Chart Beat
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Taylor Swift’s “Cruel Summer” is the full package when it comes to hit songwriting. Every aspect of the song is fully optimized and firing on all cylinders so that it fully connects and resonates with the listener without ever wearing out its welcome.
What follows are a few of the song’s strongest qualities that have contributed to its success.
Notably, the song spends a 10th week at No. 1 on Billboard’s Pop Airplay chart (dated Oct. 21), marking Swift’s first double-digit-week leader on the list. It has reached a No. 3 high on the Billboard Hot 100, having become one of her 42 top 10s on the chart, the most among women. It was originally released on Swift’s 2019 album Lover before Republic Records started promoting it as a single this June.
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Strategically Placed Vocal Hooks
At the heart of “Cruel Summer” are its uniquely delivered and strategically placed vocal hooks that make it an irresistible earworm of a song that keeps the listener engaged from start to finish.
The bookending intro and outro and turnaround feature the vocoder-processed “yeah” hook that serves as an instantly recognizable calling card for the song.
Both verses also feature catchy vocoder-processed vocal hooks, presented in a background manner under Swift’s lead. Together, they create a catchy call-and-response flow while cleverly conveying Swift’s conflicted desire for her love interest.
The chorus features the nonsensical “ooh, whoa-oh” hook, which achieves a few key elements: The creative, melismatic and show-don’t-tell manner in which it’s sung communicates the emotion that Swift feels without the need to outright state it; it foreshadows and subsequently reinforces the summative, “it’s a cruel summer,” song title hook that directly follows; and it showcases Swift’s vocal chops.
Meanwhile, the bridge uniquely features two standout shouted vocal hooks that are primely placed at the end each stanza: “I don’t wanna keep secrets just to keep you,” and the even more stark, “‘I love you’ – ain’t that the worst thing you ever heard?” A testament to the bridge’s overall strength is its interpolation in Olivia Rodrigo’s No. 3 Hot 100 hit from 2021, “Deja Vu,” which resulted in the writers of “Cruel Summer” – Swift, Jack Antonoff and St. Vincent – all receiving writing credits on Rodrigo’s song.
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Intriguing Lyricism
While many of today’s hits pepper in a bit of clever, metaphorical lyricism to make a narrative more engaging, “Cruel Summer” is atypically chock full of it. Every section, save for the action scene in the bridge, features an abundance of intriguing show-don’t-tell writing, as noted above, that delivers the story in a highly compelling and engaging manner.
A prime example is the pre-chorus’ “devils roll the dice, angels roll their eyes” line. Along with conveying Swift’s likely futile gamble on her bad-boy love interest, the astute Swift fan will notice that it also cleverly alludes to a board game featured in the video for Swift’s 2019 hit “Lover.”
However, as shrewd as the song’s lyricism is, it remains easy to grasp and comprehend, which is a testament to Swift’s masterful lyric-writing skills.
Emotional Connection
One of the most important qualities of a hit song is its ability to emotionally impact the listener so that it connects on a profound level and keeps ears coming back for more. One highly effective way of achieving this is through the vocal performance, instruments and lyrics all working in tandem to create a unified expression, a combination known as prosody.
In “Cruel Summer,” prosody is effectively achieved throughout the entire song. For instance, in the first verse, the synth creates a subtle, dark vibe that underscores the problematic love/relationships-themed story. In the chorus, Swift’s soaring, evocative vocals accentuate the passion she feels for her love interest. As for the bridge, the faster-paced vocals and synth pattern work in concert to bolster the anxiety-ridden, action-based lyrics.
David and Yael Penn co-founded Hit Songs Deconstructed. Earlier in October, Hit Songs Deconstructed and fellow song analysis platform MyPart publicly launched launched ChartCipher, a new AI-powered platform analyzing a deeper scope of hit songs, as defined by Billboard’s charts.
10/18/2023
The King of Pop rewrote the record book, but records are made to be broken.
10/18/2023
Billboard‘s data partner Luminate is improving the way it collects and reflects album sales data from independent music retailers. This week, Luminate revealed to all clients that in week 1 of 2024 (the reporting week that begins Dec. 29, 2023), data on physical sales (vinyl, CDs and cassettes) will reflect a direct representation of those […]
Gospel music icon Kirk Franklin earns his 14th No. 1 on Billboard’s Top Gospel Albums chart, as Father’s Day debuts atop the Oct. 21-dated list. In the tracking week dated Oct. 6-12, the set earned 9,000 equivalent album units, with 6,000 in album sales, according to Luminate.
Franklin boasts the most No. 1s on the chart since he led for the first time in December 1993, Kirk Franklin and the Family.
“I can’t explain how it feels after 30 years to still have the beautiful opportunity to do music that pushes people to the greatest love story ever told,” Franklin tells Billboard. “Thank you!”
Father’s Day follows Kingdom Book One, Franklin’s collaboration with the Atlanta-based collective Maverick City Music, which started at its No. 2 peak in July 2022. His last solo set before his new LP, Long Live Love, launched at the apex in June 2019.
Dating to Franklin’s first chart-topper, his 14 No. 1s outpace runner-up Fred Hammond, with 10. CeCe Winans follows with seven. Franklin’s 294 weeks at No. 1 in that nearly 30-year span also mark the most for any act.
The 10-song Father’s Day was recorded amid personal struggle for Franklin, as he dealt with his family history. Notably, the man that he grew up thinking was his father passed away and, shortly after, he discovered his actual biological father through a series of DNA tests. He chronicled those events in the documentary Father’s Day: A Kirk Franklin Story.
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The Father’s Day album includes collaborations with Kelontae Gavin and Maranda Curtis; LeAndria Johnson; Tori Kelly; Jonathan McReynolds and Jekalyn Carr; and Chandler Moore.
The LP’s lead single, “All Things,” led Gospel Airplay for two weeks in September, becoming Franklin’s 10th No. 1 and tying him with Tamela Mann for the most in the chart’s history. On the latest streaming-, airplay- and sales-based Hot Gospel Songs chart, it pushes 7-5 for a new best.
Jekalyn Carr nets her seventh No. 1 on Billboard’s Gospel Airplay list (dated Oct. 21) as “I Believe God” ascends to the summit. The song, which Carr wrote solo, marks her fourth Gospel Airplay leader in succession. It follows “My Portion,” which led for a week in June 2022; “Jehovah Jireh,” which dominated for two […]
Billboard has more than 200 different weekly charts in its menu, encompassing numerous genres and formats.
While established artists often compete for a spot on the Billboard Hot 100 songs chart and Billboard 200 albums ranking, which track the most popular songs and albums of the week, respectively, up-and-coming talents typically start off on genre-specific lists.
Here’s a look at 10 artists who appear on surveys for the first time on the Oct. 21-dated charts.
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Mitch Rowland
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Rowland has already forged a successful musical career, largely behind the scenes, but he’s now officially a Billboard-charting artist with his own solo work thanks to his new album, Come June. Released Oct. 6 on Erskine Records/Giant Music, the set debuts at No. 46 on Top Current Album Sales and No. 81 on Top Album Sales with 2,000 copies sold in its opening week, according to Luminate. The set also helps Rowland debut at No. 20 on the Emerging Artists chart.
Rowland — from Dublin, Ohio — has worked on all three of Harry Styles’ solo LPs, and has served as the touring lead guitarist in Styles’ band on both of his tours: Harry Styles: Live on Tour (2017-18) and Love on Tour (2021-23). Rowland is also credited as a co-songwriter on six Hot 100-charting songs by Styles, including the No. 1 “Watermelon Sugar” and top 10s “Sign of the Times” (No. 4) and “Music for a Sushi Restaurant” (No. 8). “Watermelon Sugar” took home the Grammy for best solo pop performance in 2021, earning Rowland his first-ever trophy. Rowland is gearing up for his solo North American Tour, which kicks off in February.
Dogstar
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The alt-rock trio released its first two full-lengths, Our Little Visionary and Happy Ending, in 1996 and 2000, respectively, but the group scores its first Billboard chart appearance this week with its new comeback third LP, Somewhere Between the Power Lines and Palm Trees. The set, released Oct. 6 via Dillon Street Records, debuts at No. 6 on both Heatseekers Albums and Vinyl Albums, No. 17 on Top Current Album Sales and No. 19 on Top Album Sales with 6,000 copies sold. It also sends the band to No. 5 on Emerging Artists.
The Los Angeles-based group is comprised of Bret Domrose (lead guitar, lead vocals), Robert Mailhouse (drums, vocals) and Keanu Reeves – yes, that one (bass and vocals). In a recent interview with Billboard, Reeves shared that he had been hoping for some time that the band would reunite. “I missed playing together, I missed writing together, I missed doing shows together. It’s something I’ve always missed,” he said. “We came to a spot where we weren’t playing anymore, and I missed it. Once we started to play, and it felt good, and really positive and creative, that’s when it was like, ‘OK, let’s make this happen.’”
In May, the band made its first public performance in 20 years when it played the BottleRock Napa Valley music festival. Since going on hiatus, Reeves starred in numerous box-office hit films, including the John Wick and The Matrix franchises. Before that, he starred in the Bill & Ted trilogy, Point Break and Speed, among many other movies.
Dogstar is currently on its Somewhere Between the Power Lines and Palm Trees Tour, which kicked off in August and runs through December.
Yeule
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The Singaporean artist (real name Nat Ćmiel) arrives on Billboard‘s charts with their third studio album, Softscars. The set, released digitally Sept. 22 (and physically Oct. 6) on Bayonet Records/Ninja Tune, debuts at No. 49 on Top Current Album Sales and No. 88 on Top Album Sales with 2,000 copies sold. The album also drives yeule to a No. 25 debut on the Emerging Artists chart.
Before Softscars, Yeule released their first two LPs, Serotonin II and Glitch Princess, in 2019 and 2022, respectively. They had appeared on one Billboard chart before this week: Serotonin II reached at No. 7 on the Dance/Electronic Album Sales chart (which has since been discontinued) in 2019.
Yeule, whose name is derived from the character Paddra Nsu-Yeul in the Final Fantasy franchise, has a string of tour dates scheduled through the end of the year.
Bryan Fowler
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Fowler has already forged a successful career on Billboard’s charts as a producer and songwriter, but he notches his first chart appearance under an artist billing thanks to his solo single “What I Really Need.” The song, released in February on Harmony Group, debuts at No. 50 on Christian Airplay (up 396% in airplay audience). A version of the song appears on his debut four-track EP Bryan Fowler Song Sessions, released in March. A remix of the song with Essential Worship and a radio edit are also contributing to the track’s airplay ascent.
Fowler has produced 49 Hot Christian Songs-charting hits, including 16 top 10s and three No. 1s: Ryan Stevenson’s “Eye of the Storm,” featuring Gabereal (2016), and TobyMac’s “I Just Need U” (2018) and “The Goodness” (featuring Blessing Offor, 2022). Thanks to his production work, he spent two weeks at No. 1 on the Christian Producers chart in 2020. As a songwriter, he is credited on 52 titles that have charted on Hot Christian Songs, including all three No. 1s that he produced.
Bloody Civilian
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The Nigerian singer-songwriter (real name Emoseh Khamofu) achieves her first Billboard chart hit thanks to her new collaboration with ODUMODUBLVCK and Wale, “Blood on the Dance Floor.” The song, released Oct. 5 on NATIVE Records/Def Jam Recordings, debuts at No. 37 on the Billboard U.S. Afrobeats Songs chart.
Bloody Civilian has released six other original solo songs, all of which are on her EP Anger Management, released June 8. She also landed a track on the Black Panther: Wakanda Forever soundtrack: “Wake Up” (featuring Rema), which she also co-produced with Ludwig Göransson.
Kenya Vaun
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The Philadelphia-based R&B singer is a Billboard-charting artist thanks to her breakthrough single “Summer.” The song, released in May on 300 Entertainment/3EE, debuts at No. 29 on Adult R&B Airplay (up 87% in spins). Vaun has released four additional songs: “Movie Night” (in 2018), “Certified” (2019), “Bout’ Me” (2022) and “Overrated” (February).
Dani Flow
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The Mexican artist hits Billboard’s charts for the first time with his new collaboration with Bellakath, “Perreo Champagne.” The song debuts at No. 133 on the Billboard Global Excl. U.S. chart with 11.4 million streams earned outside the U.S. in the latest tracking week. The song appears on Dani Flow’s new LP Kittyponeo, released Oct. 5. TikTok has been a key factor in the song’s growing profile, as a portion of its audio has been used in over 300,000 clips on the platform to date. (Activity on TikTok is not included in Billboard’s charts except for the newly launched TikTok Billboard Top 50.)
Aaantonio
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The Miami-based singer-songwriter arrives on Billboard’s rankings with his debut single “El Hotel.” The song, which he self-released Sept. 29, debuts at No. 23 on Latin Rhythm Airplay (up 21% in plays). The track is Aaantonio’s only one released on streaming services so far.
Lavaud & Kanis
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Both artists make their first Billboard chart visits, thanks to their team-up with Tiwa Savage, Patoranking and Reekado Banks, “Roll on Me.” The track, released Oct. 6 on Saint & Citizen Music, debuts at No. 4 on World Digital Song Sales and No. 28 on the Billboard U.S. Afrobeats Songs chart.
Lavaud, from Hackney, London, released her debut four-track EP King Vaud in 2021. She previously worked with Reekado Banks on a remix of his song “Rora” in 2019. Haitian-American rapper and singer-songwriter Kanis has released two studio albums: Eneji (2017) and REFLEXION (2021). Earlier this year, she released the songs “Follow Follow” with Nailah Blackman, “Marrakech” (plus two remixes, with Tafia, and Eyo-E and Zama) and “New Bag” with Young Grey, Fetty Wap and PKOLO.
Natalie Grant debuts at No. 1 on Billboard’s Top Christian Albums survey dated Oct. 21 with Seasons. Released on Oct. 6, the set earned 6,000 equivalent album units, with 5,000 in album sales, in the week ending Oct. 12, according to Luminate.
Seasons marks the ninth chart entry for Grant, who hails from Seattle, and her third No. 1 among seven top 10s.
“You Will Be Found,” with Cory Asbury, was the first single from the new set, presenting the pair’s spin on the song from the musical Dear Evan Hansen. Seasons also contains a new version of “Shackles (Praise You),” with Mary Mary, the gospel duo’s signature song that reached No. 28 on the all-genre Billboard Hot 100 in 2000.
Among other collaborations on the LP, Dolly Parton duets on an update of Whitney Houston’s “Step by Step” (written by Annie Lennox) and Tasha Cobbs Leonard joins Grant on “Bridge Over Troubled Water”; the original by Simon & Garfunkel ruled the Hot 100 for six frames in 1970.
“I’m just so grateful to continue doing what I love, and that people continue loving what I do,” Grant tells Billboard. “It’s all just such a gift. And to hear how these reimagined versions of classic songs are so deeply affecting people was the purpose behind this record in the first place. So, I feel very fulfilled today.”
Seasons follows Grant’s No Stranger, which debuted at its No. 2 Top Christian Albums high in October 2020 (with 33,000 first-week units, her best one-week total).
Seasons marks Grant’s first No. 1 since Be One opened in the penthouse in December 2015. She first led with Hurricane, which entered on top in November 2013. She posted her first entry in 2003 when Deeper Life started at its No. 25 high. Awaken followed in 2005, debuting at No. 12 before hitting No. 3, awarding Grant her first top 10.
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“You Will Be Found” reached No. 6 on Christian Airplay in August, becoming Grant’s 11th top 10, and Asbury’s fourth. On the streaming-, airplay- and sales-based Hot Christian Songs ranking, it hit No. 10, marking their ninth and fourth trips to the top 10, respectively.
The ballad also holds at its No. 14 high on the secular Adult Contemporary chart, having become Grant’s first entry since 2006.
After a top 10 finish for his prior release, Colombian artist Venesti captures his first No. 1 on any Billboard chart as his latest single “Umaye” climbs 9-1 to lead the Latin Airplay ranking (dated Oct. 21). The new champ follows the No. 10-peaking “Pura Maldad” on Latin Rhythm Airplay, his highest rank on any […]
Junior H celebrates his highest debut on Billboard’s Top Latin Albums chart with the No. 2 launch of $ad Boyz 4 Life II on the list dated Oct. 21. His eighth studio album starts with 32,000 equivalent album units earned in the U.S. in the week ending Oct. 12, according to Luminate.
Among regional Mexican albums that debuted with a full seven days of tracking in its first charting week, 4 Life II logs one of the top three biggest weeks, by units, of 2023. It also posts the second-highest debut position among regional Mexican titles this year.
The only regional Mexican album to debut on the chart with a bigger unit total, and at a higher rank, in 2023 was Eslabon Armado’s Desvelado, which launched at No. 1 in May with 44,000 units (May 13-dated chart). Peso Pluma’s Génesis is in the mix as well, as it debuted on the chart dated July 1 at No. 35 from only one day of activity, and then soared to No. 1 the following week, after its first week of chart activity, earning 73,000 units (the biggest week ever, by units, for a regional Mexican album).
Of 4 Life II’s 17-track set’s first-week sum, 31,000 units derive from streaming, equaling 43.12 million official on-demand streams of the album’s songs, while the remainder balance is a negligible sum from album sales and track-equivalent album units.
Fifth Top 10: 4 Life II gives Junior H his fifth top 10 on Top Latin Albums, with Atrapado En Un Sueño leading the pack. The corridos tumbados singer-songwriter’s first entry on the Latin albums ranking debuted at No. 5 in April 2020, and became his longest-charting effort, encompassing a 123-week run. Cruisin’ With Junior H followed (No. 10 high, Sept. 2020), $ad Boyz 4 Life (No. 5, Feb. 2021), and Mi Vida En Un Cigarro 2 (No. 4, Feb. 2022).
$ad Boyz 4 Life II, released Oct. 5, is Junior H’s sixth studio album via Rancho Humilde/Warner Latina (two earlier projects were released independently and via the Humilde family only). The set bests its predecessor $ad Boyz 4 Life, which debuted and peaked at No. 5 in 2021.
Second-Most Simultaneous Entries on Hot Latin Songs: As 4 Life II arrives, it sparks nine debuts on Hot Latin Songs. With those new recruits plus two other collabs, Junior H places 12 concurrent songs on the multi-metric tally -which blends airplay, streaming and digital data- the second-most after Peso Pluma, who has placed 12 or more throughout multiple charts in 2023.
Here’s a recap of all 12 of Junior H’s song on this week’s Hot Latin Songs chart:
Position, Title, ArtistsNo. 3, “Lady Gaga,” with Peso Pluma & Gabito BallesterosNo. 12, “Lloro” (debut)No. 14, “Bipolar,” with Peso Pluma & Jasiel NuñezNo. 19, “$ad Boyz II” (debut)No. 26, “Rockstar” (debut)No. 31, “La Cherry” (debut)No. 36, “La Serpiente” (debut)No. 40, “Las Noches” (debut)No. 43, “Tres Botellas” (debut)No. 45, “Miéntele” (debut)No. 47, “Miles de Rosas” (debut)
Beyond its No. 2 debut on Top Latin Albums 4 Life II gives the Sad Boyz movement creator his highest charting title on the overall Billboard 200 among three entries, at No. 14. Plus, it likewise launches at No. 2 on Regional Mexican Albums.
After a series of delays, on Oct. 6, Drake finally returned with his long-awaited eighth official solo studio album (not counting mixtapes, collaborative efforts or “playlists”): the 23-track, 84-minute For All the Dogs.
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Like nearly every other project of Drake’s career, Dogs debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 this week — with 402,000 equivalent album units, almost exactly equal to the 404,000 for his 21 Savage teamup Her Loss last November. The set also charts all 23 of its tracks on the Billboard Hot 100, led by the No. 1-bowing, J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter.” However, despite its commercial success, the set has drawn mostly mediocre reviews from critics (and hip-hop pundits like Joe Budden), and a largely lukewarm online response from fans.
How happy should Drake be with his first-week performance? And will criticism of his music ever actually impact his commercial success? Billboard staffers debate these questions and more below.
1. For All the Dogs debuts with 402,000 first-week units — nearly 200,000 more than 2022’s Honestly Nevermind, over 200,000 fewer than 2021’s Certified Lover Boy, and almost exactly on par with last November’s Her Loss. On a scale from 1-10 — 1 being most disappointed, 10 being most elated — how happy are you with that first-week performance if you’re Drake?
Rania Aniftos: I’m going to say 5? Maybe? I really have no idea, because given how often he releases music, he clearly doesn’t care much about performance numbers anymore — he consistently tops the Billboard 200 no matter what.
Jason Lipshutz: A 7. As he continues to rack up No. 1 singles and albums — stacking his wins to stand alongside the all-time greats — Drake has transcended the need to be concerned that an equivalent album units debut is a little higher or lower than his previous effort. The first-week number for Dogs is a drop-off from that of Certified Lover Boy, but CLB was also his first official album in over three years, and arrived with greater hype — and in any event, the Dogs debut still cleared 400k to rank among the biggest bows of 2023. Drake’s focus should be on chasing chart history instead of first-week performances, but even so, that’s a darn good first-week performance.
Meghan Mahar: A solid 8.5. I would imagine that Drake and his team hope to break records with every album drop, but the fact that he is able to maintain this level of success is unprecedented in rap. Fluctuating performance over the past few years shouldn’t distract us from the fact that this drop was a monumental feat of its own. For All the Dogs outperforming Honestly, Nevermind proves that there is not only still demand for Drake, but a firm belief in him as both an artist and a pop star.
Damien Scott: I’d say I’m at a 7 or an 8. Drake is one of the few artists left who can make pop culture events out of their album releases. Despite how you feel about the qualitative nature of his albums, it’s exciting to know that when he drops a new project, nearly everyone is listening to it at the same time. The pessimistic view is that the monoculture is dead and the splintering of pop culture means we won’t have superstars with big week numbers like this in the future. I’d like to think that’s not the case, but just in case that turns out to be true, I think we should celebrate albums that bring us all together in that way.
Andrew Unterberger: Maybe a 6. It’s a No. 1 and a decisive one, but for a star-studded 23-track set with him as the lone lead to pull up short of last year’s 16-track 21 Savage collab set — more a course-correction following the tepid response to Honestly, Nevermind than a full-on Drake album — I just can’t imagine he’s all the way thrilled about it. Still, who else in hip-hop right now could do 400,000-plus first-week units without even putting out a physical release? Is there anyone?
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2. Drake’s J. Cole-featuring “First Person Shooter” was the best-performing song from the album in its first week, debuting atop the Hot 100 — Drake’s 13th No. 1, tying him with Michael Jackson for the most among male solo artists, and the first of J. Cole’s whole career. Which of the two artists do you think the milestone No. 1 ultimately means more to?
Rania Aniftos: While I want to say J. Cole because it’s about time he topped the Hot 100, I’m going with Drake. It’s yet further validation that the 6 God can do no wrong when it comes to music releases.
Jason Lipshutz: I can’t imagine how gratifying it must be for J. Cole to at long last have his name atop the Hot 100, after more than a decade of occupying a singular lane in popular rap music and getting close to the summit a couple of times. Cole is a superstar regardless of specific chart achievements — and maybe some will place an asterisk next to this one, considering that it’s a guest spot on a Drake song — but he has deserved a No. 1 single for a while, and I’m glad that he finally scored one here.
Meghan Mahar: I firmly believe that this No. 1 means more to J. Cole than Drake. J. Cole has been in the game for almost as long as Drake — he was opening for Jay-Z and Wale back in 2009 and already had 11 Hot 100 top 10’s of his own — so a No. 1 this late into his career is a rare and well-deserved testament to his work ethic. Drake is undoubtedly excited (and vocal on social media) about this achievement but I think he’s been plotting on this achievement for a long time. The truly groundbreaking moment from Drake’s POV is likely breaking Michael Jackson’s record.
Damien Scott: “First Person Shooter” hitting No. 1 likely means more to J. Cole than Drake simply because it’s somehow his first. I say “likely” because, as big as the achievement is, you get the idea that Cole has resigned himself from chasing chart spots. Looking at Drake’s past performance, it was only a matter of time before he tied MJ’s record — and it’s only a matter of time before he surpasses it. So, as good as this song is, if it wasn’t this one, it was going to be another. But for Cole, this song caps off an insane run of incredible guest performances: a run that has made many rethink his ranking within the “Big Three” of rap. In that way, this #1 feels like a coronation of sorts. At the very least, it ups the stakes for his upcoming album, The Fall Off.
Andrew Unterberger: It probably should mean more to J. Cole — finally reaching the top spot after a decade of creeping closer and closer — but it almost certainly means more to Drake, who is as cognizant of his chart achievements as any major pop star in recent memory. (He’s even still smarting about “Sicko Mode” not counting towards his tally!)
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3. While “Shooter” had the strongest debut, it’s already been passed on most streaming services’ daily charts by the Yeat-featuring “IDGAF.” Which do you think will ultimately end up the biggest hit off Dogs — or do you think another cut on the tracklist will ultimately surpass both?
Rania Aniftos: I’m putting my money on “First Person Shooter.” While both songs have a great beat and I can see them being favorites in Drake’s discography in the future, “Shooter” has those classic, viral-worthy lyrics that Drake is so good at. You already know we’re going to see lots of “Who the G.O.A.T.? Who you b–ches really rootin’ for?” Instagram captions over the next few months.
Jason Lipshutz: “IDGAF” is the one: not only has the Yeat collaboration taken off on streaming platforms in a way that indicates a long run in the Hot 100’s upper tier, but the track has effectively burrowed into my skull, that sample of Azimuth’s “The Tunnel” charging into the bleary synths and Yeat’s warbled boasts playing on repeat. As a gaudy, zonked-out showcase for both artists, “IDGAF” is as subtle as a sledgehammer but is undeniable as a headbanger. I will gladly have this song playing too loudly on my morning commute all fall long.
Meghan Mahar: I have a strong feeling that “IDGAF” is going to be the most streamed hit off Dogs, but that “Shooter” will ultimately have the best overall performance and lasting cultural impact. “Shooter” is a special moment for rap fans. Cole says it best: “This s–t like the Super Bowl.” However, Yeat’s fans are extremely passionate about supporting online, especially via streams. “IDGAF” debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Global 200 songs chart, so I think that there’s a clear chance it could rank higher than “Shooter” on next week’s Hot 100.
Damien Scott: After my first run through, I thought “Rich Baby Daddy” was the clear standout single and would be the one to run the score up. It has everything, on paper at least: a rookie of the year candidate, an artist coming off the best year of their career, and a fun faux-Miami bass beat. Maybe if it dropped at the top of summer, it would have fared better, but I think a good video could give it a boost.
Andrew Unterberger: Honestly, the fact that it could be either of these songs and not “Rich Baby Daddy” — the lone song Drake has been involved with in the past two years that absolutely screams HIT SINGLE — shows you just how scrambled the hitmaking system has gotten in the TikTok era, both for better and worse.
4. While Drake’s reception from rap critics and gatekeepers (and even a large percentage of casual fans) seems to be getting worse and worse every year, he’s still yet to see any kind of sustained commercial downturn as a result. What do you think it would take for Drake to actually tumble from his chart perch — or is he essentially there until he doesn’t want to be?
Rania Aniftos: I’m just repeating myself at this point but the numbers don’t lie. With 13 Billboard 200 No. 1s and 13 Hot 100 No. 1s, it really seems like it’s going to take a super weird musical decision on Drake’s part to knock him off his rap throne. He’s not fixing what’s not broken and that keeps working out for him. He still sells out tours, gets impressive numbers and waves to the haters from center stage at the most famous arenas in the world.
Jason Lipshutz: Drake has hinted at taking some time away from the studio after a highly prolific two-year stretch, and if that hiatus lasts multiple years, I do think his commercial standing will be impacted by the time he returns. That speaks less to Drake falling out of touch with popular rap music, and more to the life cycle of any imperial run like the one he is currently on; these streaks of scoring huge singles and albums are simply difficult for any artist to sustain, let alone carry one for over 15 years. All stars begin to dim at some point, and we’ll see if Drake pressing pause will trigger any sort of fade of his blockbuster appeal.
Meghan Mahar: As we can see from him tying Michael Jackson’s record, Drake is more than a rapper: he’s a pop star. He is a cultural barometer of what’s cool in music, fashion, and more. His commercial performance isn’t going to be impacted by critics — and truthfully, I think the back-and-forth that Drake has with critics benefits him in the long run. I think that a true “tumble” would have to be caused by a public sentiment change toward Drake — he would have to be perceived as unlikeable and uncool for people to stop supporting him and I don’t foresee that happening anytime soon.
Damien Scott: No one stays on top forever. That said, if I’m honest, I have no idea what it would take at this point for Drake to not dominate the charts.
Andrew Unterberger: The rap world probably will have to change before Drake does. Hip-hop has been in such commercial stasis so far this decade — there’s plenty of exciting things happening, just not so much that you really see impacting the top of the charts — that Drake has been able to mostly coast along with just minor tweaks (not counting the admirable but not entirely successful left turn of Honestly, Nevermind) to his production and personality. It’s gonna take a massive sea change in the mainstream, one that quickly makes Drake seem like a relic, for his commercial fortunes to be majorly affected.
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5. Let’s say that before his next project, Drake came to you for advice on how to get fans and critics back on his side, without risking an Honestly, Nevermind-like dip in commercial performance. What would you tell him to do?
Rania Aniftos: Is it weird to say that I wouldn’t tell him anything? Who am I to advise a consistent Billboard 200 and Hot 100 chart topper? Despite the Nevermind dip, he clearly did something right with For All the Dogs.
Jason Lipshutz: The reason why Her Loss is one of my favorite Drake projects? He’s rapping his ass off on it — largely to keep pace with 21 Savage, but still, Drake sounds excellent across that album, and I’d love to hear him replicate that approach on a solo effort. Don’t get me wrong, I’d welcome another joint LP with 21 Savage, but I’d tell Drake to listen to Her Loss, absorb how effective his flow sounds, and then chase that flow once again.
Meghan Mahar: For me, there are two main takeaways from the performance of Honestly, Nevermind: first, Drake’s fans will punish him if he deviates too far from the “old Drake” that leans more into his signature melodic rap and hype songs; second, Drake’s albums are most successful when they have more features. Drake’s reign will only end if he consistently disregards these learnings, and it seems like he took both into account when curating Dogs. I would tell him that his fans aren’t ready for him to try to reinvent the wheel, so a new creative direction should still have roots in what’s familiar.
Damien Scott: It’s tough for me to tell someone who sells over 400,000 first week to change anything. But, to answer the question, I’d refer Drake to “Sandra’s Rose,” track 10 on Scorpion. Over Preemo’s expert soul chopping, Drake starts verse two with “N—as want a classic, that’s just 10 of these.” I understand Drake must make music for everyone — he’s a megastar, after all, with fans of all ages, backgrounds, and tastes — but it’s clear he knows what people want. What if Drake co-opted the original plan for Jay-Z’s The Black Album: 12 songs, 12 producers? Drake could work with anyone he wants. It’d be fun to see what happens if he were to focus on just a dozen tracks with the best producers working today.
Andrew Unterberger: How about this: Release an album with singles people actually like. I don’t even necessarily mean a trio of obvious chart-slayers like Scorpion‘s “God’s Plan,” “Nice for What” and “In My Feelings.” Think Nothing Was the Same‘s “Started From the Bottom,” “Hold on, We’re Going Home” and “Worst Behavior” — three totally different singles, working on totally different commercial levels, and largely beloved by fans for totally different reasons. What was the last Drake single that felt (or had an impact) like any of those? Certainly not “Slime You Out” or “Search and Rescue.”