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Venezuelan singer/songwriter and producer NOREH has signed a record deal with 5020 Records, Billboard Español can exclusively announce Wednesday (Sep. 11).
“We are extremely pleased to welcome NOREH as a new member of the 5020 Records family,” Rafa Arcaute, president of 5020 Records, says in a press release. “His innovative approach to music and his ability to connect with audiences on a deep level make him the perfect addition to our roster of artists. We are excited about the opportunity to support his artistic development and help him achieve even greater success.”
Featured in our monthly column for emerging artists On the Radar Latin last February, when he played his first concert in the United States, NOREH has been rising in the Latin music scene since 2020, when he debuted as an independent artist with the album Asocial. This was followed by the live album Nada Íntimo (2021) and Mucho TXT (2023), an eclectic LP that included urban music, ballads, bolero, salsa and bossa nova.
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His latest release is BALADAS TATUADAS VOL. 1, a deeply personal EP launched in March this year, in which he reflects on the ups and downs of his life while exploring themes of melancholy.
“NOREH represents 5020’s artistic vision, anchored in originality, versatility and creative honesty. We couldn’t be prouder to welcome him to the family,” says Bruno Duarte, co-president of 5020 Records.
Adds NOREH: “Being part of 5020 is exciting because, like me, they believe in daring songs with soul […] I hope to live up to the other artists in the roster; I am Venezuelan and I bring with me my people, who have brought me here, and I am sure that we will all be a great team.”
The terms of the contract were not specified.
The artist, who has collaborated with established names like Jay Wheeler, Nacho, CNCO, and Servando & Florentino, is currently in the midst of his Baladas Tatuadas Tour, which has taken him through his native Venezuela, parts of the U.S., Spain and South America.
The recorded music market in Europe is at risk of falling behind other global regions unless regulators enforce tougher protections for artists, creators and rightsholders, according to a new report from international labels trade body IFPI.
In Europe, music sales grew to over $8 billion in 2023, representing more than a quarter of global revenues (28.1%) and maintaining the continent’s long-held status as the second largest region in the world for recorded music sales behind the U.S. and Canada, according to IFPI data.
Europe’s prominent position is coming under threat, however, from other music markets that are growing at faster rates, states IFPI’s first-ever report focused specifically on recorded music in the European Union, published Tuesday (Sept. 10).
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Last year, music sales among the 27 members of the European Union trading block — which the U.K. exited in 2020 — grew by 8.7% to 5.2 billion euros ($5.7 billion), says IFPI. While that places the EU below only the U.S. in total revenue terms, several other international markets are significantly outpacing its growth rate thanks to the widespread global adoption of music streaming services.
Examples cited by IFPI include China, which grew music sales by more than 25% to 1.3 billion euro ($1.4 billion) in 2023; Sub-Saharan Africa, up 25% to 85 million euros ($93 million); Mexico, up 18% to 454 million euros ($500 million); and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which climbed 14% to 102 million euro ($112 million).
Although all of those territories are developing from far lower bases than mature EU markets such as France and Germany — and all have some way to go before they come close to surpassing EU music sales — IFPI said their rapid growth represents “warning signs” that the region is facing strong competition from its global competitors. Notably, some of those fast-growing music markets were virtually non-existent just over a decade ago.
The report, which is titled “Music in the EU: A Global Opportunity,” comes three months after European Parliament elections and ahead of the unveiling of the new European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, which is expected to take place later this month.
The new cohort of Brussels politicians will be responsible for monitoring and enforcing already passed EU legislation such as the Digital Services Act, Digital Markets Act and the AI Act, which all impact the music business to varying degrees, in some instances significantly.
“The EU is a vitally important place for music,” said IFPI CEO Victoria Oakley in a statement. “However, the data in this report shows us that other parts of the world are developing and growing rapidly and the EU risks falling behind.”
To ensure that the EU’s music market stays competitive, Oakley called on European policymakers to provide “legal certainty and protection for music rightsholders, supporting the development of responsible and ethical AI and creating a competitive playing field on which today’s dynamic music sector can evolve.”
“Today, European music faces great risk but also great opportunity,” Oakley continued. “How policymakers address these issues will help determine its future.”
An accompanying press release from IFPI said its research sets out how policymakers can help “secure a positive future for music at what is a pivotal time for music in Europe” amidst rising global competition.The report notes that when adjusted for inflation, recorded music revenue in the EU last year was only 61% of where they were in 2001, the music industry’s revenue peak.
Specific areas in which IFPI says policymakers can support creators and rightsholders include effective implementation of the EU’s AI Act, which passed earlier this year, and upholding existing EU copyright laws preventing the use of copyright-protected works and music from being used for training AI systems without prior consent. AI developers must also maintain and provide records of the materials used in training and developing generative AI models that enable rightsholders to exercise and enforce their rights, says IFPI.
When it comes to individual EU markets, the report highlights the continued strong performance of domestic acts in their home countries. In the 22 EU markets where IFPI collects yearly chart data, on average, 60% of the Top 10s were tracks by domestic artists in 2023, compared to only 47% in non-EU markets.
EU markets fared less well in terms of top 10 global chart exports, which were once again dominated by U.S. artists like Miley Cyrus, SZA and Taylor Swift last year, though Latin and Central American artists, most notably from Columbia and Puerto Rico, also performed well.
Concord Records and Fantasy Records have merged, their parent company Concord Label Group announced Tuesday (Sept. 10). The combined label will be called Concord Records.
The label will be headed up by co-presidents Margi Cheske, who was formerly president of Fantasy Records, and Mark Williams, who previously served as interim president of both Concord Records and Rounder Records (now led by Stephanie Hudacek). Both are based in L.A. and report to Concord Label Group CEO Tom Becci.
While leading Fantasy Records, Cheske built a roster that includes Nathaniel Rateliff & The Night Sweats, Allison Russell, James Taylor, Seether, Tedeschi Trucks Band, Lake Street Dive, Valerie June, Diiv, Lucius, LS Dunes, Taking Back Sunday, Marcus King Band, Grace Potter, Devon Gilfillian and Tanya Tucker. Prior to that, she was senior vp of marketing at Concord.
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In his prior role as interim president at both Concord and Rounder Records, Williams shepherded the release of music by artists including Sierra Ferrell, Billy Strings and The Revivalists and signed acts including Thirty Seconds To Mars, John Vincent III, Bella White, Amythyst Kiah, Daffo, Nitefire, Luke Tyler Shelton and Spacey Jane.
Cheske and Williams met while both were working at Virgin Records, where Cheske was The Smashing Pumpkins’ product manager and Williams was in A&R. Williams boasts a 44-year history in the business and previously founded Outpost Recordings before joining Interscope in 2001 and Columbia in 2010.
The new Concord label’s roster includes esperanza spalding, Lindsey Sterling, Nathaniel Rateliff & the Night Sweats, Taking Back Sunday, Seether, The Offspring and Thirty Seconds To Mars, along with emerging acts like Russell, Vincent and Matt Berninger.
Along with the announcement comes the reveal of a new Concord Records logo.
“In a music landscape where radical change has become the norm, it is vital that labels position themselves to manage complex challenges deftly,” said Becci in a statement. “This merger allows Concord to best utilize our global platform while maintaining the boutique level of service artists have come to expect. I know Mark and Margi share this notion, and their combined resources, alongside their complementary skill sets, will be a real benefit to the artists we serve.”
Added Williams, “Both Concord and Fantasy Records have always pursued artists with a unique vision and story to tell; the combined Concord Records will have an environment where those creative visions will be nurtured and supported.”
“This merger will allow us to better maximize our resources in service of those visions,” said Cheske. “Ultimately, this means a much more global, interconnected approach—allowing us, in concert with our incredible roster of artists, to bring their music to audiences around the world.”
The merger of the Fantasy and Concord labels is just the latest among several recent changes at the label group. Becci, who joined as CEO in August 2023, has previously restructured parts of the company, including by naming Hudacek president at Rounder Records and making changes to executive leadership in operations, marketing, and data analysis and streaming.
In a previous interview with Billboard, Becci alluded to the merger by calling the appointments of Cheske and Williams “a formidable frontline duo that can deliver on both new and developing artists,” adding, “They were swimming in the same pond, and I think together they’re going to own the pond.”
Universal Music Group is revving up its Use Your Voice voter education campaign to mobilize eligible voters ahead of election day on Nov. 5. This year’s efforts range from a digital content series outlining important issues, an outreach program targeting HBCU’s and a get-out-the-vote initiative aimed at driving voting registration — and then ensuring people can get to the polls.
Use Your Voice, which launched its first campaign in 2020, is supported by three UMG entities: All Together Now Foundation, the Task Force for Meaningful Change and °1824, the company’s creative marketing division. For this election season, UYV will provide information and resources to help power the work of partners including the ACLU, BallotReady, HeadCount, the NAACP, National Coalition of Black Civic Participation, the National Council for Negro Women (NCNW), the Voto Latino Foundation, When We All Vote and Xceleader.
Susan Mazo, evp and chief impact officer of UMG, said that “since we started the program in 2020, it has helped tens of thousands of voters get to the polls and vote with confidence. This year, it will do so again through the work of our colleagues, our passionate artists, songwriters and labels, and our incredible voter resource partner organizations.”
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One such partner, HeadCount, will work alongside UMG for Use Your Voice and Vote About It, a short-form digital content series taking a much-need look at issues that voters may see on their local ballots. The initiative includes a voter hub with information, resources and digital tools, plus there’s a corresponding tote bag sold by Social Goods benefiting HeadCount. UMG is also supporting HeadCount’s Vote HBCU ‘Say It Louder’ Tour of 10 campuses with the goal of registering more than 10,000 students to vote. The program, built in partnership with Xceleader, and will collaborate with UMG to amplify messaging around National Voter Registration Day, coming up on Sept 17.
This year, HeadCount has also partnered with artists from UMG’s labels including AJR, Ariana Grande, Barenaked Ladies, Billie Eilish, Clairo, Chappell Roan, Chelsea Cutler, Em Beihold, Glass Animals, Gracie Abrams, Hootie & the Blowfish, Maggie Rogers, Mt. Joy, Noah Kahan, Olivia Rodrigo, Rapsody and Remi Wolf, among others.
“As we head into this pivotal election, our partnership with Universal Music Group through the ‘Use Your Voice’ campaign is about more than just registering voters,” said HeadCount executive director Lucille Wenegieme. “Together, we’re making sure that every voice is not just heard, but impossible to ignore. At HeadCount, we partner with organizations that see the value of a multi-pronged approach to civic engagement to ensure we are reaching as many voters as possible – this is no different. We are so grateful for UMG’s strategic support during this election cycle. Together, we’re inspiring a new generation to actively participate in shaping their future.”
Additionally, UMG’s °1824 is producing a digital content series called By the Numbers targeting young people and possible first-time voters to check their registration status and inform them on their potential impact on election results. BallotReady and UYV are also jamming on a series of co-branded assets urging users to make a fully-informed voting plan.
UMG’s Task Force for Meaningful Change unveiled its Pull Up to the Polls initiative providing resources including a plan to provide 15,000 ride share codes to voters through NAACP, NCNW and When We All Vote. TFMC is also working with Voto Latino Foundation with the goal of registering over 7,200 eligible voters, and will work with Black Voters Matter, the National Coalition of Black Civic Engagement/Black Women’s Roundtable and others to mobilize and educate voters ahead of Nov. 5.
“The NAACP is proud to work with UMG in ensuring that democracy works, for everybody. Black voices matter, and we know that when our communities Pull up to the Polls, we’re heard,” said Dominik Whitehead, NAACP svp of campaigns and mobilization. “That’s why partnerships like these are so important in bringing the resources and tools necessary to ensure that every vote is counted, and every voice is heard. Let’s make this an election to remember!”
Major labels and distribution companies were once distinct entities with different ways of doing business. In today’s music industry, however, “distributors are starting to look like labels, and labels are starting to look like distributors,” says entertainment attorney David Fritz.
Each of the major label groups has its own distribution arm: Sony relies on The Orchard, Universal leans on Virgin, Warner has ADA. Confusingly, at varying points in the last five years, many of the frontline labels have launched distribution offerings too, whether that’s Republic (Imperial), 300 (Sparta), Alamo (which is affiliated with both Santa Anna and another distribution company, Foundation), or Interscope. Sony also has AWAL, which focuses more on nurturing individual artists, whereas The Orchard usually looks to sign and support labels. These companies are all in competition with each other — and often with the various frontline labels as well.
For Kirk Harding, a veteran artist manager and co-owner of the Bad Habit label, the meaning of all this activity is clear. “Everyone knows what the future is,” he says. “The major labels are going to be distribution companies with really big catalogs.”
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This would have been hard to fathom just five years ago. “It’s a fundamental change in how we’re operating,” acknowledges one major label A&R executive.
Frontline major label deals typically come with budgets — for recording, marketing and more — along with access to teams of people who can theoretically help artists find new songwriting partners, polish their TikTok clips and find money to support a tour. Since the label invests resources and services in the artists, it takes a significant chunk of the money that they earn, as well as rights to the songs they make.
Distribution deals are often the polar opposite. They typically come with far less money up front, few, if any, services, and significantly shorter terms. Since the company offering the deal doesn’t commit much, it doesn’t take much.
The frontline major labels were historically opposed to offering distribution agreements precisely because they tend to be short-term deals where the majority of the money made goes to the artist. That severely limits the upside for the record companies, which through the decades built their multi-billion-dollar valuations via long-term agreements — often five albums or more — in which they obtained artists’ recordings in perpetuity. Each major label group maintained a distribution arm for acts that insisted on a different arrangement, or for independent labels that needed help to get to market, but the frontline labels almost always signed the stars, and were thus seen as the real engines of growth.
Now, thanks to streaming, social media and advances in music production technology, artists can record songs, distribute them and amass fans on their own, meaning they have the luxury of turning down unappealing deals. And it turns out that, given the choice, many artists want to maintain flexibility — and make the majority of the money from their art. “Every artist we talk to is asking for a distro situation,” the A&R says.
This puts major labels in a bind. The long duration of traditional recording agreements allowed them to build up massive catalogs. This in turn ensured they had leverage in negotiations with streaming platforms — and protected them as catalog listening grew in the streaming era. The rise of short-term distribution deals, then, seems likely to erode the size of their catalogs over time even quicker than 35-year termination rights, meaning major labels are effectively mortgaging their future for short-term gains.
But like politicians looking to win re-election, they may feel they have no other choice. Even executives who believe distribution deals don’t make sense for them say they’re now feeling pressured to offer them anyway. “Majors have had to adapt and start offering different types of agreements just to even be in the ring on some of these potential signings,” says Gandhar Savur, a music lawyer.
Not only that, but the major labels have been losing market share to an array of new digital distributors that undercut them by allowing artists to upload songs to streaming platforms for a negligible fee or small percentage of royalties. This forces the majors to play defense. “They see some indie artists that come out of distribution systems and think, ‘I want that too,’” says Joie Manda, a former major label executive who launched Encore Recordings in 2021.
Offering distribution deals isn’t just about playing defense, though. They can help the majors limit risk by signing artists earlier, when they have smaller fan bases, which makes deals cheaper. Artists who do well and need additional support can later be “upstreamed” to a more traditional frontline arrangement. (And if the majors want to sign a viral act that lucked into one big song but has little other music of promise, a distribution deal may be the best way to do that.)
For artists, all the major label forays into distribution mean they potentially have a lot of different options at their disposal. “Artists want choices; they want the option for high service or low service, long term or short term,” says Mike Caren, founder of Artist Partner Group. “The choices are out there, and some companies want to provide all the choices under a single banner.”
Making the right choice remains a challenge, however.
A distribution deal “is not a label deal,” Harding emphasizes — even if it’s with a label. “All you can expect them to do is distribute. If you want them to do more, you have to pay more.”
Young artists in particular may not understand these distinctions, or know which option is better for them. Caren cautions that distribution agreements “can become traps where confusing pitches lead to false promises of short term with high service,” he says, adding, “This can be an unsustainable and dangerous territory that may lead to a lot of frustrated artists.”
Distribution offers will often come with one advance to cover all of an artist’s needs, according to Matt Buser, a music lawyer. “It forces artists to budget out all these different buckets of money,” he explains. “It gives them a lot of autonomy. But if you don’t know what you’re doing, and you blow all the money, and you have to ask for more, the record company gets more rights, or a longer deal, or something in exchange.”
It’s not uncommon for artists to be messaged distribution agreements via Instagram the moment they start to show growth — some companies don’t even pretend to want to meet the acts they sign. There are distributors who “play moneyball where they send very low-risk, low-effort offers to kids at scale,” says Eric Parker, who manages the rising U.K. act Myles Smith, among others. “I’ve seen one distributor send the exact same agreement to over 10 different kids.”
Parker calls this approach “race to the bottom A&R-ing in the age of data analytics.” It’s like using artists as lottery tickets — buy as many as possible as cheaply as possible, and pray one gets lucky.
Manda also believes some artists “are not getting the right guidance” when they’re evaluating different offers from labels and distributors. “Artists need to spend time with, and talk with, the people they might partner with,” he says.
He has a dim view of the major labels’ decision to throw themselves headlong into distribution. The majors “need to lean more into their superpower, which is signing, developing and breaking superstars over the long term,” Manda says. It’s notable that, even as the majors expand their distribution webs, most of the recent breakout artists this year — Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Benson Boone, Teddy Swims — have come via traditional label deals.
Despite this, the major label scramble to get artists into distribution deals continues. “Everyone is competing now in the space of, ‘It’s no longer wait and see what this becomes — stick it into distribution,’” says one senior executive. “Every artist has two or three distro offers after one video.”
Christian Hayes, a singer-songwriter from Rome, Ga., has signed with Capitol Records. Hayes is one of Capitol’s first signings since the label realigned in February under Tom March as chairman/CEO of Capitol Music Group and Lillia Parsa and Arjun Pulijal as co-presidents.
“We’re thrilled to welcome Christian to the Capitol Records family. As a singer, songwriter and performer, he demonstrates remarkable depth,” said March in a statement. “Christian is gifted at channeling raw, genuine emotion into music that resonates with listeners and transcends genres.”
“It all still feels surreal — music has always been a part of my life and to be able to sign with such a longstanding powerhouse of a label like Capitol is more than I could’ve ever dreamt. The team at Capitol has a point to prove and so do I,” said Hayes.
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Hayes’ debut EP, Last I Love You, will come out Sept. 20. The EP’s title track, shortened to “LILY,” has been streamed more than 1.2 million times on Spotify, with more than 2 million total global streams, according to the company.
Hayes began writing poems and songs when he was seven after his grandfather, a former poet laureate for the state of Georgia, gave him a journal. He then picked up a guitar when he was eight. He was active in leading worship music at his church before enrolling in the U.S. Navy Reserve and later attending the University of Alabama beginning in 2018. He subsequently moved to Nashville and has penned more than 900 songs.
Inspired by the music of the Eagles, James Taylor and The Chicks, the singer-songwriter self-released “Leaving,” which landed on Apple Music playlists as well as Spotify’s New Music Friday Country playlist.
Hayes has already inked deals with WME for booking and Universal Music Publishing Group for publishing. “After hearing ‘LILY,’ we were huge fans of Christian’s songwriting,” said Cyndi Forman, senior VP of A&R at UMPG Nashville. “Christian’s approach to songwriting is unique, yet fits right in at a time when genres are blending.”
Hayes is managed by Wild Rose Projects’ Helena Capps.
BLACKPINK member Jennie has signed to Columbia Records as a solo artist in partnership with her record label and entertainment company ODDATELIER, it was announced Sunday (Sept. 8). The singer is slated to release a new solo single in October. The news follows last December’s revelation that all BLACKPINK members had split with their label, […]
Few people are having a better week than Sabrina Carpenter. The singer capped one of the most complete ascents to pop stardom in recent memory with the release of her latest album, Short N Sweet — the culmination of an extended campaign in which she was able to build her career brick by brick, single by single, into the upper echelons of pop music and culture — which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with 362,000 equivalent album units, the best week of her career and the third-highest debut week of the year so far.
That type of success doesn’t happen by accident: Carpenter’s team worked all sides for this project, which included radio (two songs, “Espresso” and “Please Please Please,” are in the top 10 of Billboard‘s Radio Songs Chart), streaming (Short N Sweet also debuted at No. 1 on Billboard‘s Streaming Songs chart, with 233 million official on-demand streams) and sales (with nine vinyl variants, she sold 105,000 vinyl records, the second-largest week of the year and good for No. 1 on Billboard‘s Vinyl Albums chart). Four digital album variants, available for a limited time, moved 45,000 units, while five different CD editions added another 33,000 to the total. And all that activity and wide-ranging success helps Island Records’ senior vp/head of commercial strategy Marshall Nolan earn the title of Billboard’s Executive of the Week.
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Here, Nolan walks through the strategy that led to Carpenter’s career-best debut. “The plan from the start was that every detail mattered,” Nolan says. “We knew to double down on her strengths, in areas like e-commerce, and once we built a rhythm there, it afforded us the time to nurture elements that still had room for growth.”
This week, Sabrina Carpenter landed her first No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 with Short N Sweet. What key decision(s) did you make to make that happen?
Sabrina’s ability to world-build alongside her incredible team of creatives is unparalleled. We challenged ourselves to take that world and embed it into every e-commerce experience, building a range of carefully-curated collectibles for her superfans.
In many ways, the rollout of this album was very traditional: single built on top of single, radio play and streaming build-up, all leading into the climactic album release. Was that the plan from the start, or did things evolve along the way?
The plan from the start was that every detail mattered. We knew to double down on her strengths, in areas like e-commerce, and once we built a rhythm there, it afforded us the time to nurture elements that still had room for growth.
How did her singles’ success at radio help the digital campaign for the album?
Constant communication with our promo team, who are the best in the business, allowed us to narrate each movement and growth spurt in real-time. We as a team never focused on the successes of an individual single; the intention was always to build Sabrina as an artist and brand first. We welcomed any success that came along with that.
The album had nine vinyl variants, five CD editions and two cassettes available — what was the physical strategy for the album rollout, and what was behind the success of the vinyl in particular?
The variants are first and foremost a reflection of the incredible creative team surrounding Sabrina, who built products that fans immediately embraced as must-have collectible items. From the packaging finishes to the stylized content with which it was promoted, her passion for each variant came through in every detail. Each product paid special tribute to the many layers of Sabrina’s sharply sweet world.
How much does fan demand play into your commerce plan for any album?
This was another important factor in deciding to offer a wide range of album variants. Sabrina crafted a world we’re lucky to be a part of; we ensured that each album offering felt like an extension of it.
What did you learn from rolling out this release that you can take into other projects in the future?
Everything starts with trust — learning to build it, continuing to maintain it and working to strengthen it every step of the way. We never take for granted the role we are fortunate enough to play in maximizing and achieving an artist’s wildest dreams. Sabrina taught us all to allow time for a slow rise, there is so much to learn and look forward to along the way.
Travis Scott was fired up. “IM FCKING JUMPING THRU WALLS,” he wrote on Instagram. The reason: He planned to officially re-release Days Before Rodeo, his decade-old pre-stardom mixtape, on streaming services on August 23.
Sabrina Carpenter‘s Short n’ Sweet was slated to come out the same day, and before Scott’s announcement, it was expected to coast to the top of the Billboard 200 albums chart — an inevitable coronation after a string of high-flying singles. Instead, Carpenter’s release squeaked out a No. 1 finish, earning 362,000 units to Scott’s 361,000.
Short n’ Sweet out-streamed the rapper’s old mixtape by a wide margin, racking up 233 million official on-demand streams to Scott’s 40.6 million. But remarkably, he sold 300,000 digital downloads of Days Before Rodeo, according to Luminate. On the final day of the tracking week, Scott put out six different digital variations of his album — each of which included at least two extra tracks and cost just $4.99, the minimum price for chart eligibility — as part of a ferocious last-ditch attempt to snatch victory from Carpenter. She responded in kind, serving up three $4.99 digital variants of her own and ultimately selling 45,000 digital downloads. (All nine variants were available exclusively on the artists’ web stores.)
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This tactic has been around for years: Release digital variants near the end of the week; sell them cheap; polish off a rival; tout the accomplishment. The technique is getting more attention lately because clashes between titans are being decided by digital variant release strategies. Scott was nearly able to erase Carpenter’s mile-wide streaming lead thanks in part to his blitz of variants. And these duels have spurred the latest round of music industry conversations about whether artists and labels are trying to game the charts — or take advantage of their most devoted followers.
“People are keeping that ammo in the chamber: ‘Let’s save these four variants that we know we’re going to have to drop at different times throughout this week,’” says one major-label A&R who requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. “Does it enhance the fan experience, or does it actually lessen it? I think it’s manipulative.”
When asked about this practice, another prominent manager would say only that “it’s ironic that the institution which is allowing the problem to exist is reaching out for a quote.” (“Billboard is always reviewing, in consultation with Luminate and the industry at large, what sales channels are included for chart eligibility, and has updated its policies when necessary based on market behavior,” Silvio Pietroluongo, Billboard‘s executive vp of charts and data partnerships, said in a statement.)
On the other hand, some label executives believe that digital variants help create eye-catching first-week totals and race-to-the-finish-line dramas that are good for the music industry, sort of like its version of Barbenheimer: Before Taylor Swift’s showdown with Billie Eilish in May and Carpenter vs. Scott more recently, it had been a whopping eight years since two albums cracked the 300,000-unit mark during the same week.
And the contest between Carpenter and Scott was a nail-biter until the end, as both camps released their final variant in the last two hours of the tracking week. Since January 2020, there have only been seven weeks when the gap between Nos. 1 and 2 was less than 1,000 units. (Representatives for Carpenter and Scott did not respond to requests for comment.)
Despite the prominence of digital albums in some recent release campaigns, digital album sales have plummeted from 103.3 million in 2015 to 18.3 million in 2023, according to Luminate’s annual reports. Within this category, Luminate also tracks an “others” grouping that reflects sales from artists’ direct-to-consumer web stores along with non-major digital retailers. So far this year, sales in “others” total just 1.7 million, which amounts to 0.23% of year-to-date total album consumption (730.45 million equivalent album units*).
While this represents a tiny sliver of overall activity, it can make a difference in close chart races. Swift released additional digital variants when she went head to head with Eilish and against Ye and Ty Dolla $ign‘s Vultures 2 in August. (Eilish and Ye and Ty released their own as well, to no avail.) And Blink-182 used a digital variant of One More Time as part of a successful effort to scrape by Drake‘s For All the Dogs and nab No. 1 in October.
These face-offs also demonstrate how far labels and artists are willing to go to try to get that top spot. Getting a No. 1 demonstrates that labels “still have the ability to move the needle,” says industry veteran Ray Daniels. “That is a big reason why certain artists will go to certain labels.” And “ego is a lot of it,” adds Joey Arbagey, a former major-label A&R executive.
Most prominent artists want to top the chart as well, though they may be loath to admit it. “It’s a way of an artist on the rise saying they have arrived,” Daniels says. And scoring a No. 1 can then serve as a springboard, creating “a domino effect of other opportunities, whether that’s working with brands or getting significant press,” according to Nick Groff, an artist manager and former A&R.
In more recent years, artists and labels have used hyper-aggressive price discounting, bundling albums with tickets or merchandise, box sets, vinyl variants and other techniques to try to jack up an album’s chart position. (There are dissenters: “It’s crazy how much time and energy is wasted on shit like this,” says one former major label executive, practically eye-rolling through the phone, “instead of focusing on signing good artists and making good music.”) When chart rules change, so do the industry’s strategies for impacting them.
Some of these options disappeared in 2020 after Billboard stopped counting albums sold in merchandise bundles and ticket bundle offers. Label executives say selling digital variant downloads is one of the few maneuvers they have left to goose numbers late in a chart week. The other is putting a deluxe version of the album with additional tracks on streaming services, also an increasingly common tactic.
But adding an unreleased track or two onto the album and selling it exclusively through an artist’s web store is a more potent option. This can also be done quickly and at the last minute, as a Hail Mary when a chart race suddenly becomes competitive. Acts usually make these releases available for a limited time only, which both further juices fan interest and underscores that the artists are focusing on the all-important release week.
In many cases, this strategy is effectively a sale of a lone song masquerading as an album purchase — artists often just add one live track or unreleased loosie to the original project and make it available as a new variant. Some artists don’t even include a new song in a digital variant; they just change up the artwork, or digitally “sign” the album art.
“If there is exclusive music available in these variant releases, that can be a great strategy and a fun way to engage with your fan base,” says Greg Hirschhorn, founder of the distribution company Too Lost. “If there is only a change in the track list or a different album artwork, I feel like the only real goal or outcome is chart manipulation.”
Steeply discounted digital variants also threaten to snub the diehards who ordered an album ahead of time at full price. If a fan pays $9.99 for a pre-order on iTunes, they may feel like a sucker when they see the same album augmented with bonus material and made available for just $4.99 near the end of the tracking week. “It feels like people should wait until Thursday afternoon to buy the album” and get the best deal, the major-label A&R says.
But for now, any potential fan backlash to the rise of variants appears to be outweighed by their impact on the charts. “When you’re in it and you’re fighting so hard for No. 1, it can seem obnoxious [to people outside the industry], but that’s the only thing that matters,”Arbagey says. “They’re pulling out all the stops.”
“I’ve definitely been in one of those heated races,” Groff adds. “You figure out everything you can possibly do to boost the numbers.”
*Through the week ending Aug. 29, total U.S. album consumption in 2024, as represented by equivalent album units — excluding units caused by user generated content — equals 730.45 million, according to Luminate. Each equivalent album unit equals one album sale, or 10 individual tracks sold from an album, or 3,750 ad-supported or 1,250 paid/subscription on-demand official audio and video streams generated by songs from an album.
By some measures, the recorded music business has never been better. U.S. sales grew 8% in 2023 to hit a record high $17.1 billion; streaming continues to grow around the world; and revenue and operating income are rising at the three major labels and many smaller companies as well. The subscription streaming model is appealingly predictable, and the explosion of other forms of online media, from video games to virtual exercise programs, is creating plenty of opportunities for growth.
By other measures, the industry is in a tough spot. The flood of new music pouring into streaming services — both legitimate and not — is diluting the royalty pool for professional musicians. (This, and some other things, might be good for some players, but it seems to be bad for the business.) Although comparisons are complicated, it seems harder than ever to break new acts. Underneath all of this is the part of the iceberg most people don’t see: The deals labels sign with acts are generally less advantageous, because artists have more leverage than ever.
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The numbers say it’s the best of times. Layoffs at Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group say otherwise. And although the recorded music business isn’t in any real danger — the only question is how fast it’s going to grow — it’s hard to escape the idea that something just feels off.
Welcome to the music business version of the “vibecession” that’s affecting the U.S. economy as a whole. The term, coined in June 2022 by the financial analyst Kyla Scanlon, describes the apparent disconnect between positive economic indicators and negative public perceptions. In layman’s terms, if the numbers look so good, why do things feel so bad?
Outside the music business, most of the economic news is good, or at least good-ish by the standards of the dismal science. Inflation is down and the economy seems to be growing again. The problem, in industry terms, is that people just aren’t feeling it. One example: Job loss concerns are high at a time when the level of layoffs is low, according to Marketplace. The article compares the current situation to a doctor talking to a healthy patient who thinks he’s sick. There are explanations for this: Perhaps our minds are still adjusting to higher prices, which continue to rise even as the rate of inflation declines, or maybe troubling political news just makes more of an impression than economic indicators.
This could be more than a feeling, as a Boston economist might say, since people and companies that believe the economy will decline might cut back their spending and, inadvertently, contribute to making it happen. Although the music business is much harder to measure, the same thing could happen there. The pessimism that has already led to layoffs and restructuring means there will be fewer A&R executives signing fewer acts and then spending less money on marketing and promotion. That might be necessary. But it’s unlikely to help.
What’s killing the vibe in music? Partly, expectations have changed. The hypergrowth phase of streaming is ending, but big music companies, especially UMG and WMG, are under some pressure to grow faster than the overall business. Subscription streaming is going from the savior of the music business to another new format that boosts some kinds of music at the expense of others. There aren’t many new stars — one of the big hip-hop stories this year was the feud between Drake and Kendrick Lamar. (This is both the winter of our discontent and the season of diss content.) And new albums by established stars like Ariana Grande and Dua Lipa are off to a slow start (although it’s hard to know what that means in a streaming-driven business).
There may also be a sense, both in the music business and in the economy as a whole, that the foundation is not as solid as it seems. There’s more talk of quick fixes, both in the overall economy (Blockchain!) and in the music business (NFTs!). But there’s not much effort to get at the heart of the problems: The economy seems increasingly rigged toward finance and the pro-rata royalty distribution of streaming services prizes viral sensations in a way that may make it hard for different kinds of artists to build careers.
In the meantime, the numbers keep going up. The stock market has skyrocketed, undeterred by COVID, inflation and conflict in the Middle East — but that can’t last forever. The recorded music business keeps growing, too, and it will almost certainly continue to do so — just perhaps not in the ways we have come to expect. Over the past few years, labels have spent fortunes signing viral superstars who win big — but how many of them will be around in a decade? Meanwhile, popular tastes are harder than ever to predict. Two years ago, when it seemed like the future belonged to hip-hop, could anyone have predicted such a big country comeback? Giving people what they want is a fine strategy — but only if they keep wanting it.
It’s a good time to toast the good times — but it’s tempting to ask for a strong drink, too. Both the music industry and the broader economy keep climbing over problems to reach new peaks. And they’re great places to be — until you realize that it’s all downhill from there.