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Believe‘s board of directors on Monday (Mar. 25) asked Warner Music Group (WMG) to submit a formal bid for the French music company after stating that French financial regulators found an offer by a group that includes Believe CEO Denis Ladegaillerie violated certain securities rules. WMG said earlier this month that it approached Believe in […]
These days the music industry sometimes seems like a media business version of “Trading Places” in which every label wants to be a distributor and every distributor wants to become a label.
On March 7, Warner Music Group disclosed its interest in buying the French digital music distributor Believe, but all the label groups are focusing more on the distribution game – think Sony Music’s 2021 acquisition of AWAL and Universal Music Group’s October consolidation of Virgin Music and Ingrooves. At the same time, distributors are offering more of the services that only labels used to provide, including radio promotion and different kinds of marketing.
From the perspective of an independent creator, these two once-separate sectors have moved close enough that they’re competing – the majors are offering more flexible contracts that allow artists to keep their copyrights, while distributors are providing advances and an array of services to successful acts. For anyone who was in the industry before streaming became the standard, this seems like the music business’ Reese’s moment: You got your distribution in my label! You got your label in my distribution! To outsiders and young creators though, the distinction might not even make that much sense in the first place. Behind all the complicated corporate org charts, isn’t Sony just investing in, marketing and distributing Bad Bunny’s music (through The Orchard), just as it invests in, markets and distributes Beyoncé’s (on Columbia)?
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Sort of. Companies spend less, and make less, on the music they distribute, while acts signed to labels represent bigger bets both in terms of investment and potential upside. Distribution is steadier, while the label business involves more risk and some very profitable successes that more than make up for them. That’s not new. What is new, though, is how what was once a binary choice has become more of a question of finding the right point on a spectrum of risk and reward that has a traditional label deal at one end, distribution on the other and plenty of options in between.
It’s easy to understand why distributors are offering services that were once solely the domain of labels – pure online distribution has always been a low-cost commodity business, and label services offers are one way to get better margins. But what about the opposite? Why are labels getting into a lower-profit business that essentially endangers the best part of their existing business? Especially as label deals get less standard, companies make higher margins on acts that are early in their careers, before they score the success that gets them the leverage to negotiate a better deal.
Understanding why the major label groups are investing so much in a less profitable sector than the one they’re in requires seeing the issue like a media executive in the Internet Age, which is to say through the lens of disruption. This is the idea that companies which pioneer a good-enough product or service at a much lower cost will eventually challenge the market leaders – think of Netflix and cable television, for example. Although the theory isn’t as simple or as applicable as technology executives say it may well apply here: The market share of recorded music from traditional labels is slowly but steadily shrinking, in favor of distributors. The good news for the major labels is that much of that shift involves distributors they own, including The Orchard, owned by Sony, which raised its U.S. market share from 1.5% in 2021, to 7.1% in 2022, to 8.7% in 2023, according to Luminate. Much of that business comes from Bad Bunny, of course, but the company already has another bona fide Latin music superstar in Peso Pluma.
The labels basically just want to disrupt their own businesses before other companies can. If you think this kind of change is inevitable, it’s worth running toward it. (The music business has a reputation for being fearful of technology because it took so long to embrace the internet, but the business school idea of disruption doesn’t apply to pirated music; Napster wasn’t offering another product – it was offering the same product illegally.)
The second reason companies are buying distributors is, as MUSIC founder and CEO Matt Pincus recently told Billboard, “it solves a real stack problem for them.” Pincus was talking specifically about Warner, which like all label groups focuses on trying to break and market stars. A “stack” – programmer-speak for underlying technology – would let the company serve beginning creators and more emerging ones, as well as stars and a few artists that it wants to develop into stars. Warner already does this with ADA, which distributes independent labels, but ADA has tended to focus on a moderate number of mid-size indies, rather than a larger number of smaller ones.
But the most important reason labels are investing more on distribution could be the sector’s potential to serve as a kind of talent farm system. In the movies, label executives discover artists in bars or office auditions, but that hasn’t been the dominant way of doing business for a generation. These days, even beginning creators are distributing their music online, starting their careers on their own rather than trying to be discovered. Which means that by the time a major label gets interested in them, they may already have a deal. Since it’s easier to sign an artist who’s already involved with another division of the company, it makes sense to cast the biggest net possible. This is a defensive move, too: Now that Sony and Universal have big distribution businesses that can potentially serve as talent pipelines, Warner arguably needs one, too.
For that matter, the same applies to Believe. Most indie creators want to start their careers with basic distribution deals – but few of them want to stop there. Believe could be much more attractive to creators if it could offer them a place to grow to as well as services to grow into.
Believe benefitted from geographical expansion and strong streaming growth to post revenue of 880.3 million euros ($952.8 million at the average exchange rate) in 2023, up 15.7% from the prior year, the company announced Wednesday (Mar. 13). Organic growth was 14.4%, matching the guidance the company provided in October of organic growth exceeding 14%. After adjusting for foreign currency headwinds, Believe’s adjusted organic growth rate was 19.5% in 2023 and 21.8% in the fourth quarter.
The current growth rate should extend into the current year. Believe expects to achieve organic revenue growth in excess of 20% in 2024, adjusted to 18% to account for expected foreign currency headwinds. That high growth rate stems from a healthy paid streaming market and the belief that the ad-supported streaming market will rebound in the second half of the year. Believe also expects to make market share gains, especially in countries where it is not yet a top three company for local artists.
In 2023, Believe was helped by price increases at music streaming services in 2023 — Amazon Music in January, Spotify in July and Deezer in November. The company had market share gains in all key countries and with all key digital service providers, Xaiver Dumont, chief financial and operating officer, said during Wednesday’s earnings call.
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Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EDITDA) of 50.3 million euros ($54.4 million) was up 45%. Adjusted EBITDA margin rose to 5.7%, surpassing guidance of at least 5.5%. Free cash flow was -3.1 million euros (-$3.4 million), although free cash flow turned positive in the second half of the year.
The earnings release arrived as Believe is the subject of a bid to be taken private by a consortium led by CEO Denis Ladegaillerie and investment firms EQT X and TCV. Warner Music Group (WMG) revealed last week that it’s interested in pursuing Believe and willing to beat the consortium’s offer. Believe’s executives did not address questions about the take-private bid during Wednesday’s earnings call, however.
The publicly traded French music company’s business model is built around helping to develop artists and using digital marketing and distribution to impact local charts. That approach is increasingly relevant when any artist can go viral on social media. Case in point: Believe landed a hit in 2023 when a 2022 single, “Si No Estás’” by Iñigo Quintero, become a TikTok hit in Spain before topping charts in France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Austria and Belgium. “These success at the top are being achieved in a wider variety of genres of music” including hip-hop, pop and metal, Ladegaillerie said during the earnings call.
Believe also landed 42 albums in the top 200 in its home country and 48 singles in the Top 100 in its second-largest market, Germany. In the United Kingdom, consumption was up 394%. In China, Believe expanded to 80 staffers in five offices that serve 300 record labels. In India, where Believe acquired White Hill Music’s catalog in December, the company had 66 songs on local charts.
Revenue in France, where Believe is in the top three recorded music companies for local artists, rose 14.9% to 147.8 million euros ($160 million). Revenue in Germany dropped 2.4% to 110.9 million euros ($120 million), while revenue in Europe, excluding France and Germany, rose 25.9% to 264.6 million euros ($286.2 million). The Americas accounted for 128.1 million euros ($138.7 million), up 17.4% on strength in Brazil and Mexico. Asia-Pacific and Africa contributed 228.9 million euros ($247.8 million), up 14.9%, with China and Japan being particularly strong. India and Southeast Asia grew at slower paces due to those regions being affected by weakness in the ad-supported streaming market.
Revenue for the company’s premium solutions division rose 15.8% to 825.1 million euros ($893.1 million), while the division’s adjusted EBITDA improved 16.8% to 118.3 million euros ($128 million). Premium solutions mainly consists of the sale, promotion, marketing and delivery of digital content for artists and labels. It also includes some physical sales, synchronization services, neighboring rights and music publishing.
In the automated solutions division, revenue increased 14.6% to 55.2 million euros ($59.7 million), and adjusted EBITDA rose 53% to 10.1 million euros ($10.9 million). The slower growth rate was expected, said Dumont, because of lower ad-supported monetization and a new TuneCore pricing structure launched in 2022 that led to lower average revenue per client and was “not yet compensated by the ramp-up in new clients.”
Ladegaillerie has formed a consortium with two of its shareholders, investment firms EQT X and TCV, to take the company private at 15 euros ($16.43) per share. That offer ran into competition last week when WMG revealed its interest in Believe and said it might be willing to pay at least 17 euros ($18.62) per share. The consortium has attempted to speed the process and waive the board’s condition that an independent expert provide a report to Believe’s ad-hoc committee on the offer’s fairness from a financial viewpoint. The parties are now waiting for French financial regulators to say if the consortium can unilaterally waive the independent expert’s report and whether WMG’s preliminary proposal prevents the waiver of the board’s condition.
In a New Year letter to staff in January, Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl said the company needed to offer better services to the “middle class of artists,” an area being feverishly pursued by his major-label competitors, as well as a handful of independent distribution companies.
This week, WMG revealed it is interested in acquiring French company Believe, which owns a large label services business, digital distributor TuneCore, publishing administration service Sentric and a stable of record labels including Naïve, Nuclear Blast and Groove Attack. WMG said it is willing to pay “at least” 17 euros ($18.60) per share, a premium to the 15 euros ($16.41) per share offered by a consortium led by Believe CEO Denis Ladegaillerie and investment funds EQT and TCV. WMG’s bid values Believe at roughly 1.65 billion euros ($1.8 billion).
WMG’s interest in Believe doesn’t come as a surprise. The middle class of artists Kyncl referenced wants alternatives to traditional recording and publishing deals — and WMG needs the tools to give those artists what they want.
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While WMG can likely bring greater value to Believe’s assets as well, a Believe deal “solves a real stack problem for [WMG],” says Matt Pincus, founder and CEO of MUSIC, a venture with investment bank Liontree. A full “stack” — a tech term that refers to all the technologies and skills required for a project — would allow WMG to serve a more complete range of artists. Presently, WMG’s product offering is missing a distributor for self-published artists, says Pincus, that provides a level of artist services between a do-it-yourself distribution deal and a record label contract. That would augment WMG’s ADA, which distributes indie labels, and create a funnel to bring rising artists into WMG’s system.
Kyncl need only look at how his competitors are serving middle-class artists. Following the rise of iTunes, some independent distributors were eventually acquired by other major labels that wanted to distribute music on a greater scale. Sony Music has The Orchard, a digital distributor acquired in 2015, and AWAL, an artist-development company acquired from Kobalt in 2022. Universal Music Group acquired digital distributor Ingrooves in 2019 and folded it into its artist- and label-services division, Virgin Music Group in 2022. TuneCore, founded in 2006 to allow artists to access a new era of digital stores and services, was acquired by Believe in 2015.
The majors’ emphasis on label services is an acknowledgement that today’s marketplace is a mix of traditional artist deals, do-it-yourself independent artists and everything in-between — distribution deals, joint ventures, licensing deals, profit-sharing arrangements and releases from independent artists backed by a major’s label services provider. Budding superstars often want independence but need the majors’ global infrastructure and expertise. “What really makes a difference in this world is to do what [CEO] Brad [Navin] and the Orchard did with the Bad Bunny record [Un Verano Sin Ti],” says Pincus. “They really helped break that record worldwide.”
Believe would also provide WMG a publishing solution for those same independent artists. “When you consider that Believe also acquired Sentric publishing, this brings together master and publishing for many of these indie artists,” says Vickie Nauman of advisory firm CrossBorderWorks. “That also opens up opportunities for new synch licensing models that otherwise fragmented rights do not allow.”
Geography is another aspect of Believe’s business that could be attractive to WMG. Although the majority of Believe’s revenue comes from Europe, it has employees in more than 50 countries and has a presence in fast-growing markets such as Indian — where it invested in two record labels, Venus and Think Music — and Indonesia. Approximately 27% of Believe’s total revenue in the first nine months of 2023 came from Asia-Pacific and Africa, a 17.4% increase from the prior-year period.
Developing markets have great potential for a couple reasons, Kyncl explained Wednesday at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom 2024 conference. In the Middle East, for example, markets that have young populations, an underdeveloped subscription market and lack collection societies “will see quite a lot of value appreciation.” Developing markets are increasingly becoming music exporters, and Kyncl believes that provides WMG with an arbitrage opportunity. “Let’s say if you have Indonesian content that’s traveling to America,” he said. “It’s a smart place to put money because it’s [going] from a low ARPU country to high ARPU streams [in a developed market].”
An acquisition is hardly a done deal, though. To date, WMG has only expressed an interest in Believe. WMG is playing catch-up, too: The consortium attempting to take Believe private has lined up blocks representing nearly 72% of share capital — enough to “prevent a competing bidder from acquiring control,” according to Believe’s ad-hoc committee — although WMG’s higher bid could change that. An acquisition would require regulatory approval, too, and there is likely to be pushback from music companies and trade associations such as the UK-based Association of Independent Music against further industry consolidation.
But, setting aside the potential roadblocks, WMG would be a good fit for Believe. Sony Music and UMG are both larger than WMG, already have Believe-like companies and would thus face more regulatory scrutiny. The 1.65 billion-euros ($1.8 billion) price tag is in what astronomers call the “Goldilocks zone” for habitable planets’ distance to their suns: It’s too expensive for many independent companies but affordable enough for WMG.
Warner Music issued a formal notice on Thursday disclosing its interest in acquiring the French digital music company Believe, a surprise move that would entail outbidding an earlier effort by a consortium led by the firm’s founder and CEO. The announcement, made before the opening of the Euronext Paris stock exchange, where Believe is listed, […]
Believe founder and CEO Denis Ladegaillerie has formed a consortium with investment funds EQT and TCV as part of a wider effort to acquire full ownership of the French music company and take it private. The triad announced their intentions on Monday (Feb. 12), and the Believe board of directors unanimously voted to welcome the proposal to review.
All told, the bid values Believe’s entire share capital at 1.523 billion euros (USD $1.64 billion) based on 101,547 million shares outstanding.
Before they can take Believe private, Ladegaillerie, EQT and TCV first must acquire shares owned by historical shareholders TCV Luxco BD S.à r.l., XAnge and Ventech, which combined amount to 59.46% of the share capital. After this already agreed-upon transaction, Ladegaillerie would then contribute a portion of his company shares, representing an additional 11.7%, to the bidding conglomerate, as well as sell his remaining portion of 1.29%. An additional 3% has been obtained from other shareholders, bringing this group’s share of the company to roughly 75%.
Once these acquisitions are approved by regulators, the conglomerate would then make a tender offer for all Believe outstanding shares at an offer price of 15 euros per share, representing a 21% premium over the last closing price before the proposed buyout was announced (12.4 euros on Feb. 9). If legal conditions are met at the end of the offer, the company will then request the implementation of a squeeze-out procedure.
Completion of the acquisitions of the blocks of shares is expected to take place during the second quarter of 2024, and the filing of the subsequent tender offer would be sent to the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF), which regulates the stock market in France, soon after.
The French digital music company, which owns TuneCore, began trading on the Paris Euronext exchange in June 2021.
Believe’s board has appointed an independent expert, Ledouble, to draw up an opinion on the offer, and assigned three board members to assist with that effort and work up their own recommendations for shareholders and employees.
In prepared comments, Ladegaillerie said Believe has “systematically outperformed its objectives, delivering its IPO plan two years ahead of schedule” but “the strength of its operational performance has not been reflected in the share price evolution.”
He added, “Believe has a significant opportunity ahead to consolidate the independent music market and create the first global major independent, at the service of artists at all stages of their career. In achieving this ambition, I am glad to continue benefiting from the active support of TCV who has accompanied Believe since 2014 and to be partnering with Europe-based EQT who has a great track record in supporting high growth companies.”
Believe has appointed Citigroup Global Markets Europe AG and Gide Loyrette Nouel as financial and legal advisers to assist the company and the three-member committee in their evaluation of the offer.
iHeartMedia shares dropped 19.6% to $2.01 this week as the company warned investors of continued softness in radio advertising dollars. Fourth quarter results “will be weaker than we originally anticipated,” said CEO Bob Pittman during Thursday’s earnings call. In October, consolidated revenue was down 8% from the prior-year period. For the fourth quarter, iHeartMedia expects consolidated revenue excluding political ad revenue to decline in the low single digits.
Still, iHeartMedia’s third-quarter results were in line with previous guidance. Revenue of $953 million was down 3.6% from the prior-year period, a bit better than the guidance of a low single-digit decrease. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $204 million was within the guidance of $195 million to $205 million.
The week’s sharp decline brought iHeartMedia’s year-to-date loss to 67.2%, far deeper than the declines of broadcast radio company Cumulus Media (-21.9%) and satellite radio company SiriusXM (-20.7%). Not only has broadcast radio suffered from weak national advertising, it lacks the high growth rates of music streaming and podcasting. PwC’s latest forecasts call for U.S. radio advertising revenues to rise just 4% from 2023 to 2027 while U.S. podcast advertising — where iHeartMedia has a large footprint — will grow 41% to $2 billion.
Next year’s elections should provide a shot in the arm, though. “As we look forward to 2024, we expect to generate significantly better free cash flow driven in part by an improving macro environment, as well as the impact of political dollars,” said CFO Rich Bressler. In 2020, the company generated $167 million in political revenues, he noted.
The Billboard Global Music Index mostly held steady this week, dropping just 0.3% to 1,390.68. Of the index’s 20 stocks, seven gained this while while 13 finished in negative territory. Most stocks had low-single-digit gains or losses and iHeartMedia was the only stock with a double-digit move in either direction.
French company Believe was the index’s greatest gainer of the week after improving 7.4% to 9.93 euros ($10.64). German concert promoter CTS Eventim, which will release third-quarter earnings on Nov. 21, gained 5.5% to 62.75 euros ($67.24). Music streaming company LiveOne gained 4.7% to $1.12. Chinese music streamer Cloud Music, which has not yet announced the date of its third-quarter earnings release, gained 3.3% to 99.50 HKD ($12.74).
Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. dropped 1.5% to $35.95 after a roller-coaster week. Following the company’s Nov. 3 announcement that CFO Gautum Ranji had left the company, Sphere Entertainment shares dropped 9.6% to $32.97 on Monday. The share price fell an additional 4.5% to $31.87 on Wednesday following the quarterly earnings release. But Sphere Entertainment picked up momentum in the latter half of the week, gaining 12.8% over Thursday and Friday to close at $35.95.
U.S. stocks were broadly up this week despite news that consumer sentiment declined in November and expectations for future inflation reached their highest level since 2011. The Nasdaq composite rose 2.4% while the S&P 500 improved 1.3%. Many major U.S. tech stocks posted big gains. Microsoft hit an all-time high of $370.09 on Friday and finished the week at $369.67, up 4.8%. Apple rose 5.5% to $186.40. Amazon improved 3.6% to $143.56. Meta jumped 4.5% to $32.8.77. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.8%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 1.7%.
French music company Believe benefitted from “healthy” paid streaming growth as its third-quarter revenue grew 9.1% to 215 million euros ($197.6 million at the quarter’s average exchange rate), the Paris-based company announced Tuesday (Oct. 24).
The owner of distributor TuneCore and labels such as Groove Attack and Naïve said organic revenue growth of 7.5% would have been 15.4% without the impact of the currency translation within the digital royalties it receives from its digital partners. Paid streaming “remained strong,” the company stated in its earnings release, although revenue was not yet impacted by recent price increases “due to their deployment calendar in some markets.”
Revenue grew 25.9% to 66.9 million euros ($61.5 million) in Europe outside of Believe’s two single largest markets, France and Germany, accouting for 31.1% of total revenue. The company cited particularly strong growth in Southern Europe, Eastern Europe and Turkey. The addition of Liverpool-based Sentric, acquired from Utopia Music in March, helped revenue growth in the United Kingdom. Revenue was up only 0.7% in France, which accounted for 16% of total revenue, after growing more than 40% in the prior-year quarter. Revenue dropped 6.4% in Germany due to non-digital sales being down “strongly” as Believe moved away from contracts it believes were too weighted in physical sales and merchandise.
Revenue from Asia Pacific and Africa grew 6.6% to 55.8 million euros ($51.3 million) and accounted for 25.9% of total revenue. The company was helped by increased paid streaming penetration in the region but hurt by soft ad-supported streaming and a stronger euro against local currencies. Greater China was particularly strong, while Japan was aided by Believe’s roll-out of its Premium Solutions offering. The Americas accounted for 14.4% of Believe’s revenue and grew 8.4% in the quarter; Brazil and Mexico were particularly strong, the company said.
Believe is comprised of two segments, Premium Solutions and Automated Solutions. Premium Solutions revenue rose 10.1% to 202.9 million euros ($186.5 million). Automated Solutions, which includes TuneCore, dropped 4.5% to 12.1 million euros ($11.1 million) due to a stronger euro and a challenging comparable period influenced by TuneCore’s launch of unlimited pricing in July 2022.
Looking forward, Believe increased its forecast for adjusted earnings before taxes, interest and amortization margin from 5% at the mid-year mark to 5.5%. The company reiterated its guidance for full-year organic growth of 14%.
Although Believe’s growth slowed in the last two quarters, the company expects its organic growth rate — excluding foreign exchange impacts and the impacts of acquisitions — will recover in the fourth quarter “thanks to solid paid streaming trends enhanced by price increases by some large digital partners, a slight recovery in ad-funded streaming expected at the end of the quarter and additional market share gains,” it stated in the earnings release.
Next year’s revenue will get an additional boost from subscription services following up their recent price increases by further raising prices to 12 euros/$12 per month, said CEO Denis Ladegaillerie during Tuesday’s earnings call. “We definitely expect [price increases] to come. ‘When’ is the question. But it’s going to be 2024, no doubt.”
Total revenue increased 9.1% to 215 million euros ($197.6 million).
Digital sales rose 7.1% while non-digital sales rose 39.6% as reported (12.4% at constant currency and constant perimeter).
Digital sales accounted for 92% of revenue, the same as the prior-year quarter.
Premium Solutions revenue grew 10.1% to 202.9 million euros ($186.5 million).
Premium Solutions’ digital sales rose 16.8% and non-digital sales rose 11.2%.
Automated Solutions revenue dropped 4.5% to 12.1 million.
Abu Dhabi-based music streamer Anghami led all music stocks this week after gaining 17.6% to $0.82. On Thursday, the company announced through an SEC filing it had received a written notification from the Nasdaq Stock Market regarding its closing share price being below $1.00 for the previous 30 days. The Nasdaq gives companies 180 days to regain compliance or face de-listing from the exchange.
The warning appeared to spur a 16.5% gain on Thursday as investors saw signs the share price won’t remain under $1. In its SEC filing, Anghami stated if the share price remains under the $1 threshold it will “consider available options to cure the deficiency,” including a reverse share split (which would increase the share price by reducing the number of shares outstanding while the market capitalization remains unchanged).
SiriusXM gained 5.7% on Friday (Oct. 13) and finished the week up 11.8%. Its $4.85 closing price was the highest for the satellite radio company since Aug. 9. The typically steady stock has fallen 17% this year as self-pay satellite radio subscribers stagnated at or around 32 million for eight straight quarters. SiriusXM will host a Nov. 8 presentation to unveil a new streaming app and preview upcoming in-car innovations and new programming.
The 21-stock Billboard Global Music Index fell 1.3% to 1,355.65 this week as 13 stocks were in negative territory and only eight stocks gained ground. Year to date, the index has gained 16.1%. Led by SiriusXM’s gain and a 7.6% increase from Cumulus Media, the index’s three radio stocks had an average improvement of 5.5%. Eight record labels and publishers had an average weekly gain of 0.3%. HYBE improved 6.8% while Believe climbed 3.6% and Universal Music Group added 0.6%. Streaming companies were, on average, flat this week.
Live music stocks dropped an average of 4.8%. Shares of Sphere Entertainment Co. dropped 11.1%, effectively offsetting the 11% gain on Oct. 2 following U2’s debut performances at Sphere in Las Vegas. Live Nation dropped 3.9%, MSG Entertainment fell 3.5% and CTS Eventim shares fell 0.7%. If investors are curious what’s next for Sphere Entertainment, clues comes from an interview published Thursday. Executive chairman and CEO James Dolan said the company is “actively pursuing other markets” and “has six different kinds of spheres down to a 3,000-seater.” A Las Vegas-style Sphere may not work in London, where according to reports residents are concerned about the location and light pollution that could arise from a massive external display similar to the Las Vegas venue.
Music stocks underperformed numerous indexes. In the United States, the S&P 500 gained 0.1% and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.3%. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 1.4%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 2%.
Stocks faded after the release of consumer sentiment data for October by the University of Michigan showed a decline from September based on “a substantial increase” in concerns about inflation. Expectations for inflation in one year rose from 3.2% in September to 3.8% this month. That’s the highest mark since May 2023 and substantially above the 2.3% to 3% range seen in the two years before the pandemic.
Also a factor in stock prices, the U.S. Federal Reserve expects to raise interest rates one more time, according to minutes released from its September policy meeting. Interest rates have an inverse relationship with equity prices. Higher interest rates make borrowing more expensive and cut down on corporate profits.
For some music companies, 2022 was the payoff for weathering the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic. When business returned that year — sometimes in record-setting fashion — these companies rewarded their executives handsomely, according to Billboard’s 2022 Executive Money Makers breakdown of stock ownership and compensation. But shareholders, as well as two investment advisory groups, contend the compensation for top executives at Live Nation and Universal Music Group (UMG) is excessive.
Live Nation, the world’s largest concert promotion and ticketing company, rebounded from revenue of $1.9 billion and $6.3 billion in 2020 and 2021, respectively, to a record $16.7 billion in 2022. That performance helped make its top two executives, president/CEO Michael Rapino and president/CFO Joe Berchtold, the best paid music executives of 2022. In total, Rapino received a pay package worth $139 million, while Berchtold earned $52.4 million. Rapino’s new employment contract includes an award of performance shares targeted at 1.1 million shares and roughly 334,000 shares of restricted stock that will fully pay off if the company hits aggressive growth targets and the stock price doubles in five years.
Live Nation explained in its 2023 proxy statement that its compensation program took into account management’s “strong leadership decisions” in 2020 and 2021 that put the company on a path to record revenue in 2022. Compared with 2019 — the last full year unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic — concert attendance was up 24%, ticketing revenue grew 45%, sponsorships and advertising revenue improved 64%, and ancillary per-fan spending was up at least 20% across all major venue types. Importantly, Live Nation reached 127% of its target adjusted operating income, to which executives’ cash bonuses were tied.
The bulk of Rapino’s and Berchtold’s compensation came from stock awards — $116.7 million for Rapino and $37.1 million for Berchtold — on top of relatively modest base salaries. Both received a $6 million signing bonus for reupping their employment contracts in 2022. (Story continues after charts.)
Lucian Grainge, the top-paid music executive in 2021, came in third in 2022 with total compensation of 47.3 million euros ($49.7 million). Unlike the other executives on this year’s list, he wasn’t given large stock awards or stock options. Instead, Grainge, who has been CEO of UMG since 2010, was given a performance bonus of 28.8 million euros ($30.3 million) in addition to a salary of 15.4 million euros ($16.2 million) — by far the largest of any music executive.
This year, shareholders have shown little appetite for some entertainment executives’ pay packages — most notably Netflix — and Live Nation’s compensation raised flags at two influential shareholder advisory groups, Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis, which both recommended that Live Nation shareholders vote “no” in an advisory “say on pay” vote during the company’s annual meeting on June 9. Shareholders did just that, voting against executives’ pay packages by a 53-to-47 margin.
Failed “say on pay” votes are rare amongst United States corporations. Through Aug. 17, just 2.1% of Russell 3000 companies and 2.3% of S&P 500 companies have received less than 50% votes on executive compensation, according to executive compensation consultancy Semler Brossy. (Live Nation is in both indexes.) About 93% of companies received at least 70% shareholder approval.
ISS was concerned that the stock grants given to Rapino and Berchtold were “multiple times larger” than total CEO pay in peer group companies and were not adequately linked to achieving sustained higher stock prices. Additionally, ISS thought Live Nation did not adequately explain the rationale behind the grants.
To determine what Rapino, Berchtold and other executives should earn, Live Nation’s compensation committee referenced high-earning executives from Netflix, Universal Music Group, SiriusXM, Spotify, Endeavor Group Holdings, Fox Corporation, Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. and Paramount Global. Netflix co-CEOs Reed Hastings and Ted Sarandos were paid $51.1 million and $50.3 million, respectively, in 2022. Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslov made $39.3 million in 2022 — including a $21.8 million cash bonus — a year after his pay totaled $246.6 million, including $202.9 million in stock option awards that will vest over his six-year employment contract. Endeavor CEO Ari Emanuel and executive chairman Patrick Whitesell received pay packages worth $308.2 million and $123.1 million, respectively, in 2021 thanks to equity awards tied to the company’s IPO that year (the received more modest pay of $19 million and $12.2 million in 2022).
Some companies in the peer group didn’t fare well in “say on pay” votes in 2023, though. Netflix, got only 29% shareholder approval in this year’s say-on-pay advisory vote after Hastings’ and Sarandos’ compensations both increased from higher stock option awards while the company’s stock price, riding high as COVID-19 lockdowns drove investors to streaming stocks, fell 51% in 2022. Warner Bros. Discovery’s 2022 compensation squeaked by with 51% shareholder approval.
Minutes from UMG’s 2023 annual general meeting in May suggest many of its shareholders also didn’t approve of Grainge’s compensation. UMG’s 2022 compensation was approved by just 59% of shareholders, and the company’s four largest shareholders own 58.1% of outstanding shares, meaning virtually no minority shareholders voted in favor.
UMG shareholders’ votes could be meaningfully different next year. Anna Jones, chairman of the music company’s remuneration committee, said during the annual meeting that in 2024, shareholders will vote on a pay package related to Grainge’s new employment agreement that takes minority shareholders’ concerns from the 2022 annual meeting into consideration. Grainge’s contract lowers his cash compensation, and more than half of his total compensation will come from stock and performance-based stock options.
Other companies in Live Nation’s peer group received near unanimous shareholder approval. SiriusXM’s 2022 executive compensation received 98.5% approval at the company’s annual meeting. Paramount Global’s executive compensation was approved by 96.4% of its shareholders. Endeavor didn’t have a “say on pay” vote in 2023, but a year ago, it’s sizable 2021 compensation packages were approved by 99% of voting shareholders.
As the radio industry came back from pandemic-era doldrums, two iHeartMedia executives — Bob Pittman, CEO, and Richard Bressler, president, CFO and COO — were among the top 10 best-paid executives in the music industry. It was new employment contracts, not iHeartMedia’s financial performance, that put them into the top 10, however. Both executives received performance stock awards — $6.5 million for Pittman and $6 million for Bressler — for signing new four-year employment contracts in 2022. Those shares will be earned over a five-year period based on the performance of the stock’s shareholder return. Neither Pittman nor Bressler received a payout from the annual incentive plan, however: iHeartMedia missed the financial targets that would have paid them millions of dollars apiece. Still, with salaries and other stock awards, Pittman and Bressler received pay packages valued at $16.3 million and $15.5 million, respectively.
Spotify co-founders Daniel Ek and Martin Lorentzon once again topped the list of largest stockholdings in public music companies. Ek’s 15.9% stake is worth nearly $4.8 billion while Lorentzon’s 11.2% stake has a market value of nearly $3.4 billion. Both Ek and Lorentzon have benefitted from Spotify’s share price more than doubling so far in 2023. In September 2022, the inaugural Money Makers list had Ek’s stake at $3.6 billion and Lorentzon’s shares at $2.3 billion.
The billionaire club also includes No. 3 HYBE chairman Bang Si-hyuk, whose 31.8% of outstanding shares are worth $2.54 billion, and No. 4 CTS Eventim CEO Klaus-Peter Schulenberg, whose 38.8% stake — held indirectly through his KPS Foundation non-profit — is worth $2.25 billion. They, too, have benefitted from higher share prices in 2023. Last year, Bang’s stake was worth $1.7 billion and Schulenberg’s shares were valued at $2.1 billion.
These top four shareholders and three others in the top 10 have one important thing in common — they are company founders. At No. 5, Park Jin-young, founder of K-pop company JYP Entertainment, owns a $559 million stake in the label and agency he launched in 1997. Another K-pop mogul, No. 8 Hyunsuk Yang, chairman of YG Entertainment, owns shares worth $199 million in the company he founded in 1996. And No. 9 Denis Ladegaillerie, CEO of 18-year-old French music company Believe, has a 12.5% stake worth $112.7 million.
Live Nation’s Rapino again landed in the top 10 for amassing a stockholding over a lengthy career, during which he has helped significantly increase his company’s value. Rapino, the only CEO Live Nation has ever known, took the helm in 2005 just months before the company was spun off from Clear Channel Entertainment with a market capitalization of $692 million. Since then, Live Nation’s market capitalization has grown at over 20% compound annual growth rate to $19.1 billion. Rapino’s 3.46 million shares represent a 1.5% stake worth $291 million.
Selling a company that one founded is another way onto the list. Scooter Braun, CEO of HYBE America, has a 0.9% stake in HYBE worth $69.8 million. That’s good for No. 10 on the list of executive stock ownership. Braun, HYBE’s second-largest individual shareholder behind chairman Bang, sold his company, Ithaca Holdings — including SB Projects and Big Machine Label Group — to HYBE in 2021 for $1.1 billion.
These rankings are based on publicly available financial statements and filings — such as proxy statements, annual reports and Form 4 filings that reveal employees’ recent stock transactions — that publicly traded companies are required by law to file for transparency to investors. So, the list includes executives from Live Nation but not its largest competitor, the privately held AEG Live.
Some major music companies are excluded because they are not standalone entities. Conglomerates that break out the financial performance of their music companies — e.g., Sony Corp. (owner of Sony Music Entertainment) and Bertelsmann (owner of BMG) — don’t disclose compensation details for heads of record labels and music publishers. Important digital platforms such as Apple Music and Amazon Music are relatively small parts of much larger corporations.
The Money Makers executive compensation table includes only the named executive officers: the CEO, the CFO and the next most highly paid executives. While securities laws vary by country, they generally require public companies to named executive officers’ salary, bonuses, stock awards and stock option grants and the value of benefits such as private airplane access and security.
And while Billboard tracked the compensation of every named executive for publicly traded music companies, the top 10 reflects two facts: The largest companies tend to have the largest pay packages and companies within the United States tend to pay better than companies in other countries.
The list of stock ownership is also taken from public disclosures. The amounts include common stock owned directly or indirectly by the executive. The list does not include former executives — such as former Warner Music Group CEO Stephen Cooper — who are no longer employed at the company and no longer required to disclose stock transactions.