Universal Music
Strong subscription revenue helped Universal Music Group’s first quarter revenue rise 11.8% year over year (or 9.5% in constant currency) to 2.9 billion euros ($3.05 billion at the average exchange rate in the first quarter), the company announced Tuesday (April 29). Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) also rose 11.8%, to 661 […]
Shares of Spotify rose 8.0% to $365.00 this week to lead all music stocks in a week the Billboard Global Music Index reached a new high and many of its largest components posted mid- to high-single digit gains.
The Swedish music streaming giant was boosted by a report by Pivotal Research Group that increased its price target to $510 from $460 and reiterated its “buy” rating. Spotify’s intraday high of $368.29 on Thursday set a new 52-week high for the stock and was its best mark since Feb. 21, 2021.
Spotify led the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) to a record high 1,873.87, up 4.1% for the week, as ten of the stocks posted gains this week, nine lost value and one was unchanged. After a 4.8% drop the week ending Sept. 6 and stagnating since March, the BGMI has gained 7.4% in the last two weeks and raised its year-to-date gain to 22.2%—more than two percentage points above the gains of the Nasdaq composite (up 19.6%) and the S&P 500 (also up 19.6%).
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Stocks generally had a good week after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday a rate cut of half a percentage point, the first time the central bank lowered the overnight borrowing rate since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic. Investors had expected the Fed’s move, though, and had priced the effect of a rate cut into stock prices. Still, the Nasdaq composite climbed 1.5% to 17,948.32 and the S&P 500 rose 1.4% to 5,702.55. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index improved 0.7% to 2,736.81 and China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.2% to 2,736.81. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 fell 0.5% to 8,229.99.
Warner Music Group gained 4.9% to $30.44. WMG’s Atlantic Music Group laid off about 150 people Thursday as part of a restructuring plan that began in February. The week’s intraday high of $30.88 was WMG’s highest price since reaching $32.34 on July 24. The company also announced in an SEC filing this week it secured a $1.3 billion term loan that will be used to repay an existing loan and pay associated fees and expenses.
Live Nation shares also gained 4.9% to $103.65 and brought its year-to-date improvement to 10.7%. Thursday’s intraday high of $105.42 was its highest mark since April 1 and less than $2 below its 52-week high of $107.24. The concert promoter scored a win in Portland, Ore., this week after the city council upheld an August decision to allow the development of a 3,500-capacity music venue that will be operated by Live Nation.
Two other promoters also posted gains this week. MSG Entertainment, rose 4.6% to $42.16, while CTS Eventim improved 1.2% to 87.90 euros ($98.23). Another live entertainment company, Sphere Entertainment Co., dropped 2.7% to $41.09.
K-pop companies’ modest decline was an improvement from their consistently steep drops in recent weeks. The four South Korean companies had an average loss of 1.2% this week. HYBE fell 2.4%, JYP Entertainment dipped 1.2%, YG Entertainment slipped 0.9% and SM Entertainment lost 0.2%. After surging in previous years, the quartet has an average year-to-date loss of 40.4%.
Universal Music Group fell 3.6% to 22.75 euros ($25.42) following its Capital Markets Day on Tuesday. Analysts generally felt UMG set reachable financial targets and presented a believable roadmap about its strategy for the next four years. The Amsterdam-listed company laid out a strategy to achieve 8% to 10% cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) for its subscription revenue and above 7% CAGR for total revenue.
Music streamer LiveOne had the biggest decline of the week, dropping 6.1% to $1.38. That put shares of LiveOne into the red for 2024 with a 1.4% year-to-date loss.
Universal Music Group and Spotify are in “advanced talks” over a high-priced, superfan tier of the streaming service that offers a better user experience than the standard subscription plan. The status of the negotiations were revealed by UMG CFO Boyd Muir on Tuesday during the company’s Capital Markets Day presentation in London. That a Spotify […]
Universal Music Group (UMG) and TikTok have struck a new licensing agreement which will soon bring UMG’s catalog of millions of sound recordings and songs back to TikTok after three months off the platform. Though it is unclear exactly when all of UMG’s catalog will return to the app, a press release about the new license says it will return in “due course” and the two companies are “working expeditiously” to return the music.
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UMG’s last license with TikTok expired at the end of January after negotiations soured between the two companies. UMG announced that its music would be pulled from the app starting Feb. 1 in a letter to its artists and songwriters, saying that TikTok refused to pay the “fair value” of music and that it had concerns about TikTok’s stance on AI and artist safety.
Eventually, over the course of February, millions of sound recordings and compositions in the UMG catalog were removed from TikTok, which has been known as perhaps the most effective artist promotion and marketing platform of the 2020s. This included the removal of superstars like Taylor Swift, BTS, Drake, Ariana Grande, The Weeknd, Lady Gaga, Lana Del Rey, Billie Eilish, Eminem, Nicki Minaj, Justin Bieber, Karol G and Post Malone. Its impact stretched even wider when UMG’s publishing interests were also removed from TikTok, which included many recordings released by other record companies.
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According to a press release about their new deal, UMG and TikTok will now enter a “new era of strategic collaboration” and that the deal “improves remuneration for UMG’s and artists, new promotional and engagement opportunities for their recordings and songs and industry-leading protections with respect to generative AI.”
The two companies will now collaborate to realize more monetization opportunities within TikTok’s ecommerce services, which the short-form video app has been leaning into in recent months, particularly with the launch of TikTok Shop. TikTok will also invest “significant resources into building artist-centric tools.” This will include integrating ticketing capabilities and better data and analytics.
To address UMG’s concerns about AI and artist safety, the press release says the app will strengthen safety for artists and fans and that the two companies will work together to remove unauthorized AI-generated music from the platform. Since the anonymous TikTok user Ghostwriter used the platform to release his song “Heart On My Sleeve” last year, which featured the AI voices of Drake and the Weeknd, TikTok has been a destination for AI voice parody songs, including one particularly popular original sound that paired an AI Lana Del Rey’s voice with Mitski’s “My Love Mine All Mine.”
TikTok will also “improve artist and songwriter attribution” as part of the deal, which will ultimately help UMG’s talent get paid for uses on the platform.
Lucian Grainge, Chairman and CEO, Universal Music Group, says of the deal: “This new chapter in our relationship with TikTok focuses on the value of music, the primacy of human artistry and the welfare of the creative community. We look forward to collaborating with the team at TikTok to further the interests of our artists and songwriters and drive innovation in fan engagement while advancing social music monetization.”
Shou Chew, CEO of TikTok, adds: “Music is an integral part of the TikTok ecosystem and we are pleased to have found a path forward with Universal Music Group. We are committed to working together to drive value, discovery and promotion for all of UMG’s amazing artists and songwriters, and deepen their ability to grow, connect and engage with the TikTok community.”
Ole Obermann, TikTok’s Global Head of Music Business Development, said: “We are delighted to welcome UMG and UMPG back to TikTok. We look forward to working together to forge a path that creates deeper connections between artists, creators, and fans. In particular, we will work together to make sure that AI tools are developed responsibly to enable a new era of musical creativity and fan engagement while protecting human creativity”.
Michael Nash, Chief Digital Officer and EVP, Universal Music Group said:“Developing transformational partnerships with important innovators is critical to UMG’s commitment to promoting an environment in which artists and songwriters prosper. We’re gratified to renew our relationship with TikTok predicated on significant advancements in commercial and marketing opportunities as well as protections provided to our industry-leading roster on their platform. With the constantly evolving ways that social interaction, fan engagement, music discovery and artistic ingenuity converge on TikTok, we see great potential in our collaboration going forward.”
Universal Music Group announced on Thursday (March 28) that its artists will soon have the ability to tease unreleased music on Spotify.
Sharing snippets of unreleased songs on social media has been one of the most popular promotional methods for artists during the TikTok era (sometimes to the chagrin of songwriters). In many instances, artists haven’t even finished writing the song that they tease. But fan enthusiasm can make these scraps of music go viral anyway, especially on TikTok, sending artists scrambling to write another verse, record a full song, and release it as soon as possible — hopefully to a rapturous reception.
The Universal Music Group announcement is notable because it comes as the company’s stand-off with TikTok nears the end of its second month. Official recordings of UMG acts are not currently available on the app. (Same goes for many, but not all, songs that feature contributions from UMPG songwriters.) While most UMG artists continue to use the app as a social tool to communicate with their followers, their ability to promote their music on TikTok is severely limited.
Teasing songs on Spotify represents a potential alternative for these acts. “We’re excited to broaden our relationship with Spotify through the introduction of new content offerings and collaborations that will bring deeper ‘social music’ experiences to the platform,” UMG chairman and CEO Lucian Grainge said in a statement.
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Spotify founder and CEO Daniel Ek added that “the forthcoming features will put more power in the hands of artists and their teams to help them authentically express themselves, efficiently promote their work, and better monetize their art.”
UMG did not say when its artists would be able to start sharing pre-release snippets on the platform. It’s also not clear the extent to which Spotify users will actively hunt for pre-release music on the streaming service — many prefer more passive forms of engagement.
TikTok, in contrast, excels at engaging those who see fandom as a participatory sport — they want to comment on unreleased demos and make their own remixes. And for younger listeners especially, the app is often a popular source of music discovery.
Midia Research found that TikTok is the second biggest driver of music discovery for Gen Z after YouTube. U.S. TikTokers “are nearly twice as likely to discover music on short-form video platforms than the average user of social or social-form video platforms,” according to a Luminate study released in November.
Spotify is then where many of these listeners go and listen to full songs they found on TikTok. To make this process even more friction-less, TikTok launched a new feature last year that allows users to quickly save music they find on the platform to Spotify and other streaming services.
But Spotify executives have been eager to tout the streamer’s ability to drive discovery on its own. “There’s a disconnect between where music is being teased and where music is actually being streamed,” Sulinna Ong, Spotify’s global head of editorial, said at the company’s Stream On event in 2023. “The most powerful time to reach fans is when they’ve chosen to engage with music, like when they open up Spotify.”
At the same event, Spotify co-president Gustav Soderstrom said that “Spotify recommendations drive close to half of all user streams.” “Each time your music gets played on a playlist like Release Radar, you receive, on average, three times more streams from that listener over the next six months,” he added. “And when a listener decides to follow you, they listen to, on average, five times more of your music.” This recommendation system sets Spotify apart from platforms that deliver “just a fleeting moment of viral fame.”
UMG also announced on Thursday that its publishing arm inked a deal with Spotify so the platform can share music videos in the U.S. Spotify music videos launched in beta for premium users in 11 countries — but not in the U.S. — earlier in March. At the time, Charlie Hellman, Spotify’s vp and head of music product, called videos “an important part of so many artists’ tool kits.
“It’s a natural fit for them to live in the same place that more than half a billion people choose to listen to music,” Hellman added in a statement.
UMG Nashville has launched Silver Wings Records, a distribution arm and independent artist services, fueled by Virgin Music Group’s global distribution network. Silver Wings Records will create custom campaign services for independent artists, offering options for developing and enhancing campaigns. Explore Explore See latest videos, charts and news See latest videos, charts and news UMGN’s […]
When Morgan Hayduk and Andrew Batey founded Beatdapp — a company which helps streaming services, labels, and distributors detect streaming fraud — at the end of 2018, they faced a major obstacle: The music industry was reluctant to acknowledge that streaming fraud was a problem.
“It used to be verboten to speak publicly about [it],” Hayduk told Billboard last year. “It was all behind closed doors. But I don’t think you can fix a problem until you accept its existence.”
The climate has changed dramatically recently. Last year, Universal Music Group began calling for changes to the streaming model, arguing that fraud and things like white noise and rain sounds were scooping up royalty income that should be going to actual artists. And Beatdapp announced on Friday (Jan. 19) that it’s entering into a strategic collaboration with UMG as well as partnering with SoundExchange (which collects performance royalties from digital radio stations and broadcast companies like SiriusXM) and the streaming service Napster.
“We’re at a point now where there’s a consensus that we have to address the problem” of streaming fraud, says Michael Nash, chief digital officer and executive vice president for Universal Music Group. “Beatdapp have really focused on understanding the problem and working with a number of different platforms to provide a very clear perspective about the scope of the problem. Providing that kind of leadership, driven by data analysis, has been really important.”
Hayduk defines streaming fraud as the leveraging of “bots, stolen accounts or manipulated platform features” to steal streaming income. The practice “hurts everyone who makes a living in the music industry and, left unchecked, creates this promotional race to the bottom where everyone believes they have to cheat to succeed,” he told Billboard last year.
“In an industry where it’s already hard to make something and then promote something and then get paid,” Batey added, “you should at least get paid correctly.”
As Beatdapp widens its network of partners, it gets access to more streaming data — the company was analyzing 2.2 trillion streams in 2023, up from hundreds of billions in 2022 — which in turn allows the company to improve its understanding of how fraudsters manipulate the streaming ecosystem and get better at identifying suspicious listening patterns.
“Napster provides Beatdapp with a daily feed of all usage on Napster’s services, and Beatdapp then uses its detection filters to identify likely stream manipulation activity based on certain (high) confidence levels,” explains Matthew Eccles, the streamer’s svp and general counsel. “Napster will then ensure that the streams identified by Beatdapp are removed from royalty reports for all licensors so that the market share calculations for all labels are not affected.”
Napster’s view is that it is helpful to engage a third party to detect stream manipulation because “it eliminates potential questions of bias when the results come back,” Eccles continues. “Third parties can help achieve consistency across the industry in relation to what is and what is not considered to be streaming fraud.”
Beatdapp also announced on Friday that it had raised an additional $17 million, money that will go towards hiring new data scientists and senior leadership and expanding into Europe and Asia.
“With the volume [of music on streaming services] jumping the shark over value — more than 150 million tracks and more than 100,000 uploaded every day — this has created a lot of issues,” Nash notes. “That level of volume has created a context for a lot of bad actor activity.”
Tackling these issues is complicated, but cracking down on fraud is “the least controversial item on the agenda,” Nash adds. “There aren’t a lot of advocates for fraud.”
Deezer plans to implement a new streaming model with Universal Music Group later this year — a step that Deezer CEO Jeronimo Folgueira called “the most ambitious change to the economic model since the creation of music streaming and a change that will support the creation of high-quality content in the years to come.”
In an announcement on Wednesday (September 6), Deezer said it would roll out this “artist-centric” system in the French market starting in the fourth quarter of 2023. The new model aims to reward artists and songs that are driving listener engagement while also de-prioritizing white noise and other “functional” audio. “The sound of rain or a washing machine is not as valuable as a song from your favorite artist streamed in HiFi,” Folgueira declared.
As part of the new model, plays racked up by “professional artists” — which Deezer defines as acts with more than 1,000 streams per month spread across 500 unique listeners — with a “double boost.” (The announcement did not define what that “double boost” entails.) Similarly, songs that are driving listener engagement — the metrics for measuring this were also undefined — will receive the same bump.
In addition, Deezer plans to replace “non-artist noise content” — the sounds of whales or washing machines — with its own functional music, while also excluding this audio from the royalty pool so that payouts to raindrop recordings don’t come at the expense of payouts to singer-songwriters. “We are now embracing a necessary change, to better reflect the value of each piece of content and eliminate all wrong incentives,” Folgueira said in a statement. “There is no other industry where all content is valued the same.”
“With this multi-faceted approach, music by artists that attracts and engages fans will receive weighting that better recognizes its value, and the fraud and gaming, which serves only to deprive artists their due compensation, will be aggressively addressed,” added Michael Nash, UMG’s evp and chief digital officer. He also noted that the model may change in the future: “As the ever-evolving music landscape continues its rapid transformation, UMG and Deezer will rigorously address the impact of these changes as we incorporate new insights from data analysis and fine-tune the model, as appropriate.”
UMG’s quest for a new streaming ecosystem has been a major talking point for the company since January. That month, in a letter to staff, UMG chairman/CEO Lucian Grainge called for the development of “a model that will be a win for artists, fans, and labels alike, and, at the same time, also enhances the value proposition of the [streaming] platforms themselves, accelerating subscriber growth, and better monetizing fandom.”
Since then, UMG announced partnerships with both Tidal and Deezer to try to determine what that model might look like. Streamers can do “a better job of monetizing these high integrity, high intense artist-fan relationships,” Nash told financial analysts in March. “We’ve been speaking with platforms… about the enhancement of offers to the consumer that reflect the engagement with artists that are really driving the economic models of the platform.”
Spotify CEO Daniel Ek, however, appeared less enthusiastic about implementing a major change to the streaming model during an earnings call in July. “Most studies we’ve done on this [show] that even if you change it to a user-centric or an artist-centric approach, it seldom leads to these gigantic differences that most people perceive it to do,” he said.
“But we’re always open to hearing how we can make the system [fairer] to more artists,” he added.
Two weeks into earnings reports for the second quarter of 2023, the music streaming business is showing that subscriptions — not advertising — are the dependable driving force behind the industry’s growth.
Subscriptions — which accounted for 65% of the U.S. recorded music business in 2022, up from 63% in 2021, according to the RIAA — aren’t affected by economic forces that influence how brands spend their advertising dollars. Consumers continue to pay monthly or annual fees for Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music, YouTube Music, Deezer and other offerings. Even faced with higher prices (see “pricing power” below), more people are opting for subscription services.
More information will be gleaned in the coming weeks from earnings results from Warner Music Group (Aug. 8), HYBE (Aug. 8), Sony Music Entertainment (Aug. 9), Tencent Music Entertainment (Aug. 15), Cloud Music (Aug. 24) and Anghami (no date set).
Based on earnings by Universal Music Group, Spotify, Deezer, Believe and Reservoir Media, here are three takeaways from reported results through Aug 4.
The subscription market is holding up well. Spotify beat expectations for both monthly active users (MAUs) and subscribers, “aided by improved retention and marketing efficiencies,” the company explained in its July 25 shareholder presentation. Spotify’s premium subscribers grew 17% year-over-year to 220 million, beating its guidance of 217 million. Spotify’s MAUs increased 27% year-over-year to 551 million compared to guidance of 530 million. Universal Music Group attributed subscription growth in its recorded music segment — 13% in the second quarter and 11.6% in the first half of the year — to “broad-based growth in subscribers across all major global platform partners.” Reservoir Media CEO Golnar Khosrowshahi cited Spotify’s “higher than expected subscriber numbers” in the company’s Aug. 2 earnings call and said its strong quarterly results “reflect increasing demand trends for streaming music globally.” Not all subscription services made gains, though. Deezer lost 100,000 subscribers from June 30, 2022, to June 30, 2023, and Pandora ended the quarter with 6.2 million subscribers, down 100,000 from 6.3 million a year earlier.
Services have pricing power. Spotify raised its individual subscription plan in the U.S. on July 24 to great fanfare. After all, the price had gone unchanged since the service launched in the United States in 2011, although the family plan price increased by $2 per month in 2021. Spotify is relatively late to the game, though. Deezer raised its price from 9.99 euros to 10.99 euros in January 2022 — a major factor in the company’s direct subscriber average revenue per user climbing 4.9% year over year. Apple Music and Amazon Music both raised their prices last year as well. And according to Deezer CEO Jeronimo Folgueira, the increase had “pretty much no impact on churn” — the number of subscribers who leave a service over a period — and “clearly demonstrated that music is highly undervalued, and that platforms like us have more pricing power than initially anticipated.” That said, Folgueira stated that Deezer’s guidance for full-year revenue growth does not include another price increase later in the year.
The advertising market continues to have challenges. At Spotify, music advertising revenue grew in the “mid-single digits” year-over-year, lower than the 12% (15% at constant currency) growth in total ad-supported revenue. That implies advertising revenue from podcasts, which was up 30% year-over-year, contributed to most of the growth. Spotify also noted “softer pricing due to the macroeconomic environment” that offset double-digit gains in impressions. Universal Music Group’s ad-supported streaming revenues were up 5% in the second quarter and 2% in the first half of the year. UMG’s CFO Boyd Muir said “it’s too early to call a positive turnaround in the market.” Believe is “still impacted by the weak ad-supported monetization,” said CFO/chief strategy officer Xavier Dumont. The advertising malaise extends to broadcast radio, too. Weak national advertising “remained the main factor driving a decline in total revenue,” Frank Lopez-Balboa, Cumulus executive vp/treasurer/CFO, said in the company’s July 28 earnings call. National brands appear likely to increase ad spending in the second half of the year, however, according to B Riley Securities analyst Daniel Day.
Universal Music Group announced a new partnership with Pocket.watch, a kids-content studio with a roster of 45 creators that boasts over 750 million subscribers, on Thursday (July 20).
As part of the deal, songs on Pocket.watch’s many YouTube videos — plus tracks from the company’s original series on Hulu and Roku — will be brought to streaming platforms. And several creators will release their own original songs in the months to come.
In a statement, Albie Hecht, chief content officer for Pocket.watch, said “music is a huge part of kids’ lives, and this mutually beneficial partnership provides a path for our expansive library of kids and family songs to reach beyond their appearance within YouTube videos. We’re proud to partner with Universal Music Group as they further expand their investment in the kids music space.”
“We continue to see growth in this exciting category and look forward to working with pocket.watch’s team and their family of creators,” added Andrew Kronfeld, Universal’s evp of international and label and artist ventures.
Pocket.watch was started in March 2017 by Chris M. Williams, Hecht (a former president of film and TV entertainment for Nickelodeon), and Jon Moonves. “We set out very intentionally to change the conversations around the creative economy and create a whole new digital-first category of franchises,” Williams told Variety last year.
The company’s hits include Ryan’s World (35.2 million YouTube subscribers) and Love, Diana (8.95 million); in 2021, the roster generated more than 4 billion hours of views. Pocket.watch also has a robust consumer products line — Colgate Ryan’s World Pocket Watch Extra Soft Spin toothbrush, for example, and Love, Diana dolls — linked to its various franchises. Earlier this year, Pocket.watch debuted 12 original series on Hulu.
The first batch of music to hit streaming will encompass songs from Ryan’s Mystery Playdate, Love, Diana, Onyx Monster Mysteries, Toys and Colors: Kaleidoscope City, and more.