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This analysis is part of Billboard’s music technology newsletter Machine Learnings. Sign up for Machine Learnings, and other Billboard newsletters for free here.
In an interview in 2023, Techstars managing director Bob Moczydlowsky told Billboard, “If Streaming 1.0 was about making all the music play, Streaming 2.0 should be about being able to play with all the music.”
In 2025, that statement feels prescient. Bloomberg reported on Feb. 14 that Spotify’s long anticipated superfan tier will likely roll out later this year and include extra features like high-fidelity audio, access to concert tickets and song remixing tools for an additional fee on top of Spotify premium.
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Also this month, the AI remixing app MashApp launched on the Apple App Store, offering users the ability to quickly and easily mash up selected songs from the Universal Music Group, Warner Music Group, Sony Music and Kobalt catalogs. Similarly, Hook, a competitor, just announced a new partnership with indie distributor Too Lost to license its works for Hook’s library of mashable, customizable songs. (Hook also previously struck a deal with Downtown for its library of music.)
Even though remixes of songs have dominated TikTok and other short-form video apps for years — and were all over SoundCloud and YouTube before that — participating in the fun of creating them has had barriers to entry. A user would need to learn how to use a digital audio workstation (DAW), like Garageband or ProTools, to create a good-sounding rework of a song, and they’d likely need the stems (the individual instrument tracks that make up a song), too. Now, with AI-powered stem separation and remix apps, there’s almost nothing left standing between a music fan and getting creative with their own derivative mashups.
But copyright law, the longtime nemesis of remixing, remains a major obstacle. For years, record labels and publishers have been playing an ever-expanding game of whack-a-mole with unauthorized remixes online, trying to retain control over their sound recordings. In the TikTok age, unauthorized remixes have gotten even further out of control as sped-up, slowed-down and other types of reworkings gained prominence. But it seems some companies are now taking the “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” philosophy by uploading officially sanctioned sped-up, slowed-down, a cappella and other alternate renditions of their work to streaming services.
Music companies, sensing the business opportunity, are also licensing to Hook and MashApp. While both have properly licensed libraries of songs to work with, these apps still leave a lot to be desired for users today. MashApp only has selected songs licensed from the three majors and Kobalt — among the recommended tracks are “I Want It That Way” by the Backstreet Boys, “Dreams” by Fleetwood Mac and “Tequila” by Dan + Shay. Hook has a similar problem — its top songs include “Buy The World” by Kendrick Lamar, Mike WiLL Made-It and Future, “Fall Back” by Lithe, “fisherrr” by Cash Cobain and Bay Swag, and more. If you look up a major artist on either of these apps, odds are they either have only a few of their tracks licensed, or don’t have their catalog at all.
For these apps to succeed, they must get deals done with, essentially, every rights holder on the recorded music and publishing sides to offer a comprehensive catalog — and if you look at the songwriter credits of any major pop or rap song, you’ll realize how challenging getting all of these parties to agree could be. Just one songwriter or company could hold up the licensing of a top song.
Spotify has already done the hard part by getting all the music on the service during what Moczydlowsky calls the “Streaming 1.0” period, but significant challenges still remain ahead if it wants to integrate these much more playful 2.0 remix features. The top streaming service made an enemy of the National Music Publishers’ Association (NMPA), the trade organization representing the vast majority of publishers in the U.S., in March 2024 by decreasing the royalties paid to publishers and songwriters in the U.S. on premium-tier streams by about 40%. Known colloquially as the “bundling” issue, Spotify argued that adding audiobooks into its premium subscriptions meant it could divide the royalty pool between music and book publishers.
The NMPA’s president and CEO, David Israelite, said Spotify “declared war on songwriters,” and to fight back, the NMPA launched a series of attacks, including sending Spotify a cease and desist letter warning that if it launched tools to “speed up, mash up and otherwise edit songs from their favorite artists… without the proper licenses in place from our members,” it “may constitute additional direct infringement.”
In January, Spotify’s standing with publishers seemed to be getting better. The streamer forged direct deals with Warner Music Group and Universal Music Group, which included improved remuneration on the publishing side. At the time, I noted in my analysis of these deals that Spotify likely came back to the negotiating table with publishers because the streamer knows it needs the publishers to voluntarily license their catalogs to support these upcoming features, including remixing. Still, that doesn’t mean all publishers, or the NMPA, have buried the hatchet.
On Feb. 4, the NMPA issued 2,500 podcast takedowns against Spotify, in a move that signaled that the NMPA will continue to hold a grudge. (Spotify called this move “a press stunt.”) Press stunt or not, Spotify needs the rest of the NMPA members on its side to make a remix tool with a full working library. Otherwise, they’ll be forced to launch with a piecemeal catalog like their start-up competitors.
But if anyone is poised to take over this budding remix market, it’s likely Spotify, given its pre-existing relationships and significant resources. Still, it remains to be seen how much users will even take to this type of feature. Is remixing the next big thing, or just another fad?
While Spotify’s Billions Club contains an exclusive group of artists who’ve had songs reach one billion streams, there’s an even more elite crop of African artists who are members. “Essence” collaborators Wizkid and Tems have both reached this milestone, but not for their Billboard Hot 100 top 10 smash, and they both did it alongside […]
Tems has become the first African female artist to hit one billion streams on Spotify with Future‘s “WAIT FOR U,” also featuring Drake, Spotify has confirmed. “WAIT FOR U” samples Tems’ “Higher” from her 2020 EP For Broken Ears and was featured on Future’s 2022 Billboard 200-topping album I NEVER LIKED YOU. The song hit […]
For more than a year, record labels and publishers have seen investors pour into streaming stocks — namely Spotify — while downplaying the potential benefits rights owners will accrue from rising subscription prices. Now, Universal Music Group (UMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) are getting some attention as analysts are optimistic about the terms of new licensing agreements Spotify reached with the companies.
WMG shares rose 10.9% to $36.20 a week after the company released fiscal first-quarter results. This week, the stock got a boost when Citi raised its WMG price target to $42 from $34 and upgraded the stock to a “buy” rating from “neutral.” As Morningstar explained last week, WMG is a “primary beneficiary of the ongoing growth” in the music industry. At $36.20, WMG shares have gained 17.0% in 2025 and are only slightly below their 52-week high of $36.64 set in February 2024. WMG shares fell 13.4% in 2024.
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At UMG, shares rose 7.1% to 28.89 euros ($30.32), the stock’s highest closing price since May 27, 2024. Morgan Stanley analysts have been making the case that UMG is undervalued given Spotify’s soaring share price and this week raised its UMG price target to 42 euros ($44.07) from 36 euros ($37.78). Recent licensing deals with Spotify and Amazon “increases our confidence that its subscription growth will accelerate” from approximately 5% at the start of 2025 to “closer to 15%” at the beginning of 2026, they wrote in a Monday (Feb. 10) investor note. After falling 4.2% in 2024, UMG shares are up 20.8% in 2025.
WMG and UMG were among the best performers on the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) this week. The BGMI rose 4.6% to a record 2,755.53, bringing its year-to-date gain to 29.7%. Only two stocks lost ground while one was unchanged and 17 posted gains for the week. The index outperformed the Nasdaq composite (up 2.6%), the S&P 500 (up 1.5%), the FTSE 100 (up 0.4%), China’s SSE Composite Index (up 1.3%) and South Korea’s KOSPI composite index (flat versus the previous week).
Live Nation reached an all-time high of $152.94 on Friday (Feb. 14) before closing at $153.76, up 3.7% for the week. Ahead of the concert promoter’s earnings results on Thursday (Feb. 20,) Wolfe Research increased its price target to $175 from $160 and Goldman Sachs raised it to $166 from $148.
Streaming services fared well, too. Spotify rose another 2.4% to $637.73 and reached a new all-time high of $652.63 on Thursday (Feb. 13). Fewer than seven weeks into 2025, Spotify shares have gained 36.7%. Elsewhere on the streaming front, Cloud Music rose 9.1% to 142.20 HKD ($18.01) and Tencent Music Entertainment gained 8.7% to $13.63.
Music streamer LiveOne had the week’s biggest loss after falling 20.5% to $0.93. On Thursday, the company announced that its revenue fell 6% in the fiscal third quarter. LiveOne also lowered revenue and earnings guidance for its full year, causing shares to end the day down 18.6%. The other streaming loser was Abu Dhabi-based Anghami, which fell 2.7% to $0.71.
Satellite radio broadcaster SiriusXM shares rose 6.6% to $27.11, bringing its year-to-date gain to 21.2%. This week, Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $27 from $25.
Most K-pop companies finished the week in positive territory. HYBE shares rose 5.8% and reached their highest mark since July 2023. SM Entertainment, which reported a 9% increase in revenue this week, increased 5.4%. JYP Entertainment improved 4.2% and YG Entertainment fell 1.3%.
Spotify led all music stocks this week with a 13.6% gain after its fourth-quarter earnings results on Tuesday (Feb. 4) showed that the company posted its first-ever net profit. The streamer’s share price reached an all-time high of $632.41 on Friday (Feb. 7) before closing at $622.99, slightly lower than its closing prices on Wednesday ($626.00) and Thursday ($625.87). Fewer than six weeks into 2025, the Swedish streaming company’s stock has risen 39.3%.
With 203.8 million shares outstanding, according to its 2024 annual report released this week, Spotify’s market capitalization briefly reached $128.9 billion. A week ago, Spotify was worth nearly as much as the three major music groups. As of Friday, after gaining another 13.6%, Spotify is worth more than Universal Music Group (UMG), Sony Music and Warner Music Group (WMG) combined.
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Guggenheim was among a host of analysts to increase its Spotify price target, raising the streaming company’s shares to $675 from $520 and increasing its forecast for 2025 operating income to 2.61 billion euros ($2.7 billion) from 2.46 billion euros ($2.54 billion). Others that raised their price targets for Spotify were Evercore ISI (to $700 from $500), Morgan Stanley (to $670 from $550), DA Davidson (to $680 from $350) and Deutsche Bank (to $700 from $550).
Led by Spotify, the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) rose 7.7% to a record 2,635.41, bringing its year-to-date gain to 24.0%. The index’s most valuable companies were among the 13 gainers while the seven companies that lost ground have relatively small market capitalizations. In contrast to music stocks’ gains, major indexes were muted this week. In the U.S., the Nasdaq composite index and S&P 500 fell 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 rose 0.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 3.0%. China’s SSE Composite Index was up 1.6%.
Chinese music streamer Cloud Music had the week’s second-best performance, rising 6.6% to 130.30 HKD ($16.73). SiriusXM was third-best after rising 6.0% to $25.44. Another Chinese music streaming company, Tencent Music Entertainment, improved 4.7% to $12.54. And K-pop companies all fared well: SM Entertainment was up 4.9%, HYBE improved 4.2% and JYP Entertainment rose 3.6%.
While record labels and publishers have benefitted from Spotify’s price increases, their stock prices haven’t followed the same trajectory. WMG gained 2.9% to $32.72 following its quarterly earnings report on Thursday (Feb. 6) and is up 5.5% year to date. Reservoir Media, which released earnings on Wednesday (Feb. 5) and raised its full-year guidance, closed the week down 4.2% to $7.96 and has lost 12.0% in 2025. UMG, which will announce its fourth-quarter earnings on March 6, rose 0.1% to $26.98 and is up 9.1% year-to-date.
MSG Entertainment gained 1.1% to $36.73. On Thursday (Feb. 6), the concert promoter reported that revenue increased 1% to $407.4 million and adjusted operating income improved 2% to $164 million in the fiscal second quarter ended December 31, 2024. Event-related revenue fell $22.5 million due to lower revenue from concerts and a drop in other live entertainment at the company’s venues.
LiveOne had the largest decline of the week, falling 19.3% to $1.17. The music streaming company will announce earnings on Feb. 14.
For two decades, the price of a music streaming service was frozen at $9.99 per month. Prices only began rising in 2022, leading to improved economics for both streaming companies and rights holders. Now, streaming platforms are closer to taking another leap forward in monetization.
The next phase of the music business, Spotify CEO Daniel Ek said during the company’s earnings call on Wednesday (Feb. 5), is tailoring experiences to “different subgroups” such as lucrative superfans. In fact, Spotify has already developed something for these subscribers, and Ek is currently testing the unnamed product. “I’m personally super excited about this one, and this is a product I’ve been waiting on for quite some time as a super fan of music,” he said. “And I’m playing around with it now, and it’s really exciting.”
Targeting superfans is part of Spotify’s current focus on launching new products. Ek called 2025 “the year of accelerated execution,” meaning the company “can pick up the pace dramatically when it comes to our product velocity.” Exactly how these new products will be monetized and ultimately impact artists and rights holders is unknown. But Alex Norström, Spotify’s co-president/chief business officer, hinted at both higher price points and an a la carte approach when he told analysts that “future tiering” and “selling add-ons to our existing subscribers” are two of the ways Spotify thinks about increasing average revenue per user.
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Recently updated licensing agreements with Universal Music Group (UMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) also hint at the pending arrival of superfan products and additional pricing tiers. In announcing renewed deals with Spotify, both UMG and WMG cited their agreements’ ability to enable new paid subscription tiers and exclusive content bundles.
Sony Music and independent distributors and publishers have not announced a similar renewed agreement, however, and new licensing agreements with all of them would be necessary for the kind of product Spotify has described, says Vickie Nauman of digital music advisory and consultancy CrossBorderWorks. “If there is a superfan layer that is built around sound recordings, then it’s going to require licensing with revenue share between platform, publishers, labels and PROs,” she says.
Exactly what Spotify’s superfan product will look like and require from artists remains to be seen. Nauman hopes Spotify will learn from past mistakes. “I’m not sure what the killer features for a superfan might look like, but whether niche apps or DSPs, this cannot require the artist to do much if anything,” she says. “We have a long history of failure of initiatives requiring artists to post on social, port their fans to a new app and deliver custom content, and this simply doesn’t work. Artists want to be artists.”
New licensing deals also open the way for a more expensive, high-resolution audio tier which Spotify first began teasing in 2021. “Of course, the success of launching with a limited content pool depends on what’s on offer with the new service, but there’s not a big downside to launching a new service that has limited hi-res music, where the selection of music is highly likely to increase over time,” says digital music veteran Dick Huey of consultancy Toolshed. “I doubt that adding hi-res music to Spotify will be particularly controversial, in particular because they’ll bring an upsell to labels, that of higher subscription costs. Also, because other services already offer hi-res music.”
Whatever the final product, streaming services’ targeting of superfans — if history is any precedent, competitors will follow Spotify’s lead — will produce incremental revenue for Spotify and more royalties for creators and rights owners. The new additions could also help reduce artists and songwriters’ frustrations about the economics of streaming music that have plagued Spotify. As for subscribers who opt into the new offerings, they’ll get more features and artist access in return for higher fees. In short, these new iterations of Spotify should create a win-win-win for all parties in the equation.
Spotify and Warner Music Group have signed a new multi-year agreement covering both recorded music and music publishing, following Spotify’s similar deal with Universal Music Group earlier this year. The partnership, announced today (Feb. 6), aims to drive innovation and increase the value of music for artists, songwriters and fans.
The agreement focuses on advancing audio-visual streaming, expanding music and video catalogs, and, notably, introducing new paid subscription tiers with exclusive content bundles. It also reinforces “artist-centric” royalty models that reward artists for attracting and engaging audiences. Additionally, the new publishing deal introduces a direct licensing model with Warner Chappell Music in several countries, including the U.S.
In a statement, WMG CEO Robert Kyncl emphasized the collaboration’s role in expanding the music ecosystem and delivering value to artists and songwriters.
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“It’s a big step forward in our vision for greater alignment between rights holders and streaming services,” Kyncl said. “Together with Spotify, we look forward to increasing the value of music, as we drive growth, impact, and innovation.”
Spotify CEO Daniel Ek highlighted 2025 as a pivotal year for Spotify’s innovation, “and our partners at Warner Music Group share our commitment to rapid innovation and sustained investment in our leading music offerings. Together, we’re pushing the boundaries of what’s possible for audiences worldwide—making paid music subscriptions more appealing while supporting artists and songwriters alike.”
During Warner Music’s August 2024 earnings call, Kyncl addressed the relationship between labels and digital service providers and refuted the notion that they are entrenched adversaries. “I know that investor attention has recently been focused on the dynamics between labels and DSPs, with some speculating that we’re adversaries playing a zero-sum game,” he said. “That’s simply not the case. We’re actively engaged with our partners around ways to drive growth for all of us.”
WMG announced its new pact with Spotify moments before reporting results for is fiscal first quarter, which saw a dip in revenue that it attributed to the termination of its distribution agreement with BMG, among other factors. The label group on Thursday also announced that it had agreed to purchase a controlling stake in Tempo Music Investment, a catalog company that owns rights to songs by Wiz Khalifa, Florida Georgia Line and others, in a deal sources say is worth several hundred million dollars.
The National Music Publishers’ Association (NMPA) announced on Tuesday (Feb. 4) that it would issue takedown notices to Spotify for 2,500 podcast episodes on the platform that allegedly contain “unlicensed musical works” from 19 NMPA member publishers.
“Spotify has thousands of unlicensed songs in its podcasts, which it has done nothing to remedy. This takedown action comes as no surprise, we have warned of this issue for some time,” says NMPA president and CEO David Israelite of the takedown notices. According to the NMPA, this is just the start of the takedown requests, and the demands will continue to roll out.
This is the latest of many retaliatory actions the NMPA has taken against Spotify since last March, when Spotify significantly cut payments to NMPA’s members for premium subscriptions. By adding audiobooks into its premium subscription tiers, Spotify argued it qualified for a discounted royalty rate, known as “bundle,” given it would now have to pay for books and music from the same price tag that was once just for music. Israelite said at the time that he would “declare war” on Spotify for this move, and launched a number of actions to fight back.
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This included sending cease and desist notices for podcast and video content on its platform that were allegedly infringing on music IP; a legislative proposal, asking for the overhaul of the statutory license; complaints to the FTC and nine state attorneys general; and more. Around the same time, the Mechanical Licensing Collective (MLC) also fought back by filing a lawsuit against Spotify for the move to bundle premium subscriptions, calling it “unlawful.”
On Sunday, Jan. 26, the Spotify bundling issue was brought back into the headlines when Universal Music Group announced a new direct deal with Spotify which included changes both to the recorded music and publishing royalty rates. This marked the first direct deal between Spotify and a publisher since the passage of the Music Modernization Act (MMA), and sources close to the deal say that the agreement included improved remuneration for UMG’s publishing company, Universal Music Publishing Group, and its songwriters.
Still, all other publishers, most of which are members of the NMPA, remain on the baseline bundle rate. The NMPA told Billboard at the time that the deal was “good news for the entire industry” and that “a rising tide lifts all boats, and this signals that Spotify is coming back to the table,” but the organization also added it had no plans to stop any of the actions it had already set in motion against Spotify, and neither did the MLC.
A few days later, on Jan. 29, the MLC’s lawsuit against Spotify was dismissed, with a federal judge saying that Spotify’s move to bundling was supported by “unambiguous” regulations. The judge is not giving the MLC a chance to refile and said the law is clear. Still, if the MLC wants to, it can challenge the ruling at the federal appeals court.
These takedown requests make it clear that the NMPA is not ready to bury the hatchet with Spotify. Among the 2,500 takedown requests are podcasts that allegedly contain unlicensed musical works from publishers like ABKCO, Anthem Entertainment, Big Machine Music, BMG, Concord Music Publishing, Downtown Music Publishing, Hipgnosis Songs Group, Kobalt, Mayimba Music, peermusic, Primary Wave Music, Reservoir, The Royalty Network, Inc., Sony Music Publishing, Spirit Music Group, Ultra Music Publishing, Universal Music Publishing Group, Warner Chappell Music, and Wixen Music Publishing.
Israelite adds: “Podcasts are a growing source of revenue for songwriters and publishers, and it is essential that podcasts provide lawfully produced entertainment. This is not hard to do, and Spotify knows, and has known, how to fix this problem for their users. We hope podcast hosts will stand up for their fellow creators and demand that Spotify do better. Spotify will stop at nothing to undervalue songwriters on behalf of its bottom line. Look no further than its recent bundling scheme and its ill-conceived appeal of songwriters’ rate increase in CRB III. We will not stop until the platform fixes its podcast problem, and all other areas where songwriters are not earning what they deserve.”
Spotify added 35 million monthly active users in the fourth quarter last year — the most ever in a single quarter — bringing the total number of people streaming on the Swedish music and audiobook platform to 675 million, the company reported on Tuesday. Premium or paying subscribers totaled 263 million as of the end […]
Spotify’s share price continues to soar in 2025 following a massive gain in 2024, making the music streaming company’s $109.3 billion market capitalization worth about the same as every standalone, publicly traded music company from which it licenses music combined — with nearly enough left over to include concert promoter Live Nation.
Based on closing prices Monday (Feb. 3), Universal Music Group has a market cap — the value of outstanding shares — of $51.1 billion, amounting to less than half of Spotify’s. The other standalone, publicly traded “multi-sector” music companies covering record labels and music publishers total another $27.8 billion: Warner Music Group ($16.6 billion), HYBE ($6.5 billion), JYP Entertainment ($1.8 billion), Believe ($1.5 billion), SM Entertainment ($1.3 billion), YG Entertainment ($646 million), Reservoir Media ($522 million) and Avex ($421 million). That brings the multi-sector aggregate market cap to $80.4 billion. If you add Live Nation’s $33.6 billion market cap to the multi-sector group, the combined market cap exceeds Spotify by just $4.7 billion.
Additionally, if you add the market cap of Sony Music – which is part of the Sony Corp. conglomerate and doesn’t trade as a standalone company – to UMG and WMG’s, the three major music groups’ aggregate market cap isn’t much more than Spotify’s. Importantly, if Sony Music was independent of Sony Corp, its value would be comparable to that of UMG. In the past four quarters, the two companies have had almost equal revenues on a dollar basis — $11.6 billion for UMG to $11.59 billion for Sony Music. Assuming the companies have similar margins and growth prospects, Sony Music’s market cap could — but would not necessarily — equal UMG’s $51.1 billion. Add WMG, and the three majors have a combined market cap of $118.8 billion — just $9.5 billion more than Spotify’s market cap at the end of trading on Monday.
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This imbalance between Spotify and music companies’ values hasn’t always existed. A move into podcasting and a pandemic-led growth spurt pushed Spotify’s stock above $380 in February 2021. The frothy times didn’t last long, however. Investors who were previously attracted to streaming companies’ high growth rates eventually demanded more financial discipline. When Spotify shares fell to an all-time low of $69.29 on Nov. 4, 2022, its roughly $13.3 billion market cap was less than a third of UMG’s $40.9 billion. But layoffs and price increases turbocharged Spotify’s financial statements and sent its share price into a new stratosphere. In 2023, the company laid off roughly a quarter of its full-time staff and implemented the first of two price increases. In 2024, Spotify’s share price rose 138.1%. Last month, it jumped another 22.6%.
Today, Spotify’s market value puts it in a rarefied air amongst entertainment companies. Netflix — which has 302 million subscribers globally to Spotify’s 252 million, and much higher prices — currently has a market cap of $418.8 billion. Walt Disney, which spans streaming, cable TV networks and theme parks, is worth $206.1 billion. Sony Corp, a huge company that includes games, movies, TV and hardware, has a market cap of $133.7 billion. Telecommunications giant Comcast, owner of NBCUniversal and cable company Xfinity, is worth $126.7 billion. Spotify is worth more than Warner Bros. Discovery ($24.9 billion), sports gambling company DraftKings ($20.2 billion) and video game companies Nintendo ($87.6 billion), Roblox ($46.4 billion) and Electronic Arts ($32.2 billion).