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Six weeks into the run of Taylor Swift’s The Life of a Showgirl blockbuster, we still haven’t seen a new album really challenge it for the top spot on the Billboard 200 — but slightly lower in the top tier, some artists have enjoyed new breakthroughs. One of those comes this week, with Rosalía‘s much-anticipated new album LUX.
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The ambitious set arrived with a good amount of hype, based around some of the pre-release buzz and reports (including in Billboard‘s own cover story) that it would feature the Spanish cult-pop star singing in 13 different languages. LUX was immediately met with unanimous critical acclaim, and now has posted the best first-week numbers of her career, bowing at No. 4 with 46,000 equivalent album units.
What does the debut mean for Rosalía’s career? And do we agree with all the rave reviews? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Rosalía’s LUX album debuts at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 with 46,000 units moved, both career highs. On a scale from 1-10, how excited should she and her team be about that first-week performance?
Leila Cobo: I’d say 11. Here’s an album that defies all parameters: for Rosalía, for music in Spanish, for pop and commercial music as a whole. It’s a complex album, performed in any different languages, by a pop star but in a highly sophisticated classical music format. I don’t know how much Rosalía shared with her team as she progressed through this work, but I have to think there was some concern. Would it work? Would it be too much? Would it be too difficult to consume for the TikTok generation? Would consuming it short-form somehow degrade the product? How the heck do you market this? How do you get people to listen? Yet somehow, all of that resolved. She was able to achieve her highest ever debut with a highly complex work of music. It’s very exciting and unprecedented for both Rosalía and for the music industry as a whole.
Isabela Raygoza: 8 or 9. It’s her best chart placement and biggest first-week sales ever, which is huge. Think about it: breaking into the top five on a chart dominated by global megastars, especially with an experimental, genre-bending album sung in 13 languages? That’s impressive, especially for someone pushing artistic (experimental/operatic) boundaries rather than chasing hit formulas. Sure, it’s not blockbuster numbers like the ones Taylor Swift (110,000 units) or Morgan Wallen (76,000 units) are still posting well after their initial release — but for someone who’s carving her own lane internationally and redefining Spanish-language albums on the global stage, this performance is a major win! It shows her growth, and opens the door for more mainstream recognition while maintaining her artistic cred.
Dan Rys: Probably a 10. She’s always been a cultural force of nature, but hasn’t had the big sales and streaming numbers to back that up — in the U.S., at least, as globally she’s a different story. But no matter which way you cut it, this is a true commercial breakthrough in the States for Rosalía, one that really proves that she can deliver on all the hype and hysteria that surrounds her. Given the reception to the project, it’s not hard to imagine her getting a No. 1 album next time around, depending on how the cards fall.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe an 8.5. It’s a very impressive debut for a very wide-reaching album, and really shows how Rosalía has built her brand as an albums artist, to the point where fans are more intrigued than put off by the idea of her attempting something so challenging. My score is slightly tempered by the fact that 46,000 is a relatively low unit total for a top five debut — in many other weeks this year, it’d have fallen outside the top five. But then again, the fact that she’s willing to stake her claim now, at a relatively inert time for pop music outside of the absolute biggest names, is arguably just reflective of the boldness she’s operated with her old career.
2. Rosalía had not scored an album in the top 30 of the Billboard 200 before LUX. What do you think is the biggest factor behind this album reaching new chart heights for her? Leila Cobo: First, fans were anxiously awaiting a new Rosalía album. But beyond that, I think the marketing has been absolutely brilliant and major. Perhaps because it was a “difficult” album on paper, the marketing and promotion that went into it was outsized and very thought-out, and it worked brilliantly. The stage was set with the lighting stunt in Madrid to unveil the cover. And then, that very risky proposition of making “Berghain” the first single, and releasing it with that brilliant video, that made a huge impact and got everyone talking. It told the world this was going to be an unapologetically unique album, and you either would experience it or be left out. People chose to discover and propelled her up the charts.
I’d say it’s a combination of the more commercial droplets that bridged her first two albums, the danceable bent of 2022’s Motomami and subsequent world tour, and general anticipation for the Spanish star’s side of her and Rauw Alejandro’s breakup. Also, now that she’s four albums in, it’s practically expected that a new Rosalía album will be a masterpiece. That level of excitement and respect shows in how fervently people tuned in during the album’s debut week.
Isabela Raygoza: I think it’s her growing global recognition paired with the critical acclaim for her unflinching artistic evolution. After El Mal Querer (2018) and MOTOMAMI (2022) established her as an avant-garde force in music — someone fusing flamenco with pop, reggaetón, and experimentation — fans and critics alike have come to expect boundary-pushing projects from her. With LUX, she leaned even harder into high-concept artistry (avant-garde classical pop sung in 13 languages, featuring orchestral movements), which not only attracted devoted fans but piqued the interest of curious listeners eager to hear what she’d do next.
Add in rave reviews and media buzz over her bold exploration of themes like heartbreak, religion, and femininity — plus strategic promotional efforts to highlight the album’s depth, and you have the perfect mix of growth, intrigue, and artistry that made LUX her most successful debut yet. It feels like she’s transcending niche boundaries and turning into a celebrated global name.
Dan Rys: I think this is partially just a natural progression for an artist that has always had a lot of interest around her, and also a really creative marketing campaign. Everything was a little mysterious, a little wink-wink, a little “you have no idea what you’re in for,” and that built a lot of buzz around the release. She only gave fans a glimpse into it with “Berghain” a few days before the full album, and it seemed like that kicked things into overdrive — people didn’t know the context of the song within the broader album, so they were just blown away by the scope of what she was delivering. That song is pure opera and musicality. If anything, the interest went through the roof for what else she was capable of here.
Andrew Unterberger: She’s done a brilliant job of establishing herself at pop’s vanguard — someone who fans want to follow no matter where they go, and whose popularity is almost completely removed from single success. She’s done that through smart collaborations, through a less-is-more attitude towards mainstream exposure, and most importantly, through albums that critics and fans really cherish, with very few obvious compromises in between. 3. Despite the album’s performance and some strong streaming numbers, the set has yet to notch a hit on the Billboard Hot 100. Do you think it ultimately will — and does it matter for her album cycle?
Leila Cobo: Aside from “La Perla” I truly don’t see a Hot 100 song in this album. Everything is a bit esoteric, hard to qualify into a radio format. However, I don’t think this will ultimately matter for the album cycle, and the way Rosalía is promoting it reflects that. For example, the first focus track was “Berghain.” But she performed “La Perla” on Jimmy Fallon and a different track at Spain’s Los 40 Principales award. Clearly she is thinking this is a full work, rather than a series of singles.
Kyle Denis: I think “La Perla” is the album’s best shot at a Hot 100 hit. Perhaps “Sauvignon Blanc” or “Reliquia” could make something shake as well. But a Hot 100 hit doesn’t matter at all for LUX. The album itself could have completely missed every chart and it would still be one of the best and most important projects of 2025. In a year that has forced every player in the music industry to seriously contend with AI on a commercial level, Rosalía’s commitment to human artistry through her album’s sprawling orchestral and linguistic twists is incredibly vital.
Isabela Raygoza: I don’t think LUX needs a Billboard Hot 100 hit to solidify its success during this album cycle — and that’s part of Rosalía’s magic. While she’s proven she can deliver global chart toppers with previous singles like 2022’s “Despechá” (No. 63 on Hot 100) and other hit collabs, LUX is operating on a very different wavelength. It’s not an album designed for mainstream, algorithm-friendly bangers; instead, it’s presenting itself as avant-garde classical pop. The fact that it debuted so high on the Billboard 200, while the single “Berghain” achieved strong streaming numbers — nearly 59 million global Spotify streams in just three weeks — already suggests it’s resonating deeply with fans, even without a Hot 100 presence.
Now, will LUX notch a Hot 100 hit? It’s possible, especially with moments like Rosalía’s performance of “La Perla” on The Tonight Show on Sunday (Nov. 16) — her fairy tale-inspired staging could drive more interest. With 36 million Spotify streams already, “La Perla” (with Yahritza y Su Esencia) has the potential to grow into a sleeper hit if paired with targeted radio pushes, TikTok promotion, or even surprise remixes to give it a commercial edge.
Dan Rys: I don’t know if it will, because the first-week surge in streams is usually indicative of which singles will emerge as chart hits. But that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have a number of songs that could. One of the biggest talking points around the album in the days before release — that she sings in more than a dozen languages across its songs — may ultimately be a deterrent in the race for a true hit, while the wild musicality of “Berghain,” impressive as it is, does not scream “chart-topping success.” But in a vacuum, a song like “Sauvignon Blanc” is a gorgeous, delicate pop ballad — Adele would be celebrated for it. “La Perla” is capable of reaching mass appeal with its waltz-like rhythm and inviting instrumentation. “Reliquia,” “Porcelana” — these songs don’t sound like anything else right now and are worthy of hit status. But will they reach the Hot 100? I’m not so sure.
Andrew Unterberger: Based on the early returns and showcase moments “La Perla” definitely feels like it could get there. But it might not. This album might not produce a hit. Or, it might not produce a hit for seven years, until some song unexpectedly hits viral gold and becomes the late-appreciated “Ribs” or “Party 4 U” from this set. Or, she could give one of the most memorable performances in Grammy history and have a song go top 10 the next week. It’s all possible with this set, and none of it really matters: Whatever this album’s legacy ultimately ends up being, its Hot 100 presence (or lack thereof) will ultimately play a pretty small part in it.
4. LUX has earned a 97 on review-aggregating site Metacritic, the highest score of any 2025 album. Do you think it earns its immediate and unanimous praise? Leila Cobo: I do. And I don’t say this lightly. I’m a classical pianist with a degree in piano performance and I listened to this album in a very critical fashion. While it’s sometimes confounding, the risks that it takes are worth the listen, especially at a time when music has become so watered down, so much a product that chases the platforms, that much of it is truly disposable. This album forces you to take a different route.
Kyle Denis: Yes. I can think of maybe three mainstream pop stars who could pull off something as impressive and as meticulously curated as LUX.
Isabela Raygoza: Wow, that’s an A+ — and it feels well deserved. She clearly took her time (three years) crafting LUX as a very intentional and thought-out album, not just releasing material for the sake of putting music out like so many artists today. It’s ambitious, and pushes boundaries — all while keeping her voice and vision at the core. It’s the kind of album that earns unanimous praise because it raises the bar for what pop music can be.
Dan Rys: Not to dodge the question entirely, but I think that an album finds its audience, rather than earning or deserving one. But having said that, I think that this album was largely received so well by that audience because of its sheer scope — it feels like she put three years of work into it, and the end result is just stunning in myriad ways. In an era when some artists are cutting multiple songs in a day off the top of their head without thinking too much about quality and process, it stands out for its ambition and its dedication to its own curiosity. When you can really tell someone has put an enormous amount of work into a piece of art and the result sounds so majestic and expansive and limitless? Then yeah, maybe it has earned that praise.
Andrew Unterberger: Surprisingly so, yeah. I was left pretty cold by “Berghain” ahead of its release, so I was definitely worried that this was going to be a moment I was going to have to view curiously from the outside. But not only do I really like most of LUX, “Berghain” sounds so much more explosive and transfixing in full album context as its centerpiece that I’ve come around on that too. I still don’t love the whole thing yet, but I do love more of it with each listen, and I’m excited by an album that intrigues and captivates without showing its full hand the first time out. 5. Rosalía is a two-time Grammy winner, but has never been nominated for album, song or record of the year. Obviously LUX was released too late for this year’s Grammys cutoff — do you expect it to be one of the main contenders in the general categories at the 2027 awards?
Leila Cobo: I would be very surprised if it doesn’t get an Album of the year nod, especially in the wake of Bad Bunny’s nomination this year. I don’t say that because the two albums are similar, because they aren’t at all. But because the Academy clearly is allowing music in other languages to finally enter the competition for album, song and record of the year. Also, LUX has been so completely acclaimed at all levels of the industry — from mainstream media to Latin media, from fellow artists to well-known critics and cultural writers — that not including it would seem preposterous. As far as record and song of the year, I wouldn’t wager on that yet.
Kyle Denis: I think her and Olivia Dean (The Art of Loving) have already secured their spots in the 2027 album of the year Grammy lineup.
Isabela Raygoza: This is a conversation I’ve already had with my editor and it’s a strong YES. I’d be surprised if LUX wasn’t a major contender in the general categories at the 2027 Grammys. Its critical acclaim, Billboard 200 placement, and ambitious artistry make it a strong candidate for album of the year, IMO, while songs like “Berghain” could easily find recognition in record or song of the year. The fact that Rosalía chose to release LUX after the Grammy cutoff date is commendable — it shows she prioritized crafting a thoughtful, intentional album over rushing to meet deadlines, which is refreshing in an industry where we’re often bombarded with hurried releases. That level of care makes it feel even more deserving of top honors.
Dan Rys: I’m not sure if it will, though that’s more a reflection of the Grammy process than the quality of the work. Song and record of the year nominees often skew towards hits with at least some commercial success, and as we’ve noted earlier this isn’t likely to have one big song that emerges from the overall album, which is probably more a testament to how cohesive the project is as a whole. Album of the year could be a different story; each year there are at least one or two left-field or outlier picks that nod to pure musical achievement as opposed to chart-topping success or a mix of the two, and Jon Batiste even took home the trophy in 2022 for the No. 25-peaking We Are, so there’s recent history there. But there’s also an awful long way to go before we get there.
Andrew Unterberger: Again, surprisingly so. You certainly wouldn’t write it in permanent marker just yet — it’s still incredibly early in the Grammy year, and sometimes releases like this that seem initially momentous lose momentum and attention quicker than you expect. But given the unanimity of the critical praise, the narrative hookiness of its backstory, the relative familiarity (and continued Grammy success) of Rosalía as an artist and the fact that Bad Bunny really has opened things up for Spanish-language artists being recognized at the awards’ highest levels, I’d feel pretty comfortable already calling her a likely AOTY nominee, and song and record don’t feel like big reaches either.
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The breakthrough stories in pop the past month have been few and far between, as Taylor Swift continues to rule the charts with her Life of a Showgirl album and its singles, and most artists have seemed largely content to stay out of her way. One exception is an artist who has been enjoying her greatest stateside successes the past few weeks, just below Swift’s stratosphere: Olivia Dean.
The U.K. singer-songwriter and BRIT School alum currently boasts four hits on the Billboard Hot 100 — her first four career entries on the chart — led by the ebullient “Man I Need,” which cracks the Hot 100’s top five for the first time on this week’s chart (dated Nov. 8). Meanwhile, her sophomore album The Art of Loving debuted at No. 8 on the Billboard 200 three weeks earlier, and has stayed in the top 10 each week since, holding at its No. 6 peak this week.
How has Dean managed this breakthrough? And what can she do for the rest of 2025 to ensure she makes the most of it? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Olivia Dean’s “Man I Need” cracks the Billboard Hot 100 top five this week, moving 8-5. Why do you think the song has become such a breakthrough hit for her?
Christopher Claxton: Olivia Dean has found a unique gap in music and filled it beautifully. Her sound has this timeless quality, it’s the kind of music you might imagine finding in your grandfather’s record collection, but she’s bringing it to a new generation, introducing Gen Z to classic, romantic sounds. She’s not chasing trends or virality; she’s carving out a legacy of her own. That freedom and authenticity is exactly when the magic happens. Her music feels both contemporary and timeless, which is why “Man I Need” has resonated so strongly and broken through to the top five. Kyle Denis: Outside of “Man I Need” being a really well-done and obviously catchy pop song, the song’s soulful foundation also allows it to benefit from the momentum R&B has seen on the Hot 100 in recent months. Of course, it also helps that the song’s TikTok teaser campaign ensured a voracious audience before its release, and her current opening slot on the final leg of Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet Tour certainly doesn’t hurt either.
Taylor Mims: Dean’s “Man I Need” has arrived just in time for cuffing season. The track has enough perky pop stylings to feel like we aren’t quite in winter yet, but Dean’s soulful voice is bringing us into a bundle-up Autumn when it is time to find a partner for the colder months. It is an earnest song about trying to find love and getting on the same page with a possible partner, timed perfectly for the season of commitment.
Michael Saponara: What a fun, playful bop to invade the top five before 2025 ends. A pop piano blended with an earworm of a chorus, you can’t help but sing along and move your shoulders to Dean’s soothing vocals. It’s been intoxicating and I keep coming back for more with every listen. There are themes of yearning for a certain type of lover that everyone can just about relate to at any point in life.
Andrew Unterberger: It just feels like it was the right song at the right time for Dean — I don’t think the song in itself is necessarily all that spectacular, but it’s charming in the ways she’s always charming, and clearly we were at a place where the public was ready to embrace her with open arms.
2. Meanwhile, three other songs are moving behind “Man” on the Hot 100: “So Easy (To Fall in Love)” (No. 43), “A Couple Minutes” (No. 87) and “Nice to Each Other” (No. 94). Do any of these songs feel like a second major hit for her? Christopher Claxton: In my view, the songs most likely to become her next major hits aren’t necessarily reflected by the current chart positions. I’d rank them: “Nice to Each Other,” “So Easy (To Fall in Love),” and “A Couple Minutes.”
“Nice to Each Other” explores the idea of wanting to keep a romantic partner at a distance, but instead of feeling sad, it comes across as freeing, a track you can dance to. “So Easy (To Fall in Love)” is another song that’s immediately infectious and makes you want to move. “A Couple Minutes” isn’t quite a dance track, though it could work for a slow dance with someone special.Overall, none of these songs reinvent the wheel, but they’re far from boring or predictable. Olivia Dean has a way of making familiar themes feel fresh, which is part of what makes her music so compelling.
Kyle Denis: “So Easy” feels like a natural follow-up, it’s already the second-highest charting song from the album and it’s not too much of pivot sonically or thematically.
Taylor Mims: “So Easy (To Fall in Love)” seems to be the natural follow up to “Man.” It seems to be gaining the most traction behind “Man” and has a similar enough sound to satisfy folks who are looking for a bit more. It is also upbeat and playful, so it can easily stand on its own to catch new listeners with lyrical content that still evokes cuffing season. The horn section also make the track feel a bit whimsical for a perfect holiday track.
Michael Saponara: “So Easy (To Fall in Love)” feels like a natural fit for Dean’s next jazzy-pop hit. It’s sitting just outside the top 40 and with more and more eyes on her stateside, I could see Gen Z wrapping their arms around the bossa nova track, which radiates a breeziness that would brighten anyone’s darkest day. Amy Allen gets another notch in her belt on the songwriting side.
Andrew Unterberger: “Nice to Each Other” feels like the logical song to me — and what a great music video — but it’s pretty clear that “So Easy” has the momentum at the moment. Still betting on the former, but hoping we have time and space for both to enjoy a nice moment in the sun. 3. While “Man I Need” breaks into the Hot 100’s top five this week, Dean’s The Art of Loving album remains one spot removed (No. 6) from doing the same on the Billboard 200. Do you think it’ll get there, or will it stay stuck just outside that region? Christopher Claxton: The Art of Loving weaves together piano, strings and drums to create a sound that’s unmistakably Olivia Dean’s, while nodding to her neo-soul and Motown roots. I think the album has room to climb higher, especially as “Man I Need” rises on the Hot 100 and new tracks like “A Couple Minutes” make their debut on the chart this week. Fans will keep streaming the album, and with three songs now making waves, new listeners are likely to discover the tracks and, in turn, explore the album as a whole. I wouldn’t be surprised if it eventually breaks into the top five on the Billboard 200.
Kyle Denis: I definitely think it will get there. The current success of “Man I Need” and other album tracks keep the album afloat, and Olivia’s adult contemporary branding will prime her for the kind of demographic that actually buys music during the holiday season. And, of course, if she pops out with a Grammy nomination on Friday ahead of her SNL debut next week, the sky really is the limit for The Art of Loving.
Taylor Mims: Based on Dean’s current trajectory, The Art of Loving will be in the top five in the coming weeks. Her other tracks are gaining traction, as is her jazzy, soulful sound. Plus, this Saturday she will be the musical guest on Saturday Night Live, which will undoubtedly draw plenty of new listeners and boost her numbers making her a shoe-in for the top five the week following.
Michael Saponara: The arrow is clearly pointing up for Olivia Dean, and I expect her surge to continue into the year’s end. While there are plenty of music’s titans in front of her taking up real estate, I do think there will be a week where she sneaks into the top five.
Andrew Unterberger: It’ll get there — possibly in the next couple weeks, possibly after the Christmas clear-out. But I can’t imagine this album is going away any time soon, so eventually the moment will be right for it to make that jump to the next tier.
4. At a time when few artists besides Taylor Swift are making major waves on the charts, Olivia Dean seems to have real things brewing. What do you think is the biggest factor behind her slow-building success?
Christopher Claxton: I think the biggest factor behind Olivia Dean’s slow-building success is her ability to blend genres seamlessly. Neo-soul is in her blood, her mom introduced her to Lauryn Hill’s music, and Olivia’s middle name, Lauren, is actually a tribute to Hill. Beyond her influences, she tells a story with her music: from the first spark of a crush, to the anxiety and excitement of love, to heartbreak and reflection. Dean’s songs are highly relatable, yet they’re delivered through a sound that feels fresh and distinctive, which has helped her steadily gain traction on the charts. Kyle Denis: What fascinates me most about Olivia’s rise is how it both reflects and responds to shifts in the culture. 2024 felt like a year moving away from the cultural domination of pussy rap in the late ‘10s and early ‘20s and general sex positivity. Even if Sabrina got away with most of Short n’ Sweet, for example, her Man’s Best Friend album cover garnered a level of controversy that honestly felt overblown. While Dean is simply making the music she feels called to create, it doesn’t exist in a vacuum. When I read social media moment praising her “class” and “tastefulness,” often while disparaging more sex-forward performers, I can’t help but think about how the overall rise in American conservatism is explicitly and covertly shifting what we consume at the mainstream level.
Taylor Mims: It sounds cheesy, but talent. In a time when we are seeing a lot of quick viral success off a song or two, Dean has been “brewing” for a while. The Art of Loving may be the breakthrough album, but she is on her second full-length album following 2023’s Messy, and has been slowly gaining traction for years rather than finding success overnight. A good opening slot on a major tour can do incredible things for a growing artist and Dean opened for U.K. star Sam Fender (and debuted on single “Rein Me In” with him) earlier this year, bringing her to the attention of a huge audience. Her talent did the work from there.
Michael Saponara: Artist development. Dean boasts a great lineage coming from the prestigious BRIT School that produced music deities like Adele and Amy Winehouse. At 26, she’s lived a little more life than some college-aged artists thrust into the spotlight. Dean’s clearly defined her lithe sound, which comes packaged with a distinct vision for her artistry. There’s more under the hood when it comes to the depths of her creativity, compared to some hitmakers, that appeals to different generations of listeners. It’s one thing to have a pink Instagram profile, compile likes on social media and hit the charts, and it’s another to pass the in-person test with flying colors. With the British singer opening for Sabrina Carpenter on the final leg of her U.S. Short n’ Sweet Tour, the sold-out crowds have made sure to be in their seats early (over an hour before Carpenter takes the stage) and truly engage with Dean’s performance, rather than scroll on their phones and treat an opening act like background noise.
Andrew Unterberger: Her readiness. She reminds me of Sabrina Carpenter — who she’s even opened for on recent tour dates — in that everything she’s done since her breakout started earlier this year reflects someone who seems in all ways prepared for a moment like this: musically, professionally, personally. She looks comfortable in the spotlight, and so it’s not surprising that every release and appearance of hers appears to be drawing more fans into her world.
5. If you were part of Olivia Dean’s team, what would you advise her to do — if anything — in the year’s last couple months to take advantage of the momentum she’s currently building?
Christopher Claxton: I’d advise Olivia to capitalize on this momentum by doing as many interviews and social media connections as possible to keep engaging both new and existing fans. On top of that, dropping a 3-4 song Christmas EP featuring her signature, unique sound could be a smart move, something seasonal but unmistakably Olivia Dean, which could introduce her to even more listeners before the year ends. Kyle Denis: I think they’re doing everything perfectly. If anything, I’d start booking her for some holiday and year-end TV specials to help audiences continue to put a face to Olivia’s name. And start fielding names for a potential “Man I Need” remix!
Taylor Mims: Saturday Night Live is a great next move. Following that, there should be wind in her sails and it is about keeping her top of mind as folks begin to retreat indoors. “So Easy (To Fall in Love)” is a logical next single to push, but “A Couple Minutes” feels like a smart turn. The track is already moving on the charts and resonating with fans, and has both dramatic and cinematic qualities to slow folks down during the hectic holiday months.
Michael Saponara: Keep doing what they’re doing. Opening for Sabrina has been a great look as she continues to check boxes in her ascension to stardom across the pond. Having Dean on popular platforms that will only add to her visibility and further ingratiate her with the pop music scene is a more general suggestion I’d have. I love that she’s going to be performing on SNL in a couple of weeks. Whatever’s ahead in the next few months, you hope Dean’s rise is capped off by holding the Grammy trophy for best new artist on Feb. 1, and then the sky is the limit.
Andrew Unterberger: Some artists do well to keep a low profile on the media front and build mystique through their inaccessibility. That is not Dean: She should be out there doing as many performances and making as many high-profile appearances as she feels comfortable with, making sure she has the chance to win over as many potential converts as she possibly can. Give her enough opportunities and she just might grab ’em all.
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Last week was all about the history: In its debut frame, Taylor Swift‘s The Life of a Showgirl album set single-week records for most units moved (4.002 million) and most copies sold (3.478 million) — while also notching all 12 of its tracks in the top 12 of the Billboard Hot 100, led by first single “The Fate of Ophelia.”
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This week? Showgirl is still showing out, holding atop the Billboard 200 and claiming 12 of the top 14 spots on the Hot 100. But the counting numbers are a little more modest now — 338,000 units for the album in week two, a significant drop from week one (albeit still one of the top five weeks for any album so far in 2025).
What do we make of those first-week numbers? And what would we advise Taylor to do for the rest of 2025 if we were on her team? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
1. Taylor Swift holds atop the Billboard 200 with 338,000 second-week units moved by her The Life of a Showgirl album. Is that Week Two number lower, higher or about what you would have expected?
Katie Atkinson: Where I would have expected. That would have been an exceptional week 1 number for almost every non-Taylor artist, so while you could focus on the album’s precipitous drop from the 4 million-plus mark, it’s just as easy to frame it as an impressive stand-alone week outside the context of her history-making debut. The higher you climb, the harder… you know the rest.
Stephen Daw: It’s slightly lower than I would have expected. A big drop-off was guaranteed — when you break through the ceiling of first-week sales like Showgirl did, there is nowhere to go but down — but this one is slightly steeper than I would have anticipated. In its second week, Tortured Poets moved roughly 100,000 more units that Showgirl has here, which may have more to do with Swift front-loading the number of album variants on offer for this LP’s rollout than anything else. But either way, this album having the fifth-biggest week of any album in 2025 in its second week is still an accomplishment that only Taylor Swift could achieve in 2025.
Kyle Denis: Much lower, considering this is her lowest second-week units total since 2020’s Evermore (not counting re-recordings). Given the plethora of available formats, constant buzz and conversation and a lead single that didn’t immediately tumble from the top, I thought 350,000 would be the absolute lowest Showgirl pulled in its second week.
Joe Lynch: Between “about what I expected” and “higher.” Much to-do was made of Swift hitting that insane four-million mark thanks to variant versions, so I was genuinely curious what week two would look like. In 2025, 338,000 units is a first-week home run — in fact, it’s the fifth biggest week of the year so far — so it’s an incredible showing for week two.
Andrew Unterberger: Definitely lower, but it makes sense. Swift was clearly pulling out all the stops for that first-week number to be as high as it could possibly be — and she certainly got one higher than I believed was possible. Meanwhile, she knows week-two numbers aren’t nearly as much of a topic of conversation, and (correctly) figured that the streaming numbers would be massive enough to keep her instilled atop the Billboard 200 for some time to come regardless.
2. In addition to still rating atop the Billboard 200, Swift also reigns for a second week on the Hot 100 with “The Fate of Ophelia,” while still commanding 12 of the top 14 spots on the chart. On a scale from 1-10, how impressive do you consider that second-week chart dominance?
Katie Atkinson: 10. Commanding eight of the top 10 in the second week of an album is certainly unprecedented. The most interesting part about this week two lineup is seeing how the songs shuffled around a bit. We still have the same four highest tracks (“Ophelia,” “Opalite,” “Elizabeth Taylor” and “Father Figure”), but then “Wi$h Li$t” slots in front of “Wood,” the title track leapfrogs “Actually Romantic,” and “Eldest Daughter” swaps with “Cancelled!” Since it’s not a “listening to the track list in order” situation, we can get a better idea of what songs are settling in as repeat Swiftie favorites.
Stephen Daw: 9.5. This, to me, is the vastly more impressive feat that Showgirl has accomplished this week. Tortured Poets managed to hold onto the No. 1 spot and the lowest-ranking slots on the Hot 100 in its second week, even with massive sales numbers. While the songs off Showgirl might not have too much competition for the top 10 the way Poets did — it was up against newer, year-defining hits like “A Bar Song” and “Espresso” — the fact that Taylor has managed to keep a grip on eight of the top 10 spots is a massive deal, and one that no other artist today could accomplish.
Kyle Denis: 8. The first time Taylor clogged the Hot 100’s top 10 (Midnights), she only claimed four of those spots by the second week. When she did it again with Tortured Poets, she held onto just three of those spots the following week. Maintaining nearly the entire top 10 — barring the summer-dominating hits “Golden” and “Ordinary” — with an album that was arguably received even worse than her last two is definitely impressive.
Joe Lynch: 10. Keeping this much of the Hot 100’s top slots on lock for the second week is unheard of, literally—this is the first time an artist occupied 12 of the Hot 100’s top 14 spots in the second week of their album’s release. Prior to Showgirl’s drop day, I listened to many people ask incredulously, “How much bigger can she actually get?” We might not have the final answer to that question for a while, but for now, it’s clear Swift is still rising.
Andrew Unterberger: 9. It shows that not only did she claim all 12 of the top 12 spots last week, she grabbed them by the throat — by enough of a margin that her numbers could fall dramatically (as they inevitably did in the set’s second week) and still maintain a chokehold on the chart’s top tier. Staggering stuff.
3. Beyond “Ophelia,” does there seem like an obvious second hit off the album to you? Or does the way the album was released discourage any additional hits from breaking out from the larger album?
Katie Atkinson: This one has to go to “Opalite.” Once again using my kids as my own in-house focus group, my third-grader says this is the one his teacher is playing in class when they get to listen to songs on Fun Friday and that all the girls in his class have created a dance to it. I don’t think we need further proof that this is next in line for the radio/TikTok push.
Stephen Daw: While I would normally say that the rollout strategy means more hits are unlikely from this album, I can’t help but look at past Taylor songs like “Cruel Summer” — or even Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” from last year — and think that another massive hit is certainly possible. Just by the numbers on both streaming services and the charts, it seems like fans are signaling their interest in “Opalite” as the follow-up single, which makes sense to me — it’s bubbly, light and fits within the broader landscape of the pop space right now.
Kyle Denis: Right now, I’m leaning towards “Opalite” and “Wood” being Showgirl’s follow-up hits. Regardless, any post-“Ophelia” hit will probably need an attention-grabbing remix and music video to truly get off the ground.
Joe Lynch: “Opalite”! Perfect pop song, begging to be released as a single (and I’m sure it will be). The Sabrina Carpenter-featuring title track certainly seems primed for the single treatment — particularly with a clever, Easter egg-stuffed music video — but my money is on “Opalite,” a sturdy song constructed for repeat listens and the radio, as the next single.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s “Opalite.” If you came to Showgirl for pop bangers — as millions and millions undoubtedly did — this is the breezy brain-sticker for you, for sure. Even with the title.
4. If you were on Taylor Swift’s team, what would you recommend she do in the next couple months to extend the lifespan of Showgirl? Or do you think she’d be better off retreating back to the shadows a little and not continuing to push it with the album?
Katie Atkinson: Retreating to the shadows? No thank you! Taylor doesn’t need to continue her media tour or anything, but I’m looking forward to seeing some of the visuals from The Release Party of a Showgirl theatrical release online or in some other venue and I’m very much hoping we get a strong second single (if not two), à la “Karma” from Midnights or “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” from Tortured Poets. I’m definitely not done with this album cycle, and I’m guessing I’m not alone.
Stephen Daw: Neither Taylor nor her team need my advice. They very clearly understand that the greatest asset Taylor has working for her is the simple fact that she is the most famous person on the planet. Sure, I’ve seen plenty of Taylor-related fatigue creeping its way into the internet discourse around this project, and lots of people (including me) would prefer that Taylor take a beat before rolling out more new content, especially around this album. But the simple fact is that as long as Taylor is able and willing to keep promoting this project, her fans are clearly in the market to keep buying what she is selling. From a purely financial point of view, there is no incentive whatsoever for her to take her foot off the gas.
Kyle Denis: I don’t think she needs to do too much. Showgirl is pretty much guaranteed to stick around the top of the charts through the holiday season. I would spend the next few weeks letting “Ophelia” (and “Opalite,” to a lesser extent) do its thing on radio, enjoy the holidays with my fiancé, and enjoy 2025-26 awards season and the Super Bowl before launching a new single (preferably with a buzzy remix/video, maybe “Actually Romantic?”) around March.
Joe Lynch: I think it’s probably smart to pull back a bit while still making headlines every fortnight or so via a major podcast or TV appearance or music video. She put the pedal to the metal to get to 4.002 million: you don’t want to go from 100mph to slamming on the brakes, but you’re wise to ease up on the gas pedal after demolishing the finish line.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’d be a good call for Taylor to do a couple lower-stakes performances showcasing some of the album’s less-buzzy tracks. Maybe an SNL appearance doing acoustic versions of “Ruin the Friendship” and the Showgirl title track (with recent double-duty-puller Sabrina Carpenter in tow, natch)? She’s talked about the songs plenty at this point, it’d be nice to give those songs a spotlight moment to speak for themselves a little.
5. The Tortured Poets Department reigned for 17 total weeks — do you think Life of a Showgirl’s rule will ultimately be longer or shorter than that?
Katie Atkinson: I don’t see it hitting that astronomical number – not with the holiday music season upon us. But I wouldn’t be surprised by 10ish weeks in the top spot. Anything is possible with Taylor Swift.
Stephen Daw: I think it won’t reign as long. While the album probably has most (if not all) of 2025 locked up at No. 1, part of what helped Tortured Poets achieve its massive streak was the late year release of the album’s Anthology edition in physical copies. Taylor could pull a similar stunt and release a deluxe edition of the album with new songs, but she previously said she does not intend to do that. Based on the sheer volume of variants we have already seen from this album, I tend to doubt there are even more coming.
Kyle Denis: Shorter. I think KPop Demon Hunters will give Taylor a run for her money as holiday shopping gets under way… especially post-Halloween. There are also the very real possibilities of a massive surprise album dropping out of the sky, or the Wicked: For Good soundtrack avenging its predecessor and topping the Billboard 200. And who knows? Maybe Drake really does drop Iceman this year.
Joe Lynch: Shorter. That album had so many more tracks, which fueled The Tortured Poets Department’s chart enjambment. I’m sure Showgirl will dance atop the Billboard 200 again, but it seems unlikely it will enjoy a longer life at No. 1.
Andrew Unterberger: Longer. As I said last week, I’m done betting the under with Taylor Swift.
It’s been a week and a half of celebration for Swifties, following Taylor Swift‘s May 30 announcement of her triumph in buying the masters of her early catalog — six full-length albums and various assorted other releases — back from private equity firm Shamrock Holdings.
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The news that Swift’s back catalog was now entirely hers also came with her revelation that while the superstar singer-songwriter had already finished all of her expected Taylor’s Version re-recording of her 2006 self-titled debut album, the final of her first six albums to be re-recorded — 2017’s Reputation — was still less than a quarter complete. Though the long-anticipated Taylor’s Version of that fan favorite does not appear to be coming anytime soon, all news is good news when it comes to Swift’s streaming fortunes — and indeed, her entire catalog got a boost from the recent headlines, led by Reputation bounding from No. 78 to No. 5 on the Billboard 200 albums chart.
How surprising is that Reputation jump? And what could be the next event to send Swift’s catalog screaming back up the charts? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Taylor Swift’s Reputation rebounds from No. 78 to 5 on this week’s Hot 100, following her announcement that she had reacquired her masters. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you by this chart surge for the album?
Hannah Dailey: I would say 4. It’s not surprising at all to me that Reputation is the album fans immediately flocked to after the acquisition announcement, given how much anticipation there had been for Rep TV over the past few years. But I am a little surprised that it climbed as far as it did, because a 73-spot leap is insane.
Josh Glicksman: At best, a passing “Huh, how about that?” level of surprise, which equates to a 2 or maybe a low 3. Sweeping gains for Taylor Swift at any point, for any reason, should not really floor anyone who has been keeping tabs on the Billboard charts for the past two decades, particularly in the streaming era. Combine her massive announcement with the ever-growing anticipation of Reputation’s rerelease — and the comfort among her fan base to now resume listening to the original album — and a Billboard 200 that is relatively stagnant, and the runway was wide open for this sort of thing.
Jason Lipshutz: A 2. Taylor Swift buying back her masters was enormous news in the pop world, activating a fan base at a rare moment of (relative) downtime for the superstar. Her entire catalog received a streaming surge, but naturally, Reputation received the biggest bump, after years of Swifties waiting for Reputation (Taylor’s Version); that day may never come now, but with Swift regaining ownership of her fiercely beloved 2017 album, the streaming party was on, and Reputation enjoyed a predictably huge rise back into the top 10 of the Billboard 200.
Danielle Pascual: Honestly, 1. Since her first re-recorded album, Fearless (Taylor’s Version), dropped in April 2021, Reputation (Taylor’s Version) seems to have always been what fans have been the most excited for. I vividly remember that before Midnights was announced at the 2022 MTV VMAs, theories flooded Twitter/X about “clowning for rep tv.” And that was two albums (and two Taylor’s Versions) ago! It is one of her most iconic eras, and now that she owns it, it makes total sense to me that her fiercest supporters — who’ve boycotted those first six albums since Taylor posted that original letter in 2019 — have flocked back to it.
Andrew Unterberger: 1. A friend asked on Friday for my prediction of where it would re-chart and I answered “top five,” so.
2. Most of the rest of Swift’s albums catalog also gains this week, with four of her albums even re-entering the Billboard 200. Are any of the movers in her catalog this week unexpected to you for how big (or how small) their gains were?
Hannah Dailey: I guess I’m a little surprised that albums like Midnights (up 75-50) and Folklore (up 69-52) shot up as much as they did, since they’re kind of unrelated to the acquisition news. But I’m definitely surprised that both Speak Nows reentered the chart (No. 170 for the original and No. 185 for the Taylor’s Version), while Fearless and Fearless (Taylor’s Version) did not. If I was going to pick between the two, I would’ve predicted more love for Fearless – though as a Speak Now diehard, I’m happy to see it.
Josh Glicksman: I’m slightly surprised at both the original and rerelease of Speak Now not making a larger splash in their reentries on the Billboard 200, but perhaps that’s rooted in my own internal bias towards the album. Additionally, it’s not shocking that fans are still gravitating toward her more recent album releases — particularly given that her chart movement this week is largely driven by streaming activity — but I would’ve expected some of the original versions of her reacquired catalog to overtake their respective rereleases. (The Taylor’s Version of 1989 still outranks the original, No. 61 to No. 73; Red (Taylor’s Version) is No. 147 while the original is not on the chart.)
Jason Lipshutz: I’m a little surprised by the rises of some of the re-recorded albums, like 1989 (Taylor’s Version) moving up 19 spots to No. 61 and Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) re-entering the chart. The news of the recordings purchase was focused on her six original albums, not the Taylor’s Version full-lengths that she began putting out in 2021… but such is the demand for all things Taylor, where, in a scenario in which those original albums get re-embraced by fans, the re-records still get an uptick in listens, too.
Danielle Pascual: I’m shocked that neither Fearless nor Fearless (Taylor’s Version) are on this week’s chart. The former was the album that won Swift her first album of the year Grammy and kickstarted her rise to megastar status, and the latter marked the beginning of Taylor’s re-recording journey. It contains some of her most popular songs — including her first-ever Hot 100 top 5 hits, “Love Story” and “You Belong With Me” — so I at least expected it to enter the chart in some way. On the other hand, I definitely saw a big chart moment for the original 1989 coming (it re-enters at No. 73). I wouldn’t be the first to admit that the OG “Style” is better than the “Taylor’s Version,” although, 1989 (Taylor’s Version) does contain some excellent From the Vault tracks!
Andrew Unterberger: While my “top five” prediction proved right on for Reputation, my “just outside the top 10” prediction for the self-titled album…. not so much. Taylor Swift did re-enter the Billboard 200, but only at No. 64, which is obviously much lower than I expected. I suppose I overestimated the sentimentality around Swift’s debut — and since we actually still may get that Taylor’s Version at some point, maybe fans are still waiting for that moment to dive back in anyway.
3. While Swift admitted she had not yet gotten through much of the Reputation re-recording at the time of her announcement, she also said the re-recording of her self-titled debut had already been completed. Do you think we’ll see the full release of that Taylor’s Version – and if so, about when?
Hannah Dailey: I get the sense that she’s ready to close the door on all things Taylor’s Version and Eras, especially now that she owns all her work. But since she’s already spent all that time and effort re-recording Debut, there’s no reason not to release it, especially knowing how much fans want it. I bet we’ll get it soon, probably by the end of the year – maybe in October to honor the month it originally dropped.
Josh Glicksman: Yes, but I wouldn’t expect it any time soon unless she needs a push in momentum for some reason, which is rarely, if ever, the case with her. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Taylor’s Version of her self-titled album appear in fragments — rerecorded fan favorites that are webstore exclusives and packaged to new releases or vault tracks that arrive just in time to be considered for awards season. At some point, I think it’ll arrive in full, but it might come in drips first.
Jason Lipshutz: “I really love how it sounds now,” Swift wrote about Taylor Swift (Taylor’s Version) when she announced that she had bought back her masters. If that’s the case, there’s no way it’s never seeing the light of day. Next year for the 20th anniversary would make sense, but if we don’t receive a new studio album in 2025, the already-finished re-recorded debut album would be a lovely consolation prize this year.
Danielle Pascual: I am pretty certain we will see Taylor Swift (Taylor’s Version) sometime next year though, as it would be the perfect way to celebrate her debut album’s 20th anniversary.
Andrew Unterberger: October 24, 2026 — or whenever the closest Friday to that anniversary date is. Mark your calendars now.
4. Swiftie fandom is as such that it feels like almost any major development in Swift’s career (or life) leads to major gains in her catalog. What do you think the next such occasion will be for her that may have a similar bearing on her chart movement?
Hannah Dailey: An obvious answer would be that she announces a new album, but I do reckon we’re probably getting close to TS12. Beyond that, it could be anything. Maybe Travis Kelce will propose, and her love-song canon — from most of Lover to “So High School” and “The Alchemy” on Tortured Poets – will get a major boost.
Josh Glicksman: It’s easy to speculate that a long-anticipated, highly-speculated question from a certain NFL tight end could cause such a gain, but the more likely answer to me here is that’ll it come more naturally when she’s gearing up for another album release, be it of fully new material or one of the remaining Taylor’s Versions. But how fun would it be if we got a new single from Swift out of the blue to celebrate her reacquisition of the catalog? All I’m saying is: The song of the summer season is upon us; it’s not too late, Taylor!
Jason Lipshutz: Maybe a major change in her personal life that would cause a huge spike for “Love Story,” with Swifties posting the lyrics “Go pick out a white dress/ It’s a love story, baby, just say ‘Yes’” into infinity? The world is waiting for Swift and Travis Kelce to make an engagement announcement; who knows if it will happen, or happen anytime soon, but if and when it does, I fully expect every romance-related Swift song to explode on streaming services.
Danielle Pascual: It’s hard to imagine any other moment would kickstart gains as major as this. The back-and-forth of Taylor’s masters has been top of mind for both her and her fans since the drama began six years ago, and now that chapter is finally closed. That being said, if she wanted to continue this momentum for her original albums, I think it would be smart to re-release vinyl editions of the originals, whether as some sort of collector’s set or individually. The Record Store Day editions of albums like 1989 and Red are highly sought after for vinyl-collecting Swifties (they go for upwards of thousands on the resale market), and I’m sure the fans would flock to any sort of special re-issues, therefore triggering new gains on the Billboard 200.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll swipe a prediction from our Charts team’s Trevor Anderson and say that the next big Taylor bump will come when she’s announced as the headliner for a certain February 2026 gig at Levi’s Stadium in California.
5. Since we’re unlikely to get it at this point anyway, what would have been your ultimate dream get for a From the Vault Reputation (Taylor’s Version) track?
Hannah Dailey: Having Charli xcx on a Vault song would’ve been legendary. Charli opened for Taylor on the Reputation Tour, so it would’ve been such a cool full-circle moment to see them reunite for something Reputation-related almost a decade later, especially now that Charli has had so much success with Brat. Charli also could’ve elevated the electro-pop feel Taylor experimented with a lot on the original Rep, and it would’ve been an epic way for both women to put those “Sympathy Is a Knife” feud rumors to bed.
Josh Glicksman: If her latest few singles are any indication, Reneé Rapp feels like she would’ve met the Reputation moment and run with it — so I would’ve loved to get her as an FTV guest collaborator.
Jason Lipshutz: The mash-up between “New Year’s Day,” “Long Live” and “The Architect” is still echoing in my head after seeing it performed at Swift’s final stop on her Eras Tour. I was hoping against hope that we’d get it (or another “New Year’s Day” mash-up) with Reputation (Taylor’s Version), but then again, it’s not so bad that that performance belongs to that singular moment forever.
Danielle Pascual: My number one pick for a collaborator on a From the Vault track is definitely Beyoncé. There were a lot of rumors surrounding a team-up after the two showed up at each other’s concert film premieres at the end of 2023, and it would be awesome to see that come into fruition for a brand new Reputation era track. Beyond that — this is a huge reach, but my dream is for Taylor to re-release Reputation in full as a collab album. I’d want all 15 of the album’s original tracks to have a different feature with only female artists. I can see Doechii doing Kendrick Lamar’s part on “Bad Blood,” Sabrina Carpenter on “Call It What You Want” and Halsey on “Don’t Blame Me.” Also, how full-circle would it be to see Olivia Rodrigo on “New Year’s Day”?! Never say never…
Andrew Unterberger: Many fans might answer this question hoping for a full solo version of “End Game,” without the Future and Ed Sheeran feature appearances. I say go the other way with it: Let’s get a full-on…. well, I don’t think we could ever credibly say “posse cut” about a Taylor Swift-led song, but an extended remix with even more pop star guest verses, anyway. Maybe her Reputation Tour openers Camilla Cabello and/or Charli XCX could’ve added 16 bars? Perhaps they could’ve passed the mic to Florence Welch, a future Tortured Poets supporting player and an obvious influence on some Reputation cuts? And then for the final guest: Would a tell-’em-how-you-feel verse from Justin Timberlake, then undergoing some reputational concerns of his own, have been a great idea or a catastrophic one? Dunno, but I’d certainly be interested to find out the answer.
It’s all been out of the ordinary for Alex Warren since his breakthrough hit started climbing the Billboard Hot 100 in February. Since then, the influencer-turned-singer-songwriter has conquered streaming and sales and gotten closer and closer on radio — to the point that now, he has the No. 1 song in the country.
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“Ordinary” rises to the Hot 100’s apex this week (chart dated June 7), in its 16th frame on the listing — replacing Morgan Wallen’s Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” and making Warren the second artist in 2025 to top the Hot 100 for the first time, after McRae. At the same time, he debuts at No. 32 with “Bloodline,” a teamup with country star Jelly Roll.
How did “Ordinary” end up going all the way? And will be “Bloodline” be following it to the chart’s top tier? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. “Ordinary” reaches the Hot 100’s apex in its 16th week on the chart. Are you surprised it was able to get all the way to the top spot, or did you see this coming for It once it started climbing?
Katie Atkinson: Once it started climbing, No. 1 seemed very possible — having seen some similar trajectories for other big-voiced male ballads in the last year-plus — but while “Lose Control” and “Too Sweet” hit the summit in 2024, “Beautiful Things” never made it, so “Ordinary” wasn’t a lock. And then when it overcame the 13-week run of Kendrick Lamar and SZA’s “Luther” last week only to be kept out of No. 1 by a deluge of new Morgan Wallen songs, it felt like there was a world where it might not happen. So this has to feel extraordinary for Warren that his breakthrough hit muscled through.
Kyle Denis: Once “Ordinary” started climbing, I did think it would reach the top spot, given how stagnant the Hot 100 is right now and the lack of new 2025 releases cementing themselves as bonafide hits. Nonetheless, I’m still a bit surprised that it hit No. 1 because I don’t rate it as one of the more interesting pop songs we’ve gotten this year.
Lyndsey Havens: Shocked! But just momentarily — as I was quickly reminded that this song has been everywhere. I think this song has enjoyed a nice and steady climb, and as the song of summer conversation is just kicking off, it’s possible “Ordinary” snuck in just in time before a new hit, or longer-loved contender, knocks it from the top.
Jason Lisphutz: I’m somewhere in the middle: when “Ordinary” first reached the top 10, I was a little dubious of its longterm prospects, but for about six weeks or so I was convinced that it would eventually take over the top spot. With a pretty staggering global listenership, unflagging U.S. streams and increasing radio buy-in, “Ordinary” has been a multi-platform smash for a while now, and its rise to No. 1 is no chart fluke.
Andrew Unterberger: If you had told me four months ago, I would’ve been pretty surprised — but this is the kind of hit song that, as soon as it reaches a certain escape velocity, feels almost guaranteed to make it all the way to the moon. So once it jumped into the top 40 on the Hot 100 and started to catch on radio, a No. 1 peak felt practically pre-determined.
2. What do you think is the biggest reason why “Ordinary” was able to really break containment and become one of the year’s biggest hits?
Katie Atkinson: While his first-ever awards show performance at last week’s AMAs was perfectly timed with the song’s ascent, I’m going to nod to radio for this one. If you turn on the radio across pop, adult pop and AC right now, you will hear “Ordinary” within the hour. Maybe within a half-hour, really. This song has felt as inescapable as songs come these days, so with its 15% bump across radio last week (plus no major new album releases), that was the final push it needed.
Kyle Denis: “Ordinary” largely operates in the same vocal and guitar-driven pop-rock space that’s housed recent Hot 100 chart-toppers like Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” and Hozier’s “Too Sweet.” With Myles Smith (“Stargazing”), Benson Boone (“Beautiful Things”) and Shaboozey (“Good News”) all earning hits with different takes on the sound, consumers clearly haven’t gotten tired of it yet. Of course, it also helps that TikTok has latched onto the song, with the official “Ordinary” sound playing in over 573,000 posts on the platform.
Lyndsey Havens: Omnipresence. I turn on the TV and “Ordinary” has a major synch. I turn on the radio and “Ordinary” is playing — and if I change the station, it will be on at least one other at the same time. I walk into a store and “Ordinary” is blasting. The song is connecting across every medium, yet Warren and his team aren’t only banking on this one hit: At the same time that he’s enjoying breakout success — with the song topping both the Hot 100 and Billboard Global 200 — the artist also teamed up with Jelly Roll for their collab, “Bloodline,” which is already trailing behind “Ordinary” on the Hot 100.
Jason Lipshutz: A little over a year after Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control” and Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” became inescapable hits — and pretty much remain so today — a market still exists for brash, soulful sing-alongs from full-throated male pop vocalists. Alex Warren likely would have found success with a song as rousing and crowd-pleasing as “Ordinary” regardless of pop trends, but the song certainly hit streaming services at the exact right moment to reach its commercial ceiling.
Andrew Unterberger: America loves us some big-voiced singers and acoustic guitars at the moment! But also, with everything from pop 10 years ago seemingly huge again, a song that splits the difference between Hozier and wedding-ballad Ed Sheeran was probably always going to hit extra hard.
3. At the same time “Ordinary” snags the top spot, Warren’s new Jelly Roll collab “Bloodline” debuts at No. 32 on the Hot 100. Do you think it will grow into another big hit for Warren, or will its momentum get curtailed by how big “Ordinary” still is?
Katie Atkinson: I would not be surprised at all if “Bloodline” — with a jangly sea-shanty melody that is undeniable catnip for AC radio and two newly minted hitmakers at its helm — also climbs to the Hot 100 top 10 over time. That would give Jelly Roll his first hit in the region, which is really the one thing missing from the country star’s meteoric rise to pop culture ubiquity. The virality of both “Ordinary” and Jelly Roll himself could combine for an obvious smash.
Kyle Denis: I think listeners will probably remain focused on “Ordinary” since it’s still relatively fresh, but, as they say, a rising tide lifts all boats!
Lyndsey Havens: I think because you have Jelly Roll on the song, and because the country star is currently on a massive tour with Post Malone, that “Bloodline” could grow into a nice follow-up hit for Warren. But does he need it? No way. If “Bloodline” climbs higher or if it gets curtailed by “Ordinary,” it’s a win for Warren either way.
Jason Lipshutz: Releasing a follow-up single with Jelly Roll was a smart move by Warren, who can now promote both a pop and country track to different audiences without deflating either of their performances. “Bloodline” will likely not become nearly as big as “Ordinary,” but it doesn’t need to — as long as it can expand his listenership and keep his momentum up beyond just one song, the follow-up should be viewed as a success.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t see it reaching the top 10 — maybe not even the top 20 — but I could see it hanging around the Hot 100 for 30 weeks or so and establishing Warren as officially Not a One-Hit Wonder. Which is all he really needs to do.
4. We’ve seen a trend lately of songs that make it to the chart’s top tier – particularly if they had a long journey of climbing that high – lasting in or around the top 10 for a year or longer. Do you see “Ordinary” becoming one of those songs?
Katie Atkinson: Absolutely. Like “Lose Control” before it, this song will not be vacating its spot for months. It just fits too comfortably and too unassumingly in too many spaces to go anywhere anytime soon.
Kyle Denis: Unfortunately, yes. This is the kind of song destined for extended stays on a litany of radio formats, which will help it stick around on the Hot 100 even once it’s reached its sales and streaming peaks.
Lyndsey Havens: Totally. And that’s because of its omnipresence — and the reasons why it’s everywhere. “Ordinary” is the perfect type of hit that’s equal parts catchy, soaring and safe. It sounds just as great soundtracking a Golden Buzzer moment on America’s Got Talent as it does playing from a car radio with the windows rolled down. Its breezy balladry and luck-to-be-in-love lyrics share roots with a song like Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” — and we all know how well that’s worked out.
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. Every piece of empirical and anecdotal evidence suggests that “Ordinary” is not slowing down whatsoever, despite already being on the Hot 100 for months on end. While I could see Warren being supplanted at No. 1 on the chart in the near future, “Ordinary” is acting like the type of song that will still be in the top 10 when the weather starts to turn cold — and possibly for much longer after that.
Andrew Unterberger: Teddy Swims is already looking over his shoulder tbh.
5. Who’s another past or present influencer who you could see scoring a No. 1 hit?
Katie Atkinson: I wouldn’t bet against Addison Rae. Her first album arrives Friday, and while lead single “Diet Pepsi” topped out at No. 54 on the Hot 100, it was a top 10 hit on Pop Airplay, peaking at No. 9 in February. And starting her career making dance videos on TikTok sets her up perfectly for a hypervisual pop career. Plus, only our finest pop stars hail from Louisiana, and Addison was born and raised less than two hours from Britney Spears’ hometown.
Kyle Denis: Addison Rae.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m always rooting for jxdn. But, given the current week, let’s go Addison.
Jason Lipshutz: Does Addison Rae count? Every pop single she’s released to date has been good-to-excellent, and my expectations for her imminent debut album are sky-high. A world in which “Headphones On” grows into a late-breaking No. 1 hit is one I want to inhabit.
Andrew Unterberger: Addison Rae feels like the logical call — but I’ll swerve and say Mr. Beast. No I don’t know of any musical ambitions harbored by the man, but it feels near-certain to me that he’ll be involved with leading an influencer all-star charity single at some point. Would you bet the under on that chart debut? I certainly wouldn’t.
Another new album, another historic week on the charts for Morgan Wallen.
On this week’s Billboard 200 (dated May 31), Wallen’s new album I’m the Problem follows his previous releases Dangerous: The Double Album and One Thing at a Time to a No. 1 debut — this time with a 2025-best 493,000 units moved, according to Luminate, falling just 8,000 short of the 501,000 posted by One Thing upon its 2023 bow. (The latter album, which spent a 2020s-best 19 weeks atop the chart, holds at No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, while Dangerous slides from No. 11-12.)
Meanwhile, it launches 29 new tracks onto the Billboard Hot 100, joining eight returning Wallen Hot 100 hits for a record-setting 37 simultaneous entries on the chart, breaking his own record of 36 from One Thing‘s debut week. The 37 tracks are led by the Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want,” which debuts atop the chart — marking Wallen’s fourth No. 1 on the listing, and McRae’s first.
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How do these incredible numbers compare to our pre-release expectations? And will I’m the Problem end up lasting on the chart the way its predecessors have.
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1. Morgan Wallen’s I’m the Problem debuts at No. 1 with 493,000 units moved – the biggest first-week number of 2025, and just 8,000 off the total One Thing at a Time bowed with two years earlier. Is that number higher, lower or about what you expected?
Elias Leight: That count seems right on target. Streams fell off a little from One Thing at a Time, but sales increased. And Wallen had his best sales week ever on vinyl, with 48,000 copies sold.
Jason Lipshutz: About what I expected. Morgan Wallen’s sky-high popularity with country fans has remained more or less consistent over the past few years, and while none of the singles from I’m the Problem have been as chart-dominant as “Last Night” from One Thing at a Time (yet), he’s still been able to rattle off No. 1 hits in the interim, including “Love Somebody” from the new album. Multiply that maintained success with another sprawling track list, and it’s no surprise that I’m the Problem bowed with a similar stat line to his previous 30-plus-song full-length.
Melinda Newman: It feels downright petty to say I’m surprised it didn’t surpass One Thing at a Time’s opening week — though 8,000 down is a blip when you’re in the half million range. However, Wallen’s star has only continued to ascend, and the huge pop success of “I Had Some Help” with Post Malone for sure introduced him to new fans, which made me think his first week would have been higher.
Jessica Nicholson: That number is slightly lower than what I would have expected, given that the length of this album (just barely) exceeds the length of One Thing at a Time, and this album includes many of the same collaborators, including Eric Church and ERNEST, as its predecessor, in addition to another Post Malone collab.
Andrew Unterberger: Almost exactly what I predicted, maybe a tiny bit higher. The trending of the streaming numbers for Wallen’s latest round of pre-release tracks indicated that he might have been in for a bit of a dip there from One Thing at a Time, which the vinyl release predictably mostly offset anyway. The Morgan Wallen rocket ship may have finally hit its peak, but we still probably have some time before it defintively starts heading back down to earth.
2. All but one of the 37 of the tracks hit the Hot 100 this week, led by the brand new Tate McRae-featuring “What I Want” at No. 1. Does the song sound like the obvious breakout hit of the non-previously-released tracks on the set, or do you think another will ultimately pass it?
Elias Leight: There are a few songs that sound like potential hits: “TN,” co-written by Ashley Gorley, the man with 75 No. 1s on his resume, has stadium singalong ambitions and a strikingly memorable chorus, all staccato state abbreviations and slippery assonance, while “Kick Myself” takes the self-recrimination that courses throughout the album and dresses it up as sunny pop-rock.
That said: On One Thing at a Time, the obvious breakout was not necessarily the massive hit. The title track, which translated late 1970s Fleetwood Mac into commercial country gold, seemed like a slam dunk; it peaked at No. 10 on the Hot 100. Meanwhile, the more muscular country hip-hop hybrid “Last Night” spent 16 weeks at No. 1.
Jason Lipshutz: While “What I Want” isn’t the most immediate song on the I’m the Problem track list, the combined star power of Wallen and McRae is too sizable to deny, or bet against. Wallen has linked up with McRae at the exact right point for maximum commercial gains, considering the hot streak that the ascendant pop star has been on over the past two years; following hits like “Greedy” and “Sports Car,” and by far the biggest album debut of her career with So Close to What, McRae is enjoying a sharp upward trajectory, with plenty of attention paid to any new music. Considering that Wallen’s core fan base remains country listeners, McRae’s appearance on “What I Want” should continue to corral curious pop fans, and power the song to a sustained chart run.
Melinda Newman: In terms of the Hot 100, it felt like the immediate go-to since it paired Wallen with a rising pop star and was his first duet with a woman (which was a goal of his after releasing several duets with male artists). The song feels a little ephemeral and unlikely to best the six weeks “I Had Some Help” spent at No. 1. As far as a song surpassing it, that really depends upon what that the label decides to push at radio. They’ve released some of the top selections already and the Post Malone collaboration on this set, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” doesn’t have the zest of “I Had Some Help” (and has already been released weeks ago to streamers).
Jessica Nicholson: Cross-genre collabs tend to do pretty well in garnering Hot 100 hits and this song has definitely raised its hand as a fan favorite. I feel like this is likely the Hot 100 breakout hit of the non-previously released songs.
Andrew Unterberger: I think its primary competition at the top of the charts in the weeks to come isn’t from any of the other new tracks, but from “Just in Case,” the advance track that still seems to have the most juice among his fans (and for my money is the best of the ITP singles thusfar). It might come down to which radio gloms onto first, though certainly with the built-in pop appeal of “What I Want” — thanks to the presence of another already-minted radio star in McRae — it should have the higher ceiling there.
3. Wallen’s 37 simultaneous entries on the Hot 100 (also including his feature appearance on Post Malone’s 2024 Song of the Summer “I Had Some Help”) breaks a record he had previously set with the One Thing release week. Do you think this will be his last time breaking that record, or do you see his albums getting even bigger in size and/or popularity in the future?
Elias Leight: As big as he is, there are still pockets of listeners who don’t listen to much country and seem to be finding out about him for the first time (several of them appear to be music critics). And in a streaming-happy world, there is nothing preventing Wallen from releasing a 50-track album next time — though the vinyl copies would start to get a little unwieldy. He could put out a call for songs tomorrow and get bombarded with 100 top-shelf demos.
But even if he breaks the record again, at a certain point, the law of diminishing returns kicks in; adding tracks 40 to 45 has a lot less impact than adding tracks 15 to 20. And as Wallen told Theo Von, when writing that many songs, it becomes “hard to not say the same things I’ve said before.” “A lot of things that were successful and easy in the past were just whiskey, drinkin’, all that stuff,” he explained. “I’ve almost explored every angle of that that’s possible.”
Jason Lipshutz: I mean, never bet against Morgan Wallen releasing a hit album with an improbably long track list — maybe the next one has 40 songs, or 50! — but 37 is a LOT OF simultaneous entries on the Hot 100 chart. I’m going to go against conventional wisdom and say that this is a high-water mark that Wallen either won’t try to top, or won’t be able to top, on his next effort, and that no one else will, either; I could see this record standing for quite a while.
Melinda Newman: He’s created a monster of his own doing. His fans have rewarded him for the mega-packages with huge streaming numbers so there’s no real reason to stop now. He’s proven critic-proof and for good reason. Almost every review, including Billboard’s, criticizes the number of tracks and the sheer number tread the same heartbreak road, but our opinion doesn’t mean squat to him (and shouldn’t). On the other hand, he’s set enough records that I’m not sure he needs to keep chasing them, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the next album is less. He could cut back to 15 now and simply say that was how many he was inspired to record, or he could go to 50 and say the same. He’s writing his own rules at this point.
Jessica Nicholson: It is possible that this could be his last time breaking that record, as fans could eventually get fatigued by super-sized albums. However, his most recent albums have been blockbusters and his fans are fervent about any new music he releases, so I could certainly see his next release being as lengthy or even longer.
Andrew Unterberger: I feel like the streaming numbers dipping slightly for this release despite the even-more-packed tracklist means that Wallen and his team have basically taken the volume approach as far as it’ll go. That doesn’t mean that his next album will only be 12 tracks or anything — nobody wants to risk their numbers potentially being cut in half, or worse — but I’d best this arms race he’s been waging with himself over the past couple albums’ tracklists might be coming to an end, at least.
4. If you could have Wallen go further into any particular direction that he explores on I’m the Problem – either musical or thematic – where would you have him go?
Elias Leight: He’s rightly gotten a lot of credit for his easy way with genre hybrids. This savvy blending defines some of his biggest hits, including “Last Night” and “You Proof”; strip the guitar off “Just in Case” and it could be a song for Drake or SZA, while “Miami” would barely need any adjustments to fit onto RapCaviar. But there’s also Wallen’s buoyantly tuneful side, the stuff of “One Thing at a Time” and “Single Than She Was” on the last album and “TN” on this one. On a long album full of romantic vitriol and emotional desolation, songs in this mode provide brief eruptions of uplift — a necessary counterbalance.
Jason Lipshutz: Regardless of style or quality, any 37-song album is going to feel less focused than a full-length with a more traditional track list. I would love for Wallen to try and make his next project a 10-track affair — whittling down his collection to his strongest material, and presenting his most cohesive artistic statement. Wallen has conquered his genre with these sprawling, stream-happy albums, but such a move could prioritize creative growth in a bold new way.
Melinda Newman: The songs that are the most compelling on the album are the ones where he gets away from woe-is-me love songs (though he’s got that down) and looks at the world around him like “Working Man’s Song.” Hands down, the best song on the album is album closer “I’m a Little Crazy,” where he — like most of us — feels burdened by the insanity he sees around him, and yet is unable to look away. The world-weary tone of his vocals suits the song’s message perfectly and he manages to record and issue-oriented song without taking a political stand, which is not an easy feat these days.
Jessica Nicholson: At least one song on the album, “Working Man’s Song,” finds Wallen digging into twangy Southern rock territory and lets him display a gravelly side to his voice that we don’t often hear. Also, songs such as “Jack and Jill” are a departure from the heavy string of heartbreak songs on this album, and it would be nice to hear him continue delving into other such topics.
Andrew Unterberger: In my opinion, the most consistently engaging Wallen material always comes when he takes a real hard look at himself — not in the sense where he allows that he occasionally drinks too much and behaves poorly in relationships, but in the sense where he acknowledges that his fundamental impulses are self-destructive in a way that he legitimately doesn’t know if he can (or would) get away from. “Kick Myself” is the perfect example from this album, and perhaps the best song on here; I wish he returned to the subject as often as he returns to whiskey and romantic toxicity.
5. As I’m the Problem debuts, One Thing at a Time remains in the Billboard 200’s top five, and even 2021’s Dangerous: The Double Album is just outside the top 10. By the time of Wallen’s next album, do you expect I’m the Problem will have shown similar chart endurance?
Elias Leight: Dangerous: The Double Album is the top Billboard 200 album of the 21st century, while One Thing at a Time broke Garth Brooks’ record for most weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 for a country album. Both those releases spent at least 100 weeks in the top 10, making Wallen the first artist to ever accomplish that feat. Barring a comet hitting the earth or a zombie apocalypse, I’m the Problem will be in circulation for a long time.
Jason Lipshutz: Sure. What evidence is there to doubt him? Over the past half-decade, Wallen’s superpower has been his ability to release albums that linger around the top of the Billboard 200 for years and years, in a way that has become singular in its might. I’m the Problem could be more or less potent than his previous albums, depending on who you ask — but its one inarguable commercial quality is that it will be on the charts for a long, long time.
Melinda Newman: Yes. He’d already had three No. 1s on Country Airplay with songs from the set before its release and the one thing we’ve learned is there seems to be no burn-out on Wallen’s music with his fans. They soak up whatever he is putting out and can’t seem to get enough. There are several more songs that are sure to be released to radio which will bring in casual fans who haven’t already worn a hole in the album yet. His music wears well and it wouldn’t surprise me if two years from now when we have a new Wallen album that he has two or three albums still in the top 15.
Jessica Nicholson: It likely will. There are already some sharp fan-favorites on this album, like “Just in Case,” “Love Somebody” the Eric Church collab “Number 3 and Number 7” and the McRae duet. With his upcoming tour dates sure to feature many songs on this project, it will give fans even more reason to keep streaming its many songs.
Andrew Unterberger: I expect its endurance relative to One Thing will be like its first week numbers — maybe not quite as potent, but close enough you’d have to really squint to see much of a difference.
Before this month, no hard rock act had topped the Billboard 200 albums chart in nearly a half-decade. Now, two have done it in three weeks.
Two weeks ago, Ghost nabbed the chart’s top spot with its Skeletá set, and this week (on the chart dated May 25), Sleep Token claims pole position for the first time with its new album Even in Arcadia. The album bows with 127,000 units, according to Luminate — with over 50,000 each in sales and streaming equivalent albums — while all 10 of its tracks appear on this week’s Billboard Hot 100, albeit in the chart’s lower half.
How did Sleep Token end up netting such explosive first-week numbers? And what does it mean for the mainstream embrace of hard rock in general? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Sleep Token’s Even in Arcadia debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week with 127,000 units – its first No. 1 on the chart. Is that performance better, worse or about what you would’ve expected from it?
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Eric Renner Brown: Frankly, any rock album – broadly defined – topping the Billboard 200 in 2025 surprises me; that Sleep Token managed to do 62% and 72% of Bad Bunny and Tate McRae’s respective first-week units from earlier this year is something the anonymous band should be proud of. But the fact that it was Sleep Token that slipped through in a somewhat quiet week on the chart tracks: This type of loud, rap-inflected rock music is what’s broken through to the mainstream most effectively in recent years.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: This is about what I would have expected from them. Their buzz was incredibly strong before they even began to roll out Arcadia. Their last album Take Me Back to Eden hit No. 16 on the Billboard 200 back in 2023, which was very surprising considering all eyes were on Hip-Hop for its 50th birthday. Not to mention, all three of Arcadia’s advance tracks hit the Hot 100 heading into its release. You throw in dozens TikTok conspiracy theories surrounding the band’s lore, and yep, I think fans were really eager to dive into this album.
Kyle Denis: Definitely better. My Billboard 200 expectations for non-legacy hard rock bands in the 2020s are basically in the basement.
Jason Lipshutz: Better. The performance of the singles leading up to Even in Arcadia, combined with upcoming sold-out arena dates and the band’s new partnership with RCA Records, suggested a career-best bow for Sleep Token — but a six-figure, No. 1 bow for a hard rock act is increasingly rare, especially for a band that’s not a decades-running brand name like Metallica or Tool. Even the most bullish Sleep Token fans couldn’t have foreseen a debut with 127,000 equivalent album units, considering that it’s a number without much recent precedent.
Andrew Unterberger: I’m surprised by how not surprised I am. Sleep Token is exactly the sort of cult rock act who sells well with its devoted fanbase, and now that it’s also become the sort of act who debuts on the Hot 100 with all three of your album’s advance tracks — and not just in the 80s or 90s, but as high as No. 34 (with “Caramel”) — clearly its streaming prowess is quite considerable as well. I might’ve guessed a little lower for its final first-week tally, but I would have guessed six digits. And that’s pretty wild for a rock band in 2025.
2. One of the more notable things about Arcadia’s first-week performance – particularly as far as rock albums go — is its relatively even split in terms of sales and streams: 73,500 in sales and 53,000 streaming equivalent album units. Which of those two numbers is more significant, do you think?
Eric Renner Brown: The streaming figure is more significant to me, because it demonstrates that the album’s popularity extends beyond diehards who might have already been committed to buying it. With such a high streaming number, Even In Arcadia was likely making its way to plenty of new Sleep Token listeners – and resonating enough with existing ones that they were returning to it after release.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: The sales number is definitely telling in regards to the chokehold Sleep Token lore has on the group’s supporters. Fans have been dissecting their lyrics and digging for easter eggs for months now, and it’s become less about trying to learn the band’s identity and more about engaging in the world Sleep Token is building. I think fans thought they’d learn more info if they bought physical copies of the record, which may or may not be true! Either way, it translates to a great sales week for them.
Kyle Denis: Arcadia pulling in 53,000 streaming equivalent album units during its first week is very impressive. Rock has had some difficulty finding its footing as the industry transitioned into the streaming era, and you really wouldn’t need more than two hands to count the amount of new rock bands that have broken through on a mainstream, Billboard chart-topping level in recent years. I think a hard rock band pulling these streaming figures – with just one career top 40 hit! — bodes well for not only their longevity, but also the general health of the genre in the streaming era.
Jason Lipshutz: The sales figure. Seeing multiple Arcadia tracks on daily streaming charts during the week following the album release was impressive, but the fact that the album moved that many copies right off the bat illustrates just how huge of a fan base Sleep Token has developed, and how hungry they were for another chapter in their story. Plenty of arena-level acts have struggled to get their fans invested in new material, but the Arcadia sales figure suggests that Sleep Token’s devoted listenership has not plateaued whatsoever.
Andrew Unterberger: The streams are certainly more newsworthy, but the sales are arguably more significant for the band itself. Once you become a band that can move physical units like that — and even without a single stream, Arcadia still would’ve sold enough for it to top the Billboard 200 this week — you’re basically golden; that fanbase investment is rock-solid enough that you’ll probably never be depending on living hit-to-hit again.
3. Also unusual for an album by a rock band: Arcadia notches all 10 of its tracks on the Hot 100 (though all in the chart’s bottom half). Do you think there’s a song that could endure as a lasting breakout hit, or is it mostly about the full album with Sleep Token?
Eric Renner Brown: Songs like “Look To Windward” and “Infinite Baths” are simply too long to have much crossover appeal on their own, outside of the album. But shorter tracks like “Past Self” are rhythmic earworms that call to mind Twenty One Pilots’ biggest hits – and could have similar breakout potential.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: A Sleep Token record as a whole is definitely more appealing to its core fans, but it’s clear this time around there are certain songs geared more heavily for general consumption. “Caramel,” “Past Self,” “Provider,” are all ready to conquer the algorithms, which is just what happens when you have a machine like RCA pushing your album. We’ll likely start to hear these songs outside more and more, but only time will tell if the general public goes for it.
Kyle Denis: I think it’s probably mostly about the full album, but I think both “Caramel” and “Damocles” could stick around longer than most expect. Both tracks offer fans who may traditionally fall outside of hard rock circles and easy entry point into Sleep Token’s genre-fusing world.
Jason Lipshutz: I loved how “Emergence” set the table for the rest of the album campaign as the first song released from Arcadia, but its follow-up, “Caramel,” is the single that has the best shot at enduring. Its summery beat and pop hooks are primed to reach a mainstream audience, and its twisting structure and intense second half make sure that the song doesn’t betray the band’s core appeal. Is a Sleep Token track really in the song of the summer race? You better believe it.
Andrew Unterberger: “Caramel” feels like the band’s greatest proof-of-concept single on the set, though it is interesting to me to see “Emergence” crack the top five on Rock & Alternative Airplay — it doesn’t strike me as a radio song, but neither does anything on this set, really. Still, that may say more about the popularity of the band overall rather than of the song itself.
4. A lot of people are probably hearing Sleep Token’s name for the first time and fumbling over the band’s now-undeniable popularity – in one sentence, how would you describe the root of its appeal/success to the uninitiated?
Eric Renner Brown: Rock might not be the mainstream cultural driver it once was, but there’s still a certain romance to heavy, high-concept rock music – and new generations want to find their own purveyors of that, rather than settling for the big arena-rock acts of yesteryear.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: They don’t have restrictions on what can and can’t be in metal, and that’s ultimately cool even if it doesn’t always work.
Kyle Denis: An English hard rock band that incorporates genres like reggaetón and pop and anonymizes themselves with different masks for each album rode a combination of natural momentum and social media virality to international stardom.
Jason Lipshutz: Sleep Token combines old-school metalcore theatrics, modern fantasy-world mythmaking and forward-thinking breakdowns that can be turned up in a car stereos or chopped up into TikTok clips.
Andrew Unterberger: As with the steadily growing popularity of Ghost, modern audiences love a metal band that can generate a little mystery and drama to its world-building — and as with the recent resurgence for the Deftones, those same audiences also love a metal band who seems tuned into the existence of other musical genres (and of sex).
5. Between Ghost and Sleep Token, hard rock albums have now claimed the No. 1 spot in two of the last three weeks – and neither from legacy acts, but rather from bands who are still ascending. Does this feel like a particularly important and significant moment for rock music on the Billboard charts, or is it more just a coincidence of timing?
Eric Renner Brown: Ghost and Sleep Token’s success on the chart ultimately feels like a coincidence, given the relative lull in major new releases – after all, since April, two Billboard 200 toppers have been deluxe reissues of previously released albums, and one (Bad Bunny) was a re-entry of an album that last topped the chart in early February. But at the same time, these albums indicate that hard rock is doing much better commercially than many give it credit for. Both bands are headed out on high-selling arena tours in the coming months, and hard-rock festivals like Ohio’s Sonic Temple and Florida’s Welcome To Rockville, which this year were headlined by the likes of Disturbed, Slipknot, Shinedown and Korn, are reliably huge affairs.
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: A little of both. Both Ghost and Sleep Token emerged as No. 1’s on relatively slow weeks, and there’s no denying that the latter will be washed away from the charts next week now that Morgan Wallen’s back outside. Still, I think it shows overall a renewed appetite for theatrical rock music, especially among younger listeners. To call it a full blown “resurgence” I think is a stretch, but it is nice to see there remains an appetite for a genre that the mainstream public deemed to be “dead” years ago.
Kyle Denis: I think the release dates are probably a coincidence of timing, but the fact that 2025 has had two Billboard 200-topping hard rock albums before the year’s midpoint is definitely significant. Especially since these aren’t legacy acts and – at least in Sleep Token’s case – they’re also landing several songs on the Hot 100 pre- and post-album release. Maybe the success of these albums indicates a forthcoming reversal of the current trend of groups and bands disappearing from the Hot 100. Even if Arcadia doesn’t spin out a massive crossover hit, its streaming success is already indicative of a new era for hard rock on that consumption format – and that’s certainly a win.
Jason Lipshutz: The timing is coincidental, but the hard rock world has been starving for new superstars for years, and bands like Sleep Token and Ghost are filling the void. Both bands abide by long-held rules of the metal scene while also gesturing toward pop fans with their melodies; the mystique surrounding both groups has also gradually built, and invited new fans year after year. The respective performances of their new albums on the Billboard 200 showcases how these bands have real selling power, and should be taken more seriously as commercial entities moving forward.
Andrew Unterberger: Coincidental, but still meaningful. These two bands who happened to be releasing albums weeks apart might have been the only two bands who you’d expect to combine for such a moment in 2025 — but that’s still two more than you would’ve expected to be capable of it five years ago.
It’s been four years since a hard rock band topped the Billboard 200 albums chart — and far longer since such a band did so without having decades of hits already to its name. But this week, Ghost puts an end to both of those droughts.
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The Swedish rock band, with its anonymous lineup and masked on-stage appearance, has grown its devoted cult of fans for over 15 years now, coming ever closer to the top spot on the Billboard 200 with their first five album releases. Now, the group has finally captured its first No. 1, with sixth album Skeletá bowing at pole position, moving 86,000 first-week units, according to Luminate (with the majority coming in physical sales).
How did the group get over the top on the Billboard 200? And which band could be next? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Ghost’s Skeletá becomes the band’s first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 with 86,000 units moved. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are we by that first-week performance?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: It’s around a 9 or 10 for me. 86,000 units for a ROCK record in 2025 is an unbelievable accomplishment, especially when the band is this gothic and relatively niche. Don’t get me wrong, Ghost’s following has been strong and steady for years now, but I don’t think anyone anticipated their supporters to be this die-hard this many years later. The group has been cranking out records consistently since 2010, so they’re by no means a buzzing new band, nor do they have any sort of obvious mainstream pop culture support. This album is kinda just business-as-usual for them, making the No. 1 debut that much more impressive.
Lyndsey Havens: 8. Ghost has been around for almost 20 years, having formed in 2006 and released its debut album in 2010. And Skeletá is its sixth album. That’s not to say the group hasn’t had incredible success across that timeline, but to debut atop the all-genre albums chart is indeed impressive — and yes, a bit of a shock. But it’s important to look at the circumstances, too; Skeletá is the only debut in the top 10 of this week’s Billboard 200 chart, meaning it wasn’t a particularly crowded week for new releases. Even so, 86,000 units moved isn’t nothing — and I think this No. 1 debut is an important reminder of the ironically quiet yet sturdy interest in hard rock.
Elias Leight: 7 — the band did hit No. 2 in the past, and it helped that Ghost released Skeletá during a quiet chart week. Still, it’s always surprising when a group with so few streams tops the Billboard 200.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 6? I’d go higher if I didn’t already know anything about the band’s chart trajectory — and certainly 86,000 units is an eye-opening first-week number — but I can’t really deem it that shocking when a band goes to No. 8 with one album, then No. 3 with the album after that, then No. 2 with the album after that… then No. 1 with the album after that. Not that every band follows such a linear trajectory, but Ghost certainly has to this point.
Christine Werthman: I registered a 3 on the surprise scale, once I knew that their fans love vinyl and the band offered over a dozen vinyl variants of the new album, and that the last album went to No. 2. Traditional album sales accounted for 89 percent of Skeletá’s first-week numbers — and this tracks with the Billboard interview from 2022 after Impera’s big year, where the band’s marketing lead discussed how vinyl was a huge part of Ghost’s strategy. The surprise level is pretty low, considering the band just implemented a strategy it knew to be successful and was already on the right track with the last album. And the competition for the week wasn’t too stiff.
2. While Skeletá is the band’s first No. 1 album, they’d been getting closer with each successive album, and even scored a No. 2 album earlier this decade with 2022’s Impera. Is this album being the one to put them over the top more about the album itself or more a matter of the band’s overall momentum?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: In a way, I think it’s both. Skeleta is definitely one of their better, more cohesive records in recent years, but let’s just address the elephant in the room here: There is clearly a growing, reinvigorated interest in masked and disguised rock bands. Sleep Token is arguably the biggest band in the world right now, and they’ve experienced a very similar upward trajectory this decade. Those guys have a very strong chance of debuting at No. 1 two weeks from now, following the release of new album Even in Arcadia this Friday (May 9), which even just five years ago would have been unheard of. Skeleta’s debut I think has to do more with cultural momentum. There’s a strong gravitational pull young music fans are having towards dark and enigmatic rockers. Not to mention they rock hard, too.
Lyndsey Havens: I think it’s both. I actually love to see a trajectory like this, where you can trace a steady incline year over year — across many years. But it does take those two ingredients to get there: great music and an equally great fanbase. Ghost has always had both, with the latter being a tight-knight community that plays into the band’s heavily costumed on-stage presence (with the members being known as a clergy of “Nameless Ghouls” led by frontman Tobias Forge). With this new milestone, I’m curious to see where the band goes from here.
Elias Leight: Ghost’s timing was key. In February and March, stars like Bad Bunny, the Weeknd, PartyNextDoor and Drake, Lady Gaga, and Playboi Carti stormed to No. 1 with new releases. In the three most recent tracking weeks, however, the top album has not earned more than 65,000 album-equivalent units: Ken Carson, who hit No. 1 with More Chaos, managed to summit the chart with the smallest weekly total in three years (a number then lowered by SZA’s SOS in its return to the top spot the following week).
At the same time, Ghost’s audience has grown with each recent album. The band jumped from a No. 8 debut in 2015 to No. 3 in 2018, more than doubling its first-week total in the process. Four years later, when Ghost reached No. 2 with Impera, the group’s first-week numbers didn’t move much. The band found a strategy to boost numbers again with Skeletá. Combined with a week when no stars were releasing new albums, this put Ghost over the top.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s the momentum. Skeletá is a fine album but hardly a game-changer; if you know Ghost already you have a pretty good idea of what to expect from it. It’s more that a whole lot more people know who Ghost are now than did five or 10 years ago.
Christine Werthman: Ghost didn’t reinvent the wheel on this one compared to the others, so I’d chalk it up to the momentum. A loyal following led the Swedish hard rockers to the top.
3. While Ghost has scored a handful of Mainstream Rock Airplay No. 1s and even a minor crossover success with the belatedly viral “Mary on a Cross” in 2022, this new set has yet to spawn a big hit, with “Satanized” its only advance song to even crack an airplay top 10. Do you think a hit single will emerge from Skeletá – and does it particularly matter for the band at this point?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I don’t think it matters. The evidence of their growing popularity album-wise proves that point. Even at their earlier peaks, it felt that Ghost scored hit singles almost accidentally. They’ve never catered to radio or any sort of mainstream acceptance, that’s what makes ‘em so epic and cool. So if a hit song does emerge, it’ll just be out of fan-wide love of the song, not because of any major push from them.
Lyndsey Havens: No, I don’t think it matters. And honestly, I think for a band like Ghost — and this deep into a career — having a full LP hit No. 1 versus a single would mean more to me. That’s not to say it’s too late for a hit from the album to emerge, but is it necessary? I think not.
Elias Leight: This band has excelled at getting fans to buy albums — 61,000 copies of Prequelle, 62,500 of Impera, and now 77,000 of Skeletá — which makes it less dependent on U.S. hits. The success of “Mary on a Cross” presumably helped Ghost reach some new listeners. But even so, the band’s first-week stream count didn’t budge much: 9.11 million on-demand streams of Impera songs compared to 12.45 million of Skeletá songs.
Andrew Unterberger: Never hurts to have a breakout hit, certainly — and this set could have one, but if it does, it will probably pop off unpredictably, like “Mary” did three years ago. But obviously a consistent sales-drawing power means that you’re not dependent on them from album to album, which is the point that all popular performing artists — not just rock bands — should hope to get to in their careers.
Christine Werthman: “Lachryma” has some higher streaming numbers in its favor right now, but I also feel like “Umbra” might be a sleeper hit. It really builds, has a righteous instrumental break, and it could stir some controversy, with its seemingly religious references to “the chosen one” and “the shadow of the Nazarene.” All hail the blasphemers? Maybe, though it’s not as spicy as “Mary on a Cross.” It doesn’t totally matter though, as it seems like Ghost’s fanbase is in it for the long haul already.
4. Given that it’s one of the few hard rock bands of a relatively recent vintage to accumulate a devoted enough audience to top the Billboard 200, what lessons do you think other bands might be able to learn from Ghost’s recent chart success?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: Being authentic, unique and weird will always be cool. There will always be an appetite for it, and that appetite will translate to success if you just give it time. A lot of young bands cater to the algorithm right off the bat, you can hear it in the way they record and promote their albums. Ghost has always been Ghost, they’ve never swayed from that, which is why their fans have stuck by them. Do what creatively liberates you, don’t cater to the data!
Lyndsey Havens: To keep doing what you’re doing. You make music that you love and believe in? Great. You built a fanbase that’s willing to dress up for you at shows? Amazing. You’ve slowly over time played to bigger audiences across the world? Wow! All of these measurements of success, I believe, are what got Ghost to this point — and I haven’t even gotten to their Grammy win (best metal performance for “Cirice” in 2016). Over time, Ghost has created a world for itself and its fans to live in, and a No. 1 album is just proof of concept.
Elias Leight: Ghost employed a strategy initially popularized by K-Pop groups, releasing more than 20 variants of Skeletá across vinyl — including a limited run of 6,000 LPs with three different sets of “mystery” artwork — CD, and cassette. If a band already has an audience that likes to collect physical copies, releasing multiple variants has proven to be a reliable way to increase sales. Ghost fans snapped up 44,000 LPs across the various iterations of Skeletá, giving the band the third-largest vinyl sales week for any rock album in the modern era.
Andrew Unterberger: Embrace theatrics and spectacle! Over the past 30-plus years in rock music, it’s became increasingly normalized for rock bands to be no-frills in nature — but the pool of music fans who default to rock bands is pretty shallow these days, and it’s hard to draw in modern pop audiences while presenting yourselves so statically. If you want to reach Ghost’s commercial strata, you gotta give ’em a little more flair, a little more drama.
Christine Werthman: Don’t worry too much about chasing crossover hits, and find a marketing plan that works and follow it. Ghost didn’t revamp its style to get to No. 1 for the first time. The band just doubled down and gave its fanbase what it wanted — more ripping hard rock and more vinyl for the collection. Sticking to the script doesn’t work for every band, but Ghost identified its strengths and stuck with it. And remember: This is the group’s sixth studio album. Stick with it!
5. What’s another rock band that you could see topping the Billboard 200 for the first time in the near future?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: Mark my words: Sleep Token will go number one next week.
Lyndsey Havens: Our colleague Jason Lipshutz put me on to Spiritbox, and I think they are well on their way to a Billboard 200 No. 1. It would be a much quicker rise than Ghost, but I think the groundwork has been laid — and with Ghost delivering the first hard rock album to top the tally in over four years, I wouldn’t be surprised if the wait for it to happen again is significantly shorter.
Elias Leight: Falling in Reverse hit No. 12 — their highest position ever — with Popular Monster in 2024. Five Finger Death Punch have eight top 10 albums and have peaked at No. 2 on three separate occasions.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s Sleep Token, and it’s this month. But keep an eye out for The Marías, too — that group’s time might be coming sooner than you think, too.
Christine Werthman: Turnstile!
The last time Morgan Wallen and Post Malone joined forces on record, it was for “I Had Some Help” — which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, spent six weeks atop the chart, and was ultimately named Billboard‘s Song of the Summer for 2024. So when news came that the two were reuniting for a new single, expectations were understandably high.
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That new single, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” dropped two Fridays ago (Apr. 18) — just before Easter weekend, which made for good timing with the song’s “There’s a lot of reasons I ain’t Jesus, but the main one is that I ain’t comin’ back” hook. This week, the song debuts at No. 8 on the Hot 100: a strong entrance, but somewhat below the bar set by duo’s previous collaboration.
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How should Morgan Wallen and Post Malone feel about their new song’s initial performance? And will it still grow into a “Help”-sized smash? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” debuts at No. 8 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that spot lower, higher, or about where you would have expected it to debut?
Katie Atkinson: I think that’s exactly where I would have expected. While their last team-up “I Had Some Help” debuted atop the chart, it also had a megawatt live debut at 2024 Stagecoach setting it up for success and was a lot more upbeat. This new one is still catchy but has a sleepier tempo. I think a top 10 debut for a midtempo country jam chock-full of Christian imagery is pretty impressive – especially given it’s the fifth song preceding Wallen’s next album.
Kyle Denis: Maybe a little bit lower. “I Had Some Help” was such a massive No. 1 debut that I expected at least a top five entry for the new duet. Nonetheless, “Comin’ Back” isn’t as immediately catchy as “Help,” it doesn’t have the glow of being the lead single from Post Malone’s big country pivot and Morgan already has so many other songs circulating – including one directly above “Comin’” (“I’m the Problem,” No. 7).
Jason Lipshutz: About where I expected. “I Had Some Help” is the obvious analog, and while last year’s smash debuted at No. 1, that song possessed the glow of being Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s first collaboration, and arrived as Wallen’s first single following his 2023 album One Thing at a Time. “I Ain’t Coming Back” has been preceded by a steady stream of music from both Wallen and Post, which likely blunted some of the immediate excitement around its release — but still, these are two brand-name chart titans, so a top 10 debut seemed all but guaranteed.
Jessica Nicholson: It debuts around where I thought it would. “I Had Some Help” was aided by the buzz of curiosity surrounding not only Post Malone releasing a straight-ahead country album, but also regarding just what a collab between a genre-fluid artist like Post Malone and one of country music’s top-echelon artists would sound like. This time around, fans are more familiar with a Posty-Wallen collab. On the Hot 100, the song is also battling against releases from Kendrick Lamar with SZA, Alex Warren’s hit “Ordinary” and even Wallen’s own title track to his upcoming album.
Andrew Unterberger: Definitely lower. It’s not surprising that it didn’t quite match “I Had Some Help,” but only because that song was an absolute monster right out of the gate, zooming past one of the most packed periods of pop music in recent memory and reigning for six weeks. But this song couldn’t even lap Morgan Wallen’s own “I’m the Problem,” which is hardly the most explosive Wallen hit in recent memory. With that history and the two artists’ combined star power — not to mention its slick sound, big chorus and the built-in Easter tie-in — it’s a slightly underwhelming bow for the duo, for sure.
2. “I Had Some Help,” the previous teamup of Wallen and Post, ended up spending six weeks at No. 1 and topping Billboard’s Songs of the Summer chart. Do you think this song has a chance of growing into a hit near that size, or will it be diminishing returns on the sequel?
Katie Atkinson: Diminishing returns, only because this one just doesn’t have the Song of the Summer potential of “Help.” This is a reliably great Morgan Wallen song, but it’s not the backyard-BBQ-soundtracking party-starter of last summer’s smash-hit duet. If I’m going to listen to some melancholy Morgan, right now I’ve got “Just in Case” on repeat instead.
Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to say the sequel won’t be as big as “Help,” for all the reasons I listed in my previous answer. It really helped that “Help” got so much room to be the primary song for consumers to focus on from both artists. With six songs already circulating from a 37-track album that’s due in a few weeks, there might just be a little bit too much Wallen in the air.
Jason Lipshutz: I think everybody involved would be totally fine with slightly diminished returns for one of the biggest hits of last year. “I Had Some Help” caught lightning in a bottle, as an immediate and immensely enjoyable sing-along that crystallized Posty’s newfound foray into country music. “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” follows a similar formula but with a slightly less catchy hook, and it’s been delivered a few months after we’ve received a full Post Malone country album and at a time where we’ve gotten a new Wallen single every few weeks. The circumstances of “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” will blunt its commercial impact to some degree, but as a sequel to a singular hit, it’s pretty clearly a success already.
Jessica Nicholson: “I Had Some Help” had an instantly catchy groove, and the kind of post-breakup, pushback defiance fans love to hear in a breakup song. “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” shares much of that defiance, but in a slightly quieter, less-summertime-vibe way. It will be difficult to surpass the chart domination of “I Had Some Help,” especially given that “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” didn’t debut at No. 1 as its predecessor did, but fans have proven they are clamoring for any new music from Wallen, and that they loved Post’s country foray. Plus, with both Post Malone and Morgan Wallen being on the road this summer, that will keep the fans hearing this song through the summer months (assuming it makes it into their respective setlists), so it is possible that the song could gain greater strength.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t be surprised if it grows a little from here — radio’s gonna sink its teeth all the way into this thing, and the warm-weather months will undoubtedly be kind to it — but it seems pretty unlikely that it’ll grow into “I Had Some More Help.” (Particularly with all the competition it has from other recent Wallen releases, an already-crowded field which is about to quintuple in size with the release of the full I’m the Problem.) And that’s fine. Most sequels don’t quite live up their originals.
3. Wallen has released a steady stream of new songs in the run-up to his upcoming I’m the Problem album. Do you think this strategy is proving effective for promoting the new set, or is the volume getting to be too much?
Katie Atkinson: Considering it’s his record-extending fifth top 10 on the Hot 100 preceding the new album, I’d say he’s on to something. Not to mention, there are 37 songs on the standard release of I’m the Problem, so it’s not like he’s giving the whole album away ahead of time. Releasing seven total advance tracks out of 37 is like putting out two or three singles from a 13-track album, percentage-wise.
Kyle Denis: Part of me feels like it’s getting to be too much – and I think that’s evidenced by “Comin’” debuting lower than all five I’m the Problem singles that preceded it, despite being the only one to feature another artist. He could do with letting the singles breathe for a bit, especially with so much more music coming in such a short span of time.
Jason Lipshutz: It depends on what the goal is, right? If Wallen is aiming for another long-lasting No. 1 smash along the lines of “Last Night” or “I Had Some Help,” then this deluge of new singles has not been as effective as releasing one focus track and placing the country superstar’s entire weight behind it. Yet if the mission is to make Wallen even more ubiquitous — constantly near the top of New Music Friday, always with multiple songs lingering around the top of the Hot 100, with plenty of headlines and new fodder for country radio — then this rollout has largely been a win for him. And considering that his new 37-song album arrives in a few weeks, this current moment might just be the tip of the iceberg.
Jessica Nicholson: Given today’s more-is-more streaming environment, it feels like an effective strategy. Morgan’s album will encompass 37 songs, so releasing seven of those songs (so far) amounts to approximately 19% of those songs being released ahead of time, so there will still be plenty of new music to dig into the moment the full album releases.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a good short-term strategy that I do worry will have deleterious long-term effects. Undoubtedly this will all lead to a mighty first-week bow for I’m the Problem, and will confirm Wallen as the most dominant, ubiquitous country star of his generation — but it does feel like, after five years of near-continuous rising, the excitement with him as an artist and hitmaker is beginning to level off. But even in a worst-case scenario for him, it’ll be a while before it starts to really recede, and he’ll probably break a bunch more charts records in the meantime.
4. Post Malone has revealed that a second country album is in the works. Are you optimistic that the album will be able to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, or would he have been better off leaving his country detour as a one-and-done?
Katie Atkinson: I’m very optimistic. I’m looking forward to what Posty can do standing on his own two feet, without 15 duets pairing him up with the biggest names in country on this one. If the F-1-ending solo highlight “Yours” — which finds Post sweetly singing about his daughter’s future husband — is any indication, he could have a seriously long future in this genre. Might be time for Posty to check out some real estate in Nashville.
Kyle Denis: I think Post has definitely been embraced by country listeners, and he’ll continue to strengthen that base with his just-launched Big Ass Stadium Tour. I think without novelty on his side, it will be a bit harder to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, but it’s not entirely impossible. I think there’s a path for the album to be a success in its own right if he focuses on solo singles this time around.
Jason Lipshutz: F-1 Trillion was such a profound success that I’m not surprised that Posty is hitching a ride back to Nashville for its follow-up. Country sounded like a natural fit for an artist who broke through in the hip-hop world, and considering how often those sounds are intermingling on the charts these days, the transition hasn’t sounded as forced as it might have during a different musical era. I don’t think there’s any chance that Post Malone remains a country artist for the rest of his career, but right now, he’s in a good groove, and he should continue exploring.
Jessica Nicholson: It would be hard to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, unless he makes the next project as collaboration-heavy as F-1 Trillion, as teaming with so many country stars, and getting that co-sign from them, brought in fans of all of those artists. However, critically, many of his solo songs on his extended “Long Bed” version of the album were as good as his collaborative efforts, so it would be a chance to prove his status as a solo country hitmaker. That said, if the goal is entrenching himself into the country genre as an artist who is in it for the long haul, then consistently releasing country projects is an obvious essential step in accomplishing that aim, regardless of whether a new album reaches the all-genre chart pinnacle.
Andrew Unterberger: My guess would be that Post’s F-2 Trillion-type album ends up analogous to mgk’s second pop-punk set Mainstream Sellout — a chart-topping hit that generally does fine, but doesn’t quite generate the hits or the excitement of its predecessor.
5. One Thing at a Time moved 501,000 units in its first week. What’s your (mildly educated) guess for what I’m the Problem will post as its first-week number?
Katie Atkinson: I’m thinking it will be another half a milli. Wallen’s popularity has stayed steady in the last two years, and as evidenced by the top 10 performance of all five pre-release songs, people are still craving new music from him. My educated guess will be 502k just so he can say he bumped it up a step.
Kyle Denis: I’ll say… north of 450k, but it doesn’t surpass 501k.
Jason Lipshutz: 550,000. It’s got 37 tracks, it’s coming out during a relatively sleepy moment for new releases, and did I mention it’s got 37 tracks? The early streaming numbers should help Wallen’s latest secure his biggest debut yet.
Jessica Nicholson: Though this 37-song album barely exceeds the length its predecessor, the 36-track One Thing at a Time, Wallen’s celebrity status seems to have only grown since his last album. This album also includes collabs with Eric Church and Tate McRae, which should further spur fan excitement. I would conservatively estimate the project would come in at around 510,000 in first-week consumption.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say 485,000. Not quite the first week of One Thing, but close enough that nobody really tries to read too much into the decrease.
After reclaiming it for a third total week, Playboi Carti’s Music vacates the top spot of the Billboard 200 albums chart this week. But Carti likely won’t be too mad about the album replacing his at No. 1: More Chaos, the latest LP from his Opium imprint signee Ken Carson.
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The rising rapper’s 21-track new set becomes his first album to top the Billboard 200, following predecessor A Great Chaos peaking at No. 11 in 2023. The album takes advantage of a relatively slow week for new albums, as its 59,500 first-week units (according to Luminate) marks the lowest total for a No. 1 album since Pusha T’s It’s Almost Dry bested the chart with just under 55,000 units in May 2022.
How meaningful is the bow for Ken Carson? And which rapper could be next to score their first No. 1 album? Billboard staffers answer those questions and more below.
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1. Ken Carson’s More Chaos debuts at No. 1 this week with 59,000 equivalent album units moved. On a scale from 1-10, how big a deal do you think this is for the young rapper’s career?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: Definitely a 9 or 10. A No. 1 album is a massive accomplishment in its own right, but Ken’s debut I think surprised a good amount of people. His supporters have been devout for years, but I don’t think the uninitiated expected those supporters to come through in such high numbers like they did. For someone who at the beginning of his career was written off as a Carti clone, moving 59,000 units I think officially puts that criticism to rest. To see a fanbase grow this big in just two years is a serious accomplishment. We know a lot of that was the music, but a lot of it was because of his last tour. Ken developed a similar reputation to Carti for putting on explosive live performances, and I think the atmosphere he cultivated at his shows last year really shifted his supporters to a more cult-like level.
Kyle Denis: Absolutely a 10. You can be a fan (or not), you can say that this was a weak chart week, whatever. The fact of the matter is that Ken Carson has the No. 1 album in America with a style of rap that’s far more niche than other hip-hop chart-toppers. And he’s only 25. This is a massive deal for him.
Angel Diaz: I think I’ll go with a 6? Having an album go No. 1 is always an achievement to be proud of, but those numbers are a bit disappointing, especially when you consider the hype around Ken and his Opium labelmates Destroy Lonely and Playboi Carti. I was expecting a bigger debut.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. While the equivalent album units total isn’t high enough to suggest a huge swell of popularity compared to Carson’s previous projects, a No. 1 album is a No. 1 album, and may be the type of headline-grabbing achievement that will turn more casual rap fans toward the Atlanta native. For most music fans, a chart-topping project does not come with an asterisk that denotes a quiet release week and relatively low units total; More Chaos was the biggest album of the past week, and for a rising artists like Carson, that statement is all that matters.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 9? Obviously the number is low by No. 1 standards, but scoring a No. 1 album (or even a top five album really) as a young rapper without much crossover success is not something easily done in 2025. Lots of folks are talking about Ken Carson this week whose radar he might not have otherwise been on, and that’s always a big W.
2. Ken Carson has basically seen exponential growth with his album-to-album performance on the Billboard 200 – from a No. 115 peak on 2022’s X to No. 11 with A Great Chaos in 2023 now to No. 1. What do you think the biggest reason for that rapid growth is?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: The most important reason is the music has objectively gotten a lot better. Like, we can all admit X wasn’t a good introduction to who Ken was as a rapper or how he’d stand out amongst the other Carti clones popping up online. A Great Chaos was that introduction: The beats were interesting, and Ken’s voice and flow sounded unique. I think A Great Chaos satiated rage rap fans really well just on its face, but also had a lot of moments where you could tell this was a different kind of record compared to everything else coming out of Opium. Another equally-as-important reason I think is the live shows: We’re seeing that if you can bring the energy in interesting ways to your performances, it can draw in a ton of new, young fans. It’s been an instrumental factor in Carti’s and Travis Scott’s staying power, and I think Ken knows that and is tapping into that.
Kyle Denis: I think the dedication of the Opium fanbase and the continued glow of being one of Carti’s protégés have helped with his rapid growth. In addition to his own headlining tours, Carson has also been a regular on the festival circuit, playing lively sets at Coachella (2024), Rolling Loud (several times over) and Lollapalooza (2023) that frequently spin viral moments out of raucous mosh pits.
Angel Diaz: We have to thank Carti’s influential 2020 album Whole Lotta Red for laying down the foundation for Carson’s rage rap sound. Many young fans from diverse backgrounds listen to his music and have been at shows moshing to their music. Some feel like Opium’s sound is the next big thing in rap, so it’s no surprise that his stock is rising. His next album will be the one that could define his career.
Jason Lipshutz: Carson is the right artist at the right moment in hip-hop — a compelling, mainstream-friendly MC who trades in the blown-out rage rap that continues to dominate commercially. More Chaos takes over at the top of the Billboard 200 from Music, Playboi Carti’s long-awaited opus which spent three of the past four weeks at No. 1 (and is featured on Carson’s track “Off the Meter”); Carti is Carson’s label leader, and Music shares its sonic DNA with More Chaos, with both artists whipping through grinding production and shifting their flows across their respective sprawling projects. Hip-hop fans are unquestionably hungry for artists and projects like this, and Carson is the latest beneficiary of the trend.
Andrew Unterberger: Stronger craft and good timing.
3. While Carson is becoming a formidable force on the Billboard 200, his presence on the Billboard Hot 100 has been fairly muted – and none of the 21 songs on this album make the chart this week. Do you see hit songs in Carson’s future, or do you think it makes sense that his success be mostly album-focused?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I think what we’re seeing with a lot of these rage rap guys, with the exception of Carti, is that album really is God. Yeat is a good example of this. His biggest Hot 100 hit was Drake’s “IDGAF,” but outside of that his single’s have never done insanely well compared to his albums. I think with Ken, we’re likely gonna see the same sort of trajectory. Fans of this kind of music also tend to enjoy full length albums more because they appreciate the enveloping sound of these kinds of rappers. It’s become a vital part of the experience, which is kinda cool because it goes against the algorithmic focus on quick, catchy singles that major labels have pushed for in recent years via TikTok and other apps.
Kyle Denis: I can see Carson getting a hit with a song that explicitly caters to a wider audience – kind of like how “Rather Lie” was the clear radio-ready cut from Carti’s sprawling Music album. I definitely wouldn’t put money on a solo rage rap Carson song making a splash on the Hot 100. I’m almost certain his success will continue to be focused on albums/full-length projects and live shows.
Angel Diaz: That was surprising, but there also isn’t a song that sticks out for me on More Chaos. The album kinda moves like a side-scrolling video game soundtrack and each track represents a different level in the game. The production is moving faster than his raps, which sounds a bit jarring at first. I think he’s going to need a hit record eventually if he wants to be considered a major player in mainstream rap moving forward.
Jason Lipshutz: “Blakk Rokkstar” is a standout from More Chaos, as the type of operatic trap headbanger that Travis Scott has ridden to multiple hits over the years. But considering how scorching-hot Playboi Carti is at the moment, their album-closing collaboration “Off the Meter” (also featuring Destroy Lonely) is probably the safest bet for the song that uses this No. 1 album debut as a springboard for Carson to receive more streams and radio play. With its loping synth melody and a particularly feisty Carti feature, “Off the Meter” definitely has crossover potential.
Andrew Unterberger: You can never rule out the possibility of anyone catching a hit these days off some unexpected viral heat, but in terms of whether he’s ever going to be a reliable hitmaker from a singles perspective… it seems unlikely. The songs aren’t written with pop structure or pop goals in mind, and his fans don’t seem to want that from him anyway.
4. The album Chaos replaces at No. 1, Music, comes from his label boss and partner-in-rage Playboi Carti. Do you think it says something about hip-hop in 2025 that the albums should top the chart in back-to-back weeks, or is it mostly just a timing fluke?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I think it’s too early to say for certain whether this is a definitive moment or not for hip-hop in 2025. Truthfully, it could be just great timing for Opium. I could be wrong, but I think Chaos going number one came as a pleasant surprise for a lot of people, including maybe Ken himself? I certainly didn’t expect it to move 59,000 units.
Kyle Denis: I think it’s mostly a timing fluke, but I also think it further cements that Playboi Carti is one of the biggest pop stars of 2025. Not only is Carti enjoying multiple visits to the top of the Billboard 200 and scoring radio hits (thanks to The Weeknd’s “Timeless”) and concurrent Hot 100 top 10 debuts, but he’s also minting tomorrow’s biggest rap stars through Opium. Now, both Carson’s and Destroy Lonely’s most recent LPs have reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 in back-to-back years. As things currently stand, Carti and Kendrick are two indisputable pillars of 2025 hip-hop’s Big Three.
Angel Diaz: Hip-hop is the most important pop culture phenomenon to come along in the last 50 years and it’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Even the pop girlies like Billie Eilish and Camila Cabello either dress like rappers or try to incorporate their sound in some way or another. I think it’s a pretty safe bet that other rap albums will top the album charts in 2025. Now, if you ask me if that’s a good thing is another conversation. Whenever something that was once counterculture becomes a mainstream staple, it gets watered down. However, Ken did benefit from a quiet week, and he probably wouldn’t have gone No. 1 if he went up against a heavyweight rapper, pop star, or country singer.
Jason Lipshutz: Partially a timing fluke, but while Kendrick Lamar and Drake duke it out in the headlines and at the top of the Hot 100, rage has not-so-quietly swerved to the front of popular rap, the sound du jour of young listeners searching for sound to match their teenage intensity. We’re going to see more months like this in the future, where both A-list rappers and rising genre stars share space at the top of the Billboard 200 to reflect bigger-than-expected fan bases. Playboi Carti’s appeal and influence are undeniable at this point, but more Ken Carsons are coming soon, too.
Andrew Unterberger: The timing is definitely more coincidental than anything, but you’d be pretty silly not to at least take note that this strain of rap is connecting with audiences in a way many other styles — some of which would be thought to be much more conventionally commercial — really aren’t right now.
5. Which other rising rapper who’s yet to score a Billboard 200 No. 1 album do you think is likely to top the chart sooner than later?
Mackenzie Cummings-Grady: I think things are looking promising for BigXThaPlug. His pivot into country is being super well received so far, which historically has been a hard pivot to make. His debut in the top five last week I think is a promising sign for him if he keeps up this momentum. Lil Tecca could also pull it off if he rolls out his album the right way. He’s got a serious record on his hand with “Dark Thoughts,” and I think he has the potential to chart very high if he keeps dropping heat.
Kyle Denis: I’ll keep an eye on Lil Tecca and BigXthaPlug. Neither Megan Thee Stallion nor Doja Cat are rising stars, but I’d be surprised if they both didn’t eventually snag a Billboard 200 No. 1 album.
Angel Diaz: Megan and GloRilla haven’t had a No. 1 album yet. I can see either of them reaching the top of the album charts in the future. As far as rising, though? Cash Cobain is the first name that comes to mind based on the type of music he makes. I know he can be a little too horny at times, but his production is so good the vulgarity can be tolerated.
Jason Lipshutz: BigXThaPlug. After scoring his first top 10 album in October with Take Care, the Dallas rapper cruised into the top 5 of the Hot 100 earlier this month with the Bailey Zimmerman team-up “All the Way.” If that smash leads a new project in the near future, get ready for that project to top the Billboard 200.
Andrew Unterberger: Almost too obvious, but Doechii for sure.
