Chart Beat
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Beyoncé released Renaissance, her seventh solo studio album, in July 2022 to rapturous acclaim and No. 1 status on the Billboard 200 and, for lead single “Break My Soul,” No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. But unlike 2016’s Lemonade and 2013’s Beyoncé, there were no concerts and no televised performances — not even a music video.
But six months later, days ahead of a potentially pivotal Grammy ceremony (Feb. 5) where she’s the year’s leading nominee, Beyoncé has announced the Renaissance world tour. It’s bound to be one of the year’s biggest concert events, aiming to be her fourth tour to gross more than $200 million based on forecasts estimated by Billboard Boxscore. In fact, the tour could easily sail past the $275 million mark. The all-stadium trek is currently scheduled to play 41 shows in 10 countries from May 10 through September 27.
A Beyoncé tour used to be a given every couple of years, but the Renaissance world tour will launch seven years after her last solo outing, 2016’s The Formation World Tour. That was her first solo trek in stadiums, though neither the show’s stellar reviews nor fans’ insatiable demand hinted at her rookie status. The tour earned $256.1 million and sold 2.2 million tickets, according to figures reported to Billboard Boxscore, finishing atop Billboard’s year-end Top Tours chart.
In the years since, Beyoncé mounted On the Run II, her second stadium tour alongside Jay-Z following 2014’s On the Run. The stadium trek came close to Beyoncé’s solo high mark but finished with $253.5 million and 2.2 million tickets — coming within 1% of Formation’s gross and 3% of its attendance despite the doubled-up star-power. The strength of Beyoncé’s solo tour among her entire live history perhaps speaks to her unique draw as one of the century’s most singular live entertainers.
The Formation World Tour marked a 21% improvement upon the $212 million take of 2013-14’s The Mrs. Carter Show World Tour, which spanned 126 dates in arenas.
This summer’s Renaissance world tour was announced with 15 shows in Europe in May and June, followed by 26 shows in the U.S. and Canada.
That 41-show sum is slightly shorter than The Formation World Tour’s 49 and On the Run II Tour’s 48. But while Renaissance could trail her previous outings in cumulative gross because of a more compact schedule, that scenario is unlikely considering the industry’s plumped-up ticketing.
In efforts to redirect second-and-third-party ticket sales to the artist, dynamic pricing, platinum ticketing and fan-to-fan re-sale have sent grosses soaring in the post-pandemic era. Beyoncé’s 2016 and 2018 tours averaged $114 and $116 per ticket, but that number will likely be far closer to, if not more than, $200 in 2023.
And like with Billboard’s early projections for Taylor Swift and Madonna, Beyoncé’s initial routing announcement may just be the singer playing coy. Per the first announced round of shows, London is the only market with more than one show, while previous Beyoncé tours also doubled up in New York, Chicago, Paris, Houston and more. More dates could be announced in some of the routing’s open spaces due to expectedly high demand. As the routing stands at press time, there are often four or five days between shows, with long stretches between May 30 (London) and June 8 (Barcelona), and September 2 and 11 (Inglewood, Calif. and Vancouver).
The continental splits for Formation and OTR2 were similar to that of Renaissance, with slightly more than a third of the entire tour in Europe and the other 60-65% in North America. Grosses and attendance lined up, too — $86.9 million and 867,000 tickets in Europe on Formation and $87 million and 871,000 tickets on OTR2, versus $169.1 million and 1.4 million tickets in North America on Formation and $166.5 million and 1.3 million on OTR2.
Given her consistent sell-out stadium business and an expected 30%-plus lift on ticket prices, the Renaissance world tour could be earning $6.8-$7.5 million per show. At the low end of that projection, with no additional shows, total gross would be heading for a personal-best $275 million. With just a few extra shows, at the top of that range, she’d notch her first $300 million tour.
Across her career, Beyoncé has grossed $767.3 million and sold 8.9 million tickets across 375 shows, including those with Jay-Z and the Verizon Ladies First Tour, a co-headline run with Missy Elliott and Alicia Keys in 2004. That means that the Renaissance world tour is setting her up to be one of three women to potentially cross the billion-dollar mark this year. Swift’s Eras Tour is sure to push her over the edge, while P!nk’s Summer Carnival Tour could do the trick as well.
Renaissance was Beyoncé’s seventh No. 1 album, while “Break My Soul” marked her eighth No. 1 song. When album cut “Cuff It” shot to No. 10 on the Hot 100 last month, it became the 21st top 10 Hot 100 song of her solo career. The Renaissance world tour is scheduled to kick off May 10 at Stockholm’s Friends Arena and wrap on September 27 at New Orleans’ Caesars Superdome.
Headlines about Tom Brady today are, understandably, focused on his announced retirement, but a song related to the football GOAT makes its own news with a Billboard chart debut.
“Gonna Be You,” by fellow legendary entertainers Dolly Parton, Belinda Carlisle, Cyndi Lauper, Gloria Estefan and Debbie Harry – and written by Diane Warren – enters Billboard’s Digital Song Sales chart (dated Feb. 4) at No. 42 with 2,000 downloads sold from its Jan. 20 release through Jan. 26, according to Luminate.
(The number 42, thus, takes on a more positive tone regarding Brady, after Super Bowl XLII still makes New England Patriots fans wince.)
The song accompanies the movie 80 for Brady, which Brady co-produced and in which he acts. The comedy, whose Los Angeles premiere was held Tuesday, follows four friends – played by acting icons Sally Field, Jane Fonda, Rita Moreno and Lily Tomlin – who travel from Massachusetts to Texas to see the quarterback, then playing for the Patriots, in Super Bowl LI in 2017. (The team’s 34-28 comeback in the game, from a 28-3 deficit, still makes Atlanta Falcons fans wince, although it makes Patriots fans smile.)
“Gonna Be You,” whose official video finds Parton, Carlisle, Lauper and Estefan all sporting Brady’s No. 12 Patriots uniform, marks the latest chart entry for each star. Parton first hit Billboard‘s rankings in 1967 (when “Dumb Blonde” debuted on the Hot Country Songs chart dated that Jan. 21 – six days after the first Super Bowl); Harry, as a member of Blondie, in 1978; Carlisle, with the Go-Go’s, in 1980; Lauper, in 1983; and Estefan, with Miami Sound Machine, in 1984.
Warren, meanwhile, has written nine Billboard Hot 100 No. 1s, among 32 top 10s. Among her catalog of Hot 100 entries are top 40 hits recorded by Carlisle (“I Get Weak,” a No. 2 hit in 1988) and Estefan (“Live for Loving You,” No. 22, 1991). (Warren is currently scaling Adult Contemporary with her first charted title as a credited artist, “Sweet,” with vocals by Jon Batiste and Pentatonix.)
Said Warren ahead of the release of “Gonna Be You,” “Since ’80’ was in the [movie’s] title, I got a crazy idea: Why not get some of the most iconic singers from the ’80s, who are still amazing and always will be, to all sing it?! Everyone I approached said yes and was just as excited as me!”
Blondie boasts four Hot 100 No. 1s, Estefan three, Parton and Lauper two each and Carlisle one, totaling, aptly for Brady, 12.
Singer-songwriter Brandon Lake scores his second No. 1, and first as a lead artist, on Billboard’s streaming-, airplay- and sales-based Hot Christian Songs chart (dated Feb. 4) with “Gratitude.”
The single rebounds for a third week atop Christian Digital Song Sales, up 7% to 2,000 downloads sold Jan. 20-26, according to Luminate. It also drew 1.9 million official U.S streams. On Christian Airplay, the song pushes 13-11 for a new best (4.9 million audience impressions, up 24%).
Lake co-authored “Gratitude” with Dante Bowe and Benjamin Hastings, while Jacob Sooter produced it.
“Every song has a season, and season a song,” Lake tells Billboard. “’Gratitude’ couldn’t more accurately describe everything I want to express to God in this time. There are times where I feel like worshipping and there are times I often don’t, but what can shift any weary soul is a spirit of gratitude. I love that this song not only expresses a heartfelt ‘thank you,’ but commands your soul to wake up and worship. The journey of how this song came to be is a miracle in itself that I’m thankful for.”
Lake previously topped Hot Christian Songs as featured on Elevation Worship’s “Graves Into Gardens,” for two frames in February 2021. It also paced Christian Airplay for a week, awarding Lake his lone leader so far.
Concurrently, Lake charts two additional tracks on Hot Christian Songs. He’s featured on Ryan Ellis’ “Son of David,” at No. 25, and his duet with KB, “Graves,” at No. 44.
Tribbett’s ‘New’ No. 1
On Gospel Airplay, Tye Tribbett notches his fourth No. 1 and third in succession with “New,” which he wrote solely.
The song follows ‘’Anyhow,” which dominated for two weeks in June 2021, and “We Gon’ Be Alright,” which led for a week in September 2020. Tribbett, who hails from Camden, N.J., notched his first leader, among nine top 10s, with “Victory” (with backing group G.A.), which reigned for three weeks beginning in September 2006.
MercyMe Extends Record
MercyMe rolls up its record-padding 19th No. 1 on Billboard’s Christian AC Airplay survey with “Then Christ Came” (up 3% in plays).
The format cornerstone act last led with “Almost Home,” for three frames in April 2020. In between that song and “Then,” the group’s “Say I Won’t” reached No. 3 in May 2021 and “On Our Way,” featuring Sam Wesley, hit No. 9 in February 2022.
MercyMe widens its lead for the most No. 1s since Christian AC Airplay began in 2003 over Jeremy Camp and Casting Crowns, each with 13.
MercyMe banked its first leader with “Word of God Speak,” which dominated for 21 weeks starting in August 2003. It’s the longest-leading No. 1 in the chart’s history, followed by the band’s own “Even If,” which ruled for 19 weeks starting in May 2017.
Gabito Ballesteros, Peso Pluma and Natanael Cano all team up to score their first appearances on the Billboard Hot 100 as “AMG” debuts at No. 92 on the latest Feb. 4-dated chart.
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The song, which the trio released Nov. 24 via Los CT/Rancho Humilde/Worms/Prajin Parlay/Prajin/Warner Latina, arrives almost entirely from its streaming sum: 5.8 million official U.S. streams (up 24%) in the Jan. 20-26 tracking week, according to Luminate.
The track concurrently jumps 15-10 on the multimetric Hot Latin Songs chart, becoming the first top hit for Ballesteros and Pluma, and the second for Cano. “AMG” also ascends 62-50 on the Billboard Global Excl. U.S. chart and 71-50 on the Billboard Global 200.
TikTok has helped grow the song’s profile, as a portion of it has been used in over 160,000 videos on the platform to date. (TikTok does not contribute to Billboard‘s charts.)
Singer-songwriter Ballesteros is new to Billboard’s charts. “AMG” marked his first appearance when it debuted on Hot Latin Songs (Dec. 10). He scored his second entry last week (charts dated Jan. 28), when his collaboration with Junior H, “Vamos Para Arriba,” opened at No. 32 Hot Latin Songs survey — it dips to No. 36 this week.
Peso Pluma first reached a Billboard chart last April when “El Belicón,” with Raul Vega, debuted at No. 50 on Hot Latin Songs (before peaking at No. 46 two weeks later). The singer-songwriter has since charted four additional Hot Latin Songs hits: “Siempre Pendientes,” with Luis R. Conriquez (No. 27 peak in November); “El Gavilán,” with Conriquez and Tony Aguirre (No. 41, December); “Igualito A Mi Apá,” with Fuerza Regida (No. 45, January); and now “AMG.”
“Siempre Pendientes” also became Peso Pluma’s first global chart hit, as it reached No. 155 on Global Excl. U.S. and No. 174 on the Global 200.
At just 21 years old, Cano is already a fairly seasoned hitmaker on Billboard’s charts. The Mexican rapper-singer has tallied 11 entries on Hot Latin Songs, dating to his first, “Soy El Diablo,” with Bad Bunny, in November 2019. Of those, one has climbed to the top 10: “Amor Tumbado” (No. 8, February 2020). He has also charted seven titles on the Top Latin Albums chart, including two top 10s: Corridos Tumbados (No. 4, 2019) and A Mis 20 (No. 9, 2021).
Corridos Tumbados also spent 31 weeks at No. 1 on the Regional Mexican Albums chart. That’s the fourth-longest reign in the chart’s history, after Selena’s Amor Prohibido (97 weeks), Christian Nodal’s Me Dejé Llevar (73) and Eslabon Armado’s Corta Venas (54).
Cano is signed to Republic Records via Rancho Humilde. In May 2022, he signed a publishing deal with Warner Chappell Music. “Nata is a unique talent, who, at such a young age, has already secured his legacy in the industry,” WCM’s president, U.S. Latin & Latin America, Gustavo Menéndez said at the time. “He has an incredible delivery with an uncanny penmanship as a songwriter, no matter the genre.”
Two sets start atop Billboard’s rock album charts dated Feb. 4, as HARDY’s The Mockingbird & the Crow and Måneskin’s Rush! open atop the lists.
HARDY’s Crow, a hybrid between the country and rock genres, debuts at No. 1 on the Top Rock & Alternative Albums, Top Rock Albums and Top Hard Rock Albums tallies with 55,000 equivalent album units earned Jan. 20-26, according to Luminate. Of that sum, 34,000 units are from streaming and 20,000 via album sales.
The former total is the best for any title on Top Hard Rock Albums since it adopted a consumption methodology in 2017, while Crow’s overall unit count is the biggest on the chart since Slipknot’s The End, So Far bowed with 59,000 units (Oct. 15, 2022).
Crow is HARDY’s first No. 1 on each chart, achieved in his first appearance on each (as his previous albums were more fully within the country genre). It’s also his first Top Country Albums ruler, surpassing the No. 4 debut and peak of A Rock in 2020.
On the all-format Billboard 200, Crow bows at No. 4, becoming HARDY’s first top 10. Its predecessor, A Rock, reached No. 24.
Meanwhile, Måneskin’s Rush! starts at No. 1 on the Top Alternative Albums chart with 18,000 units earned. It’s the Italian rockers’ first leader in their first appearance.
The set also begins at Nos. 2, 4 and 4 on the Top Hard Rock Albums, Top Rock & Alternative Albums and Top Rock Albums charts, respectively.
It’s the band’s first top 20 title on the Billboard 200, beginning at No. 18.
Tracks from both new sets concurrently rank on the multimetric Hot Rock & Alternative Songs chart, paced by HARDY’s “Radio Song,” featuring A Day to Remember’s Jeremy McKinnon, at No. 25. In the latest tracking week, “Radio” earned 2.3 million official U.S. streams and sold 1,000 downloads.
Seven songs from HARDY’s Crow appear on Hot Rock & Alternative Songs, with “Radio” followed by “Jack” at No. 27.
Måneskin’s Rush!, meanwhile, boasts an appearance in “The Loneliest,” which lifts 40-34 with 2.3 million radio audience impressions and 1.9 million streams. Prior to the album’s arrival, two cuts included on Rush! reached Hot Rock & Alternative Songs: “Supermodel” (No. 13 peak last July) and “Mammamia” (No. 21, October 2021).
“Loneliest” is the current radio single from Rush!, concurrently charting at its No. 6 best on Alternative Airplay. Crow’s current rock radio single, “Jack,” ranks at its No. 11 high on Mainstream Rock Airplay. The latter’s country single, “Wait in the Truck,” featuring Lainey Wilson, likewise holds the No. 11 spot, its top rank so far, on Country Airplay.
Romeo Santos and Rosalía add new career No. 1s on Billboard’s Tropical Airplay chart as their first collaboration, “El Pañuelo,” rules the Feb. 4-dated ranking.
The song rises 3-1 with 9.9 million audience impressions, an 8% gain, earned in the U.S. in the week ending Jan. 26, according to Luminate.
Rosalía scores her third straight No. 1, and second through a bachata. Thanks to “El Pañuelo,” Santos becomes the fourth artist to accumulate at least 18 No. 1s since Tropical Airplay chart launched in 1994. He joins Marc Anthony, who leads with 35, followed by Victor Manuelle (29), and Prince Royce (22).
The new No. 1 also marks the 10th time a pair-up comprising a female and a male on lead role has reached No. 1 since the chart’s inception. Let’s look back:
Peak Date, Title, Artist, Weeks at No. 1
Aug. 15, 1998, “Corazón Encadenado,” Gisselle & Sergio Vargas, one
June 26, 1999, “No Me Ames,” Jennifer López & Marc Anthony, seven
June 18, 2016, “La Bicicleta,” Carlos Vives & Shakira, one
Dec. 31, 2016, “Olvídame y Pega La Vuelta,” Jennifer López & Marc Anthony, two
April 29, 2017, “Deja Vu,” Prince Royce & Shakira, 11
Oct. 26, 2019, “La Mejor Versión de Mí,” Natti Natasha & Romeo Santos, 15
May 29, 2021, “Víctimas Las Dos,” Victor Manuelle & La India, one
May 28, 2022, “Te Espero,” Prince Royce & Maria Becerra, four
Dec. 3, 2022, “Monotonía,” Shakira & Ozuna, nine
Feb. 4, 2023, “El Pañuelo,” Romeo Santos & Rosalía
Further, Santos also unlocks another achievement on the current chart: “Solo Conmigo,” his latest single, takes the Greatest Gainer award, rising 19-12 with a lofty 310% gain in audience, to 2 million. Plus, “Sin Fin,” with Justin Timberlake, holds at No. 9 for a second week (after its previous No. 1 debut last September), while “Siri,” with Chris Lebron, dips 18-22. All songs are on Santos’ latest album, Formula, Vol. 3, which crowned Tropical Albums for 15 weeks.
Beyond its Tropical Airplay coronation, “El Pañuelo” bests its previous Latin Airplay ranking with a 3-2 jump.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Feb. 11), SZA’s seven-week Billboard 200 No. 1 SOS faces new competition from best-selling K-pop stars TOMORROW X TOGETHER and career-reinventing albums from Sam Smith and Lil Yachty.
TOMORROW X TOGETHER, The Name Chapter: Temptation (Big Hit/Republic): A five-song EP from a Korean pop group that’s yet to notch a Billboard Hot 100 hit might seem like an unlikely challenger to SZA’s continued Billboard 200 domination. But don’t underestimate the selling power of TOMORROW X TOGETHER, the rising quintet that’s already reached the top five of the Billboard 200 albums chart twice this decade (with 2021 LP The Chaos Chapter: Freeze and 2022 EP Minisode 2: Thursday’s Child), thanks a devoted fanbase willing to spend on physical albums – sometimes in multiple variants.
Plenty of those variants are available this week for new EP The Name Chapter: Temptation, with 14 collectible deluxe CD packages — including exclusive versions for Barnes & Noble, Target and the group’s Weverse webstore, and a signed version via its own official U.S. webstore. Interest in those physical copies appears to still be growing: TXT’s label, Big Hit, reported over 2 million pre-orders worldwide for the new EP.
Sam Smith, Gloria (Capitol): Arguably the most-anticipated major pop release of January arrived last Friday (Jan. 27) with longtime top 40 fixture Sam Smith’s Gloria. The album is Smith’s first since 2020’s Love Goes, and comes off the back of the first Hot 100 No. 1 hit of their career in the Kim Petras collab “Unholy.” With massive buzz-building on TikTok, a harder-edged sound and more sexually suggestive lyrics, the single appeared to successfully modernize Smith for the 2020s.
While the ongoing success of “Unholy” will give Gloria a helpful head start on streaming, whether it will lead the album to a greater chart finish than the No. 5-peaking Love Goes remains to be seen. By mid-week, the only Gloria tracks remaining on Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart were “Unholy” and the New Music Friday-leading Calvin Harris and Jessie Reyez collab “I’m Not Here to Make Friends,” while the full set ranks fifth on the iTunes albums sales chart. The album is also available in three vinyl variants — with one a Target exclusive (also available in CD) with two bonus tracks – and in a signed CD via Smith’s webstore.
Lil Yachty, Let’s Start Here (Concrete/Quality Control/Motown): While Atlanta rap star Lil Yachty is coming off his biggest hit of the 2020s in the TikTok-powered “Poland,” the buzzing trap of that 83-second single is hardly indicative of the psychedelic space rock found on his fifth album, Let’s Start Here. The sonic left turn, featuring contributions from renowned alternative artists like Mac DeMarco, Alex G and Foushée, has drawn mixed reviews but heavy online discussion, and may challenge for Yachty’s first top 10 album on the Billboard 200 since 2018’s Lil Boat 2.
IN THE MIX
The Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks, Vol. 45 (Rhino): The latest in the legendary jam band’s Dave’s Picks series, which features live shows selected by Grateful Dead archivist David Lemieux, features a two-date 1977 stop at the Paramount Theater in Portland, Ore. Each of the last five Dave’s Picks have charted in the Nos. 11-15 range on the Billboard 200 and the Dead are still looking for their first top 10 on the chart since In the Dark hit No. 6 in 1987.
Elle King, Come Get Your Wife (RCA): A breakout star in the mid-’10s for jaunty rock crossover hit “Ex’s and Oh’s,” singer-songwriter Elle King decamped to Nashville and embraced country with third album, Come Get Your Wife. So far, so good for King: 2021 Miranda Lambert collab “Drunk (And I Don’t Wanna Go Home),” found on Wife, topped Billboard’s Country Airplay chart and became her first Hot 100 top 40 hit since “Ex’s.”
Tyler Hubbard, Tyler Hubbard (Hubbard House/EMI): As one-half of Florida Georgia Line, Tyler Hubbard was a regular visitor to the top of Billboard’s country charts, and topped the Billboard 200 with the duo’s 2014 sophomore album, Anything Goes. He didn’t need long into his solo career to establish his own chart-topping prowess: His first unaccompanied single, “5 Foot 9,” featured on his self-titled solo debut album, bested Country Airplay last November.
Bob Dylan, Fragments – Time Out of Mind Sessions (1996-1997) (Legacy Records): The Bootleg Series Vol. 17: With the 25th anniversary approaching of Bob Dylan’s album of the year win for Time Out of Mind at the ’98 Grammys, his latest Bootleg Series installment revisits that comeback effort with a remix of the original set and bonus outtakes, alternate versions and live cuts. The set, which originally peaked at No. 10 on the Billboard 200 in 1997, comes in two-CD and five-CD editions, as well as four-LP and 10-LP box sets.
Elton John has made Billboard Boxscore history. His Farewell Yellow Brick Road tour is the highest-grossing concert tour of all time.
As Eric Frankenberg reported on Monday: “According to figures reported to Billboard Boxscore, the Farewell Yellow Brick Road Tour has grossed $817.9 million across 278 shows so far — more than any tour in Boxscore history. Bypassing Ed Sheeran’s The Divide Tour ($776.4 million), it is the first tour in Billboard’s archives to cross the $800 million benchmark.”
Frankenberg adds that Elton owns another Billboard Boxscore record. “Dating back to reports for John’s Ice on Fire Tour (1986), and including his share of co-headline runs with Eric Clapton, James Taylor, Tina Turner and, many times over, Billy Joel, John has grossed $1.863 billion and sold 19.9 million tickets over 1,573 reported shows. That’s the highest career gross and attendance for a solo artist in Boxscore history, having passed Bruce Springsteen and Madonna while on this tour.”
These are remarkable achievements, but then most Billboard readers know that Elton John has been setting Billboard records for decades. He has amassed seven No. 1 albums on the Billboard 200 and nine No. 1 singles on the Billboard Hot 100 (counting his contribution to Dionne & Friends’ 1986 smash “That’s What Friends Are For”). He has topped or climbed high on many other charts as well. In 1974, his funky “Bennie and the Jets” reached No. 15 on Hot Soul Singles, the forerunner of today’s Hot R&B/Hip Hop Songs chart, a rarity for a white pop artist at that time.
Here are 10 times Elton made Billboard history:
After the release of Camilo and Camila Cabello‘s music video for “Ambulancia,” the collaboration returns to Billboard’s Feb. 4-dated Hot Trending Songs chart at No. 1.
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Billboard’s Hot Trending charts, powered by Twitter, track global music-related trends and conversations in real-time across Twitter, viewable over either the last 24 hours or past seven days. A weekly, 20-position version of the chart, covering activity from Friday through Thursday of each week, posts alongside Billboard’s other weekly charts on Billboard.com each Tuesday, with the latest tracking period running Jan. 20-26.
“Ambulancia” was released Sept. 6, 2022, alongside Camilo’s full-length album De Adentro Pa Afuera. The album peaked at No. 28 on the Top Latin Albums chart dated Sept. 24, 2022.
Now the album’s latest radio single (it concurrently debuts at No. 17 on Tropical Airplay), the video for “Ambulancia” premiered Jan. 24 and features starring roles from both performers.
“Ambulancia” bows ahead a slew of new releases, led by Chloe’s “Pray It Away,” which starts at No. 2. Released Jan. 27 but teased beginning on Jan. 25, “Pray” is the first taste of Chloe’s debut studio album, In Pieces, due in March.
Zara Larsson’s new single, “Can’t Tame Her,” follows at No. 3, while songs from new LPs and EPs by Trippie Redd, Quevedo and Ice Spice round out the top 10.
Keep visiting Billboard.com for the constantly evolving Hot Trending Songs rankings, and check in each Tuesday for the latest weekly chart.
As a prodigious young singer-songwriter and popular social media personality, Jacob Lawson has grown a devoted following over his past few years as a recording artist. But this week is something of a coronation for the artist now known as JVKE as a crossover star, as he scores his first top 10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100.
“Golden Hour,” the breakout single from his 2022 breakup song cycle This Is What ____ Feels Like (Vol. 1-4), climbs 11-10 on the Hot 100 dated Feb. 4, thanks to growing pop radio support and steady streaming success. The lush pop ballad is JVKE’s first Hot 100 entry of any kind, though he’d already proven a reliable streaming performer with prior singles “Upside Down,” “Dandelion” and the This Is What title track.
How big will “Golden Hour” get from here? And which bubbling-under pop sensation might be the next to score a crossover chart hit? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.
1. “Golden Hour” makes the top 10 in its 12th week on the listing. What do you think has been the biggest factor in its chart rise?
Stephen Daw: While TikTok was the obvious defining factor in the song’s initial success, pop radio appears to be the big driver for “Golden Hour” right now. Along with his first Hot 100 top 10, JVKE also scored his first top 10 on our Pop Airplay chart thanks to increased radio play of the single — sure, the sound is still everywhere on TikTok, but its crossover onto mainstream radio is what’s sending it way up the charts.
Lyndsey Havens: My best guess is we’re seeing a spike thanks to his year-end performance at Jingle Ball. It was a well-timed live set that primed JVKE for this post-holiday climb. And while “Golden Hour” may have taken off on TikTok first, it’s been growing at radio as well, also entering the top 10 on the Pop Airplay chart this week. And it’s important to remember this is all happening without any major label push.
Jason Lipshutz: “Golden Hour” has a winning formula: semi-rapped verses full of romantic observations and modern music references, boiling into an enormous, crooned-from-the-gut chorus. JVKE, to his credit, nails the push-pull at the heart of the song — nimble enough to sound nonchalant during the lead-up, then giving his absolute all on the hook — while the racing piano line beneath him is a memorable piece of production that simultaneously doesn’t distract from the vocal take.
Glenn Rowley: I would chalk it up in large part to timing. Outside of Miley’s “Flowers” and Shakira’s “Bzrp Music Sessions, Vol. 53,” the chart hasn’t exactly been inundated with new releases. It’s still mostly filled with pre-holiday holdovers, which has left some room for JVKE to sneak into the top 10 after a three-month climb.
Andrew Unterberger: A combination of a strong social following and presence (over 10 million followers on TikTok) and legitimate musical talent (displayed with this song’s frantic piano hook and soaring vocals) is usually a pretty good starting point for pop success. The interest had been there for a couple years already with JVKE; once he had a song that broke through a little bit it was pretty clear it was going to go pretty far from there.
2. JVKE has seen some streaming success before — three of his earlier songs have over 100 million plays on Spotify — but this is his first Hot 100 hit. Does it make sense to you that “Golden Hour” would be the song to put him over the top?
Stephen Daw: For sure. While I think there are more obvious “pop hit”-sounding singles in JVKE’s catalog, but “Golden Hour” stands out. The song has a sense of orchestral drama to it that makes it sound at least moderately different from other viral songs right now — which then makes it a lot easier for fans to go searching for “that one song I heard on TikTok.”
Lyndsey Havens: Totally. This song is not only incredibly well-crafted and fresh sounding, but the way he introduced it — with a simple TikTok clip in which his childhood piano teacher tears up at him playing the song for her — pushed it over the edge. I can’t quite remember the last time an artist who grew up inspired by both Christian music and hip-hop, with a knack for intricate piano melodies and soaring vocals, put it all together. The result is, well… a top 10 hit.
Jason Lipshutz: It does, simply because “Golden Hour” has demonstrated a pop radio appeal that JVKE’s other hits have not. The key to “Golden Hour” crossing into the top 10 of the Hot 100 chart may be its move up to No. 25 on the Radio Songs chart this week, with that soaring hook sounding right at home on top 40 radio. “Golden Hour” had already reached the top 10 of the Streaming Songs chart (and sits at No. 13 this week), but winning over another format has helped create a multi-platform smash.
Glenn Rowley: Honestly, it makes sense from a strategy perspective — what, with countless remixes, a holiday version and assists from the likes of Ruel and Henry. But musically, the song feels like such an anomaly to me; certainly not what I’d expect to hear at the top of the chart at the moment.
Andrew Unterberger: I didn’t think so at first, though I’m sorta coming around to it. Parts of it feel more like an album interlude (or really an intro) than a big single, but such distinctions are increasingly irrelevant in 2023: Look at Steve Lacy’s “Static,” the beatless opening track to his Gemini Rights that never really properly kicks in, but was still pretty easily the album’s second biggest hit after the chart-conquering “Bad Habit.” This song doesn’t feel like his most radio-ready, but it does feel like his most striking, and in modern pop the latter is probably more important.
3. Do you see the song continuing to climb on the Hot 100 from here? How high do you think it might go?
Stephen Daw: Without a remix or an updated version of some kind, I don’t see the song going that much further up the chart — especially when you have tracks with a proven track record of chart longevity like “As It Was,” “Rich Flex” and “Die For You” in the way. Maybe “Golden Hour” will be able overtake one or two of those tracks, but I doubt it will crack the seemingly impenetrable Top 5 we currently have.
Lyndsey Havens: When you consider some expected post-Grammy bumps, the No. 10 spot may be where “Golden Hour” peaks for now. Unless he and his team have an official music video up their sleeves — or something else — to regenerate buzz, the timing may be a bit off for it to climb any higher. But hey, the upper echelon is the upper echelon. And it could leave room for his follow-up hit to get even closer to the summit.
Jason Lipshutz: I could see “Golden Hour” challenging for a top 5 spot on the Hot 100, considering how some songs above it on the chart, like Harry Styles’ “As It Was” and David Guetta & Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue),” have presided in the top 10 for months and could start slipping in the coming weeks. However, I don’t envision “Golden Hour” challenging the “Flowers”/“Kill Bill”/“Anti-Hero” triumvirate at the top of the tally anytime soon — which says less about JVKE’s breakout hit and more about how sturdy those Miley Cyrus, SZA and Taylor Swift tracks have become at the Hot 100 summit.
Glenn Rowley: I think it’s probably reached its summit. It’ll be harder for it to climb much higher as the industry thaws from its January gloom and the release calendar starts heating up again.
Andrew Unterberger: Could maybe get another spot higher or two, but would probably need a major moment to get much higher than that. Speaking of which, though: Why is JVKE not booked to play the Grammys this year? He’s not a household name yet, but he could’ve brought some younger viewers to the ceremonies, and the ornate production and majestic presentation of “Golden Hour” actually makes it more auditorium-ready than a lot of the songs we’ll likely hear at the awards this year. (Plus his instrumental ability should make him an easier sell than most young artists to the stodgier Recording Academy members in attendance.) Could’ve been a win for both show and performer. Maybe next year.
4. Artists with TikTok-assisted breakouts sometimes find difficulty scoring a follow-up hit of comparable size — do you think JVKE has more high-level pop success in him, or is this likely closer to a charts one-off?
Stephen Daw: I think it depends on how JVKE proceeds from here; if he tries to go about replicating the sound and feel of “Golden Hour” in another song, then I don’t think it’ll work. “Golden Hour” succeeded because it stood out from a lot of what’s big on TikTok right now. If JVKE follows that gut instinct of making something that is as immediately striking thanks to its individuality, then I think there’s a very good chance that we’ll be seeing him again.
Lyndsey Havens: I do think there’s more here. Because of the way in which he blends his skills as a pianist, vocalist and lyricist, his music stands out and makes me intrigued to hear what’s next. And, of course, there’s the key part of him choosing to remain independent… helping me feel confident that without any outside forces suggesting or perhaps pushing him down alternate paths, what follows will be just as impressive — and entirely JVKE.
Jason Lipshutz: I do think JVKE will be heard from after “Golden Hour,” mostly because of the personality he flaunts on its verses — the way he comfortably sets the scene, distinguishes his voice and showcases his multi-faceted skill set in a short amount of time. “Golden Hour” isn’t a hit because of a quick, catchy melody or production gimmick, but because the artist powering it intrigues the listener throughout; maybe he won’t have another hit as big as “Golden Hour,” but JVKE has definitely caught the attention of a lot of people.
Glenn Rowley: I do think JVKE has potential to build on this moment. He clearly has the musical chops, which are demonstrated here far better than they were on, say, “Upside Down” back in 2020. This Is What ____ Feels Like (Vol. 1-4) is just such a unique beast as a debut album that wherever he does go from here, there’s no doubt it’ll certainly be interesting.
Andrew Unterberger: He might not be the type to chart with every song, but I’d bet we see JVKE again on the Hot 100 before long. He’s got the talent, the drive and the following — he’ll get his chances, and now that he’s got the one legitimate crossover hit, it probably won’t be so hard for him to score a second. And it wouldn’t be shocking to see him enlisted as a guest player on other stars’ records either; lord knows there are a lot of rappers out there who love a good dramatic piano loop.
5. Who’s another young pop artist that’s sorta been bubbling just below the mainstream so far this decade who you think might be due for a breakout hit like “Golden Hour” in the near future?
Stephen Daw: Do not sleep on Ashnikko. She has been just on the periphery of mainstream chart success — “Daisy” entered both the Pop and Alternative Airplay charts, but never quite managed to crack the Hot 100. But with every subsequent release, Ashnikko’s sound gets more and more refined and specific, so I think 2023 could be the year we finally see her make her way to a debut Hot 100 single.
Lyndsey Havens: I can see “Red Flags,” the latest single from British singer-songwriter Mimi Webb, enjoying a slow climb onto — and eventually up — the Hot 100. It’s a pure pop banger, and her upcoming debut album out this March could very well help with that journey.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m betting big on Gracie Abrams, who has been releasing pop songs over the past three years without impacting the Hot 100 but whose songs keep getting stronger as she gears up for her debut album, Good Riddance, next month. Don’t be surprised if an Abrams song is dominating the cultural conversation by the end of February.
Glenn Rowley: Four months ago, my immediate answer would’ve been Kim Petras, but “Unholy” obviously delivered a much-deserved breakout hit for her and then some. Shout-out to Maisie Peters, though — the U.K. pop darling people should keep a close eye on as she gears up for her sophomore album. You heard it here first: she has the songwriting chops to rival Olivia Rodrigo as Gen Z’s answer to Taylor Swift.
Andrew Unterberger: PinkPantheress just keeps getting closer to true breakout success, and her late 2022 single “Boy’s a Liar” might end up being her biggest streaming hit yet. She’s a pretty prolific creator, so it seems like only a matter of time before the right release at the right time puts her over the top; I’d almost be more surprised if she didn’t end up with a Hot 100 hit before 2023 was up.