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Welcome to Billboard Pro’s Trending Up newsletter, where we take a closer look at the songs, artists, curiosities and trends that have caught the music industry’s attention. Some have come out of nowhere, others have taken months to catch on, and all of them could become ubiquitous in the blink of a TikTok clip. This week: Lil Wayne’s “Lollipop” goes viral anew, d4vd follows up his streaming breakthrough with another slow-growing hit, and an independent Texas band enjoys major gains after an appearance on one of the most-watched TV premieres of the decade.
TikTok Takes Another Lick at “Lollipop”
Lil Wayne’s Tha Carter III smash “Lollipop” may have topped the Billboard Hot 100 back in 2008, but TikTok is taking to the song like it came out yesterday. The line “Okay, lil mama had a swag like mine / Even where her hair down her back like mine” is now the soundtrack to all sorts of random ephemera on the platform: One woman used it to soundtrack herself preparing for labor, a 92-year-old grandma used it to share that she had paid off her future funeral costs, and a pair of siblings used the song to poke fun at their dad.
There seems to be no rhyme or reason as to why users are loving Tunechi’s old Cash Money track so much, but the strange TikTok buzz has surely paid off: “Lollipop” is up 47% in weekly on-demand U.S. streams to nearly 3.3 million for the week ending Nov. 21. – KRISTIN ROBINSON
‘Yellowstone’ Fever Boosts Shane Smith & The Saints Songs
If you were one of the nearly 16 million people who watched the season five premiere of the Paramount Network smash family drama Yellowstone, you heard three songs – two as performed by the band within the episode – by independent Texas outfit Shane Smith and the Saints, a previously established favorite of characters on the show. Not surprising, then, that the songs would experience a streaming bump as a result, particularly the ones the band played themselves: “Dance the Night Away,” from 2013’s Coast album, rose 164.7% in weekly official on-demand U.S. streams to 107,000 for the week ending Nov. 17, according to Luminate, while the recently released “Fire in the Ocean” saw a 81% gain to 177,000. – ANDREW UNTERBERGER
Sped-Up? Slowed-Down? Either Way, Listeners Love ‘Limbo’
“Limbo,” the bruising rap showcase from Ontario MC Freddie Dredd, has started to snowball into a hit after being featured on his Freddie’s Inferno project in August — and the song is doing so in a variety of different formats. A slowed-down version of the track is taking off on TikTok, and so is a sped-up version; “Limbo” is being synched up to dramatic sequences in Call of Duty, as well as God of War: Ragnarok. But even in its original version, Dredd’s hard-nosed rhyming is connecting with listeners: weekly U.S. on-demand streams for “Limbo” increased over 90 percent during the week ending Nov. 17, up to 3.54 million, according to Luminate.
Dredd, who is signed to RCA Records, is no stranger to TikTok virality: his 2019 single “Cha Cha,” which sampled Lisa Ono’s “Sway It, Hula Girl,” became a breakthrough for the rapper in the early days of the app’s industry influence. Yet “Limbo” is quickly becoming his signature hit, and Dredd is well-aware of its success. “Out of all the music i have made ive never had a single song do so well in a single day,” he posted on Twitter last week after a particularly strong day for “Limbo” on Spotify. “thank yall so much for streaming my s–t, thank yall for making my dreams come true.” – JASON LIPSHUTZ
d4vd Goes Two for Two With Viral Hits
Teen singer-songwriter d4vd is certainly a newcomer to the music biz, but he’s already racked up a second major TikTok hit this year. First, his single “Romantic Homicide” went so viral it hit the Billboard Hot 100’s top 40 and led to a seven-figure deal with Interscope/Darkroom. Now follow-up “Here With Me” is also picking up steam, with hundreds of thousands of creations already on the app.
Focusing on the lyrics “I don’t care how long it takes / as long as I am with you / I’ve got a smile on my face,” users are posting videos of heartwarming videos they found on the Internet, sometimes with them on greenscreen reacting to it. One video shows a woman feeding a stray dog, another shows a “tired teacher” putting on a “happy face” before walking into his classroom to greet students. Users’ emotional attachment to the song has transferred to real streaming wins for d4vd, as the song has climbed steadily in plays over the past month – rising 69% in official U.S. on-demand streams from 2.6 million the week ending Oct. 20 to nearly 4.5 million the week ending Nov. 17, according to Luminate. – KR
Q&A: Randy Hutson, CEO of Production Resource Group (PRG)’s Music and Live TV Divisions, on What’s Trending Up in His World
Looking back at 2022, what are some of the biggest wins for PRG, which provides resources and pushes technical innovation in the live sector?
PRG continued our work elevating production for some of the world’s biggest tours this year. Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres tour has been a big moment for us, especially in terms of sustainability. Coldplay made a pledge to reduce their carbon footprint while touring, so our mission was to stay more sustainably-minded while not losing any of the magic fans have come to expect at their shows. To minimize CO2 emissions, the engineers at PRG made one of the show’s standout features – four huge 3D spheres – inflatable so they would collapse and take up ¾ of one truck. With traditional construction techniques the four spheres would have needed six for transport. This complex engineering had never been done before.
This year we’ve also provided production solutions for legendary artists like Metallica, Post Malone, Jack Harlow, and Elton John’s Farewell Tour, among many others. Some of the Las Vegas residencies we’ve worked on this year include Shania Twain, Carrie Underwood, and Aerosmith. It was also incredibly meaningful to do lighting and video for the Taylor Hawkins Tribute Show at Wembley Stadium.
What do you expect innovation (visual or otherwise) in the touring sector to look like in the next year and beyond?
Tours are being pressured to fill every stadium or arena seat, so one of the areas that we’re focused on is fan engagement. For example, we’ll be building on the success we had with the Indochine tour in Europe, where we positioned the audio speakers BEHIND a new transparent LED video screen, providing fans with an unobstructed view of the screens.
Efficiency in gear is increasingly important. Now, both lighting fixtures and projectors are being designed with LED and laser sources to produce a multitude of green benefits, allowing us to do more with less carbon footprint. And lastly, for years we’ve done large tours requiring many buses and trucks for gear – whatever we needed to execute the show design. But going forward, production and tour managers are looking at reverse engineering tours, i.e., how many buses and trucks do we want to have? Artists and their productions are looking for ways to improve touring by using companies with global footprints to cut down on equipment and people movement around the world. Fewer trucks, buses and planes moving will increase profitability (and lead to sustainability) allowing us to continue to do the work we love every day.
PRG has provided technical and logistical support for the Super Bowl halftime show for years. How has the halftime show evolved, and how will it continue to evolve with new tech?
The Super Bowl halftime show is unquestionably one of the most epic moments in an artist’s career, so we listen closely to what they are envisioning for each performance. That means some years the stage is more simplistic while others feature higher levels of spectacle. Overall, our team’s job is to ensure the visual experience is equally incredible for people in the stands and the millions watching at home. As technology and creatives have become more sophisticated, new tech has been implemented to make the show more cinematic, despite limited camera positions on the field.
You can really see this with The Weeknd in 2021 and the Dr. Dre & Co. performance in 2022 which used our proprietary 35LIVE!® technology. 35LIVE! elevates televised events by giving them a big-screen look and feel, replacing the traditional multi-camera approach. A team of technical specialists work together to produce astounding imagery, 100% live.
Fill in the blank: more people in touring/events should be thinking about ______.
Sustainability. It’s never been more important to take care of the environment. In 2017 PRG developed PRG SpaceFrame®, a touring frame design with ultra-light carbon fiber construction and collapsibility that reduces truck space by approximately 35 percent. This means less trucks and a lower carbon footprint. We’re going to see more governments requiring tours, fabrication companies, and production services companies to measure and report carbon emissions and supply safety reports.
We can also anticipate seeing more regulation around power consumption. Resources like fuel are going to be more costly. Research into replacing steel with bamboo in some fabrication applications could be a game-changer. We are also using recyclable materials in place of the hard scenic elements that the industry was built on. It’s time for our entire industry to focus on doing what’s good for the planet. – JL
Season’s Gainings: It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Thanksgiving
We all know about the annual Christmas bump that certain holiday perennials begin to enjoy on streaming as early as Nov. 1 – but do folks begin to anticipate Thanksgiving in the same way in the days leading up to the fourth Thursday in November? Well, the numbers aren’t as stratospheric, but slowly but surely, they’re creeping up there for some of the bigger titles. Matthew West’s “Gobble Gobble” is up 93% in daily on-demand U.S. streams from Nov. 15 to Nov 21 to 73,000, according to Luminate, while Ben Rector’s “The Thanksgiving Song” is up 64% over that same span to 45,000, and the Vince Guaraldi Trio’s “Thanksgiving Theme” is up 38% to 75,000.
As for Arlo Guthrie’s “Alice’s Restaurant Massacre,” the near-20-minute, Thanksgiving-set ‘60s story song traditionally played by classic rock and Triple A stations in full on Turkey Day, the numbers are still relatively small, just passing 15,000 daily streams on Nov. 21. But it’s also rising by 1,000-2,000 streams a day, and may be poised to explode (like so many post-dinner waist shirt buttons) this Nov. 24. – AU
In early October, Lil Yachty uploaded the 83-second track “Poland” to SoundCloud along with a grumpy message: “STOP LEAKING MY SHIT.” “Poland” consists of two keening hooks and some slack rhymes; a veteran publishing executive calls it “an idea, almost a tweet,” more than a song.
Either way, it’s a hit — it reached No. 40 on the Billboard Hot 100 — and it’s part of a larger trend: The average length of popular songs has been shrinking steadily for years. A 2018 study by San Francisco-based engineer Michael Tauberg concluded that songs on the Billboard Hot 100 shed around 40 seconds since 2000, falling from 4:10-ish to roughly 3:30. The average length of the top 50 tracks on Billboard‘s year-end Hot 100 in 2021 was even less, a mere 3:07. (Though this is a simple average, whereas Tauberg’s calculation was weighted by weeks spent on the chart.)
“Everyone’s aware of it — it’s a reaction to the culture of soundbites that we moved towards,” says Vincent “Tuff” Morgan, vp of A&R at the indie publisher peermusic. “I have producers in the studio this week just going through and making songs shorter.”
In this climate, writers are increasingly willing to ditch a third chorus and a pre-chorus — the musical alley-oop that sets up the hook’s slam dunk — according to the analytics company Hit Songs Deconstructed. And the portion of sub-three-minute top 10 hits ballooned from just 4% in 2016 to 38% so far in 2022. “Over the last two years, as I get demos back from artists, they’re consistently down to two minutes and 30 seconds or even two minutes,” says Caterina Nasr, senior manager of A&R at Elektra Entertainment. “Artists feel like they can express themselves quicker.”
Shorter songs aren’t exactly a new trend. Back in the early 1960s, little miracles of concision like The Chiffons “He’s So Fine” (1:52) topped the Hot 100 and The Beatles rose to international fame by releasing a series of snub-nosed pop missiles. More recently, Piko-Taro’s “PPAP (Pen-Pineapple-Apple-Pen)” made history as the shortest Hot 100 entry ever (45 seconds) in 2016. The following year, XXXTentacion‘s 17, which cycles through 11 songs in just 21 minutes, became a streaming sensation. In 2018, Travis Scott effectively mashed three 90-second songs into the massively successful “Sicko Mode.”
If the focus on brevity in the early 1960s was driven by the pace of AM radio, the streaming economy imposes its own pressures on song length. One theory holds that a concise track is more likely to spur multiple listens. “There’s charm to a short song because the person hits repeat — play it again, play it again,” according to Mitch Allan, a longtime writer-producer (Demi Lovato, Kelly Clarkson).
The other side of the same coin: “People are acutely aware of skip rates and how that relates to success on streaming services,” says Talya Elitzer, a former Capitol Records A&R who co-founded the indie label Godmode. Tracks with lower skip rates are prioritized by the platforms, and Elitzer believes that “a short song is less likely to be skipped.”
Most importantly, song snippets resonate with a generation of listeners used to short-form video apps. “To me this really started with the Vine era and Instagram,” says writer-producer David Harris (H.E.R., Snoh Aalegra). Brief clips have achieved a new level of commercial resonance in the music industry thanks to TikTok, where users repeatedly seize on fragments of unfinished singles and incorporate them into videos, making a mockery of the idea that a popular track must include a verse and a hook.
“Generally a song that pops off on the platform is based around a little moment,” says Elie Rizk, a writer, producer and multi-instrumentalist (Mazie, Remi Wolf). “Subconsciously you think about that: ‘Let’s pack a track with moments and try to hit the jackpot.’ I don’t feel the need to repeat a section three times — they’ve already heard that part; it doesn’t matter.”
What’s the difference between an explosive moment and a song? Since 2020, if not before, a heap of young acts have gone viral with the former and then scrambled to transform them into the latter — to build a full track around the snippet that captivated TikTok. Examples include Will Paquin’s flashy “Chandelier” (85 million), David Kushner’s woebegone “Miserable Man” (73 million), and Avenue Beat‘s goofy “F2020” (54 million).
As singles get shorter, though, the gap between a song and a hooky fragment begins to lose meaning. “To a lot of people, I think the snippet [they encounter on TikTok] is the song,” says Bart Schoudel, a longtime engineer and vocal producer (Pop Smoke, Selena Gomez).
Kuya Magik, a producer and DJ with more than 11 million TikTok followers, agrees. “If you go to a club and you watch people dance, they only dance to the 15 seconds of a song that’s famous on TikTok,” he says. “For the rest of it, they just sit there.”
For now, platforms like Spotify count 30 seconds of listening as a full play that triggers a royalty payout, so it makes sense to expand a musical idea to that length. But a generation native to TikTok may not require even 30 seconds to engage with the music. With that in mind, it’s easy to imagine that the length of singles will continue to shrink.
When a short verse goes viral on TikTok, “if that’s what the artist wrote and that’s what’s being used [on the platform], who’s to say that’s not the song?” asks Daniel Sander, chief commercial officer for the music-technology company Feature.FM. “The question is: How do you monetize that differently?”
Not many people can say pop star Lizzo gifted them a personal item from her wardrobe, but Aurielle Marie — writer of Gumbo Ya Ya, Georgia Author of the Year, Out 100 honoree and a major Lizzo fan — can.
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In an Oct. 27 TikTok posted to her account, Marie made a plea to Lizzo and asked to borrow her 2022 Emmys dress so she could have something wear to the Out 100 event, otherwise she would likely skip out on attending entirely.
“I know you know how it feels to be the biggest b—h in a room, and all of the scrutiny and hyper-visibility that comes along with that because I’ve watched you talk about it,” she said in the video, later adding, “I know you a girl for the girls, and I’m a girl and a girl, and I just need to know. I gotta ask. Can I please, please, please wear your dress from the 2022 Emmys?”
Though a few weeks went by without updates from Marie, a surprise showed up to her door on Tuesday (Nov. 15) — the author posted a video of her running downstairs to open a box from Lizzo. While the garment was not Lizzo’s 2022 Emmys dress, Marie promptly tried the gown from the box and burst into tears. (The dress Marie received was the stunning ruffled one Lizzo wore to the American Music Awards in 2019.)
“I might’ve gotten a few tears on your dress Lizzo, my bad babe. Words don’t suffice and thank you isn’t enough. But THANK YOU! I’m speechless,” Marie captioned the Nov. 15 video. “Ya’ll! A b—h is certified LIZZO-SIZED! And look at this gown! Out Magazine, here I come!”
Lizzo has yet to comment on Marie’s post, but she’s gearing up for an awards ceremony of her own — the singer was nominated for six awards at the 2023 Grammy Awards, including album of the year for Special and song and record of the year for “About Damn Time.”
Watch Marie’s TikTok videos below.
J-pop singer-songwriter Yuka recently livestreamed a compact set for fans as the featured artist of November on Billboard Japan and TikTok’s hybrid program NEXT FIRE.
NEXT FIRE is a show on TikTok Live that highlights the rising J-pop artists of the moment, based on Billboard Japan’s TikTok Weekly Top 20 chart. The collaborative project streams live performances and pre-recorded interviews by the featured act of the month to give fans an in-depth look at their artistry. Yuka’s showcase set included her breakout TikTok hit “Partner,” which has over 650 million views on the short movie platform.
Accompanied by guitarist Toshio Uchida and keyboardist Ken Edo for her compact studio concert, the 28-year-old singer-songwriter kicked off the set with “Marry me,” her mature yet cute vocals echoing over the soundscape created by an acoustic guitar and piano. “It’s only for a short time today, but we intend to enjoy this show together with you so feel free to clap your hands and sing along with us,” she said to viewers after the song, while Uchida played an airy melody behind her.
From there, the trio smoothly launched into “Hey girl!!!!,” a song with lyrics that speak to the listener, delivered through Yuka’s skillful blend of pop vocals and falsetto. She then sang the heartrending ballad “Ichirenboshi,” first accompanied only by piano and later joined by guitar, which added another layer to the arrangement. Her voice gradually grew stronger during the number and drew the audience into the gentle longing depicted in the lyrics.
“So many of you have used my songs in various videos on TikTok,” Yuka said before her next track. “I’d like to sing you the song that you all seemed to have enjoyed while using it to make memories with friends or delivering a loving message to the important people in your lives.” The three musicians then performed “Bestie,” the uplifting rhythm bouncing along as Yuka gestured for the viewers beyond the screen to clap their hands. Packed with phrases that make fans want to sing along delivered through a variety of vocal styles, the live rendition of the popular tune showcased Yuka’s appeal as a vocalist.
“The next song is one that I’m sure you all know,” she teased before her next-to-last track. “I’d be happy if you’d sing along with me.” The song was “Partner,” another viral hit on TikTok. The livestream’s comment section brimmed with excitement as fans hadn’t expected her to perform this number with a catchy melody and relatable lyrics.
After introducing her backing band, she closed her set with “Birthday Song.” This affirming, celebratory song set the tone for the grand finale. Yuka thanked the audience again during the outro of the tune and the set ended leaving a happy vibe.
A pre-recorded interview by Yuka will stream on Billboard Japan’s TikTok channel starting Nov. 11, and excerpts from the livestream can be seen on the singer-songwriter’s TikTok account.
Thundercat‘s “Them Changes” is steeped in funk history, with drums that nod to The Isley Brothers‘ “Footsteps in the Dark,” stutter-stepping at 82 beats per minute, and a wobbling bass line. On Sept. 22, the TikTok account Ezzsounds posted a simple remix of the track, pushing the tempo until the song catches the jitters. This new version was a world away from the slow-and-low original — at 114 beats per minute, it’s like a train threatening to jump the tracks. TikTokers loved it.
“By the next Monday, we had already seen the streams double,” says Will Slattery, vp of North American marketing operations for the independent label Ninja Tune. The company sent an official sped-up rendition of “Them Changes” to streaming services and worked with marketing companies to increase the new version’s exposure on TikTok. The single cracked Billboard‘s Hot R&B Songs chart in October, a first for Thundercat as a lead artist.
“Sped-up tracks feel like a thing, but I was not expecting it to happen to Thundercat,” says Josh Berman, who leads marketing efforts for the artist’s management company, Really Happening. “I’ve seen trends happen and they’re gone in 72 hours. We’re really blessed that this one’s still going.”
Sped-up versions of songs, especially older ones, have thrived on TikTok for years — Cafuné’s “Tek It,” Demi Lovato‘s “Cool for the Summer,” Ellie Goulding‘s “Lights,” Sam Smith‘s “I’m Not the Only One,” and Nelly Furtado‘s “Say It Right,” for example, all enjoyed streaming bumps thanks to the success of uptempo reworks. This style now appears to be on the verge of reaching a new level of mainstream exposure. “Sped up songs are becoming insanely popular,” says Tyler Blatchley, co-founder of the label Black 17 Media, which has producers working on pell-mell renditions of many major-label tracks.
“Back in the day, we used club remixes to diversify the visibility of a record,” explains Nima Nasseri, global head of A&R strategy for Universal Music Group’s music strategy and tactics team. “The purpose was to bring back visibility to the main version. Now people are discovering the main version from the sped-up or slowed one. Instead of spending $50,000 for a remix from a big-name DJ, you’re spending relatively minimal amounts [on a sped-up rendition] and getting much more return and reach.”
“These remixes have been a thing for a while,” adds 20-year-old Tristan Olsen (xxtristanxo on TikTok), who has amassed more than 3 million followers on the app with videos of him playing tempo-shifted edits, usually in a red-lit room, while sporting dark sunglasses. Happily for him, “the industry is catching up now.”
It’s easy to survey TikTok or scan streaming charts and conclude that songs which zip along at a breakneck pace are popular on the app. It’s much harder to explain why.
The genre known as nightcore, which also centers on music that’s sped up and pitched up, was popular long before the debut of TikTok. Nightcore eventually filtered into the PC Music scene, which spawned artists like SOPHIE and A.G. Cook, who went on to work with pop stars (Charli XCX, Madonna). But its hit-making power was negligible compared to TikTok’s sped-up song ecosystem.
Steven Pardo, digital marketing director at Secretly Group, believes that “in a video platform that prioritizes catching attention immediately, being able to get the impact of the lyrics across more quickly is advantageous.” On top of that, “dancers [on TikTok] love the chipmunk versions” of songs, according to Kuya Magik, a producer and DJ with more than 11 million TikTok followers.
Part of TikTok’s power also stems from the way it makes room for users to fiddle with songs and upload their versions of popular sounds, changing the stakes of fan engagement. “We’re seeing in consumer surveys how much Gen Z wants to actively participate in music,” notes Tatiana Cirisano, an analyst at MIDiA Research and former Billboard reporter. “They don’t just listen and consume passively; they make their own videos, remix the song.”
This ethos doesn’t only impact TikTok through sped-up tracks. The platform is awash in “sped-up versions, slowed-down versions, clap-track versions, versions that are super heavy on reverb, like turned-all-the-way-up-to-11 kind of sh–,” says Johnny Cloherty, co-founder of the digital marketing company Songfluencer. “Everyone’s experimenting with this stuff.” Jacob Byrnes, director of creator relations and content strategy for Universal Music Group’s music strategy and tactics team, recently had a meeting with a TikTok marketing company that informed him that 80% of the top 100 sounds on the app were tempo-altered; some sprint, while others crawl. (A rep for TikTok declined to comment.)
There are a number of popular TikTok pages that specialize in this material — not only KuyaMagik and xxtristanxo, but also Itsjovynn (9.7 million followers), Spxedupsongs (5 million followers), Speedysongs (2.7 million followers), and Bestspedup (2 million followers). Now artists and labels are paying some the creators in this niche to edit their tracks, seeking to harness their promotional firepower; these accounts seem to have captured some of the king-making abilities once reserved for top influencers like Charli D’Amelio and Addison Rae.
While some of these pages post remixes along with eye-catching visual clips, others don’t do much more than post a new version of a track next to its lyrics. Ezzsounds, which helped launch Thundercat’s “Them Changes” onto the Hot R&B Songs chart, hails from the latter camp; the account is more than 700,000 followers strong. Pardo from Secretly Group has his eye on the page Ex7stence (4.4 million followers), which recently helped popularize sped-up versions of songs by Phoebe Bridgers and Bon Iver. “The velocity of sounds that come off that page in the past couple of weeks has been fascinating,” Pardo says.
Historically, the music industry has not been comfortable with unauthorized remixes. Nasseri and Byrnes even initially encountered some resistance from artists’ teams when they started pushing to release official tempo-altered versions of singles. “It was six months of explaining to people what this is and begging them to approve it,” Nasseri says.
“There was a long period of ‘trust us on this,’” Byrnes adds. His pitch: “This is the new remix. This is better than a remix.”
Suffice it to say that “long period” of doubt has come to an end. “I see artists dropping the sped-up version with the official one on release date to try to see if that catches on and points back to the original,” says Johnny Minardi, vp of A&R at Elektra Music Group. “It’s become one of those alternate looks to try to start the song or get a little bit more life out of it.” Two marketers say it’s routine for them to pay TikTok accounts to put out edits of songs they’re promoting; the cost is usually between $50 and $200.
Interscope just released an accelerated version of Summer Walker‘s entire Last Day of Summer project, billing it as the “first sped-up album.” UMG does “bulk agreements” with Xxtristanxo for remixes of its music, according to Byrnes. “He has 3 million monthly listeners [on Spotify] from these remixes — they generate so much money for us and for these artists,” the executive says.
The Spotify account Sped Up Nightcore, which only posts uptempo remixes of songs from Warner Music Group, is earning close to 2 million plays a day, according to the Spotify for Artists app — numbers many acts would hack off an arm for. (While none of Sped Up Nightcore’s releases on Spotify have any public credit information, Warner is claiming ownership of most of these songs on YouTube; a rep for Warner did not respond to a question about the label’s relationship with the account.)
Kuya Magik, who also does remixes for UMG, says messing with a track’s tempo and posting it on TikTok “doesn’t always work — but if that sound goes in front of the right person, you’ve got a gold mine in terms of a viral song.” Case in point: Cafuné’s “Tek It – Sped Up” has more than 95 million Spotify streams, almost as many as there are on the original, which surely makes it one of the most commercially successful singles in this style. (Minardi signed the band to Elektra.) The popularity of the jittery “Them Changes” on TikTok led weekly streams of the original to triple from mid-September to mid-October, according to Luminate. Slattery from Ninja Tune says streams of the rest of Thundercat’s catalog increased as well.
Most executives who have engaged with the sped-up ecosystem agree that it’s particularly effective for reviving songs that are more than 18 months old. “It’s a great avenue for promoting catalog tracks,” says Slattery. “People enjoy sped-up versions of songs that they already know” — like “Them Changes,” which already had more than 150 million Spotify streams before its recent surge. “When there’s familiarity with the song to begin with,” Slattery continues, “it helps it go farther and increases demand.”
That means there’s a potential opportunity for record companies. “If I was a label with a big catalog, I would start creating three to five versions of all my biggest hits with different tempos,” Cloherty says. “I would just have a producer on staff creating them nonstop all day every day.”
“What would ‘Bridge Over Troubled Water’ sound like sped up?” he wonders. “I don’t know. But that could be the next TikTok hit.”
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In September, “Dumb Dumb” — a song by mazie featured in the Netflix teen drama Do Revenge — caught a wave on TikTok, and listenership grew exponentially. Over the course of two weeks, “the record went from doing around 10,000 streams per day to around 1.4 million per day and has sustained since,” says Max Gredinger, who manages the 23-year-old artist. “We saw increases across the rest of her catalog as well, which showed new fans were sticking around to learn more about mazie and her music.”
Artists and executives compare success on TikTok to the lottery — it often seems just that random. But crucially, the payout on a winning ticket doesn’t come from TikTok itself. The financial rewards accrue outside the platform in the form of royalties from streaming surges or a label advance, with seven-figure deals routinely thrown at viral acts in recent years. TikTok, which has built a thriving business based largely on users syncing videos to music, pays “almost nothing,” according to one music distribution executive.
There isn’t a fixed rate for music on TikTok; labels and distributors negotiate licenses individually. But one thing appears constant: “The numbers are horrifying,” says one manager who has had several songs take off on the app and shared his royalty statements with Billboard. A marketer who oversaw the campaign for a single that was used in roughly half a million TikTok videos reports that his artist took home less than $5,000 from the platform, despite the views numbering in the billions. TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, “doesn’t view music as a value add,” says another senior executive. “They just view music as a cost center they have to limit as much as possible.”
So far, ByteDance has been very successful in doing just that. One indie-label head shared several months of royalty information indicating that 1 million views on TikTok leads to about $8 — actually a better rate than the one exhibited on three other indie labels’ most recent statements that were shared with Billboard. In contrast, managers say that while payouts from YouTube vary, 1 million views will usually earn somewhere between $500 and $2,000.
It’s surely not a coincidence that music industry complaints about the money flowing from TikTok are gaining traction as the major labels are negotiating licenses with ByteDance, which is planning to expand its streaming service, Resso, beyond test markets in Brazil, India and Indonesia. Speaking at a recent industry conference in Singapore, Universal Music Group (UMG) CEO Lucian Grainge warned the music business of a value gap “forming fast in the new iterations of short-form video.”
Adding to that sense of a value gap: As TikTok’s business expands — gaining more users and selling billions of dollars in advertisements — labels and distributors do not participate in that growth.
In a statement, TikTok global head of music Ole Obermann said: “We’re proud of the partnerships we are building with the industry and artists, and we are confident that we are enhancing musical engagement.” He added, “That translates directly to more financial and creative opportunities for music creators.”
Part of the debate over how much artists should earn from TikTok stems from a debate about the nature of the platform itself. TikTok is video-based, and Obermann has pointedly said that it is “not a streaming platform.” He reiterated this in his statement to Billboard: “Our community comes to TikTok to watch videos, not to listen to full-length tracks.”
But the app is already threatening established streaming platforms, which must battle for ear time with TikTok’s additive clips. And some in the music industry dispute Obermann’s claim — they already see a generational shift where “some people have a TikTok playlist and just use it as their music service,” as one indie-label head puts it. “Much of the [music] ‘discovery’ that happens on TikTok is consumption,” Mark Mulligan, managing director for music consultancy MIDiA Research, wrote in a recent blog post.
Sources say that individual labels and distributors have different deals with ByteDance, which negotiates lump-sum upfront payments to use their recordings on TikTok for a set period of time. (Since users can upload their own videos — with the music of their choice — to TikTok, ByteDance has added leverage in these negotiations. If a label doesn’t come to an agreement with the company, it will have to devote a good deal of time and resources to issuing takedowns.) In addition, each label and distributor can make its own decision about how to parcel out those payments to artists.
Many of the sources who spoke for this story are paid by their labels or distributors according to the amount of individual videos uploaded that incorporate their songs. Reports from one indie-label executive showed that acts on his roster earned around $150 from TikTok for roughly 100,000 videos made with their music. A manager who works with several artists who have had successful TikTok songs shared reports for individual tracks: One single brought in around $100 after being used in about 60,000 clips, while another earned $350 from over 80,000 videos.
Other sources say they see only TikTok views, rather than video creations, on the royalty reports they receive from their label or distributor — or make the decision to rely on views to calculate TikTok payouts internally. “If you’re paying based on creations, that’s saying it doesn’t matter if a song is heard one time or 1 billion times, and that would really devalue music,” says the indie-label head.
When executives examine TikTok payouts compared with views on platform, the money made seems even more minuscule. “TikTok doesn’t pay out nearly what any other view pays,” says a head of a record company that is distributed by a major. “It’s astronomically lower.”
Some in the industry who value TikTok as a marketing tool note that money flowing to the music industry has improved over time. And several sources compared the current situation to the music industry’s combative early relationship with YouTube.
In Singapore, Grainge warned of “repeating past mistakes,” citing both MTV and YouTube. “We were given a lot of reasons why our artists shouldn’t get paid,” Grainge told attendees. “People said, ‘It’s great promotion,’ ‘Or you can use it as a platform for discovering new artists’ … technology platforms were built on the backs of the artists’ hard work.”
Grainge called on key players to protect music’s “cultural and commercial value.” And the senior executive who believes that ByteDance sees music as a “cost center” expressed a similar sentiment. ByteDance “needs to move to a more rational model that equates more value with what is driving their business,” he says. “Only pressure is going to get them there.”
This story originally appeared in the Nov. 5, 2022, issue of Billboard.
TikTok creators will soon be handed a fresh set of tools to soundtrack their videos and potentially make hit songs when a new in-app platform created by Simon Cowell’s Syco Entertainment company, in partnership with Universal Music Group and Samsung, launches on the platform later this month.
Called StemDrop, the initiative will provide TikTok’s more than 1 billion monthly users with access to music “stems” (the isolated components of a song, such as drum tracks or individual vocal parts) from an exclusive new track composed by hit songwriters Max Martin, Savan Kotecha and Ali Payami entitled “Red Lights,” which creators can then use to record and share their own versions.
The project was conceived by British music mogul Cowell and entertainment executive Tim Van Rongen in partnership with Universal Music imprint Republic Records and Samsung.
“With tens of thousands of songs uploaded every day this idea will give aspiring artists the opportunity to collaborate with some of the most successful songwriters in the world,” said Cowell in a statement announcing the project.
Sir Lucian Grainge, chairman and CEO of Universal Music Group, paid tribute to the “incredible team” Cowell has assembled to launch the platform, “harnessing the scale of TikTok, to leverage the artistry of creators worldwide.”
StemDrop debuts on Oct. 26, when 60 seconds of “Red Lights” will be exclusively released on TikTok, along with individual “stems” from the track which can be accessed through a dedicated micro-site or an in-app StemDrop Mixer, enabling users to play with production effects and create new versions of the song.
A spokesperson for StemDrop tells Billboard that Universal/Republic Records retain ownership of the master recording of “Red Lights”, the publishers own their share and with any future versions, the contribution of any new creator will be added to the royalty split.
It’s not clear if Martin — who co-wrote and produced multiple Billboard Hot 100 No. 1s, including Britney Spears’ “…Baby One More Time,” Taylor Swift’s “Shake It Off” and The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights” – or “Red Lights” co-writers Kotecha and Payami will be involved with the platform beyond its first phase, which is officially titled “’StemDrop’ – A Song for the World.”
Following its launch, a StemDrop profile on TikTok will share new versions of the track from around the world, curated by the platform, Syco, Republic Records and Universal Music Group. TikTok music curator Ari Elkins, singer-songwriter Astrid S and digital creator Your Boy Moyo will act as global ambassadors for StemDrop and host daily content on the @StemDrop TikTok channel. Syco Entertainment and Republic Records will provide creative direction and drive the StemDrop talent discovery program going forward, according to a press release from TikTok.
“Every day, brilliant, undiscovered artists and songwriters turn to TikTok to share their music and find a global audience,” said Ole Obermann, Global Head of Music at TikTok. “StemDrop will put a spotlight on this talent and act as a springboard to help them build their careers.”
TikTok’s former U.S. head of content partnerships, Bryan Thoensen, has joined Spotify to oversee the company’s content strategy and partnerships with individual audio creators, known as the talk creator content and partnerships team.
Thoensen will report up to Max Cutler, who was promoted earlier this year to lead Spotify’s partnerships with creators and now holds the title of vp of talk creator content. In his new role at Spotify, Thoensen will also oversee the team’s business development and acquisitions as part of the audio giant’s larger exclusive podcast strategy.
“Bryan’s knowledge of the creator landscape will be critical as we build out our platform strategy with the goal of becoming a true platform beyond distribution, and reinforce our mission of building trust with creators,” Cutler wrote in a memo to staff.
Prior to joining Spotify, where the executive began meeting with the talk creator content and partnerships team in the past few weeks, Thoensen oversaw TikTok’s relationships with top public figures and managed relationships with brands like the NFL, NBA, Condé Nast and NBC. He was also formerly a svp for original entertainment at Fullscreen and a director of content for Hulu’s original programming following a roughly six-year career at WME.
Thoensen will remain based in Los Angeles.
This article was originally published by The Hollywood Reporter.
In 2018, Nielsen Soundscan’s year-end music industry report confirmed that R&B/hip-hop was the most popular genre in America. Nine of the 10 most consumed songs in the United States were hip-hop/R&B songs, and as streaming became the dominant way to consume music, eight of the 10 most streamed artists were rappers.
That report focused on 2017, but the period between 2015-2018 was a crescendo for the genre. Established artists like Ye, Jay-Z and Lil Wayne still had more in the tank; younger stars like Drake, Kendrick Lamar and Nicki Minaj put their mark on the culture; and rising stars like Pop Smoke, Juice WRLD, XXXTENTACION and Cardi B were already scoring RIAA plaques. Everything was pointing up.
Looking at the hip-hop landscape today, you might get a different feeling. Rap is still enormously popular, but its growth is slowing. Luminate’s mid-year report revealed that R&B/hip-hop still has the largest overall market share of any genre in the United States with 27.6% — but that’s a decline from last year’s 28.4%, even though it widened its lead at the top in terms of overall equivalent album units. The genre’s total on-demand streaming growth is up 6.2% in 2022, but that’s lower than the rate of the market overall, which is up 11.6%.
“I will say, I’m concerned,” says Carl Cherry, Spotify’s creative director and head of urban. Cherry says he’s been alarmed about rap since last year: “2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, those years felt magical. My concern is that the magic is gone.”
There’s a variety of reasons the genre’s future feels precarious. First, rap’s superstars like Drake, Kendrick Lamar and Post Malone are aging into a different chapter of their careers, less invested in chasing hits. This year, Drake dropped the dancefloor detour, Honestly, Nevermind, while Kendrick made the deeply personal Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers and Post Malone released his darkest album yet, Twelve Carat Toothache. The albums debuted with respectable numbers, but slid down the Billboard 200 relatively quickly after — and while each of their previous albums spawned Hot 100-topping smashes (“God’s Plan,” “HUMBLE,” “rockstar”), this time, between the three of them, only Drake’s “Jimmy Cooks” went to No. 1, where it lasted a week. Post told Billboard earlier this year, “I don’t need a No. 1; that doesn’t matter to me no more, and at a point, it did.”
Those artists are carrying even more weight because of rap’s second problem; a number of would-be superstars died young. The late Pop Smoke, Juice WRLD and XXXTENTACION were three of the most important rappers of the past few years, not only because they moved units but because they were stylistic innovators. Their premature passings leave a void at the genre’s center — one that has only widened with the further losses of Nipsey Hussle, Mac Miller, Lil Peep, King Von, Young Dolph and, most recently, PnB Rock.
“Unfortunately, we have those tragedies that don’t let those culture-shifters see out their days and fulfill their purpose for the sub-genre they’re repping,” says Letty Peniche, who hosts Power Mornings on Power 106 in L.A. “We didn’t just lose [XXX, Pop, Juice], it also halted that wave.”
Then there’s rap’s third problem: There aren’t as many hot prospects among rap’s rookie class.
“The last couple of years, we’re not seeing as many new stars emerge,” says Cherry. “[From 2015-2018], there were just a lot of guys we would see seemingly come out of nowhere and become huge stars and put up numbers that would rival people that have been established. We’re not really seeing that right now.”
It’s not like we haven’t seen breakout rappers in 2022 — artists like GloRilla, SleazyWorld Go and Yeat are talented and may have bright futures ahead of them. But with the exception of Yeat, their success is tied to hit singles and they haven’t established their bonafides via full-length projects. While they’ve performed impressively for newcomers, they haven’t put up near the superstar-type numbers Cherry refers to.
Meanwhile, some of rap’s most promising upstarts have seen their fortunes turn quickly. DaBaby’s 2020 album, Blame It On Baby, moved 124,000 album-equivalent units in its first week; after a couple of underperforming projects rehashing the same formula, 2022’s Baby On Baby 2 moved a mere 17,000 in its first week. Megan Thee Stallion won the Grammy for best new artist, but her Traumazine album did lower first-week numbers than her debut and it hasn’t spawned a hit close to “Savage.” Roddy Ricch scored the last major pre-pandemic No. 1 hit with “The Box,” but his last single as a lead artist, “Stop Breathing,” has yet to hit the Hot 100. One of 2022’s bright spots was watching Gunna ascend from Young Thug protégé to standalone star as his “Pushing P” became the kind of cultural meme rap routinely produces, yet his achievement was overshadowed when he and Thug were arrested on a RICO charge that may land them both in prison for years.
Some of this might have been inevitable. In many ways, the rap audience was primed for the shift to streaming, resulting in the genre over-indexing in its early years. “The movement of mixtapes out of the free music world of LiveMixtapes, DatPiff and blogs into monetized, proper releases was really key,” says Signal Records founder and CEO Jeff Vaughn, about the 2015-2018 period. “You had this segment of music consumption that had always flown under the radar, but now it was trackable, and there was money being made.”
As the pendulum swings the other way, the playing field is beginning to even out — as country, rock, pop and Latin catch up to hip-hop’s streaming advantage. At the same time, many artists from those genres — including this year’s most dominant artist, Bad Bunny — are now undeniably influenced by hip-hop, but their wins don’t count towards hip-hop’s market share.
Upheaval has become the norm in all genres over the past two years. The biggest factor was the COVID-19 pandemic, which put a pause on the entire music industry and hindered the momentum of countless careers. But there’s also the rise of TikTok, which has had a seismic effect on marketing — turning songs into viral sensations seemingly overnight and creating all sorts of breakout hits, but few lasting careers.
“What I’m seeing is, people stick around for the piece of the song that they like,” explains Peniche. “They don’t want to hear the rest of whatever song TikTok put in their mind. You don’t even know if you’re going to like the full song or even the artist. You fall in love with the snippet — but after that, what happens?”
Peniche adds that things like TikTok have aided in radio’s changing role in music, from breaking hits to simply reminding people of their favorites. While TikTok has helped fuel 2020s rap hits like BRS Kash’s “Throat Baby” and Popp Hunna’s “Adderall (Corvette Corvette),” as well as more crossover-ready breakthroughs like Doja Cat’s “Say So” and Jack Harlow’s “What’s Poppin,” it may already be seeing diminishing returns.
“There’s these songs that gain traction on TikTok but they don’t go all the way,” says Cherry. “They’ll have a lot of streams on Spotify, they’ll be added to big playlists maybe, but they don’t go the distance.”
Cherry also points out how TikTok has also helped keep older music, like J. Cole’s “No Role Modelz,” consistently successful. “The reality of the market is now, you’re not just competing with other new music, you’re competing with the best music period from past or present,” adds Vaughn. “In the meantime, you’re gonna have a lot of first week sales in the 10-30,000 range. Until something changes, that’s just probably the new reality of the business.”
These days, YouTube and TikTok celebrities are competing for attention with musicians, while today’s influencers may also be discouraging tomorrow’s would-be musicians. “People can get rich from their bedrooms now,” says Peniche. “People can get rich off of Twitch playing games. Like, ‘Why would I be out here hustling or going on the road for scraps if I can do something at home and get rich off of TikTok videos?’ ”
Vaughn thinks the problem goes beyond TikTok, though: “Is there more competition for people’s time now than there was five years ago? Yes. Are major [labels’] market share and influence declining relative to their ability to move the market? Yes. Is there more money, focus, attention and people in the hip-hop space now than five years ago? Yes. So all those things combined make it a very different landscape.”
The pandemic also upset the release schedule and forced concert cancellations. Cherry recalled a moment in 2021 when he asked two party promoters what was ringing off in the clubs. They struggled to come up with an answer besides Drake’s “Way 2 Sexy.” “What point in hip-hop history have we had a shortage of club bangers?” asked Cherry. “Never.”
Despite all these worries, there have been bright spots this year. Future is enjoying his biggest commercial year yet, with his I Never Liked You album posting the best solo first-week numbers of his career and “WAIT FOR U” becoming his first Hot 100 No. 1 as a lead artist. Lil Baby, Jack Harlow and Moneybagg Yo continue to be proven hitmakers. Rod Wave, Polo G and YoungBoy Never Broke Again are cult artists with huge followings. Doja Cat, Lil Nas X and The Kid LAROI toe the line of rap and pop, but have put up big numbers with their albums and scored massive crossover hits on the Hot 100.
“Overall, I’m still incredibly bullish on the art form,” says Vaughn. “It’s been here for 50 years, I don’t think it’s going anywhere.”
Ultimately, as Luminate’s mid-year report notes, hip-hop is still No. 1. But culture can’t afford to be creatively stagnant. To stay fresh, it needs to find a spark.
“I’m always worried about where it’s heading,” says Cherry. “But music is cyclical. I don’t think we’ll ever live in a world where hip-hop isn’t the most influential type of music and culture. That’ll never happen. Hip-hop will always be in this position where it just helps shape [culture] and makes everything move.”