The Contenders
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Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Nov. 26): Two of the most historic names in rap and rock compete with a solo Directioner, as each of them try to knock Taylor Swift’s Midnights and Drake and 21 Savage’s Her Loss out of the top two spots.
Louis Tomlinson, Faith in the Future (BMG): Back in early 2020, Louis Tomlinson became the last of the five One Direction alums to release a solo album with the No. 9-peaking Walls. He seems likely to return to the top 10 next week with sophomore set Faith in the Future, released last Friday (Nov. 11), which Tomlinson recently described to Billboard as “the record I always wanted to make.”
Helping Tomlinson’s sales total for the new album will be a wide variety of physical options for sale: 10 vinyl variants (including a signed one), a Newbury Comics-exclusive CD with a signed insert, a Target-exclusive CD, a zine CD deluxe package, and even three cassettes.
Bruce Springsteen, Only the Strong Survive (Columbia): Only a handful of artists in history have visited the top of the Billboard 200 more often than The Boss, who has 11 No. 1 albums ranging from 1980’s The River to 2014’s High Hopes. Can he get there again with a new set of covers? He’ll try with Only the Strong Survive, which honors what Springsteen calls “the great American songbook of the ’60s and ’70s,” including classics made famous by Jerry Butler, Ben E. King and The Temptations.
He almost did once already. We Shall Overcome: The Seeger Sessions, a tribute to folk legend Pete Seeger, peaked at No. 3 in 2006 — and every album of newly recorded studio material released by Springsteen so far this century has reached the chart’s top three.
Nas, King’s Disease III (Mass Appeal): Nas received acclaim for the first two installments of his King’s Disease series, both recorded with producer Hit-Boy — including a pair of top five entries on the Billboard 200 and a Grammy nomination each for best rap album, with the first set even giving the rapper his first Grammy win in 2019.
We’ll need to wait another year to find out if King’s Disease III can make it three-for-three with the Grammy recognition, but next week we’ll see if it can match the chart success of the first two. But unlike the first two sets, which boasted guest appearances from the starry likes of Lil Durk, Eminem and Ms. Lauryn Hill, King’s Disease III includes no big features.
In the Mix
GloRilla, Anyways, Life’s Great… (CMG/Interscope): GloRilla is one of this year’s hip-hop breakout success stories, with a pair of vicious Hot 100 hits in HitKidd collab “F.N.F.” and Cardi B teamup “Tomorrow 2,” and now a Grammy nomination for the former in best rap performance. Both songs are featured on her debut EP, Anyways, Life’s Great…, along with seven other hard-hitting tracks to prime audiences for one of the most-anticipated rap debut albums of the next few years.
Rauw Alejandro, Saturno (Sony Music Latin/Duars): Few Latin pop stars outside of his “Party” collaborator Bad Bunny have been as visible on the Billboard charts recently as Rauw Alejandro, who scored his first Hot 100 top 40 hit last year with “Todo de Ti” and has kept the momentum going in 2022 with hits like “Desperados” and “Lokera.” It’s led to the release of his high-octane third studio album, Saturno, which features Alejandro motoring down the same dark, neon-lit sonic highways as The Weeknd’s last couple efforts.
Wizkid, More Love, Less Ego (Starboy/RCA): It’s been a slow and steady trek to global domination for Afrobeats star Wizkid, who topped the Hot 100 in 2016 as a guest on Drake’s “One Dance” and hit the top 10 as a lead artist in 2021 with the unstoppable “Essence.” The Nigerian star takes another victory lap with this month’s More Love, Less Ego, boosted by an internationally streamed live performance in London this Monday, hosted by Apple Music.
Guns N’ Roses, Use Your Illusion (UMG): Guns N’ Roses‘ dual album set of Use Your Illusion I & II debuted in the top two spots of the Billboard 200 back in October 1991 — with II inching past its counterpart. The two sets are combined on this month’s Use Your Illusion (Super Deluxe) box set of seven CDs and 12 LPs, including two early-’90s live shows, while CD and vinyl reissues of each of the individual UYI sets are also available for purchase.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming Billboard 200 albums chart dated Nov. 12): Taylor Swift’s record-setting Midnights enters its second frame, facing competition from rap star Kodak Black, rising country singer-songwriter Lainey Wilson, and a quartet of up-and-comers from Liverpool.
The Beatles, Revolver: Special Edition (Apple)
It was No. 1 for six weeks in September and October 1966, and 56 years later it could top the Billboard 200 again. The Beatles’ Revolver, widely regarded as one of the greatest rock albums of all time, was reissued on Oct. 28 in a new Special Edition, centered around a stereo remix of the album from Giles Martin (son of original Revolver producer George Martin) and Sam Okell.
The set comes in a variety of different packages: a five-CD (or four-LP plus one 7-inch vinyl) super deluxe version featuring dozens of bonus demos and sessions, a two-CD/LP deluxe version with 15 bonus “Revolver Sessions Highlights,” and a one-CD/LP version with just the original remixed album. (All versions of the album, old and new, are combined for tracking and charting purposes.) The Beatles have already released ambitious box sets dedicated to Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band, The Beatles (The White Album), Abbey Road and Let It Be — all of which returned to the Billboard 200’s top 10.
Kodak Black, Kutthroat Bill, Vol. 1 (Atlantic)
Billboard reported last week that hip-hop star Kodak Black will head to Capitol Records when his current deal with Atlantic is through — but he still owes the latter label two albums. The first of them dropped Friday: Kutthroat Bill, Vol. 1, the Florida rapper’s second 2022 release, following February’s Back for Everything.
Kodak is familiar with the Billboard 200’s top spot, as his 2018 album Dying to Live reigned for one week, while Back for Everything debuted at No. 2 behind the Encanto soundtrack. Kutthroat doesn’t have a crossover single as massive as those sets’ “ZEZE” and “Super Gremlin,” respectively — both of which reached the Billboard Hot 100‘s top five — but it does have a streaming-friendly 19 tracks, and a recent Hot 100 debut with the woozy advance single “Walk.”
Lainey Wilson, Bell Bottom Country (BBR)
“Lainey Wilson is the next superstar for the format,” proclaimed Charlie Cook, vp Country Format at Cumulus, to Billboard in September. Wilson will show how close she’s gotten to fulfilling that prediction with the release of Bell Bottom Country, her second album since signing to BBR. The set — which like her previous release is produced by Jay Joyce — is preceded by two hit Wilson duets from earlier this year: “Never Say Never” with Cole Swindell (a Country Airplay No. 1) and “Wait in the Truck” with HARDY. Neither cut appears on Bell Bottom Country, but her own “Heart Like a Truck” does — hitting a new peak of No. 23 on Country Airplay this week — as does a cover of ’90s rockers 4 Non Blondes’ karaoke classic “What’s Up?”
IN THE MIX
Baby Keem, The Melodic Blue (pgLang/Columbia): Reigning best new artist Grammy winner Baby Keem’s debut album has been on the Billboard 200 since it debuted at No. 5 in Sept. 2021, sitting at No. 105 on the current week’s chart. Expect it to climb higher next week, thanks to a deluxe reissue with seven new bonus tracks, including guest spots from streaming fixtures Don Toliver, PinkPantheress and Lil Uzi Vert.
The Grateful Dead, Dave’s Picks Vol. 44 (Rhino): The legendary jam band is a regular on the Billboard 200 with the Dave’s Picks series, which features live shows selected by Grateful Dead archivist David Lemieux. The most recent set, July’s Vol. 43, was the highest-charting on the Billboard 200 to date, reaching No. 11; if Vol. 44 makes the chart’s top 10, it would be the first Dead album to score that high since In the Dark hit No. 6 in 1987.
Smino, Luv 4 Rent (Zero Fatigue/Motown): The acclaimed R&B singer-songwriter’s third album is also his first since announcing the new partnership between his indie/collective Zero Fatigue and the iconic Motown label. The 15-track set includes collaborations with R&B sensations Lucky Daye and Ravyn Lanae, as well as rap superstars J. Cole and (again) Lil Uzi Vert.
Michael Jackson, Thriller (Epic): The best-selling original album in pop music history remains a Billboard 200 fixture; it’s No. 61 this week, in its 545th week on the chart. But it’s also a Spooky Season perennial, thanks largely to its eerie, Vincent Price-narrated title track. Last year the set jumped to No. 25 on the chart following Halloween, and it should be due for another big leap this November.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming chart dated Nov. 5: Taylor Swift’s Midnights laps the rest of 2022’s full-length releases in its first couple of days, while the Arctic Monkeys aim for their first top five entry on the chart and YoungBoy Never Broke Again plans his sixth (!!) top 20 album of 2022.
Taylor Swift, Midnights (Republic)
Soon after its Oct. 21 release, Taylor Swift’s Midnights was no longer competing with the rest of the albums released in the past week, or even in the past year — Billboard reported it as the first album of the 2020s to cruise past the 1 million-equivalent album units mark after just three full days. At this point, Swift’s main rival is her own history: The 1.3 million units it had moved as of Monday (Oct. 24) just passed her reputation and its 1.238 million first-week units moved back in Dec. 2017 for the biggest debut of the past half-decade. (After that, she’s getting into Adele territory.)
Swift pulled off this blockbuster bow by finding a happy medium in between the surprise-release strategy of her 2020 Folklore and Evermore sets and her more traditional rollouts of the 2010s. Though the album was announced months in advance (at August’s MTV Video Music Awards), no singles came out before Midnights did; instead, Swift gradually unveiled song titles and themes of the set, building up anticipation for the set while still keeping its actual sound under wraps. Then, when the 13 tracks finally debuted at once at (of course) midnight on Oct. 21, Swift also teased an additional surprise for the true insomniacs among the Swifties — which ended up being the album’s 3am Edition, a deluxe version with seven bonus cuts.
Swift also boosted her first-week numbers the old-fashioned way: by releasing tons of physical products. Midnights has already set the single-week record for vinyl copies sold in the modern era (since Luminate began tracking music sales in 1991) with over 500,000 records — more than most artists can now manufacture, let alone sell. Her sales are also boosted by a standard digital album, an iTunes-exclusive version with a bonus track, four standard CD and vinyl editions (each with a different cover, and different-colored records; the CDs are available in explicit and censored versions), a cassette tape, and even a Target-exclusive “Lavender” edition of the album on CD and colored-vinyl LP, with three bonus tracks on the CD. For good measure, she sold autographed versions of the four explicit CDs and the four vinyl LPs on her web store.
Arctic Monkeys, The Car (Domino)
In a universe without Swift, this week’s Billboard 200 talk might be about whether or not the Arctic Monkeys would finally score their first No. 1. The U.K. indie quartet, superstars in their home country for the better part of two decades, have claimed six straight No. 1s on the U.K. Official Charts without getting higher than No. 6 on the Billboard 200, with 2013’s A.M.. But the group has only grown in stateside popularity since that album’s release, with several tracks from both that set and their older catalog becoming streaming perennials after finding popularity on TikTok.
This week, the band releases its seventh album, The Car, preceded by the dreamy singles “There’d Better Be a Mirrorball” and “Body Paint.” Neither song has found the same streaming success as lusty old hits — “505,” from 2007’s Favourite Worst Nightmare, remains their lone entry on this week’s Rock Streaming Songs chart. But the album has received rave reviews, and the band is preparing for its biggest tour so far, including arena headlining dates in Chicago and Boston, and two nights at New York’s Forest Hills stadium.
YoungBoy Never Broke Again, Ma’ I Got a Family (Atlantic): Another week, another Billboard 200 contender from New Orleans rapper YoungBoy Never Broke Again. After hitting the chart’s top 20 with each of his first five full-length releases this year (including a collaborative set with DaBaby) – most recently with mixtape 3800 Degrees, which debuted at No. 12 just earlier this month – he’s now looking to go six for six with Ma’ I Got a Family. (Given the rapper’s recent decamping from Atlantic to Motown, some insiders have speculated that his particularly prolific release schedule of late has been at least partly motivated by contract fulfillment.)
If the market isn’t too crowded for another YoungBoy album, this one might get a warmer reception on streaming than his previous one. While 3800 Degrees ran just 13 tracks and featured no big-name guest stars, Family boasts 19 tracks and includes marquee features from Nicki Minaj and Yeat. It’s also hosted by DJ Drama in the style of his classic Gangsta Grillz mixtapes – a throwback framework for the 23-year-old MC that also helped propel Tyler, the Creator’s Call Me If You Get Lost set to No. 1 in 2021.
IN THE MIX
Jeezy & DJ Drama, SNOFALL (YJ/Def Jam): Speaking of DJ Drama – he’s had a busy week, also co-headlining the Snofall set with southern rap great and frequent collaborator Jeezy. The 17-track set features appearances by next-generation streaming stars Lil Durk, 42 Dugg and EST Gee.
Carly Rae Jepsen, The Loneliest Time (School Boy/Interscope): It was 10 years ago that Carly Rae Jepsen’s “Call Me Maybe” first swept the U.S., topping the Billboard Hot 100 and introducing a new karaoke standard to the masses. The Canadian singer-songwriter has found more modest crossover success in the years since, but remains a cult favorite among pop fans – a status re-confirmed with her well-received sixth album, The Loneliest Time, and advance singles “Western Wind” and “Beach House.”
Le Sserafim, Antifragile (Source) After making their EP debut in May with Fearless, Korean quintet Le Sserafim returns this October with sophomore EP Antifragile, which arrives with eight different varieties of CD packages box set (including randomized paper-good inserts like photocards and posters). The set’s title track has already made an international impact, debuting at No. 79 on Billlboard’s Global 200 listing this week.
Welcome to The Contenders, a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week: Lil Baby aims for his second straight No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart, while Red Hot Chili Peppers try to go two for two in 2022, and Backstreet Boys try to get ahead of the game with their first-ever Christmas set.
Lil Baby, It’s Only Me (Quality Control/Motown)
When his sophomore set My Turn debuted at No. 1 in March 2020 and reigned for five nonconsecutive weeks, it cemented Lil Baby as one of the pre-eminent rappers of the young decade. The ATL star hopes to continue rising with It’s Only Me, which has been preceded by a steady stream of singles — most don’t appear on the set, but the biggest one does: Billboard Hot 100 No. 14 hit “In a Minute.”
As with My Turn, which debuted with 261.6 million on-demand streams for its collected songs — at the time of its release, the highest total for any album that year — It’s Only Me is expected to dominate streaming services. The set includes a whopping 23 tracks, and high-profile guest appearances from Future, Young Thug, Pooh Shiesty and more. (Even without a new album last year, Lil Baby still finished at No. 8 on Billboard’s Year-End Streaming Songs Artists chart.)
Red Hot Chili Peppers, Return of the Dream Canteen (Warner)
The recent reunion of the Rock and Roll Hall of Famers with longtime guitarist John Frusciante led to a productivity overflow, in the form of two new albums. The first, April’s Unlimited Love, debuted atop the Billboard 200 with 97,500 equivalent album units, and spawned the year’s longest-running No. 1 on the Rock & Alternative Airplay chart with “Black Summer.”
Last Friday, RHCP returned with their second new album of 2022, Return of the Dream Canteen, another 75 minutes of melodic punk-funk. As with Unlimited Love, which sold a then-2022-high 38,500 copies on vinyl, Dream Canteen should see robust sales numbers powered by a dozen different-colored LP options, as well as four CDs (and a box set that includes a shirt). The set also boasts a Rock & Alternative Airplay No. 1 of its own in “Tippa My Tongue,” which has crowned the chart for three weeks and counting.
The 1975, Being Funny in a Foreign Language (Dirty Hit)
The Manchester alt-pop quartet has been one of the most consistently successful U.K. bands of the past decade on both sides of the pond. The group has topped the Official Charts in their home country with each of their first four albums, and made the Billboard 200’s top five with each of their last three – including the 2016 No. 1 I Like It When You Sleep, for You Are So Beautiful, Yet So Unaware of It. This month, they look to continue both streaks with the release of fifth studio set Being Funny in a Foreign Language, featuring co-production by pop-rock whisperer Jack Antonoff.
The group is off to a good start in the U.K., and three songs released in advance from the set have already reached the top 30 of Billboard’s Rock Songs chart in “Happiness,” “I’m in Love With You” and “All I Need to Hear.” Two advantages the band had with their past set won’t help them this time, though: 2020’s No. 4-peaking Notes on a Conditional Form came with a ticket bundle, which are no longer counted towards Billboard 200 consumption, and it also goosed its streaming totals with a 22-song track list, twice as many as the 11 featured on Being Funny.
IN THE MIX
Bailey Zimmerman, Leave the Light On (Warner Music Nashville): Few country breakout stories this year have excited as much as Bailey Zimmerman, who largely bypassed the Nashville machine to score three Hot 100 top 40 hits (“Fall in Love,” “Rock and a Hard Place” and “Where It Ends”) before he ever had a top 10 Country Airplay hit. All three of those TikTok-boosted streaming smashes are featured on Leave the Light On, Zimmerman’s nine-track debut EP.
Noah Kahan, Stick Season (Mercury/Republic): The indie-pop singer-songwriter has steadily built a cult fandom since signing to Republic a half-decade ago, which should culminate in his first Billboard 200-charting effort with this month’s folkier and more personal Stick Season. Credit the set’s title track, a breakout success on streaming and radio, and a career-best No. 11 hit for Kahan on the Rock Songs chart this August.
Backstreet Boys, A Very Backstreet Christmas (K-BAHN): The Boys-turned-men enter the seasonal music game this month with A Very Backstreet Christmas, featuring BSB covers of 10 holiday standards and a trio of group originals. Holiday music is often a reliable seller for catalog pop favorites like Backstreet, and the quintet has a streak to protect here: Each of their 10 Billboard 200-charting albums to date has made the top 10.