five burning questions

For the fourth time in four tries this decade, Lil Baby has the No. 1 album in the country.
The rap star’s latest, WHAM (which stands for Who Hard as Me), bows atop the Billboard 200 this week (dated Jan. 18) with 140,000 first-week units. It follows the No. 1 debuts of 2020’s My Turn, 2021’s The Voice of the Heroes (with Lil Durk) and 2022’s It’s Only Me — albeit with the lowest first-week number of the four sets, and only one track debuting in the Billboard Hot 100‘s top 40: the Future and Young Thug collab “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” (No. 16).

What does the album bow mean for Lil Baby’s stardom? And what should he be focusing more on with his future album releases? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. WHAM debuts at No. 1 with 140,000 equivalent album units moved. On a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think Lil Baby should be with that first-week performance? 

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Kyle Denis: A strong 8. Pulling a six-figure opening week is nothing to scoff at, and Lil Baby has done it with his last three studio albums. WHAM’s numbers are even more impressive when you consider that the album doesn’t include any of the three solo standalone singles (“5AM,” “Insecurities” and “Touchdown”) he dropped leading up to the record’s full release. Given the lukewarm reception to WHAM online from casual and devoted fans alike, WHAM’s first-week performance is a triumph for Baby. 

Carl Lamarre: 10. I’m beyond elated if I’m Baby, because the internet wasn’t thinking too fondly of my release. Plus, I escaped Bad Bunny by a millisecond after he dropped his album two days after mine. For Baby, he’s no longer the indomitable force he was after his volcanic opus My Turn blitzed the industry in 2020. There’s no reason why LiAngelo Ball, an overnight success, should generate more traction than an established superstar like Baby to start the calendar year. Despite those glaring concerns, Baby ended up on top, and that’s what matters most.

Jason Lipshutz: A 7. Releasing an album in the opening week of the year can be a little dicey, as listeners divert their attentions away from Christmas music and refocus following their holiday breaks. Lil Baby placed a bet on being the biggest game in town once the calendar flipped over to 2025, and sure enough, he snagged another No. 1 debut — with a lower equivalent album units total than 2022’s It’s Only Me, but with a track list roughly half as long as its predecessor hampering streams a bit, so a six-figure bow is pretty impressive.

Michael Saponara: I think he’s gotta be at a 9. To outsell Bad Bunny and debut at No. 1 after Baby’s 2024 singles weren’t generating a ton of buzz is a major W. 

Andrew Unterberger: At least an 8. Yes, things might’ve tilted differently if Bad Bunny had a full first week to work with, but the fact that Benito made such a late charge and Baby still ended up on top — while also eclipsing SZA’s revitalized SOS blockbuster — is no small feat, and speaks to the rapper’s continued resonance.

2. The star-studded “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” with Future and Young Thug is the set’s top debut on the Billboard Hot 100, entering in the top 20. Does it feel like a long-lasting hit, or is it mostly bowing so high on the strength of its guest list? 

Kyle Denis: This doesn’t feel like a long-lasting hit to me, and it feels particularly tepid for Thugger’s first post-prison verse. I’d be surprised if any of the WHAM songs stick around and become hits on the level of “We Paid” or “Sum 2 Prove.” Maybe the Dominique album will fare better in that arena. 

Carl Lamarre: The more I listen to it, the more I like it, but I don’t see it having the endurance of being a long-lasting hit. A torrid Future coming off three No. 1 albums in ’24 alongside Thug’s first post-jail verse should be enough to blow the top off any record, but I don’t think these guys really brought their A-game this time. It felt more like a scrimmage versus a full-throttled performance.

Jason Lipshutz: Although it might never climb higher on the Hot 100 than its current peak, I think it’s going to endure. “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” was obviously newsworthy as Young Thug’s return to the microphone, but Lil Baby and Future match his level of urgency on the track; the beat, co-produced by Wheezy, wails and pummels, letting all three stars rise toward its intensity without relenting for a chorus. That lack of a hook might limit its crossover potential, but I’d bet on “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” continuing to accrue millions of streams and dominate hip-hop playlists in the coming months.

Michael Saponara: Young Thug’s first spotlighted verse since being released from jail combined with a Future reunion is a formula for commercial success. Baby capitalized on the moment and it’s a solid three-man weave between the Atlanta trio, but I don’t see it having a ton of staying power in the Hot 100’s top 25.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a strong song, and I don’t think it’s going to disappear from the culture completely, but I dunno if it really has enough of a hook — either in terms of a chorus or just an overall narrative coherence — to really keep listeners coming back. It’s great to hear those three voices together on a track again, though, no doubt.

3. Bad Bunny debuts just underneath Baby with his new set Debí Tirar Más Fotos, which notches 122,000 in an incomplete first week. Given that the album was released on a Sunday, already a full two days into the tracking week, do you think it’ll have a good shot at climbing to No. 1 on next week’s chart? 

Kyle Denis: Absolutely. Bad Bunny dropped a compelling project, and it’s resonating with people as several songs on the album morph into breakout streaming hits around the world. Between viral quotes from a Rolling Stone interview, an NYC subway takeover, a short film, and co-hosting The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, Bad Bunny has been extremely present throughout the past week, which will only help the second-week performance of Debí Tirar Más Fotos. Of course, Benito is also getting a lot of good press for his innovative approach to ticketing for his upcoming Puerto Rico residency. 

But this record also already has much more positive word of mouth than his last LP, 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, and that’s probably the clearest sign that DTMF momentum is just getting started. 

Carl Lamarre: I don’t see Baby’s album securing another week at No. 1 for this cycle. The fact that Bunny was only 18,000 units shy of sealing another No. 1 album after an incomplete week is telling, and worrisome for Camp Baby. There’s more chatter surrounding Bunny’s album because of the storytelling, the chances he took sonically, and the ingenious rollout. Bunny’s Rolling Stone interview and recent subway performance with Jimmy Fallon resonated more with people than Baby’s conversation with Charlamagne and his late-night outings.

Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. If you take a peek at daily streaming charts, Bad Bunny’s new album is not just performing strongly but seems to be gaining momentum, with the crackling “DtMF” leading a slew of tracks that will likely fly up the Hot 100 chart next week. The Sunday release helped prevent Bad Bunny from scoring another No. 1 album himself, but he’s got a great shot at getting there next week, especially considering that there are no new Lil Baby-sized debuts to for Debí Tirar Más Fotos to compete with.

Michael Saponara: Yeah, Bad Bunny should do another solid number next week as the tracks are still streaming well across DSPs. However, Mac Miller’s posthumous Balloonerism arrives on Friday (Jan. 17) which could interrupt Benito’s run at No. 1 pretty quickly should he claim the top spot next week.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah it certainly should be considered a frontrunner to claim the top spot in the next couple weeks. Really cool to see Bad Bunny on track to another enduring full-length, in the wintertime no less.

4. Lil Baby’s career momentum has been trending somewhat in the wrong direction since the 2020 breakthrough of My Turn made him one of the biggest stars in hip-hop. Does WHAM and the early reception to it give you confidence that he can turn that around? 

Kyle Denis: My biggest gripe with WHAM is how Baby is seemingly unwilling to deviate from the formula established with his mixtapes and first three albums. The record lacks standout moments, but it’s not a poor collection of songs – he’s just not pushing himself in meaningful or interesting ways. As it stands, Wham tells me that Baby is okay not fulfilling the role of “generation leader” that many tried to cast him in back in 2020. I think Baby has the talent to turn his momentum around, but it’s probably more of a matter of how happy he is with where he’s currently at. 

Carl Lamarre: For Baby to land back-to-back No. 1 albums despite falling flat musically speaks a lot to his fanbase. They still believe in him because of his Herculean effort on My Turn. In 2020, he accomplished what few fail to do in the modern-day rap era: conquer the charts and, more importantly, the hearts of listeners. That’s why fans of artists like Roddy Ricch still have hope, as he achieved that same feat with his 2019 debut album. But, like Roddy, Baby is possibly down to his last strike after failing to connect on his previous two projects.

Jason Lipshutz: Lil Baby is an interesting case study in 2020s hip-hop, where an artist can score multiple No. 1 albums and top 10 Hot 100 hits, remain a constant presence on New Music Friday through solo tracks and collaborations, command a sizable touring audience, and yet simultaneously feel like momentum is flagging because the genre is so focused on new voices and achievements. Over the past half-decade, Lil Baby has hunkered down on a winning formula, but also hasn’t taken the artistic chances that can help superstars grow into icons. The chart-topping success of WHAM is in line with what he’s done in the past, and there’s nothing wrong with those commercial wins — but taking the next step as a leader in hip-hop may require an evolution.

Michael Saponara: Turn it around to the level of 2019-2021 Lil Baby? No, but WHAM is a step in the right direction. The test will come next month as Baby already said his Dominique album is slated to arrive in February. Is the appetite for another solo body of work there just a month out? As the great Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend!”

Andrew Unterberger: It shows me that he still has the fan support that if he ever does release the right project to turn things around, it won’t be too late for him to actually do so. I don’t think this is necessarily the project for that though — it’s solid, but doesn’t really advance his artistry or sound in any meaningful way, so it seems unlikely to have an extensive impact outside of that core fanbase.

5. If you could advise Lil Baby on his next release, is there any particular direction or area of focus you’d recommend he zero in on? Anything to really recapture the excitement of his turn-of-the-‘20s run? 

Kyle Denis: Lock in with one executive producer – either Section 8, Twysted Genius, or someone brand new – and try to get back to the headspace that made you sound so voracious on your biggest and best records. And keep making sure those tracklists are tight and concise, WHAM was a good step in that direction.

Carl Lamarre: I would ease down on the Autotune and tap more into his heartfelt bag like he did the intro and outro of WHAM. I thought “Listen Up” and “Streets Colder” showed flashes of the old Baby regarding candor and vulnerability. That’s what made songs like “Emotionally Scarred” and “The Bigger Picture” instant classics upon first listen. Ultimately, he could be back in everyone’s good graces if he can connect the dots and inject that same pathos into his bars on the next album.

Jason Lipshutz: I find it interesting that “The Bigger Picture” — a smart, incisive single that captured the energy around the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests — has yet to receive a proper follow-up, or anything too overtly political, from Lil Baby. Maybe he’s not interested in that lane, but his level of thoughtfulness, refined flow and broad appeal would help him dominate it, if he so chooses. 

Michael Saponara: Instead of coming back next month with another solo project, I’d say to finish the joint album he teased with Future and mix in some Young Thug. I think that would really galvanize his fan base and put the rest of the rap game on notice while holding his own with a pair of his heavyweight ATL peers.

Andrew Unterberger: The answer is almost always “focus” — make an album that feels a little more purposeful in its songs, track ordering, guest list and overall messaging. I might also encourage Baby to do a team-up album with a younger, ascending rap star, someone who can maybe challenge him a little and get him a little more motivated to prove himself and his continued supremacy.

It’s officially that time of year again — on the charts, anyway. The proper holidays may still be a couple weeks ago, but the Billboard Hot 100 is in full seasonal swing, with timely perennials absolutely taking over the chart’s top tier.

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As it has at some point in all of the last six years — although it had to split time a bit last year — Mariah Carey‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” rules the Hot 100 dated Dec. 14, followed by last year’s three-week champ, Brenda Lee‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You.” And Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, already hits a new all-time peak this week by jumping to No. 3.

What other seasonal staples might hit new peaks on the Hot 100 this year? And how long until “All I Want” starts to seriously threaten the all-time chart record? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Though Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” captured the Hot 100 No. 1 for the first three weeks of the holiday season in 2023, this year Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is the first seasonal classic to claim the chart’s apex. Are you surprised at the changeover, or did you expect “All I Want” to reclaim its throne on the early side this year? 

Katie Atkinson: I had no doubt that Carey would reclaim her Christmas crown; it was just a matter of at what point in the 2024 holiday season. That said, it also feels very likely that Brenda Lee could rock her way back to the top of the Hot 100 Christmas tree this year. What was exciting about “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” hitting No. 1 for the first time last year was the idea that maybe a revolving door of holiday classics (or maybe even new seasonal songs) could jockey for that position each year, keeping the Christmas chart race interesting and festive — just like in Love, Actually (or in the real U.K.).

Kyle Denis: I’m not surprised at all. The Mariah Claus promotional machine has been in full swing since Oct. 2 – the date of her first Christmas-themed Instagram post of the year. Between her ongoing holiday tour and a new 30th-anniversary edition of Merry Christmas, both Carey and “All I Want” have been far more visible than Brenda Lee and “Rockin’” at this point in the season. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” reaching the top of the Hot 100 for the first time last year represented a lovely chart tribute to Brenda Lee, a beloved performer in her late seventies who got to watch her song hit No. 1 decades after its release. That said, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” remains the dominant holiday pop smash of this era, and will exist as the safest bet for the No. 1 slot in December unless there’s a special circumstance (such as Lee releasing a music video for “Christmas Tree” last year). Maybe Lee notches more weeks atop the Hot 100 during this and future holiday seasons, but Carey’s hit will remain bigger for the foreseeable future.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, Brenda Lee had a deserved nice moment for the song’s 65th anniversary last year, but Mariah remains the Queen of Christmas — and in the 30th-anniversary year of her Merry Christmas Album and its signature hit, there was never any real chance of anyone besting her.

Christine Werthman: Am I surprised that the queen of Christmas has reclaimed her throne? No, and I suspect that she will sit there all season. I was much more shocked that Brenda Lee topped the chart in 2023 simply because Mariah has been so dominant.  

2. Wham!’s “Last Christmas” ranking is perhaps the real headline news of this week’s Hot 100, as the ‘80s holiday staple reaches a brand-new peak of No. 3 this week. Why, after four decades, do you think the song continues to grow on the charts? 

Katie Atkinson: It’s just such a perfect pop hit, in addition to being a great Christmas song. And it’s celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, so just like Brenda Lee pulled out all the stops last year for the song’s 65th anniversary – new music video, round-the-clock media appearances, etc. – we’re seeing Wham!’s Andrew Ridgeley hit the interview circuit to hype up the beloved song. It hit No. 1 in the U.K. for the first time in 2021 and has spent a total of seven weeks in the top spot. I would love if this were the year for it to climb to No. 1 in the U.S.

Kyle Denis: Outside of it being a near-perfect pop song that’s gotten tons of new lives over the past few decades thanks to some stunning covers, I think “Last Christmas” is benefitting from a new generation of queer audiences connecting with George Michael’s lyrics. Long considered a queer Christmas classic, these new listeners can hear and see themselves in “Last Christmas” — and it’s likely they were introduced to the song through covers from pop stars like Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift. I definitely expect “Last Christmas” to continue surging in the coming weeks, especially as some of 2024’s biggest stars – like Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and ROSÉ — deliver their own spins on it this holiday season. 

Jason Lipshutz: “Last Christmas” has been a holiday staple for years now — but the top three of the current Hot 100 makes clear that Wham!’s classic is now considered precisely the third-biggest holiday staple, behind “All I Want for Christmas Is You” and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree.” The song has slowly grown in stature over the years, and while reaching a new peak on the Hot 100 is an achievement worth commemorating, I do think that No. 3 high will remain for quite some time, since Lee’s smash still outpaces Wham! in streams and airplay, and Carey’s holiday hit towers above both. Maybe “Last Christmas” eventually climbs to No. 2 this year or in the near future, but it also might have hit its ceiling this week.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s all about anniversary years, isn’t it? “Last Christmas” grows in estimation every year because it’s one of the best holiday-themed songs ever written, but it’s specifically spiking this year likely due in no small part due to sentimentality over the song celebrating its 40th birthday this year — and will do so only more so once the physical single versions of its anniversary reissue ship this Friday.

Christine Werthman: Because…it’s a vibe? In all seriousness, the song is usually a less invasive option than many Christmas songs. While “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is a showstopper and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” kicks it back to the oldies, “Last Christmas” seamlessly slides into playlists that aren’t even entirely holiday themed. It’s an easy one to play on repeat.  

3. Though both are now considered modern classics, neither Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” (No. 19) or Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” have yet hit the Hot 100’s top 10, both peaking thusfar at No. 11. Do you think this be the lucky year for Ariana, Kelly, both or neither?

Katie Atkinson: I’m going to wager that, on the strength of the good will around her performance in Wicked, this could be Ariana’s year. Anecdotally, it feels like I’ve heard “Santa Tell Me” more than ever this year – especially in Target, for what it’s worth – and this is obviously not scientific, but it just feels like the song has some serious tailwinds at the moment.

Kyle Denis: I’m going to give Ariana the edge; she’ll be incredibly visible this holiday season thanks to Wicked and the awards cycle for both film and music. She also has three physical 10th-anniversary editions of the “Santa Tell Me” single available on her website, and those will ship on Dec. 20. 

Jason Lipshutz: I predict “Santa Tell Me” to hit the top 10 for the first time this year, once some long-running non-holiday hits like “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Die With a Smile” (as well as Kendrick Lamar’s GNX material) naturally starts slipping. Along with the holiday season, we are currently in the Autumn of Ariana, thanks to Wicked dominating the box office and earning Grande raves (and a Golden Globe nod as of yesterday), in addition to hosting Saturday Night Live and seeing Eternal Sunshine pop up on year-end lists. “Santa Tell Me” will no doubt reach the top 10 of the Hot 100 someday — why not this season, during Grande’s red-hot streak? Other holiday songs may try to crowd it out and keep it down in the top 20, but I think “Santa Tell Me” will be… wait for it… apologies in advance… defying gravity.

Andrew Unterberger: Why not both? They’re the eighth- and ninth-highest-ranked holiday hits on the Hot 100 currently — so if they stay at their current trajectories, they’ll both have a pretty good shot at making the top 10 when Christmas music becomes all anyone is listening to in the next couple weeks to come. Unless Kendrick Lamar has a second 2024 album in the offing for late December; can’t totally rule out the possibility of course.

Christine Werthman: Unless there’s a cup of cheer and a sweet new sync in their future, neither of these songs are breaking into the top 10 this season. I know there’s a lot of Ari fever because of Wicked, but I don’t think it will drive more people to stream “Santa Tell Me.” Bah humbug!

4. Lower on the ranking, Laufey makes her Hot 100 debut with the new “Christmas Magic” from Red One. Does it feel like a future staple to you, or will most of its impact come this season?

Katie Atkinson: I could see it being a staple. It’s got that timeless, jazzy feel of a lot of holiday music, and Laufey taps into the same vibe that Zooey Deschanel mined with her She & Him Christmas project, which has become a mistletoe mainstay. Laufey and Christmas music go together like candy canes and cocoa.

Kyle Denis: No — then again, I don’t think anything attached to Red One will be a future staple. I also think Laufey can come a bit harder, though “Christmas Magic” is just fine. Regardless, it’s really great to see her on the Hot 100 for the very first time! 

Jason Lipshutz: “Christmas Magic” may not sound like a typical holiday hit, but Laufey has a ton of goodwill at the moment, with a passionate fan base and a growing number of casual listeners latching onto her singular style. Seeing her score her first Hot 100 hit with an Amazon Music holiday track was not on my bingo card! But it’s a well-deserved debut, and will lead to bigger things in 2025.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think this is necessarily the song that’s gonna do it, but I have every confidence in Laufey eventually finding her way to a holiday perennial — she’s got just the right voice and temperament for it, not to mention the sizeable following. (You can already see her versions of “Winter Wonderland” and “Santa Baby” creeping up the Spotify charts as well.)

Christine Werthman: This is a pleasant, jazzy little bop, but I can’t even listen to the full thing because I don’t have Amazon Music. I would guess there are many others like me out there, so I think this will have a limited impact beyond this year. Also, Red One has a 31 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and though I have not seen the movie, I am guessing it will not become the type of holiday classic that will help endear certain songs to listeners (like Home Alone for Brenda or Love Actually for Mariah). 

5. This marks Mariah Carey’s 15th week atop the Hot 100 with “All I Want,” leaving the song just four weeks shy of tying the all-time record held by Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” and recently matched by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” Do you think it’ll claim the record in the next couple years? 

Katie Atkinson: Yes. In fact, I feel confident in guessing that it will surpass the record next year. What will be most interesting is how many weeks it can sustain in the years to come after that. This unique way of piecing together weeks at No. 1 could create a truly untouchable all-time Hot 100 record. Long live the Queen of Christmas.

Kyle Denis: Barring any unforeseen rule changes, I think it’s safe to say “All I Want” will claim the title by the end of the 2025 holiday season. At least Lil Nas X can say his 19 weeks at No. 1 were consecutive! 

Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. Unless “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” makes a forceful push to become the top holiday hit, or something semi-recent like “Santa Tell Me” or “Underneath the Tree” explodes for some unforeseen reason, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is going to keep logging weeks at No. 1, year after year, and eventually own the all-time record. My question is, how far can it go once that record is claimed? If Carey keeps spending a month at No. 1 every year for the next half-decade, could we see “All I Want” reach 30 total weeks at No. 1? How about 40? Because of this annual tradition, the sky is the limit for what Carey could achieve as a perennial chart behemoth.

Andrew Unterberger: Yep, hard to see anything short of a holiday-themed “We Are the World”-type gathering of superduperstars getting in its way.

Christine Werthman: Oh yes, she’ll get there. Slow and steady wins the race! 

If you thought that we were finished with major releases for the 2024 calendar as we approached Thanksgiving and the beginning of year-end season, Kendrick Lamar let you know real quick that the year ain’t done yet.

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Two Friday afternoons ago (Nov. 22), Lamar snuck up on an unsuspecting public with the sneak-release of his previously announced new album GNX. The 12-track set builds on the momentum he established earlier this year with his Drake feud — which produced a pair of Billboard Hot 100 No. 1s in the Future and Metro Boomin collab “Like That” and his own “Not Like Us” — and produces a third Hot 100 No. 1 with “Squabble Up,” tops among the seven new songs the rapper launches into the top 10 this week, while also topping the Billboard 200 with 319,000 units moved.

Which is the most impressive of his current chart achievements? And how do we rate Kendrick Lamar’s 2024 at this point? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Kendrick Lamar’s GNX debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 319,000 first-week units — the biggest debut week for a rap album in 2024, despite no physical release and just 12 tracks’ worth of streaming totals — while also capturing seven of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100, including the entire top five. Which of the two achievements is more impressive to you?  

Kyle Denis: I think the Hot 100 feat is a bit more impressive. The first-week units total for GNX is commendable, but the figure is squarely in Kendrick’s usual ballpark. Occupying the Hot 100’s entire top five – in the face of the fast-rising holiday songs and some of the most stable smashes of the year – is the kind of feat that moves Kendrick into a different column. Tons of acts have had albums debut with over 300,000 units, but only three other acts – The Beatles, Taylor Swift and Drake – have simultaneously held the top five spots on the Hot 100. That’s the kind of stat that helps get you to GOAT status. 

Angel Diaz: I think both are equally as impressive. Selling that many units off pure streams and debuting No. 1 with no lead up or warning other than the GNX trailer he posted minutes before the album hit, is crazy when you look back on that fateful Friday afternoon here on the East Coast. But it’s also very cool to see “underground” West Coast rappers like Lefty Gunplay and Dody6 getting their first Hot 100 looks thanks to Kendrick. That’s unheard of in today’s landscape. 

Jason Lipshutz: The latter, not just because it’s a chart achievement that only Taylor Swift, Drake and The Beatles have done before, but because flooding the top 5 of the Hot 100 demonstrates how much bigger GNX is than Kendrick Lamar’s other recent output. After all, 2022’s Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers debuted with two songs in the top 5 of the Hot 100 and three total in the top 10 — impressive for any artist, but literally half as impressive as what Lamar just accomplished with GNX. A new Kendrick Lamar album was always going to be in contention for the biggest rap debut of the year, but we’ve never this level of consumption of his songs on the Hot 100, and that chart feat showcases the album’s true enormity.

Michael Saponara: MUSTARDDDD. I’d have to go with occupying the entire top five of this week’s Hot 100 as, ironically enough, Drake was the only rapper to ever do that before him. Kendrick’s had a commercial resurgence that just wasn’t as potent earlier in the decade and there’s something to be said that the Compton rapper has notched more No. 1 hits in 2024 than the rest of his decorated career combined. He’s also the first rhymer to have three No. 1 debuts on the Hot 100 in the same calendar year. 

Andrew Unterberger: Hot 100 for sure. He’s had Billboard 200-dominating albums before but he’s never blanketed the Hot 100 like this — to the point where he might even end up in the mix to have multiple No. 1s from the album before all is said and done. It’s crazy to see him so central to popular music right now, but obviously well-deserved.

2. GNX fell out of the sky on Friday at noon ET, with no advance warning. Do you think that promotional strategy ultimately helped, hurt or had no major effect on the album’s first-week performance? 

Kyle Denis: I honestly think it may have hurt the album’s first-week performance. With his run of diss tracks this spring and summer and a general elevation of his celebrity, Kendrick had millions of consumers ready to eat up whatever project he put out. I think giving people some notice, even if it was just 24 hours, would have resulted in slightly better numbers than a full-on surprise drop. A bit of notice would have allowed fans to mobilize and create their own listening experiences and made for a seamless DSP uploading process — GNX reportedly took over an hour to appear on streaming platforms for some users. These are small things, but they’re the kinds of moves that could have at least helped the album get closer to the 350,000 range. Not to mention, a pre-announced release date would have also given Team Kendrick time to get physical copies of the album available upon release – but that would also depend on when K.Dot finished the album. 

Angel Diaz: First of all, I’m sick of these surprise releases, man. I am begging for artists to chill out because they are making us lose our minds on a Friday and into the weekend. With that being said, as a fan, I love it and everyone I knew that’s not in this business were playing that album. You heard it at the barbershop over the weekend and out of car speakers, so yeah I definitely think that strategy had a major effect, especially for the casual fan seeing the chatter on social media and hitting play out of pure curiosity. The album being so good and having so much replay value also helped. 

Jason Lipshutz: The surprise release has become a tactic generally reserved for superstars… and since Kendrick Lamar is one of our biggest, the out-of-nowhere drop absolutely helped him here. The shock of GNX — no leaks, no heads-up, just a brand new Kendrick album to stream on your Friday lunch break — defined the pop culture discourse of that day, and immediate reactions began to bubble up on social media to keep streams high through the weekend. Not every A-lister could pull off that type of unveiling, but Lamar did here, and scored one of the biggest debuts of his career in the process.

Michael Saponara: I don’t think there was much of a major impact with the surprise release. To be honest, I kind of expected something along those lines from the elusive K. Dot rather than a traditional rollout. He only lost 12 hours so that resulted in a minimal lagtime in spreading the word that rap’s boogeyman had returned. Between the Drake feud and the anticipation from fans for a new project, there really was no wrong way for Lamar to deliver his next album. 

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think it really matters for its commercial performance — he could have released this album any which way and it still would’ve probably done about this well. But for maintaining the overall excitement level of his 2024, this was probably the best way to go.

3. “Squabble Up” debuts atop the Hot 100 this week as the top-performing song from the new album, but it has already been passed on the daily streaming charts of both iTunes and Spotify by both “TV Off” and “Luther.” Which of the three songs do you think will ultimately be the biggest hit from the set?  

Kyle Denis: Of the three songs, I think “TV Off” will have the biggest peak, but I also anticipate “Luther” following a similar trajectory to that of “Love,” Dot’s 2017 duet with Zacari. “Luther” might not ever reach the top of the Hot 100, but I expect it to have impressive longevity and stay on the charts longer than any other GNX track. 

Angel Diaz: I love “Luther”, but I really hope the West Coast street anthems like “Squabble Up” and “TV Off” stand the test of time and continue to perform in the future. So, to answer the question, I’ll put money on “Squabble Up.” 

Jason Lipshutz: “TV Off” and “Squabble Up” are the album’s two turn-the-volume-way-up anthems, and while “Squabble Up” likely benefited from being placed second on the track list and gaining listeners’ immediate attentions, “TV Off” is the more enduring battle cry, thanks to the stronger K. Dot flow, positively nasty beat switch and the instantly meme-able “MUSTAAAAAAARD” moment. Who knows? Maybe once the holiday music onslaught subsides, Kendrick can kick off 2025 with another Hot 100 chart-topper.

Michael Saponara: I’m gonna go with “TV Off” as the winner here. It’s topped the Apple Music charts and spurred a ton of chatter on social media with endless meme-ability thanks to Kendrick’s pair of “MUSTARDDD” shout-outs to the track’s producer. Lefty Gunplay’s ominous chorus has also been going viral. We’ll see what kind of staying power the trio has at the top of the Hot 100, especially with rumors of a deluxe falling out of the sky from K. Dot. 

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah prepare for a lot of out-of-nowhere “MUSTAAAAAAAAARD” howls in casual conversation this holiday season.

4. Between his three No. 1 singles and now a No. 1 album as well, this is undoubtedly Kendrick Lamar’s biggest year on the Billboard charts. Do you think he ever would have had a year like this if not for the Drake feud that initially ignited it, or do you think he was due for such a legacy year at some point in his career regardless? 

Kyle Denis: I think he was definitely due for a year like this – and the DAMN./Black Panther period would have sufficed if this year had never happened – but I’m not sure he gets it in 2024 specifically without the Drake feud. 

Angel Diaz: I think he was due for a legacy year, but this is the way you do it in rap. This is the same thing Jay-Z did when he dissed Nas on “Takeover” the summer before he released his seminal album The Blueprint in 2001. However, Nas was nowhere near the level Drake was commercially, and Jay dissing him ironically resurrected his career while also placing Jigga on the throne. Rap really hasn’t had a power struggle for the crown since then. Did it benefit him? Sure. But he took the throne fair and square. 

Jason Lipshutz: This type of year was always lurking within Kendrick Lamar, a singular superstar with a nearly unanimous approval rating, but 2022’s Mr. Morale suggested that he was turning away from commercial prospects in favor of idiosyncrasies and self-examination. Maybe a course-correction was coming, but the Drake feud — and before that, the talk of a “Big Three,” placing Kendrick on the same field as his peers when he believed he was playing a different sport — helped focus his superpowers, and provoke a year-long assault against his naysayers, October’s Very Own included. GNX is not about Drake, per se, but the album punctuates the assertion that Kendrick has spent 2024 making: there is no competition.

Michael Saponara: To this level, I can’t say I saw that coming. He hasn’t been that same kind of commercial titan since DAMN. and that’s over seven years ago at this point. There’s an argument Lamar was due for a “legacy year,” but I think the Drake feud added kerosene to the fire and gave him the lane to become rap’s undoubted MVP for 2024. It’s the biggest rap battle in decades between two of the greatest to do it, so of course it’s going to have a profound impact on the winner. But again, I’ll say I was wrong in that if there was a hit record to come out of the battle, I thought that was going to be Drake. 

Andrew Unterberger: He might’ve been due for more of a commercial on cycle — since Kendrick has long sort of been on a one-for-them, one-for-me career path — but you have to imagine that he needed the Drake thing to take him to this. We’ve just never seen Kendrick Lamar get his blood up like this for an entire year before. It must have been something that was stewing in him for some time.

5. Is this the best year a rapper has had this decade? 

Kyle Denis: I’m going to say yes. Shoutout to Megan Thee Stallion’s 2020 and Doja Cat’s 2021, though! 

Angel Diaz: I think that’s fair to say, but going back a little further, we must remember Future’s 2015 run when he dropped Beast Mode, 56 Nights, DS2 and What a Time to Be Alive. Big Fewtch also had himself an impressive 2024 — with three Billboard 200 No. 1 albums — that was a bit overshadowed by Drake and Dot’s main event.  

Jason Lipshutz: Yes, because Kendrick Lamar’s 2024 combines great music with a great narrative — enormous singles, blockbuster collaborations and a no-skips album coalescing around a battle that’s heated, personal and entertaining as hell. His year has transcended stats and honorifics, and become a cultural phenomenon. It’s one that hip-hop fans are never going to forget.

Michael Saponara: Yeah, I can’t see there being much debate about that. Not only the decade, but let’s open that up to the century. Then you’re talking Drake’s ‘18, Ye’s 2010-11, Wayne’s ‘07-’08 and 50 Cent’s 2003 off the top of my head, and Kendrick belongs in that discussion. Three No. 1 hits, one of which flipped the script against rap’s pop deity to defeat him in battle, and an acclaimed album that popped up as a late contender for album of the year honors. Oh, and it’s possible he’s sweeping at the Grammy Awards a month into 2025 before heading out on a stadium tour. This was one for the history books, Dot. 

Andrew Unterberger: Hell yeah.

It’s been a hell of a year for singer-songwriter Gracie Abrams, who’s made the jump from acclaimed cult favorite to pop hitmaker — and perhaps just straight-up pop star.

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Abrams, who undoubtedly received a boast from her opening slot on the biggest tour in modern pop history, scored a career-best ranking on the Billboard 200 this summer when her The Secret of Us debuted at No. 2, with tracks “Close to You,” “Risk” and the Taylor Swift-assisted “Us” all hitting the Billboard Hot 100. A few months after, the album’s “I Love You, I’m Sorry” went viral on TikTok, ultimately reaching the Hot 100’s top 20. And now “That’s So True,” a bonus track from the Secret deluxe edition, has bested them all, jumping from No. 13-6 this week to become Abrams’ first-ever Hot 100 top 10 hit.

What’s been responsible for Abrams’ recent surge of momentum? And what kind of chances does the song have of heading off Shaboozey’s historic “A Bar Song” run at No. 1?

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1. A few weeks after being released as a bonus track on the deluxe The Secret of Us “That’s So True” rides serious streaming momentum this week to become Gracie Abrams’ first top 10 hit. What do you think it is about this song that’s helped her reach new chart heights that not even the singles off Secret could reach?

Katie Atkinson: There are so many reasons I personally love this song. There’s the ’90s vibes (this could have had such a huge Pacey/Joey moment on a Dawson’s Creek mid-season finale). There’s the lyrics that are somehow both uber confident and self-conscious. There’s the under-three-minute runtime that never ceases to convince me to immediately run the song back as soon as it’s finished. There’s that great songwriter trick of writing about something so specific that it somehow ends up feeling universal. And there’s that epic bridge that must make Gracie’s Eras Tour-mate feel like a proud parent. Mostly, it’s just a great song that begs for repeat listens, and streaming is there to make that easier than ever.

Kyle Denis: In addition to being a song filled with accessible, relatable lyrics and a vocal affect that recalls the best of Taylor Swift and Lorde’s conversational approach to pop singing, “That’s So True” is a prime case study in momentum. Arriving as the fourth overall single from The Secret of Us, “That’s So True” automatically has the biggest potential audience out of all the album’s singles because it can build on their success. Each Secret of Us single has reached a higher Hot 100 peak than the last. When you couple that with the incomparable platform that is being an opener for the final leg of Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour, all the pieces were perfectly placed for “That’s So True” to become Abrams’ biggest chart hit yet.

Rylee Johnston: What really helped with the momentum of the song is the way she teased her fans with the song during live performances before it was ever released. She was able to drum up excitement and build an anticipation of “when is she going to drop the song?” Once she released the deluxe version of her album, it made sense that her fans would be eager to stream and listen to it repeatedly. 

Jason Lipshutz: “That’s So True” crystallizes Gracie Abrams’ songwriting appeal, and arrived at a time when her momentum allowed for a fast-moving top 10 hit. Abrams’ aesthetic took a massive leap between last year’s Good Riddance and this year’s The Secret of Us, and “That’s So True” features both her most immediate hooks and a more defined point of view than past singles — you get the sense that no one else could deliver it quite like Abrams. Combined with the upward trajectory of her live audiences and streaming numbers, “That’s So True” was primed to be a breakthrough hit.

Andrew Unterberger: It just feels like her strongest song yet. It helps that audiences are more familiar with Abrams now and the hallmarks of her singing and songwriting, so a new song feels like a natural fit in our lives, but there’s a reason this song took off more than any of the other newly released tracks off the deluxe Secret of Us — it’s classic enough to feel recognizable right away, regardless of our Abrams familiarity level.

2. Though this is her first top 10 hit, obviously Abrams has been rising for some time now, with “I Love You, I’m Sorry” even reaching the top 20 recently. What is the biggest reason for her surge in 2024 momentum, do you think?

Katie Atkinson: Of course her placement on Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour was incredibly impactful for building a fanbase, but then Abrams put out her best work yet with The Secret of Us and was able to immediately capitalize on all that newfound interest. Just like Sabrina Carpenter before her, the Eras Tour opening slot puts you in front of more eyeballs then ever before, but you have to have the excellent music to back it up

Kyle Denis: Most of Abrams’ 2024 momentum can be credited to moves she made the year prior. She spent most of 2023 playing stadiums on the Eras Tour, which granted her the chance to win over the tens of thousands of fans that packed out those venues each night. Given the similarity of her music to Swift’s, that wasn’t too difficult of a feat for her to pull off. The tail-end of 2023 also found Abrams linking with Noah Kahan – one of that year’s biggest breakout stars – for “Everywhere, Everything,” which helped her snag her very first Hot 100 entry, building off the early momentum she earned with her debut LP at the start of the year. All she needed was one undeniable single to reach the next level of pop stardom.

Rylee Johnston: The Eras tour has definitely helped Abrams in gathering a larger audience and I’m sure her time as an opener has come with some advice from Taylor Swift. At the scale that the Eras tour is at, she’s able to test things out and play her music to thousands of people across the globe, while picking up new fans along the way who may not have heard of her beforehand. 

Jason Lipshutz: Earning a best new artist Grammy nod, opening for Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour and headlining her own shows obviously helped increase Abrams’ profile — but simply put, these songs are stronger, more distinct and revealing of Abrams’ perspective than those on her debut. While “I Love You, I’m Sorry” became a viral hit and “That’s So True” a deluxe-edition smash, The Secret of Us tracks like “Risk,” “Close to You” and the Swift collaboration “Us” boast top-notch pop craft, and have each earned hundreds of millions of streams. After a promising debut that yielded a bigger platform, Abrams delivered a great sophomore LP, and is reaping the benefits now.

Andrew Unterberger: This is sorta facile to say, but I think artists like Abrams — who have a strong writing voice and an already devoted fanbase — reach a tipping point of mainstream popularity where the world just kinda opens to them. Maybe Eras got her through the door, maybe she woulda gotten there anyway, but she’s in the building now, and she’s just gonna keep elevating to higher floors from here.

3. Most of the talk about the breakout pop stars of 2024 has centered around Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan — is it time to start including Abrams in that conversation, do you think, or is she still to early in her development for that?

Katie Atkinson: It’s definitely time. Abrams has had a different trajectory than those two examples – most notably, she was nominated for best new artist at the Grammys earlier this year, whereas Roan and Carpenter are facing off in that category at the 2025 ceremony. She might be one hit away from truly reaching the spot Sabrina and Chappell now occupy, so maybe 2025 will be even bigger for Gracie.

Kyle Denis: I think it’s too early. I’m happy to have that conversation next year, but until Abrams is pulling festival crowds the size of the one Chappell pulled at Lollapalooza – or simultaneously three solo songs from the same album in the Hot 100’s top ten for multiple weeks à la Sabrina, for that matter – we can pump the brakes.

Rylee Johnston: I don’t think she’s far off, but she’s still new to this level of the industry and I think she’s still taking time to hone and perfect her craft. That’s not to say it isn’t coming anytime soon though: Give it a year or two and I bet we will see Abrams at their level. 

Jason Lipshutz: It’s absolutely time to include Abrams, because, like Carpenter and Roan, her rise has been defined by more than one song. If Abrams had simply scored a single modest hit from The Secret of Us, then I’d be a little more dubious about the reach of her stardom — but “That’s So True” is a top 10 hit, “I Love You, I’m Sorry” is a fan favorite turned viral smash, and her Taylor Swift team-up is nominated for a Grammy. Maybe Carpenter or Roan could command bigger audiences at this moment, but this isn’t a competition; all three artists deserve to be recognized for a breakout 2024 that has set up years-long runs for each of them.

Andrew Unterberger: If it’s not time yet, it will be by the end of the year, or next January / February at the latest. She’s done it a little slower and more quietly than Roan and Carpenter, but what she’s building is just as real and sustainable — and we’ll see the fruits of it on her next album, if not earlier.

4. How much bigger do you think “That’s So True” can still get from here? Will we see it unseat Shaboozey from No. 1 before the Christmas rush takes over?

Katie Atkinson: Between Shaboozey and Christmas, I don’t know if “That’s So True” will have the juice to get all the way to No. 1. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it climbs higher in the top five over the next few weeks, as curiosity (and airplay) grow. This is the kind of song that could kick around the top 10 for a very long time.

Kyle Denis: “That’s So True” is in a tough spot because while I believe it has a lot of room to grow, the song will almost certainly be kneecapped by the incoming surge of holiday songs and year-end hoopla. If it doesn’t unseat “A Bar Song” next week, I fear Mariah will enter the ring as her second major opponent the following week. 

Rylee Johnston: It’s tough, “A Bar Song” has lasted a historic run and has held strong even against major contenders like Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Swift and Carpenter. I’d personally love to see it happen, but I think Shaboozey may continue his reign on top until the holidays. I don’t think she’s stopped climbing though, I just don’t think it has enough power with this much time left of the year to reach No. 1. 

Jason Lipshutz: If we had another month before the holiday onslaught, then I’d say probably — but really, we’ve got a week or so before Mariah, Brenda and Burl come for us all. Unless “That’s So True” can blast to the top of the Hot 100 before the calendar flips to December, I’d say that its best chance at hitting No. 1 will be in mid-January, if its momentum can keep up for a few months.

Andrew Unterberger: I think if it gets to No. 1 it won’t be until comfortably into next year. It’s gonna need some major radio help, and radio is still too busy testing the waters with the couple Abrams singles before this (“Close” and “Sorry”) to give this song the attention it probably deserves. It’s just a question of if the song’s streaming and cultural power remains potent enough to force radio to shift attention to it — and if it can maintain that streaming hold for long enough to take advantage of it finally spreading across the airwaves.

5. Abrams has a major platform still at her disposal for another few weeks in her opening role on the Eras Tour. If you were on her team, what (if anything) would you advise Abrams to do in her final concerts to potentially drive additional interest in the song?

Katie Atkinson: She still has the music video in her back pocket, and even if she doesn’t unveil the video during her Eras Tour set (it doesn’t seem likely she would do that on Taylor’s stage), the mere mention that a video exists onstage could go a very long way.

Kyle Denis: Right now, I encourage her to keep doing what she’s doing. Continue using different versions of the song’s sound on TikTok and letting it reach people organically. It’s still early in the song’s run, so pulling out the big guns is probably unwise. But once January rolls around, start fielding possible remix options. I’d love to hear Clairo or Maggie Rogers on this, but maybe we should go with a more unexpected pick like Rachel Chinouriri or Faye Webster? Something tells me that this isn’t the kind of song that needs an A-lister remix to reach its full potential. 

Rylee Johnston: The ultimate tactic would be another duet with Swift, but if that’s not as easy to execute, then coming up with another viral moment is key to keeping her song relevant. Whether she takes a page from the “Fortnight” singer and changes a lyric in the song or mashes it up with another song, those are just a few things that can drum up further excitement. 

Jason Lipshutz: Maybe the official music video premieres live during Abrams’ final opening set of the Eras tour? Yet if the goal is a shot at No. 1, I’d drop the visual on Jan. 1, 2025 — start off the new year but making an end-of-2024 smash even bigger, at a moment when the holiday music is being stored away for another year.

Andrew Unterberger: With the song’s “Smiling through it all, yeah, that’s my life” lyrics referencing one of LeBron James’ most iconic social media moments, how about getting the King to show up to one of the remaining Toronto dates to provide a guest verse or some backing harmonies on it or something? Are the Lakers playing the Raptors any time in the next week?

The benchmarks just keep falling: A week after tying Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” for the longest-running Billboard Hot 100 of the 2020s, Shaboozey‘s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” moves into sole possession of the mark this frame with its 17th week atop the chart.
What’s more, the song now stands along as the second-longest-running No. 1 in Hot 100 history — just two weeks behind the all-time mark set in 2019 by Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road.” And Shaboozey may have gotten another boost in momentum with Friday’s (Nov. 8) announcement of the 2025 Grammy nominations, with the country hybrid artist picking up four nods, including best new artist and song of the year for “Bar.”

How surprised are we that “A Bar Song” has gotten this far? And do we see it going all the way at this point? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. “A Bar Song” spends its 17th week atop the Hot 100 this week, moving it into sole possession of the second-longest run atop the chart in its history. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you that it’s lasted on top now for this long? 

Rania Aniftos: 4, maybe? There haven’t been many chart-dominating releases that would dethrone “A Bar Song” since the summer. In quieter eras of music releases, it makes sense for the track to make its way back to the summit. It also plays at every bar, restaurant and on every radio station, so its popularity is clear.

Kyle Denis: 10, for sure. I was always extremely confident in this song’s ability to stay at No. 1, but I anticipated that it would begin to fall around the eight-week mark. I did not expect such a historic run at No. 1.

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Sure, “A Bar Song” is a wildly catchy anthem from a charismatic new artist, with a sound that can cross over to different streaming playlists and radio formats… but chart circumstances are rarely conducive to a 17-week No. 1, and especially during a year that’s featured big hits from proven superstars (Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, Billie Eilish, Morgan Wallen) and new A-listers (Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan). “A Bar Song” could have been a huge, multi-platform hit but been knocked off by one of those big names after a month or two on top; instead, Shaboozey can fending off all challengers, and stunningly, now owns the longest-leading solo hit in Hot 100 history. 

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a 10. I remember being thrilled that the song grabbed a single week at No. 1, because even that didn’t seem like a sure thing until well into its chart run. The fact that it’s held on for over four months in total since then would’ve been totally unforeseeable — even when we started having the “could it…?” conversations at around the 12-week mark, I thought it was absurd. Not anymore though!

Christine Werthman: 10, although I probably shouldn’t be that surprised. Country is the genre of 2024, with everyone and their mother (aka Beyoncé, our matriarch) getting in touch with their twangier roots. And as someone who remembers quite well the power of J-Kwon’s “Tipsy,” which Shaboozey interpolates, at parties in 2004, it’s no wonder that “A Bar Song” has appealed to the masses and held onto that top spot.  

2. Both of the songs to spend 16 weeks atop the Hot 100 this week have been country songs — why do you think a genre that rarely spun off Hot 100 No. 1s this century until a few years ago is now regularly spinning off such long-lasting chart-toppers? 

Rania Aniftos: I think it’s a mix of things. For the first time in what feels like a while, there are exciting young stars in the genre like Morgan Wallen and Kelsea Ballerini, plus some long overdue diversity with people like Shaboozey and Beyoncé. On top of that, you have established pop stars like Bey and Post Malone dipping their toes into country, introducing the genre to an audience who might not have given it a shot previously. It’s a recipe for success. 

Kyle Denis: With “A Bar Song,” Shaboozey was able to supplement his (and the song’s) crossover appeal with legitimate support on country radio, breaking Carrie Underwood’s record for longest-running No. 1 debut single on Country Airplay (seven weeks). Of course, it also helps that 1) country music is the sound of one of the year’s most dominant cultural aesthetics, and 2) the song mines early ‘00s nostalgia with its interpolation of J-Kwon’s “Tipsy.” 

Wallen’s “Last Night” also draws on contemporary hip-hop motifs with its use of 808s, smartly positioning it for crossover appeal (it reached the top five on both Pop and Adult Pop Airplay) and placing it conversation with where hip-hop’s mid-to-late ‘10s dominance pushed the mainstream’s overall sound.

While these are certainly country records, both songs make a concerted effort to bridge the gaps between country’s sound and hip-hop’s influence on top 40 in a way that the genre’s previous Hot 100 chart-toppers didn’t necessarily do. 

Jason Lipshutz: The shift we’ve seen in popular music over the past 10 years is the mega-hit that is able to combine country listeners and pop listeners, in order to form like Voltron and plop itself atop the Hot 100 for months on end. It’s happened with non-country artists making songs that appeal to Nashville listeners (like Lil Was X with “Old Town Road”) and country artists crossing over to pop fans (like Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night”). Both audiences have been sizable for decades on end, and while they’ve overlapped before to produce huge artists and albums, until recently, they did not combine at the top of the Hot 100. It’s a type of alchemy that has helped “A Bar Song” turn into a juggernaut, and one that we’ll surely be seeing more of in the near future.

Andrew Unterberger: Radio, radio, radio. Country has now fully made the crossover leap to pop radio — at least at the highest level of hits — and once you get both of those formats working for you, you can stay in the mix for the Hot 100’s top spot practically indefinitely. Consistent streaming and sales also have been part of the Shaboozey formula, of course, but without that continued radio support it would’ve been lucky to crack double-digit weeks on top, rather than pushing for the all-time Hot 100 record.

Christine Werthman: If I had a dollar for every time someone told me, “I love all kinds of music but not country,” or, “I like old-school country, like Johnny Cash, but not any of the new stuff,” I would be able to retire. But those responses have changed a lot over the past few years, and I think a lot of credit is due to Taylor Swift being a gateway to country (although she walked away from the genre), as well as Lil Nas X and “Old Town Road.” That song pushed country to a new audience and showed that “the new stuff” didn’t have to mean corny pop-country smashes. Other artists took note and are now reaping the benefits.  

3. There was such turnover on the Hot 100’s top spot this spring — why do you think “A Bar Song” has seen such a lower level of competition in its late-year run? 

Rania Aniftos: As I mentioned before, there weren’t really any summer releases that really dominated the charts the way we’ve seen in other years, besides Sabrina Carpenter’s new songs. I feel like the past few months on the Hot 100 have been a revolving door of the same few songs, because there haven’t been many album drops from big, established stars. So, unless a big release comes through this fall and shakes things up, the chart’s going to look the same for a while. 

Kyle Denis: Few songs can compete with the crossover appeal of “A Bar Song.” The song has hit seven different Billboard radio charts and it’s still in the top five of several of those rankings. “A Bar Song” even reached a new peak on Adult Contemporary Airplay this week (No. 12, chart dated Nov. 16). While other songs have been juggernauts within their home genres, “A Bar Song” was able to outlast them by having a wider audience to pull support from.

There’s also something to be said about some of the year’s biggest pop songs facing competition from other songs on the same album. Sabrina Carpenter is juggling four different hits, “Good Luck, Babe!” is fighting for attention against Chappell Roan’s entire debut LP, and Billie Eilish’s “Birds of A Feather” is soaring alongside the steady growth of “Wildflower.” Though he’s pushed other songs post-”A Bar Song” — namely “Highway” and his BigXThaPlug-assisted “Drink Don’t Need No Mix” — none of them have emerged as a viable follow-up smash. 

Jason Lipshutz: Coincidental timing, more than anything. In my opinion, a lot of the No. 1 singles from the first half of the year — “Like That,” “Fortnight,” “Lose Control,” “I Had Some Help,” “Not Like Us” — would have also hit No. 1 in the second half of the year, and cut into “A Bar Song’s” monster run, had their release dates and/or commercial rises been slightly shifted by a few months. The first six months of 2024 were stuffed with blockbuster singles, and a lot of them nestled in for extended runs in the top 10 of the Hot 100 throughout the summer and early fall, while “A Bar Song” kept outpacing them thanks to its own growth across formats.

Andrew Unterberger: I had hoped that the massive activity of this spring would be the new rule rather than just an exception to the overall early-year chart stasis we’ve seen in prior years this decade — but we just might not have enough songs and artists offering the excitement level to really shake up the top of the Hot 100 to spread out over a full year at this point, sadly. So we traded a boring spring for a boring autumn this year, and it’ll ultimately balance out for the full calendar. So it is.

Christine Werthman: The average time spent on the Hot 100 for songs currently in the top 10 is 25 weeks. Morgan Wallen and Tyler the Creator have newer songs at Nos. 9 and 10, respectively, but the top five average is even older at 32 weeks. Things are just moving slowly, and listeners like what they like and keep coming back to what they know. Play the hits, as they say! 

4. Shaboozey was nominated for best new artist, and “A Bar Song” song of the year, at this year’s upcoming Grammys. Which Big Four category do you think he has the better chance of winning? 

Rania Aniftos: The competition is tight in both categories, but I’m going to say best new artist. He’s up against some longtime Recording Academy favorites in the SOTY category, like Billie Eilish, Beyoncé and Taylor Swift, so he might get luckier in the BNA category, highlighting his breakout year. Who knows though? The Grammys are always surprising. 

Kyle Denis: A country song hasn’t won song of the year since Lady A’s “Need You Now” (2011), and that’s one of two nominations for country songs in this category in the past 10 years. Conversely, eight country artists have earned best new artist nods in the past decade, with Zac Brown Band being the most recent winner (2010). 

Even though “A Bar Song” is easily the biggest chart hit nominated for song of the year, it’ll likely split votes with Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” (the other country song in this category) and lose some pop voters to Taylor Swift, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, and Billie Eilish. What could work in Shaboozey’s favor, however, is his lack of a nomination in record of the year. Song of the year is the only place in the general field where the Academy can specifically honor the longest-running solo Hot 100 No. 1 single of all time.

On the other hand, as the sole country nominee in a best new artist field brimming with straightforward pop stars, Shaboozey could end up taking home that trophy. It’s still early in the race, but I think he’s got a better shot at winning best new artist. 

Jason Lipshutz: Song of the year. While there are some huge names in both categories, my early guess is that best new artist will go to either Chappell Roan or Sabrina Carpenter, considering that both artists have rattled off multiple major hits instead of one enormous smash. Because “A Bar Song” has become so year-defining, though, I think Shaboozey has a great shot in the song of the year race.

Andrew Unterberger: He’s not necessarily the favorite in either category, but I think best new artist is at least a possibility if the poppier nominees cancel each other out a little. That’s where I’d be exercising the most campaigning muscle if I was on his team, anyway.

Christine Werthman: I never guess these correctly, so let’s say, song of the year, knowing that it’ll probably be best new artist. Grammys: so mysterious! 

5. Will “A Bar Song” beat the “Old Town Road” all-time record of 19 weeks atop the Hot 100?

Rania Aniftos: Very likely, especially as the Grammys approach and, if the song gets some wins, it might get yet another boost on the charts.

Kyle Denis: Barring any surprise drops or an earlier-than-expected surge in holiday tunes, yes. 

Jason Lipshutz: I’ve been saying no for a while, and I will still say no. We’re two weeks away from a tie and three weeks from a new record, and with holiday music about to take over, it will be a photo finish either way. But 20 weeks (or more!) at No. 1 still boggles my mind to such a degree that I can’t count on multiple more weeks atop the chart. I’m rooting for Shaboozey at this point, but I were a betting man, I’d wager that “Old Town Road” remains on top.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it will? I never like betting against the unknown — which is why I’ve been betting on Shaboozey continuing on at No. 1 to this point — but we’re running out of time for surprises, and Christmas season probably isn’t going to get here quite quickly enough to block him. I can’t maintain my skepticism at this point; I think “A Bar Song” is gonna get to 20.

Christine Werthman: Holiday parties are coming up, and those playlists need to pop. I think “A Bar Song” will be a fixture and end up breaking that record. Everybody in the club gettin’ Shaboozey! [Whispers: Everybody in the club gettin’ Shaboozey].