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If you needed further confirmation of Sabrina Carpenter‘s star status in 2024, this week’s Billboard Hot 100 (dated June 29) offers pretty incontrovertible evidence: She occupies two of the Hot 100’s top five spots this week by her lonesome, while also claiming the chart’s apex for the first time.

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“Please Please Please,” Carpenter’s latest single — which debuted behind only Post Malone and Morgan Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” at No. 2 on the Hot 100 last week — climbs that final spot to No. 1 this week. Meanwhile, its predecessor “Espresso” is still lingering around the top five, sliding from No. 3 to No. 4. Both songs are expected to be on Carpenter’s upcoming Short n’ Sweet LP, now one of the most-anticipated pop albums of the year.

What does it mean for Carpenter that “Please Please Please” became her first No. 1? And what can other pop aspirants learn from her phenomenal 2024 success? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. This week, Sabrina Carpenter scores her first Hot 100 No. 1 with “Please Please Please,” while its predecessor “Espresso” remains in the top five on the chart. Does this feel like a particularly notable coronation moment to you for Sabrina, or is her stardom already practically old news at this point?

Christopher Claxton: I think this is a particularly notable moment for Sabrina. She’s already a star, we know that, but it’s pretty surprising that none of her tracks have reached No. 1 on the Hot 100 until now. In all honesty, I expected “Feather” to get to No. 1 or at least the top 5. “Feather” did go No. 1 on Billboard‘s Pop Airplay chart, but it’s different when you have a No. 1 on the multimeric Billboard Hot 100. Ultimately, I think she’s finally getting the airtime her tracks deserve.

Lyndsey Havens: The thing that I’m loving about Sabrina’s success right now is that there has been a sustained string of notable coronation moments over the past few months – and all the while, she’s not only managing to repeatedly top herself but also ensure no bit becomes too stale. It was just this March that “Feather” was Sabrina’s biggest hit to date, and that followed “Nonsense,” which felt like that would be her biggest hit. Then came “Espresso,” and it felt like that would surely be her biggest hit, and now here we are with “Please.” To me, this kind of momentum is increasingly rare – and entirely deserved. But now that “Please” has indeed become her biggest song to date, scoring Sabrina her first Hot 100 No. 1, I’m curious to see what could happen next. Where do you go when you’re already at the top?

Jason Lipshutz: “Espresso” opened the floodgates for Sabrina Carpenter as an A-list pop artist, but one could have argued that she was still a one-smash wonder, as she scored her first top 20 hit with an undeniable refrain. The ascent of “Please Please Please” erases any doubt that Carpenter is among pop’s upper tier, though — especially considering that it climbed higher than “Espresso,” with both a less immediate hook and more subtle approach. Carpenter was already a star prior to “Please Please Please,” but her first Hot 100 chart-topper ensures that her stardom will transcend her breakthrough hit. 

Andrew Unterberger: The Coachella and Governor’s Ball gigs she played after the respective releases of “Espresso” and “Please Please Please” felt like the coronation moments to me. But this is kind of an “If you don’t know, now you know” moment for Carpenter’s burgeoning A-list status: In case the memes and live clips and streaming totals didn’t persuade you, there’s really just no arguing with having two of the top five songs (including the No. 1) on the Hot 100 during one of the most competitive moments in recent pop history. She’s a superstar.

Christine Werthman: Let’s go straight to the source, shall we? “MY FIRST #1 on the @billboard HOT 100!!!!!!! And espresso at #4,” Carpenter wrote on Instagram. “I’m very immensely grateful so i will surely always remember this day for the rest of my life!” Others might consider her a star already, but the No. 1 is the ultimate feather (also a great song) in her cap. This is absolutely a big moment for her. 

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2. While “Espresso” put Carpenter at top 40’s forefront and generated a ton of Song of the Summer buzz, “Please Please Please” has already reached commercial heights in two weeks that “Espresso” has yet to reach in over two months. What is it about “Please” that allowed it to become her first song to get over the top on the Hot 100?

Christopher Claxton: Several factors contribute to the rapid success of Sabrina Carpenter’s “Please Please Please” compared to “Espresso.” For one, it’s catchy and relatable, thus able to resonate more with a broader audience. Carpenter also has a new group of fans after she finished supporting Taylor Swift on the Eras Tour. Her fanbase is not only more active in streaming and promoting her music due to the consistent success of her previous songs, but she also has a new set of supporters, contributing to the greater anticipation built around the song.

Additionally, Sabrina co-wrote “Please Please Please” with Jack Antonoff, who has worked on every Swift album since 2014. Bringing Taylor Swift supporters to her fanbase, along with a song written in a style that those fans enjoy, is a pretty reliable recipe for success. The sound and timing of the twangy pop song is another important factor: From Beyoncé’s “Cowboy Carter” to Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song,” country music has been at popular music’s forefront lately.

Lyndsey Havens: Momentum. “Espresso” was like this perfect delectable appetizer that fed fans while also increasing the appetite for more – and “Please” is the whole meal. I do think part of its success needs to be credited to Jack Antonoff, who has such a way in the studio of creating addicting, fiendish melodies that beg repeating – like the glittering opening synths that arrive with a bit of unexpected twang and the little swish and hand claps that occur in between the first and second parts of the chorus. But even more so than the production elements that shine is Sabrina’s delivery, especially on a viral one-liner like, “I beg you, don’t embarrass me motherf–ker.” 

Jason Lipshutz: A combination of three things: newfound interest in Carpenter’s music post-“Espresso,” which has elevated her all the way to arena headliner level already; the pedigree of “Please Please Please,” complete with Jack Antonoff and Amy Allen studio credits and a flashy music video co-starring Carpenter’s romantic partner, Barry Keoghan; and the quality of the song itself, which hoists up Carpenter’s wry sense of humor and whisper-pop bluntness within a shimmery production that flirts with country balladry. It’s a singular song that arrived at the right time, and was presented in a compelling way.

Andrew Unterberger: “Momentum” about sums it up. “Please Please Please” is a fundamentally weird song, shifting keys and modes and tones and even genres throughout its three minutes — it’s fun and it’s compelling and it’s cool but if it wasn’t released by Sabrina Carpenter at this particular moment in time it seems unlikely to me that it would’ve been a big hit. But because Carpenter has pushed all the right buttons for years now and built her audience the right way, they’re more than willing to follow her down some windier paths now. And so a twisty country-pop hybrid like “Please Please Please” can outchart even a no-doubt smash like “Espresso,”” because her fans trusted that it would be worth sticking with, and were rewarded with a song that was sneakily even more addictive than its predecessor.

Christine Werthman: The comedic, bad-boy video with her real-life boyfriend, Barry Keoghan, garnered plenty of attention and has over 36 million views (“Espresso” has accrued nearly twice that many since its April release), but “Please Please Please” has a lot more going for it than just the visual. While “Espresso” was, fittingly, a spunky shot with a TikTok-able lyric (“I’m working late/’Cause I’m a singerrrr”), “Please,” though only a few seconds longer, makes it feel like Carpenter is taking her time.

The Jack Antonoff production adds a dreamier vibe than her other songs, marrying watery synthesizer and electric guitar with tender acoustic guitar and some irresistible background claps. Where “Espresso” maintains the same energy and tempo throughout, “Please” builds with a subtle key change and a sparkly outro, as well as a narrative that gives it that extra tension. While both play to Carpenter’s humorous strengths, “Please” is a more dynamic song overall.  

3. When you think of this breakout period of Carpenter’s a decade from now, which of the two songs do you think will come to mind first?

Christopher Claxton: For me, I think it’ll be “Espresso.” It’s my favorite out of the two, and a song that I think can be played no matter the mood you’re in, since it’s feel-good music — whereas in “Please Please Please,” she’s begging a man not to break her heart, which is less all-purpose.

Lyndsey Havens: “Espresso.” Though “Please” has emerged as the bigger hit, you never forget your first, as they say. Plus, the “I’m working late, ’cause I’m a singer,” line has permeated into popular culture — and clever quips like that can often stick around well beyond the lifespan of the song itself.

Jason Lipshutz: “Espresso” still — I love “Please Please Please,” but Carpenter’s emergence came from a summer-defining powerhouse, full of bubbly personality and quotable lyrics. Maybe “Please Please Please” will stand strong at No. 1 for multiple weeks as “Espresso” slips down the chart, but I think it’s more likely that “Espresso” hangs around the top 10 for multiple extra months, and becomes one of the biggest hits of 2024, even if it never musters its way up to the chart’s very peak. And when we look back at this time many years from now, we’ll be thinking about “that’s that me espresso” and “I’m working late/ ‘cuz I’m a singerrrrr.”

Andrew Unterberger: For all her many great songs already — and likely many more to come — “Espresso” will always be the one that put her on that higher pop plane. It’s not a perfect comparison, but I think of the two songs as somewhat analogous to Ariana Grande’s “Thank U, Next” and “7 Rings” duo; the latter ended up the bigger chart hit, but the former was the enduring moment.

Christine Werthman: I will forever be entertained by the line “Heartbreak is one thing, my ego’s another/I beg you don’t embarrass me, motherf–ker.” Flawless. Also, as I have said to some of my colleagues, that triplet “embarrass” makes it even more interesting and sometimes hard to sing! I vote “Please.” 

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4. As someone who’s made practically every right move to build her status from pop fan favorite to unequivocal superstar over the past two years, is there one particular move or strategy of Carpenter’s that you think other artists and their teams can learn from?

Christopher Claxton: One notable strategy that has contributed to Sabrina Carpenter’s rise to stardom is her consistent and authentic engagement with fans on social media. She uses platforms like Instagram, TikTok, and Twitter, actively sharing behind-the-scenes content, personal stories, and interacting with fans through Q&A sessions. This approach has helped her build a strong, loyal fanbase that feels personally connected to her journey. Other artists can learn from this by prioritizing genuine interactions with their audience to foster increased support and loyalty.

Lyndsey Havens: Persistence – and kindness. Over the years, the two things that I think stand out most about Sabrina as an artist and businesswoman is that she has remained incredibly driven and incredibly humble. She’s had so many nearly-there moments tracing back to her start with Disney to signing with Island to entering into the public discourse for one thing or another, but all the while she kept her head down and kept working. That, to me, is the most admirable and applicable thing of all. 

Jason Lipshutz: Over the course of multiple albums, a label switch, singles that didn’t take off and tours that kept getting bigger, Carpenter kept betting on her eccentricities — the quirks that made her songs, style and stage presence unique, from the self-deprecating lyrical passages on Emails I Can’t Send to her tongue-in-cheek merch to the personalized “Nonsense” outros on tour. Carpenter built a fan base by being herself, and that base was ready to stream and support once she landed on a single, “Espresso,” that was primed for a true mainstream moment. If I were an aspiring artist watching Carpenter’s ascent, I would study the way she amplified what makes her special, unflaggingly, over multiple years and projects.

Andrew Unterberger: Never underestimate the value of a good running bit — especially when you’re really winning to commit to it. The evolving “Nonsense” outros were immeasurably helpful in establishing Carpenter as a pop star worth paying attention to, because they were always good and clever and gave you a reason to keep an eye on any major gig she was playing. Her poking fun of her own miniature size (down to the title of her upcoming album) is another good one, one that makes her relatable and human without actually being too embarrassing or explicitly unglamorous. The songs are the most important thing, of course, but a little reliable and identifiable personality always goes a long way.

Christine Werthman: Take your time. Carpenter released four albums between 2015 and 2019, and then took three years before dropping emails i can’t send in 2022. The jump between Singular: Act II and emails is significant, and it shows that she and her team were willing to let her take the time to establish her cheeky style and playful pop sound.  

5. Make one bold prediction about Carpenter’s upcoming album Short n’ Sweet. (It can be about its commercial performance, a special guest/collaborator, a song subject/theme/sound, anything.)

Christopher Claxton: Based on the way she’s growing as an artist and her popularity in streams, I think at least one more of her songs from ‘Short n’ Sweet’ will be in the top 10. I also think we’ll get a lot more songs that are sonically similar to “Please Please Please.”

Lyndsey Havens: At this point, this is practically a decaf prediction, but the album will debut at No. 1 – and stay put there for a bit. 

Jason Lipshutz: Based on “My ‘give a f–ks’ are on vacation” and “I beg you, don’t embarrass me, motherf–ker,” I guarantee that we are in for some SPECTACULAR swearing!

Andrew Unterberger: She works with Max Martin for the first time on one of the singles, and it surprises absolutely no one by zooming right to No. 1 on the Hot 100.

Christine Werthman: Taylor will pop in. Maybe.

It’s a good week for pop fans on the Billboard 200 albums chart. Charli XCX and Chappell Roan, two of the most acclaimed pop artists of 2024, are both enjoying breakthrough moments on the listing, with their respective most recent albums Brat and The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess.

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In Charli’s case, Brat is the week’s biggest debut, bowing at No. 3 on the 200 — her first appearance in the chart’s top five — with 82,000 first-week units, according to Luminate. Roan, on the other hand, completes a 12-week climb to the top 10 this week, moving 12-9 with her 2023 debut on the strength of an increased profile on social media and streaming (and a recent breakout crossover hit in “Good Luck, Babe!,” which does not appear on the album).

Which of the two artists is having the bigger moment right now? And what, if anything, does it mean that they’re both doing so well at the same time? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. This week, Charli XCX’s Brat debuts at No. 3 on the Billboard 200, while Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess climbs to No. 10 — the former’s first top five album and the latter’s first top 10. Which of the two firsts do you think means more for their respective artists?

Rania Aniftos: That’s tough, because this is so huge for both of them. On one hand, Charli’s been in the game for years, and she’s been so respected in the music industry and beyond that it’s surprising it’s taken this long for her to get the mainstream recognition she deserves. For someone more up-and-coming like Chappell, who is also a queer artist in the space, a top 10 win feels like a particularly special glimpse into the future of pop. 

Hannah Dailey: I’d lean more toward Chappell, as she’s been waiting so, so long for this moment. She was dropped from her label in 2020 and still didn’t give up. It’s got to feel extra sweet to see your project reach such heights four years later.  

Stephen Daw: It’s a pretty close call, but I’m going with Chappell for this one. It is exceedingly rare in 2024 for an album to enter the top 10 of the chart for the first time nine months (!!) after its release, especially without the release of any special editions of the LP. Yet the word-of-mouth surrounding Roan has been working overtime, and her album has been slowly gaining momentum with each passing week. Charli’s top five debut is a big deal, no doubt; but Chappell’s rise feels like a game changer.  

Kyle Denis: While Charli is likely ecstatic to finally achieve this level of pop success on her own terms with her true sound, this moment means more for Chappell. A year ago, virtually nobody was talking about Chappell Roan, now she’s packing out festivals and seeing nine-month-old music surge up the charts. After getting dropped by Atlantic just three years ago, this is the kind of win that truly makes the journey feel worth it. 

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll swerve a little here and say Charli XCX. She had something of a love-hate relationship with mainstream success a decade ago, but she’s seemed increasingly frustrated about mostly being denied access to pop’s inner circle in the decade since. I can only imagine how validating it must feel for her to once again be at the center of everything in the past week and a half — especially because she did it with an album that basically sounds like the most Charli XCX album of her career, not one with any obvious areas of major compromise.

2. Crash first brought Charli to the top 10 two years ago, but Brat feels like a pretty significant step up for her even from that success. What do you think is the primary reason this album is such a mainstream breakthrough for her?

Rania Aniftos: Both the songs and the marketing surrounding the project are reminiscent of the early 2000s, which Gen-Z missed out on but really, really wants to experience. Charli feels like the Myspace star of modern times, and makes the next generation of music listeners feel like they’re logging into AIM in 2006 and setting their profile status to a lyric from Brat. It’s just so cool in every way, and the album dropped at the perfect time within Internet culture. 

Hannah Dailey: The album had such great branding – or lack thereof, really. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more memes about an album coming out than during Brat’s release week. Charli really knew what she was doing with the aggressively simple cover; it got people talking and forced everyone to associate anything lime green with her new music. 

Stephen Daw: The thing that Charli XCX’s fans have pointed out (in most cases, correctly) for years is that she is consistently ahead of her time. But Brat came at a moment when mainstream pop music is finally embracing more of the crunchy alt-pop sounds she’s been swimming in for the last decade, while Charli’s own cult of personality has grown to exponential proportions. It didn’t feel like she was chasing a trend, but rather that the trends had finally caught up to her — and it certainly helps that Brat is simply the best Charli’s music has ever sounded. 

Kyle Denis: The branding for Brat was may more effective than Crash’s. From the neon green album cover to the slightly burry typography, everyone wanted their own spin on the Brat artwork. Brat is also a more authentic representation of Charli’s sound; Crash found her satirizing mainstream pop and her place in it, while Brat finds her finally achieving peace with her position and purpose in the pop ecosystem. It also helps that other pop stars’ cheap facsimiles of her aesthetic are inadvertently reminding the masses of the singularity of Charli’s genius. 

Andrew Unterberger: Brat just kinda nailed it — with the promo, with the branding, with the videos, with everything and most importantly, with the music. I don’t know if I’d say it’s her strongest set of songs, but it’s both her most coherent and her most satisfying, and it’s certainly on its way to being her best-reviewed. It’s just a fun album to have in your (and everyone else’s) life: the memes about the album art, the way its many brain-sticking lyrics keep popping up, the sheer joy everyone seems to associate with it. It’s a really enjoyable pop moment.

3. Meanwhile, Chappell Roan’s momentum for Midwest Princess has been growing for months now. What do you think was the biggest factor in finally putting her over the top as a crossover pop star?

Rania Aniftos: Her live shows. Her songs have always been top tier, but seeing just how creative she is when it comes to stage presence, style and makeup all while delivering show-stopping vocals, I think that made people truly realize that she’s a pop force to be reckoned with. 

Hannah Dailey: I think her run of concerts and festival shows this year is what really made people start paying attention. There’s something baked into Midwest Princess that makes it an entirely different experience when heard live, from the stunning drag looks she wears onstage to the audience involvement throughout (the “HOT TO GO!” choreography, collectively screaming the spoken moments in songs like “Femininomenon,” etc.). I bet her recent performances are what made the album finally click for a lot of people.  

Stephen Daw: Roan was already a fast-rising star before 2024 started — Midwest Princess ranked high on multiple year-end album lists in 2023, and her fan base was rapidly expanding. But I think two things happened at exactly the right time for the singer: She put out one of the best songs of her career (“Good Luck, Babe!”), and then embarked on a near-constant tour schedule throughout the spring and summer of 2024, both as a headliner and an opener. Combining those two things gave fans a new track to rally around while also introducing her to a sea of new devotees, whether they were at Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts Tour or at one of the many festivals she played this summer. Along with all of the buzz she’d already generated since 2020, and it felt inevitable that Roan would become the name on everyone’s lips this year.

Kyle Denis: Definitely her opening slot on Olivia Rodrigo’s Guts World Tour. Chappell’s music translates incredibly well in live settings and her aesthetic truly crystallizes during her campy live performances. Getting to properly showcase the breadth of her artistic vision in sold-out arenas leading right into festival season was the perfect momentum catalyst for her crossover moment. The music, performance ability and style were always there, she just needed a platform. 

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll second that it’s the coinciding of her most high-profile live gigs with her most accessible and undeniable pop single to date. Her supporting run alongside Olivia Rodrigo and her early-spring festival gigs opened the door for her, and “Good Luck, Babe!” pulled her through it. Now it seems like she’s gonna be here for a good long while.

4. Between the recent success for Chappell, Charli, and even Tinashe (with “Nasty” climbing the Hot 100), it seems like it’s been an unusually successful month or so for critically acclaimed artists with devoted pop fanbases whose chart performance hasn’t always matched their artistic reputations. Do you think it’s meaningful of anything for them to all be flourishing like this at once, or is it just a fluke of timing?

Rania Aniftos: I hope it’s meaningful. The charts for the past few years have generally been a cycle of the same superstars at the summit. While people like Taylor Swift, Drake and Ariana Grande are icons for a reason, it’s nice when people realize there’s more out there in the pop world. I have a feeling people like Charli, Tinashe, Chappell, Reneé Rapp and even Sabrina Carpenter will make people more open to the vast pop landscape that exists.

Hannah Dailey: As the question says, these artists have long had devoted fanbases already. But when it comes to the general public now tuning in for the first time, I think people have been craving something different for a while. Chappell, Charli and Tinashe are each their own singular brand of pop star and have given people something fresh to latch onto. I also think people are starting to outgrow the folksy singer-songwritery vibe that’s been popular the past couple of years, and are ready to embrace dance/pop music again. 

Stephen Daw: I don’t think it’s a fluke — even Sabrina Carpenter, inarguably the breakout superstar of 2024, has been making music for nearly a decade and is just now finding massive mainstream success. In a music industry ecosystem where it’s become harder for new pop singers to break big, it feels like a natural next step for listeners to look back at established performers with intact fan bases and say, “Wait … what about them?”  

Kyle Denis: I think what we’re seeing right now is a direct result of how social media and streaming algorithms have fractured our pre-existing monoculture into infinite silos. We’re no longer in the era of big tentpole pop stars sucking all the air out of the room or top 40 radio dictating who can and cannot be a star. The recent successes of Chappell, Charli and Tinashe speak to the power of building up and nurturing a core cult fanbase while continuing to hone your sound and aesthetic regardless of what the dominant mainstream sound may be. Eventually, the pendulum will swing in your direction, you just need to be prepared when it does.   

Andrew Unterberger: It does feel like there’s a renewed appetite for that sort of dead-center pop we enjoyed at the turn of the 2010s — when Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, Rihanna, Britney Spears and the artist then known as Ke$ha ruled the world — but with more of an auteurist bent to it. It’s a good time for the forward-thinking, heavily individualistic pop artists who perhaps should have flourished more than they did in the intervening years to finally get their propers.

5. Who among the Should-Be-Bigger pop set would you like to see being up next for a moment like this?

Rania Aniftos: Troye Sivan! With songs like “Rush” and “Got Me Started”? It’s a no brainer. 

Hannah Dailey: Gracie Abrams! She’s already closing in on the mark, she just needs one last push that could very well come from her new album Secret of Us and Taylor Swift’s seal of approval. 

Stephen Daw: Rina Sawayama has consistently put out fascinating, boundary-pushing pop music for the last few years — if anybody deserves a chart-based breakthrough, it’s her. 

Kyle Denis: Yes, she had a movie hit No. 1 at the box office this year, but I’m beyond ready for Reneé Rapp to have a true breakout hit single in the near future. 

Andrew Unterberger: Would love nothing more than to see U.K. artist Rachel Chinouriri’s brilliant A Devastating Turn of Events album follow Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess‘ slow-but-steady climb up the 200.

One of the biggest breakout stars of the 2020s has unquestionably been alt-country and Americana singer-songwriter Zach Bryan, who has grown from a word-of-mouth sensation into a chart-topping, arenas-and-stadiums-touring act over the past half-decade — while still maintaining a cult-fanbase-type audience.

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Following last year’s crowning moment of Bryan topping both the Billboard 200 and Billboard Hot 100 in the same week (with his self-titled album and its Kacey Musgraves-featuring lead single “I Remember Everything,” respectively), on May 24 he released the new single “Pink Skies.” This week, the harmonica-laced acoustic number — expected to appear on his upcoming new album — bows at No. 6 on the Hot 100, already the second-highest-charting single of his career, following “Everything.”

What does the debut mean for Bryan’s career? And does the song tell us anything about where Bryan may be headed? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. “Pink Skies” debuts at No. 6 on the Hot 100 this week – already Bryan’s second-highest-peaking hit to date, after last year’s No. 1-bowing Kacey Musgraves duet “I Remember Everything.” Is that debut higher, lower or about where you would’ve expected for it? 

Eric Renner Brown: This placement tracks for me. Bryan is a top-tier star now, and he doesn’t have as much competition in his lane as major pop stars and rappers do in theirs. Plus, “Pink Skies” dropped on a release date without a huge pop album (like Billie Eilish’s the week before) to shoot numerous tracks onto the Hot 100 and crowd other singles out. As he continues to grow in popularity (because I don’t think he’s even close to his ceiling), I think we can expect more strong debuts like this from Bryan.

Kyle Denis: This is about right where I expected. Bryan has steadily grown into a streaming force over the past few years, so a top 10 debut isn’t necessarily surprising. Given the stiff competition in the top 5 right now, a No. 6 debut feels just right. 

Melinda Newman: Higher. There’s always excitement for new music from Bryan (and a seemingly endlessly supply of new tunes coming from him — since May 2022, he’s released two studio albums, two EPs and a live album), but he doesn’t always come in so high. His duet with Maggie Rogers, which came out in 2023 before “I Remember Everything,” peaked at No. 42 on the Hot 100 — and that was after the red-hot success of “Something in the Orange.”

Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a little higher — just because we’re in such a loaded moment for big pop hits that a No. 6 debut right now is maybe more like a No. 2 or No. 3 debut a year ago. Not that such a debut would be exactly shocking for Zach Bryan at this point either, but “Pink Skies” is a pretty melancholy and low-key song compared to Bryan’s biggest hits to date, so I think a Hot 100 debut in the 10s would’ve still been plenty respectable.

Christine Werthman: Definitely higher. “Pink Skies” is about a homecoming brought on by a funeral, and it encapsulates the perspectives of those lost and those left behind. It’s a buoyant, midtempo, acoustic song that packs a lot of feeling into three minutes without being weighed down. With such a universal theme — nothing is certain except death and taxes, as they say — perhaps it connected with hordes of listeners and offered a gentle alternative to the more amped-up summer songs. 

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2. Is the song’s top 10 debut more about “Pink Skies” being a specifically good commercial fit for Bryan, or do you think he’s reached the star level where just about any new single of his is going to automatically debut in that region? 

Eric Renner Brown: I mean this only positively: It sounds like a Zach Bryan song! Maybe the true heads hear something different in “Pink Skies” compared to his other hits. But for casual fans like myself, it’s more of what I’ve come to expect from Bryan: polished, well-produced folk-rock, delivered with a bit more passion and personality than others in his lane.

Kyle Denis: Probably a mixture of both. He’s reached that level of stardom where he’ll automatically get lofty debuts for new releases, but the song is also very strong. “Pink Skies” is in line with the kind of emotional, confessional mid-tempos that have brought him past commercial wins (“I Remember Everything”; “Something in the Orange”), but the heavy subject matter will probably kneecap how far this song can go now that the summer is here.  

Melinda Newman: It’s still impressive for him. There is still a lot of growth to be had for Bryan in terms of artist discovery: His fans are extremely passionate and help drive the high debuts, but there are so many potential fans who still have no idea who he is or couldn’t name one of his songs. As those numbers increase, a top 10 debut for each new song may soon become automatic. But he’s not there yet.  

Andrew Unterberger: It’s mostly about the timing and star power — the song is a pretty good commercial fit for Bryan, but it takes a few listens to totally succumb to its charms. (Then again, evidence suggests that “a few listens” is not too daunting a bar for audiences when it comes to Zach Bryan right now, so maybe that’s part and parcel with the song’s early success.)

Christine Werthman: This is still just Bryan’s third top 10 hit, so it’s not like everything he drops automatically races to the front of the class. I think it’s a good commercial fit for him as an artist with an eye for lyrical detail who can tease out the beautiful parts of a loss.  

3. “Pink Skies” is presumed to likely be featured on Bryan’s upcoming album, apparently titled The Great American Bar Scene and due sometime soon. If that’s all true, do you think “Skies” tells us anything interesting about Bryan’s new work, or is it more a consolidation of established strengths? 

Eric Renner Brown:  It’s a consolidation of his strengths. I think he could mildly iterate his style for at least a couple more albums while continuing to enjoy (and expand on) his current success. Bryan’s fans aren’t looking for a reinvention – yet, at least – and when it comes to this style, he has plenty of great songs left in him. (That said, I do dig the Neil-Young-circa-Harvest harmonica here.)

Kyle Denis: As of right now, I’m not getting much of anything new or different from “Pink Skies.” If anything, his songwriter has gotten even sharper. “Pink Skies” is a gorgeous elegy, one that truly transports the listener to the funeral scene he conjures in his lyrics. In that way, “Pink Skies” does feel like it’s one part of a larger narrative – maybe the prelude? — that will unfold across his new LP. 

Melinda Newman: Too early to tell, but the twist that he’s talking to someone who has died is an interesting turn. Bryan doesn’t shy away from deep emotions and heavy thoughts in his songs — so, without hearing more, it’s hard to tell if the new album is a progression or a concept album or more of the same high quality we’ve already been getting from Bryan. He clearly is not running out of things to say.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s Zach Bryan doing what he does best: vivid and relatable storytelling over heartstring-pulling melodies and dusty, unpolished instrumentation. No great leap forward here, but still one of the best songs on the Hot 100 this week.

Christine Werthman: “Pink Skies” fits into Bryan’s portfolio of somber, detailed songs that prove that when he sang, “I remember everything,” he wasn’t kidding. The difference is the lighter touch he takes with “Pink Skies,” closer to “Holy Roller” than “East Side of Sorrow.” He’s not reinventing himself, but if “Pink Skies” is an indicator, maybe we will see a softer side of Bryan, particularly in his instrumentation, on his next album.  

4. Bryan is at the stage of his stardom right now where he feels more like the world’s biggest cult artist than a traditional pop superstar. Do you think he has anything to gain by trying to cross over to become more of the latter, or if you were him would you focus more on not fixing what isn’t broken?

Eric Renner Brown: Bryan isn’t a pop superstar only insofar as he doesn’t make capital-P pop music and hasn’t yet achieved the celebrity of many of his Hot 100 peers. But otherwise, he’s had three top 10 hits on the Hot 100 in less than two years and sells out multiple arena dates in many markets – he’s a superstar. (As a Phish fan – and in solidarity with superfans of enduring arena-level bands like Slipknot and Tool – I think there are acts who can more credibly be described as “the world’s biggest cult artist.”) If I was Bryan, I would indeed heed the cliché: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Kyle Denis: He should keep doing what he’s doing and not even look at traditional pop superstardom. If his X outburst over “Pink Skies” allegedly being sent to top 40 radio is anything to go by, I don’t think he would particularly enjoy that space anyways. With sold out arenas, multiplatinum singles, Grammy wins and Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 hits, he’s already secured the most sought-after hallmarks of pop stardom without explicitly courting it, so why fix what isn’t broken? 

Melinda Newman: Bryan is doing just fine doing it his way. He doesn’t appear on television — other than Yellowstone, he’s done no late night or morning show performances. Other than the New York Times and Joe Rogan, he hasn’t done interviews. He keeps it to the music, the live shows and his direct interaction with his fans via social media. He’s already selling out arenas and stadiums. I’m not sure how much bigger it could get for him, but he doesn’t need any of the trappings and the headaches that come with trying to be a traditional pop superstar. “Pink Skies” debuted so high because of its 31.6 million U.S. streams, according to Luminate; his radio reach was relatively small, so it’s his direct line to his fans that is propelling him, not the gatekeepers deciding they are going to let him in.

Andrew Unterberger: There’s no real need for a Zach Bryan pop crossover, of course — but selfishly, I’d still like to see him try for one at some point. To invoke an album that just so happens to be turning 40 today: Bruce Springsteen didn’t need to go mega-pop and release a Diamond-certified blockbuster with seven certified Hot 100 top 10 hits on it, either — but both his catalog and legacy are immeasurably richer for him doing so (not to mention his bottom line). Aren’t you the least bit curious to know what Zach Bryan’s Born in the U.S.A. might sound or feel like?

Christine Werthman: Bryan’s success is a testament to doing it his way. If that means staying in his current lane, cool. If it means mining for hits, doing more interviews and getting a taste of that pop life, go for it. Do what you want, man! That’s brought him to where he is, so he should keep following his instincts. 

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5. What’s your favorite “Pink” jam from pop, rock or country history?

Eric Renner Brown: This prompt sent me down a rabbit hole of the surprisingly fertile category of “songs with ‘pink’ in their title.” Stiff competition, but as a lifelong Weezer fan, I have to go with “Pink Triangle” – which gets bonus points for appearing on an album with “Pink” in its title. (Runner-up: Nick Drake’s “Pink Moon,” from the album of the same name, which Bryan could kill a cover of.)

Kyle Denis: In terms of the rock-country space, I’ll go with “Pink Houses” by John Cougar Mellencamp. But I’m also very partial to Frank Ocean’s “Pink + White” and “Pink Matter” (with André 3000). 

Melinda Newman: “Pink Cadillac” by Bruce Springsteen. Natalie Cole had the pop hit with the tune, taking her sassy, sleek cover version to No. 5 on the Hot 100 in 1988, but Springsteen’s version, which was a B-side to 1984’s “Dancing in the Dark,” stresses the carnal desire inherent in the song, making it a much sexier ride. In second place, Eric Church’s “Two Pink Lines,” which can be the result if you have a party in the back of that pink Cadillac.

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say the Psychedelic Furs’ new wave classic “Pretty in Pink” — and I’ll infuriate whatever new wave purists happen to be reading this column about 2024’s biggest Americana artist by admitting that I actually prefer the sax-laden ’86 re-recording from the Brat Pack movie of the same name.

Christine Werthman: “Pink Triangle” from Weezer’s Pinkerton. Or “Pynk” from Janelle Monae feat. Grimes. Wait, no. Chappell Roan’s “Pink Pony Club.” Wow, so many good pink songs. Happy Pride, everyone!

Even at the end of a fairly absurd three-month rush of new releases from A-listers and breakout hits from up-and-comers, Billie Eilish‘s third album Hit Me Hard and Soft has managed to make a real impact. The album moves 339,000 units in its first week of release — over 100,000 more than 2021’s Happier Than Ever — while also charting all 10 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100 dated June 1, led by the No. 5-bowing “Lunch,” the highest-debuting song of her career.

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It’s still only good for the No. 2 spot on the Billboard 200, however, as Taylor Swift reigns there for a fifth week with her The Tortured Poets Department blockbuster. The chart race between the two pop superstars got a good deal of attention from fans last week, particularly as both artists continued to release new editions of their respective albums throughout the tracking week, boosting their overall numbers in the process.

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Does the first-week performance still represent a success for Eilish, even without the No. 1? And which A-lister could be next with a big release now that the calendar finally looks a little less crowded for a bit? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Billie Eilish debuts at No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with Hit Me Hard and Soft — her first album not to enter at No. 1, but with the best first-week number of her career (339,000). On a scale from 1-10, how pleased do you think Eilish and her team should be with this first-week performance?

Katie Atkinson: I’m thinking a 5. Sure, she had the best first-week numbers of her career, but it has to sting to not to debut at No. 1 after her two previous chart-toppers. Both of those albums (Happier Than Ever and When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?) ended up spending three weeks atop the Billboard 200, so it remains to be seen whether Hit Me Hard and Soft could eventually reach the pinnacle, which might soften the blow of this No. 2 start.

Hannah Dailey: I would say 9! Those numbers are great. If you’ve already topped your own biggest-week benchmarks and are cruising in at an impressive No. 2, the desire to have had a perfect No. 1 is really just an optics issue at this point. She should be really proud. 

Lyndsey Havens: 9. Billie’s first-week numbers helped make history when Hit Me along with Taylor Swift’s Tortured Poets led to the first time in eight years that two albums surpassed 300,000 units in the same tracking week. That’s no small feat. And while of course scoring a third consecutive No. 1 on the chart would have been nice for Eilish – and had it not been for those few extra variants from Swift, quite possible, too – the numbers alone seem to hold more weight. To have that significant of an influence today – and with a third album for which there were no previously-released singles – should make team Eilish incredibly proud.

Meghan Mahar: 8. Happier Than Ever debuted with 238,000 units, so this means Eilish saw a 49% increase in sales — a clear testament to her staying power as an artist. The growth clearly demonstrates that Eilish’s consistent delivery and constant development as an artist has visibly paid off — and as much as a No. 1 would further validate this, I don’t think it’s necessary. There are artists who have undeniable impact on music and culture for years who have rarely cracked the No. 1 spot, like Lana Del Rey, who also likely wouldn’t break through in the aftermath of a Taylor Swift release. I think the No. 1 would have been nice to have — but it leaves more to be desired in the future.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s about an 8. That 339,000 number is jaw-dropping — bigger even than When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go, whose release was about as big a moment as we’ve seen from a (non-Swift) pop star in the past five years or so. But Eilish certainly seemed motivated to gun for the No. 1 spot, so the fact that she fell just short there does knock her down a couple points. Still a triumphant week for her, no doubt.

2. The 339,000 first-week number is even more notable due to the fact that Eilish’s album includes only 10 tracks — a relatively scant number for the streaming age — and featured no advance single releases. Do you think this strategy is one other artists should be taking note of, or is it one that just worked better for Eilish than it likely would for most of her peers?

Katie Atkinson: I hope these shorter album run-times are a trend; Ariana Grande and Dua Lipa both kept things relatively brisk over the past couple of months as well, with 13 tracks (35 minutes) for Eternal Sunshine and 11 tracks (36 minutes) for Radical Optimism. Grande also took the “less is more” approach to advance singles, dropping only “Yes, And?” ahead of release week. The one way Eilish and Swift’s latest albums coincide is not in album length, of course, but in that both kept every song and video under wraps until release day. I think we’re going to see more and more of that from A-list artists, because they don’t need the promotion a lead single has historically provided. The fact that they’re releasing new music is promotion enough — so why not get every drop of sales and streams out of release week?

Hannah Dailey: I really feel like the jury is still out on this one. On the one hand, it also worked for Ariana Grande’s Eternal Sunshine, which topped the Billboard 200 for two weeks at just 35 minutes long. Then again, Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter and Taylor Swift’s Tortured Poets each ruled the chart for multiple weeks (the latter of which is still doing so, obviously) and both clocked in at 1-2 hours. It might be more of a question of knowing what your specific fanbase favors and tailoring your approach to that preference. 

Lyndsey Havens: It’s an incredibly badass move that, in my opinion, few can pull off. To head into a rollout cycle with so much confidence – knowing that the album you made is so perfect, so concise and so well formatted – that you don’t need to release anything prior is a trust that Eilish and Finneas have earned from their respective and joint fanbases. And while they did of course tease the album – most notably at a Boiler Room-style set during Coachella – the fact that such breadcrumbs were enough to sustain fans’ appetites is surely a strategy worth taking note of. But only for the few artists who can do the same.

Meghan Mahar: I think the length of Hit Me Hard and Soft is a mindful choice not only for Eilish and her team, but for her fans. The fans are treated to a quality body of work that they can slowly digest — instead of “claiming” a track, listeners can enjoy the package deal. Eilish can tour this album, perform most (if not all) of the tracks live, and still have plenty of room for selects from elsewhere in her discography. Above all, what I find most compelling in the streaming landscape is that the brevity of this project likely implies more music went unreleased — perhaps this is a long-term strategy to shorten Eilish’s release cycles as fans continue to beg for new music. There is a strong case for this approach for artists with rabid, loyal fanbases like Eilish’s — and likely why shorter cycles work for artists in K-pop and similar genres.

Andrew Unterberger: I think when you compare the relatively truncated rollouts for Hit Me and Eternal Sunshine with a more traditional extended unveiling like the one Dua Lipa had for Training Season, it’s kinda undeniable that the former strategy is proving more effective for 2024. Of course this only really matters when you’re at the arena-touring level these three A-listers have long been at — since they’re the only ones who can really afford to eschew promotion and still ensure attention for new projects — but for artists who have been established at that tier, going the all- or mostly-all-at-once route seems the smart path these days.

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3. “Lunch” is the best-performing song from the set so far, debuting at No. 5 on the Hot 100. Do you think it will go onto be the breakout hit from this album — or do you see another song on the tracklist ultimately passing it for those honors?

Katie Atkinson: I think “Lunch” will remain my favorite from the album, but the other song that has been sticking with me is “Chihiro.” It has such a great vibe that I could see it having life beyond release week. Finneas deserves love for the production on this album overall, and I think “Chihiro” might be his finest work.

Hannah Dailey: The other two contenders for the album’s breakout hit are definitely “Chihiro” — which surprises me, only because it feels more like a cool soundscape than a traditionally structured song, but people are obsessed with it – and “Birds of a Feather.” “Lunch” is a great song, but something tells me one of those other two will have more longevity. 

Lyndsey Havens: I think given the way in which this album was promoted, “Lunch” benefitted the most from being teased during Coachella and online after the fact. Plus, it’s the most lyrically splashy song on the album, as Eilish dances around the subject of oral sex. Plus-plus, as is true of every other song on the album, the production is killer. So while it makes sense that this would be the initial hit off the project, I think there are some slow-burns like “Birds of Feather” or “Blue” that could take off. But then again “The Greatest” has that incredible build, and of course “Chihiro” is an unexpected trip and… suddenly, it’s incredibly obvious why there were no prior singles. How could they choose?

Meghan Mahar: I have a strong feeling that “Lunch” will be the biggest breakout hit from this album, but I have high hopes for “Birds of a Feather.” It’s a well-written pop song, and its ‘80s-inspired production is on the nose for the current wave of nostalgic sounds fans are gravitating toward. I could see this doing well in radio and being well-received by both Eilish’s younger fans and their parents. This has been a successful formula for other superstars like The Weeknd, so I can see Eilish pulling this off without a hitch.

Andrew Unterberger: “Lunch” seems like the one for me, but “Birds of a Feather” is showing impressive strength on streaming (and is also great). It might come down to which of the two radio embraces; “Lunch” feels like the easier fit on the airwaves between “Million Dollar Baby” and “Espresso,” but can a song with a relatively un-radio-editable “I could eat that girl for lunch” hook really be accepted by top 40? Will be interesting to see, certainly.

4. With Hit Me Hard and Soft providing the most formidable challenger yet to Taylor Swift’s now-five-week run at No. 1 with Tortured Poets Department, both artists released a number of new editions of their respective new albums throughout the tracking week — in a manner that was interpreted by many fans and onlookers as both artists specifically pushing to stay ahead of the other one. Would you have any issues with Swift and Eilish pressing for the No. 1 in this manner, or is it all in the spirit of healthy competition on the charts?

Katie Atkinson: This is hardly the first example of artists gunning for No. 1, but it might be the most high-profile and the most transparent. I’m always going to stump for healthy competition on the charts, since it means that Billboard’s charts matter that much to artists and fans. So put me down for a front-row seat to the chart Olympics.

Hannah Dailey: I don’t feel too strongly about this either way, but if I was going to take a stance, it would be that the one-upping is a little grating. I believe that the charts’ purpose is to represent and document which music is the biggest in the country/world each week, not just whose fanbase is willing to buy the most versions of an album — which is exactly what those actions end up reducing it to after a certain point.  

Lyndsey Havens: Look, however an artist wants to promote their album is fine by me, assuming it’s all part of the grander creative vision for how their art can be consumed and enjoyed. And I’m all for healthy competition – but not when it comes at the literal expense of the fans. We will likely never know the real reason why these new editions arrived when they did or what the real reasoning for them was, but all I do know was that it did have a healthy result for the industry in the end. The fact that an eight-year drought of albums surpassing 300,000 units in the same week has been broken by two unbelievably talented women is a win enough for me.

Meghan Mahar: As a big fan of both Eilish and Swift, this back and forth was painful to watch. I think the way each artist pressed for the spot is all in the spirit of the game and shows good sportsmanship — I just hate to see two brilliant women pitted against each other, when team Eilish likely would have been employing the same strategies whether it was Swift in the No. 1 spot or another unbeatable chart titan like Drake. And generally, as a consumer, I am experiencing variant fatigue. I know that releasing multiple versions of albums with different tracks is primarily geared toward the superfans who are eager to support their favorite artists, but when there’s a massive wave of pop album releases, tours, etc. and everything is getting more expensive, it feels somewhat exploitative.

Andrew Unterberger: The practice in itself isn’t necessarily gauche — and we of course all love a chart race with a little extra sauce to it — but the degree of it is certainly beginning to border on the excessive, and I don’t blame the fans who are starting to voice their irritation with it. Maybe we just need to install some sort of baseball-style “unwritten rules” system of best practices when it comes to pop star album variant releases, that all the biggest artists sorta silently agree to abide by except for in extreme situations. Otherwise the arms race may never end, and it’s the biggest fans who will suffer for it.

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5. After a jam-packed late-winter and spring of new albums from A-list pop stars, it appears that we may now finally have at least a couple weeks before the next one is scheduled. Who’s a major artist rumored (or just kinda past due) for a major release this summer who you think might also be geared for a debut on Hit Me’s level?

Katie Atkinson: This feels like cheating since she already nodded to it, but I’m very ready for the next Lady Gaga album. At the end of her Chromatica Ball film, which premiered over the weekend, she flashed the words “LG7. Gaga returns.” Is it too much to hope that she’ll return sooner than later? It feels like her upcoming role as Harley Quinn in Joker: Folie a Deux could have pushed her into some of the weirder, darker pop spaces where she thrives. Ariana gifted us with a pre-Wicked album; could Gaga drop this summer ahead of the sequel’s Oct. 4 release date?

Hannah Dailey: I would be floored to see a Katy Perry renaissance this year. But my money is on Chappell Roan releasing an album that makes all of the momentum she’s built this past year finally boil over and explode, earning her the title of mainstream superstar at last. 

Lyndsey Havens: L A DY G A G A. I think it’s safe to say we are all waiting patiently for the pop diva’s return – and while it feels like it can’t come soon enough, greatness can’t be rushed. And let’s not forget about that long-awaited Post Malone country album… given the numbers of its likely lead single with Morgan Wallen, “I Had Some Help,” and taking into account the many chart records Wallen holds himself, that could be the next album to thrive atop the Billboard 200 for several weeks upon its release. 

Meghan Mahar: There aren’t a lot of artists who can debut at or above Eilish’s level but I’m hoping Harry Styles releases a new album this year. If he follows his rollout schedule of releasing an album every two years, he’s due for a drop. I’ve seen rumors that he is going to put out new music in Q3 and he was spotted going to a studio in London in March. Fingers crossed.

Andrew Unterberger: A new Zach Bryan album is reportedly due in June — and if you thought his self-titled album got a big reception when that dropped last August, just wait till you see what he does with a new LP now that he’s scored a Hot 100-topping smash, embarked upon a major arenas-and-stadiums tour, and generally seen his brand of rootsy alt-country become one of the dominant strains of popular music.

It’s been some kind of 2024 for Post Malone. Nabbing a spot on the guest list for Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter album (on the top 20 Billboard Hot 100 hit “Levii’s Jeans”) in March would be year-defining accomplishment enough for 99% of artists, but he followed that up just a month later with an appearance on “Fortnight,” Hot 100-topping lead single for Taylor Swift’s blockbuster The Tortured Poets Department album.

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And now, he’s got a third mega-collab that looks to be on its way to being his biggest yet: “I Had Some Help,” recorded with country superstar Morgan Wallen, debuts atop the Hot 100 this week with absurd first-week numbers in streams, sales and radio play — instantly leaping to the front of a historically crowded field on this week’s loaded chart. This time, Post does it as the lead artist, as “Help” is set to be the advance single from his upcoming album, hyped as the hybrid hitmaker’s full pivot to country music.

Does “Help” automatically make Country Post a successful endeavor? And will “I Had Some Help” buck current Hot 100 trends by holding atop the chart for some time to come? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Despite arriving at one of the most competitive moments in recent pop history — including a culture-swallowing Drake-Kendrick Lamar feud, massive viral hits from Sabrina Carpenter, Shaboozey and Tommy Richman, and even a record-setting Taylor Swift album (whose lead single Post himself assisted on) — “I Had Some Help” debuts at No. 1 this week. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you that the song was able to immediately power its way to the top of such a loaded Hot 100?

Kyle Denis: 2. Sure, Posty entered 2024 on a bit of a commercial decline – but this is the artist with the most RIAA Diamond singles in history we’re talking about here! You team him up with Wallen, the voice behind 2023 Year-End Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 single “Last Night,” and you’re guaranteed an instant smash. Of course, there are a few other elements that made the timing right. Country music is probably the buzziest mainstream genre right now, they debuted the song live at Stagecoach 2024 and Posty is coming off a pair of blockbuster collabs with the two defining pop stars of our time: Beyoncé and Taylor Swift. 

Lyndsey Havens: Is “0” an option? Even if the song wasn’t such a smash, given the collaborators alone, this song was always going to come out swinging. Both Wallen and Posty are quite comfortable atop the Billboard charts – and seem to climb there time and time again with ease. And while the Hot 100’s upper echelon has been especially fun lately, and welcoming of newcomers, when you put two veteran hitmakers together on an undeniably catchy country-pop song amid a hot streak for the former genre, it’s a recipe for chart-topping success. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 3. Sure, it’s a crowded moment near the top of the Hot 100, but Morgan Wallen had proven to possess the star power to slice through any chart competition thrown his way — after all, 2023 was a busy year in pop, and he owned the longest-leading album (One Thing at a Time) and No. 1 hit (“Last Night”) on the Billboard 200 and Hot 100, respectively. Considering the added juice of a Post Malone collaboration, and the summer-friendly, anthemic vibe of “I Had Some Help,” it’s not shocking that the song debuted atop the Hot 100, regardless of what else might have blocked its path.

Jessica Nicholson: 5. “I Had Some Help” arrives with the combined star power of Post Malone and Wallen (whose albums have been entrenched at the upper ranks of the Billboard 200 over the past three years). Also, the song has not only massive streaming numbers, but solid radio support — becoming the first song to reach the top 10 on the Country Airplay chart in two or fewer weeks since Garth Brooks with “More Than a Memory” in 2007. Plus, the song released in a sweet spot just weeks following the release of Taylor’s blockbuster album and the surge of many of those viral hits (Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and Carpenter’s “Espresso” have been on the Hot 100 for five weeks, and Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” for three weeks), further opening a window for “I Had Some Help” to dominate. 

Andrew Unterberger: Let’s say a 4. At this time a couple years ago, it would’ve been a 0, obviously — but at this point of 2024, things are crowded enough and Post had cooled off enough commercially (at least as a lead artist) that I didn’t think it was a given that this (or any song really) would just sail in to No. 1 on the Hot 100. But it obviously sounded like a hit, and people have obviously responded to it like a hit, so can’t really say it’s that surprising, even with the larger context.

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2. Despite Post Malone being the lead artist on the song, it takes place on featured artist Morgan Wallen’s sonic home turf. Which one of the two do you think the song belongs to more — and which do you think its immediate success is more meaningful for? 

Kyle Denis: “I Had Some Help” is definitely country, but, melodically, it’s a pretty natural progression from Posty’s pop-rock bangers like “Circles” and “Chemical.” I also think the track’s immediate success is more meaningful for Post Malone. Last year, Wallen took “Last Night” to the top five of Pop Airplay without a remix or a guest artist, signaling the completion of his redemption arc after his 2021 N-word slur controversy. With a Year-End No. 1 single and sold-out stadiums to his name, Wallen has already proven his pop bonafides, but Malone hasn’t done the same for his country chops yet. The success of “Help” is a very good sign for his forthcoming country album and his future on the notoriously insular format. 

Lyndsey Havens: I’ve been wondering this myself, and think part of why it’s succeeding is because it’s a bit unclear. Morgan welcomed Post onstage during his headlining Stagecoach set to debut the song – yet Post’s Stagecoach merch, a single t-shirt, read, “‘I Had Some Help’ is a song featuring Morgan Wallen on Post Malone’s new album.” And during last week’s Academy of Country Music Awards, Post performed the song solo, and it landed just as well. I think the fact that it doesn’t really seem to matter who the song belongs to is the secret sauce here – the fact that both artists have seen a spike in consumption of their back catalogs seems to be further proof.

Plus, the fact that both Wallen and Post have something to gain is worth remembering; for Wallen, a co-sign from a mostly universally beloved artist such as Post Malone can only help public opinion, while for Post, a co-sign from country’s top reigning artist today can only help the community rally around his entry into the genre even more. All of which is to say, I think the success of this song is equally meaningful for both artists, and their respective fanbases. 

Jason Lipshutz: Although Post Malone dominates the opening verse and chorus, “I Had Some Help” belongs to Wallen, both in terms of the country production as well as the adoption of his persona. The song may be more uptempo than Wallen’s past smashes, but the arrangement is right in his wheelhouse, and the post-breakup messiness of the lyrics is a topic he’s ruminated on quite a bit over the course of his career. “I Had Some Help” contains an edgy bitterness atypical of a festival-ready singalong, but Wallen sells the sourness, and ropes in Posty for moral support.  

Jessica Nicholson: Sonically, this feels like it belongs to Wallen, as it is right in his wheelhouse, and counts some of Wallen’s mainstay country writers in the song’s credits. The song’s success has more meaning for Posty, as this marks his official foray into the country genre, with a cosign from a stadium-level performer in Wallen — which is an asset in a genre that has historically often been wary of pop “outsiders” crossing into the country lane.

Andrew Unterberger: To be honest, I often have to remind myself that this isn’t just a Morgan Wallen song. Which isn’t to say that it doesn’t feel like a Post song too, or that his contributions are negligible, but this song is so firmly in the sonic lane that Wallen established with the title tracks of his Dangerous and One Thing at a Time albums — my favorite songs on their respective albums, worth saying — that “Help” just feels to me like him finishing the trilogy. But it’s obviously a bigger boost to Post: Wallen can do no wrong commercially at the moment, but Post really kinda needed the help for a “Help”-sized hit.

3. “Help” represents the first release in Post Malone’s long-buzzed-about pivot to country music. Do you think a smash like “I Had Some Help” already pre-certifies his musical transition as a successful one, or do you think we still have to wait for the full album is out to say for sure? 

Kyle Denis: I don’t think “Help” pre-certifies anything. Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em” made country radio history, but she’s yet to launch another successful country hit off Cowboy Carter that lasted beyond the release week rush. “Help” could very well become the 2024 song of the summer, but that doesn’t automatically mean the album will be a smash as well. I say we wait and see, but my gut (and brain) tells me that Posty is already in a much better position than Queen Bey. 

Lyndsey Havens: I’m biased on this one, since I’ve been saying this transition would be as smooth as Raising Cane’s special sauce since Post uploaded an acoustic cover of Bob Dylan’s “Don’t Think Twice, It’s All Right” to YouTube 10 years ago. While I never doubted the sonic shift would land, I do think debuting with a global smash that features a star like Wallen will surely help his forthcoming album arrive as a success.

Jason Lipshutz: As big as “Help” already is, we’ll see just how successful a Post Malone country album proves to be. Although he’s had a splashy year as a collaborator, we’re less than a year removed from a solo album, Austin, that took some bold sonic chances but underperformed commercially. Wallen’s co-sign will help engrain Posty to mainstream country listeners, though, so if he wants to really nail this pivot from a charts perspective, let’s hope the project is ready to get rolling soon, while “Help” is still putting up huge streaming and radio numbers.

Jessica Nicholson: Texas native Post Malone has already earned co-signs in the country space by performing with Brad Paisley, Sara Evans and Dwight Yoakam at Stagecoach — and teaming with one of country music’s most successful current artists in Wallen certainly doesn’t hurt. The song has reached an essential milestone of being accepted by country radio, ranking at No. 9 on the Country Airplay chart, in just a handful of weeks on the chart. Post Malone’s ACM Awards performance included a preview of new music that sounded very influenced by traditional country sounds. It’s clear that he’s been accepted by his fellow artists, but also by the fans — if the time he spent shaking hands with fans at Stagecoach (and making that personal connection which is still important in the country genre) is any indication. Taken together, it is an auspicious start; still, to fully cement his success in the country genre, it would be great to see him have a solo country hit. So we’ll have to wait and see.

Andrew Unterberger: Having his biggest hit since (at least) “Circles” is obviously a huge win for Posty and his new album regardless, but I don’t think it’s necessarily a guarantee that the rest of the set will be so well-received. “Help” is exceptional and Wallen is a cheat code, but the other, more ballad-y song that Post debuted at the ACM Awards last week I didn’t find so convincing on first listen. And while “Help” may end up being bigger than any single from Cowboy Carter, that album set a bar for artistic quality and coherence from this year’s country-crossover aspirants that won’t be easily neared, let alone cleared.

4. We’ve seen a lot of turnover at the top of the Hot 100 recently — five songs across the last six weeks. With its staggering opening numbers and rapidly expanding radio presence, do you think “I Had Some Help” will finally be the song to stabilize the top spot in more of a long-term sense? 

Kyle Denis: In a year like 2024, I’m going to say no. Maybe Kendrick Lamar and Drake reignite their beef, maybe a new musical war commences, maybe Billie Eilish’s “Lunch” grows even bigger, maybe Zach Bryan’s upcoming single really takes off, maybe Beyoncé drops Act III or maybe another song comes out of nowhere with monster streams à la Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby.” 

“I Had Some Help” definitely has the potential – and arguably the best chances – to stabilize the top spot, but I won’t put my money on it quite yet. Let’s see if it can at least match the three weeks of Future & Metro Boomin’s Lamar-assisted “Like That” first — or the four weeks of Jack Harlow’s “Lovin On Me.” 

Lyndsey Havens: Not really – and I sort of hope it doesn’t. As much as I love “Help,” I’ve been loving the welcoming attitude of the Hot 100’s top 10 lately and am excited to see it continue. And on the heels of a new album from Billie Eilish – and hey, there could even be more surprises from Taylor ahead – I think at the very least pop’s biggest stars will continue to shake up the chart. And at the same time, newcomers to the summit like Carpenter and Shaboozey got there because their respective hits – “Espresso” and “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” – are so undeniably and sickeningly catchy. Heading into the summer months, it’s surprise viral smashes like those that often seem to sustain.

Jason Lipshutz: In a vacuum, I’d say that “Help” has a great chance of spending multiple weeks at No. 1, especially as country radio kicks in and boosts its chart points… but it really is a VERY crowded time in the top 10. We have a trio of hits — Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso,” Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — that haven’t reached No. 1 yet but very well could in the coming weeks, while Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” is still earning gargantuan streaming numbers and could return to the top spot at any time. Plus, Billie Eilish’s album is performing very well out of the gate! If I had to bet, I’d say “Help” notches a few more weeks at No. 1 in the coming months, but it’s not a lock like it may have been had it bowed at a different time.

Jessica Nicholson: Posty’s collaboration with Taylor Swift spent two weeks atop the Hot 100, and now he’s teamed with one of country music’s current biggest-selling artists. Plus, the song is catchy, with the kind of singalong vibe that seems perfect as a summer soundtrack and has solid radio engagement. So, it’s very likely this could be a multi-week chart-topper.

Andrew Unterberger: I feel silly saying this, because I’ve been wrong in predicting multiple other big songs this year ending up long-lasting No. 1s, when they each ultimately topped out at a few weeks at most. But here we go again: Given the lead “Help” already has at radio over much of its competition — after not even two full weeks! — and given how strongly it’s still streaming and selling, I just can’t see anything currently on the chart getting past it anytime soon without another major boost. Maybe Shaboozey gets J-Kwon for an unstoppably charming “Bar Song” remix in the next week and makes me look stupid (again), but just going on the evidence we currently have, I gotta play the percentages and say this thing is gonna be No. 1 for a good long time.

5. If you were looking to put together a dream year of collaborations with the biggest recording artists in music, knocking off team-ups with Beyoncé, Taylor Swift and now Morgan Wallen would be a pretty damn good start. If you were Post Malone essentially looking for the clean sweep, who would you get for your fourth superstar collaborator this year? 

Kyle Denis: I mean, he’s gotta pick a side between Kendrick and Drake. It’s only right!

Lyndsey Havens: If it’s a clean sweep we want, I’d say he and Ari should get in the studio stat. As she continues to promote her Eternal Sunshine album, a remix or bonus track featuring Posty could come as a pleasant chart-topping surprise; and for any naysayers, I doubt many could envision how he would sound alongside Beyoncé or Swift before those hits arrived, either. But if we’re less concerned with another No. 1, I’d suggest a collab with Kacey Musgraves or Maggie Rogers. Both artists are masters of the country-folk-pop seesaw and could be better suited to help usher Post into his new era.

Jason Lipshutz: Simple: team up with Kendrick Lamar for a post-Drake victory lap single. “I Hate You (An Angrier Song),” anyone? 

Jessica Nicholson: Zach Bryan or SZA would rank high on a list of potential superstar collaborators.

Andrew Unterberger: Let’s go historical and say Paul McCartney. Macca and Posty! Both the cuteness and the hooks would be overwhelming.

As Taylor Swift rules the Billboard Hot 100 for a second frame with her Post Malone collab “Fortnight” — and before an onslaught of tracks resulting from the culture-dominating Kendrick Lamar/Drake feud likely swarms the top tier of the chart next week — a trio of newer hitmakers move into the chart’s top five.

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This week’s Hot 100 (dated May 11) features a debut from Virginia singer-rapper Tommy Richman at No. 2 (“Million Dollar Baby”), along with a rapidly rising breakout smash from country singer-songwriter Shaboozey at No. 3 (“A Bar Song (Tipsy)”) and the biggest crossover hit yet for burgeoning pop star Sabrina Carpenter at No. 4 (“Espresso”). Along with enduring top 10 hits from newly minted hitmakers Benson Boone (“Beautiful Things,” No. 5) and Teddy Swims (“Lose Control”), this week marks the highest concentration of first-timers in the chart’s top 10 since June 2022.

Which one is most likely to claim the top spot in the weeks to come? And is it meaningful to be getting so many big hits by newer artists at once? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Despite being each artist’s first visit to the chart’s top 10, within a month of their Hot 100 debuts, each of Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby,” Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” finds itself in this week’s top five. Which of the three hits has been most impressive to you with its rapid rise?

Rania Aniftos: Shaboozey! Black artists are slowly but surely staking their claim in country music and country-adjacent genres, and it’s been long overdue. I’m so glad Shaboozey had his time to shine on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, and has since been able to amplify his own career. I’m impressed by his skyrocketed success and excited to see where he goes from here!

Kyle Denis: Definitely Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby.” You can track both Shaboozey’s (two Queen Bey collabs + each of previous singles was bigger than the last) and Sabrina’s (Eras Tour opener who has recently solidified herself as a formidable presence on top 40 radio) success pretty easily. Outside of some significant underground motion, Tommy Richman’s name didn’t even exist in the zeitgeist last month – now he has the most-streamed song in the country this week with his very first Hot 100 entry. 

Josh Glicksman: Shaboozey. Parlaying guest turns on a blockbuster album into solo chart success is a much more difficult task than he’s made it seem, and particularly so given that country music typically doesn’t have the immediate streaming power — save for a handful of marquee artists — as some of the other genres filling the top 10 of the Hot 100. Sure, the J-Kwon “Tipsy” interpolation gives “A Bar Song” a boost, but the latter is unquestionably a hit in its own right, avoiding the over-reliance on nostalgia that songs of a similar ilk have fallen victim to in the past year.

Jason Lipshutz: While Sabrina Carpenter has already enjoyed pop radio success prior to “Espresso” and Shaboozey’s profile grew significantly thanks to his multiple features on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, Tommy Richman’s “Million Dollar Baby” has seemingly come out of nowhere to thus far out-chart both of them. Yes, Brent Faiyaz has co-signed Richman and brought him on tour — but Faiyaz has yet to score a solo hit within the same stratosphere as “Million Dollar Baby,” which exploded on TikTok to such a degree that it debuted at No. 2 amidst stiff competition. We’ll see how durable of a hit “Million Dollar Baby” proves to be, but that start was breathtaking.

Andrew Unterberger: All three are undoubtedly impressive, but the real jaw-dropper to me here is Richman. To drop a new single at very possibly the most crowded moment for major new releases we’ve had so far this decade and not only make a major impression, but immediately zoom to the very head of the class — outside of the reigning valedictorian, anyway — is simply stunning for any artist, especially one with so little established chart history.

2. All three songs figure to be contenders for the top spot in the weeks to come. If you had to bet on one of them to eventually get there — or to be the first to get there, if you think multiple will — which would you opt for?

Rania Aniftos: I have to say “Espresso,” because I know I’m not the only one who can’t get that damn “I’m working late/ ‘Cause I’m a singerrrrrrr” line out of their head. It’s such a catchy song and it’s everywhere! 

Kyle Denis: Given that just three 2024 releases have spent more than a single week atop the Hot 100, I’m willing to wager that all three songs will get there – but they likely won’t enjoy very long stays at the pole position. Who’s getting there first? Probably “Million Dollar Baby,” it’s outpacing the other two songs on most major U.S. streaming platforms – and it feels like that kind of hit that won’t necessarily need radio to carry it. 

Josh Glicksman: “Espresso.” Its nu-disco production is tailor-made for sunny days and open windows and will garner endless airplay at pop radio. I expect both “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Million Dollar Baby” to hang around for extended stays as well — and could very well see the former getting to No. 1 as well at some point — but it’s hard to bet against the bona fide pop hit, especially when it’s such an instantly obvious song of the summer contender. Did I already mention how much you’re going to hear it on the radio?

Jason Lipshutz: “Espresso,” since it sounds like one of the sturdiest pop hits of the year, it’s already a top 5 hit, and its radio run hasn’t even kicked off in earnest yet. Songs like “Nonsense” and “Feather” proved Sabrina Carpenter’s top 40 appeal, and “Espresso” is already a bigger hit than both of those previous singles; meanwhile, Carpenter is a more of a prominent star than she’s ever been, and she’s poured us a three-minute shot of bliss in time for summer. The top of the Hot 100 is crowded right now, but I think that “Espresso” will spend multiple weeks at No. 1 in the June/July range.

Andrew Unterberger: I would say “Million Dollar Baby,” since its initial velocity has been so impressive and it’s already so close to the top spot. But the fact of the matter is that it’s likely going to get stuck behind an onslaught of Kendrick Lamar for at least the next week or two, after which another new song (maybe something from the new Billie Eilish album due friday after next?) very well may have lapped it momentum-wise. So I’ll bet on the long game with “Espresso,” as the song’s warm-weather vibes and Carpenter’s recently established history on the airwaves all but guarantees it ruling radio all summer — meaning it’ll always be in range of the Hot 100’s top spot, and able to seize it with a new remix or video or other viral moment (or if we ever just get another slow chart week again).

3. Beyond these already-minted hits, which of the artists behind them (between Richman, Shaboozey and Carpenter) do you expect to make the biggest/most extended chart impact in the years to come?

Rania Aniftos: Again, I’m going to give this one to Sabrina. She’s been working hard at her career since she was a child on the Disney Channel and I’m surprised it’s taken her this long to pop off. She has an excellent discography and Emails I Can’t Send is a completely underrated pop album. I’m expecting “Espresso” to lead music lovers to finally give Sabrina the success she deserves.

Kyle Denis: My money’s on Sabrina given she already has bigger chart hits than both Shaboozey and Richman. Couple that with the fact that she’s truly made the best of the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity that is opening for what will likely go down as the biggest tour of all time, Sabrina will be around for a minute. At the very least, she’ll become a true pop radio staple. Shaboozey’s path is obviously a bit different as he’s navigating the Nashville machine as a Black man, and Richman will probably collect one or two smaller hits before comfortably reassuming his cult hero status. 

Josh Glicksman: I’ll take Sabrina Carpenter here. She’s been bubbling just under the surface of A-list pop star for what feels like years now (it’s not too late to give “Sue Me” the full moment that it has always deserved!) and now that she’s collecting a handful of Hot 100 entries, I expect that to quickly grow into the size of an overdue grocery shopping list before long.

Jason Lipshutz: Carpenter, whose 2022 album Emails I Can’t Send contained a ton of promise, and everything she’s done since then has fulfilled that promise. “Espresso” represents a breakthrough hit, but Carpenter contains the personality and pop know-how of a superstar — and she’s becoming one now, after years of build-up and gathering momentum. Shaboozey and Richman are both on upward trajectories, but Carpenter has a higher ceiling, and should be a chart force for a long time.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s Carpenter, simply because this moment is the culmination of a good half-decade — arguably even longer — of work she’s put in building her audience and pop cred, and now officially joining the ranks of the A-listers. But honestly, I’m buying stock in all three of these artists. I’d be pretty surprised if this was the last we heard from any of them on the Hot 100.

4. While these are the three biggest breakout hits currently challenging Taylor Swift’s “Fortnight” for the chart’s top spot, they’re hardly the only new singles currently making waves on the chart. Who that’s a little lower down on the listing could you see elbowing your way into the top tier before long?

Rania Aniftos: I feel like Chappell Roan is on a similar wavelength with the artist we’ve been discussing today. “Good Luck, Babe!” is a great track and Chappell is a great artist. I would love to see a snippet from that song go viral and project the track into the top 10. 

Kyle Denis: I’m definitely keeping an eye on Lay Bankz’s “Tell Ur Girlfriend” (No. 58), GloRilla & Megan Thee Stallion’s “Wanna Be” (No. 34, this week) and Bryson Tiller’s “Ciao,” which does not currently rank on the Hot 100. 

Josh Glicksman: Aside from the obvious picks in the Kendrick Lamar-Drake rap battle, Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” and Dasha’s “Austin” both feel like they have plenty of runway left and may jetset well into the summer. The former act is coming into a superstar moment of sorts of her own, while the latter hit continues to build on a global scale. Both currently sit in the 40s, and as the Taylor Swift takeover clears out a bit in the coming week, there should be ample room to grow.

Jason Lipshutz: Chappell Roan’s “Good Luck, Babe!” hasn’t entered the top 40 yet, but the single sounds like a smart, charismatic commercial breakthrough for an artist with a dedicated fan base that’s been growing exponentially over the past few months. I’d expect it to keep climbing in the coming weeks based on its promising streaming returns, and depending on radio’s reaction, challenge for the top 20 (at least) soon enough.

Andrew Unterberger: All signs are clearly pointing to Chappell Roan being next up — though I’m still hoping Nashville stops messing around and finally embraces Dasha’s viral “Austin” as the future of pop-leaning country, which it almost certainly is and should be.

5. Along with Benson Boone’s “Beautiful Things” and Teddy Swims’ “Lose Control,” first-timer artists in the top 10 take up five of the top six spots this week. Do you think it’s meaningful that there has been such a presence for breakout artists in the chart’s top tier this year, or is it just a fluke of timing?

Rania Aniftos: While my gut is telling me it’s a fluke while we wait for the slew of major artist releases this year, I really hope it’s not. It’s been so refreshing seeing new names on the Hot 100, and I want to see more! 

Kyle Denis: I think we’re still in a weird place where pop culture is trying to move forward, but our near-constant nostalgia loop is keeping us beholden to stars of yesteryear. Of course, some of those stars genuinely are still cranking out releases that do meaningfully shift the culture: We’ve gotten back-to-back blockbuster albums from Beyoncé, Ye & Ty Dolla $ign, Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, and Future & Metro Boomin (twice!) Yet tracks from those albums — barring most of their lead singles — aren’t the ones setting up shop in the Hot 100’s upper regions this year. 

Josh Glicksman: If anything, it’s especially meaningful given the deluge of superstar releases so far in 2024. It could be that there have been so many blockbuster albums that the A-listers are canceling one another’s opportunities for extended chart runs a bit, but regardless, the hits from breakout artists this year are well beyond the point of calling it a fluke.

Jason Lipshutz: The timing is a little fluky — in recent weeks, veteran stars like Beyoncé, Future & Metro Boomin, Ariana Grande and Jack Harlow also occupied the top 10 — but this happy upswing in newcomers to the top 10 also underscores a general hunger for unfamiliar voices in heavy rotation after a run of high-profile albums. The release calendar has been packed so far in 2024, but thanks to a mix of TikTok virality, new pop trends like the country-folk revival, and undeniable singles from non-superstars, the top of the Hot 100 looks revitalized. We’re in for a fun-as-hell summer slate, as big projects and out-of-nowhere hits balance each other out on the Hot 100.

Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s simple: Popular music is up right now. Pretty much all genres, from pop to rap to country to rock, are hitting right now — while also intertwining inextricably, of course — and there’s plenty of room for exciting new releases from both the ruling class of hitmakers and an entirely new wave. It’s a fun time to be a top 40 fan, which is not something we’ve often said this decade around this time of the year.

In a year where the big stars of the past decade have been coming out early to lay claim to the top spot of the Billboard Hot 100 — Beyoncé, Ariana Grande, Future, Metro Boomin and Kendrick Lamar, the entire Vultures crew — one 2010s hitmaker few saw coming as a top-spot threat scores his first-ever No. 1 on the chart this week.

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Hozier, whose lone single to approach the top of the Hot 100 came in 2014 with the No. 2-peaking megaballad “Take Me to Church,” reaches No. 1 this week with TikTok-teased new single “Too Sweet” in its fourth week on the chart. The Irish singer-songwriter had maintained a sizable fanbase since the 2014 smash, but went the next eight years without reaching the Hot 100, until scoring a handful of entries in the lower stretches and one top 40 hit (via an appearance on the remix to Noah Kahan’s “Northern Attitude”) last year.

How did Hozier make his way not only back to the top 10, but all the way to the top spot? And what does this mean for his career going forward? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. So straight off the top — if you were told at the beginning of 2024 that Hozier would have his first No. 1 hit by April, how surprised would you be, on a scale from 1 to 10?

Katie Atkinson: 10! Of course, watching the Hot 100 in the months since has definitely made it much less surprising, because we’ve seen TeddySwims score his first No. 1, we’ve seen Benson Boone climb to No. 2, and we’ve seen Noah Kahan peak in the top 10, so Hozier topping the chart is completely in line with all that. But knowing what we knew on Jan. 1, it had been 10 years since he broke through with “Take Me to Church” and he was still hanging around the Hot 100, but the closest he’d returned to his No. 2 peak with “Church” was to the top 40 last year with Kahan (more on that below). Clearly, his chart-topping moves were already in the works.

Stephen Daw: 10, easy. I loved Unreal Unearth and have been a big fan of Hozier’s since his self-titled debut LP in 2013 — but I genuinely thought “Take Me to Church” would be his chart ceiling. Even when “Too Sweet” began blowing up online, I figured, at best, it would float around the top 40 for a few months before dying back down. But I am delightfully shocked to see audiences really embrace Hozier again, especially on a song as undeniably good as “Too Sweet.” 

Kyle Denis: About a 7. I had a feeling that whatever music Hozier came out with post-Unreal Unearth would do fairly well. That album did a lot to rejuvenate casual interest him beyond being pigeon-holed as the “Take Me to Chruch” guy. 

Jason Lipshutz: A 7. Sure, Hozier hasn’t been churning out top 10 hits over the past few years, but he has accrued quite a following during that time — there’s a reason he was able to schedule an arena and amphitheater tour for later this year, before “Too Sweet” was even released. Plus, country- and folk-adjacent pop-rock has certainly invaded the upper reaches of the Hot 100 over the past six months, with artists like Noah Kahan, Zach Bryan, Teddy Swims and Benson Boone all scoring smashes with their respective versions of the guitar-based renaissance. So, yes, still surprising to see a Hozier single atop the Hot 100, but certainly far from jaw-dropping.

Andrew Unterberger: A 9 — and it would’ve been a 10 at the beginning of 2023, but after Hozier’s impressive last year and popular music generally tilting in the direction of his arena-sized alt-folk, a comeback moment of some kind certainly seemed like it could’ve been on the horizon. But a No. 1 hit, at this extremely competitive moment in Hot 100 history? No, I cannot pretend that I saw that coming in any way.

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2. Hozier had not even reached the Hot 100 again for eight years following his 2014 smash “Take Me to Church,” then returned to the Hot 100 multiple times in the past year, though he had not gotten higher than No. 37 as a guest on Noah Kahan’s remixed “Northern Attitude.” Is him finally reaching No. 1 this year more of a function of overall timing or about “Too Sweet” in particular, in your opinion?

Katie Atkinson: I think timing is a piece of it, but this song is also undeniably great, so I’m going to give it to “Too Sweet.” The song has great lyrics, and you can discover a new cute phrase with every listen, and the way he lilts that chorus seems to put his not-quite-right partner’s sweetness into song. The combo of its easy-listening melody paired with lyrics we can all probably relate to makes for a hit.

Stephen Daw: It’s definitely more about “Too Sweet” itself, but the timing certainly doesn’t hurt. With the Noah Kahanaissance in full swing, contemporary folk music is having its biggest moment since the “stomp clap hey” days of the early 2010s, which is a huge opportunity for artists like Hozier who thrived in that aforementioned era. It’s abundantly clear that “Too Sweet” came in the perfect timeframe, but it’s worth noting that Hozier put out an entire album of folk songs in the middle of this sea change last year, and only “Eat Your Young” managed to crack into the lower half of the Hot 100 (debuting at No. 67 and then immediately falling off the chart two weeks later). Clearly, “Too Sweet” has that X factor that keeps people listening. 

Kyle Denis: The success of “Too Sweet,” in particular, has more to do with where the sound of Top 40 is right now than anything else. Analog instrumentation with an emphasis on guitars and big, soaring vocals are in right now (see: Teddy Swims, Benson Boone, Michael Marcagi, Kahan) and Hozier happened to drop an absolute banger at just the right time. Between his incredibly successful Unreal Unearth tour and his countless appearances at festivals across the world, Hozier has enraptured a whole new audience whose ears have been primed for the pop-rock swagger of “Too Sweet” by the other guitar-centric tunes that have dominated the upper regions of the Hot 100 this year. 

Jason Lipshutz: A combination of both. “Too Sweet” is pretty undeniable as a crossover hit, a smoky groove that relies on the deep timbre of Hozier’s voice to provide gravitas to its creeping hooks. Pop music trends helped push “Too Sweet” higher on the Hot 100 than it might have gone in other years, when it was darn near impossible to imagine a straight-up rock song hitting No. 1. Yet for Hozier, this single was the right one to deliver a new level of chart success, and hit the market at the right time.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s gotta be more about timing, because I am just flummoxed as to why this song of all songs is the one to take Hozier to the penthouse. Not that it’s bad, just that it doesn’t feel in any way exceptional among Hozier’s last decade of releases — if you told me it was originally a deep cut I’d forgotten about from 2019’s Wasteland, Baby! I would have zero trouble believing you. People evidently hear more there than I do to be streaming it in the massive numbers that they are, but I still have to think that it’s more effect than cause as relates to the larger Hozier revival.

3. Do you think the success of “Too Sweet” re-establishes Hozier as a true A-list star in 2024, or is it more a one-time deal for the singer-songwriter that’s unlikely to lead to many future successes beyond his pre-established cult fandom?

Katie Atkinson: I think this definitely re-establishes Hozier’s place in music. It’s nice that this trend of growly-voiced singer/songwriters (as established in this very column back in late January) has not only created new stars, but has also given rise to artists who have been doing this for a decade. At this moment, AC and pop radio is more primed to play Hozier music than ever before, and he’s seized that moment.

Stephen Daw: I wouldn’t go as far as saying “A-list,” but I think “Too Sweet” will definitely net Hozier a lot of cultural capital that will cement his place as one of the most sought-after voices in the folk-pop space. That’s in large part because of the cult fandom that has helped spread this song across apps like TikTok for the last few months — with an established fanbase already built in, it only feels that much more natural for newcomers to join in and strengthen that core, which leads to a wider base, which leads to more recruiting, so on and so forth. Watch this space, because “Too Sweet” is just the beginning of Hozier’s mainstream return. 

Kyle Denis: I don’t know if Hozier was ever truly A-list, and I don’t think “Too Sweet” puts him there either. Nonetheless, it’s a beautiful culmination of a truly underrated two years for him. He packed out arenas night after night on Unreal Unearth tour and the accompanying album had a lot of grassroots love, including two chart-toppers at AAA radio. I think, at best, “Too Sweet” will help increase the size of his cult fandom and rope more fans into the sprawling lore behind some of his most beloved songs and lyrics. That should be enough for him to continue getting major hits in his home formats while providing a cushion for a mainstream smash whenever the pop music pendulum swings in the direction of his sound. 

Jason Lipshutz: My guess is that Hozier continues in the same lane he’s occupied for years, with a slighter brighter light moving forward. Maybe he hadn’t matched the single-song success of “Take Me to Church” prior to “Too Sweet,” yet all three of his studio albums scored top 3 debuts on the Billboard 200, and he’s been playing to sizable crowds for a decade now. “Too Sweet” is unlikely to yield a slew of follow-up chart hits, but Hozier was not an obscure artist prior to this No. 1 hit; the audiences streaming his songs and buying his tickets will grow because of “Too Sweet,” regardless of how his next singles perform. 

Andrew Unterberger: I think he’s there, to be honest — probably even moreso than he was in 2014. It’s one thing for radio and pop culture ubiquity to elevate your big hit to smash status (as happened with “Church”), but when it’s simply some good TikTok promotion and online buzz that lifts your song above hot new releases from many of the biggest superstars of the past 15 years, that usually means you’re pretty golden for some time to come. Hozier might not top the Hot 100 again, but I’d be a little surprised at this point if he didn’t become a regular fixture on the chart for at least the next few years.

4. If you had to look back to the early-mid 2010s for another hitmaking artist from the alt and/or folk spheres who could be due for a big 2020s comeback moment like this, who would you point to?

Katie Atkinson: The first thing that came to mind was The Lumineers, who peaked at No. 3 on the Hot 100 back in 2012 with “Ho Hey.” They’ve stayed active in music since then but haven’t climbed back to those heights. They should be looking for a Noah Kahan feature right about now.

Stephen Daw: As much as I desperately want to see Gotye return to his solo career and score another gargantuan hit like “Somebody That I Used to Know,” the chances of that happening seem infinitesimally small. So, instead, I’ll go with Florence + The Machine — the band certainly hasn’t gone anywhere since the peak of their success in 2010 and 2011, charting three top 10 albums in the intervening years. I could easily see Florence Welch and company crafting a folksy, funky anthem that takes off on TikTok and occupies a similar space to “Too Sweet” some time in the next few months. 

Kyle Denis: Gotye or George Ezra. If we stretch to the back half of the 2000s, I’ll throw in Colbie Caillat and Kings of Leon too. 

Jason Lipshutz: If a new Gotye album exists at the end of the earth, to be discovered only by the bravest and most ambitious xylophone-music enthusiast, then it looks like I am going on an expedition. After “Somebody That I Used To Know” took over the Hot 100 and Making Mirrors turned into one of the most underrated pop full-lengths of the 2010s, we are still waiting for a follow-up from Wally de Backer. And while I am a diehard fan rooting for a comeback, I do think that a Gotye return would generate considerable interest from curious pop fans! Call up Kimbra, grab the buckets of face paint, and let’s go.

Andrew Unterberger: “Riptide” singer-songwriter Vance Joy — who, like Hozier, never really went away after his one big U.S. crossover hit — feels no more than a big-ticket remix away from getting back on the Hot 100.

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5. “Take Me to Church”: more timeless classic or dated mid-’10s relic?

Katie Atkinson: Wait, is anyone going to say relic? This song is still so good! I’m definitely going timeless classic and welcoming Andrew Hozier-Byrne back with open arms into the 2020s.

Stephen Daw: I can hear “Take Me to Church” today and feel it hit just as hard as it did a decade ago — this one is timeless classic, for sure. 

Kyle Denis: Timeless classic. This ain’t “Party Rock Anthem!” 

Jason Lipshutz: I lean towards “mid-‘10s relic” — not as a knock on the song, but because, especially in lieu of “Too Sweet” topping the Hot 100, it sure seems like Hozier has transcended what once was his defining hit and fashioned out a formidable career! “Take Me to Church” enjoyed its moment of ubiquity, but its creator has moved on to bigger and better. 

Andrew Unterberger: It’s certainly got claims to being both — it’s hard to hear the song without being reminded of the dozens of trailers and pop culture moments it soundtracked in the mid-’10s, not to mention the moments of our own lives. But I lean a little more towards timeless classic, because even back in 2014 it felt elevated from the rest of what was happening on the charts, and there’s still no other song in 21st century pop music that occupies its exact space.