stocks
After a four-week span that negated some positive earnings results and strong global trends, music stocks received a reprieve from the gloom that has spread over the economy since the Trump administration imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and European countries.
Tencent Music Entertainment shares rose 11.6% to $14.00 after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release on Tuesday (March 18) showed a big increase in both subscribers and subscription revenue. The Chinese streaming company’s revenue surpassed $1 billion in the fourth quarter, an 8.2% increase, and net profit climbed 47.3% to $284 million. Additionally, Tencent Music made two announcements that tend to get a warm reaction from investors: a dividend and a $1 billion share repurchase program.
The Billboard Global Music Index gained 3.0% to 2,533.53 as 12 of its 20 stocks posted gains, seven lost value and one was unchanged. After suffering through a tariff-induced, four-week losing streak, the S&P 500 improved 0.5% and the Nasdaq composite gained 0.2%. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 broke a two-week losing streak by gaining 0.2%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 3.0%. China’s SSE Composite Index dropped 1.6%.
Trending on Billboard
Music streaming company LiveOne gained 13.3% after the company announced it surpassed 1.3 million subscribers and ad-supported users. The index’s third-best performer, K-pop company SM Entertainment, rose 10.0% to 100,300 KRW ($68.46).
A handful of companies that had taken a hit since mid-February fared better this week. iHeartMedia gained 9.3% to $1.76, improving its year-to-date loss to 17.4%. Madison Square Garden Entertainment rose 7.6% to $33.85, its first weekly gain in four weeks. Live Nation also broke a four-week losing streak, improving 3.2% to $123.06.
Satellite radio broadcaster SiriusXM shares gained 3.5% to $23.47. The company announced on Thursday at named Anjali Sud, CEO of on-demand video streaming platform Tubi, as an independent director to its board. SiriusXM shares are down 39.5% over the last 52 weeks but have rebounded recently and are up 5.0% year to date.
French streaming company Deezer shares fell 6.0% to 1.41 euros ($1.53) following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release on Tuesday (March 18). Deezer’s revenue grew 12% to $591 million but its subscribers fell 3.1% to 9.7 million (the decline was actually more significant Deezer because removed 500,000 inactive family accounts from its 2023 subscriber count). Despite the week’s decline, Deezer shares are up 7.6% year to date.
The biggest loser of the week, JYP Entertainment, fell 12.2% this week following the K-pop company’s fourth-quarter and full-year earnings release on Tuesday (March 18). Revenue grew 26.8% in the fourth quarter and 6.2% in the full year, but operating profit dropped 2.6% in the quarter and 24.3% in the full year due to a decline in album sales, a higher proportion of management revenue and an introduction of new artist lineups.
The music business has earned a reputation for being recession-proof. In bad economic times, people still pay for their music subscription services and want to go to concerts. Some synch opportunities may dry up as advertisers make cutbacks, but overall, the music is a hearty business that doesn’t follow typical economic cycles.
Music business stocks, however, aren’t immune to fluctuations in the market and investors’ worries about the increasingly fragile state of the economy. This week, just three of the 20 companies on the Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) finished with gains, and five stocks had losses in excess of 10%. Despite a host of strong quarterly earnings results in recent weeks, President Donald Trump’s tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico, China and Europe have caused markets to panic, taking down music stocks along with the industrial and agricultural companies most likely to be affected.
The S&P 500 entered correction territory on Thursday (March 13) when it closed down 10% from the all-time high. The Russell 2000, an index of small companies, was down 18.4% from its peak. Most stocks improved on Friday (March 14) as markets rallied — despite a decline in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index — but the first four days of the week were too much to overcome. The S&P 500 finished the week down 2.3% and the Nasdaq composite closed down 2.4%.
Trending on Billboard
Markets outside of the U.S. fared better than U.S. markets. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 dropped just 0.5%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index rose 0.1% and China’s SSE Composite Index improved 1.4%.
Even though 17 of the 20 companies on the BGMI posted losses this week, the index rose 0.5% to 2,460.71 because of Spotify’s 8.1% gain, and the dollar’s nearly 1% increase against the euro offset the weekly declines of 17 other stocks. Spotify is the BGMI’s largest component with a market capitalization of approximately $117 billion — more than twice that of Universal Music Group’s (UMG’s) $50.2 billion. The stock also received rare good news this week as Redburn Atlantic initiated coverage of Spotify with a $545 price target (which implies 5.5% upside from Friday’s closing price) and a neutral rating.
UMG shares fell 8.8% on Friday, a reaction to Pershing Square’s announcement on Thursday that it will sell 50 million shares worth approximately $1.5 billion. Pershing Square CEO Bill Ackman called UMG “one of the best businesses we have ever owned.” JP Morgan analyst Daniel Kerven admitted the news was “a near-term negative for confidence” in UMG but saw Pershing Square’s decision to sell shares as a move to take profits and re-weigh its portfolio (UMG was 27% of Pershing Square’s holdings) rather than a commentary about UMG’s long-term potential or recent operating performance. UMG shares ended the week down 8.2% to 25.46 euros ($27.78) but remained up 6.5% year to date.
Live Nation shares dropped 6.5% to $119.22, marking the stock’s fourth consecutive weekly decline. During the week, Deutsche Bank increased its Live Nation price target to $170 from $150 and maintained its “buy” rating. On Friday, a judge denied Live Nation’s request to dismiss an accusation that the promoter illegally forced artists to use its promotion business if they wanted to perform in its amphitheaters.
Other U.S.-based live entertainment companies also fell sharply. Sphere Entertainment Co. fell 10.1% to $31.55. MSG Entertainment dropped 1.3% to $31.46 despite Wolfe Research upgrading the stock to “outperform” from “peer perform” with a $46 price target. Vivid Seats, a secondary ticketing platform, fell 28.1% to $2.86 after the company announced fourth-quarter earnings.
Radio companies, which tend to suffer when economic uncertainty causes advertisers to pull back spending, had yet another down week. iHeartMedia fell 12.0% to $1.61. Cumulus Media dropped 11.5% to $0.46. And SiriusXM, which announced layoffs this week, fell 10.1% to $22.67. Year to date, iHeartMedia is down 24.4% and Cumulus Media is down 40.3%. SiriusXM, on the other hand, has gained 1.4% in 2025.
K-pop stocks also fell sharply despite South Korea’s market finishing the week with a small gain. HYBE, SM Entertainment, JYP Entertainment and YG Entertainment had an average decline of 7.4% for the week. Collectively, however, the four South Korean companies have had a strong start to 2025 and, after this week, had an average year-to-date gain of 19.3%.
Hedge fund Pershing Square Holdings is parting with 50 million shares of one of its most prized assets, Universal Music Group (UMG). The sale of 50 million shares — approximately 2.7% of UMG’s outstanding shares — on the Euronext Amsterdam exchange, at 26.60 euros ($28.97) to 27.90 euros ($30.28), according to Bloomberg, would gross between […]
Live Nation, Sphere Entertainment Co. and MSG Entertainment stocks fell this week as markets were hurt by fears about the impacts of U.S. tariffs, ongoing inflation and government layoffs.
Live Nation, which reported record full-year results on Feb. 20, dropped 11.0% to $127.51, erasing the stock’s entire year-to-date gain. Sphere Entertainment Co. dropped 18.8% to $35.45 following the company’s quarterly earnings on Monday (March 3). MSG Entertainment slipped 7.7% to $31.86.
U.S. stocks had their worst week in months. The Dow slipped 2.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 3.1% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 3.5%. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 dipped 1.5%.
Trending on Billboard
On Friday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the U.S. economy would go through an adjustment period with less government spending. “The market and the economy have just become hooked,” he said. “We’ve become addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period.”
Doubts about live music’s ability to sustain growth in the current economic climate were captured in a CFRA analyst’s note. “Live entertainment and exorbitant ticket prices have raised investor concerns whether record demand will recede with a rising household cost of living and lower consumer confidence,” analyst Kenneth Leon wrote in a March 5 note to investors.
Nevertheless, Leon maintained its $135 price target and upgraded Live Nation shares to “hold” from “sell.” The company, he added, “is a market leader in tickets and continues to fund large capital expenditures to expand its own venues.”
Sphere Entertainment Co. shares fell 13.6% on Monday (March 3), the day the company released quarterly earnings, and slipped another 6% through Friday (March 7). Revenue fell 2% to $308.3 million from the prior-year period, although revenue for the Sphere venue was up 1%. At the company’s MSG Networks division, revenue dropped 5% and its $34.2 million operating profit turned into a $35 million operating loss.
Numerous analysts made downward revisions to their Sphere models after the earnings release. Benchmark dropped its price target to $35 from $36. JP Morgan cut its price target to $54 from $57. And Seaport cut its earnings-per-share estimate for the current quarter to -$2.03 from -$1.66.
Other companies in the live entertainment space also declined. MSG Entertainment fell 7.7%, Vivid Seats dropped 3.9%, Eventbrite dipped 2.1% and German concert promoter CTS Eventim lost 0.6%. Many other companies that depend on consumer discretionary spending also fell this week, including Expedia Group (down 6.9%), Hyatt Hotels (down 3.7%) and cruise operator Carnival Corporation (down 13.7%).
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) dropped for the third consecutive week, falling 6.3% to 2,449.61. Although the index is up 15.3% year to date, it has fallen 11.1% in the last three weeks. Most of the index’s most valuable companies were among the week’s winners. Other than Live Nation, none of the 13 stocks that lost ground are among the index’s most valuable companies — with one major exception.
Spotify, the BGMI’s largest single component, dropped 12.6% to $531.71, putting the stock 18.5% below its all-time high set on Feb. 13. With a market capitalization of roughly $105 billion, Spotify is large enough to influence the fortunes of an index that contains 19 other stocks. Despite having a few off weeks, however, Spotify is the best-performing music stock of the last year and has gained 14.0% year to date.
Universal Music Group (UMG) shares rose 6.8% on Friday following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release on Thursday (March 6), though itended the week up just 3.3%. Warner Music Group appeared to benefit from investors’ enthusiasm about UMG’s earnings as its shares rose 2.0% to $34.39.
iHeartMedia CEO Bob Pittman caused his company’s stock to spike 23% on Thursday after an SEC filing revealed the executive purchased 200,000 shares. Investors noted the CEO’s optimism in his company’s future, and the stock ended a downward slide to finish the week up 3.4% to $1.83.
The week’s biggest gainer, Chinese music streaming company Tencent Music Entertainment (TME), rose 9.2% to $13.31. TME benefitted from a surge in Chinese stocks as comments made during the country’s parliamentary meetings this week fueled optimism that the government will provide stimulus for Chinese technology companies. The company will release fourth-quarter earnings on March 18.
Cumulus Media was the week’s biggest loser after dropping 27.8% to $0.52. The company revealed on Friday that it received a warning from the Nasdaq stock exchange that it faces a de-listing for failing to meet the minimum shareholders’ equity threshold of $10 million.
iHeartMedia CEO Bob Pittman apparently believes his company’s stock is undervalued.
The executive sent a message to Wall Street on Tuesday (March 4) when he spent $320,000 to purchase 200,000 iHeartMedia shares, according to an SEC filing released Thursday (March 6). Investors took note, sending the company’s stock price up 23.2% to $1.86.
iHeartMedia shares had plummeted 27.7% in the four trading days following the company’s fourth quarter earnings release on Feb. 27. The stock fell 15.3% to $1.77 following the announcement and slipped an additional 14.8%, to $1.51, by Wednesday (March 5). But Thursday’s SEC filing reduced iHeartMedia’s year-to-date decline to 6.1% from 23.7%.
CEOs will occasionally buy shares of their companies when they believe the market is undervaluing the company. In March 2020, Live Nation CEO Michael Rapino bought approximately $1 million worth of shares as the price faltered at the pandemic’s onset; Live Nation’s share price has since risen 262% to $131.11. In May 2022, Spotify CEO Daniel Ek bought $50 million of Spotify shares a week after the stock hit an all-time low of $95.74. “I believe our best days are ahead,” Ek wrote on Twitter at the time. Spotify’s share price has since risen nearly six-fold to $543.51.
iHeartMedia, the country’s largest radio broadcaster, is trying to navigate the decline in broadcast radio while building a digital business. Although it ranks No. 1 in podcast market share, the company’s legacy business is still twice the size of its digital business. To shore up its financials, the company has laid off employees, sold tower sites and restructured its debt.
Trending on Billboard
Last week, iHeartMedia executives told investors that first-quarter revenue would decline in the low single-digits and full-year revenue would be flat. CFO Rich Bressler said that January revenue was up 5.5% but February revenue was on track for a 7% decline as consumer sentiment suffered its biggest one-month decline since August 2021.
“Although the year began with optimism, many companies are now focusing on how potential tariffs, inflation and higher interest rates may impact their businesses, introducing an element of uncertainty,” said Bressler.
Pittman remained optimistic and believed those uncertainties will “steady up a lot” as the year progresses. “If there’s a change, people take a beat and adjust to the change,” he said. “There’s a big change between this [presidential] administration and the last one, and I think people are digesting. I don’t think the uncertainty is totally unexpected, and it’s certainly understandable.”
HYBE shares closed the week up 4.9% to 245,500 won ($167.94) after the company teased the return of BTS in 2025 during its fourth-quarter earnings release on Tuesday (Feb. 25), effectively leading a strong week for K-pop stocks amid an overall down period for both music stocks and markets in general. Among other K-pop companies, YG Entertainment gained 8.8%, JYP Entertainment improved 2.4% and SM Entertainment rose 0.9%.
HYBE partially attributed its 38% decline in 2024 operating income to the BTS hiatus that began in 2023 when several of the group’s members were forced to step away to complete South Korea’s required military service. But the company said it believes operating profit will improve in 2025 “through the comeback of 21st-century icons BTS” and payoffs from investments in the company’s social media-superfan platform, Weverse.
The K-pop giant’s revenue increased 4% to $1.58 billion last year, with recorded music revenue, the company’s largest source of income, dipping 11.3% but concerts revenue jumping 25.6% as the number of performances rose from 125 in 2023 to 172 in 2024. HYBE’s South Korean labels generated 15% more streaming revenue internationally even as streaming fell 17% at home. Revenue from U.S. labels (Big Machine and Quality Control) fell 16%.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) had more losers than winners this week as it fell 2.3% to 2,613.79. Just seven of the index’s stocks finished in positive territory, and outside of K-pop stocks, none gained more than 2%.
Markets had a rough week owing to inflation and recession fears. Amidst talks of U.S. tariffs on foreign imports, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is now predicting U.S. gross domestic product, a measure of the country’s economic activity, will decline 1.5% in the first quarter. The S&P 500 finished the week down 1.0% to 5,954.44 while the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite, weighed down by Nvidia’s weaker-than-expected first-quarter guidance, fell 3.5% to 18,847.28. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 was an outlier, gaining 1.7% to 8,809.74. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index sank 4.6% to 2,532.78. China’s SSE composite index dropped 1.7% to 3,320.90.
Live Nation shares fell 4.1% to $149.48 — the concert promoter’s second consecutive weekly decline. Wolfe Research lowered its Live Nation price target to $165 from $175 and Citigroup raised Live Nation to $175 from $163. Despite those declines, the company’s shares are up 10.6% year-to-date and 47.5% over the last 52 weeks.
Universal Music Group (UMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) fell 4.2% and 4.2%, respectively, with UMG slated to report fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday (March 6). Sphere Entertainment Co., which reports quarterly earnings on Monday (March 3), dropped 7.0% to $46.90, lowering its year-to-date gain to 2.8%.
Chinese music streamer Tencent Music Entertainment (TME) fell 15.3% to $14.40. On Friday (Feb. 28), the company announced a change on its board of directors, as Matthew Yun Ming Cheng retired from the board and was replaced by Wai Yip Tsang, the current financial controller of Tencent Holdings. In announcing Tsang’s appointment, Cussion Pang, executive chairman of Tencent Music Entertainment, said Tsang’s “deep financial background, extensive experience and business insights will be a tremendous asset to TME.”
iHeartMedia shares fell 15.3% on Friday and ended the week down 16.1% following the company’s fourth-quarter earnings release on Thursday (Feb. 27). The radio company said it expects first-quarter revenue to fall in the low single digits and forecasts full-year revenue will be flat compared to 2024.
The largest decline of the week came from Cumulus Media, which fell 20.0% on Friday and finished the week down 19.1% after the radio company released fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. Cumulus’ revenue fell 1.2% in the fourth quarter and was down 2.1% for the full year.
Strong earnings releases from Live Nation, CTS Eventim and Cloud Music clashed with a downturn in the market this week. The most notable release of the week came from Live Nation, which reported record revenue of $23.1 billion in 2024 and forecast a healthy stadium business in 2025.
Still, Live Nation shares fell 1.9% on Friday (Feb. 21) after Thursday’s earnings release and finished the week down 2.8% to $148.48. The stock had gained 19.7% in the first seven weeks of the year, however, and expectations for a strong quarterly report and 2025 outlook were likely priced into the shares. More telling is Live Nation’s 56.8% increase over the previous 52 weeks, suggesting that investors are convinced the company has a winning combination of concerts, ticketing, and sponsorships and advertisements.
A bevy of analysts upped their Live Nation price targets following the company’s earnings release on Thursday (Feb. 20), including Evercore ISI (to $180 from $160), JP Morgan (to $170 from $150), Jefferies (to $180 from $150) and Rosenblatt (to $174 from $146). Ahead of the company’s earnings report, Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $170 from $150 and Seaport Global Securities raised Live Nation shares to $170 from $157. A dissenting voice came from CFRA, which has a “sell” rating on Live Nation shares and this week increased its price target to $135 from $115.
Trending on Billboard
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) fell 2.9% to 2,674.34, marking its first decline in seven weeks and only its second weekly loss of 2025. Only six of the 20 stocks gained ground while 14 finished the week in negative territory. Even so, music stocks are performing well this year. Only four of the 20 stocks have lost value in 2025 and the BGMI has gained 25.9% year to date.
U.S. stocks cratered on Friday amidst a drop in consumer sentiment, an uptick in inflation expectations and worries the economy may be slowing. The Dow dropped 1.7%, the S&P 500 also fell 1.7% and the Nasdaq composite sank 2.2%. Summing up the market’s tenuous mood, Steve Cohen, CEO of hedge fund Point72, told the FII Priority Summit on Friday that tariffs, sharp cuts in government spending and slowing immigration will have negative consequences. “It may only last a year or so, but it’s definitely a period where I think the best gains have been had and wouldn’t surprise me to see a significant correction,” he said.
The best-performing music stock of the week was Chinese music streaming company Cloud Music, which jumped 18.1% on Friday and ended the week up 20% after the company’s 2024 earnings release on Thursday showed a 22% jump in music subscription revenue. At 170.70 HKD ($21.97), Cloud Music is up 52.1% year to date. Another Chinese music streamer, Tencent Music Entertainment, rose 5.6% to $14.40.
CTS Eventim shares rose 4.7% to 104.00 euros ($108.83) after the company announced record results for 2024 on Tuesday (Feb. 18). Consolidated revenue increased 19.1% to 2.81 billion euros ($2.94 billion) and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), a common measure of profitability, jumped 21.9% to 444.8 million euros ($465 million). Live entertainment revenue rose 17.6% to 1.97 billion euros ($2.06 billion) while ticketing revenue climbed 22.7% to 879.9 million euros ($921 million).
Spotify fell 4.8% to $607.36 while Warner Music Group dropped 2.9% to $35.26 and Universal Music Group was down 3.0% to 28.02 euros ($29.32). Sphere Entertainment Co., which will announce quarterly earnings on Feb. 28, lost 2.8% and sister company MSG Entertainment fell 5.0%.
Most K-pop stocks rose this week as South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 2.5%. YG Entertainment rose 12.0% to 57,900 ($40.30) following the announcement on Wednesday (Feb. 19) of BLACKPINK’s 10-city 2025 world tour that commences in July and stops in Seoul, Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Toronto, Paris, London, Milan, Barcelona and Tokyo. SM Entertainment shares rose 7.8% to 99,500 KRW ($69.25), bringing its year-to-date gain to 37.1%. JYP Entertainment rose 1.6% and HYBE fell 1.0%.
For more than a year, record labels and publishers have seen investors pour into streaming stocks — namely Spotify — while downplaying the potential benefits rights owners will accrue from rising subscription prices. Now, Universal Music Group (UMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) are getting some attention as analysts are optimistic about the terms of new licensing agreements Spotify reached with the companies.
WMG shares rose 10.9% to $36.20 a week after the company released fiscal first-quarter results. This week, the stock got a boost when Citi raised its WMG price target to $42 from $34 and upgraded the stock to a “buy” rating from “neutral.” As Morningstar explained last week, WMG is a “primary beneficiary of the ongoing growth” in the music industry. At $36.20, WMG shares have gained 17.0% in 2025 and are only slightly below their 52-week high of $36.64 set in February 2024. WMG shares fell 13.4% in 2024.
Trending on Billboard
At UMG, shares rose 7.1% to 28.89 euros ($30.32), the stock’s highest closing price since May 27, 2024. Morgan Stanley analysts have been making the case that UMG is undervalued given Spotify’s soaring share price and this week raised its UMG price target to 42 euros ($44.07) from 36 euros ($37.78). Recent licensing deals with Spotify and Amazon “increases our confidence that its subscription growth will accelerate” from approximately 5% at the start of 2025 to “closer to 15%” at the beginning of 2026, they wrote in a Monday (Feb. 10) investor note. After falling 4.2% in 2024, UMG shares are up 20.8% in 2025.
WMG and UMG were among the best performers on the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) this week. The BGMI rose 4.6% to a record 2,755.53, bringing its year-to-date gain to 29.7%. Only two stocks lost ground while one was unchanged and 17 posted gains for the week. The index outperformed the Nasdaq composite (up 2.6%), the S&P 500 (up 1.5%), the FTSE 100 (up 0.4%), China’s SSE Composite Index (up 1.3%) and South Korea’s KOSPI composite index (flat versus the previous week).
Live Nation reached an all-time high of $152.94 on Friday (Feb. 14) before closing at $153.76, up 3.7% for the week. Ahead of the concert promoter’s earnings results on Thursday (Feb. 20,) Wolfe Research increased its price target to $175 from $160 and Goldman Sachs raised it to $166 from $148.
Streaming services fared well, too. Spotify rose another 2.4% to $637.73 and reached a new all-time high of $652.63 on Thursday (Feb. 13). Fewer than seven weeks into 2025, Spotify shares have gained 36.7%. Elsewhere on the streaming front, Cloud Music rose 9.1% to 142.20 HKD ($18.01) and Tencent Music Entertainment gained 8.7% to $13.63.
Music streamer LiveOne had the week’s biggest loss after falling 20.5% to $0.93. On Thursday, the company announced that its revenue fell 6% in the fiscal third quarter. LiveOne also lowered revenue and earnings guidance for its full year, causing shares to end the day down 18.6%. The other streaming loser was Abu Dhabi-based Anghami, which fell 2.7% to $0.71.
Satellite radio broadcaster SiriusXM shares rose 6.6% to $27.11, bringing its year-to-date gain to 21.2%. This week, Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $27 from $25.
Most K-pop companies finished the week in positive territory. HYBE shares rose 5.8% and reached their highest mark since July 2023. SM Entertainment, which reported a 9% increase in revenue this week, increased 5.4%. JYP Entertainment improved 4.2% and YG Entertainment fell 1.3%.
Spotify led all music stocks this week with a 13.6% gain after its fourth-quarter earnings results on Tuesday (Feb. 4) showed that the company posted its first-ever net profit. The streamer’s share price reached an all-time high of $632.41 on Friday (Feb. 7) before closing at $622.99, slightly lower than its closing prices on Wednesday ($626.00) and Thursday ($625.87). Fewer than six weeks into 2025, the Swedish streaming company’s stock has risen 39.3%.
With 203.8 million shares outstanding, according to its 2024 annual report released this week, Spotify’s market capitalization briefly reached $128.9 billion. A week ago, Spotify was worth nearly as much as the three major music groups. As of Friday, after gaining another 13.6%, Spotify is worth more than Universal Music Group (UMG), Sony Music and Warner Music Group (WMG) combined.
Trending on Billboard
Guggenheim was among a host of analysts to increase its Spotify price target, raising the streaming company’s shares to $675 from $520 and increasing its forecast for 2025 operating income to 2.61 billion euros ($2.7 billion) from 2.46 billion euros ($2.54 billion). Others that raised their price targets for Spotify were Evercore ISI (to $700 from $500), Morgan Stanley (to $670 from $550), DA Davidson (to $680 from $350) and Deutsche Bank (to $700 from $550).
Led by Spotify, the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) rose 7.7% to a record 2,635.41, bringing its year-to-date gain to 24.0%. The index’s most valuable companies were among the 13 gainers while the seven companies that lost ground have relatively small market capitalizations. In contrast to music stocks’ gains, major indexes were muted this week. In the U.S., the Nasdaq composite index and S&P 500 fell 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 rose 0.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 3.0%. China’s SSE Composite Index was up 1.6%.
Chinese music streamer Cloud Music had the week’s second-best performance, rising 6.6% to 130.30 HKD ($16.73). SiriusXM was third-best after rising 6.0% to $25.44. Another Chinese music streaming company, Tencent Music Entertainment, improved 4.7% to $12.54. And K-pop companies all fared well: SM Entertainment was up 4.9%, HYBE improved 4.2% and JYP Entertainment rose 3.6%.
While record labels and publishers have benefitted from Spotify’s price increases, their stock prices haven’t followed the same trajectory. WMG gained 2.9% to $32.72 following its quarterly earnings report on Thursday (Feb. 6) and is up 5.5% year to date. Reservoir Media, which released earnings on Wednesday (Feb. 5) and raised its full-year guidance, closed the week down 4.2% to $7.96 and has lost 12.0% in 2025. UMG, which will announce its fourth-quarter earnings on March 6, rose 0.1% to $26.98 and is up 9.1% year-to-date.
MSG Entertainment gained 1.1% to $36.73. On Thursday (Feb. 6), the concert promoter reported that revenue increased 1% to $407.4 million and adjusted operating income improved 2% to $164 million in the fiscal second quarter ended December 31, 2024. Event-related revenue fell $22.5 million due to lower revenue from concerts and a drop in other live entertainment at the company’s venues.
LiveOne had the largest decline of the week, falling 19.3% to $1.17. The music streaming company will announce earnings on Feb. 14.
Spotify’s share price continues to soar in 2025 following a massive gain in 2024, making the music streaming company’s $109.3 billion market capitalization worth about the same as every standalone, publicly traded music company from which it licenses music combined — with nearly enough left over to include concert promoter Live Nation.
Based on closing prices Monday (Feb. 3), Universal Music Group has a market cap — the value of outstanding shares — of $51.1 billion, amounting to less than half of Spotify’s. The other standalone, publicly traded “multi-sector” music companies covering record labels and music publishers total another $27.8 billion: Warner Music Group ($16.6 billion), HYBE ($6.5 billion), JYP Entertainment ($1.8 billion), Believe ($1.5 billion), SM Entertainment ($1.3 billion), YG Entertainment ($646 million), Reservoir Media ($522 million) and Avex ($421 million). That brings the multi-sector aggregate market cap to $80.4 billion. If you add Live Nation’s $33.6 billion market cap to the multi-sector group, the combined market cap exceeds Spotify by just $4.7 billion.
Additionally, if you add the market cap of Sony Music – which is part of the Sony Corp. conglomerate and doesn’t trade as a standalone company – to UMG and WMG’s, the three major music groups’ aggregate market cap isn’t much more than Spotify’s. Importantly, if Sony Music was independent of Sony Corp, its value would be comparable to that of UMG. In the past four quarters, the two companies have had almost equal revenues on a dollar basis — $11.6 billion for UMG to $11.59 billion for Sony Music. Assuming the companies have similar margins and growth prospects, Sony Music’s market cap could — but would not necessarily — equal UMG’s $51.1 billion. Add WMG, and the three majors have a combined market cap of $118.8 billion — just $9.5 billion more than Spotify’s market cap at the end of trading on Monday.
Trending on Billboard
This imbalance between Spotify and music companies’ values hasn’t always existed. A move into podcasting and a pandemic-led growth spurt pushed Spotify’s stock above $380 in February 2021. The frothy times didn’t last long, however. Investors who were previously attracted to streaming companies’ high growth rates eventually demanded more financial discipline. When Spotify shares fell to an all-time low of $69.29 on Nov. 4, 2022, its roughly $13.3 billion market cap was less than a third of UMG’s $40.9 billion. But layoffs and price increases turbocharged Spotify’s financial statements and sent its share price into a new stratosphere. In 2023, the company laid off roughly a quarter of its full-time staff and implemented the first of two price increases. In 2024, Spotify’s share price rose 138.1%. Last month, it jumped another 22.6%.
Today, Spotify’s market value puts it in a rarefied air amongst entertainment companies. Netflix — which has 302 million subscribers globally to Spotify’s 252 million, and much higher prices — currently has a market cap of $418.8 billion. Walt Disney, which spans streaming, cable TV networks and theme parks, is worth $206.1 billion. Sony Corp, a huge company that includes games, movies, TV and hardware, has a market cap of $133.7 billion. Telecommunications giant Comcast, owner of NBCUniversal and cable company Xfinity, is worth $126.7 billion. Spotify is worth more than Warner Bros. Discovery ($24.9 billion), sports gambling company DraftKings ($20.2 billion) and video game companies Nintendo ($87.6 billion), Roblox ($46.4 billion) and Electronic Arts ($32.2 billion).