that hip-hop is alive and well, after all, these guys have been around for at least 15 years. Meg is the youngest out of all of them at 29. That said, it is a sign that all is not lost. Hopefully, younger artists see the success of these songs and see that some of the traditional elements of the genre are worth saving.

Andrew Unterberger: Rumors of rap’s demise have long been greatly exaggerated — just because hip-hop isn’t displaying the cartoonish level of dominance it did in 2018 doesn’t mean it isn’t still easily the biggest genre in popular music. But is this particular evidence of hip-hop being in a good, healthy place? I dunno. Certainly, it never hurts to have the genre providing music’s biggest action of the season, but the fact that all the names involved in this particular drama are ones who’ve been part of rap’s ruling class for a decade already, at least partially reheating old beefs, doesn’t strike me as the most important indicator of the genre’s current vitality. When we see credible 25-and-under challengers to the throne mixing it up with the so-called Big Three, that’s when I’ll really be excited for hip-hop’s alive-and-wellness.

4. While “Hiss” was able to achieve tremendous first-week excitement, it was not able to sustain it: within a month and a half, it was off the Hot 100 entirely. Do you see “Like That” having a similar trajectory, or do you think it’s in it for the long haul?

Jason Lipshutz: Long haul, for sure. Not only is Kendrick Lamar’s verse on “Like That” a more explosive takedown than Megan’s disses, but the song around it is more compelling than “Hiss”; plus, the early streaming returns in its second week suggest that “Like That” is still earning plenty of plays even as the controversy has quieted down a bit. Although it’s only been a week and a half, I think “Like That” has a chance to be one of the biggest hits of 2024.

Heran Mamo: If the beef continues and intensifies, “Like That” could have a longer run on the Hot 100. I’ve seen a lot of TikTok videos of fans praising Metro’s expert sample of Rodney-O and Joe Cooley’s 1986 track “Everlasting Bass,” so they’ve found other elements of the song (outside of Kendrick’s headline-making verse) to hold onto. But I’ve also seen a lot of Photoshopped rap Avengers posters on the internet that suggest “Like That” has initiated a larger war, which suggests it could have longevity.  

I’m curious to see if there’s going to be another buzzier track on their upcoming second album. At this point, the only thing that’s going to be bigger than a Kendrick Lamar-featuring diss track against Drake and J. Cole is a track with 21 Savage that solidifies which side he’s on, considering that’s what a lot of people have been wondering about, given the rapper’s tight-knit relationship with both Metro and Drake.

Michael Saponara: “Like That” is going to stick around for the long haul as I expect We Don’t Trust You to remain a commercial juggernaut for the foreseeable future. The only thing that could be tricky here is Metro and Future outdoing themselves with another project on the way in a couple of weeks. The Nicki Minaj-Megan Thee Stallion feud burned bright and burned fast. With Megan releasing “Hiss” independently and the serpentine-themed track not really catching on at radio (No. 40 peak on the R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay Chart), it didn’t have the staying power for a mainstream hit. 

Damien Scott: Again, “Like That” is a great song despite the Kendrick verse. Because it’s already getting radio play, playlist placements — and, according to some anecdotal evidence, getting spun in the club — there’s a good chance of this song sticking around. Even if it falls from number one, I think it will stay in the top 10 as people anticipate a response from Drake and J. Cole. “Hiss,” while a good song, didn’t have the momentum “Like That” now enjoys, likely because many didn’t expect much to come of Megan’s beef with Nicki Minaj.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it’ll stick around — but I also thought that about “Hiss,” and was quickly proven wrong, so I’m a little more hesitant to be so bullish this time around. I also would’ve pegged “Texas Hold ‘Em” and then “Carnival” as long-lasting No. 1s, and they seem to be tapping out at a combined three weeks on top. There’s just a lot going on this year, with more big names and big songs getting into the game every week, and folks seem to be moving on from last week’s news a little quicker than they have the past couple years.

5. A second full-length teamup is supposedly due from Future & Metro later this month. Do you think they can build on this excitement and do even better the second time out, or is some commercial recession inevitable coming so soon after the first time?

Jason Lipshutz: I’d expect some commercial recession, but who knows! Maybe there’s another song on Part II that’s even more incendiary than “Like That,” or something that comments on the existing controversy around Kendrick’s verse. Topping the biggest debut week of the year a few weeks later is a tall order, but depending on what’s actually on the album, anything is possible.

Heran Mamo: Putting out two full-length albums only three weeks apart is ambitious, and outside of “Like That,” I would’ve liked to see other standout tracks like “Type Shit” cook a little more before serving fans an entirely different menu. However, dropping back-to-back projects is a signature Future move: He had a legendary run in 2014-2015 when he released three mixtapes in five months – Monster, Beast Mode and 56 Nights – that successfully set him up for his culturally influential DS2 album, which earned Pluto his first Billboard 200 No. 1 album. Two months later, he completed his victory lap when he teamed up with Drake (RIP to that duo) for What A Time To Be Alive, which Metro executive produced, and it earned him his second No. 1 album. He did it again in 2017, when he dropped Future and Hndrxx one week apart from each other, and both topped the Billboard 200. Given his track record, the new set could one-up We Don’t Trust You.  

Michael Saponara: A minor commercial recession seems inevitable with the years-long anticipation behind We Don’t Trust You and Kendrick Lamar throwing gas on the fire taking it to new heights. Although, I could envision a scenario where the hype is through the roof if Drake somehow responds to “Like That” in the time until the next project’s arrival, addressing the OVO static with Future and Metro. 

Damien Scott: Some commercial recession is inevitable. Just look at the last time Future released back-to-back albums. In 2017, when he dropped Future and Hndrxx a week apart, the second of the two, the more impassioned Hndrxx didn’t perform as well as the first offering. Granted, Future, in a way similar to We Don’t Trust You, was helped greatly by a viral Metro-produced single, “Mask Off.” The song took off on social media becoming a meme and inspiring tons of TikTok videos. None of the singles from Hndrxx enjoyed the same sort of virality. Without another hit that completely and utterly dominates the conversation, it’s safe to say we’ll see a dip, even if slight, in the performance of the upcoming project.

Andrew Unterberger: Really depends what they have up their sleeve for Vol. 2. Doesn’t seem like Future and Metro would unleash a first volume with as big a secret weapon as “Like That” buried in its tracklist and not have something similarly major planned as the ace in the hole for its follow up. Will be hard to compete with the consensus best rapper of his generation calling out the unquestionable biggest rapper of his generation, but I’d bet it’ll still be something to capture a lot of eyes and ears.

While Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine spends a second week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this week, a pair of new releases check into the top five below it: country star Kacey Musgraves‘ Deeper Well, and Justin Timberlake‘s Everything I Thought It Was.

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Musgraves’ latest debuts at No. 2 on the chart, with 97,000 units moved — the best first-week performance of her career in units, and her highest debut on the listing since debut LP Same Trailer Different Park also hit No. 2 in 2013. Meanwhile, Timberlake’s first set in six years bows at No. 4 with 67,000 units, making it his first official album since 2002’s Justified not to take the top spot.

How are the two artists most likely feeling about their respective albums’ debut performances this week? And which of the two sets are we most likely to return to throughout the rest of 2024? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Kacey Musgraves’ Deeper Well debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 – below Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine in its second week, but tied for Musgraves’ best-ever chart placement, and with her best first-week tally to date (97,000). On a scale from 1-10, how excited do you think she is with that debut-week performance?

Hannah Dailey: I’ll give it a 9. A No. 1 album would’ve been an exciting first for Kacey, but debuting as high as No. 2 while in competition with Eternal Sunshine and Everything I Thought It Was is still excellent, especially six albums deep into her career.  

Kyle Denis: It’s gotta be a 10, right? Kacey is the biggest winner of the week in my eyes. She’s spent years toiling outside of the Nashville apparatus and her returns have gotten more and more impressive with each subsequent release. If the success of Deeper Well tells us anything, it’s that Kacey has cultivated one of the most loyal fanbases in contemporary country music. There was no hit single – or as close to a “hit” as a Kacey track can be – nor was there an accompanying music film or flashy awards show performance. 

Deeper Well sold almost solely off the back of fan loyalty and good music. Moreover, the new LP is the follow-up to Star-Crossed, another Billboard 200 top 10 effort that was met with decidedly more mixed reactions than Golden Hour or Deeper Well. Star-Crossed and its film of the same name employed an aesthetic closer to mainstream pop than any of Kacey’s previous records, and she was able to retain the new fans she earned from that era and fold them into her larger fan base, resulting in the best first-week unit total of her career with Deeper Well. And for what it’s worth, Deeper Well and Eternal Sunshine had a very close race – this is a win for both ladies. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 7. A couple points get knocked off for getting so close-but-not-quite-there to her first No. 1 album and six-figure equivalent albums unit showing, but for Musgraves, this debut — with a relatively muted project, and nothing resembling a crossover hit single on it — demonstrates her continued commercial power as a genre-straddling singer-songwriter. The top of the Billboard 200 was crowded this week, and for Deeper Well to cut through the competition and earn the top debut should be a very encouraging sign for Musgraves. 

Jessica Nicholson: 8. When she previously earned No. 2 album debut on the Billboard 200, it was for her debut project Same Trailer, Different Park, which was led by her top 10 Country Airplay hit single “Merry Go Round.” She earned her first Billboard Hot 100 chart-topper with the Zach Bryan collab “I Remember Everything” last year and the song has had impressive staying power on the chart, further elevating her visibility in the leadup to the Deeper Well release. But none of the songs released leading up to Deeper Well quite reached that same bell-ringing chart height, and she has strong competition from Grande on the albums chart. Given all of the above, she’s had a stellar debut week for Deeper Well.

Andrew Unterberger: Probably an 8. To still be going up in numbers not just more than a decade after her debut but now a half-decade after her album of the year Grammy win for Golden Hour indicates that Musgraves’ audience is both impressively wide and absolutely in it for the long haul. Would’ve been nice to finally get that No. 1 though.

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2. Musgraves has long bucked the system when it comes to going the traditional routes of promotion for a country artist – but over a decade into her career, her popularity still seems to be growing. What do you think the biggest factor is behind Deeper Well scoring her best first-week debut yet?

Hannah Dailey: I think that Kacey is simply a really authentic person and a truly gifted storyteller, which keeps people curious about the ever-changing perspectives she offers in her music. I also think that Golden Hour, especially after winning AOTY, solidified her as an “album artist,” so people are always going to be hyped to see how she crafts a full-package experience with each LP. 

Kyle Denis: I’ll reemphasize that Deeper Well landed as a return to form of sorts. Where Star-Crossed found her flirting with legitimate pop stardom (visual album, headlining arena tour, VMAs performance), Deeper Well is sonically and aesthetically closer to the earthier vibe of Golden Hour and Same Trailer Different Park. When you combine the new Star-Crossed fans with an already fervent home base secured from the country star’s first three LPs, you’re left with a large audience that is invested in Kacey’s world-building. There’s also something to be said about the new fans she may have courted thanks to her and Zach Bryan’s Billboard Hot 100-topping “I Remember Everything.” 

Jason Lipshutz: One could point to Deeper Well sounding a little like a course correction back to the comforts of Golden Hour following the more urgent Star-Crossed, or to the fact that “I Remember Everything” with Zach Bryan gave Musgraves her first Hot 100 chart-topper while undoubtedly expanding her audience. I think it’s simpler than that: at this point in her career, Musgraves has developed a loyal listenership that transcends traditional country lines and is going to show up for her songwriting when she returns with a new project every few years. As long as Musgraves continues at the quality and release rate she’s been at for a while, she’ll be an artist that a lot of music fans will want to grow old with.

Jessica Nicholson: As music audiences have become increasingly niche, Musgraves hasn’t wavered from knowing who she is as an artist and has a keen sense of what her audience wants. A key part of Musgraves’ brand has always been her complex, introspective, vivid style of songwriting, which also happens to fall right in line with what has been popular among mainstream listeners over the past year, as evidenced by the success of Noah Kahan and Zach Bryan — both of whom Musgraves has collaborated with recently. She also smartly sees the continued resurgence of vinyl, and released nine vinyl variants of Deeper Well, including eight different colors of vinyl variants, which also boost those sales numbers.

Andrew Unterberger: It is indeed good timing for Musgraves, who is benefitting not only from vinyl’s increased value as a collector’s item among fans, but from country’s and folk’s ever-growing slices of the streaming pie — and from her recent allegiances with two of the biggest beneficiaries of the latter boon, Zach Bryan and Noah Kahan. She’s a thoughtful artist with a savvy sense of how to connect with her fans, and those are the artists who usually last the longest at her current level.

3. Justin Timberlake’s Everything I Thought It Was bows at No. 4 this week, with 67,000 first-week units – less than a quarter of the 293,000 units moved by his previous effort, Man of the Woods, in its debut frame. Are those numbers higher, lower, or about where you would’ve expected for Timberlake’s latest?

Hannah Dailey: They’re lower than I expected, but not that much lower. I assumed that his most dedicated fans, plus his appeal to *NSYNC nostalgia with “Paradise,” would carry him a little bit more than it did. At the same time, performers can only last so long at the top without changing things up artistically, something he seems either reluctant or incapable of doing. 

Kyle Denis: Lower. I wasn’t expecting anything all that impressive – given that no one seems to really care about “Selfish” and that his reputation is in the gutter right now – but Justin Timberlake not being able to clear at least 100,000 units in any circumstance is still a shocker. 

Jason Lipshutz: Lower. A drop-off in units compared to Man of the Woods was expected, considering that it’s been more than a half-decade since Timberlake’s last album and that Everything I Thought It Was wasn’t preceded by a particularly big hit single. Yet after all the press that JT completed rolling out the album, the new *NSYNC song on its track list and surprise reunion ahead of its release, the arena tour coming soon and the fact that it’s still Justin freakin’ Timberlake… maybe the album rebounds a bit as the tour picks up, but 67,000 units couldn’t have been the expectation for Week 1. 

Jessica Nicholson: Everything I Thought It Was comes six years after Man of the Woods, which earned two top 10 hits on the Hot 100, while the lead up to Everything only saw one top 20 hit on the Hot 100. Still, given that Man of the Woods debuted at No. 1 (and given Timberlake’s history as one of pop music’s biggest artists through his time with ‘NSYNC and his solo work in the early ’00s), his first-week numbers for the new album came in lower than I would have expected.

Andrew Unterberger: About where I would have expected, which probably tells you all you need to know about how Justin Timberlake’s last decade has gone.

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4. After a very bad half-decade of press that reached a new low with the revelations from Britney Spears’ recent memoir, Timberlake desperately needed an album that at least changed the conversation about him or moved him out of his past somewhat. Do you think this album accomplishes that? 

Hannah Dailey: No. If anything, I think JT was trying to say, “Look at me, I can still deliver all the same things you loved about me 20 years ago!” with this era. The problem is that people don’t love or even want those same things anymore. The approach backfired in that it solidified him deeper as the persona people have grown less tolerant of in recent years.

Kyle Denis: Absolutely not. The album would have accomplished that if people engaged with the music, but it’s clear that nobody really cares about it. “Selfish” — which was nearly overshadowed by a decade-old Britney Spears song of the same name – has yet to surpass the No. 19 Hot 100 peak it notched in its opening week, and none of the album’s tracks have emerged as a potential second single. Even Man of the Woods squeaked out two top 10 hits!

This is all coming after songs with Calvin Harris (“Stay with Me”), SZA (“The Other Side”) and Nelly Furtado & Timbaland (“Keep Going Up”) that went nowhere. People haven’t been connecting with JT’s music for some time now. In the case of this specific album, there’s certainly good material on it, but “good” just isn’t enough for his current situation. 

At best, the Forget Tomorrow tour – which, arguably, wouldn’t be possible without Everything I Thought It Was – will do more to change the conversation around JT than the music. With a total gross rumored to end up somewhere around $140 million and challenge for his most successful tour yet, JT will have plenty of time to redirect the public conversation with some good press. Barring a one-off surprise hit, it might be time to say that JT is entering his legacy act era as an artist who can sell tickets, but not necessarily new albums. 

Jason Lipshutz: Yes and no. While Everything I Thought It Was is a solid reminder of Timberlake’s pop panache and showmanship, the new album really needed a new hit or huge chart bow to fully transcend the recent negative headlines. Credit to JT for looking inward a few times on Everything I Thought It Was, as well as serving up the type of disco-funk grooves that loyal listeners can enjoy, but the narrative here is going to be less about the art and more about its commercial returns.

Jessica Nicholson: Including his ‘NSYNC bandmates on the album, and reuniting with them for a performance during his one night only show at The Wiltern in Los Angeles certainly sparked a social media frenzy. But overall, this album doesn’t seem to shift things forward — sonically or narratively. Instead, it seems to rely heavily on the mid-2000s pop and R&B sounds he’s known for, and barely seems address his personal life at all (with a notable exception in the album opener “Memphis”), when nodding to personal events now seems de rigueur for so many artists.

Andrew Unterberger: Nope. I feel for Timberlake a tiny bit because I’m not totally sure what he even could have done to change people’s perceptions of him on this album, short of a jarring sonic left turn or a harrowingly introspective lyrical focus. Maybe a greater artist would’ve at least attempted one of those, but Timberlake clearly wasn’t ready to close the door yet on his days as a central force in pop music, which is understandable. Nevertheless, this album may end up closing it for him.

5. Which of the two albums do you think you’ll be revisiting more as the year goes on? 

Hannah Dailey: Deeper Well. 100%.  

Kyle Denis: Deeper Well. Kacey’s new record will be evergreen for life’s quieter, more introspective moments. JT’s record has several strong songs, but they ultimately feel forgettable because his performance across the album is tragically devoid of the sauce that made LPs like The 20/20 Experience such triumphs. 

Jason Lipshutz: Deeper Well, although the best moments on Everything I Thought It Was have been enjoyable to revisit in the first couple of weeks since its release (and I am a well-documented Man of the Woods defender, who has returned to that one quite a bit). But as we enter springtime, I am ready to listen to Musgraves’ cozy tales of Saturn returning, lazy days and dinners with friends, birds chirping around me all the while.

Jessica Nicholson: Musgraves has always crafted music that feels intimate, relatable, timeless — even groovy when called for (see “High Horse” and “Justified,” among others). The laid-back, centered vibe and folky instrumentation of Deeper Well, along with the themes of peace, self-improvement and dismantling old habits that no longer suit her, make this a comfort-filled, if slightly sleepy at moments, listening experience — one that will warrant returning to repeatedly.

Andrew Unterberger: Probably neither, in truth — can’t say I’ve found either album to be particularly resonant so far. But Musgraves’ album is pleasant, and significantly shorter, so I guess that one.

March has ended up a much more crowded pop month in 2024 than it has the past few years, with new albums delivered or expected from big names like Justin Timberlake, Kacey Musgraves, Shakira, Future x Metro Boomin and Beyoncé. But up first among the A-listers was Ariana Grande, and her first-week performance should set the star standard for the rest of the month, if not even longer.

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Grande debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week with her recently released seventh album Eternal Sunshine, moving 227,000 units in the set’s first week of availability — easily outshining the 149,000 first-week units previously moved by Ye & Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 1, 2024’s prior high-water mark. Meanwhile, the set’s new single “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” also debuts atop the Hot 100, making for the album’s second No. 1, following the fast-starting, quickly receding “Yes, And?”

How should Ariana feel about her big debut week? And will “We Can’t Be Friends” have better chart endurance than its predecessor? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

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1. Ariana Grande debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 227,000 units moved — up about 30% from the 174,000 Positions bowed with in 2020, though still down from the 360,000 Thank U, Next debuted with the year before. On a scale from 1-10, how excited do you think Grande should be with that entrance?

Katie Atkinson: 10. Any time a veteran artist builds on their last release – in this case, selling even more than she did with her most recent Billboard 200 No. 1 album – it’s cause for celebration. Her fanbase clearly missed her and didn’t go anywhere, and in fact grew in numbers this time around. So she didn’t match her Thank U, Next numbers… yes, and? This is excellent news for Ari all around.

Kyle Denis: 9. Eternal Sunshine pulled first-week numbers that are comparable to that of the two albums she released when she was arguably at a popularity peak in terms of her social media presence and general media coverage. Furthermore, Eternal Sunshine arrived on the back of considerable controversy regarding Grande’s personal life, as well as a lead single that garnered fairly lukewarm reception. Despite those obstacles, Grande pulled off the year’s best sales week yet with an album on which she wrote nearly every song by herself. That’s got to feel pretty amazing – especially for an artist who has spoken at length about how much Eternal Sunshine feels like a new chapter in her life and career. 

Lyndsey Havens: 10. Regardless of units, I think the cultural imprint of Eternal Sunshine is almost (if not just) as significant as Thank U, Next. Plus, Thank U had the added boost of following Sweetener — which likely led to a larger first-week sum, as it arrived within six months of its predecessor and continued to offer a behind-the-scenes look at Ari’s most front-facing era. With Eternal Sunshine, the first week showing is impressive for a variety of factors: the rollout was swift, with only one single in “Yes, And?” arriving ahead of the album’s release; Ari herself has been somewhat out of the spotlight – despite inspiring countless headlines – as she filmed Wicked; and she was selective with press leading up to its arrival. All in all, a No. 1 debut is always something worth celebrating – and even if its opening week had fallen short, Ari made this album for herself. As she declared in “Yes, And?”: “I’m so done with caring with you think.” 

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Eternal Sunshine follows the longest recording gap in her career, and while lead single “Yes, And?” debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100 in January, the song hasn’t functioned like a months-long top 10 smash on the level of something like the Thank U, Next title track. With those factors in mind, Grande returning with the biggest debut of the years so far, and an even stronger first-week performance than that of Positions, has to feel highly encouraging, and the confirmation of a superstar who still generates a ton of excitement even after a relatively prolonged break. 

Andrew Unterberger: Without “Yes, And?” and its relatively muted reception, I would’ve said 7. Following it, I might say 9. We’ll split the difference and say 8 overall here: It’s a very fine first-week total that feels even finer since Grande looked at least slightly at risk of coming in soft following the somewhat iffy response to its lead single.

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2. This album was promoted somewhat unusually compared to Grande’s other recent releases, considering that it was announced months in advance, but only with one new song dropped pre-release — the No. 1-debuting but somewhat coolly received “Yes, And?” Do you think the first-week debut justifies the promotional strategy, or did she potentially leave units on the table?

Katie Atkinson: It justifies the strategy, because her fans consumed almost everything all at once, instead of skipping over the pre-release tracks they’d already heard. The album’s commercial success appears to be the icing on top of an artistically and emotionally fulfilling rollout for Grande, too, given that the project is themed around the end of her marriage and the start of her new relationship, so she’s able to deliver it as a complete work from start to finish. “Sharing it has re-opened a lot of little and big feelings alike and it has been an emotional week in many ways!” she wrote on Instagram to celebrate her No. 1 debut, “but your overwhelmingly loving response to it all has made me feel such joyful, human connection and comfort.” Much of that response was possible by saving almost the full album for release day.

Kyle Denis: Absolutely — to both, kinda. There’s no doubt in mind that with a stronger-performing lead single, Eternal Sunshine could have at least crossed the 250,000 mark. Nonetheless, I do think the limited appearances and intentional focus on the music is a campaign much better suited for 2024 Ariana Grande than, say, 2014 Ariana Grande. 

Lyndsey Havens: I’ve always been a fan of a highly anticipated album being preceded by one track – and not even its best one. My guess if that Ari may have not cared all that much about her album’s debut week, and instead of worrying about leaving units on the table she was more concerned with making an album that would last. It seems as if the rollout plan is just heating up, rather than coming to a slow stop – and to me, that’s a strategy that only a seasoned pop player can pull off so well. 

Jason Lipshutz: The first-week performance of Eternal Sunshine — plus the fact that both its lead single and second single hit No. 1 on the Hot 100 — makes the rollout look like a stroke of genius. Grande was able to generate excitement around her return with “Yes, And?,” then preserve a lot of that anticipation around the rest of the album; “We Can’t Be Friends” was a clear standout upon its release, and a new music video was locked and loaded in order to help Grande score back-to-back chart-toppers. Of course, none of this works if Grande didn’t come correct with the new music, but as far as releasing that music for maximum impact, I’m not sure how you could have drawn it up better.

Andrew Unterberger: It maybe validated it, but it definitely rescued it. “Yes, And?” was a fine-enough “I’m back” single, but it probably wasn’t quite the undeniable smash that fans were hoping for after what was essentially a three-year absence for Grande. To see that song quickly tumble out of the top 10 and decline to follow it up was really putting herself at risk if the album didn’t deliver immediately. But it did — helps of course that the album is very, very good — and now the whole thing seems like it’s unfolded exactly as it should have. All part of Grande’s brilliant design? Only she knows for sure, but it doesn’t really matter at this point anyway.

3. Eternal Sunshine ultimately outperformed most early first-week projections, largely because consumption of the album — in particular lead single “We Can’t Be Friends” — continued rising past the weekend. Why do you think the album managed to maintain its momentum at a time when albums so often begin fading almost immediately after release?

Katie Atkinson: There was a lot of discourse online about what each song was about and what it said about her relationships, old and new. And for “We Can’t Be Friends” specifically, there’s the music video that takes the album’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind inspiration to its literal conclusion by re-creating vignettes from the film with Ariana stepping for Kate Winslet and Evan Peters stepping in for Jim Carrey. It bears repeat viewings for how beautiful and very, very sad it is. (And as the YouTube commenters have pointed out, it’s nice to see a “playful/smiley” version of Peters, who typically plays very dark characters.)

Kyle Denis: It’s not the most mind-blowing answer, but Eternal Sunshine is simply a great album that gets better and reveals more layers (both musically and conceptually) with each listen – and not too many mainstream pop albums are doing that currently. Grande also used to be notorious for how she would shower fans with snippets and teases months before releasing an album. With none of that happening this time around, fans had no choice but to sit with the album and immerse themselves in the world Grande and her collaborators crafted.  

Lyndsey Havens: I think it’s directly correlated to the fact that projections were low for this album. On a musical level, it’s clear that Eternal Sunshine is Ari at her most confident – each song, especially lead single “Yes, And?” proves as much. And as it pertains to the album’s rollout, that self-assuredness has seemed to carry over. It’s as if Ariana knew she was sitting on gold – it was only a matter of time until everyone else saw the sparkle, too. 

Jason Lipshutz: Multiple factors could have helped Eternal Sunshine sustain its streaming numbers beyond its first weekend, but the main reason is the most obvious one: the album is really, really good. Eternal Sunshine has been met with acclaim by both Arianators and overall pop fans alike, and along with immediate interest in “We Can’t Be Friends” as a breakout single, fans kept returning to, and gobbling up, the album on streaming services. The album outpacing its early projections bodes well for its long-term commercial health — I could see Eternal Sunshine hanging around the top 10 of the Billboard 200 for a while based on this type of universal embrace.

Andrew Unterberger: Grande’s extremely busy and visible weekend no doubt helped a good amount: Following the release of Sunshine that Friday, she brought “Friends” (and albummate “Imperfect for You”) to SNL on Saturday, while also acting in a couple sketches, then appeared at the Oscars to present best original song with her Wicked co-star Cynthia Erivo on Sunday. For a star who felt like she’d largely been absent for the past three years to suddenly be everywhere again undoubtedly made sure she was on everyone’s mind throughout the rest of the week, and no doubt helped those first-week streams a decent amount.

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4. While “Yes, And?” bowed at No. 1 at the Hot 100, it also slipped out of the top 10 two weeks after, not returning to the top tier until this week (when it rebounds to No. 10). Do you think “Friends” will follow a similar trajectory of sliding post-release, or will it be more enduring as a hit than “Yes, And?” has thusfar proven to be?

Katie Atkinson: Well, if you’re asking for me personally, I love “Yes, And?” and its Paula Abdul-indebted music video a lot. But after hearing the full project, “We Can’t Be Friends” feels far more in line with the theme of the album. So while I hope there is a world where “Yes, And?” endures, I will totally understand if the song that’s more emblematic of the album is what fans associate with it in years to come.

Kyle Denis: I think “Friends” will dwarf “Yes, And?” pretty easily. It’s much more easily digestible from a sonic and lyrical standpoint, Grande’s SNL performance was stellar, and the track’s stability throughout its first week signals that audiences are genuinely connecting with it. Although it’s a highly competitive spring — with Cowboy Carter, Tortured Poets and more Vultures LPs on the way — I see “Friends” sticking around the Hot 100 top 10 well into the summer. Hopefully by then, however, “The Boy Is Mine” will have emerged as the album’s next single. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think now that we have the full Eternal Sunshine package, both songs could sustain top-tier placements – though I do think “Friends” is more likely to stick around the top 10, especially as Ari continues to reveal more behind the scenes clips online. And while I love “Friends,” I think the question isn’t is if it will be more enduring than “Yes, And?” but if it will be the most enduring track on the album at all. Grande also chose album standout “Imperfect for You” to perform on Saturday Night Live, a stunning ballad that has yet to reach its full mainstream potential, and we’re now seeing stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Megan Thee Stallion sing along to a sped-up version of “The Boy is Mine” on TikTok. All is to say, I think the genius of this album is that there isn’t one true standout song – we need them all. 

Jason Lipshutz: “We Can’t Be Friends” sounds like the defining hit of this Ariana Grande era, a synth fantasia with blurring relationship lines and a big, heartfelt hook. “Yes, And?” has grown on me quite a bit, but its tone is slightly off-center compared to the rest of Eternal Sunshine; “Friends” captures the main ideas and sound of an album that fans have immediately championed, and I think that will help the single find more chart success than Grande’s previous No. 1 hit.

Andrew Unterberger: It does feel like “Friends” is a bit more of a pop bullseye than “Yes, And?,” and we should see that reflected in its chart performance. I don’t know if its run at No. 1 will ultimately be that much longer than the one week for “Yes, And?” however — the turnover on the charts this year has been much more consistent than it was early in the past couple years, and my recent prediction of a long run atop the Hot 100 for “Texas Hold ‘Em” already appears to have been proven over-enthused.

5. It’s been about a week and a half — where, roughly, do you rank Eternal Sunshine within Grande’s catalog so far?

Katie Atkinson: I would probably put it at No. 3 or 4 at the moment. I love that Ari took a big autobiographical swing on this one, but I might have needed a few dance floor moments to move it up in my ranking.

Kyle Denis: No. 2. Give it until the fall, and we just might have a new No. 1. 

Lyndsey Havens: This is the question I have grappled with the most. On one hand, I have always considered my top album Sweetener and Thank U, Next to be an unsplittable pair, coming in at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. But the thing about Eternal Sunshine is that, to me, it is so good that I think it has done the impossible: broken the dynamic duo apart. Which is to say, Eternal Sunshine is looking at a runner-up spot to my forever No. 1 Sweetener, creating a bittersweet reality for Thank U, Next.

Jason Lipshutz: In a seven-album race, it earns the bronze medal. Eternal Sunshine represents another mature, high-quality album from Grande that’s more consistently pleasing than Positions but comes up just short of the transcendent nature of the Sweetener/Thank U, Next one-two punch. No shame in that game, of course; taken as a whole, Grande’s albums output has been dizzyingly good since 2018, turning her from a reliable hitmaker to one of pop’s very elite.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s in the exact middle of the pack for me: richer and more considered than her first three sets, but not as sonically satisfying as Sweetener, as sublime as Positions or as emotionally striking as Thank U, Next. Regardless, Grande is undoubtedly in the midst of one of the great album runs for any pop artist this century — maybe any artist, period.

If the chart-topping first-week debut for Vultures 1 wasn’t sign enough that Kanye West was once again back at the mainstream’s center, three weeks later we get an even surer sign: “Carnival,” the set’s lead single, has ascended to pole position on the Billboard Hot 100 in its fourth week.

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It’s Kanye’s first No. 1 on the chart since 2011 — when he was featured on Katy Perry’s fourth consecutive Teenage Dream Hot 100-topper, “E.T.” — and his first as a lead artist since “Stronger” in 2007. (It’s also his first major hit since receiving extreme backlash for his repeat antisemitic comments, for which he posted an apology in Hebrew in December.) Meanwhile, it’s the second visit to the top for co-lead Ty Dolla $ign, following his appearance on Post Malone’s “Psycho” in 2018, and the first for both of its featured artists: Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid.

Who does the No. 1 mean the most to? And does mean Kanye’s back at the vanguard of pop music like he was during his biggest years? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. “Carnival” is not only the first Hot 100 No. 1 for Kanye West since 2011 — since 2007, if you don’t count his not-particularly-immortal appearance on Katy Perry’s “ET” — and by most measures, his first true smash in at least a half-decade. On a scale from 1-10, how important is it for him at his point in his career to have an old-fashioned HIT-hit like this?

Kyle Denis: I think it depends on how you look at it. Did Kanye need a true smash hit in 2024 to cement his overall legacy? Absolutely not. Did Kanye need a true smash hit in 2024 to re-establish himself as a viable commercial force (particularly in terms of singles) in the mainstream? Yes. So, let’s go with a 6.5-7. 

Angel Diaz: Five? Ye is going to be polarizing whether his music is good or not. The old Kanye is gone and is never coming back. While I do think it’s cool to see him go No. 1 again, I’m not sure its’s going to matter in the grand scheme of things. I do think this is his best post Pablo album, though. Someone as talented as Mr. West will always have a puncher’s chance.

Carl Lamarre: If we’re speaking on Ye’s ego, a 10. Being able to dribble past his antisemitic comments and his feud with Adidas takes hall-of-fame precision. Not only did he land his 11th consecutive No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 with Vultures last month, but now he can hoist a No. 1 song on the Hot 100, all while playing the game as an independent artist. For someone as audacious as Ye, expect his turn-up and ego to match that same energy. 

Michael Saponara: 6. I don’t think Ye necessarily needed a smash as he’s always going to be an influential figure in society’s mainstream and connect with his fan base. However, becoming the first rapper to earn a No. 1 in three different decades and doing it independently at 46 has turned heads and legitimized his methods to the madness creatively. If anything, the mainstream acclaim is only going to embolden his voice when it comes to future decisions, for better or worse. Even the haters have to respect what “Carnival” has accomplished without much radio play and playlisting in a genre that’s lacked serious hitmakers in recent years. 

Andrew Unterberger: An 8. Obviously Kanye was going to be a major voice in music and culture for many years to come even if he never had another big pop hit — but having one, especially at a time when even major rappers are finding a lot more trouble scoring runaway hits than they maybe used to, shows that he still knows what really moves the mainstream in 2024. He’s certainly taking it as a major win himself, as evidenced by the ill-advised victory lapping he’s been doing on IG this week.

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2. While the headlines about “Carnival” will always be Kanye-focused first and foremost, three other artists also add a No. 1 to their tallies with the single: Ty Dolla $ign’s second, and the first for both Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid. Which of those three artists do you think has the most to gain from the song’s massive success? 

Kyle Denis: Probably Carti. He’s had proper hits in the past but as he’s delved deeper into his own idiosyncratic rage rap sound, traditional hits have proven a bit more elusive for him. This is a good look for him as he prepares for his next record and his long-delayed Antagonist Tour. As for Ty and Rich the Kid, a No. 1 is a towering achievement no matter how you slice it, but neither performer is the kind of artist that *needs* to top the Billboard Hot 100 to retain their fanbase and interest in their music.  

Angel Diaz: Carti 100 percent. He already has the youth and almost every new rapper these days is either influenced by him or is currently biting his style while sounding like “We got Playboi Carti music at home.” He should take advantage of this moment and drop the follow-up to his cult classic Whole Lotta Red, which is already four years old. Also, because we need more “schyeah” content.

Carl Lamarre: Rich the Kid with Ty coming in second. For many mainstream listeners, Rich’s most significant moments came during the 2017-2018 era when he unleashed “New Freezer” with Kendrick Lamar and “Plug Walk.” Though he had some highlights here and there, to the public eye, he drowned in oblivion until Ye tossed him a lifeline. The talent for Rich has always been there; he just needed the right opportunity, and on “Carnival,” he made the best out of it. 

Michael Saponara: Rich The Kid has been hibernating from the charts the last few years and he’s caught a lifeline with “Carnival” which RTK deserves a lot more credit for than Rap Radar co-host Elliott Wilson seemed to be giving him, in my opinion. With a No. 1 hit to his name, Rich will have more eyeballs on him than usual, which wouldn’t have been the case without his Vultures standout feature. Spending time around Ye and Ty will be a positive from a creative perspective, and it makes sense they’re capitalizing on the momentum and executive-producing his forthcoming project. 

Andrew Unterberger: Can only speak for myself here, but I certainly didn’t know that Rich the Kid still had the juice like that. Considering he’s only even touched the Hot 100 once this decade prior to “Carnival” — at No. 91 for precisely one week with the Lil Wayne collab “Feelin Like Tunechi” — I’m guessing he’s putting this No. 1 pretty high up on the updated CV.

3. Considering none of Ye’s past three projects have produced a breakout hit nearly on the level of “Carnival,” what do you think it is about this song that’s allowed it to achieve liftoff the way it has? Is there one thing in particular it does that puts it in league with past Kanye hits on this level? 

Kyle Denis: It’s definitely the catchiest Kanye single since the Life of Pablo era. The gospel-tinged tracks on Jesus Is King were always going to be hard sells – even though “Follow God” debuted in the top 10 – and the biggest tracks on Donda had their hit potential marred by a messy release and a comparatively less favorable period of public opinion for the rapper. 

Most importantly, however, Kanye tapped into youth culture with “Carnival” and took a literal back seat. He only has one verse on the song, while Carti (who has a massive cult following) and Rich the Kid take up most of the airtime. It feels like a latter-day Kanye record without containing too much of his actual voice; you don’t even hear Kanye at all on the part of the song that’s gained the most traction (the hook). By having rappers from a younger generation anchor “Carnival,” Kanye found the perfect primer for the song to be embraced by the TikTok streets, hence the plethora of trends that have helped the song stay viral on the platform. And, for what it’s worth, the general public sentiment towards Kanye has gotten a tiny bit kinder since his last LP. 

Angel Diaz: Playboi Carti is the easy answer here too. The kids love that dude. The honest answer, though? It’s an anthem. The football goon chant, the production, the unexpected Rich the Kid feature, the way Ty floats during his verse, Kanye’s mid verse about being cancelled or whatever, and Carti kinda, sorta sounding like a mystery rapper all makes for an unusual banger.

Carl Lamarre: Even though it didn’t chart as high as “Carnival,” I thought “Follow God” was a banger and underappreciated. For the former, it’s a matter of everybody playing their position to a tee and allowing the record to morph into this behemoth. The song has such bounce that it can elevate anything vibe-wise, ranging from a mosh pit to an intense workout. It can adapt and thrive in any environment. Expect this song to be a festival gem and sports arena go-to. 

Michael Saponara: I think “Carnival” builds off the stadium rage Ye initiated with Yeezus, which superstar artists of today like Travis Scott and Playboi Carti have carried the torch for and engrained it in rap’s mainstream. Those two, specifically, are members of the West family tree, and were clearly influenced by the futurism and rebelliousness of Yeezus. While Ye is often ahead of the curve, “Carnival” was digestible enough for hip-hop fans to spread like wildfire. 

Andrew Unterberger: Same thing that’s been true from Steam to Zombie Nation to Usher: Never underestimate the power of a good stadium chant. Especially considering most of Kanye’s new material literally makes its debut in stadium surroundings these days, it’s a natural fit that a bunch of soccer hooligans leading a partially R-rated singalong would go over with “We Will Rock You”-sized returns for him in 2024.

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4. “Carnival” has proven far and away to be the biggest breakout success from Vultures 1 so far. Do you think there’s likely to be another major hit from Vultures — and if so which track do you think is the most likely candidate? 

Kyle Denis: In my head, “Do It” is the next hit from Vultures. But that all depends on how quickly the other two Vultures projects arrive. 

Angel Diaz: It’s a toss up between “Paid” and “Vultures” for me. When was the last time we got a payday anthem? I feel like artists would mention getting paid on a Friday just in time for weekend club shenanigans in every other song back in the day. Johnny Kemp’s “Just Got Paid” immediately comes to mind, and I first thought that was the sample used at the end — but it’s actually from the Jodeci track “Get on Up” which is referencing Kemp’s hit record with the line “Friday night, let’s all get paid.” So it all comes full circle to me saying we need more payday music.

Carl Lamarre: “TALKING” has grown on me A LOT. If I’m Ye, I’m already trying to start the North West roll-out for her upcoming debut album. Imagine being the first father-daughter combo to have top 10 records in a calendar year. I’m also a huge fan of “BURN.” I can hear that song on a Rush Hour 4 or Bad Boys 4 soundtrack. It’s vintage Yeezy with a mid-90s, early 2000s feel. 

Michael Saponara: Not on Vultures 1, but other songs he’s been teasing definitely have hit potential. The Backstreet Boys-interpolating “Everybody” has been a fan-favorite at listening parties for months with the catchy chorus trading the ’90s boy band for Uncle Charlie Wilson. We’ll see if they can sort out potential clearance issues. Aligning more with the current landscape of rap, Ye and Ty have another possible banger in the arsenal with the slimy tentatively titled “Field Trip/Venom” featuring the versatile ensemble of Playboi Carti, Don Toliver and Lil Durk as guests. Those two would be my picks if they receive a proper streaming release on Vultures sequels.

Andrew Unterberger: Could definitely see “Paid” striking a vein, and the North parts of “Talking” could certainly find their way to a TikTok trend or two. But being real, Ye and Ty are already turning their attention to Vultures 2 — as will their fans in turn, no doubt — so anything that hasn’t broken out from 1 yet will probably have to wait for a random six-years-from-now revival, if anything.

5. Now that the re-mainstreaming of Kanye seems to be complete (for better or worse) following the major backlash of the past few years, do you see him once again being at the forefront of popular music like he was for most of the past two decades? Or has he been gone too long and done too much damage in recent years? 

Kyle Denis: Kanye has curated an audience that’s markedly different from the one that he pissed off with his antics over the past few years. For that reason alone, I think he’ll comfortably remain an unignorable figure in popular music. However, I don’t foresee him truly recapturing the cultural zeitgeist the way he did during his peak in the ‘00s and early ‘10s. If anything, he’ll probably continue to get more hits by way of strategic collaborations like “Carnival.” Does he get a legitimate solo smash in the coming years? I’m not sure I’d put my money on it quite yet. 

Angel Diaz: I want to say that he’ll be back on top, but I’m not sure he’s into success these days. Ye seems to be consumed by his enemies and in turn that makes him susceptible to self-sabotaging. He’s already started to do so with the latest posts he put on his Instagram Stories and feed — which have since been deleted — in which he took shots at everyone from Adidas to Christians. Someone must’ve told him to chill and enjoy his first No. 1 since 2011.

Carl Lamarre: He is enjoying a great run right now, and as a one-time super fan, despite his shenanigans, it’s interesting watching him try to bob and weave his way out of cancellation. Still, the odds of him returning to prime-time Mr. West, who was once doing blockbuster numbers in the mid-2000s, are slim because of the irreparable damage done.  

Michael Saponara: Kanye will always be part of the music mainstream scene no matter the circumstances. It definitely won’t be like the earlier portion of his career though. At this point, Ye has made it clear that he’s anti-industry, and he’s even teasing not putting his albums on streaming in the future, at least initially. Even with the backlash, he maintains the youth’s approval, but he’s just never going to operate like other music titans — and that’s what makes Ye, Ye.

Andrew Unterberger: He’s back, for sure, but he’s following as much as he’s leading now: “Carnival” has a little of that old Ye spark, but it also feels like he’s taking shortcuts to the prize rather than blazing his own path. That he can get there at all at age 46, more than two decades after his first No. 1, is certainly both impressive and meaningful. But will it inspire the same awe and reverence that his following was initially built on in the 2000s? Feels unlikely.

SZA dominated all of 2023 with her sophomore album SOS, topping the Billboard 200 for most of January and February, spawning a pair of top two Billboard Hot 100 hits in “Kill Bill” and “Snooze,” and ending with her being named our No. 2 Greatest Pop Star of the Year.

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Now, she kicks off her 2024 with the new song “Saturn” — expected to be the first taste of Lana, her much-anticipated upcoming deluxe SOS reissue. The twinkling “Saturn” bows at No. 6 on the Billboard Hot 100, already making it a higher-peaking hit than anything off SOS but “Bill” and “Snooze” — the latter of which is still kicking at No. 9 on the Hot 100, in its 63rd week on the chart.

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Does “Saturn” seem like a long-lasting hit? And what, if anything, does it tell us about what we can expect from the rest of Lana? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. “Saturn” debuts at No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that higher, lower, or about where you would’ve expected for her first new single following the blockbuster success of SOS? 

Hannah Dailey: No. 6 is a fantastic debut, and right about where I’d expect someone as huge as SZA to land with a deluxe track presumably from a reissue of an album that’s already well over a year old.  

Kyle Denis: I would say this is about where I would have expected it. Had this song dropped the night of the Grammys (during which SZA debut “Saturn” via a Mastercard commercial), it probably would have debuted a bit higher. There’s also the issue with the song’s mix getting updated after its initial release to DSPs, which resulted in a brief period of unavailability for the track. Regardless, a No. 6 debut for a relatively low-key release is certainly nothing to scoff at.

Jason Lipshutz: About where I would have expected, for a single that is preceding the Lana reissue of SOS but is not leading a whole new project. At this point, SZA is one of the biggest artists in popular music, so any new single debuting in the top 10 of the Hot 100 shouldn’t be a surprise, but “Saturn” doesn’t herald a long-awaited new full-length like “Kill Bill” (which debuted at No. 3) did with SOS, so a No. 6 start sounds about right. 

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, No. 6 sounds about right — it’s roughly in line with where the pre-SOS singles debuted, which is pretty impressive this far into the album’s cycle and while the top five on the Hot 100 has been pretty competitive of late. She’s not quite in 2011 Teenage Dream territory where even the deluxe edition cuts are debuting at No. 1, but she’s not terribly far off, either.

Christine Werthman: It’s right where I would’ve expected it to land: solidly top 10, with room to grow. SZA doesn’t have throwaway songs, so whatever ends up on Lana, the deluxe version of SOS, will be worth checking for and will likely do some damage on the charts. 

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2. “Saturn” is expected to be the first new taste of Lana, the upcoming deluxe reissue of SOS. Do you think it takes the SOS era to any particularly different or interesting new places, or does it more seem like a continuation of that album’s successes? 

Hannah Dailey: I lean more toward the latter – to me, “Saturn” feels almost like an epilogue to SOS, sonically and lyrically. The album finds SZA taking inventory of a lot of complex, difficult emotions and experiences, while the new track provides something of a thesis statement that ties them all together: “None of this matters.”  

Kyle Denis: For all intents and purposes, “Saturn” keeps us squarely in the SOS realm. Lyrically, she’s still in that place of self-deprecation laced with a touch of hope and a healthy dash of unflinching honesty. I think any song immediately post-SOS will feel like a continuation of that album’s success because it is. SOS lifted SZA’s career to new commercial heights and such a lofty debut for a less-than-seamless single release proves she’s operating at a different level now versus the years leading up to her sophomore album.

Jason Lipshutz: Based on “Saturn,” which sounds sonically and thematically in line with the primary vibe of SOS, Lana may very well be, understandably, a continuation of one of the most successful album eras of the past decade. Of course, SOS also contained plenty of stylistic curveballs, from the pop-rock of “F2F” to the alternative of “Ghost in the Machine” to the folk-pop of “Special,” so I wouldn’t expect Lana to sound like a monolith, either. I think we’re in store for a project that serves as a hard-earned victory lap, and a suggestion for where SZA might be heading next.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah I’ll let the more astrologically inclined SZAlogists determine what “Saturn” truly portends about her new era — for me, mostly sounds like a very strong leftover.

Christine Werthman: “Saturn” comfortably floats alongside the other SOS tracks, with its atmospheric vibe — but it takes a whimsical turn, largely thanks to the arpeggiated, harp-like melody running underneath. I also like the idea of SZA looking out into the universe and demanding more for herself, as she sings, “There’s got to be more, got to be more.” 

3. Do you see “Saturn” becoming a long-lasting hit like the biggest SOS singles, or do you think interest in it will mostly recede from here (at least until the full Lana release)? 

Hannah Dailey: I’m not sure how far “Saturn” will travel, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up being a slow burn hit akin to “Snooze.” It doesn’t make a huge lyrical or melodic statement the way “Kill Bill” did, but the song’s stacked harmonies and psychedelic vibes make it super replay-worthy and I can see the lyrics being full of opportunities for TikTok trends. 

Kyle Denis: I think it all depends on how invested she and her label are in this song. There was really fervent interest in “Saturn” when the commercial first aired, so now it’s time to capture that energy and stoke it with a music video and a radio push if a long-lasting hit is the goal here.

Jason Lipshutz: “Saturn” has snuck up on me — on first listen, I thought it would be a bonus track that fades into the ether of her greater discography, but its ethereal production, halting pre-chorus and far-reaching hook have called me back for more repeat listens than expected. I shouldn’t be surprised, though, since neither “Kill Bill” or “Snooze” were immediate standouts for me on SOS, and now sound positively indispensable in telling the story of SZA and her sophomore album. Who knows if “Saturn” can run in the top 10 for months like “Kill Bill” and “Snooze” have, but at this point, I’m willing to bet that it’s another pretty big hit.

Andrew Unterberger: If there’s one thing we should have learned about SZA by now, it’s that she doesn’t really do flash-in-the-pan hits — she does long, slow braises. Without a major viral moment to continue its immediate acceleration, “Saturn” may fall back some from its initial debut, but it ain’t going away anytime soon: This thing will slowly but surely burrow its way into the hearts and playlists of listeners and radio programmers, just like the last 47 SZA singles have.

Christine Werthman: I think it has the potential to endure, especially in a live performance. I imagine hearing it in a show, those twinkling notes offering a reprieve from some of the more bass-heavy songs, cuing a shift in the lighting — a gentle disruptor in the setlist. “Saturn” is light on its feet, and there’s not a ton of that in SZA’s repertoire, so I think it has a solid place in the catalog. 

4. Speaking of those biggest SOS hits — “Snooze” is still in the Hot 100’s top 10 this week, its 24th week in the region, and 63rd on the Hot 100 in general. We’re officially out of fan-favorite sleeper hit territory now — do you think we’ll remember it as a career-defining smash for SZA? 

Hannah Dailey: Absolutely. The ability to score a guns-blazing hit single is just as impressive as crafting a song that sneaks up on people with its longevity, and “Snooze” has proved that SZA is an ultimate superstar capable of both. In that way, “Snooze” is just as much a testament to her legacy as “Kill Bill.” 

Kyle Denis: Easily. I’d even go as far as to say that for a sizable number of listeners, “Snooze” has long surpassed “Kill Bill” as the quintessential SOS song. In fact, there’s a strong argument to name “Snooze” as the defining SZA song, period.

Jason Lipshutz: Obviously “Kill Bill” acted as the breakout hit of SOS and became SZA’s first Hot 100 chart-topper, but “Snooze” has helped sustain the chart run of the album for several more months and is still going strong more than a year after its release. “Snooze” is more subtle than “Kill Bill” but no less sumptuous, and features one of SZA’s most vulnerable SOS vocal performances; it’s not the most immediate choice for a multi-quadrant smash, but that’s where it’s ended up, and deservedly so. When we look back at SZA’s career as a hitmaker, “Snooze” will be crucial in telling her story.

Andrew Unterberger: It was nowhere near immediate, but now it seems head-smackingly obvious that “Snooze” was destined for all-time greatness — very arguably the defining R&B smash of the 2020s thus far. It’s increasingly clear that SZA is not an artist whose work (or whose impact) can be judged without the benefit of months (maybe years) of hindsight. In fact, if you want to disregard pretty much everything we’re saying here about “Saturn” a week and change after its release, we couldn’t really blame you.

Christine Werthman: I truly did not expect “Snooze” to blow up when I first heard it on SOS. Shows how much I know. So, do I think “Snooze” will be remembered as a career-defining smash? I mean, originally, no, but now, yes?! Here’s my case for it: super chill, romantic song, plus a spicy, cameo-filled music video, all combining to fuel its longevity. Hindsight is 20/20, people.  

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5. What’s something you’d like to hear or see from SZA during the rest of the Lana rollout?  

Hannah Dailey: I’ll be most impressed if Lana can add to the story of SOS, or make us revisit SOS in a new, unexpected way. There’s no doubt that the songs on Lana will be good, I just hope they don’t sound like a handful of random tracks that simply didn’t make the cut the first time around.

Kyle Denis: I’d like to be super surprised and hear new tracks that we haven’t gotten snippets or leaks of yet. I also think it would be really fun to put out a version of “F2F” with a little more Lizzo. She’s already in the credits there and the two have made magic before with the “Special” remix, so that would be a welcome addition to Lana.

Jason Lipshutz: Give me an even harder pivot towards pop-punk than “F2F” — something that wouldn’t sound out of place at Warped Tour. I adore “F2F” and would love for SZA to dive even deeper down that rabbit hole, if only for one song on a deluxe-edition release. Call up Travis Barker and let’s get rolling!

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t say this about many R&B artists, but I’d love to see SZA do a classic cover or two. She’s such a new-school R&B singer-songwriter, and her greatness is so wrapped up in her lyrical relatability, but what older songs does she wish she had originally penned or performed? What would her version of Erykah Badu’s “On & On” sound like? 112’s “Cupid”? Shawn Colvin’s “Sunny Came Home”? I hesitate to even predict, since I’m sure she’d go a completely different direction than what I’d expect — but regardless, I’d love to hear where that would take her.

Christine Werthman: I’m down for more SZA in space: dreamy, ethereal, but still weighted by her no-BS lyricism. The best of both planes. 

If you thought Kanye West‘s time in the mainstream was done following his most recent and most impactful round of controversies — wearing a “White Lives Matter” shirt and making repeat antisemitic comments (which has since posted a public apology in Hebrew for), among other offenses — the reception for new album Vultures 1 should dissuade you of that notion pretty quickly.

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Vultures, co-credited to West and longtime collaborator Ty Dolla $ign, debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week — moving 148,000 equivalent album units, despite missing all of that tracking week’s Friday (and some of its Saturday) with the messy rollout of its release, and drawing a mostly favorable response from longtime fans (though more mixed notices from critics). In addition, the album lands all 16 of its tracks on this week’s Billboard Hot 100 chart, led by the No. 3-bowing “Carnival,” which seems well on its way to being the album’s breakout hit.

Is the largely positive reception justified? And what does the debut mean for Kanye’s comeback? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 1 debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 148,000 first-week units. On a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think Ye and Ty should be with that debut number?

Kyle Denis: 8. For Ty, this is his first No. 1 album and the biggest sales week of his career – it doesn’t get much better than that. For Kanye, I have to imagine that this feels like a triumph. Vultures I suffered numerous delays, got yanked from DSPs mid-tracking week and served as his first attempt at an independent release. Despite all those challenges – and the general cooling on Kanye the Artist™ in the wake of his string of antisemitic comments and hate speech – he still scored his 11th No. 1 album and shifted nearly 150,000 units in a week. Nonetheless, we can’t ignore that audiences aren’t consuming Vultures as voraciously as they have Kanye’s previous solo albums – 2018’s ye, 2019’s Jesus Is King and 2021’s Donda – all of which crossed the 200,000 units mark in their first week of release. 

Carl Lamarre: If I’m Ty Dolla $ign, I’m ecstatic and through the roof. So, I’m flying high at a 10 if I’m him, considering this is his first-ever No. 1 on the Billboard 200. If I’m Kanye, I’m probably at an 8.5-9. I bumped Ye’s points down because I’m thinking about Mr. West’s ego and fragile psyche. Though this is his 11th consecutive No. 1 on the Billboard 200, this is Ye’s lowest opening week of his career (Kids See Ghosts did 142,000 but was billed as to its eponymous group with Kid Cudi in 2018). 2019’s Jesus Is King landed at 264,000 equivalent album units, while 2021’s Donda netted 309,000 equivalent album units. I don’t think Ye will lose sleep over the drop-off, especially after nailing a No. 1 album independently amid his antisemitic comments. For now, I’m sure Mr. West feels Teflon. 

Michael Saponara: 10. I think as long as they were well into six-figure sales and debuted at No. 1 this was a major victory for Ye and Ty – especially with the project being released independently and facing sampling and distributor issues messing with its availability on streamers throughout the week.

Damien Scott: Ye and Ty should be happy that Vultures 1 debuted at No. 1. Putting aside all the pump fakes on release day, which saw the album being taken down and re-posted on various streaming services, Ye’s acidic language and antics over the past year or so turned himself and anyone who associated with him radioactive. So, there was no telling how people would respond to a new project from him, especially one that’s been so sloppily rolled out. The lukewarm reception to the album’s advance title track didn’t help matters. So, I’ll say 10 — this is about as good as things could have went for Ye and Ty.

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say an 8. It’s not the kind of head-turning number West pulled up with previous releases — some of which were much less commercial-sounding than this — but it’s still an A-list number for 2024, especially in an incomplete first week. For a guy who’s spent the past few years being as toxic as Ye has, I’m sure even that level of embrace feels like a major win. (And obviously Ty should be thrilled with his first-ever No. 1 on the 200, even though it feels like he’s getting it in more of a supporting role.)

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2. In addition to the album debuting at No. 1, the album’s focus track “Carnival” debuts at No. 3 on the Hot 100, the highest-charting single for either artist this decade. Do you see it being a long-lasting hit, or will it fade relatively quickly following its bow? 

Kyle Denis: I think it will probably stick around the upper half of the chart should its streams remain consistent. “Carnival” is a song that works best live, so should a tour follow the duo’s Rolling Loud date, Kanye and Ty could have a genuine smash on their hands. On the other hand, “Do It” stands out as a possible hit thanks to that “Back That Azz Up” interpolation, as does the North West-assisted “Talking,” but that’s already had its day in the sun. 

Carl Lamarre: I can see “Carnival” in the top 20 for the next few weeks, especially with Kanye and Ty taking Vultures on the road with their upcoming headlining performance at Rolling Loud. We haven’t seen many new hip-hop songs crash the top 20 this year except 21 Savage’s “Redrum” and Flo Milli’s “Never Lose Me.” With the fierce combination of Ye, Dolla $, Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid, this song will be living at the top of the playlists for ragers and mosh-pit fanatics, especially with festival season underway.

Michael Saponara: Getting added to RapCaviar after having the most-streamed song of the week is a positive development in that regard, as Ye has been pretty much shut out of any radio play thus far with Vultures 1. If he does deliver on second and third volumes of Vultures, I believe “Carnival” will get washed ashore, but it’s far from a guarantee another batch West and Ty Dolla tunes are on the way in the coming weeks. 

Damien Scott: A few factors make it difficult to predict whether “Carnival” will stay on the charts or not. The biggest one is Ye’s unpredictability when it comes to following through with any plans he’s shared with the public. Judging from social media it seems like his team is going to try to capitalize on the moment by trying to institute a challenge and maybe shooting a video. But who knows. He could just as easily forget about the whole album and move onto Vultures 2 or whatever he wants to do next.

Andrew Unterberger: Certainly sounds like a smash to me. For better or worse.

3. Though critics’ takes have been mixed, Vultures seems to have the strongest reception among Kanye fans perhaps since The Life of Pablo. Do you see this album as a true return to form for Ye, or is that reception more a testament to the quality of his other recent releases? 

Kyle Denis: An album whose best tracks can barely stand shoulder-to-shoulder with most of The Life of Pablo is simply not a true return to form for Ye. I think the messy, sprawling tracklists and middling dips into different genres on his last few projects make Vultures feel like a promise of pre-2018 Kanye… but this is not that. While there are flashes of brilliance on the record, Vultures feels too redundant to be a great Kanye West record. 

Carl Lamarre: Lyrically, this was a porous showing by Ye compared to previous projects. Donda was a very slept-on album. Shed the fat and cut down the tracks by a few, and you have unquestionably one of the decade’s strongest hip-hop albums. As for the current album at hand, Ye’s production prowess remains God Level and is one of the reasons why he skates through the controversies. Anybody can be a beatmaker, but Ye’s musical arrangements, placement of guests, and usage of Ty’s voice as the lead instrument for Vultures made this album a solid showing. 

Michael Saponara: It’s a return to form in the fact this is the most “finished” body of work Ye has had since TLOP. He achieved the balance of having Vultures act as a fit inside the 2024 rap zeitgeist while also still being a sonic pioneer and curator for others to catch up to. I just have a tough time comparing Vultures to albums from well over a decade ago in West’s discography and think it’s an unfair bar to set.

Damien Scott: I don’t think Ye ever lost his form. He’s taken a bunch of diversions and clearly lost focus for a long moment. But I don’t think he ever forgot how to make music. Donda was a bloated mess of an album that had a bunch of half-finished sketches and ideas, but mixed in among those skeletons were moments of real brilliance. Vultures 1 is his most focused work since in years— all the songs are complete and seemingly finished; and the tracklist is not an unruly 20+ songs. The whole thing seems more considered than anything he’s released since TLOP.

Andrew Unterberger: Front to back, it’s probably both his most-satisfying and least-interesting album since Pablo. Like most of that album, Vultures feels sonically enveloping and masterful but lyrically sneering and obnoxious. For all hate that Ye got, give me a song as difficult and revealing as “I Thought About Killing You” or “Ghost Town” over pretty much any of the pit-starting anthems here.

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4. Despite being a co-billed artist on Vultures, Ty Dolla $ign has largely been relegated to a supporting role by most discussions of the album. Do you think it’s fair to mostly treat this as a Kanye album, or does that shortchange Ty’s contributions to the project? 

Kyle Denis: Kanye is clearly a more dominant vocal presence on Vultures, but Ty’s contributions are just as interesting and important. However, I find it more pressing to think about Ty’s involvement from a marketing/cultural standpoint. There’s a reason that Kanye did not return with a solo album. There’s a reason that he chose Ty Dolla $ign to embark on this journey alongside, and there’s a reason Ty agreed to the ride. We’re aware that Kanye is probably the most controversial mainstream musician in the world, so for his first full-length project since his worst phase of public perception yet to be a joint record is intriguing. To a certain extent, Kanye needed a less polarizing name attached to the record, but how does Ty reconcile the music with Kanye’s past few years?

Vultures may sound more like a Kanye solo album than a proper collaborative project, but we would be remiss not to properly grapple with the record in the way it was presented to us. 

Carl Lamarre: It’s what I said in answer No. 3: Ye is undoubtedly the conductor of this train. It goes beyond raps because he weaves in Ty and fits him in certain pockets. Ty is elite, but his bread and butter have always been hooks and features. What I would love to see for Ty — so his career doesn’t strictly lead with being Kanye’s sidekick — is having his next solo album executive-produced by Ye. That would be most beneficial for him as a solo artist. 

Michael Saponara: From a cultural standpoint, West was always going to dominate the conversation with all of the controversy surrounding him for the last couple of years. As for the music, Ty deserves a ton of credit for steering the ship at times and keeping Ye from going creatively off the rails on some tracks. West and Ty have proven to be cerebral collaborators and have a propensity to bring the best out of those they’re working with.

Damien Scott: I think that shortchanges Ty’s contributions to the album. The album is unmistakably a Kanye project in fit and finish. It’s kind of trippy listening to it because it’s an ouroboros of Ye musical history. All of the sounds and styles were originated or popularized by Ye at some point over the past 20 years, whether it’s the stripped down industrial maximalism of Yeezus or warm soulful bounce of TCD. It’s all here. But Ty does a good bit of heavy lifting, keeping the album balanced, making it more palatable and grounded than if Ye was left to his own devices. That must have been a tough task.

Andrew Unterberger: Love Ty and he is a welcome presence for much of Vultures — but the number of co-stars who could stand next to a personality as huge and self-centering as Kanye’s and not get chewed up along with the rest of the scenery is a short one, and does not include him.

5. West has obviously dealt with a tremendous amount of backlash in the past few years given his recent inflammatory statements and controversies. What does the debut of Vultures say to you about Kanye’s current standing in the mainstream, and how it’s changed in recent years (if at all)? 

Kyle Denis: To me, Vultures shows that Kanye is too big to disappear – at least for right now. He’ll always have an audience, and the ratio of dedicated fans to nosy detractors will fluctuate in tandem with his public perception. Moreover, Vultures could be a signal that people are generally weary of Kanye and his shenanigans. Even with its bevy of release-week controversies, Vultures didn’t feel as culturally dominant as Donda or Pablo or even Jesus Is King, to a lesser extent. Of course, these aren’t 1:1 comparisons, so maybe we will have to wait and see how the other two Vultures projects fare.

Carl Lamarre: No matter how deep Kanye sinks, fans will continue to throw him a life raft. Many have chucked deuces to Mr. West after his “slavery is a choice” and anti-semitic comments. Deservingly so, Ye lost endorsements and fans for his ignorance and hateful comments. Still, his legions of fans find ways to separate the art from the artist and come in droves every time a new album drops. That speaks to Ye’s musical career and its lasting impact on many people, especially as he’s now two decades deep into it.

Michael Saponara: It speaks loudly to those who have supported him and will continue to do so with an imaginary line being drawn in the sand. There’s still clearly a massive appetite for Ye, as Rolling Loud added an extra day for him and Ty Dolla $ign to perform next month. That doesn’t seem like it’s destined to change in the near future either, as long as the music/clothing remains up to par and culturally influential. What’s different is the scale at which he operates now creating independently, without the backing of industry titans such as Universal, Adidas and Balenciaga.

Damien Scott: While Vultures 1 went No. 1, it didn’t perform nearly as well as Donda. For example, it was the most streamed album in 24 hours on Spotify in 2021. This isn’t that. His antics and statements have done a good deal of irreversible damage. He’s still a massively famous artist, though — one who hasn’t performed live regularly in a long time, so it’s not surprising to see fans clamoring to see him in concert and at Rolling Loud. That said, I don’t think Vultures has done much to change his standing in the mainstream. But Ye has. His recent apology and his renewed focus on his music and apparel makes it seem as if he’s turned a corner. How long that will last is anyone’s guess.

Andrew Unterberger: Kanye was never going to totally disappear from the mainstream until he actively chose to do so. If nothing else, the more crowd-pleasing nature of Vultures (and the mild contrition he showed in advance of its release) shows that even as a now-independent artist, Ye has no interest in operating at the fringes — he still wants to be in a place to move the culture. It shouldn’t be particularly surprising to anyone that he still can.