market share
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Through the first three months of 2023, two albums have largely defined the year and had a profound effect on the record label market share rankings for the first quarter: Morgan Wallen’s One Thing At a Time, on Republic; and SZA’s S.O.S., on RCA. Combined, the albums have spent all but two weeks atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this year and have contributed significantly to major gains for their respective labels.
In terms of current market share — albums released in the past 18 months — Republic Records has had a white-hot start, posting a 12.45% mark and besting the second-highest label, Interscope Geffen A&M (7.75%), by nearly five full percentage points. While Republic has continued to benefit from an exceptionally strong fourth quarter of 2022 — Q4 releases like Taylor Swift’s Midnights, Metro Boomin’s Heroes & Villains and Drake & 21 Savage’s Her Loss are all in the top 10 most-consumed albums of 2023 so far — much of that increase can be attributed to Wallen’s album. One Thing At a Time is so big that Wallen’s Republic label partner, Big Loud Records, would have ranked as the No. 8 label in current share in Q1 if it were broken out on its own, having posted a 2.84% share so far in the year. (Republic’s market share encompasses Big Loud, Island, Cash Money, Mercury and indie distributor Imperial.) In fact, the first-week impact of Wallen’s album was so large that it boosted Republic’s single-week current market share from 9.76% the week before it came out to 18.14% the week it debuted, meaning that nearly one in every five album consumption units that week was a Republic Records release.
Meanwhile, the SZA album, which has topped the Billboard 200 for eight non-consecutive weeks in 2023 so far, helped catapult RCA to a 5.76% current market share in Q1 this year. That’s up from 4.34% this time last year and lands it in fifth place, only slightly behind its Sony sister label Columbia at 5.85%. That’s significant enough for RCA on its own — rarely, if ever, has it placed above Columbia in current share in any quarter in recent years — but alongside strong new releases like the Miley Cyrus album Endless Summer Vacation on Columbia, as well as the continuing success of releases from 2022 from Bad Bunny (Un Verano Sin Ti, The Orchard), Harry Styles (Harry’s House, Columbia), Beyoncé (Renaissance, Columbia) and Future (I Never Liked You, Epic), it’s helped push Sony Music Entertainment to a 28.46% current share in Q1. That’s up from 24.0% at this point last year and places Sony at its highest mark since the end of 2016, according to Luminate.
Those are the biggest takeaways from a first quarter that has thrown up plenty of surprises so far, as labels have settled into another year of a changing marketplace. Sony’s surge has seen the second-largest major close the gap in current share on market leader Universal Music Group, which essentially held steady at 33.59% in Q1 2023 from 33.58% at the same point last year. The indie sector also had a strong quarter of releases, accounting for 21.15% of the market, while Warner Music Group came in at 16.81% in current share. (Warner and the indies do not have a direct year-over-year comparison due to WMG-owned distributor ADA being shifted under Warner’s umbrella midway through 2022.)
In current share, Interscope and Atlantic both receded from the first quarter of 2022 to 7.75% (from 8.91% last year) and 7.22% (from 10.57% last year), respectively, coming in second and third. (Interscope’s market share encompasses Verve Label Group, while Atlantic’s includes the combined 300 Elektra Entertainment Group). Surrounding RCA on the list is a trio of labels who all also boosted their current market share year over year, with Columbia coming in fourth (5.85%, up from 5.78%), Capitol Music Group coming in sixth (5.56%, up from 4.13%) and Warner Records finishing in seventh (5.23%, up from 4.22%), marking encouraging starts for those labels over the first quarter of 2022. (Columbia’s share includes some labels from indie distributor RED; Capitol includes Motown/Quality Control, Astralwerks, Blue Note and indie distributor Virgin; and Warner Records includes catalog label Rhino, Warner Latin and the bulk of Warner Nashville.)
Coming in eighth in current share is Sony Nashville at 2.30%, bolstered by the continued success of Luke Combs and his brand new album, Growin’ Old. That’s up big from the 1.51% it had in Q1 last year before Growin’ Up was released last April. In ninth place is Epic Records, which at 2.06% saw a boost from 1.83% at this point in 2022. Sony Music Latin rounded out the top 10 among current share with 1.92%.
In overall market share, which factors in current as well as a label’s catalog, Universal Music Group’s dominance extends to more than 10 percentage points, at 37.65% over Sony’s 27.62%. That gap has narrowed, however, as Sony picked up nearly two full percentage points year over year, posting its best number since the end of 2016. Warner, in overall share, flipped back above the indies, at 18.55%, with the latter posting 16.81% for the first quarter.
Among the individual labels, Interscope was No. 1 in overall share, at 9.44%, coming in just ahead of Republic’s 9.16%. That represents a slight dip for IGA (9.76% in Q1 last year), while Republic’s strong current share boosted it significantly from the 7.91% it posted in the first quarter of 2022, when it came in third. Dropping from second to third in overall share this year is Atlantic, at 8.31%, down from 9.49% this time last year.
Also making a jump in overall share is Capitol, which rebounded from sixth at this point last year to reach fourth in overall share in Q1 this year with 6.68%, up from 5.91% in 2022. Following in fifth and sixth are Columbia (6.55%) and Warner (6.38%), respectively, each up slightly year over year. RCA’s strong current figure this year allows it to stay in seventh, albeit with a larger 5.50% versus 4.92% in Q1 2022. Epic (2.63%) and Sony Nashville (2.03%) follow in eighth and ninth, while Def Jam’s stronger catalog figure lands it in 10th at 1.96% overall.
Additional Notes
— Because 300 Elektra Entertainment’s market share is included under Atlantic, they were excluded from breaking out in the rankings so as to not double count the figures. But its combined overall share comes out to 2.24%, which would have been good enough for ninth overall on its own. And that’s without digging into the success of Bailey Zimmerman, who has a top 10 record on the Hot 100 right now with “Rock And a Hard Place.” Zimmerman is signed to Elektra, which has its market share run through Atlantic, but is worked at radio through Warner Nashville, which has its market share split between Warner Records and Atlantic.
— Island, which runs through Republic, had a 1.51% overall share on its own, which would have been good enough for 15th had it been broken out thanks to a current share that has grown from 0.51% to 0.70% year over year. Similarly, Motown, which runs through Capitol, came in at 1.04% overall, driven by a big leap in current share from 0.71% in Q1 last year to 1.48% in Q1 this year thanks to releases from Lil Yachty and Lil Baby, among others.
— Elsewhere, Alamo continued punching high. Despite the fact that it’s the youngest label with probably the smallest roster of any label that made the rankings, it ranked 15th in current market share, at 0.88%, higher than several much larger and older labels.
Global music sales rose for the eighth consecutive year in 2022, with recorded music revenues growing in every world market and across almost all formats, according to the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry’s (IFPI) “Global Music Report 2023.”
Total revenues climbed to $26.2 billion, a rise of 9% on the previous year. Although that rate of growth is half 2021 year’s rise, when revenues were up 18.5% year-on-year, IFPI said it was still the fourth highest growth level the recorded music business has seen this millennium.
The leading driver of growth was a 10.3% rise in paid-for streaming subscription revenue, which totaled $12.7 billion last year. IFPI reports there were 589 million users of paid subscription accounts at the end of 2022, up from 523 million in the previous 12 months and 443 million in 2020.
Streaming (including paid subscription and advertising-supported) now accounts for 67% of sales across the music industry, up from 65% in 2021 and 62% in 2020, although rate of growth is slowing.
In 2021, streaming revenues rocketed 24% to $16.9 billion. Last year, total revenues streaming revenues increased 11.5% to $17.5 billion.
Despite the dominance of streaming, physical music formats continue to be resilient with CD and vinyl revenues increasing for a second consecutive year — albeit at a slower rate than 2021’s 16.1% rise, fueled by a post-pandemic boom in home music purchases — to $4.6 billion, up 4% on the prior year.
Within physical music revenues, last year’s growth in CD sales proved to be a fleeting uplift with revenues falling 0.4% in 2022. Vinyl revenues shot up 17.1% (IFPI did not provide revenue numbers for CD or vinyl sales).
In terms of market share, physical accounted for 17.5% of the overall market last year (down from 19.2% in 2021) with Asia generating almost half (49.8%) of all global revenues for physical music sales.
Performance rights revenue climbed 8.6% to $2.5 billion, representing 9.4% of global revenues, while sync income was up 22.3% to $0.6 billion, representing 2.4%.
Downloads and what IFPI classifies as other (non-streaming) digital formats was once again the only format channel to record a decline, falling 11.7% to $900 million and representing just 3.6% of the global market.
As per previous year’s reports, IFPI uses current exchange rates when compiling its Global Music Report, restating all historic local currency values on an annual basis. Market values therefore vary retrospectively as a result of foreign currency movements, says IFPI, which represents more than 8,000 record company members worldwide, including all three major labels, Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment and Warner Music Group.
Thanks to sustained growth in streaming, global recorded music revenues have now reached their highest level since 1999 — when music sales totaled $22.3 billion – on an absolute dollar basis, not accounting for inflation, reports IFPI. Piracy and declining physical sales saw the market bottom out at $13.1 billion in 2014.
“Record companies’ investment and innovation has helped make music even more globally interconnected than ever,” said IFPI chief executive Frances Moore in a statement, accompanying the report.
As the music economy grows, however, “so too do the areas in which record companies must work to ensure that the value of the music artists are creating is recognized and returned,” Moore warned.
Referring to the ongoing threat of music piracy, she said the challenges for record companies, artists and creators are “becoming increasingly complex as a greater number of actors seek to benefit from music whilst playing no part in investing in and developing it.”
Writing in the report’s foreword, Universal Music Group chairman and CEO Sir Lucian Grainge said “to succeed, music’s future must be artist-centric.” He called on the industry to focus on building a “robust, growing and sustainable music ecosystem” in which “creators of all music content, whether in the form of audio or short-form video, are fairly compensated and can therefore thrive for decades to come.”
IFPI’s Global Music Report 2023 Topline Figures:
Global music sales up 9% to $26.2 billion
Streaming subscription revenues up 10.3% to $12.7 billion
Total streaming revenues (including paid and ad-supported) up 11.5% to $17.5 billion
Physical revenues up 4% to $4.6 billion
Performance rights revenues rise 8.6% to $2.5 billion
589 million paid music subscribers
Streaming’s share of global music sales: 67%
In terms of world markets, the U.S. retains its number one position with music sales growing 4.8% and exceeding $10 billion in recorded music sales for the first time.
Japan holds steady in second place with sales growing 5.4% in 2022. The third and fourth-biggest markets for recorded music remain the United Kingdom (+5.4%) and Germany (+2.2%), respectively.
The rest of the top 10 is made up of China (+28.4%), which becomes a top five global market for the first time, France (+7.7%), South Korea, Canada (+8.1%), Brazil (+15.4%) and Australia (+8.1%).
IFPI said that music sales were up in all 62 of the global markets it tracks. The organization’s free-to-access report does not provide market-by-market revenue breakdowns.
On a regional basis, it was a similar story with revenues from the U.S. and Canada region up 5%, while Latin America – where streaming now accounts for 85.2% of the market — saw growth of 25.9%
The fastest-growing market region in 2022 was Sub-Saharan Africa, which recorded a 34.7% rise in music sales, largely driven by the booming music market in South Africa, where sales were up by more than 30% year-on-year.
Revenues in Middle East and North Africa, last year’s fastest growing region, rose by almost 24%, driven almost entirely by streaming, which has 95.5% share of the region’s recorded music market – the highest share for any region worldwide, reports IFPI.
Revenues in Europe, the second-largest recorded music region in the world after the U.S. and Canada, grew by 7.5% — compared to the prior year’s growth rate of 15.4% — driven by gains in Europe’s three biggest markets, the U.K., Germany and France. Asia grew by 15.4%.
With 2022 now officially in the books, the U.S. market share report is in: with Bad Bunny, Lil Nas X and Harry Styles leading the way, it was a banner year for Sony Music, as it gained in both overall market share and, more drastically, in current market share on the leading Universal Music Group, narrowing the gap among releases less than 18 months old to 6.58% in 2022 — a chasm that stood at 13.7% at the end of 2021.
But there was good news for UMG, too, as Republic Records rode a red-hot fourth quarter — led by Taylor Swift’s Midnights, the No. 2 album of all of 2022 despite only being released in October — to rank No. 1 among labels in current market share for the entirety of 2022, coming in at 10.38%. That makes it the only label to top double digits in the final ranking of the year. And UMG maintained a double-digit lead in overall market share over second-place Sony, leading 37.54% to 26.87% despite the latter’s gains throughout the year. Interscope Geffen A&M finished the year as the No. 1 label in overall market share once again, coming in at 9.63%, though it was down from the 10.08% share it held at the end of 2021.
Sony’s overall market share grew 0.76% year over year — up to 26.87% in 2022 from 26.11% in 2021 — marking a big stride forward for the music group. That gain was largely at the expense of Universal Music Group, which dropped 0.66% year over year, from 38.20% in 2021 to 37.54% at the end of 2022. Meanwhile, Warner Music Group’s market share grew from 16.06% in 2021 to 19.05% in 2022, though that is not an apples-to-apples comparison; this year, Warner-owned distributor ADA — which distributes dozens of independent labels — was factored into WMG’s market share, adding 2.96% to its total and accounting for almost all of Warner’s jump. (The move more accurately aligns Warner’s distributed market share with the other majors, which also include their distribution wings in their totals.) That switch also explains the commensurate dip for the indie sector, which fell from 19.63% in 2021 to 16.54% in 2022.
In current market share, Universal fell more than 4%, from 37.89% in 2021 to 33.57% in 2022, with all three other major players picking up that slack, led by Sony, which ballooned significantly almost 3 percentage points to 26.99% in 2022 — up from 24.19% in 2021. Warner — even taking into account the 3.32% in current share added by ADA — was also up, from 14.42% in 2021 to 18.30% in 2022 (an increase of 0.56% beyond the ADA bump), while the indie sector went from 23.50% last year to 21.14% in 2022, which is up 0.96% year over year when taking into account the loss of the ADA labels. Universal did, however, raise its catalog percentage from 38.33% in 2021 to 38.94% in 2022, while the other three all fell slightly.
Following Interscope in overall market share, Atlantic remained in second, at 8.89%, although it, too, was down slightly from 2021, when it posted a 9.17% overall share of the market. Republic ended the year in third — the only label in the top five to grow its overall market share year over year — with an 8.44% mark, up from 8.28% through the end of 2021, while Columbia (6.98%) and Capitol Music Group (6.40%) rounded out the top five. (A note on these labels: Interscope’s market share includes Verve [0.85%]; Atlantic’s includes the now-combined 300 Elektra Entertainment Group [2.35%], which would have been good enough for ninth place on its own; Republic’s includes Island [1.51%], Cash Money [0.71%], Big Loud, Imperial and Mercury; Columbia includes some indie labels from distributor RED; and Capitol includes Virgin [1.78%], Motown/Quality Control [1.05%], Capitol Christian Music Group [0.61%], Astralwerks and Blue Note.)
In sixth, Warner Records — which includes Rhino, Warner Latin and a chunk of Warner Nashville in its market share — grew year over year, from 6.16% in 2021 to 6.35% in 2022, having steadily increased its share each quarter of the year. RCA, whose market share stands alone, did the same; the label came in seventh, growing in each quarter to a finish of 5.12% — up from 4.89% in 2021 — wrapping the year strongly with the four-week No. 1 run of SZA’s S.O.S. In eighth, Epic Records also picked up market share, rising to 2.63% in 2022 from a 2.38% share in 2021. Def Jam, in ninth, faltered to 2.07%, down from 2.25% in 2021; while Sony Nashville jumped into 10th, leapfrogging UMG Nashville by growing its market share from 1.99% to 2.04% year over year.
UMG Nashville dropped to 11th, slipping from 2.04% in 2021 to 1.85% in 2022, while Concord jumped from 13th (1.68%) in 2021 to 12th (1.73%) in 2022. Disney — with its early-year Encanto boost — was up to 1.60% in 2022 from 1.40% the year before, good for 13th, while Universal Latin (1.47%) and Sony Latin (1.24%) rounded out the top 15, both up from the year prior as well.
Republic had a big fourth quarter (9.57%), with four major releases — Stray Kids’ Maxident, Swift’s Midnights, Drake and 21 Savage’s Her Loss and Metro Boomin’s Heroes & Villains, all of which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 — collectively topping the Billboard 200 for eight weeks. That helped boost its current market share from 8.77% through the first three quarters of the year to 10.38% by year’s end, with that late push taking it to No. 1 among all labels in terms of current market share in 2022.
Atlantic, in second place in current share, essentially maintained its level from last year, coming in at 9.15% (from 9.16% in 2021), though it moved up one spot from third place; while Interscope dropped sharply, from a stellar 11.05% in 2021 to 8.72% in 2022, falling from first to third. Columbia and Capitol, in fourth and fifth, respectively, both fell in share, the former from 6.83% to 6.67% and the latter from 5.64% to 4.97%; while Warner and RCA, in sixth and seventh, both grew in share, the former from 4.48% to 4.86% and the latter from 4.37% to 4.65%.
Outside the top seven labels, there was a bigger shakeup in current market share. Epic Records moved up to eighth place, gaining from a 2.04% current share in 2021 to 2.23% in 2022, while Sony Nashville jumped up to ninth, growing to 1.89% from 1.59% in 2021. Alamo made the biggest leap, all the way up to 10th in current share in 2021 at 1.56% in its first full year as a standalone Sony Music label; in 2021, its share was split between UMG and Sony as it was sold midway through the year, making an apples-to-apples comparison difficult. BMG, in 11th, held steady at 1.42%, while Disney, perhaps unsurprisingly, surged into 12th, up to 1.36% year over year from 0.52% in 2021. Def Jam, however, saw its current share sink from 2.21% in 2021 to 1.27% in 2022, finishing 13th, while Sony Latin (1.24%) and UMG Nashville (1.23%) rounded out the top 15.
As is generally the case, catalog market share tracked similarly to overall market share, as older titles generally perform consistently as a percentage of the market year over year. But both UMG and the indie sector grew year over year, while Sony and Warner, the latter accounting for the ADA switch, were both down slightly as well.