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If Hurry Up Tomorrow is indeed his final album — as the artist born Abel Tesfaye has hinted at it being, at least under his current artist name — then The Weeknd is certainly going out with a bang.
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Tomorrow bows atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this week (dated Feb. 16) with 490,500 first-week units (with 359,000 in sales), according to Luminate. The debut is the strongest of The Weeknd’s career, beating his previous high of 444,000 (posted by his After Hours blockbuster in 2020) and nearly tripling the 148,000 number that Dawn FM, his prior LP, entered with in 2021. Meanwhile, the set lands 14 tracks on the Billboard Hot 100, led by the Playboi Carti teamup “Timeless” at No. 7.
What does the big debut mean for The Weeknd? And if this is the end of The Weeknd, what could Tesfaye possibly do next? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. The Weeknd’s Hurry Up Tomorrow debuts with 490,500 first-week units, the best first-week numbers of his career and nearly three times more than the number moved by predecessor Dawn FM in its first week in 2021. On a scale from 1-10, how big a deal is this for The Weeknd?
Rania Aniftos: 9 — it would be a 10, but he’s no stranger to successful albums and likely isn’t too surprised at how well this one performed. However, since he teased this album as the end of The Weeknd (more on that later), it must be validating to have such an impressive end to an even more impressive career.
Kyle Denis: It’s gotta be a 9. The road to Hurry Up Tomorrow was notably rocky, slightly stained by The Idol and bereft of pre-release hits the size of “Heartless” or “Starboy,” so to pull off the best first-week numbers of your career with so many odds stacked against you is nothing less than impressive. With a figure like this, The Weeknd is also bidding farewell to this character while he’s still on top. Narratively, this is a big win for him; imagine if the album touted as the grand finale of his decade-plus career opened with numbers closer to that of Dawn FM’s opening week?
Jason Lipshutz: A 9. This debut demonstrates that interest in The Weeknd remains sky-high, at a moment when he hasn’t had a huge hit in a few years and is about to play stadium shows in a few months. The Weeknd would be an A-lister regardless of what this first-week total had been, but with Hurry Up Tomorrow’s gargantuan debut, he proves that he is still a commercial blockbuster, capable of turning out fans in droves for more than just the old hits.
Heran Mamo: I’d say 9. For a superstar of The Weeknd’s caliber, you’d expect him to go out with a bang if this is really his last album under his current stage name.The only reason I’m not saying 10 is because while Dawn FM might not have been The Weeknd’s best-performing album at the time of its release, its well-conceived concept and ultra-polished production have allowed it to age incredibly.
Andrew Unterberger: Let’s say 8. It’s a big deal, but Tesfaye’s got a lot of big-deal stuff going on right now — from a surprise Grammys comeback to a still-expanding big stadium tour — and I’m not sure it totally stands out from the pack there.
2. What do you see as being the biggest factor in Hurry Up Tomorrow’s stellar early performance?
Rania Aniftos: He really leaned into the idea of “rebirth” and coming back to himself throughout the promo process, which makes me think that fans were more curious than ever about what Hurry Up Tomorrow might sound like. Would it continue be like After Hours and Starboy, or would he return to his House of Balloons or Trilogy roots? To me, it was a seamless mix of both musical eras, appealing to OG fans and ones he made along the way.
Kyle Denis: In his Billboard 200 roundup, our very own Keith Caulfield noted that Hurry Up Tomorrow was available across eight vinyl variants, eight CD variants, a cassette tape, and nine deluxe boxed sets in addition to its standard configurations and access on DSPs. Of course, someone still needs to buy these versions, so the real credit for Hurry Up Tomorrow’s early performance is due to The Weeknd’s deep relationship with his XO fan community. Over the course of his career and the unfurling of the character of The Weeknd, the four-time Grammy winner has garnered an incredibly dedicated fanbase who want to feel as immersed in the story as possible – whether that means collecting album variants, selling out stadiums, or buying tickets for the forthcoming Hurry Up Tomorrow film.
Jason Lipshutz: Unlike the star-heavy start of 2024, the beginning of 2025 has not been jammed with big new album releases — just Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos, really — and Hurry Up Tomorrow took advantage of that relative silence. Plus, The Weeknd made fans wait three years for a new project after being omnipresent at the start of the decade, resulting in a thirst for new music that was slaked by a 22-song opus ripe for racking up major streaming totals.
Heran Mamo: Literally, I would say album sales since they accounted for 359,000 of the LP’s 490,500 first-week equivalent album units. But considering this has been touted as The Weeknd’s final album as “The Weeknd,” there’s a lot more riding on this than if it was just another album in his discography, and that’s bound to bring more attention to Hurry Up Tomorrow.
Andrew Unterberger: Good planning with the available variants, combined with strong messaging about the album’s place in his catalog — both as the end of this current 2020s album trilogy, and possibly the end of his entire career arc as The Weeknd.
3. “Timeless” is the highest-charting song from the new set in its first week, returning to the Hot 100’s top 10 at No. 7 after having previously peaked at No. 3. Do you think it will stand as the biggest hit from the set, or do you think another song on the album might pass it?
Rania Aniftos: I do think “Timeless” will continue to be the standout hit from the album, especially since he’s going on tour with his collaborator Playboi Carti, which will likely give the song another boost. I would, selfishly, love to see “The Abyss” with Lana Del Rey have a moment, because I’m a huge Lana fan and I think she and The Weeknd have some serious musical chemistry.
Kyle Denis: In terms of chart peaks, I think “Timeless” will probably remain the biggest hit from the set. In a just world “Cry for Me” is a massive spring hit, but we’ll see how that shakes out. “Wake Me Up” deserves some love too, but people seem to be a bit tired of disco/synthpop Weeknd (R.I.P. “Dancing in the Flames”). If he can convince frequent duet partner Ariana Grande to escape Oz for a moment to record a remix, perhaps she can turn “Open Hearts” into a “Save Your Tears”-esque hit.
Jason Lipshutz: “Timeless” will keep performing well — Playboi Carti’s red-hot streak is still intact, after all — but the focus track “Cry For Me,” which debuted on this week’s Hot 100 at No. 12, sounds like a durable hit, and the type of darkly lit, emotionally heightened synth-pop track that The Weeknd has turned into months-long smashes time and again. It’s unlikely to ever reach “Blinding Lights” heights, but “Cry For Me” should stick around through the spring, at least.
Heran Mamo: It’s hard to say considering “Timeless” had a four-month lead start as a single compared to most of the album’s songs. That 00XO connection between The Weeknd and Playboi Carti has grown stronger and stronger since their “Popular” collaboration with Madonna, and their unreleased “Lose You” joint has been getting a lot of hype since Carti’s Rolling Loud Miami performance last December. And considering “Timeless” is the latest new music release from Carti, fans will be clinging onto that single until I AM MUSIC finally drops (hopefully this year).
I don’t know if “Cry For Me” will surpass “Timeless,” but it’s solidifying itself as one of the most standout tracks from the album. The Weeknd performed both songs during his surprise set at the 2025 Grammys, and “Cry For Me” was No. 1 on the Global Apple Music chart, debuted at No. 5 on the Global Spotify chart and debuted at No. 12 on the Hot 100 this week, making it the second highest-charting track from the LP after “Timeless.”
Andrew Unterberger: Given that The Weeknd seems to be struggling to connect commercially with his more traditional pop songs since “Save Your Tears,” and that his more dramatic left turns like “Sao Paulo” haven’t fared much better, I imagine the halfway-point territory of “Timeless” (with a red-hot collaborator in Playboi Carti) will probably end up faring best from this one. Rooting for “I Can’t Wait to Get There” though.
4. Hurry Up Tomorrow has been teased to be The Weeknd’s final album, at least as The Weeknd. If so, how do you feel it rates as a grand finale for his superstar artistic persona?
Rania Aniftos: I’m very much satisfied. It feels like the end of a decade-plus character arc, a tribute to the mixtapes that put him on the map and a display of his captivating artistic growth ever since.
Kyle Denis: The more I sit with the album, the happier I am with it as a finale for The Weeknd. You get notes of all his past eras and some of his most bone-chilling songwriting (shoutout to “Baptized in Fear”), and he sounds great. His voice is notably more robust which makes for ballads that pack a much heavier punch than some of his earlier efforts in that space. My only hope is that this movie doesn’t ruin the album for me.
Jason Lipshutz: If The Weeknd does stick to this statement, this persona will have gone out on its own terms — the shadowy figure from the PBR&B days of the early 2010s lasting through the mid-2020s, a mystery morphed into a Super Bowl headliner. Hurry Up Tomorrow closes out a trilogy of albums, but it also puts a bow on the maximalist, bleary-eyed, synth-heavy sound that The Weeknd has been tinkering with for over a decade in the spotlight; it’s not his complete project, but it might be the one that’s most representative of who he is, and what he set out to do. And if that’s the case, Tomorrow is a hell of a parting shot.
Heran Mamo: 10/10. His consistent, intentional execution of callbacks to earlier moments from his career have made Hurry Up Tomorrow a compelling closing chapter for The Weeknd. As an artist who’s always idolized and been inspired by Michael Jackson, interpolating “Thriller” on the opening track “Wake Me Up” was an incredible homage. Flipping the song titles and motifs from his previous albums, like “Save Your Tears” to “Cry for Me” and “Escape From LA” to “Take Me Back to LA,” nicely brought things back around. And having the end of “Hurry Up Tomorrow” seamlessly transition into the beginning of “High For This,” the opening song from his debut mixtape House of Balloons 14 years ago, the first chapter of his primary Trilogy, was the LP’s quintessential full-circle moment.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s a strong finale — better on each listen and rich enough that I’m still uncovering new details and personal favorites. I do still wish it had one absolute can’t-miss standout smash on it that could sorta live outside the album a bit, but maybe that song just hasn’t quite revealed itself yet. Wouldn’t be the first time one of his deep cuts took a minute to reveal its charms and find its audience.
5. If this is indeed the end for The Weeknd as The Weeknd, what’s your bold prediction for what Abel Tesfaye might do next?
Rania Aniftos: It’s no bold prediction that he’ll make a home in the horror movie world — he’s already working on a psychological thriller. So, I’ll take it a few steps further. I loved his haunted house at Universal Studios’ Halloween Horror Nights, so why couldn’t he have a whole haunted theme park of his own where fans can experience the dark, twisted aspects of his music in real life?
Kyle Denis: Hopefully, more acting projects that aren’t connected to pop stardom/music… I feel like some space from that world might do him so good.
Jason Lipshutz: The Idol 2: Tedros’ Revenge. I’m half-kidding! I do think he might take a break to explore Hollywood before eventually dipping back into music and reclaiming what is his.
Heran Mamo: He’s going to dive deeper into the TV and film world. His HBO TV series The Idol seemed to be a bit of a false start, but by co-writing, co-producing and starring in his first feature film Hurry Up Tomorrow and launching his own Manic Phase production company, it seems like Tesfaye is creatively rerouting to something he’s always dreamed of doing.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ve said it before, but I think Tesfaye starts anew as a recording artist under a totally different name — and doesn’t let us know for sure that it’s him until well into the project.
After being one of the most frequent visitors to the top of the Billboard Hot 100 around the turn of the 2020s, Travis Scott is back there for the first time in nearly half a decade this week with his new single “4×4.”
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The new single, whose net proceeds Scott announced will benefit Direct Relief’s California Wildfire Response Fund, debuts atop the Hot 100 this week, making for Scott’s fifth career No. 1 on the chart. It’s also the first rap single to top the chart in 2025, following four weeks of Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars’ ‘Die With a Smile” reigning.
How did “4×4” get over the top on the chart? And what does the song tell us about where he might go next as an artist? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Though Travis Scott topped the Hot 100 three times at the turn of the decade, this is his first time back to No. 1 since. On a scale from 1-10, how big a deal is “4×4” debuting at No. 1 for him?
Kyle Denis: Probably a 6? We’ve seen this film before with Travis seemingly coming out of nowhere to debut atop the Hot 100 with a boatload of pure sales. If anything, he’s probably a bit annoyed that his true smashes and signature songs – like “Goosebumps” or “Fein” — keep missing the top spot in favor of loosies like this one.
Carl Lamarre: 8.5. Whenever an artist of Travis’ caliber lands a No. 1 song, it’s a noteworthy achievement, regardless of the circumstances. Travis, who’s evolved into a hip-hop supernova since 2018’s Astroworld, sees anything less than a chart-topping single or album as a flop. Despite his busy tour schedule, various business ventures, and preparation for his Coachella performance, it’s a relief for Team Travis to know that musically, he’s still in high demand, even after a two-year hiatus since Utopia.
Jason Lipshutz: Fittingly, a 4. Travis Scott carries the distinction of charting higher with his minor hits than with most of his signature songs — think of how “The Scotts” and “Franchise” brought him to the top of the Hot 100, for instance, while “Goosebumps” and “FE!N” did not. We’ll see how “4×4” continues to perform on the Hot 100, but considering that this is a standalone single from an artist with multiple No. 1 hits whose commercial power was never in doubt, this chart-topping debut represents another feather in Scott’s cap rather than a monumental shift in mainstream appeal.
Michael Saponara: 4. I don’t think he necessarily needed any validation, but it has been over four years since his last No. 1 hit and “4×4” is the first since the Astroworld Festival tragedy. We’ll see if it infiltrates radio and can last on the charts heading into his Coachella performance in April.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah it’s a 5 at most. Never a bad thing to have another No. 1 on the roster but what are the chances this song is actually better-remembered or more meaningful to Travis’ catalog than “FE!N” (Hot 100 peak: No. 5) five years from now? Not particularly high I’d say.
2. What do you see as being the biggest factor in “4×4” getting over the top where his other singles of recent years have generally fallen short?
Kyle Denis: Travis has been teasing this song for months, so there was fervent anticipation across his fanbase. Snippets have been circulating since last September, and another teaser dropped during the Oct. 18 episode of WWE SmackDown. Two weeks later (Oct. 30), Scott performed the song at the last show of his $209 million-grossing Circus Maximus tour, and then again during his headlining set at Rolling Loud Miami’s tenth anniversary (Dec. 14). At the top of the new year (Jan. 6), Scott appeared in-person at WWE Raw and confirmed that “4×4” would be the program’s official opening theme. Later that month (Jan. 20), he played the song at the 2025 College Football Playoff National Championship halftime show, sharing a link to pre-save the song shortly after.
We’re already well acquainted with the buying power of Scott’s fanbase (this is also his first solo post-Utopia release), but with the “4×4” release, he also explicitly courted fans across two sports that are having major moments in American culture right now. Football, of course, is always the talk of the town, but between last Christmas’ Beyoncé Bowl, Kendrick Lamar’s forthcoming halftime show, and the Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce of it all, it’s smart to align yourself with American football in some way. Similarly, WWE Raw’s move to Netflix was a milestone moment for the evolution of live events and on-demand streaming services. Most importantly, sports fans put their money where their mouths are; they buy game tickets, jerseys, caps, etc. Selling pure copies of music feels like a Herculean task nowadays, but Travis Scott has cracked several codes.
Carl Lamarre: Quite frankly, the record is just straight heat. Travis hasn’t had a bulletproof single since “Sicko Mode,” and that song itself is forever entrenched in the Hip-Hop Hall of Fame when speaking of hits. So, understandably, it’s hard to topple that kind of success, knowing how much of an explosion “Sicko” made circa 2018. As for “4×4”, the buzz was created before the song’s release. He teased the initial record during his campaign with WWE months back, then performed the song at halftime for the College Football Playoff Championship game before ultimately unleashing the video. By creating a feverishly high demand for the song, Travis’ supporters came in droves when it was time to cheer on La Flame.
Jason Lipshutz: Fan excitement. Sure, it’s easy to point to the oversized sales numbers that helped “4×4” top the Hot 100 in the same way that Days Before Rodeo was able to top the Billboard 200 last year, but Scott boasts the rabid base to justify those numbers and push more minor projects to the top of the chart. And while “4×4” isn’t functioning like a durable hit on streaming services yet, it’s also Scott’s first solo single since 2023, and one that fans feverishly wanted to be officially released for months. This Hot 100 debut doesn’t happen without that type of widespread listenership.
Michael Saponara: Hype. He’s been teasing “4×4” for a while in multiple forums, whether that be his DJ sets or a performance debut atop Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium as part of the College Football Playoff National Championship halftime show. The Tay Keith-produced track also made noise in the wrestling world while serving as the official theme song of Raw when it made the jump to Netflix at the top of 2025.
Andrew Unterberger: Gotta be the charity element. The hype helped, of course, but the sales number this song posted means fans really voted for this one with their wallets — and if they knew their funds were going to a cause as meaningful as L.A. fire relief, I’m sure that swayed a lot who were on the fence about whether or not they really needed to purchase the physical edition.
3. Of his three 2019-20 No. 1s, the only one that showed particular chart endurance was “Highest in the Room.” Do you see “4×4” as being that type of hit, or more of a quick-fader like “The Scotts” or “Franchise?
Kyle Denis: I anticipate it ending up somewhere in between. With the WWE Raw assists, I see “4×4” having more staying power than “The Scotts,” but it’s also not Travis’ best effort as far as standalone singles go… so I wouldn’t expect it to truly give “Highest” a run for its money chart-wise.
Carl Lamarre: Travis’ partnership with the WWE should help keep the song moving, as the track is now the theme song for Monday Night Raw. For my hip-hop and wrestling enthusiasts, that’s a big deal for Team Travis, as the latest Netflix deal between WWE and the streaming conglomerate means a bigger and newer audience for both parties. So, because of that, and seeing how he’s taken the record into different sectors, like the wrestling world and the college football arena, I’ll give it up the leg up over “Franchise” and “The Scotts” when speaking of staying power.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m guessing it will be somewhere in between — not a months-long hit, but not a forgotten piece of chart trivia, either. “4×4” sounds designed for live-show enormity, its orchestral thump and gargantuan drums slotting in nicely during the maximalist stretch on his set list. That will help “4×4” endure in fans’ minds, regardless of how many weeks the song logs on the Hot 100.
Michael Saponara: If this was a scale, I’d be leaning more toward the “Highest in the Room” side of things, but I don’t think it will match the longevity of “Highest” – that’s one of Trav’s signature tracks. However, “4×4” should have more legs than “The Scotts” or the gaudy “Franchise,” which burned bright and burned quickly during the COVID-19 pandemic when Scott’s rage was blanketed.
Andrew Unterberger: The song is already out of the top 50 on both Spotify’s Daily Top Songs USA and Apple Music’s real-time chart, so I’m guessing it’s gonna be more of a quick fader.
4. Do you think “4×4” points to any particular new evolution within Travis Scott’s sound or style for where he may go next, post-Utopia? Or is it more likely just a one-off not meant to signal much about his future direction?
Kyle Denis: I get one-off vibes from this. It’s a bit weak lyrically, but I don’t mind how the production feels like an offshoot of his Astroworld soundscape. He made some really nice choices with the background vocals too.
Carl Lamarre: This is a one-off situation for Travis. The guy is always working and experimenting. He’s still savoring Utopia’s wins and the impact it created over the last two years after its release. Consider this his victory lap, especially since he’s now a stadium-level artist, courtesy of his fans.
Jason Lipshutz: The latter. There’s no indication that “4×4” precedes a new Travis Scott project, and sonically, the song fits neatly into what he was accomplishing with Utopia. Considering the five-year gap between Astroworld and Utopia, we may be a ways away from a proper new Scott album and the stylistic shift that it may signify, so “4×4” likely represents a placeholder until that new era comes.
Michael Saponara: This feels like more of a one-off to set the tone for the year, although I wish it was a jetsetter into La Flame’s next era. I’d expect that to come around Coachella. The marching band horns aspect is experimental for Trav’s sound – I don’t think we’ve heard him utilize that mixed in with his trap drums on a track before.
Andrew Unterberger: I could see it leading to a more lush, string-based sound on his next album — the success of Bryson Tiller’s “Whatever She Wants” and 21 Savage’s “Redrum” set the table for that already a little bit last year. I hope so, it’s a good sound for Travis.
5. Travis Scott is the first rapper to top the Hot 100 in 2025 — who do you predict will be the second?
Kyle Denis: Probably Kendrick with whatever song gets the biggest boost from his Super Bowl halftime show. If not him… it could very well be Drake, ironically; it’s not implausible that one of the songs from his forthcoming Valentine’s Day joint album with Partynextdoor sneaks a week atop the Hot 100 when the full set drops on Feb. 14.
Carl Lamarre: Dare I say: Drizzy Drake Rogers. Think about it. New album with PND next week? All eyes are on him after Kendrick’s Grammy sweep and upcoming Super Bowl appearance. This is a lay-up for him.
Jason Lipshutz: Kendrick Lamar, particularly if “Luther” receives a prime slot in the Super Bowl halftime show. Due to the Christmas music onslaught beginning in November, “Squabble Up” remains the only GNX song to top the Hot 100. That feels wrong! And I believe it won’t be the case for much longer.
Michael Saponara: PUT THAT GELO ON!
Andrew Unterberger: How fun is it that the answer here is almost certainly either Drake or Kendrick Lamar? (Or maybe not that fun, depending.)
Music’s Biggest Night is just around the corner, airing this Sunday, Feb. 2. Though much is unsure about what the Grammys will look like this year, amidst the fires that have brought destruction and chaos to California this January, we know the nominees and we know (most of) the performers — enough to make educated guesses about some of the artists who might end up making for the night’s biggest stories.
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Breakout superstars Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan are both nominated in each of the Big Four categories, and also making their debuts as Grammy performers on Sunday. Veteran pop leaders Billie Eilish and Charli XCX are also major nominees and expected performers, while Taylor Swift and Beyoncé are similarly up for the top prizes and expected to attend — but not to perform. And a big wildcard remains Kendrick Lamar, the seven-time nominee who will take the stage at halftime of Super Bowl LIX the following Sunday night.
Who will end up the night’s biggest winners among these A-listers? And who might surprise some folks elsewhere in the awards? Billboard staffers discuss all these questions and more below.
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1. With most of the biggest names in the last year in pop music up for one or multiple of the top prizes on Sunday night, which star do you think stands to gain the most with a win or two in the Big Four categories?
Katie Atkinson: I would say the most to gain would be Chappell Roan, because she’s obviously reached incredible heights over the past year, but she’s still the kind of artist that your mom has maybe heard about on a morning show but doesn’t know her music. A big night on Sunday – anything from winning best new artist to sweeping the Big Four categories, à la Billie Eilish in 2020 – could turn her into a household name. Of course, Beyoncé finally winning album of the year would be a huge storyline, but what does Queen B still have to gain, honestly?
Eric Renner Brown: Charli XCX. She’s a well-established artist who’s had barely any Grammy recognition in the past (prior to this year, her two nominations were a decade ago, for Iggy Azalea’s “Fancy”), and she’s defined by her penchant for creative reinvention – so the possibility that she’ll be nominated in future years feels less inevitable than it does for many of her Big Four competitors. Given Brat’s crossover, zeitgeist-seizing appeal, as well as the eight nominations she secured, 2025 could well be Charli’s best shot at adding “Grammy-winner” to her resume.
Kyle Denis: I think it depends on the category. If Beyoncé takes home AOTY, that’s probably far and away the biggest story of the night; she gains a highly coveted honor that often eluded her, the Recording Academy gains some credibility back. If Kendrick Lamar takes either ROTY or SOTY (or both) with “Not Like Us,” that’s a major moment for him (first General Field victory ever), hip-hop (second-ever hip-hop song to win these categories after “This Is America” in 2019) and diss tracks (stamps “NLU” forever despite ongoing lawsuits).
Generally, however, I think Chappell Roan stands to gain the most with a win or two in the Big Four categories. Beyoncé and Lamar are already megastars, as are other GF nominees like Taylor Swift, Billie Eilish, Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga. A televised Grammy win gives Chappell an opportunity to win over the swaths of the public that still aren’t hip to her – and it’s the ultimate seal of approval for any musician. Between her incredible journey and what she means to so many young people across the country, any Chappell victory would be the night’s crowning moment.
Nonetheless, if The Beatles pull off that ROTY win, perhaps the night’s biggest winner is actually AI.
Jason Lipshutz: Beyoncé. While it’s tempting to say that fast-rising artists like Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan would reach a new level of stardom with major Grammy wins, both are unquestionable A-listers who are going to be at the forefront of pop for a long time, regardless of Sunday night’s outcome. Similarly, Taylor Swift and Billie Eilish have already taken home album of the year trophies (four of them for Swift!), and even if he goes home empty-handed, Kendrick Lamar gets to perform at the Super Bowl one week later. To me, Queen Bey has the most at stake, because this particular achievement remains the one box she has yet to check in a legendary professional career. If Cowboy Carter takes home album of the year, the win will feel momentous and career-capping in a way that it won’t for any other artist.
Andrew Unterberger: Charli XCX. For someone who’s spent the better part of the last decade at the fringes of the mainstream to emerge victorious in the starriest pop year the Grammys has had in ages would make for a true career-peak victory lap, and would further cement her place in the ruling class for years to come.
2. With so many big names in contention, at least one is almost guaranteed to go home empty-handed. Who do you think we’re most likely to be talking about as one of the night’s unfortunate shutouts?
Katie Atkinson: Though we now know she will be in the building, I think there’s a real chance Taylor Swift could go home empty-handed on Sunday. While she has six nominations, there just seems to be more buzz around so many other artists, especially in the top categories. That said, her clearest path to victory is in the best music video category, which she’s won twice before: for the cinematic “All Too Well: The Short Film” in 2023 and the star-studded “Bad Blood” video in 2016. It will be interesting to see if she does win in that category (for “Fortnight” with Post Malone) whether they’ll televise the typically pre-broadcast award to get Swift onstage.
Eric Renner Brown: When it comes to the Grammys, I’ve learned not to bet against Taylor Swift. So while I think that The Tortured Poets Department is a sharp decline from the quality of her previous Grammy-winning work – not to mention inferior to much of the other music she’s competing against – it’s still easy to envision Swift walking away with a bunch of Grammy gold this Sunday. Sadly, I’ve also learned not to bet on Beyoncé, after she seemed bound for album of the year victories that never came to pass in 2015, 2017 and 2023. Stiff competition or not, we’ve seen the most decorated artist in Grammy history walk away empty handed in this coveted category before – and beyond that category, this year, record and song of the year are both positively stacked.
Kyle Denis: I think that unlucky person might be Taylor this year. The Tortured Poets Department is the highest-selling album recognized across the show’s 90+ categories, but Grammys aren’t solely determined by commercial statistics. Of her three General Field races, Swift doesn’t appear to be a frontrunner in any of them. And last year’s AOTY victory for Midnights might spur voters to spread the wealth this year.
Jason Lipshutz: Chappell Roan, sadly. The Recording Academy has a long track record of nominating, but not rewarding, popular music that is provocative to the point of challenging listeners — think recent albums by Kendrick Lamar, Lana Del Rey and SZA, all of whom have yet to win a Big Four trophy. Roan’s daring approach to pop and unflinching public persona have connected with Gen Z and made her a superstar, but I predict they will not help her on Grammy Night.
Andrew Unterberger: Also Charli XCX. The competition is a little too stacked with longtime household names and/or artists with massive 2024 crossover hits; I fear Charli may still be just a little too fringey as an artist and figure to get the inside track here. (Not that this would be the worst thing for her either — maintaining a little underground edge will likely do her wonders in the long-term anyway.)
3. The Grammys are just as much about the performances as they are about the winners and losers these days. Among the announced performers, who could you see really cementing or improving their star status with a really memorable performance?
Katie Atkinson: Chappell Roan has built up such a reputation as a game-changing live act, drawing record crowds to every festival stage she hit in 2024. But we’ve really only gotten two major TV performances from her so far: her Joan of Arc moment at the MTV VMAs singing “Good Luck Babe!” and her “Pink Pony Club” and “The Giver” twofer on SNL. There’s a big opportunity for her to make a lasting impression on the Grammy audience – both to the fans who’ve already bought in and to the many people who have heard her name but have no idea what she’s about.
Eric Renner Brown: Doechii, without a doubt. Her star continues to rise following August’s Alligator Bites Never Heal – she just scored her first solo Hot 100 entry – and I’ve heard lots of chatter about her recent charismatic Late Show and Tiny Desk performances. She’s enjoying a moment and I think she’ll win over the large network TV audience on Music’s Biggest Night.
Kyle Denis: Doechii, hands down. Every time she hits an awards show stage, Doechii ends the night as one of the most talked-about performers. In the past few weeks, Doechii’s performances on The Late Show, NPR’s Tiny Desk and Genius Open Mic have helped grow both her cultural capital and commercial pull. I expect the Grammys to be no different — and an undeniable performance would coincide beautifully with the steady streaming gains for her Alligator Bites Never Heal mixtape, which could take home the Grammy for best rap album.
Jason Lipshutz: While casual pop fans are already familiar enough with artists like Carpenter and Roan, Benson Boone and Raye — two bold, talented live acts — have the opportunity to build upon the success of their respective breakthrough hits and elevate themselves in primetime. Raye can certainly deliver roof-rattling vocals; Boone is capable of backflipping into the arms of America. Each of them could walk out of the Grammys ceremony with a much bigger profile.
Andrew Unterberger: Ladies and gentlemen, once again: Charli XCX! While I think she leaves the awards empty-handed this year, I also think she leaves with the most dazzling performance, one that really pushes at the boundaries of what a Grammy performance can be — like Tyler, the Creator’s incendiary “New Magic Wand” from a half decade ago. It’s the win I think she should (and will) be most focused on for Sunday night anyway.
4. Beyond the big stars in the Big Four categories, who’s a slightly lesser-known artist who you could see maybe making some headlines and attracting some notice with a notable win or two on Grammy night?
Katie Atkinson: While RAYE is nominated for best new artist, I don’t think that’s where she’ll make her mark on Sunday. I think a (maybe televised?) songwriter of the year win combined with a sure-to-be captivating performance (it’s what she does best) could be her biggest look Stateside yet after she was all but coronated as the U.K.’s next big thing with her record-breaking six wins at the 2024 BRIT Awards. The Grammys being perfectly timed with her current single “Oscar Winning Tears.” breaking onto the Pop Airplay chart this week could be the recipe for a big post-Grammys breakthrough.
Eric Renner Brown: Before this year, the electronic music veteran Four Tet had only received two Grammy nominations, both for remixes of other artists’ work; now, his sublime 2024 album Three is nominated for best dance/electronic album, and its single “Loved” is up for best dance/electronic recording. Four Tet’s profile has blossomed in recent years, as he headlined Coachella and Madison Square Garden alongside Skrillex and Fred again.., so much so that he feels like a serious contender against his competition this year – and a Grammy win (or two) would be a fitting capstone for one of the dance world’s most prolific and tireless innovators.
Kyle Denis: If RAYE can translate one of her three nominations to her a win, I think that would be an amazing, star-making moment for her. She’s already cemented herself in the UK with her 2024 BRITs sweep and acclaimed tour and festival performances, but a Grammy win coupled with a dazzling performance could help her make some real strides in the States – especially on the heels of her forthcoming “Born Again” collaboration with LISA and Doja Cat.
Jason Lipshutz: Doechii is a long shot for best new artist, but as a hip-hop artist who’s been crossing over to a greater listenership for months, and a scheduled performer at the Grammys ceremony, she could cause an eruption of attention regardless of how she fares in the category. And if she pulls off an upset in the best rap album category, as the only woman nominated this year against superstars like Eminem, J. Cole and Future? Get ready for one of the most memorable acceptance speeches of the evening.
Andrew Unterberger: Fontaines D.C. The toast of the adult alternative world leveled up commercially in a big way this year, and I could see the band walking away with either or both of best rock album and best alternative music performance. You won’t see them on the main telecast, natch, but it should make for some nice headlines (and maybe a memorable pre-show acceptance speech) for the ascendant Irish quintet.
5. Outside of the educated guesses you’ve already made here, make one bold prediction for Grammy night.
Katie Atkinson: My hot take going into this year’s Grammys is that Doechii has a solid chance to be a spoiler in the best new artist category. I still think it’s Chappell’s to lose, but you can feel the buzz and respect around Doechii that’s been building for years. I vividly remember seeing her perform for the first time at the 2023 Billboard Women in Music event and being absolutely blown away by her talent, and she seems to have that effect on anyone who gets the chance to see her work her magic. She also has three other nominations down ballot, and if she could pick up one of those – maybe best rap album for the spellbinding Alligator Bites Never Heal and/or best rap performance for “NISSAN ALTIMA” – she has a real chance to make a lasting impression on Sunday night. And she’s performing too!
Eric Renner Brown: I love Khruangbin more than any of this year’s best new artist nominees. I also do not think Khruangbin should win best new artist – because Chappell and Doechii feel like generational talents; because several of these artists have had massive chart success, when Khruangbin has had virtually none; because Khruangbin has been around for more than a decade and a best new artist win for them would stretch the Grammys’ definition of “new” to a comical extreme. But the three things that are certain in life are death, taxes and the Grammys Grammy-ing – and Recording Academy voters disregarding all these arguments to award Khruanbgin best new artist would be such a classic example that it almost feels likely to me.
Kyle Denis: Whoever wins AOTY goes home with nothing else.
Jason Lipshutz: Taylor Swift is the most nominated artist in the history of the song of the year category, with eight career nods — but zero wins. That last part changes on Sunday: although I don’t think an album of the year win for The Tortured Poets Department is likely, “Fortnight,” her somehow-underrated duet with Post Malone, snaps her song of the year losing streak.
Andrew Unterberger: Chappell Roan decides against delivering another run-through of her much-nominated “Good Luck, Babe!” and instead opts for a pointed performance of LGBTQ anthem “Pink Pony Club” — with a guest appearance from Sir Elton John.
Though it pulled up just short of the top spot on the Billboard 200 last week, on this week’s chart (dated Jan. 25), Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos claims pole position.
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Fotos moves 203,500 units in its second frame — its first full week of release, after having been released on Sunday, Jan. 5, already two days into the prior tracking week. The set, which features Bad Bunny dipping into genres like salsa and plena that reflect his Puerto Rican roots, becomes the superstar’s fourth consecutive No. 1 on the chart, following 2020’s El Último Tour del Mundo, 2022’s Un Verano Sin Ti and 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana.
How did the album manage such a successful second week? And what does its success mean for the industry in general? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Debí Tirar Más Fotos climbs from No. 2 to No. 1 this week on the Billboard 200, in its first full week on the chart, to become his fourth consecutive No. 1 album on the chart. On a scale from 1-10, how significant an achievement is this for Bad Bunny?
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. After Debí Tirar Más Fotos started at No. 2 behind Lil Baby’s WHAM (albeit with a truncated first week), it was worth wondering whether the prospect of a new Bad Bunny album still commanded the same level of enthusiasm as it did four years ago, when he first began debuting in the top spot of the Billboard 200 without much issue. With the new album demonstrating its staying power on streaming and pushing to No. 1 in its second week, though, those minor concerns are put to rest. Regardless of where this album peaked, Bad Bunny remained an A-list superstar — but scoring another No. 1 album, which seems to be growing ever more mighty on streaming platforms, reiterates that he’s an A-list albums artist, too.
Sigal Ratner-Arias: A 10. Having four consecutive albums in Spanish reaching the No. 1 on the all-genre Billboard 200 is quite remarkable, if not historic, and I don’t think Bad Bunny takes it for granted either. Benito works hard, knows his audience, reinvents himself once and again while staying true to himself — and, in this case, he also did the extra work, with a huge promotional campaign after releasing the album on a Sunday.
Isabela Raygoza: 9. This accomplishment further highlights Bad Bunny’s exceptional star prowess. It’s important to note that he released the album on a Sunday, deviating from the standard new music release day of Friday. This timing meant that potential sales from a full cycle (seven days) were not captured in the album’s first week on the charts. It’s also important to consider that Lil Baby’s Wham! debuted at No. 1 with 140,000 first-week equivalent album units, while Bad Bunny initially landed at No. 2 with 122,000 units. However, what’s particularly remarkable is Bad Bunny’s streaming success; despite the non-traditional release day, Debí Tirar debuted at No. 1 on the Top Streaming Albums chart. This achievement exemplifies how his solid fan base and increasing streaming strength can significantly impact his chart performance.
Jessica Roiz: 10. This is the album that really hits home for him — lyrically and musically. Strikingly different from El Último Tour del Mundo — which became the first all-Spanish-language album to hit No. 1 on the Billboard 200 in the chart’s 64-year history — as an album with alternative edge and chill melodies, DtMF embodies the culture and sentiment of an entire island: Puerto Rico. A proud Boricua is what Bad Bunny has been showcasing in each of his perreo and trap projects since the getgo, but to reach No. 1 with a primarily tropical-laced reggaetón album, which also includes salsa, bomba, plena and a lot of Puerto Rican slang, takes the Billboard 200 champ to a whole nother level.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8.5. In a sense it’s business as usual for Benito — just another No. 1 album in what is now a long string of them — but to reach the apex in the album’s second week, and with such a massive number, really shows how excited listeners still are about Bad Bunny. His numbers were mostly still there on Nadie Sabe and its associated singles, but the excitement wasn’t, at least not to this degree.
2. While Bunny’s previous album Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana debuted at No. 1, it did so with a smaller first-week number (184,000) than Fotos posts in its second frame (203,500), and then fell to No. 4. What do you think is the biggest reason for the improved performance of this set?
Jason Lipshutz: It’s the same reason that Debí Tirar Más Fotos started off relatively slowly following its Sunday release, and has been growing by leaps and bounds since then — fans love this new album, although the non-Friday release following the holiday music season may have taken them a minute to embrace it as part of their listening diet. While Nadie Sabe offered a more diverse sonic palette than 2022’s crowd-pleasing Un Verano Sin Ti, the new album represents an anthemic homage to Bad Bunny’s native Puerto Rico, with “DtMF” as the type of standout single that its predecessor lacked. The high quality and accessibility of Fotos have positioned the project as potentially one of Bad Bunny’s biggest yet.
Sigal Ratner-Arias: A loyal fan base and word of mouth, as the album is more reminiscent of the eclectic and experimental vibe of Un Verano Sin Ti – this time infused with Puerto Rican rhythms like plena and salsa — than the more Latin trap-focused Nadie Sabe. An aggressive and fun campaign, with Benito giving more interviews and doing more promotion than with his last efforts; he’s been EVERYWHERE last week. And the announcement of his upcoming Puerto Rico live residency couldn’t be more timely.
Isabela Raygoza: The marked improvement in Bad Bunny’s latest album performance compared to its predecessor, Nadie Sabe, can be attributed to several factors. One is his emphasis on the revitalization of reggaetón — amid the rising popularity of regional Mexican music. In her article, “Regional Mexican Music Sounds & Feels Nothing Like Reggaetón — And That’s Partly Why It’s Dominating in 2023,” Leila Cobo discussed how listeners were beginning to experience genre fatigue with reggaetón (and its repetitive themes of overt sexualization), turning instead to the storytelling and acoustic resonance of regional Mexican music. This trend seemed to forecast a decline in reggaetón’s dominance within Latin music circles. However, Bad Bunny’s latest album challenges this prediction by recentering reggaetón (“Voy a Llevarte Pa PR,” “Veldá”). He has effectively sustained and bolstered the genre’s appeal (as widely evinced in my block in Bushwick, New York), proving its enduring relevance.
Also noteworthy: Bad Bunny intersperses this album with rich, native Puerto Rican styles like salsa, plena, and jíbara. These traditional genre inclusions amplify a sense of Puerto Rican cultural pride and authenticity, significantly resonating with a broader Latino audience. Meanwhile, within the icy trap of Nadie Sabe, he seemed somewhat removed — highlighting the isolations of unattainable superstardom, reinforced by his lack of media interviews around that era. This time, Benito made discernible efforts to re-engage with his audience, becoming more accessible and relatable. Plus, his bare feet and stripped-down attire in his press shots add an authentic and approachable flair.
Jessica Roiz: The impressive marketing plan. Bad Bunny began to tease us with new music as early as one month before the album dropped with the set’s first single “El Clúb.” Though fans didn’t know it was part of an album, we just KNEW he had something up his sleeves. Similar to how he did with YHLQMDLG and Un Verano Sin Tí, the artist began to post clues across social media leading to the album’s release, including a very conceptual short film and hinting at a bomb track list on X. Fans were excited and on edge, waiting for this release — something he didn’t do with his 2023 Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, which dropped as a complete surprise.
Andrew Unterberger: I think this set just has a little bit of a stronger identity than Nadie Sabe, which felt a little all over the place, and not in the fun and satisfying manner of Un Verano‘s eclecticism. It’s a new identity for Bad Bunny, which probably explains why it took the set a little longer to take off — and why none of the advance singles had a big debut outside of the set’s larger context — but taken as a whole, it’s unquestionably one of his most rewarding and exciting full-lengths to date.
3. The set’s quasi-title track, “DtMF,” is the clear breakout track so far — jumping to No. 2 on the Hot 100 this week — despite being buried near the end of the album. Why do you think listeners have latched onto the track as quickly and as enthusiastically as they have?
Jason Lipshutz: The combination of the plinking percussion, extended build-up to the chorus and the enormous call-and-response hook make “DtMF” irresistible upon first listen. Although it doesn’t fully unfurl until nearly halfway through the track, the “DtMF” chorus is a blockbuster, both subtly swaying in Benito’s delivery and ecstatic in the way his backing chorus echoes his words. Until then, the three-note, shape-shifting beat does the heavy lifting, giving him the space to wax poetic about missed connections and his beloved community.
Sigal Ratner-Arias: A highly nostalgic song about appreciating the simple things in life and missing people and moments passed, “DtMF” – initials of the album’s title, which means “I should have taken more photos” – has connected deeply with the audience both for its lively combination of plena and reggaetón, and its profound lyrics. The fact that it is the second to last song on a 17-track album goes to show how much Bad Bunny’s followers are listening.
Isabela Raygoza: I believe the song’s impressive ascent can largely be attributed to its role as the crux of the album. Functioning almost like a thesis statement, it distills the album’s overarching themes into a compelling, catchy track. “We’re here for the things that are worth doing/ For the perreo, the salsa, the bomba and the plena/ I should have taken more pictures of when I had you” he sings, reinforcing the theme against a stripped-down, laid-back rhythm. It’s an invitation to focus on meaningful activities and cultural expressions. This connectivity aspect, paired with the emotional resonance, captures the essence of what fans love about Bad Bunny’s music: It’s vibrant, thoughtful and deeply rooted in cultural tradition.
Jessica Roiz: Simply put, it’s the deep sense of nostalgia the lyrics carry. “DtMF” is about living in the moment and capturing those moments in photos so they can last a lifetime. Furthermore, Bunny reflects on his own lack of taking photos (hence the title “I should’ve taken more photos) and how quickly life has passed by, mainly overshadowed by fame and his luxurious lifestyle: “We are no longer for the movie and the gold chains/ We look for things that are worth it,” he poignantly articulates.
Andrew Unterberger: I mean, wow, what a chorus. “DtMF” doesn’t sound like an obvious top 40 hit — at least not in this country — but you only need to hear that anthemic refrain one time to understand the song’s commercial potential. (Helps, of course, that the song also features a run through the chorus that just sounds like a crowd singalong, allowing fans to imagine how much fun belting it out as part of a crowd of many thousands of fans will undoubtedly be this summer.)
4. “DtMF” is still blocked from No. 1 on the Hot 100 by “Die With a Smile,” Bruno Mars’ and Lady Gaga’s radio-friendlier duet. Do you think it will be able to get over the top on the chart, or will No. 2 ultimately be its best showing?
Jason Lipshutz: I’d expect “DtMF” to hit No. 1 sooner than later, as the biggest new hit of the first month of 2025, and what looks like one of the signature smashes of Bad Bunny’s prime in the spotlight. For this song to stall at No. 2 would underscore what it, and Bad Bunny, accomplished here; he more than deserves a solo No. 1 song on the Hot 100, and “DtMF” will likely burst through that ceiling.
Sigal Ratner-Arias: Yes, I do. I think it will likely climb to No. 1 in the next week or two. “DTMF” has taken on a life of its own on social media, with people using the song to soundtrack special moments in their life. It’s definitely become a trend on IG and TikTok and that could ultimately give it a big push.
Isabela Raygoza: Predicting its potential to reach No. 1 can be complex, especially considering the historical challenges Spanish-language tracks face in securing the top spot on the Hot 100 chart. Notably, Bad Bunny’s only No. 1 on this all-genre prestigious chart came in 2018 as a feature on Cardi B’s bilingual hit “I Like It,” which also included J Balvin. The only other No. 1 Latin songs are these three: Los Lobos’ “La Bamba” (1987), Los del Río’s “Macarena” (1995), and Luis Fonsi & Daddy Yankee’s “Despacito,” feat. Justin Bieber (2017). While the odds are challenging, the growing popularity of “DtMF” and Bad Bunny’s solid fan base give it a fighting chance to climb to the top. Achieving that milestone would be a huge moment for Spanish-language music.
Jessica Roiz: I think it can potentially and eventually reach No. 1. The song is having a strong resonance on social media, where people across Instagram and TikTok, to name a few, are interacting with its heartfelt lyrics and soft plena melodies and sharing some of their best memories with loved ones.
Andrew Unterberger: I’ll be rooting for it, but it’s gonna be tough for it to get past “Die With a Smile.” That song is still a strong performer in both streaming and sales, and it has the inside track on radio, where “DtMF” will be unlikely to catch up to it. As we saw in 2024 with Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song,” when you’re a consistent performer in all three of those components, you can stay at No. 1 for a long, long time — and “Smile” might only be getting started there.
5. The runaway success of Fotos is hardly shocking coming from an artist of Bunny’s size and caliber, but the arc of its first couple weeks is still unusual enough to make people take notice. What lessons, if any, do you think the rest of the industry can take from its early triumphs?
Jason Lipshutz: We’ve learned time and again that, in the modern music industry, patience is a virtue. If there’s a great artist who has yet to cross over with real hits, give them a few years — they might be Sabrina Carpenter. If there’s a great album that went relatively unnoticed in its release week, maybe a grassroots following turns it into the next The Rise & Fall of a Midwest Princess. If a former hitmaker hasn’t connected recently, their Brat Summer might be lurking around the corner. Debí Tirar Más Fotos may not have debuted at No. 1 and missed commercial expectations in its first week of release, but by that second week, Bad Bunny had demonstrated his superstar might; the world just needed a little extra time to plug in to his vision.
Sigal Ratner-Arias: Bad Bunny told Billboard something pretty significant this week: the purpose of releasing his album on a Sunday, on the eve of Three Kings Day, was bringing together generations in Puerto Rico and honor his country and its culture — even if that meant that his performance on the charts would suffer. At a time where we see artists release the same album in multiple formats and colors over the months in order to stay on top, it is refreshing to see that a superstar like Bad Bunny is more focused on making art with a clear message and purpose.
Isabela Raygoza: The early success of the album offers valuable insights, particularly in the power of integrating cultural authenticity that resonates with a diverse audience. It highlights the importance of artists maintaining a genuine connection with their fan base and evolving their music to align with changing tastes.
Jessica Roiz: I go back to the remarkable promo plan this album has had, including taking the role of a news anchor at a local Puerto Rican TV station, co-hosting The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon and giving a free concert in Rio Piedras, Bunny was not afraid to double down on promotion. Add in his just-announced ambitious 30-date residency at El Coliseo, and Bad Bunny really didn’t hold back in building buzz around his new set, something other artists could learn from.
Andrew Unterberger: I think there’s a bunch of lessons to be had here, but one I might zero in on is that single performance isn’t necessarily a barometer for parent-album success in 2025. Neither “El Clúb” or “Pitorro de Coco” debuted within the top 50 of the Hot 100, which could have been taken as a sign that Fotos was bound to underperform commercially. But Bad Bunny is an albums artist first and foremost — most of the biggest global pop stars are at this point — and those songs hit much harder in full-LP context. Now, not only are both songs top 50 hits, but the album has landed three other songs in the chart’s top 10, with room still to grow. Trust in the strength of the your album, and the hits will come.
For the fourth time in four tries this decade, Lil Baby has the No. 1 album in the country.
The rap star’s latest, WHAM (which stands for Who Hard as Me), bows atop the Billboard 200 this week (dated Jan. 18) with 140,000 first-week units. It follows the No. 1 debuts of 2020’s My Turn, 2021’s The Voice of the Heroes (with Lil Durk) and 2022’s It’s Only Me — albeit with the lowest first-week number of the four sets, and only one track debuting in the Billboard Hot 100‘s top 40: the Future and Young Thug collab “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” (No. 16).
What does the album bow mean for Lil Baby’s stardom? And what should he be focusing more on with his future album releases? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. WHAM debuts at No. 1 with 140,000 equivalent album units moved. On a scale from 1-10, how happy do you think Lil Baby should be with that first-week performance?
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Kyle Denis: A strong 8. Pulling a six-figure opening week is nothing to scoff at, and Lil Baby has done it with his last three studio albums. WHAM’s numbers are even more impressive when you consider that the album doesn’t include any of the three solo standalone singles (“5AM,” “Insecurities” and “Touchdown”) he dropped leading up to the record’s full release. Given the lukewarm reception to WHAM online from casual and devoted fans alike, WHAM’s first-week performance is a triumph for Baby.
Carl Lamarre: 10. I’m beyond elated if I’m Baby, because the internet wasn’t thinking too fondly of my release. Plus, I escaped Bad Bunny by a millisecond after he dropped his album two days after mine. For Baby, he’s no longer the indomitable force he was after his volcanic opus My Turn blitzed the industry in 2020. There’s no reason why LiAngelo Ball, an overnight success, should generate more traction than an established superstar like Baby to start the calendar year. Despite those glaring concerns, Baby ended up on top, and that’s what matters most.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. Releasing an album in the opening week of the year can be a little dicey, as listeners divert their attentions away from Christmas music and refocus following their holiday breaks. Lil Baby placed a bet on being the biggest game in town once the calendar flipped over to 2025, and sure enough, he snagged another No. 1 debut — with a lower equivalent album units total than 2022’s It’s Only Me, but with a track list roughly half as long as its predecessor hampering streams a bit, so a six-figure bow is pretty impressive.
Michael Saponara: I think he’s gotta be at a 9. To outsell Bad Bunny and debut at No. 1 after Baby’s 2024 singles weren’t generating a ton of buzz is a major W.
Andrew Unterberger: At least an 8. Yes, things might’ve tilted differently if Bad Bunny had a full first week to work with, but the fact that Benito made such a late charge and Baby still ended up on top — while also eclipsing SZA’s revitalized SOS blockbuster — is no small feat, and speaks to the rapper’s continued resonance.
2. The star-studded “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” with Future and Young Thug is the set’s top debut on the Billboard Hot 100, entering in the top 20. Does it feel like a long-lasting hit, or is it mostly bowing so high on the strength of its guest list?
Kyle Denis: This doesn’t feel like a long-lasting hit to me, and it feels particularly tepid for Thugger’s first post-prison verse. I’d be surprised if any of the WHAM songs stick around and become hits on the level of “We Paid” or “Sum 2 Prove.” Maybe the Dominique album will fare better in that arena.
Carl Lamarre: The more I listen to it, the more I like it, but I don’t see it having the endurance of being a long-lasting hit. A torrid Future coming off three No. 1 albums in ’24 alongside Thug’s first post-jail verse should be enough to blow the top off any record, but I don’t think these guys really brought their A-game this time. It felt more like a scrimmage versus a full-throttled performance.
Jason Lipshutz: Although it might never climb higher on the Hot 100 than its current peak, I think it’s going to endure. “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” was obviously newsworthy as Young Thug’s return to the microphone, but Lil Baby and Future match his level of urgency on the track; the beat, co-produced by Wheezy, wails and pummels, letting all three stars rise toward its intensity without relenting for a chorus. That lack of a hook might limit its crossover potential, but I’d bet on “Dum, Dumb and Dumber” continuing to accrue millions of streams and dominate hip-hop playlists in the coming months.
Michael Saponara: Young Thug’s first spotlighted verse since being released from jail combined with a Future reunion is a formula for commercial success. Baby capitalized on the moment and it’s a solid three-man weave between the Atlanta trio, but I don’t see it having a ton of staying power in the Hot 100’s top 25.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a strong song, and I don’t think it’s going to disappear from the culture completely, but I dunno if it really has enough of a hook — either in terms of a chorus or just an overall narrative coherence — to really keep listeners coming back. It’s great to hear those three voices together on a track again, though, no doubt.
3. Bad Bunny debuts just underneath Baby with his new set Debí Tirar Más Fotos, which notches 122,000 in an incomplete first week. Given that the album was released on a Sunday, already a full two days into the tracking week, do you think it’ll have a good shot at climbing to No. 1 on next week’s chart?
Kyle Denis: Absolutely. Bad Bunny dropped a compelling project, and it’s resonating with people as several songs on the album morph into breakout streaming hits around the world. Between viral quotes from a Rolling Stone interview, an NYC subway takeover, a short film, and co-hosting The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon, Bad Bunny has been extremely present throughout the past week, which will only help the second-week performance of Debí Tirar Más Fotos. Of course, Benito is also getting a lot of good press for his innovative approach to ticketing for his upcoming Puerto Rico residency.
But this record also already has much more positive word of mouth than his last LP, 2023’s Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana, and that’s probably the clearest sign that DTMF momentum is just getting started.
Carl Lamarre: I don’t see Baby’s album securing another week at No. 1 for this cycle. The fact that Bunny was only 18,000 units shy of sealing another No. 1 album after an incomplete week is telling, and worrisome for Camp Baby. There’s more chatter surrounding Bunny’s album because of the storytelling, the chances he took sonically, and the ingenious rollout. Bunny’s Rolling Stone interview and recent subway performance with Jimmy Fallon resonated more with people than Baby’s conversation with Charlamagne and his late-night outings.
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. If you take a peek at daily streaming charts, Bad Bunny’s new album is not just performing strongly but seems to be gaining momentum, with the crackling “DtMF” leading a slew of tracks that will likely fly up the Hot 100 chart next week. The Sunday release helped prevent Bad Bunny from scoring another No. 1 album himself, but he’s got a great shot at getting there next week, especially considering that there are no new Lil Baby-sized debuts to for Debí Tirar Más Fotos to compete with.
Michael Saponara: Yeah, Bad Bunny should do another solid number next week as the tracks are still streaming well across DSPs. However, Mac Miller’s posthumous Balloonerism arrives on Friday (Jan. 17) which could interrupt Benito’s run at No. 1 pretty quickly should he claim the top spot next week.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah it certainly should be considered a frontrunner to claim the top spot in the next couple weeks. Really cool to see Bad Bunny on track to another enduring full-length, in the wintertime no less.
4. Lil Baby’s career momentum has been trending somewhat in the wrong direction since the 2020 breakthrough of My Turn made him one of the biggest stars in hip-hop. Does WHAM and the early reception to it give you confidence that he can turn that around?
Kyle Denis: My biggest gripe with WHAM is how Baby is seemingly unwilling to deviate from the formula established with his mixtapes and first three albums. The record lacks standout moments, but it’s not a poor collection of songs – he’s just not pushing himself in meaningful or interesting ways. As it stands, Wham tells me that Baby is okay not fulfilling the role of “generation leader” that many tried to cast him in back in 2020. I think Baby has the talent to turn his momentum around, but it’s probably more of a matter of how happy he is with where he’s currently at.
Carl Lamarre: For Baby to land back-to-back No. 1 albums despite falling flat musically speaks a lot to his fanbase. They still believe in him because of his Herculean effort on My Turn. In 2020, he accomplished what few fail to do in the modern-day rap era: conquer the charts and, more importantly, the hearts of listeners. That’s why fans of artists like Roddy Ricch still have hope, as he achieved that same feat with his 2019 debut album. But, like Roddy, Baby is possibly down to his last strike after failing to connect on his previous two projects.
Jason Lipshutz: Lil Baby is an interesting case study in 2020s hip-hop, where an artist can score multiple No. 1 albums and top 10 Hot 100 hits, remain a constant presence on New Music Friday through solo tracks and collaborations, command a sizable touring audience, and yet simultaneously feel like momentum is flagging because the genre is so focused on new voices and achievements. Over the past half-decade, Lil Baby has hunkered down on a winning formula, but also hasn’t taken the artistic chances that can help superstars grow into icons. The chart-topping success of WHAM is in line with what he’s done in the past, and there’s nothing wrong with those commercial wins — but taking the next step as a leader in hip-hop may require an evolution.
Michael Saponara: Turn it around to the level of 2019-2021 Lil Baby? No, but WHAM is a step in the right direction. The test will come next month as Baby already said his Dominique album is slated to arrive in February. Is the appetite for another solo body of work there just a month out? As the great Lee Corso would say, “Not so fast, my friend!”
Andrew Unterberger: It shows me that he still has the fan support that if he ever does release the right project to turn things around, it won’t be too late for him to actually do so. I don’t think this is necessarily the project for that though — it’s solid, but doesn’t really advance his artistry or sound in any meaningful way, so it seems unlikely to have an extensive impact outside of that core fanbase.
5. If you could advise Lil Baby on his next release, is there any particular direction or area of focus you’d recommend he zero in on? Anything to really recapture the excitement of his turn-of-the-‘20s run?
Kyle Denis: Lock in with one executive producer – either Section 8, Twysted Genius, or someone brand new – and try to get back to the headspace that made you sound so voracious on your biggest and best records. And keep making sure those tracklists are tight and concise, WHAM was a good step in that direction.
Carl Lamarre: I would ease down on the Autotune and tap more into his heartfelt bag like he did the intro and outro of WHAM. I thought “Listen Up” and “Streets Colder” showed flashes of the old Baby regarding candor and vulnerability. That’s what made songs like “Emotionally Scarred” and “The Bigger Picture” instant classics upon first listen. Ultimately, he could be back in everyone’s good graces if he can connect the dots and inject that same pathos into his bars on the next album.
Jason Lipshutz: I find it interesting that “The Bigger Picture” — a smart, incisive single that captured the energy around the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests — has yet to receive a proper follow-up, or anything too overtly political, from Lil Baby. Maybe he’s not interested in that lane, but his level of thoughtfulness, refined flow and broad appeal would help him dominate it, if he so chooses.
Michael Saponara: Instead of coming back next month with another solo project, I’d say to finish the joint album he teased with Future and mix in some Young Thug. I think that would really galvanize his fan base and put the rest of the rap game on notice while holding his own with a pair of his heavyweight ATL peers.
Andrew Unterberger: The answer is almost always “focus” — make an album that feels a little more purposeful in its songs, track ordering, guest list and overall messaging. I might also encourage Baby to do a team-up album with a younger, ascending rap star, someone who can maybe challenge him a little and get him a little more motivated to prove himself and his continued supremacy.
We have our first new Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 of 2025 — and it’s with a song that was already on the chart for 18 weeks in 2024.
With the seasonal glut of holiday songs vacating the chart in this post-Christmas tracking week, Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars‘ “Die With a Smile” jumps from No. 17 to No. 1 on the Hot 100, seizing the top spot for the first time after previously peaking at No. 2 multiple times in 2024. The song gives Gaga her sixth No. 1 on the chart, and Mars (who also ranks at No. 5 this week with the ROSÉ team up “APT.”) his ninth.
How surprised are we that the song finally claimed the top spot after such a long run? And what might be the next leftover 2024 hit to succeed it on top? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. “Die With a Smile” finally hits No. 1 on the Hot 100 in the first post-holidays week of 2025 after being held to a ceiling of No. 2 on the chart in 2024. On a scale from 1-10, how surprised are you that the song was finally able to get over the top?
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Rania Aniftos: Maybe a 1. With the holiday songs dropping off the charts, and no new hits to claim the top spot, “Die With a Smile” was an easy contender to take over the Hot 100 given how often it plays everywhere, from department stores and restaurants to radio stations and every Spotify playlist.
Katie Atkinson: 8. When “Die” peaked at No. 2 in early December, I was certain that it had fallen victim to the inevitable avalanche of holiday hits coming to the Hot 100 top 10. But at the same time, with its biggest non-Christmas challenger being Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — which had seemingly run its course with a record-typing 19th week atop the chart — the path cleared for the determined duet. I really shouldn’t be that surprised, though: I’ve been championing this song (on the Billboard Pop Shop Podcast and to any friends and family who will listen) since the summer, because while I liked the song when it first came out, I grew to love it even more in the months after, showing just how powerful its appeal was.
Kyle Denis: 4. For “Smile,” it was always a matter of when, not if, it would reach the top spot. Before Kendrick Lamar’s GNX chart bomb and the Mariah Carey-led holiday music takeover, “Smile” logged four straight weeks at No. 2 behind Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” — and the gap between the two was getting steadily shrinking.
We haven’t gotten a major pop single in 2025 yet (for what it’s worth, neither Lil Baby’s nor Bad Bunny’s albums appear to be launching a breakout hit), and “Smile” was due for a turn at the top. If we look at the most recent Hot 100 top 10: “Birds of A Feather,” “Espresso,” “Lose Control” and “I Had Some Help” are all older than “Smile” and have had their time in the sun, while rising hits like “APT,” “That’s So True” and “Luther” need a bit more time to catch up to “Smile” in terms of chart points.
Jason Lipshutz: A 6. It’s surprising whenever any autumn hit is able to power through the holiday season and come out on top to start the new year, but by November, “Die With a Smile” clearly seemed like the song that could make it happen in early 2025, if any could. Amidst the Mariah, Brenda and Wham!, Bruno and Gaga held strong near the top of the chart in December, setting themselves up to swoop in once the holiday music subsided and scoop up another No. 1 each. Once it was clear that “Die With a Smile” had real legs as a months-long hit, reaching the top of the Hot 100 was always a possibility for the duet.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8. Once it failed to edge out Shaboozey in what ended up being the historic 19th week atop the Hot 100 for “A Bar Song” — and then got buried under the avalanche of Kendrick Lamar debuts and Christmas recurrents — I thought for sure “Smile” had missed its last best chance. But it held strong, nothing else swooped in from the wings, and it gets to be a very nice kickoff to what’s sure to big a big 2025 for both artists.
2. Between Bruno Mars and Lady Gaga, which of the two artists do you think the song means more to?
Rania Aniftos: Gaga! She’s been off the music game for a moment, shifting her focus to her makeup brand and film roles, so the accomplishment probably provides a sense of validation while she’s working on her new album.
Katie Atkinson: Even though it’s a duet, “Die With a Smile” has felt more like a Bruno Mars song (featuring Lady Gaga) to me than an equal billing. But looking at the two stars’ other concurrent releases – ROSÉ’s “APT.” for Mars and Gaga’s “Disease” – “APT.” has had the much stronger start, peaking at No. 5 compared to No. 27 for the LG7 lead single, so it looks like Gaga gets the bigger boost from what feels like a Bruno-led production. (And in fact, Gaga told the Los Angeles Times last month that “Die” will be on LG7, so it obviously means a lot to her: “It’s a huge part of my album. It was like this missing piece.”)
Kyle Denis: Probably Gaga. Between the tepid response to Joker 2, Harlequin and “Disease,” it must feel nice to get a win somewhere this year.
Jason Lipshutz: Gaga, for sure. “Die With a Smile” may announce Mars’ grand return following multiple years without a song released under his own name, but he’s already collected another top 10 hit since its release, with the ROSÉ team-up “APT.” Gaga, meanwhile, launched her next solo era with “Disease,” an electro-pop single that stalled on the Hot 100. Both artists’ respective legacies have long been secure, but from a modern commercial standpoint, “Die With a Smile” extends Gaga’s run as a hitmaker with more gravity than it does for Mars.
Andrew Unterberger: It means more about Bruno Mars, but it means more to Lady Gaga.
3. Gaga’s releases the past six months have been a little all over the place, between the big country-coded rock balladry of “Smile,” the traditional pop vocal project Harlequin and the Classic Gaga sound of “Disease.” Do you think “Smile” likely tells us anything about where she’s going next, or are the differing sounds of her two subsequent releases a sign that it was more of a one-off?
Rania Aniftos: I’m actually pretty confused with how different her releases have been lately. “Die With a Smile” feels like it could fit in her Joanne era, which makes me think that it won’t be indicative of her upcoming album. “Disease” is more in line with what I picture for her. Pop and visually and sonically creative with a dark edge. Maybe the older, more angsty sister of The Fame Monster.
Katie Atkinson: I think what likely started as a one-off will end up influencing what Gaga does next more than even she expected. If “Disease” was the original first impression from LG7, it seems that “Die” is the more lasting one, as far as pop fans are concerned. It remains to be seen whether we’ll hear that album in February, as was originally said in a Vogue interview, or whether some extra tinkering might have been done to weave her hit duet into the fabric of her next album.
Kyle Denis: I think we probably need to take all these releases as a collective indicator of what’s sure to be a sonically adventurous project. In a Q&A before the screening of her Gaga Chromatica Ball tour, Gaga said that her new music is “nothing like anything that I’ve ever made before. I love to break genre and I love to explore music. There’s something really beautiful about knowing that you will be loved no matter what you do.”
If “Hold My Hand” (her 2022 Oscar-nominated Top Gun: Maverick power ballad), “Sweet Sounds of Heaven” (her 2023 Rolling Stones collab), “Smile” and the electroclash influences of “Disease” are anything to go by, I’m expecting LG8 to be the most rock-oriented Gaga album yet.
Jason Lipshutz: It’s the million-dollar question: will the next Gaga album sound closer to “Disease,” which the superstar hinted at when releasing the lead single, or will it be sonically re-shuffled now that “Die With a Smile” — which will indeed appear on its track list, per Gaga — has become an unexpected smash? I’d guess that we land somewhere in the middle, with the next project veering away from the Chromatica electro-pop sound to some extent but still serving as a suitable home for a song like “Disease.” Maybe that makes the album a little less cohesive than expected, but with a few more chances taken — usually a good thing for Gaga.
Andrew Unterberger: I dunno. It’s impossible to triangulate these three Gaga releases and their wildly varying levels of commercial success and determine coherent musical project that could result from all of it. We’re really just gonna have to wait and see on this one.
4. While “Die With a Smile” hits No. 1, Mars’ other big collab of late 2024, the ROSÉ teamup “APT.,” also reaches the top five for the first time. Which of the two songs do you think will ultimately be the more significant or defining hit of this Bruno mini-era?
Rania Aniftos: Another tough question, because they’re so different and both collaborations felt so natural to him as an artist. With how much love the K-pop fans have shown Bruno thanks to “APT.,” I could see him having fun with more team-ups within that genre. He’s also so deeply funny, and fans love seeing him lean into his playful side, as we saw when Silk Sonic swept the Grammys and the rest of pop culture in 2023.
Katie Atkinson: It has to be “Die With a Smile” because, again, it feels more like a Bruno song to me, whereas the spotlight is firmly on the arrival of ROSÉ with “APT.” Mars has offered up a veteran boost to the promising BLACKPINK breakout star, but he’s playing in her sandbox with that one, while “Die” is a patented ultra-romantic Mars moment.
Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to say “APT” because it pushes Bruno in a more interesting sonic direction than “Smile” and helps him be a part of history: ROSÉ is now the first female K-pop soloist to reach the Hot 100’s top 10 and top five. When all is said and done, however, my money is on “Smile” being the bigger hit by the numbers.
Jason Lipshutz: “Die With a Smile” is the bigger hit across metrics, but do not underestimate the significance of the first Hot 100 top 10 hit from any member of BLACKPINK, a multi-lingual global smash that helped unlock a new listenership to a member of one of the biggest K-pop groups in history. Maybe “Die With a Smile” becomes a new-school karaoke standard, school-dance jam and radio mainstay, but I believe “APT.” will ultimately have the bigger cultural footprint.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a little hard for me to imagine “Die With a Smile” ultimately being a particularly significant song to the career or legacy of either Lady Gaga or Bruno Mars, but obviously “APT.” is a major moment in the career of ROSÉ — and, depending on how things go from here, could potentially also end up being a pretty significant turning point for all of top 40. For that reason I feel like “APT.” is apt to be the better-remembered of the two songs in general.
5. Which song that has been active on the Hot 100 in 2024 but not yet reached the top spot do you think has the best shot of following “Smile” to No. 1?
Rania Aniftos: Justice for “APT.”! I know it took a while for some music lovers to warm up to the sound, but you can’t deny it’s one of the catchiest songs of the last six months. Additionally, I’d love to see Rosé get a No. 1 spot as a solo artist.
Katie Atkinson: My heart says that “APT.” has the juice to work its way to No. 1, but I’m also seeing that Gracie Abrams’ biggest hit yet “That’s So True” doesn’t have a music video to this point. If she could create a buzzy enough video moment (I’m imagining her movie-star boyfriend Paul Mescal playing a role, à la Sabrina Carpenter enlisting then-partner Barry Keoghan for her first Hot 100 No. 1, “Please Please Please”), she could definitely take advantage of a sleepy January.
Kyle Denis: Provided she pulls off yet another Grammy sweep, Billie could finally take “Birds” to No. 1. Kendrick Lamar could achieve something similar with “Luther” — or another GNX cut – following his own potential Grammy sweep, his Super Bowl halftime show, or both. Given their familiarity, I’d give either of those two songs the edge over “APT.” and “That’s So True.” I also have my eye on Lola Young’s “Messy,” which is a bit further down the chart at No. 25.
Jason Lipshutz: Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” ended 2024 with a ton of momentum, becoming the singer-songwriter’s first top 10 hit in the same month that she helped Taylor Swift close out the Eras tour and made her Saturday Night Live debut. We’ll see how much more juice the song has over the next few weeks, but “That’s So True” could very easily keep climbing from its peak and challenge for No. 1.
Andrew Unterberger: To me, it’s a question of which radio embraces more between “APT.” and “That’s So True.” Given that one of the two performers on the former is perhaps the most consistent pop radio force of the last 15 years, my money’s on that one.
As the holiday catalog rush threatens to subsume the entirety of popular music this week, one breakout artist debuts an entirely new LP on the top five of the Billboard 200 albums chart (dated Dec. 21): ROSÉ.
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The BLACKPINK alum bows at No. 3 this week — behind a sales-surging Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department and a still-hot Kendrick Lamar’s GNX — with her debut solo set Rosie, which moves a very strong 102,000 units in its first week. The album, which features a who’s who of notable pop writers and producers in its credits, is also led by a hit collab with global superstar Bruno Mars, “APT.”
Does the set have another likely hit on it? And what should ROSÉ do next to take advantage of her current momentum? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. ROSÉ debuts at No. 3 on the Billboard 200 this week with Rosie, moving 102,000 equivalent album units. If you’re ROSÉ or one of her team members, how excited are you feeling about that bow, on a scale of 1-10?
Rania Aniftos: I’m thinking 9. Sure, it’s not No. 1, but to rank so highly on the Billboard 200 with your debut album as a solo artist is a major accomplishment. It also must be validating for ROSÉ to know that while she’s a major star in BLACKPINK, she can also hold strong on her own.
Christopher Claxton: On a scale of 1-10, I’d say I’m at a solid 9 — not quite a 10 yet because the ultimate goal is always No. 1. That said, landing a debut album at No. 3 on the Billboard 200 is an incredible achievement, especially considering how competitive the charts are right now. It’s a testament to the hard work of ROSÉ and her team, as well as the unwavering support of her fans. This milestone sets the stage for even bigger moments in the future, and it’s exciting to see what’s next!
Kyle Denis: A strong 8. Obviously, the prestige of hitting No. 1 on the Billboard 200 is something every artist strives for, but +100k units shifted first week and a No. 3 bow aren’t anything to scoff at. Clearly, there’s a sizable audience that has bought into ROSÉ beyond BLACKPINK and arguably beyond “APT.” — the song is still going strong, but Rosie’s opening-week numbers didn’t benefit from that song’s massive first few weeks.
Jason Lipshutz: An 8. Considering that Taylor Swift’s mega-selling (and newly re-stocked) The Tortured Poets Department and Kendrick Lamar’s recent surprise release GNX are still going strong at the top of the Billboard 200, a No. 3 bow for ROSÉ should be treated as a big win. History tells us that solo projects from members of global pop groups are not guaranteed any fraction of commercial success, so ROSÉ kicking off her solo run with a six-figure equivalent album units debut, in addition to a top 10 hit on the Billboard Hot 100, represents a launch that’s well above average.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8 feels right. A six-digit bow for ROSÉ is a very big deal, and if you’re going to debut at No. 3 in the year 2024, Taylor Swift and Kendrick Lamar are definitely the two artists you are most comfortable with falling behind.
2. Obviously much of the interest around Rosie is centered around “APT.,” the Bruno Mars collab that has topped the Global 200 for the last eight weeks. After debuting at No. 8 on the Hot 100, the song has been buried somewhat in recent weeks by the deluge of holiday songs — but do you think the song still has the legs to keep growing into one of the defining hits of early 2025?
Rania Aniftos: I feel like SZA’s deluxe album will dominate the start of 2025, just like S.O.S did at the beginning of 2023. However, I certainly don’t think we’ve seen the end of “APT.” They’ve only performed it once and, who knows? Maybe they’ll add another star on a remix to amplify it even more.
Christopher Claxton: “APT.” has already proven itself as a global heavyweight, holding the No. 1 spot on the Global 200 for eight weeks —a huge accomplishment. While the track’s Hot 100 placement has dwindled due to the holiday season, its appeal remains the same. Once the sessional surge subsides, I believe this record has a strong chance of making a comeback, especially with its strong fanbase support and Bruno Mars’ signature touch.
Kyle Denis: Absolutely. Once consumers and radio programmers have finished up their holiday break, they’re going to be on the hunt for pop songs that have a bit of familiarity but don’t feel as overplayed as some of 2024 biggest hits. That’s exactly where songs like “APT,” Kendrick’s trio of instant GNX smashes and Gracie Abrams’ “That’s So True” come in. “APT” still hasn’t gotten a remix or a Stateside live performance with both ROSÉ and Bruno present, there’s definitely room to grow.
Jason Lipshutz: We’ll see if “APT.” can surpass its No. 8 peak in January, but I’d suspect that the single will be active in the top 20 of the Hot 100 in early 2025, especially considering how it’s started to make noise on top 40 radio in the U.S. — a platform that’s been notoriously allergic to most K-pop artists. With Mars playing co-pilot, a monster global listenership and now a host album to boost streams, though, “APT.” will likely have legs as we kick off the new year.
Andrew Unterberger: It really feels like we’re just getting started with “APT.” It’s already huge, but not so pervasive that it feels like it’s run its course — there’s still a ton of potential new fans out there that probably haven’t even heard it yet — and radio is only just starting to give it its full support, which should only increase once the holiday rush (and Mars’ other huge late-2024 hit, “Die With a Smile”) starts to die down. I’d be pretty surprised if it didn’t hit a new Hot 100 peak in the first couple months of 2025.
3. Do you think there’s a second hit to be found in the Rosie tracklist? If so, what song or songs do you have your eye on for that?
Rania Aniftos: I’m loving “Toxic Till the End.” It’s such a relatable but fun pop song that, with the proper marketing and maybe some social media virality, could propel ROSÉ to Tate McRae- and Chappell Roan-level pop star ranks as a solo star.
Christopher Claxton: Absolutely! I think the next hit could be “Drinks or Coffee,” which is one of my personal favorites from the project. While it hasn’t cracked the Hot 100 yet, I believe it’s just a matter of time. As listeners spend more time with Rosie, they’ll come to appreciate how special that track is. “Drinks or Coffee” stands out because it captures the complexities of modern-day relationships. ROSÉ and her love interest are at a crossroads of intimacy and hesitation, making it deeply relatable for anyone navigating the push-and-pull of human connection.
Kyle Denis: I have my eye on “Toxic Till the End”; it’s got some cool Eternal Sunshine-esque synths and Guts-nodding guitars that keep it in line with top 40’s general sound while offering a specific combination of elements that feels, at least partially, unique to ROSÉ right now. “Gameboy” could also surprise as the album’s second hit.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m all in on “Toxic Till the End,” which follows up the party-ready chants of “APT.” with relationship angst, mid-tempo frustration and a big, moody chorus. It’s a great showcase for ROSÉ, and the type of confident balladry that could serve as a centerpiece for future live performances. “Toxic” placed high on Spotify’s New Music Friday playlist when Rosie was released, but couldn’t cut through the holiday deluge on the Hot 100; we’ll see if it has a chance to make noise in 2025, but my fingers are crossed.
Andrew Unterberger: “Toxic Till the End” feels like a great lost Avril Lavigne single — which, as any music fan between the ages of 20 and 40 knows, is just about the biggest compliment you can give a pop-rock single. I worry if it will be able to elbow its way onto the Hot 100 as “APT.” continues to grow in the new year, but I hope there’s some late life in it, because this is a song that deserves to become unavoidable.
4. The BLACKPINK ladies have all done fairly well in their solo careers, but do you think with “APT.” and Rosie that ROSÉ is on her way to stardom totally independently of the group’s massive success?
Rania Aniftos: No doubt in my mind. She’s got the full pop star package: the look, the talent, the creativity and the stage presence. If anything, the BLACKPINK girls’ individual successes will boost the group as a whole even more.
Christopher Claxton: Absolutely. If I’m not mistaken, Rosie is now the highest-ranking album on the Billboard 200 by a K-pop female solo artist, which is a huge milestone. Couple that with the global success of “APT.,” and it’s undeniable that ROSÉ is carving out her own space in the music industry. While BLACKPINK’s success has definitely opened the door for her, ROSÉ’s ability to deliver chart-topping hits that not only connect with listeners on a personal level but make their way to additional playlists proves she’s well on her way to becoming a star in her own right.
Kyle Denis: Yes. “APT.” reached the Hot 100’s top 10 in its first week of a release, a region no song from BLACKPINK or her bandmates has ever sniffed. I think Bruno Mars’ co-sign and the shift away from BLACKPINK’s EDM-heavy sound have helped a lot of people tune into ROSÉ. “APT” feels like it’s pierced the top 40 bubble because it’s simply a catchy song, not because of mass fan mobilization or a larger cultural shift. When you hear ROSÉ’s name, “APT” is probably more likely to come to mind than BLACKPINK – and that’s probably the most important step in establishing her as a solo star independent of her group’s success.
Jason Lipshutz: The success of BLACKPINK undoubtedly helped set up ROSÉ’s high-profile bid for solo stardom, but the best thing about Rosie is that it stands on its own: a listener could be a casual fan of the group, or not a fan at all, and still find a lot to love within ROSÉ’s mainstream-friendly yet intimately drawn pop aesthetic. Because of that, I do believe that she’ll be able to balance her work with BLACKPINK with a durable solo career, especially if ROSÉ continues unveiling more of who she is as an artist and person.
Andrew Unterberger: It feels like she’s there. Again, I’d love to see what kind of longevity the album can have into 2025 — and beyond “APT.” — but the rollout so far has been very impressive, and ROSÉ certainly seems to have the talent and the drive to make it stick.
5. If you were working on ROSÉ’s team, what would you be advising her to focus on in the new year to best take advantage of her current pop momentum?
Rania Aniftos: Live shows! She killed it at the MAMA Awards with Bruno, and it would be a great opportunity to bring the songs and her talents face-to-face with fans. With some festival appearances, she can definitely pick up some more fans along the way.
Christopher Claxton: I hate to say it, but a social media trend can truly work wonders for any musician’s career. If I were on ROSÉ’s team, I’d be thinking about what kind of trend we could create for a song from this album or even for her upcoming music in 2025. Whether it’s a dance challenge, a meme, or something entirely unique, a well-executed trend could drastically change the trajectory of a song’s performance. Based on how well her current singles and album are performing, it’s safe to assume her future releases will do great — but imagine how much further her music could go if a trend pushed it beyond her existing fanbase and into entirely new audiences.
Kyle Denis: Stay as visible as possible, just look at Sabrina Carpenter’s 2024.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d advise her to play the Rosie songs live, as often as possible. No clue what she and the rest of the BLACKPINK ladies have cooked up for 2025, but Rosie is strong enough to warrant a proper tour, and ROSÉ is captivating enough to command sizable audiences. Imagine swaying along in a crowd to “Number One Girl” and “Toxic Till the End,” surrounded by cell phone flashlights! Let’s hope it happens next year.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s all about the live performances for me. I’m looking forward to seeing ROSÉ lighting up the award show circuit in early 2025, hopefully with a variety of different approaches to different songs that really demonstrates the full extent of what she’s capable of as a pop star and convinces anyone watching that she belongs as a fixture on those stages. I’m optimistic.
It’s officially that time of year again — on the charts, anyway. The proper holidays may still be a couple weeks ago, but the Billboard Hot 100 is in full seasonal swing, with timely perennials absolutely taking over the chart’s top tier.
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As it has at some point in all of the last six years — although it had to split time a bit last year — Mariah Carey‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” rules the Hot 100 dated Dec. 14, followed by last year’s three-week champ, Brenda Lee‘s “All I Want for Christmas Is You.” And Wham!’s “Last Christmas,” celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, already hits a new all-time peak this week by jumping to No. 3.
What other seasonal staples might hit new peaks on the Hot 100 this year? And how long until “All I Want” starts to seriously threaten the all-time chart record? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Though Brenda Lee’s “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” captured the Hot 100 No. 1 for the first three weeks of the holiday season in 2023, this year Mariah Carey’s “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is the first seasonal classic to claim the chart’s apex. Are you surprised at the changeover, or did you expect “All I Want” to reclaim its throne on the early side this year?
Katie Atkinson: I had no doubt that Carey would reclaim her Christmas crown; it was just a matter of at what point in the 2024 holiday season. That said, it also feels very likely that Brenda Lee could rock her way back to the top of the Hot 100 Christmas tree this year. What was exciting about “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” hitting No. 1 for the first time last year was the idea that maybe a revolving door of holiday classics (or maybe even new seasonal songs) could jockey for that position each year, keeping the Christmas chart race interesting and festive — just like in Love, Actually (or in the real U.K.).
Kyle Denis: I’m not surprised at all. The Mariah Claus promotional machine has been in full swing since Oct. 2 – the date of her first Christmas-themed Instagram post of the year. Between her ongoing holiday tour and a new 30th-anniversary edition of Merry Christmas, both Carey and “All I Want” have been far more visible than Brenda Lee and “Rockin’” at this point in the season.
Jason Lipshutz: “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” reaching the top of the Hot 100 for the first time last year represented a lovely chart tribute to Brenda Lee, a beloved performer in her late seventies who got to watch her song hit No. 1 decades after its release. That said, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” remains the dominant holiday pop smash of this era, and will exist as the safest bet for the No. 1 slot in December unless there’s a special circumstance (such as Lee releasing a music video for “Christmas Tree” last year). Maybe Lee notches more weeks atop the Hot 100 during this and future holiday seasons, but Carey’s hit will remain bigger for the foreseeable future.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, Brenda Lee had a deserved nice moment for the song’s 65th anniversary last year, but Mariah remains the Queen of Christmas — and in the 30th-anniversary year of her Merry Christmas Album and its signature hit, there was never any real chance of anyone besting her.
Christine Werthman: Am I surprised that the queen of Christmas has reclaimed her throne? No, and I suspect that she will sit there all season. I was much more shocked that Brenda Lee topped the chart in 2023 simply because Mariah has been so dominant.
2. Wham!’s “Last Christmas” ranking is perhaps the real headline news of this week’s Hot 100, as the ‘80s holiday staple reaches a brand-new peak of No. 3 this week. Why, after four decades, do you think the song continues to grow on the charts?
Katie Atkinson: It’s just such a perfect pop hit, in addition to being a great Christmas song. And it’s celebrating its 40th anniversary this year, so just like Brenda Lee pulled out all the stops last year for the song’s 65th anniversary – new music video, round-the-clock media appearances, etc. – we’re seeing Wham!’s Andrew Ridgeley hit the interview circuit to hype up the beloved song. It hit No. 1 in the U.K. for the first time in 2021 and has spent a total of seven weeks in the top spot. I would love if this were the year for it to climb to No. 1 in the U.S.
Kyle Denis: Outside of it being a near-perfect pop song that’s gotten tons of new lives over the past few decades thanks to some stunning covers, I think “Last Christmas” is benefitting from a new generation of queer audiences connecting with George Michael’s lyrics. Long considered a queer Christmas classic, these new listeners can hear and see themselves in “Last Christmas” — and it’s likely they were introduced to the song through covers from pop stars like Ariana Grande and Taylor Swift. I definitely expect “Last Christmas” to continue surging in the coming weeks, especially as some of 2024’s biggest stars – like Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and ROSÉ — deliver their own spins on it this holiday season.
Jason Lipshutz: “Last Christmas” has been a holiday staple for years now — but the top three of the current Hot 100 makes clear that Wham!’s classic is now considered precisely the third-biggest holiday staple, behind “All I Want for Christmas Is You” and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree.” The song has slowly grown in stature over the years, and while reaching a new peak on the Hot 100 is an achievement worth commemorating, I do think that No. 3 high will remain for quite some time, since Lee’s smash still outpaces Wham! in streams and airplay, and Carey’s holiday hit towers above both. Maybe “Last Christmas” eventually climbs to No. 2 this year or in the near future, but it also might have hit its ceiling this week.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s all about anniversary years, isn’t it? “Last Christmas” grows in estimation every year because it’s one of the best holiday-themed songs ever written, but it’s specifically spiking this year likely due in no small part due to sentimentality over the song celebrating its 40th birthday this year — and will do so only more so once the physical single versions of its anniversary reissue ship this Friday.
Christine Werthman: Because…it’s a vibe? In all seriousness, the song is usually a less invasive option than many Christmas songs. While “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is a showstopper and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” kicks it back to the oldies, “Last Christmas” seamlessly slides into playlists that aren’t even entirely holiday themed. It’s an easy one to play on repeat.
3. Though both are now considered modern classics, neither Ariana Grande’s “Santa Tell Me” (No. 19) or Kelly Clarkson’s “Underneath the Tree” have yet hit the Hot 100’s top 10, both peaking thusfar at No. 11. Do you think this be the lucky year for Ariana, Kelly, both or neither?
Katie Atkinson: I’m going to wager that, on the strength of the good will around her performance in Wicked, this could be Ariana’s year. Anecdotally, it feels like I’ve heard “Santa Tell Me” more than ever this year – especially in Target, for what it’s worth – and this is obviously not scientific, but it just feels like the song has some serious tailwinds at the moment.
Kyle Denis: I’m going to give Ariana the edge; she’ll be incredibly visible this holiday season thanks to Wicked and the awards cycle for both film and music. She also has three physical 10th-anniversary editions of the “Santa Tell Me” single available on her website, and those will ship on Dec. 20.
Jason Lipshutz: I predict “Santa Tell Me” to hit the top 10 for the first time this year, once some long-running non-holiday hits like “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” and “Die With a Smile” (as well as Kendrick Lamar’s GNX material) naturally starts slipping. Along with the holiday season, we are currently in the Autumn of Ariana, thanks to Wicked dominating the box office and earning Grande raves (and a Golden Globe nod as of yesterday), in addition to hosting Saturday Night Live and seeing Eternal Sunshine pop up on year-end lists. “Santa Tell Me” will no doubt reach the top 10 of the Hot 100 someday — why not this season, during Grande’s red-hot streak? Other holiday songs may try to crowd it out and keep it down in the top 20, but I think “Santa Tell Me” will be… wait for it… apologies in advance… defying gravity.
Andrew Unterberger: Why not both? They’re the eighth- and ninth-highest-ranked holiday hits on the Hot 100 currently — so if they stay at their current trajectories, they’ll both have a pretty good shot at making the top 10 when Christmas music becomes all anyone is listening to in the next couple weeks to come. Unless Kendrick Lamar has a second 2024 album in the offing for late December; can’t totally rule out the possibility of course.
Christine Werthman: Unless there’s a cup of cheer and a sweet new sync in their future, neither of these songs are breaking into the top 10 this season. I know there’s a lot of Ari fever because of Wicked, but I don’t think it will drive more people to stream “Santa Tell Me.” Bah humbug!
4. Lower on the ranking, Laufey makes her Hot 100 debut with the new “Christmas Magic” from Red One. Does it feel like a future staple to you, or will most of its impact come this season?
Katie Atkinson: I could see it being a staple. It’s got that timeless, jazzy feel of a lot of holiday music, and Laufey taps into the same vibe that Zooey Deschanel mined with her She & Him Christmas project, which has become a mistletoe mainstay. Laufey and Christmas music go together like candy canes and cocoa.
Kyle Denis: No — then again, I don’t think anything attached to Red One will be a future staple. I also think Laufey can come a bit harder, though “Christmas Magic” is just fine. Regardless, it’s really great to see her on the Hot 100 for the very first time!
Jason Lipshutz: “Christmas Magic” may not sound like a typical holiday hit, but Laufey has a ton of goodwill at the moment, with a passionate fan base and a growing number of casual listeners latching onto her singular style. Seeing her score her first Hot 100 hit with an Amazon Music holiday track was not on my bingo card! But it’s a well-deserved debut, and will lead to bigger things in 2025.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think this is necessarily the song that’s gonna do it, but I have every confidence in Laufey eventually finding her way to a holiday perennial — she’s got just the right voice and temperament for it, not to mention the sizeable following. (You can already see her versions of “Winter Wonderland” and “Santa Baby” creeping up the Spotify charts as well.)
Christine Werthman: This is a pleasant, jazzy little bop, but I can’t even listen to the full thing because I don’t have Amazon Music. I would guess there are many others like me out there, so I think this will have a limited impact beyond this year. Also, Red One has a 31 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, and though I have not seen the movie, I am guessing it will not become the type of holiday classic that will help endear certain songs to listeners (like Home Alone for Brenda or Love Actually for Mariah).
5. This marks Mariah Carey’s 15th week atop the Hot 100 with “All I Want,” leaving the song just four weeks shy of tying the all-time record held by Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” and recently matched by Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” Do you think it’ll claim the record in the next couple years?
Katie Atkinson: Yes. In fact, I feel confident in guessing that it will surpass the record next year. What will be most interesting is how many weeks it can sustain in the years to come after that. This unique way of piecing together weeks at No. 1 could create a truly untouchable all-time Hot 100 record. Long live the Queen of Christmas.
Kyle Denis: Barring any unforeseen rule changes, I think it’s safe to say “All I Want” will claim the title by the end of the 2025 holiday season. At least Lil Nas X can say his 19 weeks at No. 1 were consecutive!
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely. Unless “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” makes a forceful push to become the top holiday hit, or something semi-recent like “Santa Tell Me” or “Underneath the Tree” explodes for some unforeseen reason, “All I Want for Christmas Is You” is going to keep logging weeks at No. 1, year after year, and eventually own the all-time record. My question is, how far can it go once that record is claimed? If Carey keeps spending a month at No. 1 every year for the next half-decade, could we see “All I Want” reach 30 total weeks at No. 1? How about 40? Because of this annual tradition, the sky is the limit for what Carey could achieve as a perennial chart behemoth.
Andrew Unterberger: Yep, hard to see anything short of a holiday-themed “We Are the World”-type gathering of superduperstars getting in its way.
Christine Werthman: Oh yes, she’ll get there. Slow and steady wins the race!
If you thought that we were finished with major releases for the 2024 calendar as we approached Thanksgiving and the beginning of year-end season, Kendrick Lamar let you know real quick that the year ain’t done yet.
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Two Friday afternoons ago (Nov. 22), Lamar snuck up on an unsuspecting public with the sneak-release of his previously announced new album GNX. The 12-track set builds on the momentum he established earlier this year with his Drake feud — which produced a pair of Billboard Hot 100 No. 1s in the Future and Metro Boomin collab “Like That” and his own “Not Like Us” — and produces a third Hot 100 No. 1 with “Squabble Up,” tops among the seven new songs the rapper launches into the top 10 this week, while also topping the Billboard 200 with 319,000 units moved.
Which is the most impressive of his current chart achievements? And how do we rate Kendrick Lamar’s 2024 at this point? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Kendrick Lamar’s GNX debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 319,000 first-week units — the biggest debut week for a rap album in 2024, despite no physical release and just 12 tracks’ worth of streaming totals — while also capturing seven of the top 10 spots on the Hot 100, including the entire top five. Which of the two achievements is more impressive to you?
Kyle Denis: I think the Hot 100 feat is a bit more impressive. The first-week units total for GNX is commendable, but the figure is squarely in Kendrick’s usual ballpark. Occupying the Hot 100’s entire top five – in the face of the fast-rising holiday songs and some of the most stable smashes of the year – is the kind of feat that moves Kendrick into a different column. Tons of acts have had albums debut with over 300,000 units, but only three other acts – The Beatles, Taylor Swift and Drake – have simultaneously held the top five spots on the Hot 100. That’s the kind of stat that helps get you to GOAT status.
Angel Diaz: I think both are equally as impressive. Selling that many units off pure streams and debuting No. 1 with no lead up or warning other than the GNX trailer he posted minutes before the album hit, is crazy when you look back on that fateful Friday afternoon here on the East Coast. But it’s also very cool to see “underground” West Coast rappers like Lefty Gunplay and Dody6 getting their first Hot 100 looks thanks to Kendrick. That’s unheard of in today’s landscape.
Jason Lipshutz: The latter, not just because it’s a chart achievement that only Taylor Swift, Drake and The Beatles have done before, but because flooding the top 5 of the Hot 100 demonstrates how much bigger GNX is than Kendrick Lamar’s other recent output. After all, 2022’s Mr. Morale & The Big Steppers debuted with two songs in the top 5 of the Hot 100 and three total in the top 10 — impressive for any artist, but literally half as impressive as what Lamar just accomplished with GNX. A new Kendrick Lamar album was always going to be in contention for the biggest rap debut of the year, but we’ve never this level of consumption of his songs on the Hot 100, and that chart feat showcases the album’s true enormity.
Michael Saponara: MUSTARDDDD. I’d have to go with occupying the entire top five of this week’s Hot 100 as, ironically enough, Drake was the only rapper to ever do that before him. Kendrick’s had a commercial resurgence that just wasn’t as potent earlier in the decade and there’s something to be said that the Compton rapper has notched more No. 1 hits in 2024 than the rest of his decorated career combined. He’s also the first rhymer to have three No. 1 debuts on the Hot 100 in the same calendar year.
Andrew Unterberger: Hot 100 for sure. He’s had Billboard 200-dominating albums before but he’s never blanketed the Hot 100 like this — to the point where he might even end up in the mix to have multiple No. 1s from the album before all is said and done. It’s crazy to see him so central to popular music right now, but obviously well-deserved.
2. GNX fell out of the sky on Friday at noon ET, with no advance warning. Do you think that promotional strategy ultimately helped, hurt or had no major effect on the album’s first-week performance?
Kyle Denis: I honestly think it may have hurt the album’s first-week performance. With his run of diss tracks this spring and summer and a general elevation of his celebrity, Kendrick had millions of consumers ready to eat up whatever project he put out. I think giving people some notice, even if it was just 24 hours, would have resulted in slightly better numbers than a full-on surprise drop. A bit of notice would have allowed fans to mobilize and create their own listening experiences and made for a seamless DSP uploading process — GNX reportedly took over an hour to appear on streaming platforms for some users. These are small things, but they’re the kinds of moves that could have at least helped the album get closer to the 350,000 range. Not to mention, a pre-announced release date would have also given Team Kendrick time to get physical copies of the album available upon release – but that would also depend on when K.Dot finished the album.
Angel Diaz: First of all, I’m sick of these surprise releases, man. I am begging for artists to chill out because they are making us lose our minds on a Friday and into the weekend. With that being said, as a fan, I love it and everyone I knew that’s not in this business were playing that album. You heard it at the barbershop over the weekend and out of car speakers, so yeah I definitely think that strategy had a major effect, especially for the casual fan seeing the chatter on social media and hitting play out of pure curiosity. The album being so good and having so much replay value also helped.
Jason Lipshutz: The surprise release has become a tactic generally reserved for superstars… and since Kendrick Lamar is one of our biggest, the out-of-nowhere drop absolutely helped him here. The shock of GNX — no leaks, no heads-up, just a brand new Kendrick album to stream on your Friday lunch break — defined the pop culture discourse of that day, and immediate reactions began to bubble up on social media to keep streams high through the weekend. Not every A-lister could pull off that type of unveiling, but Lamar did here, and scored one of the biggest debuts of his career in the process.
Michael Saponara: I don’t think there was much of a major impact with the surprise release. To be honest, I kind of expected something along those lines from the elusive K. Dot rather than a traditional rollout. He only lost 12 hours so that resulted in a minimal lagtime in spreading the word that rap’s boogeyman had returned. Between the Drake feud and the anticipation from fans for a new project, there really was no wrong way for Lamar to deliver his next album.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t think it really matters for its commercial performance — he could have released this album any which way and it still would’ve probably done about this well. But for maintaining the overall excitement level of his 2024, this was probably the best way to go.
3. “Squabble Up” debuts atop the Hot 100 this week as the top-performing song from the new album, but it has already been passed on the daily streaming charts of both iTunes and Spotify by both “TV Off” and “Luther.” Which of the three songs do you think will ultimately be the biggest hit from the set?
Kyle Denis: Of the three songs, I think “TV Off” will have the biggest peak, but I also anticipate “Luther” following a similar trajectory to that of “Love,” Dot’s 2017 duet with Zacari. “Luther” might not ever reach the top of the Hot 100, but I expect it to have impressive longevity and stay on the charts longer than any other GNX track.
Angel Diaz: I love “Luther”, but I really hope the West Coast street anthems like “Squabble Up” and “TV Off” stand the test of time and continue to perform in the future. So, to answer the question, I’ll put money on “Squabble Up.”
Jason Lipshutz: “TV Off” and “Squabble Up” are the album’s two turn-the-volume-way-up anthems, and while “Squabble Up” likely benefited from being placed second on the track list and gaining listeners’ immediate attentions, “TV Off” is the more enduring battle cry, thanks to the stronger K. Dot flow, positively nasty beat switch and the instantly meme-able “MUSTAAAAAAARD” moment. Who knows? Maybe once the holiday music onslaught subsides, Kendrick can kick off 2025 with another Hot 100 chart-topper.
Michael Saponara: I’m gonna go with “TV Off” as the winner here. It’s topped the Apple Music charts and spurred a ton of chatter on social media with endless meme-ability thanks to Kendrick’s pair of “MUSTARDDD” shout-outs to the track’s producer. Lefty Gunplay’s ominous chorus has also been going viral. We’ll see what kind of staying power the trio has at the top of the Hot 100, especially with rumors of a deluxe falling out of the sky from K. Dot.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah prepare for a lot of out-of-nowhere “MUSTAAAAAAAAARD” howls in casual conversation this holiday season.
4. Between his three No. 1 singles and now a No. 1 album as well, this is undoubtedly Kendrick Lamar’s biggest year on the Billboard charts. Do you think he ever would have had a year like this if not for the Drake feud that initially ignited it, or do you think he was due for such a legacy year at some point in his career regardless?
Kyle Denis: I think he was definitely due for a year like this – and the DAMN./Black Panther period would have sufficed if this year had never happened – but I’m not sure he gets it in 2024 specifically without the Drake feud.
Angel Diaz: I think he was due for a legacy year, but this is the way you do it in rap. This is the same thing Jay-Z did when he dissed Nas on “Takeover” the summer before he released his seminal album The Blueprint in 2001. However, Nas was nowhere near the level Drake was commercially, and Jay dissing him ironically resurrected his career while also placing Jigga on the throne. Rap really hasn’t had a power struggle for the crown since then. Did it benefit him? Sure. But he took the throne fair and square.
Jason Lipshutz: This type of year was always lurking within Kendrick Lamar, a singular superstar with a nearly unanimous approval rating, but 2022’s Mr. Morale suggested that he was turning away from commercial prospects in favor of idiosyncrasies and self-examination. Maybe a course-correction was coming, but the Drake feud — and before that, the talk of a “Big Three,” placing Kendrick on the same field as his peers when he believed he was playing a different sport — helped focus his superpowers, and provoke a year-long assault against his naysayers, October’s Very Own included. GNX is not about Drake, per se, but the album punctuates the assertion that Kendrick has spent 2024 making: there is no competition.
Michael Saponara: To this level, I can’t say I saw that coming. He hasn’t been that same kind of commercial titan since DAMN. and that’s over seven years ago at this point. There’s an argument Lamar was due for a “legacy year,” but I think the Drake feud added kerosene to the fire and gave him the lane to become rap’s undoubted MVP for 2024. It’s the biggest rap battle in decades between two of the greatest to do it, so of course it’s going to have a profound impact on the winner. But again, I’ll say I was wrong in that if there was a hit record to come out of the battle, I thought that was going to be Drake.
Andrew Unterberger: He might’ve been due for more of a commercial on cycle — since Kendrick has long sort of been on a one-for-them, one-for-me career path — but you have to imagine that he needed the Drake thing to take him to this. We’ve just never seen Kendrick Lamar get his blood up like this for an entire year before. It must have been something that was stewing in him for some time.
5. Is this the best year a rapper has had this decade?
Kyle Denis: I’m going to say yes. Shoutout to Megan Thee Stallion’s 2020 and Doja Cat’s 2021, though!
Angel Diaz: I think that’s fair to say, but going back a little further, we must remember Future’s 2015 run when he dropped Beast Mode, 56 Nights, DS2 and What a Time to Be Alive. Big Fewtch also had himself an impressive 2024 — with three Billboard 200 No. 1 albums — that was a bit overshadowed by Drake and Dot’s main event.
Jason Lipshutz: Yes, because Kendrick Lamar’s 2024 combines great music with a great narrative — enormous singles, blockbuster collaborations and a no-skips album coalescing around a battle that’s heated, personal and entertaining as hell. His year has transcended stats and honorifics, and become a cultural phenomenon. It’s one that hip-hop fans are never going to forget.
Michael Saponara: Yeah, I can’t see there being much debate about that. Not only the decade, but let’s open that up to the century. Then you’re talking Drake’s ‘18, Ye’s 2010-11, Wayne’s ‘07-’08 and 50 Cent’s 2003 off the top of my head, and Kendrick belongs in that discussion. Three No. 1 hits, one of which flipped the script against rap’s pop deity to defeat him in battle, and an acclaimed album that popped up as a late contender for album of the year honors. Oh, and it’s possible he’s sweeping at the Grammy Awards a month into 2025 before heading out on a stadium tour. This was one for the history books, Dot.
Andrew Unterberger: Hell yeah.
It’s official: Shaboozey‘s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” spends a 19th week at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100 this week, tying the all-time record set by Lil Nas X’s Billy Ray Cyrus-featuring “Old Town Road” in 2019.
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The song holds at No. 1 the week the same week that his new single, “Good News,” debuts on the Hot 100 at No. 71. It also follows an eventful night at the CMA Awards for the singer-songwriter, where he performed and was a multi-time nominee, and made headlines at the awards for being the subject of several on-stage jokes that played off his name in a way that some found distasteful.
Will Shaboozey’s new hit be a success in its own right? And will “A Bar Song” eventually rack up a 20th week at No. 1?
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1. Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” has tied the 19-week record at No. 1 on the Hot 100. On a scale from 1-10, how momentous an occasion do you think this is in chart and/or popular music history?
Kyle Denis: 10. This is probably the single grandest Billboard chart achievement; it’s an incredibly momentous occasion. Especially considering Shaboozey did it as a new artist with no high-profile remixes. It does feel a bit muted because 2019 was just five years ago, but few things can truly take away from how insane it is that the two longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 songs of all time are hip-hop-infused country songs by Black men.
Jason Lipshutz: A 10. I am on record writing that I didn’t think “A Bar Song” would get to 19 weeks, because 19 weeks at No. 1 is literally historic, and only one other song and soared that high in the generations-spanning history of the Hot 100. Now that it’s here, “A Bar Song” deserves its flowers, and to sit alongside “Old Town Road” in the pantheon of new-school mega-hits, the type of months-long smashes that we’ll be happily humming many years from now. Shaboozey should savor this moment, but so should all pop-watchers.
Melinda Newman: I’d give it a 9. Shaboozey had put out two albums prior to the album with “A Bar Song,” and several non-charting singles and now he’s verging on becoming a household name. He already has the record for most weeks at No. 1 for a non-collaboration in the 66-year history of the Hot 100. From here on out, every artist will be chasing his (co-) record.
Jessica Nicholson: 7. Like “Old Town Road” before it, Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song” was an inescapable hit this year, and both were led by Black artists, each crafting their own blend of elements of country, pop and rap into massive hits that resonated with nearly everyone, proving that the amalgam of those genres is a winning formula.
Andrew Unterberger: I’d say an 9. It doesn’t feel quite as momentous as when “Old Town Road” set the record five years ago — mostly because that was only five years ago, and because in the last decade the Hot 100 has clearly started to tilt towards longer-running No. 1s than in prior decades. But a 19-week No. 1 is a 19-week No. 1, and “A Bar Song” was one of the year’s most fascinating singles even before it began its incredible chart run, so it’s definitely still a very, very big deal.
2. Let’s say at Thanksgiving this week, a friend or relative of yours without much frame of reference for pop or country music asks what the deal with this song is. In one sentence, how would you explain this song’s popularity to them?
Kyle Denis: Country and western sounds and aesthetics have been defining aspects of pop culture this year, and “A Bar Song” captured all that energy into a literal, ridiculously catchy, bar song.
Jason Lipshutz: “It’s an anthemic, undeniable sing-along that became historically gigantic by appealing to all sorts of fans — country fans, pop fans, hip-hop fans, fans of J-Kwon’s impeccable 2004 jam ‘Tipsy’ — and clicking at every consumption platform that exists, from top 40 radio to TikTok.” That’s a long sentence, but still one sentence.
Melinda Newman: Even though the song is ostensibly about drinking away your troubles, it’s so insanely catchy, that you can’t help but tap your toes and sing along even if you’re nowhere near a bar or have no history with Jack Daniel’s.
Jessica Nicholson: This song blends a weekend barroom party groove, with lyrics steeped in laidback, workweek escapism, all rolled into one.
Andrew Unterberger: Whether you’re a pop fan, a rock fan, a country fan or a hip-hop fan — or best of all, if you’re all four — everyone loves a good barroom singalong.
3. Shaboozey’s “Good News” also debuts on the Hot 100 this week. We won’t ask if it’ll match the very-close-to-unprecedented success of its predecessor, but what kind of chances would you give it of quickly disqualifying Shaboozey from any one-hit wonder considerations?
Kyle Denis: I’d say it’s still early. It honestly feels unfair to even begin speculating about how a new Shaboozey single will perform as long as it must exist in the domineering shadow of “A Bar Song.” “Good News” doubles-down on Shaboozey’s country framework and shifts away from the uptempo hip-hop nods of “Tipsy,” which might limit just how far it can crossover. Prior to “A Bar Song,” Shaboozey tracks weren’t debuting on the Hot 100 after the first week, so the performance of “Good News” is already promising. And even if this particular song isn’t his second hit, that doesn’t mean he won’t snag one with a different tune.
Jason Lipshutz: I like “Good News” — it’s essentially “A Bar Song (Mournful),” with an impressive vocal take from Shaboozey and some nifty violin work snaking throughout the production — but I’m not sure it will replicate even a tenth of its predecessor’s success. “Good News” is arriving at a crowded moment at the top of the charts, with enduring hits, a new Kendrick Lamar album and the holiday music onslaught about to start. While I’m not sure Shaboozey’s latest will be able to hold on through January and make a chart push, I feel pretty confident that he’ll have something else in 2025 that can follow up “A Bar Song” and silence the one-hit-wonder chatter.
Melinda Newman: Here’s the “good news”: With “A Bar Song,” Shaboozey has already established himself with an instantly recognizable voice. I heard “Good News” and knew it was him without waiting for the song to be ID’d. Having said that, it’s going to take more than one hit and several years for Shaboozey to escape one-hit wonder status. And no matter how many hits he gets, this will be his signature song, but that’s not such a bad thing. I doubt Garth Brooks complains that fans wait all show to hear “Friends in Low Places.”
Jessica Nicholson: The song is already making strong inroads on the Hot Country Songs chart with a top 20 debut, so it seems very likely that this track will void any potential “one-hit wonder” notions. Like “A Bar Song,” “Good News” incorporates a singalong chorus and rustic-leaning acoustic guitar rhythms, which also lends a bit of familiarity for fans of “A Bar Song.”
Andrew Unterberger: Between its rousing chorus and capo’d acoustic guitar melody — and more than a hint of Zach Bryan on the verses — it certainly feels like it could (and should) find a big fanbase on streaming, radio or both. That doesn’t mean it necessarily will — plenty of prior non-“A Bar Song” Shaboozey songs were worthy singles that ended up not really catching fire — but I like its chances.
4. While this is a triumphant, headline-grabbing moment for Shaboozey, he has also been in the news the past week for last week’s CMA Awards, where he went home empty-handed and had his name used as a punchline in a variety of on-stage jokes. Do you think the CMA stuff taints the moment for Shaboozey, or will it soon become a footnote to his and his song’s historic accomplishments?
Kyle Denis: It’s a footnote that only reflects poorly on the CMAs. Hopefully, this moment can help crystallize Beyoncé’s true aim of Cowboy Carter – or at least what I think she was trying to get at. Through its expansive envisioning of Western and Americana aesthetics and collaborations with genre-bending artists like Shaboozey, Cowboy Carter found Beyoncé trying to remind us that being “country” and country music are far bigger than the CMAs or Nashville or any other institution. Shaboozey played the game and earned one of the two biggest songs in Billboard history — that still wasn’t enough to receive basic respect at his genre’s biggest awards show. Why continue to grovel for a seat at their table when you could build several dining halls elsewhere in the vast expanse that is country music?
Jason Lipshutz: Definitely a bizarre moment that possibly left a poor taste in Shaboozey’s mouth, but I’d bet every other artist at the CMA Awards would have wanted a 19-week No. 1 smash instead of a trophy that evening. I’d guess that Shaboozey has a good shot at the best new artist Grammy, and “A Bar Song” is one of the favorites for song of the year — possible redemption, although even being blanked at the Grammys won’t diminish the song’s achievement.
Melinda Newman: Definitely a footnote. He’s already been very classy about the jokes on social media and the simple fact is 80% of the nominees lose, so there’s no shame in going home empty-handed. He gave a fine performance of “Highway/A Bar Song,” and performances are, by and large, what move the sales/streaming needle post-awards show, not whose name is called when the envelope is opened.
Jessica Nicholson: In the short-term, it does feel like it temporarily taints the moment a bit, given all of the big milestones he’s had this year, from being featured on Beyonce’s Cowboy Carter album, his huge CMA Fest performance that shut down Nashville’s Lower Broadway this summer, his Billboard cover, sold-out shows and his Grammy Awards nominations. But in the long run, it will likely be a footnote, given the historic chart run of “A Bar Song,” and Shaboozey’s musical talent, which will likely be giving us more hits in years to come.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s part of his story now, but obviously not as big a part as having one of the two longest-running No. 1 hits in Hot 100 history. You just hope that everyone learns from this moment and Shaboozey is treated more like an insider than an outsider at the next such awards show.
5. The Hot 100 was already about to get crowded with the Christmas rush, and now Shaboozey has a new Kendrick Lamar album to deal with as well. Do you think “A Bar Song” manages to score a record-breaking 20th week at No. 1?
Kyle Denis It’s possible! Kendrick will probably snag a week or two on top before the holiday songs begin to dominate, so if I were on Team Boozey, I’d keep an eye on January. Release a remix – Maybe J-Kwon gets a call? Tease a Beyoncé version at either of their respective NFL halftime sets? — as the holiday songs begin to fade, but before Kendrick gets a double-whammy of a boost come February with the Grammys (Feb. 2) and the Super Bowl (Feb. 9) in back-to-back weeks.
Jason Lipshutz: Look, I have been the one saying “No way it gets to 10 weeks,” “No way it gets to 15 weeks,” “No way it gets to 19 weeks.” You know what? I’m calling it: “A Bar Song” gets to 20 weeks, somehow, some way! I am now drinking the whiskey, going to the party downtown near 5th street.
Melinda Newman: Sadly, no. Even though “A Bar Song’s” sales are going up, its streams are slowing, and it seems unlikely to hold off the juggernaut that is Kendrick Lamar, and, most notable, “Squabble Up” from Lamar’s new album. Plus, Christmas songs will start re-entering and soaring back up the chart. But that doesn’t take away from his remarkable accomplishment.
Jessica Nicholson: Even though “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” has had a stellar run, between the chart surge of holiday songs and the buzz around this new Kendrick Lamar album, it seems likely that “A Bar Song” will get overshadowed on the Hot 100.
Andrew Unterberger: Not in 2024, I don’t think. But we’ve likely got a sleepy January ahead, and I bet it can get at least one more week at that point.