Chart Beat
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the Billboard Hot 100 dated Oct. 12, we look at a few threats to the long-established throne of Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” including a new star team-up and an established pop megahit with a new official video.
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Shaboozey, “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” (American Dogwood/EMPIRE/Magnolia Music): It’s crazy to remember that a few months ago, it seemed like Shaboozey would need a little luck on his side to even steal a week at No. 1, considering the crowded pack of songs his “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” had to get past and the double-digit-week climb in consumption it needed to scale first. Now, not only is the song the year’s longest-reigning No. 1, but it’s gone twice as long on top as any other previous Hot 100-topper – and it may not be done for a while yet.
Despite being nearly half a year old at this point – this chart week (dated Oct. 5) marks its 24th week on the Hot 100 — “A Bar Song” remains in the top two in all three component charts, leading Streaming Songs and Radio Songs and ranking at No. 2 on Digital Song Sales. The song is trending towards another week atop Radio Songs next frame – which would already be its 10th week at pole position there – as it remains top five across Country Airplay, Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay.
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Is it time to start thinking about the chances “A Bar Song” has of becoming the longest-reigning Hot 100 No. 1 this decade – or even all time? It still needs another four weeks to tie Morgan Wallen’s “Last Night” (16 weeks, 2023) for the former, and then three weeks on top of that to tie Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” (19 weeks, 2019). A whole lot can happen between now and then, and the song’s weekly metrics are hardly on a historically unbeatable level this deep into its run – but clearly, unless the bottom really starts to fall out on Shaboozey’s crossover smash, another song is gonna have to really rise up and take the top spot from it, rather than hoping for natural statistical erosion to end its run.
Billie Eilish, “Birds of a Feather” (Darkroom/Interscope/ICLG): Billie Eilish already has her biggest hit in years with “Birds of a Feather,” but next week the top five hit (which rests at No. 6 this week) should get a bump from its new official music video, which features a gravity-defying Eilish and which she dropped last Friday (Sept. 27). As one of the most celebrated music video artists of this era, the clip naturally has gotten a ton of attention, and remains No. 1 on YouTube’s Trending Music rankings five days after its release.
The video could provide enough of a boost to help the previously No. 5-peaking hit reach a new high on the Hot 100. It’s gonna need to be a particularly big one to help the song unseat Shaboozey, however – the song ranks at No. 5 on both Streaming Songs and Radio Songs this week, and will likely remain at a deficit on the latter chart next week (and perhaps beyond), having already topped Pop Airplay (and still climbing Adult Pop Airplay) but lacking the cross-genre base support that “A Bar Song” has on country radio. (Eilish has previously found success on Rock & Alternative Airplay, but “Birds” is not being promoted to those formats.)
The Weeknd & Playboi Carti, “Timeless” (XO/Republic): Both The Weeknd and Playboi Carti had top 20 debuts on the Hot 100 last week — “Dancing in the Flames” (No. 14) and “All Red” (No. 15), respectively – so how high could they get by teaming up? We’ll see shortly, but they’ll have a hell of a streaming start: five days after its release, their “Timeless” still sits atop both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart and Apple Music’s realtime chart.
The collab is in play to unseat “A Bar Song” atop Streaming Songs, but it will need to really trounce the song in streaming numbers to have a shot of making up for the gap in radio play between the two. “Timeless” already has amassed three million in airplay audience from R&B/hip-hop and rhythmic radio in its first four days of release, according to Luminate, but that’s still a small fraction of the weekly reach of a cross-format super-smash like “A Bar Song” — and “Timeless” also appears to be well behind “Bar” in song sales, too, as the latter currently ranks at No. 2 on the iTunes real-time chart while the former is outside the top 40.
IN THE MIX
Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile” (Streamline/Interscope/Atlantic/ICLG): When Gaga announced a new Joker: Folie a Deux-inspired album of pop standard covers mixed with a couple classic-sounding new songs, it seemed a no-brainer that her retro-leaning (and Joker-y titled) new hit with Bruno Mars, “Die With a Smile,” would be included on the set. But “Smile” remains a standalone single, so any bump it gets from the Friday release of her new Harlequin LP will have to be in terms of spillover interest. Regardless of any streaming gains, it does continue climbing on radio this week, moving up the top 10 on Adult Contemporary and the top 20 on Pop Airplay and Adult Pop Airplay – and perhaps the song will receive more interest still after the release of the Gaga-starring Joker movie this Friday (Oct. 4).
Shed Seven are on the brink of securing their second U.K. No. 1 album of 2024 as their latest release, Liquid Gold, pulls ahead in this week’s fiercely competitive race for the top of the U.K. Official Albums Chart.
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The U.K. rockers have widened their lead to 2,700 chart units over Bring Me The Horizon and their album POST HUMAN: NeX GEn, according to the midweek blast from the U.K. Official Charts Company.
Liquid Gold, which marks Shed Seven’s seventh studio album, has been a hit with fans, driving both physical sales and downloads. Their creative promotion, including limited edition CDs styled like retro concert tickets, has helped push them to the top.
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Currently the best-selling and most-downloaded album of the week, the band are looking to repeat the chart success they achieved earlier this year with A Matter of Time, which also topped the U.K. Albums Chart. If they hold on, this will be the band’s second No. 1 album in just 10 months.
However, Bring Me The Horizon’s POST HUMAN: NeX GEn isn’t out of the running just yet. Though it trails in physical sales, the Sheffield band is performing exceptionally well on streaming platforms, where they’re outpacing Shed Seven. The album, which is tracking for a new peak at No. 2, initially debuted at No. 5 back in July but has gained significant traction after its release on vinyl and other physical formats this week.
In third place is Nines’ new album Quit While You’re Ahead, making an impressive debut as the rapper looks to land another Top 3 hit after his 2023 release, Crop Circle 2, which peaked at No. 2.
Close behind, Sabrina Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet, a former chart-topper, is sitting comfortably at No. 4 midweek, thanks to her strong streaming numbers, and could move higher as the week progresses.
Further down the chart, Mercury Prize winners Ezra Collective are holding firm at No. 6 with their jazz-influenced Dance, No One’s Watching, which is on track to become their first-ever U.K. Top 10 album. Also eyeing a Top 10 debut is Smitten, the latest release from Pale Waves, currently positioned at No. 7.
Elsewhere in the Top 10, Ed Sheeran makes a mark with his newly released + – = ÷ x Tour Collection, entering at No. 5, while Maxïmo Park’s Stream of Life is on course to debut at No. 9.
Shed Seven’s lead remains strong, but with streaming continuing to dominate the charts, the race for No. 1 is far from over. Stay tuned until the final chart positions are confirmed this Friday.
Five weeks after Incómodo debuted at No. 2 on Billboard’s Top Latin Albums chart — and Regional Mexican Albums — Tito Double P celebrates his first No. 1 on any album ranking as his first studio album rises 2-1 to lead the Oct. 5-dated list.
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Tito Double P’s 21-track effort dethrones label mate and cousin, Peso Pluma’s Éxodo from its 12-week domination, encompassing the majority of its chart run. Of the 15 weeks Peso’s fourth album album has been on the chart, it’s only missed No. 1 three times – and two of those weeks were at No. 2.
Incómodo, released on Double P Records, which Peso Pluma and George Prajin co-founded in 2023, lands at the summit on Top Latin Albums with 26,000 equivalent album units earned during the Sept. 20-26 tracking week in the U.S., according to Luminate: that’s a 2% gain from the prior week. That weekly unit sum equals to 38.8 million official U.S. streams for the songs on the album.
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“Wow, I’m so honored,” the Mexican singer-songwriter told Billboard of the album’s debut. “I didn’t expect this but I’m so grateful that the fans are embracing my project like this.”
Top Latin Albums ranks the week’s most popular Latin albums by multi-metric consumption as measured in equivalent album units. Each unit equals one album sale, 10 individual tracks sold from an album, or 3,750 ad-supported or 1,250 paid/subscription on-demand official audio and video streams for a song on the album.
Incómodo also advances 2-1 on Regional Mexican Albums, for Tito’s first ruler there. Plus, one song from the album debuts on Latin Streaming Songs: “Escápate,” with Chino Pacas, arrives at No. 15 with 3.7 million on-demand official U.S. clicks, up 14%.
Omar Courtz Makes Billboard Album Charts Debut: Elsewhere, Puerto Rican Omar Courtz visits Top Latin Albums for the first time with Primera Musa, his maiden studio album which opens at No. 8 with 11,000 equivalent album units. Streaming contributes most of the 17-track effort’s first week sum in the U.S., equating to 15.4 million official streams.
It’s the first top 10 on an album chart for Courtz, who scored his first top 10 on a Billboard chart through the No. 7-peaking “Beachy,” with Daddy Yankee, on Latin Rhythm Airplay in July 2023.
Beyond its top 10 start on Top Latin Albums, Primera Musa also opens at No. 2 on Latin Rhythm Albums, Courtz’s highest-charting entry across all charts.
Tito Double P, Peso Pluma & Omar Courtz will speak at Latin Music Week Oct. 14-18 at the Fillmore Miami Beach. To register, please visit Billboardlatinmusicweek.com.
Hey! Say! JUMP‘s “UMP” shoots to No. 1 on the Billboard Japan Hot 100, dated Oct. 2, selling 221,762 CDs in its first week.
The lyrics for the eight-member group’s 34th single was written by sumika’s Kenta Kataoka. The track was powered by physical sales (No. 1) and radio airplay (No. 6) and hits No. 1, becoming the group’s 31st chart-topper. The last time Hey! Say! JUMP ruled the Japan Hot 100 was in May 2022, with its single “a r e a.”
Mrs. GREEN APPLE’s “Lilac” holds at No. 2. About six months have passed since the Oblivion Battery opener was released, and while the track is slowing down in most metrics of the chart’s methodology, radio is up by about 1.4 times this week, rising from outside the top 100 to No. 68. The former No. 1 hit continues to dominate streaming (15 consecutive weeks) and video views (three consecutive weeks). The three-man pop band also has another song in the top 10 this week, with “Dance Hall” jumping 20-9.
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back number’s “to new lovers” also holds at No. 3 this week. The final episode of the drama series the song serves as the theme — Umi no Hajimari — aired during the chart week and streaming increased slightly, while other metrics decreased slightly. The former No. 1 song has been charting for eleven weeks and has spent four straight weeks in the top 10.
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Kocchinokento’s “Hai Yorokonde” rises 7-4. Most likely due to the music producer’s appearance on CDTV Live! Live! on Sept. 23, downloads are up 112%, streaming up 101%, and radio up 154% from the week before. The viral hit has remained in the top 10 for 11 straight weeks, coming in at No. 3 for downloads, No. 8 for streaming, No. 3 for videos, and No. 19 for karaoke this week. The track also made headlines recently when the accompanying music video reached 100 million views on Monday (Sept. 30). The singer-songwriter is set to make his second appearance on CDTV Live! Live! on the show airing Oct. 7.
Creepy Nuts’ “Bling-Bang-Bang-Born” rises a notch to No. 5. Radio for the MASHLE Season 2 opener is up 128% and the former No. 1 mega-hit has now been in the top 10 for 37 consecutive weeks.
Kenshi Yonezu’s “Sayonara, Mata Itsuka!” is back in the top 10, after the full version of the animated opening sequence of the highly acclaimed biographical legal drama series it serves as the theme dropped ahead of the final episode last week. All metrics increased from the week before: downloads is at 142%, streaming 105%, radio 480%, video 162%, and karaoke 106% week-over-week.
Following the Sept. 18 premiere of Agatha All Along, music from the Disney+ series stirs up a debut on Billboard’s Digital Song Sales chart.
“The Ballad of the Witches’ Road (Sacred Chant)” – billed as by Kathryn Hahn, Sasheer Zamata, Ali Ahn, Patti LuPone, Debra Jo Rupp and the Agatha All Along cast – enters the chart (dated Oct. 5) at No. 22. The song, on Marvel/Hollywood Records, sold 2,000 downloads in the United States in the Sept. 20-26 tracking week, according to Luminate.
Hahn stars in Agatha All Along as Agatha Harkness, a neighborhood witch who was introduced on Disney+’s WandaVision. In the new series, Harkness loses her powers after a teen helps break her free from a “distorted spell,” per the show’s official description, and sets out on a “magical gauntlet of trials” in an attempt to return them.
In addition to Hahn, Zamata, Ahn, LuPone and Rupp, Agatha All Along stars Paul Adelstein, Miles Gutierrez-Riley, Joe Locke, Okwui Okpokwasili and Aubrey Plaza.
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Music tied to the series first enchanted Billboard charts in 2021. That March, “Agatha All Along,” a 62-second track from WandaVision, logged a week at No. 36 on Digital Song Sales. The song is credited to Hahn, Robert Lopez, Eric Bradley, Greg Whipple, Jasper Randall and Gerald White, and became the first Billboard chart entry for all six vocalists.
Zamata, Ahn and Rupp each earn their first Billboard chart appearance with “The Ballad of the Witches’ Road.” Broadway legend LuPone, whose accolades include two Tony Awards, has logged two entries on the Heatseekers Albums chart: Patti LuPone at Les Mouches (No. 25 peak, 2008) and Far Away Places: Live at 54 Below (No. 44, 2013). She had last reached a ranking with “Let Us Adore You”; billed to the Steven Universe Cast featuring LuPone, Christine Ebersol, Lisa Hannigan and Sarah Stiles, it hit No. 15 on Kid Digital Song Sales in 2019.
Keith Urban notches his 11th top 10 on Top Country Albums as his new LP High debuts at No. 10 on the Oct. 5-dated ranking with 17,000 equivalent album units earned in the United States Sept. 20-26, according to Luminate. Explore Explore See latest videos, charts and news See latest videos, charts and news The […]
Caleb & John’s “Somebody Like Me,” featuring CAIN, climbs to No. 1 on Billboard’s Christian Airplay and Christian AC Airplay charts (dated Oct. 5). It leads the former with 5.4 million audience impressions Sept. 20-26, according to Luminate. The duo of Caleb Crino and John Secker earns its first chart-topper with its second entry. “Hallelujah […]
Alex Warren has already forged a successful career as a popular YouTube creator and member of the Hype House TikTok collective, and now he’s also a Billboard Hot 100-charting artist.
Warren makes his first appearance on the Hot 100 (dated Oct. 5) with his new single “Burning Down.” Released Sept. 20 on Atlantic Records, the song debuts at No. 76 with 6.6 million official U.S. streams and 3,000 downloads sold through Sept. 26, according to Luminate.
The song’s first-week reception can be partly attributed to interaction on TikTok, where Warren teased it leading up to its official release. To date, the song has soundtracked over 90,000 clips on the platform. Warren boasts over 16 million TikTok followers and his videos have amassed over a billion likes.
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While “Burning Down” becomes Warren’s first Hot 100 hit, he has been climbing charts with another single: “Carry You Home” returns to its No. 36 high on Pop Airplay and places at No. 32 on Adult Pop Airplay, after reaching No. 27. It has also reached No. 19 on Hot Rock & Alternative Songs.
Warren earned his first overall chart entry in April with “Save You a Seat.” The track debuted at its No. 11 high on the Digital Song Sales chart date April 13, as Warren bowed on Emerging Artists; he bounds to a new No. 2 best on the latest list.
“Carry You Home” and “Save You a Seat” have also both benefitted from exposure on TikTok. The latter has been used in over 144,000 TikToks and the former in over 20,000.
Both songs, along with “Burning Down,” appear on Warren’s debut studio album, You’ll Be Alright, Kid (Chapter 1), released Sept. 27.
Warren signed to Atlantic in August 2022. “Growing up with the cards I was dealt, I never thought pursuing music would be a possibility,” he told Billboard at the time. “I’ve always dreamed of working with a record label and have admired Atlantic’s roster of artists for so long. I remember my first meeting with Atlantic so clearly because they immediately believed in what I had to say. They wanted to guide me and surround me with an experienced team to take my music to the next level and I’m so excited to do just that.”
Jordan Adetunji’s viral hit “Kehlani” completes the transition to a full-fledged radio success as the single crowns Billboard’s Rhythmic Airplay chart dated Oct. 4. The track ascends from No. 3 after an 18% surge in plays that made it the most-played song on U.S. monitored rhythmic radio stations in the week ending Sept. 26, according to Luminate.
The new champ, released on Indigo Kid/300/3EE, takes over from Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us,” after the latter’s nonconsecutive 12-week command, including the last three weeks straight. It falls to No. 2 with a 2% decline in plays.
Twenty-five-year-old Jordan Adetunji, who is based in Belfast, Ireland, lands his first No. 1 on a Billboard radio chart. Released in May, “Kehlani,” which references and is named after the American R&B singer, went viral this summer and topped the TikTok Billboard Top 50 chart for two weeks in August. The same month, its titular artist hopped on a remix, which came with a new music video. Adding to his breakthrough season, Adetunji was named Billboard’s R&B/Hip-Hop Rookie of the Month in July.
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Kehlani, notably, has reached a No. 2 career high on Rhythmic Airplay on two separate occasions. They reached a runner-up best as a guest on Cardi B’s “Ring” in 2018 and returned to the peak with “Beautiful Lies,” a collaboration with Yung Bleu, in 2022. While the remix “Kehlani” supports at radio, Adetunji remains the only credited artist on the chart as his solo version drives the majority of the airplay.
Elsewhere, “Kehlani” nears the top slot on the Mainstream R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay chart, where it climbs from No. 3 to the runner-up rank. The advance occurs through an 11% gain in plays at the format in the tracking week compared with the prior one, with the song securing the weekly Greatest Gainer honor for the largest increase in plays among the chart’s 40 titles. Beyond that, “Kehlani” repeats at its No. 3 high on the audience-based R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay chart, where it registered 14 million in weekly listenership at the format, up 6% from the previous week.
Airplay gains continue across other charts, too. “Kehlani” inches 3-2 on Rap Airplay after a 10% boost in audience, prompting another Greatest Gainer award. The improved performance across multiple formats helps the tune jumps 25-19 on the all-genre Radio Songs chart. There, it captures 26 million in total audience, a 12% hike from the week before.
Future is back with another huge week on Billboard’s charts. His new project, Mixtape Pluto, debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 (dated Oct. 5) with 129,00 equivalent album units earned in the United States in its opening week (Sept. 20-26), according to Luminate, and all 17 of its songs debut on the Billboard […]