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The Schulhof surname first became associated with the music business when former Sony America vice chairman Mickey Schulhof led the negotiations to acquire CBS Records in the late 1980s. But his son David staked out his own territory in 2006, when, backed by Trilantic Capital Partners, he used institutional money to buy music publishing assets from songwriters as a co-founder of Evergreen Copyrights — an early player in the song catalog gold rush that would extend into the 2020s. Schulhof and his partners later sold Evergreen to BMG for $80 million in 2010. Now, after spending about a dozen years as a publishing and business development executive for various film studios — as well as a two-year stint as a managing director of G2 Investment Group, a spinoff focusing on media assets for private equity firm Guggenheim Partners — the 53-year-old Georgetown University graduate is touting music industry stocks to retail investors through his latest undertaking, MUSQ Global Music Industry ETF.
ETFs, or exchange-traded funds, are essentially hybrids of mutual and index funds that enable investors to participate in the performance of publicly traded companies without buying individual stocks. ETFs tend to focus on a specific industry or investment theme. MUSQ (pronounced “music”) is an industry index fund that lets retail investors participate in the music industry’s growth through investments in 40 to 50 mainstream company stocks, including the three major-label groups, the major digital service providers (Spotify, Amazon, Apple and Alphabet), Live Nation, SiriusXM, LiveOne and Sonos. It also includes international music companies HYBE, Alex, CTS, Believe and HIM International Music.
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Schulhof, who designed the parameters of the index — which is a passive investment vehicle — and serves as its sponsor, launched MUSQ on July 7, 2023, with $2 million in seeding from Goldman Sachs. That investment enabled the creation of about 100,000 shares in the ETF. On that first day of trading, it closed at $24.95. Today, the fund has grown to about 900,000 shares and is backed by the stocks of music companies that carry a net asset value of about $22.8 million.
On Aug. 6, MUSQ closed at $22.17 a share, a week after Schulhof talked to Billboard about his reasons for creating the fund, as well as its performance since its launch.
The MUSQ website lists you as CEO of the fund. If you are the creator and the chief executive, why doesn’t your name appear on any of the financial filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission? Jay Garrett Stevens is listed as the CEO in the annual report.
Once I owned the index, I licensed it. There are maybe a half a dozen white-label, turnkey service providers that manage and work with ETF investment trusts. In order to be listed on any of the stock exchanges, the fund has to be a trust. So I identified what I believe to be the best ETF service provider out there, Exchange Traded Concepts. If you go to their website, you’ll see they manage several billion dollars and something like 60 ETFs across all kinds of other thematic funds. Garrett is the CEO of ETC, and he is listed in all those filings like that, as are the names of [ETC’s] portfolio advisers.
Promotional materials that Schulhof handed out during MUSQ’s first day of trading.
Nina Westervelt
In that case, what is your role with the MUSQ fund?
I am the founder, sponsor, owner and CEO. I handle all marketing. I am the face for this fund. I’ve done tons of podcast interviews and things like Fintech.tv. When reporters call, I am the one talking about the results from Luminate’s midyear report, Goldman Sachs’ Music in the Air report or something Billboard may have written about. I’m also out there talking to investors, evangelizing about how the music industry is undermonetized, and cheap when it’s compared to streaming services like Netflix or Hulu.
How do your service providers work with MUSQ?
ETC is doing all the back-office work for me. They are the adviser and the trading subadviser. Here’s an analogy: If I buy a publishing catalog and outsource it to Kobalt to handle the collections, accounting and to deal with all the other back-office stuff, it’s basically the same thing. Meanwhile, VettaFi does the rebalancing of the index fund every quarter, aligning it with the eligibility requirements for the companies’ shares in the fund. I give those results to ETC.
Do you have any fiduciary responsibility for the fund?
No. What I do on a daily basis besides marketing is deal with all the compliance. I get everything cleared and [Financial Industry Regulatory Authority-approved]. And I need to get my appearances on podcasts and other media approved by compliance if I want to put them on our website.
What are the eligibility requirements for a company’s shares to be considered for inclusion in the MUSQ index?
Companies eligible for the MUSQ index either have to generate more than 50% of their revenue from music or they have to be a top five player in [music] streaming or content, live music, ticketing, technology or radio. If you look in our fund, we do have Apple, Amazon and Google, and clearly those names don’t generate more than 50% of their revenue from music, but they are among the top five players in the streaming category.
A plaque that the New York Stock Exchange presented to him on July 13, 2023, when he rang the closing bell.
Nina Westervelt
What other requirements or restrictions does MUSQ have?
No single stock can be greater than 5% of the fund’s overall holdings. It used to be 7%, but I lowered it. If a company has a good year and its stock comprises 8% of the index, it would be rebalanced at the end of the quarter. Other rules: No company can have less than a $100 million market capitalization or a daily trading liquidity of less than $500,000 per day. So those rules help give the index a good crosssection of small-cap, midcap and large-capitalization companies with liquidity. And I added a small buffer: If a company drops below $100 million in market cap, then their capitalization weight is cut in half. If the stock price continues to drop in the next quarter, it comes off the index.
Have any mainstream music industry stocks not met the requirements to be included in the index?
You may notice Deezer is not in our index. Even though it has over a $200 million market cap, it does not meet the daily trading liquidity requirement.
Have any companies been removed from the index?
IHeart was once in our fund but the stock is down 70%, so it is no longer in the index. The reverse is true if a small [music-related] company grows and now has a market cap greater than $100 million and it also has the required daily trading level of liquidity. Then it can become eligible. It has to have both ingredients.
When a big company in the index releases its financials, does it have much of an impact on the index’s share price?
Yes. The share price is based on the net asset value, but earnings do have an impact. Spotify right now has an average weight of about 3.4% in our fund, so it’s a top 10 holding. The stock crushed earnings in July, and year to date it’s up almost 70%, so that’s going to have a greater weight this quarter because it delivered stellar results. Other stocks like Believe and Tencent are posting positive returns that will have an impact on the weighting. But no single name can be greater than 5% of the fund. MUSQ pricing has been pretty stable during the past year [ranging from a high of $25.82 on July 31, 2023, to a low of $22.17 on Aug. 5, 2024].
This signed copy of Dr. Dre’s The Chronic is a souvenir from Schulhof’s first music industry internship with Jimmy Iovine at Interscope. Dre’s inscription: “Join the Chronic Patrol and take the hit of the bomb shit! Stay up.”
Nina Westervelt
What happens when the stocks in the index aren’t doing well?
MUSQ is a highly diversified, uncorrelated fund. So when the markets are tanking, MUSQ is not tanking. Also, we’re not a meme play in any way. This is really designed to capture the growth and accurately track the global music industry. We view this as a long-term growth investment for investors.
Does MUSQ consist entirely of equity investments, or do you buy fixed-income instruments from these companies too?
They are all equities.
You say your fund is diversified by music industry sector, geography and genre.
The index has labels and music publishers that supply content, it has companies in the concert business, it has technology stocks, and those companies are diversified by genre. Also, the index is diversified across many countries. Today, it looks like 49% is U.S., 21% is Korean, 11% is Japan. If you go to the index page on our website, it will give you a breakdown. Internationally, we’ve got some exciting companies: Tencent in China, CTS Eventim in Germany, Hipgnosis in the U.K., Believe in France. And then we’ve got 10 or 11 K-pop stocks like Genie Music Corp and Cocoa, [and] the two biggest streaming companies in South Korea, HYBE and YG Entertainment. We have companies like Cloud Music and Avex in Japan and Amuse, one of the biggest content companies in Taiwan.
Does having international companies make the index more attractive to investors?
All the international companies in this fund trade in local currencies. You would have to open up local accounts to trade them, and that costs fees. MUSQ creates a very liquid, convenient and portable way for investors to have access to all these exciting companies.
Guitar that Bruce Springsteen autographed for Schulhof when they met after a show on the 1996 Ghost of Tom Joad tour.
Nina Westervelt
How did you do on Hipgnosis?
Hipgnosis was 2.3% weight in our fund and because Blackstone is taking it private, it is up 42%, so we made money on it.
Your fund has grown from $2 million in assets to over $20 million in assets. What’s the next goal?
To reach $25 million. A lot of financial firms have that as a minimum before they offer it to their customer. Beyond that, it’s $50 million. If the MUSQ fund gets to that point, it would have hundreds of thousands of financial advisers offering it as an investment option.
CTS Eventim shares finished the week up 5.3% after the company sounded upbeat about the second half of 2024 in its Thursday (Aug. 22) earnings release.
Based on its performance in the first half of the year, the German promoter and ticket seller expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) “to grow significantly” in the latter half of the year. Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA improved 23.3% to 110.0 million euros ($118.4 million) with the help of the June acquisition of See Tickets from Vivendi.
CTS Eventim is among the best-performing music stocks of 2024, having gained 34.5% year to date. That gain outstrips fellow promoter Live Nation (up 25.0%) and lags behind only Believe (up 43.3%), Sphere Entertainment Co. (up 47.3%) and Spotify (up 82.3%).
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As well as CTS Eventim fared this week, three other music companies had larger gains. iHeartMedia jumped 19.0% to $1.42, continuing its tendency to rise and fall in the absence of any market-moving news or financial releases. SiriusXM rose 6.7% to $3.00, perhaps assisted by news the company signed Gen Z podcaster Alex Cooper (Call Her Daddy) in a move that could help bring a younger audience to its new streaming app. HYBE improved 6.1% to 166,400 won ($125.60).
Chinese music streamer Cloud Music gained 1.4% to 91.60 HKD ($11.75) after the company posted revenue of 4.07 billion RMB ($571 million), up 4.1%, in the first half of 2024, it announced Thursday (Aug. 22). Like the leading Chinese music streamer, Tencent Music Entertainment, Cloud Music has two segments that are headed in opposite directions. Music subscription revenue grew 26.6% to 2.56 billion RMB while social entertainment and other revenue fell 19.9% to 1.51 billion RMB ($212 million).
An unusually large majority of music stocks posted gains this week. The Billboard Global Music Index gained 2.7% to 1,829.18, bringing its year-to-date increase to 19.2%. Of the 20 stocks on the index, 17 were gainers and just three lost ground. Three radio companies (iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and SiriusXM) led the way with an average gain of 8.8%. Multi-sector companies (including Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group and HYBE) rose an average of 3.4%. Live music companies had an average gain of 3.0%.
Streaming companies fell by an average of 0.2%. In fact, all three companies in the red this week were music streamers: Deezer (down 0.5%), Tencent Music Entertainment (down 2.8%) and Anghami (down 3.3%). Spotify, the index’s largest component, gained 1.5% to $337.38.
Stocks were up in the U.S. on positive economic news. After U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell suggested on Friday (Aug. 23) it would soon cut interest rates, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished the week up 1.4%. In South Korea, where trading was closed by the time the Federal Reserve statement made news, the KOSPI composite index rose 0.2% to 2,701.69. Likewise, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.9% to 2,854.37. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 0.2% to 8,327.78.
Sphere Entertainment Co. shares spiked 22.3% this week after the company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday (Aug. 14) showed that the Las Vegas venue brought in $151 million in the quarter and $489 million in its first three full quarters of operation. Total revenue of $273 million — a figure that includes MSG Networks — was in line with analyst estimates while earnings per share beat estimates.
During Wednesday’s earnings call, CEO James Dolan said the company is learning how to get the most out of the $2.3 billion venue with not just concerts but corporate and sporting events and Sphere’s current cash cow, motion pictures. “Our plan for Sphere is to create widespread demand for our offerings and drive utilization far in excess of traditional venues,” Dolan said.
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After hosting residencies by U2, Phish and Dead & Company, Sphere will begin a string of concerts by the Eagles from September to November and will host its first EDM events in December with Italian producer Anyma. Dolan didn’t provide specifics about additional residencies but said to expect an artist in “the country category” in 2025.
LiveOne’s shares rose 16.3% this week after the Los Angeles-based music streamer announced its fiscal first-quarter earnings on Tuesday (Aug. 13). A 29% increase in paid members, to 653,000, helped revenue improve 19% to $33.1 million from $27.8 million in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization jumped 31% to $2.9 million.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) fell 0.7% to 1,780.54 despite most of the stocks gaining and the market enjoying one of its best weeks of 2024 thanks to a host of positive news. Driven by stronger-than-expected retail sales data on Thursday (Aug. 15) and encouraging inflation news earlier in the week, the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 5.3% to 17,631.72 and the S&P 500 finished its best week of the year, gaining 3.9% to 5,524.25.
The BGMI’s largest companies fell in the middle of the pack. Live Nation shares were up 3.2% to $95.18 and Universal Music Group rose 0.9% to 22.35 euros ($24.66). Among the losers were Warner Music Group, down 0.4% to $28.22, and Spotify, down 0.7% to $337.38.
Stock gains were seen globally. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 1.8% to 8,311.41. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index jumped 4.2% to 2,697.20. China’s Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.6% to 2,879.43.
Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) dropped 18.8% this week following its second-quarter earnings release on Tuesday (Aug. 13). TME revenues were 1.7% lower as gains in music were overshadowed by losses in social entertainment. Despite the sharp decline, TME shares are still up 16.9% year-to-date.
TME’s latest quarterly results weren’t unlike those that preceded it, with strong music subscription growth at music apps QQ Music, Kugou Music and Kuwo Music helping offset a decline at its karaoke business. While music average revenue per user grew 10% and TME finished the quarter with 117 million music subscribers, the company’s weak guidance on future subscriber growth likely caused its share price to fall.
JYP Entertainment’s 11.3% decline following its second-quarter earnings results marked the second-worst performance for BGMI stocks. The K-pop company’s revenue dropped 37% due to an 82% decline in album sales. Other K-pop companies experienced lighter declines: HYBE fell 3.4%, SM Entertainment slipped 3.8% and YG Entertainment dropped 1.3%. Those losses deepened the K-pop companies’ already significant losses in 2024. Year to date, the four South Korean companies have lost an average of 34.8% while the KOSPI composite index has gained 1.6%.
During a chaotic week for stock markets around the world, Universal Music Group (UMG) shares rose 3.3% to 22.15 euros ($24.20), enough to make the Amsterdam-listed company the top-performing music stock of the week.
Stocks were hammered on Monday (Aug. 5) as markets reacted to a disappointing U.S. jobs report the prior Friday (Aug. 2), leading to mounting concerns the economy could fall into a recession. The Billboard Global Music Index fell 2.0% on Monday, though it experienced a lighter decline than both the Nasdaq (down 3.4%) and the S&P 500 (down 3.0%). Investors didn’t panic, however, and markets made gains over the remainder of the week. On Friday (Aug. 9), the Nasdaq closed down 0.2% for the week while the S&P 500 broke even.
UMG received a boost on Wednesday (Aug. 7) from Warner Music Group’s quarterly earnings report — a welcome change after a second-quarter slowdown in UMG’s streaming growth so worried investors that the company’s shares fell 24% the following day. WMG’s latest earnings results, which showed that recorded music streaming revenue grew 8.7% after a few adjustments, may have convinced some UMG investors that they overreacted. In light of this new information, UMG shares jumped 6.6% to 22.74 euros ($24.85) on Wednesday. Notably, this Friday’s closing price is 14% above the lowest closing price — 21.12 euros ($23.08) — since the 24% decline occurred on July 25.
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WMG shares rose 0.3% to $28.34 this week after the company announced that quarterly revenue dropped 1% and net profit improved 14%. The third-largest major’s streaming gains satisfied some, but not all, analysts. Morgan Stanley analysts cited “lowered streaming growth outlook” in lowering their price target to $35 from $41. Guggenheim, encouraged by WMG’s subscription revenue growth acceleration and performance relative to UMG, maintained its $44 price target. JP Morgan, which sees WMG as “well positioned” to capture paid streaming adoption, left its $41 price target unchanged.
The Billboard Global Music Index, a float-adjusted measure of 20 companies’ market capitalizations, rose 3.1%, breaking a streak of four consecutive weeks with a loss. Spotify, the index’s largest component, gained 2.6% to $339.69. Tencent Music Entertainment, which will report earnings on Tuesday (Aug. 13), rose 2.8% to $12.97.
In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 declined 3.6% to 8,168.10. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell 3.3% to 2,588.43. China’s Shanghai composite index dropped 1.5% to 2,862.19.
iHeartMedia shares fell 10.7% to $1.33 following the company’s second-quarter earnings on Thursday (Aug. 8). The company reported a 1% increase in second-quarter revenue and sounded optimistic that political advertising will provide a boost to the full-year results. Both third-quarter and full-year revenue are expected to be up by mid-single digits.
Shares of radio broadcaster Townsquare Media dropped 5.8% following the company’s second-quarter results on Tuesday. Revenue fell 2.5% and net loss increased to $48.9 million from $2.7 million in the prior-year period. Its $0.14 earnings per share missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.42.
K-pop stocks were the hardest hit music stocks on Monday (Aug. 5) as global markets continued Friday’s decline in the U.S. with major selloffs. Four K-pop companies — HYBE, SM Entertainment, JYP Entertainment and YG Entertainment — fell an average of 8.8% on Monday, while a major South Korean stock index, the KOSPI composite index, […]
Radio stocks struggled this week as companies’ second-quarter earnings revealed additional revenue losses.
SiriusXM shares fell 15.6% after the company’s second-quarter earnings on Thursday (Aug. 1) showed a loss of 173,000 satellite radio subscribers and 41,000 Pandora subscribers. Revenue fell 3% to $2.18 billion, although net profit improved 2% to $316 million. In the first quarter, SiriusXM lost 594,000 subscribers, although revenue improved 0.8% to $2.16 billion.
SiriusXM is trying to thread the needle as it expands its product line and gives consumers more options. The new $9.99-per-month streaming service is intended to appeal to a broader audience than potential satellite radio subscribers. At the same time, the company is introducing new pricing tiers for satellite radio, including a $9.99 music-only subscription that can expand to news, talk and sports for additional fees. The trick is not cannibalizing its core, higher-priced satellite offering. “The early results in our testing have been encouraging,” CEO Jennifer Witz said during Thursday’s earnings call. “It shows that we’re getting consumers into the right packages for them.”
Shares of radio broadcaster Cumulus Media fell 21% to $1.62 and dropped as far as $1.29 on Friday (Aug. 2) — a 52-week low — after the company’s second-quarter earnings showed that revenue fell 2.5% and net loss increased to $27.7 million from $1.1 million a year earlier. iHeartMedia, which doesn’t report earnings until Thursday (Aug. 8), appeared to be a casualty of Cumulus Media’s results as its shares fell 12.9% to $1.49.
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Collectively, radio companies have had the worst stock performance of all music companies this year. Year to date, Cumulus Media is down 69.5%, iHeartMedia has fallen 44.2% and SiriusXM is off 42.6%. Only JYP Entertainment, which has fallen 44.3% year to date, has suffered a similar drop.
The Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI), a measure of the market capitalizations of 20 publicly traded music companies, fell 1.1% to 1,739.18. Even though 13 of the 20 stocks lost ground — five of them suffering double-digit declines — gains by some of the index’s most valuable companies nearly offset the losses. HYBE improved 5.3% to 180,800 won ($139.01). Spotify gained 2.8% to $331.02. And Universal Music Group (UMG) rose 0.5% to 21.44 euros ($23.41).
Music stocks have had a case of the summer doldrums after soaring in the winter and spring. The BGMI has fallen for four consecutive weeks and stands 5.9% below its all-time high of 1,847.64 set on May 17. On Friday, the index reached its lowest point since April 19.
Music companies’ losses were compounded by sharp declines in U.S. stock markets on Friday after news that the unemployment rate rose in July stoked fears the economy could enter a recession. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 3.4% this week and stood in “correction” territory, at 10.1% below its all-time high set on July 11. Amazon fell 8.0% after missing revenue expectations and providing investors with a disappointing forecast. Intel fell 31.5% after announcing broad layoffs, reporting a decline in quarterly revenue and issuing weak guidance.
The S&P 500 dropped 2.1% to 5,346.56. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 gained 2.3% to 8,474.71. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index dropped 2.0% to 2,676.19. China’s Shanghai Composite Index improved 0.5% to 2,905.34.
The week’s greatest gainer was K-pop company JYP Entertainment, which rose 6% to 56,400 won ($41.53). JYP was added to the BGMI this week after Hipgnosis Songs Fund was removed from the London Stock Exchange once its acquisition by Blackstone was completed. Three other K-pop companies were among the week’s few gainers: HYBE improved 5.3%, YG Entertainment rose 2.1% and and SM Entertainment increased 1.0%.
Reservoir Media dropped 14.4% to $7.37 after releasing its quarterly earnings on Wednesday (July 31). Tencent Music Entertainment, which will report earnings on Aug. 13, fell 10.5% to $12.62. Warner Music Group (WMG) fell 5.3% to $28.26. In the wake of UMG’s latest earnings results, which showed a slowdown in subscription revenue, J.P. Morgan dropped its price target on shares of WMG — which will report earnings on Aug. 7 — to $41.00 from $42.00.
By raising prices and cutting costs, Spotify has transformed into the kind of profitable company investors always hoped it could become, and the streamer’s upbeat second-quarter earnings on Tuesday (July 23) led its share price to jump 9.1% to $321.87 this week.
After Spotify announced it grew revenues by 20%, improved its gross margin and beat guidance on new subscriber additions, a slew of analysts raised their price targets, including Goldman Sachs (from $320 to $425), JP Morgan (from $375 to $425), Rosenblatt (from $396 to $399), Pivotal Research (from $400 to $460), Barclays (from $350 to $360), Cowen (from $273 to $356) and B of A Securities (from $380 to $430).
Universal Music Group (UMG), the other music company that released earnings this week, had the opposite reaction from investors when its second-quarter subscription revenue fell far short of analysts’ expectations, leading its share price to drop 24.1% to 21.34 euros ($23.17). But it wasn’t all bad news: Overall revenue at the music giant grew 8.7% to 2.93 billion euros ($3.16 billion) and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose 17.4% to 580 million euros ($624 million).
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But investors focused on UMG’s streaming numbers above all else. The recorded music division’s subscription revenue grew 6.9%, down from 12.5% in the prior-year quarter, while overall streaming revenue grew 4.1% compared to 11% a year earlier. A number of analysts lowered their UMG price targets following Wednesday’s earnings announcement, albeit by smaller margins than the decline in the share price.
UMG went public in Sept. 2021, giving investors an opportunity to capitalize on the largest music company during a time of streaming growth and industry expansion. Even optimistic investors will have to bear through short-term ups and downs, however. “If you think the longer term analysis holds then [UMG’s current price] represents a significant buying opportunity,” J.P. Morgan analyst Daniel Kerven wrote in an email to investors on Friday (July 26). “Ultimately we believe you will still get to the same destination…just the pace of getting there was never likely to be linear, particularly on a quarter by quarter basis.”
The Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) fell 1.2% to 1,757.70 this week, marking the third consecutive weekly decline. The index has risen 14.6% year to date but fell 3.2% in July and is 4.9% off its all-time high of 1,847.64 set on May 17. Nine of the index’s 20 stocks were winners, 10 lost ground and one was unchanged.
UMG’s earnings appeared to have an impact on similar companies that have yet to release their own. Warner Music Group shares fell 6.6% the day UMG released earnings and ended the week down 6.8% to $29.83. Believe shares dropped 9.1% to 13.76 euros ($14.96). However, because UMG’s publishing business fared well — revenues grew 10.1% to 511 million euros ($550 million) — it’s not a coincidence that shares of Reservoir Media, which gets most of its revenue from music publishing, jumped 11.4% to $8.61.
Many major indexes lost ground this week despite gains on Friday following encouraging U.S. inflation data. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite fell 2.1% to 17,357.88 and the S&P 500 declined 0.8% to 5,459.10. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index dipped 2.3% to 2,731.90. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was down 3.1% to 2,890.90. An outlier was the United Kingdom’s FTSE 100, which gained 1.6% to 8,285.71.
Slowing growth in subscription streaming sent Universal Music Group’s share price down 23.5% following the company’s second-quarter earnings report on Wednesday (July 24).
On Thursday (July 25), UMG shares dropped as far as 19.93 euros ($21.61), 29.8% below Wednesday’s closing price, before closing at 21.70 euros ($23.53) – a 23.5% decline that erased 12.2 billion euros ($13.25 billion) from UMG’s market capitalization.
Investors were reacting to a marked slowdown in streaming revenue in UMG’s recorded music division: In the second quarter, music subscription revenue grew 6.9%. That was down from 12.5% in the prior-year quarter, while overall streaming revenue grew 4.1% compared to 11% a year earlier. Non-subscription streaming revenue dropped 4.2% after growing 2.9% in the prior-year quarter.
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Analysts had expected far better. Barclays, for example, forecasted overall streaming growth of 10.5% and subscription growth of 11.0%. Guggenheim had forecast subscription growth of 11.3%.
During Wednesday’s earnings call, Michael Nash, UMG’s executive vp of digital strategy, singled out Spotify, YouTube and “local and regional” platforms for continuing to add subscribers. Apple Music and Amazon Music were conspicuously not mentioned, leading some analysts to believe those platforms are struggling to add new subscribers. “Other larger partners have been less successful at driving global adoption,” said Nash, “and there’s been some slowdown in terms of subscriber additions there.”
Despite the streaming slowdown, UMG managed to improve both top-line revenue and margins. Overall revenue grew 8.7% to 2.93 billion euros ($3.16 billion). As a percentage of revenue, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) improved to 22.1% from 21.9% in the prior-year period. Physical music sales grew 14.4% and merchandise sales jumped 43.7%. Analysts were far more concerned about the change in streaming, however, and seemed less concerned about improvements in lower-margin physical and merchandising that tend to naturally fluctuate based on new release and touring activity.
Many analysts lowered their price targets following Wednesday’s results, albeit by smaller margins than investors dropped the share price on Thursday. Guggenheim dropped UMG by 14% to 27.50 euros ($29.82). Barclays lowered its price target by 12% to 26.00 euros ($28.20). Citi lowered UMG by 7.8% to 29.50 euros ($28.20). And Kepler Cheuvreux reduced its price target 3.5% to 27.00 euros ($29.28).
For the first half of 2024, the stock market was a microcosm of the shifts in the music industry’s balance of power. Streaming stocks soared as investors rewarded companies that grew their paid-subscriber bases; radio stocks plummeted as companies struggled through a soft advertising market.
Spotify was the best-performing stock in the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) for the measurement period, Jan. 2-June 28, 2024. Shares of the Swedish company, which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, jumped 67.4% to $314.45 on June 28 and reached as high as $331.08 on June 5 — its highest mark since February 2021, the month that the shares closed at their all-time high of $387.44. Subscribers grew to 239 million at the end of March, up 14% from the prior-year period.
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A year-and-a-half ago, Spotify ended 2022 at $70.05, down 66% for the year. The remarkable turnaround stemmed from a change in business strategy. In its formative years, Spotify funded its rapid growth at the expense of profits. Investors tacitly approved of this strategy. But after a pandemic-fueled boom in streaming stocks, investors tired on growth-obsessed companies and demanded sustainable margins and better bottom lines. (Netflix sank 51% in 2022 and has since recovered, too.) So Spotify moved to become “relentlessly resourceful,” as CEO Daniel Ek put it, laying off nearly a quarter of its workforce and cutting many of its high-cost exclusive podcasts, including its deal with Prince Harry and Meghan Markle’s Archewell Audio. It also raised prices globally — twice in the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia — to further boost margins.
The six streaming companies on the BGMI posted an average gain of 21.8%, which bested the 18.3% average increase of all stocks on the index. China’s Tencent Music Entertainment rose 55.8% as first-quarter paid subscribers grew 20.2% year over year to 113.5 million, helping offset a sharply declining social entertainment business. LiveOne improved 12.1% as the company finished its fiscal year (ended March 31) with a 30% increase in paid subscribers and a 19% revenue gain. Anghami, based in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, managed a 2.9% gain and got a lift when video streaming platform OSN+ acquired a 55.5% stake in April. Paris-based Deezer was the exception, dropping 19.2%.
Only companies in takeover acquisitions came close to the streaming leaders’ performances. Listed on the London Stock Exchange, investment trust Hipgnosis Songs Fund rose 42.2% to 1.024 pounds ($1.30) as a result of Blackstone’s offer — which was backed by HSF’s board and accepted by shareholders on July 8 — to buy the company’s shares at 1.05 pounds ($1.31) apiece, a 49.2% premium over the pre-offer price. Likewise, Believe climbed 40.0% to 14.70 pounds ($15.79) after a consortium led by CEO Denis Ladegaillerie raised its stake to 95% through a tender offer at 15 pounds ($16.11), a 21% premium price before the takeover bid was announced.
At the other end of the spectrum, radio companies — iHeartMedia, Cumulus Media and SiriusXM — lost an average of 56.4%. Cumulus dropped 61.7% as first-quarter revenue fell nearly 3%. iHeartMedia dropped 59.2% and lost 36% on May 10 alone after the company’s forecast for second-quarter revenue was below analysts’ expectations. SiriusXM slipped 48.3% after it lost 445,000 self-pay satellite radio subscribers in 2023 and had slow uptake of its revamped, lower-priced streaming app launched in November. Lower average revenue per user and an “uncertain” advertising market means the company expects full-year revenue to drop more than 2% this year.
All four live music-ticketing companies posted gains at the midyear mark and had an average gain of 8.8%. Live Nation probably would have done better than its 0.2% increase had the U.S. Department of Justice not filed an antitrust lawsuit on May 23 that seeks to break up the company’s promotion and ticketing businesses. Germany’s CTS Eventim, which acquired Vivendi’s festival and ticketing businesses in June, climbed 24.4% thanks to a 22% jump in 2023 revenue and expectations for “a moderate rise” in 2024. MSG Entertainment and sister company Sphere Entertainment gained 7.5% and 3.1%, respectively.
Record labels and music publishers dropped an average of 4.4% if HSF and Believe are excluded (and gained 8.6% including them). Reservoir Media gained 10.8%, Universal Music Group rose 7.6%, and K-pop companies SM Entertainment and HYBE fell 12.7% and 13.3%, respectively. Warner Music Group lost 14.4%.
This story appeared in the July 20, 2024, issue of Billboard.
The two largest publicly traded record label and music publishing companies posted stock gains in a week that otherwise saw major indexes fall sharply.
Shares of both Universal Music Group (UMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) managed modest gains this week as companies prepare to release their latest quarterly earnings reports. UMG, which reports earnings on Wednesday (July 24), rose 2.6% to 28.11 euros ($30.61). Year-to-date, UMG shares are up 8.9%.
WMG, which reports earnings on Aug. 8, gained 3.5% to $32.00 after receiving a nod from Jefferies analysts earlier in the week. Noting that WMG shares are down this year (-10.6% as of Friday) and trade at a discount to UMG, Jefferies called WMG’s current price “attractive” and believes the company will benefit from its slate of new releases (Zach Bryan, Dua Lipa) and cost-saving measures. Indeed, WMG did well in the first half of the year by owning the top three tracks in the U.S., according to Luminate’s midyear report. Jefferies has a $38 price target on WMG, which represents an 18.8% upside over Friday’s closing price.
The Billboard Global Music Index fell 2.9% to 1,779.41, dropping its year-to-date gain to 16.0%. Overall, nine stocks were gainers, ten were losers and one was unchanged. But the rough week extended far beyond music stocks. The Nasdaq composite fell 3.6% to 17,726.94 as investors dumped tech stocks such as chipmaker Nvidia (down 8.8% this week) and cybersecurity company Crowdstrike (down 11.1% on Friday thanks to a massive global internet outage), while the S&P 500 fell 2.0% to 5,505.00. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 dropped 1.2% to 8,155.72. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index fell 2.2% to 2,795.46. China’s Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.4% to 2,982.31.
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Spotify shares fell for the second consecutive week, dropping 2.4% to $295.09. On Thursday (July 18), Guggenheim reiterated its “buy” rating and $400 price target. Analysts expect to see some “modest cost savings” from lower publishing royalties, a move that has sparked controversy in the music industry and attracted the attention of some U.S. lawmakers. What’s more, Guggenheim analysts do not expect a “significant portion” of premium subscribers to switch to the lower-cost “basic” tier following price increases for the standard plans. Investors weren’t as optimistic, though, and Spotify fell 10.8% below its 2024 high of $331.08 set on June 5.
SiriusXM fell 8.1% to $3.41, bringing its year-to-date loss to 37.7%. This week, Morgan Stanley slightly lowered its forecast for net satellite radio subscriber additions in both the second quarter and the full year. SiriusXM, which reports quarterly earnings on Aug. 1, lost 1.4% of its satellite radio subscribers in the first quarter of 2024.
LiveOne shares rose 5.7% to $1.49 following the release of a preliminary look at quarterly earnings on Thursday. The music streaming company, which owns Slacker and a majority of podcaster PodcastOne, expects fiscal first-quarter revenue to increase 20% to $33.1 million.
K-pop stocks added to their losing streaks this week. HYBE fell 3.8% to 182,500 won ($131.31) and brought its year-to-date loss to 21.8%. SM Entertainment fell 5.8% to 73,300 won ($52.74) and has dropped 20.4% this year despite launching a new joint venture with Kakao Entertainment and overhauling its corporate governance. YG Entertainment lost 8% to 35,250 won ($25.36), bringing its year-to-date decline to 30.7%. JYP Entertainment was an outlier, gaining 2.6% this week to 59,000 won ($42.45), although the stock is still down 41.8% this year.