five burning questions

Five years ago, the Billboard 200 had never had a predominantly Spanish-language album top its rankings. Now, Bad Bunny has done it three albums in a row.
The recent SNL host’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana completes the hat trick this week, as the new set follows 2020’s El Último Tour Del Mundo and 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti to No. 1, debuting with 185,000 equivalent album units (while charting all 22 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100). Though the first-week number is easily tops for the week, it is down a decent amount from Verano, which bowed with 274,000 units in May 2022.

How does the Nadie Sabie debut compare to our expectations? And where do we rank Bad Bunny among the greatest pop stars of 2023? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana debuts with 185,000 first-week units — easily the top mark for the week, though nearly 90,000 shy of the 274,000 posted in May 2022 by Un Verano Sin Ti in its first frame. Is that 185,000 number higher, lower or about what you expected from the new album’s early performance?

Leila Cobo: Honestly, the number is a little lower than I expected, especially given that it had the most single-day Spotify streams of any 2023 album so far. Having said that, it’s still an enormous showing, and the fact that Benito has managed to score his third consecutive Spanish-language No. 1 on the Billboard 200 is a huge feat, unprecedented in Latin music. 

Kyle Denis: I would say it’s lower that what I was expecting. I wasn’t necessarily expecting a bigger debut than Un Verano Sin Ti, but after the unparalleled success of that album, I’m a bit shocked and underwhelmed by a decline of almost 90,000 units.

Isabela Raygoza: It’s possible that the 185,000-unit debut number for Nadie Sabe is slightly lower than some might have expected. However, it’s essential to recognize the remarkable feat of Bad Bunny maintaining a strong and lasting presence in the music industry. Even if the numbers didn’t quite match his previous albums, his influence on pop culture keeps expanding. The fact that he hosted and performed on SNL last Saturday, alongside icons like Mick Jagger and Lady Gaga, is a testament to his ever-rising star. So, while the sales figures may be a bit lower, his overall impact and significance continue to grow.

Jessica Roiz: From the get-go, I didn’t think this album would have higher numbers than Un Verano Sin Ti. I feel that last year, not only were many fans eagerly waiting for Un Verano to drop but it also garnered a whole new wave of curious listeners due to its very experimental titles that included merengue, dembow, bossa nova, and indie-pop. Nadie Sabe, on the other hand, is more niche and mostly all Latin trap, which might not be everyone’s cup of tea. However, one thing’s certain, Bad Bunny is a master at reclaiming his throne.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a little lower than I expected, though there was definitely a perfect-storm element to Verano‘s debut that I’m not surprised he didn’t quite match a second time. And what really defined the success of that album was more its endurance anyway — including 13 weeks atop the Billboard 200 — so the real test of whether this album can match its predecessor’s impact is still to come.

2. Bad Bunny stayed fairly active as a recording artist in between his two albums, releasing a number of one-off singles and collaborations — a few of which appear on Nadie Sabe, but most of which do not. Do you think those in-between releases helped excitement for the new album, hurt it, or had no major impact on it?

Leila Cobo: Bad Bunny is a maverick when it comes to promoting (or not promoting) his albums. You truly don’t know what he’s going to do, or as he says, “Hago lo que me da la gana”. I think his fans revel in the uncertainty: Will he release an album? Will he not? Is he taking a break? Is he going on tour? Which is a long way to say that I don’t think anything he did or didn’t do affected the performance of this album. Bad Bunny is at a stage in his career where he can do no wrong, where people are eager to hear his music and where he now has broad, universal recognition — not just for his music, but as a cultural phenomenon.

Kyle Denis: I’d say that some of those in-between releases hurt the excitement for the upcoming record. Neither “Where She Goes” nor “Un Preview” did much damage on the charts outside of their respective release weeks, and his crossover collaborations with Travis Scott (“K-Pop”) and Drake (“Gently”) weren’t received particularly well either. In fact, outside of “Coco Chanel” (with Eladio Carrión), Benito’s biggest song of the year is his “Un x100to” team-up with Grupo Frontera, which is rooted in a regional Mexican style that Nadie Sabe mostly avoids. Perhaps more importantly, his romance with Kendall Jenner put a damper on his likability for a significant chunk of his core fans, which could very well have impacted how many of them tuned into the album upon release.

Isabela Raygoza: It’s challenging to determine the exact impact of Bad Bunny’s in-between releases on Nadie Sabe. Each artist has their unique strategy, and what worked for him in the past, like surprise album drops, may not necessarily yield the same results every time. While he did provide fans with a brief heads-up this time (even if it’s 4 days in advance), it’s a departure from the approach of artists who announce their album releases months in advance. So, it’s possible that the in-between releases had some impact on the album’s reception, but it’s difficult to quantify precisely how it affected the excitement for the new album.

Jessica Roiz: No Bad Bunny song can ever be hurtful, IMO. But I do feel that tracks such as “Where She Goes” and “Un Preview,” though they are two of my personal favorite ones in the new album, did not have the impact they should have — at least not on TikTok, where so many of his songs created a buzz in the past. With the former release, fans were uncertain if it hinted at a new album or not; whereas the latter release, because of its title, built real excitement and curiosity that more music was on the way.

Andrew Unterberger: I do wonder if the steady stream of music in between the two albums had a bit of a dampening effect on Nadie Sabe‘s debut — especially since the biggest hit of the bunch, “Un x100to,” was the least likely to be included on this album or even really feel like it’s part of the same era. I wouldn’t mind seeing what Bad Bunny could do on his next album if he released it without any advance tracks and after a (brief) time outside of the spotlight.

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3. All 22 of the album’s tracks debut on the Hot 100 this week, led by the No. 5-entering “Monaco.” Do you think it will end up the biggest hit from the album, or is its highest debut mostly due to its top New Music Friday playlist placement and early appearance in the album’s tracklist?

Leila Cobo: I personally love “Monaco.” I love its moodiness and its Charles Aznavour references (who knew??) But I don’t think it will be the biggest hit on the album. I think that will go to one of the more rhythmic tracks that are still finding their way into listeners’ ears, much as what happened with “Tití Me Preguntó” and Un Verano. However, unlike with “Titi,” I’m not clear on what that peak single would be –although I’m a fan of “Hibiki”; I like the dance beats and I think Benito is particularly good on these more melodic, uptempo tracks.

Kyle Denis: The “Dime (Ey; dime), dime, ¿esto es lo que tú quería’?” lyric is already catching on over at TikTok, so I can definitely see “Monaco” growing into a steady hit, and perhaps the album’s biggest single. I would also keep an eye on “Fina” (with Young Miko) and “Perro Negro” (with Feid).

Isabela Raygoza: We were quick to recognize the potential of “Monaco” by ranking it as the album’s second-best track, just below “Acho PR.” “Monaco” stands out due to its lineup of featured artists (De La Ghetto, Arcángel, and Ñengo Flow) and a captivating sample that gives it a timeless quality. We’ve seen that songs with more featured guests tend to generate more streams, but even as a solo Bunny track, “Monaco” boasts a menacing violin riff that immediately grabs the listener’s attention, and his conviction in the track is powerful.

However, it’s also possible that “Acho PR” might gain more popularity over time. In fact, I’m placing my bet on that possibility. The dynamics of music popularity can change, and while “Monaco” had an impressive debut, it’s challenging to predict which track will ultimately become the biggest hit from the album. Both songs have their unique strengths, and it will be interesting to see how their popularity unfolds in the coming weeks and months.

Jessica Roiz: Given that it’s the song he used to announce his new album and it’s the actual focus track of the set, I can see why “Monaco” charted high on the Hot 100 and is No. 1 on Hot Latin Songs. I’ve also seen a lot of people use the sound on social media, mainly drawn by its avant-garde trap fusion backed by the elegant violin and piano melodies heardon French-Armenian singer Charles Aznavour’s 1964 song “Hier Encore.” Now will it remain the biggest hit from the album? Only time will tell. But I do see two fan-favorites already boiling up on social media with the potential of becoming even bigger bangers: “Perro Negro” with Feid and “Fina” with Young Miko.

Andrew Unterberger: I wasn’t sure on it the first time I heard it, but I was sold on “Monaco” from Bad Bunny’s impressively staged and delivered performance of it on SNL last weekend. I dunno for sure if it’ll end up the album’s biggest, but it does sound like a real hit to me.

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4. Does Bad Bunny try anything on Nadie Sabe that you find particularly new and/or exciting? What song would you like to hear take off from it in the weeks to come?

Leila Cobo: I think Benito is becoming more and more atmospheric the more his career develops. Case in point is the aforementioned “Monaco,” which really goes out on a limb. It’s a bravado track through and through, but it’s set to an almost romantic beat; it throws you off, those lyrics against that musical backdrop. The tone was set with “Where She Goes,” which also has multiple mood layers.

Kyle Denis: I’m really enjoying Benito’s foray into drill alongside Eladio Carrión on “Thunder y Lightning.” It’s a nice reprieve from the Latin trap that dominates Nadie Sabe, and it would be cool to see drill get some real chart success in Spanish after dominating the Top 40 space with “Barbie World” this summer.

Isabela Raygoza: Bad Bunny’s exploration of new and exciting territory on Nadie extends beyond the album itself. This year, he showcased his versatility by delving into Mexican cumbia alongside Grupo Frontera and releasing “Where She Goes,” a single from the album that incorporates Jersey Club elements. Notably, the music video for the song features a cameo by Lil Uzi Vert, symbolizing a seal of approval from the Jersey Club purveyor. There’s also the Dominican dembow of “Cybertruck.” While the album may not represent a radical departure from his previous work, Bad Bunny’s return to trap is a full-circle moment for the artist who gained fame in 2016 for globalizing Latin trap. If there’s a song I’d like to hear take off it’s the intro track “Nadie Sabe,” a personal statement of Bad Bunny in 2023 that brims with conviction and authenticity. 

Jessica Roiz: More than his ever-innovative trap beats (for example in “Monaco” and “Vou787”), what excites me most about Nadie Sabe is its lyrical content. Unlike Un Verano, which was about being in love and summers in Puerto Rico, Nadie Sabe is about the downfalls, the wins, the life lessons. The heartfelt opening partial title track, “Nadie Sabe” — all about the good and bad of being as famous as he is — is testament to that, and “Los Pits” is all about conquering the world and being the best in the game. As for songs I would like to hear take off from the set … without a doubt, “Acho PR.” The track is an honest ode to his Puerto Rican culture and those who believed in him, featuring three artists that paved the way for the new generations: Ñengo Flow, De La Ghetto, and Arcangel.

Andrew Unterberger: Give me the dark, Drive-ready electro-pop of “Baticano.” And while we’re at it, give me a remake of Drive starring Benito in Ryan Gosling’s role as The Driver.

5. Last year, Billboard‘s staff named Bad Bunny the greatest pop star of 2022. We’re not done yet with 2023, of course — but based on his year so far, when we do our 2023 rankings, around where do you think he should fall: still No. 1, in the top 5, in the top 10, or not on the list at all?

Leila Cobo: I think he should definitely make the top five. I don’t think he’ll be No. 1 simply because this is a late-year release, and also because he hasn’t toured in 2023. But Benito has definitely become a staple of pop music and culture.

Kyle Denis: Off his consistent streaming numbers, the deafening buzz for his upcoming tour, and Nadie’s handsome debut, I’d say he’s got a spot in the top 10 secured.

Isabela Raygoza: I’d place him in the top five for 2023. The last few years have undoubtedly been dominated by Bad Bunny, and his consistent success on various mainstream charts is a testament to his influence. The fact that Nadie Sabe is the fourth all-Spanish album to top the Billboard 200 further underscores his achievement. However, it’s important to note that the rise of música mexicana on a global scale, and Peso Pluma’s Hot 100 dominance could present a challenge.

Jessica Roiz: Bad Bunny has achieved historic records that no other artist has in Latin music, and even if he’s on tour or not, releasing music or not, he will always be a force to be reckoned with. But if I were to choose, I think Karol G should be at No. 1 in this year’s ranking, with Bad Bunny in the top five. 

Andrew Unterberger: Top 10 for sure, and maybe an argument for top five if he ends the year strong — but tough for him to immediately repeat the dream season he had in 2022.

While Doja Cat‘s blockbuster 2021 LP Planet Her never topped the Billboard 200 albums chart, there were understandable reasons why — it was blocked at No. 1 in its first week by another A-lister’s acclaimed new set in Tyler, the Creator’s Call Me If You Get Lost, and its massive success from there was more of an extended slow burn than a one-week supernova. Now, however, her new set Scarlet has also debuted short of the top spot, and the reasons why are less immediately obvious.

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Despite coming off the momentum of Planet Her‘s year-long top 40 dominance, and despite boasting a Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hit of its own — something her last set never even managed — in lead single “Paint the Town Red,” Scarlet debuts at No. 4, with an underwhelming 72,000 first-week units. And it’s not blocked by a spate of big-name new releases, either: The three albums above it are all prior No. 1s on the chart, and none that post units in the six digits this week.

Why does Doja Cat’s album success not seem to match her success in other key pop areas? And will the album still be able to grow from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. After Planet Her debuted at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 with 109,000 first-week units, Scarlet bows at No. 4 with 72,000. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you by the album’s first-week performance? 

Stephen Daw: I’m at a 7. While I understand why some fans might have been turned off to new music from an artist who was openly dissing them, I’m still a little shocked that Scarlet didn’t chart better. The hype leading into the album was amply stoked, with a series of well-selected singles and a blockbuster performance at the VMAs — while a No. 4 debut is certainly not bad, it’s much lower than I’d anticipated.

Kyle Denis: Probably around a 4. This is pretty much what I expected given the shaky rollout and her contentious relationship with her fans. Planet Her had two pre-release songs that legitimately connected with audiences – and one of them ended up being one of the biggest all-female collaborations in Billboard chart history. Comparatively, only “Paint the Town Red” landed with audiences of the advance Scarlet cuts, and that came after weeks of controversy regarding how Doja spoke about her fans and her previous two albums. The numbers for this album were never going to truly hold a candle to Planet Her’s — at least in terms of their respective first weeks.

Rylee Johnston: I’d rate my surprise level at a 7 – while Doja Cat continues to dominate the rap music sphere, I think her controversial statements (especially about her own fans) works against her. She’s undeniably talented and uses social media to her advantage when it comes to marketing her singles and upcoming projects, but that’s also where things come back to bite her. This time headlines about her as a person seemed to dominate the news, which ultimately could have overshadowed the release of her new album.

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Doja Cat is clearly an A-list artist, she’s collected plenty of new hits and listeners since her last album, and Scarlet was preceded by a legitimate smash in “Paint the Town Red”; the fact that this album debuted lower than Planet Her, and with a smaller equivalent album units total, is a bit mystifying. Yet I don’t think this debut is disappointing, exactly, considering just how well “Paint the Town Red” is performing — misfires simply do not include hits as big as this one. So while a No. 4 bow is somewhat startling, I’d still be pretty thrilled with this era so far if I were Doja.

Andrew Unterberger: Like a 7.5 maybe? I definitely thought it was possible it would fall a little short of No. 1, but a first-week number in the low 70s — not even high enough to beat out Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time in what feels like its 327th week on the 200 — is pretty stark. I get some of the reasons why it might be the case, but none of them feel totally satisfying to me yet.

2. While Scarlet comes short of the top spot on the Billboard 200, “Paint the Town Red” returns for a second week at No. 1 on the Hot 100. Why do you think Doja has found more success with the lead single of this era of hers than with its parent album? 

Stephen Daw: Simply, you can’t keep a good song down! “Paint the Town Red” is a perfect bridge between the pop-leaning sensibilities of Planet Her and the darker, hip-hop focused stylings of Scarlet, allowing Doja to flex her skills as a singer, a rapper and a provocateur. For all the big swings she takes on her album, “Paint the Town Red” is a surefire win-win for old and new fans alike. 

Kyle Denis: With an evolved fashion sense that featured a shaved head accompanied by horrorcore and punk aesthetics, the Doja of Scarlet is very far removed from the way she presented herself during the Planet Her era. Given that Doja went out of her way to lambast her previous two records – the most successful ones in her catalog – as “cash grabs,” it makes sense that audiences would gravitate to the Scarlet song that most closely recalls the Doja they fell in love with in 2020. “Paint the Town Red” isn’t a carbon copy of any of the songs on Amala or Hot Pink, but it’s certainly closer to that sound than Scarlet cuts like “Demons” or “WYM Freestyle.”

Rylee Johnston: She knows how to market her work on social media, and you can see the positive effects, especially with “Paint the Town Red.” Her skill and proficiency on TikTok ultimately helped skyrocket the single to a top performing position — but it’s a lot harder to do the same with an entire album.

Jason Lipshutz: Within the compelling hip-hop potpourri of Scarlet, “Paint the Town Red” stands out as the most immediate pop-crossover entry point. I don’t believe that the rap slant of Scarlet is less accessible than the pop overtures of Planet Her (which still had a ton of rap DNA in there, to be honest), but it’s also not shocking that “Paint the Town Red” has stood out from the pack, and made define the entire Scarlet era. Doja Cat has turned into one of top 40’s most consistent hit-makers, and as she continues patiently establishing her reputation as an albums artist, she’s still scoring smashes in the meantime.

Andrew Unterberger: I think we’re seeing more and more that hit singles in the TikTok era do not necessarily correlate to hit albums — it helps, sure, but the things that make one song go viral and the things that inspire a fanbase to stream an album millions and millions of times over don’t really seem to be the same. (For the record, this used to be a much more common phenomenon — artists like Pitbull and Flo Rida who scored pop smashes regularly without ever seriously threatening the top of the 200 — but they feel rarer in a streaming-dominated landscape, where the biggest albums artists and the biggest pop stars are generally one and the same.)

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3. While the album has not really been streamed in bulk — only one song from it debuts on the Hot 100 this week — that one song, new focus track “Agora Hills,” is off to a pretty good start on the chart, debuting at No. 18. Do you think the song will have legs as another long-lasting hit of Doja’s? 

Stephen Daw: I think so, but with a few caveats. “Agora Hills” is an immediate standout from Scarlet, and fans unanimously chose it as one of their favorites of the collection. But with the music video already out, and a bonafide streaming and radio hit already guaranteed in “Paint the Town Red,” I’m not quite sure if “Agora” will ascend that much further into the chart’s upper echelons. But I think it’s definitely in for a good, long stay in the 10’s and 20’s. 

Kyle Denis: I hope so! “Agora Hills” is easily one of the strongest songs on Scarlet, and it’s definitely well on its way to replicating – or even expanding on – the success of “Need to Know,” a similarly sultry R&B-rap hybrid from Planet Her. The song has tons of meme potential, is ridiculously catchy, and has genuine multi-format appeal. Whether or not it can reach higher than No. 18 depends on timing more than anything else.

Rylee Johnston: It has the potential to, but she would need to continue keeping everyone talking about her album. Especially with more artists releasing new music, the less people are listening to her album and talking about the focus track, then the easier it is for the song to continue descending on the chart. Her album is still fresh on people’s minds and she needs to use that to her advantage.

Jason Lipshutz: Any track from Scarlet that has longevity as a single will have to wait a few weeks (or more likely, months) for “Paint the Town Red” to slow down a bit, but Doja Cat has demonstrated an ability to effortlessly spin multiple hits off of a project dating back to her Hot Pink days. The vibe of “Agora Hills” is radically different than that of “Paint the Town Red” — one is a sensual rumination on private romance, the other is a galactic chest-thump — and I think that will work in its favor as radio programmers move on from her current smash, onto something a bit softer from a proven brand. I foresee a slow-growing top 10 hit here.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if it’ll threaten the top spot, but it certainly feels on pace to mirror some of the long-tail hits from the Planet Her era. It might not be the radio catnip that “Woman” or “Need to Know” proved to be, but it’s such a vibe that it seems likely to be regular fodder for playlists and TikTok videos for months to come still. And just generally speaking, when a Doja Cat song debuts well, that means it’s going to be around for a long time.

4. Planet Her had a very good first week, but was far more impressive in terms of its endurance, continuing to spawn new hit singles nearly a year into its release. Do you think Scarlet will ultimately follow a similar trajectory? 

Stephen Daw: I don’t think so, and I think that’s perfectly fine. The ethos behind Scarlet, from what I can tell, was for Doja to re-establish herself as a hip-hop superstar while also dabbling in some darker, horror-fueled imagery. She did that with ease, and the album stands out as a singular artistic statement in her discography. Barring some high-profile features on A-list remixes, I don’t see Scarlet becoming the enduring smash that Planet Her was — but it doesn’t really need to be that, either. 

Kyle Denis: I think Scarlet has the potential to follow a similar trajectory. There’s definitely a scenario where songs like “Gun,” “Agora Hills,” “Go Off,” and “Can’t Wait” build Scarlet into a years-long behemoth. Nonetheless, because the album campaign has been so rocky — and there aren’t any songs as immediately accessible as those that have already been named radio singles or focus tracks — I think it’s more likely that the Scarlet era ends up being a bit briefer than the Planet Her era. 

Rylee Johnston: It very well could especially if Doja Cat uses the horror element to her advantage. Listeners seem to have positive reactions to her new album and if she enters October, which is also spooky season, with the same amount of drive that she had while promoting her singles, then it could definitely hit more singles. Whether it’s bringing back the demon memes she made while promoting that single, she should really lean into the scary, horror vibes while everyone’s thinking about it.

Jason Lipshutz: Yeah, I think that this might just be Doja Cat’s singular lane, as a cerebral pop star whose songs take a few minutes for the rest of the world to catch up to them. A good example is “Vegas” from the Elvis soundtrack last year, which started slow but gained momentum before eventually reaching the top 10 and radio ubiquity; a similar fate may await Scarlet, which strikes a lot of bold poses, chart performance be damned. “Paint the Town Red” is already enormous, and I think there will be two or three more hits from the project (let’s hope “F–k the Girls (FTG)” is one of them!)

Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it, but it absolutely could happen. Each of Doja’s last two albums spawned multiple smashes well after their initial release — due to a combination of her being a promotional savant and her having a surfeit of great songs whose charms take a while to fully reveal themselves. If eight months from now we looked foolish for this discussion prematurely framing Scarlet as a commercial disappointment, I couldn’t say I’d be shocked.

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5. Doja Cat has been one of the decade’s biggest and best-performing commercial artists — our staff named her one of the top 10 pop stars of each of the last two calendar years, and she’ll have a pretty good case for a third straight spot this year. But unlike most of the other artists at her level, she has yet to score a No. 1 album, and she seems to be moving in the wrong direction. How much do you think that matters in gauging her pop star resumé? 

Stephen Daw: Not much at all. You can’t seriously look at artists like Dua Lipa, Lizzo and Megan Thee Stallion and say that they haven’t achieved superstar status because their albums haven’t hit No. 1, so you shouldn’t do so with Doja either. 

Kyle Denis: I don’t think it matters much that Doja has yet to score a No. 1 album. Rihanna didn’t reach the summit of the Billboard 200 until her seventh try, and by that point, no one was genuinely doubting her place at the top of the pop ecosystem. I think what’s most important for Doja’s — and what she’s already proving – is consistency. Doja’s true mainstream breakthrough arrived in 2020 during the pandemic, and a number of artists who also broke through during that time have struggled to maintain that momentum. With a third consecutive top 10 album, her first unaccompanied No. 1 single (also her first to spend multiple weeks at the top), and a headlining arena tour kicking off at the end of the month – Doja is in a really good place right now. By the year’s end she’ll have filled in a couple blanks on her pop star resumé that are probably more important than a No. 1 album right now.

I don’t doubt her ability to reach No. 1 – it’s likely that Planet Her would’ve gotten there in a slightly less crowded week – but the lack of a chart-topping album isn’t make or break for her right now. For an artist as chameleonic as she is, it’s far more important and impressive that she continues to carry swaths of fans through each iteration of her artistry – no matter how different each one may be from the last.

Rylee Johnston: Doja Cat continues to be talked about — and since she has such a strong presence on social media, I don’t think it matters. Most artists have had at least one album that’s not as successful as the rest and I don’t think it discounts the success she has received, so far. What could come to hurt her in the future, is the rift between her and her fans. If that continues, then the downward descend will most likely continue.

Jason Lipshutz: My take is that this specific achievement doesn’t hinder Doja Cat as a modern pop star, but that if and when she does score a No. 1 album, it will represent a new level of her stardom. Although Doja has plenty of hit singles and a one-of-a-kind persona — a combination that is driving arena ticket sales as we speak — once she becomes the type of artist that put out an album and automatically earn blockbuster numbers, she’ll be even more unstoppable as a cultural force. It’s been a whirlwind few years for Doja, and there’s nothing lacking in her arsenal right now — but often, checking every single box of superstardom takes time, and this specific one might have to wait a few more years.

Andrew Unterberger: Depends what you’re trying to gauge, I guess. If you’re comparing her to the Taylor Swift/Drake/Adele commercial level of star — maybe you could throw Bad Bunny, Morgan Wallen and SZA in there too at this point — then yeah, it for sure matters that Doja can’t do first-week numbers the way they do. But if you’re just talking about pop stars whose songs and personas best capture and define and era, it’s pretty hard to leave her out of that discussion. It’d be tough to name three artists of any kind who feel more like the 2020s so far than Doja Cat.

It was clear right away in December 2022 that SZA‘s sophomore album SOS represented a commercial leveling-up for the R&B superstar, with the set moving over 300,000 units in its first frame and spending 10 total weeks atop the Billboard 200 albums chart. But perhaps even more telling has been how she’s continued to dominate in the nine months since — a run capped this week by her scoring two simultaneous top five hits on the Billboard Hot 100.
“Snooze,” her slow-growing second smash from SOS, hits a new peak of No. 3 this week on the Hot 100, thanks in large part to a boost from a new acoustic version of the song featuring pop icon Justin Bieber. And “Slime You Out,” her long-awaited collab with hip-hop behemoth Drake, debuts atop the chart, despite some negative fan responses in its first week.

What’s the biggest reason she’s been able to maintain such success this long after SOS‘ release? And where does she rank currently among the globe’s biggest pop stars? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Drake scores his 12th No. 1 and on the Hot 100 and SZA scores her second this week thanks to their new collab “Slime You Out.” Does the song’s initial success mean more to (or about) either artist right now?

Hannah Dailey: I think this feat is definitely more of a triumph for SZA. It’s a testament to how quickly and magnificently her career is exploding, especially given how she only scored her first ever No. 1 with “Kill Bill” just a few months ago. That first Hot 100-topper proved how fast she’s on the rise, while this second one just goes to show that she isn’t leaving the top of the heap anytime soon.

Kyle Denis: For Drake, the success of “Slime You Out” is a simple reminder that he’s still in a space where he can sneeze and get a top five hit. For SZA, this is just further proof that she’s in an imperial phase right now. Between the ubiquity of the SOS singles, successful featured turns on tracks from Travis Scott and Lizzo (and now Drake), and a smash world tour — she’s got the Midas touch.

Jason Lipshutz: For anyone doubting Drake’s chart dominance this long into his career — and after a little over a calendar year since his last chart-topper — “Slime You Out” debuting at No. 1 on the Hot 100 should quell any anxieties about his staying power. While “Slime You Out” features an assist from SZA for an added dose of blockbuster appeal, the song is also a moody, downbeat sneer towards an ex — but no matter, it’s still the biggest song in the country. More than a decade into his run, Drake still possesses the power to turn any type of song into a smash.

Heran Mamo: I think it means more about Drake and means more to SZA. Having one of the first singles from For All the Dogs debut at No. 1 shortly before the album comes out is a good indicator that he’s creating enough buzz in time for its release. And for Drake, this is sort of like checking off something from a to-do list, because he’s had at least one song from his last few solo projects go No. 1: “Jimmy Cooks” (2022’s Honestly, Nevermind); “Way 2 Sexy” (2021’s Certified Lover Boy); “Toosie Slide” (2020’s Dark Lane Demo Tapes); and “God’s Plan,” “Nice for What” and “In My Feelings” (2018’s Scorpion). “Slime You Out” shows The Boy that he’s still hitting the mark every time. And he might be hitting an even bigger one soon: Drake needs only one more No. 1 to tie Michael Jackson as the male solo artist with the most No. 1s in Hot 100 history.  

Andrew Unterberger: Drake certainly had more to lose if this song didn’t go to No. 1; after both his solo “Search & Rescue” and his 21 Savage team-up “Rich Flex” debuted at No. 2, to not secure the top spot with his much-hyped SZA teamup would’ve surely made him look at least slightly vulnerable commercially for the first time in a long time. But I think it says more about SZA that her added juice was needed to get this song over the hump; it wasn’t all that long ago that Drake having a SZA feature would’ve seemed more like a career favor for the latter artist.

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2. The song’s debut comes while the majority of the public response surrounding the song has seemingly been fairly negative. Was a No. 1 debut just inevitable for the first team-up between two artists at this commercial level — or has the criticism of the song just been a silent majority drowning out the majority of listeners who have actually embraced the song?  

Hannah Dailey: I think this phenomenon is majorly due to that one yikes-inducing Drake lyric – “Whipped and chained you like American slaves” – which has opened the song up to a lot of controversy online. And with any controversial song, for better or worse, people are going to tune in.

Kyle Denis: I think a No. 1 debut was definitely inevitable at some level. As for the song’s reception? Given that it hasn’t completely collapsed on streaming a week after its debut, I’d say that there definitely seems to be more than enough listeners who like the song just fine. To that point, it’s been some years since Drake put out a (close to) universally acclaimed project yet he’s still consistently one of the most-consumed artists in the world. Middling public reception hasn’t seriously negatively impacted the commercial performance of a Drake song in years, and it wasn’t going to happen now – especially with one of the year’s biggest stars as a guest on the track.

Jason Lipshutz: The No. 1 debut does feel like an inevitability. I’m sure “Slime You Out” has its fans, but it’s hard to believe that a five-minute track that’s cynical in approach and hook-less in structure is the most surefire choice for a single uniting two powerhouse artists. Sometimes, those details simply don’t matter if two artists are prominent enough and launch their collaboration at the perfect moment; or Drake and SZA, “Slime You Out” was too big to fail.

Heran Mamo: It was ultimately inevitable given their combined star power and romantic history: Drake rapped “‘Cause I used to date SZA back in ’08” on “Mr. Right Now” from Metro Boomin and 21 Savage’s 2020 joint album Savage Mode II, and that’s just one example of the two referencing each other and each other’s music in songs. Having two superstar exes on the same track for the first time ever was the perfect recipe for a No. 1. Even Halle Berry chiming in about how she didn’t approve of the single’s cover art — which is from her getting slimed at the 2012 Nickelodeon’s Kids’ Choice Awards — probably helped garner extra listeners.  

I also feel like the controversial nature of “Slime You Out” has helped others gravitate toward it: Fans are arguing that the song is neither Drake nor SZA’s best work and his “Whipped and chained you like American slaves” bar is distasteful, but SZA’s verse and Drizzy’s fourth verse, where he runs through a full-year cycle of what a woman goes through, remain highlights. Whether you love it or hate it, it’s all you can talk about, which is probably the only thing Drake cares about, and that’s why we’re here. 

Andrew Unterberger: Let’s see where the song is in a few weeks. I didn’t see “Search & Rescue” hanging around the Hot 100 as long as it did, which ultimately made for decent evidence that people liked the song more than its lukewarm initial reception suggested. If “Slime” Toosie Slides out of the top 40 by Halloween, though, then it’ll be a pretty good sign that it was indeed just the hype of its two A-list artists linking on record for the first time that allowed it to debut on top. (I suspect it will be.)

3. Meanwhile, SZA’s “Snooze” has also crept into the chart’s top five for the first time, reaching No. 3 in its 41st week on the listing. Outside of the Justin Bieber remix — which helps give it a final boost this week — what do you think the biggest reason is for the song’s slow-burning success? 

Hannah Dailey: Is it a cop out to say I honestly think it’s just a really good song? SOS is clearly still on rotation for a lot of people, and I suspect that “Snooze” simply grew organically on listeners who started to single it out while listening to the album on repeat.

Kyle Denis: “Snooze” was always a standout on SOS; I remember many people immediately latching onto that one even in the thick of the “Kill Bill” craze earlier this year. For a song to stick around for close to an entire calendar year and patiently wait for its moment in the limelight after five prior hit singles from the same parent album means that it’s genuinely connecting with audiences. I think the fact that this wasn’t a remix-revives-song-from-the-dead situation speaks to that point; “Snooze” had already spent a handful of weeks in the top 10 before the Justin Bieber remix, and the original solo version is still driving the majority of the song’s overall consumption.

Jason Lipshutz: “Snooze” has benefitted from the continued goodwill toward SOS, which, nine months after its release, now looks likely to become one of the most beloved full-lengths of the decade. The album remains in the top 10 of the Billboard 200 chart 41 weeks into its run, and after “Kill Bill” translated that listenership into streaming playlist placement and radio play, now it’s the follow-up’s turn to continue representing SOS on those platforms. I wouldn’t be surprised if “Snooze” is followed by another hit or two from SOS — that’s how resonant SZA’s second album has proven to be.

Heran Mamo: Being serviced to (and succeeding at) rhythmic, R&B/hip-hop and pop radio over the last few months has definitely played a huge role. Our senior R&B/hip-hop charts and data analyst Trevor Anderson wrote it best: “Radio gains, in turn, push the single to new peaks on multiple multimetric charts.” With a major radio push coming from different angles, “Snooze” was able to steadily climb up the Hot 100, Hot R&B/Hip-Hop Songs and more charts. At that point, nobody can sleep on that song anymore.  

Andrew Unterberger: Timing really is everything with songs like this. Credit to SZA and her RCA team for pushing all the right buttons on “Snooze”: They promoted it to radio at the right time, released the music video at the right time, and now dropped this Bieber remix at the right time. The song is more of a gradual creeper than an immediate show-stopper, so they were wise to play the long game with it — and they’ve played it perfectly for over half a year now.

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4. Despite SZA’s SOS technically coming out in late 2022, it’s still proving weekly to be one of the most impactful releases on 2023, at a time when albums rarely cast shadows that long. What’s something she has done with the SOS promo cycle that you think has really allowed her album and its singles to have such a pronounced and elongated impact?  

Hannah Dailey: I think her consistency with hopping on songs with other artists in the months since SOS dropped has really helped keep her name at the forefront of consciousness in both pop culture and pop music. She’s always been an avid collaborator, but now it’s effectively doubling as unofficial promo for SOS.

Kyle Denis: I think elongating the pre-release cycle really helped lay the foundation for the longevity of SOS. It took two years just to get from the release of the record’s oldest song — “Good Days” — to the full album, so there’s a level of investment in the world of SOS that towers over records with more truncated cycles. With each new music video teasing the next single, SZA was able to keep fans engaged while also prepping audiences’ ears and anticipation for those tracks. That strategy routinely resulted in lofty debuts and substantial longevity once singles like “Shirt” and its accompanying music videos finally arrived.

With LANA — a deluxe version – on the way, the SOS cycle could extend well into next summer. I think the most important element of this promo cycle, however, is SZA’s ability to make sure her pop culture presence is ubiquitous but not overbearing.

Jason Lipshutz: In hindsight, SZA’s tour in support of SOS — which kicked off in the U.S. in February, traveled to Europe in the spring and is now back in North America through October — continued the momentum from the December album release to get SZA in arenas within a matter of weeks and demonstrate why these new songs deserved to reach her largest audiences yet. “Kill Bill” was already a hit by the time the SOS Tour kicked off, but taking the album on the road relatively soon after its release, and reaching so many markets across 2023, has no doubt helped the album sustain that success.

Heran Mamo: I think supply and demand is a huge factor here. The demand for new music from SZA had reached a boiling point by the time she actually dropped SOS, and we know she isn’t the type of artist to be dropping again soon. So if this is what’s going to be satisfying fans for the next few years, she’s going to stretch the album out for as long as possible. In the nine-month period following SOS’ release, she’s released three of the songs as singles, with accompanying music videos, and gone on tour – allowing the fans to connect with the music in a more intimate way. The way she gave us her all while making this album is the way she’s giving us her all while promoting it.  

Andrew Unterberger: It’s hard to think of too many artists in the past half-decade that have allowed their singles room to breathe as effectively as SZA has. Each of the major hits that have come from SOS — whether before or after the album’s release — has been given the solo spotlight for months, without SZA crowding it by rushing out the next radio single or music video or remix. She allows singles to exist as their own mini-eras, and fans are happy to live in them as long as she lets them. (It also helps, of course, that the songs are each strong enough to support such lengthy runs.)

5. Is SZA one of the 10 biggest pop stars in the world right now?

Hannah Dailey: I would say so, barring how inventive and genre-bending her music itself is. On top of the recent chart accomplishments we already discussed, she’s one of the most-streamed artists on Spotify right now in spite of there being nine months separating her from the release of SOS, and she’s a name that other top 10 pop stars want to collaborate with (Drake, Justin Bieber, Doja Cat).

Kyle Denis: Easily. If we’re talking 10 biggest pop stars who are currently touring and actively promoting an album cycle? She’s top five.

Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. Other artists have deeper catalogs and more secure statuses as solo hitmakers, but there aren’t many artists right now with a discography as impeccable, or a mass approval rating as high. Hopefully SZA won’t take another six years to release a new album, but whenever she does, that will immediately become the most anticipated album of that year.

Heran Mamo: Yes. Her recent success with SOS has been unavoidable, even if you weren’t a fan of hers before or you’re not the biggest R&B fan. And we’ve seen R&B stars like Usher, The Weeknd and Beyoncé crossover to become pop stars. I think SZA is following that trajectory, and SOS marked the beginning of her crossover moment. 

Andrew Unterberger: Unquestionably. The real question is if there are any current superstars — outside of her “Slime” partner and pop’s official QB1 — who can be definitively ranked above her at this point.

The sophomore slump has officially been avoided for Olivia Rodrigo. This week, her second album Guts debuts atop the Billboard 200, while also charting all 12 of its tracks in the top 40 of the Billboard Hot 100 — including a return to the No. 1 spot for a second week for its lead single, “Vampire.”

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As for questions of how Guts‘ first week would compare to that of her smash debut album Sour, the answer is: a little bit better. Guts debuts with 302,000 units to the 295,000 of Sour, while also charting one more Hot 100 entry — though that’s mostly because the album contains 12 tracks to Sour‘s 11.

Is this the kind of performance we expected from Rodrigo’s Sour follow-up? And where might her career be headed from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 302,000 units moved — a smidge higher than the 295,000 posted by her debut album Sour in its first week. On a scale from 1-10, if you’re Olivia Rodrigo, how happy are you with that number?

Katie Atkinson: A 10. Sour was such a blockbuster introduction, so to not only meet, but surpass that initial splash has to be a huge relief. Now Olivia is not just riding the momentum or the good will of the beloved songs from her debut album; she’s released a collection of newly beloved songs whose full potential remains to be seen.

Kyle Denis: A strong 8.5. Not only did Olivia surpass Sour’s first-week numbers, she also did it while leaning further into a sound that did not dominate her debut album. It was always going to be impossible to flawlessly recreate the exact conditions of a storm as perfect as Sour, but she pulled better numbers without having to do that.

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Maybe Olivia Rodrigo and her team were hoping for an even larger debut number for one of the most anticipated pop albums of the year, but the reality is that Sour included bigger pre-release hits than Guts, with “Drivers License” and “good 4 u” — and Rodrigo’s sophomore album still scored a larger sales number. That feat speaks to the general excitement around Rodrigo, crystallized by the way that Guts dominated the pop culture discourse upon its release; she’s a superstar, and this 300k+ debut is another solid level up.

Danielle Pascual: A 9. What Olivia achieved with Sour was unheard of. Not only did it debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200, it was also the biggest album of 2021 and remains the longest-running debut album on the chart this century. The fact that she didn’t have an eight-week Hot 100 chart-topping lead single (“Drivers License”) this time around, but still outpaced Sour‘s first-week, is a true testament to her popstar prowess.

Andrew Unterberger: An 8. To match and even slightly exceed Sour is no small feat, given how hard it has proven (especially in recent years) for pop stars with more-or-less fully formed debut albums to maintain that performance for LP2. But given the anticipation for Guts and just how much emphasis Rodrigo puts on her album releases — to the point where she was essentially gone from popular music for most of the two years in between the two sets — I also wouldn’t be surprised if Team Rodrigo was at least somewhat hoping to land a first-week number more in line with the very biggest releases of the year.

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2. After hanging around the top 10 for most of the 10 weeks it had been on the chart, “Vampire” rebounds to No. 1 this week, while “Bad Idea Right?” zooms back from No. 26 to a new peak of No. 7 in its fifth week. Have those first two Guts songs have mostly underperformed, overperformed, or about matched your commercial expectations so far?

Katie Atkinson: I would say matched. The album’s lead single being a chart-topper makes a lot of sense, given all the curiosity around what her sophomore album would sound like. And “bad idea right?” still has room to grow, especially at pop radio, so I could see it surpassing its new No. 7 peak. If you look at the Sour twofer of eight-week No. 1 “drivers license” followed by the No. 3-peaking “Déjà Vu,” it’s a similar trajectory. And then there was “good 4 u”…

Kyle Denis: I think they’ve both just about matched my commercial expectations so far. “Vampire” has performed quite consistently – especially considering its pseudo-rock opera sound is pretty far removed from the country, Afrobeats and hip-hop that have been mainstays in the Hot 100’s upper regions this year. “Bad Idea Right” reaching a new peak is also impressive, for me, because the Guts singles had a more truncated pre-album release period than the Sour singles did. Sure, neither song really recaptured the heights of “Drivers License” and “Good 4 U,” but Olivia could’ve very well ended up flat on her face if she focused on recreating those successes to a tee.  

Jason Lipshutz: Overperformed! “Vampire” is a singular pop-radio experience these days — sprawling and theatrical in approach compared to the clipped, ultra-catchy songs in power rotation around it — while “Bad Idea Right?” slides into the “good 4 u” lane but rocks harder and shrugs off pop appeal more vociferously. The fact that both singles have logged multiple frames in the top 10, and that one of them has spent a pair of weeks at No. 1, while being notably out of step with modern pop trends illustrates Rodrigo’s current power as an A-list artist, capable of bending popular music towards her interests.

Danielle Pascual: Overperformed. From the moment Olivia announced Guts, I knew it’d be nearly impossible to match the success of “Drivers’ License” for her sophomore album’s lead single. When you go on a two-year break between your debut and sophomore albums, you risk the chance of fans falling off, forgetting about you or moving on to the next big thing. However, the fact that “Vampire” returned to No. 1 upon Guts’ big Billboard 200 debut shows that her dedicated army of Livies aren’t going anywhere. Also, not many artists can say they rose nearly 20 spots in a single week — and as “Bad Idea Right?” continues to gain traction on TikTok, I don’t think it’s reached its peak just yet.  

Andrew Unterberger: Matched. Both songs came in a little softer than their accompanying Sour-era singles, but both were also slightly tougher sells commercially — the fact that “Vampire” has still racked up two weeks at No. 1 and “Idea” has now reached a No. 7 peak is pretty impressive, considering.

3. “Get Him Back!” is the highest-debuting of the set’s new tracks, bowing at No. 11 — assisted by top Spotify New Music Friday placement, an eye-catching music video and a big look at the MTV Video Music Awards this Tuesday. Does it seem to you like it will be a lasting hit off the album? If not, is there another song on the album you think could be ticketed for (or worthy of) such success?

Katie Atkinson: I 100% peg this as the “good 4 u” of Guts – and I’m betting that No. 11 is just the beginning. First of all, can we talk about the title turn-of-phrase? It’s one of those cute little wordplay moments that you hear in a song and can’t believe it isn’t already a cliché. Flipping “get him back” to mean reunite AND exact revenge is so brilliantly bratty. For me, this is the lasting hit.

Kyle Denis: Yes. I think, right now, all signs point to “Get Him Back!” becoming not just a lasting hit, but potentially the biggest hit of the entire Guts era. That chorus is undeniable, and the bratty spoken verses are simply irresistible. Outside of “Get Him Back,” I think “Making the Bed” and “The Grudge” could do a little something. It’ll be interesting to see whether the rest of this album’s singles bank on the ballads or the more overt pop-rock bangers. 

Jason Lipshutz: It depends on the concurrent runs of the Rodrigo songs around it: If “Vampire” and “Bad Idea Right?” continue rolling in the top 10 of the Hot 100, and commanding the attention of radio blocks and streaming playlists, then “Get Him Back!” — which already received a splashy music video and big awards look — will be crowded out of the spotlight. I hope that’s not the case, however, because “Get Him Back!” is the best song on Guts, and would be a truly exciting mainstream hit. Let’s hope there’s enough room in our cultural appetite for its dazzling wordplay and exploding-heart breakdown.

Danielle Pascual: I will definitely be surprised if “Get Him Back!” doesn’t hit the Hot 100 top 10 next week. With the similar Y2K pop-punk feel to it that “Bad Idea Right?” has, “Get Him Back!” is undoubtedly getting a bigger push — and not just by the label. A fan-made TikTok dance for the song is going viral, as is a trend of people recreating its iPhone-made music video. Chatter surrounding the song only seems to be growing, and I’d place my bets on it becoming the biggest hit on Guts.

Andrew Unterberger: It does definitely seem like the best pick for a Guts breakout hit, but I’m a little worried about its performance so far. Despite getting a top placement on Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist and both a flashy music video and an eye-catching VMAs introductory performance last Tuesday, the song still missed a top 10 debut this week, and its streaming numbers in the days since haven’t really been trending in the right direction. Maybe it just needs a little time to take off online, but that hasn’t been the case with Rodrigo so far — both “License” and “Good” had already caught like wildfire by the end of their debut weeks — and if the stellar video and VMAs performance couldn’t further stoke those flames, I’m not sure what will. Certainly rooting for it though.

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4. Guts leans even further into the alt-rock inclinations that Rodrigo had flashed on a few Sour songs — while she has given high-profile shoutouts to ’90s alternative acts like Rage Against the Machine in recent interviews, and even invited The Breeders to open some of her upcoming Guts World Tour arena dates. Do you think the success of Guts will lead to a greater prominence of guitar rock and/or ’90s influences in the mainstream, or does it mostly just work for Olivia Rodrigo because she’s Olivia Rodrigo?

Katie Atkinson: As much as I’d like this is all to lead to a riot-grrrrl-aissance, I think it just works particularly well for Olivia Rodrigo. She’s got the Empire Records fashion and the Alanis-nodding music video and, yes, even The Breeders on tour with her. It’s a little reminiscent of Bruno Mars cherry-picking the best of various genres and decades and finding a way to make the classics current. It’s savvy but it’s not the only reason fans are connecting to her music; it’s just part of the overall appeal.

Kyle Denis: I hope it does! You can never have too many different kinds of music making their presence known in the zeitgeist. I think Olivia obviously carries a level of fame that will give her a higher ceiling of commercial success, but I hesitate to say that the guitar rock is working for her just because she’s her. From Billie Eilish’s “Happier Than Ever” and Demi Lovato’s new Revamped album to Jelly Roll’s “Need a Favor” and Zach Bryan new self-titled album, I think we’re see a rise in guitar rock’s mainstream prominence across the board, which makes me think a larger renaissance could be on the horizon.

Jason Lipshutz: Probably a little bit of both, although I do think that we may be in for a upswing of louder guitars in pop music — thanks to Rodrigo, but also considering rock nods from pop superstars like Billie Eilish and Harry Styles, crossover country hits from Morgan Wallen and Luke Combs, and the fact that genre-splitting singer-songwriters like Noah Kahan and Zach Bryan are establishing themselves as radio presences. Rodrigo may be more well-versed in (often quite excellent) punk, alternative and hard rock, but the success of her sound can also be folded into a greater six-string trend that I’d bet hasn’t yet peaked.

Danielle Pascual: The trend has potential to go mainstream, and labels will undoubtedly try to replicate Olivia’s success with their emerging artists. However, I don’t think any push will generate near the same numbers she has pulled, especially only a couple years into her musical career. All-girl rock bands have been around forever, and most are lucky to see success on the charts these days. Even artists in her genre that have been in the game (like Avril Lavigne), haven’t seen near the same numbers Olivia has pulled with their new releases. For the current moment, Olivia is the reigning princess of pop-punk, and no one seems to be overthrowing her any time soon.  

Andrew Unterberger: I doubt we’ll get a bunch of soundalikes littering the Hot 100, but the more important thing is Rodrigo re-normalizing guitar rock within popular music — a trend that’s been ongoing for basically the entire decade so far, and which she certainly already helped along the way with “Good 4 U” and a couple other Sour album cuts. In the mid-to-late 2010s, it was becoming a rarity to hear six-strings anywhere on top 40 radio or on New Music Friday; now, they’re all over the place again. Doesn’t mean next year’s VMAs are gonna look like the 1995 awards, but if there were a handful of very disparate guitar-based performances featured throughout, it would hardly be shocking.

5. When Rodrigo broke out in 2021, the Taylor Swift comparisons were obvious and plentiful — not just because of the similarities they shared as prodigious young singer-songwriters, but because Rodrigo seemed to be one of the only new 2020s artists with the commercial ceiling to potentially one day match Swift in popularity. Do you think the early returns for Guts show Rodrigo still having that kind of momentum?

Katie Atkinson: The growth album-over-album can only mean positive things for Olivia and her future. And while I think the comparisons were apt when she first broke out, given the diaristic songwriting and starting as a teen, I feel like Guts shows that she isn’t following an exact Swiftian playbook. I don’t think even Taylor could have predicted how her own career would transpire, and I’m looking forward to seeing the unique way Olivia’s unfolds as well.

Kyle Denis: I’ll say yes. She’s already established a dedicated base — as evidenced by the historic streaming numbers of “Drivers License” – and she has very clearly only expanded that base and deepened her connection with them based on the first-week numbers for Guts. Given the fact that she’s already borrowed a few familiar bits of Swift’s M.O. – including various limited-edition vinyls and Easter eggs galore – she clearly knows how to keep that momentum going, and her upcoming tour will do the same, especially on a global scale. I’m not saying O3 will open with a million copies in its first week like Swift’s Speak Now did, but I do think that Olivia is already on a better track than most of her peers. 

Jason Lipshutz: No — and not because Rodrigo, who just released one of the strongest full-lengths of the year, is doing anything wrong, but because Swift is in an entirely different stratosphere than any other artist working today when it comes to modern popularity. Maybe Rodrigo gets there someday, considering her seemingly endless talent and her still-bulletproof catalog, but as she herself would likely admit, it’ll take a long, long time.

Danielle Pascual: A cautious yes. Debuting every song from your sophomore album in the Hot 100 top 40 is not a common feat. She also added 18 additional shows to her 2024 tour’s lineup, so demand is clearly there. However, I would’ve immediately answered “yes” if asked the same thing about Billie Eillish following the original success of “Bad Guy” — yet her follow-up album Happier Than Ever didn’t seem to have the same lasting impact that When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go? had. In this day of TikTok as new artists go viral every day, making a decades-long impression is easier said than done. And though Guts‘ pace is great so far, will people people regard it as one of the greatest pop projects of our time? Hard to say for sure, but I personally hope so.

Andrew Unterberger: Not necessarily, but the potential is still there. When comparing their two career timelines, Swift has the (somewhat ironic) advantage of having a very flawed debut — an album that boasted some excellent singles and certainly did well, but had enough room for improvement both artistically and commercially to allow for the great leap forward of Fearless. Such a jump was near-impossible for Rodrigo here, but she’s showing her commercial growth in other ways: namely, an arena world tour that includes four dates each at MSG, the Forum and the O2 Center. The sky’s still the limit for Rodrigo, but considering Swift is barely even tethered to this planet anymore, she’ll have to continue leveling up pretty consistently — and perhaps more importantly, she’ll have to really want to keep doing so — to reach near Swift’s heights.

We’d gone over a year — 54 weeks total — without a rap No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100. But for the first time since Nicki Minaj’s “Super Freaky Girl” reigned in Aug. 2022, a song tops both Billboard‘s Hot Rap Songs and Hot 100 charts simultaneously: Doja Cat‘s “Paint the Town Red.”

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“Red” hits No. 1 in its fifth week on the Hot 100, after having debuted at No. 15 about a month earlier. It’s the second No. 1 on the chart for Doja, following “Say So” with Nicki Minaj in 2020, and also breaks a streak of four consecutive country songs atop the listing — most recently Zach Bryan’s Kacey Musgraves-featuring “I Remember Everything,” which slips to No. 2 this week.

Why did “Red” explode to No. 1? And will it open the floodgates for rap singles atop the Hot 100 from here? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. After a good-but-not-great No. 15 debut on the Hot 100, “Paint the Town Red” has bounded to the Hot 100’s top spot in just five total weeks. What do you think is the biggest reason behind its quick post-release growth?

Rania Aniftos: Dare I say the controversy surrounding it? They say all press is good press, and the question of whether or not Doja has actually been possessed by the devil has certainly helped the song’s growth by getting people to stream and see what all the drama is about.

Kyle Denis: The biggest reason is probably the fact that it’s a genuinely catchy song. The hook is sticky, but it’s the Dionne Warwick “Walk on By” sample that really makes it an earworm. It also helps that Doja has kept her name and brand at the forefront of people’s minds ever since she first started teasing “Attention” a few months ago. By folding some fans’ valid concerns of her allegedly problematic boyfriend into a larger commentary on parasocial relationships, Doja has been able to reap the benefits of the age-old “all press is good press” truism.

Elias Leight: These days, five weeks might not even be considered “quick” growth — in recent years there has been so much emphasis in the music industry on seeing explosive movement from singles right away. This has led some executives to worry that great songs with the chance to become real hits are being abandoned too quickly if they don’t show that type of eruption in their first week or even first day of release. That backdrop makes the trajectory of “Paint the Town Red” all the more interesting: It has grown regularly week-over-week at streaming, radio and TikTok, eventually working its way to No. 1. In most cases, that’s probably a more sustainable path than arriving at the top.

Jason Lipshutz: Based on my own interaction with the song — going from “Huh, interesting track with a cool sample” to “Wow, one of the best singles of the year” in the span of a few weeks — I’d guess that “Paint the Town Red” revealed its subtle strengths as both a radio smash and streaming playlist staple to enough listeners since its release. Those two back-to-back refrains pack quite the one-two punch, Doja Cat jams multiple memorable lines into her verses, and the Dionne Warwick loop will be stuck on repeat in your head for an hour after a single listen. “Paint the Town Red” may not have been an immediate smash, but it’s a smash nonetheless.

Andrew Unterberger: “Red” is indeed a grower, and Doja has always been masterful at promoting singles in both the traditional ways (music videos, radio promotion, memorable performances) and the more modern ways (stoking virality, inserting herself into the pop conversation). You don’t see a lot of singles with trajectories like this in the 2020s, but it’s not a fluke that so many of the ones that do come from Doja Cat.

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2. Though Doja Cat has been as unavoidable on radio and streaming as nearly any pop artist of the 2020s, this is only her second No. 1 hit, following “Say So” in 2020 with Nicki Minaj. Do you think the second No. 1 (and first unaccompanied one) is meaningful for her career, or is it just another one of many accomplishments she’s notched in recent years? 

Rania Aniftos: Coming off a wildly successful year following Planet Her’s release, I would consider a Hot 100 chart topper for a new album era incredibly meaningful. It indicates that she’s established herself in popular music as an artist that has broken away from relying on social media virality for a hit — ultimately leading to a long-lasting career.

Kyle Denis: I think that this is definitely a meaningful moment for Doja’s career. For one, “Paint the Town Red” is far enough removed from the disco-tinged frothiness of “Say So” that the song proves that she can top the Hot 100 without relying on that specific sound. Moreover, this second chart-topper comes during a period of intense controversy and notoriety for Doja. While a healthy chunk of all that is self-inflected, achieving a Hot 100 No. 1 during a time when many people are turning against you is certainly nothing to scoff at. The success of “Paint the Town Red” is proof of the durability of Doja’s brand.

Elias Leight: A second No. 1 is helpful as a way of separating an artist from the competition. Especially when viral trends drive so much listening activity, a wide range of artists can top the Hot 100 once. But it’s hard to catch that sort of wave twice. Returning to the peak of the Hot 100 for a second time helps demonstrate an act’s staying power.

Jason Lipshutz: The fact that Doja Cat’s Planet Her didn’t include a No. 1 hit on the Hot 100 represented more of a chart bug than a feature, considering the fact that five singles from her 2021 album reached the top 20 (and a post-Planet Her single, the Elvis track “Vegas,” did so as well). “Paint the Town Red” reaching the top of the chart continues the momentum of her last era, but Doja Cat was clearly a multi-platform superstar regardless of where the single ended up peaking, making the new No. 1 the latest in a string of wins rather than a professional game-changer.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a big deal in that her Scarlet era already has a top-line item on its resumé that (somehow) her Planet Her era never accomplished — and when you’re a pop star of Doja Cat’s size and stature and still climbing to new heights, that’s fairly major. But mostly it just means that even with some of the PR hits she’s taken this year, she’s not due for a commercial fall-off anytime soon.

3. “Paint the Town Red” is the first song classified by Billboard as a rap song to top the Hot 100 in over a year. Does it being the song to break that streak say anything to you about rap’s current place in the mainstream? 

Rania Aniftos: Maybe my finger is way off the pulse, but I’m so shocked at this information. Rap is such a mainstay in the music world to me, that it’s so strange that Ice Spice, Lil Durk or Lil Wayne haven’t climbed up the chart with their releases this year. If anything, “Paint the Town Red” will hopefully remind fans that rap isn’t going away, even if it took a break from the No. 1 spot.

Kyle Denis: I think this tells us that we’re moving back to a place where aggressively pop-rap songs are the hip-hop tracks to top the Hot 100. While that’s always been the case to some extent, with two pop-rap songs being hip-hop’s most recent Hot 100 chart-toppers, it feels like we’re moving further away from a time when less obviously crossover-aimed rap songs from likes of Migos or Travis Scott could top the chart and spend lengthy stays in its upper regions. Moreover, the Hot 100 success of “Paint” tells us that hip-hop is doing just fine, its reach and influence will always be present — just in a different way than it has been for the past 7-10 years.

Elias Leight: Doja Cat had a lot of success in the past with straightforward pop hits like “Say So,” “Kiss Me More,” and “Woman.” That previous history means that top 40 radio is leading the charge on her airplay, with “Paint the Town Red” charting higher on this week’s Pop Airplay chart (No. 14) than R&B/Hip-Hop Airplay (No. 19). Most rappers aren’t able to rely on that much pop radio support. 

Jason Lipshutz: Yes and no: 2023 has been an up-and-down one for popular rap music, with some commercially underwhelming A-list projects and false starts by rising stars balanced out by a multi-week Billboard 200 chart-topper like Travis Scott’s Utopia and an exciting new mainstream voices like Ice Spice. I’m very happy to see a rap song finally top the Hot 100 in 2023, although it’s worth pointing out that several others — from Lil Durk and J. Cole’s “All My Life” to Gunna’s “Fukumean” to Travis Scott and Drake’s “Meltdown” — reached the top 5 in recent months, often blocked from the No. 1 spot by a smattering of dominant country singles. So while country has enjoyed an astonishing year at the top of the Hot 100, it’s not like rap music has been absent from the chart’s upper reaches.

Andrew Unterberger: It maybe says something about how major crossover appeal is more necessary than it used to be for a rap song to break through on this level. Back at hip-hop’s streaming peak in the late ’10s, rap songs could pile up stream counts so massive, often immediately, that it almost wouldn’t matter if they worked on top 40 or ended up spreading to widely varied corners of the internet. Now, with hip-hop’s streaming dominance a little less overwhelming, it’s not so easy to get there without some help from those other formats and audiences.

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4. Meanwhile, the prior rap artist to score a Hot 100 No. 1 — Doja’s old “Say So” co-star Nicki Minaj — bows at No. 22 this week on the Hot 100 with the much more pop-focused “Last Time I Saw You.” Do you see that song having a “Paint”-like trajectory of chart growth, or will it likely fade from its debut?

Rania Aniftos: While I think “Last Time I Saw You” will likely fade, Nicki’s definitely got more up her sleeve. I wouldn’t be surprise if a number of songs off her upcoming album turn into instant classics.

Kyle Denis: I think there are definitely a few parts of “Last Time I Saw You” that have the potential to go viral and boost the song’s overall consumption. As it stands, however, unless there’s a concerted push to truly market this as Minaj’s current radio single, I think it’ll fade from here. Maybe it gets a bit of a second wind when Pink Friday 2 arrives.

Elias Leight: Predicting growth is pretty impossible at a time when a viral trend can start more or less randomly. That said, Minaj’s recent chart successes have tended to start strong and then fade, rather than grow over time. She effectively teased “Super Freaky Girl” before it was out; the single debuted at No. 1 but then fell to No. 7 in its second week. Her version of “Princess Diana” with Ice Spice opened at No. 4 and then fell to No. 29. “Barbie World,” another Ice Spice collaboration, opened at No. 7 and then dropped to No. 35. The buzz around the Barbie film helped it rebound as high as No. 8, where it stayed for two weeks, but it never matched its first-week peak.

Jason Lipshutz: “Last Time I Saw You” is a smart change-up for Nicki Minaj, a melodic pop-rap track that’s downright hummable and genuinely heartfelt. Minaj found a lot of recent success on the Hot 100 prior to her latest single, but “Last Time I Saw You” is emotionally affecting than her more club-friendly fare; I’d bet that listeners return to it in the coming weeks, and while I’m not sure it will reach the top spot like “Paint the Town Red,” I could certainly see the track growing into the top 10.

Andrew Unterberger: To be honest, I don’t have a good read on this song yet — I like it, but it’s so low-key and unassuming by Minaj’s standards that I’m not totally sure where it fits for her in a pop single sense. I could very easily see it creeping its way into streaming and radio playlists and becoming a slow-burning hit in the fall, but I could also see it fading rapidly and becoming one of those in-between Nicki Minaj singles that kinda gets left behind within her discography.

5. Now that the streak is over, do you see rap making up for lost time with a flurry of No. 1s to follow over the remaining months of 2023 — or has popular music shifted too much in the past couple years for it a return to that state of supremacy to be likely? 

Rania Aniftos: I can’t help but feel like we’re about to enter a new era for rap music. It feels like all the power players are in the kitchen cooking, and I’m so excited to see how new releases from Nicki Minaj, Cardi B and hopefully Drake will affect the charts. 

Kyle Denis: I think 2023, in general, has been a year of transition for mainstream music. There were a lot of great achievements across major charts from a variety of genres this year. I don’t think we’ll suddenly see a surge of hip-hop Hot 100 No. 1s, but those songs will still make it to the top 10 with relative ease. The sound of popular music is definitely shifting, but I’m not convinced it’s landed on a destination yet.

Elias Leight: There’s a Drake album coming soon; it would be surprising if that doesn’t yield a No. 1 hit for at least a week. But due to Doja Cat’s history in pop, her success probably doesn’t signify a larger shift for hip-hop. 

Jason Lipshutz: I mean, we have a Drake album about to arrive, a Nicki Minaj album slated for the fall, a Cardi B album (hopefully, maybe) on the horizon, and… oh yeah, a flurry of Doja Cat songs joining “Paint the Town Red” on Scarlett. I’d be pretty surprised if we don’t get at least two more rap chart-toppers before the end of 2023.

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t really see it happening. Certainly there are some rap heavy hitters still yet to deliver on long-promised projects this year, and a No. 1 or two may follow from there. But in this sort of transitional period for mainstream hip-hop, with audiences more fragmented than ever, it seems like four-quadrant support for any one rapper or rap hit is harder to come by than it has been in a long while. At the very least, I don’t think the rap-monopolized landscape of 2018 is coming back anytime soon.