Record Labels
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McHale’s Bar & Grill, a pub in midtown Manhattan, bills itself as “the best Irish bar in NYC.” It opens bright and early, at 10 a.m. on weekdays; it also happens to be right around the corner from Warner Music Group’s New York office. And on Thursday (Sept. 19), it was crammed full of Atlantic Music Group employees gathering to honor colleagues who had been laid off earlier that day. Several staffers clambered onto chairs to deliver spontaneous speeches about their time at the storied label.
McHale’s “is the only thing open during the day in that area,” says one employee who survived the cuts. At the impromptu gathering, “Lots of people who have been at Atlantic for 10- or 20-plus years said they loved being able to work with everyone. People were feeling supported since a lot of staff had been let go” — around 150 layoffs in total, according to WMG’s SEC filing.
Multiple sources stress that these departures, as well as the new regime being put in place by incoming Atlantic Music Group CEO Elliot Grainge, represent a seismic shift for Atlantic — a generational changing of the guard. A number of high-profile executives will be leaving the company, including Atlantic Music Group CEO Julie Greenwald, who co-led Atlantic for nearly 20 years; WMG’s CEO of recorded music Max Lousada, who had been at WMG for decades; 300 Elektra Entertainment chairman/CEO Kevin Liles; Atlantic general manager Paul Sinclair; and Atlantic co-president of Black music Michael Kyser, along with several department heads at both Atlantic and Elektra Records.
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In the wake of the cuts, sources say the Elektra side of 300 Elektra Entertainment is down to fewer than 20 people; Warner announced that 3EE president Gregg Nadel will move to become co-chair of Warner Music Nashville, but did not mention a replacement. (Lousada and Liles will also not be replaced.) Atlantic made further cuts to its radio team, which now has fewer than 10 employees, having already been hit in previous waves of layoffs. The label slashed the publicity department to just a handful of people.
In addition, Atlantic and Elektra eliminated their touring teams, which help artists with promotion and production on the road. The creative departments of Atlantic and 300 — the staffers who help furnish artists with the content they need in a visual, social media-driven age — suffered losses as well. And the label cut some A&R executives.
All these vanished jobs are the latest sign that the definition of a major label is transforming rapidly. “The old advantages that a big label had in the past, radio and press and TV, those just aren’t as powerful as they were,” says Jonathan Daniel, a veteran artist manager. The industry is trying to “remodel what a major label is, because the old way is unsustainable at this point.”
That retooling process has led to a number of layoffs at both WMG and Universal Music Group over the last 18 months. (Cuts at Sony Music have been more moderate, sources have said, at least so far.) Executives in traditional departments, like radio and press, have been especially vulnerable. And companies have tried to reduce overlapping roles at frontline labels in favor of a shared central system of services.
Grainge, 30, has expressed disdain for the more sprawling, old-fashioned major label model in the past. In 2016, he founded the label 10K Projects, which has billed itself almost as an anti-major: Small and fleet-footed instead of large and lumbering, with a heavy focus on modern tools (digital marketing) at the expense of more old-fashioned ones (radio). He has had success with this approach, helping boost the early careers of artists like Ice Spice, XXXTentacion and Trippie Redd.
Several Atlantic staffers started to worry about the possibility of additional staff cuts in August, as soon as WMG unexpectedly announced that Grainge would replace Greenwald starting October 1. In the past, major leadership changes at labels have often been accompanied by layoffs. Roughly 20 years ago, for example, not long after Lyor Cohen took over as chairman/CEO of WMG, the company let go of around 1,000 employees.
That said, the record business was shrinking then, rather than growing. And WMG had already made three rounds of cuts in the past 19 months before last week’s layoffs.
Some executives believe that Atlantic Music Group, which has struggled to produce new breakout artists in the last two years, was still too big and too inefficient, even after the previous reductions in staff. It’s nearly impossible to turn a massive ship quickly, and speed is crucial in what WMG CEO Robert Kyncl recently called a “fast-paced, fiercely competitive industry.”
The company’s realignment is intended to strengthen the core Atlantic Music Group structure while also making it more flexible, so it can throw its full weight behind artists at Atlantic, 300 or Elektra at any given time, sources say. “Elliot is confident in the team he’s put in place and they’re all focused on moving the needle,” a source inside WMG tells Billboard. The mission, this person continues, is focusing on “artists, artist development, great music. With all the anxiety about changes, there is excitement about the future, too.”
But others wonder if deep cuts will ultimately affect a label’s ability to deliver on behalf of its artists. “They’re smart people; obviously there’s some sort of plan” with the restructure and the layoffs, says Motti Shulman, who exited his role as senior vp of rhythm promotion at 300 Elektra Entertainment in 2023. “But if you keep cutting the fat, at some point you dig into the muscle. I think they’ve gone beyond the fat.”
Earlier this month, WMG employees say Grainge spent time in the company’s Los Angeles and New York offices along with Zach Friedman and Tony Talamo, who are set to become chief operating officer and general manager of Atlantic Music Group, respectively. Several Atlantic staffers believed that the incoming leadership was evaluating their work and weighing who might be cut.
When layoffs began in New York last Thursday, a number of employees were told they were being let go in individual meetings with Greenwald — who had, in many cases, played an instrumental role in hiring them, sometimes decades ago. Some staffers started to call the artists they had collaborated with to notify them that they had been laid off. Others updated their LinkedIn profiles: #OpenToWork.
Historically, when labels cut a lot of employees — as Universal Music group did in 1999, and WMG did in 2004 — they often trim artist rosters as well. Specific employees often champion specific artists in the building; if those cheerleaders are gone, the label may in turn sever ties with the acts they cheered for. On top of that, remaining staff might be spread too thin to aid as many acts as it did previously. Many managers are still waiting to hear if their artists will be affected in the shakeup.
Todd Rubenstein, a veteran music lawyer, has been watching the steady drumbeat of layoffs across the major labels since the start of 2023. “I find it all sad,” he says. “Not just from the human level of people losing their jobs, but everyone was already complaining before about what labels were not doing for their artists. What happens now that a hundred people got let go?”
On Monday (Sept. 23), Atlantic started trying to answer that question. The company announced a “new era” and a series of promotions. “We are committed to a single principle,” Grainge said in a statement. “Maximum impact for original artists.”
Tony Dize has inked a record deal with Rimas Music, and will make his highly-awaited comeback with new music, Billboard can exclusively announce today (Sept. 24). With a trajectory that spans over 20 years, the Puerto Rican artist born Tony Feliciano Rivera gained popularity as “La Melodía de la Calle” (the melody of the streets) thanks to his smooth vocals that backed his signature romantic reggaetón sound.
Rimas — home to Bad Bunny, Arcángel, and Eladio Carrión, to name a few — will not only “revive his classic reggaeton sound but also propel his music into the future, pushing the boundaries of Latin music,” according to a press release.
“This is a very important moment for Rimas and for Tony Dize,” said Junior Carabaño, co-founder of Rimas, in a statement. “Tony’s signing is a testament to our ongoing mission to work with artists who have not only shaped the culture but continue to drive it forward. Over the past year, we’ve been committed to making this partnership a reality, and it’s an honor that Tony has trusted us for this new chapter in his career. Together, we aim to take his timeless sound to new heights and reach even broader audiences worldwide. We can’t wait to make history together.”
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On the Billboard charts, Tony secured nine entries on the Hot Latin Songs chart including “El Doctorado” at No. 8 in 2010. The song also reached No. 1 on Latin Rhythm Airplay for two weeks that same year. In 2014, he peaked at No. 2 on the latter chart with “Prometo Olvidarte.”
He additionally secured his first and only entry on the Billboard 200 chart with his debut album, La Melodía de la Calle, in 2008. He reached No. 1 on Latin Rhythm Albums in 2009 with La Melodía de La Calle (Updated); and in 2015, his set La Melodía de La Calle, 3rd Season, debuted at No. 1 on both Top Latin Albums and Latin Rhythm Albums charts.
Most recently, he was a featured artist on Bad Bunny’s “La Corriente,” part of his Una Verano Sin Ti album. The infectious collab earned Dize his only entry on the Billboard Hot 100 chart in 2022, and on both Global charts: No. 17 on the Billboard Global 200 and No. 20 on the Global Excl. U.S.
On the heels of the signing, the “Permitame” singer will release his new single “Quisiera,” accompanied by a conceptual video directed by Nuno Gomes.
Warner Music Group mainstay Gregg Nadel has been appointed co-chair and co-president of Warner Music Nashville and will work alongside Cris Lacy, who’s been co-head of WMN for the past two years. Nadel succeeds Ben Kline, who is stepping down following a decade with the company.
The changes follow the recent move to bring Warner Music Nashville under the Warner Records umbrella.
Based in Nashville, Nadel and Lacy will report to Warner Records CEO & co-chairman Aaron Bay-Schuck and COO & co-chairman Tom Corson, who report direct to WMG CEO Robert Kyncl, effective Oct. 1. Lacy, Nadel, and their team will continue to work with Nashville artists co-signed with Atlantic Music Group.
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Over the course of nearly three decades, Nadel, who most recently served as president of Elektra Entertainment, has signed and/or championed artists including Zac Brown Band, Brandi Carlile, The Highwomen, Sturgill Simpson, Bailey Zimmerman and Brittney Spencer, as well as many other artists across multiple genres.
Prior to being named president of Elektra Entertainment in 2017, Nadel served as general manager of Elektra Records and before that was senior vp of A&R and marketing for Atlantic Records. A 27-year veteran of WMG, Nadel joined Atlantic directly out of college in 1997. He has led campaigns for global artists such as Ed Sheeran, who he’s worked with since the early days of Sheeran’s career. Nadel has been named to Billboard’s Power 100 list multiple times, and, this year, was honored as a Country Power Player.
Bay-Schuck and Corson said in a statement, “Gregg grew up at WMG, and over the past three decades, he’s brought his impeccable taste, wisdom, and guidance to an exceptional array of original, powerful voices. He’s an ambidextrous A&R and marketing expert with a global perspective, which will be a tremendous asset at a time when Nashville artists are crossing boundaries and reaching the world stage like never before. Like Gregg, Cris has expanded from her roots as an A&R force into a true multi-dimensional leader, and together, they’ll be a phenomenal team to take Warner Music Nashville into a dynamic future.”
Bay-Schuck and Corson added, “We’d also like to extend our heartfelt gratitude to Ben Kline. Over his past decade with WMN, his tireless passion for the label’s artists and team has set the company up for continued, expanding success. He leaves with our deepest admiration and best wishes for his next chapter.”
Nadel said, “I’ve had the honor of working with incredibly talented artists across many sounds and styles, and through it all, I’ve always felt a deep connection to the heartfelt music that comes from Nashville’s rich creative culture. I’m excited to be diving deeper into this brilliant community of musicians and storytellers, and I’m especially excited about working alongside Cris Lacy and the entire team. Thank you to Tom and Aaron for this incredible opportunity.”
Lacy noted, “Thanks to WMG’s cross-label and cross-genre philosophy, Gregg and I have been collaborating within the company for over a decade. We’re both rooted in a deep love of the music that comes into and out of Nashville. Gregg brings a unique, wide-ranging perspective to what will be a fantastic partnership. He has long invested in the culture and the community of this town, and together, we are fiercely committed to amplifying what makes its music so special. My heartfelt thanks and admiration go out to Ben. It’s been a great ride, and his expertise, leadership, and friendship have made it all the more gratifying. I wish him the very best in all things to come.”
Kline said, “Together, we’ve grown Warner Music Nashville to new heights and played vital roles in the development of so many artists. Thanks to WMG leadership for all of the opportunities, faith, and guidance along the way. And thank you to Cris Lacy for her never-wavering support for the artists and their musical visions. I’m excited for the next adventure.”
Universal Music Group Nashville has appointed Robert Kilduff as chief financial officer. Kilduff brings to the role more than three decades of experience in financial leadership, strategic financial planning, operations, and corporate development.
Kilduff previously served as CFO for non-profit organization, the Gary Sinise Foundation. He has also served as CFO of New Form Entertainment, vice president of financial planning & analysis for WME, and vice president of financial planning & analysis for Universal Music Group North America. Kilduff has also helmed financial strategy for Broadramp, Inc. as an early tech start up, spearheaded the launch of an international software division for special effects company Digital Domain, and directed international financial teams and operations integration for the Viacom subsidiary Neopets.com/ Kilduff’s other finance roles have included PricewaterhouseCoopers Strategy Consulting, Warner Bros. Studios, and former Big Six accounting firm, Coopers & Lybrand. Kilduff holds degrees from UCLA and Columbia Business School.
“Having helped lead the financial growth strategy of businesses in music, film/television, and technology sectors, Bob has a wealth of knowledge that will be instrumental in the growth strategy of Universal Music Group Nashville,” said Universal Music Group Nashville Chair/CEO, Cindy Mabe in a statement. “He is the unicorn we were looking for to help grow the next era of UMGN. I am so excited for him to join our team.”
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Kilduff added, “I am thrilled to rejoin UMG, a company with such a rich history of creative excellence, and eager to contribute to its ongoing success and future growth.”
The addition of Kilduff is the latest shift for UMG Nashville, following the appointment of Derek Anderson as senior vp of commerce last month. The label group also recently teamed up with Timbaland’s Mosley Music.
The label group Universal Music Group Nashville consists of imprints Capitol Records Nashville, EMI Records Nashville, MCA Nashville, and Mercury Nashville, as well as comedy label Capitol Comedy Nashville, which launched last year. In February, UMG Nashville revealed the launch of its distribution arm Silver Wings Records, as well as the launch of its film/tv production unit Sing Me Back Home Productions.
UMG Nashville’s artist roster includes Alan Jackson, Anne Wilson, Billy Currington, Brad Paisley, Brothers Osborne, Bryce Leatherwood, Carrie Underwood, Carter Faith, Catie Offerman, Caylee Hammack, Chris Stapleton, Dalton Dover, Darius Rucker, Dierks Bentley, Dillon James, Eric Church, George Strait, Hootie & The Blowfish, Jon Pardi, Jordan Davis, Josh Ross, Josh Turner, Kacey Musgraves, Kassi Ashton, Keith Urban, Little Big Town, Louie TheSinger, Luke Bryan, Luke Grimes, Maddie & Tae, Mickey Guyton, Parker McCollum, Priscilla Block, Reba McEntire, Sam Hunt, Sam Williams, The War And Treaty, Timothy Wayne, Tucker Wetmore, Tyler Hubbard, Vince Gill, Vincent Mason, and more, as well as comedian Nate Bargatze.
LONDON, U.K. — Long-serving executive Dickon Stainer has been appointed chairman and CEO of Universal Music U.K., succeeding David Joseph, who announced he was stepping down from the role after almost 17 years in charge on Monday (Sept. 23).
Stainer’s appointment was announced in a memo from Lucian Grainge sent to staff on Tuesday (Sept. 24). For the last 10 years, Stainer has served as president and CEO of Universal Music Group’s Global Classics and Jazz division, splitting his time between London and New York.
“Dickon has embraced an expansive musical worldview throughout his career, taking artists from a wide variety of genres and bringing them to audiences globally,” said Grainge in the memo, which has been viewed by Billboard, and accompanying press release.
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“He not only has deep experience in leveraging our worldwide organization on behalf of our artists, but a track record that includes global commercial and creative artist successes and countless awards in many countries,” said Grainge, who thanked outgoing CEO and chairman David Joseph for his “many contributions. He leaves with our gratitude.”
In his new role, Stainer will be responsible for leading the overall management and strategic direction of Universal Music U.K., including Island EMI Label Group, Polydor Label Group, Decca Records, the recently formed Audience and Media Division, as well as Abbey Road Studios.
In addition to his new responsibilities, Stainer will continue his long association with UMG’s Global Classics and Jazz division in the capacity of chairman, Grainge told staff. Announcements regarding new leadership roles and internal promotions in these businesses will be made shortly, said the UMG chief.
“It is an honour to be asked by Sir Lucian Grainge to lead Universal Music U.K. The depth of talent that we have at the company, coupled with our remarkable roster of artists, gives me tremendous confidence in what we can achieve together,” said Stainer in a statement.
He continued: “Having worked in both the international and domestic divisions of UMG, I know how central the U.K. is to the global music industry – a vital repertoire source that provides the world with great artists and great music. I can’t wait to get started.”
The reorganization at the top of Universal U.K. comes just a few months after the company announced it was merging its historic Island and EMI label divisions and forming two new frontline label groups: Island EMI Label Group, headed by Louis Bloom as president, and Polydor Label Group, led by Ben Mortimer.
The U.K. arm of Universal Music is additionally launching a new Audience and Media Division to support artists and labels, headed by Rebecca Allen.
SYDNEY, Australia — Empire now has an outpost in Australia.
The Bay Area hip-hop juggernaut recruits label veteran Cameron Walsh to lead its activities in these parts as Australian territory manager.
“I’m privileged and elated to be joining the empire that is Empire, leading the label’s expansion into Australia,” Walsh comments on LinkedIn. “Empire Australia is open for business.”
Based in Sydney, Walsh brings to the role a stack of experience accumulated from major and independent labels, from Sony Music to Universal Music, EMI, Comes With Fries, and most recently with [PIAS] Australia/Inertia Music, where he served as director of label services & head of digital – Australia, New Zealand.
Empire founder and CEO Ghazi Shami confirmed the business’ latest move during an onstage interview last week at All That Matters 2024 in Singapore.
“It was something that we were looking for, for a long time,” Ghazi said during a Q&A at Hilton Singapore Orchard. “We’re really picky about the people that we select in territories to plant the flag because they have to be representative of our ethos of our cultural composition, and there has to be some type of commitment to excellence that we perceive.”
Empire launched in San Francisco back in 2010 as a digital distribution specialist. A year later, Spotify arrived in the United States.
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As its name would suggest, the company grew into a vertically-integrated powerhouse with some 250 global staff, and is active in every conceivable part of the music industry.
Ghazi’s company is recognized as a force in hip-hop and the surging Afrobeats genre. This year, Empire has enjoyed a smash hit this year with Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which logged multiple months at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, smashing chart records along the way. The single also went to No. 1 on Australia’s ARIA Chart and cracked the top 10 in the U.K. “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” earns an 11th week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, extending 2024’s longest reign.
“The music that they’re making here is, honestly, the most culturally important thing I’ve done in my entire career, and I’ve been in the music business since I was 14,” Empire founder/CEO Ghazi told Billboard in 2023. “These guys are the kings of where they come from, and they’re about to be the kings of everywhere if we keep doing what we’re doing. It’s phenomenal to see what’s happening.”
Blake Shelton has a new label home, signing with BBR Music Group/BMG Nashville. Oklahoma native Shelton, who has earned 28 No. 1 Billboard Country Airplay hits during his career, is currently in the top 10 on the Country Airplay chart with his Post Malone collaboration “Pour Me a Drink.” During the course of his career, […]
LONDON — Universal Music U.K. chairman and CEO David Joseph has announced he is stepping down after almost 17 years at the helm of the company.
The widely respected executive and longstanding label boss joined the U.K. arm of Universal in 1998 as general manager of Polydor and was promoted to chairman and CEO of Universal Music U.K. and Ireland in 2008. His departure was announced in a memo to staff on Monday (Sept. 23) in which Joseph said he was leaving the music business to study for a master’s degree in religion and theology at King’s College London, commencing next week.
“It has been an honour to work alongside you, creating something truly exceptional, a company that wasn’t only number one but also led with heart and creativity. We’ve done that together,” said Joseph in the memo, which has been viewed by Billboard.
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Joseph went on to say that his career in the record business, “once impossible to imagine, has been a gift for which I’m deeply grateful. Now, after 17 years in this role, it’s time to step into something new.”
The outgoing exec — who oversaw the EMI, Decca, Island, Polydor and 0207 Def Jam labels, as well as Abbey Road Studios — praised his former colleagues at Universal Music U.K. who “will undoubtedly continue to inspire, innovate, and lead the way.”
Joseph also issued a “special thank you” to Universal Music chairman/CEO Lucian Grainge “without whom none of this would have been possible. First, he hired me, and then he let me be myself.”
“This place, the people, the building, the conversations, the inspiration, and the music that somehow makes the rest of life blur into the background – these will all be missed immeasurably,” said Joseph, who described his 26 year career at Universal Music as “an absolute pleasure.”
In a separate staff memo, also seen by Billboard, Grainge described his two decades-plus working with Joseph, beginning with the turnaround of Polydor in the late 1990s, as a “remarkable journey.”
“One of the many things I respect about David is that he never tried to be anyone but himself and he guided the U.K. company to heights in a way that was completely authentic to him. In addition, I have enormous respect for his decision to take an entirely different path after so many outstanding years at UMG,” said Grainge.
The Universal Music chairman/CEO went on to say that he would be informing staff “what comes next” for the U.K. arm of the company “shortly, but today is about David.”
“His contributions—as an executive, as a leader and as a friend—have always been focused on making our company a better place for our employees and our artists. I know you will join me in wishing David our very best,” concluded Grainge.
As U.K. boss of the world’s biggest music company, Joseph was one of the most powerful record executives in the United Kingdom and was a regular fixture in Billboard’s annual International Power Players lists. In 2016, he was awarded a CBE for services to the music industry, while Amy Winehouse, Florence and the Machine, Sam Smith, Lewis Capaldi, Ellie Goulding are just a few of the U.K. acts that achieved global fame under Joseph’s watch.
Earlier this year, Joseph told Billboard that the international sales success of the Rolling Stones’ Hackney Diamonds, which topped the charts in 20 countries; followed several weeks later by The Beatles’ final song, “Now And Then,” reaching No. 1 in the U.K. and No. 7 on the Hot 100, were two of his recent highlights in the post, calling the campaigns “best-in-class examples of U.K. creativity exporting to the world.”
The London-based executive’s exit from Universal Music Group comes just a few months after the company announced it was merging its historic Island and EMI label divisions as part of a widespread restructuring of the firm’s U.K. business.
As part of that reorganization, two new frontline label groups — Island EMI Label Group, headed by Louis Bloom as president, and Polydor Label Group, led by Ben Mortimer – have been created, mirroring changes UMG made to its U.S. teams earlier this year with the formation of Interscope Capitol Labels Group and Republic Corps. The U.K. arm of Universal Music is additionally launching a new Audience and Media Division to support artists and labels, headed by Rebecca Allen.
As Elliot Grainge prepares to take over as the new CEO of Atlantic Music Group on Oct. 1, he unveiled his new leadership team today (Sept. 23).
Craig Kallman, the longtime co-chairman/CEO of Atlantic Records, will now take on the title of chief music officer for Atlantic Music Group. Additionally, Zach Friedman and Tony Talamo, the former co-presidents of 10K Projects, which Grainge founded and sold to Warner Music Group last year, will become AMG’s chief operating officer and general manager, respectively. Erica Bellarosa will be general counsel, and former Republic chief creative officer Dave Rocco has been named president of creative.
At Atlantic Records, Lanre Gaba has been promoted to president of hip-hop, R&B and global music; Lu Mota has been named head of A&R for hip-hop, R&B and global music; and Marsha St. Hubert has been named head of marketing for hip-hop, R&B and global music. Kevin Weaver will retain his title as president of the West Coast, while Brandon Davis and Jeff Levin will be executive vps and co-heads of A&R for pop and rock. Marisa Aron will now take over as head of marketing for pop and rock.
Rayna Bass and Selim Bouab will remain as co-presidents of 300 Entertainment, while Nicholas Ziangas and Molly McLachlan have been promoted to co-presidents of 10K Projects. The announcement says that more announcements will be made shortly, and does not include leadership for Elektra Records, except to say that former president Gregg Nadel will be moving to a new role within the Warner Music Group.
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“Atlantic Music Group is home to the most extraordinary artists and executives in the world,” Grainge said in a statement. “This great label has moved through a meaningful transition, and emerged with a world-class team, made up of ambitious innovators and veteran visionaries. We have a plan to build on the extraordinary achievements of the last twenty years, honor the independent DNA of our labels, and collaborate with artists to pioneer a future filled with opportunity. To all our artists, managers, and partners, we are committed to a single principle — maximum impact for original artists. We’re looking forward to doing big, bold, brave things together.”
The announcement of the new structure follows an announcement last week about a reorganization of the Atlantic Music Group, through which several key leaders at Atlantic, 300 and Elektra departed the company, with layoffs of some 150-175 employees. That process is said to have been completed last week. Additionally, today’s announcement confirmed that 10K will continue as a standalone label under AMG, while Elektra, Fueled By Ramen and Roadrunner will continue as imprints.
“AMG will be lean, agile, fiercely creative, and deeply passionate about artists and their fans,” Warner Music Group CEO Robert Kyncl said in a statement. “We’re opening an exciting new chapter in the story of an iconic label. Elliot’s thoughtfully chosen a team that combines a wealth of experience, a diversity of expertise, and a commitment to excellence.”
Universal Music Group hit enough right notes during its first Capital Markets Day (CMD) presentation since before going public in 2021, judging from Billboard’s review of a handful of equity analysts’ comments on Tuesday’s event.
Reviews of the presentation from London’s Abbey Road Studio, which featured talks by CEO Lucian Grainge and other top executives, varied from zealous to merely positive. JP Morgan analysts called UMG’s presentation “one of the best capital markets days we have attended in the past 30 years, and it further increased our already high conviction in the UMG story.” Barclays analysts didn’t believe there was enough new information to change investors’ minds about the company. Still, they wrote, “We viewed UMG’s arguments as convincing and their financial targets as achievable.”
As for the targets, UMG said revenue will grow at more than a 7% cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2028 — not including the impact of any mergers and acquisitions. As JP Morgan noted, UMG stuck with the “high single digit growth” it gave in its last CMD presentation before going public in September 2021. In other words, UMG believes it can achieve the same high single-digit growth rate that initially lured streaming-hungry investors when the company broke off from Vivendi three years ago. Had UMG downgraded to a lower revenue CAGR — say, in the mid-single digits — the post-presentation commentary wouldn’t have been as kind.
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Subscription music streaming’s role is so vital to UMG’s future that it crafted a narrative to explain how it can achieve CAGR of 8% to 10% in subscription revenue. It’s called Streaming 2.0 and it took center stage in the CMD presentation. In the initial Streaming 1.0 phase, services such as Spotify and Apple Music kept prices steady while prioritizing acquiring subscribers over maximizing revenue per user (ARPU). They paid the same royalty regardless of creator and quality of music. They built global presences but got most of their revenue from a relatively small number of Western markets.
Streaming 2.0 is about monetization and getting more from existing subscribers while signing up customers in developing markets. Not every stream will be worth the same and generic “functional music” will get paid less. Streaming platforms will use customer segmentation to offer premium experiences for customers willing to pay more. To that end, CFO Boyd Muir revealed that UMG is in “advanced talks” with Spotify about its planned “superfan” tier, which Spotify CEO Daniel Ek has said could be priced at $17 or $18 per month. Tencent Music Entertainment already offers such a product, Super VIP, that costs five times as much as a normal subscription.
With streaming growth slowing, it was important for UMG to prove it has a plan for the future of streaming. After all, subscription growth has an outsized impact on investors’ outlook. In July, UMG’s stock dropped 24% in a single day after UMG’s second-quarter earnings revealed a sudden, sharper-than-expected slowdown in streaming revenue. Streaming 2.0 neatly packages UMG’s various tactics into a simple, understandable concept.
UMG also leaned heavily into direct-to-consumer (D2C) sales of merch, vinyl and other items, and Muir gave a new data point: the company’s D2C sales are growing at a 33% CAGR and totaled 548 million euros ($612 million), or roughly 5% of total revenue, from about 1,300 online stores. That gives UMG a massive amount of data on its artists’ biggest fans. “The superfan/D2C opportunity is not just a complementary high growth revenue opportunity,” Muir said. “It’s also an important competitive advantage that is increasing our appeal to artists and giving us the capability to do more for them than our competitors.”
The music business has changed dramatically since UMG’s last CMD presentation in 2021. TikTok became the de facto way to break new artists. Vinyl sales exploded. Labels got better at selling directly to fans. Subscription services finally raised their prices. Artificial intelligence quickly became both public enemy No. 1 and the next big opportunity. Companies made a staggering number of investments in developing markets.
UMG’s task was to show it had a believable vision for the future. Given everything the company laid out, Grainge was able to do that when he told investors that “we are nowhere close to achieving the full potential of our business.”
Investors will want to see results first, though. In a week when stock markets rallied after the U.S. Federal Reserve chopped interest rates, UMG’s share price dropped 3.6%.