Music Stocks
Strong earnings releases from Live Nation, CTS Eventim and Cloud Music clashed with a downturn in the market this week. The most notable release of the week came from Live Nation, which reported record revenue of $23.1 billion in 2024 and forecast a healthy stadium business in 2025.
Still, Live Nation shares fell 1.9% on Friday (Feb. 21) after Thursday’s earnings release and finished the week down 2.8% to $148.48. The stock had gained 19.7% in the first seven weeks of the year, however, and expectations for a strong quarterly report and 2025 outlook were likely priced into the shares. More telling is Live Nation’s 56.8% increase over the previous 52 weeks, suggesting that investors are convinced the company has a winning combination of concerts, ticketing, and sponsorships and advertisements.
A bevy of analysts upped their Live Nation price targets following the company’s earnings release on Thursday (Feb. 20), including Evercore ISI (to $180 from $160), JP Morgan (to $170 from $150), Jefferies (to $180 from $150) and Rosenblatt (to $174 from $146). Ahead of the company’s earnings report, Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $170 from $150 and Seaport Global Securities raised Live Nation shares to $170 from $157. A dissenting voice came from CFRA, which has a “sell” rating on Live Nation shares and this week increased its price target to $135 from $115.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) fell 2.9% to 2,674.34, marking its first decline in seven weeks and only its second weekly loss of 2025. Only six of the 20 stocks gained ground while 14 finished the week in negative territory. Even so, music stocks are performing well this year. Only four of the 20 stocks have lost value in 2025 and the BGMI has gained 25.9% year to date.
U.S. stocks cratered on Friday amidst a drop in consumer sentiment, an uptick in inflation expectations and worries the economy may be slowing. The Dow dropped 1.7%, the S&P 500 also fell 1.7% and the Nasdaq composite sank 2.2%. Summing up the market’s tenuous mood, Steve Cohen, CEO of hedge fund Point72, told the FII Priority Summit on Friday that tariffs, sharp cuts in government spending and slowing immigration will have negative consequences. “It may only last a year or so, but it’s definitely a period where I think the best gains have been had and wouldn’t surprise me to see a significant correction,” he said.
The best-performing music stock of the week was Chinese music streaming company Cloud Music, which jumped 18.1% on Friday and ended the week up 20% after the company’s 2024 earnings release on Thursday showed a 22% jump in music subscription revenue. At 170.70 HKD ($21.97), Cloud Music is up 52.1% year to date. Another Chinese music streamer, Tencent Music Entertainment, rose 5.6% to $14.40.
CTS Eventim shares rose 4.7% to 104.00 euros ($108.83) after the company announced record results for 2024 on Tuesday (Feb. 18). Consolidated revenue increased 19.1% to 2.81 billion euros ($2.94 billion) and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), a common measure of profitability, jumped 21.9% to 444.8 million euros ($465 million). Live entertainment revenue rose 17.6% to 1.97 billion euros ($2.06 billion) while ticketing revenue climbed 22.7% to 879.9 million euros ($921 million).
Spotify fell 4.8% to $607.36 while Warner Music Group dropped 2.9% to $35.26 and Universal Music Group was down 3.0% to 28.02 euros ($29.32). Sphere Entertainment Co., which will announce quarterly earnings on Feb. 28, lost 2.8% and sister company MSG Entertainment fell 5.0%.
Most K-pop stocks rose this week as South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 2.5%. YG Entertainment rose 12.0% to 57,900 ($40.30) following the announcement on Wednesday (Feb. 19) of BLACKPINK’s 10-city 2025 world tour that commences in July and stops in Seoul, Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Toronto, Paris, London, Milan, Barcelona and Tokyo. SM Entertainment shares rose 7.8% to 99,500 KRW ($69.25), bringing its year-to-date gain to 37.1%. JYP Entertainment rose 1.6% and HYBE fell 1.0%.
For more than a year, record labels and publishers have seen investors pour into streaming stocks — namely Spotify — while downplaying the potential benefits rights owners will accrue from rising subscription prices. Now, Universal Music Group (UMG) and Warner Music Group (WMG) are getting some attention as analysts are optimistic about the terms of new licensing agreements Spotify reached with the companies.
WMG shares rose 10.9% to $36.20 a week after the company released fiscal first-quarter results. This week, the stock got a boost when Citi raised its WMG price target to $42 from $34 and upgraded the stock to a “buy” rating from “neutral.” As Morningstar explained last week, WMG is a “primary beneficiary of the ongoing growth” in the music industry. At $36.20, WMG shares have gained 17.0% in 2025 and are only slightly below their 52-week high of $36.64 set in February 2024. WMG shares fell 13.4% in 2024.
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At UMG, shares rose 7.1% to 28.89 euros ($30.32), the stock’s highest closing price since May 27, 2024. Morgan Stanley analysts have been making the case that UMG is undervalued given Spotify’s soaring share price and this week raised its UMG price target to 42 euros ($44.07) from 36 euros ($37.78). Recent licensing deals with Spotify and Amazon “increases our confidence that its subscription growth will accelerate” from approximately 5% at the start of 2025 to “closer to 15%” at the beginning of 2026, they wrote in a Monday (Feb. 10) investor note. After falling 4.2% in 2024, UMG shares are up 20.8% in 2025.
WMG and UMG were among the best performers on the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) this week. The BGMI rose 4.6% to a record 2,755.53, bringing its year-to-date gain to 29.7%. Only two stocks lost ground while one was unchanged and 17 posted gains for the week. The index outperformed the Nasdaq composite (up 2.6%), the S&P 500 (up 1.5%), the FTSE 100 (up 0.4%), China’s SSE Composite Index (up 1.3%) and South Korea’s KOSPI composite index (flat versus the previous week).
Live Nation reached an all-time high of $152.94 on Friday (Feb. 14) before closing at $153.76, up 3.7% for the week. Ahead of the concert promoter’s earnings results on Thursday (Feb. 20,) Wolfe Research increased its price target to $175 from $160 and Goldman Sachs raised it to $166 from $148.
Streaming services fared well, too. Spotify rose another 2.4% to $637.73 and reached a new all-time high of $652.63 on Thursday (Feb. 13). Fewer than seven weeks into 2025, Spotify shares have gained 36.7%. Elsewhere on the streaming front, Cloud Music rose 9.1% to 142.20 HKD ($18.01) and Tencent Music Entertainment gained 8.7% to $13.63.
Music streamer LiveOne had the week’s biggest loss after falling 20.5% to $0.93. On Thursday, the company announced that its revenue fell 6% in the fiscal third quarter. LiveOne also lowered revenue and earnings guidance for its full year, causing shares to end the day down 18.6%. The other streaming loser was Abu Dhabi-based Anghami, which fell 2.7% to $0.71.
Satellite radio broadcaster SiriusXM shares rose 6.6% to $27.11, bringing its year-to-date gain to 21.2%. This week, Deutsche Bank raised its price target to $27 from $25.
Most K-pop companies finished the week in positive territory. HYBE shares rose 5.8% and reached their highest mark since July 2023. SM Entertainment, which reported a 9% increase in revenue this week, increased 5.4%. JYP Entertainment improved 4.2% and YG Entertainment fell 1.3%.
Spotify led all music stocks this week with a 13.6% gain after its fourth-quarter earnings results on Tuesday (Feb. 4) showed that the company posted its first-ever net profit. The streamer’s share price reached an all-time high of $632.41 on Friday (Feb. 7) before closing at $622.99, slightly lower than its closing prices on Wednesday ($626.00) and Thursday ($625.87). Fewer than six weeks into 2025, the Swedish streaming company’s stock has risen 39.3%.
With 203.8 million shares outstanding, according to its 2024 annual report released this week, Spotify’s market capitalization briefly reached $128.9 billion. A week ago, Spotify was worth nearly as much as the three major music groups. As of Friday, after gaining another 13.6%, Spotify is worth more than Universal Music Group (UMG), Sony Music and Warner Music Group (WMG) combined.
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Guggenheim was among a host of analysts to increase its Spotify price target, raising the streaming company’s shares to $675 from $520 and increasing its forecast for 2025 operating income to 2.61 billion euros ($2.7 billion) from 2.46 billion euros ($2.54 billion). Others that raised their price targets for Spotify were Evercore ISI (to $700 from $500), Morgan Stanley (to $670 from $550), DA Davidson (to $680 from $350) and Deutsche Bank (to $700 from $550).
Led by Spotify, the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) rose 7.7% to a record 2,635.41, bringing its year-to-date gain to 24.0%. The index’s most valuable companies were among the 13 gainers while the seven companies that lost ground have relatively small market capitalizations. In contrast to music stocks’ gains, major indexes were muted this week. In the U.S., the Nasdaq composite index and S&P 500 fell 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively. In the U.K., the FTSE 100 rose 0.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index gained 3.0%. China’s SSE Composite Index was up 1.6%.
Chinese music streamer Cloud Music had the week’s second-best performance, rising 6.6% to 130.30 HKD ($16.73). SiriusXM was third-best after rising 6.0% to $25.44. Another Chinese music streaming company, Tencent Music Entertainment, improved 4.7% to $12.54. And K-pop companies all fared well: SM Entertainment was up 4.9%, HYBE improved 4.2% and JYP Entertainment rose 3.6%.
While record labels and publishers have benefitted from Spotify’s price increases, their stock prices haven’t followed the same trajectory. WMG gained 2.9% to $32.72 following its quarterly earnings report on Thursday (Feb. 6) and is up 5.5% year to date. Reservoir Media, which released earnings on Wednesday (Feb. 5) and raised its full-year guidance, closed the week down 4.2% to $7.96 and has lost 12.0% in 2025. UMG, which will announce its fourth-quarter earnings on March 6, rose 0.1% to $26.98 and is up 9.1% year-to-date.
MSG Entertainment gained 1.1% to $36.73. On Thursday (Feb. 6), the concert promoter reported that revenue increased 1% to $407.4 million and adjusted operating income improved 2% to $164 million in the fiscal second quarter ended December 31, 2024. Event-related revenue fell $22.5 million due to lower revenue from concerts and a drop in other live entertainment at the company’s venues.
LiveOne had the largest decline of the week, falling 19.3% to $1.17. The music streaming company will announce earnings on Feb. 14.
Spotify’s share price continues to soar in 2025 following a massive gain in 2024, making the music streaming company’s $109.3 billion market capitalization worth about the same as every standalone, publicly traded music company from which it licenses music combined — with nearly enough left over to include concert promoter Live Nation.
Based on closing prices Monday (Feb. 3), Universal Music Group has a market cap — the value of outstanding shares — of $51.1 billion, amounting to less than half of Spotify’s. The other standalone, publicly traded “multi-sector” music companies covering record labels and music publishers total another $27.8 billion: Warner Music Group ($16.6 billion), HYBE ($6.5 billion), JYP Entertainment ($1.8 billion), Believe ($1.5 billion), SM Entertainment ($1.3 billion), YG Entertainment ($646 million), Reservoir Media ($522 million) and Avex ($421 million). That brings the multi-sector aggregate market cap to $80.4 billion. If you add Live Nation’s $33.6 billion market cap to the multi-sector group, the combined market cap exceeds Spotify by just $4.7 billion.
Additionally, if you add the market cap of Sony Music – which is part of the Sony Corp. conglomerate and doesn’t trade as a standalone company – to UMG and WMG’s, the three major music groups’ aggregate market cap isn’t much more than Spotify’s. Importantly, if Sony Music was independent of Sony Corp, its value would be comparable to that of UMG. In the past four quarters, the two companies have had almost equal revenues on a dollar basis — $11.6 billion for UMG to $11.59 billion for Sony Music. Assuming the companies have similar margins and growth prospects, Sony Music’s market cap could — but would not necessarily — equal UMG’s $51.1 billion. Add WMG, and the three majors have a combined market cap of $118.8 billion — just $9.5 billion more than Spotify’s market cap at the end of trading on Monday.
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This imbalance between Spotify and music companies’ values hasn’t always existed. A move into podcasting and a pandemic-led growth spurt pushed Spotify’s stock above $380 in February 2021. The frothy times didn’t last long, however. Investors who were previously attracted to streaming companies’ high growth rates eventually demanded more financial discipline. When Spotify shares fell to an all-time low of $69.29 on Nov. 4, 2022, its roughly $13.3 billion market cap was less than a third of UMG’s $40.9 billion. But layoffs and price increases turbocharged Spotify’s financial statements and sent its share price into a new stratosphere. In 2023, the company laid off roughly a quarter of its full-time staff and implemented the first of two price increases. In 2024, Spotify’s share price rose 138.1%. Last month, it jumped another 22.6%.
Today, Spotify’s market value puts it in a rarefied air amongst entertainment companies. Netflix — which has 302 million subscribers globally to Spotify’s 252 million, and much higher prices — currently has a market cap of $418.8 billion. Walt Disney, which spans streaming, cable TV networks and theme parks, is worth $206.1 billion. Sony Corp, a huge company that includes games, movies, TV and hardware, has a market cap of $133.7 billion. Telecommunications giant Comcast, owner of NBCUniversal and cable company Xfinity, is worth $126.7 billion. Spotify is worth more than Warner Bros. Discovery ($24.9 billion), sports gambling company DraftKings ($20.2 billion) and video game companies Nintendo ($87.6 billion), Roblox ($46.4 billion) and Electronic Arts ($32.2 billion).
In a banner week for music stocks, record labels and music publishers posted gains after Universal Music Group (UMG) signed a new licensing deal with Spotify and Amazon announced further price increases for its music streaming service.
UMG gained 11.2% to 26.94 euros ($27.91) after the company announced it renewed its licensing deal with Spotify for its record labels and music publishing. According to the company, the agreement will allow for “new paid subscription tiers,” such as Spotify’s anticipated high-priced superfan offering, and bundling of music and non-music content. UMG also got a boost from news that Amazon is raising prices on its Amazon Music Unlimited on-demand service in the U.S., U.K. and Canada. After the week’s gain, UMG had recovered nearly all of the 24% decline it suffered after its second-quarter earnings results showed lower-than-expected streaming growth.
Morgan Stanley analysts called it “an important and positive week” for investors in companies that operate in the music streaming space. Warner Music Group (WMG) rose 6.7% to $31.80 as investors likely assumed the company will follow UMG and negotiate a mutually beneficial licensing deal with Spotify later this year. Both Believe and Reservoir Media rose 2%.
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Spotify rose another 7.5% to a new record closing price of $548.55 after multiple analysts raised their price targets and the streaming giant emerged victorious in a U.S. court case over a tactic employed to lower its royalty obligations. The streaming company’s stock reached as high as $560.36 on Friday (Jan. 31), valuing the company’s market capitalization at approximately $111 billion. More analysts hiked their price targets ahead of Spotify’s earnings call on Tuesday (Feb. 4). Deutsche Bank increased its Spotify price target on Monday to $550 from $535, while Citi raised it to $540 from $500.
Music stocks have produced strong gains just one month into the new year. This week, the 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) rose 6.4% to a record 2,447.97. Just two of the index’s 20 stocks lost ground while one was unchanged and 17 posted gains. The index’s third-straight weekly gain was the best of the year and the best single-week performance since the BGMI gained 6.8% in the week ended July 21, 2023. Just 31 days into 2025, the index is up 15.2% and is outpacing major indexes such as the Nasdaq composite (up 1.6%), S&P 500 (up 2.7%) and FTSE 100 (up 6.1%).
Aside from Spotify, other streaming companies posted large gains. LiveOne, the week’s greatest gainer, jumped 20.8% to $1.45 after CEO Robert Ellin announced — from President Trump’s The Mar-a-Lago Club — that LiveOne had surpassed 700,000 Tesla users, half of which are free, ad-supported users. Chinese music streaming company Cloud Music also improved, with its stock up 8.4% to 112.20 HKD ($14.40), after the company announced it had reached a “preliminary” agreement with K-pop company SM Entertainment to keep the K-pop company’s catalog at the platform. Paris-based Deezer rose 9.6% to 1.26 euros ($1.31). Abu Dhabi-based Anghami improved 4.2% to $0.75.
SiriusXM rose 9.3% to $24.01 after the company’s fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday (Jan. 30) showed a drop in revenue and subscribers but gross margins and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EDITDA) that were in line with guidance. For full-year 2025, SiriusXM expects slight declines in both revenue and adjusted EBITDA but an increase in free cash flow to $1.15 billion from $1.02 billion in 2024. Ahead of the company’s earnings, Deutsche Bank lowered its price target to $25 from $28.
Sphere Entertainment Co. shares rose 8.5% to $46.60, with Guggenheim raising the company’s price target to $69 from $64 and maintaining its “buy” rating. Sister company MSG Entertainment, which will announce earnings on Thursday (Feb. 6), rose just 0.1% to $36.34.
iHeartMedia had the week’s largest decline, dropping 8.3% to $2.22, after posting gains in previous weeks. iHeartMedia shares are up 12.1% year to date.
Investors are betting there’s more gas in Spotify’s tank as the streaming company’s stock price reached an all-time high of $511.98 on Friday (Jan. 24) and finished the week at a record closing price of $510.43, up 5.1% from the previous week. Friday’s closing price valued the company at $101.6 billion, an increase of $5 billion in one week.
Spotify shares are off to a fast start in 2025 — rising 14.1% over the 15 trading days so far — after gaining 138.1% in 2024. The Stockholm-based streaming company is forecasting 665 million monthly active users, an increase of 25 million from the prior quarter, and 260 million premium subscribers, up from 252 million in the third quarter. Spotify’s fast-rising stock price mirrors the improvement in the company’s gross margin, which is forecasted to be 31.8% in the fourth quarter, up from 31.1% in the previous quarter.
Live Nation shares rose 3.8% to $140.74 on Friday, falling just shy of the all-time high of $141.18 reached on Nov. 25, 2024. On Thursday, Evercore raised its Live Nation price target to $160 from $150.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 3.5% to a new record of 2,303.31, bringing its gain in 2025 to 8.4%. That’s more than double the year-to-date gains of the S&P 500 (up 3.7%) and Nasdaq composite (up 3.3%). A dozen of the 20 music stocks finished the week in positive territory, with three exceeding 5% gains. Of the eight stocks that lost ground, just one fell more than 2%.
The week’s greatest gainer was Chinese music streamer Tencent Music Entertainment, which rose 7.4% to $11.59. On Tuesday (Jan. 21), Morgan Stanley upgraded Tencent Music to “overweight” from “equal weight.” K-pop company SM Entertainment also did well, gaining 7.1% to 84,000 won ($58.76), bringing its year-to-date increase to 11.1%.
Cumulus Media finished the week at $0.88, up 4.8%. The radio company’s shares soared nearly 17% on Thursday (Jan. 23) following news that Matthew Blank resigned from the Cumulus board and was replaced by Steven Galbraith, managing director of Kindred Capital Advisors and among the largest Cumulus shareholders.
SiriusXM shares fell 1.4% to $21.96. On Thursday, Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on the company to $21 from $23. SiriusXM has fallen 3.7% year-to-date and has lost 58.9% over the last 52 weeks.
The worst performer of the week was Deezer, which fell 7.3% to 1.15 euros ($1.21). Deezer shares have fallen 46.5% over the last 52 weeks and are already down 14.2% in 2025.
Stocks performed well globally as earnings season got off to a strong start. According to FactSet, 80% of companies that reported earnings thus far have exceeded expectations, beating the 10-year average of 75%. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite each gained 1.7%. South Korea’s KOSPI composite index improved 0.5% to 2,536.80. China’s Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.3% to 3,252.63. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 increased less than 1%.
SiriusXM kicks off music companies’ earnings releases on Thursday (Jan. 30). Elsewhere, Spotify announced its fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 4 while Warner Music Group follows on Feb. 6.
Led by SM Entertainment and JYP Entertainment, K-pop stocks soared above other music stocks in a strong week for markets in general. SM, home to such artists as Red Velvet and aespa, rose 13.8% to 78,400 won ($53.76) after news broke on Wednesday (Jan. 15) that the company will introduce a new girl group on Feb. 24. Meanwhile, JYP gained 6.7% to 76,400 won ($52.39), while YG Entertainment and HYBE rose 5.6% and 3.7%, respectively.
The gains made by K-pop companies in recent weeks have outpaced the overall Korean stock market. In the week ended Jan. 17, the four South Korean music companies had an average gain of 7.5%, beating the 0.3% gain of the KOSPI composite index, a measure of all stocks traded on South Korea’s exchange. South Korean stocks have rebounded from their low points since a declaration of martial law by South Korea’s prime minister on Dec. 3 that caused political turmoil and instability in the country’s market. The four K-pop companies are up an average of 20.6% from each company’s post-Dece. 3 low point, while KOSPI has gained 6.9% since hitting a low point on Dec. 9.
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The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index rose 4.7% to 2,226.11, its second-highest mark since reaching 2,280.51 on Dec. 6 and the third-highest one-week gain in the last year. Only four of the index’s 20 stocks posted losses while the remainder finished the week in positive territory. Radio companies led the way with an average gain of 13.3%. Multi-sector companies (labels and publishers such as Universal Music Group and Warner Music Group) gained 4.3%. Live music companies followed with a 3.6% gain. Streaming companies had an average loss of 1.1%.
Stocks were helped by news that the consumer price index, a widely used measure of inflation faced by consumers, rose a lower-than-expected 3.2% in December. The producer price index, a measure of wholesale prices, also beat expectations by rising just 0.2% last month. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite rose 2.4% to 19,630.20 and the S&P 500 had its best week since the presidential election, gaining 2.9% to 5,996.66. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 3.1% to 8,505.22. China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 2.3% to 3,241.82.
iHeartMedia was the top music performer of the week, rising 23.9% to $2.33 in the absence of major news. The only significant public development was Barclays’s announcement through a regulatory filing on Friday that it increased its stake in the radio giant by 513% in the third quarter. Cumulus Media rose 9.1% to $0.84. The other radio company, satellite broadcaster SiriusXM, gained 6.9% to $22.27.
Spotify shares rose 5.7% to $485.53 on Friday after surpassing $500 per share on Thursday (Jan. 16) — marking only the second time Spotify shares have hit the $500 mark in intraday trading. Investors reacted positively to UBS increasing its Spotify price target on Wednesday (Jan. 15) to $540 from $485. Then on Friday, Wolfe Research downgraded Spotify to “peer perform” from “outperform,” helping Spotify shares fall 1%.
Concert promoter Live Nation rose 5.5% to $135.61. The stock peaked at $136.21 on Friday, its highest point since Dec. 17 and just 3.5% below its 52-week high of $141.18. Live Nation will co-produce the FireAid benefit concerts to benefit victims of the wildfires in Los Angeles. The Azoff family and AEG are also producers of the concerts, which will be held on Jan. 30 at the Kia Forum and Intuit Dome.
Abu Dhabi-based music streaming company Anghami was the week’s worst performer after dropping 10.3% to $0.70, while French music streamer Deezer fell 5.3% to 1.24 euros ($1.28) and LiveOne shares fell 1.7% to $1.18. LiveOne announced on Thursday that it has reached 500,000 Tesla users and projects to reach 550,000 Tesla owners — including 150,000 new ad-supported subscribers — by Feb. 1.
Pershing Square Holdings chief Bill Ackman won’t get his wish of a Universal Music Group (UMG) de-listing from the Euronext Amsterdam exchange, but the hedge fund king’s push for a UMG listing on a U.S. exchange will nevertheless come to fruition in 2025. UMG announced Wednesday (Jan. 15) that Pershing Square and some of its […]
HYBE and JYP Entertainment were among the few music stocks to make gains this week as markets stumbled globally. HYBE, home to BTS and its members’ solo projects, rose 7.2% to 215,500 won ($146.19), its best closing price since Nov. 20, thanks to Friday’s news that BTS member J-Hope willsoon release new music and commence a world tour starting in Seoul on Feb. 28. JYP Entertainment, which has had global success with Stray Kids and ITZY, rose 5.6% to 71,600 won ($48.57) after the company announced it will launch a new boy band, Kickflip, on Jan. 20.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index (BGMI) slipped 1.4% to 2,126.33, marketing the fourth time in five weeks the index has lost value. Only five of the 20 stocks finished the week in positive territory. Other than HYBE and JYP Entertainment, only CTS Eventim (up 3.4%), Believe (up 3.2%) and Universal Music Group (up 1.1%) posted gains. Three stocks (Cumulus Media, Deezer and Anghami) were unchanged while 12 stocks had losing weeks.
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Music stocks were dragged down by numerous market forces this week. Stocks fell sharply on Friday (Jan. 10) following healthy employment numbers that investors likely interpreted to mean the U.S. Federal Reserve would not seek to lower interest rates at its meetings in January or March. Also, data from the University of Michigan released Friday showed consumers’ expectations for future inflation rose to 3.3% from 2.8%. In the United States, the Nasdaq composite fell 2.3% to 19,161.63 and the S&P 500 dropped 1.9% to 5,827.04. In the United Kingdom, the FTSE 100 rose 0.3% to 8,248.49. China’s Shanghai Composite Index dipped 1.3% to 3,168.52. South Korea was an outlier as the KOSPI composite index rose 3.0%.
Warner Music Group (WMG) shares dropped 5.4% to $29.33 after three analysts lowered their price targets ahead of WMG’s quarterly earnings release on Feb. 6. Guggenheim lowered its WMG price target to $40 from $44 after taking into account an expected 1.5% foreign exchange impact on the latest quarter’s revenue and a 1.7% impact on revenue for the full fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2025. Guggenheim also dropped its recorded music licensing estimate while maintaining its recorded music subscription revenue growth forecast in the “high single-digit” range. Evercore lowered WMG shares to $35 from $36. UBS lowered WMG to $41 from $43 and maintained its “neutral” rating.
Spotify, which announces fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 4, fell 1.5% to $459.53. Goldman Sachs raised its Spotify price target this week to $550 from $490. Spotify shares have fallen in five of the last six weeks and are 9.3% below the all-time high of $506.47 set on Dec. 4.
Music streaming company LiveOne had the index’s biggest decline, dropping 12.4% to $1.20. Radio broadcaster iHeartMedia fell 11.7% to $1.88. SiriusXM continued its losing streak, sinking 6.8% to $20.83. SiriusXM shares fell 58.3% in 2024 and have dropped 16.4% in the last three months. K-pop company SM Entertainment sank 5.1% to 68,900 won ($46.74).
When it came to music stocks in 2024, there was Spotify, and then there was everything else.
The Swedish music streaming company not only had the top-performing music stock of the year, but its share price’s gain nearly tripled the next best company. Despite ending the year on a four-week losing streak during a downturn that eroded an otherwise spectacular year for many markets and indexes, Spotify’s share price jumped 138.1% to $447.38 in 2024.
Layoffs and price increases in 2023 did wonders for Spotify’s financial statements. Headcount was reduced by about 25%, eliminating the bloat gained during a pandemic-era hiring spree that mirrored a boom in subscriber gains. At the same time, Spotify broke with its long-standing tradition of leaving prices untouched by hiking fees in the U.S. and many other major markets — followed by a second price hike in 2024 in the U.S. and U.K. After more than a decade of adding features and expanding editorial programming, the streaming giant believed it could finally raise prices without its customers fleeing to competitors (many of whom raised their prices before Spotify). It was right.
The one-two punch quickly produced results. Perpetually unable to turn a profit, Spotify went from an average quarterly operating loss of 112 million euros ($121 million) in 2023 to an average quarterly operating profit of 296 million euros ($322 million) in the first three quarters of 2024. Gross margin (revenue less cost of sales) shot up, too, from 24.1% in the second quarter of 2023 (the last period before the first price increase) to 31.1% in the third quarter of 2024. Subscribers didn’t just stick around, they grew in numbers, from 220 million before the first price increases to 252 million on Sept. 30, 2024.
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Investors have rewarded Spotify for becoming a more efficient business without sacrificing the product quality necessary in a competitive market. An investment in Spotify on Nov. 4, 2022, when the share price reached an all-time low of $69.29, would have returned 446% by the end of 2024. For a brief time in early December, Spotify’s market capitalization surpassed $100 billion.
The 20-company Billboard Global Music Index gained 38.5% in 2024, easily besting the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (up 28.6%), the S&P 500 (up 23.3%), the Shanghai Composite Index (up 12.7%) and the FTSE 100 (up 5.7%). Because the index is unweighted, Spotify, the index’s largest company by market value, was responsible for much of that improvement. Without Spotify’s gain, the index would have risen just 2.5%.
Streaming and live music accounted for eight of the 10 music stocks that posted gains in 2024, reflecting these companies’ ability to capture the financial benefits of consumers’ willingness to spend more on music. Despite Spotify’s enormous improvement, live music was the best segment with an average gain of 24.8%. Live Nation was the index’s second-best performer with a 38.3% gain, besting German promoter CTS Eventim (up 30.4%), Sphere Entertainment Co. (up 18.6%) and MSG Entertainment (up 11.8%). These companies have benefitted from music fans’ ability to withstand consistently higher prices. Last year, the average ticket price for the top 100 tours was $132.30, up from $119.64 in 2023, according to Billboard Boxscore.
Music streaming stocks posted an average gain of 23.0%. Chinese music streaming companies Cloud Music and Tencent Music Entertainment gained 27.2% and 26.0%, respectively, and U.S.-based LiveOne gained 5.0%. Abu Dhabi-based Anghami and French streamer Deezer were exceptions to music streaming’s banner year. Anghami fell 21.2% while Deezer slipped 37.1%.
Record labels and music publishers — here classified as multi-sector companies — continued to expand their revenue in 2024 but didn’t have the momentum of live and streaming companies. Universal Music Group (UMG) fell 4.2% even though its sales through the third quarter reached 8.4 billion euros ($9.1 billion), up 6.3% from the prior-year period. Warner Music Group (WMG) dropped 13.4% after its revenue for the fiscal year ended Sept. 30 rose 6% to $6.4 billion. Both companies’ recorded music streaming revenue grew nicely, too — 7.3% for UMG and 6.9% for WMG — but investors rewarded streaming companies, not record labels, for subscriber and pricing gains.
K-pop companies were down across the board in 2024. HYBE, SM Entertainment, YG Entertainment and JYP Entertainment lost an average of 19.0% last year after gaining an average of 30.0% the prior year. Some of the decrease can likely be attributed to sharp profit declines and uneven revenue growth in recent quarters, though it can also be attributed to the rough year for South Korean stocks in general. The KOSPI composite index dropped 9.6% and was already in poor shape when South Korean Prime Minister Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law on Dec. 3.
French music company Believe is an outlier in the multi-sector category, though most of its 37.1% gain can be attributed to the deal in June that took the company private at a 21% premium. Another notable outlier is Reservoir Media, which gained 26.9% without the benefit of a transaction to boost the share price. Instead, Reservoir shares were helped by activist investor Irenic Capital Management LP, which took an 8.1% stake in September and called on the “undervalued” company to “undertake a full review of all alternatives” to maximize shareholder value. From the date of Irenic Capital’s regulatory filing to the end of the year, Reservoir Media shares rose 17.8% while other multi-sector stocks either barely improved or lost value.
Radio companies have not been darlings of Wall Street in recent years, and 2024 was no exception. For all the optimism espoused by broadcast and satellite radio companies, they continue to struggle in an increasingly streaming-based world. The worst-performing music stock of the year was Cumulus Media, which fell 87.4% to $0.67. Through September, Cumulus’ revenue was down 2.4% and its net loss more than doubled. SiriusXM fell 58.3%, with much of that decline coming after the company announced plans to focus on in-car satellite listening after its streaming app, launched in late 2023, failed to catch on with consumers. iHeartMedia dropped 25.8% but ended the year on a high note after exchanging much of its long-term debt to extend maturity dates.