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In its 20th week on the Billboard Hot 100, Billie Eilish‘s “Birds of a Feather” just continues to keep flying higher and higher. The Hit Me Hard and Soft single, which initially debuted at No. 13 on the Hot 100 back in early June, has since taken over the set’s initial focus track “Lunch” as the biggest hit of this Eilish era.
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This week, it jumps from No. 6 on the chart to a new peak of No. 2 — helped in large part by the debut of its official music video. The only song that remains in the way of the single becoming Eilish’s second No. 1 on the chart is Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which remains at No. 1 for a 13th week this frame, while still leading “Birds” on each of Streaming Songs, Digital Song Sales and Radio Songs.
How has the song remained so commercially potent 20 weeks into its lifespan? And will it be able to make that final jump to No. 1 on the Hot 100? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Billie Eilish’s “Birds of a Feather” reaches a new peak of No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week, in its 20th week on the chart. Are you surprised at the legs (or wings) that the song has had as a pop hit?
Stephen Daw: I’m very pleasantly surprised. When Hit Me Hard and Soft came out in May, “Birds of a Feather” certainly stood out to me among the other tracks, but it didn’t strike me as the logical follow-up to a lead single like “Lunch.” It is an objectively good piece of pop music, I just did not foresee “Birds” having this kind of chart omnipresence five months later.
Kyle Denis: I’m not surprised at all. Even though “Skinny” was my immediate favorite from Hit Me Hard and Soft, “Birds of a Feather” always struck me as a surefire hit. And Billie’s singles tend to stick around for weeks before peaking, so “Birds” taking 20 weeks to reach No. 2 isn’t all that strange.
Lyndsey Havens: Not totally. When the album first arrived, “Birds” was a favorite among many. And whether intentional or not, I think it was smart for team Eilish to hold off on promoting it as a single until recently. With an album like Hit Me, the songs so seamlessly flow into one another and as Eilish has said herself, she purposely held off on releasing any singles before its release so that the album could be consumed as a full project. And in doing so, she’s allowed her fans to tell her which songs they’re most connecting with, versus the other way around. A strategy like that takes time — and in this case, 20-ish weeks seems to be the magic number.
Jason Lipshutz: “Birds of a Feather” snuck up on me as a no-brainer, firing-on-all-cylinders pop smash, considering how the song features Eilish in a different vocal and structural mode than we’re used to hearing. Yet “Feather” is effervescent in sound and immediate in its appeal, with a mid-tempo approach that makes it an easy connector on streaming playlists and pop radio blocks; in this way, it reminds me of Miley Cyrus’ “Flowers,” another song that persisted for months near the top of the Hot 100 and crept towards that artist’s biggest-hit-yet status.
Andrew Unterberger: I am a little surprised, just because “Lunch” seemed like the big one for me off the bat — but “Birds of a Feather” is such a sweet moment and pretty song that once it founds its way to the center of the culture, it’s hardly shocking that it would nest there for a while.
2. Much of the reason for the song jumping from 6-2 on the listing this week is the debut of its new official music video. Does the new visual add to your appreciation / understanding of the song, detract from it, or have no major impact for you?
Stephen Daw: It certainly adds to my appreciation, though marginally. I really loved that Billie took a minimalist approach to the video while adding to the kind of off-kilter, occult vibe that defined so many of her previous visuals. The effects were amazing and I loved that she left it a little bit up to interpretation. That said, I don’t see this as the kind of music video that will move the needle for people who were on the fence about the song — if you were already into “Birds of a Feather” (or not into it, for that matter), then I doubt the video is going to change that.
Kyle Denis: It’s not my favorite music video from Billie, but I appreciate the decision to never actually show the person she’s “sticking together” with. Overall, the clip has no major impact on my enjoyment or understanding of the song, but it does help “Birds” retain a bit of the intimacy it sacrificed on its way to becoming a genuine hit single.
Lyndsey Havens: It’s been a minute since I’ve seen a music video create so much discourse — and not really in the most positive way. The reaction among many seemed to be confusion, not quite understanding the visual or expecting Eilish to go in a different, perhaps more floral-inspired, direction. Either way, the video accomplished what it likely set out to do: get people talking. And as a result, it reached new heights on the Hot 100. That’s a win any way you spin it.
Jason Lipshutz: The music video adds to my appreciation, in the same way that most of Eilish’s visuals have deepened the meaning of her biggest hits. She remains one of the more visually striking pop superstars working today, an A-lister whose music videos really matter by often offering something unexpected in relation to the music. The “Feather” clip is simple enough but also breathtaking in terms of visual effects, with Eilish defying gravity in an empty room; the music video grabs your attention while also placing the emotion of the song front and center.
Andrew Unterberger: It adds a little. I don’t think it’s one anyone expected or even really wanted from the visual — the song seemed to call out for something more lush and sentimental — but that ability and willingness to curve expectations and follow her own muse has long been a hallmark of Eilish’s stardom and artistry, and the gravity-defying, wind-swept, still incredibly personal and striking images from this more minimal clip will I think still end up being iconic of this era.
3. Perhaps surprisingly for a pop star of her stature, “Birds” is only Billie’s third top two hit on the Hot 100 (after “Bad Guy” and “Therefore I Am”). Do you think it will be remembered as one of the defining songs of her career, or is it too difficult to judge the overall impact of Eilish’s songs by their chart placement?
Stephen Daw: I think it’s too hard to call based solely on chart performance. Just look at her other top two hits — while “Bad Guy” is such a clear, career-defining smash for Billie, “Therefore I Am” doesn’t feel like one of the five songs I would list when asked what Billie’s most definitive tracks are. Songs like “Happier Than Ever,” “When the Party’s Over,” “Bury a Friend” or “Ocean Eyes” would take those spots up for me, and they didn’t crack the chart’s top 10. Maybe “Birds” could take on that level of prominence as her career continues, but for the moment, it feels too early to tell.
Kyle Denis: “Birds” will almost certainly be remembered as one of Billie’s defining songs; it takes the somber introspection of her best tracks and transposes it through the lens of grade-A pop songwriting. It’s also an endlessly applicable love song that can work for both platonic and romantic relationships. Billie’s most impactful songs — “Lovely” (with Khalid), “When the Party’s Over,” and “Happier Than Ever,” for example – often miss the Hot 100’s top 10, but “Birds of a Feather” seems to be following in the steps of “Bad Guy” with its combination of commercial success and cultural impact.
Lyndsey Havens: The thing I love about Billie is when I think of her today or how she’ll be remembered in the future, it’s often for being Billie Eilish. Not for any one album or any one song or even any one hair color (though her debut lime green look is burned into memory). I don’t know if “Birds” will become a career-defining hit — and don’t necessarily think it will — but that’s fine. I think some artists’ legacies transcend their chart histories, and I believe Eilish to be one of them.
Jason Lipshutz: At this point, “Birds of a Feather” is only second to “Bad Guy” as Eilish’s defining hit, surpassing songs like “Happier Than Ever,” “Everything I Wanted” and “Therefore I Am” in terms of cultural impact and chart longevity. It’s funny to think about how “Lunch” was positioned as the focus track from Hit Me Hard and Soft upon its release, and listeners simply selected “Feather” as the album’s true standout through their streaming selections. Now, I could see “Feather” as a go-to track for any casual Eilish fan — or as a set-closing moment on her future arena tours.
Andrew Unterberger: Certainly Eilish’s chart peaks do not always correlate to cultural relevance — despite its Hot 100 bow, I don’t know if anyone considers “Therefore I Am” one of her 20 best or most impactful songs — but it does feel like “Birds” will hold a special place in her catalog, unlikely to be supplanted or replaced. It’s just too powerful, too intoxicating, too meaningful for those who have most found meaning in it.
4. Meanwhille, “Wildflower” continues to climb on the Hot 100, moving 45-35 on the Hot 100 this week after having originally debuted at No. 17 in June. Does the song also feel like a major hit to you, or more like spillover from “Birds” and other recent successes of Eilish’s?
Stephen Daw: “Wildflower” is probably my second favorite song off of Hit Me Hard (“Chihiro” will always have my heart), so I’m delighted to see it blooming on the chart. I don’t know that I would call “Wildflower” a certified hit, since its rise does feel like a symptom of “Birds” flying so high. But given the right attention from fans (and maybe another video from Billie) it definitely could be the project’s next breakout hit.
Kyle Denis: “Wildflower” is another one of my favorites from Hit Me Hard and Soft, and it definitely sounds like a hit to me – especially that back half. I think the song is getting a couple of new eyes and ears thanks to the success of “Birds” and “Guess,” but I also think people are rallying around “Wildflower” because it’s such an undeniably great song. It’s raw and painfully truthful in a way that calls back to Billie’s scar-baring 2019 debut LP while offering a darker alternative to the sweetness of “Birds” and the suggestive nature of “Guess.”
Lyndsey Havens: With an album as tender as Hit Me, it’s hard to measure success in terms of hit potential. Eilish has certainly proved the power of a softly soaring ballad, and as a result I think songs like “Birds” and “Wildflower” have simply taken more time to catch on. They surely bring listeners back time and time again, but in a different way than a punchy pop hit does. So, while I don’t see “Wildflower” enjoying the same success as “Birds” has, the fact that it’s moving up at all after so many months is proof that Eilish was right in releasing the album all at once — and proof that only few can pull off what she has.
Jason Lipshutz: “Wildflower” has been oscillating on the Hot 100 for months now, almost as a counterpoint for the more radio-friendly “Birds of a Feather” and as further proof of a general hunger for Eilish’s new music. I don’t foresee “Wildflower” challenging for the top 10 anytime soon, but I think it will live on as a fan favorite in playlists and set lists, and places the success of Hit Me Hard and Soft in bold font, beyond just the album’s biggest hit.
Andrew Unterberger: The endurance of “Wildflower” has been very impressive to me — honestly, the fact that Hit Me still has four separate songs on the Hot 100 20 weeks into its lifespan is pretty absurd during an era when even the biggest albums are able to get two hits that long-lasting. I dunno if “Wildflower” is ever gonna be a real top 10 contender given how un-radio-friendly the acoustic ballad is, but I could see it enduring as a fan favorite and live fixture for a long time.
5. Do you think “Birds of a Feather” will eventually become Eilish’s second Hot 100 No. 1 hit?
Stephen Daw: “Birds,” to me, is the song with the best chance to end Shaboozey’s run at the top of the chart at this moment — with the right push from Billie (maybe a sync on a hit show or something similar), she could finally have her second No. 1.
Kyle Denis: Probably? From a smartly timed live performance to remixes and other versions, there are plenty of ways “Birds” could eventually reach the top of the Hot 100. After all, “Bad Guy” spent nine weeks at No. 2 before eventually peaking at No. 1, so who knows how much gas “Birds” has left in the tank!
Lyndsey Havens: You know what, I do think it can get there. Given that Eilish is on a massive tour right now — and coming on the heels of the song’s music video — the extra attention could give the song the final boost it needs to hit the top spot.
Jason Lipshutz: I do. Although it’s difficult to bet against “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” logging more frames atop the Hot 100, “Birds of a Feather” has proven durable enough as a multi-platform hit that I think it will sneak up to No. 1 for at least a week over the next month, rightfully joining “Bad Guy” as the two chart-toppers in Eilish’s career thus far.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think so, just because it’s already pretty late in its lifespan, I can’t see its radio play getting that much more massive, and even with this video bump, it’s still being pretty handily outstreamed by “A Bar Song.” A No. 2 peak feels perfect to me for this song anyway; let it keep just a little bit of that outsider edge.
The top spot of the Billboard 200 albums chart is becoming particularly familiar territory for Future in 2024. After visiting the apex earlier this year (along with producer co-star Metro Boomin) on the We Don’t Trust You and We Still Don’t Trust You sets, he takes a third trip there this week with his Mixtape Pluto set.
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The new record — billed as a return to the rapper’s mixtape days, with 17 tracks and no credited features — bows at No. 1 this week with 129,000 units in its first frame. In addition to the set being Future’s third to top the Billboard 200 this year, it’s the 11th total in his career, moving him into a four-way tie (with Bruce Springsteen, Eminem and Ye) for fifth place among all artists, behind only The Beatles (19), Jay-Z, Taylor Swift (both 14) and Drake (13).
What do these accomplishments mean for Future? And what do we make of his mixtape-era return? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Future’s Mixtape Pluto debuts at No. 1 this week with 129,000 units, marking his third No. 1 album in the last six months, after the We Don’t Trust You and We Still Don’t Trust You sets with Metro Boomin. On a scale of 1-10, how impressive is that accomplishment for Future in 2024? Christopher Claxton: A 9. For Future to have three No. 1 albums in 2024 is a very impressive accomplishment, on top of the accomplishment of just releasing three albums in a single year. We live in a very competitive music landscape, with ever-evolving trends, so to continue to stay on top of an all-genre chart is remarkable.
Kyle Denis: I’d say about a 7. We’ve already seen him achieve No. 1 album debuts in back-to-back weeks, so this feels like the natural step. In 2024, this feat is particularly impressive to me because of 1) how crowded the marketplace is with major mainstream releases and 2) how dominant of a presence Future has been this year without necessarily plastering his face and name across every possible channel. Outside of “Like That,” Future’s 2024 success hasn’t been tied to a single track, which means his fans are showing up to consume each new release in its entirety – something every artist strives for.
Angel Diaz: I give it a 10 on the impressive scale. The mainstream media were trying to leave rap for dead because they secretly believe its pop culture dominance is still a fad. They were reminded that rap music is but a cog in hip-hop culture and Future is one of its most influential figures. Nobody sings the blues quite like he does.
Michael Saponara: 9. It’s amazing Future is still doing this at 40. He’s an ageless wonder in what’s typically a young person’s game. His voice spans generations and fans just won’t get sick of him no matter how many times he wants to drop. It’s not like his subject matter has changed all that much over the course of his career – making this run even all the more impressive. When it comes to the last decade of rap’s Mount Rushmore, make room for the Atlanta legend.
Andrew Unterberger: 8. It might really be a 9 or a 10 but it’s hard to be actively impressed by Future’s commercial consistency at this point because it’s been such a constant the past decade — he may not put up single-week numbers like the pop A+ listers, but he seems much less susceptible to any ebbing tides or major consumption shifts than many of them are.
2. It’s also Future’s 11th career No. 1 album, putting him in a tie for the fifth-most of any artist, behind only all-time hitmakers The Beatles, Taylor Swift, Jay-Z and Drake. What do you think the main reason is that Future has been able to amass such a tremendous total of chart-toping albums in the last decade?
Christopher Claxton: I believe the main reason Future has been able to amass such a tremendous number of chart-topping albums over the last decade is his incredible consistency and dedication to the craft. Future has been in the rap game for well over a decade, staying true to the core sound that his fans fell in love with while also showcasing versatility. He’s not afraid to mix new styles, flows, and production approaches with what he’s already doing, and it works for him every time. He consistently drops projects almost every year, allowing him to ride the hype of his previous work to promote the latest.
Kyle Denis: I think the main reason is how frequently he releases sets; his 2024 run is a bit reminiscent of his 2014-15 run, during which he put out four mixtapes and two albums. Not only is he dropping music at an incredibly fast rate, but he also rarely wavers qualitatively. Whether he’s going full trap or playing around with hip-hop’s more melodic pockets, Future consistently delivers strong projects to a fan base that has bought into his brand and sound for over two decades now.
Angel Diaz: Good music that no one else on the planet can replicate. All they can do is either get inspired or bite.
Michael Saponara: “I told my b—h, ‘If I gotta be faithful, I might fall off,’” Future raps on “Told My.” It’s that kind of dedication to the Future persona that keeps him at the top of the game. His quality hasn’t dipped and fans know what they’re getting pretty much every time out. Future also has a keen ear when it comes to finding the right crew of talented producers matching his vision, in addition to being a malleable collaborator that’s able to mesh with any of rap’s A-listers or even crossover into the pop world.
Andrew Unterberger: Fans don’t really demand anything of Future except for More Future, and he gives it to them early and often. It’s a winning (and repeatable) formula!
3. “Teflon Don,” “Too Fast” and “Lil Demon” are the set’s highest-debuting songs on the Hot 100 this week — though each lands in the 21-25 range, and all 17 of the album’s tracks appear on the chart. Does any of them seem like an obvious breakout hit from the album? Christopher Claxton: An obvious breakout to me is “Too Fast,” which is one of my favorites from the project. It’s classic “toxic” Future — he talks about succumbing to the temptations of success and blowing his money on high-end items for a woman he really shouldn’t be spending money on, especially since he doesn’t even know if he likes her or not. The track also explores the idea of living a fast-paced lifestyle, which many can relate to in one way or another. He plays with the idea that maybe he achieved rapid success and everything he’s accomplished is “too fast,” and that success may come at a cost.
Kyle Denis: Funnily enough, only “Teflon Don,” struck me as an obvious breakout hit out of those three tracks. I wouldn’t be surprised if “Plutoski” and “Told My” pull ahead in the coming weeks.
Angel Diaz: “Too Fast” is the one. No one has made trickin’ sound so cool, yet sound so shameful. It’s probably one of his more insane songs if you really sit down and listen to what he’s saying. He’s just a guy looking for love, you know?
Michael Saponara: I don’t think there’s one specific song that will be the crown jewel rising to the top from Mixtape Pluto. If it was up to me, “Ski” would’ve been the hit record. I wish there was a collaboration with either a Travis Scott, Gunna, etc. that could’ve become the focus track to dominate the Hot 100.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t hear a breakout hit here, no.
4. The Mixtape Pluto title seems to signal a return on this project to Future’s mixtape days, which of course played a huge part in his early-to-mid-‘10s rise to stardom. Do you see his approach on this album as being notably reminiscent of those mixtapes (or notably different than how he’s handled his recent studio albums)? Christopher Claxton: I feel like Future’s past mixtapes were less polished than his studio albums, and the argument could be made that those early tracks captured Future at his most authentic self. By calling this project a mixtape, he could be implying that this album is less commercially focused and about reclaiming his dominance in trap music. I believe Future is revisiting an era where his artistry built his loyal fanbase, reconnecting with his street-centric, women-loving style.
Kyle Denis: With no features and a tonal shift away from the R&B-leaning cuts of 2022’s I Never Liked You and 2024’s We Still Don’t Trust You, Mixtape Pluto transports Future back into a strictly rap bag, through which he doubles down on the villainy and vulnerability that make his iteration of emo-rap so enthralling. There aren’t any obvious tentpole pop crossover attempts à la “Wait For U,” but everything feels a bit more insular, which is how the best – or at least my favorite – Future tapes feel.
Angel Diaz: Yeah, the songs aren’t as glossy. Song like “Plutoski” have an endearing, unfinished quality as he sort of mumbles he way through the chorus. This tape is strictly for the streets and made to be played in a car at obscene levels.
Michael Saponara: Going solo with no features and turning to longtime collaborators like Southside and Wheezy behind the boards lend to the nostalgia of the mixtape era. Song content and flows remain similar and he pulled on rapheads’ heartstrings while paying homage to the Dungeon Family with the purple-drenched Mixtape Pluto cover art. R.I.P. Rico Wade.
Andrew Unterberger: Calling a project a mixtape seems to be more about managing commercial expectations than anything else in 2024 — with no big guests or obvious singles, this album wasn’t going to do numbers like We Don’t Trust You, and Future seemed to understand that (and his fans don’t really demand that of him anyway). He’s got enough of a base that’s excited to be getting the raw Future that he still gets his No. 1 and adds to his impressive career totals here.
5. Future is just three albums behind Jay-Z and two behind Drake for the most No. 1 albums among all rappers. What do you think his chances are of ultimately passing them and standing along among rappers in Billboard 200 history?
Christopher Claxton: It’s entirely possible for Future to surpass Jay-Z and Drake to hold the record for the most No. 1 albums among rappers. Future continues to drop at least one project a year, consistently allowing him to close the gap. He’s only three albums behind Jay-Z, all he needs to do is drop three more fantastic albums next year like he did in this one and the goal has been reached. Yes, that’s no easy task but it’s well within his reach. Jay-Z and Drake are still active in the game, but the last time Jay dropped in terms of solo releases was in 2017 — so I think the only person Future has to worry about is Drake, an artist whose work continues to perform well on the charts. With Future’s ability to remain relevant, drop music very consistently and his dedicated fanbase, he has everything he needs. If he continues to drop music at this pace, I think he’ll have the most No. 1s among rappers by 2026.
Kyle Denis: I won’t outright say 100%, but it’s pretty damn close to that number. Between Jay-Z’s lengthy breaks between albums and the recent (partially Future-induced) cooling of Drake’s commercial might, Future could very well pass them both when all is said and done. It all depends on how each of those three artists gauges their release schedules and how their cultural-commercial pull holds up over the next few years.
Angel Diaz: I wouldn’t bet the house on it, but it’s doable. I’m curious to see if Drake’s stock has really dropped as much as social media says it has. I think he has a couple more No. 1s in him, so it’ll be hard for Future to catch up. But Pluto seems to be in another one of his zones again, which means he probably has a couple more bangers to leave us with before he decides we’re not worth his time anymore.
Michael Saponara: This definitely has a better chance of happening than I would’ve thought a few years ago. With his ability to hastily deliver projects quicker than the seasons change, the record is within reach. Jay-Z doesn’t appear to have anything on the horizon and Drake will continue to add No. 1s to his resume, but I’d bet he pulls back when it comes to his output compared to recent years.
Andrew Unterberger: It seems all but sure he’ll pass Jay, but bridging that two-album gap between him and Drake could be a little tougher. That said, last year that gap was five albums and this year it’s just two. No one would ever call Drake a slacker, but that level of productivity might be a little beyond even him, especially while he’s still reeling and retooling post-Kendrick beef. If I had to bet on it, I’d say he passes Drake eventually.
After a week in which the highest debut on the Billboard Hot 100 was the No. 21 bow of Linkin Park’s “The Emptiness Machine,” this week, three new entries on the chart grace the back half of the top 20.
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The highest of the three comes from the most established pop star: The Weeknd, whose new Hurry Up Tomorrow gets underway with the No. 14 debut of its lead single “Dancing in the Flames.” Then comes rap star Playboi Carti, whose much-anticipated new song “All Red” lands at No. 15. And finally, Tate McRae’s well-received new single “It’s OK, I’m OK” enters at No. 20.
Which of the three songs will have the longest legs? And why have we had so few top 10 debuts on the Hot 100 of late? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. “Dancing in the Flames,” the first taste from The Weeknd’s alleged final chapter Hurry Up Tomorrow, bows at No. 14 this week. Is that higher, lower or about where you would have expected for the song?
Rania Aniftos: Definitely lower, but I can’t figure out why. Was it because there wasn’t enough build-up between the announcement and release, perhaps? I was expecting the lead single of the project to at least debut in the top 10, especially given how record-breaking After Hours was. Maybe the rest of Hurry Up Tomorrow’s rollout will boost the track.
Katie Bain: I’m not surprised to see The Weeknd’s first solo track of the year debut higher than his recent The Idol-bred group efforts, and 14 feels like a good starting point for the song, which I think is one that grows on the ears with each listen. And in that sense, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one keep climbing from here, especially that given his history, we know he’s the king of keeping songs on the Hot 100 for the long run.
Jason Lipshutz: Maybe a little lower, considering The Weeknd’s track record of top 10 debuts on the Hot 100 and the relative radio silence preceding this much-hyped new single. To me, the No. 14 debut speaks less to the long-term chart potential of “Dancing in the Flames,” and more about how static the top of the Hot 100 is currently — as Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” spends an 11th week at No. 1 and radio-boosted hits by Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Kendrick Lamar and Morgan Wallen have logged months in the upper frame, new tracks like “Flames” have a tougher time trying to break through in their first weeks of release. If I’m Team Weeknd, I’m cool with a No. 14 debut, with an impetus on trying to push upward this fall.
Michael Saponara: First off, solid lead single from Abel. Although, I did think it would debut higher than No. 14 on the Hot 100 with the anticipation heading into the final chapter feeling palpable combined with the fact he released an EP version of the single featuring nine different versions had me believing XO was looking for even more commercial dominance out of the gate.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s low for a new Weeknd single… but about right for this new Weeknd single, in my opinion. It’s a fine song, it’s just not exciting or new-sounding enough to me for it to force its way into the top 10, especially not at a time when nothing in the top 10 seems to want to budge for anyone new.
2. “All Red” is already Playboi Carti’s top-charting song as a lead artist on the Hot 100, debuting at No. 15. Does the song mark a big step forward for him artistically or commercially, do you think, or is its high debut mostly the climax of the few years’ worth of momentum he’s built up through high-profile guest appearances and general cult-building?
Rania Aniftos: Huge step forward! Rap fans already knew Playboi Carti is a force to be reckoned with. While mainstream music fans knew his talents as a collaborator, it’s about time he’s getting appreciated as a solo star. I feel like this is just the beginning for Carti on the Hot 100.
Katie Bain: To my ears, this is one of the catchiest and most accessible songs of the Carti catalog thus far, so I have to believe this debut is a synergistic function of the song working for and across more listener bases, along with general cult-building.
Jason Lipshutz: The latter. “All Red” doesn’t try to reinvent the wheel when it comes to Playboi Carti’s signature approach, but after months of anticipation for his next solo era, the single arrived on a mountain of hype and scored enough immediate streams to notch his career-best solo debut. Whenever Carti does drop the follow-up to Whole Lotta Red, I’d expect more of the experimental streak that made his last album so compelling; for now, “All Red” is a warning shot aimed at the mainstream, and it accomplished its job.
Michael Saponara: King Vamp is back. It’s a major statement for him commercially, but this is also due to the build-up surrounding the fact Carti hasn’t released any music officially on streaming services since 2020. Whether you like it or not, he’s the king sitting atop the throne for rap’s Gen-Z fans. Just take a look around the industry and you’ll see plenty of artists attempting to dress like him, mimic his cryptic persona and match the chaotic production he amplified on 2020’s Whole Lotta Red. Cash Carti is the guy right now.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s more about Carti and the cult he’s amassed than about this song in particular — though this song does do its job fairly well. It’s always more about the albums than the individual songs with him anyway, so I think we’ll see the true impact of his ballooning stardom if and when the Whole Lotta Red follow-up drops.
3. Tate McRae’s “It’s OK, I’m OK” bows at No. 20 on the Hot 100 — the highest-debuting song of her career. Has she proven to you yet that she belongs on pop’s A-list, or does she still have some distance to go there?
Rania Aniftos: She’s right there, but I think she needs one more “Greedy” level hit to push her over into the A-list pop category. She certainly has all the traits of a main pop girl, and I would love to see her have a Sabrina Carpenter-level breakthrough year.
Kaite Bain: She’s obviously hustling towards the A-list and I’m not surprised to see her gaining traction given how hard she’s working. This song certainly gets her closer, if not all the way there yet. More so it makes me curious about/excited for what she might do next.
Jason Lipshutz: The idea of “Tate McRae, A-lister” would have seemed far-fetched a year ago… but since then, she’s scored a legitimate pop smash in “Greedy,” a top 10 album with Think Later, performed on SNL, headlined Madison Square Garden, and now earned the first top 20 Hot 100 debut of her career. “It’s OK, I’m OK” isn’t quite as immediate as “Greedy,” but McRae’s trajectory has continued pointing upward as she’s sunk deeper into her choreo-ready rhythmic pop identity. If she’s not on the A-list yet, she’s striding towards it with confidence.
Michael Saponara: Tate McRae’s next album will vault her firmly into pop’s A-list. Coming off her first tour performing in arenas, the Canadian singer’s arrow is clearly pointing up as she soars into further stardom at just 21 years old. By the time her next LP rolls around, we can probably point to “It’s OK, I’m OK” and her summer as the start of her journey making the quantum leap into pop lore.
Andrew Unterberger: It feels like only a matter of time, doesn’t it? The bar for breakout pop stars assuming the A-list has obviously been raised this year with the ascents of Roan and Carpenter (and the comeback of Charli XCX), so I don’t think she’s quite there yet — but damn if she isn’t starting to check those boxes left and right at this point. Why wasn’t she performing on the VMAs, again?
4. Of the three songs, which do you see having the most endurance on the chart? Will any of them still be on the Hot 100 ten weeks from now?
Rania Aniftos: I feel like I’m being cynical, but none of them have longterm potential for me. Maybe “All Red” depending on what he releases in the next few months, but I feel like all three of these artists have something better on the way.
Katie Bain: The Weeknd to me has the strongest chance here, given his massive global star power, the fact that this is a buzzy moment in terms of the song marking the start of a new chapter and the fact that “Dancing In th Flames ” is just catchy and kind of broadly palatable.
Jason Lipshutz: I refuse to underestimate a big, mainstream-ready single by The Weeknd — a man who, by his own admission, comes alive in the fall time. “Dancing in the Flames” won’t reach “Blinding Lights” levels of commercial success, but The Weeknd has the cross-platform pedigree to power a lead single into hit status, and I think “Flames” contains the hook necessary to endure on the Hot 100 for a while. When we start switching our playlists over to Christmas music, I’d bet that “Flames” is among the non-holiday singles populating the chart.
Michael Saponara: The Weeknd and Tate McRae will still be holding strong on the Hot 100 with “Dancing in the Flames” leading the pack. There’s a chance Carti is hanging around too, but let’s see if he actually ends up delivering on his long-awaited WLR follow-up, which has been rumored to finally arrive in the coming weeks.
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s “It’s OK, I’m OK” — that seems to be the song that’s getting the best fan response, and it seems like it’s hitting at the right time in the right post-Short N’ Sweet spot to get picked up on radio. I don’t know if it’ll have “Greedy”-like legs but I think it’ll be around for a bit.
5. While all three songs make strong bows, none of them reach the top 10 — and indeed, the only new top 10 hit we’ve gotten this month has been Sabrina Carpenter’s “Taste.” After such a competitive period on the Hot 100 this spring and early summer, why do you think activity at the top has really slowed to a crawl in the late summer and early autumn?
Rania Aniftos: Not to bring TikTok into this, but the same few songs have been circulating the platform for the past few months, and it’s the songs that are currently in the Hot 100 top 10. I fear it’s going to take a new round of viral hits on TikTok for us to see some shake-ups on the Hot 100, which typically happens toward the end of the year anyway.
Katie Bain: There’s been so much hype and kismet around the Sabrina, Shaboozy and Chapell juggernauts, not to mention the barrage of hits by mainstays like Jelly Roll, Morgan Wallen, Kendrick, etc. that just seems hard to match, despite the caliber of the names involved in this week’s chart.
Jason Lipshutz: We were gifted a generally excellent slate of summertime singles in 2024, with songs like “Espresso,” “Good Luck, Babe!,” “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Not Like Us” all ranking among the most memorable hits of the year. And once they landed in the top 10, they kept going within the upper tier of the chart — and many weeks later, pop listeners still aren’t sick of them. That will change in due time, as we receive a new crop of fall hits, but the static top 10 speaks to the quality of the current biggest hits, songs designed to entertain for multiple months instead of a couple weeks.
Michael Saponara: With a flurry of superstars dropping throughout the first half of the year, they took up a lot of oxygen on the Hot 100 to the point I think we just reached a point of saturation with some of these anthems being such dominant forces that just refuse to give up chart real estate. I believe it will eventually cycle through and there will be newcomers in quarter four.
Andrew Unterberger: Carpenter’s album has been the only really splashy album debut this month (not counting Travis Scott’s reissued mixtape), and too many big songs right now have maintained their streaming numbers while amassing major radio support — making it tough for anything new without major, major momentum behind it to break through. We could really use a left-field viral smash or two this autumn, but it appears we may have run dry on those for the time being.
Two weeks ago, Linkin Park fans had no clue if they would ever hear totally new music from the band again. This week, not only is the band back playing arena shows, but they also have a brand-new single — and it’s their highest-peaking Billboard Hot 100 hit in 15 years.
“The Emptiness Machine” is the first release from the legendary nu-metal band with their new lineup — including new lead singer Emily Armstrong, who replaces the late great Chester Bennington, and new drummer Colin Brittain, who takes the sticks from Rob Bourdon after two decades as the band’s timekeeper. The new song debuts at No. 21 on this week’s Hot 100 (dated Sept. 21), LP’s highest placement on the chart since Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen soundtrack single “New Divide” reached No. 6 in 2009.
Why has the song achieved such quick success? And how much does it feel like classic Linkin Park? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. “The Emptiness Machine” debuts at No. 21 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week. Is that higher, lower, or about where you would’ve expected it to land in its first week?
Anna Chan: No. 21 feels about right. Curiosity about new singer Emily Armstrong was bound to generate a bunch of streams anyway, whether from longtime fans of the band, or younger listeners who have grown up with the more recent batch of strong female hard rock vocalists.
Kyle Denis: Honestly, higher. It’s not like hard rock songs are proving to be first-week Hot 100 smashes in this era and there’s always going to be some skepticism when a band announces a new lead singer, especially one who has to fill the massive shoes of the late Chester Bennington. I’d say that a No. 21 is a massive win for Linkin Park.
Josh Glicksman: It’s generally in line with what I expected. Had “Lost” not debuted at No. 38 last year, I may have guessed Linkin Park coming in a bit lower with “The Emptiness Machine,” but given the precedent — combined with the large amount of buzz surrounding the mysterious countdown clock on the band’s official website in the days leading to its release — a nice bump up from the former track makes sense. And with the new single arriving Thursday night, some of the initial plays fell into the prior tracking week, likely costing it a few slots higher on the chart.
Jason Lipshutz: Higher. Although “Lost” debuted in the top 40 of the Hot 100 last year, the excavated Meteora track came from one of their most commercially successful eras; the fact that “The Emptiness Machine” debuted even higher, with a new co-vocalist helping lead the way and at a time when hard rock songs seldom make the upper reaches of the chart, is a pretty startling development, and speaks to the fan enthusiasm around the return of Linkin Park. The band likely believed in the song’s potential as a rock and alternative chart mainstay, but scoring a No. 21 debut on the Hot 100 is a dream scenario for their comeback.
Andrew Unterberger: Unquestionably higher. It’s really, really hard for a legacy rock band to even crack the Hot 100 these days, let alone land in the top 25 the week’s top debut. It helps that Linkin Park is a little younger (and still sounds significantly more contemporary) than fellow veteran rock radio mainstays like Green Day, Foo Fighters and Red Hot Chili Peppers, but even still, a No. 21 debut for a new song — with a new lead singer who a lot of LP fans probably didn’t even know existed two weeks ago, no less — is very, very impressive.
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2. Between “Machine” and 2023’s rediscovered Meteora-era cut “Lost,” it’s two top 40 hits now for Linkin Park this decade — already matching their total for the entire 2010s. Why do you think Linkin Park have managed to maintain such high levels of interest when most other popular rock bands who have been around for 20-plus years struggle to land such chart placements?
Anna Chan: “Lost” had the benefit of featuring the late, great Chester Bennington’s vocals, something that, as co-frontperson Mike Shinoda himself told our very own Jason Lipshutz, fans had been asking the band for “for years.” Give, and ye shall receive the streams. Then a mere year after the track’s arrival and seven after Bennington’s death, a woman steps in as co-lead singer for the rocker who was No. 34 on Billboard‘s Best Rock Singers list with a new song, and people were going to tune in, whether to rejoice at the return of the band, the aforementioned curiosity, or simply to find something to complain about, whether rightfully so or not. That’s a lot of drama — let’s not even get into the Scientology of it all — that can’t be duplicated. (And please don’t get any ideas, Soundgarden.)
Kyle Denis: Outside of them being one of the best popular rock bands on their era, I think Linkin Park has maintained such high levels of interest because they’ve sort of naturally let different pockets of music intersect with the band’s music without sacrificing or compromising their foundational sound. They have timeless crossover smashes (“In the End,” “Numb”) and projects that brought them further into the hip-hop space (their underrated 2004 Collision Course EP with Jay-Z), but it never felt like the ethos of the band had shifted in relentless pursuit of mainstream commercial wins. In that vein, their commitment to rock continues to feed audiences who may not satisfied by how pop-facing popular rock bands of the 2010s are/have become.
Josh Glicksman: It’s not easily quantifiable, but Linkin Park has married its following of the deeply devoted fanbase it created in the first decade of the 2000s with Gen Z listeners curating their own tastes in music. Some of that may have to do with the band having larger-scale, longer-lasting hits than its counterparts; it could be helped by Mike Shinoda leaning into working with artists of the next generation; and it certainly could be fueled by fans wanting to preserve and honor the legacy of Chester Bennington. Whatever it is, clearly the appetite for Linkin Park is as strong as ever.
Jason Lipshutz: To me, the chart success of “Lost” last year and “The Emptiness Machine” this month can be chalked up to a combination of the quality of the songs, enduring interest from a huge fan base, and a historical re-assessment of Linkin Park. While “Lost” is classic Linkin Park, an electro-rock anthem buoyed by Chester Bennington’s singular voice, “The Emptiness Machine” kicks off a new era with passion and personality; they both speak to different factions of the same fan base, who have remained loyal to the band for the seven years between Bennington’s tragic death and the recent reformation. And the band’s sonic evolution across their discography has produced an enviable supply of hits and signature moments; I don’t doubt that a lot of listeners who weren’t paying attention during Linkin Park’s heyday (or were too young to do so) streamed “Lost” and “The Emptiness Machine,” and helped turn each into a top 40 hit.
Andrew Unterberger: Linkin Park just still make a little more sense in the streaming era than most of those bands, a virtue of its hybrid (yes, yes) sound and heavy production. That, combined with both the songs being very solid — and with the devastating and cruel way in which the band’s original run came to an abrupt end in 2017 — means that perhaps we were silly to underestimate the commercial potential for these tastes of new LP in the first place.
3. While “Lost” ended up being a majorly enduring rock radio hit, it only spent two weeks total on the Hot 100. Do you think the run for “Machine” on the chart will be similarly short-lived, or will it have greater legs?
Anna Chan: Let me shake my Magic 8 Ball, because I have no idea due to the confusing combo of nostalgia (yay!) and criticism (boo!). But since you asked, my guess is the chart run will be short-lived because the curiosity around Armstrong will fade. And while fans may have been elated about the band’s return after a lengthy hiatus, the quick backlash to having a singer with ties to convicted rapist Danny Masterson may hurt their overall momentum. (For the record, Armstrong has since addressed the issue, saying that she shouldn’t have supported Masterson at a court appearance — noting, “I misjudged him” — and that she hasn’t spoken to him since, and doesn’t condone any abuse or violence against women.)
Kyle Denis: I think off the basis of “Machine” being the lead single for a new album, it should have more juice behind it, and thus score a few more weeks on the Hot 100 than “Lost.”
Josh Glicksman: I don’t expect it to hang around too much longer than “Lost” on the Hot 100, though it may eke out another few weeks. That said, I fully expect the song to similarly dominate rock radio for many months to come, with the single soaring to No. 1 on the Rock & Alternative Airplay chart following its first full tracking week. “Lost” spent 20 weeks atop that chart; I’d guess that “The Emptiness Machine” will at least match that total.
Jason Lipshutz: “The Emptiness Machine” sounded like a straightforward rocker built around the dueling voices of Mike Shinoda and Emily Armstrong to me upon first listen, but the single has grown on me rapidly — I love how its momentum snowballs over the first two verses and choruses, pulls back during the harmonized bridge, then goes for the jugular on the final hook. Although I don’t think it will maintain its Hot 100 peak for long, I do believe its run on the chart will surpass that of “Lost,” as streaming audiences help bolster the early adoption from rock radio. The No. 21 debut defied the odds, and I think the breadth of its Hot 100 run will do the same.
Andrew Unterberger: Its greater debut and more interesting backstory might grant it another few weeks, but I don’t really see this being a much-longer-lasting Hot 100 hit, no. Its sales and streams already seem to be tapering off — though to be fair, not as quickly as with some other splashy-debuting new releases — and it’s unlikely pop radio is coming to swoop in with this song anytime soon.
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4. Do you think “Machine” captures the spirit of classic Linkin Park? Does Emily Armstrong seem like a logical fit as the band’s new frontwoman so far?
Anna Chan: It’s too early to judge based on just one song whether or not she’s a good fit. However, this rock-leaning music fan is eager to hear more from Armstrong. Her first verse in “The Emptiness Machine” didn’t grab me, but when she gets to the chorus and lets her raw, guttural vocals come out? Wooo! I’m letting Linkin Park cut me open just to jam more music into my ears.
Kyle Denis: For me, Chester’s voice is such a quintessential part of the band’s sound, that it still feels odd not hearing him. Nonetheless, I like hearing Emily on the record, it’s fun hearing her push her voice further than you’d expect before giving into a growl or a scream. She’s able to balance vulnerability and high-octane vocal thrills pretty effortlessly, which makes her an effective new frontwoman.
Josh Glicksman: Yes! It feels refreshed and modern, but perfectly at home in the canon of everything that has endeared the band to fans for the past 25 years. Armstrong feels like a logical fit as the band’s new frontwoman — and, importantly, she’s both honoring its legacy while giving the music her own touch, as she discussed in her Billboard cover story: “Going into these [older] songs, by a singular voice that’s beloved by so many people — it’s like, ‘How do I be myself in this, but also carry on the emotion and what he brought in this band?’ … There is a passion to it that I’m hoping I can fill.”
Jason Lipshutz: What I love about this new iteration of Linkin Park is that songs like “The Emptiness Machine” exist in the same universe as the band’s biggest hits, but expand it into new terrain instead of trying recapture any past magic. That’s why Armstrong works so well as a new co-vocalist: she can sing the hits in a live setting, but instead of functioning as a Chester Bennington impersonator, she helps the band grow in a different direction and balance out Shinoda in striking, unexpected ways. As someone who has heard more of From Zero than just “The Emptiness Machine,” I can say that I was impressed with the balancing act that the band pulls off — honoring their past without re-creating it, harkening back to earlier eras while making something new.
Andrew Unterberger: Ironically, the least classic Linkin Park-seeming part of this song is Mike Shinoda singing (not rapping) on the first verse — when Armstrong comes in on the second verse (and especially when she kicks in with the chorus), it feels almost like a correction to the natural order of things. Maybe that was the plan all along; if so it seems to have worked!
5. With Linkin Park and Oasis reuniting in 2024, who’s another long-dormant rock band who you’d love to see get back together in the not too distant future?
Anna Chan: What’s your definition of “long-dormant”? Because for greedy ol’ me, Nine Inch Nails has been too busy with the movie scores as of late, and I need them to get back in the recording studio and on the road. (And no, that 2022 tour that hit only 10 U.S. cities doesn’t count in my book, while the Cold and Black and Infinite tour was six long years ago.) I’d also appreciate if Rage Against the Machine would reunite and finish up the tour they cut short in 2022 (this political climate is begging for them) — or if The Cure (who might be teasing new music?) would do another trek so I can have a shot at tickets next time around.
Kyle Denis: Wishful thinking, but The White Stripes!
Josh Glicksman: Talking Heads. Sure, they’ve notably rebuffed a reunion several times in recent months, but give the people what they want! Even just a small handful of new singles will suffice.
Jason Lipshutz: As of this July, Jack White has released exactly as many studio albums under his own name as he did alongside Meg White as The White Stripes. It is time to tip the scales once again — we simply need the duo back, and the first White Stripes album since 2007.
Andrew Unterberger: There have whispers about Radiohead reassembling of late — still pretty quiet ones, but loud enough to remind me how it’s been eight years since their last album and six since their last tour. (And how they’re, y’know, one of the best bands ever.)
The results are in: Post Malone’s “I Had Some Help,” featuring a big assist from Morgan Wallen, is the official Billboard song of the summer.
The country crossover smash, which ruled the Songs of the Summer chart for all 14 weeks of its 2024 run, held off a hard-charging second-place finisher in Shaboozey’s nine-week Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — the second straight year that country titles finished in the chart’s top two spots, following Wallen’s “Last Night” and Luke Combs’ “Fast Car” cover claiming Nos. 1 and 2 in 2023, respectively. Meanwhile, Kendrick Lamar takes the No. 3 spot with “Not Like Us,” while Sabrina Carpenter lands twice within the top 10, with “Espresso” (No. 4) and “Please Please Please” No. 6.
How closely does this year’s chart align with our own anecdotal impressions of what the songs of the summer were? And which summer-defining songs and artists are notably missing from the final tally, if any? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Post Malone and Morgan Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” ranks as Billboard’s Song of the Summer. On a scale from 1-10, how would you rate it both as a summer song, and as a defining song of THIS particular summer?
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Katie Atkinson: I’m going to give it a 10 as a summer song. To prove its warm-weather bona fides, look no further than the music video, which ends with Post and Morgan singing from a truck bed during a parking-lot party as a massive American flag waves above them and fireworks take off in the night sky. It was basically tailor-made for a Fourth of July tailgate. Now for this summer in particular, I’m going to go with a 9. The top two songs from the past two summer charts have all been country, so a Nashville party-starter at No. 1 is proof-positive of the genre’s incredible popularity right now. I’m only shaving off one point because Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” was my particular song of this summer and it just has that extra dose of sunshine – or extra shot of you-know-what.
Eric Renner Brown: “I Had Some Help” sounds like a hot, humid summer afternoon – it’s a 9 as a summer song. As a reflection of 2024, the song feels both in and out of sync with the broader music landscape. On the one hand, country had a massive summer, driven in part by crossover successes and new breakouts; as the lead single from Post’s big foray into country music, “I Had Some Help” is of a piece with that. On the other hand, Wallen’s presence takes me back to last summer – when the country star was even more dominant – and both him and Post feel out of sync with other major pop storylines from this summer like Sabrina, Chappell and Charli. I’d give it a 7 as the defining song of this summer specifically.
Kyle Denis: I’d say it’s a solid 8 as both a summer song and a defining song of this particular summer. In my opinion, the entire top five of Billboard’s Song of the Summer ranking was pretty spot-on. All of those songs are representative of what I heard and danced to while outside all summer. I don’t think any one song reigns over the others except maybe “Not Like Us.” This summer felt more driven by moments (Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter phenomena, country music’s comeback on the singles chart, Brat Summer, Glorilla and Bossman Dlow’s respective 2024 runs etc.) than individual records.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7 and a 6. “I Had Some Help” certainly has a summertime tempo and sing-along chorus, inviting raised cups across backyard gatherings and beach hangs alike. And it was big this season, if not ubiquitous; that speaks more to the dissolution of the monoculture that makes it harder for a single song to act inescapable across every platform, but also to how its run at No. 1 on the Hot 100 was not the longest of this summer, coming in second to “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” Artists like Shaboozey, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and Kendrick Lamar were just as present this summer as Morgan and Post, but the chart points worked out so that “I Had Some Help” finished above them all.
Andrew Unterberger: A 9 song of the summer, and a 7 defining song on this summer. Both numbers raised at least a point by a friend’s recent barbecue where the song was played no fewer than four times (and went off each time).
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2. The SotS ranking is neatly bookended by country – both by its top two songs (“I Had Some Help” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”) and its bottom two (Luke Combs’ “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” and Dasha’s “Austin”) – while other songs by Zach Bryan, Morgan Wallen and Kane Brown fall between them. Why do you think this was such a country-heavy summer? Did it feel that way to you anecdotally?
Katie Atkinson: It’s not just a country-heavy summer; it’s been a country-heavy past two years! But there is something about those four summer 2024 songs you mentioned that makes them perfect for a BBQ or pool party playlist – and they’ve all been in rotation for me all summer. I would also argue that three of the four (excluding Luke Combs’ twangy Twisters track) transcend genre, because I’ve heard them played in places I’ve never heard country before. So I think the crossover appeal did a lot of the heavy lifting.
Eric Renner Brown: For one, it’s an election year! Nothing gets those patriotic juices flowing – and the country music blaring – like candidates posturing over who loves the stars and stripes more. On top of that, next-gen genre stars like Wallen and Brown have finally solidified their spot atop country music while major non-country artists like Beyoncé and Post have given the genre most cultural cachet among yeehaw-skeptical audiences (Stereogum’s Chris DeVille even astutely noted that Sabrina’s album was, in a sense, “an awesome Kacey Musgraves album.”) Still, the basic fact remains that country is simply massive in many parts of the country; all summers are “country-heavy” summers, to an extent.
Kyle Denis: I think we’re reached the final stage of country music’s mainstream comeback to the top of Hot 100 with the way pop-facing artists and listeners are not just accepting, but also intentionally seeking out country elements in their music. This summer we’ve had both straight country songs (Combs, Malone/Wallen) and country-infused pop tunes (Sabrina Carpenter’s “Please Please Please,” for example) reach the Hot 100’s highest heights.
Anecdotally, country has less of a presence than the respective single runs of Kendrick Lamar, GloRilla and Bossman Dlow, but the genre was certainly a sound that was expected to pop up at some point during a night out or an evening drive. I wouldn’t have been able to say that even three years ago.
Jason Lipshutz: We are seeing the full integration of country music into streaming platforms in real time: while genres like hip-hop and pop more naturally commanded Spotify and Apple Music during the 2010s as country listeners focused on radio blocks, that consumer habit has gradually shifted, and the country’s big summer hits are much bigger than they were a decade ago. The various personalities within the genre have certainly helped grease the wheels of this commercial explosion — Wallen, Bryan and Combs in particular are no-doubt superstars at this point, and all have prolific streaks — but the way that they are commanding daily streaming playlists is the key to understanding the past couple Songs of the Summer charts.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if country is really towering over the mainstream the way our charts sometimes seem to imply, but I think it’s true that country always has a major radio presence — and more now than ever, given how many songs are crossing over to pop radio — and now it has finally fully caught up on streaming as well. With that kind of foothold in those two mediums, when a song really pops off, there’s really no limit to how big it can get, or how long it can stay that big for.
3. The only artist with two songs in the top 10 this year is Sabrina Carpenter: “Espresso” (No. 4) & “Please Please Please” (No. 6). Carpenter was unquestionably one of the defining pop presences of the season, but she vote-split a little with her multiple huge hits — do you think we’re getting to a point where we should be having an Artist of the Summer discussion as much as a Song of the Summer one? Would it have easily been Carpenter if we did?
Katie Atkinson: Please please please make it happen, Billboard charts team! It would be fascinating to see if we used our Artist 100 methodology just for the summer months whether it would have been Sabrina or maybe Morgan who would wear the summer 2024 crown, but I do think there’s value in seeing which musician rules the summer, not just what music.
Eric Renner Brown: The Song of the Summer conversation has expanded so much that sometimes I think it’s strayed too far from its genesis: The single omnipresent song that was inescapable at barbecues, beaches, and bars during the year’s warmest months. I wouldn’t say we shouldn’t have an Artist of the Summer discussion, but it feels like a different thing that doesn’t necessarily correlate to the Song of the Summer.
In fact, I don’t think having the Song of the Summer would necessarily be a prerequisite for being Artist of the Summer. No Charli XCX song achieved the cultural saturation that Sabrina’s big hits did this summer – and yet, Charli was the one getting promoted by one of the two major party candidates for president, and the one who had celebrities and influencers doing the “Apple” dance on TikTok. All that to say, no, I don’t think it would have easily been Sabrina – it would’ve been Charli, or even Chappell Roan, who felt far more present as an individual than Sabrina did.
Kyle Denis: I think I touched on it with one of my earlier answers, but artist of the year seems like a more accurate unit of measurement for this particular summer. I’m not sure Carpenter has it sewn up tho, Chappell Roan and Charli XCX certainly have some skin in the game – as do Lamar, Billie Eilish, GloRilla and Bossman Dlow.
Jason Lipshutz: Probably — although you could make a case that Kendrick Lamar would stand alongside her thanks to his avalanche of diss tracks, and Chappell Roan is right there too with “Good Luck, Babe!” all the various slow-burn smashes that she has accrued. Even Post Malone, who finished atop the chart with “I Had Some Help,” had another song, “Fortnight” with Taylor Swift, that finished in the top 20. This summer was full of artists who notched multiple smashes, instead of being satisfied with just one — although, with her two songs as dominant as they have been, Carpenter would probably earn my vote in the Artist of the Summer election.
Andrew Unterberger: It does seem to me that this summer was defined more by artists than by songs — and that while the Post Malone and Shaboozey songs were both enormous, I’m not sure the respective artists behind them really had an outsized seasonal presence otherwise — so yeah, I do think it would be interesting to have a separate discussion about that distinction. If there was an AotS debate to be had, Carpenter would certainly be in the mix, along with Charli XCX, Kendrick Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter and probably Taylor Swift.
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4. What song (or artist) is absent from this year’s top 20 that you think was really necessary for understanding the summer in popular music?
Katie Atkinson: 100% Charli XCX. How can we end Brat Summer without a single Brat song on our summer chart? All these songs had an absolute chokehold on TikTok, but I think the one that should be on our chart to properly represent summer 2024 is “360,” which debuted on the Hot 100 in June and peaked at No. 41 in August – aka, a summer moment.
Eric Renner Brown: It’s Charli, baby! When you’ve got Jake Tapper unpacking the cultural significance of your album on CNN, you’re central to popular music.
Kyle Denis: Forgive me for invoking their names yet again, but GloRilla (“Yeah Glo,” “All Dere,” “Wanna Be,” “Bop,” “Finesse,” “TGIF”) and Bossman Dlow (“Get In With Me,” “Talk My Shit,” “Mr. Pot Scraper,” “Finesse,” “Shake Dat Ass,” “2 Slippery,” “Big One”).
Jason Lipshutz: “Apple” by Charli XCX. Although Brat Summer is not represented on the Songs of the Summer chart, Charli’s latest album was a lightning rod of interest and chatter, and “Apple” best crystallizes its viral reach, an immaculate pop gem that launched countless TikTok-ready movements. Runner-up goes to the “Girl, So Confusing” redo with Lorde, which is possibly the most fully realized pop remix of the 2020s.
Andrew Unterberger: Beyond Charli XCX — the obvious answer, since the season was basically renamed in her latest album’s likeness — it’s probably also worth mentioning the people’s champ Tinashe, whose early viral success with “Nasty” was seemingly willed to life by the collective consciousness of Pop Twitter. When it was clear the song was gonna hit the Hot 100, that was the first time I remember thinking that this was gonna end up being a pretty special summer for pop music. And it did!
5. We don’t have a Songs of the Autumn chart at Billboard (yet) – but if you could make a personal pick for a new and/or rising song to emerge as an early frontrunner for the late-calendar months, which would it be?
Katie Atkinson: After the unexpected folky resurgence that started the year (Benson Boone, Hozier, etc.), it feels like an artist like Mark Ambor could keep climbing up the chart as temperatures drop. His breakout hit “Belong Together” has so far peaked at No. 74 on the Hot 100, but with a recent push at radio and the release of his debut album Rockwood last month, his music could be soundtracking more than a few pumpkin spice latte runs this fall.
Eric Renner Brown: There’s no way Kendrick doesn’t put out another new song between now and his Super Bowl halftime show gig in a few months, right? For a Song of the Autumn, I’d put my money on what he or another Song of the Summer chart presence who I have a feeling might drop a fresh loosie –Chappell Roan – puts out. (This is also a referendum on the fact that some of the season’s A-list releases, including Halsey, Katy Perry, and Shawn Mendes, don’t exactly seem poised to launch a song into the upper range of the Hot 100.)
Kyle Denis: It would make my heart smile if any of the following songs got some love this fall: “Nissan Altima” (Doechii), “Sweep It Up” (Coco Jones), “Blick Sum” (Latto), “Lonely Is the Muse” (Halsey) and “Last of My Kind” (Shaboozey & Paul Cauthen).
Jason Lipshutz: None of us have heard The Weeknd’s “Dancing in the Flames,” his new single arriving this Friday — but lest we forget, Mr. Tesfaye comes alive in the fall time. I’m expecting to hear that sensual croon while sipping my pumpkin spice latte.
Andrew Unterberger: Can Pop Twitter do it again? If so, look to Addison Rae’s “Diet Pepsi,” a growing popheads favorite, to be one of the biggest songs of 2024 before year’s end.
It’s been a massive year for new releases from huge artists — and with the first-week returns for her Short n’ Sweet album, Sabrina Carpenter has now proven herself as big as nearly any of ’em.
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The new LP — officially Carpenter’s sixth, but just her second since leaving the Disney-owned Hollywood Records for Island — launches atop the Billboard 200 (dated Sept. 17) this week with 362,000 first-week units, making it the year’s third-biggest bow (after Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department and Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter). Meanwhile, the album launches all 10 of its brand new tracks onto the top half of the Hot 100 — where pre-release singles “Espresso” and “Please Please Please” have long lived — led by the No. 2 entrance of new single “Taste.”
How did Sabrina Carpenter work her way up to these A-list numbers? And what do we think of Short n’ Sweet beyond the big hits? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Sabrina Carpenter scores her best week (and then some) with 362,000 first-week units for Short n’ Sweet – the third-best first-week mark of the year for any artist — while also charting all 12 tracks within the Hot 100’s top 50. On a scale from 1-10, how big a triumph are those first-week stats for Carpenter?
Hannah Dailey: That’s an absolute 10, especially considering that before this era, she hadn’t even broken into the top 20 of either chart. She’s worked for so long for this moment and played all her cards exactly right this year to build hype leading up to the Short n’ Sweet era. It’s an incredible feat, and she and her team should be very proud.
Stephen Daw: 10, easily. Had this just been her first No. 1 album, this moment would have already been a pretty big deal for Sabrina — to have Short n’ Sweet rake in such massive numbers and debut all of its songs within the chart’s top 50 makes it a monumental success for her.
Kristin Robinson: 10! I don’t think any artist could ask for a better roll out than this one. Every new single/focus track has been as big if not bigger than the one before it. The music videos captured the cultural zeitgeist, and she has become an artist that pretty much everyone has been rooting for. Any artist, whether they’ve been famous for 10 years or one year, would be lucky to have so much success. I think her good fortune will continue as well. If you check TikTok, it seems that fans are not just connecting to the top songs — they are obsessing over the deeper cuts too. That is always a great sign that the full album has legs.
Andrew Unterberger: It is indeed a 10. If you told me a year ago (hell, if you told me six months ago) that Sabrina had posted a 36,200-unit week in her new album’s first frame — literally one-tenth of what she ended up doing with Short n’ Sweet — I would’ve said that was a great showing for her. To outpace some of the artists who have been the very pace-setters for some of the music Carpenter is making in this album is just jaw-dropping, and an unqualified win for all involved.
Christine Werthman: I’m withholding the 10 for if she’d bested everyone this year, but I’ll still go big with a 9. The numbers alone are impressive, but the biggest triumph to me is that this is her sixth studio album, and she’s finally breaking through in a massive way. It is far from the norm nowadays for most artists to toil away and eventually reach this level of success, especially in pop. Props to her and similarly long-building labelmate Chappell Roan for sticking with it.
2. In a year full of major releases from major pop stars – Billie Eilish, Ariana Grande, Post Malone, Ye, many others – Carpenter’s 2024 first-week number passes everyone outside of pop’s arguable two contemporary leading lights, Taylor Swift and Beyoncé. What is the biggest reason you think SnS was able to outperform so many huge releases, at just 12 tracks with no features?
Hannah Dailey: She worked meticulously to make sure that people would have every reason to tune in once Short n’ Sweet dropped, from capitalizing on her clicky romance with Barry Keoghan to keeping her branding focused and consistent with what’s been working for her this past year. She also chose three excellent singles to lead the album — “Espresso,” “Please Please Please” and “Taste” — and paired them with music videos that allowed her personality and charisma to shine through. All of this made for a really fresh, polished rollout that followed a more traditional pop star format that people seemed to really resonate with.
Stephen Daw: It ultimately boils down to the joint success stories of “Espresso” and “Please Please Please,” I think. Timing is tricky in the modern music business, especially with how capricious viral success can be on the charts. But the stars really aligned for Sabrina — after years building up her reputation as pop music’s next main character, she managed to score her first two top five hits on the Hot 100 within a month of one another. Once she had that momentum going, there was almost no way to stop her from storming the charts like this.
Kristin Robinson: I think first and foremost, the songs are well-crafted, upbeat and infectious. This should come as no surprise, given the number of hitmakers that helped her put it together. Then secondly, you can tell Sabrina put in the work to get here. These kinds of successes are never an accident: It requires extreme effort and dedication on the artist’s part to constantly try to stay in front of their audiences. I don’t think we got nearly as many interviews, music videos, live shows, festival sets, promotional bits, etc. from Billie, Ariana, Post and Ye.
Andrew Unterberger: Sabrina has just nailed all of the small things over the course of the past six months — everything from the music videos to the release schedule to the live performances to specific lyrical details — in a way that built momentum organically but purposefully leading up to Short n’ Sweet. And perhaps most importantly, in the weeks leading up to the album, she pulled back a little: It never felt like the album had come out before the album actually came out, which is a trap a lot of her peers can’t help themselves from falling into. (Well, her one-time peers anyway, her current peer list is rapidly dwindling.)
Christine Werthman: Perhaps the answer is in the title: Short n’ Sweet. Although, to play my own contrarian, just because an album is short doesn’t mean it’ll be an easy listen. The key is that Carpenter gives the people what they want — quippy one-liners, bedroom eyes, vocal trills — and while she might vary the packaging (“Coincidence,” “Bed Chem,” “Slim Pickins”) those elements are always present. After six albums, Carpenter has homed in on her strengths, and these songs play to them over 36 delightful minutes.
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3. “Taste” leads the way among the set’s newly debuting tracks on this week’s Hot 100, debuting at No. 2 and sandwiching itself in between the peaks of her two established smashes, “Espresso” (No. 3) and “Please Please Please” (No. 1). Will it ultimately be as big as those two long-lasting hits, or do you think it will fade quicker after its bow?
Hannah Dailey: I definitely think “Taste” will be a lasting hit alongside “Espresso” and “Please Please Please.” It’s catchy and fun, the music video is killer, and it already has a bunch of traction on TikTok. Like it or not, the Sabrina chart domination is definitely going to continue in the near future.
Stephen Daw: I think “Taste” is going to linger. The twangy, country-adjacent sound is perfectly in line with what audiences have been playing on repeat lately, it’s got a viral music video that fans are still obsessing over and it carries that same earworm songwriting that made both “Espresso” and “Please” burrow into the pop culture lexicon. I don’t think it’s going to be bigger than either of her previously established hits, but I can see “Taste” enjoying a long shelf life in the upper echelons of the Hot 100.
Kristin Robinson: Well, I’ve been wrong before. I thought there was no way “Please Please Please” would get as big as “Espresso” and I was wrong. I wouldn’t be shocked if this did the best of the three because the momentum is so strong right now.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s already a smash, and is gonna be around for a while. It’s the perfect third single to follow a pair of pre-release smashes: feeling simultaneously of a piece and totally separate from the first two, and already familiar-sounding from the first listen. And it’s very good, which usually helps.
Christine Werthman: “Taste” was already one of my favorite songs on the album, even before I watched the wonderfully unhinged video co-starring Jenna Ortega. The strength of the song on its own, coupled with the visual, will keep it around, as will the approaching Halloween season. Best spooky videos list, anyone?
4. While Carpenter has certainly established herself as a brilliant singles artist, does the rest of Short n’ Sweet live up to its hits to you? Is there anything you’d like to hear her do more or less of in the future?
Hannah Dailey: The other songs on Short n’ Sweet feel very compatible with the album’s singles: flirty, fun and sassy. I do think she needs to move on from the hypersexualized-short-girl schtick after this album, though, or else I worry she’ll put herself in a box that people might grow wary of down the line.
Stephen Daw: Part of what makes Short n’ Sweet work as well as it does is the feeling throughout that Sabrina is having the best time making big pop songs fun again. Nothing feels too self-serious, even in the album’s down-tempo ballads. The only problem that comes with her focus on clever, cheeky songwriting is that the sound of some of her songs can fall to the wayside, making some of this album’s songs feel generic by comparison to her megahits. If Sabrina can keep her songwriting this sharp while putting an even bigger focus on honing what “her sound” is, then her career will be far from short and that much sweeter.
Kristin Robinson: I think there are strong songs on this album that are not singles — my favorite being “Sharpest Tool” – but it does trail off a little bit in quality towards the end. In the future, I would like to see her embracing her own style more. A number of these songs sound like ones that would’ve been pitched to Ariana Grande five years ago. “Slim Pickins” feels too Kacey Musgraves. While the songs are all well-written, this album can feel a bit derivative.
Andrew Unterberger: The first half of this album in particular is simply all killer — both in terms of every song hitting, and the ordering of them being perfectly paced. If it maybe tails off a tiny bit post-“Espresso…” well, gotta leave some room for improvement for her second album as a certified superstar.
Christine Werthman: Carpenter made a great pop album with high replay value. This isn’t one of those where you have to hold your breath and wait for the known hits because there are plenty more to discover — “Taste, “Good Graces,” “Juno” — even if they don’t all become chart-toppers. Though some of the slower songs might have you reaching for the skip button, she’ll jolt you awake with lyrics like, “jack off to lyrics by Leonard Cohen” on “Dumb & Poetic.” The woman is a wordsmith! If anything, I’d love to hear more 1990s rhythmic stuff from her like “Good Graces,” another new standout.
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5. Carpenter’s superstar resume is filling up more rapidly than even her biggest boosters could’ve predicted at the beginning of the year. What’s one thing she’s yet to check off there that you think would help further cement 2024 as Her Year?
Hannah Dailey: She’s already won over a larger audience, as well as proved her prowess commercially and on the charts. All that’s left for her to do, in my opinion, is show that she’s earned the respect of her peers and critics in the music industry by securing a Grammy nomination this November. Once she has Recording Academy recognition, her status as a Main Pop Girl will absolutely be cemented.
Stephen Daw: If Sabrina can get one major city to temporarily rename itself in her honor during her upcoming tour, I feel like the Main Pop Girl checklist will be pretty much complete.
Kristin Robinson: The obvious answer is some Grammy wins in February. I also think having one more hit after “Taste” though would put this album over the top as one akin to Future Nostalgia by Dua Lipa or SOS by SZA – both albums that just had hit after hit.
Andrew Unterberger: Before we start worrying about Carpenter filling her awards mantle, how about getting a super-dope award show performance from her first? She’ll have her chance next week at the MTV Video Music Awards, a stage that the true pop greats of the last 40 years have always embraced the opportunity to make their mark on. I hope she brings it, and I have little doubt that she will.
Christine Werthman: How about a big-name collab? But instead of going for a pop OG, Carpenter should link with fellow 2024 queen Chappell Roan. Since Carpenter and Roan are already friends, labelmates and cheeky pop connoisseurs, I think a collab between those two would create a huge moment to close out the year.
Post Malone donned a cowboy hat and dominated the charts: on this week’s Billboard 200 (dated Aug. 31), new album F-1 Trillion blasts in at No. 1 with 250,000 equivalent album units earned in the U.S. in the week ending Aug. 22, according to Luminate. F-1 Trillion marks Post Malone’s third career No. 1 album, but notably, the full-length is a full-on country project that sounds far removed from his last two chart-toppers.
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A slew of country greats helped Post Malone with the project — several of which score debuts alongside Posty on this week’s Hot 100, where 18 songs from F-1 Trillion bow, including every collaboration. “I Had Some Help” with Morgan Wallen remains at the head of the pack, though, logging another week at No. 2 on the Hot 100, after previously spending six nonconsecutive weeks at No. 1.
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What’s the secret behind Post Malone’s country switch-up? And what genre should he explore next? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. F-1 Trillion debuts with 250,000 equivalent album units — more than twice as many as the debut total for last year’s Austin album (113,000), although a far cry from 2019’s Hollywood’s Bleeding (489,000). On a scale of 1-10, how are you feeling about this debut if you’re Post?
Jessica Nicholson: An 8. With this being his first official foray into the country genre (he’s posted covers of country songs online over the past several years), this is a great accomplishment, especially given that the solo tracks on his Long Bed extension of the album lean into elements of Texas swing, honky tonk and 2000s country, rather than only the rock and hip-hop-inflected country of his Morgan Wallen collab. Still, one would think the numbers would be a bit higher, given the slate of big-name collaborations proliferating the album.
Jason Lipshutz: A 9. Simply put, Post Malone got his groove back with F-1 Trillion, following a pair of albums that produced some solid hits but didn’t do enough to iterate on his earlier success. This country album was boosted by a big hit in “I Had Some Help,” but a debut of 250,000 equivalent album units indicates that Posty’s country change-up conjured interest beyond its lead single — fans wanted to explore this new side of his artistry, and he scored one of the biggest debuts of 2024. Maybe he never returns to the commercial peak of his Hollywood’s Bleeding numbers, but the performance of F-1 Trillion suggests that Post Malone’s time in the spotlight will persist well past that peak.
Katie Atkinson: 10. He went outside his typical lane, assembled The Avengers of country music, and came in to release week with a six-week Hot 100 No. 1 lead single. Honestly, what’s not to be happy about? This country pivot has been received with open arms by the music-buying public, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Post’s country era extends beyond one album.
Lyndsey Havens: You could say I’d be feeling… 1 trillion out of 10. Metrics aside, this is an artistic project that Texas native Post Malone has wanted to make for most of his career. And yes, while he collaborated with superstars and legends alike on Hollywood’s Bleeding, helping the pop-rock-rap album score such an impressive first-week debut, you could argue the features on F-1 mean a bit more. To have almost every heavy hitter across country music – including the queen herself, Dolly Parton – was surely the best stamp of approval Post could desire. Even more so than his first foray into the genre debuting at No. 1, Post made an album that the country community not only rallied behind wanted to be a part of. And that is well worth celebrating.
Melinda Newman: An 8. A No. 1 album is a No. 1 album, no matter what the sales/streaming numbers are. And after missing the mark with both Austin and 2022’s Twelve Carat Toothache, Post has to be happy to reach the summit again, even if, to paraphrase a popular song, he had some help. At the same time, there has to be a nagging twinge of doubt questioning if he can hit No. 1 as a solo artist, though the popularity of F-1 Trillion will undoubtedly propel his solo numbers. Plus, all the tracks charted on the Hot 100, thanks to streaming. He’s got to be thrilled by that.
2. With F-1 Trillion becoming Post Malone’s first No. 1 album since 2019 and “I Had Some Help” with Morgan Wallen leading the Hot 100 for six total weeks, are you surprised that his country pivot has been as successful as its chart rankings indicate?
Jessica Nicholson: No. He has made a strong showing of connecting with both the Nashville industry and with country music fans. His album includes collaborations with a range of country artists, highlighting his respect for the genre by including both modern-day hitmakers like Lainey Wilson, Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen, but also legends including Dolly Parton and Hank Williams, Jr. He wrote with Nashville writers for the album, and has showed up at nearly every Nashville country music venue possible, from the Grand Ole Opry to the Bluebird Café. But he’s also connected with fans through appearances at Stagecoach and his recent Marathon Music Works show — and for the country music audience, that intentionality in connecting with fans still goes a long way.
Jason Lipshutz: Not if you actually listened to “I Had Some Help,” and heard how naturally Post’s voice adapted to a country-pop sound alongside a Nashville superstar like Wallen. The ease with which he entered that lane suggested that he could maintain that stance for a full country album, especially one where he’d be flanked by established genre stars. And sure enough, F-1 Trillion is rife with guest stars that Posty can play off of, as well as a handful of solo tracks that were saved for the deluxe edition of the album. It was a foolproof formula for this project, and I’m not surprised that listeners have embraced it.
Katie Atkinson: Absolutely not. I remember assigning a story back in 2021 about all the times Post had “gone country.” It’s quaint to look back at that list, because the genre lines are so very blurred now – especially with a borderless artist like Post Malone – that all his country moments were so obviously inherent to him then and now. I mean, he’s from Texas, for starters. But the smartest thing he did with his first country outing is to get more than a dozen of the genre’s biggest stars to collaborate with him and co-sign his Nashville bona fides. Like, are you going to say this man isn’t country – because he has face tattoos, because he’s made rap music, etc., etc. – when Hank Williams Jr. says he is?
Lyndsey Havens: Not at all. The one thing I have learned from my years as a Post Malone fan is that he can’t really surprise us – he’s shown his range from the start. Take his debut album Stoney, a project on which his breakout hip-hop hit “White Iverson” fits perfectly alongside a warbly acoustic ballad like “Feeling Whitney” (in which he sings of putting on “a little Dwight” Yoakam). Plus, the first and only video Post has uploaded to the YouTube account created under his birth name, Austin Post, is a cover of Bob Dylan’s “Don’t Think Twice.” But more than any one genre, the thing that most foreshadowed Post’s pivot to country is his songwriting. And now, after years of honing those chops and building a network of Nashville’s hottest names, it’s no wonder he’s having such success.
Melinda Newman: Not at all. Country is having a moment (which many of us hope becomes a movement), and Post Malone has now become part of that. His timing was perfect, but if you talk to anyone in Nashville who worked with him, he put in the work. He spent months in Nashville working with top songwriters and immersing himself in the scene, popping up at local clubs to play. Plus, as a Texas boy, he grew up on country (among other genres), and folks in Nashville talk about how he is a country music jukebox. He is steeped in the stuff.
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3. “I Had Some Help” is still going strong at No. 2 on the Hot 100 chart, although plenty of F-1 Trillion tracks debut on this week’s chart. Which song from the album do you think has the highest potential as a follow-up hit to “Help”?
Jessica Nicholson: His Blake Shelton collaboration “Pour Me a Drink” is currently not far behind on the Hot 100, at No. 13. The song is also in the top 15 on the Country Airplay chart and is directly behind “I Had Some Help” on the Hot Country Songs chart, sitting at No. 3. Elsewhere, he recently released a video with Luke Combs for their collab “A Guy For That,” and that track is at No. 7 on the Hot Country Songs chart. However, his album also includes the Jelly Roll collab “Losers,” which could be primed to dominate as well.
Jason Lipshutz: “California Sober” with Chris Stapleton debuted at No. 34 on this week’s Hot 100, and I could see that reaching a higher peak in due time — that song is an absolute blast to yell along to in a windows-down situation, as Post Malone and Stapleton let their harmonies rip into the plucked guitar strings. Stapleton hasn’t had a true pop crossover moment in a minute, and “California Sober” might be his ticket to the Hot 100’s upper reaches. Get these two together on an awards show stage, pronto!
Katie Atkinson: The gritty opening track “Wrong Ones” with Tim McGraw has my vote for the chorus alone: “I’m just lookin’ for the right one/ But them wrong ones keep lookin’ at me.” That needs to be on country radio, stat. While McGraw has been making country music for 30 years now, 15 of his top 20 Hot Country Songs hits are from the last decade and he’s due for another.
Lyndsey Havens: While previous pop-leaning country singles like “Pour Me a Drink” or “Guy For That” feel like obvious picks, I’m rooting for the dizzying “California Sober” with Chris Stapleton. But then, there’s the downtrodden anthem “Losers” with Jelly Roll, who is no stranger to the Hot 100 himself… With so many songs to choose from, it’s still a toss-up for me which one will raise its hand next.
Melinda Newman: Both “Pour Me A Drink” with Blake Shelton and “Guy For That” with Luke Combs are already getting some airplay at country radio, and if you’re going with what fits right in with what else is on country radio right now in terms of tempo, I’d pick “Devil I’ve Been,” featuring ERNEST, or “Nosedive,” since he hasn’t had a ballad as a single yet and Lainey Wilson is so hot. However, I’d love to see “California Sober” with Chris Stapleton have a shot at radio. We placed it at No. 1 on our ranking of the album’s tracks, because it’s a fun rave-up where they both sound like they’re having a blast. Does it sound like most of what’s playing on radio right now? No, it does not. It’s a little more freewheeling and doesn’t have a structured chorus, but it sure sounds great in the car with the windows down.
4. Post Malone collaborates with over a dozen country artists on F-1 Trillion — but which one that isn’t on the album would you still love to hear him team up with someday?
Jessica Nicholson: He’s proven he knows his way around Texas swing and honky tonk, anthems thanks to songs on his F-1 Trillion: Long Bed deluxe project, thanks to songs like “Back to Texas” and “Who Needs You.” Adding his fellow Texans Miranda Lambert or “King George” Strait to a track would be superb.
Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with Sam Hunt, a hook maestro who’s long been adept at nudging his country style into different sonic territories. Imagine Post Malone contributing verse to a soothing, snappy country anthem akin to “Body Like a Back Road” — pretty intriguing, right?
Katie Atkinson: I’m stunned that his fellow Texan Kacey Musgraves isn’t on this album, so I’m going to need that collab on the next one. Her syrupy-sweet vocals next to his gravelly vibrato would be the perfect yin and yang.
Lyndsey Havens: Right now, in this moment, I have to say Shaboozey. I think the two of them would emerge with an absolute smash that perfectly blends their voices and effortlessly fuses country and Americana with a hint of hip-hop.
Melinda Newman: Without a doubt, fellow Texan George Strait. I’m curious if they tried and it didn’t work out timing-wise or it just wasn’t George’s thing. It would also be a blast to hear him and Garth Brooks do a duet.
5. If you could offer Post Malone some advice on his next studio project — either continue exploring country music, return to rap, or try something new entirely — what would you tell him?
Jessica Nicholson: I think further exploring country music and cementing his place in the genre beyond one album would be a smart move, especially given the track record of artists such as Kenny Rogers, Conway Twitty, and Darius Rucker who have found longevity within the country genre after having previous indie-pop sounds. Additionally, the breadth of sounds under country’s present-day umbrella makes some modern country hits sound not that far removed from Post’s own indie-pop hits. Perhaps even a hybrid project of country songs and his more rock stylings wouldn’t be out of the question, a la HARDY’s The Mockingbird & The Crow.
Jason Lipshutz: I might go with the “try something new entirely,” simply because Post Malone has already mined hip-hop and country music to great success, and has demonstrated a chameleonic ability to blend into the scene around him. What other sounds could be conquer? Could Posty link up with his pal Andrew Watt for a full-blown rock opus, or crank out a pop classic alongside Max Martin? If Post Malone made a jazz album, or a metal album… they would be surprisingly good, right? He is one of the smarter shape-shifting popular artists of our time, and I would never want Posty to do anything other than chase his muse.
Katie Atkinson: Do whatever you want! This is a man of multitudes who is clearly a natural fit in a lot of different worlds, and I just want to be along for the ride wherever the chameleon shows up next.
Lyndsey Havens: I have long begged for Post to release a folk album as Austin Post. His Dylan cover has lived in my head rent-free for a decade, and whether he chooses to release a project of covers in the same lane or continue to explore a folk-pop sound like his labelmate Noah Kahan, with whom he has collaborated on a remix of “Dial Drunk,” I’d be happy with whatever direction he chooses. Fortunately, with an artist like Post, nothing ever seems off the table – especially if you can also play beer pong on it.
Melinda Newman: I’d be curious to see where he goes if he keeps exploring country. The nine songs he released the next day after F-1 Trillion’s release, under F-1 Trillion: Long Bed, are way more traditionally country than the duets on F-1 Trillion, both stylistically and in instrumentation. He’s got a fine voice for country (though it seems that no style is beyond his vocal capabilities). What happens if he keeps leaning in that direction?
While the pop music world has been buzzing the past three months about everything from Brat summer to Kendrick Lamar’s Juneteenth takeover to Post Malone’s country pivot, Taylor Swift just keeps racking up weeks atop the Billboard 200.
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The Tortured Poets Department, which first reigned on the Billboard 200 dated May 4, enjoys a 15th week at No. 1 on this week’s chart (dated Aug. 24). She continues to hold off the ascendant Chappell Roan, who climbs 3-2 on the listing this week with her breakout The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess album, and she is now just four weeks away from tying Morgan Wallen’s 19-week mark for the longest-ruling No. 1 album of the decade.
Will Swift match that Wallen mark? And why has the pop discussion seemingly sidestepped Swift while her album remains this dominant? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. While the pop discussion this summer has largely revolved around Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Charli XCX, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department has now reached 15 weeks atop the Billboard 200, one of just two albums this decade to reach that mark. Why do you think Swift’s dominance has felt so (relatively) quiet this season?
Rania Aniftos: While nothing Swift does is ever really quiet, we’re in a new era of pop music where there isn’t just one artist dominating the charts at a time, which I think music fans have been craving for a long time. While Swift has been holding steady on the Billboard 200, the Hot 100 has given us a look into the next generation of pop. That’s why the rising popularity of stars like Sabrina, Charli and Chappell is getting so much attention this summer, while Swift maintains her reign as expected.
Katie Atkinson: Taylor’s loudest moment came when the album debuted in April, and then when she kicked off the European leg of her Eras Tour in May, so she was more so the pop story of the spring instead of summer. But her Eras Tour hasn’t slowed down in the months since, with the Euro leg wrapping Tuesday (Aug. 20) back in London. So even if she wasn’t getting all the headlines that Chappell, Sabrina and Charli were, she was still plugging away weekend after weekend, debuting new Tortured Poets songs onstage, releasing new physical versions of the album, and quietly staying the conversation, racking up 15 weeks at No. 1 along the way.
Rylee Johnston: I think it comes down to two things: Taylor Swift’s level of superstardom vs. Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Charli XCX’s and the type of music that was released. When looking at Roan, Carpenter and Charli, this summer has been monumental for their careers and arguably a pivotal moment for them as artists. Swift has already solidified herself as one of the biggest artists out there — so much so that it’s almost expected that she have a big opening due to the span of her reach; a flop on the charts would attract higher attention. When looking specifically at the music released, The Tortured Poets Department doesn’t have that “summertime” feel quite like the music off Brat, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess and the two singles we’ve gotten from Carpenter’s upcoming Short n’ Sweet. If Swift had created a more summer-feeling album and marketed it in that way, there may have been a more prominent presence than what we see now.
Jason Lipshutz: While Chappell, Sabrina and Charli are exciting new stars whose respective rises have invigorated popular music with new (or renewed, in Charli’s case) perspectives and fresh aesthetics, Taylor Swift remains the commercial pinnacle, a superstar in a class of her own when it comes to consumer interest. As such, our collective focus as pop purveyors has naturally gravitated toward the new crop of A-listers, while Swift has remained dominant in the relative background. And there’s nothing wrong with that! Swift has been on top for so long that it makes sense for the cultural conversation to slightly shift to other subjects, even as she logs more weeks at No. 1 and continues breaking records (in some cases, her own).
Andrew Unterberger: The other artists released and/or developed major hits more recently than Swift has from Poets — which certainly helps them feel more current, in additional to the natural excitement surrounding them as artists on the come-up rather than artists maintaining their throne. Also worth noting that Swift has mostly kept on the sidelines so far as far as election season is concerned, while Chappell and Charli both got huge exposure bumps from being involved (directly or not) with vice president Kamala Harris’ early presidential campaigning.
2. Speaking of Roan, her Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess album climbs to No. 2 on the chart this week. Do you think it will pass Tortured in the next week or two, or will Poets be able to hold it off until the album begins to lose momentum?
Rania Aniftos: Knowing Taylor, she’ll stay on the top of that chart no matter what. Maybe she’ll drop another music video or release another special edition vinyl, giving the album the boost to stay at that No. 1 spot.
Katie Atkinson: Looking ahead at the album release calendar, Swift might be the least of Chappell’s worries. Post Malone put out his first country album last week and fellow summer “it” girl Sabrina Carpenter puts out Short n’ Sweet this week – not to mention Travis Scott’s 10th-anniversary mixtape reissue coming Friday too. Roan’s little-album-that-could making it all the way to No. 1 would have been a great cherry on top for her star-making summer, but taking it to No. 2 alone, almost a year after its initial release, is still a massive accomplishment.
Rylee Johnston: Honestly, Roan’s album could stand a chance unless a new set of TTPD variations comes out for Swifties to collect. It’s also worth noting that Swift’s album has already begun a descent in album units compared to Roan’s rise this week. And, if the latter decides to drop the new music she’s been teasing on the road, she could find herself with a top spot — as it seems her fanbase only continues to grow with every live performance she puts on.
Jason Lipshutz: The next few weeks on the Billboard 200 should be pretty topsy-turvy, with the debuts of new albums from Post Malone and Sabrina Carpenter, among others. I’m not sure if and when Rise and Fall will shift above Tortured on the chart, either at No. 1 or elsewhere lower in the top 5 — Chappell has the new-school momentum, while Taylor has the longstanding commercial power — although I am rooting for Chappell to log at least one week atop the Billboard 200, to cap the remarkable ascent of a singular artist. Now that it’s reached the runner-up spot, I’m hoping Rise and Fall can hit No. 1 sometime in the next month or so.
Andrew Unterberger: I think Chappell will get there eventually, but it may have to take it by force — with a deluxe version or reissue or some other method of actively boosting consumption. If Roan’s team just expects she’ll grow into the No. 1 naturally based on her pre-existing momentum…. Taylor Swift doesn’t really lose by default very often, y’know? It’ll have to be a specific push, maybe centered around the album’s one-year anniversary in late September.
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3. While Tortured Poets doesn’t have the singles-based propulsion of some of the other albums defining the pop summer, it does have a single that’s grown in recent weeks in “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart,” which continues to rise through the chart’s 30s this week. Do you see it continuing to swell into a big enough hit to extend Tortured Poets’ chart shelf life, or do you see it fading along with the album in the weeks to come?
Rania Aniftos: I see it fading only because I have a feeling she’ll be announcing Reputation (Taylor’s Version) very soon, giving other songs time to shine.
Katie Atkinson: This was the song that originally stuck out to me when the album was released, mostly because (despite its heartbreaking lyrical content) it was the happiest, poppiest track among a more, well, tortured project. I’m not surprised to see it rise as the favorite on radio and streaming in the months since, and maybe it could have a similar Eras Tour-fueled journey back to the upper reaches of the Hot 100 (following its debut-week No. 3 high) like “Cruel Summer” did last year. Looking at the Adult Pop Airplay chart, where it sits in the top 10 this week at its No. 8 peak, there’s still room to grow.
Rylee Johnston: It helps that the Eras tour is still going on, but with how long the album has been out now, timing is really going to need to be on her side. One way she could most likely get a jump on the chart would be a surprise appearance during “Broken Heart,” similar to what she did with Travis Kelce joining her to do the number on stage. If another big single comes out, then it’s very possible that it’ll overshadow “Broken Heart” and prevent it from reaching the top. We can’t forget that Carpenter’s album is dropping this week, and that will also certainly have an impact on the charts.
Jason Lipshutz: The chart prospects of “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” have been tricky to nail down. I expected the song to go full “Karma” on the Hot 100, quickly growing into a top 10 Hot 100 hit and radio mainstay once lead single “Fortnight” had subsided a bit — and while “Broken Heart” hasn’t gotten there yet and might not at all, the song has slowly been rising, a top 40 hit that’s now 16 spots above “Fortnight” on the tally. At this point, I think it will keep climbing into the top 20 and make a strong imprint on pop radio but fall a little short of the top 10 — something closer to a “Delicate” this time around.
Andrew Unterberger: The song climbing back into the top 40 is already more than I was expecting, to be honest. I like the song but it seemed like the moment had passed for it, and I wasn’t really convinced that massive radio airplay was ever in the cards for it. But if “Broken Heart” gets a new remix, with the right guest? I still don’t see it challenging for a second Tortured Poets No. 1 hit, but it could probably get top 20 at least.
4. With its incredible endurance atop the Billboard 200 and its historic first-week performance, do you think we will look back at The Tortured Poets Department as Taylor Swift’s peak of popularity a couple decades from now?
Rania Aniftos: Yes, but there’s nuance here. I don’t think Poets on its own will stand as peak of popularity in Swift’s career, but Poets in the context of the Eras Tour will. Dropping a 15-week Billboard 200 chart topper in the midst of a massive, record-breaking tour with your Super Bowl-winning boyfriend cheering you on from the crowd is definitely a peak I’d like to stand on.
Katie Atkinson: I think that the concurrent Eras Tour will be remembered as the symbol of Swift’s stratospheric popularity right now more so than this album. To me, this album’s domination is because of all the attention and goodwill and community that has been built up by this once-in-a-lifetime tour. She has an unparalleled opportunity to immediately share these new songs with stadium crowds, and unlike a lot of veteran acts whose fans don’t want to hear the new stuff and just want the hits, she’s able to give them both and they eat up both voraciously. So Tortured Poets has become the 15-week No. 1 phenomenon that it is with the weight of the biggest tour possibly ever behind it.
Rylee Johnston: Maybe if the Eras tour wasn’t going on at the same time, but I think her tour will overshadow the album. Even when TTPD was released, the buzz wasn’t just about the music, but whether she would incorporate it into her tour and how the drop would impact her set list. I would even group the album more underneath the tour’s umbrella whereas her previous albums had air to breathe and a moment for itself. I don’t really see this period as her TTPD era, like I would with albums like Reputation or Red, and think her next album would potentially be more impactful, as it would be singular and not lumped in with a decade-spanning tour.
Jason Lipshutz: My guess is that we will view these past three years as that peak — from the first re-records to Midnights to the Eras tour to The Tortured Poets Department — an incredible cultural force that extended into all facets of popular music, from the touring industry to awards ceremonies to social media reach (don’t forget that “Cruel Summer” went viral, all the way to No. 1, in the middle of that span!) to studio output. And to that lattermost aspect, The Tortured Poets Department may serve as the crown jewel, as a sprawling, idiosyncratic, highly vulnerable project that scored the biggest first-week debut, and has now spent the most weeks at No. 1, of any Swift album. She has blown away the competition on her own terms.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s possible the history books will paint it as such — and it would certainly fit, with the numbers and everything — but having lived through both years I don’t think there’s really any question that Taylor Swift’s 2023 was much, much bigger than her 2024. Which isn’t to take away from Swift’s 2024, which has still been massively successful on every conceivable level. But her 2023 was a once-in-a-lifetime pop year, not to ever be repeated — by her, or possibly by anyone else either.
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5. Yes or no: Does Tortured Poets ultimately match One Thing at a Time’s 19-week run atop the 200?
Rania Aniftos: Yes. Team Taylor!
Katie Atkinson: I wouldn’t count Swift out, like, ever, but she has a much more challenging road ahead to snag four more weeks. I think there’s a strong chance she could get a few more – especially with some physical shipments still looming and the potential for an Anthology vinyl release – but I predict she’ll fall shy of 19.
Rylee Johnston: No, but mostly because the two albums are in different categories. What’s impressive about One Thing at a Time’s success is how the country album has been able to overshadow pop music. Whereas Swift’s global reach has enabled her to generate a level of stardom that results in immediate domination of the charts for a longer period. What’s worth calling out though, is that both artists have very loyal fans, and I think they all are willing to put in the work to help both artists remain at the top.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m going to say yes, because, even if other projects sneak into the top spot in the coming weeks and months, I have to imagine that The Tortured Poets Department will remain a massive physical product around the holidays. Who needs a shiny new toy from Santa when you can have “My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys” on vinyl? My prediction is, before the end of 2024, TTPD will have notched 20+ weeks at No. 1.
Andrew Unterberger: Do you remember that One Thing at a Time racked up its 17th, 18th and 19th weeks this year — most recently in March? I don’t think we’re anywhere near Swift reaching the end of her run here; she could go 10 straight weeks without hitting the top spot and still be a considerable threat to hit it in Week 11. Bottom line: I’d be pretty surprised if she doesn’t get to 19 at some point.
In an era when most albums peak in interest during their debut week and slowly slide away from there, Charli XCX‘s Brat is already two months old and still seems to become more central to the pop conversation every week.
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As two of the album’s established hits continue to climb the Billboard Hot 100 this week, with “360” climbing 44-41 and “Apple” rising 66-52, the two songs are leapfrogged by the No. 12 debut of “Guess,” boosted by the Brat bonus cut’s new remix featuring pop superstar Billie Eilish. The flirty collab between the two pop hitmakers (with an eye-catching, undergarment-strewn video) instantly becomes Charli XCX’s highest-peaking single since 2014, while Eilish collects her sixth new top 20 hit this year.
What does the song’s success mean for the rest of the pop season increasingly referred to as Brat summer? And how important are the song’s sapphic overtones (particularly in Eilish’s new verse) to the continued normalization of LGBTQ content in top 40? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Charli XCX’s Billie Eilish-featuring remix of Brat deluxe reissue cut “Guess” debuts at No. 12 on the Hot 100 this week — making it easily the highest-peaking hit from the entire Brat era. Is its success just a matter of the combined star power of the names involved, or do you think there’s more to the song’s success?
Katie Bain: Certainly it’s a function of the star power, plus a general curiosity of what Billie would bring to the song, then also an acknowledgment of how well she delivers on the track. It seems likely as well that timing is a factor, given that the remix came out 10 days after Charli’s culture-sharking “Kamala IS brat’ tweet whipped up a frenzy and pushed the album further into the cultural conversation, particularly areas where it didn’t previously exist, drawing more attention to anything/everything about the project. The song’s female-centric themes also dovetail neatly with the woman-power vibe of the Kamala Harris campaign (albeit in a much more explicit way), so the remix coming in the wake of the tweet made for synergy, and likely made a difference in the track’s performance.
Stephen Daw: I’d argue it’s more the latter. There’s no denying that nabbing a mega-star like Billie Eilish for the “Guess” remix was a huge get for Charli, but the reason this remix works is because it feels like a missing piece of the song has been added. Instead of simply repeating the same verse, Billie gets her own take on the track with some truly out of pocket lyrics that add to the performative idea behind the single. Sure, having these two stars together on one track certainly contributed to the song’s success, but I doubt it would have charted this high were it not for Billie’s cheeky performance.
Jason Lipshutz: The star power helps — after all, Billie Eilish is one of the biggest active pop superstars on the planet, with another smash currently in the top 10 of the Hot 100 — but the “Guess” remix has largely benefited from the general buy-in to the Brat era and the narrative that Charli XCX has harnessed with the project. Brat has become the definition of cool in pop over the past few months, and because of that, its deluxe-edition songs, remixes and music videos have all enjoyed the snowball effect of Brat Summer, with each new release receiving greater and greater attention from a larger number of listeners. For her part, Charli has played this rollout perfectly — including saving her biggest remix collaborator for the moment in which Brat consumption reached a fever pitch.
Taylor Mims: Combined star power is definitely a factor in the song’s success. Both Charli and Billie are having huge summers with two great albums, but throwing two big stars on a track doesn’t necessarily make a hit. Billie has been a superstar for years now, but Hit Me Hard and Soft shows off her different, lighter side with tracks like “Lunch,” “Birds of a Feather” and “L’Amour De Ma Vie.” A track like “Guess,” which ends with the line “You wanna guess if I’m serious about this song,” is so unserious in the best way possible — and makes it a perfect companion for Billie’s current repertoire, which makes it easy for her fans to get on board.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a combination of a star power 1-2 and just good planning in general: Everything about the rollout, timing and general conceptualization behind the “Guess” remix hit just right. Personally I think there’s plenty of other Bratverse songs that deserve to be as big (and likely bigger), but the major debut of “Guess” is sort of the culmination of the entire era to this point anyway.
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2. As Brat summer just keeps getting hotter, the album continues to climb back up the Billboard 200, now ranking at No. 6 — three spots off its No. 3 debut a couple months ago. Do you think it will eventually best that original peak, or do you think the season of Brat is soon to wind to a close?
Katie Bain: It depends on what tricks Charli has up her sleeve to keep momentum going. She’s promised that a remix version of the album is coming, which would likely only draw more attention to the original, so depending on what her next chess moves are, I think there’s reason to believe it could continue climbing and segue us all into Brat Autumn.
Stephen Daw: Every summer has to end, and that includes Brat summer. I could see the album gaining another position or two with another big, blockbuster remix (maybe with Troye Sivan ahead of their co-headlining Sweat Tour?), but I think we’re marching towards the end of the cultural chokehold Charli has held us in for the last few months.
Jason Lipshutz: Part of the answer will depend upon how much the Brat hits continue growing on the Hot 100; if Charli can score an enduring top 10 hit from the album, then the album has a good shot at rising back to, or above, its No. 3 peak. At this point, though, that battle has already been made moot by a successful war: Brat is now Charli xcx’s longest-running album on the Billboard 200 chart, and a full-blown cultural phenomenon that keeps getting bigger. Want to know what’s cooler than having a No. 1 album? Having one that helps define pop music for an entire season in 2024.
Taylor Mims: Just because school has resumed, does not mean we are done with Brat summer. The Democratic party candidate has been dubbed “Brat” and, if we are to make it through an election year in the U.S., we’re gonna need the Brat season to carry over into the fall. The allbum seems like it will easily regain its peak position and possibly even reach the summit following this “Guess” remix. Clocking in at under two and a half minutes, this song will get repeat listens at a rapid pace, and propel Brat further and further up the chart.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t bet against Brat‘s momentum at this point — it feels like she’s taking the Noah Kahan-minted approach to this album of continuing to crank out star-studded remixes and deluxe editions as long as fans have the appetite for ’em, and right now they still seem hungry as ever. Personally, I hope it peaks at No. 2 — marking an undeniable triumph, but still allowing Charli to hold onto a bit of her underdog edge.
3. Meanwhile, Eilish’s own “Birds of a Feather” keeps gaining momentum on the Hot 100 — reaching a new peak of No. 7 this week. Why do you think that song has grown into the biggest breakout hit from her Hit Me Hard and Soft album?
Katie Bain: Melody. Whereas a lot of the album is more challenging/experimental in terms of structure, themes and Billie’s vocal delivery, “Birds of a Feather” is a bright, straightforward, singalong pop song made for radio.
Stephen Daw: “Birds of a Feather” feels like something genuinely new from an artist who has made a career from out-of-the-box creative decisions. The thing that makes “Birds” stand out in Billie’s catalog is that, sonically, it isn’t as eclectic as her other hits — it’s a simple, dark love song. It doesn’t lose that ephemeral quality that makes Billie Eilish songs so fascinating to listen to, but it also manages to recontextualize Billie in a more conventional sound that feels different from anything else she’s put out, let alone anything else on Hit Me Hard and Soft. Bonus points for the fact that her voice sounds nearly perfect on this track.
Jason Lipshutz: “Birds of a Feather” has maintained its high streaming totals while also establishing its foothold on pop radio, helping the song stay a hit in its first few weeks of release and then grow into an even bigger one recently. It also helps that “Birds” has the fans squarely in its corner: “Lunch” was the clear focus track upon the release of Hit Me Hard and Soft, but “Birds” quickly swooped in (pardon the pun) as the standout, and the early supporters are still listening to and championing the song three months later.
Taylor Mims: Obvious answer: because it’s a great song! Billie has historically had a much darker, moodier sound on her albums – plenty of which can still be found on HMAS – but “Birds of a Feather” is the opposite. The song is pure pop delight with her delicate vocals and the deeply sincere lyrics. The term “I want you to stay” could be dismissed as commonplace, but it’s actually an incredibly vulnerable thing to say to a new love and the lyrics only get better from there. It’s a phenomenally sweet love song that I think will only gain popularity the more it is played.
Andrew Unterberger: You know what pop fans still love, even in 2024? A good love song! You don’t hear as many on top 40 radio as you once did, of course — especially straightforward ones, written without much anger or resentment at their core — but when you hear a great singer testifying “I’ll love you ’til the day that I die” and sounding like they mean it, it’s still hugely powerful no matter who you are.
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4. The crossover success of “Guess,” in a summer that’s already seen songs of same-sex love and attraction from Chappell Roan and Eilish solo hit the top 10: very meaningful for LGBTQ presence and acceptance in pop music, somewhat meaningful, or not ultimately that meaningful?
Katie Bain: Representation is, as ever, important, especially when coming from two of the biggest pop stars on the planet who are at once celebrating and normalizing same sex love and attraction, and via Eilish, doing in a way that’s authentic/not performative. That feels meaningful.
Stephen Daw: Without question, this is a Big Deal™ for the community. It’s not entirely new — Lil Nas X topped the charts back in 2021 with “Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” a song that is very loudly about queer sex. But what’s important about the success of “Guess,” “Lunch,” “Good Luck, Babe!” and most of the other six songs Chappell currently has on the Hot 100 is consistency. Where past tracks about same-sex attraction could be written off as singular hits born out of a cult of personality, the continued success of all these songs about queer romance on the charts proves that audiences aren’t discriminatory when it comes to the object of a good love song — they care about specificity and whether or not it sounds good. That is a huge deal for every LGBTQ+ artist who has ever been told that they need to make their song more “universally appealing” (read: “less gay”), and a message to labels and distributors around the globe that these antiquated “rules” about what sells in pop music have been largely abandoned by modern audiences.
Jason Lipshutz: Very meaningful, just like all of these moments that help normalize same-sex feelings and relationships within popular music. Nothing about “Guess” is shocking in 2024, especially following recent hits by Chappell Roan and Eilish, but every song like it remains significant in rearranging the expectations of what a hit can express lyrically and musically. This year has been a landmark one for LGBTQ artists in the upper reaches of the charts, but more work needs to be done, and more songs like “Guess” means more positive developments.
Taylor Mims: This is a very meaningful moment for LGBTQ+ representation in pop music, but especially for queer women. For centuries, women who love women have been disappeared from culture because of homophobia, for their own safety or simply because people didn’t think they were real. On top of that, there was the issue of “who their audience would be.” Gay men have long been a target audience for “divas” and pop stars, but Chappell and Billie (along with Renee Rapp, Janelle Monáe, boygenius and MUNA) have proven that queer women are an eager and powerful fanbase. And I much as I would like to believe that every person in those massive Chappell crowds identifies as LGBTQ+, I don’t think that’s the case — she is appealing to the widest of audiences.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if it’s as meaningful as the other examples on the whole, but I think it’s particularly meaningful simply in its casting. If this was a decade ago, maybe Charli just enlists the guy from The Dare to be her leering co-star, and the results are fun but uninspiring. Instead, she keeps him behind the decks for “Guess” and allows her female peer to be the ogler — with much richer (and likely more successful) results. That’s a pretty big deal. Now the question is who on the hetero male side of pop hitmaking will be bold enough to do the same with a queer male star like Troye Sivan or Lil Nas X.
5. If you could flip the “Guess” batting order and have Charli XCX appear on a track from Hit Me Hard and Soft, which would you have her feature on?
Katie Bain: Given the hard left that “L’Amour de Ma Vie” takes at the 3:40 mark, it would create a huge sense of anticipation for Charli to show up on this last section of the song, which, which it’s ’80s synth production, exists within the electronic world she’s already so adept in.
Stephen Daw: I think a Charli feature on “L’Amour de Ma Vie,” especially with the song’s big electronic breakdown in its final minute, would be very cool. Maybe a duet takes the hyperpop concept and expands it into an entire dance remix for Charli and Billie to sing over, or maybe it gives Charli another chance to show off her ballad skills like she did on Brat’s SOPHIE tribute “So I” — either method would make for a stunning new version of the song.
Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with “The Diner” — it’s got a cheeky streak that’s up Charli’s alley, and I’m imagining her pumping up that pre-outro bridge. Let’s do it, folks!
Taylor Mims: My first thought was “Lunch” since it sonically makes sense for Charli, but I wouldn’t want to change that song in the slightest. So, “L’Amour De Ma Vie” would be my runner-up. The track would probably need to be put in electro-overdrive, but the lyrical content would be fun for Charli to step into. A Charli verse about a terrible ex would undoubtedly be a banger and would take that dagger of a song and make it a death blow.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t be surprised if Billie and Charli were planning a “Lunch” Pt. 2 — “Linner,” perhaps? “Tea Time”? — as we speak.
One of the fastest-rising artists of the 2020s takes another step up the ladder this week, as Chappell Roan hits new highs on both the Billboard 200 albums chart and the Billboard Hot 100.
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Thanks to a summer-long crescendoing of public interest (and less clutter this week from big album debuts), Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess albums climbs 8-4 on the Billboard 200 dated Aug. 10. Meanwhile “Good Luck, Babe!” ascends 10-8 on the Hot 100 — highest of her six separate entries on the chart this week, with all except the newer “Babe” hailing from Midwest Princess.
Which of the two charts is Roan likely to top first? And what impact will the tremendous success she’s enjoying have on the larger music industry? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess jumps four spots to a new high of No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, reaching the peak in its 19th week on the chart, while “Good Luck, Babe!” climbs 10-8 this week to also hit a new peak on the Hot 100. If you had to bet on one of them to reach No. 1 on their respective charts, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: If I had to bet on one of them reaching No. 1 on their respective charts, I would choose “Good Luck, Babe!” Singles often have an easier upward trajectory on the charts because they stand alone. Often times a single is its own story allowing it to capture the audience attention in a shorter time frame and then generate sales and streams. On the other hand, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a combination of 14 tracks, so its chart performance depends on the reception of all the songs. This makes its rise potentially slower as multiple factors contribute to its overall success.
Kyle Denis: This is hard – especially because a No. 1 on both charts (perhaps the same week?) is definitely not out of the question! If I had to bet on one of them, I would put my money on Midwest Princess topping the Billboard 200. It’s one of the few albums in recent memory that’s genuinely being consumed as a unit versus individual songs. The singles chart also feels more competitive right now; the chart’s top ten has been relatively stagnant in recent weeks. Nonetheless, should a “Good Luck, Babe!” music video arrive soon, all bets are off.
Lyndsey Havens: I think “Good Luck, Babe!” is well on its way to a becoming a Hot 100 chart topper. As evidenced by the gradual climb of both the hit and its respective album, Chappell manages to grow more and more powerful with each passing week. And on the heels of her epic Lollapalooza performance in Chicago this past weekend – where she garnered the biggest crowd to date across the fest’s global franchise – I would expect to see “Babe” jump into the chart’s top 5, at least. And as we should all know by now, it’s only up from there, as it seems Chappell has all the luck she needs.
Andrew Unterberger: We’re getting to the point where it feels like she could make the jump on either chart with a single lever pull — either a music video or official remix for “Babe” or a deluxe reissue of Princess would likely do the respective tricks. (A deluxe Princess reissue featuring a new remix of “Babe” could possibly even accomplish the double whammy.) But assuming she doesn’t do any of that, I’d probably vote for “Babe,” just because it’s still massive on streaming and growing on radio, and every new bump in momentum she gets — a gigantic festival set here, a political endorsement there — seems to hoist it higher. But it very well might end up being a photo finish between the two.
Christine Werthman: I’m going with “Good Luck, Babe!” going to No. 1 on the Hot 100. I’ve heard it on the radio multiple times a day, in coffee shops, at rest stops — the song is everywhere. I know the album has a shorter climb to the top, but I’m skeptical that it would dethrone Taylor.
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2. While “Babe” remains her lone top 10 hit, the Hot 100 is increasingly overrun with Roan songs the past couple months — also including “Hot to Go!” (No. 26), “Pink Pony Club” (No. 42), “Red Wine Supernova” (No. 52), “Casual” (No. 76) and “Femininomenon” (No. 86) — most of which are still rising on streaming and/or radio. If you had to bet on one of those songs eventually joining “Babe” in the top 10, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: I would have to say “Hot to Go!” — it’s my favorite out of the bunch. The song has a catchy melody that’s infectious and lyrics that are easy to remember. “Hot to Go!” is also filled with a joyful message of self-love, which resonates with many listeners and allows the track to connect with a wide audience. Additionally, the track features an easy-to-learn dance routine that pairs perfectly with the chorus, making it even more engaging and shareable, especially on TikTok.
Kyle Denis: Although “Hot to Go!” is punchier and already has a head start, I’m betting on “Red Wine Supernova” — that melody is undeniable, and her voice drips with charisma on that track. I can also see a case being made for “Pink Pony Club,” given how emotional its message is.
Lyndsey Havens: Impossible to pick just one. The magic of Roan is that any of these songs – if not all – could have sleeper hit potential. I’ve lost count of all the times I have heard someone humming “Casual,” or blasting “Pink Pony Club” from their car — and even my mom has become familiar with the “Hot to Go” arm moves after seeing enough Lolla clips on social media. But while I think “Pony” and “Hot” are rightfully leading the charge right now – as both are amped up summer-ready hits – I wouldn’t count “Casual” out just yet. As the season cools down and we head into fall, that song falls more in line with the aesthetic of the season and could ultimately surpass its frontrunners.
Andrew Unterberger: The fact that any of the five are highly credible and conceivable candidates here is pretty insane to begin with — but I’m leaning towards “Pink Pony Club,” which has a sorta slow-building anthemic quality to it that seems like it could prove kinda inextinguishable in the months to come. Hell, even Blink-182 is riffing on it now.
Christine Werthman: I could see “Casual” getting used in a show or movie and that being the boost it needs to take a run at the top. “Casual” is the first Roan song I ever heard in 2022, and I thought it was so clever in its summation of situationship confusion (also accurately described the same year in the beginning of the FKA twigs song “oh my love”). It’s not as bombastic as some of the other Hot 100 options from Roan, but it’s still quirky, smart and honest, with a big belting moment, highly specific scenes and a singalong chorus. It remains one of my favorites.
3. We’re practically starting to run out of Rise and Fall songs that aren’t already Hot 100 hits — but if you had to bet on one more to join the party at this point, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: I think “California” has great potential to join the Hot 100. “California” is Roan’s reflection on the pursuit of dreams and the inevitable disappointment that sometimes comes with them. She sings about someone who leaves their home to chase their dreams in California, a land of opportunity much like New York. However, upon arriving, Roan realizes she may have been disillusioned, yearning to return home and relive what she left behind. This is a deeply relatable story, as many people leave their hometowns for school or their dream jobs, only to face unexpected challenges and homesickness. In this track, Roan is raw and honest, and I believe her audience can respect and connect with the complex emotions she shares.
Kyle Denis: Probably “My Kink Is Karma,” people love that one!
Lyndsey Havens: As someone who’s not even on TikTok, I know that “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” sure is. That song is so much fun and, as such, so very Brat.
Andrew Unterberger: The smart bet is definitely “My Kink Is Karma,” since that’s built enough streaming momentum to already be on the cusp of making the chart. But “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” feels like the most single-ready of the remaining non-Hot 100 hits — and it’s being used in a suddenly unavoidable Marshall’s commercial — while “Naked in Manhattan” is forever just a big synch away from going absolutely nuclear. We’ll see.
Christine Werthman: I’m putting my chips on “My Kink Is Karma.” Like “Casual,” it’s a mid-tempo song filled with super-specific, clever callouts and an explosive vocal moment. As we’ve seen with other Hot 100 hitmakers (see: Olivia Rodrigo, Gayle), artists find success with tell-off tracks. Roan’s is a takedown, but her delivery is too cool to care, as she coos, “Wishing you the best in the worst way/ Using your distress as foreplay.” It’s a wicked little number, and though it made it onto the Bubbling Under chart, it deserves to jump to the Hot 100.
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4. Chart success is one thing, but last Thursday Chappell Roan also played to a late-afternoon Lollapalooza crowd so packed to the back of Grant Park that the photos and videos almost defied belief — especially considering she only made her first appearance on either the Billboard 200 or Hot 100 just four months ago. What do you think is the biggest reason Roan has been able to experience such exponentially expanding success over such a short period of time?
Christopher Claxton: Chappell Roan has a sound that feels both fresh and familiar, making her music incredibly accessible. Her voice and style bring to mind a combination of Taylor Swift and Lana Del Rey, with songs like “Casual” echoing the youthful charm of early Taylor Swift. Moreover, her songs are versatile — they’re perfect for a commute to work, energizing for a workout at the gym, and captivating for live performances. Many artists struggle to create songs that are equally good for streaming and performing, but Chappell Roan seems to have mastered this balance. This versatility, along with her relatable lyrics and engaging melodies, has allowed her to connect with a wide audience and experience rapid success.
Kyle Denis: In addition to Midwest Princess being stacked with stone-cold bangers, Chappell’s live show has really helped her exponential rise. From opening up for Olivia Rodrigo to this latest Lollapalooza set, her theatrical, campy and intensely physical performances have captivated audiences across the country – even those who may not have been enamored with her music off a casual Spotify listen. She’s also making pop music that truly feels fresh; she’s unabashedly queer, her songwriting is evocative yet accessible, and she’s speaking directly to the rising generation of pop music consumers.
Lyndsey Havens: Something I’ve been talking about a lot lately is the idea of a narrative – something that, in an era of TikTok-propelled stars – has felt like less of a driving factor for stardom today. But with Chappell, not only is the music incredible but her story is, too: being dropped by a major label only to move back home only to not lose faith and work even harder only to reemerge more herself and have those songs be the ones that connect so deeply. What has made her rise so much fun for fans new and old is that it feels incredibly earned, and she doesn’t shy away from just how long her journey to the top has been – which is exactly why it feels so special to be a part of it now.
Andrew Unterberger: The biggest thing for me with Chappell is that she seems to be pulling in fans from all age groups. She obviously has the teens and early 20-somethings in her pocket, but I also can’t remember another new pop artist in my adult lifetime who’s inspired more visible excitement in grown folks I know who don’t normally follow or care about contemporary pop music. I’m still not totally sure what to attribute that to, aside from the fact that she’s reminiscent of the best parts of pop stars who emerged a generation earlier (namely Lady Gaga and Katy Perry), so she feels instantly familiar to older fans — but with a modern spin and underdog edge that makes her feel fresh and fun to root for. It’s fascinating stuff, and we’re going to be unpacking all of it for a long time to come.
Christine Werthman: Roan’s album dropped in September 2023, but 2024 brought her a host of live performance opportunities that catapulted her to a wider audience: opening slots on Olivia Rodrigo’s tour, legendary sets at Coachella, Governors Ball and Bonnaroo, and an epic Tiny Desk concert. The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a no-skips album, but Roan really shines live, and this year, she got the proper stages to showcase her talents, which has led people back to her album.
5. Roan’s runaway success is so staggering that it’s bound to cause ripple effects throughout the industry. What’s one way you could (or already do) see her breakout having either a short-term or long-term impact on the music world?
Christopher Claxton: While the full impact of Roan’s success may still be unfolding, one notable short-term effect is her influence on fashion and performance aesthetics. Her elaborate outfits, ranging from the Statue of Liberty to a wrestler and a fairy, have become major talking points. This emphasis on theatrical and eye-catching costumes is likely to inspire other artists to invest more in their visual presentation, enhancing both their performances and their overall appeal. In the long-term, Roan’s success highlights the growing importance of platforms like TikTok in an artist’s career. The platform’s ability to turn snippets into viral sensations can significantly amplify a song’s reach and impact, leading more artists to harness TikTok and platforms like it to advance their music and connect with audiences in creative ways.
Kyle Denis: Opening slots on major tours have always been coveted gets, but I think after the explosive growth of Gracie Abrams and Sabrina Carpenter post-Eras Tour and Roan post-Guts Tour will make artists and their teams even more hellbent on securing those spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if Amaarae, who is opening up for Carpenter’s upcoming trek, experiences a similar jump in success. And the same goes for whoever Roan picks to open her inevitable headlining tour.
Lyndsey Havens: I think both in and out of the industry people are driving with their eyes on the rear-view mirror much more – pushing ahead, but also giving much more thought, time and attention to artists who may have previously been overlooked or pushed in a wrong direction or simply not afforded patience. I think – and hope – the success that Chappell is having right now is placing an emphasis back on slow growth and supported artist development. Now that we have all caught up to Chappell, maybe we’ll be more ready for whomever comes next.
Andrew Unterberger: Folks are learning they need to pay attention to opening acts! Between Sabrina Carpenter going supernova post-Eras Tour and Chappell becoming massive following her run kicking off the Guts World Tour, it’s clear that the opener slots on these big-ticket tours — which are increasingly central events in pop culture, even for those not attending — can function as sort of a minor-league feeder system for burgeoning talents who are already ready for the big show. We’re going to see far more eyes on those artists, hoping to catch a future superstar in an embryonic stage, and hopefully we’re going to see those artists doing everything they can to step their own games up and seize the opportunity in front of them.
Christine Werthman: I don’t know that I’ve seen much yet, but I hope her success throws open the door for more queer pop stars on the main stage.