State Champ Radio finance
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The concert business has had a record year in 2023 — tours by Taylor Swift and Beyoncé were pop culture moments, festivals roared back to life and consumers’ splurging on tickets seemed to defy gravity. There’s likely more good news on the horizon, too. By all forecasts, next year is shaping up for continued success, even as consumers still feel pinched by inflation.
Among the big names to announce stadium tours next year are The Rolling Stones, Foo Fighters, Green Day and a pairing of Journey and Def Leppard. Chris Stapleton, Zach Bryan and Luke Combs will hit both stadiums and arenas. Drake, Bad Bunny, Thirty Seconds to Mars, Hootie & the Blowfish, New Kids on the Block, Alanis Morissette and The Trilogy Tour featuring Enrique Iglesias, Ricky Martin and Pitbull will play arenas and amphitheaters. Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour continues in 2024, too, with 85 shows announced for Asia, Australia and North America.
Advanced ticket sales suggest consumers remain eager to see their favorite artists perform live. Through mid-October, Live Nation’s event-related deferred revenue — from ticket sales to events that had not yet occurred — was up 39% year over year, according to the company’s third-quarter earnings release.
AEG Presents, the second-largest promoter, is “feeling really positive” about 2024 tours across all venue sizes and genres, says Rich Schaefer, president of global touring. “I think people are discovering new artists and want to see big shows — and they’re willing to pay for it.” They’re buying well in advance, too: AEG put tickets on sale for 76 Zach Bryan shows in 2024 — some won’t happen until December — and has “largely sold everything out,” says Schaeffer. “That artist especially has a crazy connection with his fans. They’ve seen videos of what his shows are like, and I think everybody wants to experience it.”
Those big tours — and thousands of others — are counting on consumers to continue to open their wallets despite continued high prices for staples and living expenses, rising debt delinquencies and Americans’ credit card debt reaching a record level in the third quarter. The holidays are presenting mixed signals: Black Friday spending was up 2.5% compared to 2022, but numerous surveys have found consumers plan to spend less on gifts this year.
Consumers may feel beleaguered, but they continue to spend to see their favorite artists perform live. “I have weekly booking calls with the over 40 presidents around the world and we talk booking clubs up to stadiums and festivals, and we have not seen anything taper off in any sense,” said Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino during the company’s Nov. 2 earnings call. The company is “not seeing any pullback in any way” in consumer demand regardless of the region or venue size, he added.
A big question, though, is whether consumers will be in a spending mood throughout 2024. A new Goldman Sachs economic outlook report says the U.S. economy today is better than was expected a year ago, inflation will continue to subside and the likelihood of a recession in 2024 is “limited.” The latest data from the University of Michigan is encouraging: U.S. consumer sentiment soared in December and people’s expectations for year-ahead inflation dropped to 3.1% from 4.5% last month.
Whatever uncertainties exist — including falling savings rates and weakening credit conditions — have not materialized in ticket sales thus far. “We certainly see the headlines [about macroeconomic conditions], but it’s not flowing through to numbers that we can see,” Lawrence Fey, CFO of secondary ticket marketplace Vivid Seats, said during a Nov. 7 earnings call.
One could simply look at who’s touring in 2024 to get a sense of where ticket buyers are thinking. “You got The Stones going on the road in parts in North America,” says Doug Arthur of Huber Research Partners. “They’re always a pretty big draw. The Stones are pretty savvy historically about touring when they think the economics support it.”
Consumers’ willingness to spend increasing amounts on live music isn’t a new trend — although some of 2023’s record-setting box office numbers appear to be the result of music fans may be clamoring for live events in after suffering through pandemic-era restrictions. The concert industry has benefited from a lasting shift among consumers from goods to experiences over the last 10 to 15 years, says Brandon Ross, an analyst with LightShed Partners.
This year’s boffo box office numbers weren’t outliers, and Ross expects to see “outsized performance on a global basis” in 2024. “There has been a year-and-a-half long concern for a broader pullback in consumer spending,” says Ross. “I don’t think will not impact growth, but I think there’s substantial tailwind supporting this industry.”
Those tailwinds probably won’t be strong enough for next year’s touring business to duplicate 2023’s stellar growth rate — but no one seems to be expecting that. “I don’t think you’re talking about another up 30% type of year, and I don’t think [Live Nation is] talking about that either,” says Arthur. “But can the concert revenues be up high single digits between volume, fans per show, price per ticket and spending per fan? Yeah, I think that’s not unreasonable at all.”
Artists and promoters will continue to encounter high costs in 2024 — labor, catering, buses and staging are stretched thin with a high number of big tours on the road. That’ll continue to push ticket prices up. Even so, AEG hasn’t seen resistance to higher prices, says Schaefer. “There’s very few instances where we think that pricing is responsible for tickets not selling.”
Spotify’s announcement this week that it was laying off 17% of its global workforce surprised a music business enjoying a renaissance. After all, Spotify ignited the subscription-streaming boom that saved the industry. And while the companies that depend on the online advertising business go through booms and busts — think of Meta cutting 21,000 jobs since 2022 — music business jobs have been relatively safe.
Spotify’s decision to eliminate about 1,500 full-time staffers shouldn’t have come as a surprise, though. As CEO Daniel Ek put it in a letter announcing the layoffs, “Today, we still have too many people dedicated to supporting work and even doing work around the work rather than contributing to opportunities with real impact.”
Over a decade and a half, Spotify pioneered a new model for music subscriptions by prioritizing growth over profit. While on-demand video streaming services such as Netflix frequently raised prices, Spotify left most of its prices unchanged until July. Digital music platforms have a notoriously tricky path to profitability, but Spotify’s share price soared thanks to a pandemic-era boost to streaming companies as well as high expectations for its nascent podcasting business. By February 2021, as Spotify poured money into acquisitions and pricey podcasting content, the stock was trading at $364.59 per share, valuing the company at roughly $71 billion.
By 2022, however, Spotify’s investors had run out of patience. The stock was trading at $110 on June 8 when Ek and CFO Paul Vogel shared their ambitious plan at the company’s Investor Day presentation: $100 billion in annual revenue, 40% gross margins and 20% operating margins. To get there, Spotify would continue to scale its podcasting business and lean on its audio content acquisitions — The Ringer, Parcast, Megaphone and Anchor — to help the format reach larger audiences. Now, Spotify also wants to do for audiobooks what it did with podcasts: piggyback on its massive base of music listeners, develop innovative products and build a bigger market.
Podcasts and audiobooks, as well as services sold to artists and record labels like merchandise listings and Discovery Mode, are important to reaching the targets of 40% gross margin and 20% operating margin. Given the nature of licensing deals with record labels and music publishers, music margins have little room to improve. Whereas video streamers like Netflix pay fixed costs for much of their content, Spotify pays a percentage of revenue to record labels and music publishers. That means as revenue increases, so do its content costs. And that’s not likely to change. “Our strategy is not predicated on trying to extract margin by negotiating better terms with the content partners we have,” Ek said at the 2022 Investor Day.
Over a year later, however, Billboard’s analysis of Spotify’s financial statements shows the company is still nowhere near its target margins. Since the first quarter of 2020, its gross profit margin has fallen between 24.1% and 28.4% while its operating profit margin has ranged from –8.8% to 3% and was below zero in 11 of 15 quarters.
Merely adding subscribers isn’t enough. (The company reported 226 million at the end of Q3 2023.) Reaching its targets requires Spotify to cut costs while investing in new growth opportunities such as podcasts and audiobooks. Ek said as much when explaining Vogel’s upcoming departure on Thursday. “I’ve talked a lot with Paul about the need to balance these two objectives carefully,” he said in a statement. “Over time, we’ve come to the conclusion that Spotify is entering a new phase and needs a CFO with a different mix of experiences.”
Spotify’s cost-cutting started in 2022 with a pause on new hires, layoffs in October and the cancellation of six live audio shows in December. This year, it laid off 6% of its global staff in January and in June merged two podcast production houses, Gimlet and Parcast, and further cut its podcast workforce by 2%. In August, it shut down Spotify Live, a short-lived live streaming app. Then on Monday, Spotify announced it would lay off 17% of its workforce. It also canceled two in-house podcasts, Heavyweight and Stolen.
As the graphs show, recent trends in Spotify’s financials made it clear larger cuts were necessary to meet the company’s ambitious targets. Personnel costs as a percentage of revenue rose from 13.8% in 2021 to 16.2% in 2022. Research and development expenses — which include some salaries — jumped from 9.4% of revenue in 2021 to 11.8% in 2022.
As Ek explained in the memo to employees, Spotify grew in 2021 and 2022 to take advantage of lower-cost capital. Today’s environment is different, however, and Ek believes Spotify’s “cost structure for where we need to be is still too big.” Indeed, Spotify’s head count steadily increased as it acquired companies, developed new formats and created product innovations that both resonated (Spotify Wrapped) and flopped (Spotify Live) with users. The number of full-time employees increased nearly 50% from 2020 to 2022.
This growth came without added efficiency, however. The revenue generated per employee peaked at 1.54 million euros ($1.66 million) in 2019 and declined to 1.4 million euros ($1.51 million) in 2022 — the lowest since 2017. The July price increase will help Spotify bring in more revenue without additional staff or resources, though the effectiveness of those increases won’t be known until Spotify releases full-year results in late January.
What’s more, Spotify’s gross profit per employee fell to a five-year low in 2022. Gross profit is what’s left after cost of sales — primarily royalties to labels and publishers — is deducted from revenue. It goes toward personnel costs, sales and marketing expenses, and general and administrative costs. But as Spotify added employees in recent years, gross profit per employee fell to 350,000 euros ($377,000) in 2022 from 391,600 euros ($421,000) in 2021.
An obvious way for Spotify to reach its target margins was to make larger cuts to its workforce and, as Ek phrased it, “become relentlessly resourceful.” Cutting 17% of its personnel costs would have resulted in savings of 323 million euros ($349 million) in 2022, based on total personnel costs of 1.9 billion euros ($2.05 billion). That savings would have halved Spotify’s 2022 operating loss of 659 million euros ($711 million).
Ultimately, the multi-billion-dollar question is simple: Can Spotify continue adding subscribers as fast as it has in previous years and develop its spoken word products into the higher-margin businesses it needs with far fewer employees? That’s the high-stakes situation the new CFO will walk into in 2024 and that will determine the company’s future from here on out.
“I’m a musician. The risk I take is in my chosen career path. I don’t want to take risk in my investments.” This was the most common remark we heard from entertainer clients for years.
And the most common advice those musicians would receive to address their concerns was, “Invest in municipal bonds. Your principal is protected, default risk is low, and you get tax-free income.” For the most part, that was true… until interest rates stayed close to 0% from 2020-2022 and then rose at their fastest pace in US history since then. During that time, municipal bonds were not what they were promised to be — down almost 10% in 2022 — especially for those who thought they couldn’t lose money owning them.
To be fair, barring defaults, and even with the recent price declines, municipal bonds bought prior to the rise in interest rates will give investors the return they signed up for when they bought them. But now we have artists coming to us excited that they are getting paid 5% pre-tax on cash in money market funds. However, those heady money market rates can be cut in half by taxes and they won’t last forever — we suspect they won’t even last much longer from here.
So, what can you do for an attractive risk-adjusted return these days while avoiding the volatility of the stock market? Let’s look at some particularly interesting options.
Intermediate Duration Municipal Bonds
While past performance doesn’t always translate into the future, over rolling two-year periods, high-quality intermediate municipal bonds have never lost money. Now, with interest rates at their highest levels in almost 20 years and municipalities’ finances healthy, these bonds look more attractive than they have in a long time.
However, balancing exposure to different sources of return in fixed income is important. We do not recommend just buying Treasuries or Treasury/municipality ladders. Consider an actively managed bond portfolio (as opposed to laddering) with the flexibility to move between municipal bonds and taxable bonds based on their relative attractiveness. This allows you to maximize after-tax returns while also managing interest rate exposure.
Hedged Exposure to Stocks
The S&P 500 is up over 18% year-to-date (as of Dec. 4), but it’s done so in a fairly volatile manner and more than half of the stocks in it are actually down for the year.
For investors concerned about volatility, they can consider reducing exposure to the market in the near-to-medium term by using a defined outcome exchange-traded fund (DOETF). Like other ETFs, these types of securities have daily liquidity and relatively low cost. But what makes DOETFs different from the index ETFs that many investors are familiar with is that they utilize options to create a specially designed payoff. For instance, recently created versions of DOETFs allow an investor to capture around 15% of any upside in stocks while not experiencing the first 15% of any market decline.
So, if the market is up 20% over the next year, investors will be up around 15%. If the market rises 8%, investors’ returns will be the same. If the market is down 10%, the investors won’t have any gains but also won’t take any loss. And if the market has an awful year and ends down 20%, investors would only be down 5%.
Private Credit
Every week brings new headlines about banks cutting back lending in different areas. It raises the question, “Who is lending money to businesses these days?” Private debt funds.
This area has grown substantially since the financial crisis as government regulations have made it harder and costlier for banks to lend. The private markets have stepped into that void. One notable aspect of these loans is that they’re made at floating rates, with financing usually made similarly. That’s protected them from the run-up in interest rates, as fixed interest investments have declined in value. That’s also allowed them to keep up better with inflation. Investors contemplating private credit should consider the fact that some of these strategies are only available to accredited investors or qualified purchasers and they’re often illiquid, with money locked up for several years at a time.
Real Estate
In addition to private credit, we’re seeing attractive opportunities to lend into the commercial real estate (CRE) market, partly for the same reasons as private credit (with banks stepping back) and partly for real estate-specific reasons, such as the pressure on office prices since the pandemic. However, with office being only one small piece of the overall market and with lenders having attractive bargaining power as assets are revalued and refinanced, that’s an area we’ve been highlighting in 2023.
Finally, and further up the risk spectrum, is real estate equity. Even inside that asset class, the risks can vary. With the turbulence in the market, we’re starting to see more attractive opportunities emerge in the “core plus” space, which are typically well-leased, income-producing properties in good locations. They’re often found in commuter suburbs in secondary or tertiary markets.
Like private credit, these real estate strategies are often illiquid, and even some of the strategies which are advertised as more liquid have gated investor redemptions recently. But for investors with enough cash flowing in to meet their outflows (even in a distressed situation) and a longer time horizon, the rewards for accepting that illiquidity can be meaningful.
What to Do
As always, investors should consult with a licensed investment advisor before making investment decisions. While each of the asset classes discussed here may be of interest, they are not suitable for all investors. At the same time, we recognize that having excess cash earning 5% in money market funds may feel nice for now, but it may not feel so nice looking back on things in a year’s time. Investors don’t need to feel tied to cash or forced to swing for the fences — there are many options worth considering in the middle ground.
Finally, while we’ve mostly focused on safer options here, which are meant to guard against the risk of market volatility, there’s another risk that investors must weigh — the risk of running out of money during retirement. Taking too little volatility risk can potentially generate excessive depletion risk. We recommend discussing this, and other considerations, with your financial advisor.
Adam Sansiveri is a senior managing director and head of the Nashville Private Client Group at Bernstein. Stacie Jacobsen is a director in Bernstein’s Wealth Strategies Group. Sansiveri and Jacobsen are co-heads of the Sports, Media and Entertainment Group at Bernstein Private Wealth Management, a division of AllianceBernstein. AllianceBernstein is a leading global research and investment management firm headquartered in Nashville with over $700 billion under management and offices in 53 cities in 26 countries.
Artists who decided to sell their catalogs in 2023 did a little better, on average, than the year before, according to a new report by Shot Tower Capital, a Baltimore-based investment banking firm that focuses on media and entertainment.
The average multiple of private music publishing catalogs — excluding a small number of iconic catalogs that fetch a premium — increased to 17.2 times net publisher’s share (or gross profit after paying writer royalties) in 2023 from 16.7 times NPS in 2022. Including iconic catalogs, the average multiple decreased slightly in 2023 to 19.2 times net publishers share from 19.4 times NPS in 2022.
While the average multiple improved this year, the 17.2 times NPS average was well below the peak of 20.1 times NPS in 2019, as well as below the 17.9 NPS average for the period spanning 2019 to 2023.
Even so, catalog valuations have held up well amid recent higher inflation rates, Shot Tower explains, even as interest rates — which began to climb in 2021 after falling to historic lows at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 — have tamped down valuations. That’s because buyers’ future growth expectations have increased, due in part to increased upcoming distributions from the Music Licensing Collective — thanks to favorable Copyright Royalty Board rate determinations this year — and the development of new digital sources such as TikTok.
A shift amongst buyers in the catalog market has also brought catalog valuations down from their 2019 peak.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund, the publicly traded investment trust founded by Merck Mercuriadis, was the price-setter from 2018 to 2021. In the latter year, Hipgnosis Songs Fund bought stakes in such catalogs as Neil Young, Shakira and Red Hot Chili Peppers. Before Hipgnosis Songs Fund’s IPO in 2018, the average publishing catalog multiple was 16.2 times NPS in 2017. That jumped to 18.8 times NPS in 2018 and 20.1 times NPS in 2019 and 18.8 times NPS in 2020. In 2022, though, when Hipgnosis Songs Fund was unable to raise more money through additional equity offerings and stopped buying catalogs, the average publishing multiple dropped to 16.9 times NPS. Since 2022, Hipgnosis Songs Management has been employing a more disciplined approach for its privately held fund, Hipgnosis Songs Capital, which is backed by Blackstone, sources tell Billboard.
Shot Tower believes catalog buyers like Hipgnosis Songs Fund and Round Hill Music Royalty Fund — another publicly listed investment trust that Concord acquired in October — now have less influence in current transaction valuations. Instead, large companies are showing their willingness to pay a premium to control rights such as licensing. As interest rates increase, the Shot Tower report states, “yield-focused financial investors have pulled back” and strategic buyers — major labels and publishers — “continue their focus on acquiring quality assets with control where they can impact long-term growth.”
New capital investment will favor the approach taken by these strategic buyers, according to the report. Publishing and recorded music catalogs that provide full control — such as owning 100% of the publisher’s and songwriter’s shares — will continue to be highly valued by strategic buyers. Rights of “marginal quality” catalogs and passive income “are finding less demand.” There’s are good reasons for placing a premium on control: Shot Tower estimates the ability to eliminate third-party distribution and administration costs is equal to an immediate increase in a valuation multiple of 2.0 times NPS or NLS. In addition, having control over a catalog provides opportunities for licensing and new projects with “potential to drive growth far in excess of industry averages.”
While the typical publishing catalog transaction value has leveled off since the 2019 peak, a few iconic catalogs — Shot Tower defines them as exceeding $200 million — approached 30 times NPS in 2023, a level matched in 2021 but higher than amounts paid in 2022. These catalogs go “primarily to an existing label/publisher with highly strategic (and sometimes defensive) reasons for purchasing at above-market prices,” the report explains.
One such iconic recorded music catalog sold for nearly 30 times net label share in 2023, according to the report — a much higher multiple than recorded music deals in previous years. (The report does not name the iconic catalog sold in 2023, but the only recorded music transaction exceeding $200 million that was made public this year was Litmus Music’s purchase of Katy Perry’s catalog for $225 million.) In previous years, iconic recorded music catalogs sold for between 22 times and 26 times net label share, or profit after royalty payments; and distribution, manufacturing, warehousing and shipment costs, but before marketing expenses.
Recorded music multiples — for both iconic and non-iconic catalogs — have risen over time while publishing multiples are consistent with levels seen in the late ‘90s, according to Shot Tower. That’s because the record business’s shift from physical to digital has helped improve record labels’ margins. Shot Tower points to Warner Music Group as an example: In 2010, when physical sales exceeded digital revenues, WMG’s adjusted earnings before taxes, interest, depreciation and amortization margin was 13.4%. By 2023, WMG’s adjusted EBITDA margin had improved to 23.8%. Shot Tower estimates that every 1% shift in revenue from physical to digital and streaming has increased WMG’s EBITDA and cash flow margins by about 25 basis points (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point). If digital sources eventually account for 95% of recorded music sales, margins have the potential to improve another 5%.
Expect similar multiples in the coming years, says Shot Tower. Although its crystal ball is “a bit hazy” — uncertain interest rate and macroeconomic environments make predictions difficult — the firm expects interests to “moderate” in the first half of 2024 and multiples “to remain steady for the foreseeable future with higher-than-projected industry growth being offset by the continued drag of higher interest rates.”
Based on current growth projections, and adjusting for the current interest rate environment, ex-icon publishing multiples will range from 15.9 to 16.7 times NPS over the next four years. That’s in line with prior periods but a slip from the most recent years and well below the peaks from 2018 to 2020. Multiples averaged 16.4 times NPS from 2014 to 2022 but exceeded 18.0 times NPS from 2018 and 2020 and peaked at 20.1 times NPS in 2019.
As for recorded music, Shot Tower expects an average ex-icon multiple of 12.9 to 13.4 times net label share over the next four years. That’s in line with post-2020 trends that saw multiples jump as investors became convinced streaming would be a financial boon to recorded music revenues. Historically, the larger marketing spending associated with master recordings and a lower diversity of revenue streams has caused recorded music to trade at lower multiples to publishing assets. Shot Tower believes recorded music will continue to trade at a discount to publishing multiples despite margins improving as streaming accounts for a higher percentage of recorded music’s revenue mix.
But the value gap has become closer between music publishing and recorded music assets. In 2020, recorded music transactions carried an average NLS multiple of 10.4 times while music publishing transactions averaged an 18.8 NPS multiple that year — with a gap of 8.4 times between them. In 2022, that gap narrowed to 4.3 times, with a 12.4 times NLS multiple for recorded music and a 16.7 NPS for music publishing.
Shot Tower Capital has closed financings and M&A transactions in excess of $16 billion since its founding in 2012. Those have included such deals as the sale of Imagem to Concord, the sales of Phil Collins and Genesis catalogs also to Concord, and Michael Jackson’s estate share of Sony/ATV to Sony. If the Shot Tower principals David Dunn and Rob Law’s entertainment deals from the prior employment at the firms Alex. Brown and and Bear Stearns, respectively, are included, they have closed over 125 media, entertainment and consumer related transactions representing aggregate value exceeding $70 billion, according to the report.
iHeartMedia shares dropped 19.6% to $2.01 this week as the company warned investors of continued softness in radio advertising dollars. Fourth quarter results “will be weaker than we originally anticipated,” said CEO Bob Pittman during Thursday’s earnings call. In October, consolidated revenue was down 8% from the prior-year period. For the fourth quarter, iHeartMedia expects consolidated revenue excluding political ad revenue to decline in the low single digits.
Still, iHeartMedia’s third-quarter results were in line with previous guidance. Revenue of $953 million was down 3.6% from the prior-year period, a bit better than the guidance of a low single-digit decrease. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $204 million was within the guidance of $195 million to $205 million.
The week’s sharp decline brought iHeartMedia’s year-to-date loss to 67.2%, far deeper than the declines of broadcast radio company Cumulus Media (-21.9%) and satellite radio company SiriusXM (-20.7%). Not only has broadcast radio suffered from weak national advertising, it lacks the high growth rates of music streaming and podcasting. PwC’s latest forecasts call for U.S. radio advertising revenues to rise just 4% from 2023 to 2027 while U.S. podcast advertising — where iHeartMedia has a large footprint — will grow 41% to $2 billion.
Next year’s elections should provide a shot in the arm, though. “As we look forward to 2024, we expect to generate significantly better free cash flow driven in part by an improving macro environment, as well as the impact of political dollars,” said CFO Rich Bressler. In 2020, the company generated $167 million in political revenues, he noted.
The Billboard Global Music Index mostly held steady this week, dropping just 0.3% to 1,390.68. Of the index’s 20 stocks, seven gained this while while 13 finished in negative territory. Most stocks had low-single-digit gains or losses and iHeartMedia was the only stock with a double-digit move in either direction.
French company Believe was the index’s greatest gainer of the week after improving 7.4% to 9.93 euros ($10.64). German concert promoter CTS Eventim, which will release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 21, gained 5.5% to 62.75 euros ($67.24). Music streaming company LiveOne gained 4.7% to $1.12. Chinese music streamer Cloud Music, which has not yet announced the date of its third-quarter earnings release, gained 3.3% to 99.50 HKD ($12.74).
Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. dropped 1.5% to $35.95 after a roller-coaster week. Following the company’s Nov. 3 announcement that CFO Gautum Ranji had left the company, Sphere Entertainment shares dropped 9.6% to $32.97 on Monday. The share price fell an additional 4.5% to $31.87 on Wednesday following the quarterly earnings release. But Sphere Entertainment picked up momentum in the latter half of the week, gaining 12.8% over Thursday and Friday to close at $35.95.
U.S. stocks were broadly up this week despite news that consumer sentiment declined in November and expectations for future inflation reached their highest level since 2011. The Nasdaq composite rose 2.4% while the S&P 500 improved 1.3%. Many major U.S. tech stocks posted big gains. Microsoft hit an all-time high of $370.09 on Friday and finished the week at $369.67, up 4.8%. Apple rose 5.5% to $186.40. Amazon improved 3.6% to $143.56. Meta jumped 4.5% to $32.8.77. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.8%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 1.7%.
Music companies’ third-quarter earnings reports have so far been full of good news and positive trends. Subscription and streaming growth continue to drive revenues for record labels and publishers. Live entertainment continues its post-pandemic expansion. Margins are healthy. Overall, these have been solid report cards for the state of the music business.
Among the companies to report thus far are Universal Music Group, Sony Music, Spotify, Believe, Sphere Entertainment Co., MSG Entertainment, HYBE and SiriusXM. Next week’s earnings reports will come from Warner Music Group (Nov. 16) and Tencent Music Entertainment (Nov. 14). German concert promoter CTS Eventim will report on Nov. 21.
Here are seven items from the earnings releases to date that stood out and deserve more attention.
Universal Music Group struck out against “merchants of garbage.” During Universal Music Group’s Oct. 26 earnings call, chairman and CEO Lucian Grainge got a lot of attention when he bemoaned the “merchants of garbage” — creators of low-value functional music such as generic mood music and nature sounds — that want to be on equal royalty terms at streaming platforms as such UMG artists as Taylor Swift, The Beatles and The Rolling Stones. Grainge’s memorable turn of phrase came in defense of UMG’s artist-centric royalty scheme crafted in partnership with French music streaming service Deezer. “Sorry, I can’t really think of another word for content that no one really actually wants to listen to,” Grainge said.
Spotify’s price increase gave a much-needed uplift to subscription revenues. The price for an individual Spotify subscription in the U.S. was $9.99 from 2011 to July 2023. The price hike to $10.99 in roughly 50 markets may have arrived later than its competitors, but it came just when Spotify needed a boost. Spotify’s premium average revenue per user dropped 6% year over year (1% at constant currency) mainly because the company had a larger share of family plans compared to the prior-year, CFO Paul Vogel said during the July 25 earnings call. Early returns from the price increase in the U.S., U.K. and dozens of other markets helped offset those losses. Because Spotify’s number of subscribers increased 16% year over year to 226 million, subscription revenue grew 10% year over year (16% at constant currency) to 2.9 billion euros ($3.1 billion). With three full months of a price increase in the fourth quarter and considering the price increase covered about 75% of Spotify’s revenue base, the company expects the price increase to provide “a positive, mid-single digit” benefit (excluding foreign exchange) in the fourth quarter, said Vogel.
No company lowered guidance, and some have raised guidance. Sony Music raised guidance for revenue and adjusted operating income before depreciation and amortization by 5% and 4%, respectively. Reservoir Media raised guidance for fiscal 2024 revenue and adjusted EBITDA by 10% each. It’s one thing for a company to meet expectations it had previously laid out to investors. But raising previously released expectations is something else altogether — a sign the future will be better than expected. It’s usually a benefit to the stock price, too. The share price is the present value of future cash flows. When an estimate for future cash flows takes a sudden jump, that changes the financial model used to calculate the share price.
Consumers aren’t slowing their spending on live music. In August, concerns arose that a resumption of student loan payments, paused to help people struggling during the pandemic, would take a bite out of pocketbooks and cause music fans to pull back on the record amounts they were spending on live entertainment. Three months later, there is no indication that consumers are slowing down, according to Live Nation. “We’re seeing no sign of weaknesses,” said president and CFO Joe Berchtold, noting that Ticketmaster’s October sales in North American were up double-digits year over year. “We’re not seeing any pullback in any way from a club to a stadium tour from Milan to Argentina right now,” added president and CEO Michael Rapino.
SM Entertainment has big plans for its new publishing subsidiary, Kreation Music Rights. The K-pop stalwart has been “aggressively recruiting global writers” and plans to have 80 of them under contract this year, CEO Jang Cheol Hyuk said during the Nov. 8 earnings call. SM Entertainment is pursuing collaborations with both domestic and international publishers and plans to recruit foreign writers “who wish to advance into K-pop by establishing overseas subsidiaries,” Jiang said.
Radio advertising continues to struggle — but the clouds may be starting to part. iHeartMedia’s October revenues were down 8% and the company expects its fourth-quarter revenue excluding political revenue to be down in the mid-single digit percent year over year. The fourth quarter will be iHeartMedia’s strongest quarter of the year “but will be weaker than we originally anticipated due to some dampening of advertising demand which coincided with the uncertainty caused by the recent geopolitical events,” CEO Bob Pittman said during Thursday’s earnings call. That said, iHeartMedia’s digital business “is sort of in recovery mode,” said Pittman, and the company is “seeing the pieces falling into place” for radio’s recovery as most advertisers expect to be “back in growth mode…and spending to support that” in 2024.
The market for catalog acquisitions isn’t slowing down. Reservoir Media CEO Golnar Khosrowshahi said catalog prices aren’t contracting despite higher interest rates. “We’re still seeing a lot of demand for assets and continued infusion of new capital within the competitive set,” she said during Tuesday’s earnings call. “And that is certainly fueling the demand. The pipeline is robust. And it ranges in size from large to a lot of smaller deals.” Reservoir Media hasn’t been suffering from sticker shock, though. Acquisitions in the Middle East-North Africa market — such as some catalog of Saudi Arabian label Mashrex in June — provide the company with good value, Khosrowshahi added. “If we’re looking at a market here that is somewhat saturated with a lot of capital in the marketplace, and we’re able to execute [deals in MENA] at these lower multiples, that makes it just that much more attractive to us.”
Reservoir Media reported Tuesday (Nov. 7) that revenue grew by 15% year-over-year to $38.4 million for the second quarter of fiscal 2024, ending Sept. 30, 2023. During the quarter, the independent music company acquired new catalogs like Joe Walsh, Latin music icon Rudy Perez and country writer Brent Maher as well as continued expansion in its Arabic music catalog through its partnership with PopArabia — contributing to its inorganic growth.
This quarter’s rise in revenue, up from $33.3 million in Q2 of fiscal 2023, was mostly thanks to growth in its recorded music division, which was up 22% from last year’s second quarter, and publishing, which was up 8%. Reservoir notes that the growth in recorded music is largely driven by Chrysalis Music (acquired in 2019) and Tommy Boy (acquired in 2021) and partially offset by lower synchronization and film/tv licensing revenue, likely hindered by the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes.
Chrysalis’ sprawling catalog of masters includes “Dancing With Myself” by Generation X and “Nothing Compares 2 U” by Sinead O’Connor, whose catalog saw a 2,885% spike in listenership after her death earlier this quarter. Tommy Boy is home to some of hip-hop’s most pioneering players, including De La Soul, the trio that Reservoir ushered on to streaming services for the first time during Q4 of fiscal year 2023 to a solid monetary boost.
In the publishing sector of their business, Reservoir’s revenue reached $25.9 million, compared to $24.1 million in last fiscal year’s second quarter. The gain was a product of strong results in performance and mechanical revenue in particular. Performance monies were up 47% YoY and mechanical was up 25% YoY. These wins, however, were offset by changes with the Copyright Royalty Board — which regulates publishing royalty rates in the U.S. — Reservoir says, leading to a decrease in digital by $2.1 million which was recognized in the prior year quarter related to the newly affirmed royalty rates for the 2018-2022 period.
The company also signed a handful of award-winning frontline songwriters in the past quarter, including Steph Jones, Rob Ragosta, Cam Becker, Josh Record, and Wé Ani.
Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), a closely watched metric of profitability, was up 24% this quarter to $15.9 million.
Founder and CEO, Golnar Khosrowshahi, says the company is confident in its position, both in the U.S. and emerging markets “We are encouraged by the growing opportunities internationally and welcome recent additions of El Sawareekh and RE Media expanding our presence in the emerging markets,” she says. “We will continue to pursue acquisitions in the U.S. and across the globe, and we have the right team and strategy to close accretive deals enhancing the portfolio and building long term value for the business and our shareholders.”
Jim Heindlmeyer, CFO, says that, as a result of the company’s “consistent progress against our strategic growth plan demonstrates the resilience of our business model and ongoing tailwinds from the growing music industry,” Reservoir is raising both its revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2024. “We are pleased to announce another quarter of strong performance, driven by meaningful top-line growth in both business segments,” he says.
The company’s outlook for fiscal 2024:
Revenue is anticipated to be $133 million-$137 million for the year ending March 31, 2024, with 10% growth at midpoint
Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $50 million-$52 million with 10% growth at midpoint
Apple reported a blowout quarterly earnings report, with its serviced division (which includes Apple TV+, Apple Music and other media-related offerings) hitting another new record with $22.3 billion in revenue.
That was up from $19.2 billion a year ago, and from $21.2 billion in its last quarter.
In total, Apple delivered revenues of $89.5 billion in its fiscal Q4, with profits of $23 billion, reflecting strong demand for its iPhone line.
“Today Apple is pleased to report a September quarter revenue record for iPhone and an all-time revenue record in Services,” said Tim Cook, Apple’s CEO, in a statement. “We now have our strongest lineup of products ever heading into the holiday season, including the iPhone 15 lineup and our first carbon neutral Apple Watch models, a major milestone in our efforts to make all Apple products carbon neutral by 2030.”
Apple is seeking to improve its revenues and margins in its services business, raising prices on Apple TV+ and other subscription offerings last month. Apple TV+ now costs $9.99 per month, though it is also included in the Apple One subscription bundle, which includes products like Apple Arcade, Apple News, and extra cloud storage.
“We achieved all time revenue records across App Store, advertising, Apple Care, iCloud, payment services and video, as well as the September quarter revenue record on Apple Music,” Cook added on the earnings call.
As for Apple TV+, Cook touted Martin Scorsese’s new movie Killers of the Flower Moon, and noted the awards that ths ervice has garnered.
“We’re telling impactful stories that inspire imagination and stir the soul,” Cook said. “Making movies that make a difference is also at the heart of Apple TV+, and we were thrilled to produce Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, a powerful work of cinema that premiered in theaters around the world last month.”
Apple CFO Luca Maestri added on the call that Apple’s services division now has “well more than one billion” subscribers.
Also on the call, Cook confirmed that the company is investing significantly in generative artificial intelligence: “Obviously we have work going on, I’m not going to get into details about what it is because as you know, we don’t we really don’t do that,” Cook said in response to a question from an analyst. “But you can bet that we’re investing, we’re investing quite a bit. We’re going to do it responsibly. And you will see product advancements over time where those technologies are at the heart of them.”
This article was originally published by The Hollywood Reporter.
Kobalt, the digital-focused publishing administration company, has teamed up with investment funds managed by Morgan Stanley Tactical Value to invest more than $700 million into music IP in the next few years. The partnership will see Kobalt managing the creative, sync, licensing, administration and investment services for the copyrights that are purchased.
The deal, which was advised by Goldman Sachs, marks Kobalt’s return to managing investment for outside capital. Previously, Kobalt had two funds it worked with under Kobalt Capital, its investment management arm, both of which were sold in recent years. Kobalt’s first fund contained over 33,000 songs, including songs recorded by Lindsey Buckingham, Steve Winwood, the B52’s, 50 Cent, George Benson, Bonnie McKee, Nelly and Skrillex. It sold to Hipgnosis Songs Fund in late 2020 for a price tag of $323 million or 18.3 times the net publishers share, and it realized a $20 million gain for Kobalt. While it was the biggest sale for Kobalt at the time, the first fund represented less than 30% of Kobalt’s IP holdings at the time.
The second fund, Kobalt Music Royalty Fund II, sold to an investment group comprising of KKR and Dundee Partners the following year for $1.1 billion. To manage the investments of the royalty fund as well as other IP previously acquired by KKR, the partners formed a platform Chord Music Partners, which tapped Kobalt Music Publishing to continue to handle publishing administration for the works. The fund is believed to have included the SONGS publishing catalog, Insieme Music catalog, which it acquired from Glassnote, and the David Hodges catalog.
Since that sale, Kobalt has not worked with outside money for catalog acquisition.
Outside of Kobalt Capital, the publishing administrator, helmed by chief executive Laurent Hubert, has made a number of other major changes in its business. In 2021, it also sold off AWAL, the artist services company and distributor to some of music’s most successful independent talent, and its neighboring rights operations to Sony. In September 2022, following reports of its first-ever profitable year, Kobalt sold a majority stake to Francisco Partners.
“Kobalt is a pioneer in investing in music, increasing the value of copyrights, and creating music as a viable asset class,” says Hubert. “Morgan Stanley Tactical Value’s trust in Kobalt is a testament to our platform and leadership in the music industry. We are proud to form this unique partnership.”
“Morgan Stanley Tactical Value has profound respect for songwriters and the immense value of their art,” said Cameron Smalls, managing director, Morgan Stanley Tactical Value. “We are thrilled to partner with the leading creator-first publisher that is a pioneer in maximizing royalty collections for songwriters and rightsholders. Together with Kobalt’s infrastructure and deep commitment to bettering the music industry, we are excited about our partnership and the opportunities ahead.”
Shares of K-pop companies sank this week following news that a member of K-pop ground EXO is leaving SM Entertainment for a different agency. According to reports, D.O. will leave SM Entertainment for a new agency being established by his longtime manager. D.O.’s contract expires in early November, SM Entertainment said in a statement, and the artist “will continue with his EXO activities with SM” but pursue acting and other activities through the new agency.
SM Entertainment shares fell 9% to 113,400 won ($83.93). Shares of YG Entertainment, home of girl group BLACKPINK, dropped 9.3% to 53,700 won ($39.74). Shares of JYP Entertainment, home of Stray Kids and Twice, plummeted 11.1% to 100,900 won ($74.67). HYBE, home to BTS and Tomorrow X Together, fell 8.2% to 224,500 won ($166.15). Shares of Kakao Corp. dropped 9.6% to 39,050 won ($28.90). Kakao and its subsidiary Kakao Entertainment own 40% of SM Entertainment’s common stock. Earlier this year, Kakao Entertainment formed a North American joint venture with SM Entertainment.
With all K-pop stocks moving in synch, investors appear to be concerned that the established agencies could be threatened by upstarts. Because Korean companies have far smaller rosters than publicly traded Western music companies such as Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group and Believe, any one departure can have an outsized impact. When BTS announced it planned to go on hiatus, HYBE’s share price dropped nearly 25% the following day.
Separately, the chief investment officer of Kakao, Bae Jae-hyun, was charged with manipulating SM Entertainment’s stock price in connection with Kakao’s bidding war against HYBE over SM Entertainment in the first quarter of the year. According to Bloomberg, the executive was arrested Thursday for buying 240 billion won ($178 million) worth of SM Entertainment shares in an effort to disrupt HYBE’s tender offer.
Despite the week’s heavy losses, K-pop stocks are among the best performing music stocks in 2023. Through Friday, HYBE, SM Entertainment, YG Entertainment and JYP Entertainment have gained an average of 37.1% year to date. JYP Entertainment leads the four companies with a year-to-date improvement of 48.8%.
The 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index fell 3.1% to 1,313.44, lowering its year-to-date gain to 12.5%. It was the biggest one-week drop for the index since July and just the seventh time this year the index dropped by more than 3% in a week. Losses were widespread and only four of the 21 stocks posted gains.
Stocks generally had a miserable week. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite index fell 3.2% and the S&P 500 declined 2.4%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 dropped 2.6%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index sank 3.3%. As the first wave of companies released third-quarter earnings this week, one of the standouts was Netflix. The streaming video giant gained 16.1% on Thursday after announcing it added 9 million subscribers in the quarter and will raise prices in the U.S., U.K. and France.
Anghami was the index’s greatest gainer for the second straight week after increasing 16.6% to $0.96. Last week, shares of the Abu Dhabi-based music streamer jumped 18% after the company received a written notification from the Nasdaq Stock Market on Oct. 12 regarding its closing share price falling below $1.00 for the previous 30 days. On Tuesday, Anghami issued a press release to reveal the Nasdaq Stock Market issued a written notification notifying the company it is not in compliance with the exchange’s requirement that listed companies maintain a minimum market value of $15 million. Anghami fell below the $15 million threshold from Aug. 29 to Oct. 10. Anghami has until April 8, 2024, to regain compliance.
Hipgnosis Songs Fund gained 4.9% to 0.775 GBP ($0.94) this week despite dropping 9.3% on Monday following news the company canceled a planned dividend payment. As the week progressed, the London Stock Exchange-listed company’s stock price steadily increased and was helped by the board of director’s announcement on Thursday of a strategic review to help calm investors’ nerves. After Monday’s decline, the share price rose 15.6% through Friday (Oct. 20) to reach its highest closing price since Oct. 3. At the company’s annual meeting on Oct. 26, shareholders will vote to approve a $440 million catalog sale intended to reduce the share price’s discount to Hipgnosis Songs Fund’s net asset value. Shareholders will also vote on a continuation resolution.
