Chart Beat

The last time Morgan Wallen and Post Malone joined forces on record, it was for “I Had Some Help” — which debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, spent six weeks atop the chart, and was ultimately named Billboard‘s Song of the Summer for 2024. So when news came that the two were reuniting for a new single, expectations were understandably high.

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That new single, “I Ain’t Comin’ Back,” dropped two Fridays ago (Apr. 18) — just before Easter weekend, which made for good timing with the song’s “There’s a lot of reasons I ain’t Jesus, but the main one is that I ain’t comin’ back” hook. This week, the song debuts at No. 8 on the Hot 100: a strong entrance, but somewhat below the bar set by duo’s previous collaboration.

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How should Morgan Wallen and Post Malone feel about their new song’s initial performance? And will it still grow into a “Help”-sized smash? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

1. Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” debuts at No. 8 on the Hot 100 this week. Is that spot lower, higher, or about where you would have expected it to debut?

Katie Atkinson: I think that’s exactly where I would have expected. While their last team-up “I Had Some Help” debuted atop the chart, it also had a megawatt live debut at 2024 Stagecoach setting it up for success and was a lot more upbeat. This new one is still catchy but has a sleepier tempo. I think a top 10 debut for a midtempo country jam chock-full of Christian imagery is pretty impressive – especially given it’s the fifth song preceding Wallen’s next album.

Kyle Denis: Maybe a little bit lower. “I Had Some Help” was such a massive No. 1 debut that I expected at least a top five entry for the new duet. Nonetheless, “Comin’ Back” isn’t as immediately catchy as “Help,” it doesn’t have the glow of being the lead single from Post Malone’s big country pivot and Morgan already has so many other songs circulating – including one directly above “Comin’” (“I’m the Problem,” No. 7). 

Jason Lipshutz: About where I expected. “I Had Some Help” is the obvious analog, and while last year’s smash debuted at No. 1, that song possessed the glow of being Morgan Wallen and Post Malone’s first collaboration, and arrived as Wallen’s first single following his 2023 album One Thing at a Time. “I Ain’t Coming Back” has been preceded by a steady stream of music from both Wallen and Post, which likely blunted some of the immediate excitement around its release — but still, these are two brand-name chart titans, so a top 10 debut seemed all but guaranteed.

Jessica Nicholson: It debuts around where I thought it would. “I Had Some Help” was aided by the buzz of curiosity surrounding not only Post Malone releasing a straight-ahead country album, but also regarding just what a collab between a genre-fluid artist like Post Malone and one of country music’s top-echelon artists would sound like. This time around, fans are more familiar with a Posty-Wallen collab. On the Hot 100, the song is also battling against releases from Kendrick Lamar with SZA, Alex Warren’s hit “Ordinary” and even Wallen’s own title track to his upcoming album.

Andrew Unterberger: Definitely lower. It’s not surprising that it didn’t quite match “I Had Some Help,” but only because that song was an absolute monster right out of the gate, zooming past one of the most packed periods of pop music in recent memory and reigning for six weeks. But this song couldn’t even lap Morgan Wallen’s own “I’m the Problem,” which is hardly the most explosive Wallen hit in recent memory. With that history and the two artists’ combined star power — not to mention its slick sound, big chorus and the built-in Easter tie-in — it’s a slightly underwhelming bow for the duo, for sure.

2. “I Had Some Help,” the previous teamup of Wallen and Post, ended up spending six weeks at No. 1 and topping Billboard’s Songs of the Summer chart. Do you think this song has a chance of growing into a hit near that size, or will it be diminishing returns on the sequel?

Katie Atkinson: Diminishing returns, only because this one just doesn’t have the Song of the Summer potential of “Help.” This is a reliably great Morgan Wallen song, but it’s not the backyard-BBQ-soundtracking party-starter of last summer’s smash-hit duet. If I’m going to listen to some melancholy Morgan, right now I’ve got “Just in Case” on repeat instead.

Kyle Denis: I’m inclined to say the sequel won’t be as big as “Help,” for all the reasons I listed in my previous answer. It really helped that “Help” got so much room to be the primary song for consumers to focus on from both artists. With six songs already circulating from a 37-track album that’s due in a few weeks, there might just be a little bit too much Wallen in the air.

Jason Lipshutz: I think everybody involved would be totally fine with slightly diminished returns for one of the biggest hits of last year. “I Had Some Help” caught lightning in a bottle, as an immediate and immensely enjoyable sing-along that crystallized Posty’s newfound foray into country music. “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” follows a similar formula but with a slightly less catchy hook, and it’s been delivered a few months after we’ve received a full Post Malone country album and at a time where we’ve gotten a new Wallen single every few weeks. The circumstances of “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” will blunt its commercial impact to some degree, but as a sequel to a singular hit, it’s pretty clearly a success already. 

Jessica Nicholson: “I Had Some Help” had an instantly catchy groove, and the kind of post-breakup, pushback defiance fans love to hear in a breakup song. “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” shares much of that defiance, but in a slightly quieter, less-summertime-vibe way. It will be difficult to surpass the chart domination of “I Had Some Help,” especially given that “I Ain’t Comin’ Back” didn’t debut at No. 1 as its predecessor did, but fans have proven they are clamoring for any new music from Wallen, and that they loved Post’s country foray. Plus, with both Post Malone and Morgan Wallen being on the road this summer, that will keep the fans hearing this song through the summer months (assuming it makes it into their respective setlists), so it is possible that the song could gain greater strength.

Andrew Unterberger: I wouldn’t be surprised if it grows a little from here — radio’s gonna sink its teeth all the way into this thing, and the warm-weather months will undoubtedly be kind to it — but it seems pretty unlikely that it’ll grow into “I Had Some More Help.” (Particularly with all the competition it has from other recent Wallen releases, an already-crowded field which is about to quintuple in size with the release of the full I’m the Problem.) And that’s fine. Most sequels don’t quite live up their originals.

3. Wallen has released a steady stream of new songs in the run-up to his upcoming I’m the Problem album. Do you think this strategy is proving effective for promoting the new set, or is the volume getting to be too much?

Katie Atkinson: Considering it’s his record-extending fifth top 10 on the Hot 100 preceding the new album, I’d say he’s on to something. Not to mention, there are 37 songs on the standard release of I’m the Problem, so it’s not like he’s giving the whole album away ahead of time. Releasing seven total advance tracks out of 37 is like putting out two or three singles from a 13-track album, percentage-wise.

Kyle Denis: Part of me feels like it’s getting to be too much – and I think that’s evidenced by “Comin’” debuting lower than all five I’m the Problem singles that preceded it, despite being the only one to feature another artist. He could do with letting the singles breathe for a bit, especially with so much more music coming in such a short span of time.  

Jason Lipshutz: It depends on what the goal is, right? If Wallen is aiming for another long-lasting No. 1 smash along the lines of “Last Night” or “I Had Some Help,” then this deluge of new singles has not been as effective as releasing one focus track and placing the country superstar’s entire weight behind it. Yet if the mission is to make Wallen even more ubiquitous — constantly near the top of New Music Friday, always with multiple songs lingering around the top of the Hot 100, with plenty of headlines and new fodder for country radio — then this rollout has largely been a win for him. And considering that his new 37-song album arrives in a few weeks, this current moment might just be the tip of the iceberg.

Jessica Nicholson: Given today’s more-is-more streaming environment, it feels like an effective strategy. Morgan’s album will encompass 37 songs, so releasing seven of those songs (so far) amounts to approximately 19% of those songs being released ahead of time, so there will still be plenty of new music to dig into the moment the full album releases.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s a good short-term strategy that I do worry will have deleterious long-term effects. Undoubtedly this will all lead to a mighty first-week bow for I’m the Problem, and will confirm Wallen as the most dominant, ubiquitous country star of his generation — but it does feel like, after five years of near-continuous rising, the excitement with him as an artist and hitmaker is beginning to level off. But even in a worst-case scenario for him, it’ll be a while before it starts to really recede, and he’ll probably break a bunch more charts records in the meantime.

4. Post Malone has revealed that a second country album is in the works. Are you optimistic that the album will be able to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, or would he have been better off leaving his country detour as a one-and-done?

Katie Atkinson: I’m very optimistic. I’m looking forward to what Posty can do standing on his own two feet, without 15 duets pairing him up with the biggest names in country on this one. If the F-1-ending solo highlight “Yours” — which finds Post sweetly singing about his daughter’s future husband — is any indication, he could have a seriously long future in this genre. Might be time for Posty to check out some real estate in Nashville.

Kyle Denis: I think Post has definitely been embraced by country listeners, and he’ll continue to strengthen that base with his just-launched Big Ass Stadium Tour. I think without novelty on his side, it will be a bit harder to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, but it’s not entirely impossible. I think there’s a path for the album to be a success in its own right if he focuses on solo singles this time around. 

Jason Lipshutz: F-1 Trillion was such a profound success that I’m not surprised that Posty is hitching a ride back to Nashville for its follow-up. Country sounded like a natural fit for an artist who broke through in the hip-hop world, and considering how often those sounds are intermingling on the charts these days, the transition hasn’t sounded as forced as it might have during a different musical era. I don’t think there’s any chance that Post Malone remains a country artist for the rest of his career, but right now, he’s in a good groove, and he should continue exploring.

Jessica Nicholson: It would be hard to repeat the success of F-1 Trillion, unless he makes the next project as collaboration-heavy as F-1 Trillion, as teaming with so many country stars, and getting that co-sign from them, brought in fans of all of those artists. However, critically, many of his solo songs on his extended “Long Bed” version of the album were as good as his collaborative efforts, so it would be a chance to prove his status as a solo country hitmaker. That said, if the goal is entrenching himself into the country genre as an artist who is in it for the long haul, then consistently releasing country projects is an obvious essential step in accomplishing that aim, regardless of whether a new album reaches the all-genre chart pinnacle.

Andrew Unterberger: My guess would be that Post’s F-2 Trillion-type album ends up analogous to mgk’s second pop-punk set Mainstream Sellout — a chart-topping hit that generally does fine, but doesn’t quite generate the hits or the excitement of its predecessor.

5. One Thing at a Time moved 501,000 units in its first week. What’s your (mildly educated) guess for what I’m the Problem will post as its first-week number?

Katie Atkinson: I’m thinking it will be another half a milli. Wallen’s popularity has stayed steady in the last two years, and as evidenced by the top 10 performance of all five pre-release songs, people are still craving new music from him. My educated guess will be 502k just so he can say he bumped it up a step.

Kyle Denis: I’ll say… north of 450k, but it doesn’t surpass 501k.

Jason Lipshutz: 550,000. It’s got 37 tracks, it’s coming out during a relatively sleepy moment for new releases, and did I mention it’s got 37 tracks? The early streaming numbers should help Wallen’s latest secure his biggest debut yet.

Jessica Nicholson: Though this 37-song album barely exceeds the length its predecessor, the 36-track One Thing at a Time, Wallen’s celebrity status seems to have only grown since his last album. This album also includes collabs with Eric Church and Tate McRae, which should further spur fan excitement. I would conservatively estimate the project would come in at around 510,000 in first-week consumption.

Andrew Unterberger: I’ll say 485,000. Not quite the first week of One Thing, but close enough that nobody really tries to read too much into the decrease.