five burning questions

March has ended up a much more crowded pop month in 2024 than it has the past few years, with new albums delivered or expected from big names like Justin Timberlake, Kacey Musgraves, Shakira, Future x Metro Boomin and Beyoncé. But up first among the A-listers was Ariana Grande, and her first-week performance should set the star standard for the rest of the month, if not even longer.

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Grande debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week with her recently released seventh album Eternal Sunshine, moving 227,000 units in the set’s first week of availability — easily outshining the 149,000 first-week units previously moved by Ye & Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 1, 2024’s prior high-water mark. Meanwhile, the set’s new single “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait for Your Love)” also debuts atop the Hot 100, making for the album’s second No. 1, following the fast-starting, quickly receding “Yes, And?”

How should Ariana feel about her big debut week? And will “We Can’t Be Friends” have better chart endurance than its predecessor? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

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1. Ariana Grande debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 227,000 units moved — up about 30% from the 174,000 Positions bowed with in 2020, though still down from the 360,000 Thank U, Next debuted with the year before. On a scale from 1-10, how excited do you think Grande should be with that entrance?

Katie Atkinson: 10. Any time a veteran artist builds on their last release – in this case, selling even more than she did with her most recent Billboard 200 No. 1 album – it’s cause for celebration. Her fanbase clearly missed her and didn’t go anywhere, and in fact grew in numbers this time around. So she didn’t match her Thank U, Next numbers… yes, and? This is excellent news for Ari all around.

Kyle Denis: 9. Eternal Sunshine pulled first-week numbers that are comparable to that of the two albums she released when she was arguably at a popularity peak in terms of her social media presence and general media coverage. Furthermore, Eternal Sunshine arrived on the back of considerable controversy regarding Grande’s personal life, as well as a lead single that garnered fairly lukewarm reception. Despite those obstacles, Grande pulled off the year’s best sales week yet with an album on which she wrote nearly every song by herself. That’s got to feel pretty amazing – especially for an artist who has spoken at length about how much Eternal Sunshine feels like a new chapter in her life and career. 

Lyndsey Havens: 10. Regardless of units, I think the cultural imprint of Eternal Sunshine is almost (if not just) as significant as Thank U, Next. Plus, Thank U had the added boost of following Sweetener — which likely led to a larger first-week sum, as it arrived within six months of its predecessor and continued to offer a behind-the-scenes look at Ari’s most front-facing era. With Eternal Sunshine, the first week showing is impressive for a variety of factors: the rollout was swift, with only one single in “Yes, And?” arriving ahead of the album’s release; Ari herself has been somewhat out of the spotlight – despite inspiring countless headlines – as she filmed Wicked; and she was selective with press leading up to its arrival. All in all, a No. 1 debut is always something worth celebrating – and even if its opening week had fallen short, Ari made this album for herself. As she declared in “Yes, And?”: “I’m so done with caring with you think.” 

Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Eternal Sunshine follows the longest recording gap in her career, and while lead single “Yes, And?” debuted at No. 1 on the Hot 100 in January, the song hasn’t functioned like a months-long top 10 smash on the level of something like the Thank U, Next title track. With those factors in mind, Grande returning with the biggest debut of the years so far, and an even stronger first-week performance than that of Positions, has to feel highly encouraging, and the confirmation of a superstar who still generates a ton of excitement even after a relatively prolonged break. 

Andrew Unterberger: Without “Yes, And?” and its relatively muted reception, I would’ve said 7. Following it, I might say 9. We’ll split the difference and say 8 overall here: It’s a very fine first-week total that feels even finer since Grande looked at least slightly at risk of coming in soft following the somewhat iffy response to its lead single.

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2. This album was promoted somewhat unusually compared to Grande’s other recent releases, considering that it was announced months in advance, but only with one new song dropped pre-release — the No. 1-debuting but somewhat coolly received “Yes, And?” Do you think the first-week debut justifies the promotional strategy, or did she potentially leave units on the table?

Katie Atkinson: It justifies the strategy, because her fans consumed almost everything all at once, instead of skipping over the pre-release tracks they’d already heard. The album’s commercial success appears to be the icing on top of an artistically and emotionally fulfilling rollout for Grande, too, given that the project is themed around the end of her marriage and the start of her new relationship, so she’s able to deliver it as a complete work from start to finish. “Sharing it has re-opened a lot of little and big feelings alike and it has been an emotional week in many ways!” she wrote on Instagram to celebrate her No. 1 debut, “but your overwhelmingly loving response to it all has made me feel such joyful, human connection and comfort.” Much of that response was possible by saving almost the full album for release day.

Kyle Denis: Absolutely — to both, kinda. There’s no doubt in mind that with a stronger-performing lead single, Eternal Sunshine could have at least crossed the 250,000 mark. Nonetheless, I do think the limited appearances and intentional focus on the music is a campaign much better suited for 2024 Ariana Grande than, say, 2014 Ariana Grande. 

Lyndsey Havens: I’ve always been a fan of a highly anticipated album being preceded by one track – and not even its best one. My guess if that Ari may have not cared all that much about her album’s debut week, and instead of worrying about leaving units on the table she was more concerned with making an album that would last. It seems as if the rollout plan is just heating up, rather than coming to a slow stop – and to me, that’s a strategy that only a seasoned pop player can pull off so well. 

Jason Lipshutz: The first-week performance of Eternal Sunshine — plus the fact that both its lead single and second single hit No. 1 on the Hot 100 — makes the rollout look like a stroke of genius. Grande was able to generate excitement around her return with “Yes, And?,” then preserve a lot of that anticipation around the rest of the album; “We Can’t Be Friends” was a clear standout upon its release, and a new music video was locked and loaded in order to help Grande score back-to-back chart-toppers. Of course, none of this works if Grande didn’t come correct with the new music, but as far as releasing that music for maximum impact, I’m not sure how you could have drawn it up better.

Andrew Unterberger: It maybe validated it, but it definitely rescued it. “Yes, And?” was a fine-enough “I’m back” single, but it probably wasn’t quite the undeniable smash that fans were hoping for after what was essentially a three-year absence for Grande. To see that song quickly tumble out of the top 10 and decline to follow it up was really putting herself at risk if the album didn’t deliver immediately. But it did — helps of course that the album is very, very good — and now the whole thing seems like it’s unfolded exactly as it should have. All part of Grande’s brilliant design? Only she knows for sure, but it doesn’t really matter at this point anyway.

3. Eternal Sunshine ultimately outperformed most early first-week projections, largely because consumption of the album — in particular lead single “We Can’t Be Friends” — continued rising past the weekend. Why do you think the album managed to maintain its momentum at a time when albums so often begin fading almost immediately after release?

Katie Atkinson: There was a lot of discourse online about what each song was about and what it said about her relationships, old and new. And for “We Can’t Be Friends” specifically, there’s the music video that takes the album’s Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind inspiration to its literal conclusion by re-creating vignettes from the film with Ariana stepping for Kate Winslet and Evan Peters stepping in for Jim Carrey. It bears repeat viewings for how beautiful and very, very sad it is. (And as the YouTube commenters have pointed out, it’s nice to see a “playful/smiley” version of Peters, who typically plays very dark characters.)

Kyle Denis: It’s not the most mind-blowing answer, but Eternal Sunshine is simply a great album that gets better and reveals more layers (both musically and conceptually) with each listen – and not too many mainstream pop albums are doing that currently. Grande also used to be notorious for how she would shower fans with snippets and teases months before releasing an album. With none of that happening this time around, fans had no choice but to sit with the album and immerse themselves in the world Grande and her collaborators crafted.  

Lyndsey Havens: I think it’s directly correlated to the fact that projections were low for this album. On a musical level, it’s clear that Eternal Sunshine is Ari at her most confident – each song, especially lead single “Yes, And?” proves as much. And as it pertains to the album’s rollout, that self-assuredness has seemed to carry over. It’s as if Ariana knew she was sitting on gold – it was only a matter of time until everyone else saw the sparkle, too. 

Jason Lipshutz: Multiple factors could have helped Eternal Sunshine sustain its streaming numbers beyond its first weekend, but the main reason is the most obvious one: the album is really, really good. Eternal Sunshine has been met with acclaim by both Arianators and overall pop fans alike, and along with immediate interest in “We Can’t Be Friends” as a breakout single, fans kept returning to, and gobbling up, the album on streaming services. The album outpacing its early projections bodes well for its long-term commercial health — I could see Eternal Sunshine hanging around the top 10 of the Billboard 200 for a while based on this type of universal embrace.

Andrew Unterberger: Grande’s extremely busy and visible weekend no doubt helped a good amount: Following the release of Sunshine that Friday, she brought “Friends” (and albummate “Imperfect for You”) to SNL on Saturday, while also acting in a couple sketches, then appeared at the Oscars to present best original song with her Wicked co-star Cynthia Erivo on Sunday. For a star who felt like she’d largely been absent for the past three years to suddenly be everywhere again undoubtedly made sure she was on everyone’s mind throughout the rest of the week, and no doubt helped those first-week streams a decent amount.

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4. While “Yes, And?” bowed at No. 1 at the Hot 100, it also slipped out of the top 10 two weeks after, not returning to the top tier until this week (when it rebounds to No. 10). Do you think “Friends” will follow a similar trajectory of sliding post-release, or will it be more enduring as a hit than “Yes, And?” has thusfar proven to be?

Katie Atkinson: Well, if you’re asking for me personally, I love “Yes, And?” and its Paula Abdul-indebted music video a lot. But after hearing the full project, “We Can’t Be Friends” feels far more in line with the theme of the album. So while I hope there is a world where “Yes, And?” endures, I will totally understand if the song that’s more emblematic of the album is what fans associate with it in years to come.

Kyle Denis: I think “Friends” will dwarf “Yes, And?” pretty easily. It’s much more easily digestible from a sonic and lyrical standpoint, Grande’s SNL performance was stellar, and the track’s stability throughout its first week signals that audiences are genuinely connecting with it. Although it’s a highly competitive spring — with Cowboy Carter, Tortured Poets and more Vultures LPs on the way — I see “Friends” sticking around the Hot 100 top 10 well into the summer. Hopefully by then, however, “The Boy Is Mine” will have emerged as the album’s next single. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think now that we have the full Eternal Sunshine package, both songs could sustain top-tier placements – though I do think “Friends” is more likely to stick around the top 10, especially as Ari continues to reveal more behind the scenes clips online. And while I love “Friends,” I think the question isn’t is if it will be more enduring than “Yes, And?” but if it will be the most enduring track on the album at all. Grande also chose album standout “Imperfect for You” to perform on Saturday Night Live, a stunning ballad that has yet to reach its full mainstream potential, and we’re now seeing stars like Olivia Rodrigo and Megan Thee Stallion sing along to a sped-up version of “The Boy is Mine” on TikTok. All is to say, I think the genius of this album is that there isn’t one true standout song – we need them all. 

Jason Lipshutz: “We Can’t Be Friends” sounds like the defining hit of this Ariana Grande era, a synth fantasia with blurring relationship lines and a big, heartfelt hook. “Yes, And?” has grown on me quite a bit, but its tone is slightly off-center compared to the rest of Eternal Sunshine; “Friends” captures the main ideas and sound of an album that fans have immediately championed, and I think that will help the single find more chart success than Grande’s previous No. 1 hit.

Andrew Unterberger: It does feel like “Friends” is a bit more of a pop bullseye than “Yes, And?,” and we should see that reflected in its chart performance. I don’t know if its run at No. 1 will ultimately be that much longer than the one week for “Yes, And?” however — the turnover on the charts this year has been much more consistent than it was early in the past couple years, and my recent prediction of a long run atop the Hot 100 for “Texas Hold ‘Em” already appears to have been proven over-enthused.

5. It’s been about a week and a half — where, roughly, do you rank Eternal Sunshine within Grande’s catalog so far?

Katie Atkinson: I would probably put it at No. 3 or 4 at the moment. I love that Ari took a big autobiographical swing on this one, but I might have needed a few dance floor moments to move it up in my ranking.

Kyle Denis: No. 2. Give it until the fall, and we just might have a new No. 1. 

Lyndsey Havens: This is the question I have grappled with the most. On one hand, I have always considered my top album Sweetener and Thank U, Next to be an unsplittable pair, coming in at Nos. 1 and 2, respectively. But the thing about Eternal Sunshine is that, to me, it is so good that I think it has done the impossible: broken the dynamic duo apart. Which is to say, Eternal Sunshine is looking at a runner-up spot to my forever No. 1 Sweetener, creating a bittersweet reality for Thank U, Next.

Jason Lipshutz: In a seven-album race, it earns the bronze medal. Eternal Sunshine represents another mature, high-quality album from Grande that’s more consistently pleasing than Positions but comes up just short of the transcendent nature of the Sweetener/Thank U, Next one-two punch. No shame in that game, of course; taken as a whole, Grande’s albums output has been dizzyingly good since 2018, turning her from a reliable hitmaker to one of pop’s very elite.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s in the exact middle of the pack for me: richer and more considered than her first three sets, but not as sonically satisfying as Sweetener, as sublime as Positions or as emotionally striking as Thank U, Next. Regardless, Grande is undoubtedly in the midst of one of the great album runs for any pop artist this century — maybe any artist, period.

If the chart-topping first-week debut for Vultures 1 wasn’t sign enough that Kanye West was once again back at the mainstream’s center, three weeks later we get an even surer sign: “Carnival,” the set’s lead single, has ascended to pole position on the Billboard Hot 100 in its fourth week.

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It’s Kanye’s first No. 1 on the chart since 2011 — when he was featured on Katy Perry’s fourth consecutive Teenage Dream Hot 100-topper, “E.T.” — and his first as a lead artist since “Stronger” in 2007. (It’s also his first major hit since receiving extreme backlash for his repeat antisemitic comments, for which he posted an apology in Hebrew in December.) Meanwhile, it’s the second visit to the top for co-lead Ty Dolla $ign, following his appearance on Post Malone’s “Psycho” in 2018, and the first for both of its featured artists: Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid.

Who does the No. 1 mean the most to? And does mean Kanye’s back at the vanguard of pop music like he was during his biggest years? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. “Carnival” is not only the first Hot 100 No. 1 for Kanye West since 2011 — since 2007, if you don’t count his not-particularly-immortal appearance on Katy Perry’s “ET” — and by most measures, his first true smash in at least a half-decade. On a scale from 1-10, how important is it for him at his point in his career to have an old-fashioned HIT-hit like this?

Kyle Denis: I think it depends on how you look at it. Did Kanye need a true smash hit in 2024 to cement his overall legacy? Absolutely not. Did Kanye need a true smash hit in 2024 to re-establish himself as a viable commercial force (particularly in terms of singles) in the mainstream? Yes. So, let’s go with a 6.5-7. 

Angel Diaz: Five? Ye is going to be polarizing whether his music is good or not. The old Kanye is gone and is never coming back. While I do think it’s cool to see him go No. 1 again, I’m not sure its’s going to matter in the grand scheme of things. I do think this is his best post Pablo album, though. Someone as talented as Mr. West will always have a puncher’s chance.

Carl Lamarre: If we’re speaking on Ye’s ego, a 10. Being able to dribble past his antisemitic comments and his feud with Adidas takes hall-of-fame precision. Not only did he land his 11th consecutive No. 1 album on the Billboard 200 with Vultures last month, but now he can hoist a No. 1 song on the Hot 100, all while playing the game as an independent artist. For someone as audacious as Ye, expect his turn-up and ego to match that same energy. 

Michael Saponara: 6. I don’t think Ye necessarily needed a smash as he’s always going to be an influential figure in society’s mainstream and connect with his fan base. However, becoming the first rapper to earn a No. 1 in three different decades and doing it independently at 46 has turned heads and legitimized his methods to the madness creatively. If anything, the mainstream acclaim is only going to embolden his voice when it comes to future decisions, for better or worse. Even the haters have to respect what “Carnival” has accomplished without much radio play and playlisting in a genre that’s lacked serious hitmakers in recent years. 

Andrew Unterberger: An 8. Obviously Kanye was going to be a major voice in music and culture for many years to come even if he never had another big pop hit — but having one, especially at a time when even major rappers are finding a lot more trouble scoring runaway hits than they maybe used to, shows that he still knows what really moves the mainstream in 2024. He’s certainly taking it as a major win himself, as evidenced by the ill-advised victory lapping he’s been doing on IG this week.

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2. While the headlines about “Carnival” will always be Kanye-focused first and foremost, three other artists also add a No. 1 to their tallies with the single: Ty Dolla $ign’s second, and the first for both Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid. Which of those three artists do you think has the most to gain from the song’s massive success? 

Kyle Denis: Probably Carti. He’s had proper hits in the past but as he’s delved deeper into his own idiosyncratic rage rap sound, traditional hits have proven a bit more elusive for him. This is a good look for him as he prepares for his next record and his long-delayed Antagonist Tour. As for Ty and Rich the Kid, a No. 1 is a towering achievement no matter how you slice it, but neither performer is the kind of artist that *needs* to top the Billboard Hot 100 to retain their fanbase and interest in their music.  

Angel Diaz: Carti 100 percent. He already has the youth and almost every new rapper these days is either influenced by him or is currently biting his style while sounding like “We got Playboi Carti music at home.” He should take advantage of this moment and drop the follow-up to his cult classic Whole Lotta Red, which is already four years old. Also, because we need more “schyeah” content.

Carl Lamarre: Rich the Kid with Ty coming in second. For many mainstream listeners, Rich’s most significant moments came during the 2017-2018 era when he unleashed “New Freezer” with Kendrick Lamar and “Plug Walk.” Though he had some highlights here and there, to the public eye, he drowned in oblivion until Ye tossed him a lifeline. The talent for Rich has always been there; he just needed the right opportunity, and on “Carnival,” he made the best out of it. 

Michael Saponara: Rich The Kid has been hibernating from the charts the last few years and he’s caught a lifeline with “Carnival” which RTK deserves a lot more credit for than Rap Radar co-host Elliott Wilson seemed to be giving him, in my opinion. With a No. 1 hit to his name, Rich will have more eyeballs on him than usual, which wouldn’t have been the case without his Vultures standout feature. Spending time around Ye and Ty will be a positive from a creative perspective, and it makes sense they’re capitalizing on the momentum and executive-producing his forthcoming project. 

Andrew Unterberger: Can only speak for myself here, but I certainly didn’t know that Rich the Kid still had the juice like that. Considering he’s only even touched the Hot 100 once this decade prior to “Carnival” — at No. 91 for precisely one week with the Lil Wayne collab “Feelin Like Tunechi” — I’m guessing he’s putting this No. 1 pretty high up on the updated CV.

3. Considering none of Ye’s past three projects have produced a breakout hit nearly on the level of “Carnival,” what do you think it is about this song that’s allowed it to achieve liftoff the way it has? Is there one thing in particular it does that puts it in league with past Kanye hits on this level? 

Kyle Denis: It’s definitely the catchiest Kanye single since the Life of Pablo era. The gospel-tinged tracks on Jesus Is King were always going to be hard sells – even though “Follow God” debuted in the top 10 – and the biggest tracks on Donda had their hit potential marred by a messy release and a comparatively less favorable period of public opinion for the rapper. 

Most importantly, however, Kanye tapped into youth culture with “Carnival” and took a literal back seat. He only has one verse on the song, while Carti (who has a massive cult following) and Rich the Kid take up most of the airtime. It feels like a latter-day Kanye record without containing too much of his actual voice; you don’t even hear Kanye at all on the part of the song that’s gained the most traction (the hook). By having rappers from a younger generation anchor “Carnival,” Kanye found the perfect primer for the song to be embraced by the TikTok streets, hence the plethora of trends that have helped the song stay viral on the platform. And, for what it’s worth, the general public sentiment towards Kanye has gotten a tiny bit kinder since his last LP. 

Angel Diaz: Playboi Carti is the easy answer here too. The kids love that dude. The honest answer, though? It’s an anthem. The football goon chant, the production, the unexpected Rich the Kid feature, the way Ty floats during his verse, Kanye’s mid verse about being cancelled or whatever, and Carti kinda, sorta sounding like a mystery rapper all makes for an unusual banger.

Carl Lamarre: Even though it didn’t chart as high as “Carnival,” I thought “Follow God” was a banger and underappreciated. For the former, it’s a matter of everybody playing their position to a tee and allowing the record to morph into this behemoth. The song has such bounce that it can elevate anything vibe-wise, ranging from a mosh pit to an intense workout. It can adapt and thrive in any environment. Expect this song to be a festival gem and sports arena go-to. 

Michael Saponara: I think “Carnival” builds off the stadium rage Ye initiated with Yeezus, which superstar artists of today like Travis Scott and Playboi Carti have carried the torch for and engrained it in rap’s mainstream. Those two, specifically, are members of the West family tree, and were clearly influenced by the futurism and rebelliousness of Yeezus. While Ye is often ahead of the curve, “Carnival” was digestible enough for hip-hop fans to spread like wildfire. 

Andrew Unterberger: Same thing that’s been true from Steam to Zombie Nation to Usher: Never underestimate the power of a good stadium chant. Especially considering most of Kanye’s new material literally makes its debut in stadium surroundings these days, it’s a natural fit that a bunch of soccer hooligans leading a partially R-rated singalong would go over with “We Will Rock You”-sized returns for him in 2024.

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4. “Carnival” has proven far and away to be the biggest breakout success from Vultures 1 so far. Do you think there’s likely to be another major hit from Vultures — and if so which track do you think is the most likely candidate? 

Kyle Denis: In my head, “Do It” is the next hit from Vultures. But that all depends on how quickly the other two Vultures projects arrive. 

Angel Diaz: It’s a toss up between “Paid” and “Vultures” for me. When was the last time we got a payday anthem? I feel like artists would mention getting paid on a Friday just in time for weekend club shenanigans in every other song back in the day. Johnny Kemp’s “Just Got Paid” immediately comes to mind, and I first thought that was the sample used at the end — but it’s actually from the Jodeci track “Get on Up” which is referencing Kemp’s hit record with the line “Friday night, let’s all get paid.” So it all comes full circle to me saying we need more payday music.

Carl Lamarre: “TALKING” has grown on me A LOT. If I’m Ye, I’m already trying to start the North West roll-out for her upcoming debut album. Imagine being the first father-daughter combo to have top 10 records in a calendar year. I’m also a huge fan of “BURN.” I can hear that song on a Rush Hour 4 or Bad Boys 4 soundtrack. It’s vintage Yeezy with a mid-90s, early 2000s feel. 

Michael Saponara: Not on Vultures 1, but other songs he’s been teasing definitely have hit potential. The Backstreet Boys-interpolating “Everybody” has been a fan-favorite at listening parties for months with the catchy chorus trading the ’90s boy band for Uncle Charlie Wilson. We’ll see if they can sort out potential clearance issues. Aligning more with the current landscape of rap, Ye and Ty have another possible banger in the arsenal with the slimy tentatively titled “Field Trip/Venom” featuring the versatile ensemble of Playboi Carti, Don Toliver and Lil Durk as guests. Those two would be my picks if they receive a proper streaming release on Vultures sequels.

Andrew Unterberger: Could definitely see “Paid” striking a vein, and the North parts of “Talking” could certainly find their way to a TikTok trend or two. But being real, Ye and Ty are already turning their attention to Vultures 2 — as will their fans in turn, no doubt — so anything that hasn’t broken out from 1 yet will probably have to wait for a random six-years-from-now revival, if anything.

5. Now that the re-mainstreaming of Kanye seems to be complete (for better or worse) following the major backlash of the past few years, do you see him once again being at the forefront of popular music like he was for most of the past two decades? Or has he been gone too long and done too much damage in recent years? 

Kyle Denis: Kanye has curated an audience that’s markedly different from the one that he pissed off with his antics over the past few years. For that reason alone, I think he’ll comfortably remain an unignorable figure in popular music. However, I don’t foresee him truly recapturing the cultural zeitgeist the way he did during his peak in the ‘00s and early ‘10s. If anything, he’ll probably continue to get more hits by way of strategic collaborations like “Carnival.” Does he get a legitimate solo smash in the coming years? I’m not sure I’d put my money on it quite yet. 

Angel Diaz: I want to say that he’ll be back on top, but I’m not sure he’s into success these days. Ye seems to be consumed by his enemies and in turn that makes him susceptible to self-sabotaging. He’s already started to do so with the latest posts he put on his Instagram Stories and feed — which have since been deleted — in which he took shots at everyone from Adidas to Christians. Someone must’ve told him to chill and enjoy his first No. 1 since 2011.

Carl Lamarre: He is enjoying a great run right now, and as a one-time super fan, despite his shenanigans, it’s interesting watching him try to bob and weave his way out of cancellation. Still, the odds of him returning to prime-time Mr. West, who was once doing blockbuster numbers in the mid-2000s, are slim because of the irreparable damage done.  

Michael Saponara: Kanye will always be part of the music mainstream scene no matter the circumstances. It definitely won’t be like the earlier portion of his career though. At this point, Ye has made it clear that he’s anti-industry, and he’s even teasing not putting his albums on streaming in the future, at least initially. Even with the backlash, he maintains the youth’s approval, but he’s just never going to operate like other music titans — and that’s what makes Ye, Ye.

Andrew Unterberger: He’s back, for sure, but he’s following as much as he’s leading now: “Carnival” has a little of that old Ye spark, but it also feels like he’s taking shortcuts to the prize rather than blazing his own path. That he can get there at all at age 46, more than two decades after his first No. 1, is certainly both impressive and meaningful. But will it inspire the same awe and reverence that his following was initially built on in the 2000s? Feels unlikely.

SZA dominated all of 2023 with her sophomore album SOS, topping the Billboard 200 for most of January and February, spawning a pair of top two Billboard Hot 100 hits in “Kill Bill” and “Snooze,” and ending with her being named our No. 2 Greatest Pop Star of the Year.

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Now, she kicks off her 2024 with the new song “Saturn” — expected to be the first taste of Lana, her much-anticipated upcoming deluxe SOS reissue. The twinkling “Saturn” bows at No. 6 on the Billboard Hot 100, already making it a higher-peaking hit than anything off SOS but “Bill” and “Snooze” — the latter of which is still kicking at No. 9 on the Hot 100, in its 63rd week on the chart.

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Does “Saturn” seem like a long-lasting hit? And what, if anything, does it tell us about what we can expect from the rest of Lana? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. “Saturn” debuts at No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that higher, lower, or about where you would’ve expected for her first new single following the blockbuster success of SOS? 

Hannah Dailey: No. 6 is a fantastic debut, and right about where I’d expect someone as huge as SZA to land with a deluxe track presumably from a reissue of an album that’s already well over a year old.  

Kyle Denis: I would say this is about where I would have expected it. Had this song dropped the night of the Grammys (during which SZA debut “Saturn” via a Mastercard commercial), it probably would have debuted a bit higher. There’s also the issue with the song’s mix getting updated after its initial release to DSPs, which resulted in a brief period of unavailability for the track. Regardless, a No. 6 debut for a relatively low-key release is certainly nothing to scoff at.

Jason Lipshutz: About where I would have expected, for a single that is preceding the Lana reissue of SOS but is not leading a whole new project. At this point, SZA is one of the biggest artists in popular music, so any new single debuting in the top 10 of the Hot 100 shouldn’t be a surprise, but “Saturn” doesn’t herald a long-awaited new full-length like “Kill Bill” (which debuted at No. 3) did with SOS, so a No. 6 start sounds about right. 

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, No. 6 sounds about right — it’s roughly in line with where the pre-SOS singles debuted, which is pretty impressive this far into the album’s cycle and while the top five on the Hot 100 has been pretty competitive of late. She’s not quite in 2011 Teenage Dream territory where even the deluxe edition cuts are debuting at No. 1, but she’s not terribly far off, either.

Christine Werthman: It’s right where I would’ve expected it to land: solidly top 10, with room to grow. SZA doesn’t have throwaway songs, so whatever ends up on Lana, the deluxe version of SOS, will be worth checking for and will likely do some damage on the charts. 

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2. “Saturn” is expected to be the first new taste of Lana, the upcoming deluxe reissue of SOS. Do you think it takes the SOS era to any particularly different or interesting new places, or does it more seem like a continuation of that album’s successes? 

Hannah Dailey: I lean more toward the latter – to me, “Saturn” feels almost like an epilogue to SOS, sonically and lyrically. The album finds SZA taking inventory of a lot of complex, difficult emotions and experiences, while the new track provides something of a thesis statement that ties them all together: “None of this matters.”  

Kyle Denis: For all intents and purposes, “Saturn” keeps us squarely in the SOS realm. Lyrically, she’s still in that place of self-deprecation laced with a touch of hope and a healthy dash of unflinching honesty. I think any song immediately post-SOS will feel like a continuation of that album’s success because it is. SOS lifted SZA’s career to new commercial heights and such a lofty debut for a less-than-seamless single release proves she’s operating at a different level now versus the years leading up to her sophomore album.

Jason Lipshutz: Based on “Saturn,” which sounds sonically and thematically in line with the primary vibe of SOS, Lana may very well be, understandably, a continuation of one of the most successful album eras of the past decade. Of course, SOS also contained plenty of stylistic curveballs, from the pop-rock of “F2F” to the alternative of “Ghost in the Machine” to the folk-pop of “Special,” so I wouldn’t expect Lana to sound like a monolith, either. I think we’re in store for a project that serves as a hard-earned victory lap, and a suggestion for where SZA might be heading next.

Andrew Unterberger: Yeah I’ll let the more astrologically inclined SZAlogists determine what “Saturn” truly portends about her new era — for me, mostly sounds like a very strong leftover.

Christine Werthman: “Saturn” comfortably floats alongside the other SOS tracks, with its atmospheric vibe — but it takes a whimsical turn, largely thanks to the arpeggiated, harp-like melody running underneath. I also like the idea of SZA looking out into the universe and demanding more for herself, as she sings, “There’s got to be more, got to be more.” 

3. Do you see “Saturn” becoming a long-lasting hit like the biggest SOS singles, or do you think interest in it will mostly recede from here (at least until the full Lana release)? 

Hannah Dailey: I’m not sure how far “Saturn” will travel, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up being a slow burn hit akin to “Snooze.” It doesn’t make a huge lyrical or melodic statement the way “Kill Bill” did, but the song’s stacked harmonies and psychedelic vibes make it super replay-worthy and I can see the lyrics being full of opportunities for TikTok trends. 

Kyle Denis: I think it all depends on how invested she and her label are in this song. There was really fervent interest in “Saturn” when the commercial first aired, so now it’s time to capture that energy and stoke it with a music video and a radio push if a long-lasting hit is the goal here.

Jason Lipshutz: “Saturn” has snuck up on me — on first listen, I thought it would be a bonus track that fades into the ether of her greater discography, but its ethereal production, halting pre-chorus and far-reaching hook have called me back for more repeat listens than expected. I shouldn’t be surprised, though, since neither “Kill Bill” or “Snooze” were immediate standouts for me on SOS, and now sound positively indispensable in telling the story of SZA and her sophomore album. Who knows if “Saturn” can run in the top 10 for months like “Kill Bill” and “Snooze” have, but at this point, I’m willing to bet that it’s another pretty big hit.

Andrew Unterberger: If there’s one thing we should have learned about SZA by now, it’s that she doesn’t really do flash-in-the-pan hits — she does long, slow braises. Without a major viral moment to continue its immediate acceleration, “Saturn” may fall back some from its initial debut, but it ain’t going away anytime soon: This thing will slowly but surely burrow its way into the hearts and playlists of listeners and radio programmers, just like the last 47 SZA singles have.

Christine Werthman: I think it has the potential to endure, especially in a live performance. I imagine hearing it in a show, those twinkling notes offering a reprieve from some of the more bass-heavy songs, cuing a shift in the lighting — a gentle disruptor in the setlist. “Saturn” is light on its feet, and there’s not a ton of that in SZA’s repertoire, so I think it has a solid place in the catalog. 

4. Speaking of those biggest SOS hits — “Snooze” is still in the Hot 100’s top 10 this week, its 24th week in the region, and 63rd on the Hot 100 in general. We’re officially out of fan-favorite sleeper hit territory now — do you think we’ll remember it as a career-defining smash for SZA? 

Hannah Dailey: Absolutely. The ability to score a guns-blazing hit single is just as impressive as crafting a song that sneaks up on people with its longevity, and “Snooze” has proved that SZA is an ultimate superstar capable of both. In that way, “Snooze” is just as much a testament to her legacy as “Kill Bill.” 

Kyle Denis: Easily. I’d even go as far as to say that for a sizable number of listeners, “Snooze” has long surpassed “Kill Bill” as the quintessential SOS song. In fact, there’s a strong argument to name “Snooze” as the defining SZA song, period.

Jason Lipshutz: Obviously “Kill Bill” acted as the breakout hit of SOS and became SZA’s first Hot 100 chart-topper, but “Snooze” has helped sustain the chart run of the album for several more months and is still going strong more than a year after its release. “Snooze” is more subtle than “Kill Bill” but no less sumptuous, and features one of SZA’s most vulnerable SOS vocal performances; it’s not the most immediate choice for a multi-quadrant smash, but that’s where it’s ended up, and deservedly so. When we look back at SZA’s career as a hitmaker, “Snooze” will be crucial in telling her story.

Andrew Unterberger: It was nowhere near immediate, but now it seems head-smackingly obvious that “Snooze” was destined for all-time greatness — very arguably the defining R&B smash of the 2020s thus far. It’s increasingly clear that SZA is not an artist whose work (or whose impact) can be judged without the benefit of months (maybe years) of hindsight. In fact, if you want to disregard pretty much everything we’re saying here about “Saturn” a week and change after its release, we couldn’t really blame you.

Christine Werthman: I truly did not expect “Snooze” to blow up when I first heard it on SOS. Shows how much I know. So, do I think “Snooze” will be remembered as a career-defining smash? I mean, originally, no, but now, yes?! Here’s my case for it: super chill, romantic song, plus a spicy, cameo-filled music video, all combining to fuel its longevity. Hindsight is 20/20, people.  

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5. What’s something you’d like to hear or see from SZA during the rest of the Lana rollout?  

Hannah Dailey: I’ll be most impressed if Lana can add to the story of SOS, or make us revisit SOS in a new, unexpected way. There’s no doubt that the songs on Lana will be good, I just hope they don’t sound like a handful of random tracks that simply didn’t make the cut the first time around.

Kyle Denis: I’d like to be super surprised and hear new tracks that we haven’t gotten snippets or leaks of yet. I also think it would be really fun to put out a version of “F2F” with a little more Lizzo. She’s already in the credits there and the two have made magic before with the “Special” remix, so that would be a welcome addition to Lana.

Jason Lipshutz: Give me an even harder pivot towards pop-punk than “F2F” — something that wouldn’t sound out of place at Warped Tour. I adore “F2F” and would love for SZA to dive even deeper down that rabbit hole, if only for one song on a deluxe-edition release. Call up Travis Barker and let’s get rolling!

Andrew Unterberger: I don’t say this about many R&B artists, but I’d love to see SZA do a classic cover or two. She’s such a new-school R&B singer-songwriter, and her greatness is so wrapped up in her lyrical relatability, but what older songs does she wish she had originally penned or performed? What would her version of Erykah Badu’s “On & On” sound like? 112’s “Cupid”? Shawn Colvin’s “Sunny Came Home”? I hesitate to even predict, since I’m sure she’d go a completely different direction than what I’d expect — but regardless, I’d love to hear where that would take her.

Christine Werthman: I’m down for more SZA in space: dreamy, ethereal, but still weighted by her no-BS lyricism. The best of both planes. 

If you thought Kanye West‘s time in the mainstream was done following his most recent and most impactful round of controversies — wearing a “White Lives Matter” shirt and making repeat antisemitic comments (which has since posted a public apology in Hebrew for), among other offenses — the reception for new album Vultures 1 should dissuade you of that notion pretty quickly.

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Vultures, co-credited to West and longtime collaborator Ty Dolla $ign, debuts atop the Billboard 200 this week — moving 148,000 equivalent album units, despite missing all of that tracking week’s Friday (and some of its Saturday) with the messy rollout of its release, and drawing a mostly favorable response from longtime fans (though more mixed notices from critics). In addition, the album lands all 16 of its tracks on this week’s Billboard Hot 100 chart, led by the No. 3-bowing “Carnival,” which seems well on its way to being the album’s breakout hit.

Is the largely positive reception justified? And what does the debut mean for Kanye’s comeback? Billboard writers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign’s Vultures 1 debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 148,000 first-week units. On a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think Ye and Ty should be with that debut number?

Kyle Denis: 8. For Ty, this is his first No. 1 album and the biggest sales week of his career – it doesn’t get much better than that. For Kanye, I have to imagine that this feels like a triumph. Vultures I suffered numerous delays, got yanked from DSPs mid-tracking week and served as his first attempt at an independent release. Despite all those challenges – and the general cooling on Kanye the Artist™ in the wake of his string of antisemitic comments and hate speech – he still scored his 11th No. 1 album and shifted nearly 150,000 units in a week. Nonetheless, we can’t ignore that audiences aren’t consuming Vultures as voraciously as they have Kanye’s previous solo albums – 2018’s ye, 2019’s Jesus Is King and 2021’s Donda – all of which crossed the 200,000 units mark in their first week of release. 

Carl Lamarre: If I’m Ty Dolla $ign, I’m ecstatic and through the roof. So, I’m flying high at a 10 if I’m him, considering this is his first-ever No. 1 on the Billboard 200. If I’m Kanye, I’m probably at an 8.5-9. I bumped Ye’s points down because I’m thinking about Mr. West’s ego and fragile psyche. Though this is his 11th consecutive No. 1 on the Billboard 200, this is Ye’s lowest opening week of his career (Kids See Ghosts did 142,000 but was billed as to its eponymous group with Kid Cudi in 2018). 2019’s Jesus Is King landed at 264,000 equivalent album units, while 2021’s Donda netted 309,000 equivalent album units. I don’t think Ye will lose sleep over the drop-off, especially after nailing a No. 1 album independently amid his antisemitic comments. For now, I’m sure Mr. West feels Teflon. 

Michael Saponara: 10. I think as long as they were well into six-figure sales and debuted at No. 1 this was a major victory for Ye and Ty – especially with the project being released independently and facing sampling and distributor issues messing with its availability on streamers throughout the week.

Damien Scott: Ye and Ty should be happy that Vultures 1 debuted at No. 1. Putting aside all the pump fakes on release day, which saw the album being taken down and re-posted on various streaming services, Ye’s acidic language and antics over the past year or so turned himself and anyone who associated with him radioactive. So, there was no telling how people would respond to a new project from him, especially one that’s been so sloppily rolled out. The lukewarm reception to the album’s advance title track didn’t help matters. So, I’ll say 10 — this is about as good as things could have went for Ye and Ty.

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say an 8. It’s not the kind of head-turning number West pulled up with previous releases — some of which were much less commercial-sounding than this — but it’s still an A-list number for 2024, especially in an incomplete first week. For a guy who’s spent the past few years being as toxic as Ye has, I’m sure even that level of embrace feels like a major win. (And obviously Ty should be thrilled with his first-ever No. 1 on the 200, even though it feels like he’s getting it in more of a supporting role.)

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2. In addition to the album debuting at No. 1, the album’s focus track “Carnival” debuts at No. 3 on the Hot 100, the highest-charting single for either artist this decade. Do you see it being a long-lasting hit, or will it fade relatively quickly following its bow? 

Kyle Denis: I think it will probably stick around the upper half of the chart should its streams remain consistent. “Carnival” is a song that works best live, so should a tour follow the duo’s Rolling Loud date, Kanye and Ty could have a genuine smash on their hands. On the other hand, “Do It” stands out as a possible hit thanks to that “Back That Azz Up” interpolation, as does the North West-assisted “Talking,” but that’s already had its day in the sun. 

Carl Lamarre: I can see “Carnival” in the top 20 for the next few weeks, especially with Kanye and Ty taking Vultures on the road with their upcoming headlining performance at Rolling Loud. We haven’t seen many new hip-hop songs crash the top 20 this year except 21 Savage’s “Redrum” and Flo Milli’s “Never Lose Me.” With the fierce combination of Ye, Dolla $, Playboi Carti and Rich the Kid, this song will be living at the top of the playlists for ragers and mosh-pit fanatics, especially with festival season underway.

Michael Saponara: Getting added to RapCaviar after having the most-streamed song of the week is a positive development in that regard, as Ye has been pretty much shut out of any radio play thus far with Vultures 1. If he does deliver on second and third volumes of Vultures, I believe “Carnival” will get washed ashore, but it’s far from a guarantee another batch West and Ty Dolla tunes are on the way in the coming weeks. 

Damien Scott: A few factors make it difficult to predict whether “Carnival” will stay on the charts or not. The biggest one is Ye’s unpredictability when it comes to following through with any plans he’s shared with the public. Judging from social media it seems like his team is going to try to capitalize on the moment by trying to institute a challenge and maybe shooting a video. But who knows. He could just as easily forget about the whole album and move onto Vultures 2 or whatever he wants to do next.

Andrew Unterberger: Certainly sounds like a smash to me. For better or worse.

3. Though critics’ takes have been mixed, Vultures seems to have the strongest reception among Kanye fans perhaps since The Life of Pablo. Do you see this album as a true return to form for Ye, or is that reception more a testament to the quality of his other recent releases? 

Kyle Denis: An album whose best tracks can barely stand shoulder-to-shoulder with most of The Life of Pablo is simply not a true return to form for Ye. I think the messy, sprawling tracklists and middling dips into different genres on his last few projects make Vultures feel like a promise of pre-2018 Kanye… but this is not that. While there are flashes of brilliance on the record, Vultures feels too redundant to be a great Kanye West record. 

Carl Lamarre: Lyrically, this was a porous showing by Ye compared to previous projects. Donda was a very slept-on album. Shed the fat and cut down the tracks by a few, and you have unquestionably one of the decade’s strongest hip-hop albums. As for the current album at hand, Ye’s production prowess remains God Level and is one of the reasons why he skates through the controversies. Anybody can be a beatmaker, but Ye’s musical arrangements, placement of guests, and usage of Ty’s voice as the lead instrument for Vultures made this album a solid showing. 

Michael Saponara: It’s a return to form in the fact this is the most “finished” body of work Ye has had since TLOP. He achieved the balance of having Vultures act as a fit inside the 2024 rap zeitgeist while also still being a sonic pioneer and curator for others to catch up to. I just have a tough time comparing Vultures to albums from well over a decade ago in West’s discography and think it’s an unfair bar to set.

Damien Scott: I don’t think Ye ever lost his form. He’s taken a bunch of diversions and clearly lost focus for a long moment. But I don’t think he ever forgot how to make music. Donda was a bloated mess of an album that had a bunch of half-finished sketches and ideas, but mixed in among those skeletons were moments of real brilliance. Vultures 1 is his most focused work since in years— all the songs are complete and seemingly finished; and the tracklist is not an unruly 20+ songs. The whole thing seems more considered than anything he’s released since TLOP.

Andrew Unterberger: Front to back, it’s probably both his most-satisfying and least-interesting album since Pablo. Like most of that album, Vultures feels sonically enveloping and masterful but lyrically sneering and obnoxious. For all hate that Ye got, give me a song as difficult and revealing as “I Thought About Killing You” or “Ghost Town” over pretty much any of the pit-starting anthems here.

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4. Despite being a co-billed artist on Vultures, Ty Dolla $ign has largely been relegated to a supporting role by most discussions of the album. Do you think it’s fair to mostly treat this as a Kanye album, or does that shortchange Ty’s contributions to the project? 

Kyle Denis: Kanye is clearly a more dominant vocal presence on Vultures, but Ty’s contributions are just as interesting and important. However, I find it more pressing to think about Ty’s involvement from a marketing/cultural standpoint. There’s a reason that Kanye did not return with a solo album. There’s a reason that he chose Ty Dolla $ign to embark on this journey alongside, and there’s a reason Ty agreed to the ride. We’re aware that Kanye is probably the most controversial mainstream musician in the world, so for his first full-length project since his worst phase of public perception yet to be a joint record is intriguing. To a certain extent, Kanye needed a less polarizing name attached to the record, but how does Ty reconcile the music with Kanye’s past few years?

Vultures may sound more like a Kanye solo album than a proper collaborative project, but we would be remiss not to properly grapple with the record in the way it was presented to us. 

Carl Lamarre: It’s what I said in answer No. 3: Ye is undoubtedly the conductor of this train. It goes beyond raps because he weaves in Ty and fits him in certain pockets. Ty is elite, but his bread and butter have always been hooks and features. What I would love to see for Ty — so his career doesn’t strictly lead with being Kanye’s sidekick — is having his next solo album executive-produced by Ye. That would be most beneficial for him as a solo artist. 

Michael Saponara: From a cultural standpoint, West was always going to dominate the conversation with all of the controversy surrounding him for the last couple of years. As for the music, Ty deserves a ton of credit for steering the ship at times and keeping Ye from going creatively off the rails on some tracks. West and Ty have proven to be cerebral collaborators and have a propensity to bring the best out of those they’re working with.

Damien Scott: I think that shortchanges Ty’s contributions to the album. The album is unmistakably a Kanye project in fit and finish. It’s kind of trippy listening to it because it’s an ouroboros of Ye musical history. All of the sounds and styles were originated or popularized by Ye at some point over the past 20 years, whether it’s the stripped down industrial maximalism of Yeezus or warm soulful bounce of TCD. It’s all here. But Ty does a good bit of heavy lifting, keeping the album balanced, making it more palatable and grounded than if Ye was left to his own devices. That must have been a tough task.

Andrew Unterberger: Love Ty and he is a welcome presence for much of Vultures — but the number of co-stars who could stand next to a personality as huge and self-centering as Kanye’s and not get chewed up along with the rest of the scenery is a short one, and does not include him.

5. West has obviously dealt with a tremendous amount of backlash in the past few years given his recent inflammatory statements and controversies. What does the debut of Vultures say to you about Kanye’s current standing in the mainstream, and how it’s changed in recent years (if at all)? 

Kyle Denis: To me, Vultures shows that Kanye is too big to disappear – at least for right now. He’ll always have an audience, and the ratio of dedicated fans to nosy detractors will fluctuate in tandem with his public perception. Moreover, Vultures could be a signal that people are generally weary of Kanye and his shenanigans. Even with its bevy of release-week controversies, Vultures didn’t feel as culturally dominant as Donda or Pablo or even Jesus Is King, to a lesser extent. Of course, these aren’t 1:1 comparisons, so maybe we will have to wait and see how the other two Vultures projects fare.

Carl Lamarre: No matter how deep Kanye sinks, fans will continue to throw him a life raft. Many have chucked deuces to Mr. West after his “slavery is a choice” and anti-semitic comments. Deservingly so, Ye lost endorsements and fans for his ignorance and hateful comments. Still, his legions of fans find ways to separate the art from the artist and come in droves every time a new album drops. That speaks to Ye’s musical career and its lasting impact on many people, especially as he’s now two decades deep into it.

Michael Saponara: It speaks loudly to those who have supported him and will continue to do so with an imaginary line being drawn in the sand. There’s still clearly a massive appetite for Ye, as Rolling Loud added an extra day for him and Ty Dolla $ign to perform next month. That doesn’t seem like it’s destined to change in the near future either, as long as the music/clothing remains up to par and culturally influential. What’s different is the scale at which he operates now creating independently, without the backing of industry titans such as Universal, Adidas and Balenciaga.

Damien Scott: While Vultures 1 went No. 1, it didn’t perform nearly as well as Donda. For example, it was the most streamed album in 24 hours on Spotify in 2021. This isn’t that. His antics and statements have done a good deal of irreversible damage. He’s still a massively famous artist, though — one who hasn’t performed live regularly in a long time, so it’s not surprising to see fans clamoring to see him in concert and at Rolling Loud. That said, I don’t think Vultures has done much to change his standing in the mainstream. But Ye has. His recent apology and his renewed focus on his music and apparel makes it seem as if he’s turned a corner. How long that will last is anyone’s guess.

Andrew Unterberger: Kanye was never going to totally disappear from the mainstream until he actively chose to do so. If nothing else, the more crowd-pleasing nature of Vultures (and the mild contrition he showed in advance of its release) shows that even as a now-independent artist, Ye has no interest in operating at the fringes — he still wants to be in a place to move the culture. It shouldn’t be particularly surprising to anyone that he still can.

Ariana Grande is back: After three years of relative quiet (outside of a chart-topping Weeknd collab here or there), the pop superstar returned earlier this month with the lead single from her upcoming Eternal Sunshine album, “Yes, And?”

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The house-flavored new song, offered largely in response to gossip about her personal life and body image in the intervening years, debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, edging past Jack Harlow’s reigning champ “Lovin on Me.” The song was helped over the top by a variety of remixes and edits, which assisted the song’s 2024-best sales debut (53,000).

What does Grande’s new song portend about her new era? And will the song stick around for a long time to come? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. “Yes, And?” debuts atop the Billboard Hot 100, albeit in a closer race with second-place-finisher “Lovin on Me” than some might have expected. Do you expect the song to be a long-lasting top pop hit, or more of a quick re-introduction of Grande’s new era before the rest of the Eternal Sunshine rollout?

Rania Aniftos: Grande’s standout hits from her albums are rarely the lead single, and I think that will probably be the case with Eternal Sunshine as well. I’m hoping for a less controversial track that actually represents the growth that Ari sees in herself over the next few weeks, and I hope that’s the one that stands the test of time!

Kyle Denis: I think this is definitely more of a quick re-introduction of Grande to the pop music scene. Rumors are already swirling about a new single arriving as early as next month, so I’d imagine we get at least one more taste of the album before March 8. With that being said, I also don’t think “Yes, And?” will freefall down the Hot 100. I doubt it spends multiple weeks at No. 1, but once it hits its stride on radio, it should end up being a solid hit that likely follows a similar chart run to her own “No Tears Left to Cry.”

Joe Lynch: I don’t see it being an ongoing threat for the No. 1 spot in the way that “Thank U, Next” and “7 Rings” dominated, but when it comes to Ari’s Hot 100-toppers, even a song like the Justin Bieber collab “Stuck With U” – probably her least beloved single to top the Hot 100 – remained on that chart for 18 weeks. She has an amazing voice that’s well-suited to the current radio landscape and she streams well, so I expect it to stick around… but would be surprised to see it at No. 1 for more than 2 weeks in total.  

Meghan Mahar: I think that “Yes, And?” has the potential to become a more dominant No. 1 over “Lovin on Me,” but it ultimately serves as a safe introduction to her Eternal Sunshine era. Historically, dance and dance-adjacent hits have performed well for Grande — but I feel that this was an opportune time to release a song like “Yes, And?” that is lighthearted and club-friendly. There has been a clear demand for these songs, as we’ve seen with the success of releases including David Guetta and Bebe Rexha’s “I’m Good (Blue),” Troye Sivan’s “Rush,” and Dua Lipa’s “Houdini.”

Andrew Unterberger: It seems likely to me to follow a “Vampire”-type trajectory: Just the one week on top, but at least a handful in the top 10, and a long run in the top 40 as radio picks up on it. Not an era-defining smash, but big enough to re-announce Grande’s presence with authority as needed.

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2. It’s already been over three years since the release of her most recent album, 2020’s Positions. Do you think Grande’s returning to pop music in 2024 in stronger, weaker or about the same standing as when she left?

Rania Aniftos: It’s a tough question, because while musically, she’s returning to pop in an equally powerful place as she left it, her public image has been a bit compromised over the past year due to headlines surrounding her relationship. I’ve already been seeing fan reactions to the song, expressing disappointment at the sentiment despite liking how catchy the track is — with longtime supporters feeling uncomfortable giving her streams and listening to the song. If she can gracefully navigate the personal aspects of her public perception, I think she’s geared up to create a Thank U, Next-like splash with her upcoming album.

Kyle Denis: Stronger. Although the split opinions regarding her romantic life are incredibly loud on the Internet, Grande is returning to the scene as an elder stateswoman of sorts. Last year, she celebrated the ten-year anniversary of her pop recording career, she has a blockbuster film (Wicked: Part One) on the horizon, and she already had five No. 1 hits this decade before “Yes, And?” was announced. You’d be hard-pressed to find a post-Grande pop star who can match her string of quality hit singles over the past decade – and that’s why her absence was so deeply felt. Just five years ago, Grande’s name was among the list of stars who had countless hits and no Hot 100 chart-toppers. Now, she’s expected to debut at No. 1 practically every time she releases music. If that doesn’t make it clear how much her position in pop’s hierarchy has changed, I don’t know what would!

Joe Lynch: Pop is such a youth-oriented (youth-obsessed, really) market that it’s hard to pretend like four years is nothing — and yet, did she really go away? Ten months ago, she topped the Hot 100 with the Weeknd duet “Die For You,” and her modern seasonal staple (“Santa Tell Me”) reached an all-time peak this month. It might be a new era, but don’t call it a comeback. Within a couple percentage points for error, I would say she’s as strong as when Positions dropped. 

Meghan Mahar: Stronger. Headlines about Grande in the time since Positions, whether they were about her relationships or teasers of her work on Wicked, kept her in the news cycle and fueled interest in her next project. What truly gives her a competitive edge, though, is the public’s need for a pop superstar. Many have released successful projects and grown to great heights over the past few years, but none have Grande’s artistic vision and vocal capabilities.

Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a little stronger. It’s hard to remember the last time a pop star was as palpably missed in the top 40 world as Ariana has been in her relative absence — if the popularity of Tate McRae’s “Greedy” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Nonsense” year were any indication, fans were practically champing at the bit for Grande-sized radio singles. Maybe some fans have turned on her, but as Doja Cat has proven multiple times this decade, hits solve just about everything — and Grande has never been in short supply of those.

3. “Yes, And?” adopts a fairly house-forward sound for Grande, resulting in her first-ever No. 1 on the Dance/Electronic Songs Chart. Do you think that foreshadows a full pivot to dance with Eternal Sunshine — and do you hope it does?

Rania Aniftos: I do! It’s a fun pivot for an artist who has been around for more than a decade at this point. It keeps things fresh, not only for her but also for her fans, and it plays on the nostalgia trend in music lately due to its 80s sound. With a name like Eternal Sunshine, she has to have some fun on this album, right?

Kyle Denis: No. In the same way that “Dangerous Woman” didn’t foreshadow an album of theatrical pop bangers and “No Tears” didn’t preview an LP filled with U.K. garage-inflected anthems, I don’t think “Yes, And?” is signaling a full dance pivot. Not to mention, Grande has dabbled with this sound before (2016’s “Be Alright”), so it isn’t exactly new for her. I think Eternal Sunshine will blend the best of her capabilities across pop and R&B like each of her last six efforts. Even though I’m not necessarily hoping for Eternal Sunshine to be a full dance record, I’ll gladly embrace it should that end up being the case.

Joe Lynch: Dance Ariana has always been one of my favorite Arianas (“Break Free” is GOAT) but the house-forward sound did surprise me a bit, simply because two major artists (Beyoncé and Drake) boosted that sound back to the wider public in 2022. I’m never angry at hearing house music, but it does seem like she’s following a trend on this one. So while I’d celebrate a dance LP, I’m hoping there are some sonic surprises afoot that push pop forward.   

Meghan Mahar: As much as I would personally love a full dance record, I don’t think that’s going to happen. Grande has had several dance and dance-adjacent tracks in the past: “Break Free” with Zedd (2014) and “Into You” (2016) came to mind when I heard “Yes, And?” and both came from albums with a solid range of sounds. The success of “Rain on Me” with Lady Gaga (another No. 1 debut) was likely a factor that informed the release of this song. I feel that “Yes, And?” foreshadows Grande referencing her past sounds and eras, but from a more mature place in her life.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s hard for me to see Grande going full club energy for a full album. Not that she couldn’t pull it off, but her truest sweet spot to me is still in the cozy confines of a soul-pop ballad or midtempo number, and I don’t think she’d want to limit herself strictly to the upper BPM ranges for all of Eternal Sunshine. I’m betting this song basically serves for its parent album as “No Tears Left to Cry” did for Sweetener: a blast to kick off her new era, which ultimately proves to forecast only a small bit of what the rest of the album has to offer.

4. The chart-topping debut for “Yes, And?” gives Max Martin his 24th No. 1 as a producer, moving him into sole possession of the all-time record. Do you think anyone will pass his mark anytime soon?

Rania Aniftos: Unless Mariah Carey enters a production-focused era of her career, I really doubt it. He’s dominating by a landslide among producers who are alive. 

Kyle Denis: I think this record is Max Martin’s to keep for a long while. Should Dr. Luke continue to find work despite his public fall from grace, it’s possible he will catch up to him. Nonetheless, I don’t think the producer who passes Max’s mark has gotten their start yet.

Joe Lynch: Well, I don’t think his runner-up (George Martin) is going to prove much competition in the 2020s, but Dr. Luke – who has produced or co-produced 18 No. 1s – could narrow the gap in the upcoming years. Even so, I think it’s pretty unlikely that anyone that he, or anyone, will take the lead from Max in the next five to 10 years.  

Meghan Mahar: No— the first runner up, Dr. Luke, is 6 songs behind Martin’s 24 No. 1 record and Martin is not showing any signs of slowing down. In recent times, it seems as if Dr. Luke has been working with a wider variety of artists, whereas Martin has committed more time to projects with a smaller roster. Martin’s strategy has paid off and aligned him with superstars and some of their best projects, like Taylor Swift’s 1989 (2014) and The Weeknd’s Dawn FM (2022). Securing this level of prestige takes a career lifetime to achieve.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s Martin’s to lose. You could look at someone like Jack Antonoff and think “Well, if he stays as Taylor Swift’s go-to guy for the rest of the decade, could that alone be enough to get him there?” But as ubiquitous as Antonoff has seemed for nearly a decade now, he still only has five No. 1s to his name — which means he’d need about three a year from now until 2030 to beat Martin’s current total. Not impossible, but the head start that Martin has amassed in his near-30-year career — and he ain’t done yet — is not a gap that anyone will be able to bridge without putting in decades of their own high-level work. And probably not then, either.

5. What’s one thing not really covered by “Yes, And?” that you’d like to hear or see from Ariana Grande on this new album and its accompanying promotional cycle?

Rania Aniftos: I don’t know if this necessarily answers the question, but I love how involved Jim Carrey was on The Weeknd’s Dawn FM, and since Eternal Sunshine got its name from Carrey’s 2004 film, it only makes sense for him to be on the album in some capacity. 

Kyle Denis: While “Yes, And?” is a great encapsulation of IDGAF energy, I’d like to hear more about what’s been going through Grande’s head ever since Positions. What has it been like filming your dream role (Glinda in Wicked)? How have you dealt with all the internal and external pressures that come with such an endeavor? In the past few years, it’s clear Grande has done a lot of growing up. From her wardrobe and general demeanor to her overall aesthetic and relationship with social media, she’s clearly matured a lot. And, of course, she went through a divorce in the public eye while juggling her music and acting careers; I’d love to see her dig into those concepts and emotions on Eternal Sunshine, which, judging by the title’s allusion to Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, she just might do.

From a purely musical standpoint, I think I’m most intrigued to hear how Wicked has impacted her approach to singing and songwriting. Could another “Jason’s Song” be on the way? I certainly hope so!

Joe Lynch: I’m not saying I want to hear a dance remix of “Popular” on her album, but with the Wicked adaptations occupying so much of her recent time, I’m champing at the bit to see Grande in full-on theater kid mode as she hits the late-night promo cycle. (Shout-out to her performance in 2016’s Hairspray Live!) Do theater kids run the risk of being a bit irritating? Of course. But she’s practically a national icon. Let her hit. 

Meghan Mahar: I love how Grande has showcased her versatility across her discography, but my favorite songs are the R&B selects and ballads. Her vocal range emphasizes the passion behind her lyrics, whether they be about being deeply in love (“pov”) or in deep pain (“ghostin”). “Yes, And?” is such a fun, carefree track — and I love this! It makes me want to dance with my friends in the club — but I also love a good cry. Her musical vulnerability, paired with behind-the-scenes content or stunning visuals (like the “pov” Vevo performance) in the promo cycle, would further cement her range. 

Andrew Unterberger: Ariana Grande has spent most of her career making pop for the bedroom — would she ever consider going full bedroom pop? Would love to hear working with Girl in Red. A Laufey duet could be dope. And how the hell have she and Billie Eilish (an avowed longtime Grande fan) still never worked together?

It may not officially be stick season anymore — the New England-area expression refers to the late fall, before the winter snow hits — but you certainly wouldn’t know it from looking at the Billboard charts.

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On the Billboard 200, alt-folk singer-songwriter Noah Kahan‘s Stick Season album climbs back up to No. 5, having previously hit No. 3 last June. Meanwhile, its title track climbs 18-14 on the Billboard Hot 100, resulting in a new peak for the set’s lead single, which was originally released back in August 2022.

How has Kahan continued to grow his breakout LP this long into its album cycle? And how much further should he keep trying to maximize its impact before he officially changes seasons? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.

1. Stick Season returns to the top 5 of the Billboard 200 this week — 15 months after first debuting on the chart and six months after peaking at No. 3 with the release of its We’ll All Be Here Forever deluxe edition. What would you point to as the primary reason that the album is still doing so well this late in its run? 

Eric Renner Brown: The steady drip of remixes has kept Stick Season in the cultural consciousness, while exposing Kahan to new fanbases. Kahan’s prominence in the discourse only continues to grow, by way of his high billings on festival lineups and his December turn as Saturday Night Live‘s musical guest, putting him on the radar of still more consumers. And fall just ended – prime time for our autumnal alt-folk king.

Hannah Dailey: I can’t remember the last time another artist approached collaborations with as much consistency and volume as Noah Kahan has, but every month since September he’s been giving new life to songs from the album by inviting other musicians to duet on them – Lizzy McAlpine, Kacey Musgraves, Gracie Abrams, Hozier, and next up, Sam Fender’s remix of “Homesick,” set for Friday (Jan. 19). This draws new listeners from other fanbases into the album while keeping his own fans excited about the material.

Kyle Denis: I’d have to say it’s Noah’s commitment to working the album. A lot of his contemporaries tend to abandon albums and eras after 1-2 singles, and some of them pump out multiple LPs within a calendar year. While he’s kept a steady stream of new releases, they’ve almost all been additions to the Stick Season universe. His strategy of updating the album’s songs by way of duets with different artists is doubly effective: His core fans have another incentive to revisit the album, and listeners who may only be familiar with the featured artist have a reason to check out Stick Season. 

Lyndsey Havens: I can’t quite recall the last time an artist has done so well at staying spotlight-adjacent. It’s a fine line to walk between staying top-of-mind and over-saturation to the point of turning fans away, and Kahan has done it perfectly. Since the release of the album’s deluxe edition, he has continued to churn out clever collaborations. He’s performed on Saturday Night Live and his name keeps popping up on summer festival bills. All of that would be enough on its own, I think. But then when you also consider the time of year – winter, in many parts of the country – Stick Season was made for this moment. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a combination of holiday streams and the usual slow start to a new year in terms of major new releases that have helped push this album back up the chart.

Andrew Unterberger: Kahan has done the most valuable thing you can do as a singer-songwriter enjoying a breakout moment in 2024 — built a whole world around his project. Between the reissues, the remixes, the live performances, the social media posting and teasing and the coherent, specific recurring lyrical themes, Kahan has made Stick Season into something more than just an album. How many other alt-folk singer-songwriters have you ever talked about in terms of “album eras”? (Well, outside of You Know Who in 2020.)

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2. The set’s title track also climbs inside the top 15 of the Hot 100 this week, reaching a new peak of No. 14 a full year and a half after its July 2022 release. Why do you think the song continues to grow, even after so many other subsequent singles from Stick Season have been released and promoted in the meantime? 

Eric Renner Brown: “Stick Season” is Stick Season‘s title track because it’s an encapsulation of the album and Kahan’s Whole Thing: The verses are intimate (and timely, given the COVID reference), the choruses are propulsive and anthemic, and, naturally, it’s about autumn. He knocked the song’s performance on Saturday Night Live out of the park, too. It’s fascinating to me that Kahan’s highest-charting Hot 100 success as lead artist is the one single he didn’t release a remix of with a famous guest.

Hannah Dailey: When a song is both catchy and well-written, there’s no limit to how far it can go. Noah is simply really talented at writing songs that stick in your brain without you getting sick of them, and that skill really shines on “Stick Season.” It also helps that the song is fairly cynical and self-deprecating, two traits that have become hugely trendy in pop lyrics as of late (as pointed out by our very own Kyle Denis).

Kyle Denis: Honestly, it’s probably the hook. Save “Dial Drunk,” there isn’t a hook as immediately arresting as the title track on Stick Season. Moreover, the song benefits from how different its sound is in comparison to the dominant sounds of the mainstream: Afropop, house music influences, Jersey club, etc. Of course, a years-long TikTok-focused marketing campaign also helped matters; Kahan first teased “Stick Season” back in 2020, finally released the track in 2022 and has continued to relentlessly promote the song even in the midst of subsequent releases. He’s been persistent in pushing the song in a way that has fostered a remarkably intimate relationship between his audience, himself and the song’s lyrics. 

Lyndsey Havens: I suppose it really is the season of the sticks right now. There are certain albums that have a cozy feel to them, and Stick Season definitely delivers – as does its title track. Yet, its genius is that it sounds just as much at home blasting from an amphitheater stage in the warmer months, too. And right now, we’re in that middle ground of wanting to nest while also looking ahead to warmer festival days.

Andrew Unterberger: “Stick Season” may have gone lightly viral back in 2022, but it never really got a full mainstream moment — not like it’s having now, with Kahan now firmly in the spotlight — and continued to plug away at streaming. So now it probably feels like a brand-new hit to a lot of people, and it’s perfectly situated to capitalize on the ground that “Dial Drunk” and its accompanying Post Malone remix broke in establishing Kahan as a top 40 proposition.

3. While many of the tracks on Stick Season have received new remixes co-starring big-name guests, its title track has not yet been so revised. If Kahan wanted to boost “Stick” to the Hot 100’s top 10, who’s an artist you’d advise him to reach out to as a new co-star? 

Eric Renner Brown: Kahan couldn’t have pulled this off earlier in the Stick Season cycle, but now that more people know who he is and he’s staked out some turf of his own: Marcus Mumford. You know you want to, Noah!

Hannah Dailey: Olivia Rodrigo!!! It feels pretty much written in the stars at this point, given how she’s already covered the song and they’ve both publicly said they want to work with each other. Besides her, I’d love to hear Noah’s voice collide with Jeremy Zucker or Bon Iver, or maybe get back in the studio with Chelsea Cutler for a “Crazier Things” sequel. I also think he could make something epic with one or all of the members of Boygenius, of whom he’s said he’s a big fan.

Kyle Denis: I think the obvious choice is Olivia Rodrigo. Her BBC Radio 1 Live Lounge cover of the song garnered millions of likes when it hit TikTok last October; I’d imagine an official duet would pull in some monster streams. 

Lyndsey Havens: Oh, it would have to be Olivia. She already knows the song, as evidenced by her cover for BBC Radio 1 Live Lounge, and the two artists have made their fandom for the other clear. I’d say it’s only a matter of time. 

Andrew Unterberger: Rodrigo is no doubt the home-run choice — but if the busy (and traditionally remix-averse) Rodrigo is unavailable, how about going a little more old-school with Adult Alternative fixture Ray LaMontagne, arguably New Hampshire’s greatest musical export of the pre-Kahan 21st century? His voice would sound pretty mighty growling that chorus.

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4. With the Stick Season era now being 18 months old and still gaining momentum, would you advise Kahan to keep going with its promotion and revising as long as the album continues to build its audience? Or would it be in his best interest to quit while he’s ahead in the near future and move onto what’s next? 

Eric Renner Brown: The Stick Season era may be 18 months old, but many people have been aware of Kahan for far less time than that. And many people still don’t know who he is at all! Stick Season is a juggernaut and has so many good and successful singles – I think he should continue to ride this wave for as long as he can.

Hannah Dailey: My instinct would be to move onto the next album as soon as possible, while he still has as many eyes on him as he does now. I can’t even imagine how big the hype is going to be for his next project. On the other hand, I think it’s really beautiful how committed he is to seeing Stick Season through with all of his touring, remixes, and social media activity. It shows how much he loves and believes in the album, and how genuinely he appreciates the reception it’s gotten.

Kyle Denis: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. I would advise Kahan to continue doing what he’s doing. Nonetheless, if another album track isn’t showing signs of single potential by the time “Stick Season” hits its commercial peak, it might be time to start teasing music from a new project – even if it doesn’t actually materialize for another few years. 

Lyndsey Havens: I say keep going. I really do commend him (and his team) for how well they have balanced this predicament – if you can even call it that – and with festival season ahead, he should continue to lean in. But hey, if he were to toss some new music into the set I wouldn’t be mad.

Andrew Unterberger: This is always the question, isn’t it? It’s tempting to tell him to just keep extending Stick Season for as long as the weather allows, but there is something to be said long-term for pulling back before he absolutely has to, and before he gets forever pigeonholed as The Stick Season Guy. I wouldn’t mind him using 2024 as something of a quasi-gap year — closing out his Stick Season touring and writing intermittently, while maybe keeping his name out there by returning the karmic favor on a couple peer remixes and maybe dropping a one-off single or two. Then in 2025, return in full force with the proper Stick follow-up.

5. With Zach Bryan and Noah Kahan experiencing extended breakout mainstream success in back-to-back years, who’s another rootsy singer-songwriter you might expect to have a similar breakout in 2024?

Eric Renner Brown: Tyler Childers has already amassed a huge live following; he’s headlining arenas and amphitheaters this summer, including two nights at New York’s Madison Square Garden. But he hasn’t had Kahan-level crossover chart success yet – his sole Hot 100 entry, “In Your Love,” peaked at No. 43 in August, even if it did also rack up three nominations at the upcoming Grammys. Childers is a bit more traditionally country than Bryan, who draws on rock sounds, and Kahan, who channels Mumford and Lumineers vibes – but he’s prolific and could hit new heights soon with the right single. 

Hannah Dailey: It’s a band, but I think Mt. Joy could be poised to follow on Noah’s trail. Briston Maroney, too.

Kyle Denis: Yola!

Lyndsey Havens: I’m rooting for Brenn! this year. I think he is walking a similar path as Zach and Bryan, but with a touch more pop sensibility that could help sustain folk music’s resurgence while also widening the fanbase to an even younger demographic.

Andrew Unterberger: Not the boldest prediction perhaps — you can currently find his “Pretty Little Poison” just 16 spots below “Stick Season” on the Hot 100 — but Warren Zeiders seems on the precipice of something pretty major.