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The results are in: Post Malone’s “I Had Some Help,” featuring a big assist from Morgan Wallen, is the official Billboard song of the summer.
The country crossover smash, which ruled the Songs of the Summer chart for all 14 weeks of its 2024 run, held off a hard-charging second-place finisher in Shaboozey’s nine-week Billboard Hot 100 No. 1 “A Bar Song (Tipsy)” — the second straight year that country titles finished in the chart’s top two spots, following Wallen’s “Last Night” and Luke Combs’ “Fast Car” cover claiming Nos. 1 and 2 in 2023, respectively. Meanwhile, Kendrick Lamar takes the No. 3 spot with “Not Like Us,” while Sabrina Carpenter lands twice within the top 10, with “Espresso” (No. 4) and “Please Please Please” No. 6.
How closely does this year’s chart align with our own anecdotal impressions of what the songs of the summer were? And which summer-defining songs and artists are notably missing from the final tally, if any? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Post Malone and Morgan Wallen’s “I Had Some Help” ranks as Billboard’s Song of the Summer. On a scale from 1-10, how would you rate it both as a summer song, and as a defining song of THIS particular summer?
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Katie Atkinson: I’m going to give it a 10 as a summer song. To prove its warm-weather bona fides, look no further than the music video, which ends with Post and Morgan singing from a truck bed during a parking-lot party as a massive American flag waves above them and fireworks take off in the night sky. It was basically tailor-made for a Fourth of July tailgate. Now for this summer in particular, I’m going to go with a 9. The top two songs from the past two summer charts have all been country, so a Nashville party-starter at No. 1 is proof-positive of the genre’s incredible popularity right now. I’m only shaving off one point because Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso” was my particular song of this summer and it just has that extra dose of sunshine – or extra shot of you-know-what.
Eric Renner Brown: “I Had Some Help” sounds like a hot, humid summer afternoon – it’s a 9 as a summer song. As a reflection of 2024, the song feels both in and out of sync with the broader music landscape. On the one hand, country had a massive summer, driven in part by crossover successes and new breakouts; as the lead single from Post’s big foray into country music, “I Had Some Help” is of a piece with that. On the other hand, Wallen’s presence takes me back to last summer – when the country star was even more dominant – and both him and Post feel out of sync with other major pop storylines from this summer like Sabrina, Chappell and Charli. I’d give it a 7 as the defining song of this summer specifically.
Kyle Denis: I’d say it’s a solid 8 as both a summer song and a defining song of this particular summer. In my opinion, the entire top five of Billboard’s Song of the Summer ranking was pretty spot-on. All of those songs are representative of what I heard and danced to while outside all summer. I don’t think any one song reigns over the others except maybe “Not Like Us.” This summer felt more driven by moments (Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter phenomena, country music’s comeback on the singles chart, Brat Summer, Glorilla and Bossman Dlow’s respective 2024 runs etc.) than individual records.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7 and a 6. “I Had Some Help” certainly has a summertime tempo and sing-along chorus, inviting raised cups across backyard gatherings and beach hangs alike. And it was big this season, if not ubiquitous; that speaks more to the dissolution of the monoculture that makes it harder for a single song to act inescapable across every platform, but also to how its run at No. 1 on the Hot 100 was not the longest of this summer, coming in second to “A Bar Song (Tipsy).” Artists like Shaboozey, Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and Kendrick Lamar were just as present this summer as Morgan and Post, but the chart points worked out so that “I Had Some Help” finished above them all.
Andrew Unterberger: A 9 song of the summer, and a 7 defining song on this summer. Both numbers raised at least a point by a friend’s recent barbecue where the song was played no fewer than four times (and went off each time).
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2. The SotS ranking is neatly bookended by country – both by its top two songs (“I Had Some Help” and Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy)”) and its bottom two (Luke Combs’ “Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” and Dasha’s “Austin”) – while other songs by Zach Bryan, Morgan Wallen and Kane Brown fall between them. Why do you think this was such a country-heavy summer? Did it feel that way to you anecdotally?
Katie Atkinson: It’s not just a country-heavy summer; it’s been a country-heavy past two years! But there is something about those four summer 2024 songs you mentioned that makes them perfect for a BBQ or pool party playlist – and they’ve all been in rotation for me all summer. I would also argue that three of the four (excluding Luke Combs’ twangy Twisters track) transcend genre, because I’ve heard them played in places I’ve never heard country before. So I think the crossover appeal did a lot of the heavy lifting.
Eric Renner Brown: For one, it’s an election year! Nothing gets those patriotic juices flowing – and the country music blaring – like candidates posturing over who loves the stars and stripes more. On top of that, next-gen genre stars like Wallen and Brown have finally solidified their spot atop country music while major non-country artists like Beyoncé and Post have given the genre most cultural cachet among yeehaw-skeptical audiences (Stereogum’s Chris DeVille even astutely noted that Sabrina’s album was, in a sense, “an awesome Kacey Musgraves album.”) Still, the basic fact remains that country is simply massive in many parts of the country; all summers are “country-heavy” summers, to an extent.
Kyle Denis: I think we’re reached the final stage of country music’s mainstream comeback to the top of Hot 100 with the way pop-facing artists and listeners are not just accepting, but also intentionally seeking out country elements in their music. This summer we’ve had both straight country songs (Combs, Malone/Wallen) and country-infused pop tunes (Sabrina Carpenter’s “Please Please Please,” for example) reach the Hot 100’s highest heights.
Anecdotally, country has less of a presence than the respective single runs of Kendrick Lamar, GloRilla and Bossman Dlow, but the genre was certainly a sound that was expected to pop up at some point during a night out or an evening drive. I wouldn’t have been able to say that even three years ago.
Jason Lipshutz: We are seeing the full integration of country music into streaming platforms in real time: while genres like hip-hop and pop more naturally commanded Spotify and Apple Music during the 2010s as country listeners focused on radio blocks, that consumer habit has gradually shifted, and the country’s big summer hits are much bigger than they were a decade ago. The various personalities within the genre have certainly helped grease the wheels of this commercial explosion — Wallen, Bryan and Combs in particular are no-doubt superstars at this point, and all have prolific streaks — but the way that they are commanding daily streaming playlists is the key to understanding the past couple Songs of the Summer charts.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if country is really towering over the mainstream the way our charts sometimes seem to imply, but I think it’s true that country always has a major radio presence — and more now than ever, given how many songs are crossing over to pop radio — and now it has finally fully caught up on streaming as well. With that kind of foothold in those two mediums, when a song really pops off, there’s really no limit to how big it can get, or how long it can stay that big for.
3. The only artist with two songs in the top 10 this year is Sabrina Carpenter: “Espresso” (No. 4) & “Please Please Please” (No. 6). Carpenter was unquestionably one of the defining pop presences of the season, but she vote-split a little with her multiple huge hits — do you think we’re getting to a point where we should be having an Artist of the Summer discussion as much as a Song of the Summer one? Would it have easily been Carpenter if we did?
Katie Atkinson: Please please please make it happen, Billboard charts team! It would be fascinating to see if we used our Artist 100 methodology just for the summer months whether it would have been Sabrina or maybe Morgan who would wear the summer 2024 crown, but I do think there’s value in seeing which musician rules the summer, not just what music.
Eric Renner Brown: The Song of the Summer conversation has expanded so much that sometimes I think it’s strayed too far from its genesis: The single omnipresent song that was inescapable at barbecues, beaches, and bars during the year’s warmest months. I wouldn’t say we shouldn’t have an Artist of the Summer discussion, but it feels like a different thing that doesn’t necessarily correlate to the Song of the Summer.
In fact, I don’t think having the Song of the Summer would necessarily be a prerequisite for being Artist of the Summer. No Charli XCX song achieved the cultural saturation that Sabrina’s big hits did this summer – and yet, Charli was the one getting promoted by one of the two major party candidates for president, and the one who had celebrities and influencers doing the “Apple” dance on TikTok. All that to say, no, I don’t think it would have easily been Sabrina – it would’ve been Charli, or even Chappell Roan, who felt far more present as an individual than Sabrina did.
Kyle Denis: I think I touched on it with one of my earlier answers, but artist of the year seems like a more accurate unit of measurement for this particular summer. I’m not sure Carpenter has it sewn up tho, Chappell Roan and Charli XCX certainly have some skin in the game – as do Lamar, Billie Eilish, GloRilla and Bossman Dlow.
Jason Lipshutz: Probably — although you could make a case that Kendrick Lamar would stand alongside her thanks to his avalanche of diss tracks, and Chappell Roan is right there too with “Good Luck, Babe!” all the various slow-burn smashes that she has accrued. Even Post Malone, who finished atop the chart with “I Had Some Help,” had another song, “Fortnight” with Taylor Swift, that finished in the top 20. This summer was full of artists who notched multiple smashes, instead of being satisfied with just one — although, with her two songs as dominant as they have been, Carpenter would probably earn my vote in the Artist of the Summer election.
Andrew Unterberger: It does seem to me that this summer was defined more by artists than by songs — and that while the Post Malone and Shaboozey songs were both enormous, I’m not sure the respective artists behind them really had an outsized seasonal presence otherwise — so yeah, I do think it would be interesting to have a separate discussion about that distinction. If there was an AotS debate to be had, Carpenter would certainly be in the mix, along with Charli XCX, Kendrick Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter and probably Taylor Swift.
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4. What song (or artist) is absent from this year’s top 20 that you think was really necessary for understanding the summer in popular music?
Katie Atkinson: 100% Charli XCX. How can we end Brat Summer without a single Brat song on our summer chart? All these songs had an absolute chokehold on TikTok, but I think the one that should be on our chart to properly represent summer 2024 is “360,” which debuted on the Hot 100 in June and peaked at No. 41 in August – aka, a summer moment.
Eric Renner Brown: It’s Charli, baby! When you’ve got Jake Tapper unpacking the cultural significance of your album on CNN, you’re central to popular music.
Kyle Denis: Forgive me for invoking their names yet again, but GloRilla (“Yeah Glo,” “All Dere,” “Wanna Be,” “Bop,” “Finesse,” “TGIF”) and Bossman Dlow (“Get In With Me,” “Talk My Shit,” “Mr. Pot Scraper,” “Finesse,” “Shake Dat Ass,” “2 Slippery,” “Big One”).
Jason Lipshutz: “Apple” by Charli XCX. Although Brat Summer is not represented on the Songs of the Summer chart, Charli’s latest album was a lightning rod of interest and chatter, and “Apple” best crystallizes its viral reach, an immaculate pop gem that launched countless TikTok-ready movements. Runner-up goes to the “Girl, So Confusing” redo with Lorde, which is possibly the most fully realized pop remix of the 2020s.
Andrew Unterberger: Beyond Charli XCX — the obvious answer, since the season was basically renamed in her latest album’s likeness — it’s probably also worth mentioning the people’s champ Tinashe, whose early viral success with “Nasty” was seemingly willed to life by the collective consciousness of Pop Twitter. When it was clear the song was gonna hit the Hot 100, that was the first time I remember thinking that this was gonna end up being a pretty special summer for pop music. And it did!
5. We don’t have a Songs of the Autumn chart at Billboard (yet) – but if you could make a personal pick for a new and/or rising song to emerge as an early frontrunner for the late-calendar months, which would it be?
Katie Atkinson: After the unexpected folky resurgence that started the year (Benson Boone, Hozier, etc.), it feels like an artist like Mark Ambor could keep climbing up the chart as temperatures drop. His breakout hit “Belong Together” has so far peaked at No. 74 on the Hot 100, but with a recent push at radio and the release of his debut album Rockwood last month, his music could be soundtracking more than a few pumpkin spice latte runs this fall.
Eric Renner Brown: There’s no way Kendrick doesn’t put out another new song between now and his Super Bowl halftime show gig in a few months, right? For a Song of the Autumn, I’d put my money on what he or another Song of the Summer chart presence who I have a feeling might drop a fresh loosie –Chappell Roan – puts out. (This is also a referendum on the fact that some of the season’s A-list releases, including Halsey, Katy Perry, and Shawn Mendes, don’t exactly seem poised to launch a song into the upper range of the Hot 100.)
Kyle Denis: It would make my heart smile if any of the following songs got some love this fall: “Nissan Altima” (Doechii), “Sweep It Up” (Coco Jones), “Blick Sum” (Latto), “Lonely Is the Muse” (Halsey) and “Last of My Kind” (Shaboozey & Paul Cauthen).
Jason Lipshutz: None of us have heard The Weeknd’s “Dancing in the Flames,” his new single arriving this Friday — but lest we forget, Mr. Tesfaye comes alive in the fall time. I’m expecting to hear that sensual croon while sipping my pumpkin spice latte.
Andrew Unterberger: Can Pop Twitter do it again? If so, look to Addison Rae’s “Diet Pepsi,” a growing popheads favorite, to be one of the biggest songs of 2024 before year’s end.
It’s been a massive year for new releases from huge artists — and with the first-week returns for her Short n’ Sweet album, Sabrina Carpenter has now proven herself as big as nearly any of ’em.
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The new LP — officially Carpenter’s sixth, but just her second since leaving the Disney-owned Hollywood Records for Island — launches atop the Billboard 200 (dated Sept. 17) this week with 362,000 first-week units, making it the year’s third-biggest bow (after Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department and Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter). Meanwhile, the album launches all 10 of its brand new tracks onto the top half of the Hot 100 — where pre-release singles “Espresso” and “Please Please Please” have long lived — led by the No. 2 entrance of new single “Taste.”
How did Sabrina Carpenter work her way up to these A-list numbers? And what do we think of Short n’ Sweet beyond the big hits? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. Sabrina Carpenter scores her best week (and then some) with 362,000 first-week units for Short n’ Sweet – the third-best first-week mark of the year for any artist — while also charting all 12 tracks within the Hot 100’s top 50. On a scale from 1-10, how big a triumph are those first-week stats for Carpenter?
Hannah Dailey: That’s an absolute 10, especially considering that before this era, she hadn’t even broken into the top 20 of either chart. She’s worked for so long for this moment and played all her cards exactly right this year to build hype leading up to the Short n’ Sweet era. It’s an incredible feat, and she and her team should be very proud.
Stephen Daw: 10, easily. Had this just been her first No. 1 album, this moment would have already been a pretty big deal for Sabrina — to have Short n’ Sweet rake in such massive numbers and debut all of its songs within the chart’s top 50 makes it a monumental success for her.
Kristin Robinson: 10! I don’t think any artist could ask for a better roll out than this one. Every new single/focus track has been as big if not bigger than the one before it. The music videos captured the cultural zeitgeist, and she has become an artist that pretty much everyone has been rooting for. Any artist, whether they’ve been famous for 10 years or one year, would be lucky to have so much success. I think her good fortune will continue as well. If you check TikTok, it seems that fans are not just connecting to the top songs — they are obsessing over the deeper cuts too. That is always a great sign that the full album has legs.
Andrew Unterberger: It is indeed a 10. If you told me a year ago (hell, if you told me six months ago) that Sabrina had posted a 36,200-unit week in her new album’s first frame — literally one-tenth of what she ended up doing with Short n’ Sweet — I would’ve said that was a great showing for her. To outpace some of the artists who have been the very pace-setters for some of the music Carpenter is making in this album is just jaw-dropping, and an unqualified win for all involved.
Christine Werthman: I’m withholding the 10 for if she’d bested everyone this year, but I’ll still go big with a 9. The numbers alone are impressive, but the biggest triumph to me is that this is her sixth studio album, and she’s finally breaking through in a massive way. It is far from the norm nowadays for most artists to toil away and eventually reach this level of success, especially in pop. Props to her and similarly long-building labelmate Chappell Roan for sticking with it.
2. In a year full of major releases from major pop stars – Billie Eilish, Ariana Grande, Post Malone, Ye, many others – Carpenter’s 2024 first-week number passes everyone outside of pop’s arguable two contemporary leading lights, Taylor Swift and Beyoncé. What is the biggest reason you think SnS was able to outperform so many huge releases, at just 12 tracks with no features?
Hannah Dailey: She worked meticulously to make sure that people would have every reason to tune in once Short n’ Sweet dropped, from capitalizing on her clicky romance with Barry Keoghan to keeping her branding focused and consistent with what’s been working for her this past year. She also chose three excellent singles to lead the album — “Espresso,” “Please Please Please” and “Taste” — and paired them with music videos that allowed her personality and charisma to shine through. All of this made for a really fresh, polished rollout that followed a more traditional pop star format that people seemed to really resonate with.
Stephen Daw: It ultimately boils down to the joint success stories of “Espresso” and “Please Please Please,” I think. Timing is tricky in the modern music business, especially with how capricious viral success can be on the charts. But the stars really aligned for Sabrina — after years building up her reputation as pop music’s next main character, she managed to score her first two top five hits on the Hot 100 within a month of one another. Once she had that momentum going, there was almost no way to stop her from storming the charts like this.
Kristin Robinson: I think first and foremost, the songs are well-crafted, upbeat and infectious. This should come as no surprise, given the number of hitmakers that helped her put it together. Then secondly, you can tell Sabrina put in the work to get here. These kinds of successes are never an accident: It requires extreme effort and dedication on the artist’s part to constantly try to stay in front of their audiences. I don’t think we got nearly as many interviews, music videos, live shows, festival sets, promotional bits, etc. from Billie, Ariana, Post and Ye.
Andrew Unterberger: Sabrina has just nailed all of the small things over the course of the past six months — everything from the music videos to the release schedule to the live performances to specific lyrical details — in a way that built momentum organically but purposefully leading up to Short n’ Sweet. And perhaps most importantly, in the weeks leading up to the album, she pulled back a little: It never felt like the album had come out before the album actually came out, which is a trap a lot of her peers can’t help themselves from falling into. (Well, her one-time peers anyway, her current peer list is rapidly dwindling.)
Christine Werthman: Perhaps the answer is in the title: Short n’ Sweet. Although, to play my own contrarian, just because an album is short doesn’t mean it’ll be an easy listen. The key is that Carpenter gives the people what they want — quippy one-liners, bedroom eyes, vocal trills — and while she might vary the packaging (“Coincidence,” “Bed Chem,” “Slim Pickins”) those elements are always present. After six albums, Carpenter has homed in on her strengths, and these songs play to them over 36 delightful minutes.
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3. “Taste” leads the way among the set’s newly debuting tracks on this week’s Hot 100, debuting at No. 2 and sandwiching itself in between the peaks of her two established smashes, “Espresso” (No. 3) and “Please Please Please” (No. 1). Will it ultimately be as big as those two long-lasting hits, or do you think it will fade quicker after its bow?
Hannah Dailey: I definitely think “Taste” will be a lasting hit alongside “Espresso” and “Please Please Please.” It’s catchy and fun, the music video is killer, and it already has a bunch of traction on TikTok. Like it or not, the Sabrina chart domination is definitely going to continue in the near future.
Stephen Daw: I think “Taste” is going to linger. The twangy, country-adjacent sound is perfectly in line with what audiences have been playing on repeat lately, it’s got a viral music video that fans are still obsessing over and it carries that same earworm songwriting that made both “Espresso” and “Please” burrow into the pop culture lexicon. I don’t think it’s going to be bigger than either of her previously established hits, but I can see “Taste” enjoying a long shelf life in the upper echelons of the Hot 100.
Kristin Robinson: Well, I’ve been wrong before. I thought there was no way “Please Please Please” would get as big as “Espresso” and I was wrong. I wouldn’t be shocked if this did the best of the three because the momentum is so strong right now.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s already a smash, and is gonna be around for a while. It’s the perfect third single to follow a pair of pre-release smashes: feeling simultaneously of a piece and totally separate from the first two, and already familiar-sounding from the first listen. And it’s very good, which usually helps.
Christine Werthman: “Taste” was already one of my favorite songs on the album, even before I watched the wonderfully unhinged video co-starring Jenna Ortega. The strength of the song on its own, coupled with the visual, will keep it around, as will the approaching Halloween season. Best spooky videos list, anyone?
4. While Carpenter has certainly established herself as a brilliant singles artist, does the rest of Short n’ Sweet live up to its hits to you? Is there anything you’d like to hear her do more or less of in the future?
Hannah Dailey: The other songs on Short n’ Sweet feel very compatible with the album’s singles: flirty, fun and sassy. I do think she needs to move on from the hypersexualized-short-girl schtick after this album, though, or else I worry she’ll put herself in a box that people might grow wary of down the line.
Stephen Daw: Part of what makes Short n’ Sweet work as well as it does is the feeling throughout that Sabrina is having the best time making big pop songs fun again. Nothing feels too self-serious, even in the album’s down-tempo ballads. The only problem that comes with her focus on clever, cheeky songwriting is that the sound of some of her songs can fall to the wayside, making some of this album’s songs feel generic by comparison to her megahits. If Sabrina can keep her songwriting this sharp while putting an even bigger focus on honing what “her sound” is, then her career will be far from short and that much sweeter.
Kristin Robinson: I think there are strong songs on this album that are not singles — my favorite being “Sharpest Tool” – but it does trail off a little bit in quality towards the end. In the future, I would like to see her embracing her own style more. A number of these songs sound like ones that would’ve been pitched to Ariana Grande five years ago. “Slim Pickins” feels too Kacey Musgraves. While the songs are all well-written, this album can feel a bit derivative.
Andrew Unterberger: The first half of this album in particular is simply all killer — both in terms of every song hitting, and the ordering of them being perfectly paced. If it maybe tails off a tiny bit post-“Espresso…” well, gotta leave some room for improvement for her second album as a certified superstar.
Christine Werthman: Carpenter made a great pop album with high replay value. This isn’t one of those where you have to hold your breath and wait for the known hits because there are plenty more to discover — “Taste, “Good Graces,” “Juno” — even if they don’t all become chart-toppers. Though some of the slower songs might have you reaching for the skip button, she’ll jolt you awake with lyrics like, “jack off to lyrics by Leonard Cohen” on “Dumb & Poetic.” The woman is a wordsmith! If anything, I’d love to hear more 1990s rhythmic stuff from her like “Good Graces,” another new standout.
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5. Carpenter’s superstar resume is filling up more rapidly than even her biggest boosters could’ve predicted at the beginning of the year. What’s one thing she’s yet to check off there that you think would help further cement 2024 as Her Year?
Hannah Dailey: She’s already won over a larger audience, as well as proved her prowess commercially and on the charts. All that’s left for her to do, in my opinion, is show that she’s earned the respect of her peers and critics in the music industry by securing a Grammy nomination this November. Once she has Recording Academy recognition, her status as a Main Pop Girl will absolutely be cemented.
Stephen Daw: If Sabrina can get one major city to temporarily rename itself in her honor during her upcoming tour, I feel like the Main Pop Girl checklist will be pretty much complete.
Kristin Robinson: The obvious answer is some Grammy wins in February. I also think having one more hit after “Taste” though would put this album over the top as one akin to Future Nostalgia by Dua Lipa or SOS by SZA – both albums that just had hit after hit.
Andrew Unterberger: Before we start worrying about Carpenter filling her awards mantle, how about getting a super-dope award show performance from her first? She’ll have her chance next week at the MTV Video Music Awards, a stage that the true pop greats of the last 40 years have always embraced the opportunity to make their mark on. I hope she brings it, and I have little doubt that she will.
Christine Werthman: How about a big-name collab? But instead of going for a pop OG, Carpenter should link with fellow 2024 queen Chappell Roan. Since Carpenter and Roan are already friends, labelmates and cheeky pop connoisseurs, I think a collab between those two would create a huge moment to close out the year.
Post Malone donned a cowboy hat and dominated the charts: on this week’s Billboard 200 (dated Aug. 31), new album F-1 Trillion blasts in at No. 1 with 250,000 equivalent album units earned in the U.S. in the week ending Aug. 22, according to Luminate. F-1 Trillion marks Post Malone’s third career No. 1 album, but notably, the full-length is a full-on country project that sounds far removed from his last two chart-toppers.
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A slew of country greats helped Post Malone with the project — several of which score debuts alongside Posty on this week’s Hot 100, where 18 songs from F-1 Trillion bow, including every collaboration. “I Had Some Help” with Morgan Wallen remains at the head of the pack, though, logging another week at No. 2 on the Hot 100, after previously spending six nonconsecutive weeks at No. 1.
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What’s the secret behind Post Malone’s country switch-up? And what genre should he explore next? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. F-1 Trillion debuts with 250,000 equivalent album units — more than twice as many as the debut total for last year’s Austin album (113,000), although a far cry from 2019’s Hollywood’s Bleeding (489,000). On a scale of 1-10, how are you feeling about this debut if you’re Post?
Jessica Nicholson: An 8. With this being his first official foray into the country genre (he’s posted covers of country songs online over the past several years), this is a great accomplishment, especially given that the solo tracks on his Long Bed extension of the album lean into elements of Texas swing, honky tonk and 2000s country, rather than only the rock and hip-hop-inflected country of his Morgan Wallen collab. Still, one would think the numbers would be a bit higher, given the slate of big-name collaborations proliferating the album.
Jason Lipshutz: A 9. Simply put, Post Malone got his groove back with F-1 Trillion, following a pair of albums that produced some solid hits but didn’t do enough to iterate on his earlier success. This country album was boosted by a big hit in “I Had Some Help,” but a debut of 250,000 equivalent album units indicates that Posty’s country change-up conjured interest beyond its lead single — fans wanted to explore this new side of his artistry, and he scored one of the biggest debuts of 2024. Maybe he never returns to the commercial peak of his Hollywood’s Bleeding numbers, but the performance of F-1 Trillion suggests that Post Malone’s time in the spotlight will persist well past that peak.
Katie Atkinson: 10. He went outside his typical lane, assembled The Avengers of country music, and came in to release week with a six-week Hot 100 No. 1 lead single. Honestly, what’s not to be happy about? This country pivot has been received with open arms by the music-buying public, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Post’s country era extends beyond one album.
Lyndsey Havens: You could say I’d be feeling… 1 trillion out of 10. Metrics aside, this is an artistic project that Texas native Post Malone has wanted to make for most of his career. And yes, while he collaborated with superstars and legends alike on Hollywood’s Bleeding, helping the pop-rock-rap album score such an impressive first-week debut, you could argue the features on F-1 mean a bit more. To have almost every heavy hitter across country music – including the queen herself, Dolly Parton – was surely the best stamp of approval Post could desire. Even more so than his first foray into the genre debuting at No. 1, Post made an album that the country community not only rallied behind wanted to be a part of. And that is well worth celebrating.
Melinda Newman: An 8. A No. 1 album is a No. 1 album, no matter what the sales/streaming numbers are. And after missing the mark with both Austin and 2022’s Twelve Carat Toothache, Post has to be happy to reach the summit again, even if, to paraphrase a popular song, he had some help. At the same time, there has to be a nagging twinge of doubt questioning if he can hit No. 1 as a solo artist, though the popularity of F-1 Trillion will undoubtedly propel his solo numbers. Plus, all the tracks charted on the Hot 100, thanks to streaming. He’s got to be thrilled by that.
2. With F-1 Trillion becoming Post Malone’s first No. 1 album since 2019 and “I Had Some Help” with Morgan Wallen leading the Hot 100 for six total weeks, are you surprised that his country pivot has been as successful as its chart rankings indicate?
Jessica Nicholson: No. He has made a strong showing of connecting with both the Nashville industry and with country music fans. His album includes collaborations with a range of country artists, highlighting his respect for the genre by including both modern-day hitmakers like Lainey Wilson, Luke Combs and Morgan Wallen, but also legends including Dolly Parton and Hank Williams, Jr. He wrote with Nashville writers for the album, and has showed up at nearly every Nashville country music venue possible, from the Grand Ole Opry to the Bluebird Café. But he’s also connected with fans through appearances at Stagecoach and his recent Marathon Music Works show — and for the country music audience, that intentionality in connecting with fans still goes a long way.
Jason Lipshutz: Not if you actually listened to “I Had Some Help,” and heard how naturally Post’s voice adapted to a country-pop sound alongside a Nashville superstar like Wallen. The ease with which he entered that lane suggested that he could maintain that stance for a full country album, especially one where he’d be flanked by established genre stars. And sure enough, F-1 Trillion is rife with guest stars that Posty can play off of, as well as a handful of solo tracks that were saved for the deluxe edition of the album. It was a foolproof formula for this project, and I’m not surprised that listeners have embraced it.
Katie Atkinson: Absolutely not. I remember assigning a story back in 2021 about all the times Post had “gone country.” It’s quaint to look back at that list, because the genre lines are so very blurred now – especially with a borderless artist like Post Malone – that all his country moments were so obviously inherent to him then and now. I mean, he’s from Texas, for starters. But the smartest thing he did with his first country outing is to get more than a dozen of the genre’s biggest stars to collaborate with him and co-sign his Nashville bona fides. Like, are you going to say this man isn’t country – because he has face tattoos, because he’s made rap music, etc., etc. – when Hank Williams Jr. says he is?
Lyndsey Havens: Not at all. The one thing I have learned from my years as a Post Malone fan is that he can’t really surprise us – he’s shown his range from the start. Take his debut album Stoney, a project on which his breakout hip-hop hit “White Iverson” fits perfectly alongside a warbly acoustic ballad like “Feeling Whitney” (in which he sings of putting on “a little Dwight” Yoakam). Plus, the first and only video Post has uploaded to the YouTube account created under his birth name, Austin Post, is a cover of Bob Dylan’s “Don’t Think Twice.” But more than any one genre, the thing that most foreshadowed Post’s pivot to country is his songwriting. And now, after years of honing those chops and building a network of Nashville’s hottest names, it’s no wonder he’s having such success.
Melinda Newman: Not at all. Country is having a moment (which many of us hope becomes a movement), and Post Malone has now become part of that. His timing was perfect, but if you talk to anyone in Nashville who worked with him, he put in the work. He spent months in Nashville working with top songwriters and immersing himself in the scene, popping up at local clubs to play. Plus, as a Texas boy, he grew up on country (among other genres), and folks in Nashville talk about how he is a country music jukebox. He is steeped in the stuff.
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3. “I Had Some Help” is still going strong at No. 2 on the Hot 100 chart, although plenty of F-1 Trillion tracks debut on this week’s chart. Which song from the album do you think has the highest potential as a follow-up hit to “Help”?
Jessica Nicholson: His Blake Shelton collaboration “Pour Me a Drink” is currently not far behind on the Hot 100, at No. 13. The song is also in the top 15 on the Country Airplay chart and is directly behind “I Had Some Help” on the Hot Country Songs chart, sitting at No. 3. Elsewhere, he recently released a video with Luke Combs for their collab “A Guy For That,” and that track is at No. 7 on the Hot Country Songs chart. However, his album also includes the Jelly Roll collab “Losers,” which could be primed to dominate as well.
Jason Lipshutz: “California Sober” with Chris Stapleton debuted at No. 34 on this week’s Hot 100, and I could see that reaching a higher peak in due time — that song is an absolute blast to yell along to in a windows-down situation, as Post Malone and Stapleton let their harmonies rip into the plucked guitar strings. Stapleton hasn’t had a true pop crossover moment in a minute, and “California Sober” might be his ticket to the Hot 100’s upper reaches. Get these two together on an awards show stage, pronto!
Katie Atkinson: The gritty opening track “Wrong Ones” with Tim McGraw has my vote for the chorus alone: “I’m just lookin’ for the right one/ But them wrong ones keep lookin’ at me.” That needs to be on country radio, stat. While McGraw has been making country music for 30 years now, 15 of his top 20 Hot Country Songs hits are from the last decade and he’s due for another.
Lyndsey Havens: While previous pop-leaning country singles like “Pour Me a Drink” or “Guy For That” feel like obvious picks, I’m rooting for the dizzying “California Sober” with Chris Stapleton. But then, there’s the downtrodden anthem “Losers” with Jelly Roll, who is no stranger to the Hot 100 himself… With so many songs to choose from, it’s still a toss-up for me which one will raise its hand next.
Melinda Newman: Both “Pour Me A Drink” with Blake Shelton and “Guy For That” with Luke Combs are already getting some airplay at country radio, and if you’re going with what fits right in with what else is on country radio right now in terms of tempo, I’d pick “Devil I’ve Been,” featuring ERNEST, or “Nosedive,” since he hasn’t had a ballad as a single yet and Lainey Wilson is so hot. However, I’d love to see “California Sober” with Chris Stapleton have a shot at radio. We placed it at No. 1 on our ranking of the album’s tracks, because it’s a fun rave-up where they both sound like they’re having a blast. Does it sound like most of what’s playing on radio right now? No, it does not. It’s a little more freewheeling and doesn’t have a structured chorus, but it sure sounds great in the car with the windows down.
4. Post Malone collaborates with over a dozen country artists on F-1 Trillion — but which one that isn’t on the album would you still love to hear him team up with someday?
Jessica Nicholson: He’s proven he knows his way around Texas swing and honky tonk, anthems thanks to songs on his F-1 Trillion: Long Bed deluxe project, thanks to songs like “Back to Texas” and “Who Needs You.” Adding his fellow Texans Miranda Lambert or “King George” Strait to a track would be superb.
Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with Sam Hunt, a hook maestro who’s long been adept at nudging his country style into different sonic territories. Imagine Post Malone contributing verse to a soothing, snappy country anthem akin to “Body Like a Back Road” — pretty intriguing, right?
Katie Atkinson: I’m stunned that his fellow Texan Kacey Musgraves isn’t on this album, so I’m going to need that collab on the next one. Her syrupy-sweet vocals next to his gravelly vibrato would be the perfect yin and yang.
Lyndsey Havens: Right now, in this moment, I have to say Shaboozey. I think the two of them would emerge with an absolute smash that perfectly blends their voices and effortlessly fuses country and Americana with a hint of hip-hop.
Melinda Newman: Without a doubt, fellow Texan George Strait. I’m curious if they tried and it didn’t work out timing-wise or it just wasn’t George’s thing. It would also be a blast to hear him and Garth Brooks do a duet.
5. If you could offer Post Malone some advice on his next studio project — either continue exploring country music, return to rap, or try something new entirely — what would you tell him?
Jessica Nicholson: I think further exploring country music and cementing his place in the genre beyond one album would be a smart move, especially given the track record of artists such as Kenny Rogers, Conway Twitty, and Darius Rucker who have found longevity within the country genre after having previous indie-pop sounds. Additionally, the breadth of sounds under country’s present-day umbrella makes some modern country hits sound not that far removed from Post’s own indie-pop hits. Perhaps even a hybrid project of country songs and his more rock stylings wouldn’t be out of the question, a la HARDY’s The Mockingbird & The Crow.
Jason Lipshutz: I might go with the “try something new entirely,” simply because Post Malone has already mined hip-hop and country music to great success, and has demonstrated a chameleonic ability to blend into the scene around him. What other sounds could be conquer? Could Posty link up with his pal Andrew Watt for a full-blown rock opus, or crank out a pop classic alongside Max Martin? If Post Malone made a jazz album, or a metal album… they would be surprisingly good, right? He is one of the smarter shape-shifting popular artists of our time, and I would never want Posty to do anything other than chase his muse.
Katie Atkinson: Do whatever you want! This is a man of multitudes who is clearly a natural fit in a lot of different worlds, and I just want to be along for the ride wherever the chameleon shows up next.
Lyndsey Havens: I have long begged for Post to release a folk album as Austin Post. His Dylan cover has lived in my head rent-free for a decade, and whether he chooses to release a project of covers in the same lane or continue to explore a folk-pop sound like his labelmate Noah Kahan, with whom he has collaborated on a remix of “Dial Drunk,” I’d be happy with whatever direction he chooses. Fortunately, with an artist like Post, nothing ever seems off the table – especially if you can also play beer pong on it.
Melinda Newman: I’d be curious to see where he goes if he keeps exploring country. The nine songs he released the next day after F-1 Trillion’s release, under F-1 Trillion: Long Bed, are way more traditionally country than the duets on F-1 Trillion, both stylistically and in instrumentation. He’s got a fine voice for country (though it seems that no style is beyond his vocal capabilities). What happens if he keeps leaning in that direction?
While the pop music world has been buzzing the past three months about everything from Brat summer to Kendrick Lamar’s Juneteenth takeover to Post Malone’s country pivot, Taylor Swift just keeps racking up weeks atop the Billboard 200.
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The Tortured Poets Department, which first reigned on the Billboard 200 dated May 4, enjoys a 15th week at No. 1 on this week’s chart (dated Aug. 24). She continues to hold off the ascendant Chappell Roan, who climbs 3-2 on the listing this week with her breakout The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess album, and she is now just four weeks away from tying Morgan Wallen’s 19-week mark for the longest-ruling No. 1 album of the decade.
Will Swift match that Wallen mark? And why has the pop discussion seemingly sidestepped Swift while her album remains this dominant? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. While the pop discussion this summer has largely revolved around Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Charli XCX, Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department has now reached 15 weeks atop the Billboard 200, one of just two albums this decade to reach that mark. Why do you think Swift’s dominance has felt so (relatively) quiet this season?
Rania Aniftos: While nothing Swift does is ever really quiet, we’re in a new era of pop music where there isn’t just one artist dominating the charts at a time, which I think music fans have been craving for a long time. While Swift has been holding steady on the Billboard 200, the Hot 100 has given us a look into the next generation of pop. That’s why the rising popularity of stars like Sabrina, Charli and Chappell is getting so much attention this summer, while Swift maintains her reign as expected.
Katie Atkinson: Taylor’s loudest moment came when the album debuted in April, and then when she kicked off the European leg of her Eras Tour in May, so she was more so the pop story of the spring instead of summer. But her Eras Tour hasn’t slowed down in the months since, with the Euro leg wrapping Tuesday (Aug. 20) back in London. So even if she wasn’t getting all the headlines that Chappell, Sabrina and Charli were, she was still plugging away weekend after weekend, debuting new Tortured Poets songs onstage, releasing new physical versions of the album, and quietly staying the conversation, racking up 15 weeks at No. 1 along the way.
Rylee Johnston: I think it comes down to two things: Taylor Swift’s level of superstardom vs. Chappell Roan, Sabrina Carpenter and Charli XCX’s and the type of music that was released. When looking at Roan, Carpenter and Charli, this summer has been monumental for their careers and arguably a pivotal moment for them as artists. Swift has already solidified herself as one of the biggest artists out there — so much so that it’s almost expected that she have a big opening due to the span of her reach; a flop on the charts would attract higher attention. When looking specifically at the music released, The Tortured Poets Department doesn’t have that “summertime” feel quite like the music off Brat, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess and the two singles we’ve gotten from Carpenter’s upcoming Short n’ Sweet. If Swift had created a more summer-feeling album and marketed it in that way, there may have been a more prominent presence than what we see now.
Jason Lipshutz: While Chappell, Sabrina and Charli are exciting new stars whose respective rises have invigorated popular music with new (or renewed, in Charli’s case) perspectives and fresh aesthetics, Taylor Swift remains the commercial pinnacle, a superstar in a class of her own when it comes to consumer interest. As such, our collective focus as pop purveyors has naturally gravitated toward the new crop of A-listers, while Swift has remained dominant in the relative background. And there’s nothing wrong with that! Swift has been on top for so long that it makes sense for the cultural conversation to slightly shift to other subjects, even as she logs more weeks at No. 1 and continues breaking records (in some cases, her own).
Andrew Unterberger: The other artists released and/or developed major hits more recently than Swift has from Poets — which certainly helps them feel more current, in additional to the natural excitement surrounding them as artists on the come-up rather than artists maintaining their throne. Also worth noting that Swift has mostly kept on the sidelines so far as far as election season is concerned, while Chappell and Charli both got huge exposure bumps from being involved (directly or not) with vice president Kamala Harris’ early presidential campaigning.
2. Speaking of Roan, her Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess album climbs to No. 2 on the chart this week. Do you think it will pass Tortured in the next week or two, or will Poets be able to hold it off until the album begins to lose momentum?
Rania Aniftos: Knowing Taylor, she’ll stay on the top of that chart no matter what. Maybe she’ll drop another music video or release another special edition vinyl, giving the album the boost to stay at that No. 1 spot.
Katie Atkinson: Looking ahead at the album release calendar, Swift might be the least of Chappell’s worries. Post Malone put out his first country album last week and fellow summer “it” girl Sabrina Carpenter puts out Short n’ Sweet this week – not to mention Travis Scott’s 10th-anniversary mixtape reissue coming Friday too. Roan’s little-album-that-could making it all the way to No. 1 would have been a great cherry on top for her star-making summer, but taking it to No. 2 alone, almost a year after its initial release, is still a massive accomplishment.
Rylee Johnston: Honestly, Roan’s album could stand a chance unless a new set of TTPD variations comes out for Swifties to collect. It’s also worth noting that Swift’s album has already begun a descent in album units compared to Roan’s rise this week. And, if the latter decides to drop the new music she’s been teasing on the road, she could find herself with a top spot — as it seems her fanbase only continues to grow with every live performance she puts on.
Jason Lipshutz: The next few weeks on the Billboard 200 should be pretty topsy-turvy, with the debuts of new albums from Post Malone and Sabrina Carpenter, among others. I’m not sure if and when Rise and Fall will shift above Tortured on the chart, either at No. 1 or elsewhere lower in the top 5 — Chappell has the new-school momentum, while Taylor has the longstanding commercial power — although I am rooting for Chappell to log at least one week atop the Billboard 200, to cap the remarkable ascent of a singular artist. Now that it’s reached the runner-up spot, I’m hoping Rise and Fall can hit No. 1 sometime in the next month or so.
Andrew Unterberger: I think Chappell will get there eventually, but it may have to take it by force — with a deluxe version or reissue or some other method of actively boosting consumption. If Roan’s team just expects she’ll grow into the No. 1 naturally based on her pre-existing momentum…. Taylor Swift doesn’t really lose by default very often, y’know? It’ll have to be a specific push, maybe centered around the album’s one-year anniversary in late September.
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3. While Tortured Poets doesn’t have the singles-based propulsion of some of the other albums defining the pop summer, it does have a single that’s grown in recent weeks in “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart,” which continues to rise through the chart’s 30s this week. Do you see it continuing to swell into a big enough hit to extend Tortured Poets’ chart shelf life, or do you see it fading along with the album in the weeks to come?
Rania Aniftos: I see it fading only because I have a feeling she’ll be announcing Reputation (Taylor’s Version) very soon, giving other songs time to shine.
Katie Atkinson: This was the song that originally stuck out to me when the album was released, mostly because (despite its heartbreaking lyrical content) it was the happiest, poppiest track among a more, well, tortured project. I’m not surprised to see it rise as the favorite on radio and streaming in the months since, and maybe it could have a similar Eras Tour-fueled journey back to the upper reaches of the Hot 100 (following its debut-week No. 3 high) like “Cruel Summer” did last year. Looking at the Adult Pop Airplay chart, where it sits in the top 10 this week at its No. 8 peak, there’s still room to grow.
Rylee Johnston: It helps that the Eras tour is still going on, but with how long the album has been out now, timing is really going to need to be on her side. One way she could most likely get a jump on the chart would be a surprise appearance during “Broken Heart,” similar to what she did with Travis Kelce joining her to do the number on stage. If another big single comes out, then it’s very possible that it’ll overshadow “Broken Heart” and prevent it from reaching the top. We can’t forget that Carpenter’s album is dropping this week, and that will also certainly have an impact on the charts.
Jason Lipshutz: The chart prospects of “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” have been tricky to nail down. I expected the song to go full “Karma” on the Hot 100, quickly growing into a top 10 Hot 100 hit and radio mainstay once lead single “Fortnight” had subsided a bit — and while “Broken Heart” hasn’t gotten there yet and might not at all, the song has slowly been rising, a top 40 hit that’s now 16 spots above “Fortnight” on the tally. At this point, I think it will keep climbing into the top 20 and make a strong imprint on pop radio but fall a little short of the top 10 — something closer to a “Delicate” this time around.
Andrew Unterberger: The song climbing back into the top 40 is already more than I was expecting, to be honest. I like the song but it seemed like the moment had passed for it, and I wasn’t really convinced that massive radio airplay was ever in the cards for it. But if “Broken Heart” gets a new remix, with the right guest? I still don’t see it challenging for a second Tortured Poets No. 1 hit, but it could probably get top 20 at least.
4. With its incredible endurance atop the Billboard 200 and its historic first-week performance, do you think we will look back at The Tortured Poets Department as Taylor Swift’s peak of popularity a couple decades from now?
Rania Aniftos: Yes, but there’s nuance here. I don’t think Poets on its own will stand as peak of popularity in Swift’s career, but Poets in the context of the Eras Tour will. Dropping a 15-week Billboard 200 chart topper in the midst of a massive, record-breaking tour with your Super Bowl-winning boyfriend cheering you on from the crowd is definitely a peak I’d like to stand on.
Katie Atkinson: I think that the concurrent Eras Tour will be remembered as the symbol of Swift’s stratospheric popularity right now more so than this album. To me, this album’s domination is because of all the attention and goodwill and community that has been built up by this once-in-a-lifetime tour. She has an unparalleled opportunity to immediately share these new songs with stadium crowds, and unlike a lot of veteran acts whose fans don’t want to hear the new stuff and just want the hits, she’s able to give them both and they eat up both voraciously. So Tortured Poets has become the 15-week No. 1 phenomenon that it is with the weight of the biggest tour possibly ever behind it.
Rylee Johnston: Maybe if the Eras tour wasn’t going on at the same time, but I think her tour will overshadow the album. Even when TTPD was released, the buzz wasn’t just about the music, but whether she would incorporate it into her tour and how the drop would impact her set list. I would even group the album more underneath the tour’s umbrella whereas her previous albums had air to breathe and a moment for itself. I don’t really see this period as her TTPD era, like I would with albums like Reputation or Red, and think her next album would potentially be more impactful, as it would be singular and not lumped in with a decade-spanning tour.
Jason Lipshutz: My guess is that we will view these past three years as that peak — from the first re-records to Midnights to the Eras tour to The Tortured Poets Department — an incredible cultural force that extended into all facets of popular music, from the touring industry to awards ceremonies to social media reach (don’t forget that “Cruel Summer” went viral, all the way to No. 1, in the middle of that span!) to studio output. And to that lattermost aspect, The Tortured Poets Department may serve as the crown jewel, as a sprawling, idiosyncratic, highly vulnerable project that scored the biggest first-week debut, and has now spent the most weeks at No. 1, of any Swift album. She has blown away the competition on her own terms.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s possible the history books will paint it as such — and it would certainly fit, with the numbers and everything — but having lived through both years I don’t think there’s really any question that Taylor Swift’s 2023 was much, much bigger than her 2024. Which isn’t to take away from Swift’s 2024, which has still been massively successful on every conceivable level. But her 2023 was a once-in-a-lifetime pop year, not to ever be repeated — by her, or possibly by anyone else either.
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5. Yes or no: Does Tortured Poets ultimately match One Thing at a Time’s 19-week run atop the 200?
Rania Aniftos: Yes. Team Taylor!
Katie Atkinson: I wouldn’t count Swift out, like, ever, but she has a much more challenging road ahead to snag four more weeks. I think there’s a strong chance she could get a few more – especially with some physical shipments still looming and the potential for an Anthology vinyl release – but I predict she’ll fall shy of 19.
Rylee Johnston: No, but mostly because the two albums are in different categories. What’s impressive about One Thing at a Time’s success is how the country album has been able to overshadow pop music. Whereas Swift’s global reach has enabled her to generate a level of stardom that results in immediate domination of the charts for a longer period. What’s worth calling out though, is that both artists have very loyal fans, and I think they all are willing to put in the work to help both artists remain at the top.
Jason Lipshutz: I’m going to say yes, because, even if other projects sneak into the top spot in the coming weeks and months, I have to imagine that The Tortured Poets Department will remain a massive physical product around the holidays. Who needs a shiny new toy from Santa when you can have “My Boy Only Breaks His Favorite Toys” on vinyl? My prediction is, before the end of 2024, TTPD will have notched 20+ weeks at No. 1.
Andrew Unterberger: Do you remember that One Thing at a Time racked up its 17th, 18th and 19th weeks this year — most recently in March? I don’t think we’re anywhere near Swift reaching the end of her run here; she could go 10 straight weeks without hitting the top spot and still be a considerable threat to hit it in Week 11. Bottom line: I’d be pretty surprised if she doesn’t get to 19 at some point.
In an era when most albums peak in interest during their debut week and slowly slide away from there, Charli XCX‘s Brat is already two months old and still seems to become more central to the pop conversation every week.
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As two of the album’s established hits continue to climb the Billboard Hot 100 this week, with “360” climbing 44-41 and “Apple” rising 66-52, the two songs are leapfrogged by the No. 12 debut of “Guess,” boosted by the Brat bonus cut’s new remix featuring pop superstar Billie Eilish. The flirty collab between the two pop hitmakers (with an eye-catching, undergarment-strewn video) instantly becomes Charli XCX’s highest-peaking single since 2014, while Eilish collects her sixth new top 20 hit this year.
What does the song’s success mean for the rest of the pop season increasingly referred to as Brat summer? And how important are the song’s sapphic overtones (particularly in Eilish’s new verse) to the continued normalization of LGBTQ content in top 40? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Charli XCX’s Billie Eilish-featuring remix of Brat deluxe reissue cut “Guess” debuts at No. 12 on the Hot 100 this week — making it easily the highest-peaking hit from the entire Brat era. Is its success just a matter of the combined star power of the names involved, or do you think there’s more to the song’s success?
Katie Bain: Certainly it’s a function of the star power, plus a general curiosity of what Billie would bring to the song, then also an acknowledgment of how well she delivers on the track. It seems likely as well that timing is a factor, given that the remix came out 10 days after Charli’s culture-sharking “Kamala IS brat’ tweet whipped up a frenzy and pushed the album further into the cultural conversation, particularly areas where it didn’t previously exist, drawing more attention to anything/everything about the project. The song’s female-centric themes also dovetail neatly with the woman-power vibe of the Kamala Harris campaign (albeit in a much more explicit way), so the remix coming in the wake of the tweet made for synergy, and likely made a difference in the track’s performance.
Stephen Daw: I’d argue it’s more the latter. There’s no denying that nabbing a mega-star like Billie Eilish for the “Guess” remix was a huge get for Charli, but the reason this remix works is because it feels like a missing piece of the song has been added. Instead of simply repeating the same verse, Billie gets her own take on the track with some truly out of pocket lyrics that add to the performative idea behind the single. Sure, having these two stars together on one track certainly contributed to the song’s success, but I doubt it would have charted this high were it not for Billie’s cheeky performance.
Jason Lipshutz: The star power helps — after all, Billie Eilish is one of the biggest active pop superstars on the planet, with another smash currently in the top 10 of the Hot 100 — but the “Guess” remix has largely benefited from the general buy-in to the Brat era and the narrative that Charli XCX has harnessed with the project. Brat has become the definition of cool in pop over the past few months, and because of that, its deluxe-edition songs, remixes and music videos have all enjoyed the snowball effect of Brat Summer, with each new release receiving greater and greater attention from a larger number of listeners. For her part, Charli has played this rollout perfectly — including saving her biggest remix collaborator for the moment in which Brat consumption reached a fever pitch.
Taylor Mims: Combined star power is definitely a factor in the song’s success. Both Charli and Billie are having huge summers with two great albums, but throwing two big stars on a track doesn’t necessarily make a hit. Billie has been a superstar for years now, but Hit Me Hard and Soft shows off her different, lighter side with tracks like “Lunch,” “Birds of a Feather” and “L’Amour De Ma Vie.” A track like “Guess,” which ends with the line “You wanna guess if I’m serious about this song,” is so unserious in the best way possible — and makes it a perfect companion for Billie’s current repertoire, which makes it easy for her fans to get on board.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s a combination of a star power 1-2 and just good planning in general: Everything about the rollout, timing and general conceptualization behind the “Guess” remix hit just right. Personally I think there’s plenty of other Bratverse songs that deserve to be as big (and likely bigger), but the major debut of “Guess” is sort of the culmination of the entire era to this point anyway.
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2. As Brat summer just keeps getting hotter, the album continues to climb back up the Billboard 200, now ranking at No. 6 — three spots off its No. 3 debut a couple months ago. Do you think it will eventually best that original peak, or do you think the season of Brat is soon to wind to a close?
Katie Bain: It depends on what tricks Charli has up her sleeve to keep momentum going. She’s promised that a remix version of the album is coming, which would likely only draw more attention to the original, so depending on what her next chess moves are, I think there’s reason to believe it could continue climbing and segue us all into Brat Autumn.
Stephen Daw: Every summer has to end, and that includes Brat summer. I could see the album gaining another position or two with another big, blockbuster remix (maybe with Troye Sivan ahead of their co-headlining Sweat Tour?), but I think we’re marching towards the end of the cultural chokehold Charli has held us in for the last few months.
Jason Lipshutz: Part of the answer will depend upon how much the Brat hits continue growing on the Hot 100; if Charli can score an enduring top 10 hit from the album, then the album has a good shot at rising back to, or above, its No. 3 peak. At this point, though, that battle has already been made moot by a successful war: Brat is now Charli xcx’s longest-running album on the Billboard 200 chart, and a full-blown cultural phenomenon that keeps getting bigger. Want to know what’s cooler than having a No. 1 album? Having one that helps define pop music for an entire season in 2024.
Taylor Mims: Just because school has resumed, does not mean we are done with Brat summer. The Democratic party candidate has been dubbed “Brat” and, if we are to make it through an election year in the U.S., we’re gonna need the Brat season to carry over into the fall. The allbum seems like it will easily regain its peak position and possibly even reach the summit following this “Guess” remix. Clocking in at under two and a half minutes, this song will get repeat listens at a rapid pace, and propel Brat further and further up the chart.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t bet against Brat‘s momentum at this point — it feels like she’s taking the Noah Kahan-minted approach to this album of continuing to crank out star-studded remixes and deluxe editions as long as fans have the appetite for ’em, and right now they still seem hungry as ever. Personally, I hope it peaks at No. 2 — marking an undeniable triumph, but still allowing Charli to hold onto a bit of her underdog edge.
3. Meanwhile, Eilish’s own “Birds of a Feather” keeps gaining momentum on the Hot 100 — reaching a new peak of No. 7 this week. Why do you think that song has grown into the biggest breakout hit from her Hit Me Hard and Soft album?
Katie Bain: Melody. Whereas a lot of the album is more challenging/experimental in terms of structure, themes and Billie’s vocal delivery, “Birds of a Feather” is a bright, straightforward, singalong pop song made for radio.
Stephen Daw: “Birds of a Feather” feels like something genuinely new from an artist who has made a career from out-of-the-box creative decisions. The thing that makes “Birds” stand out in Billie’s catalog is that, sonically, it isn’t as eclectic as her other hits — it’s a simple, dark love song. It doesn’t lose that ephemeral quality that makes Billie Eilish songs so fascinating to listen to, but it also manages to recontextualize Billie in a more conventional sound that feels different from anything else she’s put out, let alone anything else on Hit Me Hard and Soft. Bonus points for the fact that her voice sounds nearly perfect on this track.
Jason Lipshutz: “Birds of a Feather” has maintained its high streaming totals while also establishing its foothold on pop radio, helping the song stay a hit in its first few weeks of release and then grow into an even bigger one recently. It also helps that “Birds” has the fans squarely in its corner: “Lunch” was the clear focus track upon the release of Hit Me Hard and Soft, but “Birds” quickly swooped in (pardon the pun) as the standout, and the early supporters are still listening to and championing the song three months later.
Taylor Mims: Obvious answer: because it’s a great song! Billie has historically had a much darker, moodier sound on her albums – plenty of which can still be found on HMAS – but “Birds of a Feather” is the opposite. The song is pure pop delight with her delicate vocals and the deeply sincere lyrics. The term “I want you to stay” could be dismissed as commonplace, but it’s actually an incredibly vulnerable thing to say to a new love and the lyrics only get better from there. It’s a phenomenally sweet love song that I think will only gain popularity the more it is played.
Andrew Unterberger: You know what pop fans still love, even in 2024? A good love song! You don’t hear as many on top 40 radio as you once did, of course — especially straightforward ones, written without much anger or resentment at their core — but when you hear a great singer testifying “I’ll love you ’til the day that I die” and sounding like they mean it, it’s still hugely powerful no matter who you are.
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4. The crossover success of “Guess,” in a summer that’s already seen songs of same-sex love and attraction from Chappell Roan and Eilish solo hit the top 10: very meaningful for LGBTQ presence and acceptance in pop music, somewhat meaningful, or not ultimately that meaningful?
Katie Bain: Representation is, as ever, important, especially when coming from two of the biggest pop stars on the planet who are at once celebrating and normalizing same sex love and attraction, and via Eilish, doing in a way that’s authentic/not performative. That feels meaningful.
Stephen Daw: Without question, this is a Big Deal™ for the community. It’s not entirely new — Lil Nas X topped the charts back in 2021 with “Montero (Call Me By Your Name),” a song that is very loudly about queer sex. But what’s important about the success of “Guess,” “Lunch,” “Good Luck, Babe!” and most of the other six songs Chappell currently has on the Hot 100 is consistency. Where past tracks about same-sex attraction could be written off as singular hits born out of a cult of personality, the continued success of all these songs about queer romance on the charts proves that audiences aren’t discriminatory when it comes to the object of a good love song — they care about specificity and whether or not it sounds good. That is a huge deal for every LGBTQ+ artist who has ever been told that they need to make their song more “universally appealing” (read: “less gay”), and a message to labels and distributors around the globe that these antiquated “rules” about what sells in pop music have been largely abandoned by modern audiences.
Jason Lipshutz: Very meaningful, just like all of these moments that help normalize same-sex feelings and relationships within popular music. Nothing about “Guess” is shocking in 2024, especially following recent hits by Chappell Roan and Eilish, but every song like it remains significant in rearranging the expectations of what a hit can express lyrically and musically. This year has been a landmark one for LGBTQ artists in the upper reaches of the charts, but more work needs to be done, and more songs like “Guess” means more positive developments.
Taylor Mims: This is a very meaningful moment for LGBTQ+ representation in pop music, but especially for queer women. For centuries, women who love women have been disappeared from culture because of homophobia, for their own safety or simply because people didn’t think they were real. On top of that, there was the issue of “who their audience would be.” Gay men have long been a target audience for “divas” and pop stars, but Chappell and Billie (along with Renee Rapp, Janelle Monáe, boygenius and MUNA) have proven that queer women are an eager and powerful fanbase. And I much as I would like to believe that every person in those massive Chappell crowds identifies as LGBTQ+, I don’t think that’s the case — she is appealing to the widest of audiences.
Andrew Unterberger: I don’t know if it’s as meaningful as the other examples on the whole, but I think it’s particularly meaningful simply in its casting. If this was a decade ago, maybe Charli just enlists the guy from The Dare to be her leering co-star, and the results are fun but uninspiring. Instead, she keeps him behind the decks for “Guess” and allows her female peer to be the ogler — with much richer (and likely more successful) results. That’s a pretty big deal. Now the question is who on the hetero male side of pop hitmaking will be bold enough to do the same with a queer male star like Troye Sivan or Lil Nas X.
5. If you could flip the “Guess” batting order and have Charli XCX appear on a track from Hit Me Hard and Soft, which would you have her feature on?
Katie Bain: Given the hard left that “L’Amour de Ma Vie” takes at the 3:40 mark, it would create a huge sense of anticipation for Charli to show up on this last section of the song, which, which it’s ’80s synth production, exists within the electronic world she’s already so adept in.
Stephen Daw: I think a Charli feature on “L’Amour de Ma Vie,” especially with the song’s big electronic breakdown in its final minute, would be very cool. Maybe a duet takes the hyperpop concept and expands it into an entire dance remix for Charli and Billie to sing over, or maybe it gives Charli another chance to show off her ballad skills like she did on Brat’s SOPHIE tribute “So I” — either method would make for a stunning new version of the song.
Jason Lipshutz: Let’s go with “The Diner” — it’s got a cheeky streak that’s up Charli’s alley, and I’m imagining her pumping up that pre-outro bridge. Let’s do it, folks!
Taylor Mims: My first thought was “Lunch” since it sonically makes sense for Charli, but I wouldn’t want to change that song in the slightest. So, “L’Amour De Ma Vie” would be my runner-up. The track would probably need to be put in electro-overdrive, but the lyrical content would be fun for Charli to step into. A Charli verse about a terrible ex would undoubtedly be a banger and would take that dagger of a song and make it a death blow.
Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t be surprised if Billie and Charli were planning a “Lunch” Pt. 2 — “Linner,” perhaps? “Tea Time”? — as we speak.
One of the fastest-rising artists of the 2020s takes another step up the ladder this week, as Chappell Roan hits new highs on both the Billboard 200 albums chart and the Billboard Hot 100.
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Thanks to a summer-long crescendoing of public interest (and less clutter this week from big album debuts), Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess albums climbs 8-4 on the Billboard 200 dated Aug. 10. Meanwhile “Good Luck, Babe!” ascends 10-8 on the Hot 100 — highest of her six separate entries on the chart this week, with all except the newer “Babe” hailing from Midwest Princess.
Which of the two charts is Roan likely to top first? And what impact will the tremendous success she’s enjoying have on the larger music industry? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Chappell Roan’s The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess jumps four spots to a new high of No. 4 on the Billboard 200 this week, reaching the peak in its 19th week on the chart, while “Good Luck, Babe!” climbs 10-8 this week to also hit a new peak on the Hot 100. If you had to bet on one of them to reach No. 1 on their respective charts, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: If I had to bet on one of them reaching No. 1 on their respective charts, I would choose “Good Luck, Babe!” Singles often have an easier upward trajectory on the charts because they stand alone. Often times a single is its own story allowing it to capture the audience attention in a shorter time frame and then generate sales and streams. On the other hand, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a combination of 14 tracks, so its chart performance depends on the reception of all the songs. This makes its rise potentially slower as multiple factors contribute to its overall success.
Kyle Denis: This is hard – especially because a No. 1 on both charts (perhaps the same week?) is definitely not out of the question! If I had to bet on one of them, I would put my money on Midwest Princess topping the Billboard 200. It’s one of the few albums in recent memory that’s genuinely being consumed as a unit versus individual songs. The singles chart also feels more competitive right now; the chart’s top ten has been relatively stagnant in recent weeks. Nonetheless, should a “Good Luck, Babe!” music video arrive soon, all bets are off.
Lyndsey Havens: I think “Good Luck, Babe!” is well on its way to a becoming a Hot 100 chart topper. As evidenced by the gradual climb of both the hit and its respective album, Chappell manages to grow more and more powerful with each passing week. And on the heels of her epic Lollapalooza performance in Chicago this past weekend – where she garnered the biggest crowd to date across the fest’s global franchise – I would expect to see “Babe” jump into the chart’s top 5, at least. And as we should all know by now, it’s only up from there, as it seems Chappell has all the luck she needs.
Andrew Unterberger: We’re getting to the point where it feels like she could make the jump on either chart with a single lever pull — either a music video or official remix for “Babe” or a deluxe reissue of Princess would likely do the respective tricks. (A deluxe Princess reissue featuring a new remix of “Babe” could possibly even accomplish the double whammy.) But assuming she doesn’t do any of that, I’d probably vote for “Babe,” just because it’s still massive on streaming and growing on radio, and every new bump in momentum she gets — a gigantic festival set here, a political endorsement there — seems to hoist it higher. But it very well might end up being a photo finish between the two.
Christine Werthman: I’m going with “Good Luck, Babe!” going to No. 1 on the Hot 100. I’ve heard it on the radio multiple times a day, in coffee shops, at rest stops — the song is everywhere. I know the album has a shorter climb to the top, but I’m skeptical that it would dethrone Taylor.
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2. While “Babe” remains her lone top 10 hit, the Hot 100 is increasingly overrun with Roan songs the past couple months — also including “Hot to Go!” (No. 26), “Pink Pony Club” (No. 42), “Red Wine Supernova” (No. 52), “Casual” (No. 76) and “Femininomenon” (No. 86) — most of which are still rising on streaming and/or radio. If you had to bet on one of those songs eventually joining “Babe” in the top 10, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: I would have to say “Hot to Go!” — it’s my favorite out of the bunch. The song has a catchy melody that’s infectious and lyrics that are easy to remember. “Hot to Go!” is also filled with a joyful message of self-love, which resonates with many listeners and allows the track to connect with a wide audience. Additionally, the track features an easy-to-learn dance routine that pairs perfectly with the chorus, making it even more engaging and shareable, especially on TikTok.
Kyle Denis: Although “Hot to Go!” is punchier and already has a head start, I’m betting on “Red Wine Supernova” — that melody is undeniable, and her voice drips with charisma on that track. I can also see a case being made for “Pink Pony Club,” given how emotional its message is.
Lyndsey Havens: Impossible to pick just one. The magic of Roan is that any of these songs – if not all – could have sleeper hit potential. I’ve lost count of all the times I have heard someone humming “Casual,” or blasting “Pink Pony Club” from their car — and even my mom has become familiar with the “Hot to Go” arm moves after seeing enough Lolla clips on social media. But while I think “Pony” and “Hot” are rightfully leading the charge right now – as both are amped up summer-ready hits – I wouldn’t count “Casual” out just yet. As the season cools down and we head into fall, that song falls more in line with the aesthetic of the season and could ultimately surpass its frontrunners.
Andrew Unterberger: The fact that any of the five are highly credible and conceivable candidates here is pretty insane to begin with — but I’m leaning towards “Pink Pony Club,” which has a sorta slow-building anthemic quality to it that seems like it could prove kinda inextinguishable in the months to come. Hell, even Blink-182 is riffing on it now.
Christine Werthman: I could see “Casual” getting used in a show or movie and that being the boost it needs to take a run at the top. “Casual” is the first Roan song I ever heard in 2022, and I thought it was so clever in its summation of situationship confusion (also accurately described the same year in the beginning of the FKA twigs song “oh my love”). It’s not as bombastic as some of the other Hot 100 options from Roan, but it’s still quirky, smart and honest, with a big belting moment, highly specific scenes and a singalong chorus. It remains one of my favorites.
3. We’re practically starting to run out of Rise and Fall songs that aren’t already Hot 100 hits — but if you had to bet on one more to join the party at this point, which would it be?
Christopher Claxton: I think “California” has great potential to join the Hot 100. “California” is Roan’s reflection on the pursuit of dreams and the inevitable disappointment that sometimes comes with them. She sings about someone who leaves their home to chase their dreams in California, a land of opportunity much like New York. However, upon arriving, Roan realizes she may have been disillusioned, yearning to return home and relive what she left behind. This is a deeply relatable story, as many people leave their hometowns for school or their dream jobs, only to face unexpected challenges and homesickness. In this track, Roan is raw and honest, and I believe her audience can respect and connect with the complex emotions she shares.
Kyle Denis: Probably “My Kink Is Karma,” people love that one!
Lyndsey Havens: As someone who’s not even on TikTok, I know that “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” sure is. That song is so much fun and, as such, so very Brat.
Andrew Unterberger: The smart bet is definitely “My Kink Is Karma,” since that’s built enough streaming momentum to already be on the cusp of making the chart. But “Super Graphic Ultra Modern Girl” feels like the most single-ready of the remaining non-Hot 100 hits — and it’s being used in a suddenly unavoidable Marshall’s commercial — while “Naked in Manhattan” is forever just a big synch away from going absolutely nuclear. We’ll see.
Christine Werthman: I’m putting my chips on “My Kink Is Karma.” Like “Casual,” it’s a mid-tempo song filled with super-specific, clever callouts and an explosive vocal moment. As we’ve seen with other Hot 100 hitmakers (see: Olivia Rodrigo, Gayle), artists find success with tell-off tracks. Roan’s is a takedown, but her delivery is too cool to care, as she coos, “Wishing you the best in the worst way/ Using your distress as foreplay.” It’s a wicked little number, and though it made it onto the Bubbling Under chart, it deserves to jump to the Hot 100.
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4. Chart success is one thing, but last Thursday Chappell Roan also played to a late-afternoon Lollapalooza crowd so packed to the back of Grant Park that the photos and videos almost defied belief — especially considering she only made her first appearance on either the Billboard 200 or Hot 100 just four months ago. What do you think is the biggest reason Roan has been able to experience such exponentially expanding success over such a short period of time?
Christopher Claxton: Chappell Roan has a sound that feels both fresh and familiar, making her music incredibly accessible. Her voice and style bring to mind a combination of Taylor Swift and Lana Del Rey, with songs like “Casual” echoing the youthful charm of early Taylor Swift. Moreover, her songs are versatile — they’re perfect for a commute to work, energizing for a workout at the gym, and captivating for live performances. Many artists struggle to create songs that are equally good for streaming and performing, but Chappell Roan seems to have mastered this balance. This versatility, along with her relatable lyrics and engaging melodies, has allowed her to connect with a wide audience and experience rapid success.
Kyle Denis: In addition to Midwest Princess being stacked with stone-cold bangers, Chappell’s live show has really helped her exponential rise. From opening up for Olivia Rodrigo to this latest Lollapalooza set, her theatrical, campy and intensely physical performances have captivated audiences across the country – even those who may not have been enamored with her music off a casual Spotify listen. She’s also making pop music that truly feels fresh; she’s unabashedly queer, her songwriting is evocative yet accessible, and she’s speaking directly to the rising generation of pop music consumers.
Lyndsey Havens: Something I’ve been talking about a lot lately is the idea of a narrative – something that, in an era of TikTok-propelled stars – has felt like less of a driving factor for stardom today. But with Chappell, not only is the music incredible but her story is, too: being dropped by a major label only to move back home only to not lose faith and work even harder only to reemerge more herself and have those songs be the ones that connect so deeply. What has made her rise so much fun for fans new and old is that it feels incredibly earned, and she doesn’t shy away from just how long her journey to the top has been – which is exactly why it feels so special to be a part of it now.
Andrew Unterberger: The biggest thing for me with Chappell is that she seems to be pulling in fans from all age groups. She obviously has the teens and early 20-somethings in her pocket, but I also can’t remember another new pop artist in my adult lifetime who’s inspired more visible excitement in grown folks I know who don’t normally follow or care about contemporary pop music. I’m still not totally sure what to attribute that to, aside from the fact that she’s reminiscent of the best parts of pop stars who emerged a generation earlier (namely Lady Gaga and Katy Perry), so she feels instantly familiar to older fans — but with a modern spin and underdog edge that makes her feel fresh and fun to root for. It’s fascinating stuff, and we’re going to be unpacking all of it for a long time to come.
Christine Werthman: Roan’s album dropped in September 2023, but 2024 brought her a host of live performance opportunities that catapulted her to a wider audience: opening slots on Olivia Rodrigo’s tour, legendary sets at Coachella, Governors Ball and Bonnaroo, and an epic Tiny Desk concert. The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is a no-skips album, but Roan really shines live, and this year, she got the proper stages to showcase her talents, which has led people back to her album.
5. Roan’s runaway success is so staggering that it’s bound to cause ripple effects throughout the industry. What’s one way you could (or already do) see her breakout having either a short-term or long-term impact on the music world?
Christopher Claxton: While the full impact of Roan’s success may still be unfolding, one notable short-term effect is her influence on fashion and performance aesthetics. Her elaborate outfits, ranging from the Statue of Liberty to a wrestler and a fairy, have become major talking points. This emphasis on theatrical and eye-catching costumes is likely to inspire other artists to invest more in their visual presentation, enhancing both their performances and their overall appeal. In the long-term, Roan’s success highlights the growing importance of platforms like TikTok in an artist’s career. The platform’s ability to turn snippets into viral sensations can significantly amplify a song’s reach and impact, leading more artists to harness TikTok and platforms like it to advance their music and connect with audiences in creative ways.
Kyle Denis: Opening slots on major tours have always been coveted gets, but I think after the explosive growth of Gracie Abrams and Sabrina Carpenter post-Eras Tour and Roan post-Guts Tour will make artists and their teams even more hellbent on securing those spots. I wouldn’t be surprised if Amaarae, who is opening up for Carpenter’s upcoming trek, experiences a similar jump in success. And the same goes for whoever Roan picks to open her inevitable headlining tour.
Lyndsey Havens: I think both in and out of the industry people are driving with their eyes on the rear-view mirror much more – pushing ahead, but also giving much more thought, time and attention to artists who may have previously been overlooked or pushed in a wrong direction or simply not afforded patience. I think – and hope – the success that Chappell is having right now is placing an emphasis back on slow growth and supported artist development. Now that we have all caught up to Chappell, maybe we’ll be more ready for whomever comes next.
Andrew Unterberger: Folks are learning they need to pay attention to opening acts! Between Sabrina Carpenter going supernova post-Eras Tour and Chappell becoming massive following her run kicking off the Guts World Tour, it’s clear that the opener slots on these big-ticket tours — which are increasingly central events in pop culture, even for those not attending — can function as sort of a minor-league feeder system for burgeoning talents who are already ready for the big show. We’re going to see far more eyes on those artists, hoping to catch a future superstar in an embryonic stage, and hopefully we’re going to see those artists doing everything they can to step their own games up and seize the opportunity in front of them.
Christine Werthman: I don’t know that I’ve seen much yet, but I hope her success throws open the door for more queer pop stars on the main stage.
A whole lot has changed in the music industry of course of the 21st century, but one thing has remained entirely consistent: When Eminem releases a new album, that thing goes straight to No. 1.
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This week, The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace) becomes Eminem’s latest new LP to top the Billboard 200 (on the chart dated July 27), now an 11-album streak that dates all the way back to 2000 sophomore set The Marshall Mathers LP. With its bow atop the chart, the finale for Em’s longtime alter ego deposes Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department — which had reigned for its first 12 weeks of release, but now slips to No. 4 on the listing.
How has Eminem remained so consistently successful for 25 years now? And what will he do next now that his signature persona has been laid to rest? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Eminem scores his 11th consecutive No. 1 new album this week with The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grace), moving 281,000 units in the album’s first week. On a scale of 1-10, how happy do you think he should be with that debut performance?
Anna Chan: 10 out of 10! Not only was he the artist who unseated Taylor Swift from her impressive 12-week reign of the Billboard 200, TDOSS also had the biggest week of any rap album so far this year – nothing to sneeze at.
Kyle Denis: Solid 8. It’s a handsome debut that’s relatively in line with his last few studio LPs, he has a concurrent Hot 100 top 10 hit in lead single “Houdini” this week, and he’ll go down in history as the artist who ended Swift’s historic run atop the Billboard 200. I’m sure he would have liked to clear the 300,000 mark, but this is nothing to scoff at.
Jason Lipshutz: A 9. One point deducted for getting close to the 300k mark without quite getting there, but this is a mainstream triumph for an artist who’s 25 years into his career, and who strode past Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department with ease, after months of other artists failing to knock the album out of the top spot. As a commercial entity, The Death of Slim Shady has been a home run for Eminem, considering the continued success of lead single “Houdini,” and now the splashy bow of the full-length.
Michael Saponara: 7. It’s more than 2020’s Music to Be Murdered By, which is a win, but when you’re the best-selling rapper of all-time, any first week sum that starts with a two probably isn’t going to produce too much serotonin for the body.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe an 8. It’s a tremendous number for Eminem at this point in his career — really for just about any rapper in 2024 — and though it seems like he can pull those kinds of numbers in his sleep at this point, he certainly put his all into the rollout this time around. If this really is the end of an era for Eminem, it’s a thoroughly respectable performance to go out on.
2. Few, if any, rappers have managed the commercial consistency that Eminem has in his 25 years as a star — what do you think the biggest reason is he’s still able to produce such strong first-week performances this deep into his career?
Anna Chan: First and foremost, Em has been consistently talented throughout his entire career. But setting the talent aspect aside, he knows how to keep old fans around while building upon his base by bringing in new listeners. For example, on TDOSS, you’ve got Em staples such as hip-hop icon Dr. Dre as a producer again, the emotional track featuring strong female vocals (“Temporary” with frequent collaborator Skylar Grey), following up on fan favorites (“Guilty Conscience 2,” the sequel to Slim Shady LP’s “Guilty Conscience”), all while bringing on newer artists to drawn in fresh listeners not only from hip-hop, but other genres as well (most notably Jelly Roll on the stunning album closer “Somebody Save Me”).
Kyle Denis: He’s been steadfast in his brand for a quarter-century. Even as he’s matured, the musical characters of Marshall Mathers and Slim Shady are mainstays in his catalog – from lyrics to album titles. He’s built a world based around himself that fans have been able to deconstruct and buy into for almost three decades. It’s hard to say that anyone else in hip-hop has accomplished that on this level. Nonetheless, you do also have to acknowledge the built-in capital he gets from being both a mainstream white rapper and a crossover star, his fanbase doesn’t mirror that of quite a few of hip-hop’s top artists, which works in his favor.
Jason Lipshutz: The combination of an extremely dedicated fan base who’s ready to support Eminem at every twist and turn, and a new project that was primed to appeal to casual fans who haven’t kept up with every release. Em is always going to have the diehards that will press play, regardless of whether his albums veer toward pop or toward the more idiosyncratic or puerile — but a full-length like The Death of Slim Shady, complete with a radio-ready lead single that harkens back to his zeitgeist-capturing early smashes, speaks to a listenership beyond that core. That’s how Eminem has maintained a level of consistency, while also scoring above-average debut figures like the one for The Death of Slim Shady.
Michael Saponara: I’m still trying to find out the actual answer to this one myself. It’s been an incredible run spanning 25 years and he’s seen different generations of rap come and go. Em’s popularity has crossed over into music deity territory to the point whenever he drops, he’s going to be a commercial force. He’s done a pretty good job of balancing feeding his fans, but not oversaturating the market the last decade. Nostalgia helps and he still maintains an image and vigor for rapping that somewhat resembles his prime.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s helped that with all his strengths and flaws, Eminem has always been a pretty obvious one of one — I don’t know which rapper you’d even consider to be the closest to him in terms of personality, style and skill, but even if there was an obvious pick there, chances are they’d have never tasted a fraction of his crossover visibility. If you were an Eminem fan 25 years ago, chances are pretty good no one has ever really taken over his place in your heart. So if you were one of those early fans (and you still care about music at all), that means you probably still care about Eminem.
3. While Eminem albums have almost always come strong out of the gate, in recent years they’ve struggled more to produce the extended impact of his early albums. Do you think Death will buck the trend, or will it also be a mostly one-week blast?
Anna Chan: There’s so much nostalgia (guess who’s back? It’s not just Slim Shady – but Ken Kaniff too!) to go with the classic Shady and grown-up Eminem that I give TDOSS at least two to three weeks at No. 1, possibly more – though perhaps not consecutive weeks. After all, there doesn’t appear to be a super-strong, likely long-lasting new challenger until Post Malone’s F-1 Trillion in mid-August.
Kyle Denis: Probably a one-week blast unless one of the songs clicks. My money is on the JID and Jelly Roll tracks.
Jason Lipshutz: It will buck the trend thanks to “Houdini.” The continued strength of the single will ensure that the album maintains a streaming presence and keep The Death of Slim Shady from falling out of the cultural consciousness too quickly. I’m not sure it will be able to spend a ton of time atop the Billboard 200 in the coming months, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it lingering in the top 10 of the chart as the weather cools off and we start thinking about holiday plans.
Michael Saponara: I think he bucks the trend. This project seems to be cutting through more than Music to Be Murdered By and I believe the “Houdini” rapper has a few more tricks up his sleeve to boost sales and interest. Does he pull a deluxe out of his hat?
Andrew Unterberger: I think it’s ultimately gonna be a pretty short commemorative service for Slim — but it’s worth pointing out that the album hasn’t seen physical release yet, so when those CD and vinyl versions of it ship (in September and October, respectively), it wouldn’t be shocking to see the album surge back up the Billboard 200.
4. Now that Eminem has pronounced the death of his signature rap alter ego, what would you like to see him do for his next act?
Anna Chan: We already know he’s a funny man from some of his lyrics and music videos, and that he can put butts in theater seats (remember when 8 Mile opened at No. 1?), so why not combine the two and put him in some comedy films? (I’m still cackling at his Crank Yankers episode!)
Kyle Denis: Continue uplifting the next generation of Detroit rappers and make a project that doesn’t feel like torture to sit through.
Jason Lipshutz: I’d love to see him try something totally different, with new collaborators and an unexpected aesthetic. Eminem’s technical skill is undeniable, and he has nothing left to prove within the hip-hop space that he’s carved out for himself. And while projects like The Death of Slim Shady are wide-ranging and crowd-pleasing, they also riff on a lot of the beats he’s previously played. Why not stray into the unknown and push the limits of his artistry, with the knowledge that he could always return to his preferred mode? Fingers crossed that he spends the next few years taking the chances he has thoroughly earned.
Michael Saponara: I enjoyed the conceptuality of TDOSS and I can’t quit Slim Shady. Maybe it’s because that’s the Em I grew up on, but I’d like to see a resurrection of Slim Shady down the line at some point.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a Bad Meets Evil-style teamup with a Detroit up-and-comer? Em’s shown interest in helping to cultivate the next generation of Motown talent, and his sometimes-overbearing personality can seem a lot fresher as one half of a pass-the-mic duo. Could be cool.
5. Taylor Swift’s The Tortured Poets Department falls to No. 4 in its 13th week on the ranking — the first time since its debut it hasn’t been No. 1. Do you think it gets back to the top spot in the next few weeks, or has its reign mostly come to an end?
Anna Chan: My Magic 8-Ball predicts Swift will reach back into her bag, bruh, and possibly drop some new version(s) of TTPD to reinvigorate the album’s numbers and get back into the No. 1 spot.
Kyle Denis: Knowing Taylor, she has 500 other versions of the album to put up for sale, so she’ll be back in the top spot soon enough. Not to mention she’s officially announced the album’s second radio single (“I Can Do It With a Broken Heart’) and the Eras Tour will be back in the States by October.
Jason Lipshutz: It will get back to No. 1. “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” might turn into a real smash in the coming weeks, and there are always more consumers to find, especially as the holiday season draws near. The lesson remains the same: underestimate Taylor at your own risk.
Michael Saponara: Is this bait to get in the Swifty crosshairs? I don’t want that smoke. Taylor Swift will find her way back to the apex one way or another. The TTPD train isn’t coming to a halt just yet.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it might take Swift a few weeks, but she’ll be back. There’s still new CD editions to be shipped, new singles and videos to be unveiled — maybe she’ll even get in the mix with the presidential election at some point? We haven’t heard the last of Poets to be sure.
The streak continues at least one more week for Taylor Swift: With her Tortured Poets Department spending its 12th week atop the Billboard 200 albums chart (dated July 20), she now has the longest-reigning LP of her entire storied career. And just below it this week: Americana superstar Zach Bryan’s 19-track new LP The Great American Bar Scene.
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While Bar Scene debuted at No. 17 on last week’s Billboard 200 after just its first day of release — with the album receiving an unusual Thursday release to coincide with the 4th of July holiday — it jumps to No. 2 this week, with 137,000 units moved in its first full week of release. While that number is higher than any second-place finisher on the 200 since Billie Eilish’s Hit Me Hard and Soft in early June, it’s down from Bryan’s 2023 self-titled set, which posted 200,000 units and debuted atop the 200.
How should Bryan feel about the set’s early performance? And what might he look to change with his next album and its rollout? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. The Great American Bar Scene reaches No. 2 on the Billboard 200 this week with 137,000 units moved in its first full week of availability. Is that first-week performance lower, higher, or about what you would have expected from Zach Bryan’s new set?
Kyle Denis: These numbers are definitely a bit lower than I expected. Granted the album didn’t spawn an instant first-week smash à la “I Remember Everything” (with Kacey Musgraves), but I thought the goodwill from his arena-packing tour and the steady streaming performance of “Pink Skies” would be enough for the set to at least match the first-week total of Bryan’s 2023 self-titled LP.
Jason Lipshutz: A little lower based on last year’s self-titled bow, which cracked 200,000 (albeit with a traditional Friday release). Bryan has only grown in stature since last August’s album release — “I Remember Everything” with Kacey Musgraves has joined songs like “Something in the Orange” and “Heading South” as a signature track, while Bryan has been playing to stadium crowds in the album interim — so while another six-figure showing is impressive, especially less than a year after the last full-length, the dip in equivalent album units was a little unexpected.
Jessica Nicholson: That number feels close to what I would expect, given its July 4 release date and given that fans (especially Bryan superfans) are more apt to delve into the album deeply within its first few days of release.
Kristin Robinson: This is below what I would’ve guessed, especially because this album had 19 songs, a pretty long track listing and longer than his self-titled album from 2023 which had a better first week. Given Zach has picked up so many fans in the last couple years, I would think the long track list plus growing fanbase would equal a stronger first week than previous projects for him. In the streaming era, I think the second and third weeks are especially telling for the success of the album so I’m waiting to see what the next weeks bring – were these first week numbers primarily one-time curiosity listens or will this album be a grower?
Andrew Unterberger: It’s lower. When Zach Bryan debuted with 200,000 units last year, it was attention-grabbing, but it also felt like it was just the beginning for him — his trajectory just kept going up from there, right up to the No. 6 Hot 100 debut for “Pink Skies” last month. To be honest, I thought this album’s debut (well, technically not debut, but you know) would leave the self-titled’s in the dust, and I remain a little at a loss for why it’s instead coming up well short.
2. The first-full-week numbers are down from Bryan’s prior self-titled set, which bowed at No. 1 with 200,000 units in September 2023. What do you think is the biggest reason for the decreased performance?
Kyle Denis: Definitely the lack of a something as instantaneous as “I Remember Everything.” On that note, Kacey is arguably the most streaming-friendly artist Bryan has ever put on one of his studio albums, and the lack of an artist of that specific caliber probably contributed to a dip in general interest for the new record. There’s also the fact that Bryan has been notably ubiquitous over the past two years ago – not that that’s stunted the success of other massive artists like Taylor Swift and Drake. The difference here is that Bryan has released three LPs, one live album, two EPs and several standalone singles in the past two years – and they rarely deviate from his trademark sound. People might be feeling just a little bit of Zach Bryan fatigue.
Jason Lipshutz: The Great American Bar Scene was likely hamstrung by both the Fourth of July release — with plenty of Americans not paying attention to new music that Thursday, and queuing up another spin of “Party in the USA” while celebrating the holiday — as well as an over-saturation of Bryan’s recorded material. The singer-songwriter has become an undisputed superstar, but even the biggest artist would likely struggle to conjure as much excitement around a new 19-song project as the 16-song project that they released 11 months earlier. So while Bryan’s devoted listeners were ready for The Great American Bar Scene to arrive, I’d guess that some casual fans weren’t quite as prepared to press play during its opening week. And that’s fine! Bryan will have plenty of material for both his stadium shows and for all types of listeners to discover at their own pace.
Jessica Nicholson: 2024 has been a year of big album releases so far — Beyonce, Ariana Grande, Taylor Swift, Future and Metro Boomin among them — so one reason for the decreased performance could simply be there are already so many attention-grabbing projects out there for fans to consume this year. That’s in addition to a more upbeat, danceable slate of viral hits that have dominated the first half of 2024, such as Shaboozey’s “A Bar Song (Tipsy),” the Wallen/Post collab “I Had Some Help” and Sabrina Carpenter’s “Espresso.”
Kristin Robinson: Two things. First, I just think the self-titled album was stronger in general. That album was a phenomenal highlight reel of what Zach is capable of as a singer-songwriter. Second, I think Zach’s free-wheeling approach to releases can hurt him and it did here. He does not like playing the industry game, which I can respect to a certain extent, but sometimes his unwillingness to do typical promotion and marketing means that fans just are not aware that new music is coming. Pair that with the fact that he’s put out more music in the last twelve months than some artists do in the span of 2-5 years and you garner a mix of confusion or even apathy from fans with each release.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s easy to blame the 4th of July drop — both for splitting up his first-week numbers and for burying news of its release — and to some extent, it’s probably fair. But I don’t totally buy it as the only or even the main explanation; when artists are as big in 2024 as Zach Bryan has become, fans will find your new album one way or the other, and it’s not like Bryan ever benefited from a particularly massive rollout on prior albums either. I’m more likely to buy that folks are just a little too spent on Bryan — or based on his robust catalog numbers, maybe too busy catching up with the older stuff? — at the moment to stream this new album with any particular ravenousness, and that with no physical release yet to go with the set, his early numbers are a little vulnerable to such dips in enthusiasm. But I’m still sorta stunned the dip was this pronounced.
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3. The two big hits from the album so far seem to be the pre-release single “Pink Skies” and the new top 20 debut “28.” Which of the two songs do you think will ultimately be the biggest hit from the set — or do you think something else on the album will overtake both?
Kyle Denis: I think “Pink Skies” will ultimately stand as the album’s biggest hit, but “28” could certainly overtake it with a remix. While I find the John Mayer joint (“Better Days”) just okay, there’s certainly potential for it to become another hit off the record based solely on their combined star power.
Jason Lipshutz: “Pink Skies” is the one that will endure, based on both its Hot 100 track record and its sonic makeup; the song remains the highest-charting new Bryan song a few weeks after its release, and its harmonica-heavy, gently rendered reflections of post-death togetherness is ripe for getting fans choked up at Bryan’s shows, in between bellowing out the lyrics. “Pink Skies” demonstrates Bryan’s appeal as a detailed storyteller and subtly powerful vocalist, and will be the defining song from this set.
Jessica Nicholson: “Pink Skies” is beautifully delivered, and music listeners seem to have gravitated toward the song’s story of navigating loss, while the jangly percussion and harmonica keep it from being too forlorn. This seems to have gained the most traction, though “28” feels slightly smoother, sonically, so I could see it potentially overtaking “Pink Skies” as the album’s biggest hit.
Kristin Robinson: I think “28” will be the most dominant song from this album overall in terms of popularity. That hook is undeniable. But “Pink Skies,” which is about grief and losing a loved one, will continue to live on as a favorite among the fanbase. I see it being cemented in his live sets and continuing to be a high streamer for him, but maybe not his greatest crossover success.
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, with Bryan’s (still objectively impressive) first-week numbers coming in a little bit soft by his current standards, the massive bow of “Pink Skies” — and its continued top 20 endurance — becomes even more impressive in retrospect. It may end up being more of a defining hit for him than I would’ve thought upon its debut.
4. The guests on Bar Scene are split between the galactically famous (Bruce Springsteen, John Mayer) and the more if-you-know-you-know type (John Moreland, Noeline Hofmann). Do any of them bring out anything particularly new or interesting from Bryan and his music to you?
Kyle Denis: Not particularly – and that’s part of why the new record feels a bit limp at times. There’s nothing close to “Hey Driver,” which found The War and Treaty’s robust, soulful tones pushing Bryan into new, refreshing vocal territory.
Jason Lipshutz: Noeline Hofmann is the first guest that appears on the Great American Bar Scene track list, on the beautiful and affecting duet “Purple Gas,” and the singer-songwriter had me feeling like the Shaq “I wasn’t familiar with your game” meme. Hofmann not only holds her own against Bryan, but her soaring tone complements the more gravelly aspects of his delivery; not only did “Purple Gas” make me want to take a deeper dive into her discography, but it also made me hope that this collaboration wouldn’t be a one-off.
Jessica Nicholson: Bryan’s music incorporates elements of so many different styles, that each of his collaborations feels cohesive with the album’s solo tracks. Some lean slightly more rock, others folk or bluesy, but they are all within Bryan’s expansive musical wheelhouse.
Kristin Robinson: Zach tends to do this – equally mixing newer, smaller artists as features next to his big-name heroes. I love that about his records. I was especially impressed by Noeline Hofmann, and I plan to dig into her own music based on her performance on “Purple Gas.” She did not pull out anything particularly new for Zach, we already saw this side of him on the Kacey Musgraves duet “I Remember Everything,” but I think their voices blended well.
Andrew Unterberger: I like John Mayer adding a little loose-limbed jamminess to “Better Days.” There’s definitely something to be unlocked for Bryan and his band there — consider the fever pitch that “Revival” hits live when it stretches out to double-digit minutes, and maybe apply some of those lessons to a mid-album curveball or two next time around.
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5. Bryan may very well be the type of artist who doesn’t put a ton of stock in his first-week performance — but assuming he was, and didn’t want to see those numbers continue to slide from album to album, what’s the most important piece of advice you would give him before he sets out on his next LP?
Kyle Denis: Try not to dilute your presence with so many projects in such quick succession. Let the music – and yourself – breathe for more than a few months at a time.
Jason Lipshutz: I could tell Bryan to hold off a little bit in between album releases in order to stoke anticipation for his next album a little more cleanly, or limit his track list to the sturdiest 12 tracks to limit the sprawl a bit — but honestly, what Bryan has accomplished over the past two years is so wildly impressive that, if I were him, I wouldn’t take a ton of stock in outside opinions! Bryan has toed the line between gargantuan commercial success and industry singularity, blazing his own trail in country-rock without abiding by traditional rollouts or release schedules; while I’d be tempted to nudge him toward music-biz conventions to help his first-week performances rise even higher, that would also betray what he’s created for himself. So: Keep doing you, Zach, and the world will keep listening.
Jessica Nicholson: Bryan is a prolific writer — over the past year, he’s issued a 16-song self-titled project, the five-song Boys of Faith project, and now his 19-song The Great American Bar Scene album. Perhaps giving slightly more time between project releases would be a good option. The past few releases have included several collaborations with a wide-ranging array of artists, which have sparked intrigue and discussion. Continuing the next project with collaborations with some unexpected artists would seem an obvious choice.
Kristin Robinson: Plan out a true roll out. It doesn’t have to be like everyone else’s. I believe there’s a way to craft a roll out that doesn’t make you look like a pop star sell out. I’m still marveling at Charli XCX’s Brat roll out which felt so totally her, and did a great job at reminding people every other week that she had music coming. We live in a time where our attention is divided more than ever, and I would love to live in a Zach Bryan “era” for longer than what he typically gives to fans. Build the world around the music!
Andrew Unterberger: Take a lesson from The Boss: Bryan’s hero and collaborator never stayed in the same place for multiple albums, switching up his approach, his structure, his songwriting and his themes for pretty much every new record during his peak. What would a Zach Bryan small-town theatrical epic sound like? Or a collection of haunted folk ballads? Or — as I wondered the last time we did this — a hits-on-hits-on-hits blockbuster? Part of Bryan’s charm to date has been that his albums haven’t felt overly considered — neither did Springsteen’s first couple — but the really great ones can also plot out a full LP from top to bottom and execute it to perfection. I’m hoping he shows us that side of his skill set next time out.
This week, country singer-songwriter Shaboozey clears the final “Bar” on the Billboard Hot 100 (dated July 13) with his breakout crossover hit.
“A Bar Song (Tipsy),” which heavily interpolates Chingy’s No. 2-peaking 2004 pop-rap smash “Tipsy,” climbs 2-1 in its 12th week on the Hot 100. The single, from Shaboozey’s recently released Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going becomes the second song from a Black artist to top both the Hot 100 and the Hot Country Songs charts in the same week this year — following Beyoncé’s “Texas Hold ‘Em,” from her Cowboy Carter album, which also features Shaboozey on two separate tracks.
What does the song hitting No. 1 mean for both Shaboozey and for country music? And who could be the next breakout start to reach the Hot 100’s apex for the first time in 2024? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.
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1. Shaboozey scores his first Hot 100 No. 1 with “A Bar Song,” in its 12th week on the chart. What do you think was the biggest factor in it making the jump from viral hit to chart-topping crossover smash?
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Josh Glicksman: Not a sexy answer here, but it’s more of several factors compounding to push “A Bar Song” into the stratosphere. The song’s twang fits squarely within the ever-present mainstream moment for country music in 2024; Shaboozey’s savvy interpolation of J-Kwon’s “Tipsy” plays well with the nostalgia factor that thrives on TikTok (even when the core demographic is probably a touch too young to remember the original in its heyday); and a well-timed radio push has not only kept the hit afloat but helped it get over the hump to No. 1.
Lyndsey Havens: Timing, all around. Shaboozey has had mild success prior to “A Bar Song,” which more importantly points to the fact that he has been building his career prior to “A Bar Song.” He and his team were not only prepared for a viral hit, but also knew how to strategize around it, ensuring the song would sustain beyond a social media spike. Plus, the timing of its release – on the heels of Shaboozey’s features on Beyonce’s Cowboy Carter, and at a time when country music is prevalent in the mainstream, and at the height of summer – has helped boost this smash to the top of the charts.
Jason Lipshutz: “A Bar Song” eventually reached No. 1 because it performed well across platforms and formats. The single has racked up hundreds of millions of streams and has been a mainstay in the top 10 of Spotify’s U.S. top songs chart for weeks on end; meanwhile, “A Bar Song” has also topped charts overseas, reached No. 1 on Hot Country Songs, and hit the top 10 of radio charts like Pop Airplay, Country Airplay, Adult Pop Airplay and Rhythmic. Shaboozey has watched his breakthrough hit’s genre-straddling status unlock new audiences, and transcend its early viral-hit classification to become a multi-quadrant smash.
Melinda Newman: Without a doubt, the Beyoncé bounce. He was already making a nice name for himself as a developing artist, but in the six years since he had released his album debut, he had never charted. There was interest in the new album and music, but his association with Beyoncé poured gasoline on the fire and helped propel “A Bar Song” up many different charts covering several formats.
Andrew Unterberger: Like very few new songs, it’s actually selling! Most contemporary hits have one strong week of sales — if that — and then gently recede from there, but “A Bar Song” has topped Digital Song Sales for eight weeks now, consistently roping in new listeners and new fans. That’s allowed it to stay in range of the Hot 100’s top spot as it’s continued to grow on radio and leveled off (without really dropping off) on streaming.
2. Do you think “A Bar Song” is the start of a long career in hitmaking for Shaboozey, or do you think he’s going to struggle a bit living up to the massive breakout success of first solo chart hit?
Josh Glicksman: There are many instances of artists achieving a breakout hit so massive that it creates a looming shadow, but I don’t think that’s the case here. He’s not coming out of nowhere: late May full-length Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going — which debuted and peaked at No. 5 on the Billboard 200 — is already his third album. And between his own tracks, plus features on Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter, he has had four other songs reach various Billboard charts this year. He’s not at the level of an automatic top 40 artist yet, but his 2024 achievements should give him some reliable status on the charts for the foreseeable future.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m not sure he will ever have another hit quite like “A Bar Song,” but considering the strength of his latest album, Where I’ve Been, Isn’t Where I’m Going, I do think Shaboozey is already close to becoming a household name in this era of country music – and as such, think he should have a long career ahead.
Jason Lipshutz: Somewhere in the middle — “A Bar Song” is such a singular hit that it’ll be hard to replicate, but Shaboozey has established himself as a true, new-school star, able to turn a throwback rap hit into a forward-looking country sing-along and imbue that anthem with pop hooks and personality. Shaboozey possesses a unique perspective, and sounds comfortable blending sounds; “A Bar Song” may be his only No. 1 hit for a while, but he’s going to be around for a long time.
Melinda Newman: “A Bar Song” is turning into such a multi-format smash that it’s possible this will be his biggest career hit, but he has enough talent to keep building from here. Not every song will necessarily cross format lines, but it feels like this is just the commercial beginning for an artist who had been putting in the groundwork for years.
Andrew Unterberger: The size of “A Bar Song” maybe feels unrepeatable, but it’s hard to imagine a song this big and this good won’t be the start of a pretty meaningful career in country and pop music for Shaboozey. Hell, he even seemed right at home as a rare country performer among a majority of hip-hop and R&B artists at the BET Awards last week. Even if he never hits No. 1 again, I’d be very surprised if this was anywhere near his last time on the Hot 100.
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3. There’s been a lot of discussion about whether or not Black artists in country music would be getting more opportunities as a result of the early-year success of Beyoncé’s Cowboy Carter album. Does the success of “A Bar Song” demonstrate to you that the Beyoncé Effect is real and demonstrable, or do you think it could still end up being more of a fluke?
Josh Glicksman: I wouldn’t call the song reaching No. 1 a fluke by any stretch whatsoever, but while the Beyoncé Effect is real — very real! — I’m not sure that I’d go so far as to say that it’s demonstrable yet, either. Or, at the very least, the music industry should be cognizant that there is still much work to be done before people should feel ready to pat themselves on the back with regard to giving Black artists in country music the opportunities they’ve long deserved and long been overlooked for within the genre.
Lyndsey Havens: I do think the Beyffect is real, and we are seeing its impact with an artist like Shaboozey — but that said, I also think Shaboozey would be having this moment even without the release of Cowboy Carter. Country music was gaining mainstream attention already, but Carter made sure that the foundational voices in the genre would not be left unheard. And for Shaboozey, I think it works both ways: some were introduced to him through Carter and stayed tuned in for his solo career, while others were attracted to his solo career, only to then discover Beyoncé was “early” on him. Either way, it’s not only a win for Shaboozey but for Black artists in country music as a whole — as he and Bey continue to make history on the charts and set the stage for more record breakers to come.
Jason Lipshutz: The connection between Cowboy Carter and the success of “A Bar Song” cannot be denied, considering how Beyoncé’s latest album introduced Shaboozey to a much wider audience thanks to a pair of features. However, I wouldn’t describe Cowboy Carter as a panacea for the lack of opportunities that Black artists have received in country music prior to this year, or proclaim “A Bar Song” hitting No. 1 as proof positive that those opportunities are finally being given. Artists of color with large and small footprints in the country music community have been gradually enacting change over the course of decades, and while a project like Cowboy Carter or a single like “A Bar Song” scan as important flash points, neither can solve this issue singlehandedly. There’s still a ton of work to do — let’s hope that both chart-toppers help speed up progress.
Melinda Newman: Unfortunately, it still feels more like a fluke. Cowboy Carter is a culturally significant album and one that highlighted the rich role that pioneering Black artists like Linda Martell, who appears on the album, played in country music’s history. But we’re not seeing a huge lift for current artists, and none of the other young Black artists on Cowboy Carter — Willie Jones, Tanner Adell, Brittney Spencer, Reyna Roberts or Tiera Kennedy — have seen major radio results or ongoing upticks in streams after the initial burst.
Andrew Unterberger: Yeah, it’s not exactly a dam-bursting moment for Black artists in country music, but I do still think it’s a meaningful one. Even for as much chart success as Bey had with “Texas Hold ‘Em,” she didn’t quite reach escape velocity on country radio — the song peaked at No. 33 there, and nothing else from the album has even gotten near that much airplay. But “A Bar Song” is now a certified country radio smash, flying 12-6 on the chart this week and bursting through the door Beyoncé helped open. Hopefully the next Black country artist with a song as undeniable as “Texas” or “Bar” will have an even easier time being accepted into the Nashville fold, thanks in part to both of them.
4. Between Sabrina Carpenter and Shaboozey, it’s been a pretty good stretch lately for 2024 breakout artists scoring their first No. 1 on the Hot 100. Who’s an artist that’s been rising lately who you could see joining them in that club before year’s end?
Josh Glicksman: It’s hard to bet on anyone other than Chappell Roan, right? Listeners cannot get enough of her right now, sending four tracks from her 2023 debut album, The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess, to the Hot 100 in addition to her April 2024 single, “Good Luck, Babe!,” which enters the chart’s top 10 for the first time this week. Her star trajectory makes a No. 1 hit seem much more like a “when” than an “if” at this point.
Lyndsey Havens: I’m rooting for Role Model. The alternative artist is gearing up to release his second album Kansas Anymore, and while he has had a taste of the spotlight with prior releases and a past (and public) relationship with Emma Chamberlain, the music on his forthcoming effort marks a new direction. While the songs may not be as fun-filled as “Espresso” or “A Bar Song,” they fall more into the singer-songwriter lane that’s also resonating right now.
Jason Lipshutz: The logical answer would be Chappell Roan, based on her across-the-board momentum, and one could make the case that Tommy Richman could push his way up to No. 1 with “Million Dollar Baby” after spending weeks in the top 10, similar to what Shaboozey just achieved. But I’ll still go with Noah Kahan, who has turned into an arena-level A-lister, and is still earning tons of plays with “Stick Season” years after its release. If he drops a new single before year’s end, I could see that single reaching the top of the Hot 100, based on how much his profile has expanded over the past 12 months.
Melinda Newman: Chappell Roan. “Good Luck, Babe!” has just entered the Top 10 and it feels like she is going to be the next pop superstar. Like Shaboozey and Sabrina Carpenter, she has been at this game for years (including a previous record deal with Atlantic), so she’s been honing her craft and now her time has come.
Andrew Unterberger: Chappell Roan and Tommy Richman are probably the leaders in the clubhouse here given their current presence in the top 10, but I’m gonna go with a bit of a longer shot and say Central Cee. He’s been a chart-topping superstar in his home country of the U.K. for some time, and he’s inching ever-closer to being one here too — thanks largely to co-signs from (and collabs with) stateside A-listers like Drake, J. Cole and Lil Baby. Feels like only a matter of time to me until he gets one over the top on the Hot 100.
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5. J-Kwon’s “Tipsy”: certified classic, fun throwback, or best left in 2004?
Josh Glicksman: It’s a classic (that also doubles as a throwback). From the moment the crunchy, clapping production kicks in, it’s on. Few people have made simple counting more fun than J-Kwon in the past two decades, and even fewer have made the radio mix of their hits superior to the explicit version. Kudos to you, J-Kwon.
Lyndsey Havens: Certified classic – and very deserving of the revival.
Jason Lipshutz: Certified classic! Two decades after its release, that beat still makes my head knock when it stomps into view. Mid-00s hip-hop will always have a special spot in my heart, but “Tipsy” still sounds fresh today, even as some of the contemporary hits around it come across as dated. Perhaps that’s why Shaboozey scooped it up and held it high for the world to revisit and appreciate.
Melinda Newman: Total fun throwback. If you’re not old enough to know the original song from 2004, you still can enjoy Shaboozey’s song and if you do, it’s a nostalgic reminder to a time when your double shot of whiskey days were still in full effect
Andrew Unterberger: It’s funny: At the time, I would have been happy to leave it in 2004, since I thought it just sounded like a knock-off Nelly hook laid over a watered-down version of the “Grindin’” beat. But it’s aged much better than I expected — or maybe I’m just less snide about it after a couple of decades (what’s wrong with a knock-off Nelly hook or a watered-down “Grindin’” beat, anyway?) In any event, now I’d say it’s a very fun throwback, and in the right circumstances you could probably talk me into it being a certified classic.
A pair of good friends, tourmates and collaborators reside in the top two spots of the Billboard 200 this week: Taylor Swift remains at No. 1 with her April blockbuster The Tortured Poets Department, while Eras Tour opener Gracie Abrams bows at No. 2 with sophomore album The Secret of Us.
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It’s a notable week for both artists. Poets reigns for the 10th consecutive frame, making Swift the only artist with three 10-plus-week No. 1 albums in the 21st century. Meanwhile, The Secret of Us easily marks Abrams’ best showing on the chart to date, beating the No. 52 debut of her 2023 debut LP Good Riddance by a full 50 spots.
How much does this particular chart benchmark mean for Swift? And does Abrams’ strong debut mean she’s now countable among this year’s class of breakout pop stars? Billboard staffers answer these questions and more below.
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1. This week, Taylor Swift notches her 10th consecutive week atop the Billboard 200 with The Tortured Poets Department — the longest total reign of any album since Morgan Wallen’s One Thing at a Time notched 19 combined weeks between 2023 and 2024, and her own longest rule since her original 1989 spent 11 weeks on top between 2014 and 2015. On a scale from 1-10, how meaningful do you think this run is for Swift and where she’s at in her career?
Rania Aniftos: I’m going to say 3, because this is the standard for Taylor at this point! She is without a doubt the biggest music star in the world at the moment, and it would shock me if any album of hers from here on out spends less than 10 weeks atop the Billboard 200.
Katie Atkinson: Let’s give it a 10 for 10. Looking at the releases that stood in her way, I don’t think anyone would have predicted that Swift would have an uninterrupted 10-week run at No. 1 back in April. After favoring late-year releases for the bulk of her career – especially October and November – it looks like Swift should maybe make the switch to April albums from here on out, seeing just how long she’s able to dominate the spring-into-summer conversation. Taylor continues to unlock new heights in her career just when you think she’s reached the very pinnacle.
Hannah Dailey: I’d say 7. On paper, that’s an incredibly impressive feat and very indicative of the career apex/popularity high Swift is currently riding. However, I can’t help but think the achievement is a little bit watered down by the fact that she released so, so many digital alternative versions along the way to stay on top (assuming that was her intention). Regardless of whether those sales were actually needed to elongate her reign, her latest accolade remains diluted by public perception that she was purposefully blocking other artists from hitting the No. 1 spot with that strategy.
Jason Lipshutz: A 6. Obviously spending 10 straight weeks atop the Billboard 200 represents a towering commercial feat, although these types of accomplishments are all relative for the biggest artist in the world, who’s in the middle of a precedent-smashing stadium tour, fresh off a record-setting fourth album of the year Grammy win, and who started this run at No. 1 with the biggest album debut of the 2020s. Plus, Swift has already spent more weeks atop the Billboard 200 with a different pop album (albeit one with a more radio-friendly sheen). So while TTPD reaching double-digit weeks at No. 1 is another testament to Swift’s continued enormity, the achievement itself probably feels less meaningful when stacked next to all of Swift’s other, bigger ones.
Andrew Unterberger: An 8. As massive as so many of Swift’s wins have been this decade, this is a sustained chart victory like she hasn’t really seen before. And of course, it’s one she’s seemed particularly motivated to maintain, so clearly it’s one of some amount of personal significance to her.
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2. Just below her on the chart this week, Swift’s Eras Tour opener Gracie Abrams bows at No. 2 with 89,000 units moved for her new album The Secret of Us — both easily the best numbers of her career. What do you think is the particular “secret” to Abrams’ success with this album?
Rania Aniftos: Her songwriting, for sure. Today’s music fans seem to love a storyteller, as we’ve seen with stars like Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Noah Kahan, Teddy Swims and more. Gracie is so honest in her music, and this album is a masterclass in authenticity and musicality. She deserves this overdue success!
Katie Atkinson: We can’t overlook the Taylor bump, of course. Sabrina Carpenter is currently reaching her apex just after opening for Swift in Latin America, Australia and Asia. Now Gracie is having her breakout moment after putting in more than a year as an Eras Tour opener. In this case, she quite literally has a hit Taylor collaboration on her new album, so it’s not just the appearance of a Taylor bump; it’s an actuality. But none of this would be happening if Abrams weren’t a solid artist in her own right who has earned the loyalty of the Swifties through her diaristic songwriting and fondness for Taylor-connected producers (Aaron Dessner, Jack Antonoff).
Hannah Dailey: I think Abrams has long been on an upward trajectory, steadily accumulating listeners from the moment she debuted in 2019 with “Mean It.” But it’s also clear to me that Swift’s cosign – from inviting Abrams to be an opener on the Eras Tour to collaborating on “Us” — is the thing that gave her the extra big push she needed to make it as high as No. 2, a huge improvement from debut album Good Riddance’s peak of No. 52.
Jason Lipshutz: The combination of Abrams’ artistic evolution and tireless work ethic has led her to her career-best chart showing. The Secret of Us marks a significant leap forward for Abrams as a songwriter, co-producer and vocal performer — last year’s Good Riddance was a strong debut, but its follow-up is more distinct and revealing, as if Abrams has dug deeper into what makes her special this year after scratching the surface in 2023. Meanwhile, Abrams has been grinding out tour dates, including headlining gigs and opening stints for her pal Swift, as well as executing a promo blitz for The Secret of Us that put the album release on a lot of radars. She’s issuing the best music of her career to an audience eager to lap it up.
Andrew Unterberger: It’s easy to just give a two-word answer to this — and it’s inarguable that the added spotlight that Taylor Swift has granted Abrams both on the Eras Tour and via her appearance on this set’s “Us” has helped greatly increase her profile. But it’s important to note that Abrams was headed in this direction for years before her association with Swift really developed, building a devoted fanbase, honing her writing and strengthening her performance, securing the right collaborators and slowly but surely extending her reach. She was always likely to get here, Swift just basically ensured that it would definitely happen — and quickly.
3. After a tough few years for rising pop artists attempting to break through, we’ve seen a number of very impressive crossover success stories this year, including Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan and Tommy Richman. Do you think Abrams now belongs in the category with those still-rising new star artists, or does she still have a little more yet to prove?
Rania Aniftos: I think she’ll need one more big hit to follow “Close to You” to solidify her as a pop star, but she’s so close to sitting at that table. We’ll be seeing her headlining festivals in the future for sure.
Katie Atkinson: I think Gracie is at the moment now that Sabrina Carpenter was at last year – which is to say she has a strong following, some A-list endorsements, and a handful of buzzy songs, but she doesn’t yet have her jolt of “Espresso.” When Abrams has an undeniable signature song like that one break through not just on pop radio or with fringe pop fans but to the top five of the Billboard Hot 100, that’s when she’ll have officially arrived.
Hannah Dailey: As pop-facing as The Secret of Us is, Abrams is still way more in the indie singer-songwriter lane than Carpenter or Roan are, which makes it hard to compare them. Even so, there’s no matching the astronomical rises those latter two artists have seen this year. To Abrams’ credit, though, I can’t think of many other rising stars who are as close behind them as she is. It might just be a matter of time.
Jason Lipshutz: Yep, she belongs in that class to me. Those aforementioned artists all have singles that have either reached the top 10 of the Hot 100 or come darn close; Abrams isn’t there quite yet, but I could see the singles from The Secret of Us, “Risk” and “Close to You,” make a push as the album receives more streams this summer. And in the same way that Carpenter turned an opening spot on the Eras tour into her own arena headlining gigs, Abrams is playing some major venues in support of The Secret of Us, with arenas not too far away, in my opinion. Abrams was already rising prior to this album release — she scored a best new artist Grammy nom, after all — but The Secret of Us is going to level her up into a new class of young stars.
Andrew Unterberger: In a different way, but basically, yes. She doesn’t have a major pop hit yet anywhere near the level of “Espresso,” “Million Dollar Baby” or even “Good Luck, Babe!” — that might come soon or it might still be an album or two away. But what she does have is arguably more valuable: a fanbase willing to shell out for physical albums, as Secret tops Billboard‘s Top Album Sales chart this week with its 50,000 sold, also adding another 38,000 in streaming equivalent album units. When you’re both selling and streaming in strong numbers, that means not are you really big, but you’re probably gonna stay that way for some time to come.
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4. Swift and Abrams have a song together, “Us,” that debuts at No. 36 on the Hot 100 this week — becoming Abrams’ highest-ranking hit yet on the chart — while Abrams’ own “Close to You” remains at No. 60 after debuting at No. 49 a couple weeks ago, and her previously released “Risk” makes its debut at No. 94. Which of the three do you see ending up becoming the biggest hit from The Secret of Us, if any of them?
Rania Aniftos: I do love “Close to You” because it really has something for every pop fan. It has the songwriting, it has the catchiness, it has the vocals, it has the TikTok virality. I see it becoming a longtime fan favorite hit.
Katie Atkinson: I’m going to put my money on “Close to You,” just because I can see its uptempo production hanging around a little longer than the Taylor duet. To keep the Sabrina analogy going, maybe “Close to You” will be Gracie’s “Feather,” which was Carpenter’s first Pop Airplay No. 1 before her certified breakout with “Espresso” and then “Please Please Please.”
Hannah Dailey: “Close to You” is such a bop, and fans have been begging her to release it for about seven years now – that’s a lot of built-in hype. Plus, it’s all over TikTok. I think that song’s the front-runner.
Jason Lipshutz: I was a big fan of “Risk” upon its release, and “Us” sounds like a worthy addition to Swift and Dessner’s enchanted forest of indie-leaning folk-pop. But “Close to You” is the one, thanks to its tempo and urgency: the song stomps forward as Abrams declares “I burn for you / And you don’t even know my name,” in a way that recalls Lorde’s subtle yearning but also sounds primed to soundtrack thousands of crestfallen TikTok clips. “Close to You” is going to make noise, and I, for one, can’t wait to see Abrams blow it out on tour.
Andrew Unterberger: “Close to You” is definitely the frontrunner right now, but I heard “Risk” on the radio over the weekend and it felt like a better fit than I would’ve expected. Would probably still bet the former if I had to — and it certainly has a good lead to start — but I could definitely see a world where the latter has the longer tail.
5. Make a prediction: How many total weeks will The Tortured Poets Department spend at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 before ceding the top spot for good?
Rania Aniftos: Let’s say 20! Why not beat Morgan Wallen?
Katie Atkinson: Well, I wish we knew when, exactly, Zach Bryan’s next album is coming out. According to his Instagram, The Great American Bar Scene is coming out July 4th, but it’s unclear what time of day. And since Independence Day is a Thursday, if he releases it during the day, he would only have 24 hours of tracking in this chart week if it comes out early, or he could have a full week on our charts if it came out at midnight into Friday. He’s Taylor’s strongest competition, so I’m going to guess that his first full week will beat hers – meaning she would have 11 straight weeks atop the Billboard 200. But I think she’ll have *at least* one more week left in the tank after that too, with a potential Anthology vinyl release waiting in the wings. So my prediction is 12 weeks at No. 1 overall, surpassing the 11-week runs of the original 1989 and Fearless.
Hannah Dailey: It would be easier to predict if another comparable star was planning to release an album soon, but the front half of the year was so loaded that the second half is kind of a question mark. With that in mind, I’ll give her an even, optimistic 20 weeks. She may be looking to beat Morgan Wallen’s 2020s record, and it definitely seems like it’s in reach for her right now.
Jason Lipshutz: Without a ton of heavy competition in the coming weeks and six-figure equivalent album units months after its release, I could see Department ruling the roost for quite some time. Let’s go with 15 weeks before all is said and done.
Andrew Unterberger: My instinct is 16 or 17, but I feel like if Taylor sees herself being within arm’s reach of 20, she’s not gonna let that opportunity go by. So yeah, let’s say she takes advantage of a couple slow weeks towards the end of the calendar to get to an even 20 weeks this time — and maybe tries to match her second-favorite-number next time out.