The Contenders
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Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 14): SZA’s SOS continues to dominate, while YoungBoy Never Broke Again makes a quick return after a busy 2022 and a half-decade-old BTS album debuts on vinyl.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, I Rest My Case (Motown/Never Broke Again): After an absurdly prolific 2022 that included seven full-length releases – two collaborative albums, four mixtapes and one official album – star rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again returns, just two weeks into 2023, with his fifth solo studio album, I Rest My Case. The 19-track set is his first release on his new Motown label, after completing his deal with Atlantic in 2022.
From the early returns, YoungBoy’s previous productivity may be working against him, since the album’s tracks have not taken over the daily DSP charts like past YoungBoy solo albums, the last three of which hit the Billboard 200’s top two. Case will also not be helped by any big-name guests, since the album has no features on its 11 tracks. It will have its work cut out for it getting YoungBoy back to the chart’s top five, let alone threatening the four-week reign of SZA’s SOS blockbuster, which shows little sign of slowing down in its fifth week.
BTS, Love Yourself: Her (Big Hit/Universal): The Love Yourself: Her EP release marked a big U.S. breakthrough for K-Pop superstars BTS back in 2017, reaching the Billboard 200’s top 10 and spawning their first two Billboard Hot 100 hits in “DNA” and “Mic Drop.” The EP is likely to return to the chart’s top tier after making its physical debut on vinyl — the septet’s first-ever release on the format — along with a package that includes seven photo cards (one for each member), two posters, a sticker and a bookmark.
French Montana & DJ Drama, Coke Boys 6 (Coke Boys): Outside of YoungBoy, few hip-hop artists were as prolific on the 2022 charts as DJ Drama, who notched hit albums alongside Jeezy, Snoop Dogg and several other big-name rappers. He’s back this week with veteran New York hitmaker French Montana, for the latest installment in the latter’s signature Coke Boys series. CB6 boasts 20 tracks and a wide variety of big-name guests, including fellow rap stars Kodak Black, Nav and A$AP Rocky, and the set already has its own Money Heist Edition deluxe reissue, adding an extra nine tracks to the total.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Jan. 14): SZA’s SOS kicks off 2023 as the album still to beat, while sets from ATEEZ and Fuerza Regida freshen up the chart.
SZA, S.O.S. (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA). After five years, SZA’s second album had a blockbuster No. 1 debut in December, with 318,000 equivalent album units. The album, which built on SZA’s accelerating momentum over that layover period (including viral solo hits and appearances on radio smashes from Kendrick Lamar and Doja Cat), is still putting up huge numbers in early 2023, just spending its third week at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with over 100,000 units. SOS seems likely to spend winter 2023 how Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti spent last summer and Taylor Swift’s Midnights spent last autumn – as the chart’s default No. 1 for any week where there isn’t a major new release to depose it.
When might that first major new release come? Star rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again announced this week that his I Rest My Case album would come out Jan. 6, as the first release from his new Motown home – though releasing seven full-length projects in 2022 seems to have slowed his chart momentum. Still, 2022’s first two major releases (Gunna’s DS4ever and The Weeknd’s Dawn FM, both released Jan. 7) were both announced mere days before release, so the first big bow of 2023 may well be an album we don’t know about yet.
ATEEZ, Spin Off: From the Witness (KQ Entertainment/RCA) Eight-member K-pop boy band ATEEZ scored a major chart breakthrough last summer with The World EP.1: Movement, which debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200. New set Spin Off: From the Witness may follow Movement to the chart’s top tier – boosted, of course, by at least six different collectible CD variants (including one signed by the group), each containing a set of standard branded paper goods and randomly chosen items (like photocards and posters).
Fuerza Regida, Sigan Hablando (Rancho Humilde/Street Mob). Regional Mexican quintet Fuerza Regida landed their first Billboard Hot 100 hit this week with the TikTok-boosted Grupo Frontera collab “Bebe Dame,” which debuts at No. 91. That song is found on the group’s latest album, Sigan Hablando (released Dec. 28), which should ride the “Bebe” bump to their first entry on the Billboard 200 – though the group has already reached the Top Latin Albums chart five times, and spent 18 weeks atop the Regional Mexican Albums chart in 2022 with their Del Barrio Hasta Aqui set.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 24): Just before the last Christmas push, a final ‘S.O.S.’ from the pop world aims to sleigh the competition.
SZA, S.O.S. (Top Dawg Entertainment/RCA). It’s been five years and countless false starts since R&B superstar SZA dropped her massively influential full-length debut Ctrl. Early signs from the release of her second album S.O.S. indicate that the fans have stuck around: the set dominated the daily Spotify and Apple Music charts over the weekend, while drawing reviews strong enough to make a lot of early December year-end lists look premature.
With no physical release on the schedule, the vast majority of the album’s first-week numbers will mostly come from streaming. But with 23 tracks, including a trio of proven singles in Billboard Hot 100 top 20 hits “Good Days,” “I Hate U’ and “Shirt,” plus guest appearances from Travis Scott and Phoebe Bridgers, it should still end up scoring one of the late year’s strongest debuts.
A Boogie Wit da Hoodie, Me vs. Myself (Highbridge the Label/Atlantic). A Boogie Wit da Hoodie was one of the most prolific artists on the Billboard charts at the turn of the decade, with a couple dozen Hot 100 hits and a Billboard 200 No. 1 album in 2018’s Hoodie SZN. The past two years haven’t been as kind commercially, but the artist born Artist Dubose looks to reverse that trend with the release of fourth studio album Me vs. Myself.
Me vs. Myself will also need to lean on streaming , since it, too, has no physical version and A Boogie has never sold much music – Hoodie SZN was the first album to top the Billboard 200 with sales of under 1,000 copies. But MvM will also get a boost from its 22-song tracklist, with features from fellow streaming stars Kodak Black, Lil Durk, Roddy Ricch.
Anuel AA, LLNM2 (Real Hasta la Muerte/Sony Latin). As with SZA and A Boogie, Latin trap hitmaker Anuel AA’s latest effort arrives without a physical product – but it has a tracklist expansive enough to make both S.O.S. and Me vs. Myself look like EPs by comparison. LLMN2 (short for “Las Leyendas Nunca Mueren 2,” or “Legends Never Die 2”) runs a bountiful 33 tracks, with big-name guests from both reggaetón (Nicky Jam, Jowell & Randy, Zion) and hip-hop (DaBaby, Lil Durk, Kodak Black).
Anuel’s hit the Billboard 200 top 10 twice already, with 2020’s Emmanuel (No. 8) and 2021’s Ozuna teamup Los Dioses (No. 10), but 2021’s first Las Leyendas Nunca Mueren release peaked at No. 30. That album had just 16 tracks, so maybe going with the volume-shooter approach for its sequel will net him the top 10 hat trick.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 17): As holiday titles and heavy hitters vie for the top of the December charts, new albums from a star hip-hop producer and a couple of K-pop hitmakers join in the merriment.
Metro Boomin, Heroes & Villains (Boominati Worldwide/Republic): You might have thought the big album releases were starting to wind down for 2022, but Metro Boomin begs to differ. The Atlanta-via-St. Louis producer has been one of the biggest behind-the-scenes names in hip-hop for a decade, and new album Heroes & Villains shows off his Rolodex, with enough star collaborators — Future, Young Thug, Travis Scott, The Weeknd, 21 Savage, Gunna, even narrator Morgan Freeman — to justify an accompanying short film.
After dominating streaming charts on Spotify and Apple Music over the weekend, the set appears due for a big debut on the Billboard 200 — perhaps even one to challenge the producer’s Republic label-mate Taylor Swift and her five-week No. 1 Midnights for the chart’s top spot. (He hit No. 1 in 2020, with 21 Savage full-length team up Savage Mode II .) Though its consumption is mostly digital, Metro did release a CD version of Heroes & Villains to select physical retailers — and also debuted a deluxe “Heroes Version” of the album to streamers and digital retail on Monday, adding instrumental versions of each track.
RM, Indigo (Big Hit): Singer/songwriter/rapper RM released his solo debut, Indigo, on Friday, a varied album that features marquee R&B names Erykah Badu and Anderson .Paak, as well as veteran Korean hitmakers Tablo and Park Ji-yoon. BTS, the world-conquering group which RM previously achieved stardom with, scored five No. 1 albums over the past half-decade, from 2018’s Love Yourself: Tear to this June’s Proof.
His chart bow for Indigo this week will have to come without help from a physical release, as the set’s CD packages — which often move big numbers for Korea’s biggest pop acts — are not due until Dec. 16. Earlier this year, RM’s bandmate J-Hope entered the Billboard 200 at No. 17 with his own solo album debut Jack in the Box, also only from the support of a streaming and digital retail version of his album. (Jack has yet to be released on CD in the U.S.)
ITZY, Cheshire (JYP Entertainment/Dreamus/Republic): Korean pop quintet ITZY hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 for the first time in July with their sixth EP Checkmate. This week, they aim to return to the top tier with sixth EP, Cheshire, featuring advance English-language single “Boys Like You” — though technically it’s already in its second week of release, since the streaming and digital retail version of the set dropped last Wednesday (Nov. 30).
Cheshire’s chart performance will depend mostly on sales of its physical editions, which went on sale Friday. Like many K-pop releases, the CD came out in collectible deluxe packages (13 total, including versions exclusive to Barnes & Noble, Target and the group’s official webstore), each with a standard set of items and randomized elements (such as photocards and a poster).
IN THE MIX
Backstreet Boys, A Very Backstreet Christmas (K-BAHN/BMG): The classic boy band’s first holiday set made its Billboard 200 debut back in October, but should surge on the chart this week following its Dec. 2 vinyl debut (and the approaching season). It’s only reached No. 17 so far, making this week its best chance of keeping alive Backstreet Boys‘ double-digit streak of consecutive top 10 albums.
Arcangel, Sr. Santos (Rimas Entertainment): Veteran reggaetón and Latin trap hitmaker Arcangel made a splashy return last Wednesday alongside perhaps the biggest male pop star on the planet with the Bad Bunny collab “La Jumpa.” That song should give Sr. Santos, the single’s 18-track parent album released on Friday — which also features appearances from Myke Towers, De La Ghetto and Bizarrap — a nice head start in consumption for this week.
Ivan Cornejo, Dañado (Manzana Records): Regional Mexican star Ivan Cornejo charted at No. 149 on the Billboard 200 in June with sophomore set Dañado, which has since climbed as high as No. 64 thanks to its stellar streaming performance. The seven-track mini-album received a deluxe reissue on Friday, with three new bonus tracks, which should give it a big boost from its current chart perch of No. 145.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 10): Tis the season for holiday albums to invade the top of the charts, but albums from Taylor Swift, Drake and 21 Savage, and Bad Bunny could push back the tree-lighting for a week.
Michael Bublé, Christmas (143/Reprise): It’s beginning to look a lot like Michael Bublé season on the Billboard 200 once again. The 21st century crooner peaks his head into the chart’s top tier this week with his 2011 Christmas set, which climbs 19-10 on the listing dated Dec. 3, and should continue its ascent in the weeks to come.
Christmas, featuring Bublé’s velvety versions of holiday standards like “Jingle Bells,” “Santa Claus Is Coming to Town,” and “White Christmas” (the latter a duet with Shania Twain), is no stranger to the top of the Billboard 200: The album spent five weeks at No. 1 across 2011 and 2012, and finished No. 2 on the Year-End Billboard 200 for 2012, behind Adele’s 21. Last holiday season, Adele was once again the Grinch who stole the Christmas No. 1, as Bublé’s album rose to No. 2 on the Billboard 200 dated Jan. 1, 2022, after her 30.
This year Bublé will face a different challenger: Taylor Swift’s Midnights, which has reigned on the Billboard 200 for four of the past five weeks, posting equivalent album units in the six digits each frame. Time will tell if the Christmas spirit is strong enough to prevail. (Last holiday season, Christmas‘ biggest one-week unit sum was 77,000.)
Mariah Carey, Merry Christmas (Columbia): No artist of the last 30 years is as synonymous with the holiday season as Mariah Carey. However, while Carey’s Billboard Hot 100 dominance has become an annual event – her perennial “All I Want for Christmas Is You” has bested the chart each of the last three holiday seasons, ruling for a combined eight weeks – she has yet to top the Billboard 200 with that single’s parent album.
Merry Christmas climbed as high as No. 3 when it came out in 1994 – Kenny G’s less enduring seasonal set Miracles: The Holiday Album ruled the Dec. 17 chart – but has yet to return to a higher perch than No. 4, which it reached on the chart dated Jan. 4, 2020. (The album’s sequel, Merry Christmas II You, also reached No. 4 upon its Nov. 2010 release.) This week, Merry Christmas jumps 40-19 — still behind Bublé, but you can never count out the Queen of Christmas.
Vince Guaraldi Trio, A Charlie Brown Christmas Soundtrack (Fantasy): It’s not all seasonal pop standards on the Billboard 200: The sentimental pull of jazz pianist Vince Guaraldi’s 1965 soundtrack to the classic A Charlie Brown Christmas special spans generations, and makes the set an annual chart contender in the streaming era. The album hit the Billboard 200’s top 10 for the first time two holiday seasons ago, on the chart dated Jan. 2, 2021, then reached a new peak of No. 6 on the Jan. 1 chart this year. Now it’s once again on the rise, climbing from No. 43 to No. 17 on this week’s chart.
IN THE MIX
Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, Live at the Fillmore 1997 (Warner): This new 58-track live set from Rock and Roll Hall of Famers Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, which spans the group’s 20-night residency at the storied San Francisco venue a quarter-century ago and is available in 2-CD and 3-LP regular editions, 4-CD and 6-LP deluxe editions, plus a limited edition 6xLP Uber Deluxe — should also make a sizeable debut.
Quando Rondo and YoungBoy Never Broke Again, 3860 (Quando Rondo, LLC/Never Broke Again/Atlantic): It’s been five whole weeks since we last covered YoungBoy Never Broke Again in The Contenders, but before the holidays get into full swing, he’s got one more set to sneak into his already project-strewn 2022. This time, it’s a collaborative mixtape with fellow southern rapper Quando Rondo, who is signed to YoungBoy’s label (called Never Broke Again), and takes center stage on the release, with solo showcases on five of its 16 tracks.
Brockhampton, TM (Question Everything/RCA): Brockhampton pulled double duty last week with a pair of farewell releases, The Family and TM. The former set debuted at No. 15 on the most recent Billboard 200 (dated Dec. 3), but the latter was nowhere to be found – a state of affairs that should change this week, as sales of signed CDs available on the band’s website will likely boost the set’s totals to charting levels.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Dec. 3): The most successful original album in Billboard 200 history celebrates its 40th anniversary by returning to the chart’s upper tier, while a pair of new sets from Brockhampton could send the group off with a bang.
Michael Jackson, Thriller (Epic): Just a couple weeks ago, we were talking about Michael Jackson‘s Thriller as a factor on the Billboard 200 following its annual Halloween bump – and now, the set may once again be a threat for the chart’s top tier, thanks to a new reissue celebrating the set’s 40th anniversary. The album is available in limited-edition single LP, or as part of a two-CD set that includes a disc of unreleased demos and bonus material.
This revival is practically unheard of – except for Thriller, which has repeatedly made chart history, including with a record 37 nonconsecutive weeks atop the Billboard 200 from 1982 to 1984. Still, it will face stiff competition from well-performing incumbents by Taylor Swift, Drake and 21 Savage, and Bad Bunny.
Brockhampton, The Family and TM (Question Everything/RCA): After announcing its impending breakup in January, rap collective and “boy band” Brockhampton teased fans with the prospect of a final album out before the end of the year. The Family came out last Thursday (Nov. 17), followed the next day by TM – a two-set farewell to the group’s fans.
Brockhampton has always sold well, thanks to its devoted fan base, and it is offering box sets of The Family and signed copies of TM on its web site. The idea is to follow the success of 2018’s Iradescence, which became the group’s first (and to date, only) album to top the Billboard 200.
Disturbed, Divisive (Reprise): They might not be the most obvious chart conquerors, but few artists have been as consistently successful on the Billboard 200 this century as mainstream rock stalwarts Disturbed. From 2002 to 2015, they topped the chart with five consecutive albums, a streak finally snapped in 2018 with the No. 4 peak of their Evolution.
The Chicago band will look to start a new chart-topping run with this month’s Divisive, its first new album since 2018, which frontman David Draiman calls a “blisteringly angry” set inspired by the tumultuous time. The early response on radio has been positive, with lead single “Hey You” becoming Disturbed’s 11th single to top the Mainstream Rock Airplay chart.
IN THE MIX
Rod Wave, Jupiter’s Diary: 7 Day Theory (Alamo): Florida rapper Rod Wave already topped the BIllboard 200 once in 2022, with August’s Beautiful Mind, thanks to robust streaming numbers from his devoted online following. Fans will have fewer tracks to stream on this month’s Jupiter’s Diary, since the EP only runs a scant eight tracks, including the previously released “Break My Heart.”
Roddy Ricch, Feed the Streets III (Bird Vision/Atlantic): Roddy Ricch’s latest mixtape is the third installment of his Feed the Streets series, but his first since breaking through on the national stage with 2019’s Please Excuse Me for Being Anti-Social and the 2020 11-week Hot 100 No. 1 “The Box.” The set features appearances from Lil Durk and Ty Dolla $ign, and a pair of R&B/Hip-Hop Songs-charting advance tracks in “Stop Breathing” and “Aston Martin Truck.”
Nickelback, Get Rollin’ (Nickelback II Productions/BMG): Disturbed aren’t the only hard rock fixtures back this week: Canadian rockers Nickelback return with its first album in five years, the heavier Get Rollin’. The band has seen its commercial fortunes fade since their ‘00s heyday, but it still has an active run of seven consecutive top 10-peaking albums on the Billboard 200, most recently the 2017 No. 5 Feed the Machine.
Dolly Parton, Diamonds & Rhinestones (Sony Music Entertainment): The recently enshrined Rock and Roll Hall of Famer takes a well-earned victory lap this month with the new greatest hits set Diamonds & Rhinestones. The 23-track collection of Dolly Parton’s personal favorites spans from 1971 breakthrough “Coat of My Colors” to 2020’s “Faith” collab with dance artists Gallantis and Mr. Probz, and is available on streaming, CD and double-LP vinyl.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Nov. 26): Two of the most historic names in rap and rock compete with a solo Directioner, as each of them try to knock Taylor Swift’s Midnights and Drake and 21 Savage’s Her Loss out of the top two spots.
Louis Tomlinson, Faith in the Future (BMG): Back in early 2020, Louis Tomlinson became the last of the five One Direction alums to release a solo album with the No. 9-peaking Walls. He seems likely to return to the top 10 next week with sophomore set Faith in the Future, released last Friday (Nov. 11), which Tomlinson recently described to Billboard as “the record I always wanted to make.”
Helping Tomlinson’s sales total for the new album will be a wide variety of physical options for sale: 10 vinyl variants (including a signed one), a Newbury Comics-exclusive CD with a signed insert, a Target-exclusive CD, a zine CD deluxe package, and even three cassettes.
Bruce Springsteen, Only the Strong Survive (Columbia): Only a handful of artists in history have visited the top of the Billboard 200 more often than The Boss, who has 11 No. 1 albums ranging from 1980’s The River to 2014’s High Hopes. Can he get there again with a new set of covers? He’ll try with Only the Strong Survive, which honors what Springsteen calls “the great American songbook of the ’60s and ’70s,” including classics made famous by Jerry Butler, Ben E. King and The Temptations.
He almost did once already. We Shall Overcome: The Seeger Sessions, a tribute to folk legend Pete Seeger, peaked at No. 3 in 2006 — and every album of newly recorded studio material released by Springsteen so far this century has reached the chart’s top three.
Nas, King’s Disease III (Mass Appeal): Nas received acclaim for the first two installments of his King’s Disease series, both recorded with producer Hit-Boy — including a pair of top five entries on the Billboard 200 and a Grammy nomination each for best rap album, with the first set even giving the rapper his first Grammy win in 2019.
We’ll need to wait another year to find out if King’s Disease III can make it three-for-three with the Grammy recognition, but next week we’ll see if it can match the chart success of the first two. But unlike the first two sets, which boasted guest appearances from the starry likes of Lil Durk, Eminem and Ms. Lauryn Hill, King’s Disease III includes no big features.
In the Mix
GloRilla, Anyways, Life’s Great… (CMG/Interscope): GloRilla is one of this year’s hip-hop breakout success stories, with a pair of vicious Hot 100 hits in HitKidd collab “F.N.F.” and Cardi B teamup “Tomorrow 2,” and now a Grammy nomination for the former in best rap performance. Both songs are featured on her debut EP, Anyways, Life’s Great…, along with seven other hard-hitting tracks to prime audiences for one of the most-anticipated rap debut albums of the next few years.
Rauw Alejandro, Saturno (Sony Music Latin/Duars): Few Latin pop stars outside of his “Party” collaborator Bad Bunny have been as visible on the Billboard charts recently as Rauw Alejandro, who scored his first Hot 100 top 40 hit last year with “Todo de Ti” and has kept the momentum going in 2022 with hits like “Desperados” and “Lokera.” It’s led to the release of his high-octane third studio album, Saturno, which features Alejandro motoring down the same dark, neon-lit sonic highways as The Weeknd’s last couple efforts.
Wizkid, More Love, Less Ego (Starboy/RCA): It’s been a slow and steady trek to global domination for Afrobeats star Wizkid, who topped the Hot 100 in 2016 as a guest on Drake’s “One Dance” and hit the top 10 as a lead artist in 2021 with the unstoppable “Essence.” The Nigerian star takes another victory lap with this month’s More Love, Less Ego, boosted by an internationally streamed live performance in London this Monday, hosted by Apple Music.
Guns N’ Roses, Use Your Illusion (UMG): Guns N’ Roses‘ dual album set of Use Your Illusion I & II debuted in the top two spots of the Billboard 200 back in October 1991 — with II inching past its counterpart. The two sets are combined on this month’s Use Your Illusion (Super Deluxe) box set of seven CDs and 12 LPs, including two early-’90s live shows, while CD and vinyl reissues of each of the individual UYI sets are also available for purchase.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Nov. 12): Taylor Swift’s record-setting Midnights enters its second frame, facing competition from rap star Kodak Black, rising country singer-songwriter Lainey Wilson, and a quartet of up-and-comers from Liverpool.
The Beatles, Revolver: Special Edition (Apple)
It was No. 1 for six weeks in September and October 1966, and 56 years later it could top the Billboard 200 again. The Beatles’ Revolver, widely regarded as one of the greatest rock albums of all time, was reissued on Oct. 28 in a new Special Edition, centered around a stereo remix of the album from Giles Martin (son of original Revolver producer George Martin) and Sam Okell.
The set comes in a variety of different packages: a five-CD (or four-LP plus one 7-inch vinyl) super deluxe version featuring dozens of bonus demos and sessions, a two-CD/LP deluxe version with 15 bonus “Revolver Sessions Highlights,” and a one-CD/LP version with just the original remixed album. (All versions of the album, old and new, are combined for tracking and charting purposes.) The Beatles have already released ambitious box sets dedicated to Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, The Beatles (The White Album), Abbey Road and Let It Be — all of which returned to the Billboard 200’s top 10.
Kodak Black, Kutthroat Bill, Vol. 1 (Atlantic)
Billboard reported last week that hip-hop star Kodak Black will head to Capitol Records when his current deal with Atlantic is through — but he still owes the latter label two albums. The first of them dropped Friday: Kutthroat Bill, Vol. 1, the Florida rapper’s second 2022 release, following February’s Back for Everything.
Kodak is familiar with the Billboard 200’s top spot, as his 2018 album Dying to Live reigned for one week, while Back for Everything debuted at No. 2 behind the Encanto soundtrack. Kutthroat doesn’t have a crossover single as massive as those sets’ “ZEZE” and “Super Gremlin,” respectively — both of which reached the Billboard Hot 100‘s top five — but it does have a streaming-friendly 19 tracks, and a recent Hot 100 debut with the woozy advance single “Walk.”
Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom Country (BBR)
“Lainey Wilson is the next superstar for the format,” proclaimed Charlie Cook, vp Country Format at Cumulus, to Billboard in September. Wilson will show how close she’s gotten to fulfilling that prediction with the release of Bell Bottom Country, her second album since signing to BBR. The set — which like her previous release is produced by Jay Joyce — is preceded by two hit Wilson duets from earlier this year: “Never Say Never” with Cole Swindell (a Country Airplay No. 1) and “Wait in the Truck” with HARDY. Neither cut appears on Bell Bottom Country, but her own “Heart Like a Truck” does — hitting a new peak of No. 23 on Country Airplay this week — as does a cover of ’90s rockers 4 Non Blondes’ karaoke classic “What’s Up?”
IN THE MIX
Baby Keem, The Melodic Blue (pgLang/Columbia): Reigning best new artist Grammy winner Baby Keem’s debut album has been on the Billboard 200 since it debuted at No. 5 in Sept. 2021, sitting at No. 105 on the current week’s chart. Expect it to climb higher next week, thanks to a deluxe reissue with seven new bonus tracks, including guest spots from streaming fixtures Don Toliver, PinkPantheress and Lil Uzi Vert.
The Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Vol. 44 (Rhino): The legendary jam band is a regular on the Billboard 200 with the Dave’s Picks series, which features live shows selected by Grateful Dead archivist David Lemieux. The most recent set, July’s Vol. 43, was the highest-charting on the Billboard 200 to date, reaching No. 11; if Vol. 44 makes the chart’s top 10, it would be the first Dead album to score that high since In the Dark hit No. 6 in 1987.
Smino, Luv 4 Rent (Zero Fatigue/Motown): The acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter’s third album is also his first since announcing the new partnership between his indie/collective Zero Fatigue and the iconic Motown label. The 15-track set includes collaborations with R&B sensations Lucky Daye and Ravyn Lanae, as well as rap superstars J. Cole and (again) Lil Uzi Vert.
Michael Jackson, Thriller (Epic): The best-selling original album in pop music history remains a Billboard 200 fixture; it’s No. 61 this week, in its 545th week on the chart. But it’s also a Spooky Season perennial, thanks largely to its eerie, Vincent Price-narrated title track. Last year the set jumped to No. 25 on the chart following Halloween, and it should be due for another big leap this November.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming chart dated Nov. 5: Taylor Swift’s Midnights laps the rest of 2022’s full-length releases in its first couple of days, while the Arctic Monkeys aim for their first top five entry on the chart and YoungBoy Never Broke Again plans his sixth (!!) top 20 album of 2022.
Taylor Swift, Midnights (Republic)
Soon after its Oct. 21 release, Taylor Swift’s Midnights was no longer competing with the rest of the albums released in the past week, or even in the past year — Billboard reported it as the first album of the 2020s to cruise past the 1 million-equivalent album units mark after just three full days. At this point, Swift’s main rival is her own history: The 1.3 million units it had moved as of Monday (Oct. 24) just passed her reputation and its 1.238 million first-week units moved back in Dec. 2017 for the biggest debut of the past half-decade. (After that, she’s getting into Adele territory.)
Swift pulled off this blockbuster bow by finding a happy medium in between the surprise-release strategy of her 2020 Folklore and Evermore sets and her more traditional rollouts of the 2010s. Though the album was announced months in advance (at August’s MTV Video Music Awards), no singles came out before Midnights did; instead, Swift gradually unveiled song titles and themes of the set, building up anticipation for the set while still keeping its actual sound under wraps. Then, when the 13 tracks finally debuted at once at (of course) midnight on Oct. 21, Swift also teased an additional surprise for the true insomniacs among the Swifties — which ended up being the album’s 3am Edition, a deluxe version with seven bonus cuts.
Swift also boosted her first-week numbers the old-fashioned way: by releasing tons of physical products. Midnights has already set the single-week record for vinyl copies sold in the modern era (since Luminate began tracking music sales in 1991) with over 500,000 records — more than most artists can now manufacture, let alone sell. Her sales are also boosted by a standard digital album, an iTunes-exclusive version with a bonus track, four standard CD and vinyl editions (each with a different cover, and different-colored records; the CDs are available in explicit and censored versions), a cassette tape, and even a Target-exclusive “Lavender” edition of the album on CD and colored-vinyl LP, with three bonus tracks on the CD. For good measure, she sold autographed versions of the four explicit CDs and the four vinyl LPs on her web store.
Arctic Monkeys, The Car (Domino)
In a universe without Swift, this week’s Billboard 200 talk might be about whether or not the Arctic Monkeys would finally score their first No. 1. The U.K. indie quartet, superstars in their home country for the better part of two decades, have claimed six straight No. 1s on the U.K. Official Charts without getting higher than No. 6 on the Billboard 200, with 2013’s A.M.. But the group has only grown in stateside popularity since that album’s release, with several tracks from both that set and their older catalog becoming streaming perennials after finding popularity on TikTok.
This week, the band releases its seventh album, The Car, preceded by the dreamy singles “There’d Better Be a Mirrorball” and “Body Paint.” Neither song has found the same streaming success as lusty old hits — “505,” from 2007’s Favourite Worst Nightmare, remains their lone entry on this week’s Rock Streaming Songs chart. But the album has received rave reviews, and the band is preparing for its biggest tour so far, including arena headlining dates in Chicago and Boston, and two nights at New York’s Forest Hills stadium.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Ma’ I Got a Family (Atlantic): Another week, another Billboard 200 contender from New Orleans rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again. After hitting the chart’s top 20 with each of his first five full-length releases this year (including a collaborative set with DaBaby) – most recently with mixtape 3800 Degrees, which debuted at No. 12 just earlier this month – he’s now looking to go six for six with Ma’ I Got a Family. (Given the rapper’s recent decamping from Atlantic to Motown, some insiders have speculated that his particularly prolific release schedule of late has been at least partly motivated by contract fulfillment.)
If the market isn’t too crowded for another YoungBoy album, this one might get a warmer reception on streaming than his previous one. While 3800 Degrees ran just 13 tracks and featured no big-name guest stars, Family boasts 19 tracks and includes marquee features from Nicki Minaj and Yeat. It’s also hosted by DJ Drama in the style of his classic Gangsta Grillz mixtapes – a throwback framework for the 23-year-old MC that also helped propel Tyler, the Creator’s Call Me If You Get Lost set to No. 1 in 2021.
IN THE MIX
Jeezy & DJ Drama, SNOFALL (YJ/Def Jam): Speaking of DJ Drama – he’s had a busy week, also co-headlining the Snofall set with southern rap great and frequent collaborator Jeezy. The 17-track set features appearances by next-generation streaming stars Lil Durk, 42 Dugg and EST Gee.
Carly Rae Jepsen, The Loneliest Time (School Boy/Interscope): It was 10 years ago that Carly Rae Jepsen’s “Call Me Maybe” first swept the U.S., topping the Billboard Hot 100 and introducing a new karaoke standard to the masses. The Canadian singer-songwriter has found more modest crossover success in the years since, but remains a cult favorite among pop fans – a status re-confirmed with her well-received sixth album, The Loneliest Time, and advance singles “Western Wind” and “Beach House.”
Le Sserafim, Antifragile (Source) After making their EP debut in May with Fearless, Korean quintet Le Sserafim returns this October with sophomore EP Antifragile, which arrives with eight different varieties of CD packages box set (including randomized paper-good inserts like photocards and posters). The set’s title track has already made an international impact, debuting at No. 79 on Billlboard’s Global 200 listing this week.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week: Lil Baby aims for his second straight No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart, while Red Hot Chili Peppers try to go two for two in 2022, and Backstreet Boys try to get ahead of the game with their first-ever Christmas set.
Lil Baby, It’s Only Me (Quality Control/Motown)
When his sophomore set My Turn debuted at No. 1 in March 2020 and reigned for five nonconsecutive weeks, it cemented Lil Baby as one of the pre-eminent rappers of the young decade. The ATL star hopes to continue rising with It’s Only Me, which has been preceded by a steady stream of singles — most don’t appear on the set, but the biggest one does: Billboard Hot 100 No. 14 hit “In a Minute.”
As with My Turn, which debuted with 261.6 million on-demand streams for its collected songs — at the time of its release, the highest total for any album that year — It’s Only Me is expected to dominate streaming services. The set includes a whopping 23 tracks, and high-profile guest appearances from Future, Young Thug, Pooh Shiesty and more. (Even without a new album last year, Lil Baby still finished at No. 8 on Billboard’s Year-End Streaming Songs Artists chart.)
Red Hot Chili Peppers, Return of the Dream Canteen (Warner)
The recent reunion of the Rock and Roll Hall of Famers with longtime guitarist John Frusciante led to a productivity overflow, in the form of two new albums. The first, April’s Unlimited Love, debuted atop the Billboard 200 with 97,500 equivalent album units, and spawned the year’s longest-running No. 1 on the Rock & Alternative Airplay chart with “Black Summer.”
Last Friday, RHCP returned with their second new album of 2022, Return of the Dream Canteen, another 75 minutes of melodic punk-funk. As with Unlimited Love, which sold a then-2022-high 38,500 copies on vinyl, Dream Canteen should see robust sales numbers powered by a dozen different-colored LP options, as well as four CDs (and a box set that includes a shirt). The set also boasts a Rock & Alternative Airplay No. 1 of its own in “Tippa My Tongue,” which has crowned the chart for three weeks and counting.
The 1975, Being Funny in a Foreign Language (Dirty Hit)
The Manchester alt-pop quartet has been one of the most consistently successful U.K. bands of the past decade on both sides of the pond. The group has topped the Official Charts in their home country with each of their first four albums, and made the Billboard 200’s top five with each of their last three – including the 2016 No. 1 I Like It When You Sleep, for You Are So Beautiful, Yet So Unaware of It. This month, they look to continue both streaks with the release of fifth studio set Being Funny in a Foreign Language, featuring co-production by pop-rock whisperer Jack Antonoff.
The group is off to a good start in the U.K., and three songs released in advance from the set have already reached the top 30 of Billboard’s Rock Songs chart in “Happiness,” “I’m in Love With You” and “All I Need to Hear.” Two advantages the band had with their past set won’t help them this time, though: 2020’s No. 4-peaking Notes on a Conditional Form came with a ticket bundle, which are no longer counted towards Billboard 200 consumption, and it also goosed its streaming totals with a 22-song track list, twice as many as the 11 featured on Being Funny.
IN THE MIX
Bailey Zimmerman, Leave the Light On (Warner Music Nashville): Few country breakout stories this year have excited as much as Bailey Zimmerman, who largely bypassed the Nashville machine to score three Hot 100 top 40 hits (“Fall in Love,” “Rock and a Hard Place” and “Where It Ends”) before he ever had a top 10 Country Airplay hit. All three of those TikTok-boosted streaming smashes are featured on Leave the Light On, Zimmerman’s nine-track debut EP.
Noah Kahan, Stick Season (Mercury/Republic): The indie-pop singer-songwriter has steadily built a cult fandom since signing to Republic a half-decade ago, which should culminate in his first Billboard 200-charting effort with this month’s folkier and more personal Stick Season. Credit the set’s title track, a breakout success on streaming and radio, and a career-best No. 11 hit for Kahan on the Rock Songs chart this August.
Backstreet Boys, A Very Backstreet Christmas (K-BAHN): The Boys-turned-men enter the seasonal music game this month with A Very Backstreet Christmas, featuring BSB covers of 10 holiday standards and a trio of group originals. Holiday music is often a reliable seller for catalog pop favorites like Backstreet, and the quintet has a streak to protect here: Each of their 10 Billboard 200-charting albums to date has made the top 10.