five burning questions
It’s all been out of the ordinary for Alex Warren since his breakthrough hit started climbing the Billboard Hot 100 in February. Since then, the influencer-turned-singer-songwriter has conquered streaming and sales and gotten closer and closer on radio — to the point that now, he has the No. 1 song in the country.
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“Ordinary” rises to the Hot 100’s apex this week (chart dated June 7), in its 16th frame on the listing — replacing Morgan Wallen’s Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” and making Warren the second artist in 2025 to top the Hot 100 for the first time, after McRae. At the same time, he debuts at No. 32 with “Bloodline,” a teamup with country star Jelly Roll.
How did “Ordinary” end up going all the way? And will be “Bloodline” be following it to the chart’s top tier? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. “Ordinary” reaches the Hot 100’s apex in its 16th week on the chart. Are you surprised it was able to get all the way to the top spot, or did you see this coming for It once it started climbing?
Katie Atkinson: Once it started climbing, No. 1 seemed very possible — having seen some similar trajectories for other big-voiced male ballads in the last year-plus — but while “Lose Control” and “Too Sweet” hit the summit in 2024, “Beautiful Things” never made it, so “Ordinary” wasn’t a lock. And then when it overcame the 13-week run of Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther” last week only to be kept out of No. 1 by a deluge of new Morgan Wallen songs, it felt like there was a world where it might not happen. So this has to feel extraordinary for Warren that his breakthrough hit muscled through.
Kyle Denis: Once “Ordinary” started climbing, I did think it would reach the top spot, given how stagnant the Hot 100 is right now and the lack of new 2025 releases cementing themselves as bonafide hits. Nonetheless, I’m still a bit surprised that it hit No. 1 because I don’t rate it as one of the more interesting pop songs we’ve gotten this year.
Lyndsey Havens: Shocked! But just momentarily — as I was quickly reminded that this song has been everywhere. I think this song has enjoyed a nice and steady climb, and as the song of summer conversation is just kicking off, it’s possible “Ordinary” snuck in just in time before a new hit, or longer-loved contender, knocks it from the top.
Jason Lisphutz: I’m somewhere in the middle: when “Ordinary” first reached the top 10, I was a little dubious of its longterm prospects, but for about six weeks or so I was convinced that it would eventually take over the top spot. With a pretty staggering global listenership, unflagging U.S. streams and increasing radio buy-in, “Ordinary” has been a multi-platform smash for a while now, and its rise to No. 1 is no chart fluke.
Andrew Unterberger: If you had told me four months ago, I would’ve been pretty surprised — but this is the kind of hit song that, as soon as it reaches a certain escape velocity, feels almost guaranteed to make it all the way to the moon. So once it jumped into the top 40 on the Hot 100 and started to catch on radio, a No. 1 peak felt practically pre-determined.
2. What do you think is the biggest reason why “Ordinary” was able to really break containment and become one of the year’s biggest hits?
Katie Atkinson: While his first-ever awards show performance at last week’s AMAs was perfectly timed with the song’s ascent, I’m going to nod to radio for this one. If you turn on the radio across pop, adult pop and AC right now, you will hear “Ordinary” within the hour. Maybe within a half-hour, really. This song has felt as inescapable as songs come these days, so with its 15% bump across radio last week (plus no major new album releases), that was the final push it needed.
Kyle Denis: “Ordinary” largely operates in the same vocal and guitar-driven pop-rock space that’s housed recent Hot 100 chart-toppers like Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” and Hozier’s “Too Sweet.” With Myles Smith (“Stargazing”), Benson Boone (“Beautiful Things”) and Shaboozey (“Good News”) all earning hits with different takes on the sound, consumers clearly haven’t gotten tired of it yet. Of course, it also helps that TikTok has latched onto the song, with the official “Ordinary” sound playing in over 573,000 posts on the platform.
Lyndsey Havens: Omnipresence. I turn on the TV and “Ordinary” has a major synch. I turn on the radio and “Ordinary” is playing — and if I change the station, it will be on at least one other at the same time. I walk into a store and “Ordinary” is blasting. The song is connecting across every medium, yet Warren and his team aren’t only banking on this one hit: At the same time that he’s enjoying breakout success — with the song topping both the Hot 100 and Billboard Global 200 — the artist also teamed up with Jelly Roll for their collab, “Bloodline,” which is already trailing behind “Ordinary” on the Hot 100.
Jason Lipshutz: A little over a year after Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” and Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” became inescapable hits — and pretty much remain so today — a market still exists for brash, soulful sing-alongs from full-throated male pop vocalists. Alex Warren likely would have found success with a song as rousing and crowd-pleasing as “Ordinary” regardless of pop trends, but the song certainly hit streaming services at the exact right moment to reach its commercial ceiling.
Andrew Unterberger: America loves us some big-voiced singers and acoustic guitars at the moment! But also, with everything from pop 10 years ago seemingly huge again, a song that splits the difference between Hozier and wedding-ballad Ed Sheeran was probably always going to hit extra hard.
3. At the same time “Ordinary” snags the top spot, Warren’s new Jelly Roll collab “Bloodline” debuts at No. 32 on the Hot 100. Do you think it will grow into another big hit for Warren, or will its momentum get curtailed by how big “Ordinary” still is?
Katie Atkinson: I would not be surprised at all if “Bloodline” — with a jangly sea-shanty melody that is undeniable catnip for AC radio and two newly minted hitmakers at its helm — also climbs to the Hot 100 top 10 over time. That would give Jelly Roll his first hit in the region, which is really the one thing missing from the country star’s meteoric rise to pop culture ubiquity. The virality of both “Ordinary” and Jelly Roll himself could combine for an obvious smash.
Kyle Denis: I think listeners will probably remain focused on “Ordinary” since it’s still relatively fresh, but, as they say, a rising tide lifts all boats!
Lyndsey Havens: I think because you have Jelly Roll on the song, and because the country star is currently on a massive tour with Post Malone, that “Bloodline” could grow into a nice follow-up hit for Warren. But does he need it? No way. If “Bloodline” climbs higher or if it gets curtailed by “Ordinary,” it’s a win for Warren either way.
Jason Lipshutz: Releasing a follow-up single with Jelly Roll was a smart move by Warren, who can now promote both a pop and country track to different audiences without deflating either of their performances. “Bloodline” will likely not become nearly as big as “Ordinary,” but it doesn’t need to — as long as it can expand his listenership and keep his momentum up beyond just one song, the follow-up should be viewed as a success.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t see it reaching the top 10 — maybe not even the top 20 — but I could see it hanging around the Hot 100 for 30 weeks or so and establishing Warren as officially Not a One-Hit Wonder. Which is all he really needs to do.
4. We’ve seen a trend lately of songs that make it to the chart’s top tier – particularly if they had a long journey of climbing that high – lasting in or around the top 10 for a year or longer. Do you see “Ordinary” becoming one of those songs?
Katie Atkinson: Absolutely. Like “Lose Control” before it, this song will not be vacating its spot for months. It just fits too comfortably and too unassumingly in too many spaces to go anywhere anytime soon.
Kyle Denis: Unfortunately, yes. This is the kind of song destined for extended stays on a litany of radio formats, which will help it stick around on the Hot 100 even once it’s reached its sales and streaming peaks.
Lyndsey Havens: Totally. And that’s because of its omnipresence — and the reasons why it’s everywhere. “Ordinary” is the perfect type of hit that’s equal parts catchy, soaring and safe. It sounds just as great soundtracking a Golden Buzzer moment on America’s Got Talent as it does playing from a car radio with the windows rolled down. Its breezy balladry and luck-to-be-in-love lyrics share roots with a song like Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” — and we all know how well that’s worked out.
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. Every piece of empirical and anecdotal evidence suggests that “Ordinary” is not slowing down whatsoever, despite already being on the Hot 100 for months on end. While I could see Warren being supplanted at No. 1 on the chart in the near future, “Ordinary” is acting like the type of song that will still be in the top 10 when the weather starts to turn cold — and possibly for much longer after that.
Andrew Unterberger: Teddy Swims is already looking over his shoulder tbh.
5. Who’s another past or present influencer who you could see scoring a No. 1 hit?
Katie Atkinson: I wouldn’t bet against Addison Rae. Her first album arrives Friday, and while lead single “Diet Pepsi” topped out at No. 54 on the Hot 100, it was a top 10 hit on Pop Airplay, peaking at No. 9 in February. And starting her career making dance videos on TikTok sets her up perfectly for a hypervisual pop career. Plus, only our finest pop stars hail from Louisiana, and Addison was born and raised less than two hours from Britney Spears’ hometown.
Kyle Denis: Addison Rae.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m always rooting for jxdn. But, given the current week, let’s go Addison.
Jason Lipshutz: Does Addison Rae count? Every pop single she’s released to date has been good-to-excellent, and my expectations for her imminent debut album are sky-high. A world in which “Headphones On” grows into a late-breaking No. 1 hit is one I want to inhabit.
Andrew Unterberger: Addison Rae feels like the logical call — but I’ll swerve and say Mr. Beast. No I don’t know of any musical ambitions harbored by the man, but it feels near-certain to me that he’ll be involved with leading an influencer all-star charity single at some point. Would you bet the under on that chart debut? I certainly wouldn’t.
Another new album, another historic week on the charts for Morgan Wallen.
On this week’s Billboard 200 (dated May 31), Wallen’s new album I’m the Problem follows his previous releases Dangerous: The Double Album and One Thing at a Time to a No. 1 debut — this time with a 2025-best 493,000 units moved, according to Luminate, falling just 8,000 short of the 501,000 posted by One Thing upon its 2023 bow. (The latter album, which spent a 2020s-best 19 weeks atop the chart, holds at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, while Dangerous slides from No. 11-12.)
Meanwhile, it launches 29 new tracks onto the Billboard Hot 100, joining eight returning Wallen Hot 100 hits for a record-setting 37 simultaneous entries on the chart, breaking his own record of 36 from One Thing‘s debut week. The 37 tracks are led by the Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” which debuts atop the chart — marking Wallen’s fourth No. 1 on the listing, and McRae’s first.
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How do these incredible numbers compare to our pre-release expectations? And will I’m the Problem end up lasting on the chart the way its predecessors have.
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1. Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem debuts at No. 1 with 493,000 units moved – the biggest first-week number of 2025, and just 8,000 off the total One Thing at a Time bowed with two years earlier. Is that number higher, lower or about what you expected?
Elias Leight: That count seems right on target. Streams fell off a little from One Thing at a Time, but sales increased. And Wallen had his best sales week ever on vinyl, with 48,000 copies sold.
Jason Lipshutz: About what I expected. Morgan Wallen’s sky-high popularity with country fans has remained more or less consistent over the past few years, and while none of the singles from I’m the Problem have been as chart-dominant as “Last Night” from One Thing at a Time (yet), he’s still been able to rattle off No. 1 hits in the interim, including “Love Somebody” from the new album. Multiply that maintained success with another sprawling track list, and it’s no surprise that I’m the Problem bowed with a similar stat line to his previous 30-plus-song full-length.
Melinda Newman: It feels downright petty to say I’m surprised it didn’t surpass One Thing at a Time’s opening week — though 8,000 down is a blip when you’re in the half million range. However, Wallen’s star has only continued to ascend, and the huge pop success of “I Had Some Help” with Post Malone for sure introduced him to new fans, which made me think his first week would have been higher.
Jessica Nicholson: That number is slightly lower than what I would have expected, given that the length of this album (just barely) exceeds the length of One Thing at a Time, and this album includes many of the same collaborators, including Eric Church and ERNEST, as its predecessor, in addition to another Post Malone collab.
Andrew Unterberger: Almost exactly what I predicted, maybe a tiny bit higher. The trending of the streaming numbers for Wallen’s latest round of pre-release tracks indicated that he might have been in for a bit of a dip there from One Thing at a Time, which the vinyl release predictably mostly offset anyway. The Morgan Wallen rocket ship may have finally hit its peak, but we still probably have some time before it defintively starts heading back down to earth.
2. All but one of the 37 of the tracks hit the Hot 100 this week, led by the brand new Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want” at No. 1. Does the song sound like the obvious breakout hit of the non-previously-released tracks on the set, or do you think another will ultimately pass it?
Elias Leight: There are a few songs that sound like potential hits: “TN,” co-written by Ashley Gorley, the man with 75 No. 1s on his resume, has stadium singalong ambitions and a strikingly memorable chorus, all staccato state abbreviations and slippery assonance, while “Kick Myself” takes the self-recrimination that courses throughout the album and dresses it up as sunny pop-rock.
That said: On One Thing at a Time, the obvious breakout was not necessarily the massive hit. The title track, which translated late 1970s Fleetwood Mac into commercial country gold, seemed like a slam dunk; it peaked at No. 10 on the Hot 100. Meanwhile, the more muscular country hip-hop hybrid “Last Night” spent 16 weeks at No. 1.
Jason Lipshutz: While “What I Want” isn’t the most immediate song on the I’m the Problem track list, the combined star power of Wallen and McRae is too sizable to deny, or bet against. Wallen has linked up with McRae at the exact right point for maximum commercial gains, considering the hot streak that the ascendant pop star has been on over the past two years; following hits like “Greedy” and “Sports Car,” and by far the biggest album debut of her career with So Close to What, McRae is enjoying a sharp upward trajectory, with plenty of attention paid to any new music. Considering that Wallen’s core fan base remains country listeners, McRae’s appearance on “What I Want” should continue to corral curious pop fans, and power the song to a sustained chart run.
Melinda Newman: In terms of the Hot 100, it felt like the immediate go-to since it paired Wallen with a rising pop star and was his first duet with a woman (which was a goal of his after releasing several duets with male artists). The song feels a little ephemeral and unlikely to best the six weeks “I Had Some Help” spent at No. 1. As far as a song surpassing it, that really depends upon what that the label decides to push at radio. They’ve released some of the top selections already and the Post Malone collaboration on this set, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” doesn’t have the zest of “I Had Some Help” (and has already been released weeks ago to streamers).
Jessica Nicholson: Cross-genre collabs tend to do pretty well in garnering Hot 100 hits and this song has definitely raised its hand as a fan favorite. I feel like this is likely the Hot 100 breakout hit of the non-previously released songs.
Andrew Unterberger: I think its primary competition at the top of the charts in the weeks to come isn’t from any of the other new tracks, but from “Just in Case,” the advance track that still seems to have the most juice among his fans (and for my money is the best of the ITP singles thusfar). It might come down to which radio gloms onto first, though certainly with the built-in pop appeal of “What I Want” — thanks to the presence of another already-minted radio star in McRae — it should have the higher ceiling there.
3. Wallen’s 37 simultaneous entries on the Hot 100 (also including his feature appearance on Post Malone’s 2024 Song of the Summer “I Had Some Help”) breaks a record he had previously set with the One Thing release week. Do you think this will be his last time breaking that record, or do you see his albums getting even bigger in size and/or popularity in the future?
Elias Leight: As big as he is, there are still pockets of listeners who don’t listen to much country and seem to be finding out about him for the first time (several of them appear to be music critics). And in a streaming-happy world, there is nothing preventing Wallen from releasing a 50-track album next time — though the vinyl copies would start to get a little unwieldy. He could put out a call for songs tomorrow and get bombarded with 100 top-shelf demos.
But even if he breaks the record again, at a certain point, the law of diminishing returns kicks in; adding tracks 40 to 45 has a lot less impact than adding tracks 15 to 20. And as Wallen told Theo Von, when writing that many songs, it becomes “hard to not say the same things I’ve said before.” “A lot of things that were successful and easy in the past were just whiskey, drinkin’, all that stuff,” he explained. “I’ve almost explored every angle of that that’s possible.”
Jason Lipshutz: I mean, never bet against Morgan Wallen releasing a hit album with an improbably long track list — maybe the next one has 40 songs, or 50! — but 37 is a LOT OF simultaneous entries on the Hot 100 chart. I’m going to go against conventional wisdom and say that this is a high-water mark that Wallen either won’t try to top, or won’t be able to top, on his next effort, and that no one else will, either; I could see this record standing for quite a while.
Melinda Newman: He’s created a monster of his own doing. His fans have rewarded him for the mega-packages with huge streaming numbers so there’s no real reason to stop now. He’s proven critic-proof and for good reason. Almost every review, including Billboard’s, criticizes the number of tracks and the sheer number tread the same heartbreak road, but our opinion doesn’t mean squat to him (and shouldn’t). On the other hand, he’s set enough records that I’m not sure he needs to keep chasing them, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the next album is less. He could cut back to 15 now and simply say that was how many he was inspired to record, or he could go to 50 and say the same. He’s writing his own rules at this point.
Jessica Nicholson: It is possible that this could be his last time breaking that record, as fans could eventually get fatigued by super-sized albums. However, his most recent albums have been blockbusters and his fans are fervent about any new music he releases, so I could certainly see his next release being as lengthy or even longer.
Andrew Unterberger: I feel like the streaming numbers dipping slightly for this release despite the even-more-packed tracklist means that Wallen and his team have basically taken the volume approach as far as it’ll go. That doesn’t mean that his next album will only be 12 tracks or anything — nobody wants to risk their numbers potentially being cut in half, or worse — but I’d best this arms race he’s been waging with himself over the past couple albums’ tracklists might be coming to an end, at least.
4. If you could have Wallen go further into any particular direction that he explores on I’m the Problem – either musical or thematic – where would you have him go?
Elias Leight: He’s rightly gotten a lot of credit for his easy way with genre hybrids. This savvy blending defines some of his biggest hits, including “Last Night” and “You Proof”; strip the guitar off “Just in Case” and it could be a song for Drake or SZA, while “Miami” would barely need any adjustments to fit onto RapCaviar. But there’s also Wallen’s buoyantly tuneful side, the stuff of “One Thing at a Time” and “Single Than She Was” on the last album and “TN” on this one. On a long album full of romantic vitriol and emotional desolation, songs in this mode provide brief eruptions of uplift — a necessary counterbalance.
Jason Lipshutz: Regardless of style or quality, any 37-song album is going to feel less focused than a full-length with a more traditional track list. I would love for Wallen to try and make his next project a 10-track affair — whittling down his collection to his strongest material, and presenting his most cohesive artistic statement. Wallen has conquered his genre with these sprawling, stream-happy albums, but such a move could prioritize creative growth in a bold new way.
Melinda Newman: The songs that are the most compelling on the album are the ones where he gets away from woe-is-me love songs (though he’s got that down) and looks at the world around him like “Working Man’s Song.” Hands down, the best song on the album is album closer “I’m a Little Crazy,” where he — like most of us — feels burdened by the insanity he sees around him, and yet is unable to look away. The world-weary tone of his vocals suits the song’s message perfectly and he manages to record and issue-oriented song without taking a political stand, which is not an easy feat these days.
Jessica Nicholson: At least one song on the album, “Working Man’s Song,” finds Wallen digging into twangy Southern rock territory and lets him display a gravelly side to his voice that we don’t often hear. Also, songs such as “Jack and Jill” are a departure from the heavy string of heartbreak songs on this album, and it would be nice to hear him continue delving into other such topics.
Andrew Unterberger: In my opinion, the most consistently engaging Wallen material always comes when he takes a real hard look at himself — not in the sense where he allows that he occasionally drinks too much and behaves poorly in relationships, but in the sense where he acknowledges that his fundamental impulses are self-destructive in a way that he legitimately doesn’t know if he can (or would) get away from. “Kick Myself” is the perfect example from this album, and perhaps the best song on here; I wish he returned to the subject as often as he returns to whiskey and romantic toxicity.
5. As I’m the Problem debuts, One Thing at a Time remains in the Billboard 200’s top five, and even 2021’s Dangerous: The Double Album is just outside the top 10. By the time of Wallen’s next album, do you expect I’m the Problem will have shown similar chart endurance?
Elias Leight: Dangerous: The Double Album is the top Billboard 200 album of the 21st century, while One Thing at a Time broke Garth Brooks’ record for most weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 for a country album. Both those releases spent at least 100 weeks in the top 10, making Wallen the first artist to ever accomplish that feat. Barring a comet hitting the earth or a zombie apocalypse, I’m the Problem will be in circulation for a long time.
Jason Lipshutz: Sure. What evidence is there to doubt him? Over the past half-decade, Wallen’s superpower has been his ability to release albums that linger around the top of the Billboard 200 for years and years, in a way that has become singular in its might. I’m the Problem could be more or less potent than his previous albums, depending on who you ask — but its one inarguable commercial quality is that it will be on the charts for a long, long time.
Melinda Newman: Yes. He’d already had three No. 1s on Country Airplay with songs from the set before its release and the one thing we’ve learned is there seems to be no burn-out on Wallen’s music with his fans. They soak up whatever he is putting out and can’t seem to get enough. There are several more songs that are sure to be released to radio which will bring in casual fans who haven’t already worn a hole in the album yet. His music wears well and it wouldn’t surprise me if two years from now when we have a new Wallen album that he has two or three albums still in the top 15.
Jessica Nicholson: It likely will. There are already some sharp fan-favorites on this album, like “Just in Case,” “Love Somebody” the Eric Church collab “Number 3 and Number 7” and the McRae duet. With his upcoming tour dates sure to feature many songs on this project, it will give fans even more reason to keep streaming its many songs.
Andrew Unterberger: I expect its endurance relative to One Thing will be like its first week numbers — maybe not quite as potent, but close enough you’d have to really squint to see much of a difference.
Before this month, no hard rock act had topped the Billboard 200 albums chart in nearly a half-decade. Now, two have done it in three weeks.
Two weeks ago, Ghost nabbed the chart’s top spot with its Skeletá set, and this week (on the chart dated May 25), Sleep Token claims pole position for the first time with its new album Even in Arcadia. The album bows with 127,000 units, according to Luminate — with over 50,000 each in sales and streaming equivalent albums — while all 10 of its tracks appear on this week’s Billboard Hot 100, albeit in the chart’s lower half.
How did Sleep Token end up netting such explosive first-week numbers? And what does it mean for the mainstream embrace of hard rock in general? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Sleep Token’s Even in Arcadia debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week with 127,000 units – its first No. 1 on the chart. Is that performance better, worse or about what you would’ve expected from it?
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Eric Renner Brown: Frankly, any rock album – broadly defined – topping the Billboard 200 in 2025 surprises me; that Sleep Token managed to do 62% and 72% of Bad Bunny and Tate McRae’s respective first-week units from earlier this year is something the anonymous band should be proud of. But the fact that it was Sleep Token that slipped through in a somewhat quiet week on the chart tracks: This type of loud, rap-inflected rock music is what’s broken through to the mainstream most effectively in recent years.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: This is about what I would have expected from them. Their buzz was incredibly strong before they even began to roll out Arcadia. Their last album Take Me Back to Eden hit No. 16 on the Billboard 200 back in 2023, which was very surprising considering all eyes were on Hip-Hop for its 50th birthday. Not to mention, all three of Arcadia’s advance tracks hit the Hot 100 heading into its release. You throw in dozens TikTok conspiracy theories surrounding the band’s lore, and yep, I think fans were really eager to dive into this album.
Kyle Denis: Definitely better. My Billboard 200 expectations for non-legacy hard rock bands in the 2020s are basically in the basement.
Jason Lipshutz: Better. The performance of the singles leading up to Even in Arcadia, combined with upcoming sold-out arena dates and the band’s new partnership with RCA Records, suggested a career-best bow for Sleep Token — but a six-figure, No. 1 bow for a hard rock act is increasingly rare, especially for a band that’s not a decades-running brand name like Metallica or Tool. Even the most bullish Sleep Token fans couldn’t have foreseen a debut with 127,000 equivalent album units, considering that it’s a number without much recent precedent.
Andrew Unterberger: I’m surprised by how not surprised I am. Sleep Token is exactly the sort of cult rock act who sells well with its devoted fanbase, and now that it’s also become the sort of act who debuts on the Hot 100 with all three of your album’s advance tracks — and not just in the 80s or 90s, but as high as No. 34 (with “Caramel”) — clearly its streaming prowess is quite considerable as well. I might’ve guessed a little lower for its final first-week tally, but I would have guessed six digits. And that’s pretty wild for a rock band in 2025.
2. One of the more notable things about Arcadia’s first-week performance – particularly as far as rock albums go — is its relatively even split in terms of sales and streams: 73,500 in sales and 53,000 streaming equivalent album units. Which of those two numbers is more significant, do you think?
Eric Renner Brown: The streaming figure is more significant to me, because it demonstrates that the album’s popularity extends beyond diehards who might have already been committed to buying it. With such a high streaming number, Even In Arcadia was likely making its way to plenty of new Sleep Token listeners – and resonating enough with existing ones that they were returning to it after release.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: The sales number is definitely telling in regards to the chokehold Sleep Token lore has on the group’s supporters. Fans have been dissecting their lyrics and digging for easter eggs for months now, and it’s become less about trying to learn the band’s identity and more about engaging in the world Sleep Token is building. I think fans thought they’d learn more info if they bought physical copies of the record, which may or may not be true! Either way, it translates to a great sales week for them.
Kyle Denis: Arcadia pulling in 53,000 streaming equivalent album units during its first week is very impressive. Rock has had some difficulty finding its footing as the industry transitioned into the streaming era, and you really wouldn’t need more than two hands to count the amount of new rock bands that have broken through on a mainstream, Billboard chart-topping level in recent years. I think a hard rock band pulling these streaming figures – with just one career top 40 hit! — bodes well for not only their longevity, but also the general health of the genre in the streaming era.
Jason Lipshutz: The sales figure. Seeing multiple Arcadia tracks on daily streaming charts during the week following the album release was impressive, but the fact that the album moved that many copies right off the bat illustrates just how huge of a fan base Sleep Token has developed, and how hungry they were for another chapter in their story. Plenty of arena-level acts have struggled to get their fans invested in new material, but the Arcadia sales figure suggests that Sleep Token’s devoted listenership has not plateaued whatsoever.
Andrew Unterberger: The streams are certainly more newsworthy, but the sales are arguably more significant for the band itself. Once you become a band that can move physical units like that — and even without a single stream, Arcadia still would’ve sold enough for it to top the Billboard 200 this week — you’re basically golden; that fanbase investment is rock-solid enough that you’ll probably never be depending on living hit-to-hit again.
3. Also unusual for an album by a rock band: Arcadia notches all 10 of its tracks on the Hot 100 (though all in the chart’s bottom half). Do you think there’s a song that could endure as a lasting breakout hit, or is it mostly about the full album with Sleep Token?
Eric Renner Brown: Songs like “Look To Windward” and “Infinite Baths” are simply too long to have much crossover appeal on their own, outside of the album. But shorter tracks like “Past Self” are rhythmic earworms that call to mind Twenty One Pilots’ biggest hits – and could have similar breakout potential.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: A Sleep Token record as a whole is definitely more appealing to its core fans, but it’s clear this time around there are certain songs geared more heavily for general consumption. “Caramel,” “Past Self,” “Provider,” are all ready to conquer the algorithms, which is just what happens when you have a machine like RCA pushing your album. We’ll likely start to hear these songs outside more and more, but only time will tell if the general public goes for it.
Kyle Denis: I think it’s probably mostly about the full album, but I think both “Caramel” and “Damocles” could stick around longer than most expect. Both tracks offer fans who may traditionally fall outside of hard rock circles and easy entry point into Sleep Token’s genre-fusing world.
Jason Lipshutz: I loved how “Emergence” set the table for the rest of the album campaign as the first song released from Arcadia, but its follow-up, “Caramel,” is the single that has the best shot at enduring. Its summery beat and pop hooks are primed to reach a mainstream audience, and its twisting structure and intense second half make sure that the song doesn’t betray the band’s core appeal. Is a Sleep Token track really in the song of the summer race? You better believe it.
Andrew Unterberger: “Caramel” feels like the band’s greatest proof-of-concept single on the set, though it is interesting to me to see “Emergence” crack the top five on Rock & Alternative Airplay — it doesn’t strike me as a radio song, but neither does anything on this set, really. Still, that may say more about the popularity of the band overall rather than of the song itself.
4. A lot of people are probably hearing Sleep Token’s name for the first time and fumbling over the band’s now-undeniable popularity – in one sentence, how would you describe the root of its appeal/success to the uninitiated?
Eric Renner Brown: Rock might not be the mainstream cultural driver it once was, but there’s still a certain romance to heavy, high-concept rock music – and new generations want to find their own purveyors of that, rather than settling for the big arena-rock acts of yesteryear.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: They don’t have restrictions on what can and can’t be in metal, and that’s ultimately cool even if it doesn’t always work.
Kyle Denis: An English hard rock band that incorporates genres like reggaetón and pop and anonymizes themselves with different masks for each album rode a combination of natural momentum and social media virality to international stardom.
Jason Lipshutz: Sleep Token combines old-school metalcore theatrics, modern fantasy-world mythmaking and forward-thinking breakdowns that can be turned up in a car stereos or chopped up into TikTok clips.
Andrew Unterberger: As with the steadily growing popularity of Ghost, modern audiences love a metal band that can generate a little mystery and drama to its world-building — and as with the recent resurgence for the Deftones, those same audiences also love a metal band who seems tuned into the existence of other musical genres (and of sex).
5. Between Ghost and Sleep Token, hard rock albums have now claimed the No. 1 spot in two of the last three weeks – and neither from legacy acts, but rather from bands who are still ascending. Does this feel like a particularly important and significant moment for rock music on the Billboard charts, or is it more just a coincidence of timing?
Eric Renner Brown: Ghost and Sleep Token’s success on the chart ultimately feels like a coincidence, given the relative lull in major new releases – after all, since April, two Billboard 200 toppers have been deluxe reissues of previously released albums, and one (Bad Bunny) was a re-entry of an album that last topped the chart in early February. But at the same time, these albums indicate that hard rock is doing much better commercially than many give it credit for. Both bands are headed out on high-selling arena tours in the coming months, and hard-rock festivals like Ohio’s Sonic Temple and Florida’s Welcome To Rockville, which this year were headlined by the likes of Disturbed, Slipknot, Shinedown and Korn, are reliably huge affairs.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: A little of both. Both Ghost and Sleep Token emerged as No. 1’s on relatively slow weeks, and there’s no denying that the latter will be washed away from the charts next week now that Morgan Wallen’s back outside. Still, I think it shows overall a renewed appetite for theatrical rock music, especially among younger listeners. To call it a full blown “resurgence” I think is a stretch, but it is nice to see there remains an appetite for a genre that the mainstream public deemed to be “dead” years ago.
Kyle Denis: I think the release dates are probably a coincidence of timing, but the fact that 2025 has had two Billboard 200-topping hard rock albums before the year’s midpoint is definitely significant. Especially since these aren’t legacy acts and – at least in Sleep Token’s case – they’re also landing several songs on the Hot 100 pre- and post-album release. Maybe the success of these albums indicates a forthcoming reversal of the current trend of groups and bands disappearing from the Hot 100. Even if Arcadia doesn’t spin out a massive crossover hit, its streaming success is already indicative of a new era for hard rock on that consumption format – and that’s certainly a win.
Jason Lipshutz: The timing is coincidental, but the hard rock world has been starving for new superstars for years, and bands like Sleep Token and Ghost are filling the void. Both bands abide by long-held rules of the metal scene while also gesturing toward pop fans with their melodies; the mystique surrounding both groups has also gradually built, and invited new fans year after year. The respective performances of their new albums on the Billboard 200 showcases how these bands have real selling power, and should be taken more seriously as commercial entities moving forward.
Andrew Unterberger: Coincidental, but still meaningful. These two bands who happened to be releasing albums weeks apart might have been the only two bands who you’d expect to combine for such a moment in 2025 — but that’s still two more than you would’ve expected to be capable of it five years ago.
It’s been four years since a hard rock band topped the Billboard 200 albums chart — and far longer since such a band did so without having decades of hits already to its name. But this week, Ghost puts an end to both of those droughts.
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The Swedish rock band, with its anonymous lineup and masked on-stage appearance, has grown its devoted cult of fans for over 15 years now, coming ever closer to the top spot on the Billboard 200 with their first five album releases. Now, the group has finally captured its first No. 1, with sixth album Skeletá bowing at pole position, moving 86,000 first-week units, according to Luminate (with the majority coming in physical sales).
How did the group get over the top on the Billboard 200? And which band could be next? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Ghost’s Skeletá becomes the band’s first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 with 86,000 units moved. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are we by that first-week performance?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: It’s around a 9 or 10 for me. 86,000 units for a ROCK record in 2025 is an unbelievable accomplishment, especially when the band is this gothic and relatively niche. Don’t get me wrong, Ghost’s following has been strong and steady for years now, but I don’t think anyone anticipated their supporters to be this die-hard this many years later. The group has been cranking out records consistently since 2010, so they’re by no means a buzzing new band, nor do they have any sort of obvious mainstream pop culture support. This album is kinda just business-as-usual for them, making the No. 1 debut that much more impressive.
Lyndsey Havens: 8. Ghost has been around for almost 20 years, having formed in 2006 and released its debut album in 2010. And Skeletá is its sixth album. That’s not to say the group hasn’t had incredible success across that timeline, but to debut atop the all-genre albums chart is indeed impressive — and yes, a bit of a shock. But it’s important to look at the circumstances, too; Skeletá is the only debut in the top 10 of this week’s Billboard 200 chart, meaning it wasn’t a particularly crowded week for new releases. Even so, 86,000 units moved isn’t nothing — and I think this No. 1 debut is an important reminder of the ironically quiet yet sturdy interest in hard rock.
Elias Leight: 7 — the band did hit No. 2 in the past, and it helped that Ghost released Skeletá during a quiet chart week. Still, it’s always surprising when a group with so few streams tops the Billboard 200.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 6? I’d go higher if I didn’t already know anything about the band’s chart trajectory — and certainly 86,000 units is an eye-opening first-week number — but I can’t really deem it that shocking when a band goes to No. 8 with one album, then No. 3 with the album after that, then No. 2 with the album after that… then No. 1 with the album after that. Not that every band follows such a linear trajectory, but Ghost certainly has to this point.
Christine Werthman: I registered a 3 on the surprise scale, once I knew that their fans love vinyl and the band offered over a dozen vinyl variants of the new album, and that the last album went to No. 2. Traditional album sales accounted for 89 percent of Skeletá’s first-week numbers — and this tracks with the Billboard interview from 2022 after Impera’s big year, where the band’s marketing lead discussed how vinyl was a huge part of Ghost’s strategy. The surprise level is pretty low, considering the band just implemented a strategy it knew to be successful and was already on the right track with the last album. And the competition for the week wasn’t too stiff.
2. While Skeletá is the band’s first No. 1 album, they’d been getting closer with each successive album, and even scored a No. 2 album earlier this decade with 2022’s Impera. Is this album being the one to put them over the top more about the album itself or more a matter of the band’s overall momentum?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: In a way, I think it’s both. Skeleta is definitely one of their better, more cohesive records in recent years, but let’s just address the elephant in the room here: There is clearly a growing, reinvigorated interest in masked and disguised rock bands. Sleep Token is arguably the biggest band in the world right now, and they’ve experienced a very similar upward trajectory this decade. Those guys have a very strong chance of debuting at No. 1 two weeks from now, following the release of new album Even in Arcadia this Friday (May 9), which even just five years ago would have been unheard of. Skeleta’s debut I think has to do more with cultural momentum. There’s a strong gravitational pull young music fans are having towards dark and enigmatic rockers. Not to mention they rock hard, too.
Lyndsey Havens: I think it’s both. I actually love to see a trajectory like this, where you can trace a steady incline year over year — across many years. But it does take those two ingredients to get there: great music and an equally great fanbase. Ghost has always had both, with the latter being a tight-knight community that plays into the band’s heavily costumed on-stage presence (with the members being known as a clergy of “Nameless Ghouls” led by frontman Tobias Forge). With this new milestone, I’m curious to see where the band goes from here.
Elias Leight: Ghost’s timing was key. In February and March, stars like Bad Bunny, the Weeknd, PartyNextDoor and Drake, Lady Gaga, and Playboi Carti stormed to No. 1 with new releases. In the three most recent tracking weeks, however, the top album has not earned more than 65,000 album-equivalent units: Ken Carson, who hit No. 1 with More Chaos, managed to summit the chart with the smallest weekly total in three years (a number then lowered by SZA’s SOS in its return to the top spot the following week).
At the same time, Ghost’s audience has grown with each recent album. The band jumped from a No. 8 debut in 2015 to No. 3 in 2018, more than doubling its first-week total in the process. Four years later, when Ghost reached No. 2 with Impera, the group’s first-week numbers didn’t move much. The band found a strategy to boost numbers again with Skeletá. Combined with a week when no stars were releasing new albums, this put Ghost over the top.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s the momentum. Skeletá is a fine album but hardly a game-changer; if you know Ghost already you have a pretty good idea of what to expect from it. It’s more that a whole lot more people know who Ghost are now than did five or 10 years ago.
Christine Werthman: Ghost didn’t reinvent the wheel on this one compared to the others, so I’d chalk it up to the momentum. A loyal following led the Swedish hard rockers to the top.
3. While Ghost has scored a handful of Mainstream Rock Airplay No. 1s and even a minor crossover success with the belatedly viral “Mary on a Cross” in 2022, this new set has yet to spawn a big hit, with “Satanized” its only advance song to even crack an airplay top 10. Do you think a hit single will emerge from Skeletá – and does it particularly matter for the band at this point?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I don’t think it matters. The evidence of their growing popularity album-wise proves that point. Even at their earlier peaks, it felt that Ghost scored hit singles almost accidentally. They’ve never catered to radio or any sort of mainstream acceptance, that’s what makes ‘em so epic and cool. So if a hit song does emerge, it’ll just be out of fan-wide love of the song, not because of any major push from them.
Lyndsey Havens: No, I don’t think it matters. And honestly, I think for a band like Ghost — and this deep into a career — having a full LP hit No. 1 versus a single would mean more to me. That’s not to say it’s too late for a hit from the album to emerge, but is it necessary? I think not.
Elias Leight: This band has excelled at getting fans to buy albums — 61,000 copies of Prequelle, 62,500 of Impera, and now 77,000 of Skeletá — which makes it less dependent on U.S. hits. The success of “Mary on a Cross” presumably helped Ghost reach some new listeners. But even so, the band’s first-week stream count didn’t budge much: 9.11 million on-demand streams of Impera songs compared to 12.45 million of Skeletá songs.
Andrew Unterberger: Never hurts to have a breakout hit, certainly — and this set could have one, but if it does, it will probably pop off unpredictably, like “Mary” did three years ago. But obviously a consistent sales-drawing power means that you’re not dependent on them from album to album, which is the point that all popular performing artists — not just rock bands — should hope to get to in their careers.
Christine Werthman: “Lachryma” has some higher streaming numbers in its favor right now, but I also feel like “Umbra” might be a sleeper hit. It really builds, has a righteous instrumental break, and it could stir some controversy, with its seemingly religious references to “the chosen one” and “the shadow of the Nazarene.” All hail the blasphemers? Maybe, though it’s not as spicy as “Mary on a Cross.” It doesn’t totally matter though, as it seems like Ghost’s fanbase is in it for the long haul already.
4. Given that it’s one of the few hard rock bands of a relatively recent vintage to accumulate a devoted enough audience to top the Billboard 200, what lessons do you think other bands might be able to learn from Ghost’s recent chart success?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: Being authentic, unique and weird will always be cool. There will always be an appetite for it, and that appetite will translate to success if you just give it time. A lot of young bands cater to the algorithm right off the bat, you can hear it in the way they record and promote their albums. Ghost has always been Ghost, they’ve never swayed from that, which is why their fans have stuck by them. Do what creatively liberates you, don’t cater to the data!
Lyndsey Havens: To keep doing what you’re doing. You make music that you love and believe in? Great. You built a fanbase that’s willing to dress up for you at shows? Amazing. You’ve slowly over time played to bigger audiences across the world? Wow! All of these measurements of success, I believe, are what got Ghost to this point — and I haven’t even gotten to their Grammy win (best metal performance for “Cirice” in 2016). Over time, Ghost has created a world for itself and its fans to live in, and a No. 1 album is just proof of concept.
Elias Leight: Ghost employed a strategy initially popularized by K-Pop groups, releasing more than 20 variants of Skeletá across vinyl — including a limited run of 6,000 LPs with three different sets of “mystery” artwork — CD, and cassette. If a band already has an audience that likes to collect physical copies, releasing multiple variants has proven to be a reliable way to increase sales. Ghost fans snapped up 44,000 LPs across the various iterations of Skeletá, giving the band the third-largest vinyl sales week for any rock album in the modern era.
Andrew Unterberger: Embrace theatrics and spectacle! Over the past 30-plus years in rock music, it’s became increasingly normalized for rock bands to be no-frills in nature — but the pool of music fans who default to rock bands is pretty shallow these days, and it’s hard to draw in modern pop audiences while presenting yourselves so statically. If you want to reach Ghost’s commercial strata, you gotta give ’em a little more flair, a little more drama.
Christine Werthman: Don’t worry too much about chasing crossover hits, and find a marketing plan that works and follow it. Ghost didn’t revamp its style to get to No. 1 for the first time. The band just doubled down and gave its fanbase what it wanted — more ripping hard rock and more vinyl for the collection. Sticking to the script doesn’t work for every band, but Ghost identified its strengths and stuck with it. And remember: This is the group’s sixth studio album. Stick with it!
5. What’s another rock band that you could see topping the Billboard 200 for the first time in the near future?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: Mark my words: Sleep Token will go number one next week.
Lyndsey Havens: Our colleague Jason Lipshutz put me on to Spiritbox, and I think they are well on their way to a Billboard 200 No. 1. It would be a much quicker rise than Ghost, but I think the groundwork has been laid — and with Ghost delivering the first hard rock album to top the tally in over four years, I wouldn’t be surprised if the wait for it to happen again is significantly shorter.
Elias Leight: Falling in Reverse hit No. 12 — their highest position ever — with Popular Monster in 2024. Five Finger Death Punch have eight top 10 albums and have peaked at No. 2 on three separate occasions.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s Sleep Token, and it’s this month. But keep an eye out for The Marías, too — that group’s time might be coming sooner than you think, too.
Christine Werthman: Turnstile!
The last time Morgan Wallen and Post Malone joined forces on record, it was for “I Had Some Help” — which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, spent six weeks atop the chart, and was ultimately named Billboard‘s Song of the Summer for 2024. So when news came that the two were reuniting for a new single, expectations were understandably high.
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That new single, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” dropped two Fridays ago (Apr. 18) — just before Easter weekend, which made for good timing with the song’s “There’s a lot of reasons I ain’t Jesus, but the main one is that I ain’t comin’ back” hook. This week, the song debuts at No. 8 on the Hot 100: a strong entrance, but somewhat below the bar set by duo’s previous collaboration.
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How should Morgan Wallen and Post Malone feel about their new song’s initial performance? And will it still grow into a “Help”-sized smash? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” debuts at No. 8 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that spot lower, higher, or about where you would have expected it to debut?
Katie Atkinson: I think that’s exactly where I would have expected. While their last team-up “I Had Some Help” debuted atop the chart, it also had a megawatt live debut at 2024 Stagecoach setting it up for success and was a lot more upbeat. This new one is still catchy but has a sleepier tempo. I think a top 10 debut for a midtempo country jam chock-full of Christian imagery is pretty impressive – especially given it’s the fifth song preceding Wallen’s next album.
Kyle Denis: Maybe a little bit lower. “I Had Some Help” was such a massive No. 1 debut that I expected at least a top five entry for the new duet. Nonetheless, “Comin’ Back” isn’t as immediately catchy as “Help,” it doesn’t have the glow of being the lead single from Post Malone’s big country pivot and Morgan already has so many other songs circulating – including one directly above “Comin’” (“I’m the Problem,” No. 7).
Jason Lipshutz: About where I expected. “I Had Some Help” is the obvious analog, and while last year’s smash debuted at No. 1, that song possessed the glow of being Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s first collaboration, and arrived as Wallen’s first single following his 2023 album One Thing at a Time. “I Ain’t Coming Back” has been preceded by a steady stream of music from both Wallen and Post, which likely blunted some of the immediate excitement around its release — but still, these are two brand-name chart titans, so a top 10 debut seemed all but guaranteed.
Jessica Nicholson: It debuts around where I thought it would. “I Had Some Help” was aided by the buzz of curiosity surrounding not only Post Malone releasing a straight-ahead country album, but also regarding just what a collab between a genre-fluid artist like Post Malone and one of country music’s top-echelon artists would sound like. This time around, fans are more familiar with a Posty-Wallen collab. On the Hot 100, the song is also battling against releases from Kendrick Lamar with SZA, Alex Warren’s hit “Ordinary” and even Wallen’s own title track to his upcoming album.
Andrew Unterberger: Definitely lower. It’s not surprising that it didn’t quite match “I Had Some Help,” but only because that song was an absolute monster right out of the gate, zooming past one of the most packed periods of pop music in recent memory and reigning for six weeks. But this song couldn’t even lap Morgan Wallen’s own “I’m the Problem,” which is hardly the most explosive Wallen hit in recent memory. With that history and the two artists’ combined star power — not to mention its slick sound, big chorus and the built-in Easter tie-in — it’s a slightly underwhelming bow for the duo, for sure.
2. “I Had Some Help,” the previous teamup of Wallen and Post, ended up spending six weeks at No. 1 and topping Billboard’s Songs of the Summer chart. Do you think this song has a chance of growing into a hit near that size, or will it be diminishing returns on the sequel?
Katie Atkinson: Diminishing returns, only because this one just doesn’t have the Song of the Summer potential of “Help.” This is a reliably great Morgan Wallen song, but it’s not the backyard-BBQ-soundtracking party-starter of last summer’s smash-hit duet. If I’m going to listen to some melancholy Morgan, right now I’ve got “Just in Case” on repeat instead.
Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to say the sequel won’t be as big as “Help,” for all the reasons I listed in my previous answer. It really helped that “Help” got so much room to be the primary song for consumers to focus on from both artists. With six songs already circulating from a 37-track album that’s due in a few weeks, there might just be a little bit too much Wallen in the air.
Jason Lipshutz: I think everybody involved would be totally fine with slightly diminished returns for one of the biggest hits of last year. “I Had Some Help” caught lightning in a bottle, as an immediate and immensely enjoyable sing-along that crystallized Posty’s newfound foray into country music. “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” follows a similar formula but with a slightly less catchy hook, and it’s been delivered a few months after we’ve received a full Post Malone country album and at a time where we’ve gotten a new Wallen single every few weeks. The circumstances of “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” will blunt its commercial impact to some degree, but as a sequel to a singular hit, it’s pretty clearly a success already.
Jessica Nicholson: “I Had Some Help” had an instantly catchy groove, and the kind of post-breakup, pushback defiance fans love to hear in a breakup song. “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” shares much of that defiance, but in a slightly quieter, less-summertime-vibe way. It will be difficult to surpass the chart domination of “I Had Some Help,” especially given that “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” didn’t debut at No. 1 as its predecessor did, but fans have proven they are clamoring for any new music from Wallen, and that they loved Post’s country foray. Plus, with both Post Malone and Morgan Wallen being on the road this summer, that will keep the fans hearing this song through the summer months (assuming it makes it into their respective setlists), so it is possible that the song could gain greater strength.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t be surprised if it grows a little from here — radio’s gonna sink its teeth all the way into this thing, and the warm-weather months will undoubtedly be kind to it — but it seems pretty unlikely that it’ll grow into “I Had Some More Help.” (Particularly with all the competition it has from other recent Wallen releases, an already-crowded field which is about to quintuple in size with the release of the full I’m the Problem.) And that’s fine. Most sequels don’t quite live up their originals.
3. Wallen has released a steady stream of new songs in the run-up to his upcoming I’m the Problem album. Do you think this strategy is proving effective for promoting the new set, or is the volume getting to be too much?
Katie Atkinson: Considering it’s his record-extending fifth top 10 on the Hot 100 preceding the new album, I’d say he’s on to something. Not to mention, there are 37 songs on the standard release of I’m the Problem, so it’s not like he’s giving the whole album away ahead of time. Releasing seven total advance tracks out of 37 is like putting out two or three singles from a 13-track album, percentage-wise.
Kyle Denis: Part of me feels like it’s getting to be too much – and I think that’s evidenced by “Comin’” debuting lower than all five I’m the Problem singles that preceded it, despite being the only one to feature another artist. He could do with letting the singles breathe for a bit, especially with so much more music coming in such a short span of time.
Jason Lipshutz: It depends on what the goal is, right? If Wallen is aiming for another long-lasting No. 1 smash along the lines of “Last Night” or “I Had Some Help,” then this deluge of new singles has not been as effective as releasing one focus track and placing the country superstar’s entire weight behind it. Yet if the mission is to make Wallen even more ubiquitous — constantly near the top of New Music Friday, always with multiple songs lingering around the top of the Hot 100, with plenty of headlines and new fodder for country radio — then this rollout has largely been a win for him. And considering that his new 37-song album arrives in a few weeks, this current moment might just be the tip of the iceberg.
Jessica Nicholson: Given today’s more-is-more streaming environment, it feels like an effective strategy. Morgan’s album will encompass 37 songs, so releasing seven of those songs (so far) amounts to approximately 19% of those songs being released ahead of time, so there will still be plenty of new music to dig into the moment the full album releases.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a good short-term strategy that I do worry will have deleterious long-term effects. Undoubtedly this will all lead to a mighty first-week bow for I’m the Problem, and will confirm Wallen as the most dominant, ubiquitous country star of his generation — but it does feel like, after five years of near-continuous rising, the excitement with him as an artist and hitmaker is beginning to level off. But even in a worst-case scenario for him, it’ll be a while before it starts to really recede, and he’ll probably break a bunch more charts records in the meantime.
4. Post Malone has revealed that a second country album is in the works. Are you optimistic that the album will be able to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, or would he have been better off leaving his country detour as a one-and-done?
Katie Atkinson: I’m very optimistic. I’m looking forward to what Posty can do standing on his own two feet, without 15 duets pairing him up with the biggest names in country on this one. If the F-1-ending solo highlight “Yours” — which finds Post sweetly singing about his daughter’s future husband — is any indication, he could have a seriously long future in this genre. Might be time for Posty to check out some real estate in Nashville.
Kyle Denis: I think Post has definitely been embraced by country listeners, and he’ll continue to strengthen that base with his just-launched Big Ass Stadium Tour. I think without novelty on his side, it will be a bit harder to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, but it’s not entirely impossible. I think there’s a path for the album to be a success in its own right if he focuses on solo singles this time around.
Jason Lipshutz: F-1 Trillion was such a profound success that I’m not surprised that Posty is hitching a ride back to Nashville for its follow-up. Country sounded like a natural fit for an artist who broke through in the hip-hop world, and considering how often those sounds are intermingling on the charts these days, the transition hasn’t sounded as forced as it might have during a different musical era. I don’t think there’s any chance that Post Malone remains a country artist for the rest of his career, but right now, he’s in a good groove, and he should continue exploring.
Jessica Nicholson: It would be hard to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, unless he makes the next project as collaboration-heavy as F-1 Trillion, as teaming with so many country stars, and getting that co-sign from them, brought in fans of all of those artists. However, critically, many of his solo songs on his extended “Long Bed” version of the album were as good as his collaborative efforts, so it would be a chance to prove his status as a solo country hitmaker. That said, if the goal is entrenching himself into the country genre as an artist who is in it for the long haul, then consistently releasing country projects is an obvious essential step in accomplishing that aim, regardless of whether a new album reaches the all-genre chart pinnacle.
Andrew Unterberger: My guess would be that Post’s F-2 Trillion-type album ends up analogous to mgk’s second pop-punk set Mainstream Sellout — a chart-topping hit that generally does fine, but doesn’t quite generate the hits or the excitement of its predecessor.
5. One Thing at a Time moved 501,000 units in its first week. What’s your (mildly educated) guess for what I’m the Problem will post as its first-week number?
Katie Atkinson: I’m thinking it will be another half a milli. Wallen’s popularity has stayed steady in the last two years, and as evidenced by the top 10 performance of all five pre-release songs, people are still craving new music from him. My educated guess will be 502k just so he can say he bumped it up a step.
Kyle Denis: I’ll say… north of 450k, but it doesn’t surpass 501k.
Jason Lipshutz: 550,000. It’s got 37 tracks, it’s coming out during a relatively sleepy moment for new releases, and did I mention it’s got 37 tracks? The early streaming numbers should help Wallen’s latest secure his biggest debut yet.
Jessica Nicholson: Though this 37-song album barely exceeds the length its predecessor, the 36-track One Thing at a Time, Wallen’s celebrity status seems to have only grown since his last album. This album also includes collabs with Eric Church and Tate McRae, which should further spur fan excitement. I would conservatively estimate the project would come in at around 510,000 in first-week consumption.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say 485,000. Not quite the first week of One Thing, but close enough that nobody really tries to read too much into the decrease.
After reclaiming it for a third total week, Playboi Carti’s Music vacates the top spot of the Billboard 200 albums chart this week. But Carti likely won’t be too mad about the album replacing his at No. 1: More Chaos, the latest LP from his Opium imprint signee Ken Carson.
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The rising rapper’s 21-track new set becomes his first album to top the Billboard 200, following predecessor A Great Chaos peaking at No. 11 in 2023. The album takes advantage of a relatively slow week for new albums, as its 59,500 first-week units (according to Luminate) marks the lowest total for a No. 1 album since Pusha T’s It’s Almost Dry bested the chart with just under 55,000 units in May 2022.
How meaningful is the bow for Ken Carson? And which rapper could be next to score their first No. 1 album? Billboard staffers answer those questions and more below.
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1. Ken Carson’s More Chaos debuts at No. 1 this week with 59,000 equivalent album units moved. On a scale from 1-10, how big a deal do you think this is for the young rapper’s career?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: Definitely a 9 or 10. A No. 1 album is a massive accomplishment in its own right, but Ken’s debut I think surprised a good amount of people. His supporters have been devout for years, but I don’t think the uninitiated expected those supporters to come through in such high numbers like they did. For someone who at the beginning of his career was written off as a Carti clone, moving 59,000 units I think officially puts that criticism to rest. To see a fanbase grow this big in just two years is a serious accomplishment. We know a lot of that was the music, but a lot of it was because of his last tour. Ken developed a similar reputation to Carti for putting on explosive live performances, and I think the atmosphere he cultivated at his shows last year really shifted his supporters to a more cult-like level.
Kyle Denis: Absolutely a 10. You can be a fan (or not), you can say that this was a weak chart week, whatever. The fact of the matter is that Ken Carson has the No. 1 album in America with a style of rap that’s far more niche than other hip-hop chart-toppers. And he’s only 25. This is a massive deal for him.
Angel Diaz: I think I’ll go with a 6? Having an album go No. 1 is always an achievement to be proud of, but those numbers are a bit disappointing, especially when you consider the hype around Ken and his Opium labelmates Destroy Lonely and Playboi Carti. I was expecting a bigger debut.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. While the equivalent album units total isn’t high enough to suggest a huge swell of popularity compared to Carson’s previous projects, a No. 1 album is a No. 1 album, and may be the type of headline-grabbing achievement that will turn more casual rap fans toward the Atlanta native. For most music fans, a chart-topping project does not come with an asterisk that denotes a quiet release week and relatively low units total; More Chaos was the biggest album of the past week, and for a rising artists like Carson, that statement is all that matters.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 9? Obviously the number is low by No. 1 standards, but scoring a No. 1 album (or even a top five album really) as a young rapper without much crossover success is not something easily done in 2025. Lots of folks are talking about Ken Carson this week whose radar he might not have otherwise been on, and that’s always a big W.
2. Ken Carson has basically seen exponential growth with his album-to-album performance on the Billboard 200 – from a No. 115 peak on 2022’s X to No. 11 with A Great Chaos in 2023 now to No. 1. What do you think the biggest reason for that rapid growth is?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: The most important reason is the music has objectively gotten a lot better. Like, we can all admit X wasn’t a good introduction to who Ken was as a rapper or how he’d stand out amongst the other Carti clones popping up online. A Great Chaos was that introduction: The beats were interesting, and Ken’s voice and flow sounded unique. I think A Great Chaos satiated rage rap fans really well just on its face, but also had a lot of moments where you could tell this was a different kind of record compared to everything else coming out of Opium. Another equally-as-important reason I think is the live shows: We’re seeing that if you can bring the energy in interesting ways to your performances, it can draw in a ton of new, young fans. It’s been an instrumental factor in Carti’s and Travis Scott’s staying power, and I think Ken knows that and is tapping into that.
Kyle Denis: I think the dedication of the Opium fanbase and the continued glow of being one of Carti’s protégés have helped with his rapid growth. In addition to his own headlining tours, Carson has also been a regular on the festival circuit, playing lively sets at Coachella (2024), Rolling Loud (several times over) and Lollapalooza (2023) that frequently spin viral moments out of raucous mosh pits.
Angel Diaz: We have to thank Carti’s influential 2020 album Whole Lotta Red for laying down the foundation for Carson’s rage rap sound. Many young fans from diverse backgrounds listen to his music and have been at shows moshing to their music. Some feel like Opium’s sound is the next big thing in rap, so it’s no surprise that his stock is rising. His next album will be the one that could define his career.
Jason Lipshutz: Carson is the right artist at the right moment in hip-hop — a compelling, mainstream-friendly MC who trades in the blown-out rage rap that continues to dominate commercially. More Chaos takes over at the top of the Billboard 200 from Music, Playboi Carti’s long-awaited opus which spent three of the past four weeks at No. 1 (and is featured on Carson’s track “Off the Meter”); Carti is Carson’s label leader, and Music shares its sonic DNA with More Chaos, with both artists whipping through grinding production and shifting their flows across their respective sprawling projects. Hip-hop fans are unquestionably hungry for artists and projects like this, and Carson is the latest beneficiary of the trend.
Andrew Unterberger: Stronger craft and good timing.
3. While Carson is becoming a formidable force on the Billboard 200, his presence on the Billboard Hot 100 has been fairly muted – and none of the 21 songs on this album make the chart this week. Do you see hit songs in Carson’s future, or do you think it makes sense that his success be mostly album-focused?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I think what we’re seeing with a lot of these rage rap guys, with the exception of Carti, is that album really is God. Yeat is a good example of this. His biggest Hot 100 hit was Drake’s “IDGAF,” but outside of that his single’s have never done insanely well compared to his albums. I think with Ken, we’re likely gonna see the same sort of trajectory. Fans of this kind of music also tend to enjoy full length albums more because they appreciate the enveloping sound of these kinds of rappers. It’s become a vital part of the experience, which is kinda cool because it goes against the algorithmic focus on quick, catchy singles that major labels have pushed for in recent years via TikTok and other apps.
Kyle Denis: I can see Carson getting a hit with a song that explicitly caters to a wider audience – kind of like how “Rather Lie” was the clear radio-ready cut from Carti’s sprawling Music album. I definitely wouldn’t put money on a solo rage rap Carson song making a splash on the Hot 100. I’m almost certain his success will continue to be focused on albums/full-length projects and live shows.
Angel Diaz: That was surprising, but there also isn’t a song that sticks out for me on More Chaos. The album kinda moves like a side-scrolling video game soundtrack and each track represents a different level in the game. The production is moving faster than his raps, which sounds a bit jarring at first. I think he’s going to need a hit record eventually if he wants to be considered a major player in mainstream rap moving forward.
Jason Lipshutz: “Blakk Rokkstar” is a standout from More Chaos, as the type of operatic trap headbanger that Travis Scott has ridden to multiple hits over the years. But considering how scorching-hot Playboi Carti is at the moment, their album-closing collaboration “Off the Meter” (also featuring Destroy Lonely) is probably the safest bet for the song that uses this No. 1 album debut as a springboard for Carson to receive more streams and radio play. With its loping synth melody and a particularly feisty Carti feature, “Off the Meter” definitely has crossover potential.
Andrew Unterberger: You can never rule out the possibility of anyone catching a hit these days off some unexpected viral heat, but in terms of whether he’s ever going to be a reliable hitmaker from a singles perspective… it seems unlikely. The songs aren’t written with pop structure or pop goals in mind, and his fans don’t seem to want that from him anyway.
4. The album Chaos replaces at No. 1, Music, comes from his label boss and partner-in-rage Playboi Carti. Do you think it says something about hip-hop in 2025 that the albums should top the chart in back-to-back weeks, or is it mostly just a timing fluke?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I think it’s too early to say for certain whether this is a definitive moment or not for hip-hop in 2025. Truthfully, it could be just great timing for Opium. I could be wrong, but I think Chaos going number one came as a pleasant surprise for a lot of people, including maybe Ken himself? I certainly didn’t expect it to move 59,000 units.
Kyle Denis: I think it’s mostly a timing fluke, but I also think it further cements that Playboi Carti is one of the biggest pop stars of 2025. Not only is Carti enjoying multiple visits to the top of the Billboard 200 and scoring radio hits (thanks to The Weeknd’s “Timeless”) and concurrent Hot 100 top 10 debuts, but he’s also minting tomorrow’s biggest rap stars through Opium. Now, both Carson’s and Destroy Lonely’s most recent LPs have reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 in back-to-back years. As things currently stand, Carti and Kendrick are two indisputable pillars of 2025 hip-hop’s Big Three.
Angel Diaz: Hip-hop is the most important pop culture phenomenon to come along in the last 50 years and it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Even the pop girlies like Billie Eilish and Camila Cabello either dress like rappers or try to incorporate their sound in some way or another. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that other rap albums will top the album charts in 2025. Now, if you ask me if that’s a good thing is another conversation. Whenever something that was once counterculture becomes a mainstream staple, it gets watered down. However, Ken did benefit from a quiet week, and he probably wouldn’t have gone No. 1 if he went up against a heavyweight rapper, pop star, or country singer.
Jason Lipshutz: Partially a timing fluke, but while Kendrick Lamar and Drake duke it out in the headlines and at the top of the Hot 100, rage has not-so-quietly swerved to the front of popular rap, the sound du jour of young listeners searching for sound to match their teenage intensity. We’re going to see more months like this in the future, where both A-list rappers and rising genre stars share space at the top of the Billboard 200 to reflect bigger-than-expected fan bases. Playboi Carti’s appeal and influence are undeniable at this point, but more Ken Carsons are coming soon, too.
Andrew Unterberger: The timing is definitely more coincidental than anything, but you’d be pretty silly not to at least take note that this strain of rap is connecting with audiences in a way many other styles — some of which would be thought to be much more conventionally commercial — really aren’t right now.
5. Which other rising rapper who’s yet to score a Billboard 200 No. 1 album do you think is likely to top the chart sooner than later?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I think things are looking promising for BigXThaPlug. His pivot into country is being super well received so far, which historically has been a hard pivot to make. His debut in the top five last week I think is a promising sign for him if he keeps up this momentum. Lil Tecca could also pull it off if he rolls out his album the right way. He’s got a serious record on his hand with “Dark Thoughts,” and I think he has the potential to chart very high if he keeps dropping heat.
Kyle Denis: I’ll keep an eye on Lil Tecca and BigXthaPlug. Neither Megan Thee Stallion nor Doja Cat are rising stars, but I’d be surprised if they both didn’t eventually snag a Billboard 200 No. 1 album.
Angel Diaz: Megan and GloRilla haven’t had a No. 1 album yet. I can see either of them reaching the top of the album charts in the future. As far as rising, though? Cash Cobain is the first name that comes to mind based on the type of music he makes. I know he can be a little too horny at times, but his production is so good the vulgarity can be tolerated.
Jason Lipshutz: BigXThaPlug. After scoring his first top 10 album in October with Take Care, the Dallas rapper cruised into the top 5 of the Hot 100 earlier this month with the Bailey Zimmerman team-up “All the Way.” If that smash leads a new project in the near future, get ready for that project to top the Billboard 200.
Andrew Unterberger: Almost too obvious, but Doechii for sure.
Neither country star Bailey Zimmerman or rap hitmaker BigXthaPlug had ever hit the top five of the Billboard Hot 100 before — but now they both have together, with their new team-up “All the Way.”
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The relationship-gone-bad trap ballad bows at No. 4 on the Hot 100 (Apr. 19) this week, and features BigX taking on the rap verses in between Zimmerman’s sweet-and-sour sung hook. The combination has proven particularly irresistible for streaming audiences, with the song debuting atop the Streaming Songs chart this week.
Whose career does the song’s early success mean more for? And what other country-rap star pairs could do even bigger things on the charts? Billboard answers these questions and more below.
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1. BigXthaPlug and Bailey Zimmerman’s new collab “All the Way” debuts at No. 4 on the Hot 100 – higher than either artist has ever peaked before. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you by the song’s immediate success?
Christopher Claxton: In terms of surprise, I would rate my level at a 2. The fusion of country music and hip-hop is not a new phenomenon, and its popularity is well-established and is making a comeback. For example, consider the chart success of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — a genre-blending track that is neither strictly hip-hop nor country, but a crossover that resonated strongly with American audiences, which spent a record-tying 19 weeks atop the Hot 100.
Kyle Denis: 8. On paper, this collaboration makes complete sense. My surprise stems from the fact that I didn’t know this song was even coming out last week – and I certainly didn’t expect such a splashy first week since neither artist is known for lofty single debuts.
Elias Leight: 4 — while BigXthaPlug had never hit the top half of the Hot 100 before, he’s quietly been earning more than 50 million on-demand streams a week in the U.S. for most of the last two months. When an artist has that kind of dedicated fan base, he’s poised for this kind of explosive moment. It doesn’t hurt that he teamed up with Zimmerman, who is already an established country hitmaker.
Jason Lipshutz: A 9. Obviously popular music is preoccupied with the intersection of country and hip-hop right now — we’re only a few months removed from one country-rap hybrid, Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” tying the all-time Hot 100 record set by another country-rap hybrid, Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus’ “Old Town Road” — but neither of those smashes scored a top 5 debut on the chart, instead riding to the upper tier. “All the Way” is an anomaly, not just because of its high-powered debut but because BigXThaPlug had never scored a top 10 hit before, while Bailey Zimmerman had once before with a song that sounds nothing like this collaboration. I could have foreseen “All the Way” eventually growing into a crossover hit, but a No. 4 debut is genuinely startling.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8. I certainly thought there would be a good chance for BigX to score his biggest hit with one of the country collabs he’d teased, but I thought it would be with a slightly more proven crossover hitmaker than Bailey Zimmerman. But I’m sure that in retrospect it won’t actually seem that surprising at all.
2. Which of the two artists do you think the song’s impressive debut means more to, BigX or Zimmerman?
Christopher Claxton: The chart success of “All the Way” likely holds greater significance for Zimmerman. While he currently has seven tracks on the Hot 100 not including “All the Way”, only two are from 2024, with the others dating back to 2022 and 2023. In contrast, BigX has experienced substantial momentum, charting five tracks on the Hot 100 in 2024 alone. That said, BigX still has reason to celebrate — this marks his first top 10 hit, whereas it is Zimmerman’s second.
Kyle Denis: Probably BigX. Zimmerman at least has a handful of Hot 100 top 40 hits – including the No. 10-peaking “Rock And a Hard Place.” BigX has only hit the Hot 100 thrice before, and none of those entries broke the chart’s top 60. Your first top 40 hit doubling as a No. 4 debut must feel pretty special.
Elias Leight: For BigX, who’s been flying under the radar despite his enviable streaming numbers, “All the Way” is a mainstream breakthrough — a level-up moment. And while Zimmerman has already had a top 10 hit with “Rock and a Hard Place,” “All the Way” shows that wasn’t a one-off, while also introducing him to an audience of hip-hop fans that probably hadn’t heard him previously.
Jason Lipshutz: BigX — simply because, unlike Zimmerman, “All the Way” is now by far his biggest hit. “Mmhmm” served as a breakthrough for the Dallas native, but that single only peaked at No. 63 on the Hot 100, a hip-hop radio staple that couldn’t quite muster a full-blown pop crossover. While that moment could have defined his career for a bit, the No. 4 debut for “All the Way” suggests that BigX is quickly moving on to bigger hits and a greater national profile; Zimmerman will continue to rise in the country world, but BigXThaPlug might have just punched his ticket to rap stardom.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it might actually be Zimmerman — it introduces him to a new audience and proves he has the juice in a way beyond what people probably expected of him. Though I guess you could say the same of BigX, so it’s pretty close to a draw here.
3. Does this single’s runaway success tell you something new or interesting about the commercial potential of hip-hop and country collabs right now – or is it more just about these artists and this song?
Chris Claxton: The strong debut of “All the Way” further supports the idea that the fusion of hip-hop and country is making a resurgence — one that has been building momentum over time. We witnessed a major breakthrough with Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus’ “Old Town Road” remix, which spent 19 weeks at No. 1 in 2019, mirroring the success of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” Even in the early 2000s, we saw the success of the fusion in tracks like Nelly’s “Country Grammar (Hot S**t).” The data reflects what listeners are gravitating toward, and it seems likely that we’ll see a continued rise in this hybrid sound — especially with the upcoming release of BigX’s hip-hop-country project, which has strong potential for success.
Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to say it’s just these artists and this song. It’s hard to tell how invested consumers are in country crossovers after such a jam-packed 2024. Chappell Roan’s “The Giver” isn’t exactly lighting the charts on fire and Lana Del Rey’s “Henry, Come On” didn’t have an explosive debut, but Shaboozey and Morgan Wallen still have songs in the Hot 100’s top 10. I think BigX and Zimmerman are both buzzy artists with a lot of social media pull and relatively young fanbases – and Bailey’s backwards cap-over-cowboy hat style pairs well with BigX’s Texan rap bravado. Their union just made sense, and it doesn’t hurt that the song is catchy.
Elias Leight: Hip-hop country collaborations have been commercially potent for more than a decade. Many of these are one-offs — Tim McGraw and Nelly, Moneybagg Yo and Morgan Wallen — or the work of newcomers: Lil Nas X and Billy Ray Cyrus, Breland and Sam Hunt. BigX’s trajectory is more unusual, in that he is a successful rapper pivoting to put out a project dedicated to country hip-hop fusions. Considering that the two longest running Hot 100 hits both have one foot in rap and one in country, it’s clear that this combination remains formidable.
Jason Lipshutz: Five years separated the chart runs of “Old Town Road” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” with some country-rap hits in between but nothing close to those songs’ respective scales. The top 5 debut of “All the Way” hints that a greater wave is about to crash down, though, to satisfy a wide swath of listeners that is clearly interested in the combination of rap verses and country hooks. BigXThaPlug and Zimmerman were both on upward trajectories upon the release of “All the Way,” but its immediate success has less to do with their journeys and more to do with what pop listeners are generally looking for at the top of their streaming playlists these days. I’d expect an influx of songs like this over the next 6-12 months.
Andrew Unterberger: I think the song’s success does demonstrate the potency of a rap-country combo right now — though I would caution artists and execs from putting too much stock in there being a consistent X + Y = Z formula here. We will see some rappers and country singers team up to great returns in the next couple years, I believe, but not as many as we’ll see making similar attempts and ending up just looking kinda silly and desperate.
4. If you had to guess one of these two artists to have another top 10 Hot 100 hit before the end of the year, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: BigXthaPlug is the obvious pick for me. As previously mentioned, he has a country-inspired project on the way, featuring notable artists such as Shaboozey, Jelly Roll, Morgan Wallen and more. BigX has already collaborated with Shaboozey on the track “Drink Don’t Need No Mix,“ which I personally enjoy. The song charted on both Billboard’s Hot Country Songs and Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs charts — not quite the Hot 100, but still a noteworthy first collaboration. The performance of that track could serve as valuable feedback to help shape a true Hot 100 hit in the future. Plus, with several other unrevealed collaborations on the upcoming project, there’s no telling what surprises might be in store.
Kyle Denis: The smart bet is probably Zimmerman given his track record, but I feel like BigX has one or two more eye-popping collabs in the tuck.
Elias Leight: BigX: The high-flying debut of “All the Way” gives him a lot of momentum as he moves towards the release of the full project, and last year, he said he was recruiting other heavy-hitters as collaborators, including Luke Combs, Jelly Roll and Post Malone.
Jason Lipshutz: BigXThaPlug because, while Zimmerman has proven to be adept at connecting with casual country listeners, songs like “Mmhmm” and “All the Way” demonstrate that BigX has a canny sense of pop sizzle. His rumbling flow can be magnetic even when he’s not trying to engineer a hit single, but BigX has a keen ear for flashy production and major hooks, understanding exactly how to fit his delivery into a song that could take off outside of his core listenership. “All the Way” may center Zimmerman’s chorus, but BigX knows exactly what he’s accomplishing with a track like this.
Andrew Unterberger: Definitely BigX with all those collabs coming — but I’m also pretty bullish on Zimmerman’s stock, so I’d say it’ll likely be both by the end of 2025.
5. Without naming either Kendrick Lamar or Morgan Wallen, who would be your perfect star rap/country pairing in 2025 for maximum commercial impact?Christopher Claxton: This may be a hot take, but I would love to see a collaboration between A$AP Rocky and Jessie Murph. Jessie has already demonstrated her ability to flow on hip-hop–influenced production, as seen in her collaboration with Jelly Roll on “Wild Ones,” which was an exceptionally well-executed track. Her work with BigX on “Holy Ground” further proves her versatility. A$AP Rocky, known for his adaptability and consistent delivery, could bring a unique energy to a country-inspired beat. He’s proven time and again that he’s a skilled rapper, and a country-hip-hop blend could offer a refreshing, playful twist to his sound, and offer him a moment to have fun with his music.
Kyle Denis: Drake and Jelly Roll – let’s hope it never happens.
Elias Leight: Doechii and Megan Moroney.
Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with Tyler, The Creator and Kacey Musgraves, a pair of A-listers who have a long history of coloring outside of their respective genre lines. A Musgraves hook on a Tyler song, a la “Like Him” with Lola Young, would absolutely crackle.
Andrew Unterberger: J. Cole and Zach Bryan.
For the third time — and in the second different calendar year — Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine tops the Billboard 200 this week.
The album, which originally debuted atop the chart dated Mar. 23, 2024 and spent two weeks at No. 1, returns to the apex with 137,000 units moved, according to Luminate. The album’s resurgence comes following the release of its Brighter Days Ahead deluxe edition, which boasts six bonus tracks — all of which appear on this week’s Billboard Hot 100, led by “Twilight Zone” at No. 18 — and comes with a short sci-fi film of the same name, starring Grande and her father, Edward Butera.
Do we think the commercial response validates the relatively lengthy wait for the deluxe edition? And what do we make of this mini-movie? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Eternal Sunshine returns to No. 1 on the Billboard 200 this week — a year after topping it the first time — with 137,000 units moved, following the release of the set’s Brighter Days Ahead edition. Is that performance better than, worse than, or about what you would have expected?
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Hannah Dailey: Overall, I would say that it’s even better than I expected for a deluxe edition released a full year after the original – but I did anticipate the deluxe doing well in general. I think a lot of people really underestimate just how loved this album is. I’m certainly not surprised that there’s still so much interest in it all this time later!
Kyle Denis: Much better. I assumed the album would return to the bottom half of the top 10 – especially because there’s no current radio single from the standard version and “Twilight Zone” didn’t exactly explode upon release – but to pull a six-figure total and return to No. 1 over a behemoth of a Playboi Carti album and Lil Durk’s latest set is amazing.
Lyndsey Havens: What I would expect. Ariana is a consistent chart-topper at this point, and the only thing I wouldn’t see coming is if Brighter Days Ahead fell short of the tally’s top spot. And the thing I love about this particular feat is that it wasn’t a curiosity rebound, meaning I don’t get the sense people listened only out of curiosity and then moved on. The songs on this deluxe are that good — and if Eternal Sunshine didn’t tell such a tightly knit story, they could have easily arrived then. But that’s what I love most about this deluxe; it arrived when the stories in these songs needed to be told, and when Ari was ready to tell them.
Jason Lipshutz: Better. Deluxe editions of major albums typically don’t arrive one year after the original album’s release, and considering how much of Ariana Grande’s focus has been on Wicked (and the upcoming Wicked: For Good), it’d be easy to surmise that she and her fans had moved on from Eternal Sunshine. So the fact that these deluxe tracks arrived less like a belated thank-you and more like the completion of a beloved project, with a six-figure equivalent album units total and a return to the top of the Billboard 200, represents a major win for Grande, on an occasion that she could have dismissed as minor.
Andrew Unterberger: Definitely better. This deluxe came a long time after the original album, and it feels it — since so much else happened in the interim, both in Grande’s career and pop music in general. To still have enough in interest in you and your most recent project to chart a half-dozen new songs on the Hot 100 (and none that low), while moving six digits’ worth of album units, should all feel pretty validating for Grande.
2. A year is a long time in 2025 to wait to release a proper deluxe edition of a hit album. Do you think it has proven a smart strategy for Grande, or should she have come with it a little sooner?
Hannah Dailey: I’d usually say a year is an egregiously long time to wait between an album and deluxe, but in this specific case, I think the distance was to Grande’s benefit. First of all, a lot of the big pop releases that came after Eternal Sunshine in 2024 kind of overshadowed the album and pushed it out of the general public’s consciousness a bit; waiting this long to drop the deluxe gave it more than enough space from those other releases to totally stand out and have a second chance at being a quintessential pop moment of 2025, if not 2024. Second, it was nice to have a breather from all the Wicked craziness before Eternal Sunshine Part 2. It gave us a bit of time to miss Grande before she did anything else and re-orient our brains back to thinking of her as in pop star mode, not Glinda mode.
Kyle Denis: I think it’s absolutely proven correct. She was risking serious overexposure if she launched a deluxe edition with six new songs and a movie while she was still knee-deep in Wicked press. The standard version got ample time to shine, and the deluxe now has several months – before Wicked: For Good press ramps up – to itself. It also helps that Grande put out a “slightly deluxe” version of the album in between its initial release and Brighter Days Ahead, so her Eternal Sunshine rollout has been meticulously plotted to avoid having too much Ari at one time.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m genuinely curious how much of it was strategic and how much of it was basic logistics and/or intuition. Since Eternal Sunshine has arrived, Ariana has mostly been in Wicked promo mode. For the deluxe to arrive after awards season makes perfect sense on paper. But what could make even more sense is that Ariana could have still been living in or stuck on the stories behind these songs, and all they needed was a bit more time and space. Either way, I would love if this practice is adopted more. Take SZA’s Lana, for example: Was it a stretch to call it a deluxe? Sure. But was it nice to have some space in between projects? I think so. And at the end of the day, I think the best strategy is releasing something when the artist feels it’s ready — because that’s when it will likely hit the hardest.
Jason Lipshutz: Six months ago, I would have said the latter… but as it turns out, Grande was smart to roll out these songs following Wicked campaign. A months-long awards tour made it impossible for Grande to focus on Brighter Days Ahead promotion, so if these songs had arrived in late 2024 or early 2025, there likely would have landed as more of an afterthought during a hectic time. And instead of serving them up a month or two after Eternal Sunshine’s release, Grande let the standard edition stand on its own — and “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love)” grow into one of her most enduring hits — before giving these deluxe tracks their own moment. A unique strategy for unique circumstances, but she pulled it off expertly.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s proving pretty smart. Intuitively I would’ve said it was a little late, but most deluxe projects come so early these days — sometimes just days, if not mere hours — after their originals that Grande actually giving some real breathing room between the two is something I’m more grateful for than I would have expected. (The songs being good also certainly helps!)
3. “Twilight Zone” is the clear leader of the new tracks from the reissue on the Hot 100 this week, debuting at No. 18. Does it feel like a long-lasting hit to you, or will it fall once the reissue’s early momentum wears off?
Hannah Dailey: It definitely sounds like a hit to me, and I love how it adds to the narrative of the rest of the album. I predict that it’ll be a slow grower – it’s not the splashiest-sounding pop song, but it’s one that’s been getting randomly stuck in my head repeatedly ever since it came out, and I’m guessing I’m not the only one. I think that people will continue to keep coming back to it more and more over the next few weeks.
Kyle Denis: I think it depends on how much Grande is willing to do for the song. If it gets a standalone video and some kind of live performance, I can see “Twilight Zone” sticking around the charts as a cute springtime hit. If she lets these songs sit and shifts her focus back to Wicked, I anticipate “Twilight Zone” falling a bit faster than the average Grande single.
Lyndsey Havens: What’s crazy to me is while all five of the new tracks compete for the title of my favorite, “Twilight Zone” doesn’t often lead the list. It’s almost like each new song is better than the last, as I loved “Warm” but then “Dandelion” (the horn!) into “Past Life” into “Hampstead” is just an incredible run. But I do think “Twilight Zone” is the most sonically linked to Eternal Sunshine, which is why it was the perfect track to open the deluxe — and maybe why it’s connecting the most right now.
Jason Lipshutz: I think “Twilight Zone” is actually in for a pretty lengthy run, based on three things: the quality of the song, Grande’s established presence at top 40, and the fact that no new non-Wicked music is on the horizon. “Twilight Zone” travels down the same cozy synth-n-B path as “We Can’t Be Friends,” and streaming playlist curators and radio programmers should embrace it pretty quickly; the Wicked For Good campaign will dominate Grande’s focus during the second half of the year, so even if Eternal Sunshine tumbles back down the Billboard 200, this song will stand as her traditional pop bid in the months leading up to the film.
Andrew Unterberger: It does feel like a hit to me, but I’m not sure that it actually will be. Top 40 is just embracing so few new songs from anyone these days — even from proven hitmakers like Grande — and I’m not sure if the format will cut into its Benson Boone or Gracie Abrams spins for this deluxe edition song, especially if Grande isn’t really gonna push it herself. I hope it does, though — or that it finds footing enough on streaming to be a long-lasting hit there — because it certainly does deserve to have that kind of endurance.
4. In addition to the new songs, Brighter Days Ahead comes with an accompanying short film of the same name, featuring many of the album’s tracks. Does the mini-film add much to the album era/experience to you?
Hannah Dailey: Honestly, the short film didn’t do much for me by way of enhancing the album. I more just love to see Grande marrying her loves for music and acting in a way that clearly makes her feel really fulfilled creatively, and in general it was nice to have something extra to end the Eternal Sunshine era on a grander note.
Kyle Denis: In some ways, yes. Longtime Grande fans are very aware of how rocky her relationship with her father has been throughout her career, so to see him make a cameo in the film as the doctor who uses music to put her back together after the press tore her to shreds… that was an unbelievably beautiful full-circle moment. Brighter Days Ahead is also easily the strongest distillation of Grande’s creative pysche that she’s offered so far; her beloved horror elements are on full display, and the film’s throughlines help emphasize the message of Eternal Sunshine and flaunt her dramatic acting skills. While the pacing was a bit clunky, the short film only leaves me more excited to see where Grande (and Christian Breslauer, or perhaps a different collaborator?) goes next visually.
Lyndsey Havens: Only in the sense that it’s a great metric for fans to understand that in this case, similar to what I said above, this deluxe isn’t necessarily a strategic play. Creating and delivering a short film to accompany these new tracks only proves how much of a story is baked into them, and how moved Ariana felt to not only tell that story, but bring her fans into it, in more ways than one.
Jason Lipshutz: The short film adds a compelling visual element to the Eternal Sunshine deluxe edition, but ultimately, “Twilight Zone” transcends the greater context around it, just like prior Hot 100 chart-toppers “Yes And” and “We Can’t Be Friends.” Grande has spent time over the past eight years re-positioning herself as a traditional albums artist after breaking through with a string of hit singles beginning in 2013… but full-length statements like Thank U, Next, Positions and Eternal Sunshine still contain those hits, and her latest album is defined by those radio-ready standout moments. If the short film better exemplifies the tone of Eternal Sunshine, Grande’s latest chart hit prolongs the era with more powerful commercial intent.
Andrew Unterberger: I can’t be mad at any music video with real ambition (and a real budget!) in 2025.
5. Has your relationship with or view of Eternal Sunshine changed any over the past year from when it was released?
Hannah Dailey: I loved Eternal Sunshine on my very first play-through, and I have loved it (and listened to it on, at minimum, a weekly basis) ever since. To me, it still represents Grande in a place of full creative liberation – you can hear that she made these songs, both original and deluxe, not because she had to, but simply because she had music and words inside of her that desperately needed to come out in the studio. If anything, I’ve come to accept more since its release that this could very likely be the last album we get from her in a long time as she shifts her focus to acting, which makes listening to it a little more bittersweet.
Kyle Denis: I already loved it upon release, and I’ve only grown to appreciate it more. Eternal Sunshine is now officially my favorite Ari album. She’s really settled into post-Imogen Heap/Brandy lane that suits her damn-near perfectly.
Lyndsey Havens: Hm, not really. I think another benefit of releasing a deluxe so long after the album itself is that it can reignite interest. While I listened to Eternal Sunshine on loop for months after it came out, naturally that fades with time and with more and more new music always incoming. So, while my love for the album never waned, this deluxe has only helped strengthen my relationship with it once again. And now, perhaps unfortunately for me, it’s only left me wanting even more.
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely — after previously considering Eternal Sunshine a mid-tier Grande project, the album’s emotional maturity has resonated with me in a clear way in the months following its release. The Brighter Days Ahead songs have underlined the overall project’s tone and purpose — so, chart performance aside, the deluxe edition has been an unequivocal success.
Andrew Unterberger: Not really, but I do have more of a belief now that it will go down as a classic album and a major part of her legacy.
While Selena Gomez is never out of the spotlight for too long, it had been a full half-decade since we last got an LP from her — 2020’s Rare — until the release of I Said I Love You First this March.
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The new project — released as a collaborative album with her longtime collaborator and fiancé, star producer Benny Blanco — debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week (dated Apr. 5), with 120,000 units moved in its first week, according to Luminate. Though the set is Gomez’s first LP since leaving backing band The Scene not to debut atop the chart, it also arrives with her best-ever debut numbers, and launches four hits on this week’s Billboard Hot 100 (though none in the top 40).
How should Gomez and Blanco feel about their opening performance? And what other producer-singer teamups might we like to see full albums from? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco’s I Said I Love You First album debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 with 120,000 units moved in its first week. On a scale from 1-10, how pleased should they be with that opening performance?
Rania Aniftos: 10, absolutely. Gomez hasn’t released an album in five years, and to come back with such success alongside the love of her life must be incredibly validating.
Stephen Daw: I’m giving this a 9. Sure, a No. 1 debut would have been nice here, especially considering that Selena’s last two solo albums topped the Billboard 200 in their first outings. But, take one look at the numbers and you’ll see that I Said I Love You First had a better first week than Stars Dance, Revival and Rare. The only album that managed to beat I Love You on this week’s chart was Playboi Carti’s immediate megahit MUSIC, which very few albums would have been able to beat in the first place — so this high of a debut is ultimately a huge deal for both Selena and Benny.
Kyle Denis: An 8. I think they should both be thrilled. Obviously, a No. 1 is nice, but this debut gives Benny his highest charting Billboard 200 entry as a lead artist, and Selena earns her largest week by units. They also landed several songs on the Hot 100, so this is unquestionably a win for them.
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. While Gomez and Blanco narrowly missed out on a No. 1 debut, the pair have to be pretty proud of posting a greater first-week equivalent albums unit total than Gomez’s Rare did five years ago — and that album had a No. 1 single in “Lose You to Love Me.” A collaborative project like this is never guaranteed a major commercial bow, and the half-decade gap between Gomez studio projects could have easily slowed momentum, so the fact that I Said I Love You First started so strong should be seen as a major win by all parties involved.
Andrew Unterberger: A 7. It’s an impressive first-week number, and the buzz around the album seems to be mostly positive, but the number of late-week variants released of I Love You would seem to suggest the artists and their teams were really hoping for a No. 1 debut, and they couldn’t quite get over the top there.
2. Though as a chronicling of their love story, obviously the album means a great deal to both Selena Gomez and Benny Blanco personally, which of the two do you think it means more career-wise?
Rania Aniftos: Selena. She’s been through a lot, both personally and medically, over the past few years and has even thought about saying goodbye to her music career. Thankfully, Blanco inspired her to use her musical talents again and it paid off. Again, this is probably so validating and exciting for her, and I’m looking forward to what she’s going to release in the future.
Stephen Daw: Benny Blanco, for sure. While Benny has a handful of Hot 100 hits as a featured artist on others’ tracks (and a few dozen No. 1s as a producer and songwriter), his sole credit on the Billboard 200 was his 2018 Friends Keep Secrets EP, which hit a No. 41 peak in 2019. To score a No. 2 debut with his fiancée is no doubt a huge personal milestone for the singer as well as being a massive coup for his professional career.
Kyle Denis: This is tough because I don’t really think it means that much for either of them in the grand scheme of things. Similar to PND with the Drake joint album last month, I Said I Love You First smartly leverages Selena’s star power to lift Benny to commercial heights that he’s never seen before – and likely wouldn’t ever see – as a billed lead artist. The album is also a reminder of what a solid pop craftsman Benny is, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it leads to his phone ringing a bit more in the coming months.
As for Selena, between starring in an Oscar-winning film (Emilia Pérez) and picking up her first SAG Award (Only Murders in the Building) earlier this year, she didn’t really need to put out another album. She seems more fulfilled on the acting side and the projects have been acclaimed and successful – and we haven’t even gotten into her Rare Beauty empire and other business endeavors. If anything, this new album is probably a cathartic moment for Selena; it’s proof that there’s still an audience interested in her music and a reminder that she can still have fun and be present while making music. I don’t think this album revitalizes her as a major player in the 2025 pop game, but it does show us that the musical avenue is still open for Selena Gomez – whether she’s prioritizing it or not.
Jason Lipshutz: Blanco. As Gomez has nimbly balanced the different parts of her career — recently co-starring in the Oscar winner Emilia Pérez, prepping a new season of Only Murders in the Building, in addition to her various brand and sponsorship deals — music can become part of a whole, her creativity diversified after years of studio output that resulted in several chart hits. While Blanco has enjoyed phenomenal success as a producer and songwriter, this is the first week in which he’s credited as an artist on a top 10 album! That accomplishment has to be meaningful, especially with a project as personally important as this one.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s Blanco, as despite multiple career’s worth of hits and an ever-rising Q rating, he’s still mostly felt like The Guy Behind The Guy for most of his career. On those grounds, I’m sure that getting to play The Guy Alongside His Superstar Fiancée on a full big-selling pop album is pretty rewarding and meaningful.
3. Gomez and Blanco have a quartet of songs scattered around the Hot 100 this week, led by the Gracie Abrams-featuring “Call Me When You Break Up” at No. 46 and the Marias-assisted “Ojos Tristes” at No. 59. Do you see any of those songs as being the lasting breakout hit from the project, or do you think it’ll be something else from the album — or will it not generate such a hit at all?
Rania Aniftos: It’s going to be “Bluest Flame,” especially as we head into the summer. The Charli XCX-written song is already generating buzz on TikTok, and leaning into the dance/electronic world has previously worked well for Gomez, as we’ve seen with her past Kygo, Zedd and Marshmello collaborations. I can see it becoming the breakaway hit from the album.
Stephen Daw: While I do think that “Ojos Tristes” is one of the best tracks off the album, I think it’s either going to be “Call Me When You Break Up” or nothing here. Gracie Abrams is still riding high with “That’s So True” rising through the Top 40 of the Hot 100, and “Call Me” is the most immediately memorable tracks off the album. The songwriting, the performances and the production all lend themselves well to becoming a modest hit here.
Kyle Denis: I think “Ojos Tristes” is the album’s best bet for a lasting hit, though there’s an outside chance that “Bluest Flame” could do a little something. Generally, I’m not expecting a major hit from the album at all.
Jason Lipshutz: I am waiting for “Bluest Flame” to start getting some club pickup, particularly as the weather heats up and pop fans are salivating for Brat Summer II. The album highlight, co-written by Charli XCX herself, leaps off the speaker with movement and moxie; Gomez has been part of dance hits in the past, but she’s never operated at this Boiler Room-ready frequency before, and the surprise is part of the appeal. Maybe “Bluest Flame” never cracks the top 40, but I could certainly see this one becoming a cult favorite and minor hit.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s very telling about where pop music is in 2025 that the dreamy, downtempo bilingual collaboration with The Marias feels like it has a higher commercial ceiling than the hooky, uptempo teamup with Gracie Abrams — but “Ojos Tristes” certainly seems to have captured the moment and the momentum. Which is objectively pretty cool, even though I think “Call Me When You Break Up” is probably the better song.
4. While Selena Gomez was one of the biggest pop stars of the 2010s, she hasn’t put out a full album since Rare at the very beginning of the (pre-pandemic) 2020s. Do you think I Said I Love You First and its rollout re-establishes her as a major pop star of this decade as well?
Rania Aniftos: Sure, especially because Gomez is unique in her pop style. She’s always balanced vulnerability and ethereal sexiness well — and in an era of fun, flashy pop, it’s nice to see the return of a softer pop artist.
Stephen Daw: Does I Said I Love You First show that Selena is a great performer who deserves to be considered in the 2020s canon of pop stars? Sure. Do I think it signals the return of Pop Star Selena Gomez? No, and that is fine! Selena has made it clear in plenty of interviews that pop stardom is not something she’s aspiring for in this decade — in fact, it’s very likely that we won’t hear another solo Selena Gomez album, based on what she’s told us. I Said I Love You First, to me, is proof of concept that if Selena wanted to continue with her pop career, she very easily could; but that doesn’t mean that she will.
Kyle Denis: I think it reinforces her overall brand strength and general celebrity, but none of these songs have really caught on in a meaningful way, she and Benny couldn’t overcome Carti’s second week despite a breadth of variants, and the music of the record seems to have taken a backseat to the sappy theatrics of the press run – whether it’s a radio interview or that t-shirt. The album’s gotta at least spin out one top 40 hit before we talk about the reinvigoration of her pop star pull.
Jason Lipshutz: No — but that’s not the story that Gomez is trying to tell, or what she wants the album to represent. If Gomez wanted to seize the modern pop crown, she would have released a solo album full of radio-friendly gestures, instead of a swirling, slightly muted collaborative album with her fiancé designed as a peek through the keyhole into their relationship. Gomez has built her career in such a way that she doesn’t require hit singles to attract attention when she decides to return to music, and I Said I Love You First marks an idiosyncratic (and satisfying) check-in rather than any type of commercial bid.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it demonstrates what a big star she is in general, and how much people like her and want to see her do well. I don’t think she has the hitmaking clout she did a decade ago, and she probably won’t again, but she doesn’t seem to particularly care about that, nor should she. Regardless, any time she releases a new album for the remainder of her career — assuming that’s a thing she continues doing — it will absolutely be a major event for pop fans.
5. What’s another big-name artist-producer pop combo who you would like to see do a full album together?
Rania Aniftos: Addison Rae as the artist with Charli XCX as the producer. Give us the full Y2K fantasy!
Stephen Daw: Give me an entire album of Sam Smith and Disclosure songs ASAP. “Latch” and “Omen” are two of my favorite songs in Smith’s discography, simply because their voice blends perfectly with Disclosure’s dance flourishes. A whole album of recession pop bops from these two would be a dream come true.
Kyle Denis: I’ve needed this since 2019, and there’s still a chance it could happen with the final season of Euphoria, but I desperately need to hear a collaborative project between Zendaya and Labrinth. We’re also owed a joint EP from Ariana Grande and Cashmere Cat; “Be My Baby,” “Quit” and “Adore” have all held up beautifully. And because good things come in threes, I’ll also put in my bed for a Lorde-Disclosure project. “Magnets” is still a banger!
Jason Lipshutz: To think outside the box and stretch the definition of “producer” a bit: why haven’t we gotten any sort of collaboration between Adele and Rich Paul yet? Let’s get Adele at the NBA All-Star Halftime Show! Let’s have LeBron James deliver some spoken-word interludes on Adele’s next album! For fans of polished pop and professional basketball, the opportunities could be endless.
Andrew Unterberger: Calvin Harris and Dua Lipa have both fallen on somewhat hard times hit-wise — could a full-length team-up album be all it takes to have the pop world fall in love with them once more?
Music lovers, rejoice: Playboi Carti‘s 30-track opus is officially a hit.
The new set bows atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this week, moving 298,000 first-week units, according to Luminate — almost exactly triple the number posted by the rapper’s prior Billboard 200-topping effort, 2020’s Whole Lotta Red, in its first frame. In addition, the album charts all 30 of its songs on this week’s Billboard Hot 100, led by “Evil J0rdan,” which enters at No. 2, and already marks Carti’s highest-charting hit as the sole lead artist.
What’s most responsible for the star MC’s improved performance? And what other long-awaited hip-hop albums could meet with similarly explosive opening returns? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Playboi Carti debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 298,000 units moved of Music in its first week. Is that number higher, lower or about what you would have expected?
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Angel Diaz: I was hearing crazy predictions, like he was going to move 400k the first week, but this number is around what I expected. Carti going No. 1 was no surprise to those who pay attention.
Carl Lamarre: 298k sounds about right for Carti. Typically, an artist this early into their career can’t afford a five-year layoff. Carti has proven to be the exception, enjoying a torrid features run that has kept his name buzzy in the 2020s rap hierarchy. From Trippie Redd’s “Miss the Rage” to Travis Scott’s “Fe!n” to even Ye’s Hot 100 chart-topper “Carnival,” Carti is a can’t-miss addition every time he pounces on a track. That, plus his rabid fanbase salivating for more solo music, helped him land this incredible feat.
Jason Lipshutz: About what I expected. The follow-up to Whole Lotta Red has been hotly anticipated for years as Playboi Carti has built momentum via guest features and one-off singles. Because of that hype, Music was always going to score one of the biggest debuts of the year when it finally arrived — albeit with enormous streaming totals and no physical releases, which will be coming at a later date. With that in mind, a final figure of 298,000 equivalent album units sounds about right for this Carti project.
Michael Saponara: I’d say slightly under. I probably had him projected for the 300,000 to 350,000 unit range, but still a very solid week to debut at No. 1. Fans have been thirsty for a new Carti album for years, and it paid off in the streaming numbers.
Andrew Unterberger: I would’ve believed just about anything between 100k and 500k — so 300k is right in the creamy middle there, and totally logical.
2. Though it’s his second No. 1 album, Music debuts with nearly three times the units of his prior chart-topper, 2020’s Whole Lotta Red. What do you think is the biggest reason behind the wildly improved performance?
Angel Diaz: There was a ton of hype around this project, especially since Whole Lotta Red ended up polarizing fans. Whether you liked that album or not, WLR showed that he was willing to take risks and it’s hard to deny its influence in today’s landscape. Carti is the leader of the new school and showed that again with this tape. I expect Music to influence the game in similar ways. He took some big swings and showed his versatility with the R&B-type tracks.
Carl Lamarre: Absence makes the heart grow fonder. As I mentioned in my first answer, a five-year gap between albums typically works for well-established acts with proven track records. Carti’s fandom is otherworldly. After years of flexing his handy work on the features side, he’s reaping the benefits of his fans flocking for new music. Despite his meager output on the solo front, he’s a workhorse on the features side, and the results have been golden, both culturally and chart-wise.
Jason Lipshutz: When Whole Lotta Red was released, Playboi Carti was still a rising hip-hop talent with a squelchy sound and jabber-jawed delivery; now, he’s one of the biggest artists in popular music, responsible for a sub-genre and dozens of rage-rap imitators. The gap between Whole Lotta Red and Music gave Carti time to let his influence marinate across hip-hop, and for anticipation to build for his next project’s eventual release. Music’s first-week numbers were always going to surpass those of Whole Lotta Red’s, and for those paying attention, it’s not remotely surprising that the final tally tripled its predecessor’s debut.
Michael Saponara: Carti became the king of the sub-30-year-old rappers, and the leader of a generation in a lot of ways, between his beat selection, rapping styles and fashion. Whole Lotta Red set the sonic landscape of rap for the early 2020s. But as the feverish demand grew exponentially, the supply wasn’t there. He only released one song to streaming services in the time from WLR to Music. Although, Carti dished out a handful of assists with a high hit rate while stealing the show and dishing metaphors on tracks like Ye’s chart-topping “Carnival,” Future and Metro Boomin’s “Type Shit” and he carried Camila Cabello to the Billboard Hot 100 while veering into pop for “I Luv It.” Even as potential pump-faked release dates came and went, the anticipation for Music never waned.
Andrew Unterberger: Releasing 30 new tracks after five years in between releases is certainly a good starting point! But really, the answer is that music kinda caught up to Carti — he felt perennially ahead of his time for his first four or five years of recording, and now it seems like the rest of the hip-hop world has met him on his home turf, with Music really reaping the rewards.
3. All 30 of the album’s tracks debut on the Hot 100 this week, led by “Evil J0rdan” at No. 2 and the Weeknd-assisted “Rather Lie” at No. 4. Does one of those seem like it will be the lasting hit from this album, or do you expect one of the lower-charting songs to have longer legs?
Angel Diaz: I think “Rather Lie” is the safe pick here. However, you gotta remember that “Evil J0rdan” was released as a warmup in January of 2024, so I’m curious to see how long it would’ve stayed on the charts had it been released officially. Maybe it’s charting that high because fans have been waiting for it to hit streaming for quite some time now. I’ve certainly added to those numbers, because it’s probably my favorite song on the album.
Carl Lamarre: I’m happy that “Evil J0rdan” is having a moment, because Carti’s last sustainable hit on his own was probably 2017’s “Magnolia.” It would be great to see this song live in the top 10 for a few months, solidifying his superstardom and hitmaking abilities. And as much as I would love to see “Evil J0rdan” have that extended success, I’d also like to see “Backd00r” flourish and become a runaway hit. It’s a fun record that both the guys and girls can vibe with, and is a favorite among the cluster of collaborations Carti has on this album.
Jason Lipshutz: “Rather Lie” is the one, simply because it’s the track that best crystallizes Playboi Carti’s pop appeal. Songs like “Evil J0rdan,” which finally receives a proper release years after surfacing online, demonstrate the head-banging relentlessness of his style and will continue soundtracking freak-outs both solo and communal, but “Rather Lie” sports a catchy Weeknd hook, reined-in Carti verses and a recognizable verse-chorus structure. Radio will boost “Rather Lie,” and help it endure on the Hot 100 as other Music songs fade off the chart.
Michael Saponara: I think it’s going to be “Rather Lie.” An infectious hook from The Weeknd makes it digestible and can easily be engulfed by radio stations across the country. I expect “Rather Lie” to have legs into the summer, especially with Abel and Carti heading out on a stadium tour together. Don’t count out “Backd00r” either. It didn’t debut in the Hot 100’s top 10, but Kendrick Lamar’s unlikely meshing with Carti’s style shouldn’t go away as K. Dot has made a living on the charts for the better part of the last 12 months.
Andrew Unterberger: For now, at least, it’s “Evil J0rdan” by default — but I could certainly see this being an album where a track from the back end of the tracklist unexpectedly takes off several months from now, and ends up going so viral that we can’t believe we ever considered anything else Music‘s biggest breakout hit.
4. We’ve seen a number of hip-hop albums in recent years debut with a big first-week number and Hot 100 profile, but outside of Kendrick Lamar’s GNX, most have them have fallen off pretty quickly. Do you expect Music to still be a strong Billboard 200 contender a few weeks or a month from now?
Angel Diaz: Yeah, I expect this tape to have some staying power, especially with the weather getting nicer. We can’t underestimate how much younger rap fans and artists obsess over Carti. He even had Ye crashing out on X, because he was dominating the conversation once he finally dropped. Carti and Kendrick are the two kings of their respective generations.
Carl Lamarre: Music should stay a top 10 threat for a month at least. It’s a colossal return for Carti, who rolled out 30 new songs for fans who haven’t heard from him in half a decade. For some, it’s also a slog, where you’ll need constant replays to digest the project fully. It took me three listens to get through the entire album, maybe because I’m officially an old head. Now, imagine someone half my age who’s one of the Carti Faithful. This album was their Christmas — an extended one at that.
Jason Lipshutz: Yes, because Playboi Carti has leapt into the upper class of hip-hop. Sure, GNX includes multiple surefire hits, but it also helps that Kendrick Lamar is enormous, leading the cultural conversation and compelling a wide swath of listeners to return to his messages. Playboi Carti’s music has a different type of appeal, but he’s grown into a force of nature, with a young fan base hungry to stream 30-song projects full of blunt emotion, screeching production and different vocal contortions. His stature suggests that Music and its biggest hits are going to linger on the charts for a long time.
Michael Saponara: SWAMP IZZO. I just wanted to get that in here somewhere. Don’t expect Music to be going anywhere anytime soon from the charts: All 30 tracks debuted on the Hot 100 and fans are having fun sifting through the album with different sounds and flows grabbing their ears each listen. While Carti gets dinged for a lack of lyrical depth, he doesn’t get enough credit for sonic dexterity. From the rage rap to the 2010s trap, Carti served up a ranging platter showcasing his artistic repertoire across the thrilling 76-minute project. SEEEYUH.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s too big and will post streaming numbers too large for it to just go away anytime soon. But the streaming numbers are already starting to trail off in Music‘s second week — the album absolutely dominated the Apple Music chart during its first couple days of release, but now the only songs left in the top 10 are “J0rdan” and “Lie,” at spots No. 9 and 10, respectively. If the album continues to fade at this rate, and doesn’t generate some kind of late-breaking hit, it could still end up the mid-decade version of Lil Uzi Vert’s Eternal Atake: a set whose remarkable early performance was more about catching up to the artist’s prior popularity, rather than actually taking them to that next level.
5. Carti’s new album was arguably hip-hop’s most-anticipated going into 2025, coming nearly a full half-decade after Red. Who do you think now takes over the mantle of the artist with the most anticipated upcoming album?
Angel Diaz: Drake hasn’t dropped a proper solo album in two years, so I’m going to say him. I mean let’s tell the truth, everyone is waiting for his Blueprint 2 where he addresses this past year. The only other projects that I’m really anticipating are the upcoming Alchemist albums with Yasiin Bey and Erykah Badu.
Carl Lamarre: It’s not that he needs to drop, but I’ll go with Jay mainly because Drake is now standing at his front door, waiting to break his record for the most No. 1 albums by a rapper (14). Also, considering the treacherous bulls–t Jay overcame with the sexual assault allegations — which were dismissed with prejudice in the last few months — I would love to hear where his psyche is now, and his thoughts on the rap scene. It would make for some Grade-A caliber bars.
Jason Lipshutz: Flip one letter, and you’ve got “Cardi.” Even though it’s been seven years since Invasion of Privacy, Cardi B is still capable of ascending to the peak of the Hot 100 and snapping the hip-hop world to attention when she finally unveils a new full-length. The wait continues, but the anticipation has not waned.
Michael Saponara: Either A$AP Rocky with Don’t Be Dumb or Lil Wayne’s Tha Carter VI.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s sorta crazy to think we’ve now gone four years since the last proper J. Cole album, especially since he’s been teasing The Fall Off since the album before that one. Folks will still be excited to hear from Cole when he returns, but he’s got more to prove at this point than he’s had in a long time — and the longer he waits, the more work he’s gonna have to do to make his case.