State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 20), new albums from big names in the worlds of pop, hip-hop and country look to impact the Billboard 200’s top tier — along with a reissued dance chart-topper from a decade ago.
Jonas Brothers, The Album (Republic): The brothers band already had one of the century’s most successful comebacks after a decade-long hiatus in 2019, topping both the Billboard 200 and the Billboard Hot 100 with their Happiness Begins album and its single “Sucker.” Now the trio looks to do it again with The Album — a set heavily influenced by ‘70s and ‘80s top 40, as well as by their lives as family men.
The Album lacks a lead single as popular as “Sucker,” but the addictive “Waffle House” has started to scale the Hot 100, climbing to No. 82 this week. The group has also been extremely visible in its promotional lead-up to the album, performing two songs from it on Saturday Night Live in April, and kicking off its Five Albums, One Night Tour at Yankee Stadium, playing all of not only The Album, but also their other four albums before it.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Richest Opp (Never Broke Again/Motown): Surprise: Three weeks after his second full-length of 2023, April’s Don’t Try This at Home, YoungBoy is back with the new mixtape Richest Opp. At just 17 tracks, it’s about half the running time of Home, and with none of its big-name features. But it does come with some drama: Opp, announced just days before its release, was set to drop the same day as a (later delayed) new album from fellow star rapper Lil Durk, who YoungBoy has been taking shots at over social media, and who is one of the rappers YoungBoy calls out in the new set’s antagonistic “F–k the Industry Pt. 2.”
Bailey Zimmerman, Religiously. The Album (Warner Nashville/Elektra): As Morgan Wallen continues his still-uninterrupted reign atop the Billboard 200 — now at 10 weeks and counting for his One Thing at a Time — he faces a challenge from a breakout artist whose sound and ascent both mirror his own. Bailey Zimmerman has become one of the most consistently viral artists in country music — with radio success now to match, now that Hot 100 top 10 hit “Rock and a Hard Place” also topped the Country Airplay chart for six weeks — thanks to a delivery that similarly mixes power and vulnerability and lyrics that feel both personal and clever.
Whether the student can depose the master depends on if the rest of his debut album Religiously. The Album streams as well as its advance singles, “Rock” and fellow Hot 100 hits “Fall in Love” and “Fix’n to Break,” all of which are included among the set’s 16 tracks. Zimmerman will also get a boost from several sales variants, including a signed CD (available via his web store), as well as digital and cassette releases.
In the Mix
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories (Columbia): Though the duo of Thomas Bangalter and Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo officially went their separate ways two years ago, the robots are back this week with a 10th anniversary edition of their Billboard 200-topping, album of the year Grammy-winning 2013 album Random Access Memories. The set features a new disk of bonus cuts — including demos, alternate versions and even sequels to some of the original’s tracks – and can be purchased digitally, or as a triple-LP vinyl or double-disc CD set.
Lauren Daigle, Lauren Daigle (Centricity/Atlantic): It’s been five years since CCM breakthrough artist Lauren Daigle crashed the charts with her No. 3-peaking Look Up Child LP and its surprise No. 29 Hot 100 hit “You Say,” but the powerhouse artist often referred to as “the Christian Adele” is now back with her self-titled third album. Lauren Daigle has yet to spawn a crossover hit like “You Say,” but lead single “Thank God I Do” topped Billboard’s Hot Christian Songs listing, and is available for sale in three CD versions and a whopping six vinyl variants, as well as digitally.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 20), one of the biggest pop stars of the past decade takes his turn attempting to depose Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 200 incumbent before its potential 10th week on top.
Ed Sheeran, – (Subtract) (Asylum/Atlantic): For the fifth and presumably final entry in Ed Sheeran’s mathematical symbols series, Sheeran linked up with writer-producer Aaron Dessner for a personal, stripped-down 14-track set. Subtract lacks the kind of obvious pop singles that bolstered prior albums No.6 Collaborations Project (2019) and = (Equals) (2021), though Midas-touched top 40 maestros Max Martin and Shellback are here (along with dance sensation Fred again..) as co-producers on lead single “Eyes Closed.”
“Closed” has not yet achieved the kind of Billboard Hot 100 success of previous No. 2-peaking advance singles “I Don’t Care” (with Justin Bieber) and “Bad Habits” — debuting at just No. 26 and sliding down from there. But there is an obvious precedent for this kind of album finding major success even without a big pop hit, courtesy of Sheeran’s old pal Taylor Swift, whose 2020 album Folklore boasted similarly stark songwriting and stripped-down arrangements (also largely produced and co-authored by Aaron Dessner) and still posted blockbuster first-week numbers. And while Sheeran’s latest single might not have impacted pop culture much yet, his name has certainly been all over headlines lately — thanks to the closely watched copyright trial over his alleged infringement of Marvin Gaye’s “Let’s Get It On,” on his “Thinking Out Loud,” for which he was found not liable last week.
Since Sheeran’s streaming numbers are not what they used to be, he’ll need to depend significantly on sales to pass Morgan Wallen’s nine-week No. 1 One Thing at a Time. To that end, – (Subtract) is available in both a standard 14 track edition and a deluxe 18 track edition on DSPs and for digital download, as well as on CD or vinyl. He also has vinyl variants of the standard edition for purchase, including exclusives for Amazon, Barnes & Noble, independent record stores, Target, Urban Outfitters and Walmart. He also has multiple CD editions available in various collectible packages (including a signed CD, an iteration with a lenticular cover, a “textured sand” cover and a “Zine” CD package), and a deluxe boxed set containing a shirt and a signed CD.
Will it all be enough? One Thing’s numbers have continued to slip, now down to 138,000 equivalent album units in its ninth week at No. 1. However, that number is still comfortably higher than the first-week numbers (118,000 units) posted by Sheeran’s Equals album – which had a big pop smash – so he will need fans to really connect with this highly personal album to earn his fifth No. 1 in a row.
IN THE MIX
Le Sserafim, Unforgiven (Source/YG Plus/Geffen): Korean girl group Le Sserafim made its first splash on the Billboard 200 in October 2022 with its No. 14-peaking Antifragile EP – several tracks of which also appear on its first studio album, Unforgiven. The set boasts 11 collectible CD editions — including exclusives for Target, Walmart and Weverse and comes with a standard set of bonus materials , plus randomized photocards – as well as a guest appearance from a chart-topper of yore: the legendary Nile Rodgers of Chic, on the title track.
Destroy Lonely, If Looks Could Kill (Opium/Interscope/Ingrooves): One of the few real success stories in hip-hop the past year has been the breakthrough of Atlanta rapper Destroy Lonely, whose guitar-heavy “If Looks Could Kill” became a viral sensation in March after taking off on TikTok. The artist’s debut album is named after that hit single, and features 26 guest-free tracks of woozy, grungy trap — which should make the set one of the week’s biggest new streaming successes.
Various Artists, Guardians of the Galaxy, Vol. 3: Awesome Mix Vol. 3 (Hollywood/Marvel Music): The third entry in the popular series of soundtracks the blockbuster Guardians of the Galaxy films sees its faux-mixtape format embracing Generation X-era hits from Radiohead, the Beastie Boys and The Replacements – while also keeping a little of its ‘70s core with classics from Heart, Rainbow and Bruce Springsteen. Currently unavailable on streaming, the set is expected to sell well – and can be purchased in a wide-release standard CD, a Walmart-exclusive CD with a poster packaged inside, a Target-exclusive CD variant with collectible “Guardians” branded trading cards, as well as in vinyl exclusives on Disney Music Emporium’s website, and at Target and Walmart.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Big Machine): You know how this works by now: Taylor Swift announces a new Taylor’s Version re-recording of one of her early albums, and fans stream the originals in anticipation. Speak Now had already enjoyed the chart bump that all of Swift’s studio albums received following the launch of her breathlessly anticipated Eras Tour – climbing to No. 58 on the most recent Billboard 200. Now, after Swift’s revelation that she plans to revisit her third album next, it’s poised for another big leap on the chart.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 12), after sets from a pair of BTS alums fall just short of matching the totals of Morgan Wallen’s Billboard 200 juggernaut, a 13-strong K-pop group looks to take their crack at it.
SEVENTEEN, 10th Mini Album ‘FML’ (Pledis/YG Plus): It’s a showdown we’ve seen time and time again on the Billboard 200 in recent years: a lengthy album from an artist who dominates streaming vs. a much shorter set from an artist who sells an exceptional amount of physical copies. Many of the albums from the latter category are from K-pop, and we have another entrant this week in the form of the 13-member boy band SEVENTEEN’s latest mini-album, FML.
The group has climbed closer to the Billboard 200’s apex with each successive release, including a pair of top 10 efforts last year with 4th Album: Face the Sun (No. 7 in June) and that set’s extended repackaged reissue, Sector 17 (No. 4 in August). Helping their sales numbers this time will be an array of different CDs — 14 total, including different exclusives for the act’s official webstore, Barnes & Noble, Target and the Weverse store; all with a standard set of items packaged inside and additional randomized items like postcards, mini posters, bookmarks and stickers. There are also 17 different alternative digital albums on their webstore, each with a different cover. Four of them have two bonus tracks – one instrumental version, one voice member from certain group members – that are different on each album. The remaining 13 alternative digital albums all have the standard tracklist, just with a different cover (one for each of the group members).
The bar for SEVENTEEN to hit No. 1 might be slightly lower than it was for BTS alums Jimin and Suga last month, as Morgan Wallen’s mighty One Thing at a Time slips below 150,000 equivalent album units for the first time in its eight weeks at No. 1 with its 149,000 May 6 chart (reflecting the tracking week ending April 27). If they can accomplish the feat, SEVENTEEN would become the second Korean pop group to top the Billboard 200 in 2023, following TOMORROW X TOGETHER, which did so in February with The Name Chapter: Temptation in February.
Jack Harlow, Jackman. (Generation Now/Atlantic): Louisville rapper Jack Harlow made the leap to pop stardom last year with his Billboard Hot 100-topping, Fergie-sampling crossover smash “First Class,” which was followed by the album Come Home the Kids Miss You. Though the star-studded affair – featuring appearances from A-listers Drake, Lil Wayne, Pharrell and Justin Timberlake – peaked at No. 3 on the Billboard 200, it was poorly received critically and failed to produce a second hit on the level of “First Class.”
Harlow went in a different direction for last week’s semi-surprise-released Jackman., announced just days earlier and titled after his full first name. The set includes just 10 tracks, with no guests or any big pop samples or interpolations that littered his prior album. The currently digital-only set – Harlow’s webstore also has a pre-sale of limited-edition green vinyl version available for August – may not quite do the kind of robust streaming numbers as its predecessor with no big features or previously released hits, but it is drawing much better reviews.
IN THE MIX
The National, First Two Pages of Frankenstein (4AD): Cincinnati-via-Brooklyn indie rock vets The National are regular visitors to the Billboard 200’s top 5, having reached there with four consecutive albums dating back to 2010’s High Violet, most recently with 2019’s No. 5-peaking I Am Easy to FInd. A not-so-secret weapon on the new First Two Pages of Frankenstein could help make it five straight: Taylor Swift, now a regular collaborator of band co-founder Aaron Dessner, who features on the album’s “The Alcott.”
Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Volume 46 (Rhino): Another season, another transmission from the live archives of rock’s most storied jam band. This three-disc set – available in a limited edition of 25,000 copies, as usual for Dave’s Picks – is taken from the Grateful Dead‘s 1972 gig at the Hollywood Palladium, with some copies also including a bonus fourth discs of songs from ‘72 shows in Roosevelt Stadium in New Jersey and Folson Field in Colorado.
Illenium, Illenium (Warner): The star EDM DJ-producer is better known for his impressive live show – which he’s taking to arenas and stadiums this summer – but Illenium has also had three Billboard 200-charting albums, with the most recent (2021’s Fallen Embers) peaking at No. 49. His new self-titled album is more rock-influenced, and the chart returns so far have been positive, with all seven of its pre-release advance tracks reaching the top 20 of Billboard’s Hot Dance/Electronic Songs chart.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 5), it’s the sales of Agust D’s debut LP vs. the streams for Morgan Wallen’s 36-track juggernaut in a race for the Billboard 200 crown.
Agust D, D Day (Big Hit): Just a few weeks ago, the top debut on the Billboard 200 came from a BTS alum: Jimin, who debuted atop the Billboard Hot 100 with his single “Like Crazy” and came one spot from doing the same on the Billboard 200 with the album FACE. This week, the biggest new release may again come from the K-pop superstars’ ranks, as Suga releases his much-anticipated first LP, D-Day, under his Agust D alias.
The album is expected to sell well – helped by a variety of physical releases, which like FACE, came out the same day as the album’s digital release. (Recent album releases from BTS groupmates RM and J-Hope initially arrived as digital-only.) D-Day is available as multiple different collectible CDs (including exclusive editions for Target, Walmart and the Weverse store) — once again with both standard elements (including a sticker, postcard and poster) and randomized photo cards — plus four digital albums (one standard, plus three alternative cover editions sold in Agust D’s official webstore).
The 10-track album will have to sell very well to compete with the continued streaming dominance of Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – which posted 166,000 equivalent album units in its seventh week at No. 1, boosted by sales of a new vinyl edition of the 36-track album. But if D-Day can get in range of FACE’s first-week numbers (164,000 units), it could be Wallen’s Time to vacate the top spot.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Don’t Try This at Home (Never Broke Again/Motown/UMG): He’s back. Three months after his first album of 2022, January’s I Rest My Case, YoungBoy returns with his second full-length release for Motown, Don’t Try This at Home. There’s no physical release yet for the 33-track set, but the tracklist is his longest yet, and features big-name features from Nicki Minaj, Post Malone, The Kid LAROI and Mariah the Scientist — which may help the new album pass the somewhat underwhelming No. 9 Billboard 200 peak for I Rest My Case earlier this year.
Taylor Swift, Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions (Republic): Taylor Swift already has two albums in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 this week with 2022’s Midnights and 2019’s Lover, and she may add another next week with the Record Store Day-only Folklore: The Long Pond Studio Sessions. The vinyl RSD release of the 17-track set — consisting of acoustic live performances of the tracks from Swift’s Grammy-winning Folklore album, previously featured in Swift’s Disney+ special of the same name and available to purchase digitally as part of the Folklore deluxe edition — is limited to 75,000 copies, but that alone would likely be enough to secure a debut in the top 10 if it to sells out, as anything Swift-related seems to do in 2023. (Other titles by the big-name likes of Pearl Jam, Elton John and The 1975 may also factor on the chart next week.)
In the Mix
Mac DeMarco, One Wayne G (Mac’s Record Label): There aren’t many albums on the Billboard 200 you could fall asleep listening to and still be hearing when you wake up the next morning – but Mac DeMarco’s nine-and-a-half hour (!!) new collection is certainly one. The epic set, mostly consisting of instrumentals and demos, is unsurprisingly unavailable for physical release and is probably unlikely to produce a breakout hit. But with 199 tracks, its streaming numbers should still be enough to make it a factor on the Billboard 200 next week.
Twenty One Pilots, MTV Unplugged (Fueled by Ramen): Alt-pop duo Twenty One Pilots are no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200, which they topped with 2015’s Blurryface and revisiting the top three with follow-ups Trench (2018) and Scaled and Icy (2021). The outfit might not get quite so high with MTV Unplugged, but the duo has maintained a devout fanbase since their mid-’10s breakthrough and may see good sales for the CD and LP-released set.
Everything But the Girl, Fuse (Buzzin’ Fly/Virgin): It’s been nearly a quarter-century since the last album from genre-bending U.K. duo Everything But the Girl, who notched a trio of acclaimed albums in the top half of the Billboard 200 in the ‘90s — most recently 1999’s No. 65-peaking Temperamental. This month’s Fuse looks to make it four in a row, with a variety of vinyl and CD options for purchase, and reviews as strong as the pair received at their commercial peak three decades ago.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 22), one of the biggest rock bands of all-time hopes to score their seventh No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 – but it still has to get through today’s top country artist to do so.
Metallica, 72 Seasons (Blackened): Metallica’s first original album in seven years arrives with no shortage of hype or promotion. The band released four songs in advance of the 12-track set’s April 14 release (including the Mainstream Rock Airplay-topping lead single “Lux Eterna”), held a four-night residency on Jimmy Kimmel Live! during its release week, and even launched a Metallica Logo Generator website last Thursday, which allowed fans to make versions of the cover titled after themselves to share on social media.
And of course, as one of the best-selling bands in rock history, Metallica has no shortage of physical options available for 72 Seasons. There are six vinyl variants for purchase, including standard black, an midnight violet-colored indie store exclusive, a red smoke-colored Target exclusive, a yellow and black swirl-colored Walmart exclusive, and both a smoky black-colored yellow and a black splatter-colored fan club exclusive. There are also two cassette options: a widely available transparent yellow variant, and a smoky black-colored Spotify exclusive.
Will it all be enough to unseat Morgan Wallen’s reigning five-week No. 1, One Thing at a Time – which earned 167,000 equivalent album units in its sixth week atop the chart? It may be close: Metallica should have a clear sales advantage, but without a major streaming hit on the set, it will of course be lagging behind Wallen’s juggernaut in that area (which also has 36 tracks to stream, rather than 72 Seasons‘ 12). The metal gods do have history on their side – their last six official studio albums have all topped the Billboard 200, dating back to their 1991 self-titled blockbuster.
IN THE MIX
Yung Bleu, Love Scars II (Moon Boy University / EMPIRE): Yung Bleu broke out at the beginning of the 2020s as one of the most promising rising singer-rappers, thanks to the Drake-assisted hit “You’re Mines Still” from his successful Love Scars: The 5 Stages of Emotions EP. Three years and a couple studio albums later, he’s back with that mini-set’s sequel – this time a 15-track effort with features from Chris Brown, Ty Dolla $ign and Tink, as well as an Acoustic Deluxe edition featuring four unplugged bonus cuts.
Waterparks, Intellectual Property (Fueled by Ramen): They’ve never had conventional hit singles on radio or streaming, but pop/rock trio Waterparks have been one of the more consistently performing rock acts of the past decade, notching three consecutive albums in the Billboard 200’s top half. This month’s Intellectual Property looks to make it four for four, with four different vinyl variants, four different CD releases and even a pair of cassette options looking to help its cause.
Ice Spice, Like..? (10K Projects/Capitol): Rap phenomenon Ice Spice’s debut EP has been a fixture on the Billboard 200 since debuting at No. 7 in early February, ranking at No. 187 on this week’s chart (dated April 22). The six-track set should make a sizable jump this week, however, following the Nicki Minaj-assisted remix to Like..?’s “Princess Diana,” which has been one of the best-selling and best-streaming new songs since its Friday release — metrics that will count towards the EP’s totals.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 22), NF remains the biggest rapper you don’t hear on radio or RapCaviar, while an ‘00s nu-metal band plans a second Meteora strike on the Billboard 200.
NF, Hope (NF Real Music/Caroline): He hasn’t had a major crossover hit since 2017’s smash “Let You Down” peaked at No. 12 on the Billboard Hot 100, but NF remains one of the world’s biggest rappers with a cult following that remains just outside of mainstream view. His last album, 2019’s The Search, snuck past Chance the Rapper’s more hyped The Big Day for the Billboard 200’s top spot (with a six-figure first week), and the title track and advance single from follow-up album Hope debuted at No. 49 on the Hot 100 in March.
Aiding Hope’s hopes to follow its predecessor to No. 1: big sales numbers, boosted by a variety of physical variants. There’s a signed CD in his online store (just $5!), a standard Target-exclusive CD with a poster packaged inside, four deluxe CD/merch box sets (with a T-shirt, hat, long sleeve T or a hoodie and a CD housed in a box, respectively) and both a white vinyl LP and a standard black version. If he cracks six figures again, NF might be in the same ballpark as Morgan Wallen’s declining One Thing at a Time — but the 167,000 units that album moved in its fifth week at No. 1 is still a higher single-week number than any NF album has posted yet.
Linkin Park, Meteora (Warner/Machine Shop): Meteora was one of the biggest albums of 2003, debuting at No. 1 with over 800,000 in first-week sales, spawning massive hit singles like “Numb” and “Faint” and finishing as the No. 6 album of the Year-End Billboard 200. Next week, the album’s 20th anniversary reissue may drive it to its highest position on the chart since its release year.
The set has already garnered considerable attention for the advance release of “Lost,” a bonus track that the group recorded for Meteora with late Linkin Park lead singer Chester Bennington, whose No. 38 debut on the Hot 100 made it the group’s biggest chart hit in a decade. It’s one of several previously unreleased tracks found on the reissue, which is available in a deluxe three-CD edition, a four-LP vinyl box set, or a five-LP / four-CD super deluxe box set, and should help Meteora make a more explosive chart impact than most new albums.
Daniel Caesar, Never Enough (Republic): Acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter Daniel Caesar has yet to hit the Billboard 200’s top 10, but he’s getting closer: No. 25 with 2017 debut Freudian, then No. 17 with 2019’s Case Study 01. This year’s long-anticipated third album Never Enough has a chance to get him in that range, though it’s lacking any chart hits near the level of his breakout late-’10s hits “Get You” or “Best Part,” and certainly none in the same stratosphere as his appearance on Justin Bieber’s 2021 Hot 100-topper “Peaches.” Caesar does have a climbing Adult R&B Airplay hit in “Let Me Go” (No. 20 this week), as well as three different box sets exclusive to his web store, three different-colored vinyl variants and both standard and signed CDs available for purchase.
In the Mix
Ellie Goulding, Higher Than Heaven (Polydor): One of the U.K.’s most reliable hitmakers of the early ‘10s is back, with what she calls, in a very un-2023 way, her “least-personal” to date. “We didn’t want to write serious songs,” Goulding has said, “we wanted to write about silly things and dancing.” The album’s approach has been well-received critically, but has yet to generate the kind hits either side of the Atlantic that she enjoyed a decade ago.
Rae Sremmurd, Sremm 4 Life (Ear Drummer/Interscope): Speaking of Goulding: Her most recent top 40 Hot 100 hit was scored alongside Swae Lee, who was also a chart fixture of the late ‘10s — both solo and with brother Slim Jxmmi, as hip-hop duo Rae Sremmurd. The Brothers Rae have since fallen somewhat out of commercial favor, but they’re hoping a return to their Sremm album series (responsible for three straight top 10 albums on the Billboard 200 from 2015-18) will bring them back to the limelight. They get additional assistance on Sremm 4 from featured stars Future and Young Thug, as well as production from longtime gold-spinner Mike Will Made-It.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 8), new albums from a wide variety of big names could make for the most debut-crowded top 10 on the Billboard 200 yet in 2023.
Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (Polydor/Interscope): Last year’s Blue Bannisters was Lana Del Rey’s first major label album to miss the Billboard 200 top five, but she seems set to return there with the new Ocean Blvd. The album has received some of the strongest reviews of Del Rey’s career, while seven-minute advance single “A&W” is her first song to reach the Hot Rock & Alternative Songs top 10 since her Weeknd-featuring “Lust for Life” in 2017.
Also helping Ocean Blvd’s numbers: well over a dozen physical variants, including five different-colored options on both vinyl and cassette, and four CD deluxe box sets exclusive to her webstore. (Plus, a special shoutout on the year’s hottest pop tour never hurts.) All of that could create a tunnel from Ocean Blvd to the top of the charts, but it will have to contend with Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time in its fourth week; that album has still been earning over 200,000 equivalent album units a week, and Del Rey has yet to post a single-week number higher than 182,000 (for Ultraviolence in 2014).
Jimin, Face (BigHit/Geffen): Another major contender this week, and the latest BTS alum poised for a major Billboard 200 impact — following J-Hope’s No. 17-debuting Jack in the Box last July and RM’s No. 3-peaking Indigo in December — is Jimin, who should be set for a big debut for his debut album Face. The set has already generated one Hot 100 hit in this week’s No. 30-debuting “Set Me Free Pt. 2,” and could score an even bigger one next week with the entrance of the best-selling “Like Crazy.” Though its six-track length may hurt its streaming totals, Face has the advantage of a simultaneous digital and physical release — where Jack in the Box and Indigo both debuted as digital-only releases — with five different collectible CD variants available (each containing a standard set of items plus randomized photo cards and postcards).
Luke Combs, Gettin’ Old (Columbia/River House): Coming just nine months after last year’s No. 2-peaking Growin’ Up, sibling set Gettin’ Old may return country superstar Luke Combs to the Billboard 200’s top five. Lead single “Love You Anyway” debuted in the Hot 100’s top 15 in February — with advance cuts “Growin’ Up and Gettin’ Old” and “Joe” also reaching the chart — and its studio version of Combs’ live-staple cover of Tracy Chapman’s late ‘80s alt-folk classic “Fast Car” should follow them onto the chart next week. The set is available in CD, cassette and record, with colored-vinyl exclusives for Amazon and Walmart.
In the Mix
Depeche Mode, Memento Mori (Columbia/Mute): Rock and Roll Hall of Famers Depeche Mode look to extend their streak of eight consecutive top 10 studio albums on the Billboard 200 with this month’s Memento Mori, their first album since the May death of founding member Andy Fletcher. The album, supported by the group’s first world tour in a half decade, was met with critical acclaim, and spawned their first top 15 hit on the Alternative Airplay chart since 2009 with lead single “Ghosts Again.”
Fall Out Boy, So Much for Stardust (Fueled by Ramen/DCD2): Fall Out Boy’s first album since 2018’s Billboard 200-topping Mania features more of a return to the emo heroes’ guitar-driven sound, albeit with more of a disco influence in tracks like third single “Hold Me Like a Grudge.” Lead cut “Love From the Other Side” became the group’s first-ever top five hit on the Rock & Alternative Airplay chart when it reached No. 2 earlier this month.
Pink Floyd, The Dark Side of the Moon (Harvest/Capitol): One of the biggest albums in rock history, Pink Floyd’s 1973 prog rock opus Dark Side of the Moon spends its 976th week on the Billboard 200 this week, ranking at No. 172. It should rank a lot higher next week following its 50th anniversary reissue, with a CD and vinyl box set that includes a newly remastered version of the classic album, a 76-page music book, surround sound and Dolby Atmos mixes, and a standalone LP of the group’s 1974 performance of the album at Wembley Arena.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated April 1), Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time juggernaut faces competition from a new U2 album of old U2 songs, as well as a rising star from the Latin world and a pop icon coming to a stadium near you.
U2, Songs of Surrender (Island/Interscope). The members of U2 are no strangers to the top of the Billboard 200, having reached No. 1 eight times in their 43-year recording history, most recently in 2017 with the debut of Songs of Experience. Many of the songs from those albums can be found on Songs of Surrender — a collection of reinvented re-recordings spanning the band’s entire career.
Released on St. Patrick’s Day (March. 17), the collection is also available in 16-track standard, 20-track deluxe and 40-track super deluxe editions (with the later divided into four 10-track discs each named after a band member). Sales will also be helped by a dozen vinyl variants of the album, including exclusives for Target, Amazon and independent retailers — and even a Boston Celtics Limited Edition vinyl, with team-inspired packaging containing an exclusive poster.
Eladio Carrión, 3men2 Kbrn (Rimas). An international swimmer turned social media influencer turned Latin trap hitmaker, Eladio Carrión has become one of this decade’s breakout stars from Rimas Entertainment, home to global superstar Bad Bunny. If his name isn’t yet familiar to you, some of the A-list features on his latest album 3men2 Kbrn will be – they include 50 Cent, Future, Lil Wayne, and of course El Conejo Malo himself, who appears on the set’s lead single “Coco Chanel.”
Taylor Swift, Lover (Republic). As you may have heard, Taylor Swift recently launched her first U.S. tour in six years – and It’s not just the more than 100,000 fans in attendance at the first two dates in Glendale, Ariz. over the weekend who are psyched to see her, Swift’s sales and streams have spiked across her catalog, but the album poised to benefit most on the Billboard 200 is her 2019 set Lover. It’s appropriate, given how it’s the Swift album fans have waited the longest to see on tour, as she was forced to cancel immediate support plans during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
IN THE MIX
EST Gee, Mad (CMG/Interscope). Louisville rapper EST Gee has long seemed to be on the verge of a mainstream breakthrough, in the wake of high-profile early-decade guest appearances on Billboard Hot 100 hits like Lil Baby’s “Real as It Gets” and Jack Harlow’s “Backstage Passes.” He’s reached the Billboard 200’s top 10 three times already, most recently with official debut LP I Never Felt Nun in Sept. 2022, and looks to go for four with last Friday’s Mad mixtape – though outside of southern rap stalwart Boosie Badazz, the set is light on big-name guests.
100 Gecs, 10,000 Gecs (Dog Show/Atlantic): The hyperpop paragons lean more into thick guitar riffs while maintaining their absurdist sense of humor on second album 10,000 Gecs, their first since making the jump to Atlantic. The critically acclaimed set — supported by their first Alternative Airplay-charting hit single, “Hollywood Baby” — is likely to give the duo its highest-charting entry yet on the Billboard 200, following the No. 92 peak of its debut album, appropriately titled 1,000 Gecs.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 25), a longtime stateside household name and a growing global force will compete against Morgan Wallen’s blockbuster in its second week.
Miley Cyrus, Endless Summer Vacation (Columbia): You might expect Miley Cyrus’ new album to debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. Cyrus has been a household name for a decade and a half, and she’s coming off her biggest Billboard Hot 100 hit with the six-week No. 1 “Flowers” — and her new album has largely been met with critical acclaim and positive fan response since its Friday release.
Despite her continued stardom, however, Cyrus has not scored a No. 1 album since 2013’s Bangerz, with her most recent effort (2021’s Plastic Hearts) debuting at No. 2 with 60,000 equivalent album units. A number anywhere near that range would probably not be enough to dethrone Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time, which debuted at No. 1 with 501,000 units on last week’s Billboard 200 (dated March 18). Even if One Thing posts only 40% of that in its second week, that would still be over three times Plastic Hearts’ first-week tally.
Vacation is expected to do better than Hearts, though – helped not only by the continued success of “Flowers” (which holds at No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week) and strong early returns for follow-up single “River,” but also by a variety of physical releases. That includes four vinyl variants (including one exclusive to Target, and two exclusive to her web store) and two deluxe box sets exclusive to her web store — one with a puzzle and a CD, the other with a beach towel and a CD.
TWICE, Ready to Be (JYP/Republic): Though they might not have name recognition as wide as Miley Cyrus in the United States, Korean girl group TWICE might be just as big a threat to Wallen’s place at the top of the Billboard 200 this week. TWICE have reached the chart’s No. 3 spot, well, twice: with 2021 LP Formula of Love: O+T=
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated March 18), Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time crashes the Billboard 200 like an asteroid, with its impact likely to be felt for many weeks to come.
Morgan Wallen, One Thing at a Time (Big Loud/Republic/Mercury): When Morgan Wallen announced the release date of his new album in late January, every artist with an album scheduled for March probably screamed at their phone. Not only is Wallen’s previous album — the 30-track Dangerous: The Double Album – still sitting in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 a full two years after its 2021 release, but this album was going to be even longer: a whopping 36 tracks, six of which ranked on the Billboard Hot 100 the week of One Thing’s March 3 release.
Unsurprisingly, the album’s streams have been eye-popping. Billboard reported on Wednesday that the set’s collected tracks had scored 315 million official on-demand U.S. streams in its first four days (March 3-6) of release – already the biggest week for any 2023 album, the biggest week for any country album (passing Taylor Swift’s Red (Taylor’s Version)’s debut week in 2021), and a significantly bigger week than Dangerous achieved in its full first week (240 million). Perhaps more impressively, despite not yet being available on vinyl, the set has already sold well: 90,000 copies in its first three days, also more than the 74,000 total Dangerous sold in its debut week (with vinyl available).
As of Tuesday, the album was up to over 350,000 equivalent album units – again, both the best of any 2023 album and better than Dangerous’ full debut (265,000). That means it’s already eclipsed the 318,000 units of the first week of SZA’s 23-track SOS in December, and is not far away from the 404,000 of Drake & 21 Savage’s 16-track Her Loss from that set’s November debut — though it should still fall well short of the 1.578 million posted by Swift’s Midnights earlier that month. (A closer battle will be with the 605,000 units of Swift’s Red (Taylor’s Version) for the biggest first week for any country album of the equivalent album units era, which replaced pure album sales as the Billboard 200’s ranking metric in 2014.)
Then it’s a question of how long the album will hold atop the Billboard 200. It will face a worthy competitor next week with the debut of Miley Cyrus’ 13-track Endless Summer Vacation, led by the six-week Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 “Flowers,” and sets are expected later in the month from big names like Fall Out Boy, Lana Del Rey and fellow country superstar Luke Combs. But Dangerous reigned for its first 10 weeks with a shorter tracklist and a much slower start than One Thing, so any challengers to the throne have their work cut out for them.
IN THE MIX
Kali Uchis, Red Moon in Venus (Geffen/EMI): Red Moon marks acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter Kali Uchis’ first album since crossing over with her TikTok-driven 2021 hit “Telepatía.” First-week album sales for the set should be boosted by a variety of available variants, with three different vinyl LPs (including a salmon-colored vinyl exclusive to Urban Outfitters), a signed CD sold exclusively in her official webstore and four different deluxe boxed sets (two with a T-shirt and a CD, two with a hoodie and a CD).
NCT 127, Ay-Yo – The 4th Album Repackage (SM): Korean pop boy band NCT 127 had a top five hit on the Billboard 200 last fall with their fourth album 2 Baddies – which was repackaged and retitled with three new bonus tracks and released to streaming services and digital retailers in January as Ay-Yo. The set should see big gains this week with its physical release, including three different collectible CDs with randomized elements packaged inside.
Macklemore, Ben (Bendo): For veteran Seattle rapper Macklemore’s first album since 2017’s No. 2-peaking Gemini, he’s pulling out all the stops with the physical variants: different-colored vinyl exclusive to his website and to Urban Outfitters, six boxed sets (with such goodies as posters, hoodies and signed CDs) and even a cassette version. The album has been discounted to $3.50 for the CD and digital version on his webstore.
De La Soul, Three Feet High and Rising (AOI): After a decades-long battle over their catalog, legendary New York rap group De La Soul finally brought their full discography to streaming services last Friday (though, sadly, just weeks after the death of co-founder Trugoy the Dove), along with physical reissues of their six albums on vinyl, CD and cassette. Unsurprisingly, the best-performing of their sets looks to be 1989 debut 3 Feet High and Rising – one of the most acclaimed rap albums ever, thanks to classics like “Me, Myself & I,” “Eye Know” and “Buddy,” — which is available in multiple vinyl variants, and may surpass its original Billboard 200 peak of No. 24.
