Subscriptions
Universal Music Group and Spotify are in “advanced talks” over a high-priced, superfan tier of the streaming service that offers a better user experience than the standard subscription plan. The status of the negotiations were revealed by UMG CFO Boyd Muir on Tuesday during the company’s Capital Markets Day presentation in London. That a Spotify […]
TikTok creates viral hits. YouTube is unparalleled in its ubiquity. But music subscription services pay the bills.
More than three out of every five dollars earned by U.S. record labels in the first half of 2024 — 60.2% to be exact — came from premium subscription services, according to the RIAA’s mid-year report. That marks the first time subscriptions exceeded a 60% share of total revenue, topping the 59.5% share in the first half of 2023 and the 59.3% mark for full-year 2023.
Ad-supported on-demand streaming, on the other hand, has lost momentum, growing just 2.5%, half the rate of paid subscriptions. The slowdown has been dramatic: Three years ago, advertising revenue rebounded from a pandemic slowdown by surging 54.1% in the first half of 2021 and another 17.7% in the first half of 2022. Its share of total industry revenue — 10.4% — has slipped, too, from 10.5.%, 11.3% and 10.5% in the three preceding first-half periods.
Other ad-supported segments also lag paid subscriptions’ growth rate. SoundExchange distributions, which include some ad-supported streaming as well as royalties paid by satellite radio subscribers, rose just 3.8% to $517 million. Other ad-supported streaming, which covers services not operating under statutory licenses, fell 1.5% to $155 million.
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The situation around advertising is worse than the numbers might suggest. Ad-supported, on-demand streaming isn’t confined to services such as Spotify’s free tier and YouTube. A new generation of platforms, such as TikTok and Instagram, are grouped into this category, too. Without these emerging platforms, ad-supported streaming would look even worse off.
For an industry that must constantly seek growth, advertising is too small to play the role. In the most recent quarter, Spotify got 12% of its revenue from advertising — both music and podcasts — compared to 88% from subscriptions. Even if advertising becomes a bigger part of the business, CEO Daniel Ek said during the company’s April 23 earnings call, it won’t be a major factor in helping the company reach 20% revenue growth. “Anything we can do on our subscription side will obviously materially outperform any improvement on the ad side,” said Ek.
Free music has played an important role in building today’s music ecosystem, though. In 2009, author Chris Anderson followed The Long Tail with a lesser-known book titled Free that promoted the notion that not charging for digital goods can be a wise strategy. While The Long Tail was a smash success, Free never rose to the same level of renown. But Anderson’s idea proved to have merit. The same year Free was published, Spotify launched a “freemium” music streaming service in the United Kingdom—the world’s third-largest music market—that utilized a free, ad-supported tier intended to drive listeners to the paid version. Ad-supported royalties were miniscule, but it worked as planned. Free listening turned out to be an effective tool to attract customers that would, at some point in the future, become some of Spotify’s 246 million subscribers.
The growth potential for the subscription business lays outside the U.S. Globally, subscription streaming accounted for 48.9% of recorded music revenue in 2023, according to the IFPI, more than 11 percentage points below the share in the U.S. (The RIAA reports retail value in the U.S. while the IFPI reports wholesale values for each market.) Worldwide subscription penetration is only 15%, Warner Music Group CFO Bryan Castellani noted during an Aug. 7 earnings call, “and there’s a lot of headroom to go from 800 million subscriptions today to well over a billion over the next five years.”
The future may be a combination of free and subscription. In May, Sony Music Entertainment CEO Rob Stringer called for streaming platforms to charge users of ad-supported tiers a “modest fee” to make free streaming “more than a marketing funnel” to attract customers. Stringer also called on short-form video platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts to step up their payments to rights owners. “More and more, these are primary consumption sources, and they need to be valued accordingly,” he said.
With subscriptions now exceeding 60% of U.S. revenue and advertising losing share, free platforms will likely come under more pressure to deliver more royalties. Until that happens, though, expect the industry to increasingly put its hopes for revenue growth in subscriptions.
This week, Sony Music Entertainment CEO Rob Stringer called on streaming companies to charge a “modest fee” for ad-supported streaming. “This would help develop this segment of the streaming business to be more than just a marketing funnel for paid subscription and still be a tremendous value for users,” he said during parent company Sony’s business segment presentations on Thursday.
Stringer’s comments didn’t come as a surprise. In March, after the RIAA released a report on the U.S. recorded music market in 2023, Billboard asked if record labels had become too reliant on subscription services for their revenues. With consumers proving willing to pay for rising prices, free streaming options aren’t producing the royalties to match their popularity.
Now, there’s evidence that subscriptions could become even more important for record labels, music publishers and creators.
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This month, Spotify levied additional price increases in the United Kingdom and Australia on top of a global price hike in July 2023. An individual plan now costs 11.99 pounds in the United Kingdom, up from 10.99 pounds, while a family plan was raised to 19.99 pounds from 17.99 pounds. Spotify has not announced a second wave of price increases in the United States and other major markets, but it’s reasonable to assume the United Kingdom and Australia won’t be alone.
The major labels have welcomed these price hikes as streaming’s importance to their bottom lines continues to increase. In the United States, subscriptions accounted for 59.3% of total recorded music revenues in 2023, up from 57.8% in 2022. Globally, subscriptions accounted for 48.9% of recorded music revenue in 2023, according to the IFPI, up from 48.3% in 2022.
Spotify and other platforms could soon offer a high-priced tier for superfans that would make subscriptions an even more valuable component of the music industry. Spotify first mentioned the possibility of “superfan clubs” in an online post in January. The next month, CEO Daniel Ek listed “superfan things” — as well as audiobook sales — among the products Spotify could offer if Apple did not take a 30% cut of in-app purchases.
In April, Michael Nash, Universal Music Group (UMG) executive vp of digital strategy, said during the company’s earnings call that internal research suggests 10% to 20% of subscribers would be willing to pay extra for a “super premium” tier. Nash wasn’t just thinking out loud: Given how carefully public companies choose their words, it stands to reason that he and other UMG executives are encouraging streaming companies to explore ways to offer an elevated service at a higher price.
Recent subscription price increases could be just the beginning of the sort of regular, ongoing price appreciation already seen in the video streaming market. Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl said on the company’s May 9 earnings that call that it “will continue to advocate for further increases” and “ensure that the value that music provides to these platforms is properly recognized.” Reservoir Media CEO Golnar Khosrowshahi said during the company’s earnings call on Thursday (May 30) the company expects “a regular cadence of price increases” from streaming services.
Subscription price appreciation has put free streaming in a poor light, however. As streaming services have been raising prices, a weak advertising market has made free streaming even less valuable. Free streaming isn’t without value — it provides an opportunity to convert listeners into paid subscribers, just as marketing campaigns do. But labels clearly aren’t content with free streaming acting as a means to attract subscribers.
Goldman Sachs actually beat Stringer to the idea of charging for ad-supported music streaming. In the latest Music in the Air report released in early May, its analysts recommended an “advertising light tier for a small charge” as one way of evolving the ad-supported marketplace and floated the idea of using “content or feature restrictions” to make free, ad-supported streaming tiers a less attractive option, thereby pushing free users to a paid tier.
Concerns about free streaming carry over to short-form video platforms such as TikTok. While TikTok is a powerful promotional vehicle, the royalties it generates for rights holders and creators isn’t commensurate with the time people spend on the app. As Stringer said this week, short-form video platforms “are primary consumption sources and they need to be valued accordingly.”
Free options have their place in the marketplace. After all, not everybody is willing or able to pay for a premium service. Mass market products like broadcast radio exist because they are free to the end user. But free music could come under pressure in the coming years. And between additional price increases and possible superfan tiers, combined with overall weakness in ad-supported streaming, subscriptions are poised to command an even larger share of the industry.
SiriusXM is facing a lawsuit from New York’s attorney general over allegations that the satellite radio and streaming service has made it “extremely difficult” for listeners to cancel their subscriptions.
In a complaint filed Wednesday (Dec. 20) in Manhattan court, Attorney General Letitia James’ office accused SiriusXM of subjecting canceling customers to “a lengthy and burdensome endurance contest,” which allegedly requires phone conversations with a live agent and extended time spent on hold.
“Sirius deliberately wastes its subscribers’ time even though it has the ability to process cancellations with the click of a button,” attorneys from James’ office wrote in the lawsuit. “The only reason Sirius requires cancelling subscribers to interact with a live agent at all is to maximize its opportunity to retain them as subscribers.”
In a statement announcing the lawsuit, James said it followed an investigation that showed SiriusXM was “trapping consumers” with its cancellation process, including by training its employees “not take ‘no’ for an answer.”
“Having to endure a lengthy and frustrating process to cancel a subscription is a stressful burden no one looks forward to, and when companies make it hard to cancel subscriptions, it’s illegal,” James said. “Consumers should be able to cancel a subscription they no longer use or need without any issues, and companies have a legal duty to make their cancellation process easy.”
Following the filing of the lawsuit, a spokeswoman for SiriusXM said the company would “vigorously defend against these baseless allegations,” saying that they “grossly mischaracterize” its practices.
“It’s telling that the New York Attorney General issued a press release before providing SiriusXM with a copy of the complaint,” the company statement said. “Like a number of consumer businesses, we offer a variety of options for customers to sign up for or cancel their SiriusXM subscription.”
According to the new lawsuit, SiriusXM automatically renews subscriptions at the end of a term unless a user calls on the phone to cancel. The lawsuit claims that users are sometimes forced to wait as long as 25 minutes just to connect with an agent, who then subject them to a “six-part script” in which they are trained to repeatedly refuse to actually terminate the subscription.
“Sirius requires its live agents to present a series of renewal offers to retain the consumer as a subscriber,” the AG’s office wrote in the lawsuit. “But when a consumer declines an offer, or refuses to hear further offers, Sirius instructs its agents not to take ‘no’ for an answer.”
By doing so, SiriusSM forces subscribers to “devote inordinate amounts of time, patience, and stamina trying to cancel a subscription they no longer wish to pay for,” the lawsuit says, even though they have a “legal and contractual right to cancel anytime using a process that is simple and efficient.”
TikTok is testing an ad-free subscription plan, the company has confirmed to Billboard. The new tier, first reported by Android Authority after the site uncovered code in the latest version of the TikTok app, is being tried out in a single non-English-speaking market outside the United States, according to the company. TikTok shot down Android […]
How long will consumers keep spending $200 on concert tickets, $15 on a cocktail at the venue (and God knows what for parking) and $11 on a music subscription? Judging from recent comments by some executives, people may be dealing with inflation, but they will still pay to be entertained.
“After another quarter of record-breaking [gross order value], it is clear consumers continue to prioritize live events experiences,” said Vivid Seats CEO Stan Chia on the company’s Aug. 8 earnings call.
Investors, though, seem worried about the potential effects of millions of American student loan borrowers resuming payments this fall after years of pandemic-era forbearance. In over three years, the forbearance on student loan debt totaled about $185 billion that was spent elsewhere or saved, according to an estimate by Goldman Sachs. Asked by an analyst about the possibility that loan payments will put a crimp in concert spending, Live Nation president/CFO Joe Berchtold said the company doesn’t expect a problem. Live Nation’s analysis is that the positive impact of fans returning to live events after the pandemic “is about 10 times the impact of any potential headwind coming from the student loan payments needing to get made,” Berchtold said during the company’s July 27 earnings call.
Chia echoed Bechtold’s optimism. Vivid Seats sees “resiliency” in consumer demand and strong trends for live music, he said. To that point, Vivid Seats increased its guidance for 2023 for the second time this year and now expects marketplace gross order value (GOV) of $3.4 billion to $3.6 billion and revenues from $630 million to $650 million.
What’s more, Live Nation expects people won’t be shy about opening their wallets. Full-year concerts margin will increase in 2023 thanks to an “increase [in] the per-fan profitability” from on-site spending — things such as food and drink — and “containing to focus on the costs,” said Berchtold. Price-conscious consumers “are continuing to spend strongly,” he said, and Live Nation is seeing an increase in both the number of fans per show and per-head spending.
Eventbrite, which increased the mid-point of its 2023 revenue guidance from $323.5 million to $325 million, is finding people are still eager to do things in the real world after COVID-19 lockdowns moved much of their lives online. In an Aug. 3 earnings call, CEO Julia Hartz said the company’s improved outlook comes from “strong demand signals across the board, particularly for categories like music, film and media, food and drink, nightlife, performing and visual arts.” What’s more, Eventbrite is seeing “people really want to get out and connect with one another,” she added: “Singles and dating events are 50% up year over year. Independent singer-songwriter-hosted events were up 60%.”
German promoter CTS Eventim expects moderate growth in internet ticket volume and live entertainment revenue this year. And while CTS believes its future is clouded by unquantifiable effects of geopolitical security uncertainty, persistently high inflation and a potential economic stagnation or recession, the company said in its mid-year earnings report that “earnings figures should improve substantially compared with 2022.”
Consumer spending on music subscriptions also appears to be strong going into 2024. Spotify, which raised the price of its individual plan by $1 per month in the United States in July, expects to have 224 million subscribers by the end of September, after adding 15 million in the first half of the year. Its third quarter revenue guidance of 3.3 billion euros ($3.56 billion) would mark a nearly 9% gain from the prior-year period, although analysts surveyed by StreetAccount expected guidance of 3.4 billion euros ($3.67 billion). And its gross margin guidance of 26% would be a marked improvement from 25.2% and 24.1% in the first and second quarters, respectively.
While consumer spending continues unabated, brands’ spending on advertising — an important revenue stream for labels and publishers — is a different story. A soft advertising market has hurt everything from radio revenues to online advertising (though Live Nation’s advertising and sponsorship revenue has rebounded nicely from the pandemic and has seen no slowdown, according to Berchtold). iHeartMedia expects third-quarter revenue, excluding the impact of political advertising, to decline in the low-single digits, as July revenue was down about 5% year over year.
But radio advertising could rebound in the second half of the year, according to B Riley Securities analyst Daniel Day, and Cumulus Media’s better-than-expected second quarter earnings results were a positive sign. While iHeartMedia investors weren’t enthusiastic about the company’s second quarter earnings — its share price fell 17% the day earnings were announced and dropped another 6% through Thursday — the company remains optimistic. “While there was some softness in our larger advertisers, in Q2 our smaller advertisers remained resilient,” said iHeartMedia CEO Bob Pittman during the Aug. 8 earnings call. “And we saw a gradual improvement from our larger advertisers as well, which leads us to believe that we’ll continue to see improvements in the business through the remainder of the year.”
YouTube raised prices on the individual plans for both YouTube Premium and YouTube Music for new and current U.S.-based subscribers on Thursday (July 20), marking the first time YouTube Premium has increased prices for individual plans in the United States since launching in 2018. Subscribers to YouTube Premium will pay $13.99 per month, up from […]
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If the 2010s were the decade that established streaming as the de facto way that most people enjoy music, the 2020s will be the decade the platforms’ royalty rates took a leap forward.
For much of streaming services’ existence, the industry has tried to gently balance the need to foster growth with the need to generate something close to subsistence-level income for creators and rights holders. If rights holders squeeze too tight, they could strangle the life out of the companies they depend on to carry them in a post-CD, post-download world. Too loose a grasp on streaming platforms would mean the spoils of technological disruption would remain with tech companies.
The process requires patience. With social media apps, licensing deals start small, with lump-sum payments rather than percent-of-revenue royalties while the fledgling platform builds a sustainable business model. Because licensing deals are renewed every three years, rights owners endure long waits to secure better terms that will result in more royalties. It will take a few cycles for a platform to generate meaningful royalty income for its label partners.
This year, there were numerous developments that point to better royalty rates in 2023 and beyond. They have different degrees of certainty, however. Higher subscription prices are sure to move the needle and result in higher payouts to artists and labels. Whether artists and labels will finally get paid for terrestrial radio play in 2023 is less certain, although the mood in Washington D.C. seems favorable. And with the authors of Chokepoint Capitalism, Cory Doctorow and Rebecca Giblin, currently making the media rounds, and the Federal Trade Commission cracking down on companies that take advantage of gig workers, the plight of creators in today’s digital economy is getting mainstream attention (my colleague Rob Levine brought attention to tech companies’ value destruction in his book, Free Ride, a decade ago).
Congressional Bill to Get Artists & Labels Paid for Radio Airplay Clears Critical House Vote
12/09/2022
Music subscription price increases
Artists have wanted a raise from streaming services for years. Part of the problem is how royalties are calculated — a pool of money is split according to the number of times the tracks were played. That puts album-oriented artists at a mathematical disadvantage to mainstream artists in popular genres like pop and hip-hop. Another common complaint is that streaming services have barely raised their subscription prices for more than a decade. With prices flat, the best way to improve streaming royalties is to attract more subscribers. Keeping subscription fees relatively affordable, especially when Netflix and other video streaming services routinely hiked their prices, ensured customer acquisition would continue. Affordable family plans, which cover up to six people for 50% more than an individual plan, helped attract customers and reduced churn — but didn’t help artist payouts. Finally, this year Amazon, Deezer, YouTube Premium (which includes YouTube Music) and Apple Music announced broad price increases to individual and family plans. Spotify has hinted it will follow with price hikes of its own in 2023. The financial impact could be massive: A modest increase of $1 per month for individual plans and $2 per month for family plans in mature markets — less in developing markets with lower prices — would easily generate many hundreds of millions of incremental subscription royalties, which totaled $12.3 billion in 2021, according to the IFPI.
A TikTok subscription service
TikTok doesn’t pay much in royalties, but it plays an outsized role in cultural trends — the app has over 1 billion active users and is especially popular with Gen Z consumers. That has changed the balance of power in music streaming. “The major streaming platforms are reacting to culture now rather than driving it,” Tatiana Cirisano, music industry analyst and consultant for MIDiA Research, recently told Billboard. In that light, news that TikTok is working to expand its Resso subscription service (it’s available only in Indonesia, Brazil and India) is a big deal. Currently, TikTok creates impressions and demand for music that has downstream effects on other platforms — see a TikTok video, listen to the entire track at Spotify, YouTube Music or Apple Music. But if TikTok owned both the short-form video platform and the subscription platform, it could better convert that initial interest into downstream listening while eroding the influence of the Spotifys and Apple Musics of the world. More importantly, a TikTok subscription service would help change TikTok’s status as a royalty underperformer.
Subscription streaming rates
Publishers and songwriters will get a slight raise in subscription streaming royalty rates over the next five years due to a settlement reached in August by the National Music Publishers’ Association, the Nashville Songwriters Association International and the Digital Media Association. The headline royalty rate will go from 15.1% of revenue in 2023 to 15.35% in 2027. That’s not a huge gain, but it’s an improvement. The settlement could help in other ways, too. Streaming services were able to get favorable terms for bundles and free trials that allow them to get more subscribers into the ecosystem. That would help songwriters and publishers by increasing the number of subscribers — the major driver in streaming royalty growth — as they enjoy modest annual increases in royalty rates.
Inflation adjustments to noninteractive streaming rates
Each year, the rate paid by noninteractive streaming platforms in the U.S. is adjusted to account for inflation over the previous year. In 2023, artists and labels will get a raise due to inflation rates that reached a 40-year high in 2022. (The rates increased 7.1% for subscription plays and 9.1% for ad-supported plays.) In years past, noninteractive streaming services such as Pandora were a more significant part of artists’ and labels’ incomes. That gave extra weight to the decisions of the Copyright Royalty Board and changes in the per-play streaming rates. Now, on-demand services like Spotify and YouTube dominate the streaming landscape and noninteractive webcasting has diminished in value and relevance. Still, Pandora’s ad-supported listening hours fell only 5% year over year in the third quarter of 2022 — to 2.75 billion — and it paid out $921 million in royalties in the first nine months of the year. Above all, a raise is a raise.
Terrestrial radio royalties
Legislation that would pay artists and labels for airplay on U.S. terrestrial radio was passed by the House Judiciary Committee on Wednesday (Dec. 7). With only a month left in the current Congress, Rep. Jim Jordan, ranking member of the House Judiciary Committee, said he’s confident the bill could make it through the next Congress (that could be 2023 or 2024). While this isn’t the first legislation to address the lack of a performance right, the AMFA arrives at a time when lawmakers — in D.C. and elsewhere — have taken an interest in creators’ ability to make a living in the streaming age. Outgoing House Judiciary Committee chair Jerry Nadler has shown concern about a “race to the bottom” in streaming royalties, for example, and U.K. lawmakers examined the equitableness of streaming royalties paid to artists in that market. Passage of an AMFA-like law, or a settlement with radio broadcasters, would be a huge coup for artists and labels who get only promotion from radio airplay while radio stations are obligated to pay songwriters and publishers. In fact, U.S. radio royalties would be two — not one — new stacks of money. That’s because the lack of a performance right for broadcast radio in the U.S. means European countries withhold royalty payments from American artists for performances on their soil, SoundExchange CEO Michael Huppe explained in a recent Billboard op-ed.
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