State Champ Radio The Contenders
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The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated Aug. 19), Morgan Wallen is four weeks from making Billboard Hot 100 history – but may not get there, if Luke Combs, Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo or other rising hitmakers have anything to say about it.
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Morgan Wallen, “Last Night” (Big Loud/Mercury/Republic): Wallen’s first Hot 100 No. 1 – and a rare country No. 1 with no co-lead artists or obvious pop crossover attempt (though it has still become a top five hit at pop and adult radio) – has slowly but surely elbowed its way into the Billboard record books. With its 15th week at No. 1 (on the Hot 100 dated Aug. 12), “Last Night” ties Harry Styles’ “As It Was” (2022) for both the longest-leading No. 1 of the 2020s, and the longest in the Hot 100’s now-65-year history from an unaccompanied artist.
Next in its sights: 16 weeks and a tie for the second-longest run atop the Hot 100, alongside Mariah Carey and Boyz II Men’s “One Sweet Day” (1995-96) and Luis Fonsi and Daddy Yankee’s Justin Bieber-featuring “Despacito” (2017). After that, only one song stands between it and all-time Hot 100 No. 1 supremacy: Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road,” featuring Billy Ray Cyrus, which held on top for a record-breaking 19 weeks in 2019.
Unlike “Old Town Road,” which Lil Nas X worked tirelessly to push to No. 1 and keep there – with a succession of music videos, remixes, high-profile live performances and social media memes – Wallen has leaned almost all the way back for “Last Night,” doing remarkably little public promotion outside of the One Night at a Time World Tour that he’s been on since March. Rather, its reign has been more reminiscent of Styles’ 2022 run at No. 1, where the song’s performance simply held across all categories (streams, sales and radio airplay) both strong enough and long enough to essentially serve as the default Hot 100-topper anytime there wasn’t a major new release.
But how long and how strong is it still holding after 15 weeks at No. 1 (and 27 weeks total on the chart)? There are finally real signs of slippage, as the song falls on each of the Streaming Songs (from No. 1 to No. 3), Digital Song Sales (6-7) and Radio Songs (2-4) charts this week. The door is creaking open, but another song will still have to charge through – and as of this week, “Last Night” remains the only hit in the top 10 of all three charts.
Luke Combs, “Fast Car” (River House/Columbia Nashville/Columbia): The most immediate threat to “Last Night” would have to be the song that’s landed exactly one spot below it on the Hot 100 every week since July 1. Luke Combs‘ “Fast Car” is actually leading “Last Night” on both Digital Song Sales (steady at No. 4 this week) and Radio Songs (climbing 3-2), though it still trails it significantly on Streaming Songs (No. 11, buried under an avalanche of Travis Scott debuts).
The big question for “Fast Car” is if it can gain enough on “Last Night” on radio – the only metric where either song is still growing – to make up for its streaming shortfall. While it’s already had a five-week run at No. 1 on Country Airplay, finally replaced on top this week by Jelly Roll’s “Need a Favor,” it still has room to grow on top 40 radio, with the song inching up 13-12 on the Pop Airplay listing this week; it also hits No. 1 on Adult Pop Airplay, while pushing 8-7 on Adult Contemporary. If it continues to grow steadily there, while staying level on streaming, it may close the gap enough with “Last Night” in the next couple of weeks.
Taylor Swift, “Cruel Summer” (Republic): Swift already came close to unseating Wallen earlier this summer, when her Midnights single “Karma” shot to No. 2 (largely thanks to a boost from a new Ice Spice-featuring remix), but could not quite depose “Last Night.” Now she should have another shot – not with a new song, but an older one: “Cruel Summer,” a former deep cut from her 2019 album Lover, which has ridden a wave of fan fervor and seasonal momentum (as well as official label promotion) to become a hit, and reaches a new peak of No. 4 on the Hot 100 this week.
The story with “Cruel Summer” is similar to that of “Fast Car”: “Last Night” has a sizable edge on streaming (“Summer” ranks just No. 19 on Streaming Songs this week), but is starting to fade on radio while “Summer” surges. And “Summer” is really starting to swelter on the airwaves: It became Swift’s record-setting 12th No. 1 on Pop Airplay last week, and breaks the top five on Radio Songs this week in just its seventh frame on the chart. If its velocity keeps up, it may pass both Combs’ and Wallen’s hits in due time, and could be in the hunt for No. 1 shortly after.
An interesting wrinkle in this three-way race: None of these songs have proper music videos or remixes yet on streaming services. This is essentially par for the course for Wallen (who has not historically leaned on remixes or made a music video since last summer’s “You Proof”), and outside of a recently released live clip, Combs has taken a mostly hands-off approach to promoting his “Fast Car” cover, which he did not originally intend to be a single. Swift has extensive recent history of both official videos and remixes, though – albeit only for Midnights singles, so there’s no precedent for her to pull those levers for an older song. If she does so, though, it could give “Summer” the extra heat it needs to get over the top.
IN THE MIX
Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): Morgan Wallen may have the No. 1 spot on the Hot 100 this week, but otherwise the chart belongs to Travis Scott: All 19 tracks from his July album Utopia debut this week, led by the Drake-featuring “Meltdown” (No. 3) and the Playboi Carti-featuring “FE!N,” while “K-POP,” with Bad Bunny and The Weeknd, is already a rising radio hit. Those tracks will likely lose some ground in streaming next week, but if one of them (or any of the other 17) begins to catch some viral heat, Scott certainly has the streaming juice to become a factor: He’s topped the Hot 100 four times already, including with previous album Astroworld’s breakout single “Sicko Mode.”
Gunna, “fukumean” (YSL/300): While 2023 has been short on breakout hip-hop hits, “fukumean” has been a notable exception since its July release, as part of Gunna’s A Gift & A Curse album. The TikTok-boosted smash has gotten as high as No. 4 on the Hot 100 – it slips to No. 7 this week – but it continues to perform exceptionally on streaming, and is starting to find its footing on radio, surging 28-20 on R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay. If top 40 – which has never been particularly kind to Gunna – decides to give the song (and its radio-unfriendly hook, at least in unedited form) a real chance, he could force his way into the top three before long.
Olivia Rodrigo, “Vampire” and “Bad Idea Right” (Geffen): Rodrigo’s lead single from her much-anticipated upcoming sophomore album Guts, “Vampire” actually did already debut at No. 1, but slid in subsequent weeks as first-week streams and (especially) sales declined. The song is still hanging around the lower reaches of the top 10, though– with airplay rapidly picking up (13-11 on Radio Songs this week) – and it may soon be joined in the top tier by new single “Bad Idea Right,” which is due this Friday, and very likely to extend her streak of top 10 Hot 100 debuts.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated August 5), Travis Scott could score the biggest debut for a rap album in 2023 so far with his first album in five years.
Travis Scott, Utopia (Cactus Jack/Epic): There must have been a little anxiety in the Travis Scott camp as he geared up for July’s Utopia release. Not only was it Scott’s first album since the blockbuster Astroworld five years earlier, but it was his first following the catastrophic stage rush at his 2021 Astroworld Fest, which left 10 dead and cast a huge shadow over Scott’s career. Subsequent releases (like the 2022 Pharrell collab “Down in Atlanta”) failed to make much chart impact, and there seemed to at least be a chance that a similar fate would befall Utopia.
From its early returns on streaming, however, it seems like Scott & co. needn’t have worried. Billboard reported yesterday that the album posted a massive 266.21 million official on-demand U.S. streams in its first five days of release. That puts it just a few million short of the full-first-week total for Taylor Swift’s Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (269.33 million), which currently stands as the second-biggest streaming week of 2023 so far, and about 83 million short of Astroworld’s first-week tally (349.43 million) with two days still unaccounted for.
In addition to its robust streaming debut, the album should also sell well in its physical release, thanks largely to a wide variety of options. There are 15 deluxe boxed sets for the album, each containing a different piece of clothing with either a copy of the CD or vinyl LP – and a different cover with each box for the CD or vinyl LP contained inside. There are also two Fan Pack offers — where the customer could buy a piece of branded clothing and a copy of the physical album together for a discounted price, or choose to buy the items separately if they wanted. And of course, there’s the stand–alone physical album – available in five different CDs or five different vinyl LPs (the same physical albums contained in the boxed sets noted above) — and a digital edition, discounted to $4.99 in Scott’s webstore. (Physical copies of the album were only for sale through the webstore, as the set is currently unavailable at any other retailers.)
It should all add up to one of the biggest debuts for any album in 2023 – and almost certainly the highest first-week number for an R&B/hip-hop album this year. (The current top tally is held by Lil Uzi Vert’s Pink Tape, which debuted with 167,000 equivalent album units, including 210.39 million in streaming.)
Post Malone, Austin (Mercury/Republic): Three or four years ago, a first-week race between Travis Scott and Post Malone on the Billboard 200 would have been among the most exciting (and likely the closest) that pop music could’ve offered, as two of the most consistently successful recording artists of the late ‘10s. But while the intervening years may not have dampened Scott’s first-week album numbers much, they’ve had a bigger impact on Post Malone’s performance – his dour 2022 album Twelve Carat Toothache only posted about a quarter of the first-week units as 2019’s Hollywood’s Bleeding, and was relegated to a No. 2 debut on the Billboard 200.
That chart position may again be the best-case scenario for 2023’s Austin, Post Malone’s return to more upbeat pop music, albeit more guitar-based than the trap beats he made his stardom rapping over. From the early returns, the set is streaming well, but nowhere near as well as Utopia – on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart for the Friday when both albums debuted (July 28), every track from Austin appeared on the top 200, but the album’s highest-finishing song still placed lower than the worst-performing Utopia cut.
Nonetheless, the album should still stream and sell well – significantly better than any non-Scott new release this week. The latter portion will be helped by two Fan Pack offers (similar to the ones Scott offers for Utopia), as well as a range of additional physical releases that includes three vinyl variants and a cassette option. (The set was also reissued mid-week in a deluxe edition, including the new bonus track “Joy.”)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 29), the two best-performing artists of 2023 battle again for the top spot, while new sets from a late rapper and a hip-hop star recovering from a near-death experience could make big bows.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): Taylor Swift is in the midst of a Billboard 200 week for the history books. Not only does her Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) debut at No. 1 with a 2023-best 716,000 units – the highest first-week number since her own Midnights last November – but it’s one of four Swift albums in the chart’s top 10 this week, along with Midnights (No. 5), Lover (No. 7) and Folklore (No. 10). The last living artist who had that many albums in the top 10 at the same time was Herb Alpert, way back in 1966.
Now, Swift will try to do something she’s yet to do with one of her Taylor’s Version re-recordings: hold at No. 1 for a second straight week. Though both her Fearless and Red redos debuted atop the chart with massive first-week numbers, both were deposed in the next frame: Fearless by YSL’s label showcase Slime Language 2 and Red by Adele’s much-anticipated 30. (Fearless did return for a second week on top months later, following its release on vinyl and signed CD.)
Swift’s primary competition will be – of course – Morgan Wallen, still at No. 2 with his 15-week chart-topper One Thing at a Time. The album continues to post weekly units in the six digits, and will likely have the streaming advantage over Swift with its 36 tracks (including the long-reigning Streaming Songs No. 1, “Last Night.”), as Swift’s massive first-week sales numbers take the usual second-week drop. However, Swift is following her biggest Taylor’s Version debut yet, and a second week even 15% as strong as her first week would still have been enough to get past Wallen’s most recent One Thing total.
IN THE MIX
King Von, Grandson (Only the Family/Empire): Chicago rapper King Von only released one album during his lifetime, 2020’s No. 5-peaking Welcome to O’Block, but he was well on his way to hip-hop stardom when he was shot to death that November. He’s already released one posthumous album with 2022’s No. 2-debuting What It Means to Be King, and he may hit the top 10 a third time with last Friday’s (July 14) Grandson, featuring guest appearances from hitmakers like Polo G, Lil Durk and Moneybagg Yo.
Lil Tjay, 222 (Columbia): New York rapper Lil Tjay’s promising career was derailed in June 2022 when he was shot multiple times during an attempted robbery. He survived the shooting, and on Friday released his first album since getting out of the hospital, 222. The album includes features from Summer Walker, The Kid LAROI, YoungBoy Never Broke Again and more, plus the first-person narrative “June 22,” named after the day of his ‘22 shooting.
Lauren Spencer-Smith, Mirror (Republic): The early-2022 viral breakout of teenage singer-songwriter (and former American Idol contestant) Lauren Spencer-Smith‘s heartbreak ballad “Fingers Crossed” earned her Olivia Rodrigo comparisons, and a deal with Republic Records. Subsequent singles haven’t fared as well, but Smith hopes to make good on that early promise with debut album Mirror – which she released on Friday as a “Fan Pack” (with vinyl and a shirt), as a boxed set (CD and shirt) and as a signed CD.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 22), Taylor Swift once again leaves the rest of the pop world in the dust with perhaps her best-performing Taylor’s Version full-album recreation yet.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): When it was released in 2010 as her third album, Speak Now became Taylor Swift’s first set to sell over a million copies in its first week. Her Taylor’s Version re-recording of the fan-favorite album might not post a seven-digit debut, but it’s already come closer than any other album in 2023. Billboard reported on Tuesday (July 11) that this Speak Now had passed 575,000 equivalent album units in just its first four days — already blowing past the 501,000 moved by previous mark-setter, Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time, in its first frame.
Those would be incredible numbers for any new release in 2023, let alone one where 16 of the 22 tracks included are near-soundalike re-dos of 13-year-old songs. Making the 400,000 in direct sales that the album has already accrued even more impressive is that the album is only available in a handful of physical editions – three vinyl variants (including an exclusive color for Target), a CD, a cassette, and a digital release – compared to many 2020s best-sellers (including Swift’s own 2022 blockbuster Midnights), which are released in dozens of physical editions to maximize fan purchases.
Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) has already put Swift’s peers in its rearview, but how will it compare to her own recently set standards? It’s unlikely to get close to the first-week numbers of Midnights, which scored an unthinkable-for-2022 1.578 million units. But it has a very good chance of passing 2021’s Red (Taylor’s Version), which debuted with 605,000 units, to become the biggest first week for any of her three re-recordings to date.
To pass Red (Taylor’s Version) would also be pretty staggering for this Speak Now, considering it has fewer tracks (22 to Red (TV)’s 30) and lacks a song driving as much pre-release excitement as that set’s “All Too Well (10-Minute Version),” which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 the same week the new Red topped the Billboard 200. (“I Can See You,” one of the set’s six first-time recordings, did receive a music video co-starring Speak Now-era Taylorverse fixtures Joey King, Taylor Lautner and Presley Cash, and looks to be due for a major Hot 100 debut next week.)
In the Mix
Lucki, S*x M*ney Dr*gs (EMPIRE): One of the most acclaimed rappers from the current rising wave of Chicago MCs, Lucki reached a career-best No. 12 on the Billboard 200 with 2012’s Flawless Like Me set. He may do even better with this month’s S*x M*ney Dr*gs mixtape, which only features one guest (fellow cult favorite Veeze) on its 15 tracks, but is already posting career-best streaming numbers that most rappers would be, well, lucky to have in 2023.
Dominic Fike, Sunburn (Columbia): If you listened to Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist last week, you might have noticed that the lead track was not from Taylor Swift’s latest, but rather from the long-awaited second album for singer-songwriter Dominic Fike. Columbia executives still have big hopes for Fike, who greatly increased his profile last year with a big role on HBO phenomenon Euphoria, and he may have something of a breakout hit with the album’s “Mona Lisa” — written for and briefly included on the deluxe edition of Metro Boomin’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse soundtrack — which climbs to No. 36 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart this week.
Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (Polydor/Interscope): Lana Del Rey’s ninth album debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200 in April — and while it’s remained on the chart for the past 15 weeks, it’s dropped all the way to No. 184. It should rebound significantly next week, though. thanks to a recent vinyl reissue with a cover featuring a partially nude photo of Del Rey. (She had previously considered the image for the album’s original cover, before deciding to “let the songs do the talking for now.”)
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 8), an unexpected release from an incarcerated rapper leads a week that also includes some familiar names releasing debut albums, and others releasing their first projects in six years.
Young Thug, Business Is Business (YSL/300): A week after Gunna reached the Billboard 200’s No. 3 spot with his A Gift & A Curse album, his labelmate Young Thug should have a chance of doing even better with his new set, Business Is Business. Much interest in the new set is undoubtedly driven by not only the rapper’s incarceration, while he awaits trial on racketeering charges, but also his possibly strained relationship with Gunna — who was similarly indicted in the RICO trial, but released after taking an Alford Plea (a formal admission of guilt made while also maintaining innocence).
The alleged drama between the two rappers isn’t the only thing spurring consumption of the set, though. Young Thug has long been one of the most successful rappers on streaming, and Business’ tracklist is filled with appearances from A-listers like Drake, Lil Uzi Vert, Future, 21 Savage & Travis Scott. The 15-track set, which does not yet have a physical release, is also receiving today a deluxe Metro’s Version, named after its executive producer (and longtime Thug collaborator) Metro Boomin, and including two extra bonus tracks, including one with appearances from superstars Nicki Minaj and the late Juice WRLD.
Standing in the album’s way, of course, is Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time – now the longest-reigning album of the last 10 years on the Billboard 200, with its 14 weeks on top. That album is still posting weekly units in the low six figures, so Thug will need to do a little better than the 90,000 first-week units his most recent album (2021’s Punk) notched to claim the top spot. (He would also score the first hip-hop No. 1 album of 2023 on the Billboard 200 in the process.)
Peso Pluma, Génesis (Double P/Prajin/The Orchard): No star around the globe has risen as quickly or as dramatically this year as Mexican corridos singer-songwriter Peso Pluma. He’s already made such an impact on the Billboard Hot 100 this year – reaching the chart 11 times, including with the top 5 hit “Ella Baila Sola,” alongside Eslabon Armado – that it’s pretty hard to believe that last week’s 14-track set Génesis is actually his debut album.
The album – which technically debuted last Thursday (June 22), bowing at No. 35 on Billboard’s Top Latin Albums chart with less than a full day of consumption– does not load up on those aforementioned Hot 100 hits, with only closer “Bye” having reached the chart. That should change next week, with the album dotting the daily charts of DSPs, led by likely breakout hit “Lady Gaga” with Gabito Ballesteros and Junior H. It’ll have to do most of its damage on streaming, as the album is also not yet for sale in any physical formats.
Kelly Clarkson, Chemistry (Atlantic): While veteran pop/rock hitmaker Kelly Clarkson isn’t the streaming force that Young Thug and Peso Pluma are, her Chemistry album will probably have much more of a sales impact. The LP, her first since 2017’s Meaning of Life is available in at least six different vinyl variants, including some retail-exclusive editions – along with a signed CD sold in her webstore, and Amazon- and Target-exclusive versions with a poster and alternate cover, respectively. It may be enough to help Chemistry became Clarkson’s eighth consecutive top five-charting original album, a streak that stretches all the way back to 2003 debut Thankful.
IN THE MIX
Kim Petras, Feed the Beast (Amigo/Republic): Though cult pop favorite Kim Petras has been releasing acclaimed singles, EPs and mixtapes for six years now, June’s Feed the Beast is her official debut album. It arrives after her breakthrough success with the Hot 100-topping “Unholy” — which is featured here, along with the Nicki Minaj-featuring “Alone” – and is being sold as a signed CD in her webstore.
Portugal. The Man, Chris Black Changed My Life (Atlantic): Portugal. The Man a very personally and collectively trying half-decade following their 2017 breakout smash “Feel It Still,” as chronicled in the group’s recent Billboard digital cover story. Their new set – named after PTM’s longtime friend and touring hypeman, who died in 2019 – doesn’t feature a single like that, but it does have a top 10 Rock & Alternative Airplay hit with “Dummy.” It’s also available as a cassette, as a signed CD, and in multiple vinyl variants.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 1), a star rapper looks to continue his hot streak, while hard rock veterans and K-poppers also put the top spot in their sights.
Gunna, A Gift and a Curse (YSL/300): Though Gunna has been under attack on social media since last December for his supposed “snitching” in accepting an Alford plea — a formal admission of guilt while also maintaining innocence — for his part in the YSL RICO trial, it appears that he remains a prolific performer on streaming. (He denied any cooperation with the prosecution.) His new album A Gift and a Curse has littered the Spotify and Apple Music real-time charts since its release last Friday (June 16), with the shout-along “fukumean” already seeming like a breakout hit from the set.
The rapper born Sergio Giavanni Kitchens has been a regular visitor to the top spot of the Billboard 200 since his late-’10s rise to stardom. And he’s already been there three times this decade – with his own Wunna (2020) and DS4Ever (2022) albums, and as a co-lead on the YSL showcase compilation Slime Language 2 (2021). DS4Ever, Gunna’s most recent set, was also his most popular, moving 150,000 first-week units and topping even The Weeknd’s new Dawn FM to claim the top spot.
To unseat Morgan Wallen – who returns to No. 1 for a 13th frame with his One Thing at a Time blockbuster this chart week – he’ll need to do it almost entirely with streaming (with help from digital sales), as the album is not yet for sale in any physical format. Wallen posted 115,000 units in its most recent week, so if Gunna can approach his DS4ever debut performance with his new set, he should have a pretty good shot of becoming the latest act to interrupt the country star’s months-long reign.
Ateez, The World Ep.2: Outlaw (KQ/RCA/Legacy): It’s going to be a classic case of sales vs. streams in next week’s competition for top debut on the Billboard 200. Eight-piece Korean boy band Ateez has yet to establish a big stateside presence on streaming services, but like many popular K-pop acts, the act sells physical copies by the truckload – which has already helped their Spin Off: From the Witness set hit No. 7 earlier this year, and their The World Ep.1: Movement EP get all the way to No. 3 on the Billboard 200 last August.
The sequel to that latter EP, The World Ep. 2: Outlaw is also expected to make a pretty big chart splash next week, again thanks to robust physical sales. To maximize that opportunity, the octet has released 21 different collectible CD editions of Outlaw, including some signed variants, all containing branded merchandise and randomized items (action cards, partner cards, photo cards) — as well as a Target-exclusive edition.
Queens of the Stone Age, In Times New Roman… (Matador): Queens of the Stone Age albums are becoming increasingly infrequent – it’s been six years since the band’s Villains – but the veteran hard rock band has historically been a strong performer on the Billboard 200, and it even topped the chart two albums ago with 2013’s …Like Clockwork. This month’s In Times New Roman… will be helped by a series of different-colored vinyl variants, though thus far the album lacks a hit single to match Villains’ top 10-charting Rock Airplay hit “The Way You Used to Do.”
In the Mix
J. Cole, Born Sinner (ByStorm/Columbia/Dreamville/Roc Nation): As fans eagerly await a new album from Cole — and as he sticks around the top five on the BillboardHot 100 with his appearance on Lil Durk’s smash “All My Life” — fans also have new goodies to tide them over with the vinyl reissue of his 2013 chart-topper Born Sinner. The LP is available in a trio of color variants, including a translucent red exclusive to Target.
Asake, Work of Art (YNBL/Empire): Asake’s debut album Mr. Money With the Vibe was one of the most-acclaimed and best-received Afrobeats albums of 2022, reaching the top half of the Billboard 200. The Nigerian singer/songwriter looks to do even better than that set’s No. 66 bow with this month’s Work of Art, which has already scored a pair of top 10 hits on the Billboard U.S. Afrobeats Songs chart with advance tracks “Amapiano” (with Olamide) and “2:30.”
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 18), Stray Kids aim for their third No. 1 album in two years, while new albums from rising country hitmakers, star producers and veteran rockers also jockey for position.
Stray Kids, 5-Star (JYP/Republic): Stray Kids have proven themselves among pop’s most consistent performers of any nationality on the Billboard 200 in the past couple years, having topped the chart twice already in 2022 alone, with EPs Oddinary and Maxident. This week, they should have a pretty good shot at making it three in a row with their new 12-track LP, 5-Star.
Once again, physical sales should drive consumption of the new set, with a variety of available options for fans. That includes 18 total collectible CD packages (with exclusives for Barnes & Noble, Target, Walmart, the Weverse store and a signed edition in the group’s official webstore) that contain artist-branded merch, some of which is standard across all packages and some of which is randomized (photo cards, mini posters, sticker sets, photo books).
There are also four alternative digital versions of the album, sold only in the act’s webstore, each containing the same tracklists, but with alternative covers and bonus tracks (each with different voice memos from individual members of the group), selling for $6.99 each. After 12 consecutive weeks of Morgan Wallen largely streaming his way to No. 1, we might have our second straight week of sales determining the chart’s top spot, following Taylor Swift’s reissue-prompted Midnights rebound last week.
Jelly Roll, Whitsitt Chapel (Bailey & Buddee/BBR Music Group): Billboard’s May cover star has yet to get higher than No. 97 on the Billboard 200 – but that should change with the release of Whitsitt Chapel, Jelly Roll‘s first album since pivoting fully to country. The set follows the 2022 breakout success of Ballads of the Broken singles “Dead Man Walking” and “Son of a Sinner” — as well as a star making night at the 2023 CMT Awards, where he took home three trophies — and features a hit of its own with “Need a Favor,” which climbs 40-31 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week.
Though Jelly Roll streams fairly well, sales should also make up the majority of Whitsitt Chapel’s first-week numbers. To that end, he’s released the album in three vinyl LPs (including a color variant exclusive for Walmart), a standard CD, a signed CD that was sold through his webstore, a digital download (which is discounted to an on-brand $4.20 in his webstore), nine deluxe CD boxed sets that include branded merch and a copy of the CD, and even a “hymnal” Zine/CD package.
Metro Boomin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Soundtrack From and Inspired by the Motion Picture) (Boominati/Republic): With rave reviews and strong early box office returns, the new Across the Spider-Verse is well on its way to becoming one of the year’s biggest movies – and its soundtrack might not be too far behind. Curated by super-producer Metro Boomin, who most recently topped the Billboard 200 last December with his Heroes &Villains set, the similarly star-studded soundtrack features appearances from such big names as Future, Lil Uzi Vert, 21 Savage, A$AP Rocky, Coi Leray, Nas and Swae Lee.
The set does not yet have a physical release – it is available for digital download — but it should stream enough to still be a major factor on the chart, with three tracks still in the top 20 of Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA chart as of Wednesday. It should also get a nice boost from the mid-week drop of a deluxe edition of the album, boasting an extra six tracks and additional appearances from Dominic Fike, Becky G, Shenseea and more hitmakers.
IN THE MIX
Foo Fighters, But Here We Are (Roswell/RCA): The first Foo Fighters album since the shocking death of drummer Taylor Hawkins in early 2022, But Here We Are is led by the Rock & Alternative Airplay-topping single “Rescued,” and has received some of the strongest reviews of the band’s career. The album is not expected to stream in huge numbers, though, and is available in fewer variants than some of its competition: just in black vinyl, white vinyl, CD and cassette versions and as a digital download.
Enhypen, Dark Blood (Belift Lab/Genie/Stone): Stray Kids aren’t the only Korean boy band expected to make a big impact on the Billboard 200 this week – there’s also septet Enhypen, who previously hit No. 6 on the chart with 2022 EP Manifesto: Day 1. Their new six-track set Dark Blood was released digitally on May 22, but this chart week brings its physical release – which, like 5-Star, includes 17 collectible CD packages (with a number of store exclusives) that contain artist-branded merch, some of which is standard across all packages and some randomized.
Moneybagg Yo, Hard to Love (Roc Nation/Bread Gang/N-Less/Collective Music Group, Interscope): Moneybagg Yo was set to release new mixtape Hard to Love the previous Friday, but decided not to go up against his “little baby Taylor” and her Midnights reissues. He’s still going to have his work cut out for him rising above the glut of new releases this week, particularly without any kind of physical release – but the Memphis rapper has enjoyed regular success on the Billboard 200 in recent years, with his last three albums all hitting the chart‘s top five, and 2021’s A Gangsta’s Pain reaching the top spot.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 11), Morgan Wallen’s 12-week No. 1 faces formidable challenges from a deluxified Taylor Swift blockbuster and a new Lil Durk album.
Taylor Swift, Midnights (Republic): Remember this one? It’s not as though Taylor Swift’s massive Midnights has ever fallen far from the top spot after its seismic, 1.57 million-unit-moving debut week last October – as recently as the chart dated May 27, it was perched in the runner-up spot. But next week, it may have its best chance yet at getting back to No. 1 since it ceded the Billboard 200‘s top spot to Metro Boomin’s Heroes and Villains set last December.
That’s for several reasons, including new physical and digital re-issues of Midnights that came out last Friday (May 26). For vinyl enthusiasts, she debuted the new Love Potion purple marble variant of Midnights, which is available in independent stores (and was also briefly for preorder sale on her webstore earlier in the week). Fans more comfortable with DSPs and MP3s can get the Til Dawn edition of Midnights, which includes three bonus tracks: another version of the original album’s Lana Del Rey-featuring “Snow on the Beach” (this time with more Lana), a remix of “Karma” featuring buzzy rapper Ice Spice and “Hits Different,” previously available only on the Target-exclusive physical edition of Midnights.
If all that isn’t enough, there’s also Midnights (The Late Night Edition) — which was also very briefly for sale as a digital download on Swift’s webstore, as well as in CD form at her three live shows at New Jersey’s MetLife Stadium over the weekend. This version also includes the new takes on “Snow” and “Karma,” and an original bonus cut, “You’re Losing Me,” which is not yet available for streaming. Between all these new editions of Midnights – already one of the best-performing albums of the 2020s — the clock may finally be ticking for Morgan Wallen’s continuous run at No. 1 with One Thing at a Time.
Lil Durk, Almost Healed (Only the Family/Alamo/Sony): If not for Midnights re-entering the discussion, we’d likely be talking about the latest album from hip-hop superstar Lil Durk as having the best chance of unseating One Thing at No. 1. The Chicago rapper’s Almost Healed is his first LP since last year’s 7220, which brought him to the top of the Billboard 200 for the first time as an unaccompanied solo artist.
Durk is also riding his biggest Billboard Hot 100 success to date as a lead artist, with Almost Healed’s J. Cole-featuring advance single “All My Life” debuting at No. 2 on the Hot 100 last week. Beyond Cole, the 21-track set also features a wide variety of big-name guests, including Future, 21 Savage, Alicia Keys, Kodak Black, the late Juice WRLD – and even Wallen himself, who teams up again with his old “Broadway Girls” co-star for this album’s “Stand by Me.”
IN THE MIX
Kodak Black, Pistolz & Pearlz (Atlantic/Sniper Gang): Speaking of Kodak Black: The Florida rapper is also back, with his own follow-up to a smash 2022 LP (the “Super Gremlin”-featuring Back for Everything) in new set Pistolz & Pearlz. The new album, which has no A-list features and also lacks a physical release (or a lead single on the level of the top five-peaking Hot 100 hit “Gremlin”) may be Kodak’s final one for Atlantic — with the chart-topping rapper inking a new deal in 2022 to move to Capitol after his contract was done.
Matchbox Twenty, Where the Light Goes (Atlantic): The last time we heard from turn-of-the-century pop/rock superstars Matchbox Twenty, in 2012, they were topping the Billboard 200 with the band’s fourth album, North. A lot has changed about the industry and about the top 40 landscape since, but the group returns this year with fifth album Where the Light Goes and is offering multiple vinyl variants with alternate cover art (as well as cassette, CD and digital releases) for the album, to hopefully still put up a first-week number worthy of the group’s best-selling ‘00s days.
Tina Turner, All the Best: The Hits (Parlophone): Tina Turner’s death last week at age 83 sent the music industry into mourning, and fans to DSPs and online retailers to consume the legendary performer’s classic catalog. The set of hers that has received the bulk of the attention so far is her 2004 compilation All the Best, which assembles 18 of her signature hits, with most of the focus on her ‘80s and ‘90s solo material. The collection debuts at No. 45 on the Billboard 200 this week and will likely climb even higher in the first full week following her passing.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated June 4), a veteran rock group looks to score its first Billboard 200 No. 1 of the 2020s, with competition from a U.K. singer-songwriter, a couple hard rock outfits, and – of course – Morgan Wallen.
Dave Matthews Band, Walk Around the Moon (RCA): It might not be the first group that comes to mind when naming the biggest acts of the past 30 years, but few rock bands have ever enjoyed as consistent success as the Dave Matthews Band on the Billboard 200. The group has reached No. 1 with each of their last seven studio albums — a streak dating back to 1998’s Before These Crowded Streets – and hopes to make it eight with the release of last Friday’s (May 19) Walk Around the Moon, its first album of the 2020s.
However, the DMB’s chances to unseat Morgan Wallen (11 weeks and counting with his One Thing at a Time) will be impacted by a change in Billboard’s charts since the last time it released an album: the 2020 elimination of ticket bundles from Billboard 200 calculations, which previously provided a big boost to the exceedingly popular live outfit. (Recent rule changes have reintroduced “fan pack” bundles to Billboard chart calculations, but through merch rather than tickets, and with much stricter rules about eligibility.) Instead, the band will have to rely largely on physical sales — to which end, it has released multiple vinyl variants, including exclusive color variants for the band’s fan club, Barnes & Noble, independent record stores and Target.
Lewis Capaldi, Broken by Desire to Be Heavenly Sent (Vertigo/Universal/Capitol): Though Scottish singer-songwriter Lewis Capaldi reached the apex of the Billboard Hot 100 with his late-’10s breakthrough hit “Someone You Loved,” he topped out at No. 20 on the Billboard 200 with debut album Divinely Uninspired to a Hellish Extent. After a few years of steady fanbase building, he may fare a little better with sophomore set Broken by Desire to Be Heavenly Sent — which features a more modest Hot 100 success with lead single “Forget Me” (No. 58) but has multiple vinyl LPs, four CD editions and even five cassette variants available for purchase.
Summer Walker, Clear 2: Soft Life (LVRN/Interscope): R&B star Summer Walker is on her way to being one of the most consistent LP artists of her generation — 2019 debut set Over It hit No. 2 on the Billboard 200 and its 2021 sequel, Still Over It, made it to No. 1, both also drawing considerable critical acclaim – but her EP success has been less resounding, with 2020’s Life on Earth tapping out at No. 8, with no real breakout hits. Her latest EP is Clear 2: Soft Life, a nine-track offering with a pair of big-name guests in J. Cole and Childish Gambino — but again, the set’s songs have not performed on the streaming charts the way Still Over It’s tracks did in their first week, suggesting fans still want to enjoy a longer Summer.
In the Mix
Ghost, Phantomine (Loma Vista) / Sleep Token, Take Me Back to Eden (Spinefarm): The streaming era has not been particularly generous to hard rock and heavy metal, but two bands from those genres that have found real success are Ghost and Sleep Token. Both will impact the charts next week with new releases: Ghost with a covers EP (featuring takes on Genesis, Iron Maiden and Tina Turner) and Sleep Token with their first LP since going viral with advance track “The Summoning” earlier this year. Those built-in streaming numbers will boost Eden, while Phantomine is aided by multiple vinyl LP variants and (somewhat ironically) a Spotify-exclusive cassette.
Beyoncé, Renaissance (Parkwood/Columbia): Whether it can spark the kind of extended catalog-wide gains that Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour has in its first couple months remains to be seen, but the launch of Beyoncé’s Renaissance Tour has already given its titular album a nice bump on the Billboard 200, lifting it 49-34 on this week’s chart. It may rise even higher next week with the Friday release of her new “America Has a Problem” remix, featuring rap superstar Kendrick Lamar, which is off to a good start on streaming and whose metrics will be rolled in with the original Renaissance album cut.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated May 20), new albums from big names in the worlds of pop, hip-hop and country look to impact the Billboard 200’s top tier — along with a reissued dance chart-topper from a decade ago.
Jonas Brothers, The Album (Republic): The brothers band already had one of the century’s most successful comebacks after a decade-long hiatus in 2019, topping both the Billboard 200 and the Billboard Hot 100 with their Happiness Begins album and its single “Sucker.” Now the trio looks to do it again with The Album — a set heavily influenced by ‘70s and ‘80s top 40, as well as by their lives as family men.
The Album lacks a lead single as popular as “Sucker,” but the addictive “Waffle House” has started to scale the Hot 100, climbing to No. 82 this week. The group has also been extremely visible in its promotional lead-up to the album, performing two songs from it on Saturday Night Live in April, and kicking off its Five Albums, One Night Tour at Yankee Stadium, playing all of not only The Album, but also their other four albums before it.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Richest Opp (Never Broke Again/Motown): Surprise: Three weeks after his second full-length of 2023, April’s Don’t Try This at Home, YoungBoy is back with the new mixtape Richest Opp. At just 17 tracks, it’s about half the running time of Home, and with none of its big-name features. But it does come with some drama: Opp, announced just days before its release, was set to drop the same day as a (later delayed) new album from fellow star rapper Lil Durk, who YoungBoy has been taking shots at over social media, and who is one of the rappers YoungBoy calls out in the new set’s antagonistic “F–k the Industry Pt. 2.”
Bailey Zimmerman, Religiously. The Album (Warner Nashville/Elektra): As Morgan Wallen continues his still-uninterrupted reign atop the Billboard 200 — now at 10 weeks and counting for his One Thing at a Time — he faces a challenge from a breakout artist whose sound and ascent both mirror his own. Bailey Zimmerman has become one of the most consistently viral artists in country music — with radio success now to match, now that Hot 100 top 10 hit “Rock and a Hard Place” also topped the Country Airplay chart for six weeks — thanks to a delivery that similarly mixes power and vulnerability and lyrics that feel both personal and clever.
Whether the student can depose the master depends on if the rest of his debut album Religiously. The Album streams as well as its advance singles, “Rock” and fellow Hot 100 hits “Fall in Love” and “Fix’n to Break,” all of which are included among the set’s 16 tracks. Zimmerman will also get a boost from several sales variants, including a signed CD (available via his web store), as well as digital and cassette releases.
In the Mix
Daft Punk, Random Access Memories (Columbia): Though the duo of Thomas Bangalter and Guy-Manuel de Homem-Christo officially went their separate ways two years ago, the robots are back this week with a 10th anniversary edition of their Billboard 200-topping, album of the year Grammy-winning 2013 album Random Access Memories. The set features a new disk of bonus cuts — including demos, alternate versions and even sequels to some of the original’s tracks – and can be purchased digitally, or as a triple-LP vinyl or double-disc CD set.
Lauren Daigle, Lauren Daigle (Centricity/Atlantic): It’s been five years since CCM breakthrough artist Lauren Daigle crashed the charts with her No. 3-peaking Look Up Child LP and its surprise No. 29 Hot 100 hit “You Say,” but the powerhouse artist often referred to as “the Christian Adele” is now back with her self-titled third album. Lauren Daigle has yet to spawn a crossover hit like “You Say,” but lead single “Thank God I Do” topped Billboard’s Hot Christian Songs listing, and is available for sale in three CD versions and a whopping six vinyl variants, as well as digitally.
