The Ledger
With all apologies to Charli XCX, the 2024 concert season should have been dubbed “VIP summer” for the amount of upselling done by U.S. amphitheaters.
At Live Nation amphitheaters, revenue from VIP clubs was up 19% and VIP ticket premium revenue for major festivals was up more than 20% in the third quarter. Earlier this year, VIP/premium offerings represented 9% of Live Nation’s overall amphitheater business but “should be 30% to 35%,” CEO Michael Rapino told investors in February.
Amphitheaters where Live Nation controls the food and beverage experiences have the potential to deliver more fan spending. Converting an area of grass into a VIP club provides 20% to 30% returns on investment, Rapino explained. At Northwell at Jones Beach Theater, for example, Live Nation took the 15,000-seat venue from no premium offerings to three premium tiers. Of the 40 U.S. amphitheaters in its portfolio, the company could “Jonesify” half of them, Rapino said during an investor call on Wednesday (Nov. 13).
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Diving headfirst into VIP pricing is sure to help Live Nation’s bottom line. The company believes premium offerings can add $200 million in adjusted operating income per year, according to its investor presentation. This year, VIP net per-fan spending will have grown at 20% annually since 2019, well ahead of overall net fan spending growth of 8% annually.
From exclusive lounges to fan meet-and-greets with artists, the concert business has been better than other music industry segments at filtering customers according to their willingness to pay. VIP status became standard practice at music festivals to separate the people who can afford a $400 ticket to camp in a grass field and those who can afford deluxe accommodations, food and beverage, and transportation. The year-old Sphere in Las Vegas takes customer segmentation to a new level: Tickets are relatively expensive for a single concert without considering travel and accommodation — which Live Nation bundles with Sphere tickets through Vibee, a destination experience company it founded in 2023.
It may be ahead of other music companies, but Live Nation is merely following practices familiar to companies such as airlines, which charge more for early boarding, and theme parks, where paying a premium allows you to spend less time standing in line for rides. Insurance companies offer multiple tiers of services that include add-ons such as “accident forgiveness.” Everywhere you look, there’s an expensive option that’s out of reach for most consumers but well worth the value to others.
The wave of upselling now extends to VIP tiers in music streaming. Last week, Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) announced it has 10 million Super VIP subscribers accounting for 8.4% of its 119 million subscribers. Super VIP, launched in the first quarter of 2022, provides such perks as better sound quality, priority access to music content and live event tickets. With a cost five times the normal subscription tier, Super VIP subscriptions helped TME’s average revenue per user increase 5% from the prior-year period. That success with VIP pricing is likely a harbinger of things to come. A single tier may not deliver the kind of profitability investors now demand.
“I think Spotify and the labels, long ago, realized this ‘one price for everybody’ thing gets these companies off the ground, but ultimately it’s not sustainable,” says pricing strategy consultant Rafi Mohammed, who espouses a strategy he calls “good-better-best” and encourages companies to create more valuable tiers of products and services for subsets of customers who are willing to pay extra. “If you’re a company and you’re not doing it, you’re making a mistake,” he says. “There are always going to be higher-end people who are willing to pay more for a more enhanced experience.”
With the current music streaming model relatively unchanged for two decades, music companies are increasingly engaging in the kind of customer segmentation taught in business schools. Companies that want to deliver strong, sustained growth are looking at ways to provide more valuable — and more expensive — experiences to those customers willing to pay for them.
Record labels are itching for a high-priced streaming subscription tier that would produce greater royalties. Spotify’s VIP tier — for lack of a better term — seems all but inevitable at this point. In September, Universal Music Group (UMG) COO (then CFO) Boyd Muir said the company was in “advanced talks” with the streamer for a high-priced tier that offers a better user experience than standard subscription plans. Spotify CEO Daniel Ek lifted the veil on a pending VIP plan in July, saying it would “probably” be priced at $17 or $18 per month and provide subscribers with “a lot more control, a lot higher quality across the board, and some other things that I’m not ready to talk about yet.”
UMG has said that internal market research shows 23% of subscribers would be willing to pay more for a VIP experience. But Will Page, Spotify’s former chief economist, isn’t sure Spotify is ready for a VIP tier. “It needs to walk before it can run towards a VIP platform,” he says.
Since the days of pre-Spotify subscription services such as Rhapsody, the basis $9.99 (in the U.S.) price was raised only recently but hasn’t kept pace with inflation. Spotify launched in the U.S. in 2011 and didn’t raise the individual premium price to $10.99 until 2023. Had the price kept pace with inflation, that $9.99 tier would have cost $13.50 by the time the price hike took effect. While video-on-demand streaming platforms such as Netflix have consistently raised prices over the years, music platforms like Spotify refrained, keeping their prices unchanged for fear higher prices would stunt their growth. “I would love to see the industry earn its stripes in showing pricing power before it goes to base two, which is market screening power,” says Page.
In the meantime, the music business has other ways to cater to VIPs, including a new slate of “superfan” platforms and vinyl records. Vinyl mimics a VIP strategy by upselling fans to an expensive physical item over low-value online streaming. And just as film studios use a so-called “windowing” strategy by releasing movies to theaters before streaming platforms, artists and labels are increasingly selling vinyl LPs ahead of their streaming street dates — a strategy that’s been largely absent in music since 2016. To Page, artists and labels are missing a big opportunity by not using vinyl to create a VIP release window.
“In America alone, vinyl is going to be a billion-dollar business,” says Page, “and the people who can sell it are the types of artists who would appeal to a VIP strategy.”
Peering over U.S. borders at the rest of the world, the recorded music business looks like the land of opportunity. The U.S. is certainly lucrative, but it’s also hyper-competitive. While the three major labels have locked up most of the States’ recorded music revenues — they distribute many indies, too — they command a far lower share internationally.
A new estimate of independent labels’ market share shows why major labels’ investments and acquisitions in foreign territories are so common. On an ownership basis, independent artists and labels had a 46.7% share of the global recorded music business in 2023, according to a new MIDiA Research report, with independent labels taking a 40.8% share while artist-direct distributors such as Ditto Music and TuneCore having a 5.9% share. (The data, collected through an online survey of independent labels, accounts for 93% of all global revenues.) That leaves 53.3% for the major labels.
The U.S. is considerably more concentrated. Independent labels and distributors had a 35.7% share of the U.S. market in 2023, according to Billboard’s analysis of Luminate data — 11 percentage points less than their global share — with the major labels owning the remaining 64.3%. That means that while independent artists and labels were behind the majority of the well over 100,000 new tracks that were being uploaded to digital service providers daily as of early 2023, they only accounted for a bit more than a third of revenue.
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The U.S. market gets even more concentrated when distribution, not just ownership, is measured. In the U.S., the major labels have an 84.3% distribution share through their ownership of music distributors Ingrooves (Universal Music Group), The Orchard (Sony Music), AWAL (Sony Music) and ADA (Warner Music Group), leaving independent labels and distributors with a 15.7% share. But MIDiA puts the independents’ global distribution share at 34.2% — 18.5 percentage points higher than their U.S. share.
Besides the availability of market share, companies are also investing outside of more familiar, Western countries because they’re chasing high growth rates. The U.S. is slowing and has settled into solid, high-single-digit annual improvements: 7.2% in 2023 and 5% in 2022 after a pandemic-related 41% surge in 2021, according to the IFPI’s data on global trade revenue.
Emerging music markets, on the other hand, are growing like weeds. Strong gains in some heavily populated countries led the U.S.’s share of global revenues to dip from 41.2% in 2021 to 38.6% in 2023. Over that time span, China’s share grew from 3.8% to 5.1% and Brazil’s share rose from 1.8% from 2.0%. In 2023 alone, Mexico grew 18% to $490 million, and India grew 15% to $357 million to overtake Spain as the world’s No. 14 market.
For majors and indies alike, the never-ending pursuit of market share is taking them across the globe. This year, Universal Music Group bought a majority stake in Nigerian record label Mavin Global and Outdustry, a record label and artist services provider that focuses on China, India and other emerging markets. Warner Music Group took a majority stake in Indian digital media and music company Divo. Believe acquired Turkish record label DMC and purchased Indian record label White Hill Music’s catalog and YouTube channel. In 2022, Sony Music acquired Brazilian independent music company Som Livre. A year earlier, Warner Music Group invested in Saudi Arabian independent label Rotana, building a presence in the Middle East-North Africa region where Reservoir Media has a partnership with Abu Dhabi-based PopArabia.
Streaming and social media have allowed independents to blossom around the world, creating a market “more diverse, fragmented, international, and regional than it has ever been,” wrote MIDiA’s Mark Mulligan. “It has resulted in a market that is characterized by both fragmentation and consolidation,” wrote Mulligan. “These opposing forces are shaping today’s market and will do so in the coming years.”
The music business is getting back to basics.
In a few short years, the major labels have gone from investing in and partnering with speculative tech startups to pouring money into regionally focused music companies across Asia, Africa and Latin America. After a brief flirtation with NFTs and live-streaming businesses, anything resembling a faddish technology seems to be out of favor, judging from the deals and partnerships they’ve been making lately. Instead, the majors are targeting old-school music companies that own catalogs and develop artists — and can benefit from the majors’ global network of distribution and other services.
In 2024 alone, the three majors — Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment and Warner Music Group — have acquired or invested in 11 record labels, music catalogs and service providers in small or developing markets. The flurry of deals — there were even more in 2023 and preceding years — provides the majors with more content for their ever-increasing distribution pipeline and more international artists to take to Western markets.
Take UMG’s run of acquisitions and investments in 2024: the remaining stake of European indie label group [PIAS], the remaining stake in the catalog of Thai music company RS Group, a majority stake in Nigerian record label Mavin Global and the outright acquisition of Outdustry, a multi-faceted company with an artist- and label-services arm that focuses on China, India and other high-growth emerging markets. Outdustry will be a division of Virgin Music Group, UMG’s fast-growing distribution and artist services company that includes distributor Ingrooves Music Group and Integral, formerly the artist services division of [PIAS].
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UMG, in particular, is letting the world know about its intentions. On Thursday (Oct. 31), UMG CEO Lucian Grainge dedicated much of his earnings call opening statements to the company’s efforts to expand into potentially lucrative markets that merited little attention before legal streaming services replaced digital piracy. UMG plans to make “several other investments” before the end of the year, CFO Boyd Muir said during the earnings call. In total, he said, investment spending in the second half of the year will be 350 million to 400 million euros ($380 million to $434 million).
The focus on emerging markets and artist services is a noticeable change from a few years ago. When NFT prices soared and fans were stuck at home during the pandemic, the majors invested in blockchain, virtual reality and live-streaming startups. Today, as the majors face slowing streaming growth in mature markets and the needs of an increasing number of independent artists, they’re focused on building a global network of service providers with an eye on up-and-coming markets.
The focus on emerging markets goes beyond acquisitions. In September, UMG launched a new company, Universal Music Group Greater Bay Area, that will be based in Shenzhen, making “the first time a major music company has established a division in China’s Greater Bay Area, the world’s most populous urban area,” the company said.
Another development mentioned on UMG’s earnings call was GTS, a global talent services business in Latin America. In October, GTS became a standalone company separate from UMG’s record labels. “By separating from our local labels,” Grainge explained, “GTS will now be able to also offer its services to artists outside of the UMG family.”
Grainge and Muir painted a picture of a global business determined to expand outside of the mature markets they know best and build a presence in high-growth ones. UMG’s competitors — including independent Believe — are doing the same.
WMG has also had a busy year investing in traditional music companies. In March, WMG purchased a stake in India’s Global Music Junction (India’s The Economic Times reported it was a 26% stake) and launched Warner Music South Asia in April. Last year, the company took a majority stake in Divo, an Indian digital media and music company. Earlier this week, CEO Robert Kyncl told The Economic Times that China and India are the company’s top markets for expansion. “We’re already doing great in India, but it can be a much bigger part of our story,” Kyncl told the paper.
The majors continue to buy catalogs, of course. This year, Sony Music purchased Pink Floyd’s recorded music catalog (in addition to merchandising and name and likeness rights) and UMG bought a minority stake in Chord Music Partners, which holds the rights to over 60,000 songs. Expensive song catalogs give the majors rights to assets with long, productive lives. But given the enormous size of these companies, artist catalog acquisitions barely move the revenue needle. A legendary artist’s catalog might cost $200 million but generate a steady $10 million a year — a healthy sum but a pittance to a company with annual sales exceeding $12 billion.
Rather than pour money into just catalogs, the majors are buying entire companies and building new businesses with growth potential. As Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in an investor note about UMG on Thursday (Oct. 31), earlier acquisitions have had “a negligible effect on revenue and a small impact on profit growth.” But in the future, they are likely to be a more important driver of revenue growth, and Morgan Stanley expects UMG’s financial reports will break out their impact (e.g. reported revenue vs. organic revenue).
In buying regional music companies and building artist-services business, the majors are also taking a defensive measure. Independents such as Believe have been investing in local markets for years. In 2024 alone, Believe purchased the remaining stake in Turkish record label DMC and acquired Indian label White Hill Music’s music catalog and YouTube channel. Independent distributors such as UnitedMasters, Stem, Symphonic Distribution and Create Music Group have given artists a viable alternative to major label-owned systems. The majors are simply changing along with the market.
In 2012, UMG acquired the recorded music assets of EMI Music and later sold some pieces to WMG to satisfy antitrust regulators. Opposition to greater consolidation in the U.S. and Europe means it was probably the last acquisition of its size in those regions. (WMG’s brief flirtation with buying Believe in April and May quickly drew opposition from French indie labels.) There’s less opposition to more gradual growth taking place elsewhere in the world, though. The majors are continuing to expand, but they’re taking many small steps, not single EMI-sized leaps — and they’re doing it through old-fashioned music businesses.
The old saying that any publicity is good publicity isn’t always true in the music business. And this year, Sean “Diddy” Combs is proving that listeners and corporations alike have limits.
Near the end of 2023, Combs was enjoying the momentum of the September release of The Love Album: Off the Grid, which spent seven weeks on the Billboard 200 albums chart and peaked at No. 19 on the Sept. 30 chart week. Meanwhile, album single “Another One of Me” by Diddy, French Montana & The Weeknd featuring 21 Savage peaked at No. 87 on the Billboard Hot 100.
However, those numbers would start dropping quickly. In November, the Bad Boy Records founder was the subject of three separate lawsuits by an ex-girlfriend, Cassie, and two other people with various allegations of sexual and physical assault. While his weekly streams and radio plays — composed of various solo recordings under names including Diddy, Puff Daddy and P. Diddy — could be expected to experience some decay as the weeks passed after the album’s launch, the controversies arguably accelerated Combs’ downturn with listeners.
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When Combs stepped down as chairman of digital media company Revolt a week later, his streams fell 22%, while his radio spins fell 36%. Two weeks after that — when brands severed ties with Combs’ e-commerce company, Empower Global, and Hulu scrapped plans for a reality show involving Combs — his radio plays fell another 55%.
That’s not to say that being in the news always hurts an artist’s streaming numbers. After Combs was arrested on Sept. 16 after being indicted for allegedly running a federal sex trafficking and racketeering conspiracy, U.S. on-demand streams of Combs’ music jumped 37% in the week ended Oct. 3. That Combs’ music benefitted from negative publicity isn’t a surprise — heavy media coverage, whether due to a death or a high-profile lawsuit, tends to influence what listeners seek out on streaming platforms. But the post-arrest bump was short-lived. Three weeks after Combs entered the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, his streaming numbers had fallen to pre-indictment levels.
Diddy
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Radio is a different story. While many listeners continued to stream Combs’ music, radio programmers, who risk losing advertisers by playing controversial artists, quickly abandoned Combs. In the first quarter of 2023, well before any public signs of impropriety, Combs’ music was getting played on U.S. radio anywhere from 800 to 1,000 times per week. But the March 25 FBI raids on Combs’ homes in Los Angeles and Miami coincided with a 27% drop in weekly radio spins. By the time a video of Combs assaulting Cassie in the hallway of a hotel surfaced at CNN in May, weekly spins of Combs’ songs were down to 352 — 94% below where they were when Cassie filed her lawsuit seven months earlier. By June, his weekly radio plays had dropped below 200.
Radio’s interest in Combs’ music reached a nadir soon after. The week after his arrest on Sept. 16, Combs’ weekly radio spins were down 25%, and radio programmers have largely refrained from playing his music ever since.
Combs’ experience at the hands of music streamers and radio stations echoes that of R&B singer R. Kelly a few years earlier. Long hounded by allegations of sexual abuse, Kelly managed to avoid accountability until the Washington Post ran a story titled “Star Treatment” that detailed how the music industry overlooked his deeds. In the wake of the article, Spotify and other streaming platforms decided in May 2018 to deemphasize Kelly’s tracks in algorithms and editorial playlists, and his average weekly U.S. on-demand streams dropped 10%. Radio programmers had an even bigger impact: Kelly’s weekly U.S. radio plays dropped 29% following the article’s publication.
Kelly’s arrest in February 2019 didn’t lead to an immediate drop in his streaming numbers; throughout 2019, his weekly on-demand streams consistently hovered around 15 million to 16 million. But radio programmers began abandoning him; by the time Kelly was arrested and charged by the state of Illinois in February, his weekly radio plays had already bottomed out at just over 100, down from about 2,000 a year earlier.
Over the next few years, streams of such songs as “I Believe I Can Fly” and “Ignition” would gradually and consistently decline. In 2020, Kelly’s tracks were doing roughly 9 million to 10 million streams per week. The next year, weekly streams fell to roughly 8 million, then 7 million.
Following a guilty verdict in September 2021, Kelly was given a 30-year prison sentence in June 2022. Like with Combs’ September 2024 arrest, media coverage of his sentence resulted in a small, single-digit gain in weekly streams, but the numbers showed a clear damage to his reputation. A week after the verdict, Kelly’s U.S. on-demand streams stood at 8.8 million per week — down 40% since the Washington Post article ran in 2018.
R. Kelly’s music seems to have reached a plateau, however, and interest in his catalog on streaming platforms has remained steady since his sentencing. Over two years later, Kelly’s weekly on-demand streams remain unchanged at roughly 9 million per week, though radio remains disinterested in playing his songs. This suggests that Diddy’s music could perform better online than at radio as his saga plays out.
Despite the music business nearing a decade of consistent annual growth, thousands of people have exited music companies in the last two years in the biggest wave of layoffs the industry has seen since the early 2000s. Spotify, Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group and BMG, to name just the biggest examples, have undergone organizational changes that restructured the companies and will collectively save them billions of dollars annually.
But the wave of layoffs of the ‘20s are vastly different than the cuts music companies made two decades earlier. The most obvious difference between then and now is the direction the industry was headed in the early ‘00s. From 1999, the year Napster introduced the world to peer-to-peer file-sharing, to 2003, the year Apple debuted the iTunes Music Store, U.S. recorded music revenues fell 18.5% from $14.6 billion to $11.9 billion, according to the RIAA. That’s a stark difference to the health of today’s business. In the last four years, the U.S. market has increased an astounding 54%.
The post-Napster years were “a matter of survival,” says Matt Pincus, co-founder/former CEO of music publisher SONGS, who at the time worked in EMI Music’s corporate development division. “That was a one-time elevator drop in the economics of the business caused by a technological innovation that fundamentally disrupted the way that people used our product.”
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The sudden arrival of both file-sharing applications and widespread internet access caused CD sales to plummet, creating a vicious cycle of layoffs, consolidation and more layoffs. Take EMI, which laid off 1,800 of its 8,000 staffers in 2002. Still reeling five years later, EMI was acquired by private equity firm Terra Firma in 2007. Terra Firma’s restructuring of EMI resulted in another 2,000 layoffs in 2008. As industry revenues continued to decline, Terra Firma was unable to keep up with its obligations to lenders. Citigroup ended up taking EMI and selling its parts to Universal Music Group and a Sony Corp.-led consortium, resulting in even more layoffs.
Continuously falling revenues created a need to cut expenses through consolidation. When labels acquired competitors or merged companies to help stop the financial bleeding, the elimination of redundant jobs created the desired cost savings. BMG laid off hundreds of staffers in 2003 when it acquired Zomba Music Group, for example, and another 50 people when it integrated J Records and RCA. The same year, UMG laid off 75 MCA employees as part of the label’s merger with Geffen Records.
Retail was being purged, too. In 2003 alone, at least 600 chain stores and 300 K-Mart stores — accounting for 5% of the prior year’s album sales — closed their doors, and Best Buy sold the 1,100-store Musicland chain to a leveraged buyout firm. Retail’s problems sent shockwaves through already struggling record labels. When Tower Records went out of business in 2006, Universal Music Group Distribution (UMGD) had to immediately lay off a dozen people, says Jim Urie, former president/CEO of UMGD.
It seemed like the job cuts would never end. When Universal Music Group cut 1,350 jobs — 11% of its workforce — in 2003, CEO Doug Morris was open to cutting more if necessary. “It depends on how fast the [digital] market gains traction and how fast the CD market continues to erode,” Morris told Billboard at the time. “If [one] doesn’t gain traction and the other erodes faster, we’ll keep trimming, because you have to run a company that way.”
Two decades later, the music industry is in a vastly better position. Many companies with solid revenue growth were still forced to reduce their staff, though, after over-hiring during the pandemic as digital platforms exploded in popularity. “People got drunk during COVID,” says one former major label executive. Digital businesses “started to have this burst,” he adds, “and we kind of caught a hangover across the business.”
Public companies — in music but also technology leaders such as Meta and Google — facing investor expectations opted to thin down. UMG, which went from an average of 8,800 full-time employees in 2020 to just under 10,000 in 2023, began laying off staff in March as part of a restructuring that will save an estimated $270 million annually. Likewise, Spotify ballooned from about 5,600 in 2020 to 8,360 in 2022 before laying off about 25% of its workforce in 2023.
Aside from the need to reduce bloat, recent layoffs reflect the normal course of business that sees companies constantly expanding, shrinking and re-tooling, says Pincus. “The music business goes through consolidation cycles where it becomes more fragmented, and then it consolidates, and then becomes more fragmented, and then it consolidates. We happen to be in a consolidation cycle at the moment. That’s the normal cyclical behavior of the industry. What was going on in the Napster time was not cyclical.”
Recent layoffs are also about positioning labels “to move forward,” says Urie, “and there are new skill sets involved.” Bob Morelli, former president of RED Distribution, agrees. “As technology has changed, [the business is more about] social media and targeted advertising,” he says. “And now with AI coming in, and it’s harder to get bigger tours, these companies are going to make staffing adjustments.” When Warner Music Group announced in 2023 it would cut 4% of its workforce, new CEO Robert Kyncl described the layoffs as necessary “in order to evolve” and position the company for “long-term success” by hiring for tech initiatives and “new skills for artist and songwriter development.”
Labels have also revamped how they discover new artists. The stereotypical A&R rep that scours clubs looking for the next big thing has been replaced — or at least augmented — by data experts. “Most of the A&R departments are more like a data analytics thing,” says David Macias, president of Thirty Tigers, an early adopter of the distribution and label services model. “They’re scrubbing data to find spikes that they can justify chasing.” The way labels and distributors pitch music to streaming services has also changed, Macias notes, from a people-focused process to one driven by automation. “How people find the music is going to have to do less and less with people with special relationships.”
The Atlantic Music Group restructuring may reside in a different category. “That seems like a house cleaning,” says Urie, “because they blew out a lot of people that are perfectly capable.” That’s a sign of a youth movement happening at the label, says another former executive, rather than a reaction to over-hiring or a natural business cycle. Elliot Grainge, the 30-year-old founder of the label 10K Projects, took the CEO role on Oct. 1. Longtime label leader Julie Greenwald announced her resignation five days after Grainge was named CEO. Atlantic ended up cutting roughly 150 jobs — many of them experienced executives with long tenures at the company.
Regardless of the era or business cycle, music executives — and the CFO making the strategic decisions — must answer the same questions, says Morelli. “What is my company going to look like? Are we going to go after developing artists? Are we going to go after legacy artists? Are we going to do a small amount? Are we going to win with volume? And how do you accommodate getting this message out to potential fans and consumers?”
The thousands of people laid off by music companies in recent years face better prospects than music professionals faced two decades ago. Back then, many executives and artists were still viable but needed the proper infrastructure around them, says Macias, who co-founded Thirty Tigers in 2002 after being laid off from Arista Nashville. Digital startups and the burgeoning digital distribution business gave some people a way to remain in music. But the post-Napster years were followed by another decade of industry contraction as downloads replaced CD sales.
If the majors aren’t hiring in 2024, the growing independent sector could provide a refuge for the recently unemployed. In recent years, investment in independent music companies has exploded as entrepreneurs in streaming, digital distribution and social media loosened the major labels’ grip on the industry. The current No. 1 song in America, Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” comes from an independent, EMPIRE.
“It’s going to be independent labels, like it always has been, that figure out the new way to get new records in the hands of an audience that doesn’t know they like it yet,” says Pincus.
News that Bytedance will shut down its 18-month old TikTok Music on-demand music streaming service might have come as a surprise to some people. After all, TikTok has over 1 billion monthly active users globally and singlehandedly redefined music discovery by turning generation of smartphone users onto music-based, short-form videos.
But TikTok Music’s demise was entirely predictable. Building a sustainable on-demand music streaming service is incredibly challenging. The digital music graveyard is littered with streaming products that didn’t last — remember Rdio, Boinc, Guvera, Turntable.fm or SpiralFrog? Not even a well-funded platform from a corporate giant is guaranteed of success. Sony’s Music Unlimited didn’t last. Nor did Microsoft’s Zune. Xiami, founded by Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, shut down in 2021 after 12 years.
Bytedance’s uphill road was made more difficult when it took on a different role with TikTok Music. TikTok was an insurgent that built itself without the typical constraints facing typical streaming services. The app created a new use case for music in the same way the download succeeded the CD and streaming succeeded the download. TikTok Music, on the other hand, was constrained by the licensing terms that govern on-demand services.
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As a result of those rules, Bytedance built something more like Spotify than TikTok because it didn’t have any other choice, says MIDiA Research’s Mark Mulligan. “TikTok Music had massive potential to be these so many things that didn’t look anything like any other [digital service provider],” he says. “But they still ended up having to make something that looked pretty much like any other streaming service.”
That TikTok Music resembled every other music streaming service was a problem, Mulligan argues, not a solution for a new market entrant. On-demand music has become a well-functioning utility like water service, he explains, but one that doesn’t build communities, drive fandom or create conversion — things TikTok does well and TikTok Music couldn’t. “We all really value the water that comes out of our taps, but we rarely go down to the local bar and talk to our friends about how great the water is that comes from taps,” says Mulligan.
These aren’t just any utility companies TikTok Music has been competing against. Market leader Spotify, with its $76 billion market capitalization, is far smaller than the next three companies, Apple, Google and Amazon. These four companies, and even smaller ones like them, have spent years pouring resources into building products and features that keep people listening to music, podcasts and, in the case of Spotify, audiobooks.
TikTok is great at creating engagement, too, but getting people to listen to full songs is different than feeding them a never-ending series of 15-second video clips, says Vickie Nauman, founder of CrossBorderWorks, a music tech and consulting and advisory firm. “You can’t necessarily translate that to something else.”
Things might be different if TikTok Music could differentiate itself on catalog by offering music not available on other music platforms. That’s how it works with on-demand video streaming. But global music services have, more or less, the same catalogs. Offering the world’s music has long been part of the music subscription service’s value proposition. So, music streaming services instead compete against one another on their user experiences.
On-demand services “had to make [the user experience] so elegant, so intuitive, and really, really customize it to consumers,” Nauman explains. In her experience, people underestimate the difficulty of creating a great product and executing the technology that underpins it. “It’s incredibly challenging,” she says. “Not only the user experience,” she continues, but the technology required to manage many tens of millions of tracks. “I think a lot of companies just really misperceive it.”
Changing consumer habits was always going to be a problem, too. It would be presumptuous to think anybody with a TikTok app would become a TikTok Music subscriber. Not every iPhone owner subscribes to Apple Music even though Apple offers a free trial to new iPhone owners and bundles the music service into a money-saving package, Apple One. Even though Alphabet owns both the Android operating system and YouTube, not every Android Phone owner subscribes to YouTube Music.
“To some extent, I’m not surprised” by TikTok Music’s failure, says MusicWatch principal Russ Crupnick. When MusicWatch surveyed American TikTok users about their interest in a standalone TikTok streaming service, the reaction was “surprisingly low” and “very lukewarm,” he says. (TikTok Music never launched in the U.S.) “Getting most people to switch [subscription services] at this point is a bit of a challenge. You’re more likely to get people to use multiple services.”
In the U.S., self-pay subscribers — not including free trials — have an overage of 2.3 music subscription services, according to MusicWatch. That includes Amazon Prime, which online shoppers buy mainly for free shipping, as well as satellite radio service SiriusXM. Asking people paying for multiple services to pay for one more music subscription plan is a tall order for a newcomer like TikTok Music. What’s more, MusicWatch found that Spotify ranks behind only Amazon Prime in terms of subscriber passion. When the economy gets rough, Spotify users are relatively unlikely to cancel their plans.
Zoom out and the demise of TikTok Music reveals something else about the music streaming market. In 2024, the number of global platforms may have reached a steady state and new entrants are unlikely to appear (and, like TikTok Music, any attempts will be unsuccessful). Experts who spoke with Billboard don’t foresee there being another company with both the funding and the stomach to take on the demands of licensing and administering rights for a huge amount of music.
“We’re at a fork in the road where all of these broad catalog licenses are kind of exhausted,” says Nauman. Gaming companies have the money but don’t need to license entire catalogs, she adds. Fitness companies that had licensed large catalogs now “want simpler solutions.”
If new entrants are going to find success, says Mulligan, it could be in “regional hubs” in which streaming services can license a smaller amount of local music and focus on markets where Western repertoire is less important. In China, for example, a market dominated by local music licensed by local rights owners, Tencent Music Entertainment has 117 million subscribers and Cloud Music had 44.1 million at the end of 2023 (the last figure the company made available). But regional services are being threatened by the bigger global companies. In some populous markets such as India and the Philippines, dominant Western companies have pushed aside local players.
In the end, Bytedance doesn’t need TikTok Music to be an influential force in music. Mulligan thinks it’s possible that the “majority” of music activity — not revenue — will happen on TikTok within three to five years. Younger people want to create, not just consume, he says, and TikTok could become a self-contained ecosystem that captures more of its users’ time — at the expense of the kind of on-demand streaming business that Bytedance is now abandoning.
Despite having to pay more for everyday goods and services, Americans feel like they’re in a better place financially than earlier this year. How they choose to increase and cut back their spending, though, varies from music to vacations to groceries.
The data show consumers are generally in a good place. The latest numbers from University of Michigan’s survey of consumers released today (Sept. 13) show consumer sentiment is the best since May and 40% above its June 2022 low. Deloitte’s financial well-being index rose for the third straight month in August and has risen from 95.9 to 102.6 over the last year, which suggests that consumers are feeling good enough about their finances to increase spending on a range of products and services.
Listen to travel and leisure companies and you’ll get the impression that inflation-weary, cash-strapped consumers are holding close to their wallets. In August, Airbnb missed earnings and warned of slowing demand, while Booking.com told investors that it expected slower growth in the number of nights booked by customers. Disney’s theme parks are seeing softer demand. Comcast’s Universal theme park revenue fell 11% in the most recent quarter after having a record 2023.
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The concert business, though, doesn’t share the malaise of theme parks and vacation rentals. “We don’t see [a slowdown],” Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino said Tuesday (Sept. 10) at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia & Technology Conference in San Francisco. “And you almost hate saying it, because everyone else is saying it, but we do think we have a very unique product.” Live Nation, the world’s largest concert promoter and ticketing company, had a record second quarter with total revenue of $6 billion, up 7%, and expects 2024 will be a record year.
Concerts have the advantage of creating a more visceral reaction than other types of entertainment. And because it’s in-person and live, Rapino explained, it’s a unique experience with a competitive advantage. “[Fans] want to connect with that artist,” he said. “There’s no digital duplicate replication here. You cannot watch that show at home. You do not get goosebumps when you watch it on Apple TV.”
Live music isn’t totally immune to economic woes, of course. Numerous tours — including The Black Keys and Jennifer Lopez — have been cancelled due to poor ticket sales. Festivals ranging from Desert Daze in California to Beale Street Music Festival in Memphis pulled the plug in 2024 due to economic reasons. And as Billboard has documented in recent years, the financial strain of touring artists following the pandemic has been very real. Higher costs for transportation, fuel and food have forced artists to economize and cut back on expenses to turn a profit.
Fans are still spending dearly on a small number of superstars, though. Surge pricing used in the Oasis on-sale inflated the cost of primary tickets beyond many fans’ comfort zones. Sphere in Las Vegas has drawn high-spending fans to residencies by U2, Phish and Dead & Co., and The Eagles’ upcoming shows should do similarly well. Prices to Adele’s final residency performance at The Colosseum at Caesar’s Palace in Las Vegas before an indefinite hiatus soared beyond $17,000 for top-tier seats.
Consumers continue to spend on recorded music, too. According to the RIAA’s mid-year report, the parts of the business that involve direct consumer spending — subscriptions, physical formats and digital downloads — rose 4.7% in the first six months of 2024. Subscription revenue improved 5.1% and surpassed 60% of total recorded music revenue. Spending on physical music formats fared even better, rising 12.7% on the strength of a 17.0% increase in vinyl sales. Download spending, an increasingly inconsequential part of the business, fell 15.8%.
Segments that don’t represent consumer spending — ad-supported streaming, synchronization royalties and SoundExchange royalties — rose just 0.9%. Ad-supported on-demand streaming, the biggest component of the non-spending segment, rose just 1.7%. (SoundExchange royalties include ad-supported streaming in addition to satellite radio royalties, which stem from direct consumer spending, and cable radio stations, which do not.) Synchronization royalties — it reflects the money flowing into advertisements and TV and film production — dropped 9.8%.
Elsewhere in the entertainment business, spending is mixed. U.S. movie ticket sales were down to $3.6 billion from $4 billion, though the pop culture sensation of Barbie and Oppenheimer in the summer of 2023 made for a tough comparison. U.S. video game revenue is expected to rise about 2.2% to $47 billion in 2024, according to market research firm Newzoo.
While consumer are looking to splurge on entertainment, they’re much more price conscious about everyday items. According to the consulting company McKinsey, people are cutting back on spending on essentials — especially gasoline and fresh produce — as well as home improvement and domestic flights.
During a 1980 presidential debate, Ronald Reagan posed a now-famous question: “Are you better off than you were four years ago?” In 2024, many Americans feel they were better off in 2020 — even though the economy was crippled by the pandemic that year. The music industry is better off today than four years ago. And although recorded music growth has slowed this year, 2024 will be better than 2023, too.
If investors and music companies want high streaming growth rates, they should look beyond the suddenly sluggish U.S. market.
Of the few countries that have released midyear recorded music industry figures, the U.S. has the lowest growth rate for streaming — by far. Japan, Brazil, Italy, Germany and Spain each easily bested the 3.8% growth rate mustered by the U.S. in the first half of 2024, though they are far smaller markets.
In Brazil, the ninth-largest market in 2023, streaming revenue improved 21.1% to 1.442 billion BRL ($284 million) in the first half of 2024, according to the country’s trade group, Pro-Música Brasil. Subscription revenue rocketed 28.4% to 995 million BRL ($196 million) while ad-supported streaming rose just 6.6% to 436 million BRL ($86 million).
Streaming accounts for 99% of total revenue in Brazil, a market that was early to adopt streaming platforms. (Pro-Música Brasil did not include synch and performance royalties in the midyear numbers. In 2023, those two segments accounted for 12% of Brazil’s total revenue.) The former internet radio service Rdio — acquired by Pandora in 2015 — launched in Brazil in 2011. Muve Music, acquired by Deezer in 2015, launched a partnership with leading mobile carrier TIM in 2013. Deezer still powers TIM’s music streaming platform and extended that partnership in January.
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Important markets in Asia and Europe also delivered impressive streaming gains in the first half of the year. Spain nearly matched Brazil with 19.1% streaming growth and a 16.6% improvement in total revenue. In Italy, recorded music revenue jumped 15.1% and streaming revenue, which accounts for 80% of the total market, grew 18.1%. (Figures in currency were not provided by Italy’s trade group, FIMI.) The world’s second- and fourth-largest markets, Japan and Germany, had streaming gains of 12.7% and 9.0%, respectively.
In aggregate, the five ex-U.S. markets grew 12.2% compared to the first half of 2023, with the smallest markets having the highest streaming growth rates. Brazil’s market is less than 3% the size of the U.S., while Spain and Italy are 3% and 4% the size of the world’s largest market, respectively. Germany’s market is 15% as big as the U.S. Japan is just a quarter of its size.
What the U.S. lacks in momentum it makes up for in size. Based on total market revenue for 2023, the U.S. was more than twice the size of the five ex-U.S. markets combined — $11.04 billion to $5.47 billion, according to IFPI figures. In fact, the U.S. is so large that a 3.8% streaming gain was worth $404 million — more than the entire Spanish recorded music market ($355 million) and nearly as big as Italy’s ($477 million). To reiterate, that’s not just streaming — we’re talking about those countries’ entire market revenue.
The rate of streaming growth underpins much of the money flowing into the music business. Investors and companies are betting the global market can generate nearly double-digit growth through the end of the decade. The latest Goldman Sachs “Music in the Air” report, a standard reference point for gauging the potential of music as an investment, forecasts that global streaming revenue will grow at a 10% compound annual growth rate through 2030. That would turn last year’s $19.3 billion streaming market into $37.8 billion by the end of the decade.
But the enormity of the U.S. market, which accounted for 42% of global streaming revenue in 2023, according to the IFPI, means other markets will need to continue those rapid paces for the global market to maintain that 10% streaming growth rate. The five ex-U.S. markets’ 12.2% growth rate is nearly halved to 6.4% when their $5.47 billion total value is combined with the U.S. market, which is worth $11.04 billion.
Developing markets certainly have the potential to contribute to global growth, but many of the most populous countries — India, Indonesia, the Philippines — are relatively small and based more on advertising than high-value subscriptions. For the math to work, the global market needs a strong U.S.
Anyone who has bought a vinyl record or a CD in recent years knows full well that physical music products aren’t exempt from the inflation that has plagued U.S. consumers.
In fact, the price of a vinyl record in the U.S. rose 25.5% from 2017 to 2023, according to Billboard’s analysis of RIAA data — slightly more than the 24.3% increase in the consumer price index over the same time. CD prices fared a bit better, increasing just 20.4%.
However, while music subscription prices are rising, consumers can probably expect physical music prices to remain somewhat level going forward: Insiders who spoke with Billboard say vinyl prices are remaining steady in 2024 after the COVID-19 pandemic created supply chain problems and raised the costs of everything from raw materials to labor.
As one music distribution executive put it, those supply chain problems are “flattening out.” As a result, turnaround times have improved drastically as manufacturers worked through their pandemic-era order backlogs. “I feel like the prices will flatten, too,” says the executive.
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“Our manufacturing prices have been stable for quite a while,” says Bill Hein, CEO of Pressing Business. Freight costs can be improved if a buyer books with flexible dates, Hein says, and reliable sea freight is being used for more of its U.S. deliveries. “Generally speaking, both air and sea freight are more predictable now than they were during the lockdown era, and prices are generally better.”
Outside of the music business, rising prices on everyday necessities have been a fact of life. Tired of the inflation that has eaten into their paychecks, Americans are pushing back against the high cost of staples, and companies are responding with attempts to reduce prices.
In July, PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta suggested consumers had grown tired of more than two years of rising prices. “Some parts of the [Frito-Lay] portfolio need value adjustment,” he said during a July 11 earnings call. Overall sales volume was down 4% in its most recent quarter, and North American beverage sales for the company dipped 3%. PepsiCo will respond, Laguarta said, by offering better deals and increasing advertising. For some consumers, Laguarta added, “we need some new entry price points.”
Companies across the economy are sharing PepsiCo’s experience with price-fatigued shoppers. Walmart is offering more short-term discounts. Target lowered prices. Fast food giants McDonald’s, Wendy’s and Taco Bell are courting customers through low-cost bundles and value-oriented menus. And because it’s an election year, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee for president, has floated a federal ban on price gouging in the grocery and food industries.
Since vinyl prices are based heavily on manufacturing costs, there’s little to prevent prices from creeping up without sellers losing profits. Vinyl retailers set prices based on wholesale costs and their need to cover overhead and other expenses. Artists on record labels must pay the wholesale price for their physical goods and don’t have control over pressing and printing costs, says Paul Steele, executive partner at Triple 8 Management. “Physical prices for our roster of nearly 30 artists have mostly stayed the same for a decade, with small inflationary increases here or there,” he says.
But aside from run-of-the-mill inflation, there are other factors that could push the average sale price higher. Physical music is increasingly a luxury good — a high-priced collectible item with packaging to match. Artists frequently release multiple variants of LPs with colored vinyl. And albums released today commonly have the expensive gatefold packaging that was common in the ‘70s.
The way music is released in the streaming era also drives up prices. Artists take advantage of the unlimited shelf space on streaming platforms by stuffing albums with more songs at no extra cost. As Billboard noted last year, the top 10 albums’ average number of songs rose from 13.2 in 2014 to 19.1 in 2022. A double album on a vinyl record is more expensive, and as one executive notes, putting more songs on an album will often — but not always — require paying more mechanical royalties to songwriters and publishers.
Indeed, some of the most popular vinyl records of the moment are double- or triple-LPs. Post Malone’s 18-track, two-LP album F-1 Trillion sells for $45.89 at Amazon and more at other retailers. Zach Bryan’s 34-track American Heartbreak has three LPs and a $44.98 list price. And that’s not to mention the more extravagant reissues, such as a 2-LP/2-CD/1-Blu-ray package for Van Halen’s For Unlawful Carnal Knowledge that carries a $99.98 list price.
Despite the increase in vinyl prices over the last several years, sales have yet to abate. Will that continue? The answer to that question will likely lie with younger consumers who have less disposable income. Michael Kurtz, co-founder of Record Store Day, says vinyl being a premium, collectible product is toughest on younger consumers. While Record Store Day succeeded in helping turn a new generation on to vinyl records, younger people don’t have as much money and are cutting back on their purchases. “A young customer 18 months ago would come to the counter with two or three records,” says Kurtz. “Now they come to the counter with one or maybe two.”
Catalog titles are often the more affordable option and help offset frontline price creep. Michael Jackson’s Thriller can be had for under $25. Fleetwood Mac’s perennial top-seller Rumours is offered in both affordable and more deluxe versions. Rhino Records’ Now Playing series of compilations for artists ranging from The Stooges to Gram Parsons to John Prine are priced at $19.99.
The good news — for all consumers — is that price growth is reverting to historical norms. The average monthly U.S. inflation rate reached 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022 and 4.1% in 2023. This year, the average monthly increase in the consumer price index (CPI) is just 3.2% through July. If vinyl prices seem like they’re continuing to creep upward, the packaging and the increasing prevalence of the double album are likely to blame.
The shine on the music industry, a darling of Wall Street in recent years, appears to have lost a bit of its luster.
Record label and publisher stocks that boomed in 2023 are mostly down in 2024. Universal Music Group (UMG), riding high until two weeks ago, is down 14.0% through Thursday (Aug. 15). Warner Music Group (WMG) is off 21.0%. Reservoir Media is up 2%, although it has declined 15.0% since July 26. K-pop companies have fallen off a cliff.
Not that business is bad — far from it. But as companies released earnings results over the last couple weeks, good results have occasionally been overshadowed by a financial metric — namely, subscription growth — that either missed expectations or is headed in the wrong direction. In some cases, the results were simply disappointing.
Ever since UMG produced weaker-than-expected subscription growth in the second quarter, analysts and investors have been revisiting their forecasts, wondering if they set their expectations too high and trying to figure out if UMG’s results reflect the broader market. The company’s recorded music subscription revenue rose 6.5% in the quarter, about half of analysts’ expectations.
Although UMG executives warned against reading too much into the results from any one quarter, investors did exactly that. UMG’s share price, which had been among the better performers in its label-publisher peer group in 2024, dropped 24% in a single day despite UMG posting a 10% increase in revenue and better margins than a year earlier.
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Subscription growth isn’t the only facet of the modern music business, but it’s probably the main reason most investors bought into music companies. As Billboard wrote in March, the music business is increasingly reliant — perhaps too much so — on subscription revenue. In the U.S. in 2023, subscription revenue accounted for 59.3% of recorded music revenue, up from 57.8% in 2022 and far above 47.3% in 2018, according to the RIAA. With ad-supported streaming stagnant, subscriptions take on even greater importance.
Subscription revenue was on everybody’s mind when WMG released earnings a week later. The company’s streaming revenue didn’t show signs of UMG’s slippage, though, which suggested the reaction to UMG’s quarter may have been overblown. WMG’s recorded music subscription revenue was up 7% while ad-supported streaming revenue was unchanged. The streaming market, said CEO Robert Kyncl during the Aug. 7 earnings call, is “diverse,” “healthy’ and has more room for subscriber growth. While analysts’ opinions varied, investors seemed happy enough, as WMG’s share price gained 2% that day.
Sony Music had similarly positive streaming results in its latest fiscal quarter. Total recorded music streaming revenue improved 6%, suggesting subscription revenue exceeded 6% to compensate for a small decline in ad-supported streaming.
Often overshadowed by UMG and WMG, Reservoir Media has delivered consistent growth since going public in 2021. The company’s latest earnings results delivered more of the same: Revenue was up 8% and operating income before depreciation and amortization jumped 27%. While there was a decline in recorded music revenue, it couldn’t be attributed to a stubborn streaming market. Rather, Reservoir was riding high a year earlier from the reissue of De La Soul’s catalog, which it picked up in the 2021 acquisition of Tommy Boy Music. Even so, its share price is down 11.9% since its quarterly earnings release while the S&P 500 is up 2% over the same period.
K-pop is a different story altogether. While these South Korean companies are riding the genre’s success to aggressively expand globally through partnerships, joint ventures and acquisitions, they’re showing signs of growing pains. Year-to-date through Aug. 15, the four main K-pop companies’ share prices had dropped an average of 35.5%.
Second-quarter results explain part of the decline. Three of those K-pop companies had an average decline in net income of 84%, while the fourth saw its net profit turn into a net loss. At JYP Entertainment, home to Stray Kids and iTZY, revenue dropped 37% and net profit plummeted 95%. SM Entertainment managed a 6% increase in consolidated revenue — the main SM Entertainment segment fared far better than its subsidiaries — but net profit still dropped by 70%. HYBE’s revenue increased 6% and set a quarterly record, but its net profit slipped 86%.
The South Korean companies’ relatively small rosters and lack of diversity help explain a quarter-to-quarter shortfall. JYP Entertainment, for example, was missing its most popular artists from its second-quarter album release schedule — a problem for a K-pop label dependent on fans’ tendency to buy CDs. (albums accounted for 49% of total revenue a year earlier). With an 82% drop last quarter, albums’ share of revenue fell to just 14%.
There’s plenty of opportunity for companies to regain their luster. UMG CFO Boyd Muir insisted the company will consistently deliver high single-digit revenue growth. WMG’s Kyncl insisted that “streaming dynamics remain healthy” and the company sees “plenty of headroom for subscriber growth” globally. K-pop labels won’t go two successive quarters without priority releases to pad sales figures. Any single quarter may have a hiccup, but the long-term trend lines are still pointing in the right direction.