Chart Beat

Music lovers, rejoice: Playboi Carti‘s 30-track opus is officially a hit.
The new set bows atop the Billboard 200 albums chart this week, moving 298,000 first-week units, according to Luminate — almost exactly triple the number posted by the rapper’s prior Billboard 200-topping effort, 2020’s Whole Lotta Red, in its first frame. In addition, the album charts all 30 of its songs on this week’s Billboard Hot 100, led by “Evil J0rdan,” which enters at No. 2, and already marks Carti’s highest-charting hit as the sole lead artist.

What’s most responsible for the star MC’s improved performance? And what other long-awaited hip-hop albums could meet with similarly explosive opening returns? Billboard staffers discuss these questions and more below.

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1. Playboi Carti debuts atop the Billboard 200 with 298,000 units moved of Music in its first week. Is that number higher, lower or about what you would have expected?

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Angel Diaz: I was hearing crazy predictions, like he was going to move 400k the first week, but this number is around what I expected. Carti going No. 1 was no surprise to those who pay attention. 

Carl Lamarre: 298k sounds about right for Carti. Typically, an artist this early into their career can’t afford a five-year layoff. Carti has proven to be the exception, enjoying a torrid features run that has kept his name buzzy in the 2020s rap hierarchy. From Trippie Redd’s “Miss the Rage” to Travis Scott’s “Fe!n” to even Ye’s Hot 100 chart-topper “Carnival,” Carti is a can’t-miss addition every time he pounces on a track. That, plus his rabid fanbase salivating for more solo music, helped him land this incredible feat.

Jason Lipshutz: About what I expected. The follow-up to Whole Lotta Red has been hotly anticipated for years as Playboi Carti has built momentum via guest features and one-off singles. Because of that hype, Music was always going to score one of the biggest debuts of the year when it finally arrived — albeit with enormous streaming totals and no physical releases, which will be coming at a later date. With that in mind, a final figure of 298,000 equivalent album units sounds about right for this Carti project.

Michael Saponara: I’d say slightly under. I probably had him projected for the 300,000 to 350,000 unit range, but still a very solid week to debut at No. 1. Fans have been thirsty for a new Carti album for years, and it paid off in the streaming numbers. 

Andrew Unterberger: I would’ve believed just about anything between 100k and 500k — so 300k is right in the creamy middle there, and totally logical.

2. Though it’s his second No. 1 album, Music debuts with nearly three times the units of his prior chart-topper, 2020’s Whole Lotta Red. What do you think is the biggest reason behind the wildly improved performance?

Angel Diaz: There was a ton of hype around this project, especially since Whole Lotta Red ended up polarizing fans. Whether you liked that album or not, WLR showed that he was willing to take risks and it’s hard to deny its influence in today’s landscape. Carti is the leader of the new school and showed that again with this tape. I expect Music to influence the game in similar ways. He took some big swings and showed his versatility with the R&B-type tracks.

Carl Lamarre: Absence makes the heart grow fonder. As I mentioned in my first answer, a five-year gap between albums typically works for well-established acts with proven track records. Carti’s fandom is otherworldly. After years of flexing his handy work on the features side, he’s reaping the benefits of his fans flocking for new music. Despite his meager output on the solo front, he’s a workhorse on the features side, and the results have been golden, both culturally and chart-wise.

Jason Lipshutz: When Whole Lotta Red was released, Playboi Carti was still a rising hip-hop talent with a squelchy sound and jabber-jawed delivery; now, he’s one of the biggest artists in popular music, responsible for a sub-genre and dozens of rage-rap imitators. The gap between Whole Lotta Red and Music gave Carti time to let his influence marinate across hip-hop, and for anticipation to build for his next project’s eventual release. Music’s first-week numbers were always going to surpass those of Whole Lotta Red’s, and for those paying attention, it’s not remotely surprising that the final tally tripled its predecessor’s debut.

Michael Saponara: Carti became the king of the sub-30-year-old rappers, and the leader of a generation in a lot of ways, between his beat selection, rapping styles and fashion. Whole Lotta Red set the sonic landscape of rap for the early 2020s. But as the feverish demand grew exponentially, the supply wasn’t there. He only released one song to streaming services in the time from WLR to Music. Although, Carti dished out a handful of assists with a high hit rate while stealing the show and dishing metaphors on tracks like Ye’s chart-topping “Carnival,” Future and Metro Boomin’s “Type Shit” and he carried Camila Cabello to the Billboard Hot 100 while veering into pop for “I Luv It.” Even as potential pump-faked release dates came and went, the anticipation for Music never waned. 

Andrew Unterberger: Releasing 30 new tracks after five years in between releases is certainly a good starting point! But really, the answer is that music kinda caught up to Carti — he felt perennially ahead of his time for his first four or five years of recording, and now it seems like the rest of the hip-hop world has met him on his home turf, with Music really reaping the rewards.

3. All 30 of the album’s tracks debut on the Hot 100 this week, led by “Evil J0rdan” at No. 2 and the Weeknd-assisted “Rather Lie” at No. 4. Does one of those seem like it will be the lasting hit from this album, or do you expect one of the lower-charting songs to have longer legs?

Angel Diaz: I think “Rather Lie” is the safe pick here. However, you gotta remember that “Evil J0rdan” was released as a warmup in January of 2024, so I’m curious to see how long it would’ve stayed on the charts had it been released officially. Maybe it’s charting that high because fans have been waiting for it to hit streaming for quite some time now. I’ve certainly added to those numbers, because it’s probably my favorite song on the album. 

Carl Lamarre: I’m happy that “Evil J0rdan” is having a moment, because Carti’s last sustainable hit on his own was probably 2017’s “Magnolia.” It would be great to see this song live in the top 10 for a few months, solidifying his superstardom and hitmaking abilities. And as much as I would love to see “Evil J0rdan” have that extended success, I’d also like to see “Backd00r” flourish and become a runaway hit. It’s a fun record that both the guys and girls can vibe with, and is a favorite among the cluster of collaborations Carti has on this album.

Jason Lipshutz: “Rather Lie” is the one, simply because it’s the track that best crystallizes Playboi Carti’s pop appeal. Songs like “Evil J0rdan,” which finally receives a proper release years after surfacing online, demonstrate the head-banging relentlessness of his style and will continue soundtracking freak-outs both solo and communal, but “Rather Lie” sports a catchy Weeknd hook, reined-in Carti verses and a recognizable verse-chorus structure. Radio will boost “Rather Lie,” and help it endure on the Hot 100 as other Music songs fade off the chart.

Michael Saponara: I think it’s going to be “Rather Lie.” An infectious hook from The Weeknd makes it digestible and can easily be engulfed by radio stations across the country. I expect “Rather Lie” to have legs into the summer, especially with Abel and Carti heading out on a stadium tour together. Don’t count out “Backd00r” either. It didn’t debut in the Hot 100’s top 10, but Kendrick Lamar’s unlikely meshing with Carti’s style shouldn’t go away as K. Dot has made a living on the charts for the better part of the last 12 months. 

Andrew Unterberger: For now, at least, it’s “Evil J0rdan” by default — but I could certainly see this being an album where a track from the back end of the tracklist unexpectedly takes off several months from now, and ends up going so viral that we can’t believe we ever considered anything else Music‘s biggest breakout hit.

4. We’ve seen a number of hip-hop albums in recent years debut with a big first-week number and Hot 100 profile, but outside of Kendrick Lamar’s GNX, most have them have fallen off pretty quickly. Do you expect Music to still be a strong Billboard 200 contender a few weeks or a month from now?

Angel Diaz: Yeah, I expect this tape to have some staying power, especially with the weather getting nicer. We can’t underestimate how much younger rap fans and artists obsess over Carti. He even had Ye crashing out on X, because he was dominating the conversation once he finally dropped. Carti and Kendrick are the two kings of their respective generations.

Carl Lamarre: Music should stay a top 10 threat for a month at least. It’s a colossal return for Carti, who rolled out 30 new songs for fans who haven’t heard from him in half a decade. For some, it’s also a slog, where you’ll need constant replays to digest the project fully. It took me three listens to get through the entire album, maybe because I’m officially an old head. Now, imagine someone half my age who’s one of the Carti Faithful. This album was their Christmas — an extended one at that.

Jason Lipshutz: Yes, because Playboi Carti has leapt into the upper class of hip-hop. Sure, GNX includes multiple surefire hits, but it also helps that Kendrick Lamar is enormous, leading the cultural conversation and compelling a wide swath of listeners to return to his messages. Playboi Carti’s music has a different type of appeal, but he’s grown into a force of nature, with a young fan base hungry to stream 30-song projects full of blunt emotion, screeching production and different vocal contortions. His stature suggests that Music and its biggest hits are going to linger on the charts for a long time.

Michael Saponara: SWAMP IZZO. I just wanted to get that in here somewhere. Don’t expect Music to be going anywhere anytime soon from the charts: All 30 tracks debuted on the Hot 100 and fans are having fun sifting through the album with different sounds and flows grabbing their ears each listen. While Carti gets dinged for a lack of lyrical depth, he doesn’t get enough credit for sonic dexterity. From the rage rap to the 2010s trap, Carti served up a ranging platter showcasing his artistic repertoire across the thrilling 76-minute project. SEEEYUH.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s too big and will post streaming numbers too large for it to just go away anytime soon. But the streaming numbers are already starting to trail off in Music‘s second week — the album absolutely dominated the Apple Music chart during its first couple days of release, but now the only songs left in the top 10 are “J0rdan” and “Lie,” at spots No. 9 and 10, respectively. If the album continues to fade at this rate, and doesn’t generate some kind of late-breaking hit, it could still end up the mid-decade version of Lil Uzi Vert’s Eternal Atake: a set whose remarkable early performance was more about catching up to the artist’s prior popularity, rather than actually taking them to that next level.

5. Carti’s new album was arguably hip-hop’s most-anticipated going into 2025, coming nearly a full half-decade after Red. Who do you think now takes over the mantle of the artist with the most anticipated upcoming album?

Angel Diaz: Drake hasn’t dropped a proper solo album in two years, so I’m going to say him. I mean let’s tell the truth, everyone is waiting for his Blueprint 2 where he addresses this past year. The only other projects that I’m really anticipating are the upcoming Alchemist albums with Yasiin Bey and Erykah Badu.

Carl Lamarre: It’s not that he needs to drop, but I’ll go with Jay mainly because Drake is now standing at his front door, waiting to break his record for the most No. 1 albums by a rapper (14). Also, considering the treacherous bulls–t Jay overcame with the sexual assault allegations — which were dismissed with prejudice in the last few months — I would love to hear where his psyche is now, and his thoughts on the rap scene. It would make for some Grade-A caliber bars.

Jason Lipshutz: Flip one letter, and you’ve got “Cardi.” Even though it’s been seven years since Invasion of Privacy, Cardi B is still capable of ascending to the peak of the Hot 100 and snapping the hip-hop world to attention when she finally unveils a new full-length. The wait continues, but the anticipation has not waned.

Michael Saponara: Either A$AP Rocky with Don’t Be Dumb or Lil Wayne’s Tha Carter VI.

Andrew Unterberger: It’s sorta crazy to think we’ve now gone four years since the last proper J. Cole album, especially since he’s been teasing The Fall Off since the album before that one. Folks will still be excited to hear from Cole when he returns, but he’s got more to prove at this point than he’s had in a long time — and the longer he waits, the more work he’s gonna have to do to make his case.