Taylor’s Version
One of the most popular albums in the United States, Taylor Swift’s 1989, is about to lose significant market share to a newer version, Swift’s re-recorded 1989 (Taylor’s Version).
It’s happened three times before. 1989 (Taylor’s Version), a re-recorded and expanded version of the nine-times platinum 2014 album, with five previously unreleased tracks, follows the insanely successful formula of the three preceding albums: Fearless, Red and Speak Now. If 1989 (Taylor’s Version) enjoys the same trajectory as its predecessors, the Big Machine-era version of 1989 will lose a majority of its weekly consumption and forever get crowded out by the more popular, Swift-endorsed re-recordings.
To understand what could happen to 1989, consider its predecessor, Red. Average weekly consumption of Red — measured in equivalent album units, which combines physical and digital album sales, track sales and streams — dropped 40% in the 12 weeks following the release of Red (Taylor’s Version), according to Billboard’s analysis of Luminate data for the United States. The original version of Speak Now took an even bigger hit, losing 59% of its average weekly consumption in the 12 weeks after the re-recordings were released. Given those two trajectories, the original version of 1989 could very well lose half its average weekly consumption.
Consumption of the original 1989, which includes Hot 100 chart-toppers “Shake It Off” and “Bad Blood,” has soared this year as Swift reached a Michael Jackson-level of media coverage. As Swift Mania heated up, thanks to her record-setting Eras Tour and steady output of new and rerecorded material, 1989’s average weekly album equivalent units (AEUs) climbed from 16,000 in January to 29,000 in May to 39,000 in August, peaking at 46,000 in the week ended Aug. 17. On the latest Billboard 200 albums chart, the original 1989 ranked No. 20 — one spot behind Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) and two spots ahead of Reputation, Swift’s final album for Big Machine.
That has been great news for Shamrock Holdings, which acquired Swift’s Big Machine master recordings in 2020 for a reported $300 million. In the year before Shamrock Holdings acquired Swift’s catalog, 1989 averaged about 10,000 AEUs per week — 70% below the current level. While Swift’s previous three albums of re-recordings ate into the Big Machine originals, 1989 was spared and got to benefit from Swift’s success — that is, until she got around to releasing her Taylor’s Version.
The original version of 1989 — Swift’s best-selling album to date — has more to lose than its predecessors: 1989 has averaged 33,000 equivalent album units over the previous 12 weeks, nearly 1.8 times more consumption than the 19,000 AEUs Speak Now averaged in the 12 weeks before Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) was released. The original versions of Fearless and Red had even less consumption in the 12 weeks before Swift’s re-recordings came out: 7,000 AEUs for Fearless and 9,000 AEUs for Red.
If 1989’s weekly AEUs drop by 50%, Billboard estimates the gross sales from purchases and streams will drop by nearly $120,000 per week — equal to more than $6 million per year. That’s gross sales, not wholesale. Shamrock pockets less than wholesale after paying royalties, distribution and manufacturing.
And if 1989 (Taylor’s Version) performs like the other three albums of re-recordings, it will far outperform Swift’s Big Machine originals. Through the first 41 weeks of 2023, the re-recordings of Fearless and Red have respectively averaged 4.8 times and 4.1 times the weekly consumption of the original albums. Speak Now (Taylor’s Version), which has just 14 weeks of sales history since its July release, currently has 5.3 times the average weekly consumption of the original.
The original version of Reputation also has a lot to lose. In the past 12 weeks, Reputation has averaged 27,000 AEUs per week. And just as 1989 consumption skyrocketed this year, Reputation’s weekly AEUs have more than doubled since January. Shamrock Holdings will enjoy those spoils, too — that is, until Reputation (Taylor’s Version) inevitably arrives.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 29), the two best-performing artists of 2023 battle again for the top spot, while new sets from a late rapper and a hip-hop star recovering from a near-death experience could make big bows.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): Taylor Swift is in the midst of a Billboard 200 week for the history books. Not only does her Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) debut at No. 1 with a 2023-best 716,000 units – the highest first-week number since her own Midnights last November – but it’s one of four Swift albums in the chart’s top 10 this week, along with Midnights (No. 5), Lover (No. 7) and Folklore (No. 10). The last living artist who had that many albums in the top 10 at the same time was Herb Alpert, way back in 1966.
Now, Swift will try to do something she’s yet to do with one of her Taylor’s Version re-recordings: hold at No. 1 for a second straight week. Though both her Fearless and Red redos debuted atop the chart with massive first-week numbers, both were deposed in the next frame: Fearless by YSL’s label showcase Slime Language 2 and Red by Adele’s much-anticipated 30. (Fearless did return for a second week on top months later, following its release on vinyl and signed CD.)
Swift’s primary competition will be – of course – Morgan Wallen, still at No. 2 with his 15-week chart-topper One Thing at a Time. The album continues to post weekly units in the six digits, and will likely have the streaming advantage over Swift with its 36 tracks (including the long-reigning Streaming Songs No. 1, “Last Night.”), as Swift’s massive first-week sales numbers take the usual second-week drop. However, Swift is following her biggest Taylor’s Version debut yet, and a second week even 15% as strong as her first week would still have been enough to get past Wallen’s most recent One Thing total.
IN THE MIX
King Von, Grandson (Only the Family/Empire): Chicago rapper King Von only released one album during his lifetime, 2020’s No. 5-peaking Welcome to O’Block, but he was well on his way to hip-hop stardom when he was shot to death that November. He’s already released one posthumous album with 2022’s No. 2-debuting What It Means to Be King, and he may hit the top 10 a third time with last Friday’s (July 14) Grandson, featuring guest appearances from hitmakers like Polo G, Lil Durk and Moneybagg Yo.
Lil Tjay, 222 (Columbia): New York rapper Lil Tjay’s promising career was derailed in June 2022 when he was shot multiple times during an attempted robbery. He survived the shooting, and on Friday released his first album since getting out of the hospital, 222. The album includes features from Summer Walker, The Kid LAROI, YoungBoy Never Broke Again and more, plus the first-person narrative “June 22,” named after the day of his ‘22 shooting.
Lauren Spencer-Smith, Mirror (Republic): The early-2022 viral breakout of teenage singer-songwriter (and former American Idol contestant) Lauren Spencer-Smith‘s heartbreak ballad “Fingers Crossed” earned her Olivia Rodrigo comparisons, and a deal with Republic Records. Subsequent singles haven’t fared as well, but Smith hopes to make good on that early promise with debut album Mirror – which she released on Friday as a “Fan Pack” (with vinyl and a shirt), as a boxed set (CD and shirt) and as a signed CD.
While her Eras Tour continues to boost her catalog to unprecedented heights, while her 2022 blockbuster Midnights still has hits in the Hot 100’s top 20, and while one of her older deep cuts has already been resurrected into a top 10 smash, Taylor Swift now adds to her 2023 dominance with the release of Speak Now (Taylor’s Version), third of her full-album re-recordings.
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The set debuts with 716,000 equivalent album units this week (chart dated July 22), over 500,000 of which come in sales — both the highest numbers for any album since her own Midnights bow last November — while debuting all 22 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100, led by the No. 5 entrance for new cut “I Can See You (Taylor’s Version).” It’s also the best first-week performance from any of the three Taylor’s Versions released thusfar, easily passing the 605,000 posted by Red (Taylor’s Version) in 2021.
Why did this first week mark her best Taylor’s Version showing yet? And how much bigger could those numbers still grow for future re-recordings? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
1. The 716,000 units for Speak Now is easily the most for any Taylor’s Version so far, breezing past the 605,000 that Red (TV) debuted with in 2021. What do you think is the biggest reason for the debut-week increase for Speak Now?
Katie Atkinson: With more than a half-million of those units in traditional album sales, I think the biggest reason is collecting. No Swiftie collection will be complete with the (Taylor’s Version) projects, so it’s a must-own record. There are also multiple versions of the physical album you could buy, so if you’re a completist Swiftie, you’ve gotta have ’em all. These re-recordings are basically the equivalent of legacy box sets but delivered during the prime of an artist’s career, which makes them obvious collector’s items.
Hannah Dailey: It may be partly due to the momentum she’s created with the past two Taylor’s Versions, but I think the main reason for Speak Now’s success is definitely the ongoing cultural phenomenon that is the Eras Tour. This is the first re-release to drop since she kicked off the tour, which is built almost completely around the nostalgia factor of her old albums. With pictures and videos from the show populating everyone’s timelines just about every weekend, people are more incentivized than ever to indulge in “Old Taylor” for as long as it’s cool again to do so.
Kyle Denis: As impossible as it may seem, Taylor’s star power has only gotten stronger. Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) is Swift’s first re-recording release since she dropped off Midnights last year — and that album earned her the biggest first-week units total of her career. Couple that with Speak Now (TV) being the first full-length release from Swift since the start of her record-breaking Eras Tour, and you have an already massive fanbase that’s only become even bigger and more galvanized to consume all things Swift. It also helps that Swift’s most dedicated fans often have a particularly strong connection to Speak Now. While the self-penned record didn’t house a litany of zeitgeist-conquering hits like Fearless or 1989, a lot of fan-favorites that weren’t smash hits (“Dear John,” “Enchanted,” “Better Than Revenge,” “Long Live,” etc.) are housed on the album.
Jason Lipshutz: Taylor Swift’s enormity. Obviously Swift was a superstar back when she released the first two Taylor’s Version albums in 2021, but somehow, she’s grown in stature exponentially even from that point, highlighted by the gargantuan success of Midnights (her biggest debut week ever!), “Anti-Hero” (her longest-leading Hot 100 No. 1 hit ever!), and the Eras tour (her biggest tour ever!). Make no mistake, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) was always going to enjoy a comfortable No. 1 bow – but the release of its timing, when Swift’s commercial streak has gone from red-hot to scorching, can help explain its final units total.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s just Taylor Swift, rolling along her pop stardom as it absorbs everything in its path and keeps growing bigger and bigger — like Katamari Damacy. Speak Now is a fan-beloved album, but was not really the kind of commercial juggernaut that Fearless or Red were, and the re-recording has no songs nearly as anticipated as Red‘s “All Too Well (10-Minute Version).” It’s simply the biggest because Taylor Swift is at her biggest right now.
2. Speak Now is just one of four Swift albums in the Billboard 200‘s top 10 this week (making her the first living artist since Herb Alpert in 1966 to have four simultaneous top 10 albums), while she also has three top 10 hits on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, each from a different album (making her the first living artist since The Beatles in 1964 to have three simultaneous top 10 hits from different albums). Which of the two accomplishments is more impressive to you?
Katie Atkinson: It’s hard to say, but I’ll give the edge to the Hot 100 stat. We’ve seen a lot of artists dominate the Hot 100 top 10 – as Swift herself did after the release of Midnights when she became the first artist to hold all top 10 spots on the chart – but those weeks include songs almost exclusively from the same album. Having three different songs in the upper region from three different albums is a wild level of domination that only Swift (and The Beatles!) could pull off.
Hannah Dailey: It’s hard to say, as I think the two achievements are pretty reflective of each other. But considering how much pride Swift takes in her ability to weave her songwriting into palatable, full bodies of work, I would say the Billboard 200 feat is most impressive.
Kyle Denis: I think the latter is more impressive. Placing four albums in the top 10 is certainly a feat, but with an event like the Super Bowl, some discounts, and a relatively quiet chart week, it’s certainly achievable for quite a few artists, should they put in that effort. To have singles from three different albums simultaneously place in the top 10, however, is a lot more difficult, I think. Especially when none of the songs appear on albums from other artists.
Swift and her team were able to time the radio ascent of “Karma” with the explosive rise of “Cruel Summer,” while also securing enough fan attention to care about one of six new “From the Vault” tracks on Speak Now (TV). To toe that line of a having a high volume of output without being so overexposed that people start to shy away from you… that’s not easy at all. It’s incredibly impressive, and a testament to how Swift’s stardom is borderline impenetrable.
Jason Lipshutz: Swift having a bunch of albums in the upper reaches of the Billboard 200 is impressive but not uncommon. Three songs, from three different albums, simultaneously in the top 10 of the Hot 100, though? That’s the sort of mind-boggling chart feat that Swift, and only Swift, is routinely adding to her resumé. Really, that accomplishment speaks to the astonishing rise of “Cruel Summer” four years after its release: having a single from last year’s Midnights and the newly released Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) in the top 10 makes some sense, but a Lover track organically rising to new heights at the same time simply demonstrates Swift’s current ubiquity, unprecedented in the modern music era.
Andrew Unterberger: I mean, anytime you can be the first artist since The Beatles to do something… Still, I might find the albums stat slightly more impressive, just because it shows how widespread the Swift bump of recent months has been, without been mostly contained to one or even a couple releases. And look outside of the top 10: She’s got another two in the top 20, and another two in the top 25. That kind of cross-catalog dominance when it comes to her overall legacy… that’s pretty Beatlesque.
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3. The current top 10 hit from Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) is “I Can See You,” which debuts at No. 5 on the Hot 100 — helped by prime New Music Friday placement and an internet-friendly music video starring a number of Speak Now-era Taylorverse fixtures. Does it feel like a lasting top 10 hit to you, or will it be more of a one-week wonder?
Katie Atkinson: I *really* like this song and would like it to have more of a moment, but if the shock factor of Swift casting one of her era-specific ex-boyfriends in the music video and the release-week timing couldn’t boost it higher than No. 5, I don’t see it climbing there another way. It seems like Team Swift would be smart to put their full juice behind the resurgent “Cruel Summer” instead, including the release of a long-awaited music video perfectly timed to land the top spot on the chart.
Hannah Dailey: I could see it sticking around a little longer, though I think it’s more likely it’ll be a slightly more successful “I Bet You Think About Me” – the parallel Vault single from Red (Taylor’s Version), which made it to No. 22 before falling off the Hot 100 after two weeks.
Kyle Denis: Definitely a one-week wonder. All eyes are on “Cruel Summer” right now, as the fan-favorite collects the commercial success it’s deserved for four years now. Between “Cruel Summer” and the three Midnights singles currently in rotation on radio, it would probably be overkill to promote a fifth Swift single — and radio is what “I Can See You” will need the most to remain a lasting top 10 hit. Now, should “I Can See You” naturally gain traction outside of its newness and star-studded music video, then that would be a different story.
Jason Lipshutz: I love “I Can See You” as both an ultra-catchy flirtation and redirection of Swift’s sound, pushing her Speak Now songwriting towards a more sexually suggestive and downright funky sound. In a vacuum, the song sounds like a no-brainer new hit from Swift… but it’s going to have to compete for attention with “Karma” and “Cruel Summer,” and while I think the cultural appetite for her music is larger than it’s ever been, I’d have to imagine that those concurrent hits cannibalize each other’s streams and plays to some degree. We’ll see in the weeks ahead just how many hits from different eras Swift can juggle at one time, though!
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, just too crowded for “I Can See You” right now unfortunately — if it’s going to grow into a long-lasting hit, that’s probably going to have to be because it caught on as a TikTok moment or otherwise made some kind of specific cultural imprint. A top five debut is still pretty impressive for it though, considering the level of competition right now (including her own simultaneous hits).
4. The numbers keep getting bigger with these re-recordings — do you think we’ll eventually see a million-unit first week for one of the Taylor’s Versions?
Katie Atkinson: I wouldn’t put anything past Taylor Swift – and I’m especially not counting out this possibility considering 1989 (Taylor’s Version) is still on the horizon and was commercially and critically beloved upon its original release. Imagine the high-quality 1989 “From the Vault” tracks we’re going to get from that era if “New Romantics” was just a bonus track back in 2014.
Hannah Dailey: I think it’s very possible. My money is on 1989 (Taylor’s Version), especially because that record had such major first-week sales the first time around.
Kyle Denis: I’m expecting 1989 (Taylor’s Version) to get close to a million units first week, especially if she has some surprises in store like a new version of the “Bad Blood” music video or some big-name collaborations on the Vault tracks. We already got “Wildest Dreams (TV)” in 2021, so the 1989 (TV) campaign has been subtly chugging along for months now. There’s also the fact that 1989 is her most-successful album that needs to be re-recorded, so the hype will certainly be there. I expect Reputation (TV) to perform similarly to Red (TV) and Speak Now (TV). The re-recording of her eponymous debut, however, will probably pull in the smallest first-week units total of the Taylor’s Versions series.
Jason Lipshutz: Maybe – which I don’t think I would have said a week ago, since scoring a million-unit first week is such a tall order! But if Swift’s reign refuses to let up, the timing is right, and the hits-packed 1989 (Taylor’s Version) includes some undeniable fan goodies conjuring the frenzy of “All Too Well (Taylor’s Version),” then anything is possible. The success of these re-recorded albums has already surpassed the loftiest expectations, so I can’t count out something like a seven-figure debut for one of them.
Andrew Unterberger: The fact that it’s even a discussion is pretty crazy — remember how impressive it seemed when Fearless (Taylor’s Version) did nearly 300k in its first week, and most of us assumed that would be the biggest first-week number in the series, with future projects meeting with diminishing returns thanks to fading novelty. Clearly that hasn’t been the case, and when 1989 (Taylor’s Version) debuts, the million-unit mark will be within the realm of possibility — though if I had to put money on it, I’d still probably take the under.
5. Fill in the brackets: “Taylor Swift is currently the biggest pop star I can remember since [artist] in [year].“
Katie Atkinson: Justin Timberlake in 2006, so we’re talking about the release of FutureSex/LoveSounds followed by “Dick in a Box” on Saturday Night Live. But really, there’s no perfect comparison because no other pop superstar has been this strategic of a businessperson and made it part of their public brand. So she’s riding a high like late-2006 JT, but she’s transcended to a whole other plane at this point.
Hannah Dailey: I’m 23. Taylor is the biggest pop star I can remember, period. Even so, I don’t know if she even warrants comparison anymore. It would’ve been easier to finish the sentence ten years ago, but at this point, she’s broken enough of her own records to become her own benchmark. I think she stands alone.
Kyle Denis: Taylor Swift is currently the biggest pop star I can remember since Britney Spears in 1998-2003.
Jason Lipshutz: Since Adele in 2011, when her album 21 hovered around the top of the Billboard 200 for months on end (eventually collecting a whopping 24 weeks at No. 1) and sending three singles to the top of the Hot 100. Adele was just absolutely dominant that year – and by most metrics, Swift is currently experiencing an even bigger 2023.
Andrew Unterberger: Since Lady Gaga in 2009-2010? Drake’s chart dominance in 2018 was comparable, and Adele’s sales figures in 2011 (and 2015) may never be matched again. But in terms of all-encompassing, any-metric-you-use, tangible-or-intangible, center-of-the-conversation STARDOM? If not Gaga, then you really might need to go back to Britney and Eminem at the beginning of the century.
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week (for the upcoming charts dated July 22), Taylor Swift once again leaves the rest of the pop world in the dust with perhaps her best-performing Taylor’s Version full-album recreation yet.
Taylor Swift, Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) (Republic): When it was released in 2010 as her third album, Speak Now became Taylor Swift’s first set to sell over a million copies in its first week. Her Taylor’s Version re-recording of the fan-favorite album might not post a seven-digit debut, but it’s already come closer than any other album in 2023. Billboard reported on Tuesday (July 11) that this Speak Now had passed 575,000 equivalent album units in just its first four days — already blowing past the 501,000 moved by previous mark-setter, Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time, in its first frame.
Those would be incredible numbers for any new release in 2023, let alone one where 16 of the 22 tracks included are near-soundalike re-dos of 13-year-old songs. Making the 400,000 in direct sales that the album has already accrued even more impressive is that the album is only available in a handful of physical editions – three vinyl variants (including an exclusive color for Target), a CD, a cassette, and a digital release – compared to many 2020s best-sellers (including Swift’s own 2022 blockbuster Midnights), which are released in dozens of physical editions to maximize fan purchases.
Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) has already put Swift’s peers in its rearview, but how will it compare to her own recently set standards? It’s unlikely to get close to the first-week numbers of Midnights, which scored an unthinkable-for-2022 1.578 million units. But it has a very good chance of passing 2021’s Red (Taylor’s Version), which debuted with 605,000 units, to become the biggest first week for any of her three re-recordings to date.
To pass Red (Taylor’s Version) would also be pretty staggering for this Speak Now, considering it has fewer tracks (22 to Red (TV)’s 30) and lacks a song driving as much pre-release excitement as that set’s “All Too Well (10-Minute Version),” which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 the same week the new Red topped the Billboard 200. (“I Can See You,” one of the set’s six first-time recordings, did receive a music video co-starring Speak Now-era Taylorverse fixtures Joey King, Taylor Lautner and Presley Cash, and looks to be due for a major Hot 100 debut next week.)
In the Mix
Lucki, S*x M*ney Dr*gs (EMPIRE): One of the most acclaimed rappers from the current rising wave of Chicago MCs, Lucki reached a career-best No. 12 on the Billboard 200 with 2012’s Flawless Like Me set. He may do even better with this month’s S*x M*ney Dr*gs mixtape, which only features one guest (fellow cult favorite Veeze) on its 15 tracks, but is already posting career-best streaming numbers that most rappers would be, well, lucky to have in 2023.
Dominic Fike, Sunburn (Columbia): If you listened to Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist last week, you might have noticed that the lead track was not from Taylor Swift’s latest, but rather from the long-awaited second album for singer-songwriter Dominic Fike. Columbia executives still have big hopes for Fike, who greatly increased his profile last year with a big role on HBO phenomenon Euphoria, and he may have something of a breakout hit with the album’s “Mona Lisa” — written for and briefly included on the deluxe edition of Metro Boomin’s Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse soundtrack — which climbs to No. 36 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart this week.
Lana Del Rey, Did You Know That There’s a Tunnel Under Ocean Blvd (Polydor/Interscope): Lana Del Rey’s ninth album debuted at No. 3 on the Billboard 200 in April — and while it’s remained on the chart for the past 15 weeks, it’s dropped all the way to No. 184. It should rebound significantly next week, though. thanks to a recent vinyl reissue with a cover featuring a partially nude photo of Del Rey. (She had previously considered the image for the album’s original cover, before deciding to “let the songs do the talking for now.”)
When Taylor Swift announced the arrival of Speak Now (Taylor’s Version) back in May, a lot of fans and journalists wondered if she might change the lyrics on one of the album’s most controversial songs, “Better Than Revenge.” Now that the re-recording has arrived, what’s the verdict? She lit a match to the infamous lyrics. […]
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