State Champ Radio artist development
Sports and music company The Familie has expanded to Nashville, and is set to make Music City the company’s national headquarters.
“Nashville is a city that is inspired by culture, diversity, arts and entertainment, and – from a business perspective – encourages entrepreneurship and growth with no state-income tax and a low barrier to entry for real estate, including commercial real estate,” The Familie founder/CEO Steve Astephen tells Billboard via email.
The Familie’s roster includes Machine Gun Kelly, Avril Lavigne, Jaden Hossler, Games We Play and sombr.
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Former Universal Music Group Nashville executive vp of promotion Royce Risser will lead the company’s new country music division and oversee the Nashville office’s operations. Chase Berlin has been hired as the company’s first artist manager in Nashville.
Risser has more than three decades of music industry experience, starting at MCA Records as an intern in 1991 before being hired as a promotion assistant. Risser rose through the ranks at UMGN, leading promotion efforts and rising to executive vp of promotion. Along the way, Risser worked with artists including George Strait, Vince Gill, Reba McEntire, Luke Bryan, Keith Urban, Chris Stapleton, Sam Hunt, Eric Church, Carrie Underwood, Dierks Bentley, Jon Pardi and Brothers Osborne.
Berlin will work under Risser to sign and develop country artists and build out the genre’s division for The Familie. A University of Florida graduate, Berlin previously worked at management company The AMG and at WME.
“It’s been immediately clear to me that The Familie does things differently,” said Risser in a statement. “I appreciate the team’s non-transactional approach to management, thoughtfully building artist brands and legacies through collaboration and a vast network of cross-industry alliances. Steve Astephen could easily be the smartest, most connected person I’ve ever met and can’t wait to work alongside him in this role. I know this team will be a refreshing addition to the Nashville scene while also integrating with and honoring the history and pedigree of Music Row. I’m absolutely fired up and honored to be at the helm of The Familie’s arrival in Nashville.”
Astephen tells Billboard, “Diversity of thought and experience is what helped us transform sports representation in the 2000s and it’s what will help us do the same in music — which is essentially to not just think outside the box, but to create the box…I entered sports representation from a brand and retail perspective, then music management from a sports agency perspective. Royce has been in radio, which, of course, drives country music. He’s been in marketing and promotions. These are the types of things that add additional opportunities for an artist who signs with us. If you sign with The Familie as a musical artist, we’re looking at: How do we bring you into the sports world? How do we bring you into radio marketing? We’re not just managing an artist’s career, we’re expanding it.”
The first artist signed to the company’s country division is singer-songwriter Evanthia Theodorou.
“She’s the perfect example of the type of artist we look for, which is someone with a 360 degree brand, who is highly marketable, personable, has good values, and appeals to a wide audience through various channels of promotion,” Astephen says, estimating that the country music division could represent up to seven artists.
Astephen launched The Familie in 1998; the company also works with sports figures including football player Daniel Carlson, surfer Eli Hanneman, rally driver Oliver Solberg and tennis player Cooper Williams.
Looking ahead, Astephen says The Familie is making its move into Nashville at the perfect time. “I see the industry shifting to show how marketable the country music genre is globally,” he says. “Obviously, we have to respect what Nashville is to country music, but country artists are global superstars and only growing. So with us coming in–along with other companies–I think you’ll see more brand partnerships, more national television commercials. I’m really excited for us to be part of this and to help challenge the industry to do more than just traditional music management.”
The A&R position has historically been one of music’s most glamorous executive roles. But it’s common to hear today that the job is closer to that of an anonymous Wall Street number-cruncher — many of the creative aspects have been removed.
Traditionally, A&Rs were tasked with finding the next generation of important artists, and then helping those acts make commercially successful songs. In the modern industry, in many cases, the A&R executives who play key roles in music-making decisions have been supplanted by those who are more interested in using hard analytics to find the next big hit. Taking advantage of the flood of data from digital platforms, music companies now often seek an edge over their competition by ingesting and analyzing reams of information from streaming services and social media sites.
“Over the past five years, everything has been centered around the data, the data, the data,” says Mike Weiss, head of A&R for the distribution company UnitedMasters. The industry now prioritizes “A&R guys who know that 10 is bigger than nine,” jokes Jeremy Maciak, a manager and former major-label A&R.
But label sources say that while the data can predict a hit single, it is far less effective at indicating who will become an enduringly popular artist. “We’ve all been burned to a certain degree,” says Tab Nkhereanye, a senior vp of A&R at BMG.
Arguing about the state of A&R is also arguing about the extent to which record companies can still provide artists with additional creative value. In theory, basing signing strategy on data helps labels unearth acts who are already exhibiting upward momentum and thus reduces the companies’ risk. And it’s a shortcut to nabbing market share in a hyper-competitive business where executive salaries — and shareholder confidence — are often tied to such metrics.
Relying on this type of quantitative research makes sense at a time when listeners have more choice than ever. Discovery has splintered in the era of personalization, and attention spans have evaporated. Since most of the levers the major labels once had to ensure exposure have lost their potency, signing artists who are already finding exposure on their own functions as an insurance policy.
“The world is different; the way that people connect with music is different; thus the A&R process has to be different,” says Jordan Weller, head of artist and investor relations at indify, a platform that helps independent acts find funding and support. “No executive can snap their fingers and guarantee that the world will buy into an artist anymore, because the consumers can finally decide what they want to listen to.”
Still, there is a concern — most pronounced among veteran A&Rs and managers — that the pendulum has swung too far towards analytics. “I have a saying to the A&Rs who focus all their time on data: You will be the first people replaced by a computer algorithm,” adds Mike Caren, who built up APG, his own label and publishing company, and served as a major-label A&R. He counsels younger employees, “don’t take the easy and short-term route of being 100% data reliant.”
All that data doesn’t communicate much about the artist behind the music. “It doesn’t tell the whole story,” Nkhereanye explains. “Can you perform live? Can you interview? Can you make more than two records that stream?”
In reality, managers and A&Rs say, few of the data-centric signings that landed big deals in recent years have been able to make even two tracks that stream. A number of these artists have been quietly dropped.
A former research-focused A&R acknowledges that the data-driven process surfaced a lot of duds. “I was getting frustrated because of the sheer amount of stuff coming up on research and then seeing it not really pan out a year later,” he says.
Labels are all also reviewing much of the same information — meaning everyone sees the next viral phenomenon within a day or two. “The companies get the same data, they’re all chasing the same artists,” longtime music attorney Don Passman recently told Billboard. If no one has a number-crunching advantage anymore, the labels that can provide the most creative assistance to the acts they sign might have the upper hand.
But that skill set may be in short supply precisely because the music industry has emphasized data so heavily in recent years. In Nkhereanye’s view, “companies started cutting back on paying great A&R talent. They would rather pay 10 research kids 100 grand and give them fake titles.”
“There are less A&Rs than ever that can help an artist cultivate their sound, and make better records for a broader audience,” adds J Grand, who has spent more than 15 years in A&R roles. “If all we do is rely on 0’s and 1’s, that’s a problem, especially with the rise of AI. We have to bring something else to the table.”
In this environment, “once the artist is signed, A&Rs don’t know how to help them,” explains Dave Gordon, a streaming consultant who worked at two major labels. And while not every artist needs help, some presumably would benefit from guidance.
In those cases, according to Gordon, the artist-label conversation becomes, “‘Do your thing; I don’t know how the f— you did it last time. Make another one for me, and I’ll turn it in for you.’”
Weiss distills the challenge facing contemporary A&R departments. “The people that have been able to catch things in that well of TikTok and data and research are all the ones that have been getting promoted,” he explains. Now, “the research well has essentially run dry. Everyone’s kind of looking around saying, ‘OK, how do we go back?’”
SiriusXM has launched a new program aimed at developing and breaking emerging artists, the company tells Billboard.
Created by the SiriusXM and Pandora programming and curation teams, the Artist Accelerator program will select six to 12 artists across a wide range of genres over the next year. All of them will receive focused programming for a sustained campaign across SiriusXM channels and Pandora stations, as well as ongoing marketing support from both brands.
The program’s inaugural artist is Def Jam/High Standardz signee Coco Jones, whose latest single “I.C.U.”, from her debut EP What I Didn’t Tell You, has been playing in accelerated rotation on SiriusXM’s The Heat and Heart & Soul stations since Oct. 21. On Pandora, “I.C.U.” has been added to various playlists and radio stations across the platform, including New R&B, Black Music Forever, Adult R&B, PLATINUM, Today’s R&B and Hip Hop Hits, Women in R&B and more. The streaming service is also featuring exclusive audio content from Jones via “artist takeover” modes currently running on the PLATINUM and Women in R&B stations, where she takes listeners through the process of recording the EP and hand-picks tracks from some of the artists who inspired her.
“Introducing our audiences to new artists and investing in those artists’ development is a core value of both SiriusXM and Pandora and we are excited to unveil our Artist Accelerator program to the industry,” said Steve Blatter, senior vp/general manager of music programming at SiriusXM. “The program brings together SiriusXM and Pandora to accelerate the growth of artists across our combined massive listener base.”
In addition to her burgeoning music career, Jones has been working as an actor in TV and film since she was a tween. The 24-year-old currently portrays Hilary Banks on Peacock’s Fresh Prince reboot, Bel-Air. On TikTok, where she boasts nearly 2 million followers, she is dedicated to upping representation for dark-skinned Black women.
“I genuinely could not be more excited to be partnered with SiriusXM and Pandora,” said Jones. “The way that they’ve supported me and found new ways to highlight my future while acknowledging my past, is iconic. There’s definitely more to come, this is just the beginning! I’m excited for y’all to come with me through the whole journey!”
SiriusXM is just the latest platform to introduce an artist development program. In 2017, Apple Music launched the artist spotlight program Up Next, while SoundCloud introduced First on SoundCloud the following year. And in 2021, Spotify launched Fresh Finds, an extension of the playlist hub of the same name that provides emerging acts with on- and off-platform support.
In 2018, Nielsen Soundscan’s year-end music industry report confirmed that R&B/hip-hop was the most popular genre in America. Nine of the 10 most consumed songs in the United States were hip-hop/R&B songs, and as streaming became the dominant way to consume music, eight of the 10 most streamed artists were rappers.
That report focused on 2017, but the period between 2015-2018 was a crescendo for the genre. Established artists like Ye, Jay-Z and Lil Wayne still had more in the tank; younger stars like Drake, Kendrick Lamar and Nicki Minaj put their mark on the culture; and rising stars like Pop Smoke, Juice WRLD, XXXTENTACION and Cardi B were already scoring RIAA plaques. Everything was pointing up.
Looking at the hip-hop landscape today, you might get a different feeling. Rap is still enormously popular, but its growth is slowing. Luminate’s mid-year report revealed that R&B/hip-hop still has the largest overall market share of any genre in the United States with 27.6% — but that’s a decline from last year’s 28.4%, even though it widened its lead at the top in terms of overall equivalent album units. The genre’s total on-demand streaming growth is up 6.2% in 2022, but that’s lower than the rate of the market overall, which is up 11.6%.
“I will say, I’m concerned,” says Carl Cherry, Spotify’s creative director and head of urban. Cherry says he’s been alarmed about rap since last year: “2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, those years felt magical. My concern is that the magic is gone.”
There’s a variety of reasons the genre’s future feels precarious. First, rap’s superstars like Drake, Kendrick Lamar and Post Malone are aging into a different chapter of their careers, less invested in chasing hits. This year, Drake dropped the dancefloor detour, Honestly, Nevermind, while Kendrick made the deeply personal Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers and Post Malone released his darkest album yet, Twelve Carat Toothache. The albums debuted with respectable numbers, but slid down the Billboard 200 relatively quickly after — and while each of their previous albums spawned Hot 100-topping smashes (“God’s Plan,” “HUMBLE,” “rockstar”), this time, between the three of them, only Drake’s “Jimmy Cooks” went to No. 1, where it lasted a week. Post told Billboard earlier this year, “I don’t need a No. 1; that doesn’t matter to me no more, and at a point, it did.”
Those artists are carrying even more weight because of rap’s second problem; a number of would-be superstars died young. The late Pop Smoke, Juice WRLD and XXXTENTACION were three of the most important rappers of the past few years, not only because they moved units but because they were stylistic innovators. Their premature passings leave a void at the genre’s center — one that has only widened with the further losses of Nipsey Hussle, Mac Miller, Lil Peep, King Von, Young Dolph and, most recently, PnB Rock.
“Unfortunately, we have those tragedies that don’t let those culture-shifters see out their days and fulfill their purpose for the sub-genre they’re repping,” says Letty Peniche, who hosts Power Mornings on Power 106 in L.A. “We didn’t just lose [XXX, Pop, Juice], it also halted that wave.”
Then there’s rap’s third problem: There aren’t as many hot prospects among rap’s rookie class.
“The last couple of years, we’re not seeing as many new stars emerge,” says Cherry. “[From 2015-2018], there were just a lot of guys we would see seemingly come out of nowhere and become huge stars and put up numbers that would rival people that have been established. We’re not really seeing that right now.”
It’s not like we haven’t seen breakout rappers in 2022 — artists like GloRilla, SleazyWorld Go and Yeat are talented and may have bright futures ahead of them. But with the exception of Yeat, their success is tied to hit singles and they haven’t established their bonafides via full-length projects. While they’ve performed impressively for newcomers, they haven’t put up near the superstar-type numbers Cherry refers to.
Meanwhile, some of rap’s most promising upstarts have seen their fortunes turn quickly. DaBaby’s 2020 album, Blame It On Baby, moved 124,000 album-equivalent units in its first week; after a couple of underperforming projects rehashing the same formula, 2022’s Baby On Baby 2 moved a mere 17,000 in its first week. Megan Thee Stallion won the Grammy for best new artist, but her Traumazine album did lower first-week numbers than her debut and it hasn’t spawned a hit close to “Savage.” Roddy Ricch scored the last major pre-pandemic No. 1 hit with “The Box,” but his last single as a lead artist, “Stop Breathing,” has yet to hit the Hot 100. One of 2022’s bright spots was watching Gunna ascend from Young Thug protégé to standalone star as his “Pushing P” became the kind of cultural meme rap routinely produces, yet his achievement was overshadowed when he and Thug were arrested on a RICO charge that may land them both in prison for years.
Some of this might have been inevitable. In many ways, the rap audience was primed for the shift to streaming, resulting in the genre over-indexing in its early years. “The movement of mixtapes out of the free music world of LiveMixtapes, DatPiff and blogs into monetized, proper releases was really key,” says Signal Records founder and CEO Jeff Vaughn, about the 2015-2018 period. “You had this segment of music consumption that had always flown under the radar, but now it was trackable, and there was money being made.”
As the pendulum swings the other way, the playing field is beginning to even out — as country, rock, pop and Latin catch up to hip-hop’s streaming advantage. At the same time, many artists from those genres — including this year’s most dominant artist, Bad Bunny — are now undeniably influenced by hip-hop, but their wins don’t count towards hip-hop’s market share.
Upheaval has become the norm in all genres over the past two years. The biggest factor was the COVID-19 pandemic, which put a pause on the entire music industry and hindered the momentum of countless careers. But there’s also the rise of TikTok, which has had a seismic effect on marketing — turning songs into viral sensations seemingly overnight and creating all sorts of breakout hits, but few lasting careers.
“What I’m seeing is, people stick around for the piece of the song that they like,” explains Peniche. “They don’t want to hear the rest of whatever song TikTok put in their mind. You don’t even know if you’re going to like the full song or even the artist. You fall in love with the snippet — but after that, what happens?”
Peniche adds that things like TikTok have aided in radio’s changing role in music, from breaking hits to simply reminding people of their favorites. While TikTok has helped fuel 2020s rap hits like BRS Kash’s “Throat Baby” and Popp Hunna’s “Adderall (Corvette Corvette),” as well as more crossover-ready breakthroughs like Doja Cat’s “Say So” and Jack Harlow’s “What’s Poppin,” it may already be seeing diminishing returns.
“There’s these songs that gain traction on TikTok but they don’t go all the way,” says Cherry. “They’ll have a lot of streams on Spotify, they’ll be added to big playlists maybe, but they don’t go the distance.”
Cherry also points out how TikTok has also helped keep older music, like J. Cole’s “No Role Modelz,” consistently successful. “The reality of the market is now, you’re not just competing with other new music, you’re competing with the best music period from past or present,” adds Vaughn. “In the meantime, you’re gonna have a lot of first week sales in the 10-30,000 range. Until something changes, that’s just probably the new reality of the business.”
These days, YouTube and TikTok celebrities are competing for attention with musicians, while today’s influencers may also be discouraging tomorrow’s would-be musicians. “People can get rich from their bedrooms now,” says Peniche. “People can get rich off of Twitch playing games. Like, ‘Why would I be out here hustling or going on the road for scraps if I can do something at home and get rich off of TikTok videos?’ ”
Vaughn thinks the problem goes beyond TikTok, though: “Is there more competition for people’s time now than there was five years ago? Yes. Are major [labels’] market share and influence declining relative to their ability to move the market? Yes. Is there more money, focus, attention and people in the hip-hop space now than five years ago? Yes. So all those things combined make it a very different landscape.”
The pandemic also upset the release schedule and forced concert cancellations. Cherry recalled a moment in 2021 when he asked two party promoters what was ringing off in the clubs. They struggled to come up with an answer besides Drake’s “Way 2 Sexy.” “What point in hip-hop history have we had a shortage of club bangers?” asked Cherry. “Never.”
Despite all these worries, there have been bright spots this year. Future is enjoying his biggest commercial year yet, with his I Never Liked You album posting the best solo first-week numbers of his career and “WAIT FOR U” becoming his first Hot 100 No. 1 as a lead artist. Lil Baby, Jack Harlow and Moneybagg Yo continue to be proven hitmakers. Rod Wave, Polo G and YoungBoy Never Broke Again are cult artists with huge followings. Doja Cat, Lil Nas X and The Kid LAROI toe the line of rap and pop, but have put up big numbers with their albums and scored massive crossover hits on the Hot 100.
“Overall, I’m still incredibly bullish on the art form,” says Vaughn. “It’s been here for 50 years, I don’t think it’s going anywhere.”
Ultimately, as Luminate’s mid-year report notes, hip-hop is still No. 1. But culture can’t afford to be creatively stagnant. To stay fresh, it needs to find a spark.
“I’m always worried about where it’s heading,” says Cherry. “But music is cyclical. I don’t think we’ll ever live in a world where hip-hop isn’t the most influential type of music and culture. That’ll never happen. Hip-hop will always be in this position where it just helps shape [culture] and makes everything move.”
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